0:00:24 > 0:00:25Welcome to Dateline London.
0:00:25 > 0:00:27This week, we're discussing Theresa May in China,
0:00:27 > 0:00:30trying to increase trade before Brexit, whilst trading blows
0:00:30 > 0:00:33with the European Union, and even some of her own colleagues.
0:00:33 > 0:00:36Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union address
0:00:36 > 0:00:40at the end of his first year as US President.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42He vowed to end the era of "economic surrender in trade" -
0:00:42 > 0:00:44who does he mean?
0:00:44 > 0:00:46And is it a bad business for the Middle East if military
0:00:46 > 0:00:48leadership is on the rise again?
0:00:48 > 0:00:50With me are Bronwen Maddox, British political commentator,
0:00:50 > 0:00:55Abdel Bari Atwan, who writes on Arab affairs, Italian writer and film
0:00:55 > 0:00:57maker Anna-lisa Piras, and Stephanie Baker from Bloomberg
0:00:57 > 0:01:01Markets.
0:01:01 > 0:01:03In China, they were calling her "Auntie May",
0:01:03 > 0:01:05but back here in the UK, she's more an "Aunt Sally",
0:01:05 > 0:01:08the target in a long vanished game at whom players threw things
0:01:08 > 0:01:11in an attempt to knock it down.
0:01:11 > 0:01:14Her absence from Westminster was marked by yet another
0:01:14 > 0:01:21round of rumours suggesting time is running out for her premiership.
0:01:21 > 0:01:24There was a toy that used to be advertised with the tag
0:01:24 > 0:01:26line, "Weebles wobble but they don't fall down."
0:01:26 > 0:01:27Theresa May doesn't, either.
0:01:27 > 0:01:36Why not?
0:01:36 > 0:01:41She was there for a reason, she is one of a few figures, possibly the
0:01:41 > 0:01:44only one in the Cabinet at this point that can bridge both sides of
0:01:44 > 0:01:51Brexit. Until it serves either side to get rid of her, she is there. But
0:01:51 > 0:01:56she wasn't there this week, she was in China for three days, and it was
0:01:56 > 0:01:59kind of muted. We had been wondering whether she would use this as a
0:01:59 > 0:02:04chance to make a big, new Britain on the world stage kind of speech, and
0:02:04 > 0:02:10talk about Britain after Brexit, doing deals with countries like
0:02:10 > 0:02:15China and things like that, and she didn't quite do that. She came away
0:02:15 > 0:02:25with 9 billion of deals and she did give one speech on business but she
0:02:25 > 0:02:30didn't come out against human rights or China's behaviour in Hong Kong,
0:02:30 > 0:02:45she didn't sign up on the other hand for the big Chinese initiative. She
0:02:45 > 0:02:50gave them a bit of what they wanted and not other things and somehow it
0:02:50 > 0:02:55wasn't the great ringing vision of Britain after Brexit.A bit of a
0:02:55 > 0:03:04missed opportunity?If she wants to reassert her leadership with some
0:03:04 > 0:03:10kind of big vision of what is going to happen to Britain in the world
0:03:10 > 0:03:14after Brexit, this was the perfect occasion, so why did she not do it?
0:03:14 > 0:03:19I think she feels very uncertain herself about her future. As does
0:03:19 > 0:03:24probably the rest of the country. The big question is why she has not
0:03:24 > 0:03:29fallen yet. I think the answer is because there is no one else on the
0:03:29 > 0:03:35horizon that seems to offer a stronger leadership.That is quite
0:03:35 > 0:03:42telling that she is the strongest of the options yet the consequence of
0:03:42 > 0:03:46how the Cabinet is sword divided is that she is almost a prisoner of
0:03:46 > 0:03:50them.Definitely she is not strong enough actually to be a prominent
0:03:50 > 0:03:59leader of this country but what is the alternative, what is the morning
0:03:59 > 0:04:05after? Suppose they succeeded to remove her. I think Britain needs
0:04:05 > 0:04:10stability in this time in particular. Going to China, I think
0:04:10 > 0:04:17it was a very realistic move. You have to prepare for after Brexit. I
0:04:17 > 0:04:20know many people criticised her because she did not talk about human
0:04:20 > 0:04:26rights. You cannot actually go and look for deals with the second
0:04:26 > 0:04:30strongest economy in the world and then the lecture them about human
0:04:30 > 0:04:35rights or interfere in their internal affairs. I think she was a
0:04:35 > 0:04:43pragmatist. I think she is trying. Maybe people say she is a dead body
0:04:43 > 0:04:47or something like that, but I think the alternative would be completely
0:04:47 > 0:04:55obscure.Interesting point about the choice of going to China. We heard
0:04:55 > 0:05:00the former minister under David Cameron, her predecessor, said it
0:05:00 > 0:05:05was good that she was going to China because too many revisionist as well
0:05:05 > 0:05:09seeing -- were saying we will have deals with New Zealand and countries
0:05:09 > 0:05:14like that. China is enormous.It was a modestly successful trip. She was
0:05:14 > 0:05:30seen to be out there... I think the issue overshadowing the trip was
0:05:30 > 0:05:35this debate about is Britain in a customs union or not or doesn't have
0:05:35 > 0:05:41a bespoke customs union? The international trade Secretary said
0:05:41 > 0:05:46it wouldn't work to have the UK in a customs union with the EU because it
0:05:46 > 0:05:52would restrict written's ability to negotiate trade deals with countries
0:05:52 > 0:05:56like China. This nagging question that face Theresa May, that she has
0:05:56 > 0:06:01refused to be clear on, what is the sort of end state and what does
0:06:01 > 0:06:05Britain look like post-Brexit, it continues to dog her everywhere she
0:06:05 > 0:06:10goes. The reason why she hasn't been clear is because she's balancing
0:06:10 > 0:06:17between Brexiteers and supporters of soft Brexit, within her Cabinet and
0:06:17 > 0:06:24her own party.Other signs that perhaps some of the European
0:06:24 > 0:06:26countries are beginning to recognise the dilemma that she and the British
0:06:26 > 0:06:35government face? Perhaps there is a desire that they're going to soften
0:06:35 > 0:06:39things a bit. Is any of that going to happen when Michel Barnier
0:06:39 > 0:06:46alive... Arrives in London?I think he has been one of the main
0:06:46 > 0:06:50supporters of this kind of soft approach. Countries are starting to
0:06:50 > 0:06:58realise that Brexit will happen. Yes, there was unity, everyone was
0:06:58 > 0:07:03saying no cherry picking, no cake eating, but now countries like Italy
0:07:03 > 0:07:07should be the first to open the way to say, listen, this is going to
0:07:07 > 0:07:11happen so why don't we start being more pragmatic and realistic.
0:07:11 > 0:07:20Because the EU could lose bit as well as Britain.Yes, countries with
0:07:20 > 0:07:23a strong economic bond with the UK are starting to prepare the ground
0:07:23 > 0:07:28to say what if we actually will be allowed to have our own bespoke deal
0:07:28 > 0:07:33with the UK? There are dangers in this because the moment when
0:07:33 > 0:07:38everyone starts having a bespoke deal with the UK is the moment the
0:07:38 > 0:07:42EU collapses, and the single market cannot allow that. But there is a
0:07:42 > 0:07:46real sense that there is more pragmatism, a favour for more
0:07:46 > 0:07:51bespoke deals.I think it is right that European countries are changing
0:07:51 > 0:07:55their view but I don't think that is the message Michel Barnier will turn
0:07:55 > 0:07:59up with. I think he will be more hardline.We will no doubt be
0:07:59 > 0:08:02returning to this subject.
0:08:02 > 0:08:05The State of the Union Address brings the separation of powers
0:08:05 > 0:08:07on which US democracy is based to life in one place.
0:08:07 > 0:08:10Senators, members of the House of Representatives, and the justices
0:08:10 > 0:08:13of the Supreme Court gather to hear the President of the United States
0:08:13 > 0:08:15take the temperature of the nation and deliver his manifesto
0:08:15 > 0:08:17for the 12 months ahead.
0:08:17 > 0:08:20Donald Trump, who in so many other ways is re-defining
0:08:20 > 0:08:21what presidential means, maintained the tradition
0:08:22 > 0:08:23and stuck to the script.
0:08:23 > 0:08:25That was Tuesday.
0:08:25 > 0:08:28On Friday, it was back to the bear pit of US politics,
0:08:28 > 0:08:31as President Trump authorised release of information alleging
0:08:31 > 0:08:33the FBI had misled a judge whilst carrying out surveillance
0:08:33 > 0:08:37of his presidential election campaign.
0:08:37 > 0:08:47What is the state of the presidency right now?
0:08:53 > 0:08:58Yes, we have the full view of American cable news. It reflects the
0:08:58 > 0:09:02deep divisions across the country and in Washington which is now
0:09:02 > 0:09:08consumed with news of this memo that Trump has authorised to be
0:09:08 > 0:09:13declassified, written by Republicans on the house intelligence committee,
0:09:13 > 0:09:19accusing the FBI and the Justice department of misleading a federal
0:09:19 > 0:09:24judge in their application to spy on Carter Page, a former Trump campaign
0:09:24 > 0:09:30operative. The FBI director and justice department officials fought
0:09:30 > 0:09:35against the release of this memo, saying that the memo cherry picked
0:09:35 > 0:09:39information and presented a skewed picture of how they went about
0:09:39 > 0:09:45getting permission to carry out surveillance on Carter Page. I think
0:09:45 > 0:09:51the issue here is you now have this unprecedented situation where the
0:09:51 > 0:09:57White House is basically at war with its own justice department and its
0:09:57 > 0:10:04hand-picked FBI director. Trump picked Christopher Ray, the FBI
0:10:04 > 0:10:07director, he picked Jeff Sessions and Rod Rosenstein.And they'll came
0:10:07 > 0:10:13in after the election so they can't be blamed.We haven't seen a split
0:10:13 > 0:10:25like this since the Nixon era, Watergate, really. And so people are
0:10:25 > 0:10:30saying it is trying to undermine the FBI and the Russian investigation,
0:10:30 > 0:10:36whether Trump's campaign colluded with Russia. The Republicans are
0:10:36 > 0:10:40saying it shows that there FBI is politicised and cannot be trusted.
0:10:40 > 0:10:44It is remarkable that you have the Republican Party, the party of law
0:10:44 > 0:10:49and order, attacking the intelligence agencies and feeding
0:10:49 > 0:10:57into this conspiracy theory. The memo doesn't show that the FBI
0:10:57 > 0:11:02cannot respond without revealing sources and methods. They can't say
0:11:02 > 0:11:11they didn't just rely on this dossier written by a former British
0:11:11 > 0:11:21spy, which had been paid for by the Democratic party. Because they would
0:11:21 > 0:11:29reveal sources and methods. The FBI got intelligence from British and
0:11:29 > 0:11:33Dutch intelligence agencies and that started the FBI investigation into
0:11:33 > 0:11:44Russia. And as a result of another Trump campaign operative George
0:11:44 > 0:11:52Papadopoulos. Carter Page had been under the FBI's watch three years.
0:11:52 > 0:12:03-- four years -- for a number of years. I think it is disheartening.
0:12:03 > 0:12:06The Democrats want to release their own memo in response. When I read
0:12:06 > 0:12:13this memo I asked is that it? It is three and a half pages. I later read
0:12:13 > 0:12:22that James Qaumi thought the same thing. It is pretty thin stuff. --
0:12:22 > 0:12:24James McAvoy one.It
0:12:35 > 0:12:42cut the president could change the narrative.Nothing about this is
0:12:42 > 0:12:49good for him. There is less in this particular memo then you might
0:12:49 > 0:12:55think. He needs to get the focus onto the economy, wages, jobs. It is
0:12:55 > 0:12:59interesting that at first he was quick presidential at the state of
0:12:59 > 0:13:06the union address. We had about 48 hours and then all of this descends.
0:13:06 > 0:13:14This is the normality for the Trump presidency. The constant fighting.
0:13:14 > 0:13:20The Republicans are broadly taken his side on this. So it is not going
0:13:20 > 0:13:24to split them away from them coming up to them at the elections, they
0:13:24 > 0:13:28are not come to try to distance themselves from this very unusual
0:13:28 > 0:13:34president. And so there is all that. There is nothing about Trump and
0:13:34 > 0:13:40Russia that is good for Trump.It is midterm elections in the US.
0:13:40 > 0:13:45Everything must be seen through the prism of the party battle.
0:13:45 > 0:13:4815 years ago, as the drum beat of war beat louder ahead
0:13:48 > 0:13:50of the US-led invasion of Iraq, the then US President
0:13:50 > 0:13:53and British Prime Minister hoped it would be a catalyst for change
0:13:53 > 0:13:56in the Middle East, that their model of democracy was what ordinary
0:13:56 > 0:13:57people were hungering for.
0:13:57 > 0:13:59Seven years ago came the Arab Spring, a wave
0:13:59 > 0:14:01of protests that dislodged some of the long-standing dictators,
0:14:01 > 0:14:03including those who seemed to still be wearing uniforms
0:14:03 > 0:14:09under their civilian suits.
0:14:09 > 0:14:11Are the military men stealthily returning to power,
0:14:11 > 0:14:21or did they never go away?
0:14:21 > 0:14:26The Middle East is a huge mess nowadays. The people now are really
0:14:26 > 0:14:33starving. The problem is when the people seven years ago went into the
0:14:33 > 0:14:38streets they were looking for democracy, human rights, equality,
0:14:38 > 0:14:43fighting corruption. Now the Middle East is completely different. If you
0:14:43 > 0:14:48look at Egypt, a major country in the Middle East, now it is ruled by
0:14:48 > 0:15:03a dictator, a military dictator. Until the closing hours of the
0:15:03 > 0:15:06election, one hour before that, he managed to find an opponent for the
0:15:06 > 0:15:14elections.Making the point that for democracy elections are necessary
0:15:14 > 0:15:20but not sufficient in themselves.He is looking for a scarecrow. The
0:15:20 > 0:15:27reaction among the people is very muted. You cannot see a very
0:15:27 > 0:15:34aggressive reaction. Why? 40% of the people in the Middle East are under
0:15:34 > 0:15:40the poverty line. Less than $2 per day. People are looking for food.
0:15:40 > 0:15:48Seven years ago we witnessed an Arab Spring for democracy. Now we are
0:15:48 > 0:15:58actually on the edge of a hunger spring. People will revolt for food.
0:15:58 > 0:16:07The entire area, everything seems to be going really badly wrong. There
0:16:07 > 0:16:11are a number of interlocked and interconnected crises which are
0:16:11 > 0:16:16going to degenerate in the years to come. That is why it is very very
0:16:16 > 0:16:20urgent in my view, and it is a subject of a film I have spent some
0:16:20 > 0:16:24time on for the past two years, to pay more attention to the global
0:16:24 > 0:16:28strategy of the EU, because what we need to do is stop looking country
0:16:28 > 0:16:34by country and try to have a strategy for the region. What has
0:16:34 > 0:16:40happened in Tunisia has been interesting. There has been massive
0:16:40 > 0:16:46investment in civil society and especially in women. People spoke of
0:16:46 > 0:16:50Tunisia as the one bright spot in the Arab Spring. There is not the
0:16:50 > 0:16:55same kind of strategy for the rest of the region. So we see the
0:16:55 > 0:17:01multiple collision of sectarian violence.To Lizzie was a successful
0:17:01 > 0:17:06example but what can you do if your neighbour is Libya for example? A
0:17:06 > 0:17:09failed state and a lot of militias fighting each other. And when you
0:17:09 > 0:17:17have a million unemployed people, Libya used to absorb 50% of them,
0:17:17 > 0:17:23now half of weddings are outside their country looking for jobs. --
0:17:23 > 0:17:35half of Libyans.The European Union has proposed strategies but
0:17:35 > 0:17:39countries are competing with each other, having diverging economic
0:17:39 > 0:17:44interests and so you could perpetrate chaos like in Libya.It
0:17:44 > 0:17:51is not like the region has been without European and American
0:17:51 > 0:17:57attention for years. It might not thank us for that attention. You
0:17:57 > 0:18:00have the economic unravelling you have described, which with all the
0:18:00 > 0:18:04consequences of hunger and migration and all these things. And you have a
0:18:04 > 0:18:10lot of sectarian conflict, one group against another, which demonstrates
0:18:10 > 0:18:15how hard it is to stop the winner taking it all.The economy needs
0:18:15 > 0:18:23stability. If you have at least five failed states in the Middle East, a
0:18:23 > 0:18:28war in Yemen, Libya, Syria, how can you have proper economic growth and
0:18:28 > 0:18:35find jobs for people? This is the dilemma. And so they need to promote
0:18:35 > 0:18:40peace before economy or anything else. You need the infrastructure
0:18:40 > 0:18:46for the economy to be established. If you compare Egypt and to Lizzie,
0:18:46 > 0:18:52you can compare the Western response to both countries. Tunisia has
0:18:52 > 0:18:55embraced democracy and elections more forcefully. It struggled much
0:18:55 > 0:19:01more economically. It has been supported by the IMF. But the
0:19:01 > 0:19:07conditions imposed by the IMF on the loans have resulted in austerity
0:19:07 > 0:19:13which has resulted in widespread drug test and violence. The Western
0:19:13 > 0:19:20-- widespread protests. The Western response is different in Egypt. I
0:19:20 > 0:19:26don't think Obama was effective in his strategy at Trump is perhaps
0:19:26 > 0:19:32making it worse. Abandoning US policy towards promoting human
0:19:32 > 0:19:42rights. The Egyptian leader has used the war on terror for as excuse for
0:19:42 > 0:19:52his crackdown. And you have Western leaders either saying nothing in the
0:19:52 > 0:19:57face of this, or present Trump calling him a fantastic guy.What
0:19:57 > 0:20:02about other countries like Lebanon and Iraq, which are democracies and
0:20:02 > 0:20:12arguably have a stronger democracy? We have to make crucial elections,
0:20:12 > 0:20:16one in Iraq and one in Lebanon. The backbone of this thing is
0:20:16 > 0:20:22sectarianism. These societies are divided. Civil society is actually
0:20:22 > 0:20:32deteriorating. A positive note about Tunisia, as I am the only man at
0:20:32 > 0:20:36this panel, I would like to say that the woman into his ear actually
0:20:36 > 0:20:43played a major role to keep civil society. I met the president of to
0:20:43 > 0:20:48Lizzie and he told me that he is here because of women. -- the
0:20:48 > 0:20:56president of Tunisia.He got a rough ride a few days ago because of the
0:20:56 > 0:21:01levels of poverty you were talking about. You were plugged into the
0:21:01 > 0:21:04foreign policy thinking in the early part of the century with Blair and
0:21:04 > 0:21:11Bush. They were convinced that if people were given the Western model
0:21:11 > 0:21:14of democracy they would jump at it. Is it possible there are parts of
0:21:14 > 0:21:18the world where people feel more confident in strong leaders however
0:21:18 > 0:21:23unattractive they become?It depends what state they are in. If their
0:21:23 > 0:21:27country is in turmoil, a failed state, no food, maybe they might say
0:21:27 > 0:21:31that. I haven't come across many places in the world where people
0:21:31 > 0:21:37wouldn't want democracy if it was going to lead to a better life. You
0:21:37 > 0:21:41take Iraq. This seems to be the mistake that Tony Blair and George
0:21:41 > 0:21:46Bush made. With a lot of the American foreign policy behind them,
0:21:46 > 0:21:51they thought that bringing democracy in Iraq would be fine, it would look
0:21:51 > 0:21:54something like American democracy, and what he got was a winner takes
0:21:54 > 0:22:01all. You got the Shia majority who had been suppressed under Saddam
0:22:01 > 0:22:05Hussein suddenly finding they are in the majority, running the
0:22:05 > 0:22:18government, and they then clamped down on the Sunni minority.What
0:22:18 > 0:22:28about the model in Lebanon were you say sectarianism is here and it is
0:22:28 > 0:22:31real but they force power-sharing with all elements represented.If
0:22:31 > 0:22:38you can, it is great. But it is so hard to get stable power-sharing.
0:22:38 > 0:22:40Look at Northern Ireland, which doesn't at the moment have a
0:22:40 > 0:22:48government. If you cannot, it you have to say the thrust of the policy
0:22:48 > 0:22:51in the last few decades is to separate people who can't stand each
0:22:51 > 0:22:58other.That would be rewriting the map.Sectarianism is the most
0:22:58 > 0:23:03dangerous concept in our part of the world. It is how Islamic State,
0:23:03 > 0:23:13Isis, emerged, because of Sikh Tyrian Iraq. -- sectarian Iraq. We
0:23:13 > 0:23:21have to give stronger roles to the woman, to Lizzie and success can
0:23:21 > 0:23:29apply to other places. -- Tunisian success.In Libya there has been a
0:23:29 > 0:23:35very positive outcome in investing in local administrations in civil
0:23:35 > 0:23:42society. You are right in saying that we shouldn't find that good
0:23:42 > 0:23:46idea of redrawing borders. You should remember that those borders
0:23:46 > 0:23:52were drawn very artificially at the end of the Second World War.And
0:23:52 > 0:23:58some of the other countries in the Middle East at the end of the First
0:23:58 > 0:24:05World War.Local administrations, civil society, these are things that
0:24:05 > 0:24:10need to be invested and much much more.It is hard from what you were
0:24:10 > 0:24:19saying that now, whatever lessons the could have taken from the
0:24:19 > 0:24:28neo-con area in Washington, they have to roll up their sleeves.Trump
0:24:28 > 0:24:31hasn't even appointed a permanent Undersecretary of State for human
0:24:31 > 0:24:38rights. There is just an acting woman in place there now. His
0:24:38 > 0:24:42message has been consistently that his main concern is security and not
0:24:42 > 0:24:48democracy or human rights. What message does that send and how does
0:24:48 > 0:24:55it encourage leaders to act? You can say it is not like he is giving
0:24:55 > 0:25:00blanket permission in Egypt for a crackdown, but those messages do
0:25:00 > 0:25:05count. They realise that if there is no application for the actions they
0:25:05 > 0:25:11take, they feel a licence to go ahead.The problem is that American
0:25:11 > 0:25:17policy is a huge shambles. Trump's speech, he said, we will destabilise
0:25:17 > 0:25:23Iran. We are going to keep our forces in that part of the world, we
0:25:23 > 0:25:30are going to stick to moving our embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He
0:25:30 > 0:25:34is upsetting most of the people. How can you have a stable Middle East
0:25:34 > 0:25:41while the biggest and strongest power has no human policy?Thank you
0:25:41 > 0:25:45all very much and thank you for being with us.
0:25:45 > 0:25:47Please do join us again next week, same time, same place.
0:25:47 > 0:25:51But for now thanks for watching, and goodbye.