02/12/2017

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0:00:22 > 0:00:23Hello and welcome to Dateline London.

0:00:23 > 0:00:25I'm Shaun Ley.

0:00:25 > 0:00:28President Donald Trump is celebrating his first

0:00:28 > 0:00:31legislative triumph, after the US Senate passed tax

0:00:31 > 0:00:34cuts in the early hours of Saturday morning.

0:00:34 > 0:00:37Should he be looking over his shoulder now his former

0:00:37 > 0:00:39national security adviser has admitted lying to the FBI

0:00:39 > 0:00:41about contacts with Russia?

0:00:41 > 0:00:43We'll also discuss why Ireland's border could be a Brexit

0:00:43 > 0:00:47barrier come Monday.

0:00:47 > 0:00:49With me in the studio: The Irish writer and

0:00:49 > 0:00:50broadcaster Brian O'Connell.

0:00:50 > 0:00:52The Algerian journalist Nabila Ramdani.

0:00:52 > 0:00:55Jeffrey Kofman, who spent many years working for the US Networks

0:00:55 > 0:01:00and the UK political commentator Steve Richards.

0:01:00 > 0:01:01Welcome to you all.

0:01:01 > 0:01:04Welcome to you all.

0:01:04 > 0:01:08Robert Mueller, the special prosecutor examining alleged links

0:01:08 > 0:01:09between the Trump presidential campaign and Russia,

0:01:09 > 0:01:14has claimed an important scalp.

0:01:14 > 0:01:19Mike Flynn, who resigned early in the administration

0:01:19 > 0:01:25because he lied to the vice president about Russia has now

0:01:25 > 0:01:31admitted he lied to the FBI, too.

0:01:31 > 0:01:33The question being asked in Washington is whether his

0:01:33 > 0:01:35admission is part of a deal with Mueller that could

0:01:35 > 0:01:42take the investigation into the White House.

0:01:42 > 0:01:48Does this now smack of a plea bargain?

0:01:48 > 0:01:55Yes, absolutely. And I think we can record December one, 2017 as both

0:01:55 > 0:02:00the best of the worst day of Tom's presidency so far. He has got this

0:02:00 > 0:02:06massive tax cut passed by the Senate by a hair, and now the pressure is,

0:02:06 > 0:02:11the news is tightening around the White House. And if not him then

0:02:11 > 0:02:14certainly those close. What we see from Flint is that in this agreement

0:02:14 > 0:02:17he is pointing fingers at senior White House officials and the US

0:02:17 > 0:02:25media is right with speculation that it is Tomson-in-law., 'sand he

0:02:25 > 0:02:32stated this publicly very blue back many times is that it will be over

0:02:32 > 0:02:35by Christmas that he can be won, that is not the case.

0:02:35 > 0:02:39This is a case of,'s alternate reality catching up with him.

0:02:39 > 0:02:42In terms of the practicalities of this, how big a distraction is this?

0:02:42 > 0:02:50I think it is going to be running background theme throughout his

0:02:50 > 0:02:53entire presidency, however long it lasts. I don't think it will

0:02:53 > 0:02:56overwhelm him because he's not the type of figure to be overwhelmed by

0:02:56 > 0:03:00a single issue. He will move onto other factors. In fact, in some

0:03:00 > 0:03:03ways, though I know what you mean about the tax cut been the best day

0:03:03 > 0:03:09because he's got some legislation through, I think the implications of

0:03:09 > 0:03:15that will be just as serious as Russia. Because it is part of an

0:03:15 > 0:03:17entirely incoherent approach to the role of Government. The promised to

0:03:17 > 0:03:25be the most active in the history of US politics, spending like no other.

0:03:25 > 0:03:33More capital spending than current spending. Is introduced to cut which

0:03:33 > 0:03:36he argues will generate growth. When that doesn't happen, his whole pitch

0:03:36 > 0:03:43to the so-called left behind, I think we'll be found to be exposed

0:03:43 > 0:03:49and heavy incoherent. And the tax cut is part of that. The Russia

0:03:49 > 0:03:52story, I think, as you implied, hasn't quite got him yet. By

0:03:52 > 0:03:54implication it has but not directly. And while that remains the case it

0:03:54 > 0:04:02will be a background story rather than one which brings in throughout.

0:04:02 > 0:04:04Many of the supporters, what they expect, the establishment are doing

0:04:04 > 0:04:11their bit to try to bring him down. In the sense, it is almost factored

0:04:11 > 0:04:14out. The Trump presidency is a test of the Brazilians of American

0:04:14 > 0:04:19institutions of democracy in a way which, in our lifetime, we have

0:04:19 > 0:04:22never seen. Can the courts remain independent? Can his meddling be

0:04:22 > 0:04:27held to account? And what we're seeing is so far, yes. His attempts

0:04:27 > 0:04:30to knock Miller over were unsuccessful and now it is coming

0:04:30 > 0:04:36back at him. But on the tax cuts, it is so interesting sitting in the UK

0:04:36 > 0:04:42talking about this because we talk about what Brexit is, generational

0:04:42 > 0:04:45change which will affect your grandchildren. And probably gone in

0:04:45 > 0:04:49four or eight years. This tax cut is a generational tax cut this is going

0:04:49 > 0:04:55to affect America weather Here is born in a year, at the end of his

0:04:55 > 0:05:02first term or survives to terms, this is a pivot for the American

0:05:02 > 0:05:07economy. He claims it is middle-class. Every independent

0:05:07 > 0:05:10analysis suggest that this is a massive game for the wealthy. The

0:05:10 > 0:05:18and the working class. They get a tax cut but it is not the

0:05:18 > 0:05:19same sort of proportion on the same scale.

0:05:19 > 0:05:28In time it diminishes. So eventually it would disappear.

0:05:28 > 0:05:32In terms of what that means, he is now at least delivering. He has

0:05:32 > 0:05:35concrete evidence that he has done something. Isn't that going to be

0:05:35 > 0:05:39more important to a lot of voters than whether or not there is an

0:05:39 > 0:05:42investigation ongoing? No, I think that the latest

0:05:42 > 0:05:45controversy, I would like to think that the latest controversy will

0:05:45 > 0:05:49really be the beginning of the end for Trump. But there has been so

0:05:49 > 0:05:52many low points in his wretched presidency that it is really

0:05:52 > 0:05:56difficult to gauge the significance of it all. But I think that, you

0:05:56 > 0:05:59know, as you know, official enquiries can take a very long time

0:05:59 > 0:06:03and it actually,'s erratic behaviour and increasingly demonic behaviour

0:06:03 > 0:06:06that got him through a campaign that he didn't look likely to win in the

0:06:06 > 0:06:10first place. And I am of the opinion that societies deserve the

0:06:10 > 0:06:16politicians that they get. And Tom personifies a great nation in

0:06:16 > 0:06:20crisis. And for this reason he will be fighting tooth and nail against

0:06:20 > 0:06:23his opponents and he isn't an immensely powerful position to do

0:06:23 > 0:06:29so. And meanwhile, he's announcing next week that he is going to move

0:06:29 > 0:06:32the American Embassy to Jerusalem. So this is after the provocative

0:06:32 > 0:06:39move and so typical of disgraceful leaders to try to create red

0:06:39 > 0:06:46herrings and try to make out that all problems are in foreign policy,

0:06:46 > 0:06:48meanwhile it is a massive distraction from the huge problems

0:06:48 > 0:06:53at home. He is dealing with a hugely divided, unequal nation at the

0:06:53 > 0:06:56moment. And Americans have only themselves to blame for putting him

0:06:56 > 0:07:00in that position and indeed sustaining this state of affairs.

0:07:00 > 0:07:03I know you're Canadian by birth. But you know the United States very

0:07:03 > 0:07:11well. Do they have to accept... I think it is true. We have a deeply

0:07:11 > 0:07:16divided nation and I was just in the midwest. There is a festering sense

0:07:16 > 0:07:21of resentment and anger. There were so many people struggling with two

0:07:21 > 0:07:24jobs, to stay just above water. They are not saving anything.

0:07:24 > 0:07:28And they feel that the world is passing them by. And he spoke to

0:07:28 > 0:07:31that. And he to that. The solution to your problem not realistic. Has

0:07:31 > 0:07:38he talked about bringing call-back? It is just not realistic. We are

0:07:38 > 0:07:43about to see another wave of technology, putting truck drivers

0:07:43 > 0:07:46and taxi drivers out of work, with automation. There was a real sense

0:07:46 > 0:07:53of fear, and he speaks to that. I think his constituency, that court

0:07:53 > 0:07:57is there. Is he distracted now by the Russian

0:07:57 > 0:07:59investigation? Can he avoid being distracted by it?

0:07:59 > 0:08:02He will just move the agenda onto something else. He gets up and goes

0:08:02 > 0:08:07on twitter every morning and does this. And here's the rest of the

0:08:07 > 0:08:11world talking about some obscure right-wing group that we've never

0:08:11 > 0:08:16even heard of anyway. With the retweets of these.

0:08:16 > 0:08:19The BBC needs to look at how much coverage they give, you know, that

0:08:19 > 0:08:27sort of thing as well. I mean, he is the presidency presumably we would

0:08:27 > 0:08:28have to get impeachment. Impeachment is a political process.

0:08:28 > 0:08:35It is not going to happen. It is probably not going to happen. And

0:08:35 > 0:08:40Mueller, how long will that go on for? His first term anyway. He has,

0:08:40 > 0:08:44as you say, one not on his legislative belt so far and he's

0:08:44 > 0:08:46probably happy with that, I would have thought.

0:08:46 > 0:08:56Could he have more? Is that's their potential there, now that the

0:08:56 > 0:09:00senators have passed tax cuts? The resistance that actually this is now

0:09:00 > 0:09:02concrete achievement. Is that the catalyst for other things to be

0:09:02 > 0:09:06achieved? After a year which, in legislative terms, has been pretty

0:09:06 > 0:09:12rotten for him. That is a common challenge for most

0:09:12 > 0:09:19presidents. But it depends what you mean by other things. The tax cut is

0:09:19 > 0:09:21something that brings together quite a large part of the Republican

0:09:21 > 0:09:30party. Not least in Washington. Which has been a kind of region,

0:09:30 > 0:09:32Thatcher party beyond the humour of Reagan and Thatcher. They of course

0:09:32 > 0:09:41famously imposed spending cuts on Obama when she wanted to pass a more

0:09:41 > 0:09:46high spending Budget. And so in this area he brings together the

0:09:46 > 0:09:49Republican party. In most other areas he doesn't. So, no, I don't

0:09:49 > 0:09:56think this is going to be the beginning of the legislative

0:09:56 > 0:10:00programme of substantial reform, in which the Republican party unites

0:10:00 > 0:10:03around him. It's too disparate and contradictory

0:10:03 > 0:10:07and shallow and incoherent for that to happen.But what is happening

0:10:07 > 0:10:12just below the radar is equally significant. We are seeing a real

0:10:12 > 0:10:15push to put young, very conservative judges in state and level courts and

0:10:15 > 0:10:18we're seeing a purging of the State Department. A huge exodus of a

0:10:18 > 0:10:27career diplomats and what some are calling at crisis level.

0:10:27 > 0:10:30The wrist and even a US ambassador in South Korea at the moment.

0:10:30 > 0:10:38Absolutely. And career diplomats have been pushed out. So while it is

0:10:38 > 0:10:41true the legislative agenda may or may not move forward and he has the

0:10:41 > 0:10:47significant triumph, he has still has to reconcile the house. But

0:10:47 > 0:10:50there is this cultural shift happening in the institutions,

0:10:50 > 0:10:56exactly. And do Republicans think that they

0:10:56 > 0:10:59could run on these tax cuts? In November of next year, when we have

0:10:59 > 0:11:06the mid-term elections. They desperately needed this.

0:11:06 > 0:11:09Absolutely. What they're really running on, I think, is fear. But

0:11:09 > 0:11:19what you see is, if you stand up like a senator did. The two who have

0:11:19 > 0:11:25injected, they're not running again. If you stand up in this culture of

0:11:25 > 0:11:29polarised politics, you will be massacred on social media and by the

0:11:29 > 0:11:32conservative right and so dissent is something an option.

0:11:32 > 0:11:34You either follow, keep quiet, or leave.

0:11:34 > 0:11:36You either follow, keep quiet, or leave.

0:11:36 > 0:11:38Ireland was partitioned in 1922, but almost immediately the newly

0:11:38 > 0:11:40created Republic and the UK, of which Northern Ireland remained

0:11:40 > 0:11:42part, agreed their citizens could move freely back

0:11:42 > 0:11:46and forth across the border.

0:11:46 > 0:11:48During the 30 years of violence which bedevilled the north

0:11:48 > 0:11:51there were armed soldiers, vehicle checks and razor wire.

0:11:51 > 0:11:53These days, after two decades of peace, about the only physical

0:11:53 > 0:11:55sign you're changing countries are road signs shifting

0:11:55 > 0:11:59between miles and kilometres.

0:11:59 > 0:12:00Brexit could change that.

0:12:00 > 0:12:03By Monday, the UK has to present to EU negotiators in Brussels ideas

0:12:03 > 0:12:06for avoiding the return of border posts and checks -

0:12:06 > 0:12:09what's known as a hard border - or the divorce negotiations can't

0:12:09 > 0:12:14move on to post-Brexit trade.

0:12:14 > 0:12:24In terms of what is possible, and what can be achieved, why have we

0:12:24 > 0:12:27got to the stage where we are so close to a deadline and nobody

0:12:27 > 0:12:35really seems to be clear about what the solutions are? To the border

0:12:35 > 0:12:36problem. This is not an Irish Government

0:12:36 > 0:12:45view. The Irish Government is one of 27 EU countries. The reason we

0:12:45 > 0:12:48wrapped the stage now is because the British didn't listen at the

0:12:48 > 0:12:52beginning. If you go back to a month after the referendum campaign, I

0:12:52 > 0:12:59think it was the 28th of July 2016, index Kelly turned up in Downing

0:12:59 > 0:13:00Street. It is Theresa May's first meeting...

0:13:00 > 0:13:05Because she has not been prime Minster very long.

0:13:05 > 0:13:07First meeting with the new Prime Minister and they have lunch and

0:13:07 > 0:13:12they agree that all the nice stuff about frictionless borders and

0:13:12 > 0:13:15things have to continue as they are. The Irish then went off and went

0:13:15 > 0:13:19bundle the other 26 EU capitals and they said, this is a crucial issue

0:13:19 > 0:13:27and they explained why, and the British went off and looked at other

0:13:27 > 0:13:31stuff to do with Brexit said, that is the Irish sorted out. Of course,

0:13:31 > 0:13:38when it came to setting up the talks, there is Ireland, is one of

0:13:38 > 0:13:41the three things. That is because the Irish went around the other 26

0:13:41 > 0:13:46capitals and said we want this, this is going to be really important.

0:13:46 > 0:13:49They did their homework. They did their homework and the British kind

0:13:49 > 0:13:53of parked it. Now, there is all kinds of reasons for that, which we

0:13:53 > 0:13:56can come back to. But in terms of what is achievable, my understanding

0:13:56 > 0:14:03is that they have not got a deal yet. The deadline is, I think,

0:14:03 > 0:14:06lunchtime on Monday when Mrs may goes to meet Jean-Claude Newkirk for

0:14:06 > 0:14:14lunch. A lot of people in the UK probably

0:14:14 > 0:14:20don't grasp, you might be able to help with this, is, why is it

0:14:20 > 0:14:25possible for order to operate between Norway, which is not a

0:14:25 > 0:14:29member of the European Union, and Sweden, relatively painlessly? Or

0:14:29 > 0:14:31Switzerland, which is not a member, and France, relatively painlessly?

0:14:31 > 0:14:34But everyone says it is going to be a potential crisis between Northern

0:14:34 > 0:14:40Ireland and the Republic, one outside the EU and one in.

0:14:40 > 0:14:42The countries you mentioned have various arrangements with the single

0:14:42 > 0:14:46market or the EEA or whatever it happens to be, for which they pay.

0:14:46 > 0:14:55They signed deals and the problem was Northern Ireland and the British

0:14:55 > 0:14:59and Irish positions, is that both sides agree that this should be

0:14:59 > 0:15:02frictionless, open, happy-go-lucky border but the British are saying,

0:15:02 > 0:15:08we don't want to be in the single market or the customs union and we

0:15:08 > 0:15:16also don't want as was suggested by the Irish at one point, a dividing

0:15:16 > 0:15:20line down the Irish Sea, so the border would be there. So you can't

0:15:20 > 0:15:23actually work that Rubik 's cube out. It is never going to happen. So

0:15:23 > 0:15:32what you've got to do is, I think, William Hague...

0:15:32 > 0:15:36The former British Foreign Secretary. He was positing this. You

0:15:36 > 0:15:39go through the Good Friday Agreement and pull out all the little bits and

0:15:39 > 0:15:42take it apart, that is what European commissions are for. They've done

0:15:42 > 0:15:45this and gone through it and I think there is 142 issues...

0:15:45 > 0:15:54Within the Good Friday Agreement? Because was based on the premise

0:15:54 > 0:15:57that both sides were going to be within European Union. It goes down

0:15:57 > 0:16:03to things like animal welfare, crossing the border, things like

0:16:03 > 0:16:07ambulances crossing the border. So if you have a heart attack on the

0:16:07 > 0:16:10south and the nearest hospital is across the board on the north, and

0:16:10 > 0:16:15that kind of stuck. And you do with them one by one. And you have a sort

0:16:15 > 0:16:19of regulatory convergence. This is where the DUP start jumping up and

0:16:19 > 0:16:21down and saying, no, no, we're not going to do this.

0:16:21 > 0:16:30This is very interesting. It is fair to say I was in a broadly

0:16:30 > 0:16:34nationalised part of Northern Ireland. It is an important issue

0:16:34 > 0:16:37for politicians there. The DUP deputy leader, who is in charge in

0:16:37 > 0:16:43Westminster, the man who negotiated the deal was Theresa May's keeper in

0:16:43 > 0:16:47office, said there is no special status. There will not be a special

0:16:47 > 0:16:50status for Northern Ireland. It will be treated the same as the UK.

0:16:50 > 0:16:56Theresa May said that I think she is a woman of her word.

0:16:56 > 0:16:59How on earth are they going to reconcile? I don't know. And it is

0:16:59 > 0:17:03very interesting if you look back at the the United Kingdom on this.

0:17:03 > 0:17:06Northern Ireland came up once, when John Major Tony Blair went to speak

0:17:06 > 0:17:14there. And that was it. They generated no response, not much

0:17:14 > 0:17:17interest. That was the sole focus. Now, they are a reminder of two

0:17:17 > 0:17:22prime ministers who lived and breathed Northern Ireland politics

0:17:22 > 0:17:26and the Good Friday Agreement. They would've known about the

0:17:26 > 0:17:29significance of the multilayered complexity is. This peace agreement

0:17:29 > 0:17:31that effectively, not completely, brought an end to the armed violence

0:17:31 > 0:17:36that was taking place for decades. On the assumption of Northern

0:17:36 > 0:17:42Ireland being part of the European Union, like Southern Ireland. And

0:17:42 > 0:17:47suddenly all of those changes. And Theresa May arrives. She was Home

0:17:47 > 0:17:49Secretary, she obviously had security issues Northern Ireland but

0:17:49 > 0:17:52beyond that Northern Ireland had not been on her radar as a senior

0:17:52 > 0:17:57politician. And I think she's hugely underestimated. In fairness to David

0:17:57 > 0:18:07Davis and others,... He's the British negotiator.

0:18:07 > 0:18:09The British Brexit secretary in the United Kingdom. They are acutely

0:18:09 > 0:18:14aware of it. They were logical point in saying that before we know the

0:18:14 > 0:18:17end agreement, it is very hard to deal with the Northern Ireland

0:18:17 > 0:18:20situation because until we know the degree to which we trade is going to

0:18:20 > 0:18:24apply more widely, you can't do with this. But, as you know, there is a

0:18:24 > 0:18:31huge pressure to get some sort of sense.

0:18:31 > 0:18:35The Irish Government are not suggesting that we have to have

0:18:35 > 0:18:40everything glued to the floor before we move onto the next thing. What

0:18:40 > 0:18:45saying is, you've given us all the sort of airy fairy, yes, we all

0:18:45 > 0:18:49agree that the border has to be... The reassurances. In fact, there was

0:18:49 > 0:18:53a British paper produced last August, I think, where they talked

0:18:53 > 0:18:56about trusted traders in technology and will kind of stuff, which the EU

0:18:56 > 0:19:02Commission described as magical thinking. That was all the

0:19:02 > 0:19:07predicament has provided so far. The Irish now, they're saying give us

0:19:07 > 0:19:17something that we can hang onto, in writing, that is a guarantee.

0:19:17 > 0:19:19More concrete. It has to be concrete and credible to which they are

0:19:19 > 0:19:26using. And doesn't have to actually answer every single question. But it

0:19:26 > 0:19:32has to give us sort of idea of how this open border is going to work.

0:19:32 > 0:19:35Given how much hangs on the surely common sense says they will find a

0:19:35 > 0:19:41way round this. They're not going to allow this whole process to be

0:19:41 > 0:19:44wrecked because they can't quite agree a form of words to get them

0:19:44 > 0:19:46onto the next age. Well, I'm afraid with so many issues

0:19:46 > 0:19:54around Brexit, it effectively boils down to getting square pegs into

0:19:54 > 0:19:58round holes. Ireland's relation to the Britain has always been loaded

0:19:58 > 0:20:03with emotive issues, not least of all religion, and nationalism. But

0:20:03 > 0:20:05the massive stumbling block is a technical one. And Britain want a

0:20:05 > 0:20:10proper Brexit then of course it has to have a border. A hard border, the

0:20:10 > 0:20:15EU state. Otherwise, all the betes noires that underpin Brexit

0:20:15 > 0:20:21especially immigrants and non-British goods, will just keep

0:20:21 > 0:20:24flowing and will be able to move into the UK with no hindrance. The

0:20:24 > 0:20:30whole point of Brexit is to stop all that. The flow of people, goods and

0:20:30 > 0:20:34indeed animals and have a border between southern and... There is no

0:20:34 > 0:20:37physical border between southern and Northern Ireland that it is very

0:20:37 > 0:20:40difficult to achieve that. At the time of the attempt to

0:20:40 > 0:20:48achieve the peace agreement which became the Good Friday Agreement,

0:20:48 > 0:20:50British politicians and prime ministers could always pick up the

0:20:50 > 0:20:52phone and bring somebody in Washington and there was always a

0:20:52 > 0:20:55sense that America's interest in the fate of Ireland and what was

0:20:55 > 0:20:59happening in Northern Ireland was considerable. There were always

0:20:59 > 0:21:05politicians, Republican and Democrat, who cared more passionate

0:21:05 > 0:21:07about. Is there still that interest? No, of

0:21:07 > 0:21:15course not. We remember that early handholding at the White House with

0:21:15 > 0:21:18two reason may Donald Trump. I don't think there will be grabbing one

0:21:18 > 0:21:26another's hands after this week when Trump's retweeted those odious

0:21:26 > 0:21:30anti-Muslim videos at the Swan of which was totally fictitious.

0:21:30 > 0:21:33Theresa May, to her credit, slapped him down. He then slapped her down.

0:21:33 > 0:21:38And so it goes. My job business.

0:21:38 > 0:21:47Let me throw another cliche at you, and so he did. I think she is very

0:21:47 > 0:21:53much, she can't rely on him. She hoped some quick radio the US would

0:21:53 > 0:21:56somehow paper Rover the massive potential loss of trade with Europe.

0:21:56 > 0:22:01But, no, she can't. I must say, she clearly, her kind of glib, Brexit

0:22:01 > 0:22:11means Brexit. Now that she's caught, the devil is in the details.

0:22:11 > 0:22:13They don't use that phrase. They don't know what it means. That kind

0:22:13 > 0:22:16of glibness is coming back to bite them. There is so much really

0:22:16 > 0:22:22difficult detailed work here and Ireland, who would've thought that

0:22:22 > 0:22:24would be the one issue that could potentially trip them up.

0:22:24 > 0:22:31It stars go back to the Good Friday Agreement. Most around here remember

0:22:31 > 0:22:3420 years ago when they put the Good Friday Agreement together they have

0:22:34 > 0:22:41this thing called constructive ambiguity. Well, we'll figure it out

0:22:41 > 0:22:43afterwards, we'll get around to that.

0:22:43 > 0:22:47You can't do that with this. So up until now, although sensitive

0:22:47 > 0:22:51issues. Because you need to actually explain to people how their

0:22:51 > 0:22:58livelihoods are going to be able to continue if they run a dairy farm

0:22:58 > 0:23:01just a mile north of the border and the milk is pasteurised or turned

0:23:01 > 0:23:06into cheese or whatever it is on the south of the border, because the

0:23:06 > 0:23:09integration between, and it is not just agriculture, it is loads of

0:23:09 > 0:23:16things, along that border area, is enormous. There is a former senior

0:23:16 > 0:23:24guy who always says... The drinks maker? Yes. We says the

0:23:24 > 0:23:26milk that goes into the bottle babies comes from Northern Ireland

0:23:26 > 0:23:29and crosses the border five times for pasteurisation of this and that

0:23:29 > 0:23:36and the other before it ends up in the bottle. It goes over and back

0:23:36 > 0:23:40five times. But you have that kind of very, very integrated economy on

0:23:40 > 0:23:46both sides of the border. And creative ambiguity is not going

0:23:46 > 0:23:47to... Constructive ambiguity is not going

0:23:47 > 0:23:54to work. Reintroducing the border can bring back the division that

0:23:54 > 0:23:57defined the troubles and undo all the good progress made by the Good

0:23:57 > 0:24:04Friday Agreement. Of all this is about technical puzzles. Once that

0:24:04 > 0:24:06highlight the horrendous difficulties that underpins the

0:24:06 > 0:24:10Brexit process. After following a very simple decision made by Britain

0:24:10 > 0:24:14to leave the EU. The election is coming back to haunt

0:24:14 > 0:24:22them because the DUP... The general election issue that left

0:24:22 > 0:24:26the Tories without a majority. They are now reliant on this party in

0:24:26 > 0:24:29Northern Ireland nationalists to support them and maintain the

0:24:29 > 0:24:32Government here at Westminster. And now, Theresa May really is at their

0:24:32 > 0:24:37mercy. It is interesting that it is such an

0:24:37 > 0:24:41emblematic example of the complexity of this that on this, both sides

0:24:41 > 0:24:49agree on the end. The EU and the UK want a soft border. And yet they

0:24:49 > 0:24:53can't quite work out how. So even where there is agreement on an end,

0:24:53 > 0:24:56it is not at all clear how they reach it. Many other issues the

0:24:56 > 0:25:02risen to an agreement on the end and even if she gets through the

0:25:02 > 0:25:05December summit this crucial moment in the Premiership, because if she

0:25:05 > 0:25:07doesn't there will be a sense of crisis around her.

0:25:07 > 0:25:12So I assume that she will. Do think that would finish her off?

0:25:12 > 0:25:15Such predictions are dangerous now but I think there will be a huge

0:25:15 > 0:25:18sense of crisis if she doesn't get through to the next round of much

0:25:18 > 0:25:25more mountainous the complex talks. After December, which are thinking

0:25:25 > 0:25:30is why she's got a sense that the Brexit payment will open the door of

0:25:30 > 0:25:33sorts, assuming that something can be done Northern Ireland. If she

0:25:33 > 0:25:38doesn't there will be a huge, she can't come back from another summit

0:25:38 > 0:25:41and deliver a statement to the House of Commons saying we've made no

0:25:41 > 0:25:45progress. It is going to require a lot of

0:25:45 > 0:25:48flexibility by the EU as well. Because if they do have the sort of

0:25:48 > 0:25:52measures worth a glittery convergence and so on, the EU is

0:25:52 > 0:25:56going to have to say, well, it is not the way we run the single market

0:25:56 > 0:25:59normally but in this case we will make an exception. They will have to

0:25:59 > 0:26:07be fairly flexible on that. I understand that a certain Irish

0:26:07 > 0:26:09Stout, they also involve travelling across the border and then back

0:26:09 > 0:26:12again. Too early in the have one of those.

0:26:12 > 0:26:14Too early in the have one of those.

0:26:14 > 0:26:16That's all we have time for on Dateline this week.

0:26:16 > 0:26:19Please do join us again next week, same time same place.

0:26:19 > 0:26:23But for now thank you for watching, and goodbye.