:00:24. > :00:25.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:27.Could Theresa May be the prime minister who takes
:00:28. > :00:29.the United Kingdom out of the European Union -
:00:30. > :00:31.and unwittingly helps to break up the United Kingdom itself?
:00:32. > :00:35.And six years of civil war in Syria - is there an end to this?
:00:36. > :00:41.Mustapha Karkouti who is a Syrian writer,
:00:42. > :00:44.in our Glasgow studio Kevin McKenna of the Guardian and The Herald,
:00:45. > :00:47.Annalisa Piras who is an Italian journalist and film maker,
:00:48. > :00:57.In a democracy people have the right to choose whether to leave a union
:00:58. > :00:59.where the government seems remote and does not reflect
:01:00. > :01:02.That was at the core of the argument against
:01:03. > :01:05.the European Union and for Brexit - now it is the same argument
:01:06. > :01:07.being used by nationalists in Scotland calling
:01:08. > :01:11.Will Theresa May go down in history as the prime minister
:01:12. > :01:24.Kevin, why did Nicola Sturgeon decide to call for a second
:01:25. > :01:34.referendum? It is quite whiskey isn't it? Any decision to call for a
:01:35. > :01:43.referendum carries a degree of risk. -- risky. This isn't just about
:01:44. > :01:49.taking Scotland in three Europe away from the UK. I think the First
:01:50. > :01:51.Minister lots patients with knocking consistently on Theresa May 's door
:01:52. > :01:58.looking for Scotland's interest to be represented in any future Brexit
:01:59. > :02:01.negotiations and having the door was slammed on her face. The First
:02:02. > :02:10.Minister talked about the continuous intransigence of the UK Government
:02:11. > :02:15.since June 23 last year. This is because Scotland voted 62% to 30% to
:02:16. > :02:18.remain in Europe. The second thing I think that has alarmed the First
:02:19. > :02:25.Minister and many other people in Scotland is the sense of chaos that
:02:26. > :02:31.seems to have enveloped the UK Government with regard to Brexit.
:02:32. > :02:38.Every week or so we have another Brexit minister spokesman being
:02:39. > :02:44.dredged up. Seeing that we don't know how this will work out. There's
:02:45. > :02:52.this disdainful attitude that some of these ministers seem to show for
:02:53. > :02:54.the former European partners which makes one believe that the
:02:55. > :03:01.negotiations are not going to be very beneficial for the UK. Scotland
:03:02. > :03:06.will be left out and have to take whatever the UK and London decides
:03:07. > :03:09.for it. And I think that Nicola Sturgeon said that we need to have a
:03:10. > :03:19.voice ear and the only way we can have a voice is a referendum and to
:03:20. > :03:23.seek our own relationship with Europe. She feels she has a mandate
:03:24. > :03:30.because was an overwhelming victory for the SNP both in the UK election
:03:31. > :03:39.the Scottish election. Let's be bringing Iain Martin. Kevin touches
:03:40. > :03:44.on the resentment that many Scots feel that this is such an important
:03:45. > :03:48.decision and we are being ignored but economically they could see the
:03:49. > :03:55.case for leaving the United Kingdom is worse now. It is much worse and
:03:56. > :04:00.this is a bit rich for Kevin Stockburger chaos when we'll see in
:04:01. > :04:03.the SNP can't even answer basic questions about the economy such as
:04:04. > :04:07.which currency Scotland were dues. I think it is key to remember the
:04:08. > :04:14.Scottish people and the polls are very clear this do not want an early
:04:15. > :04:17.referendum. Voters in Scotland, just as in England, a perfectly
:04:18. > :04:21.reasonable and weather or not they voted for Brexit it is preposterous
:04:22. > :04:29.the idea that you might in the middle of trying to negotiate this
:04:30. > :04:34.difficult deal, difficult set of negotiations in late 2018 early 2019
:04:35. > :04:39.that the UK Government would also have a referendum on breaking up the
:04:40. > :04:42.UK. Nicola Sturgeon is made a point and maybe it suits everybody that
:04:43. > :04:48.the Prime Minister is saying you can't have it just yet. Whatever
:04:49. > :04:51.protestations are made in public maybe that is fine for Nicola
:04:52. > :04:56.Sturgeon because she can point again to the arrogance of Westminster
:04:57. > :04:59.telling us what to do. That is true. It may everybody gets a bit of what
:05:00. > :05:05.they want but I think it is worth remembering that the SNP are
:05:06. > :05:10.brilliant at politics but they are not perfect at it. They're
:05:11. > :05:16.infallible. And they are not now pretty wanted to be are intended to
:05:17. > :05:19.be after the Brexit referendum. By now Scottish anger about Brexit was
:05:20. > :05:24.supposed to have led to a clamour for an instant referendum and move
:05:25. > :05:27.into the European Union which incidentally the SNP are now backing
:05:28. > :05:34.away from and no seems to favour some sort of Norway status because
:05:35. > :05:39.so many SNP voters actually voted for Brexit. A third of SNP voters 42
:05:40. > :05:52.leave the European Union. Sturgeon finds herself in a tricky position.
:05:53. > :05:55.Alissa There are governments in Europe that are concerned such as
:05:56. > :06:01.Spain concerned that of Scotland gets out the same will happen for
:06:02. > :06:04.Catalonia. I think this was an old argument against independence of
:06:05. > :06:16.Scotland in the eyes of the European Union but this has been surpassed by
:06:17. > :06:30.events. -- Annalisa. Britain is sabotaging our union. There is a
:06:31. > :06:33.reason for resentment out there. If people in favour Brexit were to be
:06:34. > :06:36.punished by the break-up of the United Kingdom I guess a lot of
:06:37. > :06:40.people would not be so displeased any more. We do not know what
:06:41. > :06:44.relationship Scotland would want if it were to be independent but would
:06:45. > :06:50.that make it easier? Would there be more of a welcome for the Scots? I
:06:51. > :06:55.think so. It is understandable because it would be a validation of
:06:56. > :06:59.the regional dimensions of the European Union which is very
:07:00. > :07:05.important as well and the fact that the Scots would be ready to leave
:07:06. > :07:08.the UK to rejoin the EU would be an encouragement and don't forget that
:07:09. > :07:15.the European Union is changing very fast. All the convection prejudice
:07:16. > :07:28.are changing as well. There is a lot of goodwill towards redesigning the
:07:29. > :07:31.European Union. It is all up in air. Nobody has a solid and comprehensive
:07:32. > :07:44.view on the matter. The battle of the two unions. The two are
:07:45. > :07:48.interconnected. What ever happens to the first, pulling out from Europe
:07:49. > :07:54.through Brexit, will certainly affect the United Kingdom. There are
:07:55. > :07:59.noises now, certainly Scotland is started. Maybe you will hear that
:08:00. > :08:02.from Northern Ireland as well. It is very interesting seeing how it will
:08:03. > :08:09.be sorted out, the relationship between Northern Ireland and Ireland
:08:10. > :08:13.which is part of the European Union. Today Gordon Brown, former Prime
:08:14. > :08:19.Minister, came up with this new or third option. That is what is
:08:20. > :08:25.calling it. Give Scotland the devolved authority and more power,
:08:26. > :08:30.even to the extent that they can sign international treaties, and
:08:31. > :08:36.also power to do their own agriculture policies. A lot of other
:08:37. > :08:41.things as well. At the same time remain in the United Kingdom. So
:08:42. > :08:47.Theresa May should really take a look into all of these things.
:08:48. > :08:52.Kevin, I wanted to bring you on about some of the criticisms that
:08:53. > :08:56.Iain may. You could say if that is another referendum in two or three
:08:57. > :09:02.years fatigue of having the same party in power for Scotland my not
:09:03. > :09:10.play into the interests of the SNP. As we know, you cover criticism
:09:11. > :09:13.about how the NHS is working and the education system which any
:09:14. > :09:15.Government gets but it is not a great platform for going to the
:09:16. > :09:25.people in Singh should be independent. There were a couple
:09:26. > :09:30.things that I would like to pick Iain up on. We're not talking about
:09:31. > :09:34.referendum any time soon. We're talking at the earliest next autumn
:09:35. > :09:42.and probably more towards spring which is two years away. That is
:09:43. > :09:50.within Theresa May 's own timetable for the conclusion of Brexit talks.
:09:51. > :09:55.We're not too far away. With regard to the economy or future predictions
:09:56. > :10:00.of Scotland's future economy, any uncertainty is surely going to be
:10:01. > :10:05.eclipsed by the economic apocalypse which could be visited upon the UK
:10:06. > :10:10.as a result of a harder Brexit and a chaotic Brexit which is what we have
:10:11. > :10:17.at the moment. To address that point about the internal workings of the
:10:18. > :10:22.country, the SNP as a Government does have a responsibility to
:10:23. > :10:27.improve for instance the attainment gap in Scotland in education and
:10:28. > :10:30.that is one thing the Nicola Sturgeon this First Minister in
:10:31. > :10:32.Scotland asked us and the country to judge a run at the next election in
:10:33. > :10:59.2021. Yeah, it be host the SNP -- be holes -- behoves the SNP to do this.
:11:00. > :11:05.Calling a referendum at any time is a risk. The Prime Minister believes
:11:06. > :11:13.there has been an attack on the southern status of the Scottish
:11:14. > :11:22.Parliament. That is yes majority there. Looking at how this is being
:11:23. > :11:26.handled and the kind of things that are being said in Parliament and the
:11:27. > :11:35.lack of scrutiny from the Labour opposition, it is not picture. In
:11:36. > :11:39.terms of Brexit and also the budget. We have seen a complete U-turn on a
:11:40. > :11:42.major part of policy within a couple of days and be seen the
:11:43. > :11:45.interrogation of the Prime Minister at prime ministers question time but
:11:46. > :11:50.the Leader of the Opposition which was not exactly forensics. What I'm
:11:51. > :11:53.trying to say is that politics in Westminster does not inspire a great
:11:54. > :11:58.deal of confidence that people actually know what they're doing.
:11:59. > :12:07.I'm not sure it is restricted to Westminster. Talking about the
:12:08. > :12:13.European Union having the prosperity of 20 countries does not really
:12:14. > :12:30.applying grease. I always said it would be difficult. -- in Greece. I
:12:31. > :12:45.do not agree with Kevin saying this is an apocalypse. This week Mr David
:12:46. > :12:50.Davis said he does not even have a simulation of what the cost would
:12:51. > :12:53.be. Can you imagine if he said I have run the numbers and would you
:12:54. > :12:57.like a paper on the economic apocalypse which is coming? Key
:12:58. > :13:05.thing which is not focused on that is focused on in Germany is that the
:13:06. > :13:11.UK runs the Eurozone. It runs 75% of the debt markets. The Eurozone is a
:13:12. > :13:15.giant gets machine and runs out of the City of London. This is why
:13:16. > :13:20.Germany does not want to see disrupted. A deal, if everyone is
:13:21. > :13:24.sensible, it's possible. But if you bought it for Brexit and use other
:13:25. > :13:28.battle bus that said 350 million a week for the NHS if you bought for
:13:29. > :13:34.us, which is a very specific figure which perhaps nobody believed, there
:13:35. > :13:46.was great specifics about how it was going to be fantastic and know there
:13:47. > :13:49.is no specifics. -- now. All the evidence so far is that the
:13:50. > :13:54.overwhelming body of public opinion in the UK, people just really want
:13:55. > :13:56.to get on with it. May is bowling extremely well because people think
:13:57. > :14:00.a reasonable person who's going to try to try to get a deal. A deal is
:14:01. > :14:09.possible but she is also preparing the ground in case it is not a deal.
:14:10. > :14:22.Which is not the apocalypse. Go and tell the British farmers that 40%
:14:23. > :14:26.tariffs slapped. Because of the deals that the UK would fall on
:14:27. > :14:32.automatically if it crashes are the single murky. How on earth will be
:14:33. > :14:41.cold protruding like the Americans and the Chinese? You would sell your
:14:42. > :14:50.beef did Americans? You used to be a nation of shopkeepers and you you
:14:51. > :14:54.what was the value of selling to 500 million people is on your doorstep.
:14:55. > :15:02.Now you see will sell everything to New Zealand and Canada are America.
:15:03. > :15:10.One thesis is that she would swap the single murky of 509 people with
:15:11. > :15:14.this. It is not one of the other, it is both. France and Germany want to
:15:15. > :15:18.trade with the UK and the UK wants to trade with France and Germany. If
:15:19. > :15:25.everyone a sensible deal can be done. But Theresa May has said no
:15:26. > :15:31.deal is better than a bad deal. Kevin, you wanted to come in. When I
:15:32. > :15:35.talked about some of the enforcer rhetoric of some of the ministers
:15:36. > :15:40.responsible for these negotiations, people like Liam Fox talking about
:15:41. > :15:46.building another empire. No, he didn't. And saying that Britain
:15:47. > :15:50.doesn't have anything to apologise for any of its history. We're
:15:51. > :15:55.talking about 27 member states we have to with. I don't think anything
:15:56. > :15:59.that they have seen the last eight months coming out of Westminster,
:16:00. > :16:04.covering out of Britain, instils in them any confidence that they are
:16:05. > :16:10.dealing with somebody who as you keep seeing a sensible about this.
:16:11. > :16:14.Meanwhile in Scotland, Scotland has a history with Europe which predates
:16:15. > :16:18.its history with England. We were dealing and trading with Europe at a
:16:19. > :16:22.time when England and the rest of the UK was wanting to fight them
:16:23. > :16:28.compete with them in Africa and Asia. Scotland has a longer history
:16:29. > :16:32.of European involvement and multiculturalism than the rest of
:16:33. > :16:36.the union. Kevin is a brilliant journalist and an old friend. I can
:16:37. > :16:40.remember when there was an Irish nationalist and when he was a
:16:41. > :16:43.British Unionist to stop know he is a Scottish Nationalists. It is
:16:44. > :16:48.nonsense to say that Liam Fox said he was trying to invent the empire.
:16:49. > :16:52.It is simply not the case. Perhaps that is influenced a lot of people
:16:53. > :16:58.took it. That is what of the record one official said to a newspaper and
:16:59. > :17:03.it is not the same thing. We are really watching that in the third
:17:04. > :17:10.World. With great interest. The debate on Brexit and Scotland. We
:17:11. > :17:16.also look at it with a great entry because we do not have such
:17:17. > :17:20.diplomacy unfortunately. We can sort it out very quickly by using the
:17:21. > :17:27.army and they put an end to it. I don't think that will happen here.
:17:28. > :17:32.How interested people across Europe on this? I go to Germany and they
:17:33. > :17:36.are interested in one thing which is mainly the German elections. France,
:17:37. > :17:38.the same thing. The headlines in a lot of union papers this week were
:17:39. > :17:46.about the stand-off with Turkey as they put it with Turkish
:17:47. > :17:51.interference as they see it. The situation in the world is very
:17:52. > :17:55.serious. We have a situation of chaos. All across the borders of the
:17:56. > :18:02.European Union and North Africa and the Middle East. Ukraine. Today the
:18:03. > :18:06.first contingent of 800 British troops are on the Estonian border to
:18:07. > :18:13.try to deter the aggression of Russia. There are big things going
:18:14. > :18:22.on in the world. What is not really clear in Britain is for the rest of
:18:23. > :18:29.Europe Brexit is sorted. So now Britain has to get on with it. They
:18:30. > :18:33.will say today in the German parliament we have understood that
:18:34. > :18:37.it is going to take a very long time for the British to understand the
:18:38. > :18:42.kind of self-inflicted pain that they have chosen so we just need to
:18:43. > :18:50.wait and see. And that sums up the situation. That is a complete
:18:51. > :18:54.misrepresentation. Why did the polls when it came to London just before
:18:55. > :19:04.Christmas bring their entire cabinet? -- Poles. They are most
:19:05. > :19:07.worried about Russian incursion. The UK is the second power in Nato and
:19:08. > :19:12.the leading intelligence listening power. It is very strong relations
:19:13. > :19:20.with the French but it is a key part of the European security system. We
:19:21. > :19:26.do take our responsibility seriously. The Polish realise and
:19:27. > :19:30.increased with the German I speak to realise that that is much more to
:19:31. > :19:34.the European question than the narrow question of the European
:19:35. > :19:37.Union. Britain is going to have to do more, France is going to have to
:19:38. > :19:46.do more to defend its border. Because of Russia. There are very
:19:47. > :19:50.serious issues that are much more important to the EU as an
:19:51. > :19:54.institution. Let's move onto one of those very serious issues.
:19:55. > :19:57.Six years ago this week the people of Syria rose up
:19:58. > :20:00.Six years on an the dictator is still in place
:20:01. > :20:04.Can anyone see an end to this war whose humanitarian
:20:05. > :20:16.It doesn't seem that there's an end at the moment, not even really in
:20:17. > :20:20.the foreseeable future. Unless the world attitude towards what is
:20:21. > :20:31.happening in Syria changes. And that really means the involvement of the
:20:32. > :20:35.West directly. With troops? Not necessarily only troops. Troops will
:20:36. > :20:41.not sorted out. The West is used troops before in other conflicts.
:20:42. > :20:47.The last of which was the former Yugoslavia. Troops were not enough.
:20:48. > :20:53.We have to deal with the economy and sanctions and trade and
:20:54. > :20:58.reconstruction as well. You're talking about hundreds of billions
:20:59. > :21:05.of pounds. For reconstruction in the country. Over the country the
:21:06. > :21:13.estimates by United Nations agencies and the World Bank and the rest of
:21:14. > :21:18.them is huge. Unless the United States and the EU and the UK and
:21:19. > :21:28.France and Germany, certainly, this should have come around and bring
:21:29. > :21:35.over a vision to sort it out. Stop or contain Russia to start with. And
:21:36. > :21:40.also put a limit to Iran interfering, not only in the country
:21:41. > :21:49.but in the entire region itself. How do you see this, Annalisa? There are
:21:50. > :21:56.those who say they didn't want to see it any more. I think we all have
:21:57. > :22:03.that kind of sorry. It is a tragic situation. People have become used
:22:04. > :22:08.to horror and they can take it any more. But it is also a huge
:22:09. > :22:12.responsibility for political leaders and people in the media to actually
:22:13. > :22:16.explain more clearly that not looking at it will not make it go
:22:17. > :22:23.away. North Africa and the Middle East, they are on fire. There is a
:22:24. > :22:30.very difficult situation they are that is not going to improve. We
:22:31. > :22:35.have seen America disengaging from a lot of those kind of scenarios and
:22:36. > :22:41.Russia is increasingly belligerent. We cannot pretend that this is not
:22:42. > :22:47.happening and look only at at our naval and think about Brexit. What
:22:48. > :22:53.is danger just this -- the world is dangerous and we need to do
:22:54. > :22:56.something. Kevin, there is a sense that some people have compassion
:22:57. > :23:00.fatigue and there is much worse ahead. It is not just humanity doing
:23:01. > :23:04.terrible things to other human beings, it is Somalia and the
:23:05. > :23:08.drought and people are on the move and the migration question. This
:23:09. > :23:15.will be the story of at least the next decade and it seems to be
:23:16. > :23:19.getting worse. You can never overestimate the common humanity and
:23:20. > :23:25.humanity of ugly people. Who responded to these crises in many
:23:26. > :23:30.countries and the charitable giving and taking refugees and asylum
:23:31. > :23:38.seekers into homes. You can't overestimate that. But that is a
:23:39. > :23:43.pretty going on because whenever that are these humanitarian crises
:23:44. > :23:48.in what we have previous to call the third World and parts of the Middle
:23:49. > :23:54.East, and Africa, we put up our hands and we express horror at it
:23:55. > :23:59.and then we move on. But Syria is going to be with us for another
:24:00. > :24:04.generation at least. And the West, if they are going to make any
:24:05. > :24:08.movement, they have two face up to their responsibilities in the region
:24:09. > :24:16.and face up to the part it played in quite a lot of that instability. I
:24:17. > :24:22.want to bring in Iain. I agree with that. It is shaming and shameful. I
:24:23. > :24:28.think it is also understandable. A lot of it is down to the position
:24:29. > :24:30.that President Obama took. That came after the Iraq experiment and
:24:31. > :24:36.Afghanistan and the financial crisis. There was no appetite in the
:24:37. > :24:39.West to engage properly with these problems. The result is a human
:24:40. > :24:45.catastrophe and I think it is really down to a failure of leadership in
:24:46. > :24:50.the west across parties and across the country is. To then vacate that
:24:51. > :24:57.space and responsibility and allow the Russians to fill the vacuum of
:24:58. > :25:06.thing will be a catastrophe. It will not work. People are being killed
:25:07. > :25:12.daily. Human life means nothing nowadays and fortunately. The people
:25:13. > :25:18.of the region are paying the price of the failed policy of the West. In
:25:19. > :25:23.Iraq and Afghanistan. And Libya. And everywhere else.
:25:24. > :25:25.That's it for Dateline London for this week.
:25:26. > :25:28.I'm leaving the BBC in a week's time and so Dateline London next week
:25:29. > :25:31.I hope you can join me and my guests.
:25:32. > :26:05.The rest of this week will bring a mild and breezy weather for the vast
:26:06. > :26:08.majority that cloud amounts and rainfall amounts will vary. Aberdeen
:26:09. > :26:11.Shire started fairly bright.