:00:22. > :00:25.This week we learnt three things from President Trump.
:00:26. > :00:28.That he is prepared to wield a global stick, to be precise
:00:29. > :00:31.the 'mother of all sticks', that Nato isn't obsolete,
:00:32. > :00:34.and that the United States needs to condemn China a little less
:00:35. > :00:38.and hug it a little more, not least to help deal with a little
:00:39. > :00:42.And, after this weekend's massive show of military might by Pyongyang
:00:43. > :00:45.and that regime's bellicose posturing, how should we interpret
:00:46. > :00:50.President Trump's words: "the problem will be taken care of"?
:00:51. > :00:54.With me to help dissect Donald Trump's thinking and, later,
:00:55. > :00:57.to talk about another President, Mr Erdogan of Turkey, are:
:00:58. > :01:00.Abdel Bari Atwan, who writes on Arab affairs.
:01:01. > :01:03.Henry Chu, who's international editor of Variety magazine.
:01:04. > :01:05.The political commentator Yasmin Alibhai-Brown.
:01:06. > :01:08.And the Russian broadcaster Alexander Nekrassov.
:01:09. > :01:24.What an extraordinary weekend. Henry, what is the normal trump
:01:25. > :01:28.doctrine of foreign policy? I don't think any of us knows if there is
:01:29. > :01:31.any coherent policy going on, it cannot be expressed in 140
:01:32. > :01:36.characters. That is how this man governs. He will say in a news
:01:37. > :01:39.conference that Russia US relations are at an all-time low, then tweets
:01:40. > :01:46.that there will be everlasting peace. He told us health care would
:01:47. > :01:49.be replaced by something great. We cannot divine anything from the
:01:50. > :01:55.policy of the last week or so. I think his own attention span is
:01:56. > :01:59.actually fairly limited. He flip-flops, although he would call
:02:00. > :02:02.it a reversal. He is also going to be tied in times of improving
:02:03. > :02:07.relations with Russia by the domestic political scene in the US.
:02:08. > :02:12.We have people in our legislature in Congress and Senate who are on both
:02:13. > :02:17.sides of the aisle, quite implacably opposed to Russia, or feel this is a
:02:18. > :02:22.destabilising force. There are also his own woes of being investigated,
:02:23. > :02:27.people in his administration being too closely tied to Russia before
:02:28. > :02:31.entering and during the election campaign. He has to tread carefully.
:02:32. > :02:35.As we have seen, it is impossible to actually figure out what an
:02:36. > :02:40.articulated policy from him is because he does not speak that way.
:02:41. > :02:46.What are they saying in Moscow after Rex Tillerson 's visit, after all
:02:47. > :02:49.these other events, weapons, Syria, concerns about North Korea? What are
:02:50. > :03:00.they saying about trump? How do they perceive him? First of all, I think
:03:01. > :03:05.trump is sounding erratic. He inherited a mess from Obama. Let's
:03:06. > :03:10.put it this way. Obama did not deal with Syria. He did not deal with
:03:11. > :03:17.North Korea. He has forgotten about that. He was more preoccupied with
:03:18. > :03:20.sending drones. In Russia, the understanding is that tramples under
:03:21. > :03:26.huge pressure in America from all over the place. For his comments
:03:27. > :03:32.about Russia during the election campaign. There is a bit of sympathy
:03:33. > :03:39.for him, almost? Sympathy on the one hand, on the other hand, he did make
:03:40. > :03:44.some kind of statements. I don't think the Russians realise that it
:03:45. > :03:49.is not going to be a friendship. Love and kisses, and so on. He has
:03:50. > :03:57.stuff to deal with because he is unpredictable. That is true. -- he
:03:58. > :03:59.is tough to deal with. President Putin saw him, there was some debate
:04:00. > :04:06.over the weekend over whether he would. Jasmine, do you have an idea
:04:07. > :04:14.in your mind of what Trump was trying to achieve? No. What is so
:04:15. > :04:20.confusing is that with the Syrian bomb, so many of us, millions,
:04:21. > :04:23.billions, felt this carbuncle of Syria over seven years. Growing and
:04:24. > :04:33.growing on the face of the Earth. In a way, you woke up to this and felt
:04:34. > :04:40.the boil had been advanced. We felt this temporary relief. -- the boil
:04:41. > :04:46.had been lanced. But Henry is right, he is a maverick. At the moment it
:04:47. > :04:49.feels he is playing some kind of computer game, getting a real thrill
:04:50. > :04:57.out of the big bangs and flashes. On the other hand, I think Putin, in my
:04:58. > :05:03.view, is one of the most calculating and problematic leaders we have
:05:04. > :05:08.today. Particularly... And he's been around a long time, 17 years. He is
:05:09. > :05:12.smarter than Trump in some ways. Part of me also worries, and
:05:13. > :05:18.apologies if this sounds mad. But this investigation into the Trump
:05:19. > :05:22.election and the relationship between Russia and Trump's campaign
:05:23. > :05:26.team, is being seriously investigated. I am wondering whether
:05:27. > :05:30.there is this plot within a plot within a plot to make us think now
:05:31. > :05:34.that there won't be any hugs and kisses. I'm very confused about
:05:35. > :05:39.where we are going. Trump is a maverick and that to me is the
:05:40. > :05:50.biggest enjoyable. The Syria conundrum which is at the heart of
:05:51. > :05:55.this debate. -- the biggest danger. Unlike President Obama, Trump
:05:56. > :06:00.dropped a bomb and retaliated. In terms of his approach to Syria, will
:06:01. > :06:03.we now see something of a sustained engagement? Will that do anything to
:06:04. > :06:11.make the peace talks in Geneva go anywhere? I believe these Tomahawk
:06:12. > :06:17.missile strikes killed completely the peace process in Syria. I cannot
:06:18. > :06:24.see this peace process reignited after these Tomahawk missiles.
:06:25. > :06:32.Secondly, I believe that coordination between Russia and the
:06:33. > :06:42.US is coming back after the Foreign Secretary went to Moscow. Rex
:06:43. > :06:49.Tillerson? Yes. I believe there are secret agreements. They told us they
:06:50. > :06:58.were disagreeing, but in fact, some of this is theatre. Putin received
:06:59. > :07:02.Rex Tillerson. They reignited their coordination, military coordination
:07:03. > :07:09.and cooperation between the two superpower in Syria. Should that be
:07:10. > :07:12.cause for optimism? At this point only the tiniest steps are being
:07:13. > :07:15.taken and can be considered improvements. We do not want
:07:16. > :07:19.deterioration and even at the height of the Cold War we had summits
:07:20. > :07:26.between residents and ways to try to ameliorate the relationship. I think
:07:27. > :07:29.this is a good thing, you do want engagement, you don't want a freeze
:07:30. > :07:32.on relations. But I don't hold out any great optimism that these two
:07:33. > :07:39.powers are actually coming together or even really making deals. If they
:07:40. > :07:42.do come together it reminds me of the First World War, where they
:07:43. > :07:45.coughed up a whole continent remember, between them. If they
:07:46. > :07:51.think they can carve up the world between them, it's not good news for
:07:52. > :07:59.the world. -- carved up a whole continent. To ignite a war between
:08:00. > :08:04.the two superpowers, what are we achieving here? I believe
:08:05. > :08:10.coordination is the best way. They manage to reach some sort of
:08:11. > :08:15.understanding. That is why President Putin accepted the idea of meeting
:08:16. > :08:19.to listen, and I believe what we have seen is completely different,
:08:20. > :08:24.what they agreed upon. -- of meeting Rex Tillerson. The Tomahawk missiles
:08:25. > :08:31.did not solve any problems but created more. It did not actually
:08:32. > :08:35.topple Bashar al-Assad of Syria. It didn't change much. I'm surprised
:08:36. > :08:40.some people are saying the American policy toward Syria has changed. It
:08:41. > :08:43.has not. It is exactly the same. Trump and his administration do not
:08:44. > :08:51.want to be involved in Syria, they are happy to see Putin deal with
:08:52. > :08:58.Isis in Syria. In addition to Syria and Afghanistan we had the attack
:08:59. > :09:02.this week, US special forces also had issues in Yemen in the early
:09:03. > :09:03.days of his presidency. Trump is also attempting a bit of what used
:09:04. > :09:12.to be called gunboat diplomacy. The problem of Pyongyang has,
:09:13. > :09:14.the President admitted, forced him to re-evaluate his
:09:15. > :09:16.attitude to China. A currency manipulating,
:09:17. > :09:17.US-job destroying rival He's not the only one
:09:18. > :09:21.courting Beijing, though. On Friday, the Russian
:09:22. > :09:23.foreign ministry let it be known that Sergei Lavrov,
:09:24. > :09:25.the boss there had been on the telephone with Wang Yi,
:09:26. > :09:40.his Chinese opposite number, In terms of the North Korea problem,
:09:41. > :09:42.do you think both Moscow and Washington are overoptimistic about
:09:43. > :09:48.the amount of influence that China can bring to bear on North Korea?
:09:49. > :09:52.First of all I think the international community, whatever it
:09:53. > :09:58.is now, should hang its head in shame over North Korea. Nothing was
:09:59. > :10:02.done. The world was clinging to these resolutions of the Security
:10:03. > :10:06.Council, which don't work, just like they don't work in the
:10:07. > :10:12.Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Sticking to them as if this was,
:10:13. > :10:19.like a bible. No it's not. I think Trump, in a sense, is stirring up
:10:20. > :10:24.this. Suddenly China is waking up. Thinking, we need to do something.
:10:25. > :10:29.Russia, which has had to have some really active policy, is waking up
:10:30. > :10:33.as well. In a sense it is dangerous, what they are doing, but it has
:10:34. > :10:39.woken up the world to the problem. Something needs to be done. It
:10:40. > :10:43.isn't. I think one of the most terrible things that has happened is
:10:44. > :10:48.the way the UN has been sidelined, and actually the reason it does not
:10:49. > :10:51.work well is because members of the Security Council, the big thugs of
:10:52. > :10:56.the Security Council, refused to do the moral thing and they have
:10:57. > :11:00.refused it over Israel and refused it over Syria. The point is this: I
:11:01. > :11:05.am really worried that we are talking here in terms of the big
:11:06. > :11:15.powers now. OK, China, the ones who have the weaponry. Superpowers.
:11:16. > :11:18.Actually, what happens then to the Muslim countries and the gorilla
:11:19. > :11:24.warfare that is actually now a global guerrilla warfare? Have they
:11:25. > :11:27.not learned anything from Vietnam's, that big bombs and big politics do
:11:28. > :11:38.not destroy a determined gorilla army? I am really surprised by Trump
:11:39. > :11:42.and these problems, he is a warmonger. His popularity is going
:11:43. > :11:47.down in his own country. He is changing his mind every day. He is
:11:48. > :11:53.not consistent at all. He has no strategy, nothing, but to throw
:11:54. > :12:00.bombs. He throws missiles, Syria, the failed state, the mother of all
:12:01. > :12:04.bombs in Afghanistan. Those people who cannot respond. We do not know
:12:05. > :12:10.how many civilians we have killed. Do we think that North Korea could
:12:11. > :12:16.respond? That's the problem. I wish North Korea would respond. No! We
:12:17. > :12:21.have had enough of this warmongering to be honest. Why Trump is going
:12:22. > :12:26.there and threatening this and that, throwing bombs at Muslim people,
:12:27. > :12:32.innocent people, killing them simply because he wants to show he is
:12:33. > :12:35.strong enough. We don't want this warmongering. We want peace and
:12:36. > :12:41.Obama was absolutely correct in his policy. When it comes to North Korea
:12:42. > :12:44.lets not pretend they are not warmongering as well. They are not
:12:45. > :12:50.an innocent party. Do they have the capacity to deliver on the threat?
:12:51. > :12:53.In America, Donald Trump doors. North Korea is building up its
:12:54. > :12:59.arsenal and it is certainly capable of hitting American allies,
:13:00. > :13:03.particularly soul and Japan. It is cause for concern. This maverick
:13:04. > :13:06.quality of Donald Trump, his unpredictable of is reaping good
:13:07. > :13:11.results because it keeps the world its toes. I'm not saying I
:13:12. > :13:15.subscribed to that, but there is this line of thought. The problem is
:13:16. > :13:18.you have two mavericks now, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump. When you
:13:19. > :13:25.have two in this expose of environment, I'm afraid well what
:13:26. > :13:31.can go wrong. And you've got Putin, and remember, Pakistan now has a
:13:32. > :13:40.nuclear weapon. India does too. We will be dead. Israel as well! One of
:13:41. > :13:45.the things that really frightens me is because of this posturing and
:13:46. > :13:51.this maverick dropping bombs, and Russia in Syria, and piranha's role
:13:52. > :14:03.as well, we will get into a third World War without even naming it. --
:14:04. > :14:09.Iran that. You still believe they provide the stability? Of course. I
:14:10. > :14:17.don't understand this call for getting rid of them. The UN did
:14:18. > :14:26.nothing about North Korea for decades. In terms of now... In any
:14:27. > :14:30.part of the world. Let's not forget, that this North Korean so-called
:14:31. > :14:36.military potential is a village. Nobody is going to fight for Kim
:14:37. > :14:40.Jong-un in North Korea. If they realise that the threat is real of
:14:41. > :14:44.an attack, they will run. How serious is the suggestion that China
:14:45. > :14:49.can rein in North Korea? This is the other interesting point. Moscow and
:14:50. > :14:53.Washington seemed to assume that, London suddenly thinks China has
:14:54. > :14:56.that degree of employees. Does it? I think it has a certain amount of
:14:57. > :15:02.luggage. The historic ties between China and North Korea are described
:15:03. > :15:09.in the Beijing has lips and teeth. Its actual ability now, especially
:15:10. > :15:15.with Kim Jong-un who was a lot more unstable than his grandfather, has,
:15:16. > :15:19.gated things. You have Donald Trump being schooled by the Chinese
:15:20. > :15:22.president after ten minutes, realising it is not just a matter of
:15:23. > :15:28.China ordering North Korea what to do. China does have power when it
:15:29. > :15:32.comes to oil, that is how North Korea keeps its economy going. It is
:15:33. > :15:37.not without luggage but you think China can actually dictate to North
:15:38. > :15:41.Korea is a mistake. I'm not a big fan of the way China is in terms of
:15:42. > :15:47.freedom and so on, but is it not good that China is coming across as
:15:48. > :15:51.the wise old man of this world? It is not going in for this histrionic
:15:52. > :16:02.politics. Which will take us to the edge. We need wise men. We need
:16:03. > :16:10.people... And women! We need wise leaders. Women and men, whoever. We
:16:11. > :16:17.don't need warmongering. We don't need that. But these wise men did
:16:18. > :16:21.not do anything with North Korea for decades. That is the problem.
:16:22. > :16:25.Something has to be done. There is one problem nobody talks about,
:16:26. > :16:30.South Korea. They are provoking North Korea are all the time. Nobody
:16:31. > :16:37.talks about this at all. They have all these manoeuvres on the borders,
:16:38. > :16:42.those propaganda targeted at North Korea. South Korea is a strange
:16:43. > :16:45.country, by the way. It's not this democracy. Maybe that's one for
:16:46. > :16:47.another week. In Ankara this weekend,
:16:48. > :16:49.another President is hoping voters Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called
:16:50. > :16:53.a referendum on whether he should become an executive president,
:16:54. > :16:54.abolishing the post of Prime Minister and,
:16:55. > :16:57.say his critics, removing existing Perhaps surprisingly in a country
:16:58. > :17:00.where he's cowed the opposition, locked up many critics,
:17:01. > :17:02.including journalists, and has been Turkey's dominant
:17:03. > :17:04.political figure for more than a decade, polls suggest
:17:05. > :17:20.the result will be close. Is there a danger he could actually
:17:21. > :17:25.be trumped, that he could lose this boat? It seems we will have more
:17:26. > :17:32.than one Trump! To be honest. -- this vote. This man is actually
:17:33. > :17:40.trying to revive the Ottoman Empire legacy. He wants to be a new sultan.
:17:41. > :17:47.He deposed and he sacked everybody who is opposing him. 100,000,
:17:48. > :17:53.140,000 people sacked from their jobs under the pretext of martial
:17:54. > :18:01.law. The military coup. 50,000 people arrested. Extraordinary
:18:02. > :18:05.figures. 48,000 arrested. Now, he divided the country, the country is
:18:06. > :18:11.completely divided. He is surrounded by enemies. All over, everybody
:18:12. > :18:17.around Turkey is the enemy of Turkey. Iran, Syria, Greece.
:18:18. > :18:26.Romania, Bulgaria. Even Russia are not really at ease with him now
:18:27. > :18:29.because of him... Even the economy of this country, the Erdogan legacy,
:18:30. > :18:36.he was elected simply because he presented himself as a moderate
:18:37. > :18:39.Muslim. A democratic man. A very progressive development, good
:18:40. > :18:45.economy. Now if you look at the situation, he is not democratic, he
:18:46. > :18:57.is arresting journalists in Mozambique, for example, again the
:18:58. > :19:08.economy is going down. Almost 50% of its value. I would like to speak. My
:19:09. > :19:12.turn to speak. Let me finish. I believe, honestly, we do not know
:19:13. > :19:20.what will happen on this referendum. He is already sacking ministers. My
:19:21. > :19:24.turn! I think we have to go back. And look at some of the things and
:19:25. > :19:29.try and understand, one thing is we always used to say in Africa, users
:19:30. > :19:36.lead democracy to get elected. Now we see it happens everywhere.
:19:37. > :19:40.Everywhere. The thing is, when Turkey was a secular democracy, a
:19:41. > :19:47.Muslim country with a secular constitution, it had all these very
:19:48. > :19:52.well-placed safety nets, freedoms, it's one that path went towards the
:19:53. > :20:00.Islamic citation of Turkey. I am a Muslim, I do not want the Islam
:20:01. > :20:08.Association of countries like Turkey. We are using religion to
:20:09. > :20:17.divide people. The so-called Islamists, not Islamists but Muslim
:20:18. > :20:20.state. It's a terrible thing, taking away critics and journalists. If EU
:20:21. > :20:25.had accepted Turkey into the EU club, I think ten years ago, when
:20:26. > :20:32.Obama was asking them, we might be in a different place. Does the
:20:33. > :20:39.prospect of a sultan in Ankara worry Washington? Which is why we haven't
:20:40. > :20:42.seen such a strong condemnation out of the Trump administration or the
:20:43. > :20:54.Obama Administration to this point. Turkey is a member of Nato and has
:20:55. > :20:59.been able walk for the US. This regrettable... They have stayed out
:21:00. > :21:03.of the referendum, they have not made any intimations as to whether
:21:04. > :21:07.they think it is a good idea or bad idea. I think they will just let
:21:08. > :21:11.that one run as it will. What I am afraid of and what we are seeing in
:21:12. > :21:15.Turkey is indeed somebody who is centralising all power in himself,
:21:16. > :21:20.sees enemies around every corner, and the things he was elected to do
:21:21. > :21:25.- foremost, to develop the economy- have gone sour. We have a president
:21:26. > :21:33.who is acting like an executive president already. Let's not pretend
:21:34. > :21:40.he does not hold the power. Russia did its best to have good relations
:21:41. > :21:45.with Turkey. Even after they shot down Russian planes, even after that
:21:46. > :21:51.outrageous, I would say, murder of the Russian ambassador, Russia did
:21:52. > :22:02.not respond in a way I would have responded to be honest with you. Not
:22:03. > :22:07.yet. For the ambassador, that should -- they should have been punished.
:22:08. > :22:12.All the problems Erdogan has of his own making. His foreign policy is a
:22:13. > :22:16.disaster. Such a pivotal position, just because of geography if nothing
:22:17. > :22:23.else. Nato does nothing to influences policy. Does nothing,
:22:24. > :22:31.never said a word about the quashing of freedoms. The journalists. We are
:22:32. > :22:35.very critical of him. Come on. They should have sanctioned them for
:22:36. > :22:39.this. What he is doing, the sanctions should have been used. I
:22:40. > :22:44.think he will get away with anything. For a Russian to start
:22:45. > :22:51.talking about human rights abuses makes me laugh out loud. Why not?
:22:52. > :22:56.The number of prisoners in Russian prisons! Don't compare the two. That
:22:57. > :23:03.might be an argument for another day. In terms of is he loses, what
:23:04. > :23:07.difference will that make? Will that be the beginning of the end for
:23:08. > :23:10.Erdogan? I think he will be more aggressive and he will try to come
:23:11. > :23:15.back after nine months as the constitution says. He could have
:23:16. > :23:20.another referendum, exactly what happened when he lost the election,
:23:21. > :23:26.the majority of parliament, he called for another election and he
:23:27. > :23:32.managed to create a new alliance with nationalists. That's
:23:33. > :23:35.interesting. The secular side in terms of politics almost seems to
:23:36. > :23:39.have given up the ghost. The opposition is in disarray there.
:23:40. > :23:43.Which makes it all the more incredible to me that in the polls,
:23:44. > :23:47.it shows this referendum is close. You would think with the
:23:48. > :23:50.intimidation going on against the no campaign, and the fact that
:23:51. > :23:54.journalists have been purged, the media are completely in the hand of
:23:55. > :23:59.this administration. You would think it would show overwhelming support
:24:00. > :24:06.for his being given these powers. But secularism is such a deep part
:24:07. > :24:13.of Turkish life and history. People really grew up on it. To see their
:24:14. > :24:22.country becoming like Iran, is a terrible shock. This man will be
:24:23. > :24:28.there. He wants a mandate to do everything he wants. If he does not
:24:29. > :24:34.have this mandate, he is going to impose his will on his own people. I
:24:35. > :24:43.believe Turkey will be more divided, and the economy will suffer more. Is
:24:44. > :24:47.the solution therefore, since you say it will be a worse situation if
:24:48. > :24:52.he were to lose, is it better that he wins it? I can't see how that
:24:53. > :24:55.would be a great outcome. It wouldn't change. The man is another
:24:56. > :24:59.sultan, he wants to behave like that. We will know the result by the
:25:00. > :25:00.beginning of the week. That's it for Dateline
:25:01. > :25:02.London for this week - we're back next week
:25:03. > :25:04.at the same time. You can of course comment on the
:25:05. > :25:40.programme on Twitter @BBCShaunLey. Another update on the weather
:25:41. > :25:41.prospects for the rest of the holiday weekend.