:00:28. > :00:31.Theresa May, who became Britain's Prime Minister less
:00:32. > :00:34.than a year ago after the country voted to leave the European Union,
:00:35. > :00:37.has called a general election - three years earlier
:00:38. > :00:40.In Brussels, they said her shock announcement was a twist
:00:41. > :00:44.The French have experienced quite a few plot twists
:00:45. > :00:47.of their own as the presidential election looms into view.
:00:48. > :00:49.With a crowded field of 11 candidates,
:00:50. > :00:54.If so, we'll know by the end of Sunday which two will go through.
:00:55. > :00:56.With me to discuss Britain, France and all the rest,
:00:57. > :01:02.are: Alex Deane is a Conservative commentator, Michael Goldfarb writes
:01:03. > :01:05.for Politico Europe, Agnes Poirier is UK editor
:01:06. > :01:07.of Marianne in France, and Polly Toynbee is
:01:08. > :01:20.Thanks for being back with us. Polly, we will talk a lot about
:01:21. > :01:23.Theresa May and why she did it, but one thing all the commentators seem
:01:24. > :01:29.to have started this election campaign in agreement on is that
:01:30. > :01:36.this will see off Jeremy Corbyn. But he seems to be relishing the job of
:01:37. > :01:41.underdog. Why? I think he likes elections. Big rallies are his
:01:42. > :01:46.thing, is what is best at. It looks to me unlikely that he will leave,
:01:47. > :01:52.even if he thoroughly thrashed. Those around him seem to be saying
:01:53. > :01:58.he's going to stay until we get a rule change will make sure that
:01:59. > :02:02.another core principles would take after, which would be at party
:02:03. > :02:06.conference in September. This is very internal Labour Party stuff,
:02:07. > :02:13.but there's every reason to think that even if he is thoroughly
:02:14. > :02:17.crushed, he's going to stay. He may stay, and that was perhaps one of
:02:18. > :02:22.the reasons why Theresa May might have wanted this election, to
:02:23. > :02:27.finally lands flat boil of an opposition she doesn't like. She has
:02:28. > :02:31.said she wants more authority, she wants a strong opposition. But we've
:02:32. > :02:38.seen antiestablishment candidates do rather well in other parts of the
:02:39. > :02:43.world. Is a she's running a risk of the stability she has enjoyed? Every
:02:44. > :02:46.election has a risk and we have nearly seven weeks in which events
:02:47. > :02:49.can come up and derail the best of plans, but all things being equal,
:02:50. > :02:56.it looks like there wouldn't be a better time for the Prime Minister
:02:57. > :02:59.to do this. Jeremy Corbyn has led the Labour Party without the
:03:00. > :03:04.confidence of his own MPs for some time. He seems to lack credibility
:03:05. > :03:08.in public as a leader. I'm trying to be fair. I think he spoke well at
:03:09. > :03:12.his lunch. But it's too late to turn around the general lack of
:03:13. > :03:18.confidence in him, not just in the party but in the country at large.
:03:19. > :03:25.Is it a case of having him for another three years? I think Polly
:03:26. > :03:28.is right, I think you'll stay. Jeremy Corbyn is not going to
:03:29. > :03:34.suddenly be anything different. The real reason she cold it is that this
:03:35. > :03:39.is her peak moment. She will never be as popular or successful as she
:03:40. > :03:42.is now. She's going into the most difficult negotiations. We don't
:03:43. > :03:46.even know who is sitting on the other side of the table, depending
:03:47. > :03:50.on the elections in France and Germany. She's probably going to
:03:51. > :03:54.head-on confrontation with other people in Europe and her own
:03:55. > :03:58.backbenchers. Whatever compromise she makes, she will be trounced, so
:03:59. > :04:03.nothing will ever be so good for her again. So that election in 2020
:04:04. > :04:06.would have been much harder to win. Indeed, she would have come back is
:04:07. > :04:11.probably a rotten deal and at least half the population would think it
:04:12. > :04:14.was a rotten deal, whatever it was. Michael, you're reporting with the
:04:15. > :04:21.people who don't know Britain. Have you explaining it? There are two
:04:22. > :04:23.things. I have this image of someone saying to the stockbroker, when the
:04:24. > :04:42.price gets to such and such, cell. Just a few hours after the
:04:43. > :04:49.announcement was made, the Financial Times is running comment about how
:04:50. > :04:52.clever this was, because on both sides, the idea of negotiating
:04:53. > :04:57.something that is realistic both from a European perspective and a
:04:58. > :05:01.British perspective, on Britain's detachment from the European Union
:05:02. > :05:06.in two years is virtually impossible. What she has essentially
:05:07. > :05:12.done is bought herself under the EU an extra few years to work at height
:05:13. > :05:16.and tangled Britain's relationship. In that respect, she may have been
:05:17. > :05:21.taking soundings from people in Brussels, that one way of extending
:05:22. > :05:26.this negotiating beaded and moving that hard deadline of 2019, because
:05:27. > :05:29.we know that in Europe, all deadlines are made to be pushed
:05:30. > :05:34.further along. This may well have played into her decision as well.
:05:35. > :05:40.It's surprising she didn't call for an election before, for instance,
:05:41. > :05:45.after the astounding victory at the by-election. So it all makes sense,
:05:46. > :05:51.she is buying more time. She has a boulevard in front of, as we say
:05:52. > :05:56.French. Of course, the Lib Dems are probably going to win a few seats
:05:57. > :06:02.and Labour is good to be crushed. The SNP cannot do better apart from
:06:03. > :06:15.one more seat. And of course, she only had the mandate of 200 MPs
:06:16. > :06:19.before now. For Brussels, is better to have a stronger British Prime
:06:20. > :06:26.Minister, otherwise you don't know. And then also, within her own party,
:06:27. > :06:32.she is often been taken hostage by hard Brexiteer is. Now if she can
:06:33. > :06:35.say, you shut up, I have a mandate. Whatever she may have said publicly
:06:36. > :06:42.and we have just take everything she says on her merits. She said seven
:06:43. > :06:46.times she wasn't going to have an election and then she changed her
:06:47. > :06:51.mind. We can't take anything she says at face value after that. But
:06:52. > :06:54.in terms of one of the things you didn't talk about, about the
:06:55. > :06:59.difficulty of selling the big city will never own party, is that part
:07:00. > :07:03.of the calculation? I think like any Prime Minister who was elected at a
:07:04. > :07:09.general election, she felt that lack of authority. There are times when
:07:10. > :07:13.it's dangerous not to have an election, as Gordon Brown showed.
:07:14. > :07:18.The other thing about her position is not only that she'll get that
:07:19. > :07:21.sort of mandate, but also in the Brexit negotiations, she will be
:07:22. > :07:26.able to see, not only now has been a referendum and a vote in the House
:07:27. > :07:30.of Commons and the House of Lords, but also a popular general election.
:07:31. > :07:35.It does improve her hand in the negotiations. That's only if she
:07:36. > :07:41.spells out what her negotiating position is and what her red lines
:07:42. > :07:44.are. What's really disgraceful is, we have talked about these tactics,
:07:45. > :07:48.Gordon Brown made a mistake and she's not going to make this a
:07:49. > :07:52.mistake. The real genuine politics are that we need an election when
:07:53. > :07:55.she comes home with the deal, with the people can genuinely decide
:07:56. > :08:01.weather they like the deal or weather they think it's a mistake.
:08:02. > :08:04.This is meaningless. There is nothing new. That is nothing new
:08:05. > :08:10.content to be decided in any manifesto. We really need one when
:08:11. > :08:14.she has done the deal. This conversation reflects that the
:08:15. > :08:17.biggest danger for the Prime Minister is expected management,
:08:18. > :08:21.because unless she does extraordinarily well, then corporate
:08:22. > :08:29.will be seen to have done better than expected. Which will give him
:08:30. > :08:32.the space to carry on. You are managing our expectations. I
:08:33. > :08:35.slightly disagree with poorly about putting in the manifesto what her
:08:36. > :08:46.negotiating positions are. It's actually too early. She doesn't have
:08:47. > :08:57.positions. I do think that having the election is not a bad thing.
:08:58. > :09:03.Firstly because I did think... I think... I thought Gordon Brown
:09:04. > :09:11.actually did make a mistake. Even if he had lost, you have to stand up
:09:12. > :09:14.and show the courage. I disagree with all of you on the manifesto
:09:15. > :09:19.point. If she doesn't put pledges in the manifesto, then she runs into a
:09:20. > :09:26.very difficult position. What could she put in? Her red lines. My point
:09:27. > :09:31.is, in the absence of that material in the manifesto, then the House of
:09:32. > :09:37.Lords, which will be firmly in favour of Remain, they will be
:09:38. > :09:40.entitled to say to her, endure a mandate at the election like this
:09:41. > :09:48.point, so we are entitled to push back. In terms of the practicalities
:09:49. > :09:52.of this, let's say Theresa May winds a general election, I greater risk
:09:53. > :09:59.is it for her that people say, that was pointless. And also that she has
:10:00. > :10:04.created a bit of space for Jeremy Corbyn, may be helped to revive the
:10:05. > :10:10.Lib Dems, who were anti-Brexit party, who will be key to any easier
:10:11. > :10:16.for her. Meanwhile, there are those pesky people in the House of Lords.
:10:17. > :10:20.Could it not be her own party that says, actually, we haven't gained
:10:21. > :10:25.very much. It's a foregone conclusion she's going to win, a
:10:26. > :10:31.question of how much of a majority she gets. It may be that Corbin
:10:32. > :10:34.makes some progress on being the outsider. The antiestablishment
:10:35. > :10:41.figure. And maybe that gets a bit of a ground swell, meanwhile Lib Dems
:10:42. > :10:49.pick up quite a bit of what they've lost last time and were all back to
:10:50. > :11:01.where we were. When Alan Johnson stands down, and for many Labour
:11:02. > :11:07.supporters, he represented a mist opportunity, a leader who should've
:11:08. > :11:11.been. I think we don't play in this discussion so far what will happen
:11:12. > :11:17.in the Labour Party. Let's assume that because of the way the system
:11:18. > :11:23.works, there are still 150 Labour MPs, is at a reasonable assumption?
:11:24. > :11:32.Yes. With Jeremy Corbyn, we hear the talk of purges, and I think the
:11:33. > :11:35.centre-left will have to have a huge discussion among themselves about
:11:36. > :11:42.where they put their faith in the future. This is never going to
:11:43. > :11:54.happen. We're not talking about Tony Blair. He said only one of the
:11:55. > :11:59.centre-left plan, which is to create a movement across political party
:12:00. > :12:08.movement, which would change things. I've been there! This feels like
:12:09. > :12:13.1981 all over again. Winners, all those people out there got bored at
:12:14. > :12:24.the time, the centre-left broke away from the far left.
:12:25. > :12:33.We have an electoral system that absolutely crushes any new arrival.
:12:34. > :12:36.Look at Ukip getting 15% and no MPs. We have an outrageous electoral
:12:37. > :12:45.system that does not allow innovation. If all the Labour MPs
:12:46. > :12:50.are against Jeremy Corbyn, or the majority, why don't they create
:12:51. > :12:59.something? Because they wouldn't get elected again. We did it last time.
:13:00. > :13:11.They have to then fight in each seat Labour candidate. That puts forward.
:13:12. > :13:14.In the short-term, it would be good for the Conservative Party. I agree
:13:15. > :13:25.with your synopsis. The first is that many MPs who are not household
:13:26. > :13:36.names to viewers, but Westminster people know about the moderate
:13:37. > :13:40.supporters, the welterweights, the overall disappearing. It makes it
:13:41. > :13:44.much harder. An awful lot want to go and has been a huge pressures inside
:13:45. > :13:50.the party to stop them. Lows of people, particularly the older ones,
:13:51. > :13:54.have been stopped the quite cross with certain people like Fiona
:13:55. > :13:58.McTaggart and Alan Johnson going. We could have just hung on, they could
:13:59. > :14:01.always have a by-election later. The snap election has protected some of
:14:02. > :14:06.the positions of the remaining moderates a dogface reselection. And
:14:07. > :14:14.because boundary changes are being planned. Luckily there is a
:14:15. > :14:18.generational shift. In terms of the other aspect we've spoken about, one
:14:19. > :14:25.is the question of the Liberal Democrats, because the Lib Dems were
:14:26. > :14:33.in parliamentary terms all but annihilated in the last general
:14:34. > :14:37.election. Is this going to give them potential for regeneration? It
:14:38. > :14:40.definitely does. One of the outcomes was the near destruction of the
:14:41. > :14:49.Liberal Democrats. I think one of the accidents of this election is
:14:50. > :14:53.will be the revival of the Lib Dems. Not necessarily because people have
:14:54. > :14:56.huge vegan Tim Farrell, but because the centre-left belief in Jeremy
:14:57. > :15:03.Corbyn is so low, this would else will vote go. There's also a bit of
:15:04. > :15:10.a Remain vote for the Lib Dems, and that's because Jeremy Corbyn was
:15:11. > :15:19.never very convinced about Remain. There will be places like Richmond
:15:20. > :15:22.and Sussex, where Labour voters Labour votes to the Lib Dems are the
:15:23. > :15:28.well again. There is a lot more of a soft Tory vote, where when the
:15:29. > :15:33.election campaign goes on and receive the relentless nature of it,
:15:34. > :15:40.they may decide they are Remain first and Tory second. It'll be
:15:41. > :15:48.better than they had, but it's not good to be huge. The impact will be
:15:49. > :15:53.about those who switch from Labour to the Conservatives. In Northern
:15:54. > :15:58.Ireland, there's the debate over the border with the Republic of Ireland
:15:59. > :16:03.and the SNP are desperately wanting another referendum. Bloggers create
:16:04. > :16:07.extra problems for the British government. This will be the great
:16:08. > :16:13.crack. This will be the time when they say, Theresa May, helped by
:16:14. > :16:17.David Cameron's appalling judgment on the referendum, hacked apart the
:16:18. > :16:23.United Kingdom. I think it will be all over. I think the Scots will be
:16:24. > :16:27.gone after the next referendum or the one after that. In Northern
:16:28. > :16:32.Ireland, it's very frightening about weather we go back to the bad old
:16:33. > :16:38.times. It's been quite cavalier of the entire Brexit campaign not to
:16:39. > :16:41.consider the United Kingdom. I'm far more optimistic. I don't think we
:16:42. > :16:50.will have a referendum in Scotland, but if we do, it will be lost. We
:16:51. > :16:57.have had a comment trading easier with arrogant for a long time,
:16:58. > :17:05.predating the EU. Michael, last word on the impact on the UK. I am
:17:06. > :17:11.genuinely sceptical about weather a second referendum would win, but
:17:12. > :17:21.then again, it's seven years down the line and we don't know where
:17:22. > :17:24.their Brexit negotiations will be. But the contemporary Conservative
:17:25. > :17:29.Party really does take Scotland for granted and that's one of the
:17:30. > :17:32.reasons it took Gordon Brown to port David Cameron's chestnuts out of the
:17:33. > :17:42.fire on the first referendum. I would worry it hasn't learned its
:17:43. > :17:44.lesson and that is a real worry that Scotland will go.
:17:45. > :17:47.The gunman who shot dead a police officer in Paris on Thursday night
:17:48. > :17:51.may or may not have grasped the full symbolism of his murderous act.
:17:52. > :17:53.The Champs Elysees, in sight of the Arc de Triomphe,
:17:54. > :17:55.is one of France's best known locations, making this
:17:56. > :17:57.a provocative challenge to the French sense of identity.
:17:58. > :18:00.The question is whether what Francois Hollande says is "likely
:18:01. > :18:02.to be terrorism" will affect who the French choose
:18:03. > :18:05.Agnes, did the reactions of the leading presidential
:18:06. > :18:12.candidates reveal much about this election?
:18:13. > :18:21.Of course, the irony is that the attack happened at the same time
:18:22. > :18:24.during a television debate, when it was more like speed dating, because
:18:25. > :18:32.it was not a debate. There were two debates. They had 15 minutes each,
:18:33. > :18:45.the 11 candidates to make a last case. They all were supposed to
:18:46. > :18:54.bring an object to the debate. Bagshaw and tell at school.
:18:55. > :19:02.Marine Le Pen was extremely vocal, as she always is on every subject,
:19:03. > :19:11.obviously one radical Islamism. The thing is, the French have grown
:19:12. > :19:15.accustomed to those attacks. There was the Louvre, there was an orderly
:19:16. > :19:25.airport, now they are army officers or police officers. So I think the
:19:26. > :19:31.impact will be limited on Sunday's first round. I'm not saying there
:19:32. > :19:38.will be no impact. Perhaps on the undecided, because I third of French
:19:39. > :19:43.voters are still undecided. Perhaps because they don't believe in the
:19:44. > :19:47.polls any more. The polls say the first four are extremely close to
:19:48. > :19:54.each other. I still think Marine Le Pen will face-off Macron. But there
:19:55. > :19:59.are six possible scenarios. We should talk about the most
:20:00. > :20:07.frightening one, which is the hard left candidates, and extreme Jeremy
:20:08. > :20:14.Corbyn. He attends some of his rallies as a
:20:15. > :20:26.hologram. Yes, in six different locations?
:20:27. > :20:32.Marine Le Pen versus Heaven, I don't even want to think about it. The
:20:33. > :20:37.attack may have something of an impact, but not on Marine Le Pen.
:20:38. > :20:45.Those voting for her were going to vote for her anyway. I think it will
:20:46. > :20:51.affect Fillon, because of his gravitas. People may think he's a
:20:52. > :20:56.crook, but they cure about national security. That's what the electorate
:20:57. > :21:00.might say, because this is a serious time and calls for people with
:21:01. > :21:10.experience. I think it harms the exciting useful vote for the
:21:11. > :21:15.newcomer. I was just going to say, I saw a very interesting survey today,
:21:16. > :21:22.and I'm not big on data journalism, but this was interesting, six out of
:21:23. > :21:28.ten French voters have changed their mind since the start of the year.
:21:29. > :21:33.Usually, everyone knows about this election and everyone has made the
:21:34. > :21:40.mind up regular go, but 60% of the electorate has changed. They had no
:21:41. > :21:48.idea. That's as a result of good choices on both the right and the
:21:49. > :21:51.left. There are more candidates, it is a genuine rainbow spectrum. You
:21:52. > :21:55.can see why people would ship with the left. My own view is it's far
:21:56. > :22:00.too close to call, it's all within the margin of error for those top
:22:01. > :22:04.few. I think we had better live in fear and terror. We have seen worse
:22:05. > :22:10.happening too often, we've seen the unexpected Brexit vote, the
:22:11. > :22:17.appalling Transport, so let's imagine the worst and thank their
:22:18. > :22:24.lucky stars of it doesn't happen. You're already jumping to the second
:22:25. > :22:28.round. We don't have time for that! What it tells us about the state of
:22:29. > :22:34.French politics, and I right in saying that in no previous election,
:22:35. > :22:38.if this comes to pass on the second round, would there be a situation
:22:39. > :22:41.where neither of the political grouping that have dominated French
:22:42. > :22:48.politics since Charles de Gaulle, would that be a first?
:22:49. > :23:00.Yes, it would be a first. What is the first is the collapse of the
:23:01. > :23:04.Socialist party. Hamon, he was like another Jeremy Corbyn. I think he's
:23:05. > :23:09.going to score below 10%, which couldn't happen in many memories.
:23:10. > :23:19.When talking about similar figures for Jeremy Corbyn, since 19801935,
:23:20. > :23:25.the same in France. So the hard left candidate enjoys that dynamic of the
:23:26. > :23:29.collapse of the socialist party. What really matters for those
:23:30. > :23:34.outside France, around the world but particularly in Europe, is what it
:23:35. > :23:46.means for Europe. We're going to be negotiating position but what with?
:23:47. > :23:53.If it's Melenchon or Marine Le Pen, this will undermine Europe
:23:54. > :24:10.completely. If it is Melenchon or Marine Le Pen, we don't know what
:24:11. > :24:15.will happen. Or me, one of the big things is how badly Francois
:24:16. > :24:18.Hollande has led his party. He's been unwilling to leave the stage
:24:19. > :24:27.early enough to let them be credible. If Jeremy Corbyn had left
:24:28. > :24:33.the stage early enough, the Labour Party could have rebuilt. There's
:24:34. > :24:43.probably no more important than no and there is a terrible legacy to
:24:44. > :24:49.look up. He couldn't made it clear he wasn't going to be the candidate
:24:50. > :24:52.early. Yes, there could have been a much stronger candidate than Hamon,
:24:53. > :24:59.that's for sure. He's more or less faded away, is
:25:00. > :25:03.what the opinion polls are saying. The future then is the second round.
:25:04. > :25:10.Is it going to be a clear-cut enough result or will we still have people
:25:11. > :25:13.saying it was only one or 2% but decided?
:25:14. > :25:22.The turnout will be important at the second round. We now at midday her
:25:23. > :25:27.much participation we have. If it's historically low, then Marine Le Pen
:25:28. > :25:31.stands a lot of chances, because if it is Melenchon or Marine Le Pen,
:25:32. > :25:43.some people will not bother go cavorting. Do you remember when
:25:44. > :25:49.Jacques Chirac was in the last one, people on the left went to vote with
:25:50. > :25:56.nose pegs in order to keep Le Pen out of it. We will talk about this
:25:57. > :25:57.again after the first round is after.
:25:58. > :25:59.That's it for Dateline London for this week -
:26:00. > :26:01.we're back next week at the same time.
:26:02. > :26:04.You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter @bbcshaunley.