:00:24. > :00:24.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:25. > :00:28.In South Africa, leadership confirmed.
:00:29. > :00:30.In Kenya, leadership disputed.
:00:31. > :00:36.New And as for North Korea, is it Kim Jong-Un or Donald Trump
:00:37. > :00:39.With me to discuss this week's displays of leadership are:
:00:40. > :00:41.Vincent Magombe, Director of the African journalists' network,
:00:42. > :00:44.Thomas Kielinger from Germany's Die Welt;
:00:45. > :00:51.and the US-born, London-based political commentator Ned Temko.
:00:52. > :00:54."Fire and Fury" - Donald Trump's threat in response to North Korea's
:00:55. > :00:58.self-proclaimed plan to attack Guam, a US Pacific territory.
:00:59. > :01:01.And if that wasn't enough to restrain Kim Jong-Un,
:01:02. > :01:03.how about "Military solutions are now fully in place,
:01:04. > :01:23.net, how much of this is horrible and bluster, and how much of it
:01:24. > :01:28.reflect a real change in the atmosphere of this relationship that
:01:29. > :01:35.has really been frozen in time for 60 years? The danger is we don't
:01:36. > :01:39.know. I will start by making a safe prediction. Save if only because I
:01:40. > :01:43.am wrong, no one will be had to know. And that is I am fairly
:01:44. > :01:51.confident we are not on the brink of nuclear war. But should we be
:01:52. > :01:55.worried? Absolutely yes. On the Korean peninsular, even a
:01:56. > :02:00.conventional war could kill hundreds of thousands of people within a
:02:01. > :02:05.space of hours. In places like Seoul, which is only minutes away
:02:06. > :02:10.from conventionally armed missiles, Tokyo, and the second perhaps
:02:11. > :02:17.equally serious problem is crises like these become was often by
:02:18. > :02:20.miscalculation or accident. Without getting into pop psychology, what is
:02:21. > :02:25.dangerous in this one is you do not have to be a psychologist, you have
:02:26. > :02:31.a President of the US who appears to have no impulse control, who appears
:02:32. > :02:40.to have neither much knowledge of not interested in policy issues,
:02:41. > :02:46.history, and whose main interest seems to be Donald J Trump, and I
:02:47. > :02:53.think what is important to realise about everything he says, the
:02:54. > :02:59.multiple craziness is, is that it again reflects that this is a crisis
:03:00. > :03:03.that is about Donald Trump, and if you had him yesterday, rhapsodising
:03:04. > :03:10.about the tens of millions of people who are behind him and who did not
:03:11. > :03:15.like that week George HW Bush, George W Bush, that terrible Barack
:03:16. > :03:21.Obama, and finally we have someone with muscle in the White House. And
:03:22. > :03:29.that is not the kind of context in which you would like a crisis like
:03:30. > :03:32.this to play out. The North Korean leader provides the sort of enemies
:03:33. > :03:38.that Trump thinks makes him looks great. And versa. Year the other
:03:39. > :03:44.male and he can bang the drum and legally done, but it is an
:03:45. > :03:49.interesting sort of sideshow. We had the good cop and bad cop at the
:03:50. > :03:54.moment in America. He is the bad cop guy, who threatens and uses bluster
:03:55. > :03:57.and so forth, with very reasonable people around him who would not
:03:58. > :04:03.follow the Trump line, so he cannot have it all. While you say it is not
:04:04. > :04:07.Donald Trump, it is also about the standing of American diplomacy in
:04:08. > :04:14.the world. You cannot allow a bull in a china shop to have his own way
:04:15. > :04:20.and threaten a kind of brink from which we are all... I am with you on
:04:21. > :04:26.that, but he does have the nuclear codes after all. It is interesting,
:04:27. > :04:29.since Trump came to the White House, we speak in a forked tongue about
:04:30. > :04:33.Donald Trump. One moment we talk about his pathologies, the next we
:04:34. > :04:37.say, and there is no way he will do it, and every time he does it. We
:04:38. > :04:42.need to decide whether he is fit completely have a logical... He has
:04:43. > :04:46.done a lot of things the past six months that would have been
:04:47. > :04:51.unthinkable. I think we cannot fathom the depths to which the man
:04:52. > :04:56.will plummet, we always say, oh, this date will put a brake on it,
:04:57. > :05:01.bureaucracy, military. But I have seen very little sign... Potluck
:05:02. > :05:05.transgender in a military, which was extraordinary. You had a
:05:06. > :05:08.presidential order that as of today there will be no more transgender
:05:09. > :05:16.people in the military, any military ignored it. These questions pale
:05:17. > :05:19.before nuclear war. We don't know the military ignored it. We are told
:05:20. > :05:32.about diplomatic confusion and resistance. Of a plot about known
:05:33. > :05:35.unknowns to quote Donald Rumsfeld,... Gray PSA giant now.
:05:36. > :05:40.LAUGHTER He was an intellectual on the
:05:41. > :05:45.defence job, but he pointed out the things we'd do not know but think we
:05:46. > :05:49.know. That is ten times more the case now when we talk about North
:05:50. > :05:55.Korea. I heard one commentator referred to North Korea as the
:05:56. > :05:58.strange mix of confusion with death cult. Nobody outside really
:05:59. > :06:03.understand the regime and therefore does not actually know how to
:06:04. > :06:09.calibrate its response. I am never surprised about what goes on North
:06:10. > :06:15.Korea. I was a rush for ten years and communist rule, that is how they
:06:16. > :06:18.behave. That is what they do. The theory attempt of your self defence
:06:19. > :06:23.and try to make sure they protect their people and so on. But what I
:06:24. > :06:27.must say about this is the BBC should excuse me as I am the use and
:06:28. > :06:34.diplomatic language. We have two mad guys are really mad, Trump and that
:06:35. > :06:37.young man, as I say I am not very surprised about North Korea. I don't
:06:38. > :06:45.think the young man would dare trigger a nuclear thing. Trump, I
:06:46. > :06:50.would be very surprised if Americans, sensible as they claim to
:06:51. > :06:55.be, all those guys that we all talk about, sensible people around him,
:06:56. > :07:05.but all the same, this guy is very unpredictable and is totally out of
:07:06. > :07:09.order in terms of... But but the powers that he has. I feel very
:07:10. > :07:15.strongly that he is just laughing. How many times has he said, I'm
:07:16. > :07:18.going to build the wall, by my care, I am dedicated away. Almost
:07:19. > :07:23.everything he has said very loudly, he is not able to do. So I think
:07:24. > :07:29.that this in a certain way, we should see it as they will diverge
:07:30. > :07:36.in from the internal problems facing Donald Trump. You could save it the
:07:37. > :07:42.same thing about Kim Jong-un. Extenuating circumstances about
:07:43. > :07:49.Trump, but perhaps we should also consider that he is confronted with
:07:50. > :07:52.a unknown known North Korean leader, and a old Cold War years at least
:07:53. > :07:56.you have the certainty of knowing how the mindset of the Soviet Union
:07:57. > :08:00.picked, you kind of felt that you are in a safe environment, they
:08:01. > :08:05.subscribe to the same rules of engagement, and so forth. You do not
:08:06. > :08:10.know that about North Korea. So this line is that he employees could be a
:08:11. > :08:16.way to tweak out of the North Korean mind, where do you stand? Gray
:08:17. > :08:18.always try to find right in Trump's case, always.
:08:19. > :08:23.LAUGHTER Method in the madness. And that you
:08:24. > :08:31.should exchange notes after the programme. Back in the cold War
:08:32. > :08:34.years, you were in Moscow. The one area for potential optimism, because
:08:35. > :08:38.I agree with you, I don't think there are many adults in the room,
:08:39. > :08:46.but one of them is the secretary of defence. He himself said, he used
:08:47. > :08:51.the word catastrophic this week for the option of a war. He was standing
:08:52. > :08:58.that message to the White House is much to the rest of the world. Trump
:08:59. > :09:03.cannot have everything. Unless they put his ATM number and substituted.
:09:04. > :09:15.We will move onto another continent that has much to discuss. That is
:09:16. > :09:16.the question of South Africa. Two elections have taken place this
:09:17. > :09:17.week. South Africa's President Jacob Zuma
:09:18. > :09:19.has survived a vote of no confidence and carries on,
:09:20. > :09:37.and Kenya's President An election that are still being
:09:38. > :09:38.contested as we speak by Degas, his long-time rival.
:09:39. > :09:41.Vincent, so Zuma goes on and yet the corruption allegations continue.
:09:42. > :09:52.Is there real reason to believe it could have been stopped? I would try
:09:53. > :10:00.to defuse too much emotion about this question. Kenya is fairly
:10:01. > :10:05.democratic, and basically if you compare it to the neighbouring
:10:06. > :10:12.countries, Uganda, elections were held in February, totalled the game
:10:13. > :10:15.and now we have seen results... We have not seen for example the
:10:16. > :10:20.military on the security forces and Kenya being used to read the
:10:21. > :10:25.President. That seems not to have happened. Usually what they have,
:10:26. > :10:31.and we thought last time when thousands of people died in Kenya,
:10:32. > :10:34.is at the point of declaring this result, so BC sometimes
:10:35. > :10:39.inconsistencies and results that have been declared in constituencies
:10:40. > :10:46.and some that have been announced in Nairobi. Back has been a little bit
:10:47. > :10:52.of that. But not to the extent that could overturn the election. The man
:10:53. > :10:57.who is supposed to have one, who is doing the right thing, he has now
:10:58. > :11:03.issued a very conciliatory statement saying, I am very happy and ready to
:11:04. > :11:08.work together. After the killings, they had to come into some sort of
:11:09. > :11:11.unity Government. Odinga are saying... Have got their point of
:11:12. > :11:17.setting another unity Government, but I believe very strongly and soon
:11:18. > :11:21.we might see Odinga saying... LAUGHTER
:11:22. > :11:27.Pot about him retiring? If he does it, there is a real risk of the type
:11:28. > :11:31.of violence that we saw before, perhaps not thousands of people
:11:32. > :11:36.dying, but... Everyone seems to want to avoid that scenario, however
:11:37. > :11:40.passionate they feel about it, it is still enough within recent memory.
:11:41. > :11:47.There was opportunity to see that kind of virus before people pulled
:11:48. > :11:51.back from the brink. I think it was clear that the rewards would
:11:52. > :11:58.outweigh the consequences. That fact that kind of violence. When
:11:59. > :12:03.insecurity happened the first time, Kenya was a thoroughfare for Eastern
:12:04. > :12:06.Africa in terms of transportation and infrastructure, and when the
:12:07. > :12:10.last spate of instability happened, many African countries diversify
:12:11. > :12:14.their roots and pipelines, so I think in terms of regional
:12:15. > :12:21.instability, Kenya has become less impactful. In turn LA, it is pretty
:12:22. > :12:24.much settled into a 2-party, two candidate system which is good for
:12:25. > :12:30.stability, not necessarily very good for the better day. There is still
:12:31. > :12:35.this feeling in the best that they do not get their fair share of
:12:36. > :12:40.resources or their fair share of power. Exactly. That is why I think
:12:41. > :12:44.whenever there is an election, the impulse is to immediately rejected
:12:45. > :12:48.because there is just so much at stake, that it seems unfathomable
:12:49. > :12:53.that one party has garnered all this support. But I think there will be a
:12:54. > :12:57.stepping back from the break and some conciliatory language being
:12:58. > :13:02.spoken. It is not quite as optimistic a picture in South
:13:03. > :13:05.Africa. Strangely, given that there is no particular pilots on the
:13:06. > :13:13.streets because of the outcome of this Zouma vote. But interesting
:13:14. > :13:17.that Zuma has eight of these confidence motions, he wins everyone
:13:18. > :13:26.but this is the first one... He won by only one vote. Suddenly, has the
:13:27. > :13:31.game changed? I think so. But like we had predicted this for years. I
:13:32. > :13:39.think what we are seeing now is signs within the ANC that out of
:13:40. > :13:47.their own self-interest, they recognise, you have... The greater
:13:48. > :13:56.tragedy than President Zuma himself who after all has raised corruption
:13:57. > :14:00.to an artform, he is about to answer 750 separate... He denies all the
:14:01. > :14:08.charges. I wanted on the record that they are not true as well. All I'm
:14:09. > :14:12.saying is that he has held that position consistently, the party has
:14:13. > :14:19.stood by him. I covered South Africa in the final, when a final stage of
:14:20. > :14:28.apartheid went back when Mandela was released. If you take this to
:14:29. > :14:35.directory come from Mandela's miraculous period in rule, where
:14:36. > :14:39.there were, even Mandela recognises these huge economic racial and
:14:40. > :14:46.social issues, and he navigated that. You could argue that even
:14:47. > :14:56.under the Becky, although not his chosen successor, he would have
:14:57. > :15:02.preferred... Summit has got to see these to the historical prism. What
:15:03. > :15:08.has set him isn't really that historical track of ANC. That is the
:15:09. > :15:14.only way he was able to stay. The nearest equivalent in ahead of
:15:15. > :15:22.intelligence. One person, the young man who is heading what they call
:15:23. > :15:27.the economic freedom fighters. He came up just before the thing, and
:15:28. > :15:30.somehow said, well, look, there is something going on here. I would
:15:31. > :15:36.like to throw President Zuma away. But there seems to be about the ANC.
:15:37. > :15:41.Some people want to derail the historical role of liberation and
:15:42. > :15:49.all that kind of stuff. That is what he was playing and it has helped
:15:50. > :15:57.him. How much longer can continue? That is of a century. It was
:15:58. > :16:02.triggered when the finance minister was sacked. Who is he? This is
:16:03. > :16:08.someone who supports and was the front line for Western economic
:16:09. > :16:15.system. Someone who is really working for the big companies and
:16:16. > :16:21.Taiwan. He is still being blamed and the ANC is being blamed for not
:16:22. > :16:26.transforming the economy. That is why, even if so many people are
:16:27. > :16:30.supporting President Zuma, they see it well, you are trying to kick him
:16:31. > :16:36.out because he kicked out someone very popular as of the west, and the
:16:37. > :16:41.World Bank and so on. But that hasn't helped us. I'm struck by
:16:42. > :16:44.this, because I cannot compete with Ned's distinct record of reporting
:16:45. > :16:51.out there, I was there for one particular event which was at Pollok
:16:52. > :16:54.one A, a decade ago, when he was effectively dumped at a party
:16:55. > :17:01.candidate. I have a vivid memory of being at a reception, a diplomatic
:17:02. > :17:03.reception where there was a rather diminished figure, physically rather
:17:04. > :17:08.frail, an intellectual figure in the party. There was Zuma, a powerful
:17:09. > :17:13.presence with great charisma, meeting the diplomatic greeting.
:17:14. > :17:17.Palmer was shifting. He had not yet become President, but Mbeki had been
:17:18. > :17:21.dropped as a candidate. If you were the ANC man, you were effectively
:17:22. > :17:26.going to be the head of state. There was no issue. Is that going to be
:17:27. > :17:32.the case next I'm? Is it automatic or I'll be at a transition phase
:17:33. > :17:36.where ANC and state are no longer inseparable? I think the ANC is done
:17:37. > :17:43.very powerful in terms of grassroots support. The opposition is now being
:17:44. > :17:48.headed by black persons, but many people see that opposition as
:17:49. > :17:56.rappers and the white minority because of its history. The ANC has
:17:57. > :17:59.a big chunk of support, but the only thing we're going to start seeing is
:18:00. > :18:04.the power struggle within the ANC itself between those who want to
:18:05. > :18:11.radicalise things, starting to do with the land issue and economy
:18:12. > :18:15.issues, and those who are not. We expect that when Zuma goes, the next
:18:16. > :18:22.person will take all this over. But that might not happen if what I am
:18:23. > :18:27.telling you, this equation goes on, because he is now... Goes back in
:18:28. > :18:32.recent history has evolved. He has crossed over and is very supportive
:18:33. > :18:41.of Western business, a rich man and so on. He is not somebody who still
:18:42. > :18:45.caters for the small people. We have an urban elite coming into its own.
:18:46. > :18:50.They are probably getting tired of these post-colonial debates and the
:18:51. > :18:56.power structures and want to find some way of getting away from it and
:18:57. > :19:00.reconciling these divisions, and force them into a future state of
:19:01. > :19:10.affairs. That does not hanker back to the post-colonial, post-apartheid
:19:11. > :19:17.struggle, and find a new... The issue of the colonial post-colonial,
:19:18. > :19:22.post-apartheid issues are still very, very powerful for South
:19:23. > :19:27.Africa. For Kainga it might be something different. People are
:19:28. > :19:31.studied move forward, but... It feels like a historical issue. For
:19:32. > :19:35.South Africa, the story of liberation has not been told as yet.
:19:36. > :19:43.The people in the ghettos, the people who do not have much, they
:19:44. > :19:48.are still very strong and it will divide their struggles. I agree. It
:19:49. > :19:55.is interesting, there is a perception outside South Africa that
:19:56. > :19:59.apartheid was a long time ago. And that it was reconciliation and we
:20:00. > :20:04.have had the black leaders, but it is not really at all. It has not
:20:05. > :20:09.really been written letter Lompoc. There is still many axes to grind.
:20:10. > :20:12.When people say, it was so interesting to hear Western
:20:13. > :20:15.commentators say, there is a generation that has post-apartheid
:20:16. > :20:20.that has now come of age. For them these things are, the struggles of
:20:21. > :20:26.their elders. That is not the case, it is completely irrelevant that
:20:27. > :20:30.lack relevant. If you see South Africa, if there is no racial
:20:31. > :20:35.apartheid, there is an economic apartheid appals along racial lines.
:20:36. > :20:40.They wear indicators of real trouble recently when the local South
:20:41. > :20:47.Africans and on immigrants from Nigeria. They really went out there.
:20:48. > :20:54.What it means is that ANC of whatever Government is going forward
:20:55. > :21:01.do not address the issue of lack of access to what everyone else is
:21:02. > :21:06.enjoying, south after sitting on an explosion, goes back I want to move
:21:07. > :21:12.on. That makes the situation even more tragic than Kenya. The ANC
:21:13. > :21:16.isn't internal Carl Meyer, an internal ANC members what I held
:21:17. > :21:18.onto their positions I cannot completely cut Zuma. Activated their
:21:19. > :21:24.confidence, they would have to go back and jockey for their own
:21:25. > :21:27.positions. He also have a nation that is handcuffed to the ANC in
:21:28. > :21:31.terms of racial politics, but economically we have not measured
:21:32. > :21:35.economics, economically South Africa is in dire straits. I want to
:21:36. > :21:38.mention economics is likely to be context, but one were to take pics
:21:39. > :21:39.of the general theme you're talking about.
:21:40. > :21:41.Europeans are enjoying their summer holidays, but on Wednesday,
:21:42. > :21:44.one Spanish beach played host to a different sort of visitor.
:21:45. > :21:47.In one of the most striking photographs of the week,
:21:48. > :21:49.a rubber dinghy emerges from the surf on the
:21:50. > :21:53.People have jumped into the water and are running the last few
:21:54. > :22:02.A group of sunbathers has gathered to find out what's going on.
:22:03. > :22:09.This is a representation in one picture of a whole process that has
:22:10. > :22:14.happened before and is happening in other parts throughout the Middle
:22:15. > :22:18.East. We talked about Libya as a way that people get into Europe, who
:22:19. > :22:22.have a search for economic opportunities, many of them coming
:22:23. > :22:25.from sub-Saharan Africa and going to North Africa, now evident we were
:22:26. > :22:32.talking about ten years ago a cross from Morocco into Spain is active
:22:33. > :22:36.again. Much does this tell us about the continued economic and answered
:22:37. > :22:40.economically demand from Africa? Gray I think it says the things,
:22:41. > :22:45.that there is consistent economic pressure on North Africa. If people
:22:46. > :22:47.have a root, they will take it. Thirdly, there is just more
:22:48. > :22:53.accessibility of information about these types of routes. Even five
:22:54. > :22:59.years ago, the ability to find out things like social media, cheap
:23:00. > :23:03.phone called, voice over IP, the routes today, was severely
:23:04. > :23:06.diminished. And now the flow of information SMRs clearer, people
:23:07. > :23:10.scratch their heads and say, how do these people know, how do they know
:23:11. > :23:19.where to go when is notified routes or streets or signs saying...? It is
:23:20. > :23:27.because information is now free. On the routes don't matter. The point
:23:28. > :23:31.is the issue... People coming from Africa, it will continue until we
:23:32. > :23:35.start having some economic involvement. The political stability
:23:36. > :23:41.and so on. We stop these was any Middle East will stop the whole
:23:42. > :23:47.thing, of course Europeans do not want us to come, but you are part of
:23:48. > :23:52.those problems. Unless you stop coursing was and installing
:23:53. > :23:57.dictators, and we will still come. You close this route, we will find
:23:58. > :24:02.another route. Just that you came to ours, we will find another route to
:24:03. > :24:07.come here. It is about global inequalities, but it is also about
:24:08. > :24:15.politics of the world. How people are trading was... It is about
:24:16. > :24:17.history as well. And a fact that there are structural inequalities,
:24:18. > :24:21.not entirely attributable to one party or the other, but when you
:24:22. > :24:25.have structural inequality and where people want to make a life, they
:24:26. > :24:29.will find a way. And we build so much inflammatory language about
:24:30. > :24:37.this and we apologise a very simple impulse, which is just to escape
:24:38. > :24:40.from economic or war in security. As all those Europeans did when it
:24:41. > :24:46.comes to your country of 500 years ago. And help to shape your
:24:47. > :24:48.country... To combine to our favourite tropic, Donald Trump.
:24:49. > :24:52.LAUGHTER Gray your favourite topic.
:24:53. > :24:57.LAUGHTER Goes like I think you have a bit of
:24:58. > :24:59.an obsession. LAUGHTER
:25:00. > :25:03.The central political and economic truth of our age without being over
:25:04. > :25:07.the top, is that these things are not going to stop and that you can
:25:08. > :25:13.build walls and promise that the coal industry will start all over
:25:14. > :25:19.again, you can tell people that it is Muslims or Mexicans rather than
:25:20. > :25:24.microchips that is taking your jobs. Stop coming to the Star bars and
:25:25. > :25:30.stealing our things and do whatever, Europeans came to our places, we
:25:31. > :25:38.will come to you. Everywhere. When we come here, you start saying, oh,
:25:39. > :25:48.stop it! That will solve your problem. That does a reasonable
:25:49. > :25:53.point to make. Two years ago we had this young child dying on the shore,
:25:54. > :25:57.and it created a swell of sympathy for refugees. Now this belt creates
:25:58. > :26:02.another impression altogether. The air. We have to stop this, we cannot
:26:03. > :26:05.cope with it. We are in the middle of this and... Thank you all as ever
:26:06. > :26:08.for a challenging discussion. That's all we have time
:26:09. > :26:10.for this week, but do join Dateline London next week,
:26:11. > :26:46.same time, same place. The weekend has had something of a
:26:47. > :26:49.mixed art, depending on where you are across the British trials. For
:26:50. > :26:54.some, decent spells of sunshine, although do not hold me to Matt,
:26:55. > :26:55.staying in their right to the course