:00:25. > :00:26.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:27. > :00:33.This week we discuss Spain's constitutional crisis
:00:34. > :00:42.Has there been perhaps some movement this week?
:00:43. > :00:44.And, with one of the leading Middle East
:00:45. > :00:47.analysts around our table, could we be witnessing the beginning
:00:48. > :00:50.My guests are The Times columnist David Aaronovitch.
:00:51. > :00:53.The North American writer and broadcaster,
:00:54. > :00:55.Jeffrey Kofman Mina Al-Oraibi, the new editor-in-chief
:00:56. > :01:04.And from Spain's La Razon, Celia Maza De Pablo.
:01:05. > :01:08.A warm welcome to all of you. Let's start in Spain.
:01:09. > :01:11.Spain is in the midst of a huge constitutional crisis.
:01:12. > :01:13.As we go to air, an emergency cabinet meeting is discussing
:01:14. > :01:15.suspending Catalonia's autonomy, in the wake of the independence
:01:16. > :01:18.referendum - which was declared unconstituional by the courts -
:01:19. > :01:26.It will be the first time in Spain's four decades of democracy that
:01:27. > :01:28.Madrid has aimed to effectively sack a regional government
:01:29. > :01:39.Are people going to take to the streets again?
:01:40. > :01:50.Celia, do you approach this with nervousness? Without any doubt we
:01:51. > :01:59.are living through the most important constitutional crisis in
:02:00. > :02:03.the history of Spain. The central government is going to trigger
:02:04. > :02:07.Article one of and 55 of the Constitution. This is going to be
:02:08. > :02:13.the first time that we are going to see this scenario in recent history.
:02:14. > :02:16.It is a new scenario for everyone. That's why it is so important, the
:02:17. > :02:28.special meeting of the Cabinet today. Article 155, that by the way
:02:29. > :02:33.was inspired by the German model, there are similar articles around a
:02:34. > :02:41.lot of countries in the European Union, the article says that if the
:02:42. > :02:48.legal and constitutional framework is broken, the government can use
:02:49. > :02:54.any package of measures within the law to return this legal framework.
:02:55. > :02:58.But the problem is there is no specific case and about the
:02:59. > :03:06.measures. That is why it is so important, the meeting. The Spanish
:03:07. > :03:11.president is going to discuss the measure which had been agreed with
:03:12. > :03:17.the main parties of the opposition. That is important. Mariano Rajoy
:03:18. > :03:22.knows he needs cross-party support? He has the support of the main
:03:23. > :03:28.parties of the opposition. That is an important point. And later this
:03:29. > :03:36.package of measures... It is different from the point of view in
:03:37. > :03:42.Spain because it is an elected chamber. The package of measures
:03:43. > :03:47.will be passed and will be approved. The Spanish president has the
:03:48. > :03:53.majority. We don't know the details. But I presume that the central
:03:54. > :03:59.government is going to take control of the Catalan police, for example,
:04:00. > :04:05.finance, for example. We don't know the details but I assume this is
:04:06. > :04:11.going to be a very smooth process with the goal to have Catalan
:04:12. > :04:16.election is probably in January. We have to see what is going to be the
:04:17. > :04:20.answer from the Catalan president. That is the thing. You say you hope
:04:21. > :04:24.it is going to be a smooth process. Everybody remembers the horrific
:04:25. > :04:28.scenes that we saw just a couple of weeks ago surrounding the
:04:29. > :04:33.referendum. One never wants to pre-empt violence, but what is your
:04:34. > :04:40.personal concern about that? Obviously the article 155 will
:04:41. > :04:49.escalate the tension. The Catalan president says he is going to
:04:50. > :04:53.declare independence. He is in a very difficult position. He has a
:04:54. > :04:57.lot of pressure from his own party. He knows they do not have
:04:58. > :05:02.international support. But having said that, there is a lot of
:05:03. > :05:13.pressure to have again this protest in the streets. We are going to have
:05:14. > :05:19.a very interesting few days ahead. My hope is that we don't want to see
:05:20. > :05:24.the same violence in the streets. Those pictures were horrendous for
:05:25. > :05:32.the Spanish brand. But see what happens in the days ahead. I think
:05:33. > :05:36.it's inevitable, sadly, that this elevation of tension is going to be
:05:37. > :05:41.the consequence. For those who believe in Catalonian separatism
:05:42. > :05:44.this position of almost martial law will be their perception of what is
:05:45. > :05:50.happening, and that is simply going to elevate tension. It is going to
:05:51. > :05:53.polarise people. It is going to motivate them against the central
:05:54. > :05:59.government. It feels like we are heading for a very incendiary time.
:06:00. > :06:05.Obviously the violence is horrible and everybody condemns the violence.
:06:06. > :06:09.But it is important not to focus on this thing. It is horrendous what
:06:10. > :06:17.happened three weeks ago. But the important thing is that the Spanish
:06:18. > :06:20.constitutional framework is broken and the Spanish government has to do
:06:21. > :06:26.something to restore the unity of Spain. Obviously a lot of people in
:06:27. > :06:30.the United Kingdom has a lot of sympathy right now for the Catalan
:06:31. > :06:34.people who want independence. But I think it is important to follow the
:06:35. > :06:41.rules. It is important to say that this referendum was illegal by the
:06:42. > :06:46.Constitutional Court. It's important to focus on the legal and
:06:47. > :06:55.constitutional framework of this important crisis in Spain. It is
:06:56. > :06:58.important to remember that 90% of those who voted for independence
:06:59. > :07:05.wanted it but they only represented 43% of those who can vote. A 43%
:07:06. > :07:10.turnout. Exactly. This is one of the problems when you have a turnout
:07:11. > :07:14.that is less than the majority. If we were to accept that, then even
:07:15. > :07:17.the result itself should not say that all of Catalonia wants
:07:18. > :07:20.independence and therefore everybody is behind it. One of the fears is
:07:21. > :07:26.that if we say that regional elections are the solution in
:07:27. > :07:31.January, then are there enough people on the ground in leadership
:07:32. > :07:34.to say, let's push for a reversal of this? And can you reverse it after
:07:35. > :07:40.they actually signed a declaration of independence? This is one of the
:07:41. > :07:43.problems. The first few days of escalation after the referendum
:07:44. > :07:46.output both sides in an almost impossible situation to try to come
:07:47. > :07:51.back. That is when you need visionary leadership. We will be
:07:52. > :07:58.talking about this in the coming days and weeks. Thank you, Celia. We
:07:59. > :07:58.will see what emerges. Let's talk about the continue at Brexit
:07:59. > :08:05.negotiations. And while EU leaders said at the end
:08:06. > :08:12.of their summit that there hasn't been enough progress to begin trade
:08:13. > :08:14.talks, European Council President Donald Tusk said reports
:08:15. > :08:16.of a deadlock were exaggerated. It appears we may now be looking
:08:17. > :08:19.at discussions about trade David, there seems to have
:08:20. > :08:32.been a shift this week? From fascinating Catalonia to boring
:08:33. > :08:37.Brexit. You would say that but we can't say that. No, you can't. What
:08:38. > :08:43.I thought was interesting this week was the way in which the most
:08:44. > :08:48.powerful leaders in Europe clustered around Theresa May to give her some
:08:49. > :08:55.support and say, we understand, we kind of get it, we see just how bad
:08:56. > :08:58.this is for you. But this week we have also had this photograph of her
:08:59. > :09:03.sitting alone at that table covered with lilies. Somebody tweeted that
:09:04. > :09:10.this looks like the biggest coffin in the world that she is sitting
:09:11. > :09:13.next to. That is a bit how this can sometimes feel. We may know what
:09:14. > :09:18.we're leaving but we don't know what we are going to. And we don't know a
:09:19. > :09:22.timetable. We are talking about whether or not we can get to the
:09:23. > :09:25.business whereby we can begin to discuss properly the transitional
:09:26. > :09:33.deal, which we might have in order to get us back to a deal with no --
:09:34. > :09:38.we have no idea what it will be. Brexit means Brexit. That is it.
:09:39. > :09:44.Theresa May has assured us that she knows the direction. Genuinely, was
:09:45. > :09:48.there not something of a shift this week? Are you saying it was purely
:09:49. > :09:53.because they felt sorry for her because things are tricky
:09:54. > :09:55.domestically? There are conciliatory noises from a lot of European
:09:56. > :10:02.leaders that we have not heard before. Emmanuel Macron said that
:10:03. > :10:07.the problem was that nobody has explained to the British people what
:10:08. > :10:13.Brexit actually means. That is how incredibly sympathetic they all are.
:10:14. > :10:19.The problem is that the fundamentals do not change on this. They are not
:10:20. > :10:22.going to change. When we are trying to look at the end deal, we could
:10:23. > :10:26.have maybe a transitional deal which we could agree after agreeing the
:10:27. > :10:30.money and so on, but we have no idea what we are going to do about
:10:31. > :10:37.Ireland, which is the third aspect of this. But absolutely the European
:10:38. > :10:41.Union and reiterated time and time again the four freedoms are
:10:42. > :10:47.indivisible. You can't have the same access to the single market that you
:10:48. > :10:51.used to have membership effectively of, unless you have significantly
:10:52. > :10:54.signed up to freedom of movement. If that is the sticking point, that
:10:55. > :11:04.will put us outside the mechanisms of the single market, and that is so
:11:05. > :11:08.economically damaging for us. There are Brexiteers carefully counting
:11:09. > :11:12.our words to find out who is pro-Brexit and who is not, because
:11:13. > :11:19.they are preparing further we were betrayed scenario, with the wicked
:11:20. > :11:26.BBC playing their part. Count me in. I'm doing the bad thing. I'm selling
:11:27. > :11:29.the country. Is it such a desperate state of affairs that the fact we
:11:30. > :11:34.think they could be getting close to negotiations is seen as a shift,
:11:35. > :11:40.positive momentum? That is part of this position. It is not about being
:11:41. > :11:47.pro macro -- pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit. It is such a difficult
:11:48. > :11:52.situation UK has put itself in. Brexit is Brexit. This is happening.
:11:53. > :11:56.Let's find out how to negotiate a way. That is the only single shift.
:11:57. > :12:01.The sinking in that this is going to happen. Even though there are still
:12:02. > :12:05.voices that say we could not have the Brexit. They are the minority.
:12:06. > :12:08.This notion that things are certainly better and the sun is
:12:09. > :12:14.coming out on these negotiations, there is a sense she is such a lame
:12:15. > :12:19.duck Prime Minister, that if we kick her now, and she falls, could they
:12:20. > :12:22.enter up with Boris Johnson or someone worse? In Brussels and
:12:23. > :12:27.elsewhere they are saying, we better be careful here. In a position of
:12:28. > :12:31.power but we can't keep feeding on her because it could get worse. Do
:12:32. > :12:35.you think they care that much about British domestic politics? I think
:12:36. > :12:39.there have to understand consequence. It is pretty clear that
:12:40. > :12:45.far from being the iron Lady, she's the hollow lady, and she is in
:12:46. > :12:49.charge. Another election or another leadership race in the Tory party
:12:50. > :12:54.could lead to unknown consequences. And those consequences inevitably
:12:55. > :12:57.have ripples in Europe. They have all the aces in their hands. They
:12:58. > :13:06.don't need to play them all right now. I'm giving her some leveraged.
:13:07. > :13:13.The head of Goldman Sachs really through some oil on the fire this
:13:14. > :13:15.week with a little playful tweet from Frankfurt saying, quite nicely
:13:16. > :13:23.and I think I'll be spending a lot more time here. Not the first time
:13:24. > :13:27.banks have done that kind of thing? No. We now know that 13,000
:13:28. > :13:35.high-paying jobs from the financial district of London are leaving
:13:36. > :13:39.London. Goldman Sachs has 6000 employees in London. They are
:13:40. > :13:45.talking about moving a thousand. This is a real consequence. Those
:13:46. > :13:53.jobs and other jobs will fail, too. These are real consequences. I grew
:13:54. > :13:56.up in Canada in the 1970s during the Quebec independence movement. That
:13:57. > :14:00.is when the bank of Montreal moved to Toronto. Its head office. You are
:14:01. > :14:06.going to see consequences to uncertainty. Quebec Nehra left but
:14:07. > :14:14.Montreal is still paying. I see parallels. I would like to say
:14:15. > :14:17.something about what you said first. The European Union is worried about
:14:18. > :14:22.the domestic issues in the United Kingdom. But right now the European
:14:23. > :14:30.Union, I think that they are going to focus on the interest from the
:14:31. > :14:35.European Union, because from their perspective it's like, OK, the
:14:36. > :14:44.United Kingdom once Brexit, so we try to have the best deal. -- wants.
:14:45. > :14:48.It is very important in this line to remember Emmanuel Macron's sentenced
:14:49. > :14:53.this week about how we are halfway close to this financial settlement
:14:54. > :15:01.that he says is the key part to go for the second phase and discuss.
:15:02. > :15:06.Obviously they are on the way to have disagreement. But they are not
:15:07. > :15:15.going to accept anything in order to avoid internal crisis or domestic
:15:16. > :15:19.situation in the United Kingdom. Briefly on that point, is it still
:15:20. > :15:27.an ardent fundamentally about the divorce Bill? I know we have talked
:15:28. > :15:29.about this a long time, but... We will probably settle the amount of
:15:30. > :15:34.money in the next few months. They are not telling us what the amount
:15:35. > :15:46.actually is so that the Brexiteers in the Tory party don't get to whine
:15:47. > :15:52.about it. But that's all. This isn't 1% of what Brexit actually means.
:15:53. > :15:58.Resolving that may unlock quite a lot. Doesn't resolve anything. It
:15:59. > :16:03.just means you will move onto the next phase. It's like one of those
:16:04. > :16:10.ridiculous computer games. You do move onto the next phase. We have to
:16:11. > :16:13.leave that topic. We will be talking about it again. We will see how much
:16:14. > :16:16.has moved on next time. So the Syrian city of Raqqa has
:16:17. > :16:19.finally been wrested from the grasp of so-called Islamic State,
:16:20. > :16:21.by the US-backed alliance of Kurdish-Arab Syrian
:16:22. > :16:25.Democratic Forces. More than 3,000 bombs have fallen
:16:26. > :16:29.on the city this year, devastating The United Nations has warned that
:16:30. > :16:33.around 300,000 people who've fled have "enormous
:16:34. > :16:40.needs" in nearby camps. Mina, from your vantage point
:16:41. > :16:57.in the Gulf, is this the beginning Well, the beginning of the end of
:16:58. > :17:03.Isis perhaps. And that follows after the Battle of Mosul. This week was
:17:04. > :17:06.the one year anniversary since the Battle of Mosul was launched to
:17:07. > :17:10.liberate the biggest holding of Isis in Iraq. Now you have the same in
:17:11. > :17:15.Syria. In that sense it is an important moment. But if we are
:17:16. > :17:20.talking about the war in Syria, the war in Syria was never about Isis.
:17:21. > :17:25.Isis became a by-product. If you go back to the root causes of what
:17:26. > :17:29.happens -- happened in Syria, it continues and is is even worse. We
:17:30. > :17:34.have Turkish troops in Idlib. Iraq has militia all over Syria and have
:17:35. > :17:39.now got a stronghold in Damascus and the surrounding area. The parties
:17:40. > :17:43.that are there and armed continue and are strengthened. And we are
:17:44. > :17:50.nowhere near a political resolution to try to at least preserve lives in
:17:51. > :17:57.Syria. I think Raqqa is a moment to take stock. But it is not this
:17:58. > :18:00.victory were we can see Syria coming together again. What is devastating
:18:01. > :18:07.as you do have 300,000 civilians living on sheer terror in Raqqa.
:18:08. > :18:11.There isn't much sympathy for ordinary people who need shelter,
:18:12. > :18:14.need to be taken care of. They are barely now getting some of the
:18:15. > :18:18.international humanitarian organisations and the UN delivering
:18:19. > :18:23.the most basic foodstuffs. That is nowhere near a resolution. And
:18:24. > :18:28.because you still have got at its heart all the different interests at
:18:29. > :18:33.play in Syria not seeing eye to eye, you don't see this as a moment of
:18:34. > :18:40.Silverline in and we can move forward. You are absolutely right.
:18:41. > :18:45.If you saw be devastating droll images of Ragot, there is no city.
:18:46. > :18:50.It is a place on a map. It is an important milestone but we shouldn't
:18:51. > :18:54.overstated. Where is the plan to rebuild? Where is the consensus and
:18:55. > :18:57.how these people are going to rebuild their lives? And if they
:18:58. > :19:03.don't, the problem that led to the rise of Isis is still there. That is
:19:04. > :19:08.a very good point. You may know better, after Mosul fell, the
:19:09. > :19:12.cameras moved on and we have not been back. We should now pay a bit
:19:13. > :19:21.of attention to what is happening in Mosul. There is a supposedly unitary
:19:22. > :19:26.government for Iraq. The target -- Kurdish problem notwithstanding. You
:19:27. > :19:32.have got literally trenches being dog because you are thinking the
:19:33. > :19:34.Kurds and Arabs may face off. For example, Mosul has lost Internet
:19:35. > :19:41.connection because they were connected to Kirkuk. Hardly any
:19:42. > :19:46.water is reaching people. The scale of the problem is so huge, you have
:19:47. > :19:50.got just under a million people not knowing what happens next. You are
:19:51. > :19:55.right in that we really have to look back and say, how are people's lies
:19:56. > :19:58.being rebuilt? This unitary government is facing such pressure
:19:59. > :20:05.with this ill-advised referendum that is happening. That is not
:20:06. > :20:12.discussing whether the Kurds should have a state of their own, but they
:20:13. > :20:19.are pushing forward. In Raqqa, you have the SDF, the majority of the
:20:20. > :20:25.leadership are Kurds. Raqqa is a predominantly Arab city. The fight
:20:26. > :20:31.that was there is nothing to do with the PKK. It antagonises the Turks.
:20:32. > :20:34.You have all these different identities and believes crashing
:20:35. > :20:38.together and nobody is seeing how we're going to build a future
:20:39. > :20:45.together. In Raqqa, to put that inflammatory image up to say that
:20:46. > :20:51.the Kurds are getting ready for their federal state in Syria and
:20:52. > :20:56.Iraq, only means that the weapons we used against Isis can be turned on
:20:57. > :21:02.other people. It is important to note that Isis still has a
:21:03. > :21:05.significant presence in Afghanistan and Syria. The idea that Isis is
:21:06. > :21:13.dead, it would be premature to announce that. One of the biggest
:21:14. > :21:23.worries right now is what happens after the defeat in Raqqa. There are
:21:24. > :21:29.a lot of questions about what is going to happen if foreign fighters
:21:30. > :21:35.in Isis are returned to their original countries. I don't know if
:21:36. > :21:42.Ragot will have I direct consequence in terms of this thread in Europe.
:21:43. > :21:48.-- Raqqa. In terms of people fighting for IS coming back to the
:21:49. > :21:55.UK, America etc? They should never have been allowed to fight in a
:21:56. > :21:59.place with such a security vacuum. The onus really is on Turkey in
:22:00. > :22:03.large part. How are they going to cross over? There is a sense of
:22:04. > :22:06.concern about the return of foreign fighters. This is why you need more
:22:07. > :22:10.intelligence co-operation rather than a breakdown of relationships,
:22:11. > :22:15.in order to track those people and hold them. We also saw deals being
:22:16. > :22:19.done where you had Isis fighters in bosses being transported to other
:22:20. > :22:24.parts of the country where deals would have been done by outside
:22:25. > :22:31.countries try to protect those they see can serve another purpose.
:22:32. > :22:36.Unless countries are held to account to any passing of foreign fighters,
:22:37. > :22:41.we are in a lot of trouble. Who is this? Where does this start? Whose
:22:42. > :22:46.responsibility is this? The Americans are on the ground. They
:22:47. > :22:48.have soldiers inside. You have got Kurdish fighters getting direct
:22:49. > :22:54.support from the West. You have got the Iraqi government that is an
:22:55. > :22:58.internationally recognised. Everybody is concerned about the
:22:59. > :23:02.Iranian nuclear deal. Nobody is asking what they are doing about the
:23:03. > :23:08.militia and what is happening in Kirkuk, militia been backed by Iran.
:23:09. > :23:11.You have got turkey that has been instrumental in terms of the border
:23:12. > :23:18.going back and forth. It is more controlled today. But they could do
:23:19. > :23:23.much more. You've got Interpol. We do have international mechanisms. It
:23:24. > :23:26.drives me crazy that Isis is seen as a bogeyman that can out with all of
:23:27. > :23:29.those I have just talked about. There is no way. There has to be
:23:30. > :23:34.some kind of complacency if not worse. There was a significant
:23:35. > :23:38.warning put out by our security services in the past couple of weeks
:23:39. > :23:41.that the threat level in the United Kingdom, which must have something
:23:42. > :23:48.to do with their perception of returning people from the Middle
:23:49. > :23:51.East. Listening to people close to discussing it, I think there is
:23:52. > :23:55.quite a sophisticated understanding that there are different motivations
:23:56. > :23:59.in different people coming from there. I think you are right,
:24:00. > :24:06.actually. Although we feel, for obvious reasons, in the
:24:07. > :24:09.international dimension of things, the issue of returned fighters is a
:24:10. > :24:14.relatively small one given the other risks in the region right now, which
:24:15. > :24:17.are so complicated for us and which we in the West play a significant
:24:18. > :24:23.role in. It is quite hard to compute. I think I'm going to be
:24:24. > :24:30.reading your newspaper from now on! I hope you do. We promise to distil
:24:31. > :24:34.all of this and try to tackle it. Not wanting to pre-empt violence,
:24:35. > :24:42.but how does Islamic State respond noted losing Raqqa? After Mosul they
:24:43. > :24:47.tried to have several attacks in the West in order to maintain their rain
:24:48. > :24:51.of terror. There's strength comes from being able to terrorise. They
:24:52. > :24:54.are going to attempt large-scale attacks or even small-scale attacks
:24:55. > :25:00.to show they still exist. The leadership of Isis it continues to
:25:01. > :25:08.be unknown where they are. They will try to put out voice messages to say
:25:09. > :25:11.they still exist. Isis has become a franchise. In Libya we don't know if
:25:12. > :25:20.there is a direct command of control between Isis out of Libya and Raqqa.
:25:21. > :25:25.We go back to the point of social media. They use of Internet. As long
:25:26. > :25:28.as more effort I put in to clamp down their ability to send out that
:25:29. > :25:33.message, hopefully their influence can be pulled down. They thought
:25:34. > :25:37.they could declare a caliphate. That was always a lie. It no longer
:25:38. > :25:40.exists in terms of territory. That is why security vacuum is from
:25:41. > :25:49.failed states cannot allow that might be allowed to continue. As
:25:50. > :25:54.long as we don't deal with the root causes, we will have these ongoing
:25:55. > :25:56.battles. Thank you very much for -- to all of you. Fascinating
:25:57. > :25:58.discussions. See you again. That's all we have
:25:59. > :26:00.time for this week. Do join us again next week same
:26:01. > :26:33.time, same place, but for now thank Hello. Storm Brian is sweeping
:26:34. > :26:37.across the British Isles today. Very windy for some. Occasionally wet. Is
:26:38. > :26:38.will complete its journey across the