:01:03. > :01:13.As regional pay comes a step closer, will it be good or bad for Wales?
:01:13. > :01:20.
:01:20. > :01:23.Good evening. In his Budget yesterday, the Chancellor gave
:01:23. > :01:27.Government departments the all- clear to press ahead with moves
:01:27. > :01:29.towards regional pay once the current pay freeze ends. In the
:01:29. > :01:33.meantime, he's published the UK Government's submission to the pay
:01:33. > :01:37.review bodies considering regional pay for teachers and health workers.
:01:37. > :01:40.They're due to give their recommendations in July. Wales tops
:01:40. > :01:49.the list of areas with the highest disparity between public and
:01:49. > :01:53.private sector wages at 18%. should see what we can do to make
:01:53. > :01:58.our public services more responsive and help our private sector to grow
:01:58. > :02:04.and create jobs in all parts of the country. With that, the debate
:02:04. > :02:07.began. What is the lodger behind local pay for public workers? Well,
:02:08. > :02:13.independent analysis has suggested that if you work in the public
:02:13. > :02:17.sector in Wales like the DVLA here at Swansea, you are paid 18% higher
:02:17. > :02:22.than your private sector counter- parts and companies and businesses
:02:22. > :02:27.say they just can't compete with that. As a result, they are missing
:02:27. > :02:31.out on the best workers coming to work for them. To begin with, the
:02:31. > :02:37.UK Government are looking at the pay of the 5,000 to 6,000 people
:02:37. > :02:43.who work at the DVLA as well as the 6,500 people who work at the DWP in
:02:43. > :02:47.Wales, Jobcentres and the like. Their inflated wages cost jobs
:02:47. > :02:51.according to the body representing industry in Wales. What many
:02:51. > :02:55.businesses have found is that they are being crowded out because of
:02:55. > :02:59.the wages that are being offered by the public sector, particularly
:02:59. > :03:02.during better economic times, so probably a few years ago more than
:03:02. > :03:06.today. That is a real issue. They can't fill the jobs they want to
:03:06. > :03:09.with the people they want to. If we are to return to growth within the
:03:09. > :03:12.economy, the only part of the economy that can drive that growth
:03:13. > :03:17.is the private sector so we need to rebalance the economy in favour of
:03:17. > :03:21.the pray vat sector. There is a danger -- private sector. There is
:03:21. > :03:25.a danger that all you do by lowering public sector salaries is
:03:25. > :03:29.pull money out of the local economy. You take a lot of purchasing power
:03:29. > :03:36.out of the economy. To a certain extent, there would be less money
:03:36. > :03:39.spent in restaurants, pubs, shops, so the private sector would
:03:39. > :03:44.possibly hit. There would be a loss of jobs there. What the Government
:03:44. > :03:48.is hoping is as a result of the wages being lower, the
:03:48. > :03:52.manufacturing would be competitive once again. To become competitive
:03:52. > :03:56.against Eastern Europe and China and India, you may need wages to
:03:56. > :04:01.fall a long way before you bring back some of those manufacturing
:04:01. > :04:06.jobs. As the Chancellor mentioned in his speech yesterday, local pay
:04:06. > :04:12.already exists in parts of the public sector. We are also looking
:04:12. > :04:17.to see whether we can make public sector pay more responsive to local
:04:17. > :04:21.pay rates. It is something, as we have just heard, the last
:04:21. > :04:25.Government introduced into the court service. The union for the
:04:25. > :04:30.bosses of the Civil Service told Dragon's Eye the policy could
:04:30. > :04:34.undermine their work. What we would see is further fragmentation of the
:04:34. > :04:39.Civil Service, a lack of flexibility, they would have
:04:39. > :04:44.different pay rates and certainly for a lot of our members, there's
:04:44. > :04:51.greater mobility from one part of the country to another. This will
:04:51. > :04:54.be another tier of bureaucracy. Welsh Government have made their
:04:54. > :05:00.opposition to the plans clear. The Finance Minister told us it would
:05:00. > :05:05.also be a logistical nightmare. must value the rate for the job and
:05:05. > :05:08.we must value our nurses and doctors and police officers and
:05:08. > :05:13.social workers. Our civil servants, we should value them for the work
:05:13. > :05:18.they do. The work that's been done and negotiated through collective
:05:18. > :05:26.bargaining over years, working well on an England and Wales and a UK
:05:26. > :05:31.basis. This has worked. It seems to me also that this is a Government
:05:31. > :05:37.that wants to keep the union and it's driving these divisions. This
:05:37. > :05:41.is divisive. Again, I go back to the point, the Finance Minister, I
:05:41. > :05:45.feel it is inappropriate at this time. Trying to sort out pay at a
:05:45. > :05:50.local level sounds like it is much more complicated than what it is
:05:50. > :05:54.now. Do you think that could be a difficulty? Great difficulty. In
:05:54. > :05:59.the '80s, a previous Tory Government tried this in the Health
:05:59. > :06:04.Service and they realised it would be impossible, particularly in
:06:04. > :06:12.terms of different rates of pay between Trusts and Health Service,
:06:12. > :06:16.you know, this is just the wrong thing. It is still early days on
:06:16. > :06:22.the policy, the UK Government departments have just started
:06:22. > :06:27.discussions. Already, the very idea of local pay is hugely contention.
:06:27. > :06:30.Arwyn Jones reporting. As well as the move towards local
:06:30. > :06:32.pay agreement, the Chancellor also announced another increase in the
:06:32. > :06:35.personal allowance - that's the amount someone can earn before
:06:35. > :06:38.paying tax. He said the measure would remove two million low-paid
:06:38. > :06:41.workers around the UK from tax altogether. George Osborne also
:06:41. > :06:49.announced plans to end the age- related tax allowances for
:06:49. > :06:52.pensioners. And a cut in the top rate of tax for those earning more
:06:52. > :06:58.than �150,000 from 50p to 45p. Let's speak to the Secretary of
:06:58. > :07:02.State for Wales, Cheryl Gillan, who joins us from Glasgow. Welcome.
:07:02. > :07:07.Good evening. Are pensioners paying for the abolition of the 50p tax
:07:07. > :07:12.rate? No, not at all. What was announced in the Budget by the
:07:12. > :07:17.Chancellor was in fact that there is going to be the largest cash
:07:17. > :07:23.increase for pensioners ever in living history and, at the same
:07:23. > :07:26.time, we are going to simplify the tax system. That will cost
:07:26. > :07:36.pensioners a small amount, presumably? There are going to be
:07:36. > :07:37.
:07:37. > :07:41.no cash losers between 2012/13 and 2013/14. As you said, one of the
:07:41. > :07:44.other things we have done is increase personal allowances and we
:07:44. > :07:51.will be increasing personal allowances, hopefully to �10,000,
:07:51. > :07:57.but at the moment it stands at �9,205 and that means that that
:07:57. > :08:01.takes a large number of people, 95,000 people out of tax in Wales
:08:01. > :08:06.and 1.1 million other people benefit. Perhaps many of those
:08:06. > :08:10.people and many others who don't earn anywhere near �150,000 a year
:08:10. > :08:16.will wonder why the Chancellor was so keen to cut the 50 pence tax
:08:16. > :08:21.rate? Well, I think he explained that very well. The yield on this
:08:21. > :08:26.tax of 50p, which is the highest in the G20, is relatively small. With
:08:26. > :08:30.other measures in the Budget, he is raising five times that amount from
:08:31. > :08:35.the wealthiest in our country. What is very interesting for me is that
:08:35. > :08:39.Labour had 13 years to introduce that 50p tax if they were so keen
:08:39. > :08:42.on it, but in fact they introduced on it, but in fact they introduced
:08:42. > :08:49.it in the dying days of their Government. The challenge now is
:08:49. > :08:56.for Labour is would they return to that 50p tax rate? They introduced
:08:56. > :09:00.it because until recently the Chancellor was saying now would not
:09:00. > :09:04.be the time to reduce that. Can I ask you about the question of
:09:04. > :09:08.yield? In his speech to the Commons, the Chancellor said that he found
:09:08. > :09:13.aggressive tax avoidance morally repugnant and yet the fact that
:09:13. > :09:16.rich people were avoiding the 50p tax seems to be his explanation for
:09:16. > :09:21.removing it, isn't he rolling over? I don't think anybody would expect
:09:21. > :09:25.us to keep a tax that makes us uncompetitive and is the highest
:09:25. > :09:30.tax rate in the G20 when we are trying to compete around the world.
:09:30. > :09:37.Why not deal with the avoidance if yield is an issue? What... Why not
:09:37. > :09:42.deal with that by tackling the avoidance? What he has done is deal
:09:42. > :09:46.with the wealthiest in society by imposing measures that will raise
:09:46. > :09:49.five times that amount from the Exchequer so this Budget was making
:09:49. > :09:53.those that are the wealthiest pay more into the tax system and
:09:53. > :09:58.lifting more at the lower end of the earnings scale completely out
:09:58. > :10:02.of tax altogether. In his first Budget, nearly two years ago, the
:10:02. > :10:08.Chancellor forecast economic growth for 2012 of 2.8%. Yesterday, he
:10:08. > :10:11.said the forecast had been reduced to 0.8%. Is that not proof that the
:10:12. > :10:16.Government's strategy for growth is failing? We have growth and you
:10:16. > :10:21.have only got to look around the world to see the way in which the
:10:21. > :10:24.growth forecasts have been revised down in other areas... The American
:10:25. > :10:29.economy is looking pretty buoyant? The measures we have adopted in
:10:29. > :10:34.this Budget, particularly some of the measures for Wales, whereby we
:10:34. > :10:39.are giving 100% capital allowances in the Deeside Enterprise Zones, we
:10:39. > :10:44.will make Cardiff the most super- connected city with �12 million. In
:10:44. > :10:50.fact, finding an extra nearly �12 million for the Welsh Government in
:10:50. > :10:54.a balanced Budget and �500 million extra since October 2010, I think
:10:54. > :10:58.we are putting everything we can into the Welsh economy and now I
:10:58. > :11:03.hope that the Welsh Government is going to get on with the job.
:11:03. > :11:06.Surely, the plan is to take money out of the Welsh economy by
:11:06. > :11:11.introducing regional or local pay agreements? How can that stimulate
:11:11. > :11:15.the private sector if you are going to be taking money out of people's
:11:15. > :11:19.pockets that they might otherwise be spending? Let's be clear about
:11:19. > :11:25.this. Local pay was brought in by the last Labour Government. They
:11:25. > :11:31.brought in local pay for the court service. What we have asked is the
:11:31. > :11:34.pay review body to look at this area and it will be up to
:11:34. > :11:39.individual departments and, in particular, it will be... Very
:11:39. > :11:42.briefly, can you explain how it can stimulate growth? It will be up to
:11:42. > :11:46.the Welsh Government to decide whether to implement it for the
:11:46. > :11:50.people they employ. At the moment... How can it stimulate the private
:11:50. > :11:57.sector, can you explain that? differential between public sector
:11:57. > :12:01.pay and private sector pay in Wales is 18%. The private sector just
:12:01. > :12:05.can't compete in some areas. I think if there is a level playing
:12:05. > :12:08.field we will find that stimulus for the private sector that we need.
:12:08. > :12:12.If the Labour Government and if the Welsh Government is so against
:12:12. > :12:16.regional pay, I presume their new office in London they won't be
:12:16. > :12:20.paying London weighting to their staff. That is also local pay.
:12:20. > :12:23.presume local pay is not going to be a big issue in your
:12:23. > :12:27.constituency? This is something poorer areas of the country will
:12:27. > :12:30.have to deal with, you accept that? Local pay is something that was
:12:30. > :12:35.brought in by the last Government. It will be looked at by the pay
:12:35. > :12:40.review bodies and it will be up to those departments in Government to
:12:40. > :12:43.decide whether to implement it. Thank you very much. Let's get
:12:43. > :12:46.Labour reaction to the proposals on local pay rates in the public
:12:46. > :12:52.sector. Owen Smith is the MP for Pontypridd and the Party's Treasury
:12:52. > :12:57.spokesman. He's in Westminster. Welcome to the programme. Hello.
:12:57. > :13:00.you accept that the economy in Wales is out of balance between the
:13:00. > :13:02.public and private sector and measures need to be taken to
:13:02. > :13:06.measures need to be taken to address that? I accept there is
:13:06. > :13:10.some differential. Whether it is 18%, we would need to look at that
:13:10. > :13:13.very carefully. That is a very high number. It is frightening for
:13:13. > :13:17.public sector workers in Wales to hear that number being used quite
:13:17. > :13:20.so freely by the Government. Is that the volume of pay cuts they
:13:20. > :13:24.are expecting people to take? I don't know. It's alarming to me
:13:24. > :13:27.that they are talking about a differential of a fifth and
:13:27. > :13:31.implying that they might need to rebalance that. I'm sure they are
:13:31. > :13:36.not proposing to try and get private sector companies to put up
:13:36. > :13:40.their pay by 18%. I'm sure what is in their mind is to deflate the
:13:40. > :13:44.salaries and deflate the local economies. Presumably, the private
:13:44. > :13:49.sector needs some help to compete, the CBI have said that? I don't see
:13:49. > :13:54.any evidence of that. I have heard the same words as you have from the
:13:54. > :13:58.CBI. I talk to business. Frankly, if it were true that private sector
:13:58. > :14:03.businesses across Wales were struggling to get workers, we
:14:03. > :14:08.wouldn't have 2.67 million people unemployed across the country. We
:14:08. > :14:14.would have full employment if there was a real difficulty getting
:14:14. > :14:19.people to get out there and work. It is about attracting the
:14:19. > :14:23.talented? I think what is in the back of this is the fact this
:14:23. > :14:27.Government has got a ideological fixation in dividing our country
:14:27. > :14:30.between public and private. It is an old-fashioned view. The public
:14:30. > :14:33.and the private sector are intertwined in all sorts of ways
:14:34. > :14:39.which is why we have seen, when the public sector has been so cut in
:14:39. > :14:43.the last year or so, the private sector struggling to do what the
:14:43. > :14:50.Government thought would happen and fill the gap left by a reduction in
:14:50. > :14:55.public sector spending. It is just not that simple. If the Labour,
:14:55. > :14:59.forgive me, just to address this point - if the Labour Party thinks
:14:59. > :15:01.that local pay or regional pay is such a bad idea, why did the
:15:01. > :15:09.previous Labour Government establish the principle by
:15:09. > :15:12.introducing it for the court Let's nail that lie once and for
:15:12. > :15:15.all, because this Government should have learned they can't keep saying
:15:15. > :15:18.their policies are evolution of our policies as they've done on the
:15:18. > :15:22.health Bill, only to have the rest of the world realise shortly
:15:22. > :15:27.thereafter that it's revolution, not evolution. When we introduced
:15:27. > :15:31.the changes in the court service, back in 2008, we were bringing
:15:31. > :15:36.together all of the different parts of the court service, the Crown
:15:36. > :15:41.Courts, County courts, magistrates courts, in which there were over 43
:15:41. > :15:46.separate pay bands right across the country, into five. Four in the end.
:15:46. > :15:50.We ended up with a London pay band, outer London pay band, and base
:15:50. > :15:54.clay the rest of the country -- basically the rest of the country.
:15:54. > :15:58.We didn't have radically localised bargaining right across the rest of
:15:58. > :16:02.the UK, that's what they're proposing. They're proposing to
:16:02. > :16:07.break up pay, break up national pay bargaining in order to drive down
:16:07. > :16:12.public sector wages. It's a bad idea. They tried it before in the
:16:12. > :16:15.1980s, in the NHS. It took them over a year to try to come to
:16:15. > :16:19.agreement across the country. It didn't work, which is why they got
:16:19. > :16:22.rid of it. There is a dilemma here for the Welsh Government in Cardiff
:16:22. > :16:24.Bay, which is whether to seek to have pay and conditions in areas
:16:24. > :16:28.like education and the NHS devolved if the Government presses ahead
:16:28. > :16:33.with this. Do you think they should press for that? Well, I think at
:16:33. > :16:36.the moment we as Labour in Wales & West Minister should be arguing for
:16:36. > :16:41.national pay bargaining, which is the most efficient way to keep an
:16:41. > :16:44.eye on what wages are doing, but it's also the most equitable way to
:16:44. > :16:49.make sure you get paid the same rate for doing the same job in
:16:49. > :16:54.different parts of the country. We should also have London waegting to
:16:54. > :16:57.-- waiting to -- weighting. But we need to make sure we are fair to
:16:57. > :17:00.people and deflating the wages of Welsh workers or workers in the
:17:00. > :17:06.north-east is a disgrace and shouldn't be allowed to happen.
:17:06. > :17:08.Thank you very much for joining us. Leanne Wood made her debut as Plaid
:17:08. > :17:11.Cymru leader at First Minister's questions this week. She was
:17:11. > :17:17.welcomed to her new position by the other party leaders and she asked
:17:17. > :17:21.the three of them to join with her in condemning regional pay rates in
:17:21. > :17:28.the public sector. We shut it would be a -- we thought it would be a
:17:28. > :17:37.good opportunity to send our pundit Brian Meechan to find out how
:17:38. > :17:42.Plaid's leadership substitution changes the Senedd politics games.
:17:42. > :17:46.Labour's just about able to field a full team on the bumpy pitch of
:17:46. > :17:49.Senedd politics with 30 of the 60 Assembly members. But a united
:17:49. > :17:54.opposition could do some damage against the Welsh Government, if it
:17:54. > :17:57.got its tactics right. To the surprise of some Leanne Wood
:17:57. > :18:01.choose to go after the UK Government policy in the form of
:18:01. > :18:04.regional pay, rather than than challenging the Welsh Government.
:18:04. > :18:08.Will you therefore join me and invite the other party leaders to
:18:08. > :18:14.stand together in a united position in order to stop this UK Government
:18:14. > :18:23.from putting further pressure on household incomes in Wales? Leader
:18:23. > :18:30.of the opposition. I think it's safe to say from our exchanges that
:18:30. > :18:34.there are some differences between the two of us. LAUGHTER. Teammates
:18:34. > :18:38.deny Leanne Wood's natural instinct will be to tackle the Tories rather
:18:38. > :18:42.than Labour. It's instinct to be pro-Wales actually. That's what I
:18:42. > :18:47.saw yesterday and of course yes it's OK to agree with Labour on the
:18:47. > :18:50.things that you actually agree on. Leanne Wood is unashamed in
:18:50. > :18:53.sporting her socialist badge. Some commentators believe she will be
:18:53. > :18:57.less interested in what's happening on the Senedd pitch. She will be
:18:57. > :19:01.thinking, look, you know, the way to win votes for Plaid is to be
:19:01. > :19:06.seen out there. She will be on those picket lines out there there,
:19:06. > :19:09.as she has been in the past. She will want to associate her party
:19:10. > :19:14.with every protest, respectable protest e that's going. I guess the
:19:14. > :19:18.focus of Leanne Wood's attention will not be on the National
:19:18. > :19:22.Assembly for Wales, but on Wales itself and the people out there.
:19:22. > :19:26.Opponents say Plaid's move to the left is a tactical blunder. What's
:19:26. > :19:28.happened is the Tories have lurched to the right under their new
:19:28. > :19:32.leadership and Plaid have lurched to the left under their new
:19:32. > :19:35.leadership. The problem for the Liberal Democrats is that they're
:19:35. > :19:43.really unsure about where to go. They're still under the shadow of
:19:43. > :19:53.the UK coalition. What we Nellie have is the centre -- what we
:19:53. > :19:53.
:19:53. > :19:57.eepbgs -- essentially have are the left. There will be an enormous
:19:57. > :20:01.debate between Plaid and Labour over who is going to be the more
:20:01. > :20:05.left-wing on certain issues. I think the real debate is going to
:20:05. > :20:09.be going forward about devolution and about where everybody's stance
:20:09. > :20:12.on it and also about the actual delivery of services and how
:20:12. > :20:15.successful that's been and under Labour and a Labour Plaid
:20:15. > :20:19.administration actually that's just been pretty poor. And she thinks
:20:19. > :20:24.there is an opportunity for the Tories to be distinctive. It's very
:20:24. > :20:27.important that we are able to claim the centre and centre right ground
:20:27. > :20:30.and I think we have displayed that. We have displayed that with the
:20:30. > :20:33.policies that we have, with the Budget that we set last time around
:20:33. > :20:37.and I think that people are beginning to see us for what we
:20:37. > :20:39.really are, which is a Welsh Conservative Party. The Liberal
:20:39. > :20:45.Democrats have been playing defensively since they joined the
:20:45. > :20:53.coalition with the Conservatives at Westminster. Quite successfully,
:20:53. > :20:57.only losing one at the last election. Labour is the largest
:20:57. > :21:01.party. At the end of the day in budget terms they need one vote to
:21:01. > :21:06.actually achieve a majority. They conducted discussions with Plaid
:21:06. > :21:11.Cymru and with ourselves. We were able to reach an agreement, Plaid
:21:11. > :21:14.weren't. It's my view that Kirsty Williams actually got a good deal
:21:14. > :21:18.for the Liberal Democrats, more importantly she got a good deal for
:21:18. > :21:21.the poorest children in Wales. After the 2007 Assembly elections
:21:22. > :21:24.there were serious discussions about a rainbow coalition
:21:24. > :21:29.Government bringing together Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the
:21:29. > :21:33.Liberal Democrats. But Leanne Wood and Andrew Davies are now
:21:33. > :21:38.Captaining different teams. A key Plaid player in previous coalition
:21:38. > :21:42.talks has shown the red card to any future rainbow coalition. I think
:21:42. > :21:47.it will be a very long way off. But then again I wouldn't want Carwyn
:21:47. > :21:51.Jones to sit back and say that could never happen, that the other
:21:51. > :21:55.parties couldn't gang up on me and sort of vote me down on things,
:21:55. > :21:59.because obviously he recognises that he's got a minority Government
:21:59. > :22:03.and he's got to co-operate with other parties on any piece of
:22:03. > :22:07.legislation or important votes and so on, but obviously he's going to
:22:07. > :22:12.try to pick us off one at a time, depending on the issue. There were
:22:12. > :22:15.four people in Plaid Cymru last time that were ruling any kind of
:22:15. > :22:19.rainbow out, when they were trying to establish that. And Leanne Wood
:22:19. > :22:22.was one of them. So you can forget that.
:22:22. > :22:26.Formations, tactics, strategies, all important for football clubs as
:22:26. > :22:33.well as political teams. But for their supporters it's results that
:22:33. > :22:37.ultimately matter. That report from Brian Me, cha --
:22:37. > :22:46.Meechan. Let's discuss those issues with media Wales Senedd
:22:46. > :22:56.correspondent Matt Withers and rod rod -- Rod Reurdz. -- Richards.
:22:56. > :23:01.
:23:01. > :23:08.We heard there were some Often we have heard of cosy in the
:23:08. > :23:11.past, it's been too cosy. In 2007 we came close to rainbow coalition,
:23:11. > :23:17.that isn't going to happen now. We have seen the Conservatives under
:23:17. > :23:21.RT Davies take a very much lurch to the right, pro-unionist, pro-
:23:21. > :23:25.monarchy. Very much pro-market and then huge change in Plaid now in
:23:25. > :23:30.terms of Leanne Wood, very radical socialist. Somebody in Labour was
:23:30. > :23:34.saying to me today she's going to turn into the Respect Party. If you
:23:34. > :23:39.were to draw a diagram of these two politician it is would be very
:23:39. > :23:43.difficult to find the point at which they merge. Rod Richards, you
:23:43. > :23:47.have experience of leading an opposition party in the Assembly.
:23:47. > :23:52.How important is it to be an effective opposition to work with
:23:52. > :23:55.your other opposition parties at times? Well, it's going to be a
:23:56. > :24:02.very interesting chamber, at least an interesting chamber and RT
:24:02. > :24:05.Davies is going to be a much happier leader than Carwyn Jones.
:24:05. > :24:11.He must be looking at ways of winning back the rural votes gone
:24:11. > :24:14.to Plaid and Carwyn Jones must be concerned about losing his left-
:24:14. > :24:21.wing vote. When it comes to legislation and voting on
:24:21. > :24:24.amendments that's going to be actually in Carwyn's favour. I am
:24:24. > :24:30.trying to think of amendments Plaid and RT Davies might agree upon,
:24:30. > :24:35.there must be something. From that point of view, of legislation, as
:24:35. > :24:40.Matt says, they're going to be fragmented so Carwyn will have an
:24:40. > :24:43.easier ride there. What about the point Leanne wood is going to be
:24:44. > :24:47.looking to park her tanks on Labour's lawn, going for those
:24:47. > :24:50.valley heartlands, traditional Labour voters saying I am over here,
:24:50. > :24:53.I am of the left, Plaid is a different party to the one you have
:24:53. > :24:57.always imagined. Yeah, absolutely. Certainly she's going to look to
:24:57. > :25:00.take Labour on from the left and that's got Labour licking their
:25:00. > :25:05.lips. Everybody I have spoken to in Labour since Leanne Wood's election
:25:05. > :25:09.has said bring it on, that they don't think that Plaid can outleft
:25:09. > :25:13.them, they don't think they can take them in the valleys again,
:25:13. > :25:17.that Leanne Wood herself has tried to gain a personal vote in the
:25:17. > :25:19.valleys in elections and has failed, has had to go in the Assembly on
:25:19. > :25:29.the list. Labour are looking forward to taking Plaid on in the
:25:29. > :25:34.
:25:34. > :25:36.valleys. I think as well Carwyn Jones might well turn out to be
:25:36. > :25:39.lucky Carwyn because it's always possible that a Labour AM would
:25:39. > :25:42.defect to Plaid and therefore give him the majority. Defect to Labour.
:25:42. > :25:47.Or might become shall we say independent of Plaid and support
:25:47. > :25:51.Labour in certain circumstances or in certain ways. So that option or
:25:51. > :25:55.possibility remains open, indeed I think it's getting stronger. Do you
:25:55. > :25:58.share that view? I think it's a slightly mischiefous view. I can't
:25:58. > :26:03.personally see that happening in the future. There is a slight
:26:03. > :26:07.problem for Carwyn Jones, I think this limits his options in terms of
:26:07. > :26:12.future deals. We saw in the run-up to the budget vote at the end of
:26:12. > :26:15.last year he was able to cleverly play off Plaid and the Lib Dems and
:26:15. > :26:19.ultimately agree a deal with the Lib Dems because it was cheaper.
:26:19. > :26:23.Next time around when he comes to negotiate he is going to be
:26:23. > :26:27.knocking on Kirsty Williams' door first, because if he says to Leanne
:26:27. > :26:30.Wood what do you want to support this budget she's going to be
:26:30. > :26:35.asking for things he can't deliver. Constitutional things. The chance
:26:35. > :26:40.of a Plaid Labour coalition before the next election, any likelihood
:26:40. > :26:44.of that happening do you think? think it's remote, certainly far
:26:44. > :26:48.less likely than it was before. The Welsh Lib Dems, of course, are
:26:48. > :26:53.caught between a rock and a hard place because of the party's
:26:53. > :26:57.relationship with the Tories in London. And indeed the Lib Dems in
:26:57. > :27:05.Wales must be seriously worried about getting sidelined in this
:27:05. > :27:12.chamber. We shall see what happens. Thank you very much. Now let's go
:27:12. > :27:16.over to our political editor Betsan Powys here. Let's go back to the
:27:16. > :27:19.Budget and particularly regional pay. It's coming closer. Do we
:27:20. > :27:25.understand how it might work at the moment? Regional, local, that sort
:27:25. > :27:30.of thing? Regional and local not quite. The Treasury pointing out we
:27:30. > :27:34.should be using the term local, rather than regional. There's
:27:34. > :27:39.something I have seen that what local would mean. If you accept the
:27:39. > :27:42.word region for Wales, that's where it seems to be. I think it was much
:27:42. > :27:45.clearer after yesterday that the Government are going for it and
:27:45. > :27:48.want to go for it and how that might work, through Government
:27:48. > :27:51.departments and so on, that once deals come to an end you will be
:27:51. > :27:55.able to negotiate another more local deal. And a Welsh
:27:55. > :28:01.Conservative MPs who are really very, very nervous about it. They
:28:01. > :28:05.look at their own seats and go to meetings with more gung-ho
:28:05. > :28:12.colleagues in Westminster and have you seen my seat, would you call
:28:12. > :28:15.that affluent, I wouldn't. And you go down this route, the words were
:28:15. > :28:20.used potentially very dangerous. struggle to find either a
:28:20. > :28:23.Conservative or a Liberal Democrat MP in Wales who can come on the
:28:23. > :28:28.programme to defend it today, although perhaps it's because they
:28:28. > :28:31.were busy, far be it it for me to speculate. Are we likely to see
:28:31. > :28:34.some civil civil service departments pressing ahead with
:28:34. > :28:39.this irrespective of the view which isn't reporting until July? Yes,
:28:39. > :28:42.they've been given the go ahead to do that and the DVLA, Jobcentres
:28:42. > :28:47.and so on, that's now what they're facing and that's why those
:28:47. > :28:51.Conservative MPs are nervous because there will be a tester of -
:28:51. > :28:56.- taster of this and they know to sell that with the arcment we are
:28:56. > :28:59.all in this together is not going to be easy. But last night you
:28:59. > :29:03.heard Jonathan Edwards talking in terms of of let's devolve, Labour
:29:03. > :29:05.pick up on this and say Plaid are in favour of some sort of local or
:29:05. > :29:08.regional pay. That's the dilemma for the Labour Government now.
:29:08. > :29:12.Because even if they did devolve it surely they would struggle to find
:29:12. > :29:15.money to top stphup. They would and it was the only second and and
:29:15. > :29:17.split second I thought in the interview with Owen Smith where he
:29:17. > :29:21.thought for a second how he was going to respond. There are
:29:21. > :29:25.difficulties here for everybody. Kirsty Williams in Cardiff making
:29:25. > :29:28.it very clear, no matter what her party thinks in Westminster, she
:29:28. > :29:32.think it is would be bad for Wales and could cause real, real problems.