:00:24. > :00:25.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:28.How much, if anything, should Britain pay to leave
:00:29. > :00:32.How bad is the military situation facing the group calling
:00:33. > :00:38.And is Wikileaks a good or a bad thing?
:00:39. > :00:43.My guests today are Greg Katz of Associated Press.
:00:44. > :00:46.Abdel Bari Atwan who is a writer and commentator on Arab affairs.
:00:47. > :00:56.When Britain leaves the EU, we should be faced with a stiff
:00:57. > :01:02.it is like leaving a golf club - we stop paying when we stop playing.
:01:03. > :01:06.And how much is the Chancellor of the Exchequer trying
:01:07. > :01:08.to save money to pay for what he knows will be
:01:09. > :01:23.What should we pay? What is the tariff for leaving? Does anybody
:01:24. > :01:31.have any idea? No, since we think she will do the triggering on
:01:32. > :01:34.Tuesday, and therefore the big discussions, it seems likely, there
:01:35. > :01:40.are things that have to be done before that. The Ides of March our
:01:41. > :01:44.report us. Then the discussions happen about in principle about
:01:45. > :01:48.these things. It was interesting listening to some of the Europeans
:01:49. > :01:51.this week because it suddenly occurred to the media in Britain it
:01:52. > :01:57.was time we found out what those people on the other side of the
:01:58. > :02:04.consulate thought -- continent Thorton believed. They exist in
:02:05. > :02:09.terms of the Council and the commission and in terms of the
:02:10. > :02:14.parliament and in terms of 27 other nations, all of whom have to ratify
:02:15. > :02:17.what deal is done. This question of how much Britain should pay as part
:02:18. > :02:21.of the divorce is only one thing they have too discussed and it is in
:02:22. > :02:26.with all the others and it seems obvious that we have incurred some
:02:27. > :02:29.degree of liability and responsibility for whatever the
:02:30. > :02:34.separation costs will be and ongoing costs of the EU. You do not just
:02:35. > :02:45.walk away at this point will stop how much that ends up being, you
:02:46. > :02:50.guess. Thank you. I am talking about 60 billion. The Foreign Secretary
:02:51. > :02:56.Boris Johnson said we should not give them anything. You cannot have
:02:57. > :03:00.a free divorce. If you decide to divorce you have to pay the price,
:03:01. > :03:05.it is as simple as that. It will be painful in the beginning but after
:03:06. > :03:10.that you have to realise you are exporting 50% of your exports to
:03:11. > :03:17.Europe. It has to be a soft landing, it has to be flexibility from the
:03:18. > :03:25.British side to keep good relations with the ex-wife, for examples.
:03:26. > :03:30.There should be pavement. At the same time there should be soft exit
:03:31. > :03:34.without problems because it is in the interests of Britain to keep
:03:35. > :03:39.good relations with the EU. They are angry and upset and we should
:03:40. > :03:44.understand that. I am not sure about the divorce metaphor, it is like
:03:45. > :03:49.breaking up a business. We have been part of what Jeremy Clarkson has
:03:50. > :03:53.called the biggest budget in the world, a huge budget. We made
:03:54. > :03:57.promises to participate in projects ahead and we cannot just say, we
:03:58. > :04:03.said we will do this but we are not going to now. We can say that. It
:04:04. > :04:06.would not be right. As David said, the European Parliament 's have to
:04:07. > :04:10.vote on the final deal and the commission and I agree, there has
:04:11. > :04:16.been an atmosphere in the British press of fog in the channel,
:04:17. > :04:20.continent cut off. We are not in charge. The other point underlined
:04:21. > :04:28.what David said, you do not know how much of this is boxes squaring up
:04:29. > :04:31.before a match, a lot of talk, and eventually it will get down to
:04:32. > :04:36.boring detail about who owes what is what. It will get down to a long
:04:37. > :04:43.discussion with difficult detail that civil servants will have to sit
:04:44. > :04:47.there and crack out. The reality as far as the 60 billion, we will not
:04:48. > :04:53.know the real figure. If she triggers Article 50 on Tuesday it
:04:54. > :04:58.will be a year and 364 days and 23.5 hours before we know the figure and
:04:59. > :05:02.we will have to have to years of the press pointing fingers about it but
:05:03. > :05:08.it will be a hard negotiation. It will be an important part of it.
:05:09. > :05:14.While we look at Crystal balls. With various degrees of incompetence! Do
:05:15. > :05:18.you think there is a chance Theresa May will go for an early election?
:05:19. > :05:22.Some people look at the state of the Labour Party and the question of
:05:23. > :05:29.whether she has a mandate. We love this one. Turn once, it is a good
:05:30. > :05:37.question, because if I were her, I would. This year? I would stop I am
:05:38. > :05:41.the new Prime Minister, I do not have my own mandate and I am likely
:05:42. > :05:45.to get a bigger majority than the awkward majority I have at the
:05:46. > :05:51.moment made up of people who did not want to come out of the EU whereas
:05:52. > :05:55.if I get a 100 seat majority over Jeremy Corbyn's pathetic and
:05:56. > :06:02.hopeless Labour Party, I am away and swimming and can pretty much dictate
:06:03. > :06:04.the terms. Two things would stop you, the first is complexities of
:06:05. > :06:11.triggering the election, trigger being the word. The word of the
:06:12. > :06:15.year. The difficulty because we have a fixed term parliament, but it can
:06:16. > :06:20.be achieved. Then the question of the uncertainties. Is it just
:06:21. > :06:27.possible that somewhere out there lies a new Ukip leader who can get
:06:28. > :06:35.50% of the vote? The Lib Dems, a pro-European... None of these things
:06:36. > :06:42.are likely. Jeremy Corbyn. Tony Blair. David Miliband comes back.
:06:43. > :06:46.But Scotland. If you go to the country and the Scots go to the
:06:47. > :06:50.country at the same time and they as a result get a significant mandate
:06:51. > :07:01.for the Westminster Parliament for the SNP, and over -- an overwhelming
:07:02. > :07:08.one. They are strong, being pro-European. You are Scottish.
:07:09. > :07:12.There is a Scottish problem but all sorts of other problems. Theresa May
:07:13. > :07:16.said we do not need more instability. We have to make sure
:07:17. > :07:20.the ship is going in the right direction. Up to now she is handling
:07:21. > :07:26.things wisely and not taking a very strong stance against Europe, she is
:07:27. > :07:32.trying to negotiate. I agree with David, she should go for it. She
:07:33. > :07:39.should have a mandate, because it is a huge responsibility and I believe
:07:40. > :07:44.the time is right to do this. Gordon Brown did it at a certain stage
:07:45. > :07:53.after Tony Blair. She needs that. She needs a strong mandate from the
:07:54. > :07:58.British people. Why not another referendum, with Brexit, for
:07:59. > :08:03.example? Why not another Scottish referendum? That is the nub, whether
:08:04. > :08:06.there is a British people or whether Scotland is going a different way
:08:07. > :08:11.from England, Northern Ireland is going a different way. To keep them
:08:12. > :08:21.in, you should give them a good example. A referendum. On Brexit?
:08:22. > :08:29.Why not? And your Prime Minister... A strong mandate for the Prime
:08:30. > :08:35.Minister. I don't think I can bear it! A referendum a year. If there
:08:36. > :08:39.were an election, and this is the issue, is it about we have a Tory
:08:40. > :08:44.party who will win without any opposition or will it be an election
:08:45. > :08:49.on Brexit, in which maybe by some miracle the Lib Dems and the part of
:08:50. > :08:55.Labour for remaining in the EU get-together. The other problem it
:08:56. > :08:58.might solve is the House of Lords question and how much parliament
:08:59. > :09:04.should be consulted about this, if Theresa May had a thumping majority,
:09:05. > :09:08.she could say, the British people have spoken again, I am the right
:09:09. > :09:13.person to negotiate, Parliament can decide what it likes, but my party
:09:14. > :09:18.runs parliament. She adds to her majority if she calls an election.
:09:19. > :09:23.She may do it but it does not solve anything in Scotland and may make it
:09:24. > :09:28.worse. The idea that Labour and the Lib Dems come together as a saviour
:09:29. > :09:34.act. We like to dream! I do not see anyone sitting in the party about to
:09:35. > :09:36.leap to the fore, in either party. I think she would end up with a bigger
:09:37. > :09:36.majority. In Syria and Iraq, the territory
:09:37. > :09:38.held by Islamic State What difference will it make
:09:39. > :09:43.if they are driven our What difference will it make
:09:44. > :09:46.if they are driven out of towns and cities,
:09:47. > :09:48.and how will that affect the chances of terrorist
:09:49. > :10:01.attacks in the Middle East, They are under great difficulty and
:10:02. > :10:05.pressure. In Mosul, Raqqa, and the catastrophe might get worse. We do
:10:06. > :10:08.not know about the humanitarian catastrophe because there is a
:10:09. > :10:13.blackout on what is happening in Mosul. There are 150,000 Iraqi
:10:14. > :10:17.forces attacking Mosul, they liberated the eastern part and they
:10:18. > :10:24.are facing difficulties with the western part because there are
:10:25. > :10:27.narrow alleyways, the old city. It seems that Islamic State have
:10:28. > :10:31.managed to dig a lot of tunnels and they are fighting. There are
:10:32. > :10:36.difficulties and a lot of casualties. We do not know about the
:10:37. > :10:42.people, do they have food, electricity, water? But definitely
:10:43. > :10:46.the Islamic State is losing a lot of ground there and there are reports
:10:47. > :10:55.that may be the leader of Islamic State managed to run away to another
:10:56. > :11:02.part of Iraq. And that he is hiding. We don't know. The Americans say he
:11:03. > :11:06.left Mosul. If you know that, why did you not kill him, for example,
:11:07. > :11:14.if you have information about him and he is still alive and he managed
:11:15. > :11:20.to run away. Who is going to liberate? And what will happen after
:11:21. > :11:27.day liberate Mosul and Raqqa? Who will be the sovereign ruler. Raqqa
:11:28. > :11:32.is part of Syria. There is a huge problem between the Russians and
:11:33. > :11:38.Americans and between Turks and the Russians, when it comes to Syria.
:11:39. > :11:41.The Americans would like the Kurds, the Syrian Democratic army, to do
:11:42. > :11:49.the job because they trust them. But Turkey doesn't. They say we are
:11:50. > :11:55.Sunni, they are Sunni, and we should do the job. Where is the United
:11:56. > :12:00.States in this? We have seen Marines are part of this. Several hundred
:12:01. > :12:04.marines. I do not think the mission has been clearly explained, it was
:12:05. > :12:09.done quietly and I do not think the media has had a chance to ask
:12:10. > :12:12.questions of the Trump administration on their role and it
:12:13. > :12:19.is not clear to what degree they will cooperate. The American
:12:20. > :12:23.position is in flux and not clear at this point. They wanted boots on the
:12:24. > :12:30.ground and I expected more attention to be paid to that in the States.
:12:31. > :12:34.Presumably, at least in the short-term, given the humanitarian
:12:35. > :12:41.problems everybody expects outside Mosul. We might expect more migrants
:12:42. > :12:50.as well. The refugee crisis is still with us and we'll get worse. In the
:12:51. > :12:53.long run, what is there to hold this loose and difficult situation
:12:54. > :13:05.together? What is there for people in the Arab world to look to for
:13:06. > :13:09.hope? Islamic State has a plan B, but, there are opponents, enemies,
:13:10. > :13:15.they do not have a plan B. To retreat to the desert? OK, they will
:13:16. > :13:20.go underground. They start causing a lot of terrorism attacks in the
:13:21. > :13:25.Middle East, and outside, because they will be relieved from running
:13:26. > :13:30.big cities like Mosul and Raqqa but what is the plan B for the coalition
:13:31. > :13:41.'s? There are 60, 70 countries fighting Islamic State. -- 16, 17.
:13:42. > :13:48.We have seen bloodcurdling reports there could be 800, 900 fighters who
:13:49. > :13:54.wish to come back to this country. By thing we have a good handle on
:13:55. > :14:01.who those people are likely to be. I am not saying I am not worried about
:14:02. > :14:05.it, but I think the point is that he takes Raqqa? You can see the Iraqi
:14:06. > :14:08.government will end up in control of Mosul and the question is whether
:14:09. > :14:14.the Iraqi government can behave in such a way it can deal with the
:14:15. > :14:17.Sunni population, majority population, and come to an
:14:18. > :14:22.agreement, which is a big question that involves the Kurds. Raqqa is
:14:23. > :14:28.more of a problem. You can take it, but he keeps it? There you go back
:14:29. > :14:33.to the fact you are in the middle of the Syrian civil war. I tend to
:14:34. > :14:37.believe from what I have heard that Isis, whose unique selling
:14:38. > :14:42.proposition is the caliphate, will be weakened and although it has a
:14:43. > :14:45.great deal of propaganda capacity which is mobile, it can take it with
:14:46. > :14:51.it, and on the whole there are other groups. You should look at the
:14:52. > :14:56.Al-Qaeda affiliate 's bands successor organisations. Who hold
:14:57. > :15:03.territory. It's of territory, and they have capacity and they have not
:15:04. > :15:08.at the moment as IS will, the reputation of being defeated. They
:15:09. > :15:16.are extant in Syria. As you raise the question of people coming back.
:15:17. > :15:20.Terrorist events in the west. I tend to think that will carry on as it
:15:21. > :15:25.did before. I do not think it will be significantly worse as a result
:15:26. > :15:29.of the end. Most of the big questions about Isis are in the
:15:30. > :15:33.region. You have written about the digital caliphate, the idea and
:15:34. > :15:41.means of communication will continue. It is much cheaper for
:15:42. > :15:46.them to go underground. It is less problematic. They do not need to run
:15:47. > :15:51.a bigger state or cities like Mosul and Raqqa. If you say you want to
:15:52. > :15:57.have a caliphate and we have declared it and here we are and you
:15:58. > :16:04.are not there any more, it is... You cannot invite people any more. The
:16:05. > :16:10.problem is look at Al-Qaeda now. Why we are busy with Islamic State. Now
:16:11. > :16:15.Al-Qaeda is gaining strength in different parts of the Middle East
:16:16. > :16:20.and now they are very strong in Yemen, in parts of Africa. They
:16:21. > :16:31.start to gather strength and recruit people. The same thing, Islamic
:16:32. > :16:36.State will do. They have branches. In Sinai, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan.
:16:37. > :16:43.I just came back from India. They are worried about terrorist attacks
:16:44. > :16:48.by Islamic State, especially among the Muslim community. We are seeing
:16:49. > :16:54.this terrible famine. How that will play together I do not know. I
:16:55. > :16:56.wonder whether Al-Qaeda will be almost like a successor
:16:57. > :17:02.organisation, like a more sensible Islamist force.
:17:03. > :17:04.Donald Trump claimed - based on no evidence, apparently -
:17:05. > :17:06.that predecessor Barack Obama wanted to wiretap him.
:17:07. > :17:09.The language seems quaint, given that we learned this week -
:17:10. > :17:11.courtesy of Wikileaks - that the CIA can not only
:17:12. > :17:14.bug your phone, but your TV and, for all I know, your toaster
:17:15. > :17:18.Is Wikileaks doing a public service, or is it a danger
:17:19. > :17:32.How do you think Wikileaks is seen by the Trump administration? They go
:17:33. > :17:35.back and forth. Trump I think was happy when Wikileaks was releasing
:17:36. > :17:40.e-mails from the Democratic national committee and was kind of thrilled
:17:41. > :17:48.all those embarrassing e-mails were coming out. Now he is in the White
:17:49. > :17:52.House he is annoyed the CIA's secret weapons, online weapons, revealed
:17:53. > :17:59.online, so now he wants them to please be quiet and can play a
:18:00. > :18:03.different game. Basically, this release is embarrassing to the CIA
:18:04. > :18:07.and has a lot of practical overtones. Nobody is surprised they
:18:08. > :18:15.are trying to get into your phones and TVs. Releasing thousands of
:18:16. > :18:20.pages of no high and detailed coding is not something... And nobody
:18:21. > :18:26.knows. Where it came from. That is my problem with Wikileaks. I need to
:18:27. > :18:28.know where it comes from. It can sometimes be illegal to publish
:18:29. > :18:33.material that has been stolen as long as you did not steal it. That
:18:34. > :18:45.does not satisfy my own ethical concerns. That is the point. Edward
:18:46. > :18:48.Snowden, somebody an insider, discontented, saying people in
:18:49. > :18:53.America need to know this. If that is the case here. Perhaps one takes
:18:54. > :19:00.a moral judgment, if it came from Russian intelligence you might take
:19:01. > :19:04.another judgment. If our friend Julian Assange, if his goal was to
:19:05. > :19:09.damage Hillary Clinton and help Donald Trump, which he has implied,
:19:10. > :19:14.that is meddling into domestic politics. I am not crazy about the
:19:15. > :19:19.idea of him trying to shape elections. Wikileaks, good or bad?
:19:20. > :19:23.Wikileaks used to provide a useful service and I remember the release
:19:24. > :19:28.of the Guantanamo operation annual and lists of membership of the
:19:29. > :19:33.American far right groups. The toxic dump on the Ivory Coast. Something
:19:34. > :19:37.else has happened since, and Julian Assange is locked up in the embassy
:19:38. > :19:42.and has taken complete control of the organisation and got rid of
:19:43. > :19:51.people he used to trust. He is paranoid, like kids sitting in their
:19:52. > :19:54.mother's basements, posting. I don't think he has an agenda, political
:19:55. > :19:59.agenda in the way you suggest, I think his agenda is his own
:20:00. > :20:07.aggrandise mint. He can be used by almost anybody and we do not know
:20:08. > :20:14.who is using him. Wikileaks is doing a good job. We must expose these
:20:15. > :20:23.intelligence services, the CIA, why not? They are plotting here,
:20:24. > :20:29.plotting their, let us expose them and let them be aware there are
:20:30. > :20:34.people vetting their operations and knowing what they are doing. I had a
:20:35. > :20:40.look at Wikileaks because I was mentioned several times when it
:20:41. > :20:44.comes to the bodies it was a great job, doing a great job against
:20:45. > :20:50.brutal dictatorships in that part of the world and how they function, how
:20:51. > :20:54.they pay dirty money, financing walls, in our part of the world,
:20:55. > :21:03.dealing with superpowers like the US. It is nice to know what is
:21:04. > :21:08.behind. I think Wikileaks is doing a great job. It is selected releases.
:21:09. > :21:18.We hear about Hillary Clinton's e-mails. Give us the truth about
:21:19. > :21:21.Russia. Chinese... One of the difficulties, one of the mysteries,
:21:22. > :21:30.why are there no Russian and Chinese whistle-blowers? I cannot imagine!
:21:31. > :21:35.You can expect a face white in an airport, that is why, or somebody
:21:36. > :21:39.will saunter across Waterloo Bridge with a knob roller and stick it in
:21:40. > :21:45.your foot! The problems for whistle-blowers, one of the great
:21:46. > :21:52.benefits of these open societies is our whistle-blowers, they don't
:21:53. > :21:57.generally face being offed by the state any more. Journalists want to
:21:58. > :22:05.know everything but as citizens we don't necessarily want everything to
:22:06. > :22:11.be no. There are a lot of things our spooks are doing that I want them to
:22:12. > :22:15.do. Let's say the proposition was, could you Bagh a jihadis televisions
:22:16. > :22:19.so when they are having a conversation about who to bomb you
:22:20. > :22:24.could pick it up, I am in favour. I would be in general not in favour of
:22:25. > :22:29.that being known so the jihadis could stop it happening, so we would
:22:30. > :22:38.share that. Insofar as that is what is being explored, I am antsy about
:22:39. > :22:42.other people discovering it will stop we are conflicted. The big
:22:43. > :22:46.question in a democratic society is what oversight you have about what
:22:47. > :22:51.spooks are doing so you can be relatively sure they are doing the
:22:52. > :22:55.things he would approve of. A lot of this I want them to do. I want them
:22:56. > :23:00.to stop people blowing up our schools and so on. This would be
:23:01. > :23:04.news to us but not to Russian or Chinese intelligence that you can
:23:05. > :23:20.get a Samsung television and bucket. As citizens we might not know this.
:23:21. > :23:26.-- bug it. Look at the American election and what happened. There
:23:27. > :23:32.are good cyber attackers out there. Allegedly, yes. They are welcome to
:23:33. > :23:38.sue in the British courts. Wikileaks, good or bad? Is it for
:23:39. > :23:45.you the question of provenance, where does it come from? Who is
:23:46. > :23:52.doing it for whose benefit? Discrimination. I don't regard to
:23:53. > :23:54.data dumping as whistle-blowing. It is not whistle-blowing.
:23:55. > :23:57.Whistle-blowing is you think something is wrong and you bring
:23:58. > :24:02.attention to that thing. Taking every bit of data and dumping it in
:24:03. > :24:08.the open without care about what it is or where it comes from... And
:24:09. > :24:15.failing to redact personal information. They are now doing
:24:16. > :24:21.that. Not all of the time. They are spying on us. We do not have any
:24:22. > :24:25.privacy. They always spied on us. My parents were spied on with
:24:26. > :24:30.telephones tapped because they were communists. The question is whether
:24:31. > :24:35.there is a proper degree of oversight. There are enemies of
:24:36. > :24:44.society within society you might want this stunting. Democracy has
:24:45. > :24:48.become the establishment of, and Twilight Son wants to dismantle the
:24:49. > :24:57.establishment. The Julian Assange's -- wants to dismantle it.
:24:58. > :25:02.Dismantling democratic institutions becomes a part of that. How as
:25:03. > :25:09.journalist should we treat this? Previous leaks, journalists have
:25:10. > :25:13.redacted it themselves and information has become available to
:25:14. > :25:18.British newspapers and they say they will not publish that because it
:25:19. > :25:21.puts lives at risk. That seems to have changed. Wikileaks has been
:25:22. > :25:27.good at manipulating the media and the first response in most cases is
:25:28. > :25:32.let's publish everything and the documents may be not fit for the
:25:33. > :25:35.public to see because it contains names of agents or personal
:25:36. > :25:39.information about people who have not done anything wrong. I am more
:25:40. > :25:46.sceptical about what they release them my colleagues and... You do not
:25:47. > :25:51.think it is as important as they suggest? Julian is very good at
:25:52. > :25:57.making what he is to do sounding very important. I would like to know
:25:58. > :26:00.if the Swedish are going to charge him with any sexual offences, and I
:26:01. > :26:07.would like to know whether the US does or does not have an indictment
:26:08. > :26:11.against him. These things are important for understanding who he
:26:12. > :26:15.is where he stands. I would like to know why Nigel Farage went to see
:26:16. > :26:17.him. I think he wanted an interview, nothing more. We see.
:26:18. > :26:21.That's it for Dateline London this week.
:26:22. > :26:24.You can comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler
:26:25. > :26:32.We're back next week at the same time.