05/08/2017

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:00:30. > :00:31.Hello and welcome to Dateline London I'm Jane Hill.

:00:32. > :00:33.This week we discuss Ireland's growing fears about the

:00:34. > :00:38.What should the world do about the crisis in Venezuela,

:00:39. > :00:42.And is the Duke of Edinburgh setting the tone for us

:00:43. > :00:46.all, not retiring until the age of 96?

:00:47. > :00:48.My guests are: David Aaronovitch of the Times,

:00:49. > :00:50.Brian O'Connell, who's an Irish writer and broadcaster,

:00:51. > :00:51.Algerian journalist Nabila Ramdani, and Michael Goldfarb,

:00:52. > :01:05.the founder of the podcast FRDH - welcome to you all.

:01:06. > :01:09.The Brexit negotiations are on hold for the summer holiday -

:01:10. > :01:14.but that's not stopped the new Irish Prime Minister

:01:15. > :01:17.expressing his anxieties about the future.

:01:18. > :01:21.Leo Varadker made an outspoken speech in Belfast this week,

:01:22. > :01:23.and called for "unique solutions" to preserve the relationship between

:01:24. > :01:28.the UK and the European Union after Britain leaves.

:01:29. > :01:30.Brian, you're just back from Dublin -

:01:31. > :01:52.A distinct change of tone from Kenny's time. Leo Varadker has

:01:53. > :02:06.decided to distance himself from the UK. Kenny had, since the referendum,

:02:07. > :02:13.said to the other EU members we are very close to Britain and we can

:02:14. > :02:19.help Britain through this. Now, Leo Varadker is saying, in fact, Britain

:02:20. > :02:24.better get on with it. They have to come up with solutions for the

:02:25. > :02:31.border. In politics, as everyone around this table knows, words are

:02:32. > :02:41.important. What does a seamless border mean? If you cannot trade the

:02:42. > :02:46.way you used to? If, for example, the customs union is not there any

:02:47. > :02:54.more? Clearly worried about trade? It is crucial. This is not new. The

:02:55. > :03:02.way which the Irish Governmentmy concerns are expressed is far

:03:03. > :03:11.harsher. Michael? There is two things. The border. The economic

:03:12. > :03:15.border. Seems to be gone. And the more abstract, metaphysical border

:03:16. > :03:25.dividing the island since independence and the source of the

:03:26. > :03:32.Troubles. It is important again. But there is another border. Irish goods

:03:33. > :03:39.usually come by ferry into the islands of Britain and go across

:03:40. > :03:46.into the continent. If that changes, how will Irish goods get to the

:03:47. > :03:52.continent? A much longer at sea voyage unless they can arrange some

:03:53. > :04:03.sort of customs thing you land at Holyhead and exit at Dover. The land

:04:04. > :04:08.bridge, shipping goods to France, go on a ferry to France. But it is a

:04:09. > :04:13.much longer journey, as you say. The problem they have will be the land

:04:14. > :04:18.bridge. If Britain is no longer in the customs union, you cannot build

:04:19. > :04:27.a car park big enough to do the paperwork. Ireland's food industry

:04:28. > :04:31.is first in the firing line and has been since the referendum, the

:04:32. > :04:38.devaluation in sterling. Difficult to grow and produce in euros and

:04:39. > :04:46.sell in sterling in British supermarkets without taking a hit.

:04:47. > :04:50.About 18%, the hit, so far. David, is he speaking because it is obvious

:04:51. > :04:57.and no more negotiations for a few weeks, I will have my say?

:04:58. > :05:00.Expressing real frustration? Everyone I think is incredibly

:05:01. > :05:05.frustrated with Britain. It is quite obvious that the European

:05:06. > :05:12.negotiators are frustrated. There always was a problem after the

:05:13. > :05:16.Brexit vote, the degree to which, not only Britain could actually

:05:17. > :05:25.create a deal which gave the things it but it wanted, which were, some

:05:26. > :05:29.of which, incompatible. Within a structure that suited other people

:05:30. > :05:33.as well. Why should European countries trust a British

:05:34. > :05:36.Government, a British Prime Minister, to deliver on Europe given

:05:37. > :05:43.the politics in Britain given that almost no Conservative I Minister is

:05:44. > :05:47.in a position to deliver on Europe. If it was not for the splits in the

:05:48. > :05:55.Conservative Party, we would not have had the referendum, Brexit, and

:05:56. > :05:58.mucking around getting nowhere. The Government will say, we have this

:05:59. > :06:12.mandate and will continue to negotiate because we have two? We

:06:13. > :06:14.are not where we are... A threat from saying, if we get to the

:06:15. > :06:21.October summit and we do not seek and progress, and citizens' rights,

:06:22. > :06:25.and the financial settlement, if there has not been enough progress

:06:26. > :06:31.on Ireland by then, we cannot move onto the next page until there is.

:06:32. > :06:36.That is the threat Britain faces. The fact is, despite what Philip

:06:37. > :06:41.Hammond says, Brexit will affect every department of life. It will be

:06:42. > :06:46.a major headache, affecting everything from trade, security and

:06:47. > :06:51.agricultural and fishery policies. Ireland does not think it will be a

:06:52. > :06:57.smooth experience. Nor do the rest of us. Dare I say, one of the most

:06:58. > :07:02.perhaps predictable developments Brexit is the record number of

:07:03. > :07:06.British people applying for Irish passports. Hundreds of thousands of

:07:07. > :07:10.applications are being made in the UK and across Europe, and the rest

:07:11. > :07:18.of the world. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't quite a

:07:19. > :07:26.few Brexit pro people among the applicants! We have no way of

:07:27. > :07:35.knowing that. Where is George Osborne's? The primary motivation of

:07:36. > :07:39.many levers and the question is emerging with such force proves that

:07:40. > :07:46.having your cake and eating it isn't really very credible as an option.

:07:47. > :07:51.Crucially, the Irish Republic and Ulster relationship has been stable

:07:52. > :08:05.recently but the Troubles could go up again. The DUP is now closest to

:08:06. > :08:10.the Government... Trade, one of's key concerns. A last note on the

:08:11. > :08:17.peace process, the power-sharing Government? The British and Irish

:08:18. > :08:20.Government are guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement. They

:08:21. > :08:24.compensated structure that took a long time to negotiate and I do not

:08:25. > :08:28.think the British Government is paying enough attention to the

:08:29. > :08:34.north- south structures that are in place. That is the political part,

:08:35. > :08:41.but the economic part is the trade across that order. You cannot have

:08:42. > :08:45.the technological, technical solution to it. They say, for

:08:46. > :08:50.example, you can pay your customs duties on the same way as the tall

:08:51. > :08:57.by having a bar code in the windscreen of the truck. Ask anyone

:08:58. > :09:02.in Ireland what happens if you put a very small, on top of a very tall

:09:03. > :09:09.pole on the board of the Republic and Northern Ireland. The

:09:10. > :09:12.negotiations for Brexit get back under way at the end of August, and

:09:13. > :09:14.we measured the summit in October. There were major international

:09:15. > :09:17.developments in two areas this week, Let's start with Venezuela,

:09:18. > :09:25.and the controversial new assembly - packed with allies of the unpopular

:09:26. > :09:31.President Nicolas Maduro - held its inaugural session this

:09:32. > :09:34.week, amid widespread international The election that brought it

:09:35. > :09:37.in was marred by violence David, how should the rest

:09:38. > :09:58.of the world be treating Maduro? It is difficult for the rest of the

:09:59. > :10:04.world to respond. What do you do? The sanctions against Nicolas Maduro

:10:05. > :10:08.and the leading people in his party. And the reading figures of the

:10:09. > :10:13.governments, the people who are most significantly responsible for what

:10:14. > :10:18.is going on and to the descent of Venezuela into dictatorship, towards

:10:19. > :10:23.dictatorship. You can sanction them personally but it will not alter

:10:24. > :10:27.what they do. The problem is they are now so completely invested in

:10:28. > :10:32.the process of taking Venezuela away from any form of democracy, the

:10:33. > :10:38.place is in such a mess, were they to lose power they would almost

:10:39. > :10:45.certainly be indicted, go to prison. Unless someone can offer Nicolas

:10:46. > :10:48.Maduro and his friends a lovely refuge somewhere with lots of money

:10:49. > :10:52.on a sun-kissed island, it is difficult to see what is the

:10:53. > :10:57.inducements are you can create. I think what the outside world has to

:10:58. > :11:03.do is to give assistance to those people trying to help the Venezuelan

:11:04. > :11:08.people, human rights organisations and so on to try and mitigate the

:11:09. > :11:14.worst effects of what is going on. If the outside world in some way can

:11:15. > :11:18.offer its services as some form of negotiating body to help with the

:11:19. > :11:24.peaceful transition, that is what it has to do. There is no scope for any

:11:25. > :11:27.significant intervention in the affairs of Venezuela. That will not

:11:28. > :11:35.make things better. I don't think anyone will do it. I think that,

:11:36. > :11:42.from what I know of the country, what is interesting to follow is

:11:43. > :11:48.that, for all of the demonstration, you have not had the disintegration.

:11:49. > :11:51.People retreating into the hills, and and forming an insurgency to try

:11:52. > :12:00.and overthrew the Government. The people resisting Nicolas Maduro's

:12:01. > :12:07.moves towards dictatorship are using the right to assembly and is being

:12:08. > :12:14.shut down as they protest. It is a very strange and folding. There was

:12:15. > :12:19.a time in Latin America when there were a lot of left-wing

:12:20. > :12:23.authoritarian regimes. Right-wing authoritarian regimes, people went

:12:24. > :12:30.to the hills. That is not happening now. Colombia is adjacent. They have

:12:31. > :12:32.come to an arrangement with the Government and reaching a

:12:33. > :12:39.post-conflict situation. As in Northern Ireland. In Venezuela,

:12:40. > :12:44.trapped in some early 1970s time warp. There is not much the outside

:12:45. > :12:48.world can do, as David said, the traditional allies of the regime,

:12:49. > :12:54.Cuba is going to transition. There was a a decade ago when Chavez was

:12:55. > :13:02.still in power. Having economic problems and Cuba sent over doctors

:13:03. > :13:09.and aid. I do feel there are many steps to go but it is an internal

:13:10. > :13:17.process. I feel for my contacts in Venezuela, reporting from there,

:13:18. > :13:22.kind of stuck in that terrible situation of 80-90% inflation.

:13:23. > :13:26.Whatever they have accumulated in their lives is worthless and they

:13:27. > :13:35.are stuck. It is terrible. A long way to run? What strikes me is the

:13:36. > :13:38.way people in Britain take a particular interest in Venezuela

:13:39. > :13:41.because Jeremy Corbyn made vague noises about the country and

:13:42. > :13:48.suggesting she was a supporter of Maduro. He is pretty quiet at the

:13:49. > :13:54.moment, Colburn, because he is undoubtedly as baffled by the real

:13:55. > :13:59.situation as we all are. It is clear that Venezuela has been administered

:14:00. > :14:03.in an appalling manner, for decades, and policies have failed. The state

:14:04. > :14:12.could descend into civil war and outright disaster. It is wrong to

:14:13. > :14:18.look at a hugely complicated sociopolitical situation to the

:14:19. > :14:29.Trump prism meaning the Evans are a contest between old right-wingers

:14:30. > :14:34.and Jeremy Corbyn- style left. A propaganda war, in terms of cold War

:14:35. > :14:37.creatures. They have always been problems in South American

:14:38. > :14:45.societies. The real problems are not necessarily caused by governments,

:14:46. > :14:51.but a few families and cartels who amass all the wealth. This creates

:14:52. > :14:54.problems in South American society, the public. It takes more

:14:55. > :15:01.sophisticated solutions than having a left- right political argument.

:15:02. > :15:04.Seeing the whole thing in isolation this is the classic Donald Trump

:15:05. > :15:13.view of the world, presenting things as if they were completely new, is

:15:14. > :15:17.if this has not happened before. He does it with immigration, terrorism,

:15:18. > :15:24.and it is a far from impressive approach to the whole issue. It is

:15:25. > :15:29.quite hard to move away from Donald Trump.

:15:30. > :15:32.Secondly lets turn to North Korea and its continual testing

:15:33. > :15:38.At the time of our conversation, we await a UN Security Council vote,

:15:39. > :15:40.later on Saturday, on a resolution to strengthen sanctions

:15:41. > :15:55.Michael, we've seen Rex Tillerson on a trip to South East Asia,

:15:56. > :16:07.what do you make of the US approach to this?

:16:08. > :16:15.From what we know of life in North Korea, you could buy a 100,000

:16:16. > :16:18.sanctions on it and the regime and its close accolades will survive and

:16:19. > :16:26.the people will continue in their lives. I think that, I hate to go

:16:27. > :16:32.back to Donald Trump... I spoke too soon! One of the things about North

:16:33. > :16:36.Korea, we are paying attention because they claim to have developed

:16:37. > :16:46.intercontinental ballistic missiles that could deliver a weapon of mass

:16:47. > :16:49.destruction, to the continental United States, delivering it. They

:16:50. > :16:55.have tried it. They have not tested it that far. That is why everyone is

:16:56. > :16:59.paying attention. We are obsessed with Donald Trump and he has created

:17:00. > :17:03.his own reality, but another reality covers the whole planet. When it

:17:04. > :17:11.comes to North Korea, I think China and Russia and the governments that

:17:12. > :17:20.really will be the crucial ones. As we have seen, learned one thing from

:17:21. > :17:24.the six months of Donald Trump, he blasters. Makes big talk and

:17:25. > :17:27.speeches in front of his supporters but, in the end, much of his

:17:28. > :17:33.programme never comes into being. With foreign policy, that is a

:17:34. > :17:38.danger because someone somewhere will make a risk adulation and the

:17:39. > :17:44.United States will respond. In the case of North Korea, a few weeks

:17:45. > :17:48.ago, China reinforced its border along the river. This is a sign of

:17:49. > :17:53.who, really, we should be looking at is to control the situation. We will

:17:54. > :18:02.be curious to see what happens with this UN Security Council resolution,

:18:03. > :18:04.just to read it now that's UN security council recommendations

:18:05. > :18:12.mean anything in the long run, anyway. President Trump is

:18:13. > :18:16.ill-equipped, to do with North Korea, as he is with Venezuela. No

:18:17. > :18:23.future in sanctions in North Korea any more than Venezuela because it

:18:24. > :18:29.has not worked in the part. It will hurt ordinary people more than

:18:30. > :18:36.anything else. There is, I suppose, comfort to be drawn from Tillerson's

:18:37. > :18:42.remarks, he said, we are not your enemy but we are threatened by what

:18:43. > :18:48.you are doing. The roots, as Michael says, to some sort of resolution is

:18:49. > :18:54.through Beijing, not the way that Donald Trump is talking to Beijing.

:18:55. > :18:58.The Administration has said that, that is the route, as it sees it?

:18:59. > :19:03.The whole point about North Korea, it does not think in line with the

:19:04. > :19:08.West. A pariah state with a significant arsenal. For that

:19:09. > :19:13.reason, it needs to be taken seriously because it is

:19:14. > :19:23.unpredictable. Always the temptation for the incumbent president, Trump,

:19:24. > :19:29.to tackle niggling situation. It is usually Israel and Palestine, but

:19:30. > :19:31.North Korea is not far off. He has increased military action,

:19:32. > :19:38.negotiations, as options. Or doing nothing at all. Leaving it for his

:19:39. > :19:41.successor to worry about. I would hope that Donald Trump is not

:19:42. > :19:45.encouraged to escalate the situation. I was talking to a former

:19:46. > :19:51.UN ambassador Hu said sanctions will do nothing, it must be about

:19:52. > :19:58.talking, diplomacy is the only route? The central problem is the

:19:59. > :20:02.only Government who can affect things in North Korea and China is

:20:03. > :20:07.more worried about the possibility of the demise of the regime and its

:20:08. > :20:12.replacement by a pro-Western regime than it is worried, at the moment,

:20:13. > :20:20.about the level of sabre rattling from the Kim Jong-un Government. I'm

:20:21. > :20:27.sure both sides of worry. In China, talking about what happens if he

:20:28. > :20:30.overstepped the mark. Why is that remains their basic adulation, you

:20:31. > :20:37.have to assume that the only way you can do with this is by having the

:20:38. > :20:42.Chinese talk the North Koreans down and having the Chinese aware,

:20:43. > :20:50.themselves believing there could be a point in which their own

:20:51. > :20:53.graduation were changed. That is what, in the end, it is all about.

:20:54. > :21:00.You cannot innovate the place was you could form a large parts of it,

:21:01. > :21:06.but as we have been reminded of time and again, the capacity of the North

:21:07. > :21:10.Koreans to hit the South Korean capital, populated areas close to

:21:11. > :21:15.the border, so rapid and great the chances you can completely knock it

:21:16. > :21:19.out before that can happen are slim. If that graduation changes, maybe

:21:20. > :21:22.the other academicians will change. That is conventional artillery. Not

:21:23. > :21:28.just ballistic missiles. A horrendously fraught situation.

:21:29. > :21:34.Prince Philip officially retired this week - at the age of 96.

:21:35. > :21:40.He was the guest of honour at a special Buckingham Palace

:21:41. > :21:44.ceremony hosted by the Royal Marines.

:21:45. > :21:47.As the prince left they played "For He's a Jolly Good Fellow".

:21:48. > :21:50.Many people are now working well beyond the old retirement age,

:21:51. > :21:53.so is the Duke setting the new norm for all of us?

:21:54. > :22:10.Have you been writing about working longer? All of us will have to do

:22:11. > :22:17.it. I'm not sure if we are wanted on television at the age of 96. That is

:22:18. > :22:25.one of the reasons I like to go swimming in Florida, they are fatter

:22:26. > :22:35.than me. If anyone adopts this idea of a television channel for

:22:36. > :22:43.100-year-olds. Good on you, we say, patronising 90-year-olds. It is

:22:44. > :22:59.nice, obviously. It is good to think, especially as you enter,

:23:00. > :23:03.what? The early autumn? The thing is, this is an important subject

:23:04. > :23:09.because we keep hearing, as you said, we have to work longer. Will

:23:10. > :23:16.someone tell employers we have to work longer? There is nothing like

:23:17. > :23:23.the death that comes across a newsroom the minute someone hits 50.

:23:24. > :23:29.That is our business. Across the world, people in implement. Philip

:23:30. > :23:36.worked in the family firm. You can work as long as your children are

:23:37. > :23:41.willing to let you. Most people are in salaried employment. We are all

:23:42. > :23:47.having to work longer. Employers better learn they have to keep us on

:23:48. > :23:52.longer. If they fire enough of us, as we have seen in the US and we

:23:53. > :23:57.will see in the UK life expectancy begins to go back to the old days.

:23:58. > :24:01.People are dying sooner in certain demographics in America because they

:24:02. > :24:05.have been laid off and cannot find other employment. It is not that

:24:06. > :24:11.perfect. Someone should tell the boys in Silicon Valley, the smart

:24:12. > :24:21.28-year-old. Stop inventing robust to put us out of work! David, you

:24:22. > :24:28.were alluding to the fact there was a piece on the BBC today, a

:24:29. > :24:51.93-year-old retiring from a supermarket. Reg Chamakh buttress.

:24:52. > :24:53.-- Reg Buttress. The key to staying in work is self-employment. The

:24:54. > :25:01.ultimate self employment is to be working in the family firm like

:25:02. > :25:10.Prince Philip has been doing. Years ago, the Queen Mother reached 80 and

:25:11. > :25:15.90, I remember my poor mother saying, well, she looks great but I

:25:16. > :25:22.would look that good if I had not washed a cup in my life! I do agree.

:25:23. > :25:28.I don't think the Royal family can set the norm for anything because

:25:29. > :25:35.they are abnormal people. Quite literally an extraordinary group of

:25:36. > :25:38.people living in utter luxury in return for some pleasant social

:25:39. > :25:47.activity. Some quite boring, on some occasions! I don't think you would

:25:48. > :25:54.do the job. This is hardly heavy lifting. Certainly not real work. I

:25:55. > :25:58.think the Queen did a good job in 2011 in Ireland. Much appreciated in

:25:59. > :26:05.Ireland. A lot of people change their view of the British Royal

:26:06. > :26:09.family because of that. I think the Queen has been a munificent public

:26:10. > :26:15.servant with the younger royals can take an example from her. They have

:26:16. > :26:23.quit their military careers already and seem to be far more interested

:26:24. > :26:27.in endless holidays. I think you will find he has stopped his career

:26:28. > :26:33.as a rescue helicopter pilots because he is going to do full-time

:26:34. > :26:37.royal duties. This is hardly heavy lifting, especially in the context

:26:38. > :26:42.of how hard people work nowadays. People go very early in the morning,

:26:43. > :26:50.12 hours a day is the norm. Shorter holidays. Especially in the West,

:26:51. > :26:57.countries including Britain. Certainly in America, one of the

:26:58. > :27:02.hardest working countries I have lived in. Michael, employers, given

:27:03. > :27:08.that we need to keep earning, will have to find jobs for us all?

:27:09. > :27:16.Someone will have to find a job for a lot of people if people are

:27:17. > :27:20.working. Raising the pension age to 68, 70 by the time people who just

:27:21. > :27:27.entered the workforce are finished. Higher still then. People have to

:27:28. > :27:35.realise, they have to change, to be serious, three words - work, jobs,

:27:36. > :27:43.employment. It is employment we do not have. Work, everyone can find...

:27:44. > :27:51.Win the robust takeover, will the older robots be put out of work by

:27:52. > :27:59.the younger robots? Slung out by the new, shiny robots? Until they invent

:28:00. > :28:08.fibroblast to replace us, hopefully we will all be back for the next few

:28:09. > :28:09.weeks at least. Enjoy your summer holidays.

:28:10. > :28:10.That's all we have time for this week.

:28:11. > :28:14.Do join us again next week same time same place.