:00:26. > :00:30.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:31. > :00:33.This week, the war of elections in France and the UK,
:00:34. > :00:35.and a new round of jaw-jaw to try to bring peace
:00:36. > :00:51.To discuss that, four eminent "jaw-ers" -
:00:52. > :00:54.British Conservative commentator Alex Deane,
:00:55. > :00:58.Thomas Keilinger who writes for Germany's Die Welt,
:00:59. > :01:06.and Agnes Poirier, UK editor of Marianne in France.
:01:07. > :01:17.If Emmanuel Macron wins, what kind of France will be get? Nobody knows.
:01:18. > :01:25.We have seen him at the debate with Marine Le Pen. Marine Le Pen had a
:01:26. > :01:34.disastrous car crashed debate he held the fort. He was relaxed and
:01:35. > :01:39.calm. So at least we know he is kind of presidential 48 39-year-old. What
:01:40. > :01:46.we know? His programme is pro-business but also quite socially
:01:47. > :01:50.conscious. He is a centrist. The real thing is, of course, the
:01:51. > :01:57.general elections which will be taking place in June. We need to
:01:58. > :02:01.fill all the MPs seats at the national Assembly. It was the first
:02:02. > :02:05.time we might have a president without a party, OK. He said he
:02:06. > :02:13.didn't want anyone from the left and the right. Therefore he needs to
:02:14. > :02:19.present a new face for every single constituency. I agree also that is
:02:20. > :02:25.the crunch time, if he wins. Attempts to present him as an
:02:26. > :02:31.outsider, a new force, are lost. He is clearly a very astute person who
:02:32. > :02:35.has turned around a shell of the Conservative Party and escape from
:02:36. > :02:45.that. Without having a real party in parliament and that is when the real
:02:46. > :02:54.test will come I about the of the WikiLeaks we have seen overnight. It
:02:55. > :02:58.seems there is clearly some stuff in there which is very negative about
:02:59. > :03:04.Macron. I am not saying that will mean he loses but if he wins, it
:03:05. > :03:10.will play throughout June when the general election happens. I think I
:03:11. > :03:14.am more interested in the kind of president he will be and the
:03:15. > :03:19.personality, which we have to learn a great deal of it is about French
:03:20. > :03:23.visceral resistance to change and domestic reform. It is the elephant
:03:24. > :03:32.in the room. It is the elephant in the room. Two years ago, President
:03:33. > :03:37.Hollande tried modest reforms. How will he surmount the bill in
:03:38. > :03:45.resistance and the conservatism which will not let go of the 55 age
:03:46. > :03:51.going into retirement and the 35 working week as well. They are just
:03:52. > :04:00.as much in danger of being a problem for the euro over time as the other
:04:01. > :04:04.countries. The fear is he might just be another President Francois
:04:05. > :04:11.Hollande and just sit for five years. That means Marine Le Pen is a
:04:12. > :04:19.shoo-in. Is France reform of all? That is a big question. Its oldest
:04:20. > :04:25.ally is the United States. There is lots of evidence by the United
:04:26. > :04:29.States you can change the politics of a country but it is hard to do if
:04:30. > :04:33.you have not brought the public on site was might say Macron has not
:04:34. > :04:39.done that yet. He has done better than anyone expected he reminds me
:04:40. > :04:42.of Tony Blair. He is the young, vigorous life or you listen to what
:04:43. > :04:45.he says carefully and you think how do those things sit together
:04:46. > :04:51.question that is the magic and the danger. He had a majority and he
:04:52. > :04:59.could not do everything he wanted to do. I would say that Marine Le Pen
:05:00. > :05:05.will get 40%. Donald Trump got 46%. These are still large numbers of
:05:06. > :05:09.people who will resist. But, if he manages to shuffle the cards, which
:05:10. > :05:16.he seems to have done psychically, and say we have to do something new,
:05:17. > :05:20.maybe some of those things will happen and there will not be farmers
:05:21. > :05:27.with tractors in Paris every week. The demand was always for a stronger
:05:28. > :05:31.president. They have had it each time in each time the president has
:05:32. > :05:34.been ineffectual. I think the position of Le Pen will be
:05:35. > :05:40.significant, whatever happens. Either way France will be run by a
:05:41. > :05:46.woman, either by me or by Angela Merkel. Let's pick up on that. There
:05:47. > :05:52.has been a suggestion that actually this will be regarded as a boon in
:05:53. > :05:57.Berlin. There will be a restoration of the strength and the relationship
:05:58. > :06:06.between Paris and Berlin that has been seen as the driver, the engine
:06:07. > :06:09.of progress. If they think that will happen they are running ahead of
:06:10. > :06:12.themselves. Macron needs to establish the kind of person he is,
:06:13. > :06:17.whether he can make France more formal ball. Angela Merkel has to
:06:18. > :06:20.win her mandate. And then, in addition in this day and age that
:06:21. > :06:27.nothing works like access politics anymore. Everything is in the shadow
:06:28. > :06:35.of centrifugal forces which make it pretty impossible in the crowd of
:06:36. > :06:39.the 26 member states of the EU in the old Empire between France and
:06:40. > :06:43.Germany. I do not think it will happen. Germany will be just as
:06:44. > :06:50.eager as all of us around this table as to what kind of president Macron
:06:51. > :06:52.will be. Let's not write off entirely the possibility of the Penn
:06:53. > :06:57.winning for the people going to these things thinking they know the
:06:58. > :07:02.result. -- Marine Le Pen winning. You are foolish in a binary
:07:03. > :07:06.situation to dismiss that possibility. She is a much better
:07:07. > :07:12.candidate than her father was. She was a much more astute politician.
:07:13. > :07:17.Talking of Brexit, the kind of headache from London and for Theresa
:07:18. > :07:22.May is presumably, if there is a stronger voice, it means they will
:07:23. > :07:26.be more closely aligned with European Union and a candidate
:07:27. > :07:30.saying he is in favour of greater integration with Europe and Europe
:07:31. > :07:36.of a better kind, as he might see it. How much harder does that make
:07:37. > :07:41.it for Theresa May? My take on is that the EU has to be very careful
:07:42. > :07:45.to see the majority of Theresa May when she comes back with a larger
:07:46. > :07:49.mandate, choose one of the strongest heads of government in the whole of
:07:50. > :07:53.Europe. It gives her a strong card to play. Simply to treat Britain
:07:54. > :07:59.like a secessionist country which have to be, if not punished, but the
:08:00. > :08:04.way out in brutal fashion. It will be the wrong approach will stop I
:08:05. > :08:08.believe a strong mandate for Theresa May will be not only good for her
:08:09. > :08:13.but good for the EU because some better sense will be obtained in the
:08:14. > :08:19.negotiations. I am not convinced overall that the stronger mandate
:08:20. > :08:24.the British Prime Minister has. I think it is not good news for
:08:25. > :08:31.Theresa May if it is Marine Le Pen, it is the least of our concerns. If
:08:32. > :08:37.it is Macron, he has said it before. He is a reformer and wants to open
:08:38. > :08:43.up the economy. Nobody is very pro-Europe. It means Theresa May has
:08:44. > :08:51.yet not an ally. He will not try to punish Britain but he is like many
:08:52. > :08:55.others, not going to make it easy. The negotiations have not started
:08:56. > :08:59.yet. We saw the Irish bred the Dutch and the Danes form a coalition
:09:00. > :09:06.saying, please don't let trivia catches up on Brexit. We need to get
:09:07. > :09:09.to the big ticket items. Judged from our national interests, Marine Le
:09:10. > :09:13.Pen be a better result for the UK than Macron because she is in favour
:09:14. > :09:17.of countries asserting that independence and leaving the EU but
:09:18. > :09:22.he is not. Just as President Trump, on the question of the national
:09:23. > :09:27.interests, than President Clinton would have been. What does it mean
:09:28. > :09:31.in terms of the relationship? We have had some difficult days since
:09:32. > :09:40.Sunday of last week when the German newspaper published the outcome of
:09:41. > :09:47.what it called the Brexit dinner. What was that about Chris Rock was a
:09:48. > :09:52.deliberate, pre-emptive strike? -- what was that all about? Was it a
:09:53. > :10:00.deliberate, pre-emptive strike? It was about telling the position of
:10:01. > :10:14.Theresa May not to be delusional. I think it was made worse by what
:10:15. > :10:17.Juncker said when he said he was not going to speak British because
:10:18. > :10:24.Britain was losing its influence in Europe. What a silly thing to say!
:10:25. > :10:30.There is something rather convenient about this row for both sides. For
:10:31. > :10:33.the commission to say, to some of the other EU leaders who are saying,
:10:34. > :10:41.go on, you have to punish the British because otherwise our
:10:42. > :10:45.countries will do that. Make it look like it's difficult otherwise why
:10:46. > :10:54.would you mind Jeremy Corbyn Dummett. It goes with the grown-ups
:10:55. > :10:58.and Theresa May. It is that logic. I think there is hostility. In the
:10:59. > :11:02.example we are talking about, I am not dismissing any suggestion of UK
:11:03. > :11:09.foul play along the line. Sample we are talking about, it is from
:11:10. > :11:13.Brussels. -- in the example we are talking about it was the dinner and
:11:14. > :11:18.it was meant to be private. It was rude. If you are trying to establish
:11:19. > :11:22.an environment of trust where you can speak open and honestly behind
:11:23. > :11:26.closed doors and then there is a leak like this, it is a very bad
:11:27. > :11:33.start. If she talked at this dinner about saying they would not pay
:11:34. > :11:38.anything to leave. She took a position which was not part of any
:11:39. > :11:44.real negotiation. I am astonished that impartial journalist to the
:11:45. > :11:52.word of Juncker. We do not know what was said. Why was she irritated if
:11:53. > :12:00.it got reported? It was supposed to be private. Once you get into the
:12:01. > :12:03.game of saying I did say that and did not say that right you are
:12:04. > :12:10.discussing it as well for stuck it is ridiculous what temp Adid. The
:12:11. > :12:14.fact we had Angela Merkel giving the speech were talking to temp
:12:15. > :12:17.Aprivately, I am concerned that people in Britain are having
:12:18. > :12:29.unreasonable expectations is that that was the real view. -- talking
:12:30. > :12:36.to Juncker privately. Brussels are now excusing themselves saying, they
:12:37. > :12:43.understand that sensitivity. It has thrown these grenades into the
:12:44. > :12:49.debate. It seems to have done Theresa May no harm. She has said,
:12:50. > :12:54.stop interfering. At the council elections on Thursday, all the Ukip
:12:55. > :13:00.seats which have been won by the pro-Brexit, anti-EU party, which has
:13:01. > :13:05.caused banks, they all fell back again and the Tories did very well.
:13:06. > :13:10.It did not do any harm in the UK. It was playing to the gallery. Why not
:13:11. > :13:15.do that in the next four weeks of the British election campaign? It
:13:16. > :13:24.will be a landslide for the Tories. Seen from abroad, from Europe
:13:25. > :13:27.perhaps, it was slightly ridiculous seeing her say Europe is
:13:28. > :13:38.interfering, meddling in UK politics. Well, we have other fish
:13:39. > :13:41.to fry. You cannot resist meddling. Got rid of the Greek government put
:13:42. > :13:50.sanctions on the Austrians. It is what they do. Publicly speaking
:13:51. > :14:01.about the dinner and so forth. It was clearly designed to be heard in
:14:02. > :14:06.the UK. It would have been a duty on her part to react like that. But it
:14:07. > :14:13.is an election campaign and she has to fight back. Is there a risk, if
:14:14. > :14:14.she continues down this line, given she has to build the negotiations
:14:15. > :14:19.and conceivably convince the British and conceivably convince the British
:14:20. > :14:27.at some point? We did not get everything we wanted but it is still
:14:28. > :14:32.a good deal. I would say, there are some of us, and I include myself in
:14:33. > :14:35.this, he watched that speech you are decrying and thought, great, finally
:14:36. > :14:41.someone who is standing up for the UK and there is nothing wrong with
:14:42. > :14:44.that. Let's pose the question. A politician would say it is
:14:45. > :14:50.hypothetical but you are all proper analysts. I know you will not dodge
:14:51. > :14:58.this one. What happens if there is not a deal? Well, I think Britain
:14:59. > :15:01.will get on with it, to quote Prince Philip and his mantra. They are not
:15:02. > :15:09.much of a complaining nation. They will find a way to get out of a
:15:10. > :15:14.sticky corner. Britain has always coped with uncertainty is very
:15:15. > :15:18.welcome. Lord Nelson said, at the Battle of Trafalgar, nothing is
:15:19. > :15:24.certain in a sea fight. Something must be left to chance. Chance has
:15:25. > :15:29.very many meanings. It could mean opportunities. As a rule, I am not
:15:30. > :15:33.so negative about it. Germany could not cope with such a degree of
:15:34. > :15:38.uncertainty which now hovers about the British future. Our nerves would
:15:39. > :15:41.collapse under the uncertainties of Brexit. It really comes down to the
:15:42. > :15:51.technical aspects of what really would happen. Is it rules everyone
:15:52. > :15:53.skips back to? Are the terrorists going to be differentially
:15:54. > :16:01.complicated? Are they going to be queues of ten miles of trucks at
:16:02. > :16:08.each side of the border? The train going across the Channel for
:16:09. > :16:14.different parts of it construction. There are all capillary economic
:16:15. > :16:19.stuff. That is the fear, the uncertainty this will all be a mess.
:16:20. > :16:22.There will be less foreign investment from other countries
:16:23. > :16:29.which would think this would be a good base to do Europe from. The
:16:30. > :16:34.Germans cannot cope with that. They are not supposed to put up what is
:16:35. > :16:40.the virtue of Britain? To make free trade deals with New Zealand? And
:16:41. > :16:46.the rest of the world. Growth is higher everywhere than the EU. I've
:16:47. > :16:52.fear leaving the EU without the deal. It takes a long time to look
:16:53. > :17:03.at the agreement between Canada and Europe, which took years and years.
:17:04. > :17:07.When we leave the EU, tariff agreements tend to take a long time
:17:08. > :17:12.because people argue over standards for every item. When we leave the
:17:13. > :17:15.EU, our standard settings will be identical at that point. That means
:17:16. > :17:21.there will be interesting times when one nation will have been creamed
:17:22. > :17:28.off from the EU relatively wealthy, relatively uncorrupt, respecting of
:17:29. > :17:36.trade law, copyright and forth. No deal does not concern you? Exactly.
:17:37. > :17:40.I agree about the transition. You say that. That is if there is an
:17:41. > :17:45.agreement and they move onto a transition period while they
:17:46. > :17:53.negotiate a trade agreement. What if there is no deal on Brexit? We will
:17:54. > :17:55.leave. We will trade on WTA rules. People ask what that means for
:17:56. > :18:02.business. What is interesting is what it means the people, consumers.
:18:03. > :18:06.The European Union's in market is a protectionist customs union designed
:18:07. > :18:13.to keep prices in the EU high and to pay more for goods we would
:18:14. > :18:21.otherwise pay less for by importing it. That is in the interests of the
:18:22. > :18:28.British people. Why can't they buy from around the world now? Because
:18:29. > :18:33.of the customs union. There are low tariffs with the other places. This
:18:34. > :18:37.sounds far too compensated. Let's go some much easier where it is much
:18:38. > :18:44.more simple to understand, where everyone understands the rules of
:18:45. > :18:54.game. When Donald Trump was talking about the restored Middle East peace
:18:55. > :18:54.process, It might be a bigger and better
:18:55. > :19:00.deal than people in this At the time, his remarks provoked
:19:01. > :19:03.incredulity and derision. After all, in Trumpland things
:19:04. > :19:05.are always "bigger and better" This week, though, after meeting
:19:06. > :19:08.him, the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas
:19:09. > :19:10.praised his "courageous stewardship and your wisdom
:19:11. > :19:12.as well as your great negotiating ability" and said there
:19:13. > :19:14.could be an "historic peace treaty" between Israel
:19:15. > :19:20.and the Palestinians. trump the Peacemaker. What is going
:19:21. > :19:23.on? Well, I think, the first thing that is going on is he loves getting
:19:24. > :19:32.people like us to talk about it and he has succeeded. I plead guilty. Me
:19:33. > :19:36.as well. The temptation of Trump is to make you think maybe he is so
:19:37. > :19:41.different he will break the impasse. Maybe with North Korea, he was able
:19:42. > :19:46.to stir things up and get the Chinese to do something new. I think
:19:47. > :19:51.the problem is, he has no follow-through. He has no ideology.
:19:52. > :19:58.He does not have a background to make this work. Look at the S strike
:19:59. > :20:03.in Syria. Missiles go, what is next? His attention moves on to the next
:20:04. > :20:09.thing. With the Middle East, it is fun to stir things up a little bit
:20:10. > :20:14.at the beginning. Now what? There has probably been less... I had
:20:15. > :20:19.spent too much time going to these places while former officials were
:20:20. > :20:26.trying to make peace, it gets involved with the core process. It
:20:27. > :20:29.is great to bask in the glow of Donald Trump for a little while. The
:20:30. > :20:34.Israelis are a little concerned about this. Already there is
:20:35. > :20:42.pushback. The tweet that was put onto the Twitter account by Donald
:20:43. > :20:54.Trump saying it was honoured Peshmerga he was honoured, we do not
:20:55. > :21:03.know why that happened? -- he was honoured. He has sent his own lawyer
:21:04. > :21:07.to do theirs. The thought of Bill Clinton with maps talking to Yasser
:21:08. > :21:11.Arafat at camp David going over individual lines and citizen trying
:21:12. > :21:17.to make the hard calls to make this kind of thing work, that is not
:21:18. > :21:22.Donald Trump. I was there in camp David in 1978. I am biased. I have
:21:23. > :21:26.known the history of the futile negotiations going on. The problem
:21:27. > :21:31.with Donald Trump he thinks the world has been created in his own
:21:32. > :21:38.image. He can say these things. He raises hopes which are unfulfilled.
:21:39. > :21:43.He is playing with people's desire to really make something positive.
:21:44. > :21:47.He cannot just announce this will happen. We will wait to see what
:21:48. > :22:03.will emerge. His announcement means nothing. In 1982, in the bass, he
:22:04. > :22:23.has hope in Tramp. I would be interested to note Trump. -- he has
:22:24. > :22:31.hope in Trump. In the precursor environment, after the non-agreement
:22:32. > :22:35.at Camp David and Arafat did not go with it, it is a bit like Brexit
:22:36. > :22:39.from the European perspective. Nothing is agreed until everything
:22:40. > :22:43.is agreed that began you have got a lot agreed and it falls apart in the
:22:44. > :22:46.Middle East. In Jerusalem, that really in the end is one we can talk
:22:47. > :22:53.about for years and come to a solution. In 1978, they knew
:22:54. > :22:57.personally welcome that the peace agreement was not going to deal with
:22:58. > :23:01.the Palestinian issue. As long as you did not get to grips with that,
:23:02. > :23:04.there will be a cloud hanging over the whole area you can have a
:23:05. > :23:08.bilateral peace agreement and it will not advance the cause of the
:23:09. > :23:12.Palestinian people. What about the argue and that so much time has been
:23:13. > :23:17.spent on the detail? We talked about sitting down with maps and the rest
:23:18. > :23:24.of it. The bold move is what has been lacking. The bold move that
:23:25. > :23:27.Jeff was suggesting that could cause people to think afresh in an
:23:28. > :23:32.environment where it almost feels like every option is like that.
:23:33. > :23:39.Exactly. That is what Donald Trump is doing he has unlocked things by
:23:40. > :23:44.being so different. He did not say he was in favour of a Palestinian
:23:45. > :23:49.state. What is he saying he is willing to do? He is saying he is in
:23:50. > :23:56.favour of a two state solution, they were macro state solution. George W
:23:57. > :24:00.Bush set that out very clearly. I do not think that has changed. What has
:24:01. > :24:06.changed is the optimism which I think is very good. It may not go
:24:07. > :24:10.anywhere. It would be very bad if the United States president arrives,
:24:11. > :24:15.being a cynical about the situation. We would not say that. We understand
:24:16. > :24:20.outside for Saddam limited ability to interfere. The one breakthrough
:24:21. > :24:29.we had in 77, those where players on the ground full if the Israeli
:24:30. > :24:33.government have anything to say about that... It was not that Jimmy
:24:34. > :24:36.Carter calls that that they could give it a bigger contact. They did
:24:37. > :24:40.it at the time because there was fear that Russia could be the
:24:41. > :24:45.overlord over what happened in the Middle East. Nobody wanted that to
:24:46. > :24:49.happen. It was a bold move by Jerusalem. They have a lot more
:24:50. > :24:56.power than it does now and a lot more capacity to make the Israelis
:24:57. > :25:01.concerned. Now the Israelis have managed to make the Republican Party
:25:02. > :25:12.almost a subsidiary. Not really. It is too far. The Republicans invited
:25:13. > :25:18.Benjamin Netanyahu to make a speech. Absolutely unprecedented. It is
:25:19. > :25:24.difficult to pushback on Israel. Nowadays the politics are very hard
:25:25. > :25:28.about that. As Trump is finding, just the tiniest bit possible. Thank
:25:29. > :25:32.you as always. I would have liked to have been a fly on the ball in the
:25:33. > :25:37.Brexit dinner. I think I would be like to be a fly on the wall for the
:25:38. > :25:39.meeting between Donald Trump and Pope Francis.
:25:40. > :25:41.That's it for Dateline London for this week.
:25:42. > :25:43.We're back next week at the same time.
:25:44. > :26:19.You can of course comment on the programme.
:26:20. > :26:20.Hello. Mixed fortunes for many of us today. The best of the sunshine