0:00:22 > 0:00:25Hello and a warm welcome to Dateline London.
0:00:25 > 0:00:27I'm Jane Hill.
0:00:27 > 0:00:33Today we're taking time to reflect on 2017 as it draws to a close -
0:00:33 > 0:00:36the highs and lows in Europe, America and the Middle East.
0:00:36 > 0:00:40Let's find out what my guests have made of a turbulent year.
0:00:40 > 0:00:43With me, the British political commentator and columnist
0:00:43 > 0:00:46Steve Richards, the American writer and broadcaster Jef McAllister, Marc
0:00:46 > 0:00:49Roche from France's Le Point magazine and also Belgium's Le Soir,
0:00:49 > 0:00:54and the Arab affairs qriter Abdel Bari Atwan.
0:00:54 > 0:00:58Welcome to you all.
0:01:00 > 0:01:02What a year in British politics.
0:01:02 > 0:01:05An election that didn't need to be called, a reduced majority for
0:01:05 > 0:01:08Theresa May's Conservative Party, the rise of Labour's Jeremy Corbyn.
0:01:08 > 0:01:11And what of policy and legislation?
0:01:11 > 0:01:13That's on the back burner.
0:01:13 > 0:01:15To adapt the famous American
0:01:15 > 0:01:17political phrase, it's all about Brexit, stupid.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20Steve, did you think Theresa May would still be
0:01:20 > 0:01:28Prime Minister this Christmas?
0:01:28 > 0:01:34To be honest, I did.British political journalism is punctuated
0:01:34 > 0:01:39on a daily basis that a Prime Minister -- with speculation that
0:01:39 > 0:01:44the Prime Minister is about to fall and they usually stay. So I am not
0:01:44 > 0:01:50surprised. She is dog-eared and determined. I'm told that even after
0:01:50 > 0:01:54the election trauma, she did not contemplate going. But at the same
0:01:54 > 0:02:02time, that election changed everything in British politics. It
0:02:02 > 0:02:07was as significant as the 1979 election when Margaret Thatcher
0:02:07 > 0:02:12appeared on the scene. Because even though Theresa May is still on the
0:02:12 > 0:02:17scene, it has changed the dynamics of Brexit, it has falsified the idea
0:02:17 > 0:02:23that a left-wing leader is due for oblivion is standing for election,
0:02:23 > 0:02:29change the assumption that young people do not vote. And it is still
0:02:29 > 0:02:32defining our politics many months later even though the same Prime
0:02:32 > 0:02:37Minister is in place. I started by saying this was about British
0:02:37 > 0:02:41politics but what has British politics been this year, all about
0:02:41 > 0:02:48Brexit. And that is what we have to talk about. Marc your thoughts about
0:02:48 > 0:02:52looking back on 2017, it took eight or nine months to get an agreement
0:02:52 > 0:03:04to get to phase two macro. 2017 has been dominated by the Brexit deal in
0:03:04 > 0:03:09phase one. We lost nine months due to British internal politics. The
0:03:09 > 0:03:16whole thing came together extremely vaguely.The good thing for Europe
0:03:16 > 0:03:20is that Theresa May is still there because the devil you know is better
0:03:20 > 0:03:25than the devil you don't. Europe helps Theresa May to stay in power.
0:03:25 > 0:03:30But I think in Europe, it was a mixed year. You have bad news with
0:03:30 > 0:03:38the extreme right coming to power in Austria, destabilising Chancellor
0:03:38 > 0:03:47Merkel, problems in Catalonia. But then the good news was that the EU
0:03:47 > 0:03:51stayed united on the Brexit deal, the Eurozone is getting out of
0:03:51 > 0:03:58trouble and France had President Macron, a modernist and the future
0:03:58 > 0:04:07of Europe coming to power. LAUGHTER.
0:04:07 > 0:04:14Such equanimity, perhaps laughter suggests a prize!British politics
0:04:14 > 0:04:19was paralysed completely by Brexit. Nobody is talking about any other
0:04:19 > 0:04:24problems, about health, education, economic growth, the stagnation of
0:04:24 > 0:04:31the economy in this country. So it is amazing. Brexit, Brexit. The
0:04:31 > 0:04:35newspapers brainwashed people and diverted them from their own worries
0:04:35 > 0:04:43in this country. So I don't know how things will develop. OK, many people
0:04:43 > 0:04:49anticipated Theresa May's fall, many people did not expect her to last.
0:04:49 > 0:04:53She surprised everybody. The first phase of the negotiation actually
0:04:53 > 0:04:57went through and we are now coming to the difficult one, which is how
0:04:57 > 0:05:03the single market agreements could be finalised. It is extremely
0:05:03 > 0:05:11difficult. So I believe that Britain needs a charismatic leader, a strong
0:05:11 > 0:05:16leader, to negotiate for the next phase because it will be crucial to
0:05:16 > 0:05:22reach a good deal. So, if not, I believe this country will suffer.
0:05:22 > 0:05:29You can see now... Why Britain is afraid from election? Why can't we
0:05:29 > 0:05:35have election?There was election. Britain needs stability for a few
0:05:35 > 0:05:40years to get Brexit through and also other things through and Theresa May
0:05:40 > 0:05:45is the best leader, by default maybe, to do a deal in Europe like
0:05:45 > 0:05:53she did a deal in 2017 which is a good deal because you need a soft
0:05:53 > 0:05:57Brexit, you can't have a hard Brexit and you can't have no deal. And
0:05:57 > 0:06:04she's the best to bring that.Next week, we can discuss what might be
0:06:04 > 0:06:09awaiting us! Jef, what do you think of an extraordinary year in Britain,
0:06:09 > 0:06:15and Brexit?I am pleased that because of those papering over of
0:06:15 > 0:06:21the differences in the phase one summit two macro years ago, everyone
0:06:21 > 0:06:29says OK. But fundamentally, I have felt that this is an arm -- a circle
0:06:29 > 0:06:34that cannot be squared. Brexit does not make sense for Britain and the
0:06:34 > 0:06:38deal that makes Britain prosperous and happy and makes every body have
0:06:38 > 0:06:43their cake and eat it, does not exist. The only way that it has been
0:06:43 > 0:06:46able to be successful so far is that the hard issues have not been
0:06:46 > 0:06:54joined. I don't see how anywhere in Europe, the kind of trade deal that
0:06:54 > 0:07:04Britney is to prosper can be achieved with the way that the
0:07:04 > 0:07:07negotiations are structured. -- the kind of trade deal that Britain
0:07:07 > 0:07:16needs is to be -- to prosper. It is going to be a car crash. I am amazed
0:07:16 > 0:07:21that there was not more talk about productivity and the fact that
0:07:21 > 0:07:28people, because they feel the cold wind of Brexit, are leaving. Nurses
0:07:28 > 0:07:32from the health service, doctors, professors, making their deals to
0:07:32 > 0:07:40go. We know that? Yes, it is peaking. The rate of increase of
0:07:40 > 0:07:43immigration to Britain is decreasing and there have been lots of
0:07:43 > 0:07:47interesting stories done about nurses who have been here for 25
0:07:47 > 0:07:53years of saying, they don't want me here, I am going home.Steve, do you
0:07:53 > 0:07:58pick up in your circle frustration that other domestic political issues
0:07:58 > 0:08:06have not had much focus this year? Do you pick up on people saying
0:08:06 > 0:08:13could Westminster tackle transport or anything else?I am afraid I'm
0:08:13 > 0:08:18sad enough to hang around with people obsessed with Brexit so why
0:08:18 > 0:08:23spend the whole 2017 talking with people like that! But in 2017,
0:08:23 > 0:08:29Brexit sucked up all political energy. In every sense. The stress
0:08:29 > 0:08:34and tension as they moved the phase one agreement in that James Bond
0:08:34 > 0:08:38movie when she flew in the middle of the night to sign it on that Friday
0:08:38 > 0:08:47morning at the end of December. To just the logistics, our embryonic
0:08:47 > 0:08:51trade arrangements being looked at by people with no experience of
0:08:51 > 0:08:56negotiating trade deals. Of her working out how the regulatory
0:08:56 > 0:09:00framework will work post-Brexit. These are massive issues and it is
0:09:00 > 0:09:06the case that normally at the end of the year you have looked back at the
0:09:06 > 0:09:09NHS, public spending, tax, all the things you talk about in British
0:09:09 > 0:09:20politics...Yes yes.Europe is not obsessed by Brexit. We are going on
0:09:20 > 0:09:25with main issues like do we want a federal Europe or a two speed
0:09:25 > 0:09:35Europe. Britain is obsessed.One thing is clear, Britain is going
0:09:35 > 0:09:42back to the blue passports! No more of the red passports!Yes, we got
0:09:42 > 0:09:45that.
0:09:45 > 0:09:47January saw the inauguration of the 45th President
0:09:47 > 0:09:48of the United States.
0:09:48 > 0:09:50The swearing-in was seen "by the largest crowd to ever
0:09:50 > 0:09:52watch an inauguration" - copyright Sean Spicer.
0:09:52 > 0:09:53Campaign pledges fulfilled?
0:09:53 > 0:09:55Pulling out of the Paris climate accord, and tax cuts
0:09:55 > 0:09:56recently voted through.
0:09:56 > 0:09:58We've also seen the continuation of bellicose language,
0:09:58 > 0:09:59fake news and alternative facts.
0:09:59 > 0:10:09Jef - Trump's been in office 11 months, how's his record?
0:10:10 > 0:10:17I think it is so bad in some ways that it becomes... We become in year
0:10:17 > 0:10:26to it. -- we become used to it. He is a remarkable figure, not in a
0:10:26 > 0:10:33good way. These tax cuts, there are so many bad things to talk about.
0:10:33 > 0:10:39His most recent achievement, just voted through.Like the founder of
0:10:39 > 0:10:43Trump University, the Taj Mahal casino, great promises but not very
0:10:43 > 0:10:49good in reality. This tax cut, there is a tax cut but 60% of the benefit
0:10:49 > 0:10:54goes to the top 1%. Trump himself will benefit greatly from it because
0:10:54 > 0:10:58a lot of the provisions seem to benefit real estate trusts and
0:10:58 > 0:11:05things he has a personal interest in. The Republican Party passed it.
0:11:05 > 0:11:10They say bad things, and they say he goes too far or attacks people
0:11:10 > 0:11:13wrongly, the tweaking has to stop, but they all lined up behind him and
0:11:13 > 0:11:22voted for it. There is a way in which he... The fake news, that you
0:11:22 > 0:11:29mention, he has cheapened the language. It is almost Orwellian. It
0:11:29 > 0:11:33is cheap Orwellian, where you can't know what the truth is. Scientists
0:11:33 > 0:11:38are leaving the government. The Treasury Department experts on the
0:11:38 > 0:11:41tax bill were not allowed to speak because they would have pointed out
0:11:41 > 0:11:46the contradictions. And so you have get the mooring is what make a
0:11:46 > 0:11:54democracy possible loosened by constant nasty nurse from him. --
0:11:54 > 0:12:03you have the moorings of what makes a democracy possible.As he has said
0:12:03 > 0:12:11-- as we have said, his call vote is still there. When the pollsters go
0:12:11 > 0:12:15out, they don't find people who regretted voting for Trump, they say
0:12:15 > 0:12:26they would do it again.The economy is growing. Employment is up, he has
0:12:26 > 0:12:33put his people in the Federal bank. People vote for the economy.But it
0:12:33 > 0:12:40is not his legacy. It is Obama's leather goods they -- it is Obama's
0:12:40 > 0:12:51legacy.That is irrelevant. The legacy is there.It is an
0:12:51 > 0:12:58inheritance but even in New Jersey and Alabama, boaters voted against
0:12:58 > 0:13:03Trump. He is at the lowest rating. His core supporters are unshakeable
0:13:03 > 0:13:07but the suburban women, the college educated, the Rabuka moderates, are
0:13:07 > 0:13:18finding him offensive and who knows, but you are saying resistance. You
0:13:18 > 0:13:25see Muller and the press doing good reporting and the me two movements
0:13:25 > 0:13:31-- hashtag me to movement.That that tie into the first Democratic says
0:13:31 > 0:13:39of being elected Al Obama quest -- Alabama? But no impact on the core
0:13:39 > 0:13:46base.The coming election in November will decide. I presume
0:13:46 > 0:13:53there will be a shock to President Trump. When we talk about the
0:13:53 > 0:13:57internals, the economy is improving and unemployment is down to 4.7%
0:13:57 > 0:14:07instead of 10.4%. The stock exchange is also increasing and the stock
0:14:07 > 0:14:11market is very high. But you can't say that he achieved that in 11
0:14:11 > 0:14:18months. Definitely there is a groundwork for this. And foreign
0:14:18 > 0:14:25policy, just last Wednesday, last Thursday, we had a huge referendum
0:14:25 > 0:14:30about President Trump and his foreign policy. It was a huge
0:14:30 > 0:14:33defeat, two thirds of the international community voted
0:14:33 > 0:14:37against his resolution to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to
0:14:37 > 0:14:42Jerusalem. There was a huge disapproval of him. Another
0:14:42 > 0:14:48challenge that he cannot handle, North Korea. It is a nuclear power
0:14:48 > 0:14:54now. A ballistic missile our power. And they managed to continue their
0:14:54 > 0:14:57nuclear test, their missile test and they have a huge capability to hurt
0:14:57 > 0:15:04their neighbours in South Korea and Japan. And they could reach the
0:15:04 > 0:15:09United States. This is a huge failure.We will talk more about
0:15:09 > 0:15:15that in a moment. Steve, your thoughts?The core verges always the
0:15:15 > 0:15:23last. Hardline Brexiteers is always the last to move. They are not going
0:15:23 > 0:15:29to admit that they were wrong to electron. But he has shown the power
0:15:29 > 0:15:35of words. A lot of the things he said he would do, he has not done.
0:15:35 > 0:15:39He said he would scrap Obamacare and some of the things he said he would
0:15:39 > 0:15:44do here is not being able to do. But the words themselves have provoked,
0:15:44 > 0:15:52incited. It just shows, using presidency in a way no one else has,
0:15:52 > 0:15:57as an altar. Not just measures being and lamented but words uttered being
0:15:57 > 0:16:05enough to shake things up and in nearly always alarming ways.It is
0:16:05 > 0:16:11the Internet age, it is trolling, it is not thoughtful and it
0:16:11 > 0:16:16destabilises. And the Internet permits him and has made him and
0:16:16 > 0:16:25permits the Russians to interfere in the American election and this is
0:16:25 > 0:16:28the technological trend that underlines the uncertainties and
0:16:28 > 0:16:32difficulties that we are grappling with.You have touched on things
0:16:32 > 0:16:37that we will pick up on next week. Let's reflect a little further on
0:16:37 > 0:16:40the year that is coming to an end.
0:16:40 > 0:16:42in particular the Middle East.
0:16:42 > 0:16:46In October Raqqa, the de facto capital of so called Islamic State,
0:16:46 > 0:16:49finally fell to US backed forces.
0:16:49 > 0:16:51Is there finally a degree
0:16:51 > 0:16:54of stability in Syria?
0:16:54 > 0:16:55And North Korea conducted a series
0:16:55 > 0:17:00of weapons tests, including launching its longest
0:17:00 > 0:17:10range missile to date.
0:17:10 > 0:17:16At Dell, you commented on this, do you have any optimism?There is a
0:17:16 > 0:17:21sense that after as so many years of turmoil and walls and destruction
0:17:21 > 0:17:26and death, we have a relatively stable Syria. Islamic State was
0:17:26 > 0:17:30defeated, it was defeated on the ground. The caliphate is
0:17:30 > 0:17:38nonexistent. They used to control an area which was half of Iraq and half
0:17:38 > 0:17:44of Syria. No more. But the question is, can we celebrate? I believe it
0:17:44 > 0:17:52is premature. We have to wait. Because those people now in
0:17:52 > 0:17:54transition in Syria, they disappeared.Physically, where are
0:17:54 > 0:18:02they?They are underground. We look at Islamic State in Syria and Iraq
0:18:02 > 0:18:08but they have branches all over the world. They have provinces in Libya
0:18:08 > 0:18:15and Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan. Still some of them are
0:18:15 > 0:18:20underground in Iraq and Syria. They could surface any time. They are
0:18:20 > 0:18:24more dangerous now because it is very cheap to carry out terrorism
0:18:24 > 0:18:31for revenge. We have to remember that September 11, the whole
0:18:31 > 0:18:38operation cost only about $320,000 and look at the losses which the
0:18:38 > 0:18:45whole world suffered from. We have to look at three countries. Libya,
0:18:45 > 0:18:54Yemen and Afghanistan. These semi-failed or failed states are
0:18:54 > 0:19:00candidates to be the new kit quarto of the -- headquarters of the
0:19:00 > 0:19:09Islamic State. Where it was at the macabre, his cabinet, -- the leader
0:19:09 > 0:19:14of Islamic State, where it is cabinet? They used our 15,000 20,000
0:19:14 > 0:19:24sympathisers and members or fighters, where are they now? Where
0:19:24 > 0:19:27have they disappeared to? Winner that America has the best
0:19:27 > 0:19:31surveillance and the intelligence service, we know that America has
0:19:31 > 0:19:39the best intelligence service. The same with the British and the
0:19:39 > 0:19:44friend, where are these people?So the fault of Raqqa is only a
0:19:44 > 0:19:51temporary reprieve?It is a pause. Which is good news in 2017 but you
0:19:51 > 0:19:56are making the point that there is...It is very good news to get
0:19:56 > 0:20:01rid of them. Very good news to defeat them. They are not as they
0:20:01 > 0:20:05used to be. They don't have the freedom to move and they are not
0:20:05 > 0:20:09controlling or having a strong base in the digital world. They are not
0:20:09 > 0:20:16on Facebook or Twitter as much as they used to be. So this is the most
0:20:16 > 0:20:23important thing. If this is the point of their strength, to control
0:20:23 > 0:20:29their media, video tapes, newspapers, now it is gone. The
0:20:29 > 0:20:33recruitment network, they used to having huge recruitment network, it
0:20:33 > 0:20:40is very weak and now. But we have to be very careful. They can come back
0:20:40 > 0:20:46easily. Now they want to take revenge. Plan B is terrorism. They
0:20:46 > 0:20:51could terrorise the whole world. They are very vicious people. But
0:20:51 > 0:20:55the last thing, this unity from the international community, when they
0:20:55 > 0:21:00united together to fight this phenomenon, now I can see this unity
0:21:00 > 0:21:13is weakening a bit.By the US?Five Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as
0:21:13 > 0:21:21the capital of Israel, it has put Trump outside the unity. The only
0:21:21 > 0:21:27realistic way was as Macron said by saving the Prime Minister of Lebanon
0:21:27 > 0:21:35from being a prisoner and giving Lebanon, this fragile country. --
0:21:35 > 0:21:44keeping Lebanon. But it is very gloomy for the Middle East.We end
0:21:44 > 0:21:53this year with more stability?Yes, destruction but at least Syria is
0:21:53 > 0:21:58now stable. The real unstable thing is Lebanon and Israel and Palestine
0:21:58 > 0:22:06where things have got worse.It is not only Syria which is stable now.
0:22:06 > 0:22:11Relatively stable. It is the whole region. Iraq is stable again. Syria
0:22:11 > 0:22:18and Iraq are coming back. Also the stability of Syria is good for
0:22:18 > 0:22:21immigration because many people, many Syrian people will go back
0:22:21 > 0:22:24because Syria is a rich country and the people of Syria are
0:22:24 > 0:22:30hard-working.It is devastated at the moment, the infrastructure is
0:22:30 > 0:22:33devastated, but the point is that there will be those who want to
0:22:33 > 0:22:40return.They will be reconstruction in Syria and Iraq. This will attract
0:22:40 > 0:22:44a lot of capital, a lot of skilled people. It will attract a lot of
0:22:44 > 0:22:54immigrants.Yemen, in Egypt, in Lebanon, it is very piecemeal. A
0:22:54 > 0:23:01chequered situation.We are talking about Syria and Iraq but Yemen is
0:23:01 > 0:23:04important, there is a forgotten war there for the last three years and
0:23:04 > 0:23:10the West and not paying attention to the destruction of Yemen. About 1
0:23:10 > 0:23:13million people facing an affidavit of cholera and 17 million people in
0:23:13 > 0:23:23Yemen facing starvation.Britain stayed out because of the Saudis.
0:23:23 > 0:23:27The Saudis were bombing them. The Saudis could not win this war for
0:23:27 > 0:23:30the last three years and the international community should
0:23:30 > 0:23:34intervene and put an end to this war. Boris Johnson said it is
0:23:34 > 0:23:40illegal, to keep the sanctions on Yemen because people are starving.
0:23:40 > 0:23:47Donald Trump's relationship with the Yemen is nonexistent. They will be
0:23:47 > 0:23:59nothing done. It is interesting to me, the idea that the Saudis can
0:23:59 > 0:24:02modernise is attractive to outsiders. I don't know whether it
0:24:02 > 0:24:12is possible. One wonders because it is a complex is system, whether he
0:24:12 > 0:24:17can keep all the strings was she has now pulled, in control.I completely
0:24:17 > 0:24:26agree with you, he is modernising the country, the leader of Saudi. He
0:24:26 > 0:24:32is dismantling a radical sect of Islam which used to control the
0:24:32 > 0:24:37country and promote radicalism. Most of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State, there
0:24:37 > 0:24:47ideology was from what hobbies. Secondly, he is -- -- from the sect.
0:24:47 > 0:24:52He is also modernising like allowing women to drive. He is opening up the
0:24:52 > 0:24:57country to tourism. But the problem is that he is involved in this war
0:24:57 > 0:25:05in Yemen. Andy is also getting Trump a lot of money. $460 billion which
0:25:05 > 0:25:10created a loss of jobs for the Americans. But not for Middle East
0:25:10 > 0:25:19and, not for Saudis. Modernising yev, but bad policy as well.I want
0:25:19 > 0:25:25to mention Iran. Steve, do you have thoughts on the year that has gone?
0:25:25 > 0:25:28Not really. I would like to look back and say that the questions that
0:25:28 > 0:25:34have dominated the politics of the Middle East in 2017, like how do you
0:25:34 > 0:25:44deal with a stateless institution like Isis? You can get grid of them
0:25:44 > 0:25:49-- you can get rid of them in Raqqa but you don't get rid of them
0:25:49 > 0:25:52altogether. And the pertinent questions remain the same at the end
0:25:52 > 0:25:58of the year. And Trump is the calamitous figure to be a mediating
0:25:58 > 0:26:07figure, those questions were raised in 2011, 2013 to 16 under Blair,
0:26:07 > 0:26:11Busch and Obama and nobody has found adequate answers to them yet. That
0:26:11 > 0:26:14seems to be the sort of issue that will be framing the next year as
0:26:14 > 0:26:20well.Thank you very much to all of you. We could talk a lot longer.
0:26:20 > 0:26:23That's all for this week, though not this year -
0:26:23 > 0:26:26do join us at the same time next week when we'll consider
0:26:26 > 0:26:27what 2018 may have in store.
0:26:27 > 0:26:28For now, if you're celebrating Christmas,
0:26:28 > 0:26:30do enjoy the festive season.
0:26:30 > 0:26:32Thanks for watching, goodbye.