:00:23. > :00:25.Hello, and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:33.This week we'll be discussing general elections -
:00:34. > :00:36.the campaign is in its early stages here in the UK, rather
:00:37. > :00:41.We'll assess Donald Trump's first 100 days in office and look
:00:42. > :00:45.at the under-reported tensions between India, and China.
:00:46. > :00:55.With me today are Ashis Ray, the Indian broadcaster
:00:56. > :00:59.The North American broadcaster Jeffrey Kofman,
:01:00. > :01:01.Ned Temko, the political commentator and Eunice Goes,
:01:02. > :01:10.Just a few days, it feels like coming to a British general
:01:11. > :01:20.election. Ned, don't look bored at the start! It is low-key? It might
:01:21. > :01:23.get even lower, you never know. The British press often talks about a
:01:24. > :01:27.phoney war before an election campaign really starts. What is odd
:01:28. > :01:33.about this is it is kind of a phoney election. Despite the prospectus,
:01:34. > :01:36.Theresa May saying I need this mandate to strengthen my negotiation
:01:37. > :01:44.position with the EU, even she must know that it has nothing to do with
:01:45. > :01:48.the EU. Even if she were to get Putin sized majorities in this
:01:49. > :01:52.election, it would not change the basic structure of the negotiations
:01:53. > :01:58.that Britain has to have with 27 other European countries. I think...
:01:59. > :02:01.I would disagree a bit. I think if she gets a commanding majority, it
:02:02. > :02:05.does give her much more authority than if she squeaks Bible has to
:02:06. > :02:09.deal with a minority parliament. I think she is looking for that
:02:10. > :02:16.mandate. -- if she squeaks by. She is also trying to squash dissent in
:02:17. > :02:22.her own party. The real mandate that she once, this is true in a
:02:23. > :02:26.different way, for the anti-mandate that Jeremy Corbyn feels, it is
:02:27. > :02:30.about British politics. If she wins resoundingly, it is more a message
:02:31. > :02:34.to the Boris Johnsons of this world. In a way, to the far right of the
:02:35. > :02:39.Tory party. In other words, in theory, if she wants the so-called
:02:40. > :02:43.soft Brexit... Which she doesn't? Well, we don't know. Have you heard
:02:44. > :02:54.the phrase Brexit means Brexit? That is all we know. Let's posit the
:02:55. > :03:00.possibility that she once a kind of lukewarm Brexit. It is conceivable
:03:01. > :03:06.that if the Ideologically rigid side of the Tory party knew that they
:03:07. > :03:14.have a Tory leader that just got a personal mandate to lead, it might
:03:15. > :03:25.change things. She was looking at the polls? Of course. The opinion
:03:26. > :03:29.polls? Yes, she was looking at the opinion polls. She was also looking
:03:30. > :03:33.at the economic figures. The economic situation is deteriorating,
:03:34. > :03:37.rising inflation, unemployment, maybe there might be some trouble
:03:38. > :03:42.ahead. Also, we haven't felt the economic impact of Brexit. That
:03:43. > :03:45.might take another two, three or four years to take place. She wants
:03:46. > :03:50.to have room for manoeuvre so that she was not going to be punished
:03:51. > :03:54.immediately after Brexit with a terrible electoral result. So, she
:03:55. > :03:57.is factoring in all of this. Of course, being so ahead in the polls,
:03:58. > :04:02.she is the most popular Prime Minister in 40 years. This is really
:04:03. > :04:05.something incredible. She's trying to take advantage of this position.
:04:06. > :04:12.She is also creating one of the most boring elections and campaigns in
:04:13. > :04:19.living memory. I think it is up to the opposition parties, some of them
:04:20. > :04:22.in a sore condition, a really weak condition, to make it a Brexit
:04:23. > :04:26.election. There are lots of questions that the government has
:04:27. > :04:30.not answered. Even Labour is confused about Brexit, which makes
:04:31. > :04:34.it very difficult. There is a political calculus going on as well,
:04:35. > :04:38.she knows the polls, she knows she has extraordinarily weak opposition
:04:39. > :04:44.in Corbyn, who a lot of people in Labour cannot tolerate, perfect
:04:45. > :04:47.alignment of the stars. But she is also looking at these very complex
:04:48. > :04:51.Brexit negotiations, which are going to take a couple of years and
:04:52. > :04:55.thinking, wait a minute, if I wait until we run out of our mandate, we
:04:56. > :04:59.will be right in the middle of key Brexit negotiations and we will have
:05:00. > :05:03.to suspend them for an election campaign. If I do this now, I have a
:05:04. > :05:06.good four year run and we can get this wrapped up before I have to go
:05:07. > :05:13.back to the polls. Will she engage in this? Yes, I have been covering
:05:14. > :05:17.elections in this country since 1979. I see this as a situation
:05:18. > :05:22.where she saw an opportunity, nine months into the job, she saw an
:05:23. > :05:27.opportunity, the opportunity being that Jeremy Corbyn is so far down in
:05:28. > :05:32.the polls that it gives her a chance to perhaps enhance her position,
:05:33. > :05:36.strengthen her hand. That said, it is also true that three years down
:05:37. > :05:39.the road, the economy in Britain may not be as hunky-dory as it is at the
:05:40. > :05:44.moment. So, that was also a factor that played in. More than that, this
:05:45. > :05:49.was an election where she wants to talk about Brexit, and Brexit alone.
:05:50. > :05:55.The fact that she is the best person to negotiate with the 27 countries
:05:56. > :05:58.that she has to talk to. Whereas Jeremy Corbyn, I think, will try
:05:59. > :06:03.very hard to focus on housing and health. Those are the two areas that
:06:04. > :06:09.Labour are seen to be stronger on, compared to the Conservatives. A few
:06:10. > :06:18.more weeks to go, June the 8th. It is a little bit close in France. The
:06:19. > :06:22.French election is fascinating. Who thought we would be where we are
:06:23. > :06:32.today, and we build up to Meder seven? That is true, I think it is
:06:33. > :06:36.going to be very close. We have Macron, the most devoted candidate.
:06:37. > :06:40.At 54% of his voters were voting tactically. That means it is not
:06:41. > :06:43.somebody who has a lot of enthusiasm behind him. The French electoral
:06:44. > :06:47.system has been designed to give the opportunity to voters to come in the
:06:48. > :06:51.first round, vote with their heart, and the second round is to vote with
:06:52. > :06:54.your head. Tactically. So, they are already doing it in the first round,
:06:55. > :07:01.which means some people are very alarmed. His main problem is going
:07:02. > :07:12.to being confusing those voters on the left and right, convince them
:07:13. > :07:15.that Marine Le Pen is a real danger. -- enthusing. He has been working on
:07:16. > :07:20.that, he has been campaigning in areas where the Front National is
:07:21. > :07:24.very strong. He has been employing Tony Blair masochistic tactics,
:07:25. > :07:28.getting engaged in dialogues, some very vivid conversations with
:07:29. > :07:32.voters. I don't know if, in two weeks of the campaign, it will be
:07:33. > :07:36.enough to convince voters. Marine Le Pen, on the other hand, she is
:07:37. > :07:44.clearly targeting voters on the left. She keeps making references to
:07:45. > :07:52.the banking background of Macron, using the language of the candidate
:07:53. > :07:55.of the radical left. She might get around 15% of those radical
:07:56. > :07:59.left-wing voters. It will be much tighter and extension is going to be
:08:00. > :08:03.the greatest enemy of Emmanuel Macron. What we think of Marine Le
:08:04. > :08:09.Pen standing back from her leadership of the Front National?
:08:10. > :08:15.And her leader, who has been exposed as believing... The Holocaust
:08:16. > :08:19.denier? The interim leader. She is chasing her own shadow. Having
:08:20. > :08:22.played this punditry game for a while, I am reluctant to predict any
:08:23. > :08:27.margins, any victors, given the outcomes we have seen in Brexit and
:08:28. > :08:32.Trump. I will predict that Corbyn will not be Prime Minister! Yes,
:08:33. > :08:38.well... That an exception. I think it is hard to see Marine Le Pen, she
:08:39. > :08:43.is such a polarising figure and has a solid base, but when you look at
:08:44. > :08:46.how the votes played in the third and fourth position in the first
:08:47. > :08:56.round of the election, it is very hard to see how it works. The real
:08:57. > :09:02.danger is people staying home. If you remember when Marine Le Pen's
:09:03. > :09:10.father went through this ballet, you know, they defeated Le Pen, but they
:09:11. > :09:16.did it with people on the left holding a nose and saying they would
:09:17. > :09:23.vote for anybody apart from him. Exactly, the voters that supported
:09:24. > :09:26.Francois Fillon, the centre-right candidate, are very hesitant of
:09:27. > :09:31.voting for Macron. It's a problem, because Fillon was campaigning on
:09:32. > :09:37.the margins of the radical right. I think there will be a lot of voters
:09:38. > :09:40.of Fillon who will vote for Marine Le Pen. Interesting, it is a new
:09:41. > :09:46.phenomenon that the two major parties have been knocked out.
:09:47. > :09:50.Effectively you have an independent candidate emerging from the centre.
:09:51. > :09:55.And, of course, a well-known right-wing candidate. I suspected to
:09:56. > :10:01.be closer than what people have been predicting. But we are into new
:10:02. > :10:07.politics these days. An independent could become President. And the
:10:08. > :10:12.youngest President ever? A situation, a country like America,
:10:13. > :10:19.the position of President of France is a hallowed position in the eyes
:10:20. > :10:22.of the French. For a man of that age to become President is
:10:23. > :10:25.extraordinary. It would be another thing to have legislative power
:10:26. > :10:29.behind him, we would not know that until June. It's an interesting
:10:30. > :10:33.point, when you look at trends globally, Trump being the guy that
:10:34. > :10:37.is going to time to clean out the swamp, Brexit being a vote against
:10:38. > :10:41.the old order, Macron very much fits into that trend. He is not from the
:10:42. > :10:45.traditional old line parties. His ideology might be different, he is
:10:46. > :10:53.much more conservative mainstream than Trump, much less disruptive
:10:54. > :10:57.than Brexit, but it is this trend of people saying, I'm fed up with the
:10:58. > :11:02.old order. There is also this trend of the working class people, who
:11:03. > :11:06.traditionally vote for left-wing parties, veering towards parties
:11:07. > :11:09.which are very much to the right. It has happened in Britain, in the
:11:10. > :11:16.shape of Ukip, it has happened in the case of Trump, and now also,
:11:17. > :11:19.perhaps to a certain extent, in France. We may have proved that the
:11:20. > :11:23.French election is a little more interesting than the British one.
:11:24. > :11:24.Let's turn to India. Tensions between India and China
:11:25. > :11:29.have been growing recently. Cross border skirmishes,
:11:30. > :11:43.bellicose rhetoric, all making Ashis, bring us up to date. It has
:11:44. > :11:47.been growing and worsening for some time. Explain what your assessment
:11:48. > :11:50.is where tensions are? There was a lot more tension between India and
:11:51. > :11:53.China these days than what was the case three years ago, lets say.
:11:54. > :11:59.There was a different government them. There is an element of
:12:00. > :12:04.bellicosity between the two belligerents, if you like. More on
:12:05. > :12:11.the behalf of China. The situation is like this. The former ruler of
:12:12. > :12:18.Tibet, he went to India, he got sanctuary, and has been in exile in
:12:19. > :12:23.India for more than 60 years, he is a person that China is
:12:24. > :12:28.ultrasensitive about. There is a long-standing border dispute between
:12:29. > :12:34.India and Pakistan, sorry, India and China, which is described by China
:12:35. > :12:41.as South Tibet, which India claims as part of India. That was put on
:12:42. > :12:46.the back burner in 1993, in the form of a treaty which was called the
:12:47. > :12:50.Peace And Tranquillity Treaty. Discussions would continue, but in
:12:51. > :12:55.the meanwhile, economic relations in particular would forge ahead. And
:12:56. > :13:00.they have. Trade between the two countries runs into tens of
:13:01. > :13:09.billions, 100 billion. Having said that, every time the Dalai Lama
:13:10. > :13:14.visits this sensitive area, which is claimed by China to be South Tibet,
:13:15. > :13:24.he goes there specifically to visit a monastery will stop it tells -- to
:13:25. > :13:28.visit a monastery. It is of tremendous importance to Buddhism.
:13:29. > :13:34.He was there in 2009, when China raised objections. Wasn't that his
:13:35. > :13:46.first landing spot when he came from exile? He came through that area. He
:13:47. > :13:54.fled Tibet. He came through, and settled in India. He is a person
:13:55. > :13:58.that raises China's heckles. China tends to go over the top on this
:13:59. > :14:02.matter. India has try to keep a lid on it. The previous Indian
:14:03. > :14:06.government, I think, did better than the present one. There is certainly
:14:07. > :14:15.an element of rhetoric going on, which I dare say will not lead to
:14:16. > :14:18.war or any of that kind. But you find the border violations are
:14:19. > :14:22.taking place all the time. I think it reflects the aspirations of India
:14:23. > :14:29.to be a global superpower. The two most populous countries, as
:14:30. > :14:32.neighbours, India in the shadow economically and geopolitically, of
:14:33. > :14:37.China, which is much wealthier, much more powerful, has a much stronger
:14:38. > :14:40.army. India, with its own internal issues of extreme poverty and
:14:41. > :14:45.corruption cannot be an equal player with China. But this bellicosity, as
:14:46. > :14:48.I think you rightly call it, reflects this desire to be seen as
:14:49. > :14:53.not being taken advantage of all taken for granted. There is also
:14:54. > :15:00.rising nationalism in both countries. The ruler in China, the
:15:01. > :15:07.ruling party in China, we have seen nationalism in both countries. I
:15:08. > :15:12.tend to agree, this has been going on since the 1960s. No major uproar,
:15:13. > :15:22.skirmishers, episodic skirmishes that are taking place when something
:15:23. > :15:26.more controversial takes place. India's economy, under the shadow of
:15:27. > :15:32.China, it is interesting because it has a much more dynamic economy in
:15:33. > :15:36.some places, certainly more high-tech. It is more malleable and
:15:37. > :15:40.adaptable, in theory. It is against that background where China is not
:15:41. > :15:49.only asserting itself with better ties with Pakistan, but also East
:15:50. > :15:55.Africa, development projects, trade across Pakistan. You can understand
:15:56. > :16:02.India's reticence about this. The wild card, again, is our friend
:16:03. > :16:06.Donald Trump, who, despite the previous administration and the
:16:07. > :16:13.Trans-Pacific Partnership, the tilt to Asia, is basically in a bromance
:16:14. > :16:19.with the leadership of China now, because of North Korea. One of the
:16:20. > :16:24.reasons why tensions have risen between India and China is because
:16:25. > :16:28.India has moved closer to the United States. It certainly did under the
:16:29. > :16:31.Obama administration. What will happen at the Donald Trump, one
:16:32. > :16:41.doesn't know. This has offended China. It is India and the United
:16:42. > :16:44.States ganging up against China. That is one of the reasons why
:16:45. > :16:51.tensions are higher today than they were a couple of years ago. And your
:16:52. > :16:55.anxieties as well, about Kashmir, why we should be more concerned,
:16:56. > :17:02.even more concerned now than we have been in the past? The United States
:17:03. > :17:06.and India, going up against China, China has forged closer and closer
:17:07. > :17:12.to Pakistan. It is a counter ganging up against India, with China and
:17:13. > :17:19.Pakistan. What has happened is that this economic Commodore, as it is
:17:20. > :17:24.called, a massive corridor through disputed territory, as mandated by
:17:25. > :17:31.the United Nations. The entire area of Kashmir is disputed, as far as
:17:32. > :17:37.the United Nations is concerned. So, driving a highway, and economic
:17:38. > :17:42.corridor through territory which is disputed, is something which
:17:43. > :17:46.obviously India is not happy about. He has been mentioned already in the
:17:47. > :17:51.last couple of minutes, you can't avoid that, we must talk about the
:17:52. > :17:56.United States. You probably know that President Trump is completing
:17:57. > :18:00.his first 100 days in office. Jeffrey, you are not too long back
:18:01. > :18:05.from the US. I was very struck that Donald Trump said he was finding the
:18:06. > :18:08.job harder than he anticipated? Era go figure! Isn't that a revealing
:18:09. > :18:17.comment? He told Reuters news agency that the job is much harder than
:18:18. > :18:21.anticipated. He had a good life beforehand, he enjoyed it, maybe he
:18:22. > :18:26.is suffocating? Maybe we should have a whip round and give him his old
:18:27. > :18:34.life back? Exactly, the cocoon, he finds it quite airless, and he
:18:35. > :18:40.misses being able to drive. He ran his business empire by decree. By
:18:41. > :18:44.bullying. It just doesn't work. When you run a business the way he does,
:18:45. > :18:48.it is all about money. It is all about profit. Everybody sits on the
:18:49. > :18:51.table going, how can we make more money? Congress doesn't work that
:18:52. > :18:56.way. You have so many competing interests. You have so many people
:18:57. > :19:01.with regional interests, political interests, ideologies, power bases.
:19:02. > :19:06.Has that been a shock to him, because he didn't come up with the
:19:07. > :19:12.political experience? We saw massive failures, trying to kill Obamacare,
:19:13. > :19:15.it didn't work. Two efforts to ban Muslims from sex, then seven, then
:19:16. > :19:25.six countries, overruled by the courts. -- trying to ban Muslims
:19:26. > :19:27.from six and then seven countries. The courts have overruled his
:19:28. > :19:33.attempts to be an emperor. The question really now is how much he
:19:34. > :19:37.is learning on the job and can he... He almost as four years to go, 100
:19:38. > :19:43.days is not much. It hasn't been great. He has moved some of the far
:19:44. > :19:48.right fringes, Steve Bannon and others out of the centre of power in
:19:49. > :19:52.the White House. He has this more pragmatic group in the White House
:19:53. > :19:56.advising him. You say it hasn't been great, his administration would say,
:19:57. > :19:58.you mentioned it, the US has come out of the Trans-Pacific
:19:59. > :20:03.Partnership, all of the things he wanted to do. He has a new Supreme
:20:04. > :20:07.Court Justice as well? That is an achievement for his administration?
:20:08. > :20:14.His only concrete achievement. If you can call it an achievement. But
:20:15. > :20:17.it is. I wouldn't like to state the obvious, his failures. But one thing
:20:18. > :20:23.disturbs me a little bit. I think he might be trying to raise his ratings
:20:24. > :20:32.by going a little ballistic externally. On the international
:20:33. > :20:38.stage? Absolutely. He has tried the missiles in Syria, he has tried a
:20:39. > :20:41.heavy bombing in Afghanistan and he has now started being quite
:20:42. > :20:45.provocative in the Korean peninsular. It is a dangerous game,
:20:46. > :20:48.but I think it is one way of trying to raise his ratings, which I
:20:49. > :20:53.suspect is what his try to do. For 24 hours he was going to kill the
:20:54. > :20:59.North American Free Trade Agreement, and then backed off. The reassuring
:21:00. > :21:01.thing, and you are more certain than I am that Steve Bannon and the
:21:02. > :21:07.alt-right are exiled, the White House still seems to be not fully
:21:08. > :21:15.functional. I think that is fair. The exception seems to be his
:21:16. > :21:22.national security team, by and large adults, so there is likely to be a
:21:23. > :21:27.check on a lot of this foreign adventure instinct, if it is there.
:21:28. > :21:32.The real problem is that he keeps tweeting and talking. In this
:21:33. > :21:36.Reuters interview, half of what he said was presidential, we want a
:21:37. > :21:40.negotiated resolution, if at all possible. In something that is
:21:41. > :21:47.startling for an American President, he says, we may be headed towards a
:21:48. > :21:55.major, major conflict. That is fine if you are an op-ed writer, but if
:21:56. > :22:00.you are dealing with one of the only world leaders that is more unstable
:22:01. > :22:03.than you are... He makes bizarre comments about mixing national
:22:04. > :22:10.security issues with... I don't know, eating delicious, beautiful
:22:11. > :22:13.chocolate cake. It is disconcerting. What I find most disconcerting about
:22:14. > :22:20.the Trump administration, and I think from a democratic point of
:22:21. > :22:25.view, Ethekwini to reflect on it, the growing blurring of the lines
:22:26. > :22:29.between his function and role as President, and his promotional
:22:30. > :22:35.business interests. To a certain extent, only 100 days have passed,
:22:36. > :22:40.and it has become more or less accepted. It shouldn't be accepted.
:22:41. > :22:46.There will be him and his family, using the puppet of the American
:22:47. > :22:55.presidency to promote the Trump brand. For example, if anchor -- his
:22:56. > :23:02.daughter on stage? There is this talk about her trademark, getting
:23:03. > :23:07.registered in China. Coincidentally, they were having dinner together
:23:08. > :23:12.with the Chinese President. What is happening there? What we are facing,
:23:13. > :23:16.the recent polls in the US show this, he has the highest disapproval
:23:17. > :23:26.rating since Eisenhower, at this stage, Obama was 56%, which was to
:23:27. > :23:30.be accepted. At the core of people that elected him still love him and
:23:31. > :23:37.forgive his sins. You have these two Americas. Only 2% of people that
:23:38. > :23:43.voted for them say they would have done differently? You rightly point
:23:44. > :23:54.out who will be here for four years, in theory. One of the interesting
:23:55. > :24:00.aspects of the American political system is the separation of powers.
:24:01. > :24:04.You have senators elected once every six years. The house of
:24:05. > :24:09.representatives, 400 people in the lower house of Congress, they have
:24:10. > :24:17.to face the electorate in 18 months' time. So, even though the first 100
:24:18. > :24:20.days is an artificial benchmark, 200 days is really serious. That is the
:24:21. > :24:30.time at which individual Republican party congressmen have to decide, is
:24:31. > :24:34.this guy worth my political capital? Then we see, can he get anything
:24:35. > :24:39.done? Again, that comes back to the base. With all the tax cuts he is
:24:40. > :24:42.announcing, he will have the support of Wall Street and the tech
:24:43. > :24:48.industry. I think he is going to have a much smoother ride than you
:24:49. > :24:52.are anticipating. I think he will live and die by whether he can
:24:53. > :24:56.create jobs. It is as simple as that. Success or failure will be
:24:57. > :24:59.about job creation, employment creation. That said, if I am not
:25:00. > :25:05.mistaken, I think more than 500 executive positions in the
:25:06. > :25:10.administration require Senate approval. He has got to only 60 at
:25:11. > :25:15.the moment. At this time, 100 days, Obama had succeeded in appointing
:25:16. > :25:20.190. He is rather behind the curve in terms of appointments. How he's
:25:21. > :25:23.go to handle this, I don't know. I suspect his Russia connection is
:25:24. > :25:28.still a time bomb which is ticking. One doesn't know what will happen
:25:29. > :25:30.there. App thank you very much. Great to see you all. Thank you very
:25:31. > :25:39.much indeed. That is all for this week. Join us
:25:40. > :26:05.next week if you possibly can. Thanks for watching. Goodbye.
:26:06. > :26:10.It has been a pretty decent looking day so far across most parts of the
:26:11. > :26:16.country. We have had a few showers around. For many of us, scenes like
:26:17. > :26:17.this one, taken by a weather watcher in Newquay. Some patchy