:00:30. > :00:31.Hello and welcome to Dateline London I'm Jane Hill.
:00:32. > :00:33.This week we discuss Ireland's growing fears about the
:00:34. > :00:38.What should the world do about the crisis in Venezuela,
:00:39. > :00:42.And is the Duke of Edinburgh setting the tone for us
:00:43. > :00:46.all, not retiring until the age of 96?
:00:47. > :00:48.My guests are: David Aaronovitch of the Times,
:00:49. > :00:50.Brian O'Connell, who's an Irish writer and broadcaster,
:00:51. > :00:51.Algerian journalist Nabila Ramdani, and Michael Goldfarb,
:00:52. > :01:05.the founder of the podcast FRDH - welcome to you all.
:01:06. > :01:09.The Brexit negotiations are on hold for the summer holiday -
:01:10. > :01:14.but that's not stopped the new Irish Prime Minister
:01:15. > :01:17.expressing his anxieties about the future.
:01:18. > :01:21.Leo Varadker made an outspoken speech in Belfast this week,
:01:22. > :01:23.and called for "unique solutions" to preserve the relationship between
:01:24. > :01:28.the UK and the European Union after Britain leaves.
:01:29. > :01:30.Brian, you're just back from Dublin -
:01:31. > :01:52.A distinct change of tone from Kenny's time. Leo Varadker has
:01:53. > :02:06.decided to distance himself from the UK. Kenny had, since the referendum,
:02:07. > :02:13.said to the other EU members we are very close to Britain and we can
:02:14. > :02:19.help Britain through this. Now, Leo Varadker is saying, in fact, Britain
:02:20. > :02:24.better get on with it. They have to come up with solutions for the
:02:25. > :02:31.border. In politics, as everyone around this table knows, words are
:02:32. > :02:41.important. What does a seamless border mean? If you cannot trade the
:02:42. > :02:46.way you used to? If, for example, the customs union is not there any
:02:47. > :02:54.more? Clearly worried about trade? It is crucial. This is not new. The
:02:55. > :03:02.way which the Irish Governmentmy concerns are expressed is far
:03:03. > :03:11.harsher. Michael? There is two things. The border. The economic
:03:12. > :03:15.border. Seems to be gone. And the more abstract, metaphysical border
:03:16. > :03:25.dividing the island since independence and the source of the
:03:26. > :03:32.Troubles. It is important again. But there is another border. Irish goods
:03:33. > :03:39.usually come by ferry into the islands of Britain and go across
:03:40. > :03:46.into the continent. If that changes, how will Irish goods get to the
:03:47. > :03:52.continent? A much longer at sea voyage unless they can arrange some
:03:53. > :04:03.sort of customs thing you land at Holyhead and exit at Dover. The land
:04:04. > :04:08.bridge, shipping goods to France, go on a ferry to France. But it is a
:04:09. > :04:13.much longer journey, as you say. The problem they have will be the land
:04:14. > :04:18.bridge. If Britain is no longer in the customs union, you cannot build
:04:19. > :04:27.a car park big enough to do the paperwork. Ireland's food industry
:04:28. > :04:31.is first in the firing line and has been since the referendum, the
:04:32. > :04:38.devaluation in sterling. Difficult to grow and produce in euros and
:04:39. > :04:46.sell in sterling in British supermarkets without taking a hit.
:04:47. > :04:50.About 18%, the hit, so far. David, is he speaking because it is obvious
:04:51. > :04:57.and no more negotiations for a few weeks, I will have my say?
:04:58. > :05:00.Expressing real frustration? Everyone I think is incredibly
:05:01. > :05:05.frustrated with Britain. It is quite obvious that the European
:05:06. > :05:12.negotiators are frustrated. There always was a problem after the
:05:13. > :05:16.Brexit vote, the degree to which, not only Britain could actually
:05:17. > :05:25.create a deal which gave the things it but it wanted, which were, some
:05:26. > :05:29.of which, incompatible. Within a structure that suited other people
:05:30. > :05:33.as well. Why should European countries trust a British
:05:34. > :05:36.Government, a British Prime Minister, to deliver on Europe given
:05:37. > :05:43.the politics in Britain given that almost no Conservative I Minister is
:05:44. > :05:47.in a position to deliver on Europe. If it was not for the splits in the
:05:48. > :05:55.Conservative Party, we would not have had the referendum, Brexit, and
:05:56. > :05:58.mucking around getting nowhere. The Government will say, we have this
:05:59. > :06:12.mandate and will continue to negotiate because we have two? We
:06:13. > :06:14.are not where we are... A threat from saying, if we get to the
:06:15. > :06:21.October summit and we do not seek and progress, and citizens' rights,
:06:22. > :06:25.and the financial settlement, if there has not been enough progress
:06:26. > :06:31.on Ireland by then, we cannot move onto the next page until there is.
:06:32. > :06:36.That is the threat Britain faces. The fact is, despite what Philip
:06:37. > :06:41.Hammond says, Brexit will affect every department of life. It will be
:06:42. > :06:46.a major headache, affecting everything from trade, security and
:06:47. > :06:51.agricultural and fishery policies. Ireland does not think it will be a
:06:52. > :06:57.smooth experience. Nor do the rest of us. Dare I say, one of the most
:06:58. > :07:02.perhaps predictable developments Brexit is the record number of
:07:03. > :07:06.British people applying for Irish passports. Hundreds of thousands of
:07:07. > :07:10.applications are being made in the UK and across Europe, and the rest
:07:11. > :07:18.of the world. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't quite a
:07:19. > :07:26.few Brexit pro people among the applicants! We have no way of
:07:27. > :07:35.knowing that. Where is George Osborne's? The primary motivation of
:07:36. > :07:39.many levers and the question is emerging with such force proves that
:07:40. > :07:46.having your cake and eating it isn't really very credible as an option.
:07:47. > :07:51.Crucially, the Irish Republic and Ulster relationship has been stable
:07:52. > :08:05.recently but the Troubles could go up again. The DUP is now closest to
:08:06. > :08:10.the Government... Trade, one of's key concerns. A last note on the
:08:11. > :08:17.peace process, the power-sharing Government? The British and Irish
:08:18. > :08:20.Government are guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement. They
:08:21. > :08:24.compensated structure that took a long time to negotiate and I do not
:08:25. > :08:28.think the British Government is paying enough attention to the
:08:29. > :08:34.north- south structures that are in place. That is the political part,
:08:35. > :08:41.but the economic part is the trade across that order. You cannot have
:08:42. > :08:45.the technological, technical solution to it. They say, for
:08:46. > :08:50.example, you can pay your customs duties on the same way as the tall
:08:51. > :08:57.by having a bar code in the windscreen of the truck. Ask anyone
:08:58. > :09:02.in Ireland what happens if you put a very small, on top of a very tall
:09:03. > :09:09.pole on the board of the Republic and Northern Ireland. The
:09:10. > :09:12.negotiations for Brexit get back under way at the end of August, and
:09:13. > :09:14.we measured the summit in October. There were major international
:09:15. > :09:17.developments in two areas this week, Let's start with Venezuela,
:09:18. > :09:25.and the controversial new assembly - packed with allies of the unpopular
:09:26. > :09:31.President Nicolas Maduro - held its inaugural session this
:09:32. > :09:34.week, amid widespread international The election that brought it
:09:35. > :09:37.in was marred by violence David, how should the rest
:09:38. > :09:58.of the world be treating Maduro? It is difficult for the rest of the
:09:59. > :10:04.world to respond. What do you do? The sanctions against Nicolas Maduro
:10:05. > :10:08.and the leading people in his party. And the reading figures of the
:10:09. > :10:13.governments, the people who are most significantly responsible for what
:10:14. > :10:18.is going on and to the descent of Venezuela into dictatorship, towards
:10:19. > :10:23.dictatorship. You can sanction them personally but it will not alter
:10:24. > :10:27.what they do. The problem is they are now so completely invested in
:10:28. > :10:32.the process of taking Venezuela away from any form of democracy, the
:10:33. > :10:38.place is in such a mess, were they to lose power they would almost
:10:39. > :10:45.certainly be indicted, go to prison. Unless someone can offer Nicolas
:10:46. > :10:48.Maduro and his friends a lovely refuge somewhere with lots of money
:10:49. > :10:52.on a sun-kissed island, it is difficult to see what is the
:10:53. > :10:57.inducements are you can create. I think what the outside world has to
:10:58. > :11:03.do is to give assistance to those people trying to help the Venezuelan
:11:04. > :11:08.people, human rights organisations and so on to try and mitigate the
:11:09. > :11:14.worst effects of what is going on. If the outside world in some way can
:11:15. > :11:18.offer its services as some form of negotiating body to help with the
:11:19. > :11:24.peaceful transition, that is what it has to do. There is no scope for any
:11:25. > :11:27.significant intervention in the affairs of Venezuela. That will not
:11:28. > :11:35.make things better. I don't think anyone will do it. I think that,
:11:36. > :11:42.from what I know of the country, what is interesting to follow is
:11:43. > :11:48.that, for all of the demonstration, you have not had the disintegration.
:11:49. > :11:51.People retreating into the hills, and and forming an insurgency to try
:11:52. > :12:00.and overthrew the Government. The people resisting Nicolas Maduro's
:12:01. > :12:07.moves towards dictatorship are using the right to assembly and is being
:12:08. > :12:14.shut down as they protest. It is a very strange and folding. There was
:12:15. > :12:19.a time in Latin America when there were a lot of left-wing
:12:20. > :12:23.authoritarian regimes. Right-wing authoritarian regimes, people went
:12:24. > :12:30.to the hills. That is not happening now. Colombia is adjacent. They have
:12:31. > :12:32.come to an arrangement with the Government and reaching a
:12:33. > :12:39.post-conflict situation. As in Northern Ireland. In Venezuela,
:12:40. > :12:44.trapped in some early 1970s time warp. There is not much the outside
:12:45. > :12:48.world can do, as David said, the traditional allies of the regime,
:12:49. > :12:54.Cuba is going to transition. There was a a decade ago when Chavez was
:12:55. > :13:02.still in power. Having economic problems and Cuba sent over doctors
:13:03. > :13:09.and aid. I do feel there are many steps to go but it is an internal
:13:10. > :13:17.process. I feel for my contacts in Venezuela, reporting from there,
:13:18. > :13:22.kind of stuck in that terrible situation of 80-90% inflation.
:13:23. > :13:26.Whatever they have accumulated in their lives is worthless and they
:13:27. > :13:35.are stuck. It is terrible. A long way to run? What strikes me is the
:13:36. > :13:38.way people in Britain take a particular interest in Venezuela
:13:39. > :13:41.because Jeremy Corbyn made vague noises about the country and
:13:42. > :13:48.suggesting she was a supporter of Maduro. He is pretty quiet at the
:13:49. > :13:54.moment, Colburn, because he is undoubtedly as baffled by the real
:13:55. > :13:59.situation as we all are. It is clear that Venezuela has been administered
:14:00. > :14:03.in an appalling manner, for decades, and policies have failed. The state
:14:04. > :14:12.could descend into civil war and outright disaster. It is wrong to
:14:13. > :14:18.look at a hugely complicated sociopolitical situation to the
:14:19. > :14:29.Trump prism meaning the Evans are a contest between old right-wingers
:14:30. > :14:34.and Jeremy Corbyn- style left. A propaganda war, in terms of cold War
:14:35. > :14:37.creatures. They have always been problems in South American
:14:38. > :14:45.societies. The real problems are not necessarily caused by governments,
:14:46. > :14:51.but a few families and cartels who amass all the wealth. This creates
:14:52. > :14:54.problems in South American society, the public. It takes more
:14:55. > :15:01.sophisticated solutions than having a left- right political argument.
:15:02. > :15:04.Seeing the whole thing in isolation this is the classic Donald Trump
:15:05. > :15:13.view of the world, presenting things as if they were completely new, is
:15:14. > :15:17.if this has not happened before. He does it with immigration, terrorism,
:15:18. > :15:24.and it is a far from impressive approach to the whole issue. It is
:15:25. > :15:29.quite hard to move away from Donald Trump.
:15:30. > :15:32.Secondly lets turn to North Korea and its continual testing
:15:33. > :15:38.At the time of our conversation, we await a UN Security Council vote,
:15:39. > :15:40.later on Saturday, on a resolution to strengthen sanctions
:15:41. > :15:55.Michael, we've seen Rex Tillerson on a trip to South East Asia,
:15:56. > :16:07.what do you make of the US approach to this?
:16:08. > :16:15.From what we know of life in North Korea, you could buy a 100,000
:16:16. > :16:18.sanctions on it and the regime and its close accolades will survive and
:16:19. > :16:26.the people will continue in their lives. I think that, I hate to go
:16:27. > :16:32.back to Donald Trump... I spoke too soon! One of the things about North
:16:33. > :16:36.Korea, we are paying attention because they claim to have developed
:16:37. > :16:46.intercontinental ballistic missiles that could deliver a weapon of mass
:16:47. > :16:49.destruction, to the continental United States, delivering it. They
:16:50. > :16:55.have tried it. They have not tested it that far. That is why everyone is
:16:56. > :16:59.paying attention. We are obsessed with Donald Trump and he has created
:17:00. > :17:03.his own reality, but another reality covers the whole planet. When it
:17:04. > :17:11.comes to North Korea, I think China and Russia and the governments that
:17:12. > :17:20.really will be the crucial ones. As we have seen, learned one thing from
:17:21. > :17:24.the six months of Donald Trump, he blasters. Makes big talk and
:17:25. > :17:27.speeches in front of his supporters but, in the end, much of his
:17:28. > :17:33.programme never comes into being. With foreign policy, that is a
:17:34. > :17:38.danger because someone somewhere will make a risk adulation and the
:17:39. > :17:44.United States will respond. In the case of North Korea, a few weeks
:17:45. > :17:48.ago, China reinforced its border along the river. This is a sign of
:17:49. > :17:53.who, really, we should be looking at is to control the situation. We will
:17:54. > :18:02.be curious to see what happens with this UN Security Council resolution,
:18:03. > :18:04.just to read it now that's UN security council recommendations
:18:05. > :18:12.mean anything in the long run, anyway. President Trump is
:18:13. > :18:16.ill-equipped, to do with North Korea, as he is with Venezuela. No
:18:17. > :18:23.future in sanctions in North Korea any more than Venezuela because it
:18:24. > :18:29.has not worked in the part. It will hurt ordinary people more than
:18:30. > :18:36.anything else. There is, I suppose, comfort to be drawn from Tillerson's
:18:37. > :18:42.remarks, he said, we are not your enemy but we are threatened by what
:18:43. > :18:48.you are doing. The roots, as Michael says, to some sort of resolution is
:18:49. > :18:54.through Beijing, not the way that Donald Trump is talking to Beijing.
:18:55. > :18:58.The Administration has said that, that is the route, as it sees it?
:18:59. > :19:03.The whole point about North Korea, it does not think in line with the
:19:04. > :19:08.West. A pariah state with a significant arsenal. For that
:19:09. > :19:13.reason, it needs to be taken seriously because it is
:19:14. > :19:23.unpredictable. Always the temptation for the incumbent president, Trump,
:19:24. > :19:29.to tackle niggling situation. It is usually Israel and Palestine, but
:19:30. > :19:31.North Korea is not far off. He has increased military action,
:19:32. > :19:38.negotiations, as options. Or doing nothing at all. Leaving it for his
:19:39. > :19:41.successor to worry about. I would hope that Donald Trump is not
:19:42. > :19:45.encouraged to escalate the situation. I was talking to a former
:19:46. > :19:51.UN ambassador Hu said sanctions will do nothing, it must be about
:19:52. > :19:58.talking, diplomacy is the only route? The central problem is the
:19:59. > :20:02.only Government who can affect things in North Korea and China is
:20:03. > :20:07.more worried about the possibility of the demise of the regime and its
:20:08. > :20:12.replacement by a pro-Western regime than it is worried, at the moment,
:20:13. > :20:20.about the level of sabre rattling from the Kim Jong-un Government. I'm
:20:21. > :20:27.sure both sides of worry. In China, talking about what happens if he
:20:28. > :20:30.overstepped the mark. Why is that remains their basic adulation, you
:20:31. > :20:37.have to assume that the only way you can do with this is by having the
:20:38. > :20:42.Chinese talk the North Koreans down and having the Chinese aware,
:20:43. > :20:50.themselves believing there could be a point in which their own
:20:51. > :20:53.graduation were changed. That is what, in the end, it is all about.
:20:54. > :21:00.You cannot innovate the place was you could form a large parts of it,
:21:01. > :21:06.but as we have been reminded of time and again, the capacity of the North
:21:07. > :21:10.Koreans to hit the South Korean capital, populated areas close to
:21:11. > :21:15.the border, so rapid and great the chances you can completely knock it
:21:16. > :21:19.out before that can happen are slim. If that graduation changes, maybe
:21:20. > :21:22.the other academicians will change. That is conventional artillery. Not
:21:23. > :21:28.just ballistic missiles. A horrendously fraught situation.
:21:29. > :21:34.Prince Philip officially retired this week - at the age of 96.
:21:35. > :21:40.He was the guest of honour at a special Buckingham Palace
:21:41. > :21:44.ceremony hosted by the Royal Marines.
:21:45. > :21:47.As the prince left they played "For He's a Jolly Good Fellow".
:21:48. > :21:50.Many people are now working well beyond the old retirement age,
:21:51. > :21:53.so is the Duke setting the new norm for all of us?
:21:54. > :22:10.Have you been writing about working longer? All of us will have to do
:22:11. > :22:17.it. I'm not sure if we are wanted on television at the age of 96. That is
:22:18. > :22:25.one of the reasons I like to go swimming in Florida, they are fatter
:22:26. > :22:35.than me. If anyone adopts this idea of a television channel for
:22:36. > :22:43.100-year-olds. Good on you, we say, patronising 90-year-olds. It is
:22:44. > :22:59.nice, obviously. It is good to think, especially as you enter,
:23:00. > :23:03.what? The early autumn? The thing is, this is an important subject
:23:04. > :23:09.because we keep hearing, as you said, we have to work longer. Will
:23:10. > :23:16.someone tell employers we have to work longer? There is nothing like
:23:17. > :23:23.the death that comes across a newsroom the minute someone hits 50.
:23:24. > :23:29.That is our business. Across the world, people in implement. Philip
:23:30. > :23:36.worked in the family firm. You can work as long as your children are
:23:37. > :23:41.willing to let you. Most people are in salaried employment. We are all
:23:42. > :23:47.having to work longer. Employers better learn they have to keep us on
:23:48. > :23:52.longer. If they fire enough of us, as we have seen in the US and we
:23:53. > :23:57.will see in the UK life expectancy begins to go back to the old days.
:23:58. > :24:01.People are dying sooner in certain demographics in America because they
:24:02. > :24:05.have been laid off and cannot find other employment. It is not that
:24:06. > :24:11.perfect. Someone should tell the boys in Silicon Valley, the smart
:24:12. > :24:21.28-year-old. Stop inventing robust to put us out of work! David, you
:24:22. > :24:28.were alluding to the fact there was a piece on the BBC today, a
:24:29. > :24:51.93-year-old retiring from a supermarket. Reg Chamakh buttress.
:24:52. > :24:53.-- Reg Buttress. The key to staying in work is self-employment. The
:24:54. > :25:01.ultimate self employment is to be working in the family firm like
:25:02. > :25:10.Prince Philip has been doing. Years ago, the Queen Mother reached 80 and
:25:11. > :25:15.90, I remember my poor mother saying, well, she looks great but I
:25:16. > :25:22.would look that good if I had not washed a cup in my life! I do agree.
:25:23. > :25:28.I don't think the Royal family can set the norm for anything because
:25:29. > :25:35.they are abnormal people. Quite literally an extraordinary group of
:25:36. > :25:38.people living in utter luxury in return for some pleasant social
:25:39. > :25:47.activity. Some quite boring, on some occasions! I don't think you would
:25:48. > :25:54.do the job. This is hardly heavy lifting. Certainly not real work. I
:25:55. > :25:58.think the Queen did a good job in 2011 in Ireland. Much appreciated in
:25:59. > :26:05.Ireland. A lot of people change their view of the British Royal
:26:06. > :26:09.family because of that. I think the Queen has been a munificent public
:26:10. > :26:15.servant with the younger royals can take an example from her. They have
:26:16. > :26:23.quit their military careers already and seem to be far more interested
:26:24. > :26:27.in endless holidays. I think you will find he has stopped his career
:26:28. > :26:33.as a rescue helicopter pilots because he is going to do full-time
:26:34. > :26:37.royal duties. This is hardly heavy lifting, especially in the context
:26:38. > :26:42.of how hard people work nowadays. People go very early in the morning,
:26:43. > :26:50.12 hours a day is the norm. Shorter holidays. Especially in the West,
:26:51. > :26:57.countries including Britain. Certainly in America, one of the
:26:58. > :27:02.hardest working countries I have lived in. Michael, employers, given
:27:03. > :27:08.that we need to keep earning, will have to find jobs for us all?
:27:09. > :27:16.Someone will have to find a job for a lot of people if people are
:27:17. > :27:20.working. Raising the pension age to 68, 70 by the time people who just
:27:21. > :27:27.entered the workforce are finished. Higher still then. People have to
:27:28. > :27:35.realise, they have to change, to be serious, three words - work, jobs,
:27:36. > :27:43.employment. It is employment we do not have. Work, everyone can find...
:27:44. > :27:51.Win the robust takeover, will the older robots be put out of work by
:27:52. > :27:59.the younger robots? Slung out by the new, shiny robots? Until they invent
:28:00. > :28:08.fibroblast to replace us, hopefully we will all be back for the next few
:28:09. > :28:09.weeks at least. Enjoy your summer holidays.
:28:10. > :28:10.That's all we have time for this week.
:28:11. > :28:14.Do join us again next week same time same place.