0:00:24 > 0:00:28Hello, and welcome to Dateline London, I'm Jane Hill.
0:00:28 > 0:00:31We're taking time today to look ahead to the world in 2018,
0:00:31 > 0:00:35in Britain, the rest of Europe, the US and around the world.
0:00:35 > 0:00:39With me is the British commentator and columnist
0:00:39 > 0:00:42for the Sunday Telegraph, Janet Daley,
0:00:42 > 0:00:45the writer on Arab Affairs, Abdel Bari Atwan,
0:00:45 > 0:00:48from Germany's Die Welt, Stephanie Bolzen,
0:00:48 > 0:00:57and from the US, Stryker McGuire from Bloomberg.
0:00:57 > 0:01:01A warm welcome to you all. Thank you for joining us.
0:01:01 > 0:01:03We begin in Europe.
0:01:03 > 0:01:06January is a time for talks - phase two of the Brexit negotiations
0:01:06 > 0:01:09will finally get underway between the UK and EU,
0:01:09 > 0:01:12while in Germany Angela Merkel has to resume discussions about forming
0:01:12 > 0:01:15a government, after her attempts to do so failed in the wake
0:01:15 > 0:01:20of September's election.
0:01:20 > 0:01:23Janet, it took a very long time to get through phase one
0:01:23 > 0:01:24of the Brexit talks.
0:01:24 > 0:01:33How optimistic are you going into the next round?
0:01:33 > 0:01:40Yes, optimistic ultimately, but it is going to be messy and bloody. It
0:01:40 > 0:01:46is all every stage of this will follow the trajectory of the
0:01:46 > 0:01:50preliminary stage, so it looks like a my asthma off chaos and
0:01:50 > 0:01:54recrimination, and tell five minutes until midnight when suddenly it will
0:01:54 > 0:01:59be resolved and that is because economic reality has to take royalty
0:01:59 > 0:02:05over political vanity. The extent of the recriminations and poisonous
0:02:05 > 0:02:09atmosphere is correlated to the need to find a solution to the bitterness
0:02:09 > 0:02:14that European capitals feel about the UK leaving. But ultimately,
0:02:14 > 0:02:20there will be a kind of good news, which most of the media will regard
0:02:20 > 0:02:25as a surprise, even though it was inevitable and somehow or other it
0:02:25 > 0:02:29will come right in terms of peasant nation. What that will actually
0:02:29 > 0:02:36mean, your guess is as good as mine -- in terms of presentation. Because
0:02:36 > 0:02:43of all the recrimination and chaos, which will miraculously dissolve in
0:02:43 > 0:02:48everybody congratulating everybody else will actually strengthen the
0:02:48 > 0:02:53position of Theresa May, so she personally will be stronger this
0:02:53 > 0:03:00year than last year.And that is so interesting, domestically.I just
0:03:00 > 0:03:07can't believe there will be -- there won't be recrimination. But there
0:03:07 > 0:03:12will be. This would hug will be really small.In the last period,
0:03:12 > 0:03:16they were all calling each other names, all costing each other out of
0:03:16 > 0:03:23the garden, and then suddenly, Rob Theresa May was praised. Absolutely,
0:03:23 > 0:03:30it was all wonderful and happy. Mutual regard, that will happen at
0:03:30 > 0:03:35least half a dozen times in the next year.I think that the true
0:03:35 > 0:03:39believers are never going to be satisfied with what she gets.That
0:03:39 > 0:03:46is true. But they are a smaller and smaller number.She deserves the
0:03:46 > 0:03:49praise, to be honest. Many people predicted that she would not be up
0:03:49 > 0:03:54to the job, so she managed to handle... She would not even be
0:03:54 > 0:04:00there. Yes, exactly. Many people had a huge doubt about her capabilities
0:04:00 > 0:04:07to actually negotiate these tough issues, and to be fair to her, they
0:04:07 > 0:04:15managed to at least first achieved the border problem with Northern
0:04:15 > 0:04:24Ireland. Also the British expats in Europe, and European expat in
0:04:24 > 0:04:33Britain. In a short time, it is a huge achievement. The next phase
0:04:33 > 0:04:37will be difficult, but judging by the first phase, I am optimistic.We
0:04:37 > 0:04:45are very much here to look forward to the year ahead. Here in this city
0:04:45 > 0:04:51we are rightly or wrongly obsessed with Brexit. Germany has its own
0:04:51 > 0:04:54issues to confront, and we sometimes forget that Germany is technically
0:04:54 > 0:04:59does not have its formal government yet.Yes, there were elections in
0:04:59 > 0:05:03September, then coalition talks with two smaller parties, these broke
0:05:03 > 0:05:08down and now on January seven there will be the next round with the
0:05:08 > 0:05:15social Democrats, which may mean we will see a third round of coalition
0:05:15 > 0:05:24between the two big parties.What does that mean? I am not the macro
0:05:24 > 0:05:31try not to put Brexit in my next sentence! But what will it mean for
0:05:31 > 0:05:37the negotiations? Not much. Angela Merkel is seen as the rock at the
0:05:37 > 0:05:41heart of this.Whatever the government is in Germany, it will
0:05:41 > 0:05:45not make a difference towards Brexit. Some people say if it is a
0:05:45 > 0:05:50coalition with the social Democrats which would mean that Michael
0:05:50 > 0:05:56Schultz will be Vice Chancellor, whatever he might be, it might mean
0:05:56 > 0:06:02a harder time for Britain because he is a European, but it won't change
0:06:02 > 0:06:05much. It is not only Germany negotiating with Britain, do not
0:06:05 > 0:06:13forget this. I attended the last summit in Brussels and I had not
0:06:13 > 0:06:19been there for a long time. When you live in Britain, it is Brexit all
0:06:19 > 0:06:23day and all night, but bear, hardly anybody talks about Brexit, they
0:06:23 > 0:06:28talk about their own organs. It is massive in Europe -- their own
0:06:28 > 0:06:36problems. Europe is pretty much in 2018 looking at itself, not so much
0:06:36 > 0:06:40Britain.Much of the rest of the world looks at Angela Merkel as a
0:06:40 > 0:06:48kind of rock, and they yearn for her continuance. Not in Germany though.
0:06:48 > 0:06:56I know! Is the rest of the world wrong to have this much faith?
0:06:56 > 0:07:02Tomorrow, it is the 30th time she will hold the New Year speech. It is
0:07:02 > 0:07:05a very solid institution at the end of the year, to have an outlook
0:07:05 > 0:07:12towards the next year, and it is her 13th time. The Germans are tired of
0:07:12 > 0:07:19her. As you rightly say, she sees herself as a rock. You have Donald
0:07:19 > 0:07:22Trump, Brexit, wards, so she sees a duty of serving the country as her
0:07:22 > 0:07:32mandate.You have mentioned the Tramp, excellent. Let's turn to the
0:07:32 > 0:07:34US where analysts are already speculating about the possible
0:07:34 > 0:07:42results of the mid-term elections and could upset me on the cards for
0:07:42 > 0:07:44Trump?
0:07:44 > 0:07:46But that, of course, isn't until November -
0:07:46 > 0:07:48much could happen before then in the unpredictable White House.
0:07:48 > 0:07:51Stryker, rather than thinking about elections, should
0:07:51 > 0:07:54we perhaps be focusing on Robert Mueller's
0:07:54 > 0:07:58Russia investigation?
0:07:58 > 0:08:04Well, we can think about Robert Mueller, and clearly that is hugely
0:08:04 > 0:08:09important. However, there is this almost sort of incredibly narrow
0:08:09 > 0:08:14view of the Trump administration in terms of its troubled as being
0:08:14 > 0:08:21Robert Mueller and Russia, and I don't think that is a terminal
0:08:21 > 0:08:31problem, frankly.For Trump himself? Yes. You think he will survive? I do
0:08:31 > 0:08:36think he will survive, yes. I do, however, think it is a distraction.
0:08:36 > 0:08:40But I feel like it has been more of a distraction in the past than it
0:08:40 > 0:08:44will be in the future. In the future, because of the elections
0:08:44 > 0:08:52that will occur in November, and also because he is hugely unpopular.
0:08:52 > 0:08:56In percentage terms, he is historically unpopular at this stage
0:08:56 > 0:09:04in his presidency. Therefore, having spent his first year being forced to
0:09:04 > 0:09:08be pretty much a traditional conservative Republican in his
0:09:08 > 0:09:13policies, not in his actions, but in his policies.With the tax cuts?
0:09:13 > 0:09:26Absolutely. You have not seen Trump unchained, and that is trade war.
0:09:26 > 0:09:30Trump unchained is even more a change of social policy in the
0:09:30 > 0:09:35United States. He has made huge changes in the judiciary, which
0:09:35 > 0:09:39hardly any of us talk about, but hundreds and hundreds of judges
0:09:39 > 0:09:46coming in who represent a very, very different point of view to the one
0:09:46 > 0:09:51that has prevailed in the last decade or so. I think that because
0:09:51 > 0:09:56he may see the next election as a kind of deadline, he may see that
0:09:56 > 0:10:01these ten, 11 months are super important in terms of making things
0:10:01 > 0:10:06happen that he wants to happen... You say we have not seen him
0:10:06 > 0:10:14unchained. That is a striking phase. Is he going to be? He has been
0:10:14 > 0:10:20surrounded by people, he has been hemmed in by the people around him.
0:10:20 > 0:10:26I think we put too much credence into his tweets, too much weight
0:10:26 > 0:10:31into his tweets. You have to look at what he has actually done, and it
0:10:31 > 0:10:36has not been very much. One reason is because he is really blockaded by
0:10:36 > 0:10:40a kind of establishment, but I'm not sure that that establishment can
0:10:40 > 0:10:51hold.When we look at his foreign policy, it is provocative and a
0:10:51 > 0:10:59disaster, we don't know how he is going to handle North Korea. He
0:10:59 > 0:11:03promised to change the regime, or bomb North Korea, to put an end to
0:11:03 > 0:11:09these nuclear tests, it could not do so completely. When it comes to the
0:11:09 > 0:11:14middle East, in Syria he was defeated. In Russia, they now have
0:11:14 > 0:11:20the upper hand, so when we talk about his latest move to move the
0:11:20 > 0:11:26American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, it has created huge
0:11:26 > 0:11:30problems in the Middle East. The American image is very, very
0:11:30 > 0:11:40damaged. Internally, maybe he improves the economy and implement
0:11:40 > 0:11:48rates, but outside as a superpower, it is losing a lot.I think that is
0:11:48 > 0:11:53true, even though I am Jewish and a supporter of Israel, I thought that
0:11:53 > 0:11:56was a gratuitous gesture, the idea of moving the amnesty to Jerusalem,
0:11:56 > 0:12:02especially as it cannot happen for a couple of years. I thought, what on
0:12:02 > 0:12:06earth is the point of that? It is just to do with the political
0:12:06 > 0:12:12strategy over Iraq. Iran is the chief sponsor of Hezbollah and
0:12:12 > 0:12:20Hamas, and I think that he was trying to show that Iran is not the
0:12:20 > 0:12:23powerful player that it pretends to be in the region, so if there was
0:12:23 > 0:12:28any logic to that move, that is what it was. But I actually think that
0:12:28 > 0:12:32his foreign policy is so ultimately isolationist and protectionist that
0:12:32 > 0:12:35what he is doing is claiming to be removing America from the world
0:12:35 > 0:12:40stage. On the other hand, he makes these very aggressive moves about
0:12:40 > 0:12:45North Korea. The secretary of state seems to be running a completely
0:12:45 > 0:12:49separate foreign policy, though it is difficult to tell what their
0:12:49 > 0:12:53intentions are. Internally, has accomplished very little. The tax
0:12:53 > 0:12:59bill was the first legislative success. But the Justice area is
0:12:59 > 0:13:05very important and that could change the social policy of the country.
0:13:05 > 0:13:11But he is trying to con a run, -- Iran but he is helping it by these
0:13:11 > 0:13:22moves. In heart sing the role of Iran in the region -- enhancing.But
0:13:22 > 0:13:28Barack Obama paved the way for that. That was the most appalling foreign
0:13:28 > 0:13:36policy mistake in living memory, and having inherited that situation, you
0:13:36 > 0:13:42cannot blame the Trump White House all that much.We are talking so
0:13:42 > 0:13:49much about foreign policy, and your point about world reputation and so
0:13:49 > 0:13:54on, but ultimately, people in other countries are not voting for him.
0:13:54 > 0:14:01No, his policies seem to be based, because there is no coherence
0:14:01 > 0:14:05really, but they seem to be based on two things. His own instincts, the
0:14:05 > 0:14:10way he has always operated. And also, the base, this group of
0:14:10 > 0:14:20people. It has led in Arabic into Al-Qaeda. -- translates. It is all
0:14:20 > 0:14:24about the base and what he promised them will stop that is the Jerusalem
0:14:24 > 0:14:29think he promised it during the campaign.It does have something to
0:14:29 > 0:14:35do with the power play with Iran. There was a kind of logic.That is
0:14:35 > 0:14:40interesting, it takes us on to broadening our discussion. Even as
0:14:40 > 0:14:47we go to air in the last few days, there have been striking scenes in
0:14:47 > 0:14:49Iran, with thousands of people taking part in anti-government
0:14:49 > 0:14:51protests.
0:14:51 > 0:14:53Where could this lead?
0:14:53 > 0:14:55And there are numerous other pressure points
0:14:55 > 0:14:58in the world in 2018 - North Korea and its testing
0:14:58 > 0:15:00of ballistic missiles, and what of so-called Islamic State,
0:15:00 > 0:15:03after it was driven out of its Raqqa heartland.
0:15:03 > 0:15:05Bari, are the protests in Iran primarily about the economy,
0:15:05 > 0:15:08where could they lead?
0:15:08 > 0:15:13Actually it is more than the economy. The economic situation is
0:15:13 > 0:15:17very difficult in Iran, definitely the prices are going up
0:15:17 > 0:15:25dramatically, Iran under punishment by the United States, by Europe, but
0:15:25 > 0:15:32I believe also people would like to have more important moves to improve
0:15:32 > 0:15:41that standard of living in Iran itself. You have opposition. The
0:15:41 > 0:15:46protest happened again five years ago, so we don't know yet whether
0:15:46 > 0:15:51this will be a huge uprising, a huge protest, whether they will succeed
0:15:51 > 0:15:58to change that ruling elite in Iran. We don't know yet. But now we have
0:15:58 > 0:16:03two kind of protests. The opposition of the government who are saying we
0:16:03 > 0:16:06don't want to be involved in Lebanon, we don't want to be
0:16:06 > 0:16:11involved in Palestine, we don't want to be involved in Syria, we want to
0:16:11 > 0:16:15concentrate on Iran itself. But you also have a counter protest, which
0:16:15 > 0:16:26is supporting the government. This is the problem. Now, are we going to
0:16:26 > 0:16:32see clashes between the two sides, and is it going to last longer than
0:16:32 > 0:16:40many people anticipated is not until now, there is no blank cheque. But
0:16:40 > 0:16:47what happened in Syria, for example, or Iraq or Egypt or Yemen, until
0:16:47 > 0:16:58now, you know, there are about 50 people arrested, and this proved to
0:16:58 > 0:17:06be Billy macrame that the Iranian regime -- we have to wait and see.
0:17:06 > 0:17:10But Iran will be the major player in that coming year. They will be
0:17:10 > 0:17:17there. Lennon pool-macro Lebanon, they will be there. They are a key
0:17:17 > 0:17:25player.How do you think the balance of power between Saudi Arabia and
0:17:25 > 0:17:31Iran will shape up?A few days ago there was a report on Israeli
0:17:31 > 0:17:40television saying that Trump and Netanyahu struck a deal in order to
0:17:40 > 0:17:47launch a huge and pain against ten three macro to deprive it of nuclear
0:17:47 > 0:17:53progress, and to deprive it of ballistic missile. They are seeking
0:17:53 > 0:18:02a deal in this field. It means the coming year will be crucial. The
0:18:02 > 0:18:12Saudis are in the American camp. The Saudis sense that Iran is a
0:18:12 > 0:18:22dangerous enemy. They look at things from that angle. I believe look at
0:18:22 > 0:18:26Iran in the coming year, it will be a very major player. They managed to
0:18:26 > 0:18:32wind in Syria they have a huge influence in Iraq, and they are also
0:18:32 > 0:18:38having a huge influence, a war by proxy, in Yemen. So they are a major
0:18:38 > 0:18:44player.And the US administration's role in that?It's role at this
0:18:44 > 0:18:53point seems to be very much on the side of the Saudis, and tend to
0:18:53 > 0:18:56macro's foreign policy seems to be motivated, among other things, that
0:18:56 > 0:19:03anything that Barack Obama did, he will not do -- Donald Trump. He is
0:19:03 > 0:19:15very anti-Iran. Steve always had this thing for Iran.They have been
0:19:15 > 0:19:20the main sponsor for terrorism, there is a justification for being
0:19:20 > 0:19:23critical of the Iranian regime, and particular of not wanting them to
0:19:23 > 0:19:28get nuclear weapons.But it is the idea of a huge conflict between Iran
0:19:28 > 0:19:33and Saudi. What you want to try to do is to prevent that from
0:19:33 > 0:19:39happening.But what is the alternative? To go to war against
0:19:39 > 0:19:49Iran? It has a huge arsenal of missiles, also it has military wings
0:19:49 > 0:19:55like Hezbollah in Lebanon, so they can actually create a lot of
0:19:55 > 0:19:59problems. That is why the Europeans are very reserved when it comes to
0:19:59 > 0:20:08Iranians policy. There is a nuclear deal, signed after a brutal and
0:20:08 > 0:20:15lengthy negotiation. Now, Trump is then he will not accept this. What
0:20:15 > 0:20:19is the alternative?There is scepticism about this deal, about
0:20:19 > 0:20:25whether it would prevent Iran from getting nuclear capability. So there
0:20:25 > 0:20:28is a legitimate and justifiable school of thought that says the Iran
0:20:28 > 0:20:36deal was a mistake, and that was Donald Trump's premise.But nuclear
0:20:36 > 0:20:41organisations are monitoring Iranians activities and they gave
0:20:41 > 0:20:46Iran a clean sheet. They said they abided with the treaty completely.
0:20:46 > 0:20:52They did not break the agreement. The Europeans supported that point
0:20:52 > 0:20:58of view, so why Donald Trump is actually trying to bang the drums of
0:20:58 > 0:21:05war against Iran, this is the problem.It is also a problem for
0:21:05 > 0:21:09Europe, it will be a problem for them to say they will stick to this
0:21:09 > 0:21:13deal because this is causing another confrontation between Europe and the
0:21:13 > 0:21:17US. Because Europe is so divided on many things, it will once again
0:21:17 > 0:21:25highlight their weakness.I am sorry, I must cut you off. As we
0:21:25 > 0:21:28approach 2018, we did want to close with a thought from all of you about
0:21:28 > 0:21:32other matters that we have not touched on. 2017 was striking for so
0:21:32 > 0:21:42many things, but particularly for the #MeToo campaign. Helpful to
0:21:42 > 0:21:49women in so many ways, all the accusations around Harvey Weinstein.
0:21:49 > 0:21:55I am interested in your different perspectives. Where does #MeToo go
0:21:55 > 0:22:01in 2018? Does it continue to gather steam, does it help women in some
0:22:01 > 0:22:06countries more than others? It has been such a seismic shift this year.
0:22:06 > 0:22:10Whether or not it continues with the sort of fervour that it has had, I
0:22:10 > 0:22:15honestly don't know, it is hard to say. But it is clearly such a
0:22:15 > 0:22:25powerful force. This means a lot for Trump. This could be, even if it
0:22:25 > 0:22:28does not persist as a huge force for the next several years, by the time
0:22:28 > 0:22:33we reach the next election in the United States, I think the American
0:22:33 > 0:22:39woman voter quickly determine Trump's pre-election, or not. For
0:22:39 > 0:22:44him, it is such a powerful thing that I think it will emerge again in
0:22:44 > 0:22:49all kinds of different ways, including at election time.That is
0:22:49 > 0:22:54really interesting. We all remember what he said on that tape, and still
0:22:54 > 0:22:59got elected.Yes, what is important about everything to do with the
0:22:59 > 0:23:02sexual harassment scandal is awareness. Women are more aware that
0:23:02 > 0:23:06they should not accept things that some men who are in of power might
0:23:06 > 0:23:12do to them, and that is important. But it does come in waves. This is
0:23:12 > 0:23:17not the first time. We had this in Germany five or six years ago. In
0:23:17 > 0:23:20Brussels there were scandal. The question is on the ground, how much
0:23:20 > 0:23:25does it really change? I am not so optimistic about it, especially
0:23:25 > 0:23:31because of Trump. How was somebody elected who is such a misogynist?
0:23:31 > 0:23:35And now you say this could want him. I am not sure this will happen.
0:23:35 > 0:23:40Women in America have voted for him, despite his attitudes towards women.
0:23:40 > 0:23:46I don't get it. I will give you the example of Tunisia. I was told by
0:23:46 > 0:23:52the president of Tunisia, I was elected by women. Without women
0:23:52 > 0:23:59votes, I would not be president. They are very strong and they
0:23:59 > 0:24:04managed to counter radical Islamic groups. They are a power of change.
0:24:04 > 0:24:10I believe this is a good example. I think any women power should also
0:24:10 > 0:24:14look at the middle East, look at the third World and try to help. Women
0:24:14 > 0:24:18can be very perfect live as a tool of change in these parts of our
0:24:18 > 0:24:24world. I am optimistic.I think they will achieve more.Janet, are you
0:24:24 > 0:24:34optimistic? About what?! Gender change? I would agree that it comes
0:24:34 > 0:24:45in waves. In the history of gender politics in the lifetime, it is
0:24:45 > 0:24:49difficult to translate it into politics. Women do not vote as
0:24:49 > 0:24:54women, they vote as wives, partners, mothers, you know, grandmothers.
0:24:54 > 0:24:58They vote for their families. If they are working class women, they
0:24:58 > 0:25:02are more concerned to the hitting food on the table than breaking the
0:25:02 > 0:25:09glass ceiling. There is class distinction between highly educated
0:25:09 > 0:25:12women and less privileged women. I don't think this will translate into
0:25:12 > 0:25:18election will -- electoral consequences, though it may have
0:25:18 > 0:25:23very different social consequences. Happy New Year to all of you, and to
0:25:23 > 0:25:24everybody watching.
0:25:24 > 0:25:29That's it for Dateline London for now.
0:25:29 > 0:25:39Do join us again in 2018. Goodbye.