:00:22. > :00:25.Hello, and welcome to Dateline London's look ahead to 2017.
:00:26. > :00:30.Britain will move calmly towards Brexit, the European Union
:00:31. > :00:33.will solve all its problems with migration, unemployment
:00:34. > :00:35.and insolvent banks, Donald Trump will begin a glorious
:00:36. > :00:38.four years as President, the Middle East will finally be
:00:39. > :00:46.Back in the real world, let's hear what our expert panel think.
:00:47. > :00:48.I'm joined by Stryker McGuire of Bloomberg Markets,
:00:49. > :00:51.Abdel Bari Atwan who is a writer and broadcaster on Arab affairs,
:00:52. > :00:56.Agnes Poirier of Marianne, and Steve Richards who is
:00:57. > :01:02.Britain first, to coin a phrase, and we can all predict that Article
:01:03. > :01:04.50 will indeed be invoked by March, beginning the formal process
:01:05. > :01:11.But where will Brexit, and indeed the EU, be by the end of 2017?
:01:12. > :01:12.With political change in France and Italy,
:01:13. > :01:21.I think 2017 will be much more difficult than this artificial
:01:22. > :01:23.period we've been living through prior to the
:01:24. > :01:27.All kinds of things have been read into what has happened
:01:28. > :01:32."The UK economy has been better than expected."
:01:33. > :01:38.And so far, the focus has been on the British position.
:01:39. > :01:46.In 2017, we are going to get real, because we will hear
:01:47. > :01:56.And when that becomes clear, I think the dynamic of the internal
:01:57. > :02:03.politics of the Conservative Party, the position of other MPs
:02:04. > :02:06.in the House of Commons, Scotland, will become 100 times more
:02:07. > :02:14.complicated than the position at the end of 2016.
:02:15. > :02:17.So I think Brexit in 2017 is going to become very,
:02:18. > :02:20.very difficult for Theresa May in particular, and the
:02:21. > :02:27.Can I make a prediction about 2017, which I rarely do, which is that
:02:28. > :02:30.Brexit will be top of the news agenda in Britain, and all
:02:31. > :02:34.It will be one of the things, but the French election
:02:35. > :02:38.The German election in Germany, the Italian banks disaster...
:02:39. > :02:41.It might come a close second, I think, after all the elections
:02:42. > :02:43.taking place in Germany, Italy and France.
:02:44. > :02:45.But I agree with Steve, I think 2016 might have been
:02:46. > :02:54.Hell will break loose in 2017, just because it's going to become
:02:55. > :02:56.real from the end of March, when the famous Article
:02:57. > :03:05.Because, so far, we've been discussing Brexit,
:03:06. > :03:10.but just discussing it to say there's nothing to discuss.
:03:11. > :03:18.Predictions in 2016, except 2017 is the real thing.
:03:19. > :03:20.However, I'm not sure that the shock of reality will do
:03:21. > :03:23.much for the Tories, or for Theresa May,
:03:24. > :03:31.Would you agree that the core of this is not just what political
:03:32. > :03:34.uncertainty there may be in Britain about Scotland, and how
:03:35. > :03:38.But the political uncertainty in Europe is vast, and that the EU
:03:39. > :03:41.itself, never mind Brexit, the EU in a year's time could be
:03:42. > :03:49.On the other hand, the devil is in the detail.
:03:50. > :03:54.If you start looking, which I have done, I urge everyone
:03:55. > :03:57.to look into the details of trade deals.
:03:58. > :04:09.This is what civil servants will do throughout Europe and Britain,
:04:10. > :04:21.Because the EU has to approve every single change of quarter that
:04:22. > :04:25.It looks to me very possible that in two years' time,
:04:26. > :04:27.Britain will have no trade deal or agreement with the EU,
:04:28. > :04:33.and they will be somewhere in the wilderness.
:04:34. > :04:35.Some people think that's actually certain, because you can't negotiate
:04:36. > :04:38.a trade deal with the EU when you are a member of the EU,
:04:39. > :04:42.so you have to be out of it, and it will take two years
:04:43. > :04:46.You can start negotiating a sort of road map, or you can start talks
:04:47. > :04:54.Everything's possible in diplomacy, I suppose.
:04:55. > :04:58.Where do you think we are going to be on Brexit in a year's time,
:04:59. > :05:02.I just think it's going to get worse.
:05:03. > :05:05.We are, as Steve says, we are in this strange
:05:06. > :05:10.period of complacency, even smugness, on the part
:05:11. > :05:13.of Brexiteers, who justifiably point out that many of the Remainers'
:05:14. > :05:14.economic arguments or predictions before June 23rd
:05:15. > :05:24.Which is true, but don't let that deceive you, it will kick in.
:05:25. > :05:38.You even hear it anecdotally, people saying, this is going to be
:05:39. > :05:41.a good Christmas but then we'll have to start tightening our belts.
:05:42. > :05:44.And we are going to get inflation, growth is going to slow.
:05:45. > :05:46.Is it going to go into recession at some point, who knows?
:05:47. > :05:55.I believe 2017 will be the year of the preparation the divorce,
:05:56. > :05:58.and I believe it will be a very painful divorce between
:05:59. > :06:13.The lawyers will come, and it will be very,
:06:14. > :06:20.It wouldn't be an easy landing for Theresa May.
:06:21. > :06:24.It will be a very, very hard time ahead.
:06:25. > :06:29.The people who actually initiated or supported Brexit disappeared.
:06:30. > :06:34.We don't see them any more talking or arguing.
:06:35. > :06:37.So, I think Britain will face huge difficulties to get any sort
:06:38. > :06:43.of privileges from Europe in the coming two years.
:06:44. > :06:49.I think free trade, which Britain is looking for,
:06:50. > :06:55.the deal they are hoping for to compensate for the losses
:06:56. > :06:57.of Brexit, I think it will be extremely difficult for them.
:06:58. > :07:03.Europe are looking for a quick exit of the UK from the EU.
:07:04. > :07:05.Isn't the counterargument to you gloom mongers that at some
:07:06. > :07:11.point reality will indeed set in, and you've got to make it work?
:07:12. > :07:19.Britain isn't going to be towed out into the Atlantic,
:07:20. > :07:22.Europe isn't going to go away, we'll still want to trade with each
:07:23. > :07:24.other, so somehow we've got to reach a deal.
:07:25. > :07:29.And there is another argument which is that the crisis will not be
:07:30. > :07:32.will not be in the UK, but will be in the rest
:07:33. > :07:35.With the security threat which became a huge issue
:07:36. > :07:38.again at the end of 2016, the elections in other countries
:07:39. > :07:42.There's no point for example Theresa May negotiating
:07:43. > :07:45.with President Hollande, we know he will not be there.
:07:46. > :07:51.So it could be that there is a sort of wider identity crisis
:07:52. > :07:56.for the European Union, which overrides Britain,
:07:57. > :07:59.which will be seen as ahead of the times in getting out
:08:00. > :08:04.I think that is unlikely in the sense that in the UK
:08:05. > :08:06.we are always predicting that the European Union in one form
:08:07. > :08:15."The euro can't survive," so far it has, and so on.
:08:16. > :08:18.So I think it's unlikely, but it's possible that the big crisis of 2017
:08:19. > :08:21.is within the European Union, and Britain is just getting
:08:22. > :08:27.on with it on the sidelines, which is a safer place to be.
:08:28. > :08:29.I think it's more likely that the negotiations
:08:30. > :08:31.will be a dominant theme, certainly in Britain,
:08:32. > :08:38.Yeah, and can we add to shift the focus to Britain,
:08:39. > :08:40.I think domestically in Britain, I see the Brexit
:08:41. > :08:46.Because, I've seen it in Britain, Brexit has separated families.
:08:47. > :08:59.Children and parents and grandparents.
:09:00. > :09:01.It's the first time I've seen this, and I've been
:09:02. > :09:05.Also, there is this "whose side are you on?
:09:06. > :09:07.If you don't share my Brexit conviction you are
:09:08. > :09:11.That's what I call Brexit Inquisition, and I think
:09:12. > :09:15.It's not going to be very good for the British people.
:09:16. > :09:16.That's what happened in Scotland as well.
:09:17. > :09:20.A referendum that was meant to solve and resolve an issue,
:09:21. > :09:24.divided families, friends, and didn't resolve it.
:09:25. > :09:27.At New Year's parties you had to be very careful what you said
:09:28. > :09:34.Donald Trump inherits the presidency of the United States,
:09:35. > :09:36.and also a nation in which more voters voted against
:09:37. > :09:38.A nation divided geographically, politically, culturally
:09:39. > :09:41.Can he pull America together in 2017?
:09:42. > :09:45.Will he surprise us by using his entry level
:09:46. > :09:48.position in politics to, as he puts it, "make
:09:49. > :09:53.This is the year, 2017, when the slogans have to become
:09:54. > :09:58.Well, the answer to all those questions is probably "no".
:09:59. > :10:06.But, having said that, you can't make anything great in a year.
:10:07. > :10:09.When did America cease being great, is one of the questions
:10:10. > :10:28.You can't unite a country any year, either.
:10:29. > :10:30.What probably will happen, which is going to appall people
:10:31. > :10:33.who are appalled by Trump, is that for a short period of time,
:10:34. > :10:36.he's going to pour a lot of money into the country.
:10:37. > :10:39.It's going to be at a huge cost later on, but he's going to cut
:10:40. > :10:42.taxes, and he's going to pour $1 trillion at least
:10:43. > :10:54.We see this in other countries as well.
:10:55. > :10:57.So there could be this sort of bubble, and that is going to,
:10:58. > :11:01.again, that will not heal the divisions, however.
:11:02. > :11:04.The people on the other side will say, yes,
:11:05. > :11:06.but what is going to happen in the future?
:11:07. > :11:10.People outside of the United States are really waiting for him to fail.
:11:11. > :11:16.And they are appalled by what is going on.
:11:17. > :11:19.Somebody was telling me yesterday, it looks like Kazakhstan,
:11:20. > :11:21.where you have the President installing his relatives,
:11:22. > :11:23.and his daughter moving into where the First Lady used
:11:24. > :11:31.Billionaires on the Cabinet, where there's never been a billionaire.
:11:32. > :11:33.I thought that was quite striking that there's never been
:11:34. > :11:41.Not that that means anything, but it's interesting.
:11:42. > :11:44.How do you think 2017 could shape up?
:11:45. > :11:48.There are those who think both Houses of Congress are Republican,
:11:49. > :11:51.there's a chance to make a difference on the Supreme
:11:52. > :11:53.Court, and you've got a Republican President.
:11:54. > :11:56.You've got two years, because that's the next mid-term elections.
:11:57. > :11:59.Two years to prove that Republicans running everything can do so to make
:12:00. > :12:00.America great again, whatever that means.
:12:01. > :12:03.Well, great again, I mean, great again is one thing.
:12:04. > :12:06.I agree with you that there might be a temporary economic relief,
:12:07. > :12:13.just because he's going to inject so much money.
:12:14. > :12:24.I think 2016 showed that we all look up to America in some way.
:12:25. > :12:26.We've done that for 200 years, probably.
:12:27. > :12:31.And, this was the end of something, great.
:12:32. > :12:38.So for Trump, I don't think Trump will make America great again.
:12:39. > :12:41.I think "great" to some people implies the role of a superpower.
:12:42. > :12:46.If anything, the United States is turning inwards.
:12:47. > :12:48.Look at enemies who have been made already.
:12:49. > :13:02.How is 2017 being seen in the Middle East in reference
:13:03. > :13:04.to Donald Trump, what difference will he make?
:13:05. > :13:06.I have a cynical feeling that Donald Trump could create another
:13:07. > :13:13.sheikdom in the United States, to be honest.
:13:14. > :13:15.Because if you look at his Cabinet, it is either
:13:16. > :13:19.generals or ex-generals, and billionaires or businessmen.
:13:20. > :13:29.We need just the headgear, that's all!
:13:30. > :13:46.The problem is, we are extremely confused in the Middle East.
:13:47. > :13:53.He signalled to the left and turned to the right.
:13:54. > :13:59.We don't know actually what his intention is.
:14:00. > :14:02.He said he wants to make America great, but he is,
:14:03. > :14:05.if you look at him, he is supporting or following Vladimir Putin's
:14:06. > :14:12.policies on the Middle East and other parts of the world.
:14:13. > :14:17.So where is that independent American President here?
:14:18. > :14:25.The other thing is, I believe this man's foreign policy in particular
:14:26. > :14:27.could be based on business deals, not political deals.
:14:28. > :14:32.He will look at things from the eyes of a businessman,
:14:33. > :14:35.a billionaire, not from the eyes of ordinary people.
:14:36. > :14:43.About the rift in the United States, I believe this rift will widen,
:14:44. > :14:46.I don't believe it will shrink, next year or the year after.
:14:47. > :14:49.I think we are dealing with absolutely new phenomena
:14:50. > :14:57.I am worried, I am worried because I cannot predict.
:14:58. > :15:00.OK, the Middle East is the most unpredictable area in the world,
:15:01. > :15:08.but also, now, America is an unpredictable quantity.
:15:09. > :15:11.What is he going to do with China, to phone the Taiwanese President
:15:12. > :15:14.and talk to him, even before he took office?
:15:15. > :15:27.It's interesting how tentative everybody is about this,
:15:28. > :15:30.we can't be certain about anything in 2017, but we are all very
:15:31. > :15:32.tentative about what a Trump presidency might mean.
:15:33. > :15:37.All the American commentators are very tentative too.
:15:38. > :15:39.Yeah, but I think what is interesting is the only policy
:15:40. > :15:42.he mentioned when he made his brief victory statement the following day
:15:43. > :15:47.after he was elected, was this focus on capital spending.
:15:48. > :15:50.It was the one policy element he included in the speech.
:15:51. > :15:57.This is fascinating on lots of levels.
:15:58. > :16:00.One, if it's true, if he does it, he will be much more Keynesian
:16:01. > :16:02.than the former Shadow Chancellor here, now Britain's
:16:03. > :16:07.In property, he knows about debt financing, doesn't he?
:16:08. > :16:16.The other thing is, you mention this is an all-Republican
:16:17. > :16:19.ticket in Washington, but a lot of the Republicans
:16:20. > :16:25.in Washington are small state, small government Republicans.
:16:26. > :16:31.Here is a President planning to spend big.
:16:32. > :16:33.Although I think there could be tensions within the Republican elite
:16:34. > :16:36.so-called, at a point of their total dominance.
:16:37. > :16:38.I think the other areas are completely uncertain,
:16:39. > :16:46.As you say, they certainly need that investment, as the UK does.
:16:47. > :16:52.Whether he will or not is an interesting question.
:16:53. > :16:54.It's a funny kind of conservatism, isn't it?
:16:55. > :16:58.It's not conservatism as anyone would understand it.
:16:59. > :17:01.Progressive economists have for years been saying "we need
:17:02. > :17:03.stimulus, we need stimulus, we need stimulus."
:17:04. > :17:07.Now, people like Paul Krugman are saying, "well, yes,
:17:08. > :17:13.Trump is talking about stimulus, but it's the wrong kind."
:17:14. > :17:15.That it's not going to translate into stimulus,
:17:16. > :17:17.because tax breaks to really, really wealthy people,
:17:18. > :17:19.that doesn't mean they're going to spend more,
:17:20. > :17:23.it means they're going to save more, which doesn't help.
:17:24. > :17:26.But you know, Marine Le Pen's economic policies is
:17:27. > :17:29.It's about big infrastructure investment.
:17:30. > :17:36.It's Keynesian, but it's also national socialist.
:17:37. > :17:38.But that's why many working people in France will vote
:17:39. > :17:41.for Marine Le Pen, and it's also why people like Marine Le Pen,
:17:42. > :17:43.Donald Trump and others, Ukip in this country,
:17:44. > :17:47.Of course, because the left has stopped doing it.
:17:48. > :17:52.So, somebody's taking the flag of Keynesian policies.
:17:53. > :17:57.When Trump was elected, some people said, he's going to be
:17:58. > :18:10.LAUGHTER In 2017, Bari, the Middle East we touched on,
:18:11. > :18:13.but specifically, we've seen the fall of Aleppo in 2016.
:18:14. > :18:18.In 2017, is the war in Syria going to be over, do you think?
:18:19. > :18:34.The talk about removing him from power is eroding completely now.
:18:35. > :18:37.Turkey, which is a major player in the Middle East, now is actually
:18:38. > :18:42.And also towards Assad in the later stages.
:18:43. > :18:46.They realised that they were wrong in the last six years, fighting,
:18:47. > :18:50.or concentrating on toppling Assad, and it didn't work.
:18:51. > :18:57.So, I can see some sort of formula coming this year, 2017.
:18:58. > :18:59.Yesterday, there was a meeting between the three foreign
:19:00. > :19:09.ministers of Turkey, Russia and Iran.
:19:10. > :19:13.They are working on some sort of formula.
:19:14. > :19:16.This formula is to create a new momentum for negotiations
:19:17. > :19:18.between the Syrian regime and the opposition.
:19:19. > :19:24.So, we can see some sort of stability here.
:19:25. > :19:31.But the problem is, Islamic State, that major danger, is still there.
:19:32. > :19:37.The war against Mosul, to remove them out completely from Mosul,
:19:38. > :19:46.There is also Raqqa, which is still in Syria,
:19:47. > :19:52.and there are plans to evacuate to root out Islamic State from it.
:19:53. > :19:58.Until now, there is no concrete plans to attack them,
:19:59. > :20:07.simply because they proved to be a very, very hard nut to crack.
:20:08. > :20:10.We've got a few minutes left, maybe time for some predictions.
:20:11. > :20:13.Will there be a general election in 2017?
:20:14. > :20:16.Prediction there won't be a general election, Theresa May hasn't got
:20:17. > :20:18.a cause to justify a general election, because Parliament
:20:19. > :20:23.So, she said there won't be, and what she says tends to be pretty
:20:24. > :20:25.close to what she does, so there won't be
:20:26. > :20:32.And it will be a year dominated, as ever, by Europe, and its impact
:20:33. > :20:34.on the internal politics both of the governing Conservative Party,
:20:35. > :20:43.and indeed the confused opposition Labour Party.
:20:44. > :20:49.Her difficulty is she's not ever going to please everybody.
:20:50. > :20:51.There are those who don't want Brexit to happen,
:20:52. > :20:54.there are some who want Brexit to happen tomorrow, and to be
:20:55. > :20:58.Whatever deal she comes up with, she can't keep everybody happy,
:20:59. > :21:01.It's going to be very difficult for her.
:21:02. > :21:03.I had some sympathy for her, because she has inherited
:21:04. > :21:08.an impossible position, whereby exactly that.
:21:09. > :21:10.And it's not just that she can't deliver for the Remainers
:21:11. > :21:13.or the Brexiteers, but there are different forms of Brexit
:21:14. > :21:16.By definition she can't please all of them.
:21:17. > :21:24.Because in the UK, Europe is such an emotive issue,
:21:25. > :21:28.MPs are feeling neurotic and highly charged, a lot of the Brexit MPs
:21:29. > :21:30.fear this dream they've had will be somehow stolen from them
:21:31. > :21:39.And equally, there are Remainers who are so convinced this is heading
:21:40. > :21:44.towards a cliff edge, they wonder why she won't stop it.
:21:45. > :21:47.And somehow she's got to deal with this, and it
:21:48. > :21:51.And in France, how about Francois Fillon becoming
:21:52. > :21:58.But the important thing here is not Francois Fillon,
:21:59. > :22:01.but that Marine Le Pen is not going to become President.
:22:02. > :22:11.Or perhaps a hope first and a prediction, because we know
:22:12. > :22:15.And it's also, I think, the end of the French left,
:22:16. > :22:22.I predict, whoever it is, the French left candidate will clock
:22:23. > :22:28.I think they are in the wilderness for the next-generation.
:22:29. > :22:30.That's true pretty much across western Europe,
:22:31. > :22:37.Now, I don't know where you're going to go with this!
:22:38. > :22:41.LAUGHTER I'm just going to cough and pass it back!
:22:42. > :22:46.What we learned this year is to expect the worst,
:22:47. > :22:55.Next year it's going to be the same thing all over again.
:22:56. > :22:58.In the United States, people are going to just be amazed,
:22:59. > :23:00.I think, over and over again by what's happening in Washington.
:23:01. > :23:03.Outside of the United States, people are going to be
:23:04. > :23:06.looking at what's going on, and they are going to be astounded
:23:07. > :23:10.It's going to be unpredictable, as you said, Bari.
:23:11. > :23:14.That unpredictability is where we are these days.
:23:15. > :23:21.Maybe one thing one can predict is that America
:23:22. > :23:23.has thrived, despite rather than because of anybody
:23:24. > :23:27.In other words, there is a genius within the American people,
:23:28. > :23:29.300 million of them, to get things done.
:23:30. > :23:33.It's not irrelevant, who's running the country,
:23:34. > :23:39.And, at some point, whatever people feel is wrong now,
:23:40. > :23:41.may well be righted in part down the road.
:23:42. > :23:48.I think we are looking well beyond 2017 for that to happen.
:23:49. > :23:56.It's not going to fall apart in 2017.
:23:57. > :24:00.No, although there is a movement to do so!
:24:01. > :24:01.LAUGHTER We will watch that movement.
:24:02. > :24:04.Gavin, I cannot give you an optimistic prediction when it
:24:05. > :24:06.comes to the Middle East, unfortunately.
:24:07. > :24:12.I believe the bloodshed could continue.
:24:13. > :24:15.Now Russia has the upper hand in that part of the world,
:24:16. > :24:21.I believe, personally, that Islamic State, Isis,
:24:22. > :24:26.Unfortunately it is like a wounded tiger, now.
:24:27. > :24:33.They are hitting here, hitting there.
:24:34. > :24:37.They could actually try to prove they are still alive and kicking
:24:38. > :24:39.by carrying out a lot of terrorist attacks,
:24:40. > :24:42.probably in the Middle East itself, but also in Europe.
:24:43. > :24:45.It is a very, very frightening year, when it comes to the Middle East.
:24:46. > :24:48.The problem is it will flow to the sides of the Middle East.
:24:49. > :24:52.But at least in Syria there is some progress, here.
:24:53. > :24:54.It could be we see less bloodshed in Syria in 2017.
:24:55. > :24:57.But, as I said, Islamic State is a monster, a huge monster.
:24:58. > :25:00.They managed for the last two or three years to
:25:01. > :25:11.We can see what happened in Germany, they declared responsibility
:25:12. > :25:14.for the attack on the Christmas market, and also they declared
:25:15. > :25:27.It seems, unfortunately, we will see a lot of terrorist acts
:25:28. > :25:31.somewhere in Europe, but also in the Middle East.
:25:32. > :25:36.It is sad to say that, but this is what we can
:25:37. > :25:39.see, OK, what I can see in my crystal ball.
:25:40. > :25:43.Well, in that case, I think we will leave 2016 behind
:25:44. > :25:47.That's it for Dateline London's look ahead to 2017.
:25:48. > :25:49.You can contact the programme on Twitter @GavinEsler,
:25:50. > :25:53.and you can argue with our guests, if that's the way you want to go.
:25:54. > :25:56.We are back next week at the same time, please make a date
:25:57. > :26:26.The good news is the fog isn't quite as dense, widespread or long-lasting
:26:27. > :26:28.as it has been recently.