:00:23. > :00:25.Hello and welcome to Dateline, I'm Jane Hill.
:00:26. > :00:27.This week, we discuss the closing stages
:00:28. > :00:32.of the general election here in the UK,
:00:33. > :00:38.and America's withdrawal from the Paris climate accord.
:00:39. > :00:43.My guests this week are Steve Richards,
:00:44. > :00:49.John Fisher Burns of the New York Times,
:00:50. > :01:10.A warm welcome to all of you. Let's start with the fact that in just a
:01:11. > :01:13.few days from now voters in Britain go to the polls in an election
:01:14. > :01:17.called unexpectedly by Theresa May after she had been on a walking
:01:18. > :01:19.holiday with her husband over the Easter break.
:01:20. > :01:21.In the first couple of weeks of campaigning,
:01:22. > :01:22.the word "landslide" was heard repeatedly
:01:23. > :01:24.in relation to her Conservative Party - less so now.
:01:25. > :01:26.Let's assess the state of the parties and
:01:27. > :01:30.because whoever ends up in 10 Downing Street
:01:31. > :01:32.has to navigate Britain's departure from the EU.
:01:33. > :01:37.Steve, a few weeks ago on this programme,
:01:38. > :01:43.we were calling this election boring - not now.
:01:44. > :01:49.It has been the most interesting election in recent decades, I think,
:01:50. > :01:54.because it has been so unpredictable in so many ways, and I think there
:01:55. > :01:58.is something Shakespearean in politics, which is that when a Prime
:01:59. > :02:03.Minister calls an early election, they kind of break or challenge the
:02:04. > :02:07.natural order of things. And then, having been in control, they find
:02:08. > :02:12.that they have lost control and have unleashed forces out of their
:02:13. > :02:17.control, like Macbeth, kingly and people like that. So when Ted Heath
:02:18. > :02:23.did it in 1974, when he had quite a big majority, the election went
:02:24. > :02:27.wholly against what everyone assumed would happen, and the same in terms
:02:28. > :02:32.of the campaign has happened now. I am not saying the result will be the
:02:33. > :02:37.same, when Ted Heath lost, but all the assumptions that your panel had
:02:38. > :02:41.four weeks ago have been turned on their head, and that is fascinating,
:02:42. > :02:44.and there are deep currents that explain why. Maria Eagle have
:02:45. > :02:49.written that this is the strangest election you have followed, British
:02:50. > :02:54.election. Yes, for some of the same reasons that Steve is talking about,
:02:55. > :02:57.a few weeks ago everyone was saying Corbyn was hopeless, of course
:02:58. > :03:04.Theresa May will win a landslide, and we have seen the polls narrowing
:03:05. > :03:07.dramatically. Just watching the television debates and the way the
:03:08. > :03:11.two leaders are performing on the stump, we are seeing Theresa May
:03:12. > :03:16.increasingly anxious, Nevis, ill at ease, and Jeremy Corbyn really
:03:17. > :03:20.seeming to relish it, partly because he is being allowed to say what he
:03:21. > :03:26.actually thinks, that this is one of the few elections recently where we
:03:27. > :03:31.have a party leader not endlessly triangulating, predicting what they
:03:32. > :03:36.want the electorate to hear, but saying what he believes. What is it
:03:37. > :03:41.that has changed so dramatically? I know that is a big question, but to
:03:42. > :03:46.Maria's point about authenticity, is that what is playing in here? As
:03:47. > :03:49.someone got something right or another party got something wrong?
:03:50. > :03:54.Two things have changed, we must be careful about the opinion polls,
:03:55. > :03:59.they changed, they showed a 25 point lead for the Tories, and they now
:04:00. > :04:03.suggest a significant narrowing. With all the caveats. I think they
:04:04. > :04:08.should be banned during elections, because all we end up doing is
:04:09. > :04:10.talking about polls, and they may be completely wrong. The other thing
:04:11. > :04:15.that has changed is that Theresa May, before calling the election,
:04:16. > :04:19.was seen as a figure of great solidarity, the strong and stable
:04:20. > :04:24.leadership praise was not marked, the ubiquity of the phrase was
:04:25. > :04:28.marked, but not the message. Now she doesn't their use it, so that is the
:04:29. > :04:36.other significant change that has happened over the campaign, she is a
:04:37. > :04:42.rather shy public figure, unusual in British politics. As shown in a lot
:04:43. > :04:46.of public appearances. I think she finds it awkward. Most relish the
:04:47. > :04:51.public stage, many were actors. Jeremy Corbyn is not an actor, like
:04:52. > :04:56.her and he cannot dissemble in a way that is attractive but politically
:04:57. > :05:00.risky. But he is a campaigner, he has campaigned all his life, so he
:05:01. > :05:06.is utterly at ease with a public platform, being challenged - he can
:05:07. > :05:13.do as well. Whereas she clearly hates that side of politics, and so,
:05:14. > :05:17.in a way, I think, as with Ted Heath in 1974, the decision to call an
:05:18. > :05:21.early election, even if she wins by a huge majority, which is still
:05:22. > :05:26.possible, was a mistake, because I think it has altered perceptions of
:05:27. > :05:30.hope. John, how have you been writing about it? Well, I have
:05:31. > :05:35.actually been busy doing other things, but the first caution I
:05:36. > :05:38.would enter here is have we not learned from elections on both sides
:05:39. > :05:42.of the Atlantic, and referendums, not to trust political
:05:43. > :05:49.correspondence and not to trust polls? We have shown again and again
:05:50. > :05:54.a tremendous capacity to misread things. It seems to me that this
:05:55. > :05:58.election was fundamentally impacted by something we have not mentioned,
:05:59. > :06:02.which was the Manchester bombing. George Bush the elder used to say
:06:03. > :06:06.that momentum was everything in politics, and I think it is broadly
:06:07. > :06:10.speaking truth to say that, in this election, all the momentum was with
:06:11. > :06:15.Theresa May until the Manchester bombing. Difficult to work out how
:06:16. > :06:22.much of an impact it might have had, but I think, amongst other things,
:06:23. > :06:29.it's so shook national confidence, it caused people to look again at
:06:30. > :06:33.Mrs May, who as we were reminded again and again during the coverage,
:06:34. > :06:41.was Home Secretary with principal responsibility for dealing with
:06:42. > :06:49.counterterrorism. And you think that will factor into how people...?
:06:50. > :06:52.Well, the whole landscape of the election was different afterwards.
:06:53. > :06:59.Before we came on air, Steve was saying, in 2015, the polls shifted
:07:00. > :07:04.away from Labour in the last week, and I right? No, no, even at the
:07:05. > :07:08.very end, the polls suggested a parliament with Labour the biggest
:07:09. > :07:13.parliament, it was the exit poll. It seems such an improbable thing that
:07:14. > :07:16.Mr Corbyn, rejected by very large numbers of his own Parliamentary
:07:17. > :07:22.party, who know him certainly better than we do, could somehow triumph
:07:23. > :07:26.and bring this country back to the socialism of the 1970s. It just
:07:27. > :07:31.seems to me, on the whole, improbable. Yes, Mrs May has not run
:07:32. > :07:35.a particularly good campaign, she has made some mistakes, she has
:07:36. > :07:37.changed her mind about things, seemed uncertain, and as you say,
:07:38. > :07:42.strong and stable has disappeared from the Conservative vocabulary,
:07:43. > :07:47.but it seems to me that we are still more likely to see a Conservative
:07:48. > :07:56.majority, and probably a larger one than she had entered the election
:07:57. > :07:59.with. Marc? That is one of the problems, she has been at the Home
:08:00. > :08:07.Office, and she has not been a Leader of the Opposition, unlike all
:08:08. > :08:11.the predecessors. The election is so social economic issues, may be
:08:12. > :08:17.international, but not only an immigration, and I think that was
:08:18. > :08:21.her mistake. Also, I was particularly interested in the
:08:22. > :08:25.Brexit thing, who will be the best to get a good deal? That is how it
:08:26. > :08:31.was framed, an election about Brexit. She had to get that out of
:08:32. > :08:37.the way. I think, on the whole, that is what I wrote, that it is May or
:08:38. > :08:44.Corbyn, the Europeans don't care, because at the end of the day, the
:08:45. > :08:46.Europeans have been united about this jingoistic, nationalistic,
:08:47. > :08:53.narrow-minded attitude of the British pre-negotiation, and when
:08:54. > :08:59.Angela Merkel said, and it was a direct message to Mrs May, we will
:09:00. > :09:05.take our destiny in our hands, I say, yes, it is our turn after the
:09:06. > :09:10.referendum. Interesting, I will come to you in a moment, Maria, but
:09:11. > :09:13.you'll thought is that, in terms of a lot of major European countries
:09:14. > :09:19.looking at this, they really don't mind who ends up in Number Ten? They
:09:20. > :09:25.don't mind. Because the British ship has sailed. Yes, because Mrs May has
:09:26. > :09:28.shown that she is not a very good candidate, Corbyn has been a better
:09:29. > :09:35.candidate, and it doesn't matter, they will both face the European
:09:36. > :09:41.Union completely united in making Britain pay - and a hard for
:09:42. > :09:45.quitting the European Union. As an example to others, partly that. It
:09:46. > :09:53.is even not the question, because today Europe is united, Macron in
:09:54. > :09:58.France, Merkel in Germany, to make Europe work without Britain. It is
:09:59. > :10:02.finished, practically. I was just going to ask you whether you don't
:10:03. > :10:05.think that maybe Corbyn's Mork and silly and tree approach to Europe,
:10:06. > :10:09.which he has been talking about in the last few weeks, may be more
:10:10. > :10:15.effective in that case. -- more conciliatory. I am sure that the
:10:16. > :10:21.Europeans preferred to deal with a conciliatory, but if it is Mrs May,
:10:22. > :10:28.who is very hard, no deal is better than a bad deal, they will go with
:10:29. > :10:32.it, but they are united. And that is the thought of Theresa May, she
:10:33. > :10:37.tried to divide, but her attitude is all over the campaign has made the
:10:38. > :10:43.Europeans say, we are united. Marc your confidence in the European
:10:44. > :10:46.Union is admirable, and is as consistent as your disparagement of
:10:47. > :11:01.this jingoistic, as you call it, country that I call home. It seems
:11:02. > :11:04.to me that you are somewhat Pollyanna-ish, if I can use that
:11:05. > :11:10.American phrase, warning about George Soros and the vociferous
:11:11. > :11:15.pressures there will be in the European Union over unresolved
:11:16. > :11:21.questions... All these and resolve questions will be put aside, because
:11:22. > :11:25.the British has made us united. As Merkel said, take our destiny into
:11:26. > :11:33.our hands. My experience travelling in Europe is that Britain enjoy is
:11:34. > :11:36.an enormous amount of goodwill in France, Germany, Italy and
:11:37. > :11:44.elsewhere... Not when it comes to money! They will pay what they owe
:11:45. > :11:48.the European Union. To return to the parochial matter of this British
:11:49. > :11:52.general election, it is interesting, the role that Brexit played, because
:11:53. > :11:58.I think the beginning, it was going to work for Theresa May in that I
:11:59. > :12:01.think people in this country do want, in a very ill-defined way,
:12:02. > :12:07.change, and it looked as if Brexit was going to be the chosen vehicle
:12:08. > :12:11.for that change. And so I was picking up from Labour MPs in the
:12:12. > :12:13.North of England who were saying, this is a disaster, some of our
:12:14. > :12:18.Brexit people are going to vote Tory. But what has happened during
:12:19. > :12:24.the election is some space has opened up for an alternative change,
:12:25. > :12:27.the Corbyn change. Now, I thought that would be blocked... Completely
:12:28. > :12:38.because Brexit would be the chosen vehicle of change, this ill-defined
:12:39. > :12:41.idyll. When it became clear that Theresa May, as well as delivering
:12:42. > :12:46.this ill-defined idyll, would also be putting up taxes, would work out
:12:47. > :12:49.ways of paying for elderly care, all of these things in the real world,
:12:50. > :12:53.and she was brave to say some of these things, some of that sort of
:12:54. > :13:00.fantasy of Brexit being a painless route of change changed in the minds
:13:01. > :13:04.of some voters. And then they look at the Corbyn version. I am not
:13:05. > :13:07.saying he is going to win or anything, but that was one of the
:13:08. > :13:14.other changes, so Brexit has played a part in this campaign, but a very
:13:15. > :13:18.ambiguous and confused one, I think. Maria? What happened with the Brexit
:13:19. > :13:22.vote is that we saw how badly we had been reading the landscape of
:13:23. > :13:28.British politics, have chopped up and churned up and unrepresented by
:13:29. > :13:33.the parties as they were it was. And I think that, instead of, as you
:13:34. > :13:35.said, instead of this being a straightforward Brexit election, it
:13:36. > :13:39.has actually begun to be a conversation about all the things
:13:40. > :13:44.that are wrong, which are, in large part, to do with the state of public
:13:45. > :13:49.services, NHS, schools, et cetera, that conversation has opened up,
:13:50. > :13:52.which is great, but it is a very short time until the election from
:13:53. > :13:57.the beginning of that conversation to the election, which is why it
:13:58. > :13:59.feels so turbulent, I think. I and most surprised how the Liberal
:14:00. > :14:06.Democrats are doing badly, because they represent 48%, and they are not
:14:07. > :14:12.doing well because the British public wants to get out of the EU,
:14:13. > :14:20.and we accepted, there is no doubt about it, and it is much clearer, I
:14:21. > :14:24.respect Theresa May for saying, we need a hard Brexit, let's move onto
:14:25. > :14:27.other things, and the Lib Dems have got it completely wrong by asking
:14:28. > :14:31.for a second referendum. They have miss read that in your opinion,
:14:32. > :14:37.Stephen, what most victory like for Theresa May? If we, let's say, wake
:14:38. > :14:42.up on the 9th of June and the Conservatives are back in power,
:14:43. > :14:46.that is not necessarily enough, it depends on the majority. She has got
:14:47. > :14:52.to increase their majority. Some Tories tell me that even if she gets
:14:53. > :14:56.a majority of 60, that because they began with these epic expectations
:14:57. > :15:02.of a landslide, well over 100, that in itself will become problematic
:15:03. > :15:06.for her, that she will be seen to have failed on one level, however
:15:07. > :15:10.bizarre that is, given that it will be an increased majority. Clearly,
:15:11. > :15:14.if she wins a landslide, the campaign will be forgotten about
:15:15. > :15:19.within ten seconds, and she will become again this omnipotent figure,
:15:20. > :15:22.but only even then briefly, because he then has to climb the mountain
:15:23. > :15:36.called Brexit, and there is trouble for her Florence as she ascends that
:15:37. > :15:40.mountain, however big that majority. Anything and 60 and she is in
:15:41. > :15:43.trouble. That is interesting, that is the benchmark we should be
:15:44. > :15:47.looking out for. Before we talk about climate change, each of you,
:15:48. > :15:52.quickly, what do you think we will be waking up to? I wouldn't dream of
:15:53. > :15:57.making a prediction! Go on! I think we will probably have, I hate
:15:58. > :16:01.predictions, but I think we will almost Italy have a Tory government,
:16:02. > :16:04.but I think possibly Labour and the smaller parties will do better than
:16:05. > :16:10.predicted, and that is an important sign that, you know, in a way, that
:16:11. > :16:13.the consensus that austerity is the only way to go is crumbling, and
:16:14. > :16:19.that something different is happening in politics. Marc? Theresa
:16:20. > :16:25.May will have a large majority, Ireland and 2015 the same thing
:16:26. > :16:32.happened, and I think it would be a good thing for Europe that Theresa
:16:33. > :16:38.May, if she has a huge majority, then we can start the negotiations.
:16:39. > :16:42.John? I think too much perspective of journalists has been formed by
:16:43. > :16:48.the studio politics, the television studio politics of the last week.
:16:49. > :16:51.The debates and so on. To my mind, it may have played into Theresa
:16:52. > :16:56.May's hands because of the shouty and somewhat adolescent
:16:57. > :17:02.finger-pointing performances we saw. Yes, she has been nervous, but she
:17:03. > :17:08.does, to my mind, she has shown some authenticity, including putting that
:17:09. > :17:13.nervousness on public display, so I would say she will get a comfortable
:17:14. > :17:17.majority. I assume that, because that is what the polls suggest, most
:17:18. > :17:21.of them anyway, and that is all we have got to rely on. The factors
:17:22. > :17:25.that were in place, like the collapse of the Ukip vote going to
:17:26. > :17:28.the Tories, the fact that Labour won't make progress of any
:17:29. > :17:33.significance in Scotland, they are still in place, so even though the
:17:34. > :17:36.campaign has been fascinating, we have to work on that assumption. But
:17:37. > :17:42.I say that without really having a clue, none of us can really have a
:17:43. > :17:45.clue. And that is what is making it interesting, we will although in a
:17:46. > :17:47.matter of days. Let's turn now to Donald Trump.
:17:48. > :17:52.from the Paris climate accord, fulfilling an election pledge,
:17:53. > :17:54.but to the consternation of many world leaders,
:17:55. > :17:57.and some political and business leaders in his own country.
:17:58. > :17:59.The Paris Agreement commits nations to keeping the overall increase
:18:00. > :18:01.in global temperatures below two degrees Celsius.
:18:02. > :18:05.The US has joined Syria and Nicaragua
:18:06. > :18:13.as the only countries not party to it.
:18:14. > :18:19.John, this was an election pledge, pure and simple, and he has done it,
:18:20. > :18:23.committed to something and stuck to it. We started with a Shakespearean
:18:24. > :18:31.reference, so I will try one of my own. My schoolboy recollection,
:18:32. > :18:39.Henry IV Part II, the first bringer of unwelcome news hath but a losing
:18:40. > :18:44.office. In this case, I am going to assume that losing office by saying
:18:45. > :18:51.something in mitigation of Mr Trump which, amongst other things, will
:18:52. > :18:55.put my marriage at risk, because my wife said, if you say anything nice
:18:56. > :19:06.about Mr Trump, I will come after you with a baseball bat! OK! So the
:19:07. > :19:11.more vulgar, occasionally at times mischievous, malevolent, brutish
:19:12. > :19:18.figure has not occupied the White House for a very long time, but he
:19:19. > :19:22.did get 63 million votes, and it wasn't because 63 million people
:19:23. > :19:29.were stupid. They wanted the United States Government to turn its
:19:30. > :19:38.attentions to the rust belt, to unemployment, to the concerns of an
:19:39. > :19:42.unattended white working and lower middle-class. Trump did, in this
:19:43. > :19:43.campaign, whilst winning this election, made a very clear
:19:44. > :19:50.declaration that he would withdraw from the Paris climate change
:19:51. > :19:55.agreement. Because it was a strangle an American jobs, you said. That is
:19:56. > :19:58.the first point, the second point that he chose not to engage very
:19:59. > :20:04.much with is that there is legitimate, even if it is minority,
:20:05. > :20:10.science which suggests that man-made climate change may not be quite as
:20:11. > :20:18.convincing a story as we have been led to believe. Another point. The
:20:19. > :20:24.Paris Accord sets targets which many people, including many people who
:20:25. > :20:28.are themselves believers in man-made climate change, think are
:20:29. > :20:31.financially unachievable, financially as well scientifically
:20:32. > :20:37.unachievable, and therefore it is possible that there might be a
:20:38. > :20:43.better accord available through renegotiation. So I do not think it
:20:44. > :20:47.is all bad news. And the last thing I would say about the Paris accord
:20:48. > :20:53.is that if you look closely at the details of it, it is constructed in
:20:54. > :21:00.accordance with the narrative of international affairs, where we in
:21:01. > :21:03.the first world owe a debt to the poorer world, and that has led to,
:21:04. > :21:08.for example is, at arrangements under which India and China will be
:21:09. > :21:17.largely free to continue to pollute, notwithstanding their pledges, large
:21:18. > :21:25.transfers, huge, billion-dollar transfers, particularly from the
:21:26. > :21:29.United States to the third world. And I think we just have to get used
:21:30. > :21:33.to the fact that we are dealing with a new America, a wounded America, an
:21:34. > :21:41.America that wants to attend to its own problems, and we have grown up,
:21:42. > :21:45.since the Second World War, comfortable in the belief that
:21:46. > :21:48.America will always played the good guy in international affairs. Lots
:21:49. > :21:52.of international leaders and businesses have not agreed with
:21:53. > :21:56.this, Emmanuel Macron has done extremely well in some circles by
:21:57. > :22:03.being among those to criticise President Trump quite roundly. Make
:22:04. > :22:07.our planet great again he said on Twitter in English, and it went
:22:08. > :22:17.viral in the US. It is a terrible blow to American leadership, it
:22:18. > :22:24.emphasises the isolation of the new America. In a way, it is great news
:22:25. > :22:29.again for us in Europe, because we have carved a new alliance with
:22:30. > :22:34.China, India and all the emerging countries - the same day as Trump
:22:35. > :22:42.announced that, and there is a new world order going in Europe without
:22:43. > :22:48.Britain, because Britain again has, and Steve will explain why the hell
:22:49. > :22:54.Mrs May did not join the Europeans to criticise that. So I think, on
:22:55. > :22:59.the whole, it is a terrible thing, as everyone agrees, but, you know,
:23:00. > :23:05.the Paris Agreement, it is three years to get out of it, it is a
:23:06. > :23:09.fantastic agreement, it will survive Trump, because he is out in four
:23:10. > :23:14.years - and maybe before. Why do think Theresa May didn't sign that?
:23:15. > :23:18.People have been asking her. Her line is that she expressed publicly
:23:19. > :23:23.and privately her opposition to what he did, but I think there is
:23:24. > :23:28.politics in this, including Brexit politics, a electoral politics. She
:23:29. > :23:31.doesn't want to be seen as part of a European alliance against him in any
:23:32. > :23:39.dynamic, and she needs him after this election, because of Brexit,
:23:40. > :23:43.and that puts in a rather unique position, because she has to watch
:23:44. > :23:46.what she says in terms of that relationship every second of every
:23:47. > :23:53.day. It will be a difficult one to keep going. But it is, I think it is
:23:54. > :23:57.a moment of significance. Climate change can only be dealt with, in
:23:58. > :24:01.the end, by global political coordination and political
:24:02. > :24:06.leadership, and when one of the biggest leaders walks away, that is
:24:07. > :24:10.a moment of some significance. I heard today that the markets can do
:24:11. > :24:15.it, fossil fuels, all kinds of things. You need leadership in this,
:24:16. > :24:18.and it is interesting that you talk about this new dynamic with China
:24:19. > :24:23.and Europe - without Britain, but also now without America, and that
:24:24. > :24:26.will be interesting. I think it will be more important symbolically than
:24:27. > :24:30.practically, because the battle against man-made climate change will
:24:31. > :24:36.continue, I think that the movement towards renewables is economically a
:24:37. > :24:40.strong force. At this point, only 76,000 people are working in coal
:24:41. > :24:46.mining in the United States. And a lot of jobs in renewables. A lot of
:24:47. > :24:50.jobs, but it is part of Trump's very aggressive and divisive style of
:24:51. > :24:55.politics, dividing America yet further by doing this, so already we
:24:56. > :24:58.have 90 mayors and ten governors in the United States saying, we will
:24:59. > :25:01.stick by the Paris Agreement. He is dividing America yet further from
:25:02. > :25:06.the rest of the world. Somebody said America first is becoming America
:25:07. > :25:13.alone, and that kind of isolationism is unsettling, but I think the rest
:25:14. > :25:17.of the world might discover it can get along better than it thought
:25:18. > :25:21.without America. Something underestimated in all of this is, in
:25:22. > :25:30.fact, technological change, for example, the emergence of shale gas,
:25:31. > :25:33.a huge development on the American energy scene, which we will be
:25:34. > :25:39.seeing worldwide in time, and that many of these changes, including the
:25:40. > :25:43.poor performance of renewables in terms of the contribution they are
:25:44. > :25:47.making overall to our energy needs, are changing the picture, and that
:25:48. > :25:52.Paris may, in any event, be overtaken by all of this, and we
:25:53. > :25:57.will need a new agreement, and certainly there is a need for an
:25:58. > :26:03.agreement, I agree with that, but possibly a better one. We will
:26:04. > :26:05.either there, I am afraid. Renewables are doing well, nuclear
:26:06. > :26:12.is the most expensive form of energy. And that is why...! Your
:26:13. > :26:17.wife will be getting the baseball bat ready! We will form a ring of
:26:18. > :26:21.steel around you! Thanks very much, a topic for weeks and months to
:26:22. > :26:26.come, join us again, same time, same place next week if you can. By then,
:26:27. > :26:30.we will know who is in Ten Downing Street, and there will be plenty
:26:31. > :26:34.more to discuss besides. John Shaun Ley if you can next week for
:26:35. > :26:37.Dateline London. For now, bye-bye.