:00:02. > :00:06.Have anti-gay marriage campaigners broken the law by taking their
:00:06. > :00:16.fight into Welsh secondary schools? The Minister has ordered an
:00:16. > :00:22.
:00:22. > :00:26.Good evening. The latest opinion polls suggest a majority of people
:00:26. > :00:29.in Wales want some taxes to be devolved, but that may be easier
:00:29. > :00:33.said than done. Business and accountancy leaders have told us
:00:33. > :00:38.they are far less keen on the idea, fearing that it could mean a lot
:00:38. > :00:42.more paperwork. The Welsh Government has set up a commission
:00:42. > :00:52.to look into the issue and the man heading it up has spoken to
:00:52. > :01:01.
:01:01. > :01:07.Wales already makes its own money but unfortunately for us it is just
:01:07. > :01:11.the Royal Mint. They produce it but we cannot use it all for ourselves.
:01:11. > :01:14.A recent poll for the BBC suggested two-thirds of people in Wales were
:01:14. > :01:22.in favour of devolving some taxes, although they could not really
:01:22. > :01:26.agree on which ones. That reflects how tricky it is. What do you
:01:26. > :01:31.devolve, how do you collect it and how much money does it generate? As
:01:31. > :01:36.the commission are finding out now it is a difficult issue. Which
:01:36. > :01:38.taxes generate the most money? The big three are income tax, National
:01:39. > :01:45.Insurance and VAT, between them raising over three-quarters of all
:01:45. > :01:50.taxes in Wales. But can they be devolved? National Insurance is
:01:50. > :01:55.tied in to welfare payments so you cannot really devolve that. That
:01:55. > :02:00.takes out nearly �4 billion. There are European laws which mean that
:02:00. > :02:05.devolving VAT would be very tricky. Another �3.5 billion out of it. So
:02:05. > :02:12.that leaves you with income tax. But even that could be difficult to
:02:12. > :02:17.devolve, according to accountancy experts. Yes, it is a big
:02:17. > :02:20.fundraiser in Wales. It contributes to the net tax take. But the
:02:20. > :02:23.practical implications of devolving that are going to be quite
:02:23. > :02:28.difficult. For example, how would you appraise or divine where income
:02:28. > :02:34.tax gets levied? It depends on where the individual lives and
:02:34. > :02:37.works. It would be quite a difficult tax to devolve and if you
:02:37. > :02:41.look at Scotland, Scotland has had tax-varying powers on income tax
:02:41. > :02:48.for the last few years and has chosen not to use them, because of
:02:48. > :02:55.the complexity. The main body representing accountants in Wales
:02:55. > :02:58.says that devolving any kind of tax could be problematic. The UK tax
:02:58. > :03:03.regime is highly complex and it would certainly not make it any
:03:03. > :03:09.simpler. Our position would be to add a separate layer for perhaps
:03:09. > :03:14.Wales, perhaps Scotland, perhaps Northern Ireland. To greatly add to
:03:14. > :03:23.complexity would complicate matters for business. It would not really
:03:23. > :03:27.be beneficial for businesses in general. There are smaller taxes
:03:27. > :03:29.like landfill tax, and air passenger duty. But between them
:03:29. > :03:39.they only generate around some �2 million. Not insignificant but
:03:39. > :03:44.hardly a large contribution. One possibility is to devolve the
:03:44. > :03:50.profits of companies, corporation tax. Alex Salmond is keen to have
:03:50. > :03:54.that in Scotland and the same goes for Northern Ireland. It is 24% in
:03:54. > :03:57.the UK at the moment, but that will fall in future. Lowering
:03:57. > :04:02.corporation tax in Wales, the theory goes, could make businesses
:04:02. > :04:09.more likely to invest here. But small businesses like this one near
:04:09. > :04:13.Wrexham do not really see it that way. If we had a separate
:04:13. > :04:17.corporation tax between here and the border, and we are only a mile
:04:17. > :04:21.or two away, what effect that would have in terms of who collects it,
:04:21. > :04:25.who pays? Do you then get a situation where you have to pay
:04:25. > :04:30.corporation tax for the work you do in Wales when you are in Wales and
:04:30. > :04:32.corporation tax to England for the job? Theoretically, it has to be
:04:32. > :04:36.handled carefully, otherwise it could be an administrative
:04:36. > :04:42.nightmare for small businesses. What small businesses really want
:04:42. > :04:46.is to change the taxes they pay on their property, business rates.
:04:46. > :04:49.would hope to see a new form of business rate that would be fairer,
:04:49. > :04:52.more progressive, not levied on the arbitrary value of property that
:04:52. > :04:57.you do not own, and it would be a means of taxing businesses,
:04:57. > :05:01.irrespective of whether they have a property or office. Perversely,
:05:01. > :05:07.conversely, the case is that we are looking for more businesses to pay
:05:07. > :05:14.less tax. Instead of that business tax being levied on those with
:05:14. > :05:20.property, it is contributed to by all businesses. So if there is
:05:20. > :05:23.support for the Government... What else is there? It could borrow like
:05:23. > :05:28.the UK Government can but the man heading up the Welsh Government's
:05:28. > :05:31.Commission thinks there could be issues with that as well. The UK
:05:31. > :05:35.Treasury takes the view that capital borrowing powers need to be
:05:35. > :05:39.backed or flanked by a tax raising power, so that is something again
:05:39. > :05:42.we have to be conscious of because clearly if we are going to make
:05:42. > :05:52.recommendations which are going to be implemented, they cannot be ones
:05:52. > :05:59.
:05:59. > :06:02.which the Treasury would reject out of hand. On top of that, as we are
:06:02. > :06:05.technically in a recession again, borrowing more money could be
:06:05. > :06:12.controversial. The issue of devolving taxes to the Welsh
:06:12. > :06:16.Government, it really is very That joke is so good we had to use
:06:16. > :06:22.it twice! Alan Trench is from the School of Social and Political
:06:22. > :06:26.Science at Edinburgh University and writes the Devolution Matters blog.
:06:26. > :06:29.Alan Trench, on the face of it, you would expect businesses to support
:06:29. > :06:37.something that could well reduce their tax burden, so why are they
:06:37. > :06:45.being so sceptical about proposals to devolve corporation tax? They
:06:45. > :06:48.fear tax rates might not go down but go up. The other reason to be
:06:48. > :06:51.concerned from a business point of view about corporation tax is that
:06:51. > :06:54.it would be administratively quite complex and that complexity would
:06:54. > :06:58.fall probably more on business than on Government and administrative
:06:58. > :07:01.agencies because you would have to work out and be able to show in
:07:01. > :07:11.your corporation tax returns how much of your income originated from
:07:11. > :07:11.
:07:11. > :07:17.Wales and how much from other parts of the UK. So for larger businesses
:07:17. > :07:21.particularly, that could get very complicated indeed. From the point
:07:21. > :07:24.of view of the Welsh Government and the revenue that it can get in, as
:07:24. > :07:27.well as the possible stimulus to the economy of reducing corporation
:07:28. > :07:30.tax, what are the sorts of things they should consider in deciding
:07:30. > :07:34.whether or not to support devolution? Corporation tax is a
:07:34. > :07:38.very volatile tax and if your job is to provide public services the
:07:38. > :07:43.costs are pretty much constant and may even go up in a recession, it
:07:43. > :07:50.is very difficult to rely on a sort of tax that can vary by as much as
:07:50. > :07:57.corporation tax can. I have some figures here for how much it has
:07:57. > :08:03.varied during the recession. From the peak in 2007-2008 to the trough
:08:03. > :08:06.in 2009-2010, it has declined 23% in the UK as a whole. Over a
:08:06. > :08:09.slightly longer period, from 2007 until now, corporation tax revenues
:08:09. > :08:19.have declined by 9.2%, while there has been an overall decline of just
:08:19. > :08:26.
:08:26. > :08:29.under 1%. So you put your revenues under quite a lot of strain. That
:08:29. > :08:33.is made worse if you really want to cut corporation tax, because rules
:08:33. > :08:37.mean your block grant will be reduced to take account of that as
:08:37. > :08:44.well, so the overall amount of money to pay for public services in
:08:44. > :08:47.Wales will be reduced and reduced in a way that becomes very volatile.
:08:47. > :08:50.What about the argument that says reducing taxes on business
:08:50. > :08:54.stimulates the economy and what we need more than anything at the
:08:54. > :08:58.moment is growth in the economy, so all the devolved governments should
:08:59. > :09:06.go for it? There is certainly that argument and it is being pushed
:09:06. > :09:09.very strongly by Scotland and Northern Ireland. I think behind
:09:09. > :09:12.the scenes the Northern Ireland people are a bit more ambivalent
:09:13. > :09:17.about it. The question then is whether corporation tax is the main
:09:17. > :09:22.and best determinant of that sort of growth. There are quite a lot of
:09:22. > :09:25.levers for growth that are in the hands of devolved governments.
:09:25. > :09:29.Things like skills in the labour markets and what is known as an
:09:29. > :09:32.active labour market policy. Particularly in the Welsh case,
:09:32. > :09:36.business rates, which are already devolved in Scotland and Northern
:09:36. > :09:41.Ireland. Those may be more effective ways of trying to boost
:09:41. > :09:44.economic growth than corporation tax. Might the decision be taken
:09:44. > :09:48.away from the Welsh Government in the sense that if Northern Ireland
:09:48. > :09:53.goes for it and gets it, and Scotland goes for it and gets it,
:09:53. > :09:56.Wales is also going to have to go for it and get it or lose out to
:09:56. > :10:00.more competitive corporation rates elsewhere in the United Kingdom?
:10:00. > :10:03.There is a risk. I am more sceptical that it would be devolved
:10:03. > :10:06.to Scotland or Northern Ireland than your question suggests. I
:10:06. > :10:10.expect it will not be and I think the consequences of devolving it
:10:10. > :10:19.for the Treasury would be quite alarming and they would be very
:10:19. > :10:22.reluctant to see that happen. you. The Education Minister,
:10:22. > :10:25.Leighton Andrews, has asked his officials to investigate after a
:10:25. > :10:29.Catholic organisation wrote to secondary schools urging staff and
:10:29. > :10:32.pupils to back the campaign against same-sex marriage. The Catholic
:10:32. > :10:35.Education Service, which lobbies on behalf of the Church, invited them
:10:35. > :10:37.to consider the issue during assemblies and to support the
:10:37. > :10:47.online petition against same-sex marriage by the Coalition for
:10:47. > :10:50.
:10:50. > :10:53.For some it is a convention but for others, particularly among some
:10:53. > :10:58.religious groups, marriage is by definition between a man and a
:10:58. > :11:01.woman. The UK Government is currently consulting on whether
:11:01. > :11:07.that should change, so that same- sex couples would be allowed to
:11:07. > :11:12.marry. Many faith organisations have thrown their weight behind a
:11:12. > :11:15.petition by the Coalition for Marriage's plans. It has emerged
:11:15. > :11:18.today that the debate has reached into schools. The Catholic
:11:18. > :11:21.Education Service is defending its decision to write to secondary
:11:21. > :11:25.schools urging staff and pupils to support the campaign to ensure
:11:25. > :11:30.marriage remains between a man and a woman. It has been accused of
:11:30. > :11:33.acting illegally. It makes me feel sick because I think about gay kids
:11:34. > :11:36.in these schools and what message that gives of the totally
:11:36. > :11:45.unrealistic and inhuman or inhumane policy of the Catholic Church
:11:45. > :11:48.towards gay people. Welsh Government education officials are
:11:48. > :11:53.now investigating because schools and teachers are forbidden from
:11:53. > :11:56.promoting one side of a political argument. The organisation denies
:11:56. > :12:03.acting illegally, saying in its view marriage is religious and not
:12:03. > :12:06.political and it is entitled to raise it in schools. I think it is
:12:06. > :12:10.right that people in the wider community should be made aware of
:12:10. > :12:13.what it is that is being proposed, most particularly because there is
:12:13. > :12:21.a consultation and the Government will look at what the outcome of
:12:21. > :12:24.the consultation is before deciding how to proceed. Since 2005, gay and
:12:24. > :12:28.lesbian couples had been allowed to enter civil partnerships, which
:12:28. > :12:33.gives them similar rights to married couples. Critics at the
:12:33. > :12:37.time said it would inevitably lead to calls for same-sex marriage.
:12:37. > :12:41.Many now say that is exactly what has happened, but faith groups are
:12:41. > :12:44.united either for or against the proposals. Andrew Morton was a
:12:44. > :12:52.church minister who resigned in protest at what he saw as
:12:52. > :13:00.homophobic attitudes. In order to have an authentic critique of the
:13:00. > :13:02.Church as an institution, it was the most honorable thing to do.
:13:02. > :13:06.proposals would allow same-sex partners to enter into civil
:13:06. > :13:10.marriages only. Even those religious organisations that wanted
:13:10. > :13:13.to have gay and lesbian weddings would not be allowed to do so. But
:13:14. > :13:20.critics argue that if this does go ahead churches would eventually be
:13:20. > :13:24.forced to perform these ceremonies. The proposal is that this would be
:13:24. > :13:28.a change in the civil law and it will not affect what happens in
:13:28. > :13:30.churches or other places of worship. But the reality is we know that our
:13:30. > :13:34.participation in the European Convention on Human Rights, the
:13:34. > :13:37.fact that we had this overlay of human rights law, is in my view
:13:37. > :13:40.very likely to lead to churches ultimately being required to
:13:40. > :13:50.perform such marriages if the general definition of marriage
:13:50. > :13:51.
:13:51. > :13:57.changes. No one is proposing that religious bodies be forced to
:13:57. > :14:00.conduct same-sex marriages. That is just propaganda. It is also
:14:00. > :14:02.propaganda to say that if we get same-sex civil marriages in
:14:03. > :14:08.registry offices, this will force the churches to conduct same-sex
:14:08. > :14:11.marriages. That is not true. At the moment we have civil divorcees but
:14:11. > :14:16.even though the Roman Catholic Church prohibits divorce, it has
:14:16. > :14:22.never, ever been forced to conduct divorces. There are disagreements
:14:22. > :14:25.on whether these proposals go far enough. What they are offering is
:14:25. > :14:28.quite timid. There is a clear case that in those cases where religious
:14:29. > :14:36.groups such as Quakers and others that celebrate a marriage, the
:14:36. > :14:38.legislation should allow them to do so. Within my lifetime there has
:14:38. > :14:48.been a complete revolution in social attitudes towards same-sex
:14:48. > :14:54.couples. We have gone one step at a time in that revolution but when
:14:54. > :14:58.you look back and add it up, it is a revolution. I think it is
:14:58. > :15:02.important that we carry on doing it one step at a time because if you
:15:02. > :15:11.try to go too far too fast, then you create a backlash out of
:15:11. > :15:15.nowhere. Some argue that even if the current proposals go ahead,
:15:15. > :15:20.there still will not be equality. If the Government legalises same-
:15:20. > :15:22.sex civil marriages in registry offices, that would be great. But
:15:22. > :15:26.we will continue the fight to ensure that heterosexual couples
:15:26. > :15:29.have the right to a civil partnership if they wish and we
:15:29. > :15:37.will continue the fight to ensure that religious organisations can
:15:37. > :15:41.conduct same-sex marriages if that is their wish as well. It may be a
:15:41. > :15:45.subject that ignites passions but there is not a great deal of time
:15:45. > :15:49.for reflection. There is only a few months left of the consultation if
:15:49. > :15:55.the Government wants gay couples to be able to take their vows and
:15:55. > :15:58.declare themselves married before the next election, due in 2015. The
:15:58. > :16:03.Catholic Education Service refute any suggestion that their action
:16:03. > :16:06.amounts to campaigning. They have given a statement which reads,
:16:06. > :16:09."Catholic state schools have always been permitted to teach matters
:16:09. > :16:14.relating to sex and relationships education, including the importance
:16:14. > :16:17.of marriage, in accordance with the teaching of the Catholic Church.
:16:17. > :16:23.The Church's view on the importance of marriage is a religious view,
:16:23. > :16:26.not a political one". Joining me is Andrew White, director of Stonewall
:16:26. > :16:32.Cymru, and from our Millbank studio, Milo Yiannopoulos, who writes for
:16:32. > :16:37.the Catholic Herald. Welcome to the programme. Milo Yiannopoulos,
:16:37. > :16:39.before we get to the meat and drink of the issue, could I ask for your
:16:39. > :16:45.view of the appropriateness of the Catholic Education Service's
:16:45. > :16:49.decision to write to secondary schools in this way? It is entirely
:16:50. > :16:53.their right to do so. I will not speak on their behalf but it is
:16:53. > :16:57.almost certainly true that this is a religious, not a political
:16:57. > :17:03.statement and request. My personal issues with gay marriage are
:17:03. > :17:07.actually political and not quite so much religious. We will return to
:17:07. > :17:10.those in a second. On the issue of the Catholic Education Service's
:17:11. > :17:14.decision to do this, the Education Minister says he has asked for an
:17:14. > :17:18.investigation of whether there has been a breach of the law. What is
:17:18. > :17:21.your reaction? If there is a school in Wales that is encouraging
:17:21. > :17:26.children as young as 11 to sign a petition against equal civil
:17:26. > :17:30.marriage, that would be a gross dereliction of the duty of care.
:17:30. > :17:36.did make it clear that the petition was only eligible for signatures of
:17:36. > :17:39.those over 16. And yet we already have a case where a school has been
:17:39. > :17:46.shown to encourage children as young as 11 to be signing that
:17:46. > :17:52.petition. I am not sure what you mean. That is a very vague slur.
:17:52. > :17:56."Has been shown to have suggested". I know no evidence of that. Let's
:17:56. > :18:01.move on to the meat and drink of the issue. Perhaps you could
:18:01. > :18:04.explain why it is that you oppose the proposal for same-sex marriage.
:18:04. > :18:08.Aside from religious questions, and I will not speak for the Catholic
:18:08. > :18:15.Education Service or the Catholic Church, my objections to it are
:18:15. > :18:19.twofold, both political. The first is that I deeply resent being used
:18:19. > :18:22.as a political tool by David Cameron. This is really a very
:18:22. > :18:27.cynical vote-winning strategy by the Prime Minister to appeal to
:18:27. > :18:31.people who are not going to vote for him anyway. The second reason I
:18:32. > :18:35.am troubled by it is that by racing into what is an enormous change to
:18:35. > :18:38.a very substantial institution, which it is not an exaggeration to
:18:38. > :18:46.say is the cohesive glue which holds society together, we run the
:18:46. > :18:49.risk of serious consequences. I speak specifically about the war
:18:49. > :18:52.that will break out, and it will break out, between the gay
:18:52. > :18:59.community and extremist gay activists like Peter Tatchell who
:18:59. > :19:04.you had in your report, and the churches. Because what will not
:19:04. > :19:08.happen is that the Catholic Church will not bend on this. And nor, by
:19:08. > :19:11.the way, will the mosques. What I will find very interesting to watch
:19:11. > :19:15.is, when the inevitable human rights challenge is made, what will
:19:15. > :19:24.happen when the Imams in Tower Hamlets are told they have to
:19:24. > :19:27.legally perform gay marriage. is no suggestion under the
:19:27. > :19:31.proposals at the moment to force any religious organisation to
:19:32. > :19:38.conduct religious same-sex marriage ceremonies. In fact, it is ruled
:19:38. > :19:41.out. You see, the issue is that, while that may be true and the
:19:41. > :19:45.activists like to say this, of course what we know and have seen
:19:45. > :19:48.is that the European Court of Human Rights has no compulsion about
:19:48. > :19:56.overriding some of those rulings where it is considered to be an
:19:56. > :20:00.issue of human rights. It is very clear, from looking at similar
:20:00. > :20:05.cases, that what will happen is a test case will be brought and
:20:05. > :20:09.churches will be... Forgive me for interrupting but I must give Andrew
:20:09. > :20:12.White his fair say. A slippery slope that will ultimately end with
:20:12. > :20:18.a religious organisations being forced to act in contradiction of
:20:18. > :20:24.their beliefs? We are used to Milo Yiannopoulos and his argument of
:20:24. > :20:27.the slippery slope, along with many others. It is no such thing. The
:20:27. > :20:32.consultation states that this is not a religious marriage, it is a
:20:32. > :20:35.civil marriage. If you take the example of Spain, Belgium, Portugal,
:20:35. > :20:41.all of them Catholic countries, and all have had same-sex marriage for
:20:41. > :20:44.some years. There have been no such cases. Let's look at the Human
:20:44. > :20:49.Rights appeal court and the arguments that Milo Yiannopoulos
:20:49. > :20:51.used. No one has appealed under human rights legislation on the
:20:51. > :20:56.grounds of religious freedom or marital status to force the
:20:56. > :21:01.Catholic Church to marry divorcees or non-Catholics. It is just a
:21:01. > :21:06.hysterical argument. What about the point that this could cause a
:21:06. > :21:09.backlash against the gay community? I believe the term he used was that
:21:09. > :21:13.this could start a war between gays and straights, if certain
:21:13. > :21:17.extremists on either side decide to take up cudgels over this? Many
:21:17. > :21:23.lesbian and bisexual and gay people of faith would disagree with the
:21:23. > :21:27.arguments being used against civil marriage. If there is to be a war,
:21:27. > :21:31.it will be one declared by Milo Yiannopoulos and his compatriots.
:21:31. > :21:34.That is obviously offensive and untrue. That is absolutely not the
:21:34. > :21:39.case. The important thing to remember is that nobody has
:21:39. > :21:43.actually asked for this. This is not something that has even been
:21:43. > :21:47.demanded by the gay community but it is something that will be used
:21:47. > :21:52.by activists to make a point. You mentioned countries where this has
:21:52. > :21:55.been brought in. I do not think you really want to get into the case of
:21:55. > :21:59.Spain, for example, where since gay marriage has been instituted in a
:22:00. > :22:03.Catholic country, the instance of homophobic violence has skyrocketed.
:22:03. > :22:07.This is probably not something that you know much about but it is
:22:07. > :22:10.something I have been looking into. Well, is it something that you know
:22:10. > :22:15.much about? Let's talk about the current narrative. I think that
:22:15. > :22:21.means no. The narrative that talks about same-sex relationships as not
:22:21. > :22:26.being as worthy as heterosexual relationships. That narrative leads
:22:26. > :22:30.to increased bullying. Let's talk about the statistics - Milo
:22:30. > :22:36.Yiannopoulos is a fan of statistics. Two-thirds of lesbian and bisexual
:22:36. > :22:42.students in schools are bullied, 17% receive death threats. 1000
:22:42. > :22:51.homophobic hate crimes reported in Wales in the last two years. I am
:22:51. > :22:54.going to leave it there. Thank you There is one week until the local
:22:54. > :22:57.government elections. Tomos Livingstone has been looking at
:22:57. > :23:00.whether local or UK-wide issues have dominated the campaign.
:23:00. > :23:05.Before local elections, there is no shortage of political news, but
:23:05. > :23:09.with the economy in recession, the focus is on the national picture.
:23:09. > :23:14.So, are the elections about local issues, or is May 3rd a referendum
:23:14. > :23:16.on the UK Government? I have been knocking on doors with local
:23:16. > :23:23.election candidates since shortly after the Assembly elections last
:23:23. > :23:27.summer. We have had a whole sea of candidates with local manifestos in
:23:27. > :23:31.each of our local authorities, setting out local priorities. But I
:23:31. > :23:34.do not shy away from or apologise for the fact that we have also
:23:35. > :23:38.talked about the national picture. It is an issue voters have raised
:23:38. > :23:42.on the doorsteps. There is certainly no love for the Tories or
:23:42. > :23:45.Liberal Democrats and I think they are in for a tough night. These
:23:45. > :23:49.elections are about actually doing something for communities, creating
:23:49. > :23:54.opportunities within the local economy. We have done that in
:23:54. > :23:59.Cardiff. 600 jobs created there. In Gwynedd, we created a fund which
:23:59. > :24:08.has safeguarded or created over 300 jobs. In Caerphilly, we created 100
:24:08. > :24:11.apprenticeships. That is what we are offering the people of Wales.
:24:11. > :24:15.Labour hopes to benefit from the UK Government's recent problems, but
:24:15. > :24:20.what of the parties actually in power at Westminster? They would
:24:20. > :24:24.prefer the elections were about local concerns. The Welsh
:24:24. > :24:27.Conservatives will be fighting on a local level. Where I have gone
:24:27. > :24:30.round Wales, people have been addressing local issues. We have a
:24:30. > :24:32.positive platform about freezing council tax, increased funding for
:24:32. > :24:36.schools, greater transparency in local authorities so that people
:24:36. > :24:40.know where the money is going. But I accept there is an issue about
:24:40. > :24:43.mid-term and Westminster news. But from the Welsh Conservatives and
:24:44. > :24:52.the response we are getting, people want answers about what is going on
:24:52. > :24:55.locally. Labour, for some reason, do not want to talk on the issues
:24:55. > :24:58.relating to the election. Last year, they wanted to talk about the
:24:58. > :25:01.Westminster government. This year, in council elections, they do not
:25:01. > :25:06.want talk about the local government. They do not want to
:25:06. > :25:09.talk about the level of council tax investment in local services. And
:25:09. > :25:12.the reason is because Labour has such an appalling record at local
:25:12. > :25:17.council level. Problems at Westminster can spell trouble for
:25:17. > :25:20.local councillors. That is what happened to Labour in 2008.
:25:20. > :25:24.Ultimately, it is for the voters to decide what is more important, the
:25:24. > :25:28.performance of their local council, or what they think of the UK
:25:28. > :25:33.Government. Tomos Livingstone joins me in the
:25:33. > :25:36.studio. Westminster issues, or local issues? This is the axis on
:25:36. > :25:39.which all local elections turn, whether they are about the local
:25:39. > :25:42.council, whether the bins are collected on time, local services
:25:42. > :25:49.delivered, the level of council tax, or are they really about
:25:49. > :25:54.Westminster? Are they mid-term elections, to all intents and
:25:54. > :25:58.purposes, about the UK Government? Last time in 2008, it was the time
:25:58. > :26:02.of the 10p tax row. A Labour Government at Westminster getting
:26:02. > :26:07.rid of the 10p income tax rate, affecting low income people. That
:26:07. > :26:13.had a huge effect on the local elections. Labour lost dozens of
:26:13. > :26:17.seats across Wales and beyond. As we saw in that film, there are
:26:17. > :26:19.people hoping that the boot is on the other foot this time around,
:26:19. > :26:22.and that the problems of a different UK Government, the
:26:22. > :26:25.Conservative-Lib Dem administration, and there are plenty of those,
:26:25. > :26:28.everything from the Leveson inquiry to the economy going back into
:26:28. > :26:37.recession, Labour hoping it will perhaps work the other way and they
:26:37. > :26:41.will win back some of the ground lost in 2008. I sense that it will
:26:41. > :26:45.have an effect but will not be the dominant issue in the way it was
:26:45. > :26:49.four years ago. Do you get a sense of the expectations for how they
:26:49. > :26:52.are likely to do? Labour are hoping to win back some of that ground and
:26:53. > :26:56.they did very badly in 2008, down to 344 councillors across Wales.
:26:56. > :27:00.They will be looking to get back close up to and beyond 500
:27:00. > :27:05.councillors next week and will be looking to win back control of some
:27:05. > :27:08.of those authorities in the valleys that they lost last time. The test
:27:08. > :27:13.is whether they can win back control of the big authorities and
:27:13. > :27:17.the cities, Swansea, Newport and Cardiff. Plaid Cymru, a big test
:27:17. > :27:20.for the new leader, Leanne Wood. They will be hoping to take control
:27:20. > :27:23.of some authorities where they have been knocking on the door,
:27:23. > :27:27.Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, also hold off a challenge from Labour in
:27:27. > :27:31.Caerphilly. The Conservatives will be looking to do well in the areas
:27:31. > :27:34.where they did well in last year's Assembly elections. A tough night
:27:34. > :27:37.for the Liberal Democrats. Peter Black said earlier this week that
:27:37. > :27:41.the party is competitive in the wards they already hold, and that
:27:41. > :27:45.is the sound of a party crossing its fingers. Let me ask about an
:27:45. > :27:49.unrelated matter. Keith Davies, the Assembly Member who is being
:27:49. > :27:53.investigated by the Assembly's Standards Commissioner. What is
:27:53. > :27:56.that about? After a night out with other Assembly members and
:27:56. > :28:00.political figures, Keith Davies, after going to to a bar in Cardiff,
:28:00. > :28:04.ended up at a five-star hotel in Cardiff Bay, where he was staying.
:28:04. > :28:06.At some point during the early hours of the morning, staff at the
:28:06. > :28:11.hotel contacted the Assembly authorities, who had arranged for
:28:11. > :28:14.him to stay there, expressing concerns about his behaviour. We do
:28:14. > :28:17.not know much more, but the Standards Commissioner of the
:28:18. > :28:21.Assembly is looking into it and can perhaps shed some light on this
:28:21. > :28:28.mysterious story. Everyone is scratching their heads as to how he
:28:28. > :28:32.ended up in such a situation. you. That is it for this week. The
:28:32. > :28:35.e-mail address is on the screen if you want to get in touch. We are