:00:25. > :00:28.Hello and welcome to Dateline London at the end of a week in which one
:00:29. > :00:30.leader held on against the odds whilst another found
:00:31. > :00:34.The unlucky one was Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince,
:00:35. > :00:36.replaced by a relative half his age, an encouraging sign
:00:37. > :00:39.Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May, though,
:00:40. > :00:44.made it to the Brussels summit of European leaders,
:00:45. > :00:46.defying predictions she would quickly be deposed
:00:47. > :00:50.It was the week where her government began negotiating Brexit.
:00:51. > :00:53.Those leading the talks exchanged gifts - a book on mountaineering
:00:54. > :00:59.Just how much of an uphill struggle will it be?
:01:00. > :01:01.With me are Steve Richards, UK political commentator and author
:01:02. > :01:05.Mina al-Oraibi, an Iraqi-British journalist, who's about to become
:01:06. > :01:11.Agnes Poirier, UK editor with the French magazine Marianne,
:01:12. > :01:19.and American writer and broadcaster Jeff McAllister.
:01:20. > :01:28.A warm welcome to you all. Agnes, what did you make of how these
:01:29. > :01:34.Brexit talks began? Being an Anglophile and a fan of Britain, I
:01:35. > :01:41.am saddened by it because Theresa may was allowed to talk after coffee
:01:42. > :01:44.on Thursday's evening dinner and that she was asked to leave the room
:01:45. > :01:47.so that the 27 other European leaders could actually continue
:01:48. > :01:54.their conversations because as Angola macro, Macron said, EU summit
:01:55. > :02:03.is not therefore Brexit talks. First we need to agree on diverse storms
:02:04. > :02:06.and then Brexit talks can start. She came with what she said a fair and
:02:07. > :02:16.serious offer an EU citizens living in Britain and it was unfair and
:02:17. > :02:26.compared to the EU offer. The guaranteed lifetime rights of UK
:02:27. > :02:32.citizens in living in the EU. Britain as for replication but it
:02:33. > :02:37.falls short. Be strong and stable government, she is weak and
:02:38. > :02:44.unstable. It is nothing serious. It does not going very well for the
:02:45. > :02:53.rest. Steve, was it as bad as all that? Yeah. It is very interesting
:02:54. > :02:58.when Theresa may triggered our Google -- Article 50 was betrayed as
:02:59. > :03:02.an act of steely leadership comparable to Margaret Thatcher at
:03:03. > :03:07.her peak. When in reality what she was doing was triggering a sequence
:03:08. > :03:12.where she was passing control of the Manor of Brexit to the rest of
:03:13. > :03:17.European union. That is the dynamic as outlined in Lisbon Treaty of
:03:18. > :03:23.which Article 50 years apart. She can come to summits and it is not
:03:24. > :03:28.weakened position here in the UK, and it is very weak, that has
:03:29. > :03:33.brought this about. It is the dynamic of Brexit as defined by
:03:34. > :03:39.Article 50. Even if she had arrived with a mandate bolstered... If she
:03:40. > :03:43.had had a majority by 200, this would have happened. One of the
:03:44. > :03:52.things they said is we have devolved this. This is negotiation that the
:03:53. > :04:00.commission will handle. You can Google. Other search engines are
:04:01. > :04:07.available. An lots of levels she has not got the leave about because,
:04:08. > :04:13.because of the way this dynamic will now be played out. I agree with you
:04:14. > :04:19.in terms of the mechanics but I do think that at least inside the UK,
:04:20. > :04:24.the way Theresa May is viewed today is so different from where Greene
:04:25. > :04:27.before the election, everything is being interpreted and read by people
:04:28. > :04:35.because of her weakness at the time you have seen Angela Merkel and back
:04:36. > :04:44.COMMENTATOR: -- Emmanuel Macron seeing stronger. We see Britain as
:04:45. > :04:47.weaker on multiple levels. I think that is played in peoples minds is
:04:48. > :04:55.not the reality having negotiation with happened. What did you think of
:04:56. > :05:00.the guests? A walking stick for David geysers, made in the part of
:05:01. > :05:07.France. In return, Mr Davies gave him a book about an expedition to
:05:08. > :05:13.the Himalayas. Perhaps the walking stick can be used in a more forceful
:05:14. > :05:19.fashion its negotiations get to uncharted territory to use. It is a
:05:20. > :05:24.fascinating because she did look like she was bestriding the world
:05:25. > :05:29.like a colossus before everyone predicted the victory and all the
:05:30. > :05:33.steam has gone out. Not just the steam for her personally but this
:05:34. > :05:39.whole project of what is Brexit. The polls are now showing that people do
:05:40. > :05:43.not want a hard Brexit, they wanted economics first Brexit. What is
:05:44. > :05:47.that? How do they get it? What you have to give up to get a soft
:05:48. > :05:51.Brexit? All of a sudden the benefits of staying in the EU under the
:05:52. > :05:57.current deal start to seem pretty good by comparison to what is a huge
:05:58. > :06:00.strain of attention if you look at the Queen's speech, the bill that
:06:01. > :06:04.people are going to be paying attention to be strange, technical
:06:05. > :06:10.getting out of the EU, all these civil servants are being diverted to
:06:11. > :06:14.Brexit things. The has productivity Robins, economic problems, the tower
:06:15. > :06:18.fire shows that has growing inequality, all of the red Tory
:06:19. > :06:28.claims and promises that she made when she first began... Appealing to
:06:29. > :06:31.working people? Capitalism can be made to work you, this thing she
:06:32. > :06:34.said when she first became Prime Minister all went out the window and
:06:35. > :06:41.that is why Jeremy Corbyn did so well. The Tories seem stuck in the
:06:42. > :06:44.courts of Brexit, there is no animating or captivating principle
:06:45. > :06:50.for her orally for the rest of them, as far as I can see. It is very bad
:06:51. > :06:56.time for which is politics. How long can she carry on like this?
:06:57. > :07:02.It depends on her own capacity to cope. In my view, I've Risley did a
:07:03. > :07:07.series for the BBC on all the modern Prime Minister 's basically in our
:07:08. > :07:14.lifetime, British Prime Ministers, some talks to camera, comparing her
:07:15. > :07:17.with any of them I think she's is the weakest position of any Prime
:07:18. > :07:25.Minister in our lifetimes. The reason I say that is partly
:07:26. > :07:28.practical, number ten, which has to counter all these big government
:07:29. > :07:36.departments is wholly under resourced. It is a small machine.
:07:37. > :07:45.Exactly, the best of times it has to be my school -- muscle to compete
:07:46. > :07:50.with the Treasury. The Cabinet feels as if they can do what they want,
:07:51. > :07:54.that they do not have to get her permission because she cannot get
:07:55. > :08:00.rid of them again. She cannot sack these people. So they are stronger.
:08:01. > :08:06.So all that is true and that did not apply to Gordon Brown at his most
:08:07. > :08:12.traumatised, etc. There is that side of it. How long can she carry on?
:08:13. > :08:18.The Tory party do not want a general election. Could you not change
:08:19. > :08:22.leader without that? You could. You need her to voluntarily go at the
:08:23. > :08:29.current situation. No one is doing to wield the dagger like Michael
:08:30. > :08:35.Heseltine in the Shakespearean drama we are living through. She will have
:08:36. > :08:40.to decide. None of us know, including her, whether she is ready
:08:41. > :08:45.for the mountainous ascent with all the wider sense of political
:08:46. > :08:49.impotence. It will be very, very tough on any human being and I think
:08:50. > :08:53.that, in the short term, is the issue. In the medium term, I don't
:08:54. > :08:56.think she will be around for the whole of this Parliament. In the
:08:57. > :09:00.short term it is whether she can handle both and all the other
:09:01. > :09:03.unexpected nightmares that will erupt.
:09:04. > :09:07.What about the contrast with Emmanuel Macron who we saw at his
:09:08. > :09:10.first EU summit as president as well and the man everyone wanted to be
:09:11. > :09:15.seen shaking hands with or hugging or sharing a joke with, even Arnold
:09:16. > :09:21.Schwarzenegger showed up in Paris at the end of the week to offer the
:09:22. > :09:24.terminator's endorsement. And yet already Emmanuel Macron is having to
:09:25. > :09:30.re-shuffle his government because of potential scandal and he has these
:09:31. > :09:33.big domestic political challenges. It could all collapse very quickly
:09:34. > :09:42.for him. We will know pretty quickly if he is
:09:43. > :09:45.astute and shrewd. The four ministers who left his cabinet, it
:09:46. > :09:49.is good for him because they did not belong to his party. He does not
:09:50. > :09:52.need them any more. He has got majority in parliament and he is
:09:53. > :10:02.walking on water and so far, so good. You know how we call him in
:10:03. > :10:06.France? Jupiter. Yes, it is something that is not well known.
:10:07. > :10:14.Explain. It comes from his entourage. They call him Jupiter?
:10:15. > :10:24.That is how he views himself. After spending two years in president land
:10:25. > :10:30.that -- president Hollande government. He is going to pass a
:10:31. > :10:34.law, the majority for it, I do not see how it is not going to happen,
:10:35. > :10:40.that law will enable him to exceed do executive orders on what the most
:10:41. > :10:47.present issues. He is going to make changes to the
:10:48. > :10:50.executive powers. The French president is the most powerful in
:10:51. > :10:57.terms of institutional powers given to him in the Western world. Yes,
:10:58. > :11:05.Jupiter is not quite a Democrat. We will see. To go back on Theresa May,
:11:06. > :11:11.Emmanuel Macron, they have momentum, impotence. Does it change the
:11:12. > :11:16.negotiations? They are applying the rules we have applied before. Angela
:11:17. > :11:21.Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, they do not want the block to allow
:11:22. > :11:29.themselves to be divided on Brexit. And they are not going to allow it.
:11:30. > :11:37.Britain was hoping probably to lead by lateral negotiations, one-to-one,
:11:38. > :11:42.and if this is not happening, is the block is concise and coherent then I
:11:43. > :11:50.don't see... Britain is retreating which is so sad to see. It is
:11:51. > :11:56.being... A tendency of Britain, 20 centred trees. I think it is sad.
:11:57. > :12:02.The magic word was pronounced by Emmanuel Macron and a few people
:12:03. > :12:07.doing that EU summit. Brexit can be reversed. But it was take such a
:12:08. > :12:13.strong leader in Britain to muster the courage and the vision to
:12:14. > :12:24.actually say, look, you know. We should not go. Article 50 was up to
:12:25. > :12:31.make it impossible to get out gracefully. In a sense, Brexit may
:12:32. > :12:36.be moving further away, it becomes an aspiration of goal but we never
:12:37. > :12:43.quite get there, we are in two transitional arrangements. The
:12:44. > :12:46.problem is the clock is running. The sure there will be transitional
:12:47. > :12:49.arrangements. In theory, most of this House of Commons is still
:12:50. > :12:55.committed to Brexit. And committed to delivering that referendum
:12:56. > :13:02.outcome. There are a lot of remain in both parties. I think the Labour
:13:03. > :13:10.leadership is committed to getting out. On the basis of the referendum.
:13:11. > :13:15.But there will have to be transitional arrangements which will
:13:16. > :13:21.mean the UK is still in whilst formally out. Now whether the Tory
:13:22. > :13:25.Prime Minister, whoever that is, can deliver that two parts of their
:13:26. > :13:32.Parliamentary party, is one of the many, many questions as to how ever
:13:33. > :13:34.is this Prime Minister, a sense of this peak nightmare. Let us leave
:13:35. > :13:37.that one hanging in the air. The 800-year-old leaning minaret
:13:38. > :13:39.of Mosul leans no more. The mosque below it,
:13:40. > :13:41.from where the group which calls itself Islamic State proclaimed
:13:42. > :13:44.a caliphate three years ago, was destroyed as IS beat
:13:45. > :13:46.a retreat from the city. The push-back against extremists
:13:47. > :13:48.is taking place in Syria, too and there are signs of reform
:13:49. > :13:51.in Saudi Arabia, a country often blamed for allowing jihadist
:13:52. > :13:54.ideology to take hold. The elevation of Mohammed bin Salman
:13:55. > :13:58.to Crown Prince, aged just 31, is being interpreted
:13:59. > :14:14.as a signal of change. Mina, who is this man and why should
:14:15. > :14:18.the world be taking notice of him? Saudi Arabia is important, we need
:14:19. > :14:25.to take in notice of who is the future leader. He is someone that
:14:26. > :14:30.people in the region know quite well for the last two years after he was
:14:31. > :14:34.named deputy crown prince, Minister of defence, quite close to his
:14:35. > :14:39.father. He is also someone who is young and someone who has brought a
:14:40. > :14:49.diners to Saudi, part through the vision 2020. Some people like to say
:14:50. > :14:53.it is just semantic. Absolutely. Not talking about the economy, you can't
:14:54. > :14:56.just liberalise the economy and lease society behind which I think
:14:57. > :15:02.is an issue around the world because of the new think let's get economic
:15:03. > :15:05.'s deletion thoroughly society. That impetus to try and change it. It
:15:06. > :15:11.comes at a time when the region is going through so many events. You
:15:12. > :15:19.started by referencing the tragedy of Mosul. Also the need to try to
:15:20. > :15:23.make the politics of the region not about secretary and brutal
:15:24. > :15:32.ideologies and try to think how do states function. At the heart of
:15:33. > :15:39.what we are saying in -- seeing in the middle east... Sorry. On the
:15:40. > :15:44.basis of this point about relations between states, what then do we make
:15:45. > :15:49.of Saudi Arabia flexing its muscles so brutally towards Qatar? Recently
:15:50. > :15:57.is an interesting time. I would say you are seeing clarity, not from
:15:58. > :15:59.Saudi Arabia alone, Egypt and other countries are at least adding
:16:00. > :16:04.anything we cannot have a small country in the region that is
:16:05. > :16:09.supporting non-state actors that are supporting groups like everyone from
:16:10. > :16:12.militias in Libya, cutting deals with militias sitting in a row,
:16:13. > :16:21.saying there comes a point where we have two stop. Outside of the
:16:22. > :16:25.region, many of them say the problem is... We have a country in the
:16:26. > :16:29.region that has been supporting extremist elements but non-state
:16:30. > :16:33.actors, whether you have the Taliban having a representative office as
:16:34. > :16:36.though it is an embassy. These are signals that actually have
:16:37. > :16:38.detrimental effects on lives and that is what we are seeing
:16:39. > :16:43.translated in the region. Jeff, is this the consequence of
:16:44. > :16:48.President Trump's recent visit to the region and has very strong
:16:49. > :16:51.message of support to Saudi Arabia? The reporting is that the Saudis
:16:52. > :17:00.felt empowered by the green light that they got from Trump who also
:17:01. > :17:07.pushed very hard to say that he was going to be the pick of the United
:17:08. > :17:13.States, the bat, he had him to his house for dinner. I find it
:17:14. > :17:23.fascinating how the US was like we like Mohammed bin Nayef. Oh, this is
:17:24. > :17:29.America's pic, Mohammed bin Salman. Trump said. I take credit, as he
:17:30. > :17:39.does that so many things. There still is no evident American policy.
:17:40. > :17:46.Despite all the faffing around, one way or the other. We have mixed
:17:47. > :17:50.signals. The president tweets on the question of Qatar, or reference was
:17:51. > :17:53.pointed to Qatar as funding extremism. Brats this will be the
:17:54. > :17:58.beginning of the end of horror of terrorism. We are hearing from the
:17:59. > :18:07.US defence Department from the Pentagon, we are very grateful that
:18:08. > :18:12.Qatar is such a stout ally. We sold 12 billion dollars worth of fighter
:18:13. > :18:17.jets just three days later. This is complicated, of course. The
:18:18. > :18:23.fundamental thing is that Trump does not believe in policy. His mind does
:18:24. > :18:28.not work that way. Remember the cruise muscles into Syria, he said
:18:29. > :18:34.he was going to have make the people in Syria say. He likes to throw
:18:35. > :18:39.something into the middle, get the attention, get the buzz and move on
:18:40. > :18:45.without the complex process that other presidents have had. He has
:18:46. > :18:48.not filled most of the subordinate positions in the State Department.
:18:49. > :18:52.There is no one minding the store except for the guys at the very top.
:18:53. > :18:56.They disagree with each other. There is no way of resolving their
:18:57. > :18:59.disagreements. As long as he is presidents, I think that will be
:19:00. > :19:05.true on almost all foreign policy. Are they seizing a moment where
:19:06. > :19:07.there is a vacuum in terms of Washington's attention and
:19:08. > :19:12.consistency that actually he might make a lot of noise but he is a weak
:19:13. > :19:16.figure at the moment? I think there was a vacuum when Obama was
:19:17. > :19:21.president to when it came to the region. The fact that he had Obama
:19:22. > :19:30.referred to the leaders of places like Saudi Arabia, as Sunni leaders.
:19:31. > :19:32.They think it is less about seizing the opportunity vacuum. There is a
:19:33. > :19:36.moment when they have to stand up and sort what is going out in the
:19:37. > :19:41.region. One of the issues is what is happening in Iraq and Syria and in
:19:42. > :19:43.the US, you are right, you had festival we thought Trump was going
:19:44. > :19:51.to take some action on Syria and then did not. Iran has launched a
:19:52. > :19:55.missile into the heart of Syria. Leaders feel a week we have to take
:19:56. > :20:02.action to control this situation. Steve, we're talking about the
:20:03. > :20:07.imminent feel of Mosul. Is there a confidence now do you think in
:20:08. > :20:13.Western capitals that first Mosul, finally as Linux beat might be
:20:14. > :20:21.brought to its knees with Mike -- Islamic state. The degree to which
:20:22. > :20:24.these territorial holes are fundamental to the potency of ices
:20:25. > :20:29.or whether they just move on to some other place, there is that issue. To
:20:30. > :20:33.go back to the American thing what I find so interesting is what in the
:20:34. > :20:40.end is likely to produce a more stable mood in the Middle East where
:20:41. > :20:44.there was no American policy or the policy priest to be
:20:45. > :20:48.counter-productive. As you are saying about Obama, incoherent and
:20:49. > :20:52.contradictory at different times. In a way, there has been this kind of
:20:53. > :21:01.vacuum for a very long period of time and I am not quite sure whether
:21:02. > :21:04.one territorial recapture has significance compared to that broad
:21:05. > :21:07.context but what do you think? I think it has significance to the
:21:08. > :21:13.poor people who have been subjected to the terror of them back to. I
:21:14. > :21:19.think sometimes we get into these conversations, where we are talking
:21:20. > :21:23.Brexit, if I was one of the 3 million citizens, EU citizens here I
:21:24. > :21:29.would be worried about Brexit. The problem for Iraq and Syria is the
:21:30. > :21:33.fact that not having inherent American Western policy. No one
:21:34. > :21:42.thinks of Boris Johnson as the Foreign Minister. What happens if
:21:43. > :21:47.you declare Isis defeated. You have troops all over the world now but
:21:48. > :21:51.there is no plan for the governance and at least securing these
:21:52. > :21:56.territories. If it is not Isis, some other motion group. If you had
:21:57. > :22:00.groups to fight them, they are fighting forces, Timbuktu is
:22:01. > :22:04.declared defeated. What are they going to do? They are not going to
:22:05. > :22:11.go into jobs that are secured for the country. The danger of what we
:22:12. > :22:16.saw, Agnes, in Libya when the French and the British kind of help to
:22:17. > :22:20.bring down Gaddafi and then their attention was diverted elsewhere and
:22:21. > :22:25.Eve had a lot of people with a lot of weapons with no jobs and not much
:22:26. > :22:32.hope of a future and they end up fighting among themselves. The
:22:33. > :22:36.territory and for power. It is true but France and Britain worked well
:22:37. > :22:41.in responding to an EU mandate which did not exist with Iraq. I would
:22:42. > :22:52.like to go back on that ultimatum with the Saudis, to Qatar and
:22:53. > :22:56.basically Qatar, we are not naive about the dark because France and
:22:57. > :23:02.Britain's economies are tied up with Qatar and we know that Qatar funds
:23:03. > :23:08.terrorism and we can our streets in Europe. What were the Saudis
:23:09. > :23:14.thinking when they asked Qatar to actually closed down, took at ties
:23:15. > :23:22.with Turkey and Iran? I'm thinking what are they hoping. They have ten
:23:23. > :23:30.days to comply so what is going to happen in ten times time -- ten
:23:31. > :23:37.days' time. The last time in 2014, promises were made, the trip was
:23:38. > :23:41.made and everybody said let's make friends but that doesn't seem to be
:23:42. > :23:47.in the Saudi mood right now. It is not just Saudi. We have to
:23:48. > :23:51.remember it is not a front. A country as weighty as Egypt standing
:23:52. > :23:56.behind those shows that there is a problem in the region and you are
:23:57. > :24:00.right in that 2014, there was this problem, and words were accepted.
:24:01. > :24:03.The point of this is less of an automated answering these of the
:24:04. > :24:11.problems that we have highlighted. There is transparency find a
:24:12. > :24:14.solution. Action rather than words, gestures alone are no longer good
:24:15. > :24:15.enough because of the consequence of what we've seen happening in the
:24:16. > :24:23.region. What convinced do have that this can
:24:24. > :24:29.be resolved in a peaceful manner? The UN is speaking about brokering
:24:30. > :24:35.any agreement between them. It has to be peaceful in the long term
:24:36. > :24:38.because the region is so small. There are four mil tyres and so
:24:39. > :24:42.forth. I do not think anyone is thinking let's go have a military
:24:43. > :24:47.solution to this. It has come to a four because it has to do. Too long
:24:48. > :24:52.it has been a point of putting in signals and so forth. It has to be
:24:53. > :24:56.resolved. How long it will take depends on how Qatar responds at
:24:57. > :24:59.this point because I think for the GCC countries, the Egypt, they have
:25:00. > :25:02.made it clear what they want. We have to see what the responses. It
:25:03. > :25:06.cannot be about changing the subject of thing it is about freedom of
:25:07. > :25:11.expression, it really is going to the heart of the matter.
:25:12. > :25:13.Mina, Steve, Agnes and Jeff, thank you but being with us.
:25:14. > :25:15.That's it for Dateline London for this week -
:25:16. > :25:17.we're back next week at the same time.
:25:18. > :25:29.You can comment on the programme on Twitter. From all others on the
:25:30. > :25:40.programme, goodbye. -- from all of us.