0:00:24 > 0:00:25Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
0:00:25 > 0:00:27I'm Jane Hill.
0:00:27 > 0:00:29This week, we discuss Zimbabwe and its future,
0:00:29 > 0:00:33and look at another apparently difficult few days
0:00:33 > 0:00:36in the Brexit talks.
0:00:36 > 0:00:38Is there stalemate between Britain and the rest of the EU?
0:00:38 > 0:00:41Joining me: the Sunday Telegraph columnist Janet Daley,
0:00:41 > 0:00:45the American writer and broadcaster Jef Mcallister, the Africa
0:00:45 > 0:00:50specialist Dr Vincent Magombe and the Irish Times correspondent
0:00:50 > 0:00:52Suzanne Lynch.
0:00:52 > 0:00:59Welcome to you all.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01Thanks for being with us today.
0:01:01 > 0:01:02When is a coup not a coup?
0:01:02 > 0:01:05Zimbabwe's military put 93 year old Robert Mugabe under house
0:01:05 > 0:01:06arrest on Wednesday.
0:01:06 > 0:01:10He's been in power for 37 years but, as we go to air, tens of thousands
0:01:10 > 0:01:12of people are out in Harare demanding he steps down.
0:01:12 > 0:01:15He was briefly was seen in public on Friday at a university
0:01:15 > 0:01:17graduation ceremony but, Vincent, is it army generals
0:01:17 > 0:01:27who are currently in charge?
0:01:31 > 0:01:37You mentioned the graduation. He actually slept through its!He was
0:01:37 > 0:01:43caught napping, yes.I think what's happening is so interesting. In
0:01:43 > 0:01:46Africa, in the midst of pain and struggle, there is a lot of fun that
0:01:46 > 0:01:52goes on. I can only smile at what's going on in Zimbabwe. First of all,
0:01:52 > 0:01:58it is a coup that is not a coup. A president that is not a president.
0:01:58 > 0:02:03In a certain way, in a more serious way, I think we can comfortably say
0:02:03 > 0:02:07that Robert Mugabe's political journey is at an end. He is
0:02:07 > 0:02:17politically dead. I wish in very good health, but let him respect...
0:02:17 > 0:02:21These are African traditions. Something where we say old people
0:02:21 > 0:02:26are supposed to be the wise ones. Usually they have a lot of sense.
0:02:26 > 0:02:31Young people sit around the fire and a telephone lots of good wings.
0:02:31 > 0:02:36That's Mugabe do the right thing, let him respect his age. This is
0:02:36 > 0:02:45good for Africa because I'm in my own country, Uganda, you have 70
0:02:45 > 0:02:48something years, there's an article in the Constitution which serve the
0:02:48 > 0:02:56limit is 75. As we speak, there are protests across the country. To say,
0:02:56 > 0:03:02please don't change that article. What are these olds fellas doing for
0:03:02 > 0:03:07Africa? They were liberators, McGarvey was a liberator, he got
0:03:07 > 0:03:13Mansford of people, even if he gave it to the wrong people. -- Mugabe.
0:03:13 > 0:03:18But he liberated Zimbabwe from white rule. He has destroyed his own
0:03:18 > 0:03:21credibility trying to hang onto power until he is 100.Trying to
0:03:21 > 0:03:29create a family dynasties.Is this word suggestion that I will die the
0:03:29 > 0:03:34president and I will be given the biggest type of, those types of
0:03:34 > 0:03:39Soviet sendoff. I think he's not going to get that now. He could get
0:03:39 > 0:03:44its because they are doing it in the right way. There is this thing of
0:03:44 > 0:03:48trying to say we will respect him, he is an elder, a liberator. That's
0:03:48 > 0:03:56not you Millie 87. But he's being very stubborn.-- but he is being
0:03:56 > 0:04:01very stubborn, let's not humiliate him.
0:04:03 > 0:04:10I think today is, for me, the real mark of what might come. The people
0:04:10 > 0:04:20going to the streets. Where the pro-democracy activists? The
0:04:20 > 0:04:32Zimbabwe army is going to hand power to them? They have to fight for it.
0:04:32 > 0:04:38Veterans and others are trying to steal the space within that arch.
0:04:38 > 0:04:49What they want to do is then you have... It's going to be a battle.
0:04:49 > 0:04:56It's going to be fought for by the pro-democracy forces.The
0:04:56 > 0:05:0093-year-old himself is...He is a nonentity.They are adamant that
0:05:00 > 0:05:08they won't onto power.How much of a revolution is it if it is about
0:05:08 > 0:05:13putting in a new person he was not particularly young?That is why we
0:05:13 > 0:05:17can have comfort in the fact that the pro-democracy movement has been
0:05:17 > 0:05:22going for a while now, and if the leadership has sometimes been
0:05:22 > 0:05:28fractured between this and bass, but the people have been maturing. All
0:05:28 > 0:05:34my hope is that they will not come out and keep coming out until they
0:05:34 > 0:05:44force the army, because the army is not...Pro-democracy forces are also
0:05:44 > 0:05:49-- always united at this point. Remember the Arab Spring, there is a
0:05:49 > 0:05:53terrible lesson there. You get rid of the great old man, a sentimental
0:05:53 > 0:05:57attachment to the liberator and you end up with chaos, or maybe went up
0:05:57 > 0:06:01with democracy. We won't know for a while whether this is terrible news
0:06:01 > 0:06:07or good use.The next few days will show us, if we see the pro-democracy
0:06:07 > 0:06:13movement refuses to go off the streets. The right thing is to set
0:06:13 > 0:06:19up a transition government that includes all the groups.The Athens
0:06:19 > 0:06:23has to be democratic elections. Are they going to call them? -- the
0:06:23 > 0:06:25Athens has to be.
0:06:33 > 0:06:38This is one man now being removed. All the power structure around him
0:06:38 > 0:06:42continues. All of the intelligence, all the corruption, all of the very
0:06:42 > 0:06:46tight levers of power. It's like getting rid of Stalin to get
0:06:46 > 0:06:52barrier. You're right that the fundamental long-term direction has
0:06:52 > 0:06:55to be in favour of democracy, but the democracy movement has been
0:06:55 > 0:07:00crushed before. Not entirely crushed but we have been through this and a
0:07:00 > 0:07:03lot of people have been killed. They have to be reticent about putting
0:07:03 > 0:07:10their necks on the line. It is a coup that is not a coup. In order to
0:07:10 > 0:07:15looks legitimate inside as well as with the outside world, all the
0:07:15 > 0:07:19forces are still going to try to hold on as much as they can.The
0:07:19 > 0:07:22point of hope is that we have already been there. We had a
0:07:22 > 0:07:29transition government. It shows that even McGarvey himself at one point
0:07:29 > 0:07:32or another started realising that you can't just do it your own way.
0:07:32 > 0:07:42-- Robert Mugabe.They're in for tracing the pro-democracy
0:07:42 > 0:07:46demonstrations and manipulating them, that's the danger. You read a
0:07:46 > 0:07:51manipulating in the name of? China is a big player in this. China is
0:07:51 > 0:07:54becoming an economic superpower in the developing world. It's like
0:07:54 > 0:07:59Russia used to be during the Cold War. That was ideological, this is
0:07:59 > 0:08:04economic. It means there is a potential confrontation with the
0:08:04 > 0:08:06West briefly fluids over this region. This isn't being conducted
0:08:06 > 0:08:13in a vacuum.Also the river the other countries around, and to
0:08:13 > 0:08:21seizing that this week in held as a mediator is interesting considering
0:08:21 > 0:08:27the issues happening internally. The power struggles within the ANC, and
0:08:27 > 0:08:34simmer being such a problematic figure himself.African Union is
0:08:34 > 0:08:42just a club of the same holds... Thunder is divided and ruptured
0:08:42 > 0:08:48within its own format. We have Botswana, the president of Botswana,
0:08:48 > 0:08:53he said categorically that Mugabe go immediately. You now have very
0:08:53 > 0:08:56interesting thing because it forces from South Africa, you would have
0:08:56 > 0:09:02mainly Angolan soldiers but also sad African soldiers, we have a very
0:09:02 > 0:09:09interesting development. We have this new president who seems to be
0:09:09 > 0:09:12trying to say, look, we shouldn't move into just supports lack of
0:09:12 > 0:09:23democracy. He started attacking the Dos Santos family. He fired Dos
0:09:23 > 0:09:32Santos's daughter. I think there is no unanimity to say we just want to
0:09:32 > 0:09:43impose rule. But in Uganda, in Africa, in some way, it's the
0:09:43 > 0:09:46activists, pro-democracy movement, that will define whether anything
0:09:46 > 0:09:52goes our way or not.In terms of the next few weeks, you are clearly
0:09:52 > 0:09:58saying the pro-democracy forces have to be united here, and that we are
0:09:58 > 0:10:05in a really pivotal few days?There wasn't an issue of demonstrations, I
0:10:05 > 0:10:10was going to cover demonstrations to sort out that thing. Now it has come
0:10:10 > 0:10:12but we are all so seeing some fractures within the movement on the
0:10:12 > 0:10:24street. We see their tactics, to grab that space. Where the movements
0:10:24 > 0:10:28who demonstrated just a year ago? There were thousands. At that time
0:10:28 > 0:10:33they were facing the army, police. By the way, not scared. Let them
0:10:33 > 0:10:41come out. Let them organise themselves like the Egyptian people.
0:10:41 > 0:10:46The Egyptian thing showed is that when people come together, they can
0:10:46 > 0:10:52make a little change. Here we have so many factors. Luck is on their
0:10:52 > 0:11:01side. Mugabe is going, that was the main block. Now we have the army in
0:11:01 > 0:11:04two minds. I believe the army will want to do the right thing.
0:11:04 > 0:11:12Otherwise... It will continue facing a lot of pressure as they go on. The
0:11:12 > 0:11:17economy will continue collapsing. Facing pressure in the streets.
0:11:17 > 0:11:21Demonstrations in the streets always eventually dissipate. Unless you can
0:11:21 > 0:11:25turn it into institutional change, systematic political change and
0:11:25 > 0:11:29reform, it goes nowhere and very often ends in violence. Really
0:11:29 > 0:11:33bloodcurdling scenes, tanks in the streets. Demonstrations on the
0:11:33 > 0:11:40streets are a sign of really serious disillusion as dissatisfaction. But
0:11:40 > 0:11:43they don't in themselves...If we have a transition government
0:11:43 > 0:11:46including the opposition, it will tell us where the government, were
0:11:46 > 0:11:51this movement is going.Quickly, do we know where Grace Mugabe is? Does
0:11:51 > 0:11:59it matter?She is hiding in the toilet! And is juggling! She was the
0:11:59 > 0:12:07targets of the army officers. -- I'm just joking. We heard she might have
0:12:07 > 0:12:10gone to Namibia. It doesn't matter where she is right now. She cannot
0:12:10 > 0:12:16take power.The fact that she was the target of this not a coup means
0:12:16 > 0:12:21that it was a personal thing. It was about particular personalities, not
0:12:21 > 0:12:25about institutional change. You get rid of the person you don't like,
0:12:25 > 0:12:32but in the person you like and that's the end of that?Just like in
0:12:32 > 0:12:36Uganda, we are standing up. Some are buoyant have to do that.We will see
0:12:36 > 0:12:39if that pans out in the coming days and weeks.
0:12:39 > 0:12:40and weeks.
0:12:40 > 0:12:42The word stalemate has been heard again this week -
0:12:42 > 0:12:45not for the first time - in relation to the Brexit talks.
0:12:45 > 0:12:47Britain's Prime Minister was on a charm offensive
0:12:47 > 0:12:50at a summit in Sweden, Secretary of State David Davis was
0:12:50 > 0:12:52avuncular in interviews in Berlin - while Jean Claude Juncker
0:12:52 > 0:12:54was reminding everyone that the clock is ticking.
0:12:54 > 0:12:55Meanwhile the Chancellor delivers his budget
0:12:55 > 0:12:59to Westminster on Wednesday - will the contents of
0:12:59 > 0:13:02Philip Hammond's ministerial red box be enough to keep things on track
0:13:02 > 0:13:12and save Theresa May's premiership?
0:13:12 > 0:13:20A lot to chew over there. Is that a nervous laugh?These negotiations
0:13:20 > 0:13:24any more, this is a hostage crisis! The conditions under which the
0:13:24 > 0:13:27prisoner will be released won't be discussed until the money is counted
0:13:27 > 0:13:32on the table. You have to remember that for the EU, it's terribly
0:13:32 > 0:13:36important that this all looks as bloody as possible and as difficult
0:13:36 > 0:13:39as possible, in order to discourage anybody else who might get this
0:13:39 > 0:13:43idea, don't try this at home. They could break for little reason the
0:13:43 > 0:13:47wheel because it was a tiny failing economy, a basket case and the
0:13:47 > 0:13:50population didn't want to leave the EU. That's not the case with
0:13:50 > 0:13:55Britain. Written as the second-largest contributor to the
0:13:55 > 0:13:57budget. It's understandable that they should be worried about the
0:13:57 > 0:14:02money. They're creating now this smoke screen about, you may
0:14:02 > 0:14:06disagree, about their hard border on Ireland. Nobody wants a hard order
0:14:06 > 0:14:10with violence. The body in Britain, Northern Ireland 's, Southern
0:14:10 > 0:14:18Highlands, once a hard order with Ireland. -- nobody in. This could be
0:14:18 > 0:14:21resolved quite easily but the EU is stoking this up so that it doesn't
0:14:21 > 0:14:25look as if it is all about money. They have admitted that progress has
0:14:25 > 0:14:28been made on the business of the rights of the users and is living in
0:14:28 > 0:14:33Britain and vice versa.That seems to be the one area where there has
0:14:33 > 0:14:38been some progress.It been a good idea for Britain to save from the
0:14:38 > 0:14:41off all new user dozens living in Britain will have the same rights.
0:14:41 > 0:14:47That would have not only the right thing but it would have frankly
0:14:47 > 0:14:51wrong-footed the EU response. We couldn't have been fused of using
0:14:51 > 0:14:57them as pawns. We are where we are. -- couldn't have been accused. It is
0:14:57 > 0:15:01the money that is the issue. It is also the fact that the EU is
0:15:01 > 0:15:07determined to make this book as difficult, and with the Corporation
0:15:07 > 0:15:10of a whole cater of people within Britain who don't want to see this
0:15:10 > 0:15:17happen. As much of a sense of doom and despair as is politically
0:15:17 > 0:15:27possible. The people who write to me and communicate with me are
0:15:27 > 0:15:32self-selecting, but every time John Sergeant opens his mouth, a million
0:15:32 > 0:15:36Britons remember why they voted believe that a all right to me. --
0:15:36 > 0:15:38John Claude Junker.
0:15:41 > 0:15:47If we had a second referendum now, the vote would probably be 60-40.
0:15:47 > 0:15:54Let's not debate about that! We can debate money because we hear that in
0:15:54 > 0:15:57the coming days, Theresa May is perhaps going to talk about is, of
0:15:57 > 0:16:01course that is denied, but talk about increasing what might be on
0:16:01 > 0:16:07the table. Is it about money for you?I disagree with everything
0:16:07 > 0:16:16Janet said. The money is a blip in turn sells the size of the European
0:16:16 > 0:16:20budget, European economies. No one release has about the money.No one
0:16:20 > 0:16:32cares about the money?The Britons do. It is still not that big a deal.
0:16:32 > 0:16:38Free Europe, Europe is the most important thing. If Britain wants to
0:16:38 > 0:16:46leave, it has got it... To me, this reminds me of my wife who went to
0:16:46 > 0:16:52Catholic school and in second grade or the eight-year-old asks, can God
0:16:52 > 0:16:56make a square circle? She pondered this and pondered this and didn't
0:16:56 > 0:16:59get the right answer. The sister rupture with a ruler because she
0:16:59 > 0:17:04said, sister, there is no square circle, God can make it. God can do
0:17:04 > 0:17:08anything! I feel that's the way the Brexiteer Zaha. They believe that
0:17:08 > 0:17:15everything can be happy, that we can have the cake and eat it. -- the way
0:17:15 > 0:17:19the Brexiteer Zaha. That you can have Ireland inside the EU in a
0:17:19 > 0:17:32customs union, or you can have it not. You can't have...Can I just...
0:17:32 > 0:17:41The Irish premier has said...Let's hear from Suzanne.This is a very
0:17:41 > 0:17:47serious issue. We have got, just a recap, three issues to be resolved
0:17:47 > 0:17:54before Europe says we can move on to a new set of things. Which is the
0:17:54 > 0:17:58trade relationship between Britain and Europe. One of those issues now,
0:17:58 > 0:18:04the Irish order, is an important issue. No one wants to return to a
0:18:04 > 0:18:08hard order. What's not -- what has now emerged that Britain does he do
0:18:08 > 0:18:14have a plan to avoid that. Now Ireland has had to be anti-in the
0:18:14 > 0:18:17last few days, and really want a written commitment before they go on
0:18:17 > 0:18:21to phase too that there will be no order. They're worried that if it's
0:18:21 > 0:18:25not agreed now, it will get lost in everything else next year whether
0:18:25 > 0:18:30trade negotiations start. I can see Britain -- I can see why Britain
0:18:30 > 0:18:34want to discuss the border with the trade relationship next year.
0:18:34 > 0:18:40Islanders caught in the middle. Are we looking at a situation of an EU
0:18:40 > 0:18:44summit in four weeks which is crucial, we looking at a situation
0:18:44 > 0:18:48where Ireland will essentially veto moving onto the next stage?
0:18:48 > 0:18:51Islanders try to get Britain and Brussels happy but there are
0:18:51 > 0:18:57hundreds of officials in Dublin and Brussels working on this. On the
0:18:57 > 0:19:00second issue, to pick up again what you said, this idea of Europe
0:19:00 > 0:19:05playing hardball, of course it's going to be tough. The day Britain
0:19:05 > 0:19:08moved to leave, the head of the European Council said they have
0:19:08 > 0:19:12gone, they have left. Our job is to look after the 27 other countries
0:19:12 > 0:19:18here. Of course they're going to be tough and strive to maintain... Yes,
0:19:18 > 0:19:21they want to trade relationship to next but unfortunately I believe it
0:19:21 > 0:19:26is 37 countries versus one. A very important country with a big
0:19:26 > 0:19:30contribution to the budget but I don't big it should be any surprise
0:19:30 > 0:19:37that the 27 countries will work together.I'm curious what lies
0:19:37 > 0:19:45behind a wry smile!I've got too many things about Africa in my mind
0:19:45 > 0:19:50to be bothered about what happens in Britain! Watching people squabbling,
0:19:50 > 0:19:58not like kids, but really squabbling in a way that's... If Brexit is
0:19:58 > 0:20:04happens come up, Britain would still be living. But what I suspect is, I
0:20:04 > 0:20:10would not be surprised if Britain just crashes out without a deal. But
0:20:10 > 0:20:14you know what? Because our friends, the Brexiteer 's, as I suspect from
0:20:14 > 0:20:22a long time since that started, or types of people who don't mind
0:20:22 > 0:20:26having in Britain, even with lots of problems, Britain is not going to be
0:20:26 > 0:20:35Uganda. Many of us will see things going down, jobs, but you have
0:20:35 > 0:20:39skills, industry, everything. They are people, these Brexiteer 's, who
0:20:39 > 0:20:42don't mind that. Further, what matters is that we are running the
0:20:42 > 0:20:59show. People like me go home.No, no.Parliamentary sovereignty...But
0:20:59 > 0:21:13that question was at the heart of the referendum. You want me to go...
0:21:13 > 0:21:18African migrants were not in the question at all!Is because we are
0:21:18 > 0:21:25at the unspoken victims. I'm telling you. You point a lot about these
0:21:25 > 0:21:32Europeans, that's OK. Because for us, you cannot send us the way...
0:21:32 > 0:21:34Where are we going?Commonwealth immigration actually suffered
0:21:34 > 0:21:39because we had to let in an unlimited number of EU migrants.
0:21:39 > 0:21:45Britain wants to stop that.I'm sorry, that is true.On the
0:21:45 > 0:21:49sovereignty issue, what was really interesting this week was this
0:21:49 > 0:21:53debate that is rambling on about how much MPs are going to have over the
0:21:53 > 0:21:59shape Brexit. A lot of people were saying that they're not accepting
0:21:59 > 0:22:03the referendum result. Another way of looking at it is a deep irony
0:22:03 > 0:22:06that one of the reasons people wants to get out was to restore
0:22:06 > 0:22:12sovereignty of Parliament.The people who suddenly have got this
0:22:12 > 0:22:14absolutely mad sentimental attachment to the idea that
0:22:14 > 0:22:17Parliament should have the say, those are the people who have been
0:22:17 > 0:22:21giving it away for 40 years. Those of the people who accepted the
0:22:21 > 0:22:25committees act of 1972 which meant that European law to Presidents over
0:22:25 > 0:22:31British law. They kiss parliamentary sovereignty goodbye happily.Let's
0:22:31 > 0:22:37not rerun the referendum. We have a deadline looming, December 14-15,
0:22:37 > 0:22:43not very far away. Next week we have Philip Hammond at the budget. We
0:22:43 > 0:22:47read plenty about crisis in Theresa May's leadership, how is she going
0:22:47 > 0:22:55on? Your thoughts on the budget, what it might achieve? Where it
0:22:55 > 0:22:58takes us in terms of this overall broker debates at Theresa May's
0:22:58 > 0:23:05premiership.I don't think it takes us very far with the Brexit debate.
0:23:05 > 0:23:10Theresa May is certainly very weak, she has a very weak government. On
0:23:10 > 0:23:13the other hand, Germany has no government at all. Angela Merkel has
0:23:13 > 0:23:17not been able to form a coalition. It's conceivable that she will have
0:23:17 > 0:23:21to call elections before the end of the year. When we go on about the
0:23:21 > 0:23:25weakness of this government, we have to remember that we are quite
0:23:25 > 0:23:28spoiled in this country by stable majority parliamentary government.
0:23:28 > 0:23:33In Europe, where they have to have consensus and coalition, the whole
0:23:33 > 0:23:38thing is on a much more delicate balance. The whole chemistry of
0:23:38 > 0:23:41this, with macron, with his polyphonic ideas about a united
0:23:41 > 0:23:47Europe led by France, he is eager to displace Angela Merkel as the most
0:23:47 > 0:23:50parable leader in the EU. The power structure on the other side of this
0:23:50 > 0:23:59equation is in flux as well.In terms of Hammonds, he may not be
0:23:59 > 0:24:02Chancellor for much longer if you read a speculation. He may have a
0:24:02 > 0:24:05budget and then because of the internal politics, if there is a
0:24:05 > 0:24:11reshuffle, he may be gone. Who knows? There isn't a lot of running
0:24:11 > 0:24:14room. There's not a lot of extra money anyone can find, given
0:24:14 > 0:24:19austerity and his commitments to continuing things. There may be some
0:24:19 > 0:24:26changes aimed at young people on housing, on students. I'm sure it
0:24:26 > 0:24:30will be clever but I don't big it can be a game changer under the
0:24:30 > 0:24:35circumstances.The problem with the budget is that it is trying to save
0:24:35 > 0:24:39Theresa May. I agree with lots of the Labour politicians who were
0:24:39 > 0:24:46saying the budget should be about the people. Not about the problems.
0:24:46 > 0:24:51Which people?You don't know who the people are?The intergenerational
0:24:51 > 0:24:58war that is being stoked up is very dangerous. Politically and socially.
0:24:58 > 0:25:01It's quite mythical. Older people are not disparaging about the lack
0:25:01 > 0:25:06of property at the lack of housing for young people at all. They're
0:25:06 > 0:25:10worried about their children and grandchildren. It's a very unhealthy
0:25:10 > 0:25:15as progress is being to stoke up and intergenerational conflict.Or
0:25:15 > 0:25:20they're saying is to do the right thing. Build houses, do whatever
0:25:20 > 0:25:26infrastructure. Help the country to grow.To go back to the Germany
0:25:26 > 0:25:29issue, you write about these negotiations in Berlin but these
0:25:29 > 0:25:34happen all the time. Four years ago was the same. Although I do accept
0:25:34 > 0:25:39Angela Merkel was more we can double last election. I figure Brexiteer
0:25:39 > 0:25:43prefer her to be in the driving seat here rather than France. She is very
0:25:43 > 0:25:49pragmatic. I firmly believe that Germany really will decide how this
0:25:49 > 0:25:54goes. All the top of Michel Barnier, it will be Angela Merkel and a
0:25:54 > 0:25:58manual macron.Try this again next time if you possibly can for a lot
0:25:58 > 0:26:11more passionate debates. See you next week. Goodbye.