0:00:28 > 0:00:29Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
0:00:29 > 0:00:31I'm Shaun Ley.
0:00:31 > 0:00:33Recent days have tested the proposition that in relations
0:00:33 > 0:00:35between nations it's negotiation rather than innovation
0:00:35 > 0:00:36that wins the day.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39On Friday, after Brexit talks went to the wire and beyond,
0:00:39 > 0:00:41Theresa May appeared to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44Has she improved the odds for a successful departure
0:00:44 > 0:00:46for the UK from the European Union?
0:00:46 > 0:00:48On Wednesday, President Donald Trump went the other way, declaring
0:00:48 > 0:00:51that the United States would unilaterally recognise
0:00:51 > 0:00:54Jerusalem as Israel's capital, ending 70 years of studied
0:00:54 > 0:00:58neutrality on one of the issues that has prevented a settlement
0:00:58 > 0:01:01of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
0:01:01 > 0:01:04Could breaking out of positions adopted more than a lifetime ago be
0:01:04 > 0:01:05a catalyst for change?
0:01:05 > 0:01:07Team Dateline this week are:
0:01:07 > 0:01:09Ned Temko, political commentator and former editor
0:01:09 > 0:01:12of The Jewish Chronicle.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14Agnes Poirier of Marianne, the French magazine.
0:01:14 > 0:01:16Nesrine Malik, who analyses Arab affairs.
0:01:16 > 0:01:18And Michael Goldfarb, the America journalist
0:01:18 > 0:01:24and podcaster Welcome to you all.
0:01:24 > 0:01:27In the year since he was elected US President, Donald Trump's supporters
0:01:27 > 0:01:31have explained his sometimes contradictory positions by advising,
0:01:31 > 0:01:33watch what he does, not what he says.
0:01:33 > 0:01:35Well, this week words and actions were as one.
0:01:35 > 0:01:37During the election campaign, Mr Trump said he would recognise
0:01:37 > 0:01:40Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and on Wednesday he did just that.
0:01:40 > 0:01:41On Friday, Palestinian protestors responded
0:01:41 > 0:01:44with what they called a day of rage - an appropriate description that
0:01:44 > 0:01:54captures both their anger and their impotence.
0:01:56 > 0:02:02Ned Temko, he has broken out of this position that has been established
0:02:02 > 0:02:06policy, whether Democrats or Republicans have been in the White
0:02:06 > 0:02:11House, for decades now. Could he encourage others to do the same?
0:02:11 > 0:02:18Know, in a word. I would be astonished. Words and actions where
0:02:18 > 0:02:25the same, but it is Trump musical theatre. Despite this statement, he
0:02:25 > 0:02:30also signed the six-month waiver, as did his predecessors to avoid
0:02:30 > 0:02:35actually having to move the American embassy any time soon to Jerusalem.
0:02:35 > 0:02:38His argument is they would have to establish a new building and all the
0:02:38 > 0:02:45rest of it.And the real problem, like so much in the Trump
0:02:45 > 0:02:52Administration, it has nothing to do with foreign policy. It was a
0:02:52 > 0:02:57petulant, superficial decision, ticking a box, driven by domestic,
0:02:57 > 0:03:01political considerations. It is almost an act of diplomatic arson.
0:03:01 > 0:03:06You can argue how great will the damage be? There is some reason to
0:03:06 > 0:03:12feel happy, that is the wrong word, a little bit relieved more people
0:03:12 > 0:03:16haven't died as a result of the inevitable violence that followed
0:03:16 > 0:03:22this. It is also true, if you are looking for silver linings, there
0:03:22 > 0:03:27wasn't much of a peace process to destroy any more. But here is what
0:03:27 > 0:03:33matters. In order for short-term political gain and particularly with
0:03:33 > 0:03:35evangelical voters in southern United States, who will vote next
0:03:35 > 0:03:42week on whether to elect a credibly accused paedophile to the United
0:03:42 > 0:03:49States Senate. That is the world we live in now. But he has put
0:03:49 > 0:03:55America's fingers on the political scales inside the Middle East, in a
0:03:55 > 0:04:00way, quite rightly, both parties were wary of doing. What he has
0:04:00 > 0:04:05done, he has weakened the shrinking number of credible Arab leaders who
0:04:05 > 0:04:10still wanted and believed in a two state negotiated solution. People
0:04:10 > 0:04:16like King Abdullah of Jordan, and the Palestinians. He has an bold and
0:04:16 > 0:04:25people like Hamas, Iran, arguably Isis, Al-Qaeda spin offs. So
0:04:25 > 0:04:29whatever gradually reducing prospects there were four a
0:04:29 > 0:04:34negotiated two state solution, seem much worse.Michael, that is the
0:04:34 > 0:04:40case for the prosecution, is there any case for the defence?Know. I
0:04:40 > 0:04:46don't know if there is a case for the defence. After a year we can say
0:04:46 > 0:04:55that decision-making is not... It means nothing.A decision was made.
0:04:55 > 0:05:00Is it possible that decision changes the game?If you look at the
0:05:00 > 0:05:06players, it is the same people. 50 years since the occupation began or
0:05:06 > 0:05:13the victory in the 1967 war. I don't want to get too many angry e-mails.
0:05:13 > 0:05:18It has been half a century and if you look at the names of the people
0:05:18 > 0:05:23who have been negotiating out of this, the only way you get out of it
0:05:23 > 0:05:28is to die. Arial Sharon is dead, Yasser Arafat is dead, Yitzhak Rabin
0:05:28 > 0:05:36was murdered. If you look at the roll call of names, maybe it does
0:05:36 > 0:05:40change the game. The immediate response amongst the younger
0:05:40 > 0:05:46generation of Palestinian negotiators, there is no two state
0:05:46 > 0:05:50solution, we want to be citizens, let's play the demographic game.
0:05:50 > 0:05:56That could be a game changer. Iran was mentioned. It is important to
0:05:56 > 0:06:02remember that over the last two months, there have been changes
0:06:02 > 0:06:06afoot negotiated by, not the State Department book by Jared Kushner,
0:06:06 > 0:06:12son-in-law. He went to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He has been three times, has
0:06:12 > 0:06:17built a relationship with the crowned prince. I would be very
0:06:17 > 0:06:20surprised if this hadn't been discussed in those overnight
0:06:20 > 0:06:26meetings.Just picking up on that point, you can see this as a
0:06:26 > 0:06:31concession to Israel's position, but others have suggested that it is not
0:06:31 > 0:06:37so much as a punishment to Mohammed Bass, the Palestinian leader,
0:06:37 > 0:06:42because he went to Riyadh and he was given instructions by the Saudi
0:06:42 > 0:06:47Arabian government, get this thing going. He effectively said to Trump,
0:06:47 > 0:06:53not on these terms. Is it possible to see it this way?Less in terms of
0:06:53 > 0:06:59a particular interest and more in terms of the overlapping golf powers
0:06:59 > 0:07:04in Israel, definitely. What has been really clear is the shifting
0:07:04 > 0:07:09calculus of the Middle East in the Arab world. When the last Gaza
0:07:09 > 0:07:14assault happened, it was outraged. Both on the government side and also
0:07:14 > 0:07:22on the street. It is very different now. What has happened is two fold.
0:07:22 > 0:07:26Interests have begun to overlap with Israel in terms of Saudi Arabia and
0:07:26 > 0:07:31the National Arabian Emirates who are aligned because of the
0:07:31 > 0:07:34emboldening of Iran and the Trump administration and Jared Kushner
0:07:34 > 0:07:39played that angle very well. The second thing is, the Arab street, I
0:07:39 > 0:07:46hate that term, but it is inept after the Arab Spring because you
0:07:46 > 0:07:52have three states that have been taken out of the equation, Yemen,
0:07:52 > 0:07:56Libya and Syria. The remaining states have become so paralysed by
0:07:56 > 0:08:03post Arab Spring political status... Places like Egypt?Yes, people would
0:08:03 > 0:08:09come out onto the street, they were corralled the Arab league members.
0:08:09 > 0:08:14Now, the Palestinian cause has become less useful to Arab leaders,
0:08:14 > 0:08:18who would use it as a valve to release tension and stress and make
0:08:18 > 0:08:23the right noises. The second thing is, nobody wants people on the
0:08:23 > 0:08:31street any more, it is too risky, a tinderbox.Agnes, we had President
0:08:31 > 0:08:34Macron saying it isn't helpful, which is a bit of an understatement,
0:08:34 > 0:08:41but it gets to the point. Everybody seems to have said it isn't helpful,
0:08:41 > 0:08:45yet President Trump has done it. What happens next?Can I be the
0:08:45 > 0:08:49devil 's advocate for one minute. Because, the lines are shifting in
0:08:49 > 0:08:57that region. Imagine for 90 seconds it is a plan to restart the peace
0:08:57 > 0:09:04talks, which are dead, as you said. And to bring Israel into some
0:09:04 > 0:09:10concessions. Now, Israel and Saudi Arabia...Are almost on the same
0:09:10 > 0:09:19page, yes.Trump is pro-Saudi Arabia, anti-Israel and it creates a
0:09:19 > 0:09:32new thing. It adds pressure on Abass to do something. I don't believe it
0:09:32 > 0:09:37is a plan to restart the peace talks! What it shows, because
0:09:37 > 0:09:43Jerusalem is so many different things to so many different people.
0:09:43 > 0:09:46It is a symbol and it should remain a symbol rather than become a
0:09:46 > 0:09:59concrete territory that you start dividing. Again, it is the lack of,
0:09:59 > 0:10:04a complete ignorance of history from Trump. Jerusalem is the capital city
0:10:04 > 0:10:11of the world's imagination, it is imaginary. It is where Cain killed
0:10:11 > 0:10:21Abel. Where Abraham almost killed his son. You should stay away.
0:10:21 > 0:10:30Jerusalem is their city anyway.If you look the kind of threads of
0:10:30 > 0:10:35reassurance, one of the great things and Michael is right, we have got to
0:10:35 > 0:10:41get used to a new approach to decision-making, but even in Trump's
0:10:41 > 0:10:45statements, there was this kind of post modern moment after he had
0:10:45 > 0:10:50said, I have given everything to the Israelis. In which he says, I will
0:10:50 > 0:10:55not prejudge, even the kind of boundaries and sovereignties in
0:10:55 > 0:11:00Jerusalem. He knows.Perhaps Agnes is right, even if she doesn't
0:11:00 > 0:11:04believe it has health, this is a clever ruse to get the Israelis
0:11:04 > 0:11:18talking again.Stop!I am trying. There is no cleverness involved.
0:11:18 > 0:11:26Even if it is a happy accident?This was a pledge made, not just to the
0:11:26 > 0:11:32evangelicals, but the people who bankrolled him, the hard right
0:11:32 > 0:11:37inside the American Jewish community which is extremely active. It is the
0:11:37 > 0:11:42minority. But because it is a very active minority it wags the dog a
0:11:42 > 0:11:47bit. I don't think there is any cleverness, except in the typical
0:11:47 > 0:11:52way as Ned pointed out at the beginning. It doesn't change the
0:11:52 > 0:11:56calculus much. He didn't say and we are moving the embassy any time
0:11:56 > 0:12:04soon.One other thing to pick even though there is this potential
0:12:04 > 0:12:13communality between the Gulf states, moderate Sunni regimes and Israel
0:12:13 > 0:12:19because of Iran and because of Hezbollah and the kind of shifting
0:12:19 > 0:12:24sands and region, for political cover, and for that to be made
0:12:24 > 0:12:32overt, this complicates that relationship. It doesn't ease it.
0:12:32 > 0:12:39The common interests are true, you are right, but even if you are the
0:12:39 > 0:12:43brightest, new Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia, you need to be cognisant of
0:12:43 > 0:12:49the limits of what you can say or do against the background.I think
0:12:49 > 0:12:55those limits are shifting.Have they shifted sufficiently?I think we are
0:12:55 > 0:13:00in the process of seeing something extraordinary in the Middle East
0:13:00 > 0:13:07which is no longer a red line issue. Some people would say some of the
0:13:07 > 0:13:11Arab governments have paid lip service to it anyway.Yes, you have
0:13:11 > 0:13:22diplomatic representation. In Israel and Jordan. There is flights between
0:13:22 > 0:13:29these places every day. Nobody is under any illusions. I would like to
0:13:29 > 0:13:33pick up on one thing Michael said that this doesn't change the
0:13:33 > 0:13:39calculus. I think Trump is beginning to do some real damage here. I think
0:13:39 > 0:13:45people make this understandable distinction, under Obama, things
0:13:45 > 0:13:50look a certain way but underneath it all, bad things are happening. All
0:13:50 > 0:13:55Trump is doing is removing the mask and showing things as they are. But
0:13:55 > 0:13:59there is some merit, some benefit to at least the appearance of
0:13:59 > 0:14:02symbolism, the respectful symbolism and the respect for appearances. I
0:14:02 > 0:14:10think Trump with the Muslim ban and a Jewish recognition, he needs to
0:14:10 > 0:14:14talk to his base and say, see all these buttons we weren't allowed to
0:14:14 > 0:14:20push, I am going to press every single one of them.I think you are
0:14:20 > 0:14:25right, but different example because where Trump is hurting, is next week
0:14:25 > 0:14:28where there will be further discussions on peace in Syria,
0:14:28 > 0:14:38right! Where is the united states of America, in less than a year? He was
0:14:38 > 0:14:44only sworn in on January the 20th. The idea the United States is so
0:14:44 > 0:14:52pulled back from the conflict.From the world.I am OK with the US being
0:14:52 > 0:15:01removed, but I am not OK with is during this has put its finger on
0:15:01 > 0:15:06the scales in the Middle East and emboldened these calculations in the
0:15:06 > 0:15:18Gulf states.Yesterday at the UN, a few European countries came up with
0:15:18 > 0:15:26probably another good intention, but you know, to sort of lead on future
0:15:26 > 0:15:32restarting of peace talks.The leadership role is up for grabs.The
0:15:32 > 0:15:41final irony is, we were saying, what did he get in return? This is a guy
0:15:41 > 0:15:48who had a book ghostwritten for him called The Art Of The Deal. Both
0:15:48 > 0:15:56here and perhaps even more brazenly on the withdrawal from the Pacific
0:15:56 > 0:16:00trade partnership, he withdrew America from the game in return for
0:16:00 > 0:16:07nothing. It is puzzling.We believe that puzzle hanging in the air for
0:16:07 > 0:16:09another week.
0:16:09 > 0:16:12As we discussed here a week ago, it was a divided island rather
0:16:12 > 0:16:16than a divided city which could have scuppered Theresa May's attempts
0:16:16 > 0:16:19to get other European Union leaders to start talking about the terms
0:16:19 > 0:16:22on which the EU will trade with the UK after it
0:16:22 > 0:16:23leaves 15 months from now.
0:16:23 > 0:16:25On Tuesday, the Democratic Unionists, from Northern Ireland,
0:16:25 > 0:16:27on whose ten MPs the Conservative Government depends
0:16:27 > 0:16:28for its survival, objected.
0:16:28 > 0:16:31It took until breakfast time on Friday for the British Prime
0:16:31 > 0:16:33Minister to provide the reassurances that allowed the DUP
0:16:33 > 0:16:38to withdraw its objection - at least for now.
0:16:38 > 0:16:42Agnes, is there a sense in Brussels, do you think, it is good to get a
0:16:42 > 0:16:48deal with Theresa May because if they don't, we might end up dealing
0:16:48 > 0:16:54with a different British Prime Minister, one who is considerably
0:16:54 > 0:17:04less willing to do a deal?It is good to do a deal, I will rejoice,
0:17:04 > 0:17:11as the Sun newspaper said this morning. The Daily Telegraph, which
0:17:11 > 0:17:19is also a Brexit newspaper, says it is capitulation.Another person said
0:17:19 > 0:17:26it is fudge.On the Irish border, definitely fudge. If it is victory
0:17:26 > 0:17:31for Theresa May, I wouldn't want to see what defeat looks like. Finally
0:17:31 > 0:17:38we have an agreement to go further. It took 18 months. That was the easy
0:17:38 > 0:17:47bit. OK. There is less than a year, I repeat, less than a year to
0:17:47 > 0:17:50negotiate the transitional arrangement and to agree on a
0:17:50 > 0:17:54framework for the future relationship. Because then you need
0:17:54 > 0:18:01a few months of ratification. October, we need an agreement.
0:18:01 > 0:18:09Brexit is happening. Theresa May has a few weeks over Christmas to
0:18:09 > 0:18:16actually come to a position and the Tory party and the Cabinet is split
0:18:16 > 0:18:23down the middle. You have one side, they want access to the single
0:18:23 > 0:18:30market, but no free movement. You have the other side, the loonie
0:18:30 > 0:18:36Brexiteers.As you would characterise them, they wouldn't
0:18:36 > 0:18:41characterise themselves like that. Of course not. They want a Canada
0:18:41 > 0:18:50style plus agreement. That is to say, free trade agreement. The
0:18:50 > 0:18:54problem is, when one solution, the Norway style agreement, you can have
0:18:54 > 0:19:07no border, no hard Irish border. But with the hard Brexit solution, you
0:19:07 > 0:19:13need a border in Northern Ireland. We have parked a deal for the other
0:19:13 > 0:19:18day. -- for another day. Even if there was a bit of drama on the way,
0:19:18 > 0:19:24it is a good sign, isn't it? A willingness on both sides to get
0:19:24 > 0:19:29something. No side wants no deal?I believe you cannot fast forward
0:19:29 > 0:19:35reality. But when reality arrives, you have to deal with it. There has
0:19:35 > 0:19:43been this extraordinary fantasy. One of the things Britons, I am a
0:19:43 > 0:19:46British citizen now, they have to realise the information they have
0:19:46 > 0:19:52been given for decades, the reality of the EU and Britain's relationship
0:19:52 > 0:19:57inside it has been filtered through some severe propaganda machines in
0:19:57 > 0:20:00the daily press. Every once and while there is a reality because
0:20:00 > 0:20:06they negotiating. It took them nine months, but they could have agreed
0:20:06 > 0:20:15that the week they walked in. We could be discussing the transitional
0:20:15 > 0:20:18arrangements, 58 papers and dealing with those relationships. That is
0:20:18 > 0:20:24done. What I think has happened this week. Reality has hit. The
0:20:24 > 0:20:29inevitability of a significant sum of money to cover commitments made
0:20:29 > 0:20:35through our current membership has been agreed. Yet, still you have the
0:20:35 > 0:20:40two guys vying to replace Theresa May at some point, Boris Johnson and
0:20:40 > 0:20:49Michael Gove, two ex-journalist, one used to be irregular on this panel,
0:20:49 > 0:20:52giving all kinds of confusing noise. Boris Johnson says we can get back
0:20:52 > 0:20:59the and get control of our borders. You are not in the EU, you are not
0:20:59 > 0:21:04in Schengen. What are you talking about, you are the Foreign
0:21:04 > 0:21:10Secretary.It is fair to say if you belong to any organisation, Nato or
0:21:10 > 0:21:15the EU, you have pooled sovereignty. We are saying we want to take back.
0:21:15 > 0:21:24You can go to the city and to any banker and say, we are not governed
0:21:24 > 0:21:28by any treaties that governs how you behave, that is why they get away
0:21:28 > 0:21:33with murder in London, and you have these expensive restaurants I cannot
0:21:33 > 0:21:39afford to eat in.You won't be able to get a cheap meal in Paris if
0:21:39 > 0:21:44President Macron has his way because he wants the bankers there. There
0:21:44 > 0:21:49has been little sign of this on the ground so far, this rush out of the
0:21:49 > 0:21:56EU by financial services.Nurses and doctors are going to leave.
0:21:56 > 0:22:03Financial services?Under the Canada agreements, it will not cover us.
0:22:03 > 0:22:09They won't be able to trade in euros. If Britain wants to get out
0:22:09 > 0:22:14of it with its head up...You are saying there could be a scenario
0:22:14 > 0:22:18where the EU would not permit trading in euros in the City of
0:22:18 > 0:22:23London as a kind of spite to Britain because it is leaving?No, as a
0:22:23 > 0:22:30matter of fact. It is part of the negotiation. Britain wants to go.
0:22:30 > 0:22:38The problem is, Brexiteers want their cake and to eat it. They want
0:22:38 > 0:22:49something that doesn't exist. They are riddled with contradictions and
0:22:49 > 0:22:56demands, they live in fairyland. Mutually exclusive demands.I feel
0:22:56 > 0:23:03sorry for Theresa May because if she had come away and said, what the EU
0:23:03 > 0:23:08is proposing is ludicrous and I'm going to walk away, that would have
0:23:08 > 0:23:12been a disaster. If she had agreed to what our reasonable demands, and
0:23:12 > 0:23:18the only type of Brexit the EU can get, which is ensure European
0:23:18 > 0:23:23citizens and their families, 3 million of them, their rights are
0:23:23 > 0:23:28met and access in work and stuff, then she is accused of capitulation.
0:23:28 > 0:23:35And the problem is, and this is where Michael Gove and Boris Johnson
0:23:35 > 0:23:39are mendacious creeps, there are people who are angry, foaming at the
0:23:39 > 0:23:46mouth. If you have heard people over the past 24 hours, absolutely livid
0:23:46 > 0:23:50at this agreement, talking about the EU as if it was their next-door
0:23:50 > 0:23:58neighbour who had done a land grab. Michael has been here a long time.
0:23:58 > 0:24:02You reported on Northern Ireland in the 90s, so you know the UK
0:24:02 > 0:24:08policies. To be fair to Mr Gove and Mr Johnson, they are the present-day
0:24:08 > 0:24:13generation of something that started 30 years ago.It has destroyed
0:24:13 > 0:24:21successive Tory prime ministers in government.To me, I can remember
0:24:21 > 0:24:26the Maastricht negotiations and these 4am runs by John Major. What
0:24:26 > 0:24:30did he do? He Britain out of the euro and Britain out of Schengen.
0:24:30 > 0:24:40You would have thought he would be considered a great lion.Two
0:24:40 > 0:24:50giveaways this last week, one, this splendidly, ridiculously, honest
0:24:50 > 0:24:53David Davis, acknowledges to the committee, they haven't done the
0:24:53 > 0:24:57work to assess the potential impact on the British economy of these
0:24:57 > 0:25:03various options of Brexit. That is strange enough, you wonder what they
0:25:03 > 0:25:07have been doing for the last ten months. But even more bizarrely, the
0:25:07 > 0:25:15Cabinet is yet to have a discussion on what Britain wants Brexit to be.
0:25:15 > 0:25:21They can't agree, it will be civil war.You know why David Davis can
0:25:21 > 0:25:27say he doesn't believe in it, public opinion, if it goes wrong, it won't
0:25:27 > 0:25:34be his fault, it will be remain as false, the EU's fault.I think it is
0:25:34 > 0:25:43the French's faults.I get e-mails every day saying France is there.We
0:25:43 > 0:25:48should move it out from Britain, Britain, Britain and get the
0:25:48 > 0:25:57framework wider. The German head of the social Democratic party said
0:25:57 > 0:26:01yes, it is time for France and Germany to work together. If you
0:26:01 > 0:26:05want to move the project forward, it'll be easier without Britain and
0:26:05 > 0:26:09they will be happy to see the back of us.That is where we came in, the
0:26:09 > 0:26:12whole point was we were going to prevent Germany and France doing
0:26:12 > 0:26:16deal.How is that working out for you.
0:26:16 > 0:26:18That's all we have time for this week.
0:26:18 > 0:26:21Do join us again next week same time, same place.
0:26:21 > 0:26:28But for now thank you for watching and goodbye.