0:00:23 > 0:00:27Hello and a very warm welcome to Dateline London, I'm Jane Hill.
0:00:27 > 0:00:31This week we reflect on some movement, finally,
0:00:31 > 0:00:34in the Brexit talks and ask whether the election
0:00:34 > 0:00:41of a Democrat in Alabama really is a blow to Donald Trump.
0:00:41 > 0:00:43My guests this week, the American writer Stephanie Baker
0:00:43 > 0:00:46from Bloomberg Markets, the British political commentator
0:00:46 > 0:00:47Yasmin Alibhai- Brown, Suzanne Lynch from
0:00:47 > 0:00:55the Irish Times and Thomas Kielinger from Germany's Die
0:00:55 > 0:01:00Welcome to you all.
0:01:00 > 0:01:02We've seen the end of the beginning!
0:01:02 > 0:01:04It was confirmed this week that the Brexit talks
0:01:04 > 0:01:07between Britain and the EU can finally move to the second phase.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09What a week for Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May -
0:01:09 > 0:01:12losing a parliamentary vote in London, but getting
0:01:12 > 0:01:16a round of applause from leading EU figures in Brussels.
0:01:16 > 0:01:19Though by Friday Jean Claude Juncker and Angela Merkel were among those
0:01:19 > 0:01:21pointing out that phase two of the negotiations will be much
0:01:21 > 0:01:24harder than phase one.
0:01:24 > 0:01:27Talks move in January to discussion of the transition period.
0:01:27 > 0:01:36Yasmin, the PM more than soldiers on...
0:01:37 > 0:01:40To raise a soldier 's honour.You have to add my hurt when you think
0:01:40 > 0:01:48she is down and out, somehow she brings out something in her. --
0:01:48 > 0:01:59admire her. She is also... I can't imagine what it feels like to be in
0:01:59 > 0:02:04her position. She is battling on many fronts within her own party all
0:02:04 > 0:02:11these issues. I think we have to admire that she didn't collapse into
0:02:11 > 0:02:16a heap and stop crying. They applauded her strength. The
0:02:16 > 0:02:20Europeans have been so civilised, I have to say, through all of this.
0:02:20 > 0:02:24They are a very civilised bunch. I don't think we are very civilised
0:02:24 > 0:02:30when we are talking about them. Theresa May has been, which is why
0:02:30 > 0:02:34she got a round of applause. Jean-Claude Juncker says she was
0:02:34 > 0:02:40polite and friendly.She started that in Florence and that new tone
0:02:40 > 0:02:47with her speech. The madness of this plays was not getting us anywhere.
0:02:47 > 0:02:56She did say, "We want to be friends and good for Europe." She comes to
0:02:56 > 0:02:59this mad house that is the Conservative Party and she has do
0:02:59 > 0:03:04negotiate quite a lot. What is to come is so difficult. God help her
0:03:04 > 0:03:12and us.There is a very important cabinet meeting and that goes to the
0:03:12 > 0:03:23heart of what she has two address.
0:03:23 > 0:03:27Britain is too big a country to fail. This is a defining moment in
0:03:27 > 0:03:33the own history and we need to come together. The can't be brutal and
0:03:33 > 0:03:38bloody minded about Britain. There is a reason for Europe to be
0:03:38 > 0:03:42civilised because their own house is not in order. There are certain
0:03:42 > 0:03:47aspects of the summit meeting in Brussels which were not reported as
0:03:47 > 0:03:52much because everyone was focused on Brexit. There are huge problems
0:03:52 > 0:03:58waiting with the migration issue come the EU is by no means a hard on
0:03:58 > 0:04:02fast currency to sustain itself. They need new economic balls to make
0:04:02 > 0:04:07sure the currency survives and there are plans that the French have put
0:04:07 > 0:04:14forward of a harmonisation in Europe which the Germans are dead set
0:04:14 > 0:04:20against. Germany, there is no reason for Angela Merkel to be civilised
0:04:20 > 0:04:25because she has no government at the moment.None of this has been
0:04:25 > 0:04:33reported in the UK.It looks pretty bleak because the total division of
0:04:33 > 0:04:36opinion inside Germany is such that nobody seems to agree on anything
0:04:36 > 0:04:42with anybody. I wonder why in western democracy, the outcome of
0:04:42 > 0:04:51elections are murky and indecisive. The voters don't trust politicians
0:04:51 > 0:04:55enough to give any party a clear majority to rule the country. That
0:04:55 > 0:05:04is at the heart of the problem.I agree. This idea of Europe being
0:05:04 > 0:05:10civilised but Europe is quite divided both on Brexit, where there
0:05:10 > 0:05:17are very different views, but within its own entity. Migration, there was
0:05:17 > 0:05:23a huge debate about that on Thursday night in Brussels. Other talks about
0:05:23 > 0:05:28eurozone governance but tax. Countries like Ireland, the
0:05:28 > 0:05:31Netherlands, Luxembourg, they are very worried about harms the
0:05:31 > 0:05:39taxation. There is a real blow and the loss of Britain as a huge member
0:05:39 > 0:05:43of the EU will have more subtle implications in years to come not
0:05:43 > 0:05:51least with the idea of trade and free market. Britain was always good
0:05:51 > 0:06:00up to the French. The implications there of Britain leaving are more
0:06:00 > 0:06:04nebulous but they will be felt for years to come.That is a good thing
0:06:04 > 0:06:09for Europe because we have not been a good member of the EU. We have
0:06:09 > 0:06:19never committed to this relationship and the low tax and...Is what
0:06:19 > 0:06:24specifics?We have always had this argument. We don't want to be part
0:06:24 > 0:06:33of this. The neoliberal model is vast and I think the low tax economy
0:06:33 > 0:06:39like the one you are talking about, they have to rethink.This goes to
0:06:39 > 0:06:46the heart of it. It will probably not change but I wouldn't agree with
0:06:46 > 0:06:51that entirely. Britain may have played the role of being an outsider
0:06:51 > 0:06:55but officials in Brussels were very clever in making a lot of the rules.
0:06:55 > 0:07:00Also the other irony of Brexit was Britain had the best of both worlds.
0:07:00 > 0:07:05It had an opt out from a lot of justice legislation. It was always
0:07:05 > 0:07:16half in. There was quite a good deal, many people think.As time
0:07:16 > 0:07:23went on, more people in this country felt European. There was an emotion
0:07:23 > 0:07:30involved that we feel has now been severed. Because they wanted it all,
0:07:30 > 0:07:37I still feel the EU action may want to take on the tax paid by the
0:07:37 > 0:07:46Internet giants is a good thing. It is a very good thing.A lot of
0:07:46 > 0:08:07people don't believe that. It is not simple. Defence is another one. A
0:08:07 > 0:08:15number of countries in the EU are not members of Nato.In the
0:08:15 > 0:08:19civilised language, a subtle attempt to strengthen her hand in the own
0:08:19 > 0:08:24country to make her look more impressive than some are saying. The
0:08:24 > 0:08:32middle round view will gain ascendancy in the cabinet. It is a
0:08:32 > 0:08:42subtle way to make sure not the mad crowd will win the day in Britain.
0:08:42 > 0:08:45You have some grumbling saying Margaret Thatcher never got abroad
0:08:45 > 0:08:49when she won the rebate. Maybe she has given up too much and she should
0:08:49 > 0:08:54be playing hard ball a bit more. I think whatever deal she gets out of
0:08:54 > 0:08:58the EU would be a reflection of where the EU is going. We need to
0:08:58 > 0:09:06think about that. You saw some more positive statements coming out of
0:09:06 > 0:09:11the continent. The Belgian Prime Minister saying he thought Canada
0:09:11 > 0:09:17plus should be the cornerstone of any future negotiations with the UK.
0:09:17 > 0:09:22It is in keeping with what David Davis has said. The majority of what
0:09:22 > 0:09:26the Cabinet supports. Many people thought they came dead deer
0:09:26 > 0:09:33unrealistic and a fantasy. I think how Europe handles this will be a
0:09:33 > 0:09:42real reflection of where it is going.David Davis and his ramblings
0:09:42 > 0:09:46on what was decided by Mrs May was a statement of intent. They have been
0:09:46 > 0:09:56very tough. Things will be as they are until 2019. The transition
0:09:56 > 0:10:02period, more or less everything stays the same. We are playing them.
0:10:02 > 0:10:09Wet look at the transition period is interesting. If we are looking at a
0:10:09 > 0:10:12two-year transition period, things are broadly the same for very many
0:10:12 > 0:10:18years to come. We are still part of the ECJ, the trade deal is going to
0:10:18 > 0:10:27be similar.You have been a member of the EU for 43 years so what is
0:10:27 > 0:10:32another five years?By the time we get to the end point, who knows? Do
0:10:32 > 0:10:37any of us know what the EU was going to look like by the time we reach
0:10:37 > 0:10:43that point?They have used the time to become aware how terrible it
0:10:43 > 0:10:47would be to lose Britain. You have to come up with an accommodating
0:10:47 > 0:10:51deal at the end of the day because Britain is too big to fail in the
0:10:51 > 0:10:58eyes of Europe. They have to make extra effort to accommodate whatever
0:10:58 > 0:11:04the discussion will throw up in Britain.I think we have a major
0:11:04 > 0:11:08paradox now approaching on the tracks which is today, Philip
0:11:08 > 0:11:14Hammond in China was sick you wanted a deal that would replicate status
0:11:14 > 0:11:20quo. That is essentially what they are going to want. The Northern
0:11:20 > 0:11:27Ireland issue epitomised this by saying there won't be aboard in
0:11:27 > 0:11:29Northern Ireland and Ireland. Northern Ireland will stay in the
0:11:29 > 0:11:33customs union and singles market and that has implications for the rest
0:11:33 > 0:11:39of UK. We are not in the single market but essentially we are. Will
0:11:39 > 0:11:44the EU allow that? I don't think they will if they don't allow free
0:11:44 > 0:11:55movement.I am saying to you that the Europeans have said you cannot
0:11:55 > 0:11:59do any trade deal independently until after this period. Canada, it
0:11:59 > 0:12:14took them eight years.There waiting for Britain.It is going to be very
0:12:14 > 0:12:18difficult. Theresa May has been able to forge a number of issues with
0:12:18 > 0:12:22this preliminary agreement. You can't fudge things in trade talks.
0:12:22 > 0:12:28Language has to be specific. The language in Northern Ireland can
0:12:28 > 0:12:32mean many things to many people. She will have a tough ride and this will
0:12:32 > 0:12:42not be easy. Canada plus plus will be difficult negotiations.
0:12:42 > 0:12:44Particularly over financial services which is incredibly important to the
0:12:44 > 0:12:58British economy and you can see the continent making offers to Paris.
0:12:58 > 0:13:02Nevertheless, there is a sense of community in Europe. A sense of
0:13:02 > 0:13:06growing awareness that we have to be on the positive and try to see if
0:13:06 > 0:13:12their will is some way of solving this conundrum. It is a cruel
0:13:12 > 0:13:18introduction of British policies which are mind-boggling.Powerful
0:13:18 > 0:13:22people in the Tory party and some Labour, for whom it is never going
0:13:22 > 0:13:27to be good enough. It is never going to be enough.That is what Theresa
0:13:27 > 0:13:31May has to navigate in the coming weeks and we will see what emerges
0:13:31 > 0:13:34from the Cabinet meeting this week.
0:13:34 > 0:13:36In the US, the first Democrat has been elected Senator
0:13:36 > 0:13:39for Alabama in 20 years.
0:13:39 > 0:13:42Doug Jones beat Roy Moore, even though the Republican had been
0:13:42 > 0:13:44endorsed by President Trump.
0:13:44 > 0:13:48Did Moore lose because of the allegations of sexual
0:13:48 > 0:13:50harrassment against him, or does the vote suggest wider
0:13:50 > 0:13:51problems for the administration?
0:13:51 > 0:13:59The Republicans now have just 51 out of the 100 seats in the Senate.
0:13:59 > 0:14:07Stephanie how significant was the Alabama vote?
0:14:07 > 0:14:13It was very significant for a number of reasons. Short-term, it makes it
0:14:13 > 0:14:16more difficult for Donald Trump to get his agenda through Congress.
0:14:16 > 0:14:25They only have one vote and can lose in the Senate. Republicans have
0:14:25 > 0:14:30opposed him on a number of issues. They will get the tax bill through
0:14:30 > 0:14:35because Doug Jones will not be sworn in and they will vote on it next
0:14:35 > 0:14:41week. He will be sworn in after. Welfare infrastructure, spending,
0:14:41 > 0:14:45judicial appointments, there is the divisions in the Republican Party
0:14:45 > 0:14:52that great and the possibility of swing votes will be much greater.
0:14:52 > 0:14:56Long-term, some in the Republican party said this was a special
0:14:56 > 0:15:02election. Roy Moore is accused paedophile with some extreme views
0:15:02 > 0:15:06on a number of issues from the US constitution to and religion. You
0:15:06 > 0:15:15can't predict a Democratic sweep nationwide in the November midterms.
0:15:15 > 0:15:18However, the Democrats are very energised and see a road map from
0:15:18 > 0:15:24their victories in pigeon and Alabama. Now you have an increasing
0:15:24 > 0:15:28realisation amongst the Democratic party that they have spent too much
0:15:28 > 0:15:32money on advertising and not enough on voter turnout. That is how they
0:15:32 > 0:15:40were able to secure Doug Jones' victory.It was a strong
0:15:40 > 0:15:51African-American turnout.30% turnout of black voters which was
0:15:51 > 0:15:54higher under Barack Obama. If they can replicate that in other races,
0:15:54 > 0:16:01they have a Pabst of victory. What is the future of Steve Bannon? He
0:16:01 > 0:16:08has been waging war on the Republican Party. A huge supporter
0:16:08 > 0:16:14and persuaded Donald Trump to back him. Can the Republican party cut
0:16:14 > 0:16:21him off or will he be allowed to continue to field these toxic
0:16:21 > 0:16:25candidates in Republican primaries that end up in the election not able
0:16:25 > 0:16:37to win and not able to swing -- secure the votes from swing voters.
0:16:37 > 0:16:48Do they nuclei is the war or does he still get the upper vote.Suzanne,
0:16:48 > 0:16:55what was your view?This could be a turning point for Donald Trump. If
0:16:55 > 0:17:02you look at the figures, suburban districts that voted for Donald
0:17:02 > 0:17:08Trump in 2016 flipped and voted for a Doug Jones. There was also a very
0:17:08 > 0:17:14potent election in pigeon last month. Same thing happened. It was a
0:17:14 > 0:17:27strong African-American vote. The idea of Democrats winning an
0:17:27 > 0:17:31election in Alabama at the moment would be beyond their wildest
0:17:31 > 0:17:35dreams. Now one wanted to protect theirs. There are serious questions
0:17:35 > 0:17:40about Donald Trump's judgment in terms of his decision to back this
0:17:40 > 0:17:46guy that everybody advised him not to back. I think this battle that
0:17:46 > 0:17:53has been happening will dominate the midterms next year. Do we stick with
0:17:53 > 0:18:01conservative Republicans or the route of candidates represented at
0:18:01 > 0:18:06-- by Donald Trump. They would be much more careful about who they
0:18:06 > 0:18:11choose in the midterms next year and it will make it more difficult for
0:18:11 > 0:18:14Democrats then if there is a sensible Republican that will be
0:18:14 > 0:18:18more difficult to win that seat. Donald Trump still has a huge
0:18:18 > 0:18:28following.Nationally, it is very low.In Alabama, his base still
0:18:28 > 0:18:32voted for Roy Moore. We're not talking about a massive election
0:18:32 > 0:18:39win. Centage wise, it was still a small victory.There weren't as many
0:18:39 > 0:18:46people. A lot of them that voted for Donald Trump did not vote for the
0:18:46 > 0:18:51Republican candidate. Southern parts of Alabama, they did. In the suburbs
0:18:51 > 0:18:56and urban areas, they didn't. You saw people who have voted for Trump
0:18:56 > 0:19:03then turned. Donald Trump's own election was very close. It takes
0:19:03 > 0:19:07something small and if these suburban voters are flipping, that
0:19:07 > 0:19:13is a worry for the Republicans.I take comfort from the woods that he
0:19:13 > 0:19:16is in a difficult state because the rest of the world is wondering
0:19:16 > 0:19:23whether America... The President, it is a huge burden on the
0:19:23 > 0:19:29international scene and for the prospect of a Republican party
0:19:29 > 0:19:37moderating itself in voting for someone else, it is huge news. The
0:19:37 > 0:19:48uncertainty.It is the whole circle. He is a product of what they have
0:19:48 > 0:19:54been doing behind the scenes. The alt right -- outright influence
0:19:54 > 0:20:01remains very strong.It will not win them an election. People forget how
0:20:01 > 0:20:04close it was when Donald Trump one. It doesn't take that much to push a
0:20:04 > 0:20:13Democrat over the line. In the midterms, you have got Senate seats
0:20:13 > 0:20:16open in states that Trump one. That would be an uphill struggle for the
0:20:16 > 0:20:30Democrats. You already see Paul Ryan, the Republican leader, saying
0:20:30 > 0:20:35he is soul-searching. There is this report that he has been considering
0:20:35 > 0:20:41resigning and not running in November 20 18. The feeling that if
0:20:41 > 0:20:47the Republicans tried to go after special counsel, Robert Muller, does
0:20:47 > 0:20:56he want to be fronting mats? That will play a huge effect on how the
0:20:56 > 0:20:59November midterms play out. We don't know what else is Robert Muller is
0:20:59 > 0:21:06sitting on and what else he can come out with. He has got with four
0:21:06 > 0:21:10indictments and has two cooperating with him. I would not downplay how
0:21:10 > 0:21:15much additional indictments could affect the prospects for the
0:21:15 > 0:21:25Republican party going forward.On a lot of conservative channels, the
0:21:25 > 0:21:32talk was about Robert Muller's investigation and there is now a
0:21:32 > 0:21:37theory that the investigation against Donald Trump is biased. A
0:21:37 > 0:21:42lot of conservative media are saying it. He went to an FBI graduation
0:21:42 > 0:21:47ceremony yesterday and on his way, he gave a speech saying the FBI were
0:21:47 > 0:21:51disc rates fall, he was going to fix things, the Hillary Clinton
0:21:51 > 0:21:55investigation was a hoax and there was a witchhunt against him. We have
0:21:55 > 0:21:59an unprecedented breakdown in relations between FBI and the
0:21:59 > 0:22:05executive. Also we have a concerted effort to delegitimise the
0:22:05 > 0:22:09investigation. If you do is find out anything negative about Donald
0:22:09 > 0:22:13Trump, Donald Trump is ready to see this investigation was flawed and we
0:22:13 > 0:22:19don't trust them. It is a serious issue.It is to do with this
0:22:19 > 0:22:23terrible dangerous thing that has grown both in this country and the
0:22:23 > 0:22:28US, that the elite is plotting against the interests of the people.
0:22:28 > 0:22:33They played this every time. They are out to get Donald Trump, they
0:22:33 > 0:22:40have created this thing, this is a man who the people want and all of
0:22:40 > 0:22:48this rhetoric. Evident...Vladimir Putin gave his press conference this
0:22:48 > 0:22:54week where he deprived himself of the problems that Donald Trump is
0:22:54 > 0:22:57happening. He is deep in trouble about this connection with America.
0:22:57 > 0:23:05He has his hands dirty because of the influence and interference of
0:23:05 > 0:23:12Russia. The fact that Vladimir Putin is on the side of the Donald Trump
0:23:12 > 0:23:14camp, makes me sure the investigation will come out all
0:23:14 > 0:23:22right.I read that they asked a group of Americans outside the main
0:23:22 > 0:23:26big cities where Russia was and three quarters of the people had
0:23:26 > 0:23:31never heard the word, Russia. We're talking about levels of ignorance
0:23:31 > 0:23:42that really striking.You talk about the vote and the tax laws. That
0:23:42 > 0:23:46assuming it goes through will be trumpeted as his first big
0:23:46 > 0:23:50legislative victory. We know the arguments on both sides but he and
0:23:50 > 0:23:54the administration will betray this as delivering on his election
0:23:54 > 0:24:02promises.He will score a victory on that front. However, what is unclear
0:24:02 > 0:24:08is how much that tax cut will be felt by voters by November 20 18.
0:24:08 > 0:24:13Some voters will feel it immediately but it gives the Democrats a
0:24:13 > 0:24:20platform to campaign on. This was a massive tax cut for the wealthy and
0:24:20 > 0:24:25for big corporations and four Trump himself. The businesses, it is
0:24:25 > 0:24:29remarkable how much he and the organisations would benefit from
0:24:29 > 0:24:39this tax cuts. That gives them a natural platform to campaign on and
0:24:39 > 0:24:47it is incredibly unpopular, this tax cut.It is corporate and personal.
0:24:47 > 0:24:53$1 trillion of tax cuts. $1 trillion goes to the corporations.The impact
0:24:53 > 0:25:05on the middle classes?200 to 300 billion for individual tax cuts.
0:25:05 > 0:25:10Again, attacks go at the top honours -- burners, which is the latest.
0:25:10 > 0:25:16Although it will cut taxes on middle and low income, those expire and
0:25:16 > 0:25:19some won't necessarily feel that until they file their tax returns
0:25:19 > 0:25:26the following year. We have seen from previous tax cuts under Barack
0:25:26 > 0:25:33Obama, he gave similar tax cuts of 800 and most people didn't notice
0:25:33 > 0:25:38it. If people don't notice any real benefits from this tax cuts and
0:25:38 > 0:25:44Democrats are campaigning this was a massive cut for the rich, then that
0:25:44 > 0:25:54happens them a lot of firepower.An interesting note on which to end.
0:25:54 > 0:25:59That is all we have time for this week. Join us next week if you can.
0:25:59 > 0:26:02Thanks for watching, goodbye.