:00:22. > :00:23.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:24. > :00:29.Is the United Kingdom's only land border with the Republic of Ireland
:00:30. > :00:33.And Donald Trump says the US economy is booming,
:00:34. > :00:36.but what about those contacts with Russia?
:00:37. > :00:38.My guests today are Brian O'Connell, who is an Irish
:00:39. > :00:45.Eunice Goes, who is a Portuguese author and journalist.
:00:46. > :00:51.Adam Raphael who is a British political commentator.
:00:52. > :00:54.Brexit first and the House of Lords is very exercised about EU
:00:55. > :00:56.residents in Britain and trying to make sure they continue
:00:57. > :01:00.Is this a bit of humanitarian good sense or an attempt to throw
:01:01. > :01:06.a spanner in the works of the government's Brexit plans?
:01:07. > :01:12.There are quite a lot of spammers that lie ahead. You see this as
:01:13. > :01:17.being that or is it trying to do something for people who are
:01:18. > :01:21.resident here? The government has made it quite clear that although
:01:22. > :01:26.this is a negotiating point, people who are already here are going to
:01:27. > :01:30.stay here. My own view is that the Lords would be much better advised
:01:31. > :01:34.to concentrate on the real issue which is Parliamentary consent to
:01:35. > :01:41.whatever final deal berries than this particular point. I personally
:01:42. > :01:45.am not concerned about this. I can understand people who are here in
:01:46. > :01:50.this country, 3 million or whatever, who are anxious about their future
:01:51. > :01:54.would like it resolved. But the Europeans have made it clear they
:01:55. > :02:02.will not do anything until after Brexit
:02:03. > :02:04.negotiations begin. That will be the first item on the agenda, so I do
:02:05. > :02:08.not think it is a substantial issue. I do regard the Parliamentary
:02:09. > :02:13.approval of whatever deal there is as crucial. We can discuss that in a
:02:14. > :02:20.minute because that will be coming up this week, but you could be
:02:21. > :02:24.thrown out. There have been 28% of applications for permanent residence
:02:25. > :02:31.which have been rejected by the Home Office. Some of the dispositions to
:02:32. > :02:35.require permanent residence are in contravention of single market
:02:36. > :02:41.rules. For as long as Britain is a member of the EU, it needs to comply
:02:42. > :02:44.with those rules. There is the requirement of comprehensive health
:02:45. > :02:50.insurance for those citizens not in work or who asked students, but this
:02:51. > :02:56.is a contravention of rules and this is creating panic and anxiety for
:02:57. > :03:00.the over 3 million EU citizens who live, work and have made their lives
:03:01. > :03:04.in the UK. It is an urgent matter and it has also affected the lives
:03:05. > :03:12.of British people who are living in EU countries. I do not know about
:03:13. > :03:16.Portugal, but I know in Spain those British people who live there tend
:03:17. > :03:19.to be older and are often retired, whereas Spanish people in this
:03:20. > :03:27.country tend to be younger people looking for work. Is that the same
:03:28. > :03:31.in Portugal? Yes. Our British people in Portugal being seen as a drain on
:03:32. > :03:38.the health service in particular? There will be for sure those who use
:03:39. > :03:45.more the health care service. They have been given a wonderful tax
:03:46. > :03:49.deal. In a way this is an issue and I am interested in what you are
:03:50. > :03:55.saying, but in a sense it is a very short-term issue because it will be
:03:56. > :03:58.resolved soon as Brexit is declared. The noises coming from the
:03:59. > :04:05.government are not extremely reassuring. I thought the exit bill
:04:06. > :04:11.was going to be the first thing on the agenda. This is the point. It
:04:12. > :04:17.could be another year or so before the fate of EU nationals living in
:04:18. > :04:20.Britain is even touched on. Because of this different relationship with
:04:21. > :04:27.Ireland it does not matter for you, does it? This is the problem, we do
:04:28. > :04:32.not know. As far as I am aware, because of the Common travel area
:04:33. > :04:36.and all kinds of legislative stuff that support that architecture
:04:37. > :04:41.between the two Islands, as far as I am aware it does not apply to Irish
:04:42. > :04:45.people. It is all other EU nationals except Irish people. But it is the
:04:46. > :04:51.doubt. If you come from the EU and doubt. If you come from the EU and
:04:52. > :04:55.you have got children here. Yes, it is the doubt, there are mothers,
:04:56. > :05:02.fathers, sons and daughters and people who work in the NHS that
:05:03. > :05:08.Brexit wants to bolster and every other thing. Any uncertainty is bad
:05:09. > :05:12.for business and it is being used as a bargaining chip, despite the fact
:05:13. > :05:15.Liz Truss will not say it. Adam is right in a way that the really big
:05:16. > :05:20.point is whether the House of commons has a safe or not, or what
:05:21. > :05:25.kind of say, that is the big thing, but this is still quite important.
:05:26. > :05:31.On Tuesday they will be considering that in the House of Lords and we
:05:32. > :05:36.will see what comes of that. But I agree we have done reporting on
:05:37. > :05:40.companies that employ EU migrants and there are a lot of people who
:05:41. > :05:46.feel very insecure and it is affecting their ability to recruit
:05:47. > :05:48.and hire people, particularly in the agricultural sector. The
:05:49. > :05:53.government's position on this is bizarre. They are saying we cannot
:05:54. > :05:57.guarantee the rights of EU nationals to preserve our negotiating
:05:58. > :06:00.position, but do not worry, we will sort it out. That is not very good
:06:01. > :06:07.for people who are living here or married to Brits. I think the Lords'
:06:08. > :06:14.position on it may give cover to some of the Tory rebels to support
:06:15. > :06:17.that measure. It is unclear. The House of Lords may say that the
:06:18. > :06:23.House of commons should have a bigger say in what goes ahead. That
:06:24. > :06:26.is odd as well, isn't it? The fact is the House of Lords knows
:06:27. > :06:29.perfectly well it can only push things so far and then whatever
:06:30. > :06:34.ping-pong develops between the two houses, in the end the House of
:06:35. > :06:38.commons will decide. I would be very surprised if the Tory rebels voted
:06:39. > :06:43.in favour of a House of Lords amendment in this case. In the end
:06:44. > :06:49.of the House of Lords will yield to this particular issue. But the real
:06:50. > :06:56.issue, I am sorry, is Parliamentary voting and on that the vote is much
:06:57. > :06:58.more in doubt. As a former political correspondents of many years
:06:59. > :07:05.standing, what do you make of Labour's position on this? Oh! I
:07:06. > :07:09.wish you had not asked. Labour has not got a position, it does not know
:07:10. > :07:18.which way it is going, left, right or centre. Jeremy Corbyn is very
:07:19. > :07:22.hostile to Europe generally. His party is totally split, his voters
:07:23. > :07:28.are totally split. Frankly, despite Keir Starmer are being rather good
:07:29. > :07:32.for Labour, really know one is paying any attention to what they
:07:33. > :07:36.say because they just do not have a clearly thought out position.
:07:37. > :07:39.The United Kingdom has one land border with another country,
:07:40. > :07:41.the Irish Republic, and for decades that has been a flashpoint
:07:42. > :07:43.with killings and bombings along the rural border lands.
:07:44. > :07:46.This week in a degree of political crisis Northern Ireland voters have
:07:47. > :07:49.been electing members of the Stormont Assembly in Belfast.
:07:50. > :07:50.How shaky is devolved government in Northern Ireland?
:07:51. > :07:57.And where would Brexit leave the island of Ireland?
:07:58. > :08:04.We know Sinn Fein has done very well and the DUP are still the largest
:08:05. > :08:09.party, but it is neck and neck. Where do you see this going? Can
:08:10. > :08:13.there be a new Stormont devolved assembly or direct rule from London
:08:14. > :08:19.which we have not seen for years? Under the rules the parties have
:08:20. > :08:22.about three weeks. There is a discretionary thing the British
:08:23. > :08:25.Government has where they can extend that if they need to. They have
:08:26. > :08:33.three weeks or so to form a government. I think personally, and
:08:34. > :08:38.it is only personal, that the reasons why Sinn Fein brought the
:08:39. > :08:44.executive down in the first place, we do not need to go into the
:08:45. > :08:50.details, but what has happened is Sinn Fein now has a shopping list
:08:51. > :08:55.and at the top of it is a piece of legislation that they want to put
:08:56. > :08:59.through, which puts the Irish language on a par with English in
:09:00. > :09:04.governmental institutions in Northern Ireland. It is a throwback
:09:05. > :09:09.to the St Andrews agreement in 2006. Arlene Foster, the leader of the
:09:10. > :09:12.DUP, the former First Minister, said this is like feeding the crocodile.
:09:13. > :09:18.If you give them something, they want more and more will stop we are
:09:19. > :09:24.not going to do it. It is unlikely she will do it now, following the
:09:25. > :09:32.election, she would not do it beforehand in the first place. As
:09:33. > :09:38.Gerry Adams said in reply to the crocodile thing, see you later,
:09:39. > :09:44.alligator. If you do not feed the crocodile, you get 100 crocodiles!
:09:45. > :09:49.But do you see this because of the demographic changes in Northern
:09:50. > :09:54.Ireland as yet another stepping stone towards potentially a united
:09:55. > :09:59.Ireland? I am not sure it is a stepping stone. There is a mechanism
:10:00. > :10:06.for a border poll which Sinn Fein wanted triggered after the EU
:10:07. > :10:10.referendum result. It is at the discretion of the Secretary of State
:10:11. > :10:14.for Northern Ireland, the British Government said no, we are not going
:10:15. > :10:19.to do that now. It is unlikely they will do it in the foreseeable
:10:20. > :10:24.future, but I think there is a fairly strong chance that they will
:10:25. > :10:27.reintroduce direct rule if they cannot reach agreement in a few
:10:28. > :10:31.weeks. They could also have another election. Which means effectively
:10:32. > :10:40.they will be run by Conservative ministers. Yes, but the important
:10:41. > :10:44.part of this is that just as the article 15 negotiations begin, there
:10:45. > :10:46.is no elected, democratic voice in Northern Ireland discussing the
:10:47. > :10:53.issue that you mentioned at the beginning of the border. This is
:10:54. > :10:58.very complicated, but it is also about the future of the United
:10:59. > :11:01.Kingdom. Scotland is contemplating another independence referendum and
:11:02. > :11:06.we have the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom saying it is a top
:11:07. > :11:10.priority keeping the UK together. It is a challenge for the UK
:11:11. > :11:17.constitutional setup and Brexit's effect on Northern Ireland would be
:11:18. > :11:21.hard in any case, but with an unstable government it is even
:11:22. > :11:26.harder. They are very dependent on EU agricultural subsidies, there are
:11:27. > :11:31.a lot of EU exports from Northern Ireland that are at risk. Now people
:11:32. > :11:36.have talked about they could institute a soft border along the
:11:37. > :11:41.lines of Norway and Sweden. It is not Norway and Sweden. Yes, they are
:11:42. > :11:46.not Norway and Sweden, it is a different situation. How do you see
:11:47. > :11:52.this? The Irish Republic has been a strong supporter of the EU, it is in
:11:53. > :11:57.the EU. It has all worked so far in recent years to bring peace. It has
:11:58. > :12:04.and the Irish government was hoping to convince Theresa May to choose a
:12:05. > :12:10.soft Brexit path. Clearly it has been unsuccessful because Theresa
:12:11. > :12:14.May is going for a hard Brexit and that will have consequences for
:12:15. > :12:18.Northern Ireland. But seriously for Northern Ireland what we are going
:12:19. > :12:25.to see, if there is no agreement in three weeks, or even the four weeks
:12:26. > :12:29.of negotiation, there will be flash points if there is going to be
:12:30. > :12:33.direct rule from London. Sinn Fein already said they do not see the
:12:34. > :12:38.current British Government as a distant, as having a neutral voice,
:12:39. > :12:42.because it has relied on the support of the DUP in the Westminster
:12:43. > :12:46.Parliament. This is the problem, Theresa May wants to be the Prime
:12:47. > :12:52.Minister of the United Kingdom, but as many other Prime Minister 's,
:12:53. > :12:55.they tend to neglect the Celtic Borders. Occasionally there are
:12:56. > :13:02.events and problems and they become quite serious. Where do you see this
:13:03. > :13:06.going? Scotland is also part of this mix. There is something like 25
:13:07. > :13:09.million cross-border movements between North and South in Ireland.
:13:10. > :13:15.There is no way in which you could reinstate that border meaningfully.
:13:16. > :13:19.Frankly, both the European Union and the British Government, and indeed
:13:20. > :13:24.Ireland, is faced by a very difficult problem of how somehow
:13:25. > :13:27.there has to be a fudge on this and an open border of some kind. If
:13:28. > :13:36.there are border controls, they will be in Liverpool with the old status
:13:37. > :13:39.of MI5 and watching people. That will go down well. The
:13:40. > :13:44.practicalities are nightmare and I do not see an easy answer to it and
:13:45. > :13:49.I think Theresa May is fudging it at the moment and pretending it does
:13:50. > :13:55.not exist. You know that words are really important in covering
:13:56. > :13:59.Northern Ireland. When Theresa May said we want as frictionless border
:14:00. > :14:06.as possible, you have to ask what is a frictionless border, a hard
:14:07. > :14:10.border, a soft border? Let's assume, as is looking increasingly likely,
:14:11. > :14:15.there is a hard Brexit, which means Britain is out of the single market
:14:16. > :14:19.and the customs union, relying on world Trade Organisation rules
:14:20. > :14:25.instead of some transitionary deal that they may have done after
:14:26. > :14:29.Article 50. Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland are like that in
:14:30. > :14:35.terms of exports, in terms of business, cultural links and
:14:36. > :14:39.everything. You mentioned agriculture, dairy for example, the
:14:40. > :14:44.milk goes over and back across the border. The milk that goes into our
:14:45. > :14:48.bottle of Bailey's, a former executive of Diageo said to me that
:14:49. > :14:53.milk goes over and across the border five times before it ends up in the
:14:54. > :14:56.bottle after pasteurisation. If you are outside the European customs
:14:57. > :15:01.union you have to check all this stuff and you cannot put up a border
:15:02. > :15:05.post because it will be a target. Even if you put a little camera on a
:15:06. > :15:11.big poll, anyone in Sinn Fein would tell you that will be a target as
:15:12. > :15:15.well. There is no way at the end of two years it will be final. There
:15:16. > :15:22.will be a long period of interim arrangements. I do not know anyone
:15:23. > :15:26.who peers into this complete might can come up with an answer, they
:15:27. > :15:30.will be very clever. If somebody found that there was a frictionless
:15:31. > :15:34.border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic and people who
:15:35. > :15:38.came into the Irish Republic from Poland Portugal could then travel to
:15:39. > :15:44.Northern Ireland and get on the boat to go Liverpool or Stranraer, they
:15:45. > :15:50.might be quite cross. Yes. They would say, what is that doing about
:15:51. > :15:56.migration? It is difficult to see how any of this is going to work. So
:15:57. > :15:59.many other things regarding Brexit and Northern Ireland, it is very
:16:00. > :16:04.difficult to see how it will work, it will be a fudge. I believe the
:16:05. > :16:09.period of negotiation will go further than two years. European
:16:10. > :16:14.Union will have to agree to extend the period of negotiation because I
:16:15. > :16:19.cannot see an two years that all the negotiations will be completed. A
:16:20. > :16:22.final thought on Scotland. The Prime Minister has been in Scotland this
:16:23. > :16:26.week and she has made it clear she wants to keep the UK together. There
:16:27. > :16:30.is a lot of pressure on the First Minister of Scotland to hold another
:16:31. > :16:35.referendum which she may win or lose. How do you see that? You could
:16:36. > :16:38.see the political case for Nicola Sturgeon going ahead for a
:16:39. > :16:44.referendum as quite strong, the economic case more difficult. She
:16:45. > :16:49.may be forced into a referendum. Frankly, the odds of her winning
:16:50. > :16:53.this time are no better this time and possibly worse, given the
:16:54. > :16:59.economic consequences for Scotland. That argument will be run very hard.
:17:00. > :17:04.I think she might try and avoid it. But Scottish politics may drive her
:17:05. > :17:08.into it. She is playing a very difficult game very well. She is
:17:09. > :17:13.very clever and I've rather good political leader, but she is not in
:17:14. > :17:16.an easy situation. I would not like to be in her position deciding
:17:17. > :17:24.whether to have a referendum or not. How United is the United Kingdom?
:17:25. > :17:29.Evolution has created in many ways more of a sense of Scottish
:17:30. > :17:34.identity. You asked about Northern Ireland a minute ago and border
:17:35. > :17:39.polls and so on. I agree that on Scotland it is very difficult and I
:17:40. > :17:44.do not think the numbers add up at the moment. The economic argument is
:17:45. > :17:47.worse now than it was in 2014 because of Brexit. If Nicola
:17:48. > :17:52.Sturgeon wants to call another referendum, she is best to wait
:17:53. > :17:58.until the Article 50 issue is sorted out and do it on whatever economic
:17:59. > :18:02.circumstances prevailed then. But referendums are not easy and they do
:18:03. > :18:05.not produce the right result. In Ireland everybody knows in Lisburn
:18:06. > :18:10.they repeated the process and they got a different answer. Does this
:18:11. > :18:17.not give more justification for Sinn Fein to call a referendum? Sinn Fein
:18:18. > :18:22.will continue to call for a border poll, but it is actually the gift of
:18:23. > :18:27.the British Government. Sinn Fein cannot trigger it themselves. They
:18:28. > :18:32.will certainly call for another referendum, but I suspect that if I
:18:33. > :18:35.had to put money on it that Scotland will be out of the UK
:18:36. > :18:38.before Northern Ireland. Two bits of good news
:18:39. > :18:40.for Donald Trump. His speech to Congress went down
:18:41. > :18:43.well this week and the promise of a very un-conservative Keynesian
:18:44. > :18:46.public spending boom But not so good news: His choice
:18:47. > :18:50.for Attorney General, the man in charge of the Justice Department
:18:51. > :19:06.and hence of the FBI, has had It is quite a big story. It is a
:19:07. > :19:11.huge story. We saw his speech to Congress, he was in control from the
:19:12. > :19:15.teleprompter, but within 24 hours you had this scandal with Jeff
:19:16. > :19:22.Sessions erupting and the chaos and the chaos of the troubled presidency
:19:23. > :19:26.resumed. It is a big deal. It is a big deal that he has recused himself
:19:27. > :19:36.from any investigation into camp's links with Russia during the
:19:37. > :19:42.campaign. But broadly speaking this Russia thing is not going away. If
:19:43. > :19:46.you look at happened with Mike Flynn, the national security
:19:47. > :19:49.adviser, it took several stories and several leaks before he finally went
:19:50. > :19:54.and we understood what really happened with his conversations with
:19:55. > :19:59.the Russian ambassador. What is bizarre is that Jeff Sessions
:20:00. > :20:02.basically lied, or did not remember under oath during his cynic
:20:03. > :20:08.confirmation hearing about whether or not he had had any contact with
:20:09. > :20:12.the Russians during the campaign. He was one of the first senators to
:20:13. > :20:17.come out in support of Donald Trump. He was viewed as a Donald Trump 's
:20:18. > :20:21.so why he would not press the pause button when he got overtures from
:20:22. > :20:27.the Russian ambassador in July when he met him is curious. When he did
:20:28. > :20:31.not admit that under oath is very bizarre. That is probably more of a
:20:32. > :20:37.problem and what they discussed. If you have got nothing to hide, if you
:20:38. > :20:41.are talking about a recipe for a soup or something, you would say you
:20:42. > :20:45.had a couple of conversations and there was no problem. If you do not
:20:46. > :20:51.say, people will find that later. Why did you not mention it? He has
:20:52. > :20:56.raised a lot of suspicions across the party and the press. If we are
:20:57. > :21:02.going to get any answers, it remains to be seen. This information might
:21:03. > :21:04.be very difficult to find. But going back to the initial point, it is
:21:05. > :21:11.incredible we are celebrating the fact that the President's first
:21:12. > :21:16.address to Congress was without accident, he could be the
:21:17. > :21:19.teleprompter without shouting or screaming or sounding divisive.
:21:20. > :21:25.Although his speech was not as presidential as it could have been.
:21:26. > :21:31.As for his plans for America, it is also vague and he is worrying a lot
:21:32. > :21:35.of people. There is a lack of clarity in the way that the
:21:36. > :21:39.president sees his presidential role and how he operates and works with
:21:40. > :21:44.other democratic institutions in the United States. His economic plan,
:21:45. > :21:48.his so-called Keynesian economic plan, I would not go so far as
:21:49. > :21:53.calling it that, it is open to debate whether it will happen or
:21:54. > :21:57.not. The wisdom in Washington is the president proposes and Congress
:21:58. > :22:02.disposes, so he cannot spend any money anyway and it is a matter for
:22:03. > :22:08.Congress. Some might say let's spent a lot of money that we never wanted
:22:09. > :22:13.to spend. Cracks will begin to emerge. Whatever Donald Trump is,
:22:14. > :22:17.and it is difficult to see what he is, he is not a Republican in my
:22:18. > :22:23.view and he is not a conservative. These divisions with the Republican
:22:24. > :22:27.Congress and the Senate will emerge. He is directly opposed to many of
:22:28. > :22:35.the leading Republicans in Congress. The other thing which is odd is that
:22:36. > :22:42.he has a rust belt constituency, which is the bulk of his support, to
:22:43. > :22:47.honour his commitments to. If you give the majority of your tax cuts
:22:48. > :22:52.to the very richest 1% of Americans, there is no way he will bring back
:22:53. > :22:57.steel or coal or whatever, even if he wanted to, he could not do it. So
:22:58. > :23:03.there is real trouble ahead in Congress for him and also with his
:23:04. > :23:07.key constituencies. I think the infrastructure spending is something
:23:08. > :23:11.he does have bipartisan support for. The Democrats were trying to get
:23:12. > :23:15.that through with Barack Obama and they were thwarted. What I am
:23:16. > :23:19.interested to see and watch is whether or not they get some sort of
:23:20. > :23:24.infrastructure plan in place and they have it targeted towards some
:23:25. > :23:31.of those kiss dates were Donald Trump one, the rust belt states.
:23:32. > :23:38.There is not going to be real labour force, this will go to big contracts
:23:39. > :23:42.and big companies. It could create employment, but he has got to move
:23:43. > :23:47.fast if he wants that to take effect. He is not able to do it
:23:48. > :23:52.because of everything else, all the clutter. He did well with the
:23:53. > :23:55.congressional speech, the markets rose and everything else, and
:23:56. > :23:59.suddenly within 24 hours this happens because he has got all this
:24:00. > :24:04.clutter around what he is trying to do and it is back to chaos as usual.
:24:05. > :24:09.I do not understand why Jeff Sessions did not tell the truth. I
:24:10. > :24:12.do not understand that, it is a simple thing, he had nothing to
:24:13. > :24:21.hide. Did you meet the ambassador? Yes. And he is the Attorney General,
:24:22. > :24:25.that is the key point. He is the chief law officer in the country and
:24:26. > :24:32.here is the man who wanted President Clinton done for perjury in 1999
:24:33. > :24:37.when he was impeached. John Dean of Watergate fame was tweeting this
:24:38. > :24:42.week essentially it is the cover-up which gets you in the end, trust me,
:24:43. > :24:46.I know about this. Whatever they discussed with the Russians it is
:24:47. > :24:49.the fact that it does not seem to be in their own interests to come out
:24:50. > :24:54.and just tell us what they discussed. That is why people keep
:24:55. > :25:01.digging, the American press in particular. Exactly and we do not
:25:02. > :25:03.know the full extent of the Donald Trump campaign supporters and
:25:04. > :25:05.associates and their contact with the Russians. A lot more will come
:25:06. > :25:07.out on this, I guarantee. A lot more will come out
:25:08. > :25:09.on this, I guarantee. That's it for Dateline
:25:10. > :25:11.London this week. You can comment on the programme
:25:12. > :25:13.on Twitter @gavinesler We're back next week
:25:14. > :25:46.at the same time. Good morning. We have got a mixed
:25:47. > :25:51.bag of whether for you as we head through to the remainder of the
:25:52. > :25:58.weekend with everything thrown in. There will be sunshine and heavy
:25:59. > :25:59.showers. This was the view taken by one of our weather Watchers in Port