0:00:25 > 0:00:30Hello, I'm Shaun Ley and this is Dateline London.
0:00:30 > 0:00:32They do say politics is showbiz for ugly people...
0:00:32 > 0:00:34This week, British politics was found to have something
0:00:34 > 0:00:36in common with Hollywood, sexual sleaze.
0:00:36 > 0:00:38In Washington it was financial sleaze under the spotlight.
0:00:38 > 0:00:45The special prosecutor investigating whether Donald Trump's presidential
0:00:45 > 0:00:47campaign was influenced by the Russians laid his first
0:00:47 > 0:00:50charges, but is he any closer to proving a link?
0:00:50 > 0:00:52With me to discuss all that are:
0:00:52 > 0:00:54Marc Roche, of Le Soir, a Belgian daily newspaper,
0:00:54 > 0:00:57and the French magazine Le Point;
0:00:57 > 0:01:02Bronwen Maddox, Director of The Institute for Government;
0:01:02 > 0:01:03the Portuguese writer Eunice Goes;
0:01:03 > 0:01:07and Henry Chu, International Editor of Variety.
0:01:07 > 0:01:10Good to have you with us today.
0:01:13 > 0:01:14Michael Fallon was Britain's defence secretary
0:01:14 > 0:01:15in more ways than one.
0:01:15 > 0:01:19The minister in charge of the armed forces was also the first man over
0:01:19 > 0:01:21the top when political flak started to fly,
0:01:21 > 0:01:22the "safe pair of hands"
0:01:22 > 0:01:23when the Government needed a reassuring presence
0:01:23 > 0:01:24at the microphone.
0:01:24 > 0:01:29Those hands and that voice cost him his job this week.
0:01:29 > 0:01:32He resigned abruptly because, he said,
0:01:32 > 0:01:34his behaviour towards women had fallen short
0:01:34 > 0:01:35of what modern life dictates.
0:01:35 > 0:01:38He's the most prominent political casualty of the campaign against men
0:01:38 > 0:01:41using power to extract sexual favours which began with claims
0:01:41 > 0:01:42against Harvey Weinstein,
0:01:42 > 0:01:44one of the most powerful figures in Hollywood.
0:01:44 > 0:01:45He is under criminal investigation.
0:01:45 > 0:01:50Michael Fallon faces no such allegations.
0:01:50 > 0:01:53The only thing he said he had done wrong was repeatedly put his hand on
0:01:53 > 0:02:01a woman journalist's knee until she told him she would slap him if he
0:02:01 > 0:02:06did not stop, and that was 15 years ago. She says it was not a problem
0:02:06 > 0:02:12to her, she says it is no reason for him to resign. Is this a nervous
0:02:12 > 0:02:15breakdown at Westminster?There is more in the newspapers about what he
0:02:15 > 0:02:17may have done, in different circumstances, Westminster isn't the
0:02:17 > 0:02:21one of the places where the Harvey Weinstein allegations have triggered
0:02:21 > 0:02:29a whole... They have empowered people, mainly women, not entirely,
0:02:29 > 0:02:32to say, inappropriate behaviour that happened in the past, I was a victim
0:02:32 > 0:02:37of this, it is unleashed all this. To me, some things make it
0:02:37 > 0:02:40particularly feverish in Westminster. One, the very nervous
0:02:40 > 0:02:45state of politics at the moment. A very weak government, finding it
0:02:45 > 0:02:48hard to maintain discipline. This is not just about Conservative but
0:02:48 > 0:02:52Labour as well. But it is a free bra atmosphere and MPs themselves are
0:02:52 > 0:02:58very afraid. Boiling up and away but it also has something to say about
0:02:58 > 0:03:06the very peculiar working conditions at Westminster. The abuse of power
0:03:06 > 0:03:11within very undefined and old-fashioned working relationships.
0:03:11 > 0:03:18-- febrile Atmosphere. There is not recourse in a lot of these cases, if
0:03:18 > 0:03:22you have a complaint against an MP, who do you make it to, they are like
0:03:22 > 0:03:25little fiefdoms, and the parties are not very good at policing this, I
0:03:25 > 0:03:31want to keep reputations as clean to the outside world as they can be.
0:03:31 > 0:03:37All that is boiling up. It is a legacy of some quite old-fashioned,
0:03:37 > 0:03:40distinctly weird employment practices, when you look at it.The
0:03:40 > 0:03:45compensation has been, this is the power of patronage, so intertwined.
0:03:45 > 0:03:50Yes, and in the past, this has been used, the list we have been talking
0:03:50 > 0:03:54about, this was drawn up by Chief whips and they were using this
0:03:54 > 0:04:00information to discipline MPs, to twist their arms, make them vote in
0:04:00 > 0:04:03the direction the party leadership wanted rather than using the
0:04:03 > 0:04:08information to say, this behaviour is not on. There is really a
0:04:08 > 0:04:13culture, a profoundly disturbing culture, masculine, some scholars
0:04:13 > 0:04:19would say, referring to a really distasteful abusive culture towards
0:04:19 > 0:04:22women, towards younger employees, occurs it is also affected young
0:04:22 > 0:04:26men, young researchers. That reflects the wider culture in which
0:04:26 > 0:04:31we live. As Bronwen mentioned, this is a result of the lack of rules,
0:04:31 > 0:04:38there is no recourse, there is no HR department in the House of Commons.
0:04:38 > 0:04:42That can issue guidelines. And it is also the result of not enough women
0:04:42 > 0:04:47in the House of Commons. When you have more women, when you have
0:04:47 > 0:04:50gender parity, within a chamber, the culture of the chamber changes
0:04:50 > 0:04:55because women feel far more emboldened to say, this is not on.
0:04:55 > 0:04:59But men also behave better, they know that actually very certain
0:04:59 > 0:05:03behaviour that cannot be accepted. Is that something unique to the
0:05:03 > 0:05:07British political system, how would this pair with what has happened in
0:05:07 > 0:05:12France?Exec to the frame in France but in France, you had people not
0:05:12 > 0:05:19saying anything because no one will listen. You had a privacy law
0:05:19 > 0:05:22instead. That privacy law allowed people to do terrible things. I
0:05:22 > 0:05:27remember, when I was at Le Monde, the main job was to cover the
0:05:27 > 0:05:34minister of finance. There was a sexual predator, they reported
0:05:34 > 0:05:38constantly to the editors, and they said, can't do anything, he is a
0:05:38 > 0:05:41friend of mine. He is a friend about. That was Dominique Strauss
0:05:41 > 0:05:46Kahn. If something had been done then, we would not have had that
0:05:46 > 0:05:51incident.The incident in New York. So it is exactly the same.It
0:05:51 > 0:05:56creates a culture in which you cannot say anything, is that because
0:05:56 > 0:05:59the law potentially protects you, but in the case of Westminster,
0:05:59 > 0:06:05actually, it is sometimes -- it has sometimes suited the political
0:06:05 > 0:06:09organisations not to have this exposed.And they have been
0:06:09 > 0:06:13discussingusing it for internal purposes but not exposed publicly.
0:06:13 > 0:06:18Does that make it credible when they now say, we will now have... There
0:06:18 > 0:06:20needs to be independent procedures, meeting on Monday to discuss
0:06:20 > 0:06:25attentional code of practice.I think she is right, there needs to
0:06:25 > 0:06:31be an independent body of standards, and a body for complaints. There is
0:06:31 > 0:06:36something, the IBSA, that was set up after the expenses scandal, that
0:06:36 > 0:06:41deals only with pay and expenses, the standards it was taken out of
0:06:41 > 0:06:44the remit at the last minute by MPs. -- IPSA. Now I think we need an
0:06:44 > 0:06:52independent body on behaviour and on this HR function.And working
0:06:52 > 0:06:55practices, things have changed tremendously in the last 20 years,
0:06:55 > 0:07:02the late is, where staying late at night, drinking and so on, that led
0:07:02 > 0:07:05to really unsavoury things happening. And so, the working
0:07:05 > 0:07:08practices, the working culture of the House of Commons, the way it
0:07:08 > 0:07:12should work it should be more like a normal place of employment, where
0:07:12 > 0:07:20actually, that encourages good practice.This is an interesting
0:07:20 > 0:07:24intersection between politics, the world Westminster and the world of
0:07:24 > 0:07:27Hollywood, two sectors where these are hothouse environment, the
0:07:27 > 0:07:32gatekeepers to power are very few, and so, potential for abuses of that
0:07:32 > 0:07:36power are very great, and the mechanisms for reporting are very
0:07:36 > 0:07:41full tea or nonexistent in some case.The magazine has been
0:07:41 > 0:07:47reporting the entertainment industry since the days of vaudeville. --
0:07:47 > 0:07:54faulty.Journalism is complicit in some of this, the culture has been
0:07:54 > 0:08:01known about, Hollywood coined the phrase the casting couch, and yet
0:08:01 > 0:08:07the unsavoury side of this has not been exposed.Journalists bear
0:08:07 > 0:08:11responsibility but it was very hard to get people to go on the record
0:08:11 > 0:08:13with these accusations, you do not want to come forward with
0:08:13 > 0:08:20unsubstantiated stories. What I find discouraging about these scandals in
0:08:20 > 0:08:23politics and entertainment is they are nothing new, in the US, I
0:08:23 > 0:08:31remember the Clarence Thomas Anita Hill hearing and he subsequently was
0:08:31 > 0:08:36appointed to the Supreme Court. We had Dominique Strauss Kahn. Over the
0:08:36 > 0:08:40years... They seem to burst into the national conversation, you think
0:08:40 > 0:08:47there will be measures taken to combat and there is not.
0:08:49 > 0:08:54As the hashtag metoo gone far enough? Has it gone too far?Speak
0:08:54 > 0:08:58to any young teenager, female teenager, and they will tell you
0:08:58 > 0:09:04that this kind of behaviour is part of their daily lives, and this is
0:09:04 > 0:09:10not on, it is not pleasant, it makes people feel devalued. And in this...
0:09:10 > 0:09:15It is part of culture where women are seen as objects, not real
0:09:15 > 0:09:20persons, who have rights and their own integrity, where their bodies
0:09:20 > 0:09:25are discussed and at the disposal of the public. This is part of a very
0:09:25 > 0:09:29strong and pervasive culture. It has not gone far enough and it needs to
0:09:29 > 0:09:35extend...The French presidents have all been sexual predators, they have
0:09:35 > 0:09:39all been elected, and nothing came out except when they were dead.I
0:09:39 > 0:09:44think it can go too far, in the sense of accusations against people
0:09:44 > 0:09:47who... In circumstances where there is not really power or employment or
0:09:47 > 0:09:52something involved, look, I feel oppressed by this. The nature of
0:09:52 > 0:09:56this, there is going to be exaggeration. I don't think that in
0:09:56 > 0:10:02itself it is a bad thing compared to the huge value.Taking this to
0:10:02 > 0:10:05Westminster, we have at the first signs of a pushback, one
0:10:05 > 0:10:08Conservative MP who has not been accused of anything, one of the
0:10:08 > 0:10:15veterans, saying, there is a danger of a witchhunt, other MPs, a
0:10:15 > 0:10:18Conservative MP, who had the governing party whip withdrawn,
0:10:18 > 0:10:22otherwise he cannot sit as a party representative, because of serious
0:10:22 > 0:10:27allegation that the party passed to the police, he said, the media told
0:10:27 > 0:10:31him, he was not told. There is a potential problem here. Talking
0:10:31 > 0:10:35about duty of care, there is a potential problem.Yes, I think
0:10:35 > 0:10:39there is, you do not want to see a political career, and a lot of
0:10:39 > 0:10:42stress and risk over the years, going up in smoke because of
0:10:42 > 0:10:47something that is not proven and may never be properly tested. I think
0:10:47 > 0:10:50this is where procedures really matter, whether it goes to the
0:10:50 > 0:10:54police. You want something else, short of the police, to investigate
0:10:54 > 0:10:57these things and set some of them aside, because it is in the nature
0:10:57 > 0:11:03of that.That is where it is important to have procedures in
0:11:03 > 0:11:06place, also to protect the people who are full sleep cues.
0:11:09 > 0:11:19-- falsely accused.I think there should be a right organism in this.
0:11:19 > 0:11:23Is there a danger for the Prime Minister in this, if she is seen to
0:11:23 > 0:11:31readily to hand over her MPs to this kind of environment, some will have
0:11:31 > 0:11:35done things where they deserve to be handed over, but some MPs are
0:11:35 > 0:11:38contesting claims against them, this becomes another problem for her as a
0:11:38 > 0:11:43Prime Minister perceived as weak. Now people saying, she is not even
0:11:43 > 0:11:47on our side.The greatest danger would not be seen to be responding
0:11:47 > 0:11:53properly. The second greatest danger is to lose key people, that she
0:11:53 > 0:11:57really needs, she is in a weak position but having said that, this
0:11:57 > 0:12:02is a scandal that goes right across all parties, equally balanced
0:12:02 > 0:12:07allegations. She has done the right thing by saying, we need a body in
0:12:07 > 0:12:12Parliament and we must meet next week.We all are what happened with
0:12:12 > 0:12:15the expenses, where, as soon as it was set up, MPs will start
0:12:15 > 0:12:19complaining, that is what happened with the independent expenses body.
0:12:19 > 0:12:23And that is equally a danger here, but we need a political earthquake
0:12:23 > 0:12:27for these institutional cultural changes to happen, they do not
0:12:27 > 0:12:31happen incrementally, you need trigger offence to fall smack of
0:12:31 > 0:12:35force these changes.Will it happen in Hollywood?I think it is, the
0:12:35 > 0:12:39snowball effect of the allegations has wrapped in so many other
0:12:39 > 0:12:43figures, no longer just Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey, also Brett
0:12:43 > 0:12:47Ratner, another producer, so I think these are really beginning to
0:12:47 > 0:12:51emerge. And the understanding that this is no longer a way to keep
0:12:51 > 0:12:55operating in Hollywood.
0:12:56 > 0:12:59The rise of the chief whip, the arch fixer in politics,
0:12:59 > 0:13:02is the story arc for the American TV series House of Cards.
0:13:02 > 0:13:04Sex allegations against Kevin Spacey, who plays whip turned
0:13:04 > 0:13:06President Frank Underwood, appear to have brought that show,
0:13:06 > 0:13:08and its fictional presidency, to a premature end.
0:13:08 > 0:13:11The prospects of Donald Trump seeing out his real-life presidential term
0:13:11 > 0:13:13had looked threatened by the appointment of Robert Mueller.
0:13:13 > 0:13:15The special prosecutor has spent months examining allegations
0:13:15 > 0:13:16of Russian collusion in the Trump campaign.
0:13:16 > 0:13:18On Monday he filed charges against former members
0:13:18 > 0:13:20of the presidential campaign team, allegations of money
0:13:20 > 0:13:31laundering unrelated to the US presidential election.
0:13:32 > 0:13:37Henry, Donald Trump was quick to point out that this all dated two
0:13:37 > 0:13:41before he even entered politics, it is to do with money from Ukraine.
0:13:41 > 0:13:48Can you relax that? -- can he relax now?First of all, he's right in
0:13:48 > 0:13:51saying this had nothing directly to do with his campaign but he ran on a
0:13:51 > 0:13:54platform of saying, I know how to pick good people to be surrounded
0:13:54 > 0:14:00with and we are going to drain the swamp, we have a swamp creature who
0:14:00 > 0:14:05has emerged from the mark. What has happened is significant in two ways:
0:14:05 > 0:14:08Paul Manafort, former campaign chairman, and another campaign
0:14:08 > 0:14:13person, Rick Gates, and... They are done up on charges that are quite
0:14:13 > 0:14:18grave, they carried the threat of heavy prison sentences. Robert
0:14:18 > 0:14:23Mueller is putting out the signal that, look, I'm going after the big
0:14:23 > 0:14:28fish, too, and the pressure that is now on them, to sing, in jailhouse
0:14:28 > 0:14:35darlings, is now far greater. And now we have George Papadopoulos. --
0:14:35 > 0:14:41to sing, in jailhouse parlance. He has admitted to lying to
0:14:41 > 0:14:45investigators, pleaded guilty to that.He has done a deal, a lighter
0:14:45 > 0:14:50sentence.Yes, and he has said that he met with Russians who promise to
0:14:50 > 0:14:54give dirt on Hillary Clinton. Beyond that, senior campaign officials
0:14:54 > 0:14:58encouraged him to have these meetings. Again, Robert Mueller is
0:14:58 > 0:15:01saying, I know what you did last summer and it is time for you to
0:15:01 > 0:15:05start talking!You have worked in Washington, you know how the system
0:15:05 > 0:15:09operates there are, it is still a long time from saying there is a
0:15:09 > 0:15:12smoking gun that proves there was a conspiracy involving the Trump
0:15:12 > 0:15:17campaign and the Russians.Yes, it is a long way but I think this
0:15:17 > 0:15:20matters for several reasons: one, these prosecutions, these
0:15:20 > 0:15:26investigations will be going on next year, through the spring and summer,
0:15:26 > 0:15:30right as the midterm campaign for Congress are getting underway, and I
0:15:30 > 0:15:37think that could hurt Republicans and hurt trump's own standing,
0:15:37 > 0:15:42Republicans may want to distance themselves even more, it will do
0:15:42 > 0:15:46nothing to help him get things through Congress, like tax plans.
0:15:46 > 0:15:49And, it does make to meet impeachment that bit more likely.
0:15:49 > 0:15:56The possibility of it. Very hard in the US system to stop these legal
0:15:56 > 0:16:00wheels grinding, this investigation is not going away, he will be dogged
0:16:00 > 0:16:05by it.The threshold for impeachment is so high.Yes but, this legal
0:16:05 > 0:16:09process, it is not going to disappear. There will have to be a
0:16:09 > 0:16:12lot of steps.What I find interesting, Nigel Farage, quite
0:16:12 > 0:16:21close to him... Former leader of Ukip... Back from Washington. All
0:16:21 > 0:16:26this Russian thing... Saying it is a is conspiracy... I remember, my
0:16:26 > 0:16:29first beat was Washington, Watergate, the same thing that Nixon
0:16:29 > 0:16:35was saying. I think that shows that the thing is not only in the US,
0:16:35 > 0:16:39this despair, in the White House, going with this conspiracy theory,
0:16:39 > 0:16:45but also, Europe, European angle to the Russian thing. The role of
0:16:45 > 0:16:48Russia in the Brexit campaign, the role of Russia with Marine Le Pen
0:16:48 > 0:16:54against Emmanuel Macron, fake news. We need an enquiry about the Russian
0:16:54 > 0:17:00lobby in Europe. The former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, the
0:17:00 > 0:17:07former Prime Minister Dominique, what was the role of Russia in
0:17:07 > 0:17:13"Brexit" and Wikileaks.Also, Julian Assange, the hats, sharing paps many
0:17:13 > 0:17:18of the e-mails that Wikileaks had hacked. There is a connection there
0:17:18 > 0:17:20in the ongoing... In the investigation that just started in
0:17:20 > 0:17:24the United Kingdom about the role of Russia.-- Dominique de Villepin.
0:17:24 > 0:17:27The possible role of Russia in the Leave campaign, the European
0:17:27 > 0:17:32referendum, in 2016. This is quite massive, but in terms of the
0:17:32 > 0:17:40American implications, the idea that this administration would drain the
0:17:40 > 0:17:43swamp and change politics, that is an illusion, and the longer the
0:17:43 > 0:17:47investigation drags on, the more the reputation... Because we also see
0:17:47 > 0:17:51the links in the distillation of the entire trump family and how they are
0:17:51 > 0:17:58all involved.Interesting, Donald Trump, this has been about financial
0:17:58 > 0:18:01charges, at this stage, principally, financial misappropriation of funds,
0:18:01 > 0:18:06illegally moving money around, lying about it. Donald Trump said very
0:18:06 > 0:18:12early on, when Robert Mueller was appointed, keep well clear of my
0:18:12 > 0:18:15family's finances. If he takes the view that was indicated there, that
0:18:15 > 0:18:19he will look at this, is that legitimate or inappropriate?
0:18:19 > 0:18:23Finances applies to Paul Manafort and dates, but not George Popper
0:18:23 > 0:18:26double is, that was about talking to Russian operatives who were
0:18:26 > 0:18:33promising a political score over an opponent. Now we are looking at
0:18:33 > 0:18:37Jared Kushner.The son-in-law of Donald Trump.Yes, in an
0:18:37 > 0:18:41investigation about the Russians, not about formerly finances. --
0:18:41 > 0:18:45family finances. This is where you get small dangerous for Donald
0:18:45 > 0:18:49Trump. It is not facing his supporters, which is remarkable, his
0:18:49 > 0:18:53support among his base and many Republicans remains strong. They
0:18:53 > 0:18:58seem to dismiss this in a way that, if we performed a small thought
0:18:58 > 0:19:00experiment, if the same array of people around Hillary Clinton were
0:19:00 > 0:19:05accused of these contact with the Chinese, let's say, the promised
0:19:05 > 0:19:09dirt on Donald Trump, would we not see a huge outcry from the
0:19:09 > 0:19:13Republican side, absolutely.You were in Washington, at the time of
0:19:13 > 0:19:16Watergate, presumably the temptation for some of Donald Trump's allies
0:19:16 > 0:19:19and supporters will be to say he should fire the special prosecutor,
0:19:19 > 0:19:27you know...When Nixon fired Richardson, was done, you do not
0:19:27 > 0:19:36fire the prosecutor. I remember, the night of the long fight, and so...
0:19:36 > 0:19:44We may arrive at the same situation. I think the only problem is that the
0:19:44 > 0:19:52vice president is hardly any better! We will have an evangelical.--
0:19:52 > 0:19:58Saturday Night Massacre.But he is a predictable one.Donald Trump is off
0:19:58 > 0:20:04on this specific tour, 25 years since a US president last spent this
0:20:04 > 0:20:07long in the Pacific, how important do you think this is going to be to
0:20:07 > 0:20:15his foreign policy director.It is a long trip, 11 days, his longest
0:20:15 > 0:20:19trip, it comes as he has been saying all these things, mainly on Twitter,
0:20:19 > 0:20:24about North Korea, leaving the world, not just Asia, very unclear
0:20:24 > 0:20:32how far he would go. China, really, struggling to know what to make of
0:20:32 > 0:20:37him, and indeed, to be right about him, in a way, all really doggedly
0:20:37 > 0:20:41trying to treat him as a conventional US president, finding
0:20:41 > 0:20:45that increasingly hard. Japan very worried about how much the US
0:20:45 > 0:20:49alliance can really be counted upon. Japan, interesting debate about
0:20:49 > 0:20:53whether it should build up its own Armed Forces, explicit debate there,
0:20:53 > 0:20:58and so... A lot of Asia recalibrating relations between
0:20:58 > 0:21:03these countries, and wondering how much to change their own perception
0:21:03 > 0:21:07of relations with the US, regardless of what Donald Trump says. So it
0:21:07 > 0:21:11matters a lot. We may not get anything much more consistent out of
0:21:11 > 0:21:15him in terms of what he says but everything he says or does not say
0:21:15 > 0:21:20is going to be pored over.In terms of the president, almost does not
0:21:20 > 0:21:24matter who is in the White House, Washington and the US matters hugely
0:21:24 > 0:21:28in that part of the world. Barack Obama talked about a tilt towards
0:21:28 > 0:21:35the Pacific. Has that been delivered in practical terms, leaving aside
0:21:35 > 0:21:39the grand talk and the change of the faces at the top, in terms of the
0:21:39 > 0:21:43engagement with the region, has that happened?It happened under Obama,
0:21:43 > 0:21:50you have the Pacific partnership, the free trade agreement, that has
0:21:50 > 0:21:53been scrapped by Donald Trump's administration. With his bellicose
0:21:53 > 0:21:57rhetoric engaged in with North Korea, that has contributed to
0:21:57 > 0:22:02uncertainty. He is going there for trade, not just nuclear policy and
0:22:02 > 0:22:05North Korea, and the fact there are large deficits with South Korea,
0:22:05 > 0:22:11with China, obviously, and so he needs to score some success on that
0:22:11 > 0:22:17front, both in terms of finding new markets for US companies and also
0:22:17 > 0:22:20getting China on board with the North Korea policy. Whether he can
0:22:20 > 0:22:23deliver that, with this Robert Mueller investigation hanging over
0:22:23 > 0:22:28him... If more allegations came out during that trip, he would be
0:22:28 > 0:22:31weakened, the leveraged you would have in any negotiations in
0:22:31 > 0:22:34Asia-Pacific would be
0:22:35 > 0:22:40He has been assessed with Europe, came to France for the 14th of July,
0:22:40 > 0:22:48UK, "Brexit", Russia, there has been a change. The future of the US is in
0:22:48 > 0:22:51Asia, Barack Obama said, but Donald Trump has not saying that, so it'll
0:22:51 > 0:22:56be interesting to see what this trip is going to be like.In terms of
0:22:56 > 0:22:59practical effects of this, a lot of talk about what he might say about
0:22:59 > 0:23:02North Korea while he is touring around the region, even if he does
0:23:02 > 0:23:06not say to the cameras, how he may try to reassure Japan and South
0:23:06 > 0:23:11Korea.This is the problem, how unpredictable he is, how
0:23:11 > 0:23:14inconveniently may become. So far the world has been safe because the
0:23:14 > 0:23:19State Department has more less controlled diplomacy and has come
0:23:19 > 0:23:21back every time Donald Trump makes a controversial claim about North
0:23:21 > 0:23:28Korea. But let's see for how long the Secretary of State will be able
0:23:28 > 0:23:33to be in charge of that part of diplomatic affairs.Do we overstate
0:23:33 > 0:23:38the ability of China to influence affairs in North Korea, do you
0:23:38 > 0:23:45think?No, we do not, in fact, we understated! I think this is China's
0:23:45 > 0:23:50problem to solve, the point is that China does not want to solve it in
0:23:50 > 0:23:55the way that we would like it solved. China has been a protector,
0:23:55 > 0:24:00in a way, of North Korea, it does not want North Korea to fall, either
0:24:00 > 0:24:02because of the refugees but more importantly because that would
0:24:02 > 0:24:09create probably a kind of unified Korea, sympathetic to America, with
0:24:09 > 0:24:15American troops with access to the Chinese border. So North Korea is a
0:24:15 > 0:24:18better option, even with an unpredictable figure. They do not
0:24:18 > 0:24:21think he is as unpredictable as we do, and certainly, they are aware
0:24:21 > 0:24:25they control pretty much everything going in and out and in terms of
0:24:25 > 0:24:29resources and trade for North Korea. It is probably more unpredictable
0:24:29 > 0:24:33than they would like at the moment but they have not really taken many
0:24:33 > 0:24:38steps that we can see to Arsenal career to come back in line. But
0:24:38 > 0:24:44they have the power to do that.You are right to a large degree, the
0:24:44 > 0:24:47historic phrase they use is that China and North Korea are like lips
0:24:47 > 0:24:51and teeth, that is how close they are, I heard that a lot when I was
0:24:51 > 0:24:56based in Beijing. They could be working at Elizabeth Moore together
0:24:56 > 0:25:00to create a smile! As opposed to something else. -- they could be
0:25:00 > 0:25:04working a little bit more together. China has its own domestic problems,
0:25:04 > 0:25:10in terms of economy and corruption, Xi Jinping is emerging as an
0:25:10 > 0:25:16incredible power, strongest since Mauser Dong, working his own
0:25:16 > 0:25:27philosophy into the constitution. -- Mao Zedong. We could see some
0:25:27 > 0:25:34benefit.This would help China to promote itself as a global power,
0:25:34 > 0:25:40the way that China wants to continue to do business, as they have always
0:25:40 > 0:25:44done, but without any consideration for the global indications of their
0:25:44 > 0:25:49actions. To be seen as there are global actor, perhaps, perhaps a
0:25:49 > 0:25:56different tact using North Korea, just maybe a tiny tweak would help.
0:25:56 > 0:26:00In those global ambition.There is a lot about this which suits China,
0:26:00 > 0:26:04South Korea has two distance itself from America, we really don't want a
0:26:04 > 0:26:09war here! That helps China.We certainly do not! Thank you very
0:26:09 > 0:26:13much for joining us.
0:26:13 > 0:26:16That's all we have time for this week. Do join us again next week
0:26:16 > 0:26:23same time, same place, but for now thank you for watching and goodbye.