0:00:28 > 0:00:30Hello and a very warm welcome to Dateline London.
0:00:30 > 0:00:34I'm Jane Hill,
0:00:34 > 0:00:36today we look at some very tough talking in this
0:00:36 > 0:00:39week's Brexit moves -
0:00:39 > 0:00:46We wonder how long President Zuma can survive in South Africa?
0:00:46 > 0:00:48and as the Winter Olympics kick off,
0:00:48 > 0:00:49what diplomatic benefits could follow the
0:00:49 > 0:00:50sporting endeavours?
0:00:50 > 0:00:52My guests - The Times columnist Iain Martin,
0:00:52 > 0:00:54and the American writer Jef Mcallister, Agnes Poirer
0:00:54 > 0:00:56of France's Marianne magazine, and Nesrine Malik, now a columnist
0:00:56 > 0:00:57for the Guardian newspaper.
0:00:57 > 0:01:07Welcome to you all.
0:01:10 > 0:01:12The EU is having some problems understanding the UK's position.
0:01:12 > 0:01:15The Chief Negotiator Barnier didn't pull his punches on Friday
0:01:15 > 0:01:17at the end of a week of technical discussions in Brussels.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20He said a transition period once Britain leaves the EU
0:01:20 > 0:01:23next year isn't a given, and that the UK decision to quit
0:01:23 > 0:01:25the customs union and single market means Irish border
0:01:25 > 0:01:26checks are unavoidable.
0:01:26 > 0:01:31The British cabinet minister in charge of talks, David Davis,
0:01:31 > 0:01:33said he was "surprised" by such comments after all the
0:01:33 > 0:01:34work that's gone on.
0:01:34 > 0:01:44Iain, what is happening?
0:01:44 > 0:01:48In the's attempted to leave the European Union, and the Brits have
0:01:48 > 0:01:53always been really good at comedy and forests. Viewers will be
0:01:53 > 0:02:02familiar with Monty Python. The Cabinet is split. It doesn't yet
0:02:02 > 0:02:06have an agreed negotiating position in terms of what it wants to ask the
0:02:06 > 0:02:14European Union for in March when the next round of talks begin. Which is
0:02:14 > 0:02:16obviously troubling the European Union. The European Union has its
0:02:16 > 0:02:22own problems as well, there are a lot of moving parts in this. It's
0:02:22 > 0:02:28turning almost into a crisis. But it is happening. It almost one year to
0:02:28 > 0:02:33go until Brexit. I suspect there will be some deal at some point.
0:02:33 > 0:02:38Britain is not doing its reputation for diplomatic skill any good at the
0:02:38 > 0:02:43moment, and it seems bizarre that this close to Brexit the Cabinet and
0:02:43 > 0:02:46Prime Minister, who is of course under a lot of pressure, and under
0:02:46 > 0:02:52pressure from some conservatives to go, don't yet know that they what
0:02:52 > 0:02:56sort of relationship they want with the European union have to words.
0:02:56 > 0:03:02And you think that is still the genuine case inside the cabinet? Or
0:03:02 > 0:03:07they don't want to reveal their hand to the public or anyone in Brussels.
0:03:07 > 0:03:10Despite the fact we have this cabinet meeting where some of these
0:03:10 > 0:03:15things were thrashed out recently, they just can't reach agreement?We
0:03:15 > 0:03:19have to be careful of exaggerating that, because the cabinet has moved
0:03:19 > 0:03:23a long way since the Brexit referendum in 20 months ago, so the
0:03:23 > 0:03:29eye agreed that the UK is leaving the European Union and single
0:03:29 > 0:03:32market, it has to leave the customs union, because that is in the
0:03:32 > 0:03:35European treaty. There is an argument about what nature of free
0:03:35 > 0:03:40trade agreement they should try and seek with the EU and if the EU will
0:03:40 > 0:03:45allow UK to have such a deal. The primary sticking point is customs
0:03:45 > 0:03:50arrangements and whether the UK signs a replacement for existing
0:03:50 > 0:03:54customs union, something like Turkey has, because Turkey is a member of
0:03:54 > 0:03:59the different customs union with the EU, or whether the UK tries to do it
0:03:59 > 0:04:09all with a free trade agreement. You would expect by now there are to be
0:04:09 > 0:04:17a clear position on that, but as I said, they have moved a long way.
0:04:17 > 0:04:21The UK is leaving for probably a much harder Brexit than might have
0:04:21 > 0:04:26been the case a year or a year and a half ago, so it has having a more
0:04:26 > 0:04:31pure Brexit. On that final sticking point, the customs union, that could
0:04:31 > 0:04:35be where there is a lot of parliamentary fireworks over the
0:04:35 > 0:04:40course of the next six months. That might be where MPs, because remember
0:04:40 > 0:04:45that Theresa May does not have a majority at, or only a majority with
0:04:45 > 0:04:50the help of the minority party, that might be where rebellion of MPs
0:04:50 > 0:04:56brings the whole thing clashing down.
0:04:56 > 0:04:58Agnes, seems some in the EU are considering changes
0:04:58 > 0:05:01to the Brexit schedule?
0:05:01 > 0:05:09It is nice to hear you who are in favour of Brexit.Yes, very much.I
0:05:09 > 0:05:14wish you were doing the negotiation, actually.We could put him forward.
0:05:14 > 0:05:21You were talking about a comedic forests, and I will try not to
0:05:21 > 0:05:27laugh, because I keep getting e-mails from people saying," stop
0:05:27 > 0:05:34laughing whenever Brexit is mentioned." Be pragmatic and
0:05:34 > 0:05:41likeable Brexiteers but I know... On the other hand, you can understand
0:05:41 > 0:05:45were at the British Government is doing and some Brexiteers like Jacob
0:05:45 > 0:05:50Rees Mogg do so badly for the image of Britain because friends of
0:05:50 > 0:05:58Britain make me on the continent don't understand what is going on,
0:05:58 > 0:06:03really. One day we are Burmese to, another day we are laughing our
0:06:03 > 0:06:09heads off, and then we are in despair. -- bemused. I think Jeremy
0:06:09 > 0:06:14Corbyn would do such a better job than Theresa May in terms of
0:06:14 > 0:06:24negotiating Brexit, the cops he is a Eurosceptic and a Brexiteer. He
0:06:24 > 0:06:29long-stay party that is pro-European, but he would do such a
0:06:29 > 0:06:35better job. I admire Michel Barnier in Brussels because they are keeping
0:06:35 > 0:06:42their cool. If we look back at December, Brussels helped Theresa
0:06:42 > 0:06:51May saved face. They said OK, this is fine, EU citizens will retain
0:06:51 > 0:06:56their rates during the transition period, we all move on to start
0:06:56 > 0:07:03negotiating trade deals in March." Which is again if we don't belong to
0:07:03 > 0:07:12the customs union, then you need a hard border.Brussels, ironically,
0:07:12 > 0:07:16Jean-Claude Juncker did intervene to rescue Theresa May and the British
0:07:16 > 0:07:21position, but it is worth asking why that happened? A lot of that was to
0:07:21 > 0:07:25do with pressure from German industry. A lot of that was to do
0:07:25 > 0:07:31with pressure from Jean-Claude Juncker, who is of course a former
0:07:31 > 0:07:34Prime Minister of Luxembourg, which is essentially an offshoot of the
0:07:34 > 0:07:38City of London. There are other things happening in European
0:07:38 > 0:07:47politics. Germany doesn't have a Government.And is... Michel Barnier
0:07:47 > 0:07:50and John called younger, I'd be keeping their cool or idea
0:07:50 > 0:07:57deliberately so trying to remind people that time is running out?
0:07:57 > 0:08:04Michel Barnier and Jean-Claude Juncker, I they keeping their cool
0:08:04 > 0:08:07or are they deliberately trying to remind people that time is running
0:08:07 > 0:08:15out?The Japanese trade senior executives who went to Downing
0:08:15 > 0:08:19Street this week, for them to put their heads above the parapet the
0:08:19 > 0:08:24way Japanese businessmen work, to interfere unhappy because they
0:08:24 > 0:08:28produce because that Britain makes and half of those get exported to
0:08:28 > 0:08:32Europe and if this goes to a non-European Union arrangement,
0:08:32 > 0:08:35those are a temper sent out at least and some of these points move across
0:08:35 > 0:08:40the Channel three times before the end up in the car and you can see
0:08:40 > 0:08:45how unbelievably difficult it is. Gary Younge said the Brexiteers I
0:08:45 > 0:08:48like the dog that chased the car and finally caught it. They don't really
0:08:48 > 0:08:57know what to do. They cannot drive it. I feel that all this wrangling
0:08:57 > 0:09:02when you're facing an entity when 27 countries each can veto what ever
0:09:02 > 0:09:06they come up with. Even if German manufacturing wants Elizabeth Morton
0:09:06 > 0:09:15leeway, now they can get that. I just don't see this working out.
0:09:15 > 0:09:19It's a Michael shisha. One of the main thing is that the European
0:09:19 > 0:09:26Union wants and needs to have because its budget runs up to 2020
0:09:26 > 0:09:33and the UK as the second-largest contributor pays £10 billion a year.
0:09:33 > 0:09:4210 billion...It is a significant amount. You try at skiing German
0:09:42 > 0:09:47electors at the moment to stump up an extra £20 billion because the UK
0:09:47 > 0:09:50doesn't get Canadian. I think it will happen, I am acknowledging that
0:09:50 > 0:09:58the Brits are making a mess of it. The British system is like a school.
0:09:58 > 0:10:03When you know the headteacher has lost control and has no authority,
0:10:03 > 0:10:09there is complete medal and chaos amongst pupils. That is why
0:10:09 > 0:10:14advocated street after she lost her majority that the UK needed a new
0:10:14 > 0:10:18Prime Minister, someone to set a clear direction. I think there will
0:10:18 > 0:10:26be a deal, but it is a mess.That is enough Brexit for now. Plenty more
0:10:26 > 0:10:29to come in future weeks, thank you very much.
0:10:29 > 0:10:31Much to many people's surprise, Jacob Zuma
0:10:31 > 0:10:34is still President of South Africa.
0:10:34 > 0:10:37He has refused to resign, and hand over to Cyril Ramaphosa,
0:10:37 > 0:10:39despite repeated requests from senior ANC officials -
0:10:39 > 0:10:41the parliament took the highly unusual step this week of postponing
0:10:41 > 0:10:44the annual State of the Union address, worried about
0:10:44 > 0:10:45protests and disruption.
0:10:45 > 0:10:47Jacob Zuma has always denied the numerous charges
0:10:47 > 0:10:57of corruption against him.
0:11:02 > 0:11:04Nesrine, you watch these things closely, how much
0:11:04 > 0:11:09longer can he cling on?
0:11:09 > 0:11:14I am surprised he has been challenged, because it looked like
0:11:14 > 0:11:21until recently, he wasn't going to go away, because he had so much
0:11:21 > 0:11:25invested historical legitimacy of the ANC. He has been at it for
0:11:25 > 0:11:28decades and there were not other figures I could match his historical
0:11:28 > 0:11:43status. People feel that he shouldn't just go, he should be held
0:11:43 > 0:11:45accountable for crimes and corruption. There is another school
0:11:45 > 0:11:50that thinks we don't want to have egg on the face of the ANC. This is
0:11:50 > 0:11:56a man who thinks that the entire anti-apartheid regime was invested
0:11:56 > 0:12:04and should be allowed to go in dignity. He was caught in between
0:12:04 > 0:12:09and does not want to be tainted by him, but also does not want to look
0:12:09 > 0:12:13like he completely cutting links with the history of the ANC. It is
0:12:13 > 0:12:20less about him and more about history of post-apartheid black led
0:12:20 > 0:12:26politics in South Africa and how people don't want it to be sullied
0:12:26 > 0:12:32as a failed experiment of corruption and how other people want it to be,
0:12:32 > 0:12:37you know, a bat on should be passed seamlessly and effort but play.
0:12:37 > 0:12:41Jacob Zuma knows all of this and he is sitting tight hoping that he can
0:12:41 > 0:12:45negotiate the best deal, his salary and pension and not give up any of
0:12:45 > 0:12:50the perks and benefits. What ultimately happens to him depends on
0:12:50 > 0:12:55which one of these factions wins and which Cyril Ramaphosa believes is
0:12:55 > 0:13:05best for his leadership going forward.There have been so many
0:13:05 > 0:13:09allegations of corruption for so many years. Where are the voices
0:13:09 > 0:13:16saying, "This is tarnishing the brand?"They are there and they feel
0:13:16 > 0:13:20that for the ANC to be able to break with this tarnished past there needs
0:13:20 > 0:13:27to be accountability, but, like I said earlier, there is also another
0:13:27 > 0:13:32defensive group, which I kind of understand, that thinks, "It's
0:13:32 > 0:13:35corruption, but it is our corruption, and we need to make it
0:13:35 > 0:13:39go away quietly and not give other people the chance to weaponised
0:13:39 > 0:13:46Jacob Zuma's corruption against the ANC."1's corruption set into
0:13:46 > 0:13:50institutions like this, he is not the only one taking money and
0:13:50 > 0:13:53usually there are genes and it's certainly very top. Assuming he
0:13:53 > 0:13:58doesn't get into power, there are institutions fighting corruption and
0:13:58 > 0:14:07it is a complicated country. They are all trying to make it clean, but
0:14:07 > 0:14:13I think it is Quinn to be very difficult after the long history of
0:14:13 > 0:14:17corruption for the next person, not just for historic reasons, but
0:14:17 > 0:14:24because argued with their hands out. Think that is what Cyril Ramaphosa's
0:14:24 > 0:14:27problem is now, because he doesn't want to make it look like he is
0:14:27 > 0:14:30sanctioning this system, which doesn't begin and end with Jacob
0:14:30 > 0:14:35Zuma, but at the same time, he doesn't want to rattle the
0:14:35 > 0:14:38infrastructure of corruption which exists. He doesn't want to make it
0:14:38 > 0:14:46look like... It reminds me of the transition in Angola when he left
0:14:46 > 0:14:50his position and handed off to other people and Meacher that this network
0:14:50 > 0:14:57of patronage and corruption... It is a system of patronage and made sure
0:14:57 > 0:15:03it existed so he could still maintain his interests. This network
0:15:03 > 0:15:08exists in business, economy, it is one of the reasons why South African
0:15:08 > 0:15:11economy is in such dire straits and has been presented long time is
0:15:11 > 0:15:16because there is this cabal of business interests.Also be trade
0:15:16 > 0:15:24unions. The most troubling aspect of this is the economic component. Just
0:15:24 > 0:15:29look at the numbers, unemployment above 25%, looking at the living
0:15:29 > 0:15:37standards that have gone backwards. If you get this tainted it happens,
0:15:37 > 0:15:41then we all have to hope it makes some kind of difference. He is still
0:15:41 > 0:15:45going to be a former trade unionist and businessman himself, he is still
0:15:45 > 0:15:51going to be a creature of those interests. Trade unions are
0:15:51 > 0:15:55extremely powerful. The Communist party of South Africa is a very
0:15:55 > 0:16:00powerful Communist of that coalition holding it all together. South
0:16:00 > 0:16:05Africa needs radical economic reform, market-driven reforms that
0:16:05 > 0:16:08encourage foreign investment, it needs reform of its political system
0:16:08 > 0:16:14so that you have stability and the rule of law and corruption is driven
0:16:14 > 0:16:21out. The may well get office, but good luck to him in terms of
0:16:21 > 0:16:29changing that.Does that benefit the people, the politicians? -- the
0:16:29 > 0:16:33population.What will it take when you look at those economic numbers
0:16:33 > 0:16:38and corruption and the cronies and those built into the economy. What
0:16:38 > 0:16:42will it take for voters to try something different? One of the
0:16:42 > 0:16:47lessons of global politics in the last few years is people when
0:16:47 > 0:16:51tested, strings things can happen and new forces can emerge and I just
0:16:51 > 0:16:55wonder if South Africa is one of those places where they might.The
0:16:55 > 0:17:00problem with the ANC is it is sort of like the Muslim Brotherhood in
0:17:00 > 0:17:04the Arab world, they have spent so much time in opposition that once
0:17:04 > 0:17:10the establishment was overthrown there is nothing else. There aren't
0:17:10 > 0:17:14many people that associate of the ANC with anti-apartheid opposition.
0:17:14 > 0:17:20It will take a long time for another party to develop. It is a long
0:17:20 > 0:17:24history of apartheid and who was in opposition at the time.I don't see
0:17:24 > 0:17:33Jacob Zuma ever going to jail because of that because he is such a
0:17:33 > 0:17:38Smith operator. The next election as next year and the heartbeat is
0:17:38 > 0:17:43really for Cyril Ramaphosa and he is going to negotiate something. They
0:17:43 > 0:17:54are outsmarting each other, but in the end...Thank you.
0:17:54 > 0:17:56stadium in PyeongChang, as athletes from North
0:17:57 > 0:17:59There were huge cheers from the crowd in the Olympic
0:17:59 > 0:18:01stadium in PyeongChang, as athletes from North
0:18:01 > 0:18:04and South Korea arrived under one flag during the opening ceremony
0:18:04 > 0:18:05of the Winter games.
0:18:05 > 0:18:07Now, as the sporting competition is under way,
0:18:07 > 0:18:10the North's Kim Jong Un has invited the South Korean President Moon
0:18:10 > 0:18:15Jae-in for talks in Pyongyang - it would be the first meeting
0:18:15 > 0:18:17of Korean leaders in more than ten years.
0:18:17 > 0:18:23Jef, how should we read this invitation?
0:18:23 > 0:18:29Why not? It is pretty interesting. For the Nord, it is a no-brainer.
0:18:29 > 0:18:34They have their nuclear weapons, the hydrogen bomb, the nuclear vessels
0:18:34 > 0:18:39that continue to fly, why not appear to be magnanimous? Why not make it
0:18:39 > 0:18:42harder for a Donald Trump to do the bloody nose attack that Washington
0:18:42 > 0:18:48keep stocking about? Why not divide South Korea from Washington and
0:18:48 > 0:18:52Japan? It is a skilful thing and doesn't cost anything. Trump might
0:18:52 > 0:18:58try to take credit in his way. I have been rattling my Sabre and know
0:18:58 > 0:19:02something is happening, let's see what happens. That is the deal-maker
0:19:02 > 0:19:07of Donald Trump, and in fact there is no solution to the North Korea
0:19:07 > 0:19:11problem, they have the weapons, they are not giving them up. There are a
0:19:11 > 0:19:16lot of voices in Washington that understand this, but I think that
0:19:16 > 0:19:21makes as much harder for him to try anything radical. Even if Mike Pens
0:19:21 > 0:19:27is saying it is an evil regime and we have to fight, fight, fight.Mike
0:19:27 > 0:19:34pence looked particularly uncomfortable during that opening
0:19:34 > 0:19:39ceremony, didn't he?I have to say, I am always very sceptical when the
0:19:39 > 0:19:44Olympics and the IOC get involved in a political story. It's one of the
0:19:44 > 0:19:53most political and questionable... Is the IOC anything to do with this?
0:19:53 > 0:19:57North Korea will not listen to Donald Trump, but they will listen
0:19:57 > 0:20:00to the IOC. LAUGHTER
0:20:00 > 0:20:05If you look at the political rhetoric at the opening, they even
0:20:05 > 0:20:15had John Lennon's imagine at the opening ceremony, I am weary of it
0:20:15 > 0:20:19having a little impact. I think it is ultimately about the sport and I
0:20:19 > 0:20:24am not a great fan of winter sports, but like what people, you do get
0:20:24 > 0:20:28sucked into watching this extraordinary display of people you
0:20:28 > 0:20:32have never heard of watching these amazing sports. It is somehow
0:20:32 > 0:20:36captivating, but I do think there is a legitimate claim that Donald Trump
0:20:36 > 0:20:41can make about the fact that he has kept the North Koreans guessing. It
0:20:41 > 0:20:47does seem to have created some sort of movement. It that it has
0:20:47 > 0:20:51encouraged the north Koreans to do do something, as you suggest, to do
0:20:51 > 0:20:57something to their advantage. Its movement that hasn't been made
0:20:57 > 0:21:05before.The Senate has been making movement, bring this to our nation.
0:21:05 > 0:21:09This man was elected partly on a platform of trying to engage a
0:21:09 > 0:21:19little more. -- the cap back says. We think of them as very different,
0:21:19 > 0:21:22but they are not as completely alienate it from each other as
0:21:22 > 0:21:30people think. There are families split across the two countries. It's
0:21:30 > 0:21:34not what you would expect. People assume that the South Korean
0:21:34 > 0:21:40population is threatened and annoyed by this North Korean neighbour, but
0:21:40 > 0:21:45it is sort of scene...If they are threatened and annoyed by the North
0:21:45 > 0:21:49Korean regime, if you look at the number of people at risk of a North
0:21:49 > 0:21:54Korean attack, that is what really drives people there, the idea of
0:21:54 > 0:22:01having a lunatic dictator just north of them with McLear weapons.There
0:22:01 > 0:22:04is fraternal gangsta between the countries that people underestimate.
0:22:04 > 0:22:13I think maybe Donald Trump can claim that is something that he did. --
0:22:13 > 0:22:21fraternal thanks thanks.
0:22:26 > 0:22:34Maybe it is global people hating Donald Trump and getting together. A
0:22:34 > 0:22:37perverse motivation for all the little people to get together. The
0:22:37 > 0:22:42one thing everyone can agree on is that they hate Donald Trump.I am
0:22:42 > 0:22:46not sure that is true for the Japanese. One of the main is trying
0:22:46 > 0:22:52to do is to help the Japanese, who are understandably incredibly
0:22:52 > 0:22:56concerned. He's worried about Chinese expansion. He wants to
0:22:56 > 0:23:05reassure the Japanese that he has their back and the real dividing
0:23:05 > 0:23:09line and the American fear is that the South Koreans would be prepared
0:23:09 > 0:23:15to do a deal with North Korea that didn't have a nuclear question
0:23:15 > 0:23:19addressed within it, because nuclear weapons are in the North Korean...I
0:23:19 > 0:23:27don't think that we are talking about Kim Yong, but for all the docs
0:23:27 > 0:23:32that he is a madman added lunatic, I think that was really clever. --
0:23:32 > 0:23:40talking about Kim Yong
0:23:40 > 0:23:43-- talking about Kim Yong Un.
0:23:43 > 0:23:48the same week you have them parading missiles in the country and then he
0:23:48 > 0:23:56sends his sister to South Korea and they are having kimchi together and
0:23:56 > 0:23:59apparently it's a sign that everything is going to be well. I
0:23:59 > 0:24:07think we shouldn't underestimate North Korea and every little helps.
0:24:07 > 0:24:13Like you, I am not a great fan of the IOC or winter sports. It is soft
0:24:13 > 0:24:25power. The region and Japan, they don't know what to do any more, all
0:24:25 > 0:24:31those missiles flying over their heads. Wait and see, but I think
0:24:31 > 0:24:37it's a clever move.Soft power can be beneficial. It can be... A
0:24:37 > 0:24:43sporting event doesn't have to be a fig leaf, it can oils on wheels.The
0:24:43 > 0:24:47difficulty is, is an end to game possible with the North Korean
0:24:47 > 0:24:54regime the way it is? Will be be willing to make any significant
0:24:54 > 0:25:02concessions. They have gotten closer before, you can see ways that it
0:25:02 > 0:25:09might be possible and South Korea would like to make some kind of the
0:25:09 > 0:25:14deal, but the nuclear weapons are probably off the table, because the
0:25:14 > 0:25:17North Koreans are not going to give them up. That is their protection
0:25:17 > 0:25:20against Donald Trump and anybody else who wants to do something about
0:25:20 > 0:25:27it.That means an international deal is not feasible.In the long run, it
0:25:27 > 0:25:38is like Iran. In 20 years, the hope is that the regime collapses of its
0:25:38 > 0:25:45own weight.The North Korean regime is a regime like nothing else. I am
0:25:45 > 0:25:52old fashioned, I am on the side of the democracies.We all are.Right
0:25:52 > 0:25:56now, we have to draw it to a close, because we are all keen to watch the
0:25:56 > 0:26:02Bobsleigh and the ice-skating. I have two let you leave to consider
0:26:02 > 0:26:07your enthusiastic viewing of the winter Olympics. That is offer this
0:26:07 > 0:26:11week. We do hope you can join as next week at the same time. Thank
0:26:11 > 0:26:22you for being with us.