:00:24. > :00:26.Hello and welcome to Dateline London, I'm Jane Hill.
:00:27. > :00:29.This week we discuss what the world leaders meeting in Germany
:00:30. > :00:40.We look at continuing problems on India's border,
:00:41. > :00:48.both with China and Pakistan; and also - after an exceptionally
:00:49. > :00:50.busy few months - just how desperate is everyone for a holiday?!
:00:51. > :00:56.Iain Martin, columnist for The Times;
:00:57. > :01:03.Nabila Ramdani, the French-Algerian journalist;
:01:04. > :01:09.Henry Chu, the Europe Editor of Variety;
:01:10. > :01:14.The discussions in the Germany city of Hamburg this weekend involving
:01:15. > :01:16.the World's leaders, come at a delicate time
:01:17. > :01:18.North Korea; climate change; the immigration
:01:19. > :01:26.crisis; Trump in Europe, the list goes on.
:01:27. > :01:29.Iain - President Trump now tells us there's going to be a very fast
:01:30. > :01:46.Yes, so it seems. Good news for Britain, and bad news. The good news
:01:47. > :01:50.there seems to be a trade deal. The bad news, Donald Trump has confirmed
:01:51. > :01:59.at some point he's coming to the UK. Depending on one's review. Britain
:02:00. > :02:02.is a very divided country. He may do us a service, uniting Britain
:02:03. > :02:11.against such a visit. The other big story out of the G20 is the
:02:12. > :02:15.weakening of American power. I am reminded, having seen a lot of these
:02:16. > :02:25.summits some are thinking back to the violence in Nice, Genoa. This
:02:26. > :02:31.backdrop of chaos and extreme violence, 15 years ago, these events
:02:32. > :02:35.were about American power, the projection of American power.
:02:36. > :02:40.America solving the world's problems. That is now clearly no
:02:41. > :02:44.longer the place. Power has become diffused. We focus on Trump for
:02:45. > :02:52.obvious reasons, he is entertaining, controversial figure. He is not as
:02:53. > :02:58.powerful as he thinks. Or as a lot of Americans think. Everybody is
:02:59. > :03:02.nodding around the table. I do agree with what you have just said. The
:03:03. > :03:06.violence we are seeing on the streets Hamburg this weekend is the
:03:07. > :03:13.perfect metaphor for international diplomacy. Intense passions have
:03:14. > :03:16.been aroused. The principal person responsible is Donald Trump's
:03:17. > :03:20.position as the alleged leader of the free world. Hardly an
:03:21. > :03:28.environment for constructive policy making. In the past, summits of
:03:29. > :03:35.these kind used to be all about adhesion and problem solving. --
:03:36. > :03:40.cohesion. Now all about PR and showboating. All the leaders
:03:41. > :03:47.marching off to the next meeting. Posing for these endless pictures.
:03:48. > :03:54.In effect, this testifies to a crisis in confidence, and in fact,
:03:55. > :03:58.the Western consensus so prevalent for many years. People talk about
:03:59. > :04:03.post-capitalism. This is almost posted diplomacy this commentator is
:04:04. > :04:09.far more concerned about misspeaking, that kind of thing.
:04:10. > :04:16.Rather than anything of any substance. No one dares say what
:04:17. > :04:20.they really think? The IDE can get any consensus, let alone policy done
:04:21. > :04:29.at these kind of meetings, frankly absurd. Let's not forget, these
:04:30. > :04:33.leaders can link up at any time, nowadays in the great communication
:04:34. > :04:38.era. The idea of going to get anything done over a very violent,
:04:39. > :04:43.hot and socially awkward meeting is ridiculous. I agree what comes out
:04:44. > :04:49.of these meetings is often bland to the point of pointless. How many of
:04:50. > :04:53.us can remember a communique issued from one of these summits. I don't
:04:54. > :04:57.necessarily think there is a complete break from the past.
:04:58. > :05:04.Interesting you mention 15 years ago from protest against American might.
:05:05. > :05:09.Then you had President George W Bush talking about, for example, imposing
:05:10. > :05:14.tariffs on steel, exactly what is happening today. Continuity with
:05:15. > :05:18.what happened 15 years ago and today. I do agree, the isolation the
:05:19. > :05:23.US is undergoing because of our current leader is not anything I
:05:24. > :05:29.have witnessed in my lifetime. Usually America was seen as ahead of
:05:30. > :05:34.the curve, at least trying to leave. This is America retreating, finding
:05:35. > :05:37.itself not just being shunned by powers that we thought were
:05:38. > :05:43.unfriendly, but those we thought were friendly. When you have won
:05:44. > :05:50.against 19 in a communique against climate change, that says something.
:05:51. > :05:57.That was a process begun by President Obama, the retreat after
:05:58. > :06:01.the disaster of Iraq. I am not associating Obama with Trump given
:06:02. > :06:04.their approach to world affairs is entirely different. Trump may be
:06:05. > :06:09.accelerating the process of America's retreat from the world.
:06:10. > :06:13.Obama took a very different view from Clinton. Even longer than 15
:06:14. > :06:19.years. The tail end of the Clinton era. Demonstrations, the early Bush
:06:20. > :06:24.years. Democrat and Republican leaders saw America in terms of
:06:25. > :06:32.world leadership. Which announced looks ridiculous. That is all driven
:06:33. > :06:39.by Trump. Would not been that different from George Bush's view.
:06:40. > :06:43.Out of Kyoto. The difference with Obama, he did not project the same
:06:44. > :06:49.kind of persona we have become accustomed to with US leaders. His
:06:50. > :06:53.idea of leading was three multilateral organisations. Trump is
:06:54. > :06:58.pulling himself out of that, becoming isolationist. We cannot
:06:59. > :07:02.afford that. Important to bear in mind, while the policy of
:07:03. > :07:09.withdrawing did begin under Obama, there is a vast difference. To date
:07:10. > :07:12.we have the first Detroit dilly Matty Gee 20 where the United States
:07:13. > :07:21.is playing a peripheral role. Significant change from the past.
:07:22. > :07:26.You have four big agenda items. Either the United States is not a
:07:27. > :07:34.part of this, or they're being obstructed. Climate change, for
:07:35. > :07:39.instance. International trade. North Korea has been outsourced to China
:07:40. > :07:44.by President Trump. There is an element of incense and is in the
:07:45. > :07:53.area of counterterrorism. There is more or less a consensus between the
:07:54. > :07:58.G20 countries. Having said that, the problem is the wording of the
:07:59. > :08:03.documents. There has to be a strong enough wording which rarely happens
:08:04. > :08:07.that T20 or any of these summits. The bigger the group, the more
:08:08. > :08:11.difficult to get stronger wording this then comes the matter of
:08:12. > :08:20.follow-up. We are nine years after the economic meltdown, still in
:08:21. > :08:24.austerity. That tells you how much the action which has followed the
:08:25. > :08:31.resolution is taking T20 summits, have done or not done. Beyond the
:08:32. > :08:34.T20 summits, there is strong indication world leaders take
:08:35. > :08:39.bilateral meetings more seriously than general ones. Theresa May met
:08:40. > :08:45.with Donald Trump, they did not hold hands on this occasion this we heard
:08:46. > :08:51.from Donald Trump, saying they will be big trade deals. The reality is
:08:52. > :08:57.Theresa May could be gone before proper negotiations start. As to
:08:58. > :09:04.Trump. This is an example of how the G20 meeting could not come across as
:09:05. > :09:09.more hot air rather than anything being achieved. All about good
:09:10. > :09:16.pledges this which can turn pretty hollow. Are we all saying, the big
:09:17. > :09:22.set piece meetings are worthless? Just have the bilaterals? The nature
:09:23. > :09:29.of those meetings have changed. We have to accept that. For example, I
:09:30. > :09:32.am pretty sure a lot of people in France and Europe would have been
:09:33. > :09:43.shocked at the way the French president and many well Macron was
:09:44. > :09:49.paddling up with Trump. -- getting friendly with Trump. Of course you
:09:50. > :09:53.have two be respectful, but that is different from being friendly.
:09:54. > :09:59.President Macron will have to learn international politics is much more
:10:00. > :10:06.politics than treating him like a buddy. Having meetings like this
:10:07. > :10:14.does serve a purpose. After the financial meltdown there was a T20
:10:15. > :10:18.that focused on having to repair the financial system and came away with
:10:19. > :10:22.good ideas. Right now, with the US being isolated, historically having
:10:23. > :10:28.been the leader and no longer, there is a real deficit. A thought on
:10:29. > :10:33.Theresa May, how she has performed. We mentioned the meeting with Trump.
:10:34. > :10:38.She goes on to a curiouser difficult time in this country. What is your
:10:39. > :10:42.take on how she has performed? Leeway to understand it is think of
:10:43. > :10:49.the leader propped up by the Cabinet. They cannot necessarily
:10:50. > :10:57.agree on a replacement. It sounds cruel, she's a cutout. A cardboard
:10:58. > :11:01.cutout pro minister. This month the focus is on can she make it through
:11:02. > :11:08.to the summer, the Conservative Party conference in October? Will
:11:09. > :11:17.she go by Christmas? Do the Conservatives skip a generation. Go
:11:18. > :11:24.for someone younger. Might be some untried and untested. She is there
:11:25. > :11:29.is a placeholder pro minister. Where that really complicates Brexit, very
:11:30. > :11:33.often, and this is where diplomacy does matter, the connection between
:11:34. > :11:38.leaders. Leaders can bridge the divide. If the talks get bogged down
:11:39. > :11:43.on Brexit, it would need a strong British pro minister to say to
:11:44. > :11:47.Angela Merkel and Macron, there was a gap, a compromise to be done which
:11:48. > :11:52.can make Brexit happen more smoothly than otherwise might be the case.
:11:53. > :11:56.That requires a Prime Minister with confidence and some clout and
:11:57. > :12:01.authority. Which it is fair to say Theresa May does not have.
:12:02. > :12:07.Problematic for the British, in terms of how the negotiations go.
:12:08. > :12:10.Looking at it from the other side. Donald Trump saying things like a
:12:11. > :12:17.trade deal will happen quickly does not mean anything. Does not even
:12:18. > :12:20.know what he's talking about. Sorry to say this, these deals do not
:12:21. > :12:26.happen quickly. They take a very, very long time. Completely
:12:27. > :12:32.misleading people by saying that. As is the EU, trumpeting a trade deal
:12:33. > :12:43.between the EU and Japan which does not exist yet. Taking four, five
:12:44. > :12:49.years. Never thought about climate change? Will it go Angela Merkel's
:12:50. > :12:55.way? The well's biggest polluter is not part of the Paris deal. How does
:12:56. > :13:00.the world proceed with this deal? The rest of the world may continue
:13:01. > :13:03.to do what they have committed today. Without the United States, a
:13:04. > :13:11.difficult one to achieve the targets set in Paris. The only consolation I
:13:12. > :13:16.take from this, in the US you have states, for instance, my home state
:13:17. > :13:19.of California, committed to reducing carbon efficiency. And have much
:13:20. > :13:24.more environmental sense. The idea climate change is real and
:13:25. > :13:27.happening, and needs to be counted as much as possible. Although it may
:13:28. > :13:35.not be happening on federal level, there are states trying to take
:13:36. > :13:41.action. That is so interesting. One of those issues, if big polluting
:13:42. > :13:46.industrial countries are not united, people will say, what is the point?
:13:47. > :13:50.No use being as green as you can be in California, despite its size and
:13:51. > :13:54.economic power, if everyone is not on board. We will see whether China
:13:55. > :14:00.and India live up to their commitments. Good they are pledging
:14:01. > :14:03.to. China has a history of environmental degradation, even
:14:04. > :14:09.though they have policies supposed to alleviate that. Hopefully they
:14:10. > :14:10.will live up to those commitments. We will be discussing that all
:14:11. > :14:12.again. Well before he arrived at the G20,
:14:13. > :14:15.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to Israel -
:14:16. > :14:20.the first Indian PM But he left behind growing
:14:21. > :14:35.tensions and anxiety between his country,
:14:36. > :14:46.Pakistan and China, especially There is a dispute between China and
:14:47. > :14:50.India over the border. The two science disputing the Dili new
:14:51. > :14:59.nation. There was a five-minute chat between the two leaders. The outcome
:15:00. > :15:03.is not known. Neither side has confirmed whether the stand-off was
:15:04. > :15:09.discussed at all. A lot of attention of late. China refusing the meeting
:15:10. > :15:13.to start with, they said the atmosphere is not right for such a
:15:14. > :15:23.meeting. Eventually what happened, there was a meeting of BRIC country
:15:24. > :15:29.leaders. There was a polar side, the two had a chat for five minutes.
:15:30. > :15:35.China has been playing very tough in recent times. The China and Pakistan
:15:36. > :15:43.axis really endangering India at the moment. Of late, this is a bit
:15:44. > :15:47.unusual. In the last 25 years or so, since the peace and tranquillity
:15:48. > :15:51.treaty between India and China things have been going very well. On
:15:52. > :15:55.the trade front, they have been going extremely well, particularly
:15:56. > :15:59.for China. All of a sudden in the last three years, the Chinese
:16:00. > :16:04.approach has become very tough. There is of course a reason for
:16:05. > :16:08.this. At the same time, there is a condition which needs to be sorted
:16:09. > :16:16.out between these two major Asian countries. You are nodding. I'm glad
:16:17. > :16:20.there was a five-minute talk. What concerns me more India and Pakistan
:16:21. > :16:26.are not talking. That border I find much hotter than the Indian in China
:16:27. > :16:31.border. Given what has been going on Kashmir, at the heart of the
:16:32. > :16:36.conflict, the fact both our nuclear armed states. Pakistan doing a test
:16:37. > :16:40.fire Fellaini Killeen missable earlier this week. That seems much
:16:41. > :16:47.more concerning them Pakistan and China. I think in general the
:16:48. > :16:52.tension between India and Pakistan is always at a higher level than the
:16:53. > :16:58.tension between India and China. Between India and China matters had
:16:59. > :17:02.cooled off considerably for a number of years. Nearly a quarter of a
:17:03. > :17:08.century. Between India and Pakistan there is inevitably a face-off. The
:17:09. > :17:15.Kashmir situation is very hot of the moment. As you rightly said, there
:17:16. > :17:20.is no dialogue between the two countries at ministerial level.
:17:21. > :17:25.Maybe the officials will get together at the civil service levels
:17:26. > :17:33.soon. Ambassadors exist in both countries. Rather High Commissioners
:17:34. > :17:38.in this case. Fundamentally, it is a very tense situation between the two
:17:39. > :17:45.countries. What is at stake, it seems to be potentially the defining
:17:46. > :17:54.relationship of the first half of the 20th century. India versus China
:17:55. > :17:58.this a new book, on the retreat of Western liberalism makes that point.
:17:59. > :18:06.Two models tested alongside each other. Both newly capitalist, one
:18:07. > :18:12.autocratic, one Democratic. Whoever wins the battle, as American power
:18:13. > :18:17.declines, the West offers an identity crisis, will become the
:18:18. > :18:23.great power of the future. That is indeed true. China has certainly
:18:24. > :18:30.been off to a much faster pace in the last 30 years or so. Where as
:18:31. > :18:35.democratic injury Dili Mecca India had challenges. At the Mehmedi
:18:36. > :18:42.situation interesting, China and India have slowed down. Part of this
:18:43. > :18:45.meltdown catching up, not quite allowing the two countries to take
:18:46. > :18:53.off as they would have liked to have done. There was a time India grew at
:18:54. > :18:56.10% plus GDP. Remarkable for a country democratic way you have
:18:57. > :19:02.hurdles, court cases to deal with before you can start a project like
:19:03. > :19:10.motorway. In that situation India was doing quite well. Inevitably,
:19:11. > :19:14.the pace is faster in China this ultimately India may get there, but
:19:15. > :19:20.a very interesting two models competing with each other. I do
:19:21. > :19:25.think, it seems to me that China's encroachment on that small disputed
:19:26. > :19:31.territory at the intersection between China, India and Bhutan,
:19:32. > :19:35.where the dispute is all about. All about the budding superpower China
:19:36. > :19:39.trying to expand its sphere of influence beyond East Asia into
:19:40. > :19:49.South Asia. This time around is not an armed conflict. All about a
:19:50. > :19:54.geostrategic Cold War with India. Not the first time they have had a
:19:55. > :20:01.stand-off. One going back to 1962, unarmed one. Tensions over Tibet and
:20:02. > :20:06.along the border. China had emerged victorious. This is the longer
:20:07. > :20:13.stand-off so far between the two countries. We have been talking
:20:14. > :20:17.about America's retreat, going in on itself, in relation to June 20. Does
:20:18. > :20:24.America have a role to play, in relation to China? Between China and
:20:25. > :20:31.India, I am not so sure. What has been commented on a lot, I find it
:20:32. > :20:34.ironic living in China, and being America, is China extending its
:20:35. > :20:42.sphere of influence into places that the US had occupied. Whether it is
:20:43. > :20:46.on climate, the projection of power, through naval forces, for example,
:20:47. > :20:53.in the shipping lanes around Asia, that has historically been the US
:20:54. > :20:57.protecting their shipping lanes. I find it worrisome that China is
:20:58. > :21:04.stepping into the breach. Another sign of American retreating from
:21:05. > :21:10.what had been its historic duties, the role it played. While I am
:21:11. > :21:15.concerned about the decline of America diplomatically. I would not
:21:16. > :21:19.write off the US. Even though it has been through economic turmoil, it
:21:20. > :21:26.has still been by far the most innovative economy on earth. As a
:21:27. > :21:30.believe in democracy, there is something inherently necessary for
:21:31. > :21:35.innovation, competition to happen, you have to have a free society this
:21:36. > :21:42.theft is the problem, the unknowable thing with China, in an autocratic
:21:43. > :21:45.society, can you innovate? You can replicate, become very efficient and
:21:46. > :21:51.successful, but can you produce the answers to climate change? The next
:21:52. > :21:56.wave of the Internet. All the stuff that has come out of America in the
:21:57. > :22:02.last 25 years has its roots in Bill Gates being rebellious, a battle of
:22:03. > :22:07.ideas. I'm not going to go off and during the state-run company, take
:22:08. > :22:13.other people orders. I will go off and innovate and invent, my ideas
:22:14. > :22:18.are better than the other guys. That runs right through American society.
:22:19. > :22:24.Even though America is in a bad place, should not be written off. I
:22:25. > :22:29.would add, if I make the withdrawing from expensive wars will lead singer
:22:30. > :22:37.and economic bounce back for the United States. -- will lead to stop
:22:38. > :22:40.whether it happens under the Trump model, we don't know. Coming out of
:22:41. > :22:44.these very expensive situations in the Middle East and Afghanistan was
:22:45. > :22:51.helpful, and gradually leading to prosperity. That said, there was a
:22:52. > :22:58.strategic agreement between the United States and India which China
:22:59. > :23:04.saw as being against China. An agreement between present Obama and
:23:05. > :23:10.Prime Minister Modi, but that seems to have slipped away under President
:23:11. > :23:16.Trump. Also to do with an arms race. President Modi's visit to Israel
:23:17. > :23:19.testifies to that. Another example of a populist global leader trying
:23:20. > :23:25.to humiliate millions of Muslims around the world. Not only in his
:23:26. > :23:29.own country but neighbouring Pakistan. He wants it betrayed them
:23:30. > :23:36.as the enemy within and threatening externally. Instead of installation
:23:37. > :23:40.to Lee McKenzie DH and can he sees the future in a constant armed
:23:41. > :23:44.struggle, his side being armed to the teeth, being ready to dispatch
:23:45. > :23:46.as many Muslims as possible when trouble arises. I would call it the
:23:47. > :23:58.Israeli model. He has broken decades of support for
:23:59. > :24:08.the Palestinian cause. Tallying up with on a ferry Terry and hawks like
:24:09. > :24:12.Benjamin Netanyahu. He snubbed Palestinian leaders, and also
:24:13. > :24:16.stocked up with weapons. I found it quite outrageous a leader like him
:24:17. > :24:22.chooses to side with the state of Israel, which regularly breaches
:24:23. > :24:26.international and humanitarian laws, whose leaders past and present stand
:24:27. > :24:31.accused of war crimes this who are constantly expanding illegal
:24:32. > :24:36.colonial entity. I found it quite distasteful. Some of the big
:24:37. > :24:43.question is, we will continue to debate. It is July. Every journalist
:24:44. > :24:45.in the UK and abroad is worn out after events of the last few weeks.
:24:46. > :24:47.The Queen has gone on holiday; Westminster can't wait
:24:48. > :24:51.And everyone you talk to seems desperate to get away and forget
:24:52. > :24:53.the troubles of an exceptionally busy few months.
:24:54. > :24:55.How do you all intend to recharge your batteries?
:24:56. > :24:57.Iain, every political corr I know is worn out!
:24:58. > :25:04.The South of France as quickly as possible in three or four days'
:25:05. > :25:10.time. I have never known a period where people are so much in need of
:25:11. > :25:15.a holiday. Brexit, Trump, Britain on a cycle, Scottish referendum. Three
:25:16. > :25:20.or four years of intense activity. Combined with the heat. The
:25:21. > :25:30.political and media establishment in London has gone off its said. Needs
:25:31. > :25:34.to go away for a while. Journalists have trouble switching off the
:25:35. > :25:38.revenue cycle is 20 grams a day. Getting sucked into all of this.
:25:39. > :25:44.Every time there. I remember a time I would go on holiday, come back,
:25:45. > :25:47.catching up with the world. Watching the TV news bulletin, reading a
:25:48. > :25:52.newspaper. Now TV screens are everywhere. You are encouraged to be
:25:53. > :25:57.connected to your devices at all times. Do not do it, switch them
:25:58. > :26:03.off. To me, this is the most enjoyable time of the year. I go to
:26:04. > :26:07.laws to watch Test cricket, go to Wimbledon to watch the tennis. The
:26:08. > :26:13.British Open golf coming up. Looking forward to it. And in nearly the
:26:14. > :26:19.Proms. With Brexit looming, I should go to countries I don't need a visa
:26:20. > :26:22.to visit, I have picked Scotland. I will be visiting the Highlands,
:26:23. > :26:27.which I've never done before. You will love that. Enjoy,
:26:28. > :26:34.well-deserved. Switch off the iPhone. For anyone watching, going
:26:35. > :26:41.on holiday, have a wonderful time. Those who are not going holiday, we
:26:42. > :27:05.will see you over the course of the summer. See you again soon, goodbye.
:27:06. > :27:10.On balance, pretty decent day ahead of us.
:27:11. > :27:13.More cloud in southern areas compared to