:00:28. > :00:36.Welcome to dateline London. The Trump White House is running like
:00:37. > :00:43.clockwork. But how dysfunctional is it? Israel and the Palestinians? A
:00:44. > :00:54.two state solution or no state solution? With us are our guests. US
:00:55. > :00:59.presidency is sometimes have a fairly rocky start. President
:01:00. > :01:06.Harrison died after a month in office. The Trump White House is a
:01:07. > :01:13.total shambles according to the critics. Fights with Congress and
:01:14. > :01:21.rows with the media are common. But a war on the judiciary, judges and
:01:22. > :01:31.the intelligence community is unprecedented, so how good is this
:01:32. > :01:36.well oiled machine? Trump has some supporters outside the mainstream
:01:37. > :01:39.media. The terrifying press conference last week, I don't see
:01:40. > :01:42.how anybody could have any doubt that this man is unfit for the
:01:43. > :01:49.presidency. Question is, what happens now? His vice president and
:01:50. > :01:52.secretary of defence or in Germany. They are saying precisely the
:01:53. > :01:59.opposite of what he's been saying, both about Nato and Russia. Is that
:02:00. > :02:02.men to send out Peshmerga send out a signal that the world should ignore
:02:03. > :02:06.the lunatic we are locking up in the attic in the White House and we are
:02:07. > :02:10.running the government, we are running the foreign policy of the
:02:11. > :02:16.administration. -- is that meant to send out a signal. We have
:02:17. > :02:21.absolutely no doubt Russia is a serious threat to world Law and
:02:22. > :02:25.order, in the Ukraine, etc. Listen to us, not him. That's dangerous. It
:02:26. > :02:36.possible solution to the problem but dangerous. Some world leader Katich
:02:37. > :02:38.trial at his word and decide he is the voice of this administration and
:02:39. > :02:46.therefore go on that premise. -- some world leader could take Trump
:02:47. > :02:50.at his word. Also, what happens when it becomes apparent he's been
:02:51. > :02:53.sidelined? What happens to the rage and frustration he has stoking up
:02:54. > :02:58.against foreigners, Muslims, the world generally. That is a
:02:59. > :03:03.terrifying prospect. He did promise to drain the swamp. It may be that
:03:04. > :03:06.those people in the swamp in Washington have been knowing what to
:03:07. > :03:12.do in recent years even though they've not done it very well.
:03:13. > :03:16.Expertise sometimes comes in for and affairs. In terms of foreign policy,
:03:17. > :03:21.what we've seen with Trump is he's gone back on his own words. He said
:03:22. > :03:28.he possibly would not adhere to the China policy. In terms of your point
:03:29. > :03:32.you made earlier of whether this administration is in a shambles
:03:33. > :03:39.ready, we need to keep in mind a couple of things. One, by any
:03:40. > :03:44.measure, it is in shambles. People have been ousted, people have
:03:45. > :03:49.resigned, some have had to withdraw from their nomination. You had an
:03:50. > :03:53.ill thought out travel ban. It has already been suspended by judiciary,
:03:54. > :03:58.etc. On the one hand you have that reality. But this is a president who
:03:59. > :04:04.is still as he was as a candidate who isn't interested in objective
:04:05. > :04:06.reality. He is trying to create an alternative reality that he is
:04:07. > :04:16.selling to his supporters and using to rally. We saw that. That may be
:04:17. > :04:20.effective. Mainstream media, as we know from polls in America, is less
:04:21. > :04:28.trusted than all editions. It is very calculated. -- less trusted
:04:29. > :04:35.than politicians. Why was this press conference in the afternoon? That is
:04:36. > :04:37.because his base are often people watching television in the
:04:38. > :04:43.afternoons. He's gone over the heads of the media. Then he can berate the
:04:44. > :04:48.media. And then communicate his version of reality to the people who
:04:49. > :04:52.support him. Rachel? I think that's right and we need to be mindful of
:04:53. > :04:59.that. We would be watching that press conference and seeing a
:05:00. > :05:04.complete car crash. And also seeing really dangerous displays of racism
:05:05. > :05:08.and anti-Semitism. And then his reactions to a free press, you
:05:09. > :05:12.know... One of the most important things in an American democracy, the
:05:13. > :05:19.way he has called them out as liars and betrayers of the people, like
:05:20. > :05:23.the judiciary, very dangerous for a democracy to have its elected leader
:05:24. > :05:29.saying things like that. At the same time, look at the reaction in things
:05:30. > :05:37.like Fox News, and it is favourable. Some of it. You are right. Even Fox
:05:38. > :05:44.News has gone off. You are right. But it is about look at the way this
:05:45. > :05:49.man faces down hostile, lying, nagging media who keep hitting him
:05:50. > :05:53.over the head with useless details. And look at how masterful and in
:05:54. > :05:57.control he is. It's interesting, that same audience is attached to
:05:58. > :06:01.the second Amendment of the US Constitution, which is guns, not
:06:02. > :06:05.attached to the first Amendment, the right to freedom of speech and for
:06:06. > :06:12.people in the media to comment on the executive faction. That isn't
:06:13. > :06:17.the frame it is being viewed with. The framers, it is the fault of the
:06:18. > :06:21.media. The media is respecting the first Amendment because it is
:06:22. > :06:26.habitually lying and trying to undermine our democratically elected
:06:27. > :06:32.leader. I think that view clearly has a lot of traction. When the
:06:33. > :06:35.media is thinking about and talking about how to respond to Trump and
:06:36. > :06:40.how to deal with Trump, what do you do when you are basically being
:06:41. > :06:46.controlled in a White House press search? Boycott it, not it live?
:06:47. > :06:48.That has be one of the considerations. Some journalistic
:06:49. > :06:52.organisations are saying we should not bear some of these things live.
:06:53. > :06:59.Because there are so many factual errors. Let me put it to you that
:07:00. > :07:02.the media is an easy target, whereas the court and intelligence services
:07:03. > :07:10.are things that are much more dangerous for any politician. It's
:07:11. > :07:18.true. It is a great danger for any politician to attack the court, the
:07:19. > :07:22.institution. I have agreed with everything that has been set. In
:07:23. > :07:31.Europe you have the same situation. If you see the way Francois Fillon
:07:32. > :07:37.and Marine Le Pen have coped with the problems of illegal funding, of
:07:38. > :07:42.misappropriation of public funds, they have used the same as Donald
:07:43. > :07:46.Trump, going above the media because they are liberal, perceived as
:07:47. > :07:51.liberal, biased, against them. They've gone directly through social
:07:52. > :07:56.media to the people. That has allowed them to get away with, at
:07:57. > :08:01.the moment, with murder. I think Trump is doing the same. Does it
:08:02. > :08:11.work in the same way? Twitter seems to work very well for Trump. It is
:08:12. > :08:19.working for Fillon who has -- it is working for Fillon and Marine Le
:08:20. > :08:24.Pen. It is the journalists and the seasoned politicians, those who are
:08:25. > :08:31.perceived as the establishment, who they are going up against. I'm not
:08:32. > :08:37.sure that this is exactly what resonates with his base, with the
:08:38. > :08:40.people who are trying to give him a pass and support him. You can talk
:08:41. > :08:43.all you want about Russian interference. It's not having any
:08:44. > :08:48.traction with the people coming to his rallies. He will have another
:08:49. > :08:54.huge rally in Florida which is just a continuation of his campaign. Why
:08:55. > :08:58.is that? It is bizarre because it is contradictory to his friendliness to
:08:59. > :09:02.Russia. He won't have a bad word said about Vladimir Putin. The whole
:09:03. > :09:08.thing is incoherent. It is a succession of facile and absurd self
:09:09. > :09:15.contradictions. Yet nobody seems to be worried about that. He has this
:09:16. > :09:19.America first refrain, which he is selling to impoverished parts of the
:09:20. > :09:24.country, which really have been locked into depression for a very
:09:25. > :09:26.long time. The rust belt of America, the terrible unemployment
:09:27. > :09:33.blackspots. He's inciting those people to believe he can cure their
:09:34. > :09:37.problems. Won't that be the test? Whatever people think about the
:09:38. > :09:40.performance we saw this week of the test will be will there be more
:09:41. > :09:46.jobs, are people more better off, will taxes be cut? What will happen
:09:47. > :09:51.when those things fail? Exactly. They might not. He has an
:09:52. > :09:56.administration that doesn't seem to be equipped to deliver those things.
:09:57. > :09:59.Neither does it seem to be the agenda of a free-market
:10:00. > :10:06.fundamentalist to be able to... You know, it isn't their ideology to
:10:07. > :10:10.deliver that. We are talking about infrastructure, as well. What will
:10:11. > :10:15.happen when that fails? Against whom will there be rage? The main
:10:16. > :10:35.problem, a side of the political, is the economic. His electorate were --
:10:36. > :10:38.his electorate will be disappointed. More than anything, control of
:10:39. > :10:44.immigration, protectionism, investment infrastructure, that
:10:45. > :10:48.means inflation. Inflation means higher interest rates. Higher
:10:49. > :10:53.interest rates, it's his electorate that will suffer via mortgages.
:10:54. > :11:00.Everybody describes him as a far right character. The infrastructure
:11:01. > :11:04.spending is straight out of Franklin D Roosevelt's deal. Public spending
:11:05. > :11:11.on a massive scale. Republicans in Congress don't like that. This is a
:11:12. > :11:13.peculiar political package. The post-industrial nature of the
:11:14. > :11:18.economy means he isn't going to be able to restore the heavy duties of
:11:19. > :11:22.manufacturing jobs that have disappeared in the rust belt. These
:11:23. > :11:26.people will be just as unemployed. Unless they are somehow employed on
:11:27. > :11:29.these great infrastructure projects which America cannot afford. Because
:11:30. > :11:35.it would exacerbate the national debt. That common with tax cuts.
:11:36. > :11:45.That leaves the Republicans with a big problem. -- that coming with tax
:11:46. > :11:51.cuts. Do they stick close to him until the next election? They would
:11:52. > :11:55.certainly cut and run if they saw his poll numbers plummet. They are
:11:56. > :11:58.first and foremost politicians. This goes back to a point we were making
:11:59. > :12:03.earlier both about the economics being the important part of the
:12:04. > :12:06.selection. People who were feeling disenfranchised economically and not
:12:07. > :12:10.having their lives improved. Assuming that doesn't happen, it
:12:11. > :12:14.also goes back to the control of the message that Donald Trump has been
:12:15. > :12:17.putting out. Who will they blame? He will claim obstructive Congress.
:12:18. > :12:24.Immediate attacking everything he does. Or a judiciary who are banning
:12:25. > :12:28.the things he does. That will still appeal to his base. They will feel
:12:29. > :12:33.he is being obstructed. It is about keeping that narrative under
:12:34. > :12:38.complete control. The debt cuts, one must wonder, how on earth, if the
:12:39. > :12:41.analysis we've heard around this table is anywhere near correct, how
:12:42. > :12:46.on earth could you lose this election? How can you be such a
:12:47. > :12:48.shambles, and they are. We've heard about the French left, the British
:12:49. > :12:54.left isn't in great shape, either. It isn't just an American problem.
:12:55. > :13:00.It isn't. That is what is staggering about this. The capacity for self
:13:01. > :13:05.reflection amongst, you know, the left, the progressives, in the US,
:13:06. > :13:09.as in the UK and across Europe, seems to be sorely lacking. To be
:13:10. > :13:14.able to look at the situation in which the far right is resurgent and
:13:15. > :13:20.has been enabled. And to not understand what those factors were.
:13:21. > :13:25.And actually how the centre-left was complicit in that. And enabled it
:13:26. > :13:29.and allowed it to happen. The fact that it is not the success of the
:13:30. > :13:33.far right, so much the loss and failure of the left. I find it
:13:34. > :13:39.disturbing that we don't even seem to have started that conversation by
:13:40. > :13:44.which the progressive left looks at how can we learn, and how can we
:13:45. > :13:48.move? There isn't an obvious answer. What happens to the political voice
:13:49. > :13:52.in the post-industrial age of what used to be called the industrial
:13:53. > :13:59.proletariat. What happens to the employee interest when the employer
:14:00. > :14:03.and employee dynamic fails. When fewer people are employed because
:14:04. > :14:06.robots are doing mechanical stuff. Or foreign labour is. This is a
:14:07. > :14:12.crisis for the left because it doesn't speak for anyone.
:14:13. > :14:18.But there are new faces on the left that are doing well. Justin Trudeau
:14:19. > :14:25.is doing well, Macron is doing well. The guy in Germany who might do
:14:26. > :14:29.well. Same in Italy... But they are countries who haven't
:14:30. > :14:34.tried it. We had a great left success in Tony Blair which Cameron
:14:35. > :14:39.emulated. That centrist conspiracy, that runs for a while, and then
:14:40. > :14:44.working class people begin to say what about me? That is the stage the
:14:45. > :14:51.country has to reach. Tony Blair may be coming back in our politics.
:14:52. > :14:57.The majority of the voters today are not working class disenfranchised.
:14:58. > :15:03.The majority of the population are entrepreneurs, and people who are in
:15:04. > :15:11.the white collars. I don't think that's true. I think the reality of
:15:12. > :15:15.what you've been talking about, the thing Tony Blair corroborated as
:15:16. > :15:18.much as Cameron, the economic devastation that it has inflicted on
:15:19. > :15:23.people, it isn't a working-class thing any more. It is actually most
:15:24. > :15:26.people. Most are struggling. The middle class.
:15:27. > :15:32.That is what Theresa May keeps talking about. And Ed Miliband. Not
:15:33. > :15:40.having a solution for that is a failure of centrism. The trial of
:15:41. > :15:46.globalisation is dead. We've done well on globalisation. Now we are in
:15:47. > :15:50.retraction of it. Now we have to find a balance between protectionism
:15:51. > :15:54.and globalisation. The globalisation of labour has been
:15:55. > :16:00.one of the big forces. The idea that there are migrating tribes of
:16:01. > :16:03.particularly young people who can move across borders, take
:16:04. > :16:07.unemployment, it is the stable populations that want to buy homes,
:16:08. > :16:10.raise families, live in the traditional way, who feel they are
:16:11. > :16:18.being pushed out by itinerant labour. Just a final point about the
:16:19. > :16:24.Russia question. The Russia question has been nagging for months. Nobody
:16:25. > :16:28.knows quite where this is going. We know there is intelligence in other
:16:29. > :16:31.investigations, the house and Senate intelligence committee, why has this
:16:32. > :16:36.not got more resonance? I think it is divorced from economics.
:16:37. > :16:40.Economics was the key message in the election campaign. Russia, when it
:16:41. > :16:44.was a Cold War threat, it loomed large in people's imaginations in
:16:45. > :16:49.America. It doesn't do the same now. Had you changed this over and said
:16:50. > :16:51.it was China who was hacking into e-mails, China that was influencing
:16:52. > :16:55.the election, I think the reaction would be different. I think you
:16:56. > :17:01.would find people who are now rather passive about, in their response to
:17:02. > :17:04.Russia, saying China, which represents a great economic threat
:17:05. > :17:08.to the US, is interfering in our affairs, it would be a different
:17:09. > :17:12.response and that is part of what is animating this lack of response to
:17:13. > :17:13.the Russian question. Let's move on. Israel and Palestine -
:17:14. > :17:15.and a two state solution involving land for peace -
:17:16. > :17:19.has been the core of the Middle East Now President Trump has floated
:17:20. > :17:22.the idea of a one state solution, and also suggested moving the US
:17:23. > :17:25.embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In Israel a "one state" solution
:17:26. > :17:28.means a Jewish state. To some Palestinians it means
:17:29. > :17:30.a secular state in which Israelis and Palestinians would live
:17:31. > :17:32.side by side. But either way would Palestinians
:17:33. > :17:35.be in the majority - making this, again, no
:17:36. > :17:45.solution after all? You could say it's good to rethink
:17:46. > :17:48.the Middle East peace because after 30 years of talking about two
:17:49. > :17:55.Estates solutions it hasn't gone any. Certainly that's true, it
:17:56. > :18:01.hasn't gone anywhere, and anybody who has spent time in the region
:18:02. > :18:06.will be able to say, look, on the ground, in real terms, because of
:18:07. > :18:10.Israel's settlement expansion, and the way it has expanded into
:18:11. > :18:12.Palestinian land, has made the two state solution impossible.
:18:13. > :18:20.Practically impossible on the ground. 650,000 settlers in the
:18:21. > :18:23.occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. And arranged in a way
:18:24. > :18:29.that makes a continuous Palestinian state just impossible. And a lot of
:18:30. > :18:34.people will say that the two state premise, parameters that have been
:18:35. > :18:37.in operation for these decades in the international community, have
:18:38. > :18:42.given Israel a cover, that they have allowed this expansionist policy to
:18:43. > :18:48.take place under the cover of a supposed attempt to solve the
:18:49. > :18:54.conflict. But on the other hand, when you have a US president, quite
:18:55. > :19:00.clearly walking away from those parameters, then, of course, that's
:19:01. > :19:04.going to enable the far right, the expansionist right, in Israel. And
:19:05. > :19:12.give them permission to be even worse. He did say, Trump did say,
:19:13. > :19:18.look, basically if it's OK with Israel and the Palestinians.
:19:19. > :19:22.Anything you guys want! I'll go along with it. Look at the way that
:19:23. > :19:29.was read. You have the far right celebrating a new era. You have the
:19:30. > :19:33.education Minister under Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government,
:19:34. > :19:41.and also the leader of the right-wing pro-settlement Jewish
:19:42. > :19:45.party. The Israeli flag has been replaced, it would seem. Given the
:19:46. > :19:51.Israeli flag is already waving across Israel we can only assume he
:19:52. > :19:56.meant that about Palestine. And the land marked for a Palestinian state.
:19:57. > :20:04.The fact they have been so enabled and given permission by this is bad.
:20:05. > :20:08.As is the fact that the Palestinians, in a way, have been
:20:09. > :20:12.abandoned. As much as, you know, the occupation and the settlement
:20:13. > :20:16.project was carrying on they at least had some level of diplomatic
:20:17. > :20:20.protection that has now been completely removed. There was a good
:20:21. > :20:23.reason why there was never any resolution of the one state, two
:20:24. > :20:28.state condition, because nobody wanted to try and settle this. It
:20:29. > :20:32.was an insoluble problem. Nobody would be happy with a single
:20:33. > :20:36.solution. That is why what he said was ignorant and absurd. He said
:20:37. > :20:39.I've looked at the one state, the two state, whatever makes you happy,
:20:40. > :20:45.what ever you like I will go along with it. He seems to be unaware of
:20:46. > :20:49.the fact that there is no one solution that satisfies both sides.
:20:50. > :20:56.And to go back to what you said earlier, his own UN on boy has said
:20:57. > :21:03.in contradiction, that the two state solution is the basis. I'm worried
:21:04. > :21:11.about asking this... Has he moved back from the idea of moving
:21:12. > :21:16.embassy? Yes. Today. He didn't understand the complexities
:21:17. > :21:20.involved. The sensitivities. He puts out things that he then has to
:21:21. > :21:25.retract. I think it really puts us in a no solution can. They two state
:21:26. > :21:29.solution in practice it is now impossible. In principle it won't be
:21:30. > :21:38.accepted by either side because it would destroy the Jewish nature.
:21:39. > :21:41.Palestinians will not accept being second-class citizens in a single
:21:42. > :21:45.state. What has definitely changed, and I've talked to a lot of people
:21:46. > :21:50.in the Gulf, there is a new mood because of Iran and there is less,
:21:51. > :21:53.how can one put it, less overt hostility to the Israeli state in
:21:54. > :22:01.some countries than there was before. Clearly Israel has played
:22:02. > :22:08.quite well in order to get rapprochement and with Saudi Arabia.
:22:09. > :22:13.To come back to the one state, one state is impossible because it
:22:14. > :22:17.doesn't work. We have seen it in Yugoslavia, we see today in camera
:22:18. > :22:26.room, you cannot put the people who are so hostile to each other in one
:22:27. > :22:30.state. -- Cameroon. It isn't working. But at least you can say it
:22:31. > :22:35.is containment for the West to have that solution. Even if it doesn't
:22:36. > :22:39.work. We use are priced it came up so early? What tends to happen with
:22:40. > :22:45.American presidencies is they don't do much about the Middle East until
:22:46. > :22:51.the end of their term because they cannot do much. Many around him feel
:22:52. > :22:55.strongly about it. He wanted a great success. He wanted to launch
:22:56. > :22:58.something that would seem to undo previous foreign policy and would
:22:59. > :23:01.produce miraculous result. He doesn't seem to understand why
:23:02. > :23:05.nobody has been able to produce a miraculous result in the past, even
:23:06. > :23:10.with the most painstaking peace negotiations. It is terrifyingly
:23:11. > :23:18.ignorant. A business deal, basically. He thinks it is. That is
:23:19. > :23:24.why he says if you'd two can be happy I will go along with whatever
:23:25. > :23:29.that is. One possible outcome of this is, you know, if the US is
:23:30. > :23:35.going to openly abandon what it has effectively abandoned in practice
:23:36. > :23:39.for the last few decades, ie a commitment to the two state
:23:40. > :23:43.solution, because whatever previous administrations have set in reality
:23:44. > :23:47.Israel has flouted international law with regards to building
:23:48. > :23:52.settlements, and that has been the biggest obstacle to the two state
:23:53. > :23:57.solution. If Israel has abandoned that it might make room for European
:23:58. > :24:00.countries that have for some time been disgruntled with the way the US
:24:01. > :24:06.has handled this process, and have a different take. It might give them
:24:07. > :24:10.come as a bloc, step up and step into a field where the perception is
:24:11. > :24:16.that the US hasn't been the honest broker and the honest mediator. Good
:24:17. > :24:23.news for Janet. I think Trump will now agree with you. It will force
:24:24. > :24:29.the Europeans to go further in integration politically,
:24:30. > :24:37.economically, and thanks to Trump we can face... In the mind of... Janet,
:24:38. > :24:38.Europe will do well, and you will be with the lunatics in the White
:24:39. > :24:49.House. He is encouraging disorder. I think
:24:50. > :24:54.it will actually create rifts in Europe which will be very serious
:24:55. > :24:56.and destructive. Eastern Europe is getting worried about the fact that
:24:57. > :25:04.Western Europe isn't interested in defending them. It depends where you
:25:05. > :25:12.mean, because of Germany. Do you really want to see Germany rearmed?
:25:13. > :25:15.Nato is there at the moment. It has been a funny month, Janet, I
:25:16. > :25:19.wouldn't rule anything out at this stage. Do you actually think that
:25:20. > :25:24.this could make the European Union, Britain aside, when it leaves,
:25:25. > :25:29.stronger? Absolutely. Because for the first time the European Union is
:25:30. > :25:35.to take its destiny. The US is out. Britain will be out. Janet is making
:25:36. > :25:37.the point that they are very disunited anyway. Hungary isn't
:25:38. > :25:43.going in the same direction as France, for example. The threat from
:25:44. > :25:46.Russia is serious for these Eastern European countries.
:25:47. > :25:53.For us what will be important is that politically we have a voice. In
:25:54. > :25:54.the middle East we have a voice. A United voice on trade. That will
:25:55. > :25:57.make Europe a much stronger. Good luck. We will have to leave it
:25:58. > :26:02.there. That's it for Dateline London this
:26:03. > :26:05.week - you can comment on the programme on Twitter
:26:06. > :26:07.@gavinesler and engage We're back next week
:26:08. > :26:10.at the same time. Make a date
:26:11. > :26:12.with Dateline London.