:00:22. > :00:23.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:24. > :00:26.The state we're in - is there a vacuum at the heart
:00:27. > :00:29.How far does the future of the European Union rest
:00:30. > :00:34.And, the fight against the group calling itself Islamic State.
:00:35. > :00:39.My guests today are Agnes Poirier who is UK editor
:00:40. > :00:43.Stryker McGuire of Bloomberg Markets,
:00:44. > :00:46.Mina al Oraibi, the Arab Affairs commentator,
:00:47. > :00:50.and Ned Temko who is an author and journalist.
:00:51. > :00:53.The tradition in Britain is for Opposition parties to do well
:00:54. > :00:56.in by-elections since they can often be used as a protest vote
:00:57. > :01:00.This week, the Conservatives actually won a seat in Copeland held
:01:01. > :01:04.by Labour for several generations and Ukip's leader lost
:01:05. > :01:06.in the seat his party claimed was Britain's Brexit
:01:07. > :01:11.As we move towards Brexit, we clearly have a Government.
:01:12. > :01:19.Do we have anything which looks like an Opposition?
:01:20. > :01:31.Perhaps the Scottish National party? Yes perhaps the unelected House of
:01:32. > :01:35.Lords the short answer, do we have an opposition in the House of
:01:36. > :01:41.Commons is absolutely not. You mentioned by elections. Opposition
:01:42. > :01:46.parties have to work up -- might lose a by-election against a sitting
:01:47. > :01:52.government. It happened once in the early 1980s but Labour was splitting
:01:53. > :01:57.at the time. It went so far to the left it became serially unelectable,
:01:58. > :02:02.but the last real loss by an opposition party was in the 1960s.
:02:03. > :02:10.The last time Labour lost that particular seat was in the 1930s so
:02:11. > :02:16.it's a huge deal. It's hard to see how Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party
:02:17. > :02:20.leader, can recover, not so much just from the by-election but from
:02:21. > :02:26.the fact that clearly the opinion polls, by-elections and everything
:02:27. > :02:31.shows, that a critical mass of even Labour voters don't see him as my
:02:32. > :02:37.ministerial and that's difficult. And yet the reaction has been that
:02:38. > :02:43.they lost but it could have been lost and steady as she goes. What
:02:44. > :02:48.interesting is that Labour has its own opposition and the reason we had
:02:49. > :02:52.this by-election is that you had to front bench is resigning. It's
:02:53. > :02:56.interesting because we are seeing this serious opposition to Jeremy
:02:57. > :03:02.Corbyn and yet there's real denial amongst those who support him and
:03:03. > :03:07.say he can carry on. Of course, we have you -- Ukip and Lib Dem vying
:03:08. > :03:12.for who is the third party and still third parties here don't impact the
:03:13. > :03:15.big picture politics. But we are seeing the competition between them
:03:16. > :03:21.who are getting a smaller size of the electorate but they are clearly
:03:22. > :03:27.defined and we know what they stand for. Interestingly, both are very
:03:28. > :03:32.much focused on Brexit and the EU. One completely for eight and one
:03:33. > :03:39.completely against it. Absolutely. But for the Conservatives and
:03:40. > :03:44.Labour, it is a constituency that was Labour for 80 odd years because
:03:45. > :03:50.the -- people felt the MP could look out for them in an area that
:03:51. > :03:55.ordinarily Labour looks out for them. What is the defining peak --
:03:56. > :04:02.of each other parties? It's hard say. The Lib Dems and Ukip are
:04:03. > :04:07.ideological your post but there are also differences elsewhere. The Lib
:04:08. > :04:12.Dems are gaining support. Anecdotally you hear it a lot
:04:13. > :04:17.largely because of what's going on. Party-macro is in serious trouble,
:04:18. > :04:21.really serious trouble. Paul Nuttall, their leader, fought a
:04:22. > :04:24.pretty disastrous campaign in a seat he clearly thought they should win
:04:25. > :04:31.and so did party workers because they put in a lot of effort but the
:04:32. > :04:34.party was shambolic. It must have been cringe-making to have been
:04:35. > :04:39.around him when all this was going on. It was appalling. Here's another
:04:40. > :04:45.leader who presumably will survive just because they've had such
:04:46. > :04:52.trouble finding a successor. Maybe he and Jeremy Corbyn could swap?
:04:53. > :04:54.Where do you see this? You could say the Conservatives have their
:04:55. > :04:59.opposition within their own ranks also although it is more quiet and
:05:00. > :05:07.subtle than it has been in the Labour Party. Theresa may has a
:05:08. > :05:13.boulevard in front of her, no opposition. When you listen to her
:05:14. > :05:18.she is now the workers party. She said this weekend we are the party
:05:19. > :05:23.of the workers. But you tend to leave her and that is to her credit
:05:24. > :05:30.on that level. It is the nuclear industry that did it to her credit.
:05:31. > :05:33.But that is also happening in France because there's no opposition. The
:05:34. > :05:42.French left is in disarray in the same way as it is here. Not to
:05:43. > :05:50.mention the American left. Some things must or something had to give
:05:51. > :05:53.and that is the rise of the centrist party, the split of labour and the
:05:54. > :06:00.Socialist party in France. Something win happen because it cannot go on
:06:01. > :06:04.like this. The reason she has a boulevard now is that she can go on
:06:05. > :06:09.sometimes in a new thing Brexit means Brexit because it hasn't
:06:10. > :06:16.happened yet. The other issue that has yet to drop is what happens when
:06:17. > :06:20.article 50 is triggered, when some of the real-life effects begin to
:06:21. > :06:24.take hold? That is when, particularly inside the Tory party,
:06:25. > :06:30.it will be worth watching. You need somebody to take advantage
:06:31. > :06:33.of that, don't you? You do and she may start considering an early
:06:34. > :06:39.election now because the momentum that she has at the moment she won't
:06:40. > :06:44.keep when Article 50 is triggered, we assume. So now 's the time to
:06:45. > :06:50.consider calling an early election. When could you ever say that a
:06:51. > :06:55.Conservative Prime Minister's popularity rose a further north you
:06:56. > :07:02.go until you reach Scotland? That is remarkable. Copeland is the North
:07:03. > :07:09.and Labour and the North... But do you think that, into this vacuum,
:07:10. > :07:14.Tony Blair could come back? David Miliband? A good question because,
:07:15. > :07:20.of course, Tony Blair is the man that the British love to hate but he
:07:21. > :07:24.was the only sense voice. That was a week ago when he talked about
:07:25. > :07:31.Europe. Not everybody thinks that, I should say. Even people who hate him
:07:32. > :07:37.could thing, I agree with every word. He made the broader argument
:07:38. > :07:45.that it isn't just about Brexit. In other words, we see Trap and Brexit
:07:46. > :07:52.and he was arguing for a reconstitution of the centre-left or
:07:53. > :08:00.centre-right coalition -- Trump. It could steal it a reasonable path.
:08:01. > :08:04.For example, David Miliband. Someone who has been in British politics,
:08:05. > :08:10.but he was associated with or tarnished by the Tony Blair years
:08:11. > :08:15.and that's the challenge. He was part of the Tony Blair thing. And
:08:16. > :08:20.that's never going to go away but the memories will become more fuzzy.
:08:21. > :08:29.It will become an asset at some point, I'm sure of that. He was a
:08:30. > :08:33.relatively independent member of new Labour in that he started as a
:08:34. > :08:37.policy adviser and he always had a mind of its own. The question is,
:08:38. > :08:43.does he have the real ambition because that keep junctures during
:08:44. > :08:47.the mess that was Gordon Brown -- Gordon Brown versus Tony Blair,
:08:48. > :08:50.there was an opportunity and even an expectation on some on the Blair
:08:51. > :08:54.side of the party that David Miliband would seize the crown. He
:08:55. > :09:02.always didn't quite want to do it. A certain sense of decency actually.
:09:03. > :09:06.He's not cut-throat enough. He really extracted himself out of that
:09:07. > :09:11.hole rivalry with his brother and so forth and there's a reason he's
:09:12. > :09:15.never ruled it out. I spoke with him a few months ago briefly and asked
:09:16. > :09:22.if he would come back. He said, the time is not really right but you
:09:23. > :09:33.never know. Yesterday he said never say never. But the thing is, several
:09:34. > :09:39.times he's had an opportunity to go for it and he hasn't. So the
:09:40. > :09:44.question is, has he acquired the sort of backbone that you need to
:09:45. > :09:47.really push it to the next level? Especially since the party is in
:09:48. > :09:52.much worse shape than when he ran for leader. Since...
:09:53. > :09:54.Since France and Germany have together been the motors
:09:55. > :09:56.of the European Union, elections in both countries this
:09:57. > :09:59.year will define the future of the EU at its most difficult
:10:00. > :10:00.period, with Britain determined to leave.
:10:01. > :10:03.If, in France, Marine LePen wins, is the Euro and possibly
:10:04. > :10:18.If she wins she will have a vote on the euro. She won't win. I was
:10:19. > :10:30.trying to get beyond that. I might have to eat my words in May, but we
:10:31. > :10:33.have two rounds, OK? That's the big difference with the Brexit vote. She
:10:34. > :10:41.will come first in the first round and then she will most probably lose
:10:42. > :10:46.at the second round. Opposite Emmanuel Macron or opposite film
:10:47. > :10:49.macro. OK, she has the slightest chance of becoming the next
:10:50. > :11:03.president of France if the turnout is really low -- or Francois Fillon.
:11:04. > :11:09.If it is Francois Fillon against Marine Le Pen row, because he is so
:11:10. > :11:14.damaged, and people don't vote -- don't bother to go and vote she has
:11:15. > :11:21.some chance. I know we are not allowed to mention... The president
:11:22. > :11:26.of the United States. We took a vow not to mention him. But I wonder
:11:27. > :11:31.whether the you know who effect will galvanise French voters to realise,
:11:32. > :11:37.do we want that or the equivalent? And whether turnout will be
:11:38. > :11:44.affected? She's had quite a good week, hasn't she? This headscarf
:11:45. > :11:47.business... Appealing to the kind of electric she wishes to appeal to,
:11:48. > :11:52.she couldn't have asked for something better in secular France.
:11:53. > :11:58.That's correct, it's incredible though because she also has
:11:59. > :12:05.financial scandals at her door with exactly the same allegations from
:12:06. > :12:12.Brussels the way she uses her budget to actually hire people and it's
:12:13. > :12:21.been quite dodgy and Brussels is launching enquiries against her.
:12:22. > :12:26.What you mean? In terms of her electorate, she did a clever job in
:12:27. > :12:29.refusing to wear a headscarf? Absolutely and whoever is president
:12:30. > :12:34.of France they had to work with her survey had to receive her although
:12:35. > :12:39.it was complicated for Muslim Lebanese local factions. But
:12:40. > :12:44.regardless what happens in the election, if she doesn't win in
:12:45. > :12:52.France than the EU is safe? That has huge problems. Even if she doesn't
:12:53. > :12:57.get in, the EU will not be able to pull out from this as we have the
:12:58. > :13:00.Greek crisis, we have real troubles in Italy and we don't know what will
:13:01. > :13:08.happen with issues against immigration. Germany? Although of
:13:09. > :13:15.course the election of the new president gave many people some hope
:13:16. > :13:18.of the sort of stature coming in as president and the stature of the
:13:19. > :13:23.Germans at the moment. It looks good but we will have to wait and see.
:13:24. > :13:26.How are the leaders of Europe working together to face of what
:13:27. > :13:30.Brexit will mean for the union when they are also busy with their
:13:31. > :13:37.domestic elections? There's yet another layer to it and cars you now
:13:38. > :13:43.have the external factors of what's happening in the United States and
:13:44. > :13:51.Russia which are really causing the EU, that old spirit the EU in --
:13:52. > :13:57.that created the EU in the first place. It's really hard to imagine
:13:58. > :14:04.the EU falling apart. It's not hard to imagine the euro falling apart,
:14:05. > :14:13.is it? To go back to your question, let's imagine Marine Le Pen becomes
:14:14. > :14:18.France's next president, she is very astute because she's not going to
:14:19. > :14:22.hold a referendum about belonging to the European Union because the
:14:23. > :14:28.French deal too much European to vote to go for that. But what she
:14:29. > :14:33.will do is a referendum on the euro and she's likely to win it. It's
:14:34. > :14:43.very unpopular in France? Unpopular enough to tilt it to 51%. That would
:14:44. > :14:50.be the end. If it was on the euro in a number of European countries with
:14:51. > :14:55.Greece being a possible example...? It's a false referendum because it
:14:56. > :14:58.is a kind of Brexit referendum in the sense that if you have
:14:59. > :15:03.widespread discontent and people can think they can blame economic
:15:04. > :15:09.malaise on the euro and that will fix it, then they will vote against
:15:10. > :15:13.it. But that won't fix it. Then you have to have politicians brave
:15:14. > :15:20.enough to say that but that's rare. Where does this leave Britain? You
:15:21. > :15:24.could say that, in voting for Brexit, the British have decided
:15:25. > :15:27.they will, at some point and whatever the difficulties ahead,
:15:28. > :15:32.leave a union which is failing and which many of the ordinary citizens
:15:33. > :15:38.know it's failing even in countries very strongly in favour of the EU.
:15:39. > :15:42.It's a complicated because to the extent the EU does fail, and I agree
:15:43. > :15:48.that one of the ironies is there are no forces that are bringing it
:15:49. > :15:53.closer together again, one of the reasons will be Brexit. In other
:15:54. > :16:00.words, this big building block that is British membership... And that's
:16:01. > :16:05.an obvious challenge to the EU as an organisation. It's a self-fulfilling
:16:06. > :16:09.prophecy in a way. The irony I still can't get over is that even though
:16:10. > :16:14.the remain campaign was Lansing -- lousy at getting the point across,
:16:15. > :16:18.Britain, of all the EQ member states, had a charmed existence as
:16:19. > :16:27.it wasn't a member of the -- Europe and opted out of everything it
:16:28. > :16:32.didn't like -- it wasn't a member of the euro. It wasn't an encouragement
:16:33. > :16:35.to those who think Brexit is a mistake, but it's easy to see a
:16:36. > :16:37.scenario where both sides suffer equally.
:16:38. > :16:40.After past humiliations at the hands of the group called Islamic State,
:16:41. > :16:43.Iraqi government forces have begun to reverse the tide in Mosul
:16:44. > :16:45.and elsewhere while in Syria IS is squeezed between government
:16:46. > :16:48.How much support should the United States, Britain
:16:49. > :17:03.In Iraq, the Iraqi army has been retrained and seems to have a new
:17:04. > :17:09.spirit. It's also important to remember that when Mosul held to
:17:10. > :17:14.ISIS it was because army generals were giving -- given the order to
:17:15. > :17:18.withdraw. There is a myth that the army was in disarray and every
:17:19. > :17:23.change them and two and a half years later they've come back. Yes, there
:17:24. > :17:29.has been training and effort but at the heart of it is the political
:17:30. > :17:33.decision. The political decision to leave most sold to ISIS break
:17:34. > :17:40.something significant in Iraq. The loss and huge humanitarian suffering
:17:41. > :17:45.and amused -- the mosaic in terms of different ethnicities and religion
:17:46. > :17:50.who live together well, at the moment that will need to be
:17:51. > :17:54.reconstructed -- religions. The Iraqi army going back is our hope
:17:55. > :17:59.and opportunity to try to rebuild that and having belief in the Iraqi
:18:00. > :18:05.state. Having said that, on those heels are some of the mobilisation
:18:06. > :18:10.units which are the volunteer forces that were put together to fight ISIS
:18:11. > :18:15.who are sectarian in large part, but not all of them. How Iraq will
:18:16. > :18:20.figure out dealing at -- dealing with all of these groups when ISIS
:18:21. > :18:25.is defeated is hugely significant because if we have groups who are
:18:26. > :18:32.armed who's someone to turn into political parties, like Hezbollah in
:18:33. > :18:35.Lebanon, then that could spell a disastrous period for Iraq going
:18:36. > :18:41.forward. Then you have the coalition led by the United States with sub
:18:42. > :18:47.port from some Arab countries and Britain and that significant because
:18:48. > :18:51.then we had to say, ideological league, with fighting ISIS but Iran
:18:52. > :18:55.is saying we are part of the coalition. In real allergy, they
:18:56. > :19:02.support some of the sectarian groups that leads to this publication. The
:19:03. > :19:07.point I am trying to make is, let's not take it so clear that acronym is
:19:08. > :19:10.bad and everyone else is good. Unfortunately, there are those in
:19:11. > :19:17.power in Washington and other places who think it could be pushed that
:19:18. > :19:25.much. However, part of the job administration is well aware of this
:19:26. > :19:30.and if there is any... They know Iraq inherently well. Syria is
:19:31. > :19:37.different. The fact that Iraq has used its F or is to strike inside of
:19:38. > :19:39.Syria is a huge development. Baghdad, Moscow, Teheran, Damascus
:19:40. > :19:53.together came and agreed on that strike. I agree with her! I know you
:19:54. > :19:56.do. The point for those of us outside is, however it is dressed up
:19:57. > :20:02.by some political leaders on different sides of the Atlantic,
:20:03. > :20:08.there are no good guys and bad guys. In Syria what we are seeing is that
:20:09. > :20:14.you now have Al-Qaeda related groups pushing out some of the so-called
:20:15. > :20:20.moderate opposition and I will make one prediction here. The person we
:20:21. > :20:27.can't talk about, yesterday, President Trump I think said that
:20:28. > :20:31.the American military was going to obliterate ISIS. I do predict he
:20:32. > :20:36.will claim to have a better rate it ISIS, but it's no easier than it was
:20:37. > :20:42.six months ago. In some ways it's more complicated because it requires
:20:43. > :20:47.an engagement that he is very wary of. Luckily, as you say, people like
:20:48. > :20:52.the new national security adviser not only has knowledge of the Middle
:20:53. > :20:58.East but has a nuanced knowledge of it so it's interesting that he,
:20:59. > :21:05.unlike Trump, says don't refer to is Lambie terrorism. Separate those. It
:21:06. > :21:10.was an interesting point. The Kurds are doing a lot of fighting so give
:21:11. > :21:19.guns to the Kurds? Hold on, Turkey is a native Ali -- Alliant doesn't
:21:20. > :21:25.like it so it's complicated. It is and also it's wonderful to hear
:21:26. > :21:34.about ISIS losing battles and losing ground, but you hear about them
:21:35. > :21:42.using drones and making a lot of casualties on the ground. Also, at
:21:43. > :21:45.the same time, you know they are going to concentrate their
:21:46. > :21:51.intelligence in spreading terror in Europe. This is what they are very
:21:52. > :21:56.good at doing. It doesn't take many people to be able to cause a great
:21:57. > :22:04.deal of damage, as we know in fans. And in Belgium, some vulnerabilities
:22:05. > :22:08.exist with fighters who have dual nationality, for existence. Recently
:22:09. > :22:15.there were those sentence -- centres and you have them in the UK, of day
:22:16. > :22:22.radicalisation. In Rome -- in France, there were reports it didn't
:22:23. > :22:26.work. War is also in the mind. You can't declare victory on that. The
:22:27. > :22:30.idea that anything could happen quickly is out of the question.
:22:31. > :22:35.There is no short-term. You just take Iraq and you've had the Iran
:22:36. > :22:43.and Iraq war. You had the revolution. You had that war and the
:22:44. > :22:51.first Gulf War, the invasion in 2003. Now it's 2017. This is not
:22:52. > :23:02.going be solved overnight. The first Gulf War was in 1919. Exactly. And
:23:03. > :23:05.you have two generations there. There are 140,000 children inside
:23:06. > :23:10.Mosul and in western Mosul they are under siege. The idea that no food
:23:11. > :23:15.or medical substance is coming in... Unless they are given something to
:23:16. > :23:19.look forward to and they feel the world has looked out for them, what
:23:20. > :23:25.impact will it have on these people. Because of the risk some Iran as
:23:26. > :23:30.seen in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, there is a new diplomacy going on
:23:31. > :23:36.and it's interesting. Donald Trump has reflected that in some ways.
:23:37. > :23:46.Very significantly, the Saudi Foreign Minister in Baghdad, that
:23:47. > :23:49.development is of huge consequences for inter-Arab relations but there
:23:50. > :23:53.have been some developments. With the new Lebanese government and the
:23:54. > :23:58.fact the Lebanese president who is seen as an ally of Iran is seen in
:23:59. > :24:01.all the Arab capitals. There are overtures to try to bring back some
:24:02. > :24:07.Arab countries who felt that Iran was a better part -- partner and
:24:08. > :24:11.they're trying to change that. The other Iraq was able work against
:24:12. > :24:17.Iran is how it was seen in many countries. And over a million people
:24:18. > :24:23.died in the Iran/ Iraq war. Iran always paid the highest price.
:24:24. > :24:31.Benjamin Netanyahu is a player, too? He would like to be. I think he
:24:32. > :24:36.overstates, as does Trump, the likelihood that any Arab coalition
:24:37. > :24:40.or Saudi government is going to meaningfully invite Israel or the US
:24:41. > :24:47.into this kind of grand coalition if there is no at least attempt at
:24:48. > :24:54.progress to rein in settlements, get some sort of political resolution in
:24:55. > :25:01.the Israeli/ Palestinian issue. No Arab leader will a bad -- abandon
:25:02. > :25:05.the Palestinians, will they? That part of American diplomacy has got
:25:06. > :25:08.very interesting this past week. The comments of the National Security
:25:09. > :25:14.adviser and the sophistication of them was interesting. Yes, and what
:25:15. > :25:21.you don't know is the dynamics of the executive branch have -- are
:25:22. > :25:27.crazy. You don't know from day to day who is really running things and
:25:28. > :25:32.how it's being run. Yes, there are some smart people, some supposedly
:25:33. > :25:39.strong people who have not been politically deeply tied to Trump,
:25:40. > :25:48.like the Secretary of State. This reminds me so much of back in 2002
:25:49. > :25:50.and 2003, the State Department seems to be totally sidelined. That's it
:25:51. > :25:52.I'm afraid. You can comment on the programme on
:25:53. > :25:55.Twitter and engage with our guests. We will be back next
:25:56. > :25:59.week at the same time.