0:00:23 > 0:00:26Hello and a warm welcome to Dateline London, I'm Jane Hill.
0:00:26 > 0:00:31This week, we look at the new relations between France and the UK.
0:00:31 > 0:00:34We ask whether Germany's Mrs Merkle will get a deal to form a government
0:00:34 > 0:00:36and remain Chancellor.
0:00:36 > 0:00:38And we discuss why the Russians are getting cross with Iran.
0:00:38 > 0:00:42My guests this week:
0:00:42 > 0:00:46Mina Al Oraibi, the editor of the Abu Dhabi-based The National,
0:00:46 > 0:00:55The Times columnist David Aaronovitch,
0:00:55 > 0:00:57the author, Thomas Kielinger of Germany's Die Welt, and
0:00:57 > 0:00:59Marc Roche, former London correspondent of Le Monde,
0:00:59 > 0:01:01who now writes for the magazine Le Point.
0:01:01 > 0:01:07Welcome to you all.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09Let's discuss France and Britain, first.
0:01:09 > 0:01:12Emmanuel Macron came on his first official visit to Britain this week.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14Among the agreements reached between the French President
0:01:14 > 0:01:15and British Prime Minister?
0:01:15 > 0:01:18Theresa May committed to spending an extra £44 million on border
0:01:18 > 0:01:19security in Calais.
0:01:19 > 0:01:21France said they would lend us the Bayeux Tapestry
0:01:21 > 0:01:22in a few years' time.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24With Brexit inevitably the backdrop to this meeting,
0:01:24 > 0:01:27Mr Macron said the two countries were making a new tapestry together.
0:01:27 > 0:01:33Marc, is this the new "Entente Cordiale"?
0:01:35 > 0:01:41See what he did there? What did you make of this meeting? How did you
0:01:41 > 0:01:47read it?Well, the Bayeux Tapestry, you give a big gift for love in
0:01:47 > 0:01:50French and a small gift for friendship that's what we say in
0:01:50 > 0:01:53French. It symbolised this meeting, but a military cooperation, better
0:01:53 > 0:02:03arrangement an Calais. And fights against terrorism. The background
0:02:03 > 0:02:08was Brexit. President Macron was very clear. The usual British tactic
0:02:08 > 0:02:13is divided to rule. The EU is united. For financial service, you
0:02:13 > 0:02:17want to access the single market, you pay for it. You accept free
0:02:17 > 0:02:20movement.
0:02:22 > 0:02:28And you accept the court of justice. Of course, that is unacceptable for
0:02:28 > 0:02:35the Brexiteers in how government. Let's hope that after that
0:02:35 > 0:02:38agreement, President Macron, he's not hostile to the city, he is a
0:02:38 > 0:02:42former banker. Let's hope he will accept a bespoke agreement which is
0:02:42 > 0:02:45needed, not Norway. Something new so we can turn the page Brexit.He's
0:02:45 > 0:02:49not hostile to the city but plenty of people have sat round this table
0:02:49 > 0:02:54in the last few weeks somewhat chuckling at the way that France is
0:02:54 > 0:02:57trying to encourage British financial institutions to relocate
0:02:57 > 0:03:03to beautiful Paris.Absolutely. France isn't the only one, Frankfurt
0:03:03 > 0:03:06is doing that, Amsterdam, Dublin. The problem is, very few
0:03:06 > 0:03:11institutions will leave the city because in the end, London can
0:03:11 > 0:03:18continue to be financing Europe. Although out of the Eurozone and out
0:03:18 > 0:03:25Brexit. I dent think that'll be problem. Of all capitals, one at
0:03:25 > 0:03:30Paris? -- I don't think. Put a few banks there.Thomas.A nice French
0:03:30 > 0:03:35perspective. But to go back to the Bayeux Tapestry, it is a division
0:03:35 > 0:03:41three tactic by France. As you place this prediction on history in
0:03:41 > 0:03:46England, 1066 and all that, everyone knows not worrying about 1066, we
0:03:46 > 0:03:51are talking about 2019, 2021, that is the salient point to discuss. Why
0:03:51 > 0:04:00this Bayeux Tapestry thing? He is Marc quite right,, the biggest
0:04:00 > 0:04:03conundrum is continuing to operate 80% of British economic output
0:04:03 > 0:04:10invested in financial services.Yes. To have that all cut off, I wonder
0:04:10 > 0:04:14what price Britain will continue to pay or wants to pay, in order to
0:04:14 > 0:04:17preserve this big advantage? At the moment, to looks pretty much
0:04:17 > 0:04:26impossible. If you leave the union, the EU, you can't operate in the EU
0:04:26 > 0:04:31without passporting writes. How do you solve this conundrum? Macron
0:04:31 > 0:04:36didn't help. He kept saying in accordance with position of
0:04:36 > 0:04:39Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, you can't cherry pick, if you leave,
0:04:39 > 0:04:44you leave but I wonder if there is wiggle room. The EU is in need of
0:04:44 > 0:04:48money and Britain leaving will leave them in need of a certain amount of
0:04:48 > 0:04:53a big slice of money. If Britain were to continue to want to pay into
0:04:53 > 0:04:57the coffers of the EU, which is a small price anyway, considering the
0:04:57 > 0:05:00huge advantage of the financial markets for the British economy,
0:05:00 > 0:05:06might not Brussels reconsider this absolute adamant position? No,
0:05:06 > 0:05:16possible. If Britain is willing to cough up billion euros every year --
0:05:16 > 0:05:1911 billion euros.There are red lines of Mrs May, no court of
0:05:19 > 0:05:25justice. She said it.And Emanuel Macron has given an interview to the
0:05:25 > 0:05:29BBC this week and reiterating exactly the point that you are both
0:05:29 > 0:05:34making.We are still a couple of months away from the final deal. I
0:05:34 > 0:05:37predict certain U-turns here or there, both in Brussels and London,
0:05:37 > 0:05:45in order to not come to a cliff edge resolution of the Brexit issue,
0:05:45 > 0:05:51which would be catastrophic for Britain.What was interesting about
0:05:51 > 0:05:54Macron's visit, in addition to Brexit and the single market future,
0:05:54 > 0:05:58there was this focus on the bilateral relationship that we speak
0:05:58 > 0:06:02less of an hour. The importance of France's relationship with the UK
0:06:02 > 0:06:06and whether that is military support. -- we speak less of at the
0:06:06 > 0:06:11moment. Britain saying they will support France's efforts in Africa,
0:06:11 > 0:06:14not having troops on the ground but actually sending helicopters aboard
0:06:14 > 0:06:18and air support. It's important to show that there are areas we will
0:06:18 > 0:06:22work together on. I think the tone was important at this meeting, how
0:06:22 > 0:06:26can we get beyond the bickering and being angry at the fact that Brexit
0:06:26 > 0:06:32is happening? And trying to find points of conversions. And on the
0:06:32 > 0:06:36Bayeux Tapestry, what I think is important is looking at Macron, how
0:06:36 > 0:06:40he's forging his presidency and diplomacy. The use of cultural
0:06:40 > 0:06:44diplomacy. In Abu Dhabi we have seen that, ten years in the planning
0:06:44 > 0:06:50coming to the fore. Also, his focus on the French language, and wanting
0:06:50 > 0:06:55to project France's position. We see different western countries, whether
0:06:55 > 0:06:59it's the UK, the US and Germany in a pickle. France is saying we are
0:06:59 > 0:07:03here, strong, we will project our presence.That's interesting, did
0:07:03 > 0:07:08you read it that way the visit, David?Probably not the first to
0:07:08 > 0:07:15have coined the term Macronise. Probably someone else did it as
0:07:15 > 0:07:20well. We were Macronised.What does that mean? Cultural diplomacy?
0:07:20 > 0:07:27Certainly cultural diplomacy. Macronise understands what a lot of
0:07:27 > 0:07:32British people have forgotten, we live in an independent world. That
0:07:32 > 0:07:38interdependency would stop if we leave the European Union, it carries
0:07:38 > 0:07:41on. He had an idea about how the world might be shaped in the period
0:07:41 > 0:07:44after that happens. And there are certain things that Britain and
0:07:44 > 0:07:50France need to do together in that world. It would be a good thing to
0:07:50 > 0:07:52have good long-term relationships with Britain. But the other thing
0:07:52 > 0:07:59they emphasised, which is really sad for me, as a British person, it
0:07:59 > 0:08:02symbolised the loss of British influence in the world. It really
0:08:02 > 0:08:06did. Yes, of course, they want good relationships with us, etc, but
0:08:06 > 0:08:11there is Emanuel Macron, maybe because Angela Merkel has done her
0:08:11 > 0:08:1612 years and we will come back to her later and there might be another
0:08:16 > 0:08:20German leader. He will be shaping the continent and the world and we
0:08:20 > 0:08:23won't be. That was brought home to me. We will get the Bayeux Tapestry
0:08:23 > 0:08:28to remind ourselves, because we have decided as a country... And we have
0:08:28 > 0:08:31always been prone to this, to live with one foot in the past always.
0:08:31 > 0:08:36The French have been prone to this as well quite often. The Germans,
0:08:36 > 0:08:41with very good reasons, have made a sundering with the past.
0:08:43 > 0:08:47But we face a situation and a future whereby we won't be able to exert
0:08:47 > 0:08:51anything like so much influence about what happens.It's
0:08:51 > 0:08:55interesting, you take us neatly onto our next point, you mentioned Angela
0:08:55 > 0:08:58Merkel. This is a really fascinating weekend in that regard.
0:08:58 > 0:09:00Sunday is a crucial day for German politics
0:09:00 > 0:09:02and, some argue, for EU stability more broadly.
0:09:02 > 0:09:04Delegates from the social democrats, the SPD, will vote
0:09:04 > 0:09:07on whether to enter formal coalition talks with Chancellor Merkel's bloc.
0:09:07 > 0:09:12Nearly four months after the country's election,
0:09:12 > 0:09:15Angela Merkel has still not managed to form a government
0:09:15 > 0:09:17and many in the SPD are anxious about entering another coalition,
0:09:17 > 0:09:19given their vote was eroded in September,
0:09:19 > 0:09:24after four years as the junior partner.
0:09:28 > 0:09:32Thomas, Martin Schulz has been travelling the country
0:09:32 > 0:09:34trying to sell the idea.
0:09:34 > 0:09:40Trying to rally the support in the run-up to Sunday's vote.You have
0:09:40 > 0:09:45given a good introduction into the problems, the ten Juanma, wondering
0:09:45 > 0:09:48whether they will continue in government with Merkel and they
0:09:48 > 0:09:53might disappear from the screen -- the SPD, wondering whether. Rigging
0:09:53 > 0:09:57and Germany, if it was an ongoing concern, business, would be tied to
0:09:57 > 0:10:02issue a profit warning -- looking at Germany. Frankly about the health of
0:10:02 > 0:10:09their political culture. The problem the Conservative Party has, Merkel
0:10:09 > 0:10:14and her cohorts, they have gradually destroy conservatism in Germany for
0:10:14 > 0:10:17the purpose of forming coalitions. Getting more and more left wing,
0:10:17 > 0:10:22left of centre ideas on board to the extent that nowadays you rather have
0:10:22 > 0:10:25a situation where there's very little difference between the two
0:10:25 > 0:10:31major parties. One of the reasons we keep returning such indistinct
0:10:31 > 0:10:34election result is that people cannot differentiate between these
0:10:34 > 0:10:39two parties. They have become so much a mishmash of general ideas.
0:10:39 > 0:10:42The Conservative Party has become somewhat left of centre. The
0:10:42 > 0:10:50punishment is there. They scored 32% in the election. They are about to
0:10:50 > 0:10:53disappear, already down to 20. Latest polls say they are sinking
0:10:53 > 0:11:00evermore. The country is at a standstill, politically. It seems
0:11:00 > 0:11:05that there's nobody left to want to govern Germany in a sense. On the
0:11:05 > 0:11:11other hand, she is being administered perfectly well. The
0:11:11 > 0:11:14economy is growing and expanding. People don't feel the absence of a
0:11:14 > 0:11:18government in their daily lives at all. Which is probably an indictment
0:11:18 > 0:11:22against why do we need politicians in the first place when the
0:11:22 > 0:11:26administrators are doing the job so well for themselves. Schools are
0:11:26 > 0:11:30being taught, taxes are being collected. And all the other
0:11:30 > 0:11:33efficiencies that modern states have are in place. It is a profit
0:11:33 > 0:11:38warning. Germany is needed for future decisions to be taken about
0:11:38 > 0:11:43Europe. France wants Germany to be there.What you need, really, is a
0:11:43 > 0:11:47very strong Germany for Europe. At the moment, Emmanuel Macron is
0:11:47 > 0:11:52taking all of the weight of Europe because he is saying we needed to
0:11:52 > 0:11:57speed. But Europe doesn't want to have all this agenda taken by
0:11:57 > 0:12:03Brexit. There are other things, refugees, the crisis in the
0:12:03 > 0:12:08Eurozone, that could come back. There's a question of Poland,
0:12:08 > 0:12:12there's a question of defence. There is a question of foreigners first
0:12:12 > 0:12:17and all that. At the moment it is all blocked the main country is
0:12:17 > 0:12:21blocked politically. It is urgent Bev is a government in Germany.
0:12:21 > 0:12:26Whether it is weak or strong it doesn't matter -- there is urgency
0:12:26 > 0:12:30for a government.You called for a strong one, that is the point, I
0:12:30 > 0:12:35don't think you will see one emerge in the near future. It will be
0:12:35 > 0:12:37viable in certain functions, economic and otherwise but it won't
0:12:37 > 0:12:41be in a position to really represent the country as a whole because there
0:12:41 > 0:12:46is such a wrangling going on between the two main parties.
0:12:48 > 0:12:52This could be called keeling up's paradox, suggesting Germans want
0:12:52 > 0:12:57change but they don't want any change. They want politicians to
0:12:57 > 0:12:59suggest to change without any reality of change because actually
0:12:59 > 0:13:04their lives are very good. The danger for Europe and for others out
0:13:04 > 0:13:08of Germany in the last 30 years has essentially not be any kind of
0:13:08 > 0:13:14extremism that has been a retreat by Germany into parochialism.Stop the
0:13:14 > 0:13:19world, I want to get off!Yeah. As long as industry is working, as long
0:13:19 > 0:13:23as we have good employment and so on, we don't want to get too much
0:13:23 > 0:13:29involved in the business of how things are structured. The paradox
0:13:29 > 0:13:34is, though some people in Britain would hate it, it is required that
0:13:34 > 0:13:38Germany does step up to a leadership role in Europe. The economy. You
0:13:38 > 0:13:41can't take all the benefits of the economy of the European Union and
0:13:41 > 0:13:45then say, but we're going to leave the business of how Europe is going
0:13:45 > 0:13:48to be to be to others.That is one of the fears, there is a
0:13:48 > 0:13:51complacency, that the economy is doing fine, we don't need a
0:13:51 > 0:13:59government. It is complacency, to have weak leadership and weak
0:13:59 > 0:14:02government. It is not a K. After a while it starts to a road structures
0:14:02 > 0:14:05that people now think just ticked on as normal and that's not true. Even
0:14:05 > 0:14:08if Angela Merkel is able to form this coalition and they go ahead
0:14:08 > 0:14:10with the government, people are already talking about possibly the
0:14:10 > 0:14:13need for early elections in two years. If they have a government
0:14:13 > 0:14:16that is perceived as weak and unstable you will have elections
0:14:16 > 0:14:20within two years, it is hard to make long-term decisions. We take for
0:14:20 > 0:14:25granted the fact that we have had Merkel around since 2005.12 years!
0:14:25 > 0:14:29Four British prime ministers later and she is still here. The idea that
0:14:29 > 0:14:34stability.What do I perceive to be the development? There will come a
0:14:34 > 0:14:38time when people are so fed up with the traditional parties that there
0:14:38 > 0:14:44will be an emergence of a new party like in France. Macron showed it.
0:14:44 > 0:14:49Austria had a similar development. The current powers that be no longer
0:14:49 > 0:14:53deliver the goods, frankly. As you say, people post long, and all of
0:14:53 > 0:14:57the traditional sort of activities of daily life at all impaired, you
0:14:57 > 0:15:01have a sense that your country is not pulling its weight on the world
0:15:01 > 0:15:04stage. -- daily life is not impaired.But that is divided
0:15:04 > 0:15:10between west and east. East with a FT, the extreme right wing, which is
0:15:10 > 0:15:17a new problem in Germany. -- East with a FT.Fascinating, the vote is
0:15:17 > 0:15:20on Sunday. If that goes through it needs to go to wider membership.
0:15:20 > 0:15:25There is a long way to go and we will certainly be talking about that
0:15:25 > 0:15:28again. Let's move further afield.
0:15:28 > 0:15:32The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Muhammad Ali Jafari,
0:15:32 > 0:15:34The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari,
0:15:34 > 0:15:37declared this week that he can now drive from Tehran via Baghdad
0:15:37 > 0:15:39all the way to Beirut,which shows how successful
0:15:39 > 0:15:40Iran's involvement in Iraq and Syria has been.
0:15:40 > 0:15:43But Russia, Iran's ally, wants out of the war,
0:15:43 > 0:15:44and is far from happy.
0:15:44 > 0:15:46Mina, what's happening here?
0:15:46 > 0:15:50That's quite a boast, he was boasting.Quite a frustration for
0:15:50 > 0:15:57ordinary citizens that would never feel safe to go from Tehran by car
0:15:57 > 0:16:02and that journey. All the lives that have been lost but also all of the
0:16:02 > 0:16:05fears, whether it's kidnapping, intimidation, if anyone else tried
0:16:05 > 0:16:10to make a similar route. That says something that they control, the
0:16:10 > 0:16:13Iranian Revolutionary guard, threw themselves or proxies, the militias
0:16:13 > 0:16:18they support that they can clear the roads for them. It is very worrying.
0:16:18 > 0:16:25We talk about the importance of nation and government. If you have a
0:16:25 > 0:16:29leader of the armed wing in Iran saying they can traipse through
0:16:29 > 0:16:31these Arab countries with very little push back it is hugely
0:16:31 > 0:16:37concerning. This idea of a corridor from Iran all the way to the borders
0:16:37 > 0:16:42of Israel were things that people would talk about five or six years
0:16:42 > 0:16:46ago, nonsense, conspiracy theorists of the Arab world, but they have
0:16:46 > 0:16:49made that happen. Partly because of the fight against Isis, which was
0:16:49 > 0:16:53important. The defeat of Isis was very important for the people who
0:16:53 > 0:16:57suffered under them and also for the world to move forward. But at what
0:16:57 > 0:17:02cost in terms of what comes in its place? The vacuum should be filled
0:17:02 > 0:17:05by the national army in Iraq but in Syria, the problem continues to
0:17:05 > 0:17:12fester. While Iranian troops or militias can go through Syria and
0:17:12 > 0:17:16into Beirut, what state have we left Syria in? Whether it is the Turks
0:17:16 > 0:17:20bombing from the air certain areas, the Russian continued air campaign
0:17:20 > 0:17:23and a lack of clarity to how Syria can be put back together.
0:17:23 > 0:17:28Increasingly worrying. We talk about elections and coalitions forming, we
0:17:28 > 0:17:33see what is happening in Iraq at the moment. As we look to the elections
0:17:33 > 0:17:38in May coming up. As you have different armed groups wanting to go
0:17:38 > 0:17:42into Parliament and say that they are now valid, even though certain
0:17:42 > 0:17:44groups are considered terrorist organisations by the US and other
0:17:44 > 0:17:47entities.
0:17:48 > 0:17:52Going forward, what the world really needs to pay attention to is if you
0:17:52 > 0:17:56are having these armed groups controlled out of Tehran, what is
0:17:56 > 0:18:02the long-term strategic aim of Iran? That raises eyebrows.And what does
0:18:02 > 0:18:07the long-term strategic alliance between Iran and Russia mean? If you
0:18:07 > 0:18:10want to proceed on this route without any hindrance all the way to
0:18:10 > 0:18:16Beirut, it begs the question, what about the Russians? Do you have an
0:18:16 > 0:18:19ongoing policy agreement between those countries, what is the
0:18:19 > 0:18:22relationship between the two?It is a marriage of convenience between
0:18:22 > 0:18:26Russia and Iran and in large part in Syria. The Syrians have paid a heavy
0:18:26 > 0:18:29price for this. They continue to pay a heavy price for this. The Russians
0:18:29 > 0:18:35don't want to see Iraq and Lebanon and Syria weakened and having
0:18:35 > 0:18:38Iranians control that in the long-term, their strategic aim is
0:18:38 > 0:18:41not to have a theocracy that calls for the exporting of the revolution
0:18:41 > 0:18:44that continues to be part of Rambus my constitution. Long-term, you
0:18:44 > 0:18:50imagine they are going to hit. -- part of the Constitution. It would
0:18:50 > 0:18:55be convenient for Russia to keep the President Assad regime in check in
0:18:55 > 0:19:00Syria.Except for the Russians, the main issue is now getting the
0:19:00 > 0:19:07European sanction out. By getting out of the region and concentrating
0:19:07 > 0:19:10on trying to solve Ukraine and Crimea and all of that, you can get
0:19:10 > 0:19:14the sanction out. Election coming up for President Putin, the economy is
0:19:14 > 0:19:18not doing well, oil and commodities are quite low. They want to get out
0:19:18 > 0:19:20of that.
0:19:20 > 0:19:21This
0:19:24 > 0:19:28-- this struck me as classic hubris, would drive with a big letter X on
0:19:28 > 0:19:32his car for a start. Quite a few people would take him out from the
0:19:32 > 0:19:36air and would drone him as soon as look at him.
0:19:38 > 0:19:42Secondly, during the recent Iranian protests, one of the things that
0:19:42 > 0:19:45people were spontaneously protesting about was the amount of money and
0:19:45 > 0:19:49loss that was incurred by Iran's adventures abroad and so on. There
0:19:49 > 0:19:54is the question about its sustainability at home. One tends to
0:19:54 > 0:19:59see Iran purely as an external power but it has a very powerful set of
0:19:59 > 0:20:04internal politics, which acts as some kind of limitation to them as
0:20:04 > 0:20:09well.There were talks this week in Brussels with the focus, again, as
0:20:09 > 0:20:13we discussed many times, but the focus very much on the nuclear deal.
0:20:13 > 0:20:18That is my point, that is where other nations are focused on that,
0:20:18 > 0:20:24perhaps to the exclusion of all else.European nations.Yes.You are
0:20:24 > 0:20:27thinking the nuclear deal is nice and tidy if you are in that region.
0:20:27 > 0:20:31You rightly raise this point, saying that the nuclear deal alone fixes
0:20:31 > 0:20:37these problems is absolutely incorrect. That was one of the fatal
0:20:37 > 0:20:39mistakes of the Obama administration, they were able to
0:20:39 > 0:20:42say that the nuclear deal is separate from these other dynamics.
0:20:42 > 0:20:46But where is the money coming to allow for this military might and
0:20:46 > 0:20:52the paying of militias? Whether it is militia men from Afghanistan,
0:20:52 > 0:20:56Lebanon or Iraq, largely that came from as the sanctions were being
0:20:56 > 0:21:00lifted from the nuclear deal. It is interconnected. The big question
0:21:00 > 0:21:05going forward, people want Iran to stabilise but you have had this
0:21:05 > 0:21:11internal semi-revolt that was put down. Where the EU's position on it
0:21:11 > 0:21:14was that there are some recent events in Iran but let's talk about
0:21:14 > 0:21:20the nuclear deal. And not even putting out a voice to champion
0:21:20 > 0:21:22hundreds of people who are now in prison. Because they went down to
0:21:22 > 0:21:30protest.It is important with the new regime in Saudi Arabia and the
0:21:30 > 0:21:32modernisation going on, that now Saudi Arabia is the only
0:21:32 > 0:21:36counterweight to Iran. We should support them. I thought I would
0:21:36 > 0:21:42never say that!LAUGHTER You should always qualified when you
0:21:42 > 0:21:46do say it.But I think that Saudi Arabia is now the only counterpoint
0:21:46 > 0:21:51to Iran.But I think a lot of Arab countries in the region see the
0:21:51 > 0:21:55problems with Iran's projection of military power. People say it is
0:21:55 > 0:21:59natural, Iran is a large country to have influence. It is not influence,
0:21:59 > 0:22:03it is armed groups on the ground challenging people's ways of life.
0:22:03 > 0:22:07Saudi Arabia, yes, but you have a coalition of Arab countries that are
0:22:07 > 0:22:12together, trying to figure out how they face this and we have the
0:22:12 > 0:22:20repercussions of that. Whether it is 11 on or Iraq or Yemen.Yes.Because
0:22:20 > 0:22:23military power is being used, you get pulled into all of these losses
0:22:23 > 0:22:27that people of the region suffered. You are right in that Saudi Arabia
0:22:27 > 0:22:30can be a counterweight, but they are not alone. Many people want to say
0:22:30 > 0:22:36that as well.Power in an area which is already suffering from huge
0:22:36 > 0:22:40instability, that is not going to lead to anywhere other than making
0:22:40 > 0:22:45it more unstable than it already is. Any prediction about the Middle East
0:22:45 > 0:22:50, there is so much emerging, so much embryonic situations. What kind of
0:22:50 > 0:22:54Iraq are we going to see at the end of Isis? What kind of Syria will
0:22:54 > 0:23:00emerge? Nobody has an answer. Rejecting military power into this
0:23:00 > 0:23:06cauldron is futile.To your point about Syria...-- projecting
0:23:06 > 0:23:12military power.Still huge activity on the border in Turkey.Huge. They
0:23:12 > 0:23:15continued flow of refugees, one of the pressing things is that you see
0:23:15 > 0:23:19very few people in Europe talk about the refugee issue saying this was a
0:23:19 > 0:23:22crisis that came to your's we have to push back. Reality is that we
0:23:22 > 0:23:27have heard of a family of nine Syrians is freezing to death in
0:23:27 > 0:23:29Lebanon because they've had no support. People have continued to
0:23:29 > 0:23:36die and suffer. This crisis continues to fester. Turks also
0:23:36 > 0:23:41looking at close to 2 million, 1.5 million Syrians there and their
0:23:41 > 0:23:44future is unclear. It is humanitarian and a security risk.
0:23:44 > 0:23:48And the prospect of Turkey 's military interventions getting
0:23:48 > 0:23:52stronger against the Kurds. That could lead to another refugee crisis
0:23:52 > 0:23:55and another flow. And so on.
0:23:57 > 0:24:01It continues to fester. Again, what you want to see, we talked about
0:24:01 > 0:24:06leadership. What we really required to see in the world is a greater
0:24:06 > 0:24:10degree of foresight and leadership amongst the west and some of the
0:24:10 > 0:24:13other countries about how we're going to deal with this. It's been
0:24:13 > 0:24:18reactive.It's not Europe, the Middle East, the US is the only
0:24:18 > 0:24:22country that can do it. And at the moment the US is not there.
0:24:23 > 0:24:27Actually think that the UK and France and Germany, they play a role
0:24:27 > 0:24:31that they are uninterested. Partly because they are so caught up in
0:24:31 > 0:24:36Brexit but also thinking it is only for the US to play the role bust the
0:24:36 > 0:24:38vacuum isn't filled by US and Europe, it will be filled by Russia
0:24:38 > 0:24:43and Iran and others.Europe is afraid of the refugees, that is the
0:24:43 > 0:24:46main issue. One of the populist right wing and extreme right is
0:24:46 > 0:24:51coming from that. -- all of the populace. Europe has a tendency to
0:24:51 > 0:24:56want to leave them in Turkey which is not a solution.David is right in
0:24:56 > 0:25:00detecting a yearning for new leadership. Why are these things
0:25:00 > 0:25:05becoming so popular? I am worried about the renaissance of
0:25:05 > 0:25:08nationalism. Remember the kind of era in which he became a leader, it
0:25:08 > 0:25:13made him look strong. It was a fierce... -- he was a fierce
0:25:13 > 0:25:19antagonist. Do we want another church? Do we want the re-emergence
0:25:19 > 0:25:26of that sort of power struggle that he faced? -- another Churchill. It
0:25:26 > 0:25:29is difficult for a modern leader to burnish a profile because the world
0:25:29 > 0:25:34is so much in chaos. It is so unpredictable. He would not have
0:25:34 > 0:25:37known how to deal with these other problems we have been discussing for
0:25:37 > 0:25:39weeks and weeks.
0:25:41 > 0:25:45I hedge my bets about new leadership.In the region we have
0:25:45 > 0:25:49very interesting new leadership, especially as Mark mentioned.
0:25:51 > 0:25:56It is interesting to see how they see this need to open what is going
0:25:56 > 0:26:01on in the region.There is a good topic for another Dateline London.
0:26:01 > 0:26:07Do we need another Churchill? Thank you to all of you.
0:26:07 > 0:26:08That's it for Dateline London for now,
0:26:08 > 0:26:10we're back next week at the same time.
0:26:10 > 0:26:12Thanks for watching.
0:26:12 > 0:26:13Goodbye.