0:00:26 > 0:00:31This is dateline London. This week, two ways to shuffle your rivals out
0:00:31 > 0:00:36of the door. House arrest in a luxury hotel, was 6500 kilometre
0:00:36 > 0:00:40flight of shame. To discuss whether Saudi Arabia sora perjure a power
0:00:40 > 0:00:44grab this weekend, and whether the resignation of the British cabinet
0:00:44 > 0:00:46minister Priti Patel was a mist opportunity for Prime Minister
0:00:46 > 0:00:51Theresa May, I'm joined by Ian Martin, columnist for The Times Of
0:00:51 > 0:00:56London,, who is his column to clear out the old lags and bring some
0:00:56 > 0:00:58fresh talent into her government, Agnes Poirier who endeavours to
0:00:58 > 0:01:04explain Brexit to the folks back home, Nazarene Malik, Sudanese
0:01:04 > 0:01:10journalist and reader of the rooms for us on the Saudi political mask,
0:01:10 > 0:01:14and Jeffrey Coffman, the North American broadcaster who will bring
0:01:14 > 0:01:20an American perspective. A warm welcome to all of you.
0:01:20 > 0:01:23Last Saturday will live long in the memory of Saudis and of those
0:01:23 > 0:01:24who observe the country.
0:01:24 > 0:01:26A day of high drama began with the resignation
0:01:26 > 0:01:29of Lebanon's Prime Minister, not in Beirut, his own country's
0:01:29 > 0:01:30capital, but in Riyadh.
0:01:30 > 0:01:33Some suggested he had been summoned to the Kingdom and ordered to resign
0:01:33 > 0:01:35after the Saudis found out he'd met a representative of
0:01:35 > 0:01:44the supreme leader of Iran, Saudi Arabia's regional rival.
0:01:44 > 0:01:47That same evening, the Saudis shot down a missile fired
0:01:47 > 0:01:49by Houthi rebels from Yemen, a reminder of a far less successful
0:01:49 > 0:01:52bit of foreign meddling where Saudi intervention has singularly failed
0:01:52 > 0:01:53to end the rebellion.
0:01:53 > 0:01:55Then, a little before midnight, in a country where politics
0:01:55 > 0:01:57is usually conducted well out of sight and change
0:01:57 > 0:01:59agreed by consensus, news of an anti-corruption purge
0:01:59 > 0:02:01which snared serving government ministers and past ones,
0:02:01 > 0:02:03and even members of the country's extensive royal family.
0:02:03 > 0:02:10The Attorney General tells us this is only phase one.
0:02:10 > 0:02:12Nesrine, a phases ordered, it is said, by King Salman's
0:02:12 > 0:02:21son, the Crown Prince.
0:02:21 > 0:02:27What is he up to?Too much, the heir to the throne is very much loved by
0:02:27 > 0:02:31the media because he has presented himself as a moderniser but he's
0:02:31 > 0:02:35also young and rash and part of a generation of Saudi princes kind of
0:02:35 > 0:02:45brought up in the bubble of royalty. There are three generations of Saudi
0:02:45 > 0:02:47royalty, the old generation, the generation of the King, who remember
0:02:47 > 0:02:54what it was like not to be royalty. They are in their 70s and 80s and
0:02:54 > 0:02:59they have some perspective. The second generation of Princes go to
0:02:59 > 0:03:02Sandhurst and Ivy League universities and become diplomats,
0:03:02 > 0:03:06very dedicated and westernised, and then there's the millennial
0:03:06 > 0:03:09generation of Princess, much more dangerous because they've left the
0:03:09 > 0:03:13whole life in a bubble and don't have the perspective of being
0:03:13 > 0:03:17ordinary citizens fighting for a monarchy and they don't have the
0:03:17 > 0:03:21exposure to the outside world that gives them perspective and the
0:03:21 > 0:03:26Prince's Sun is very much of that generation. The danger is the
0:03:26 > 0:03:30disconnect between what he's doing and his tactility and perception of
0:03:30 > 0:03:34it because he hasn't had any real-life experience either as a
0:03:34 > 0:03:41politician or an individual. That's where he's coming from as a
0:03:41 > 0:03:43reformer, quote, unquote. Within the Saudi establishment because things
0:03:43 > 0:03:49have happened so quickly, he feels he needs to do a pre-emptive perch
0:03:49 > 0:03:55because he has set aside the previous heir to the throne who is
0:03:55 > 0:04:00under house arrest at the moment. So this is a sort of pre-emptive coup
0:04:00 > 0:04:04that he has done to make sure that there is no movement on behalf of
0:04:04 > 0:04:08the old regime to get him out of the picture. Which would have been very
0:04:08 > 0:04:13possible because he's young, he hasn't had amassed huge network of
0:04:13 > 0:04:16patronage at within the royal family or the Saudi establishment. And
0:04:16 > 0:04:24people against him are some very influential people. His assets are
0:04:24 > 0:04:29open to rationalisation, so that's not a great position of them to be
0:04:29 > 0:04:37in. He's trying to pre-emptively consolidate power within the hands
0:04:37 > 0:04:44of him and his coterie, and in doing so he stressed and a bus
0:04:44 > 0:04:51anti-corruption and clever foreign policy, -- he has stressed it up. He
0:04:51 > 0:04:57has dressed it up as anti-Iran movements. So he has taken three
0:04:57 > 0:05:04things, anti-Hezbollah, anti-Shi'ism manifested as being anti-Iran, the
0:05:04 > 0:05:10perch within the royal family and his sort of pivot towards
0:05:10 > 0:05:15modernisation and technology -- the perch. But all these are dressed up
0:05:15 > 0:05:20consummate editions of power. Completely. This would corruption,
0:05:20 > 0:05:26that implies that that is said is not corrupta Saudi royal that isn't
0:05:26 > 0:05:34corrupt!It's a very, very big Royal family, a lot of people.My point is
0:05:34 > 0:05:38there is no rule of law by transparency or accountability.And
0:05:38 > 0:05:45is a different economic and political culture. Nine this word of
0:05:45 > 0:05:47corruption has been used conveniently by Vladimir Putin in
0:05:47 > 0:05:58the past and used by China. It's not really about that. A lot of
0:05:58 > 0:06:01double-dealing and illegal payments have gone on in the country for a
0:06:01 > 0:06:08long time. So we are talking about political...You could have
0:06:08 > 0:06:12substituted North Korea for much of what you just said about
0:06:12 > 0:06:18consolidating power and eliminating threats to power.What makes this
0:06:18 > 0:06:22particularly dangerous is that two things happening simultaneously are
0:06:22 > 0:06:26conflated. You've got the domestic situation, that centralisation of
0:06:26 > 0:06:34power away from a diffuse leadership in which there are a lot at stake
0:06:34 > 0:06:41holders, towards a centralised reformist model, as NBS is trying to
0:06:41 > 0:06:49do now. Simultaneously it is also about Iran and the Saudis. This is
0:06:49 > 0:06:57where it gets dangerous. Globally. Because you essentially have NBS,
0:06:57 > 0:07:05backed by Trump although not by Rex Tillerson, so the US administration
0:07:05 > 0:07:09is split but Trump is very much endorsing what this prince says and
0:07:09 > 0:07:15would probably love to do it in America.Is close to the Crown
0:07:15 > 0:07:19prince and has been an interlocutor for him. Rex Tillerson warned about
0:07:19 > 0:07:28the proxy wars.That warning was aimed at Trump. Trump tweeted that
0:07:28 > 0:07:33the Crown Prince knows precisely what he is doing, and the fear is
0:07:33 > 0:07:46that Trump, Binyamin Netanyahu in Israel, and I Crown Prince taking on
0:07:46 > 0:07:51too much, and the target is Iran and building up some sort of conflict
0:07:51 > 0:08:01with Iran.Is that why, Agnes, the president of fans rushed there? They
0:08:01 > 0:08:09still take an interest in local affairs there.He was a friend of
0:08:09 > 0:08:14many French presidents. Resident Macron was in Abu Dhabi for the
0:08:14 > 0:08:20opening of the Luke Wright Museum and did a surprise visit and spent
0:08:20 > 0:08:29time with Mohammed bin Salman, MBS. I could not put better than Nesrine
0:08:29 > 0:08:34did on the domestic stage but what is perplexing and frightening to see
0:08:34 > 0:08:44from the West is that new configurations of Israel, Trump and
0:08:44 > 0:08:49MBS on Iran. It could fizzle out as it sometimes does in the least but I
0:08:49 > 0:08:56think there is a risk of conflict there, and again, 11 years later,
0:08:56 > 0:09:05flying the northern border of Israel, and Israel, Lebanon is
0:09:05 > 0:09:14against this hostage, the playground of regional politics. We don't know
0:09:14 > 0:09:25where he is, he was born in Riyadh. He is a national. Adam think France
0:09:25 > 0:09:28can do anything. Macron went there and said, please can you do
0:09:28 > 0:09:34something that what could the West do? We could do something that we
0:09:34 > 0:09:42have Trump.The West is morally compromised because the West has
0:09:42 > 0:09:45sold so many billion dollars worth of arms to Saudi Arabia, used them
0:09:45 > 0:10:00against Yemen, in the last two years, even more from the US...That
0:10:00 > 0:10:12is the leverage, we are told that... Commit is the Prince, full-back.I
0:10:12 > 0:10:16think the reality is that these arms are so important that they employ
0:10:16 > 0:10:21people in the US and Canada so that renders governments impotent. They
0:10:21 > 0:10:33dare not stop the arms sales because of jobs.It is not by accident that
0:10:33 > 0:10:37the British view is that Yemen is a proxy war and it would be a bad
0:10:37 > 0:10:43thing for the region if Iran, which is effectively running the war in
0:10:43 > 0:10:48Yemen, if Yemen. That, and Saudi eventually fell in some way or that
0:10:48 > 0:10:53was regional disruption, I know it is a dirty war, a terrible mass but
0:10:53 > 0:10:58there is logic behind it as well which is trying to block the
0:10:58 > 0:11:07progress of the Iranians.In this view that there is a moral
0:11:07 > 0:11:11responsibility and behalf of the West to contain a waterfront
0:11:11 > 0:11:16befuddling.Not much different from when they played a colonial role.
0:11:16 > 0:11:22We've fallen into this mindset, when there is trouble in these countries
0:11:22 > 0:11:36what can we do as if we were some kind of moral arbiter.In Yemen,, it
0:11:36 > 0:11:48certainly hasn't been an unqualified success.It is possible it could be
0:11:48 > 0:11:55a quagmire. This is went because people feel there is something that
0:11:55 > 0:12:04needs to happen. I think the best case scenario is that it turns into
0:12:04 > 0:12:08Dubai, and mandated Royal family and rate. But this too much water under
0:12:08 > 0:12:15the bridge in terms of radicalisation and sectarianism so
0:12:15 > 0:12:19to get to a Dubai situation there is a lot that needs to happen and it
0:12:19 > 0:12:23could get messy.OK.
0:12:23 > 0:12:25Wednesday was a very long day in Downing Street.
0:12:25 > 0:12:28The Prime Minister Theresa May wanted to be rid of Priti Patel,
0:12:28 > 0:12:30a Cabinet colleague, who'd failed to disclose the full
0:12:30 > 0:12:32extent of her freelance meddling in Middle East politics whilst
0:12:32 > 0:12:34she was supposedly on a family holiday.
0:12:34 > 0:12:36Unfortunately, Miss Patel, who just 48 hours before had been
0:12:36 > 0:12:39given a dressing down and told she could stay in her job
0:12:39 > 0:12:42but who now faced more damaging revelations,
0:12:42 > 0:12:44was 6,500 miles away, in Uganda.
0:12:44 > 0:12:45She was ordered back to London.
0:12:45 > 0:12:48It took many hours before her plane touched down,
0:12:48 > 0:12:51she was whisked to Downing Street, in through the back door
0:12:51 > 0:12:53of Number Ten, the Prime Minister's office, and then out
0:12:53 > 0:12:54of Government altogether.
0:12:54 > 0:12:56Iain, what had she done wrong?
0:12:56 > 0:12:59And what do you think the way that this has been handled tells us about
0:12:59 > 0:13:06the state of play in the British government?The Priti Patel story at
0:13:06 > 0:13:12least shows that Britain is a world leader in producing files. People
0:13:12 > 0:13:15will remember Fawlty Towers... This is the government equivalent --
0:13:15 > 0:13:22farce. She had been effectively freelancing in foreign policy terms,
0:13:22 > 0:13:27and why she had felt able to do that is very revealing about what is
0:13:27 > 0:13:36wrong with the state of the government. The UK Parliament looks
0:13:36 > 0:13:41like Hogwarts and is in fact a school, very like a school. The
0:13:41 > 0:13:46politicians know that the headmistress is devoid of all
0:13:46 > 0:13:50authority, and in those circumstances you get chaos. People
0:13:50 > 0:13:55don't fear the sack or the withdrawal of patronage in the way
0:13:55 > 0:13:58that they would with a stronger Prime Minister. So she's in a
0:13:58 > 0:14:05difficult position. Conventionally she should, and I would urge her to
0:14:05 > 0:14:11radically clear up the cabinet and bring in new people.Is she waiting
0:14:11 > 0:14:20because you talk about authority and the budget is coming, it's the most
0:14:20 > 0:14:27important political stage apart from Brexit...Brexit isn't going well,
0:14:27 > 0:14:31there's a budget come on November 22, the scope for manoeuvre is
0:14:31 > 0:14:39limited. If she did go for the bold reshuffle, it could be the last
0:14:39 > 0:14:44thing she did in office.She would be reshuffling herself out of her
0:14:44 > 0:14:48job.The lack of authority means she can't do it. Ultimately it comes
0:14:48 > 0:14:52back to what those of us thought after the botched election which
0:14:52 > 0:15:00went wrong and left with no majority in June, the UK effectively needs
0:15:00 > 0:15:10new leadership, the Tories need new leadership, a big question mark over
0:15:10 > 0:15:14who it would be but almost anyone would have more authority than the
0:15:14 > 0:15:19current incumbent.Anyone apart from Boris Johnson who was widely fancied
0:15:19 > 0:15:25but has had a difficult week, this plays into the debate about foreign
0:15:25 > 0:15:31affairs. While Brexit is going on he's been caught up in a row of a
0:15:31 > 0:15:35British Iranian prisoner.He has left it to Iran to decide on the
0:15:35 > 0:15:39fate of the British Foreign Minister which is amazing.He should be off
0:15:39 > 0:15:45there later this week to visit.He is known internationally, yes, but
0:15:45 > 0:15:54for being a clown. There are some people who still look up to Britain
0:15:54 > 0:16:00but also in despair because I didn't report on the Priti Patel story. Too
0:16:00 > 0:16:08many things happening, active head of the British government at the
0:16:08 > 0:16:20moment.To the European leadership expect a change of government in the
0:16:20 > 0:16:29UK or is that brinksmanship.The problem is that she is very weak.I
0:16:29 > 0:16:34think it is too late to show strength. She's lost that.It is in
0:16:34 > 0:16:39the interests of the Tory party to have her there, they like to be weak
0:16:39 > 0:16:51until they get rid of her.The Tory party and a lot of Brexiteers, and I
0:16:51 > 0:16:57speak as someone who voted for Brexit, there's a lot of dilution
0:16:57 > 0:17:07here, the Tory party can't decide who replaces her,...The phrase was,
0:17:07 > 0:17:14holding on to nurse for fear of someone was.I don't think it can be
0:17:14 > 0:17:20Boris Johnson, this mess with Iran vindicates the claims made by
0:17:20 > 0:17:24Michael Gove lost it when he said Mr Johnson didn't concentrate on the
0:17:24 > 0:17:29details and could not be trusted with highest office. This seems to
0:17:29 > 0:17:32vindicate him.He said that the woman who was being held, whose
0:17:32 > 0:17:38family say she was on holiday at the time, she is got joint citizenship,
0:17:38 > 0:17:43he said you was training journalists. This has been flatly
0:17:43 > 0:17:48denied by the authorities and by her family and gave some in authority in
0:17:48 > 0:17:54Iran the excuse to say this is not far short of being a spy.Classic
0:17:54 > 0:17:58Boris 's language but at some point, I would've thought, considering the
0:17:58 > 0:18:02mass of British politics at the moment, if Britain is to find a way
0:18:02 > 0:18:07to Brexit with the EU and things looked quite promising one month
0:18:07 > 0:18:12ago, less so now, I think it will require someone with a bit of
0:18:12 > 0:18:15authority. Interestingly Angela Merkel and Macron have done quite a
0:18:15 > 0:18:20bit to prop up Theresa May. Probably because they feared getting Johnson,
0:18:20 > 0:18:24or they were worried about dealing with. If it is not Johnson and it is
0:18:24 > 0:18:32someone else at least someone else would have the authority.This is
0:18:32 > 0:18:36the crazy thing, observed from the outside where a lot of people look
0:18:36 > 0:18:42up to Britain, you think, how, in this most civilised of democracies,
0:18:42 > 0:18:47is the playing field is so devoid of anyone that can be promoted into a
0:18:47 > 0:18:53position of power? The fact we're talking about Boris Johnson, Priti
0:18:53 > 0:18:57Patel, Theresa May, Jacob Rhys Mogg had this moment when some people
0:18:57 > 0:19:06thought he could be proposed as...A backbencher, quite eccentric.The
0:19:06 > 0:19:08point is that Brexit has sucked the air out of the room in British
0:19:08 > 0:19:15politics and everything has become infected with Brexit. Let's go back
0:19:15 > 0:19:20to the original sin, why is Theresa May weak. Because she is in a
0:19:20 > 0:19:23minority government. Why? Because she called an election to strengthen
0:19:23 > 0:19:29her mandate because of Brexit. Why are Boris Johnson and Priti Patel in
0:19:29 > 0:19:36those positions? They are Brexit loyalists. Why are we in dire
0:19:36 > 0:19:41straits, in negotiations, if people are deluded, it has affected
0:19:41 > 0:19:51everything.I can see the situation is sub optimal, that is a polite way
0:19:51 > 0:19:56of putting it, but I think something really interesting is happening
0:19:56 > 0:20:05here. It is chaotic but how could it be otherwise if effectively the
0:20:05 > 0:20:09dominant worldview of the British ruling elite or most of it, the
0:20:09 > 0:20:15governing elite of the last 40, 50 years about Britain operates, its
0:20:15 > 0:20:21relationship with the EU and people is leaving the EU, not leaving
0:20:21 > 0:20:24Europe, it is geographically impossible to do that, thank
0:20:24 > 0:20:31goodness. In those circumstances its ruling elite's worldview rejected by
0:20:31 > 0:20:36the majority of British voters who want self-government. In those
0:20:36 > 0:20:41circumstances of course it produces turmoil. Britain is having to
0:20:41 > 0:20:47rethink its place in the world.You are conflicting two things. You are
0:20:47 > 0:20:50conflating Brexit, the actual technical aspect of it with the
0:20:50 > 0:20:55chaos that has ensued. The fact that I is that Brexit hangs over British
0:20:55 > 0:21:00politics and drugs if does not mean Brexit is wrong. It just means the
0:21:00 > 0:21:05politicians who lobbied for it don't know what they are doing.Both the
0:21:05 > 0:21:11main parties are split. The country is still split right the middle. My
0:21:11 > 0:21:16hope was that someone would emerge who could unite moderates and force
0:21:16 > 0:21:21some sort of compromise.At one point it looked like Theresa May
0:21:21 > 0:21:25until the general election changed that.I am not from Britain but I
0:21:25 > 0:21:30live here. And I agree, it is not about whether you are for or
0:21:30 > 0:21:35against, it seems almost inevitable that it will be suboptimal. But as a
0:21:35 > 0:21:41polite word! I won't say on air the other words that I can think of.
0:21:41 > 0:21:46LAUGHTER You have such weak leadership. We
0:21:46 > 0:21:54haven't even mentioned Jeremy Corbyn, ...Ambiguous about his own
0:21:54 > 0:21:59attitude to Europe in the past. Exactly. Given the floundering
0:21:59 > 0:22:03leadership of the Tory party he should be up a huge amount and he is
0:22:03 > 0:22:09not. It is really reflective of this absolute vacuum of strong
0:22:09 > 0:22:17leadership, let's be clear, in the next year the future of the country
0:22:17 > 0:22:21for two generations will be determined, this departure from the
0:22:21 > 0:22:27EU, Trump, whatever he is, there are term limits, getting out of EU will
0:22:27 > 0:22:31affect the grandchildren of today's people in a way we can't imagine and
0:22:31 > 0:22:35this is being handled by people with no vision and no moral authority and
0:22:35 > 0:22:43no road map.I agree with you. It is very, very difficult to do this, one
0:22:43 > 0:22:51of the most difficult things Britain has done since 1945, without a
0:22:51 > 0:22:53functioning Prime Minister infested with authority that people of
0:22:53 > 0:22:56different views can rally behind and have some faith in, that they are
0:22:56 > 0:23:00trying to get the best possible deal.Which is why I agree that
0:23:00 > 0:23:06there needs to be a change.Agnes, do you think, that given this
0:23:06 > 0:23:10domestic circumstances of which people like Angela Merkel and Macron
0:23:10 > 0:23:14are well aware, given the destabilising effect Brexit could
0:23:14 > 0:23:18have if mishandled, when the point comes will that make them much more
0:23:18 > 0:23:25willing to offer meaningful concessions? Because it is not in
0:23:25 > 0:23:29Europe's interests of this to go pear shaped, to use a British
0:23:29 > 0:23:34expression.The EU doesn't have too much to lose, or to fear from
0:23:34 > 0:23:51Brexit.Really?I think there is one solution, reverse, you can reverse,
0:23:51 > 0:24:00guys.Not going to happen.In when you's time, I think a strong leader,
0:24:00 > 0:24:04strong British Prime Minister will say, look, or the British
0:24:04 > 0:24:09Parliament, will say, well actually...In defiance of the
0:24:09 > 0:24:19British electorate?
0:24:19 > 0:24:24If the message to voters who voted to reject a political elite is that
0:24:24 > 0:24:30that they don't regret it, they don't regret it...Let's have a
0:24:30 > 0:24:40second referendum.Make it best-of-3! On the Eurozone, you
0:24:40 > 0:24:45said, the EU, because we are in Europe, has nothing to lose. The
0:24:45 > 0:24:52Eurozone is run effectively, the debts machine runs out of London.
0:24:52 > 0:24:5875%-80% of the activity, the sobs, the foreign exchanges, the stuff
0:24:58 > 0:25:03that makes the Eurozone go round is London. Some of that of course can
0:25:03 > 0:25:11go to Frankfurt. It's can go to Paris. But the German finance
0:25:11 > 0:25:15ministry really does understand the potential risks of dislocation.
0:25:15 > 0:25:22Which is why I would hope, in the end, and Macron and Angela Merkel
0:25:22 > 0:25:27can facilitate some kind of deal. But sometimes I accept that European
0:25:27 > 0:25:36history happens by accident.What deal to Britain want? What style of
0:25:36 > 0:25:40trade agreement do they want? Like the Canada one? Like the Norwegian
0:25:40 > 0:25:48style? Make your mind. And then we can start discussing it. For
0:25:48 > 0:26:02concessions, it's not a negotiation. And nor is this! We are out of time.
0:26:02 > 0:26:05Jeffrey, Agnes, Nesrine, thank you all.
0:26:05 > 0:26:07That's it for Dateline London for this week -
0:26:07 > 0:26:09we're back next week at the same time.
0:26:09 > 0:26:12You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter @bbc shaunley.
0:26:12 > 0:26:15Or you could just record your comments and send us the cassette.
0:26:15 > 0:26:17Because apparently audio cassettes are on the way back. From all of us
0:26:17 > 0:26:23at Dateline London, goodbye.
0:26:23 > 0:26:28are on the way back. From all of us at Dateline London, goodbye.