:00:26. > :00:29.They're leaders, but are they leading?
:00:30. > :00:32.Donald Trump was treated like - well, royalty -
:00:33. > :00:34.in Paris as the French celebrated their revolution
:00:35. > :00:39.In London, Theresa May was trumpeting a different sort
:00:40. > :00:41.of revolution, publishing the legislation that will take
:00:42. > :00:49.Yet Mrs May is a much diminished figure after losing her
:00:50. > :00:53.parliamentary majority, and President Trump is distracted
:00:54. > :00:55.by the investigation into links between his campaign -
:00:56. > :01:00.It can't be often that they envy Iraq's Prime Minister,
:01:01. > :01:03.but it was Haider al-Abadi who looked like a leader as he held
:01:04. > :01:05.the flag of Iraq aloft on the streets of Mosul,
:01:06. > :01:07.celebrating the rout of Islamic State.
:01:08. > :01:09.To discuss leadership this week, I'm joined by four leading
:01:10. > :01:14.American journalist Stryker McGuire, who's London editor
:01:15. > :01:18.for Bloomberg Markets, Polly Toynbee, columnist with The Guardian
:01:19. > :01:20.newspaper, The Portuguese writer Eunice Goes and Mustapha Karkouti,
:01:21. > :01:42.And leadership. Is he right? It is true we have a leader in this
:01:43. > :01:45.country at the moment, we have an incapacitated and powerless Prime
:01:46. > :01:54.Minister who has lost her majority and has to depend on eccentric
:01:55. > :01:59.Northern Irish MPs. And at the same time, we have a country that is
:02:00. > :02:03.being driven by its people, driven by the results of the referendum.
:02:04. > :02:09.Nobody dares say we're going to look at this again. The people haven't
:02:10. > :02:13.really changed the mind as much as we can see. Some slight move but
:02:14. > :02:17.basically people want out, and yet more more we get into the detail of
:02:18. > :02:21.what I would means, the more shocking it looks for the future of
:02:22. > :02:25.this country. So we are in a state of paralysis, and until people
:02:26. > :02:30.change their mind, a government is forced to continue to do what it
:02:31. > :02:36.increasingly knows is a catastrophe. Eunice Goes, how does it look from
:02:37. > :02:40.the continent as they see Britain's domestic problems and at the same
:02:41. > :02:43.time negotiations are continuing? There will be another round in the
:02:44. > :02:48.week ahead. I think a lot of people are quite baffled with the mess of
:02:49. > :02:52.the negotiations, with a lack of preparation from the British
:02:53. > :02:59.government and the officials are preparing the Brexit negotiations.
:03:00. > :03:03.Every week we hear this is about the reverberations of yet another thing
:03:04. > :03:09.that was not thought through. Like leaving the Euratom. Every week we
:03:10. > :03:12.are learning about ramifications of big things that should have been
:03:13. > :03:17.thought through before the referendum, but we are now two years
:03:18. > :03:21.after. We are analysing. And at the same time I think the European Union
:03:22. > :03:26.is now scenting the weakness inside Theresa May's government. And if the
:03:27. > :03:29.European Union has not changed its habits they are going to exploit
:03:30. > :03:33.that weakness as best as they can. They will try to have the best deal
:03:34. > :03:40.they can from a European point of view. All the charm and niceness
:03:41. > :03:43.thrown at Britain, all the sense that there might be some
:03:44. > :03:49.flexibility, I would be careful with that, because they also sent
:03:50. > :03:53.weakness and the possibility that Britain might in the end not leave
:03:54. > :03:56.the European Union. And that weakness, Polycom is the fault of
:03:57. > :04:03.British voters, because they took away Theresa Mays majority. There
:04:04. > :04:05.was this announcement that we would leave the agency come hell or high
:04:06. > :04:10.water and some backbenchers kicked up a fuss that they might have some
:04:11. > :04:16.sort of agreement and carry on in parallel. That is a demonstration of
:04:17. > :04:19.the problems Theresa May faces. It is a terrible problem, because the
:04:20. > :04:23.British people were lied to about how wonderful it would be to leave
:04:24. > :04:28.Europe but also, underneath it all was real anger at a very bad
:04:29. > :04:33.economic situation where half the population have had no increase in
:04:34. > :04:37.their pay for ten years, housing costs have gone through the roof,
:04:38. > :04:40.and so it was a means of expressing and other anger, which of course the
:04:41. > :04:44.expressed in the General Election that came afterwards. Some will
:04:45. > :04:47.interpret the General Election is people saying, we don't want a hard
:04:48. > :04:53.wrecks it because it is making things even worse. And there is a
:04:54. > :04:58.kind of stasis, but the government written down the middle between
:04:59. > :05:01.people who think it is a disaster to leave, and the lunatics who created
:05:02. > :05:05.this idea, this fantasy of a first place that somehow leaving Europe
:05:06. > :05:09.was going to be the answer to all our problems. And nothing has been
:05:10. > :05:13.resolved between the two halves of the government, and that is why
:05:14. > :05:18.Theresa May stays there, precariously balanced between the
:05:19. > :05:21.two sides will never agree. It's not just the government. When it comes
:05:22. > :05:26.to weakness and rack said, look at the Labour Party. Imagine if the
:05:27. > :05:29.Labour Party were led by a real pro-European and the Labour Party
:05:30. > :05:34.were strongly pro-European. Imagine how different it would be and how
:05:35. > :05:42.much more weakness they would sense in Europe. You can most here that
:05:43. > :05:45.lament in Tony Blair's voice, saying that Labour put himself in the wrong
:05:46. > :05:51.position and when getting some of the blame if Brexit does not work.
:05:52. > :05:56.Having labour will end up there, but it is very precarious, because any
:05:57. > :06:00.Labour seats voted for Brexit. They are inching their way forward,
:06:01. > :06:04.including Jeremy Corbyn. His own instinct might be anti-European, but
:06:05. > :06:10.not that much. If he ever becomes Prime Minister, it will be on the
:06:11. > :06:12.back of the Brexit question. They are trying not to move faster than
:06:13. > :06:20.the people are moving. It's very tricky. A week Europe is not good
:06:21. > :06:23.for the world, no doubt, world stability. And with the changes in
:06:24. > :06:28.America as well. The new leadership in America would take advantage of
:06:29. > :06:34.this shaky situation in Europe to serve its own interests. As far as
:06:35. > :06:39.the Arab point of view, it is the same, they would rather have a
:06:40. > :06:46.unified and strong Europe leading the region. And we have a European
:06:47. > :06:49.leader who is at least giving the impression of that. He sent his
:06:50. > :06:54.Foreign Minister after the Gulf, I am talking about President Emmanuel
:06:55. > :06:59.Macron of France, taking a lot of diplomatic initiative. Now in the
:07:00. > :07:06.Gulf, trying to work as an honest broker. Is he filling a vacuum of
:07:07. > :07:10.leadership? Partly, certainly, there is no doubt about that. His first
:07:11. > :07:17.visit abroad was to Mali in Africa, which is very significant. This is a
:07:18. > :07:24.clear message to the world that we are going to play a part. And he is
:07:25. > :07:31.right doing that. And he should certainly lead Europe as well in
:07:32. > :07:35.this direction. There are huge problems in the Middle East, in
:07:36. > :07:41.Africa, in Asia, that cannot be sorted out. The United States itself
:07:42. > :07:47.cannot sort this out from even the United Nations. Europe has got the
:07:48. > :07:54.weight, the wealth, and certainly the leadership in this way. If you
:07:55. > :08:00.had Emmanuel Macron to Angela Merkel of Germany. Eunice Goes this
:08:01. > :08:03.question of the duality, we are voiced by the engine of Europe being
:08:04. > :08:06.France and Germany. Tony Blair suggested in his comments this
:08:07. > :08:11.weekend that you're also felt diminished by the prospect of
:08:12. > :08:15.Britain leaving, then Europe would be weaker and less influential in
:08:16. > :08:21.the world. Is that how people see it in Brussels, in Paris, in Berlin?
:08:22. > :08:24.They do, but they will never admit to it, and they are also trying to
:08:25. > :08:30.make up for the loss of Britain. Europe is moving very fast and
:08:31. > :08:34.making up for Britain leaving. We need to try to cover the ground that
:08:35. > :08:37.Britain used to cover, and I think it is very significant that Emmanuel
:08:38. > :08:43.Macron was elected at this particular juncture and has lost no
:08:44. > :08:48.time in trying to show that actually France is here, France is back,
:08:49. > :08:51.France is going to be a country that makes a power that makes a
:08:52. > :09:00.difference in the world. It was very significant that his first steps
:09:01. > :09:03.where in terms of strengthening links with Germany and the engine of
:09:04. > :09:08.Europe, and also in steps towards Russia, the right of states, this is
:09:09. > :09:12.about showing that France matters. Like Britain, France is a country
:09:13. > :09:17.that has its delusions of grandeur and wants to punch above its weight,
:09:18. > :09:21.and so far it is early days. Macron is doing very well. He is giving a
:09:22. > :09:27.very different image of France, because in the past ten years under
:09:28. > :09:31.the presidency Hollande in particular France was extremely weak
:09:32. > :09:35.and irrelevant. In European politics and was irrelevant, and Emmanuel
:09:36. > :09:39.Macron seems determined to change that. I much desired dependent on
:09:40. > :09:45.delivering on domestic reform? Because in a sense Nicolas Sarkozy
:09:46. > :09:51.promised it, Francois Hollande promised it, and neither could pull
:09:52. > :09:55.it off. That is the question. Because so far he is presenting all
:09:56. > :09:59.the reforms that Europe has been demanding, in terms of labour market
:10:00. > :10:04.reforms, liberalisation, and so on. He has a parliamentary majority to
:10:05. > :10:12.approve legislation, but what is going to happen in the streets? The
:10:13. > :10:15.streets in France... The irony for Britain leaving now is that at the
:10:16. > :10:20.time of this ridiculous campaign for Brexit began, they said that Europe
:10:21. > :10:26.is falling apart, all Europe is not the future, France is dilapidated.
:10:27. > :10:30.Now suddenly we see a vision where for one thing the European Union is
:10:31. > :10:37.growing faster than we are, we are at the back of the line for G7
:10:38. > :10:41.growth. But France and Germany look very united, very strong. Europe
:10:42. > :10:44.seems to have new strength and energy and enthusiasm, and we have
:10:45. > :10:48.been left behind. We are the ones who are going to feel like the
:10:49. > :10:52.outsiders, unimportant. We will be the flyover zone for anybody else.
:10:53. > :10:58.Nobody will come and talk to us, they will be going to Germany and
:10:59. > :11:01.Paris. I think what Eunice Goes says about the streets, it seems far
:11:02. > :11:04.away, but it is so important, and it is what links to people who are so
:11:05. > :11:10.analyte which is Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump. They were both elected
:11:11. > :11:17.by amazing disaffection and anger at the grassroots level. If they don't
:11:18. > :11:21.succeed, where is that anger going to go? This is something that
:11:22. > :11:28.worries a lot of people, because this is not just France and the US,
:11:29. > :11:32.it is other countries as well. This pent-up anger against the
:11:33. > :11:38.establishment, against anybody who is on top, is Willie dangerous. But
:11:39. > :11:41.does that affect the code of leaders we get? If there is this kind of
:11:42. > :11:45.reaction and they have been elected because of this surge of
:11:46. > :11:47.disaffection, is there a danger that compromises the issue and makes
:11:48. > :11:52.leaders reluctant to leave because they are terrified of getting a
:11:53. > :11:58.similar response, similar anger and similar objection? Certainly, no
:11:59. > :12:02.doubt about that, but in France's case, certainly the establishment is
:12:03. > :12:08.crumbling, it has crumbled. It is gone. This is new blood. We don't
:12:09. > :12:14.know yet. But I think Emmanuel Macron has a better chance, lots of
:12:15. > :12:18.chances to lead France, and within Europe as well. And with Angela
:12:19. > :12:23.Merkel who seems to be at the moment... She is up for election in
:12:24. > :12:27.September and all the surveys suggest you will be re-elected. Yes,
:12:28. > :12:35.but in Britain's case, I think we will wake up one day in maybe two
:12:36. > :12:39.years when Brexit is totally signed off, and we will become poorer. And
:12:40. > :12:50.people will ask, did we leave Europe to become poorer? Which is,
:12:51. > :12:53.fundamentally... But might they also say, and you were hinting at the old
:12:54. > :12:59.ways you really do sometimes behave, might they also say, we are poorer
:13:00. > :13:06.but we are freer? Freer to do what, exactly? Our own thing. Possibly,
:13:07. > :13:11.there is that illusion. I do think it is an illusion, because this idea
:13:12. > :13:16.of national sovereignty, this concept of sovereignty that is being
:13:17. > :13:20.used does not make any sense in the real world. What does it mean to be
:13:21. > :13:27.free and be in control of your own destiny when questions like climate
:13:28. > :13:32.change, even diseases, terrorism, economic growth, migration,
:13:33. > :13:37.questions of technological advancement... They are so dependent
:13:38. > :13:43.on transnational links full stop what a slogan it was, "Take back
:13:44. > :13:47.control". Everybody, wherever they are, any stratum of society around
:13:48. > :13:51.the world, has a sense that everything is out of control. Power
:13:52. > :13:55.is always somewhere else, it is not where I can control it. This is
:13:56. > :13:59.called a democracy, yet I personally cannot control anything. People in
:14:00. > :14:04.some senses have lost the notion that actually democracy is a
:14:05. > :14:09.collective thing, and there is much more me, me, me. I losing my power,
:14:10. > :14:12.and a big win to get back to a certain amount of basic political
:14:13. > :14:16.education as to what it means to govern collectively. Do you think
:14:17. > :14:29.there is any possibility that Brexit won't have an? -- Brexit won't
:14:30. > :14:32.happen? What Tony Blair was talking about, outer circles that we might
:14:33. > :14:36.stay within... It is most too late for that. If we have a transition
:14:37. > :14:42.that goes on and on, almost indefinitely, where we stay as we
:14:43. > :14:46.are while we continue negotiating. After all, the build-up was
:14:47. > :14:50.published this week, 1000 clauses to be debated of technical important
:14:51. > :14:55.things that matter desperately to people's jobs in particular
:14:56. > :15:01.industries, I think it is a possibility. But we spent to much
:15:02. > :15:04.time talking to people like us. I get out there a lot and talk to
:15:05. > :15:11.places that voted to accept, and I see no change -- places that voted
:15:12. > :15:14.Brexit. It will say, I don't want to know, I don't want to know the
:15:15. > :15:18.details, don't tell me that, I just want out. I figured us in the same
:15:19. > :15:23.realm of likelihood is impeachment for Donald Trump. It is possible,
:15:24. > :15:31.but it really doesn't feel likely at this point.
:15:32. > :15:35.After his European tour, Donald Trump is back
:15:36. > :15:40.For him, the big legislative doubt is over the "beautiful"
:15:41. > :15:43.new healthcare bill with which he hopes to replace
:15:44. > :15:46.the Affordable Care Act, the hated - to Mr Trump's base -
:15:47. > :15:52.signature reform of his predecessor Barack Obama.
:15:53. > :15:57.Haider al-Abadi, but does not fight over the health care bill tell us
:15:58. > :16:04.about Donald Trump's approach to leadership? -- Stryker McGuire, what
:16:05. > :16:07.does that tell us? He was always good to be a different kind of
:16:08. > :16:13.leader. He was elected, but he behaves like an oligarch. He is very
:16:14. > :16:17.removed from the levers and the gears and the mechanisms of
:16:18. > :16:24.government. I don't think he could care less about that. With him, so
:16:25. > :16:32.much as personal. This is so much more about a bummer, the person, --
:16:33. > :16:41.Barack Obama, the person, than about people might health care. Between
:16:42. > :16:46.18-20,000,000 people. But he is very removed from that. He just wants
:16:47. > :16:49.things to happen because he wants them to happen, therefore this
:16:50. > :16:54.should happen. He gets angry when they don't happen, and this is
:16:55. > :16:58.causing serious problems for the people who are actually writing the
:16:59. > :17:05.bill. I don't think he wrote the bill. Shocking revelation! He is
:17:06. > :17:10.just not that kind of guy. What is going to happen when that many
:17:11. > :17:17.millions of people have lost their health care in excess elections?
:17:18. > :17:20.This is what's really in trusting. We sort of climate change and now we
:17:21. > :17:24.see it with health care. Local government in the United States, the
:17:25. > :17:30.city 's mother state governments, governors had a meeting recently,
:17:31. > :17:35.this week in Boston, and governors are overwhelmingly opposed, because
:17:36. > :17:42.they are right there, they don't in the dirt with the health care bill
:17:43. > :17:47.and all of its repercussions. And so what is going to happen is there is
:17:48. > :17:51.huge opposition within the Republican party at that level, but
:17:52. > :17:54.even in the Senate. In the Senate you have moderates who are against
:17:55. > :17:57.it cos they don't want all these people to lose their health care,
:17:58. > :18:00.and then you have extremists who are against it because they just don't
:18:01. > :18:06.think there should be health insurance. It depends where you sit
:18:07. > :18:09.which group you regard as moderates in which you regard as extremists.
:18:10. > :18:12.They could say that ideological EB have a position. The point is you
:18:13. > :18:21.could have a coalition of different interests. And I think the
:18:22. > :18:25.hardliners are more likely to wind down the moderates, the moderates
:18:26. > :18:30.are fewer in number. But even if something were to come out of the
:18:31. > :18:32.Senate, they now extended the legislative terms of that that could
:18:33. > :18:40.possibly happen, even if that were to happen, that is far from the end
:18:41. > :18:42.of the story. The point you made earlier, Mustapha Karkouti, about
:18:43. > :18:46.leadership, that the establishment has crumbled in France, the problem
:18:47. > :18:48.Donald Trump has a few wants to lead is that the establishment in
:18:49. > :18:55.Washington still seems very much alive. Very much, certainly. That is
:18:56. > :19:00.his trouble there, he cannot make a lot of changes. He is against a huge
:19:01. > :19:15.wall. The establishment is still strong and sound. Both parties. The
:19:16. > :19:18.idea is the establishment finds it also strange and difficult to deal
:19:19. > :19:26.with the businessman who is still running the White House as a
:19:27. > :19:31.businessman. As we all know, the man has no political experience
:19:32. > :19:36.whatsoever. Parachuted into the White House to run the biggest, the
:19:37. > :19:41.most important, the most influential country in the world. And the
:19:42. > :19:48.largest economy. One could must feel sympathy for him! I think he is
:19:49. > :19:51.extremely powerful in the sense that so far the checks of the American
:19:52. > :19:55.Constitution on his power have not really worked. I think it is
:19:56. > :20:00.extremely worrying when we see the mixing of his private business
:20:01. > :20:03.interests, his family, the way they are all meddled in all areas of
:20:04. > :20:06.American Public policy, in particular diplomacy. This is
:20:07. > :20:10.extremely worrying and is not supposed to happen in a democracy,
:20:11. > :20:13.and yet the two houses of the American Congress are not saying a
:20:14. > :20:19.thing. There are no enquiries, there are no questions. There are
:20:20. > :20:26.enquiries, but there is a kind of normalcy. But he hasn't done
:20:27. > :20:30.anything. His first 100 days have been most vacant and vacuous in
:20:31. > :20:34.which nothing has happened. The checks and balances are working to
:20:35. > :20:40.some extent. He thinks he can just order what everyone's and the
:20:41. > :20:44.result... One thing we have enquiries about is the Russia
:20:45. > :20:48.connection, if there is one, and there are a lot of enquiries into
:20:49. > :20:51.that. We have it catching his family because his son had this meeting,
:20:52. > :20:56.and one of the people at the meeting was apparently a former Soviet spy.
:20:57. > :21:04.Some are involved in Soviet intelligence. And yet it doesn't
:21:05. > :21:09.seem to be hurting his popularity. More than popularity, it seems to be
:21:10. > :21:12.able to carry on. His sons who are running the business of making
:21:13. > :21:16.statements about American diplomacy. I don't think this is normal. His
:21:17. > :21:20.daughter, still in charge of a business, shows up at a G20 meeting
:21:21. > :21:26.I don't think this is normal. It should not be allowed. He is the
:21:27. > :21:31.most unpopular president for this period of time in memory. But the
:21:32. > :21:36.frustration that you are depressing is that it doesn't seem to matter.
:21:37. > :21:40.His so-called base seems to be about 40 present, sometimes it did so
:21:41. > :21:49.little lower, but the problem is until the Republican legislators
:21:50. > :21:53.believe that their own seats are threatened by Trump, they are too
:21:54. > :21:57.afraid to move. So until the mid-term elections, that would be
:21:58. > :22:02.the earliest chance? Or in the run-up to them. Because people begin
:22:03. > :22:08.running early. So they have to make assumptions, they have to make plans
:22:09. > :22:14.based on how they think things are going. And if they are going really
:22:15. > :22:21.badly... You have a third of senators, and you have... Every
:22:22. > :22:25.congressman. Mustapha Karkouti, I started the programme talking about
:22:26. > :22:28.Haider al-Abadi waving the Iraqi flag in Mills. In one sense you
:22:29. > :22:31.would think his task of leadership looks easy. He has just had a big
:22:32. > :22:36.victory, that would give him a boost. But is it as simple as that,
:22:37. > :22:45.straightforward? Is anything straightforward in Iraqi politics
:22:46. > :22:49.quiz night Haider al-Abadi no doubt... The issue is much more
:22:50. > :23:02.complicated than he is trying to portray. Certainly Daesh... The
:23:03. > :23:11.group that calls itself Islamic State. It has been defeated in Iraq
:23:12. > :23:17.no doubt, but this is necessary to do that. But is it sufficient? Isn't
:23:18. > :23:24.the only thing you need to do in Iraq? Not to mention Syria, of
:23:25. > :23:31.course. Iraq itself has got on that front a step forward. But the
:23:32. > :23:37.biggest problem now starts in Iraq which is how to rebuild,
:23:38. > :23:41.rehabilitate positively. Not socially, economically, but
:23:42. > :23:45.politically. You have a new militia which took part in the liberation of
:23:46. > :23:52.muscle. Now they have to have something to do. Exactly, and they
:23:53. > :24:00.are amending a part. This militia, known as a popular mobilisation
:24:01. > :24:05.force, it is inspired by the Iranians Revolutionary guard. And
:24:06. > :24:14.they are demanding political parts to play in deciding the future of
:24:15. > :24:24.Iraq. You think there is something quite important about the idea of
:24:25. > :24:29.the caliphate having fallen with Mosul? The romance of the droopy
:24:30. > :24:33.Berlin from all over the place, that there was a place and this was the
:24:34. > :24:37.perfect Islamic State that would eventually grow and take over the
:24:38. > :24:43.world. Do you think the force of that has gone in terms of
:24:44. > :24:50.recruitment? Yes, certainly. I think the idea of caliphate itself has
:24:51. > :24:58.been used up either deliberately or totally unnecessarily. It had no
:24:59. > :25:03.future right from day one. Don't forget, the vast majority of
:25:04. > :25:10.recruits and non-Arabs. They come from abroad. They are mostly
:25:11. > :25:17.European, which is strange. You have no future with such force within an
:25:18. > :25:25.Arab environment. But the further you are from a Borough Market it may
:25:26. > :25:29.seem. I agree. In a sense, for a time it was a more effective
:25:30. > :25:35.leadership for rallying banner or democratic leadership. It was, that
:25:36. > :25:47.is why the coalition that helped Iraq defeats Daesh, they have been
:25:48. > :25:49.very critical of the' -- criticised by an international, because for
:25:50. > :25:55.propaganda purposes it is important to show to anyone who may be
:25:56. > :25:59.attracted by the romance of the caliphate, that they can have a
:26:00. > :26:07.pretty dramatic, pretty horrific and at the hands of the Iraqi army.
:26:08. > :26:12.Hopefully in that sense the kind of propaganda works. But I think we
:26:13. > :26:22.haven't seen the end of Daesh in the region. No. There are still quite a
:26:23. > :26:33.lot of work to do even in Iraq will stop. Reasons to be full. But I
:26:34. > :26:36.think even Mosul we will find out that some pretty horrendous things
:26:37. > :26:41.happened there and it will make all of us feel very queasy. But yes,
:26:42. > :26:47.there is no doubt that on balance this feels like old. Thank you all
:26:48. > :26:48.very much for being with us. That's it for Dateline
:26:49. > :26:50.London for this week. We're back next week
:26:51. > :26:53.at the same time.