Assembly Election Part 1

:00:00. > :00:00.studio with a look ahead to tonight's results programme.

:00:00. > :00:12.We will be here from 11:45pm and we will be carrying on through the

:00:13. > :00:17.night. After all, it is the biggest test of electoral opinion across the

:00:18. > :00:21.UK before the next general election. We will have results from the

:00:22. > :00:25.Scottish parliament, the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland, more

:00:26. > :00:29.than 100 local councils in England and city mayors including the London

:00:30. > :00:32.mayor. Viewers in Scotland and Wales will have their own coverage and we

:00:33. > :00:33.should get some early results before midnight.

:00:34. > :00:35.Election coverage for viewers in Scotland and Wales

:00:36. > :00:54.Welcome to election Wells, 2016, we will watch all of Wales to see who

:00:55. > :00:59.has won for you live. We'll bring you the results, the surprises, the

:01:00. > :01:03.ups and downs. As Wales takes shape we bring you all the reaction. Stay

:01:04. > :01:22.with us for election Wales 2016. And this is where we will be

:01:23. > :01:31.throughout the night. As we find out how Wales has voted and who are the

:01:32. > :01:39.winners and losers. Good evening. And welcome to election night, live

:01:40. > :01:42.on BBC One Wales and radio Wales. We are on a until 9 AM tomorrow, we

:01:43. > :01:48.will know the political shape of Wales for the next 5 years. He will

:01:49. > :01:50.be making the big decisions about your jobs, schools and hospitals.

:01:51. > :02:02.Join us tonight on social media... After 17 years in charge will Carwyn

:02:03. > :02:06.Jones and Welsh Labour win again and if so, will they have enough seats

:02:07. > :02:11.to form a government on their own? The Welsh Conservative leader Andrew

:02:12. > :02:14.RT Davies and Leanne Wood are pushing hard, Kirsty Williams and

:02:15. > :02:21.the Liberal Democrats, could they face by bike? Nathan Gill and you'd

:02:22. > :02:26.Ukip, the new kids on the block. And did tonight signal a breakthrough

:02:27. > :02:32.for the Greens and their leader Alice Hooker-Stroud. The polls have

:02:33. > :02:38.suggested this election could be closer than any before. What can we

:02:39. > :02:44.expect? Politicians left the Senate weeks ago so we have talked away in

:02:45. > :02:46.for the evening and all night, we will guide you through the numbers

:02:47. > :02:53.aren't what they mean for you, the parties and for Wales. Let's cross

:02:54. > :02:59.over to the magic carpet in Cardiff Bay! Thank you and welcome to the

:03:00. > :03:05.beautiful Senate building, home to the virtual reality graphics set,

:03:06. > :03:08.also the end of the road for 60 of the hundreds of candidates for the

:03:09. > :03:14.assembly election. We be opening up the floor and as the results come

:03:15. > :03:17.in, we will fill up the seats with the new assembly members and when we

:03:18. > :03:23.know who is in and out, who has won and lost I will be able to show you

:03:24. > :03:25.why that affects the political make-up and geographical landscape

:03:26. > :03:32.of Wales for the next 5 years. Thank you. Other boxes began arriving in

:03:33. > :03:37.counting centres across Wales about 30 minutes ago, a huge operation

:03:38. > :03:40.involving thousands of people. Candidates and parties, it's a

:03:41. > :03:46.waiting game and file we wait, there is plenty to talk about. What, if

:03:47. > :03:51.anything made you vote today? Jason Mohammed will find out in the spin

:03:52. > :03:55.room... Jason... A very good evening. Welcome to the spin room,

:03:56. > :04:00.we will discuss all the big issues for education to hospitals, jobs,

:04:01. > :04:07.the economy and there is no escaping the big debate on Europe. I'll chat

:04:08. > :04:11.to lots of my guests here and also some of the BBC generation 2016

:04:12. > :04:15.young voters, I am entrusting them with social media, they will tell me

:04:16. > :04:18.what is hot and what is not. Throughout the night some of the

:04:19. > :04:24.biggest names in Welsh politics will join us in the studio. Facing up to

:04:25. > :04:27.the message of the ballot box and Felicity Evans will give them no

:04:28. > :04:34.wriggle room on her supper... They wouldn't get too cosy here on the

:04:35. > :04:37.sofa but election night is very much like a school disco, everyone is

:04:38. > :04:41.overexcited, they have talked about nothing else for weeks but as the

:04:42. > :04:46.evening wears on, people get tired and emotional, the slow songs start

:04:47. > :04:50.to play and none of us want to be a wallflower, there could be tears

:04:51. > :04:54.before bedtime. There may well be. Thank you. Where would BB without

:04:55. > :05:02.the people who love analysing swings and turnouts? We will be joined by

:05:03. > :05:06.some wise woman later, but some wise men, Professor Richard Wyn Jones and

:05:07. > :05:11.Nick Servini. A great deal of unpredictability. We will crunch

:05:12. > :05:17.through the smaller details and looking at how it forms the bigger

:05:18. > :05:22.picture. And I expect a night of close margins in constituencies

:05:23. > :05:27.throughout Wales. We will look to Scotland, the SNP, it seems to be...

:05:28. > :05:31.Nailed on that they will win but the battle for 2nd between Labour and

:05:32. > :05:35.the Conservatives, and 4th, tween the Green party the Liberal

:05:36. > :05:38.Democrats is hot and we have some interesting local elections in

:05:39. > :05:42.England and we will keep an eye on. Thank you and as we look back at the

:05:43. > :05:47.big issues of this campaign and how they affect the results tonight we

:05:48. > :05:53.will be joined I are health and economy experts. Throughout the

:05:54. > :05:57.campaign Port Talbot steel was like a magnet to politicians as they

:05:58. > :06:01.wanted to make clear how much they support the steel industry. But on

:06:02. > :06:06.the doorstep you tell us that you want better living standards, better

:06:07. > :06:12.wages and better connectivity. Yes, long waiting times, shortages of

:06:13. > :06:15.staff, management problems, changes to local services, the politicians

:06:16. > :06:20.have argued lots about health and you tell us it is your priority. But

:06:21. > :06:26.have any of them convinced you they have the remedy? It really is a

:06:27. > :06:30.super Thursday the elections. Today we have seen the vote for the

:06:31. > :06:33.Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly, London Mayor, and

:06:34. > :06:37.Police and Crime Commissioner is, amongst them. They are not all

:06:38. > :06:39.counting to night and we will bring you the view from Westminster and

:06:40. > :06:44.results from Scotland. Before we hear from our Parliamentary

:06:45. > :06:53.correspondent let's head to Glasgow and our reporter there. Good

:06:54. > :07:00.evening. Accounting has started in Glasgow. 15 seats up for grabs, but

:07:01. > :07:03.hundred and 29 across Scotland, the expectation that the SNP will take

:07:04. > :07:09.more than half of those and so the SNP will once again get a majority

:07:10. > :07:17.in Holyrood, as they did 5 years ago. -- 129. Political pundits here

:07:18. > :07:22.tell you that the question is how big the majority will be and

:07:23. > :07:26.secondly, who will win the race for runner-up? Labour have been so

:07:27. > :07:30.dominant in Scotland over the decades, will they slide into 3rd

:07:31. > :07:34.place behind the Conservatives? Is it promises to be an intriguing and

:07:35. > :07:43.fascinating night once again. We will keep you updated. Thank you.

:07:44. > :07:51.David... Tonight, the biggest test yet for the leadership of Germany

:07:52. > :07:55.Corbyn, 8 months in, more than 2700 seats in councils, 124 councils

:07:56. > :07:59.across England being fought. These were last fought four years ago,

:08:00. > :08:04.Labour under Ed Miliband did well. You might expect Labour would fall

:08:05. > :08:09.back slightly, Germany Corbyn says no, Labour or in the business of

:08:10. > :08:13.winning more seats. A big test for him, and in London, the big prize,

:08:14. > :08:22.who will be the new Boris Johnson, will it be Siddique can't, or will

:08:23. > :08:28.it be Sako Smith? Lots to play for. -- Zac Goldsmith. The party leaders

:08:29. > :08:35.voted today and we will be live at counting centres across the country.

:08:36. > :08:38.Let's go 1st to Labour leader Carwyn Jones in Bridgend, and his count

:08:39. > :08:45.there. It's all systems go in Bridgend. No signs of Carwyn Jones

:08:46. > :08:52.yet but he knows it will be a long and late night. He is confident of

:08:53. > :08:54.defending his Bridgend constituency, majority of 6800 last time, a

:08:55. > :08:59.different sort of arithmetic worrying him. Labour have been in

:09:00. > :09:07.the doldrums in the opinion polls, down to 33%. The worst lowest ebb

:09:08. > :09:11.since 2010, how will that translate to the actual vote, the number of

:09:12. > :09:16.seats they will have tomorrow? Less than 30 and he is going to be

:09:17. > :09:22.talking about compromises and coalitions, more than 30, he is home

:09:23. > :09:28.and try, 2007, his predecessor Rhodri Morgan, 26, forced into

:09:29. > :09:31.coalition with Plaid Cymru, Carwyn Jones won't want to have that

:09:32. > :09:39.discussion tonight or tomorrow. 2 other counts here as well, briefly,

:09:40. > :09:42.the Ogmore assembly seat, Hugh Davies standing there are

:09:43. > :09:49.relinquishing his Westminster seat, and we have a by-election, by the

:09:50. > :09:55.way, we are expecting that result 1st, somewhere after midnight. In

:09:56. > :09:59.the Cardiff can't we will hear whether the Conservative leader

:10:00. > :10:07.Andrew RT Davies has secured a regional seat and a return ticket to

:10:08. > :10:10.the assembly. -- the Cardiff count. The expectation is he will be

:10:11. > :10:15.returned for a 3rd time as a regional member for the South Wales

:10:16. > :10:18.Central region. But the question is will he suffered potentially the

:10:19. > :10:24.same fate as his predecessor, he will be worried about that, in 2011,

:10:25. > :10:28.is predecessor lost his regional seat because the party made

:10:29. > :10:31.constituency gains, if the Welsh Conservatives have particularly good

:10:32. > :10:36.night and in this region pick-up target seats from Labour, such as

:10:37. > :10:39.Cardiff North, which by the way, I hear is in play but the

:10:40. > :10:43.Conservatives and the Vale of Glamorgan... Andrew Arty Davies

:10:44. > :10:47.might start to sweat over his own regional seat. As for the party,

:10:48. > :10:53.currently 14 seats, the official opposition in the assembly and the

:10:54. > :10:57.challenge for him is clear, continue a run that has seen them increase

:10:58. > :11:02.the number of seats in the Senate in every single assembly election to

:11:03. > :11:06.date. If they do that, party officials say it's been a fantastic

:11:07. > :11:11.night for the party but if he fails to do that, and they fall back,

:11:12. > :11:17.perhaps to 3rd... Then they admit perhaps the knives could be out for

:11:18. > :11:21.Andrew RT Davies. 1 of the biggest contest is in the Rhondda, Plaid

:11:22. > :11:29.Cymru leader Leanne Wood is taking on 1 of the big beasts of the Labour

:11:30. > :11:34.Party. A year into the job as leader, Leanne Wood made a speech

:11:35. > :11:37.four years ago, saying she would be standing in the Rhondda, taking a

:11:38. > :11:41.massive gamble with her political career, at the time candidates could

:11:42. > :11:47.not stand on the regional list and in the constituency. That gamble may

:11:48. > :11:51.be more slight, but she is risking the reputation this evening, taking

:11:52. > :11:56.on Leighton Andrews, public services Minister, 1 of the big beasts of

:11:57. > :12:02.Labour, won the seat 5 years ago with 63% of the vote, twice as many

:12:03. > :12:08.as Plaid Cymru. If Leanne Wood does not win here tonight, she needs to

:12:09. > :12:13.make a big dent in it to make this gamble worthwhile. Nationally,

:12:14. > :12:19.Leanne Wood wants to be the First Minister leading ape-like Comrie

:12:20. > :12:22.government, the polls suggesting that this not likely to happen. --

:12:23. > :12:32.leading an applied Comrie government. The Conservatives in 2nd

:12:33. > :12:35.place... Plaid Cymru winning 11, the worst election result, that needs to

:12:36. > :12:41.change for Leanne Wood to have a happy week, going forward. We heard

:12:42. > :12:45.from James at the Cardiff count, the knives may be at the Conservative

:12:46. > :12:53.leader if he can see Plaid Cymru into 2nd, the same truth or Leanne

:12:54. > :12:57.Wood. Thank you. The Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams is hoping to hang on

:12:58. > :13:04.to her seat in Brecon and Radnorshire. That's right, all eyes

:13:05. > :13:09.will be an Kirsty Williams. She bids to hold onto the seat she has held

:13:10. > :13:14.since the assembly inception back in 1999. The Lib Dems took a battering

:13:15. > :13:18.in the Westminster elections last year, the Conservatives breaking

:13:19. > :13:21.their 18 year stranglehold here, some predicting another testing

:13:22. > :13:28.evening for the Lib Dems nationwide. And Kirsty Williams competition is

:13:29. > :13:33.likely to come from Gary Price, the Conservative candidate. He actually

:13:34. > :13:38.stood for Plaid Cymru 5 years ago. This is 1 of the seats the Tories

:13:39. > :13:42.have targeted this year, a rural constituency, geographically the

:13:43. > :13:46.largest in Wales, with the Lib Dems under pressure nationwide, Kirsty

:13:47. > :13:52.Williams, who isn't on the regional list, she will be desperate to

:13:53. > :13:56.secure a 3rd successive win. We will get the North Wales regional

:13:57. > :14:04.result... And find out if Ukip Wales leader Nathan Gill has made to

:14:05. > :14:08.Cardiff Bay. That is right. Nathan Gill, 1st on the regional list in

:14:09. > :14:12.North Wales, support for his party remaining impressively robust

:14:13. > :14:17.throughout the election campaign. If you trust the pollsters, they say

:14:18. > :14:22.you could see a Ukip member entering the assembly in Cardiff Bay in large

:14:23. > :14:27.numbers, 8- 9 seats of the prediction, the party leader at a UK

:14:28. > :14:31.level, more cautious, he says 5- 6 would be a good night. The party

:14:32. > :14:35.targeting traditional Labour strongholds, industrial heartlands

:14:36. > :14:40.like here in the north-east. It would be a mark about to see that

:14:41. > :14:44.many Ukip members entering the assembly, given that we haven't had

:14:45. > :14:47.a single 1 entering the assembly in its history so far and there has

:14:48. > :14:50.been a fractious internal rather than the party over who should be

:14:51. > :14:55.selected as a candidate for this assembly election. Speaking to party

:14:56. > :14:59.supporters on the ground, they are positive and up beet, they say it's

:15:00. > :15:03.been a good campaign but they are holding back because they say they

:15:04. > :15:07.have been in this position so often, so much has been promised ahead of

:15:08. > :15:12.the election and on the night things don't go their way. But they are

:15:13. > :15:16.saying they think it's advantageous that the EU debate has been running

:15:17. > :15:19.alongside this assembly election campaign, they said they'd been able

:15:20. > :15:22.to engage with voters who aren't that bothered about assembly

:15:23. > :15:25.politics and they've been able to say to them, there is this other

:15:26. > :15:28.thing happening in the 5th of May, why don't you turn out and vote?

:15:29. > :15:34.They say that message is cutting through. Thank you, what about the

:15:35. > :15:37.Green party? Are leader Alice Hooker-Stroud is hoping to secure a

:15:38. > :15:42.regional seat and we will get that result in Llanelli.

:15:43. > :15:50.Jones to that is right. Alice Hooker-Stroud here in Llanelli is

:15:51. > :15:55.hoping for a win. She is one of the youngest and newest political

:15:56. > :16:00.leaders in the UK. She only replaced Pippa Bartolotti last September. She

:16:01. > :16:05.has impressed. See held her own in the debate and is confident of a

:16:06. > :16:08.win. Unsurprisingly Nathalie benefit the leader of the Greens in England

:16:09. > :16:13.and Wales agrees. She is confident she will have that win and is also

:16:14. > :16:19.hoping for three green AMs in the Senedd. They haven't got any at the

:16:20. > :16:25.moment. Any news, we will give it to you. Our experts and politicians are

:16:26. > :16:30.chomping at the bit ready to share their views. Before we hear from

:16:31. > :16:37.them, R Wynn Jones will flag up what we need to look at and where. Thank

:16:38. > :16:40.you. We will look at the performances of the parties in

:16:41. > :16:44.previous elections and then look ahead to what we can expect this

:16:45. > :16:50.evening. Let's open up the floor and show you the chamber. And revealed

:16:51. > :16:55.the results of the 2011 elections. Labour is the largest party on the

:16:56. > :17:00.30 Assembly members. Not having enough to cross that threshold into

:17:01. > :17:05.a majority of 31. The second largest party the Conservatives, the main

:17:06. > :17:12.opposition parties, 14 AMs for them. In third place was Plaid Cymru with

:17:13. > :17:16.11. Bear in mind, the colour has changed. Not their traditional

:17:17. > :17:20.green. You look in the chamber and the map is aware that in mind.

:17:21. > :17:24.Before the party, the Lib Dems in fourth place with five Assembly

:17:25. > :17:29.members. That is how it looked at 2011. That is history so let's get

:17:30. > :17:35.rid of that. That's look back a little bit further. Back to the

:17:36. > :17:39.earliest collections in 1999. The co-interesting it was. The battle

:17:40. > :17:46.for first place. How close Plaid Cymru word to the Labour Party back

:17:47. > :17:49.then. After that, there is a bit of to and fro in terms of the level of

:17:50. > :17:55.support for the Labour Party but they keep that situation, dominant

:17:56. > :18:00.in Welsh politics. Both share of the vote and also number of Assembly

:18:01. > :18:05.members. It is always interesting befuddle for second place. The race.

:18:06. > :18:12.Plaid Cymru in 1999 miles ahead of the Conservatives. 17%. Look what

:18:13. > :18:17.happens from election to election. The Conservatives gaining more and

:18:18. > :18:22.more support. At the same time Plaid Cymru losing support in pretty much

:18:23. > :18:27.all of these elections until you get to 2011. The Conservatives overtake

:18:28. > :18:31.Plaid Cymru into second place as the main opposition party. That is the

:18:32. > :18:35.history. That is how things have so far. You wanted to know what happens

:18:36. > :18:40.tonight, let's see what could change. My list of the most marginal

:18:41. > :18:49.seats in Wales. These are the on paper at least most likely to change

:18:50. > :18:54.hands. The list, Cardiff Central, Llanelli and Carmarthen West. Top of

:18:55. > :18:58.the list Cardiff Central. Labour won it in 2011 but only 38 votes ahead

:18:59. > :19:03.of the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems hope they can take that from Labour this

:19:04. > :19:08.evening. We go a little bit further west. We have got Cadan ap Tomos.

:19:09. > :19:13.Labour held the seventh 2011. This went back and forth several times

:19:14. > :19:19.between Plaid Cymru and labour. Played by hoping they can take that.

:19:20. > :19:24.Then you have Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire here. The

:19:25. > :19:27.Conservatives here in 2011. What is interesting here because of that

:19:28. > :19:31.Plaid Cymru and labour in second and third place. This is a 3-way

:19:32. > :19:36.marginal. Always interesting on the night. Where the Conservatives are

:19:37. > :19:41.defending. The Tories will be hoping to make some gains. Top of their

:19:42. > :19:45.list will be Cardiff North. Labour held that in 2011. The Conservatives

:19:46. > :19:51.have got the MP there so they will be hoping to turn Cardiff North Tory

:19:52. > :19:54.blue. They will also be looking at somewhere like Ceredigion Brechin

:19:55. > :20:01.and Radnorshire. Full stop that would be a huge scalp. Also hopeful

:20:02. > :20:04.in the state traditional Labour strongholds of the industrial

:20:05. > :20:12.north-east of Wales. Last year in the General Election they took the

:20:13. > :20:15.Vale of Clwyd from Labour. They are also talking about Wrexham. If that

:20:16. > :20:19.happens it would be terrible for Labour and great with the

:20:20. > :20:22.Conservatives. We will wait and see. I haven't mentioned UKIP that and

:20:23. > :20:27.the reason for that, despite that we have been talking so much about

:20:28. > :20:31.making games and getting the first representatives, why is that? We're

:20:32. > :20:34.not talking about the 40 constituencies, referring to UKIP

:20:35. > :20:45.making games, we are looking at the five regions. 40 constituency AMs,

:20:46. > :20:48.20 regional AMs. In 2011 and you had to North Wales where the

:20:49. > :20:55.Conservatives were doing pretty well. Then the massive swathes of

:20:56. > :21:01.land with mid and West Wales. Labour were doing quite well there in 2011.

:21:02. > :21:05.I will go through the three South Wales coast is if you like, we have

:21:06. > :21:09.gone South Wales west, South Wales Central and South Wales East where

:21:10. > :21:13.the Conservatives were doing quite well, sharing the seat there was

:21:14. > :21:17.Plaid Cymru. It is on these five regions that we are expecting UKIP

:21:18. > :21:23.to make gains. According to the opinion polls they could be looking

:21:24. > :21:27.at at least one game in each of the five regions. We think about which

:21:28. > :21:30.parties tend to be at the bottom of those regional lists, it tends to be

:21:31. > :21:35.Lib Dems and the Conservatives. That is why they are the most vulnerable

:21:36. > :21:39.parties when it comes to the rise of UKIP. Tonight we are talking about

:21:40. > :21:43.seats changing hands. Don't just look at this pretty colourful

:21:44. > :21:46.constituencies here. Also bear in mind the 20 regional AMs because

:21:47. > :21:49.that is what might decide which party has a good night tonight and

:21:50. > :21:56.which party has a disappointing night. Bethan. Thank you very much.

:21:57. > :22:01.Plenty to talk about there. Let's touch base with Nick and Richard.

:22:02. > :22:05.Nick, polls closed 15 minutes ago. Social media and sources are

:22:06. > :22:10.swirling. What are you picking up? A range of phone calls just before we

:22:11. > :22:13.came on air. Labour sound twitchy to me. Pretty nervous about the number

:22:14. > :22:20.of marginal seats that we have spoken about. A marked difference in

:22:21. > :22:24.tone with the Conservatives who were pointing to a huge telephone

:22:25. > :22:28.canvassing operation, for example, in Wales, over 150 people hitting

:22:29. > :22:33.the phones in the canvassing operation looking at those who had

:22:34. > :22:37.given pledges early on. Some cold calling. An example they say of a

:22:38. > :22:43.very effective on the ground operation. Plaid in terms of the

:22:44. > :22:47.mood music seem to be pretty solid, straight down the middle. The Lib

:22:48. > :22:52.Dems are very pessimistic about what is going to happen tonight. They

:22:53. > :22:56.were saying even if they get close to where they were five years ago,

:22:57. > :23:01.it is not good enough because of the impact on UKIP and how it could dent

:23:02. > :23:06.their votes. We don't have an exit poll tonight as we had a very

:23:07. > :23:10.surprising one a year ago, Richard. But we do have a pole and it is at

:23:11. > :23:18.Cardiff University. Talk through that. It is at Cardiff -- Cardiff

:23:19. > :23:22.University. We have gone back to the people who were pulled yesterday.

:23:23. > :23:27.The people we have spoken to regularly over the last few weeks as

:23:28. > :23:33.part of a broader survey. We asked them what have they done to date.

:23:34. > :23:39.The story is essentially very little change from the polls. It is all

:23:40. > :23:44.margin of error stuff. If you do the projection, the numbers are Labour

:23:45. > :23:51.27, Plaid Cymru 12, Conservatives 11. Plaid Cymru just ahead of the

:23:52. > :23:57.Conservatives. UKIP on yet. Lib Dems on a perhaps optimistic too. I think

:23:58. > :24:04.there needs to be a note of caution -- two. We haven't had any except

:24:05. > :24:08.Cardiff University doing any polling. We have got nothing to

:24:09. > :24:12.compare this with. You mentioned the polling last year. It wasn't bad in

:24:13. > :24:23.Wales but overall the picture wasn't great. The margins are very fine

:24:24. > :24:27.here. Arwyn was telling us, for the last seats on the list you could be

:24:28. > :24:35.talking of a few dozen hundred votes. The margins are very fine

:24:36. > :24:41.here. We just have one quote in from Nathan Gill. I don't know what we

:24:42. > :24:48.can bring it up. 16% projected for Wales. He is responding to the poll,

:24:49. > :24:52.the leader of UKIP in Wales. Giving us an amazing eight AMs. We shall

:24:53. > :24:57.see. They would be thrilled with that, wouldn't they? It would be a

:24:58. > :25:03.totally remarkable result for a party to come in. The Liberal

:25:04. > :25:06.Democrats in their heyday were not getting eight. That would be an

:25:07. > :25:11.enormous success. A big stride forward for them. Not only in Wales

:25:12. > :25:16.but the UK because for the first time it would give UKIP a

:25:17. > :25:20.legislature base which is not in Europe, which is frankly not wearing

:25:21. > :25:24.UKIP want to be. This would be a big breakthrough for UKIP not only in

:25:25. > :25:28.Wales but across the UK. We have asked ourselves the question, will

:25:29. > :25:32.be UKIP voters turn out this week? We know they insist used by the

:25:33. > :25:38.European referendum. Will they be induced enough to actually come out

:25:39. > :25:41.and vote in the Assembly campaign? A projection like that, a suggestion

:25:42. > :25:46.that they have shown up and they have teamed up with that proves to

:25:47. > :25:52.be true. If Labour were to get 27 as that suggests to be true, what would

:25:53. > :25:58.it be like for Labour? We are talking about the seat projection,

:25:59. > :26:03.we come back to the Welsh electoral system and its strangeness. The

:26:04. > :26:06.figures under the bonnet in terms of the percentage support for Labour

:26:07. > :26:13.suggest Labour have lost around a quarter of their votes since 2011.

:26:14. > :26:23.That is a huge drop-off in support and yet only losing three seats net.

:26:24. > :26:27.This is a very East stick it... It favours the Labour Party. To lose a

:26:28. > :26:31.quarter of your vote and yet only lose three seats is quite

:26:32. > :26:36.remarkable. We will get onto the voting system I am sure. Thank you,

:26:37. > :26:42.gentlemen. Let's go over to the server. Thank you. Welcome. With me

:26:43. > :26:49.for the next couple of hours to keep the company. I will introduce case

:26:50. > :26:54.when Byrne is the Welsh Euro MP for the Conservatives. Jenny Rathbone

:26:55. > :27:01.for the Conservatives. I beg your pardon, Jenny Willott. Forgive me.

:27:02. > :27:07.Let's hope the evening doesn't go on like that or it will be very

:27:08. > :27:17.confusing for all of us. Here on my left, Stephen Dowty. Alex from UKIP

:27:18. > :27:20.and Jonathan Edwards for Carmarthenshire is. Let me start

:27:21. > :27:23.with you, Alex, you're the new kid on the block. You have just seen

:27:24. > :27:28.that breed from your party leader Nathan Gill talking about a

:27:29. > :27:34.potential eight seats. You have been expected to do very well. How good

:27:35. > :27:38.is good for you? We are coming for a position of not having AMs. Getting

:27:39. > :27:44.five which is anything but we would expect to bat at a minimum. It is an

:27:45. > :27:49.incredible 500% increase. With a 1-party guaranteed to be very happy

:27:50. > :27:52.at the end of the night. Looking at extra seats, with the De Haan

:27:53. > :27:58.system, it is very interdependent on how parties perform, it is difficult

:27:59. > :28:03.to say we'll get six, seven, eight. Anything else is a bonus. How would

:28:04. > :28:07.you sum up the campaign you have had? Because it seems you have had a

:28:08. > :28:10.disastrous campaign on the surface with problems coalescing around your

:28:11. > :28:16.party leader but apparently nothing that has gone wrong seems to have

:28:17. > :28:21.dented your support with voters. It has potentially had its band sounds

:28:22. > :28:29.internally but those things haven't necessarily affected the voters. Why

:28:30. > :28:31.do you think that is? Outside the political bubble, rifts and

:28:32. > :28:34.disagreements are not interesting to the voters. They go out there and

:28:35. > :28:37.decide what they want to happen in the next government. They look at

:28:38. > :28:43.policies, they are listening to the messages of the party. UKIP has been

:28:44. > :28:47.on an upward trajectory for quite a few years. After the General

:28:48. > :28:51.Election, third biggest party in the country they are. We are bringing

:28:52. > :28:54.that legacy forward into the Welsh Assembly elections and hopefully we

:28:55. > :28:59.will get or first political stronghold here. We will look

:29:00. > :29:03.forward to getting the meat of the results in due course. Stephen

:29:04. > :29:08.Dowty. It is a difficult campaign for Labour as the incumbent party

:29:09. > :29:12.for the last 17 years. This campaign has been hung around the shoulder of

:29:13. > :29:15.Carwyn Jones your leader and First Minister. How much pressure is on

:29:16. > :29:20.him given the chapati is defending a high watermark from 2011? You're

:29:21. > :29:27.right. It was a high water mark. It is always going to be tough. Let's

:29:28. > :29:30.not forget that in the rest Assembly elections, a few hundred votes

:29:31. > :29:34.either way would have seen the type of seat projections we are seeing

:29:35. > :29:39.tonight. I think it is going to be very close. Lead don't think anybody

:29:40. > :29:42.do that. Carwyn Jones throughout has been the only credible First

:29:43. > :29:46.Minister candidate and has had a very successful campaign. I think he

:29:47. > :29:49.has come across very strongly even in the days up until the dissolution

:29:50. > :29:53.of the Assembly fighting in the steel industry. I think he has been

:29:54. > :29:57.very popular and very personable and speaking on the right issues. We

:29:58. > :30:01.have to wait and see if the votes are counted but it will be very

:30:02. > :30:05.close. How many see classes are acceptable do you think a given this

:30:06. > :30:14.campaign has been hung around him? -- losses. The electoral system

:30:15. > :30:20.means we are unlikely to take many seats and the regional lists. The

:30:21. > :30:27.party -- the Paul Tonight Show is there hasn't been a breakthrough for

:30:28. > :30:31.the major parties. The reality is we still expect to be the largest party

:30:32. > :30:34.in forming a government after the results are counted. If the polls

:30:35. > :30:39.are right and we take them with a health warning after last year but

:30:40. > :30:43.if you are seeing a collapse in the vote as suggested, that is damaging

:30:44. > :30:47.to your party. That is serious business even if it isn't reflected

:30:48. > :30:50.in the number of seats. I don't know the figures that Richard is

:30:51. > :30:55.referring to. This is on the electoral system we have got and it

:30:56. > :30:57.results in people being elected on constituencies and people being

:30:58. > :31:00.elected regional lists and being a foreign government or not. He has

:31:01. > :31:04.come across as the only credible First Minister. That is what matters

:31:05. > :31:10.to people when they are forming a government.

:31:11. > :31:16.Jonathan Edwards, we talk about pressure on leaders, how much

:31:17. > :31:20.pressure is Leanne Wood under to deliver a good performance? She had

:31:21. > :31:26.a bad election last year... How long can this on with Leanne Wood

:31:27. > :31:32.remaining leader? Her position is completely secure. Stephen talks

:31:33. > :31:36.about the popularity of Carwyn Jones but he trails in the opinion polls,

:31:37. > :31:41.stratospherically behind Leanne Wood, she is by far the most popular

:31:42. > :31:48.politician in Wales. The position is there for her as long as she wants

:31:49. > :31:52.it, as far as I am concerned. Plaid Cymru, you are right, in 2011,

:31:53. > :31:57.difficult election, but this has more of the feel of 2007, we came

:31:58. > :32:08.off the back of a bad election in 2003. If it is more like that for me

:32:09. > :32:12.than 2011, then, the election was the second electoral priority for

:32:13. > :32:15.us, the referendum by far was more important for us in terms of

:32:16. > :32:21.strategic object is for the party, the country, and the election which

:32:22. > :32:28.followed a month after. This election is the key for us, and the

:32:29. > :32:32.impetus is to regain second place. I was going to ask about the fight for

:32:33. > :32:36.second place, in terms of seats and sure of the vote or will you do the

:32:37. > :32:40.politician trick and claim which are the most favourable is the one you

:32:41. > :32:47.were looking for. It's all about seats and security. If you don't

:32:48. > :32:50.regain that, surely... The proof of that pudding is in the eating and

:32:51. > :32:55.the eating Whidbey, you would be in second party place? I am enthused by

:32:56. > :33:01.the campaign that we run, I think by far we have the best manifesto, the

:33:02. > :33:05.Labour Party manifesto is 24 pages, no pledges, nothing worth in it, we

:33:06. > :33:09.have over 200 pages of clear policies. They don't have pledges,

:33:10. > :33:14.whether you agree with them is another matter... It's by far the

:33:15. > :33:20.best group of politicians coming through, we have the most talented.

:33:21. > :33:24.The party has run a very professional campaign, there has

:33:25. > :33:28.been great work on the ground, the one thing we need to do is break

:33:29. > :33:31.through and improve the infrastructure on the ground. Here

:33:32. > :33:35.tonight, I had never been more convinced that we will one day when

:33:36. > :33:40.the Welsh general election, I am convinced. You think it's tonight?

:33:41. > :33:45.Nearly not... We will talk more in the second. For the Conservative...

:33:46. > :33:50.It's the talk and the fight for second place. Your leader under

:33:51. > :33:54.pressure? In fairness, we have focused on the manifesto and the

:33:55. > :33:57.pledges. On a very positive campaign and I think that's the way we should

:33:58. > :34:02.be running the election here in Wales. There have been issues,

:34:03. > :34:06.obviously other things on a national basis throughout the UK that have

:34:07. > :34:10.maybe come along to try and deflect things but we tried very hard to

:34:11. > :34:16.keep the message on Wales, the wealth issues and things that Welsh

:34:17. > :34:20.voters need to consider. After 17 years of what we considered to be a

:34:21. > :34:24.failed Labour government. He succeeded someone who took the party

:34:25. > :34:30.to the best ever assembly results in 2011 and in this campaign, David

:34:31. > :34:34.Cameron, the National UK leader of the party, didn't even have public

:34:35. > :34:38.opportunity with him. That's not quite true, he was in Wales, further

:34:39. > :34:43.you were there for the photos are not and he has been in Wales... It's

:34:44. > :34:47.been busy too, the real thing for me... He didn't shake his hand for

:34:48. > :34:52.the camera. The political strategist... George Osborne, when

:34:53. > :34:56.he came to the city, and talked about him being the next First

:34:57. > :34:59.Minister of Wales, repeatedly, that is how much regard Andrew is held

:35:00. > :35:02.within the party and we shouldn't trivialise the issues, when David

:35:03. > :35:07.Cameron comes to Wales, he comes for a purpose and that usually isn't

:35:08. > :35:12.about electioneering. The other day when he came, it was about Tata

:35:13. > :35:17.steel. If Plaid Cymru Beach at a second place, is Ian trouble? I

:35:18. > :35:24.don't think it's about leaders. -- beats you. We should concentrate on

:35:25. > :35:27.what is important to voters. We have had strong leaders in the leaders

:35:28. > :35:32.debate showing their faces and I think it's up to those people who

:35:33. > :35:36.form the next assembly members and those political groups, to decide

:35:37. > :35:42.that. I don't think there's any danger whatsoever. Johnny Willett,

:35:43. > :35:48.the Liberal Democrats, is this a fight for survival? We had a

:35:49. > :35:53.difficult set of results. What has been amazing over the last year, we

:35:54. > :35:58.had a huge increase in membership across Wales and the amount of

:35:59. > :36:02.activity that's going on. -- Jenny Willett. I think it's going to be a

:36:03. > :36:08.difficult night, no point in pretending... Will your leader keep

:36:09. > :36:14.the receipt? I think Kirsty is an excellent leader, I think she's done

:36:15. > :36:18.and she's made an impact in the assembly over the past five years.

:36:19. > :36:22.Changing the law on nurses and actually making sure the Lib Dems

:36:23. > :36:27.have been able to influence the way things happen in Wales, way more

:36:28. > :36:32.than you would expect for a group size of five. We had a real impact,

:36:33. > :36:36.Kirsty a credit to the party. The fact that we are building from the

:36:37. > :36:44.bottom, we are growing, that gives us optimism for the future. David

:36:45. > :36:47.Bevan... We will talk about the assembly aspect in Jude course but

:36:48. > :36:52.give us a sense of what it has been like as a minority party, fighting

:36:53. > :37:01.this election. The biggest problem has been to get the message out. We

:37:02. > :37:06.have had very little media time... To be fair, the BBC have given us a

:37:07. > :37:15.view to minute slots here and there, ITV have given us nothing at all. We

:37:16. > :37:19.have sent a leaflet to 1.5 million households, every household in

:37:20. > :37:27.Wales, and that has stirred people up. I think... Facebook and Twitter

:37:28. > :37:35.probably is the way forward. But I am not an expert! I can see a new

:37:36. > :37:40.party, you allocate time on the media... Depending on how many votes

:37:41. > :37:48.you have, we didn't exist in the last election. But... In the

:37:49. > :37:54.referendum that set up the assembly, it was 50%... But the polls seem to

:37:55. > :37:58.have moved on somewhat since then and we will talk about that, I

:37:59. > :38:03.promise. And we will return to that, I promise. But for the moment, thank

:38:04. > :38:10.you very much. Beth come over to you. Thank you, we

:38:11. > :38:13.are hearing, the Conservatives are talking up several of the target

:38:14. > :38:20.seats. Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham, even Wrexham

:38:21. > :38:25.listened the Vale of Clwyd... Let's ask the horse's mouth, we have the

:38:26. > :38:29.leader of the party in Wales... I have been called many things... That

:38:30. > :38:36.is one of the nicest. You know what I mean. At least you are laughing,

:38:37. > :38:42.you are happy. I am always happy. Lizaad a good night for the Welsh

:38:43. > :38:45.Conservatives? We will have to wait and see, the electorate have had the

:38:46. > :38:51.chance to speak, a couple of minutes ago the opinion polls and the polls

:38:52. > :38:55.shot. The electorate will determine this outcome and the votes will be

:38:56. > :38:59.counted in the next few hours, we do not have long to wait, I am proud of

:39:00. > :39:03.the candidates in the field, the regions and the constituencies, I

:39:04. > :39:06.did my 36 hour tour at the beginning of the week and I have to say, the

:39:07. > :39:12.feeling we were getting was really positive. Are you hearing what we

:39:13. > :39:17.are hearing, you may be making breakthroughs... Tell me what you

:39:18. > :39:22.are hearing. Breakthroughs in the constituencies and not so well

:39:23. > :39:27.perhaps on the lists. That is the electoral system, you do well in the

:39:28. > :39:30.constituencies, you pay for it on the regional, our strategy has been

:39:31. > :39:34.to grow the constituency base, that will be for the electorate to

:39:35. > :39:38.determine. I am proud of the candidates, the policies we fielded,

:39:39. > :39:44.ultimately they have gained traction. We are racing ahead, I

:39:45. > :39:47.know, it's early. But let's say you were to take the Vale of Glamorgan

:39:48. > :39:50.and Cardiff Central, you, personally, would be vulnerable on

:39:51. > :39:58.the list, you would lose your seat? If we took Cardiff Central... If you

:39:59. > :40:03.took Cardiff Central... Cardiff North. That is the system, you put

:40:04. > :40:07.yourself forward. I would be pleased at the end of the night, to make

:40:08. > :40:11.sure the Welsh Conservative Party moves forward in Wales, because we

:40:12. > :40:16.are a team, we work together and as I said, I am immensely proud of what

:40:17. > :40:21.has gone on. It's what happened last time to your former leader and it

:40:22. > :40:28.could happen to you? You would be fine? OK... Richard... I can confirm

:40:29. > :40:34.my colleagues and I run the numbers and I am afraid, on the polling

:40:35. > :40:36.yesterday... Assuming the Conservatives would win Vale of

:40:37. > :40:42.Glamorgan and Cardiff North... Andrew would lose his seat, no

:40:43. > :40:47.doubt. It is very, very close and as I said at the start, the margins are

:40:48. > :40:51.tight but that is where we are with the numbers from yesterday. That is

:40:52. > :40:58.life. There would be life after politics. It will not really bother

:40:59. > :41:04.me. If you were to leave the assembly... There will be plenty of

:41:05. > :41:08.able people to take issues, politics is not about individuals, it's about

:41:09. > :41:11.policies and policies to improve the lives of people. If the poll is

:41:12. > :41:16.correct you are doing well on seats but you are losing, or the world you

:41:17. > :41:24.would be down three seats, from 14 to 11... That poll is pinch of salt

:41:25. > :41:29.territory. I have had the privilege to go round Wales and meet everyone

:41:30. > :41:33.of our candidates. Today, I have done seven target seats and the feel

:41:34. > :41:36.is positive and good. But it would be for the elected to determine,

:41:37. > :41:42.what I am proud about, the campaign we have run, the policies we put

:41:43. > :41:48.forward and if we are successful, we are successful, if not, that as

:41:49. > :41:52.elections. I have been out with you during the course of the campaign,

:41:53. > :41:57.how much of an issue has been a disagreement over the EU referendum

:41:58. > :42:03.for the Conservative Party? None at all. Very little talk about it, to

:42:04. > :42:06.be honest. Yes, people have raised the referendum but not the

:42:07. > :42:10.difference between myself and the Prime Minister. Because it's a

:42:11. > :42:15.referendum, we will all get a chance to vote in that, our votes will

:42:16. > :42:19.carry no more weight than any other individual, but what people want to

:42:20. > :42:23.talk about, especially in North Wales, there were nine ambulances

:42:24. > :42:29.outside Wrexham and D department, how people will improve the NHS for

:42:30. > :42:31.the community, how will make improvements in education, the

:42:32. > :42:38.economy... Those are the debating points. Thank you for popping in,

:42:39. > :42:45.perhaps you were popping in the morning? If I have no cars to milk!

:42:46. > :42:52.Thank you. Let's touch base with Jason in the spin room.

:42:53. > :42:56.Thank you, I have managed to drag three people away from the muffins

:42:57. > :43:01.and coffee and the orange juice. That will see us through to the

:43:02. > :43:05.early hours. Sarah Dickens, a very good radio friend of mine, we share

:43:06. > :43:12.a studio backing Radio Wales... We are reunited after ten years. Chris

:43:13. > :43:14.Sutton, from the CBI in Wales, and Carol Thomas who runs her own

:43:15. > :43:21.cleaning business in Swansea. Good evening to all of you. First of all,

:43:22. > :43:25.let's talk about the economy. Do you think, Sarah, a general overview,

:43:26. > :43:31.what has happened in Port Talbot has slightly overshadowed the political

:43:32. > :43:35.discussion? Obviously the politicians were really keen to make

:43:36. > :43:39.it clear they were fighting for steel and they think it's important

:43:40. > :43:43.to those communities. I think it's important in another way, it made us

:43:44. > :43:48.think about either industries that are so central to the economy that

:43:49. > :43:52.they need extra help? I think that's been an important point to think

:43:53. > :43:56.about, as a nation here, but as individuals, interestingly, we have

:43:57. > :44:03.got a Conservative UK Government suggesting that it could possibly

:44:04. > :44:08.fit in 25% of the stake in tattered state, that kind of language has not

:44:09. > :44:12.talked about since the 70s and that was happening while we talked about

:44:13. > :44:18.how to make the Welsh economy stronger. -- Tata steel. It's not

:44:19. > :44:22.just about Steve, it's about the industries we really need and what

:44:23. > :44:27.industry is important because of the jobs they bring. Chris, do you think

:44:28. > :44:31.a political party will come out of the steel crisis with glowing

:44:32. > :44:37.colours and maybe convince somebody to vote today for a certain party

:44:38. > :44:40.over strategy? I think it's good the UK Government has taken on the

:44:41. > :44:45.mantle, it's a structural industry for the UK economy and it needs to

:44:46. > :44:51.be lived that context but what I would say, it shows Wales's place in

:44:52. > :44:53.the world, when you get a shiver through the global economy, whether

:44:54. > :45:00.it's steel or alternatively go back 18 months, to the oil situation, in

:45:01. > :45:04.West Wales, actually sometimes things are bigger than the Welsh

:45:05. > :45:08.economy, we need to get the Welsh economy on a footing that compete

:45:09. > :45:11.globally, that is getting the right world class skills and

:45:12. > :45:17.infrastructure. Going from a global steel giant in Port Talbot to a

:45:18. > :45:21.slightly smaller business... Just down the Mfor in Swansea, you run a

:45:22. > :45:28.cleaning business, do you think the political leaders and the possible

:45:29. > :45:32.AM is that you have seen knocking on your door, have spoken to you, do

:45:33. > :45:36.you think they have done enough to convince you they will be the

:45:37. > :45:40.perfect politician running a small business? As a business owner, no.

:45:41. > :45:44.Obviously everything is in the manifesto and if you have the time

:45:45. > :45:46.to read that you can see which party is best for you but as a business

:45:47. > :45:53.owner, your time is focused elsewhere. There are things in there

:45:54. > :45:56.that affect us, but nobody I can see has come banging on my door saying

:45:57. > :46:02.this is how we will affect your future wages, business rates,

:46:03. > :46:04.premises rates... And they are creating a lot of new

:46:05. > :46:08.apprenticeships, so nobody has come out as saying we are creating a

:46:09. > :46:16.skilled workforce for your next generation of employees. And that's

:46:17. > :46:19.a large area that they could target. But it's interesting, OK, they

:46:20. > :46:25.haven't knocked door and talked about rates but in the message,

:46:26. > :46:27.there is early much from the Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Labour, talk of

:46:28. > :46:33.cutting business rates or maybe that has been lost?

:46:34. > :46:41.How many people sit down and read a manifesto? It is full of it printed

:46:42. > :46:46.so it is. I have never known apprenticeships to be such a sexy

:46:47. > :46:51.thing. Also business rates. If it hasn't been getting through to

:46:52. > :46:57.people running businesses... It is very complicated. You work in the

:46:58. > :47:01.property sector. It can be varied in lots of different ways but can it

:47:02. > :47:11.create stable funding the Government or does it incentivise economic

:47:12. > :47:18.activity. The message from the manifestos is will the worst small

:47:19. > :47:21.business rates, those small businesses will be more prosperous

:47:22. > :47:30.to stop it doesn't necessarily add up like that. You think some of the

:47:31. > :47:34.big news stories, like Aston Martin bring the new luxury SUV, do you

:47:35. > :47:38.think that will have had an impact? That shows we are a very attractive

:47:39. > :47:42.place to do business for some of these companies. Automotives in

:47:43. > :47:50.Wales are really good. Many components. To be making a car but

:47:51. > :47:55.also that the Aston Martin is here is a real badge for Wales to be able

:47:56. > :47:58.to say we have the right skills and economic climate to satisfy a

:47:59. > :48:03.demanding customer that looked all round the world. That won't solve

:48:04. > :48:06.it. One of the other stories that came out during the election time

:48:07. > :48:12.with the unemployment figures. The best we have had in Wales since 2008

:48:13. > :48:17.and now it is lower than in the UK. We still have the lowest wages. We

:48:18. > :48:21.are right on the bottom of average wages for different parts of the UK

:48:22. > :48:26.and we also produced the lowest amount of value, the goods and

:48:27. > :48:31.services that we make. We have the jobs but the messages of that is

:48:32. > :48:37.that clearly the jobs are low paid and low skilled. Chris, you and I

:48:38. > :48:41.both know how political polities work. When Aston Martin came out

:48:42. > :48:47.with his big headline, the spin doctors were robbing their hands

:48:48. > :48:50.saying they kept political capital out of this. Who will take credit

:48:51. > :48:58.for that and will they see any results denied? One party were in

:48:59. > :49:03.power when that was announced. There is... Camera and came down to here

:49:04. > :49:08.and announced that it was on the radar in terms of a site that was

:49:09. > :49:15.being released. Coming to Plaid and talking about rejuvenating a WDA.

:49:16. > :49:22.Some of the activity like land reclamation have gone. In the inward

:49:23. > :49:26.investment piece. That has come quite significantly in recent years.

:49:27. > :49:31.I would be interesting whether you think something like a Welsh

:49:32. > :49:34.development bank or WDA would feel relevant to you business. Do you

:49:35. > :49:39.think that would be there to help you? It is interesting. Sometime

:49:40. > :49:44.usually need that extra capital as a starter to text that the next level.

:49:45. > :49:49.On Aston Martin, I know in some manifestos they are aiming to get

:49:50. > :49:53.entrepreneurship into further education and higher education. That

:49:54. > :49:55.means we can keep graduates and put them into rules that are suitable

:49:56. > :49:58.for them and they aren't going further and that might develop them

:49:59. > :50:03.into smaller businesses that could then benefit from that type of

:50:04. > :50:08.banking system. We are also having a little bit of fun tonight. Given the

:50:09. > :50:11.fact that the European football championships are coming, we are

:50:12. > :50:16.proud Wales are part of this, and because I do this with the BBC in

:50:17. > :50:19.sporting context, what we have done is we have a lot of Assembly

:50:20. > :50:25.members. Will they still be Assembly members tonight, we don't know. We

:50:26. > :50:29.have decided to put together a Welsh political fantasy football team. We

:50:30. > :50:36.have picked out a goalkeeper. We need a goalkeeper. Kirsty Williams,

:50:37. > :50:42.Jane Hutt and also Elin Jones. These guys picked them out. We need a

:50:43. > :50:46.goalkeeper. We are looking at someone who has a real safe pair of

:50:47. > :50:51.hands who can dominate and dictate to the defence what they are going

:50:52. > :50:55.to do. I think it should be Jane Hutt because she has been in charge

:50:56. > :50:58.of the purse strings for Welsh Government for some time and she has

:50:59. > :51:02.held on tight. That is what you need. I don't know about football

:51:03. > :51:08.but she wants to get that ball and not let go. I like that. Are you

:51:09. > :51:11.free on a Saturday afternoon? I am looking for a big personality and I

:51:12. > :51:15.think Kirsty could dominate in that way but there is a gatekeeper

:51:16. > :51:24.element. The purse strings would be good. I am going for her as well for

:51:25. > :51:30.the financial aspect. We have the first name on the team sheet. Jane

:51:31. > :51:35.Hutt is the goalkeeper. I wondered how long it would be before you

:51:36. > :51:39.brought football in. We would be back to Jason very soon. If you're

:51:40. > :51:43.with us on BBC Radio Wales we're going to have a look at some

:51:44. > :51:50.pictures from the count in Karnataka on as they're coming in.

:51:51. > :52:06.This is the seat that he was representing since 1999. It has been

:52:07. > :52:12.Plaid throughout devolution. Sean Jones challenging. Let's go to

:52:13. > :52:18.Neath. Lots of counting going on. What exactly has been counted there?

:52:19. > :52:23.At the moment what is happening behind the IS papers had been

:52:24. > :52:32.arriving in the last hour so. -- is that the papers. The vote tally with

:52:33. > :52:36.the papers. I don't think outing was the cover some time yet. We are

:52:37. > :52:40.expecting any results from two o'clock three o'clock in the

:52:41. > :52:53.morning. There are camps for the Neath constituency. They will be

:52:54. > :53:02.getting a new Assembly mother. The Labour candidate Jeremy Miles is

:53:03. > :53:07.hoping to replace her. Gwenda Thomas had a big majority last time. It

:53:08. > :53:18.will be a big surprise if Labour don't... Also the Aberavon

:53:19. > :53:23.constituency. So, we are not expecting huge surprises here but a

:53:24. > :53:27.health warning, the last time I said there would be no surprises. Gower

:53:28. > :53:34.was lost to the Conservatives for Labour. They won by just 27 votes.

:53:35. > :53:37.When I said don't expect any surprises don't listen to me.

:53:38. > :53:44.Something to watch is Plaid Cymru and how they do in Aberavon. Bethan

:53:45. > :53:47.Jenkins is standing there and she is well-known in the area. She has been

:53:48. > :53:53.very involved in the discussions about the steel industry. Will that

:53:54. > :53:56.help boost the of Plaid Cymru? The steel crisis has dominated this

:53:57. > :54:01.election campaign. The future of the steelworks in Port Talbot. The

:54:02. > :54:06.steelworks dominate the skyline. It has dominated the campaign. We have

:54:07. > :54:10.had visits from Carwyn Jones and Jeremy Corbyn. We have had Sajid

:54:11. > :54:13.Javid and David Cameron. The don't normally see this in an election

:54:14. > :54:18.campaign for the Welsh Assembly. 4000 jobs are at risk in Port Talbot

:54:19. > :54:22.if a buyer can't be found for the steelworks. Not just the 4000

:54:23. > :54:26.workers but the 4000 families who depend on them. Everything a job in

:54:27. > :54:32.Port Talbot supports for others in the area, so the future as in really

:54:33. > :54:35.keen and difficult to avoid in this election campaign, will that have

:54:36. > :54:39.had an effect on the votes? We will find out. We expect they consider it

:54:40. > :54:44.see results sometime after two o'clock this way. They'll also

:54:45. > :54:47.announced the regional vote for South Wales West much later. But due

:54:48. > :54:51.to around 6am. Whatever happens we will be here. We'll be still going.

:54:52. > :54:58.We will be on air to about 915 tomorrow morning. We can't quite

:54:59. > :55:06.believe that it will be. Let's go to Rachel in Swansea. Lots of counting

:55:07. > :55:10.behind you. There is. Welcome to Swansea leisure centre. We have

:55:11. > :55:13.three counts going on here. Swansea West to my left. Swansea East to my

:55:14. > :55:17.right. You can't quite say the weather but we have got Gower. It

:55:18. > :55:22.has picked up a bit there. It was quiet earlier on but it is going

:55:23. > :55:26.strong now. Gower is the seat we are all really excited about. If you

:55:27. > :55:32.cast your mind back 12 months to the General Election it was Byron Davies

:55:33. > :55:37.the Tory candidate who'd turned over that seat by 27 votes. It was one of

:55:38. > :55:41.the big shocks of the General Election and that is what the Tories

:55:42. > :55:46.are hoping to do in the Gower again tonight. It is certainly got all the

:55:47. > :55:51.makings of a very juicy electoral drama. We have got the political big

:55:52. > :55:55.hitter Edwina Hart standing down. She has been in the Assembly since

:55:56. > :56:00.day one. Standing down from her ministerial seat for the economy.

:56:01. > :56:08.Then we have got the young and ambitious Labour candidate Rebecca

:56:09. > :56:10.Evans and the major challenger, the Conservative Lyndon Jones. Rebecca

:56:11. > :56:13.Evans has certainly got the pedigree. She knows what it is like

:56:14. > :56:18.to be an AM. She has held the seat in the last Assembly term and she

:56:19. > :56:22.was the last member of the worst government. She isn't going to want

:56:23. > :56:27.to be the person who loses Gower for Labour. Then we have got Lyndon

:56:28. > :56:34.Jones. He is putting some serious heat on Rebecca Evans. He and his --

:56:35. > :56:38.and Byron Davies have looked up. They are almost like a political

:56:39. > :56:42.band of brothers and they have been treading the pavements and hitting

:56:43. > :56:46.the doorsteps of the Gower. They are wanting to turn over that seat with

:56:47. > :56:51.the Conservatives and they feel that this seat is ripe for the taking. I

:56:52. > :56:56.did touch base with the Tory camp earlier today. The word that they

:56:57. > :57:00.used was serious potential for this seat to be turned over. On the other

:57:01. > :57:03.hand the Labour side, they are saying they don't see the same

:57:04. > :57:07.momentum for the Conservatives in the Gower that they did in the

:57:08. > :57:11.Westminster election, but they acknowledge it could well be close.

:57:12. > :57:16.In contrast we have the seeds of Swansea East and Swansea West. Both

:57:17. > :57:21.Labour seats since the start of this family. Mike Hedges in the east and

:57:22. > :57:26.Julie James in the West. Both going again to keep their seats. If you

:57:27. > :57:31.scoured the country defines the voters who are least interested in

:57:32. > :57:34.politics and most apathetic, it was in Swansea West and Swansea East

:57:35. > :57:38.that you would find yourself. They had the lowest turnout in the

:57:39. > :57:43.Assembly elections last time round is. Swansea East was the lowest.

:57:44. > :57:46.Swansea West the second lowest. It is a really tough draw to be a

:57:47. > :57:50.candidate in these constituencies. You're going to find it very

:57:51. > :57:53.difficult when you're out hitting those doorsteps and you are not

:57:54. > :57:59.likely to get an offer of coffee and biscuits. It is going to kick a very

:58:00. > :58:07.brave political analyst to predict anything other than a Labour double

:58:08. > :58:14.here. But who knows? There we go. We are hearing that potentially an

:58:15. > :58:19.8-10% swing for the Tories in Gower. David is waiting for us in

:58:20. > :58:25.Westminster. Keeping an eye on 2500 seats and councils were Ross

:58:26. > :58:29.England. And a London mayor. There is all sorts of voting going on in

:58:30. > :58:33.England. Yes. It is quite complicated. You have got the Police

:58:34. > :58:37.and Crime Commissioner is in the rest of England outside London and

:58:38. > :58:42.Greater Manchester. In London you have got it big contest to succeed

:58:43. > :58:46.Boris Johnson as mayor. It has been a bruising campaign there. Then you

:58:47. > :58:54.have got more than 120 councils across England electing something

:58:55. > :58:59.like 2700 councillors, seats that were last fought four years ago in

:59:00. > :59:04.what was quite a good year for Labour. Quite a challenge for Jeremy

:59:05. > :59:11.Corbyn. Eight months into his leadership. To see if he can make

:59:12. > :59:14.games tonight or at least make what you might call respectable losses.

:59:15. > :59:20.He said two days ago that he didn't expect to lose seats, but the

:59:21. > :59:26.analysis of some of the by-elections in councils that have been done this

:59:27. > :59:30.year suggested Labour could lose 150 seats. Any more and it would be a

:59:31. > :59:38.very bad night with them. There will be some anxious faces I suspect in

:59:39. > :59:44.Labour HQ as the results come in. What are you hearing about the

:59:45. > :59:49.performance of UKIP? It is early days but in places like Sunderland

:59:50. > :59:55.and the north-east of England they have been polling quite well.

:59:56. > :00:00.Certainly I don't think Nigel Farage expects to take control of many

:00:01. > :00:06.councils tonight, but for him this is all about a springboard ahead of

:00:07. > :00:14.the vote in six weeks' time, that referendum. If he can establish such

:00:15. > :00:19.bridgehead in Wales and also poll reasonably respectably even in some

:00:20. > :00:22.parts of Scotland, some of the early word suggestions are of that UKIP

:00:23. > :00:28.are doing rather better than you might think. He will see that is

:00:29. > :00:36.quite a solid base to build the wider Brexit case for the referendum

:00:37. > :00:41.on June 23. Thank you very much. I think we can speak to Mark Reckless,

:00:42. > :00:49.candidate for UKIP. You're very hopeful tonight that you will be in

:00:50. > :00:53.Cardiff Bay? Good evening. I have only seen a little bit of the camp

:00:54. > :00:57.so far but I have been looking at boxes coming in from Newport East

:00:58. > :01:01.and what I have seen so far is it looks like it might be a little bit

:01:02. > :01:06.better than the General Election. Very encouraging so far. But I have

:01:07. > :01:11.only seen two or three boxes being counted today. There is a poll

:01:12. > :01:16.predicting, for what it is worth, usual caveats, putting you at eight

:01:17. > :01:20.seats. Your leader put it that five earlier in the campaign. It would be

:01:21. > :01:28.an extremely good night for you, wouldn't it?

:01:29. > :01:37.Target was five, trying to get one person elected in each region, if we

:01:38. > :01:42.go up to... Let alone had... I think that sounds optimistic and would be

:01:43. > :01:45.spectacular, but if we get above five, we would be absolutely

:01:46. > :01:51.delighted, it would be quite some breakthrough. The Newport East,

:01:52. > :01:57.maybe it's our policy on scrapping the seven tolls... But it's

:01:58. > :02:06.encouraging. I believe that Ukip may make that breakthrough. If you do

:02:07. > :02:10.and you are in the assembly, will you focus on bread and butter

:02:11. > :02:17.issues, the economy or is it the big gamble and the big game to talk

:02:18. > :02:22.about Europe? -- Severn. I think it's the first 6-7 weeks after the

:02:23. > :02:28.assembly election, we have referendum on EU membership pending

:02:29. > :02:33.and that was the initial raison d'etre of Ukip and we will be

:02:34. > :02:38.fighting very hard. Getting a breakthrough into the assembly with

:02:39. > :02:46.numbers of assembly members has to help us on that side of the campaign

:02:47. > :02:51.but the focus will be long-term on public services, health,

:02:52. > :02:56.education... Scrapping the Severn tools, and we will be constructive

:02:57. > :03:00.and engaged trying to improve public services. You make a habit of this

:03:01. > :03:04.is a party, getting elected to things you want to scrap, like the

:03:05. > :03:08.EU, the Welsh Assembly which you seem to want to keep at the moment,

:03:09. > :03:16.but forever? Do you want to have more powers? We want to scrap the

:03:17. > :03:22.European Parliament, or at least get the British MEPs out of that. But we

:03:23. > :03:25.will have a constructive approach... Like many people in Wales, almost

:03:26. > :03:31.half the population who voted back in 97, we didn't initially supported

:03:32. > :03:35.the assembly but in 2011 there was another boat, a larger margin for

:03:36. > :03:39.more powers and we accept that result and we will work with

:03:40. > :03:44.devolution as people have voted for constructively. What we oppose

:03:45. > :03:48.tax-raising powers being devolved, not least because the Cardiff Bay

:03:49. > :03:52.established in party said in 2011 that a yes vote would not mean

:03:53. > :03:56.tax-raising powers but now they are going back their word, planning to

:03:57. > :04:00.take tax-raising powers without asking the people's permission and

:04:01. > :04:12.Ukip think that is wrong. We July to lead the in Wales? No. -- we July to

:04:13. > :04:17.lead? That is a clear answer, not the politician's answer. Let's go to

:04:18. > :04:21.another candidate, Elin Jones, former assembly member, she is an

:04:22. > :04:30.account in Llanelli, how is it looking? -- she is in the count.

:04:31. > :04:34.It's been quite a fight, very positive campaign, both of the major

:04:35. > :04:40.parties working really hard. We are very happy, with the response we

:04:41. > :04:43.have had on the doorsteps and the numbers of supporters who then be

:04:44. > :04:48.contacted them today, confirmed they went out to vote. Turnout is always

:04:49. > :04:55.an issue in assembly elections but I think tonight, we are optimistic

:04:56. > :05:01.that nothing is in the bag. Is it that tight? That is what your

:05:02. > :05:04.intelligence is telling you? It's very difficult to say, we know the

:05:05. > :05:08.response we are getting from our supporters but we can't be clear

:05:09. > :05:12.what our opponents are getting from there is, my feeling is that there

:05:13. > :05:15.will be if you hundreds votes in it either way, because of the sheer

:05:16. > :05:20.strength of the campaign and the hard work going in on both sides but

:05:21. > :05:27.we will see. And you should take Llanelli, it is your top target, you

:05:28. > :05:35.need a tiny swing of 0.15%? It would be a disappointment if you did not

:05:36. > :05:37.take it. Obviously, it would be a disappointment, I wouldn't be

:05:38. > :05:41.pitting myself forward to fight the seat again if I didn't think we

:05:42. > :05:45.could win. We have certainly put in all the work that we possibly can

:05:46. > :05:50.locally, we are benefiting from the positive momentum from the national

:05:51. > :05:55.campaign of polite company, growing in the last two weeks of this

:05:56. > :05:59.campaign, if we are not successful, I think for we are at the moment,

:06:00. > :06:06.it's optimistic but not feeling that anything is in the bag. -- Plaid

:06:07. > :06:13.Cymru. Thank you, we will stick to later, no doubt. Let's cross to Paul

:06:14. > :06:20.Heaney and we are hearing it is close in Blaenau Gwent... So far,

:06:21. > :06:25.difficult to say but the talk thus far, not many of the ballots counted

:06:26. > :06:31.is of a straight fight between Labour and Plaid Cymru. Alan Davies,

:06:32. > :06:34.the sitting assembly member and a prospective candidate used to be

:06:35. > :06:39.part of the Welsh government, very well-known in Welsh Labour, has a

:06:40. > :06:42.huge majority here, Labour would have to lose a huge number of votes

:06:43. > :06:48.for them to lose the seat, but the talks so far is Labour against Plaid

:06:49. > :06:53.Cymru, Plaid Cymru saying they are getting support on the doorstep but

:06:54. > :06:56.they are cautious, not predicting any kind of major upset. The votes

:06:57. > :07:00.being counted in the historic building that used to be the general

:07:01. > :07:06.offices of the Birkdale steelwork, talk not of steel but of local

:07:07. > :07:18.issues, jobs and health. Paul, thank you. Let's cross to Carl Sargeant,

:07:19. > :07:28.who awaits us, former big figure in the Labour Government... Good

:07:29. > :07:32.evening. What you hearing? Good evening. It's looking OK here in

:07:33. > :07:37.North Wales, the team working incredibly hard ride across North

:07:38. > :07:41.Wales. And across Wales. Under the leadership of Carwyn Jones I think

:07:42. > :07:45.we will be able to deliver and I'm confident looking for the next

:07:46. > :07:54.government for Welsh Labour. The poll suggesting 27 seat, it's only a

:07:55. > :07:57.poll, would you be happy? The poll as a poll, ask me the question at

:07:58. > :08:01.the end of the night when we have all the results. We should be

:08:02. > :08:04.optimistic, it's been a tough election but we have fought very

:08:05. > :08:07.hard, the troops on the streets knocking door by daughter and we are

:08:08. > :08:12.getting good results, but let's wait until the end of the night. We are

:08:13. > :08:16.hearing the Conservatives are pretty confident in places like Wrexham,

:08:17. > :08:22.Vale of Clwyd... Is that what you are hearing? Not at all. I have

:08:23. > :08:26.heard lots of things about the Conservatives, that they've said to

:08:27. > :08:30.me in the past but I don't believe a word of it. I think Kevin and Leslie

:08:31. > :08:34.have done a great job in those areas, I am optimistic we will hold

:08:35. > :08:39.those seats across North Wales. Thank you very much. Richard... What

:08:40. > :08:47.do you make of what we have heard so far and the little tips you are

:08:48. > :08:53.getting? This is the point in the evening that we talked to sources

:08:54. > :08:57.most involved in politics... Spotters football teams... They

:08:58. > :09:01.divide into two categories, the natural pessimists who start from...

:09:02. > :09:05.I am not sure they are pleasantly surprised, and people who think they

:09:06. > :09:11.will win 5-0 and at the moment I'm talking to people in all parties,

:09:12. > :09:15.some of whom... You play fantasy but all is well? I will not talk about

:09:16. > :09:19.football... But I am talking about people in the Labour Party, we heard

:09:20. > :09:25.from Carl Sargeant being very buoyant about the north-east, other

:09:26. > :09:28.people in the Labour Party far less sure and people in the Conservative

:09:29. > :09:34.Party incredibly buoyant and others around the country who are less

:09:35. > :09:39.cautious. It is the brand, they are probably still tallying the votes.

:09:40. > :09:43.We have to have something to talk about. Some of the boxes will not

:09:44. > :09:48.have arrived at some of the counting stations, these are very early

:09:49. > :09:55.indicators. Make... You are getting lots of texts and tweets? It is that

:09:56. > :09:59.danger territory. Some observations in terms of the interviews that

:10:00. > :10:04.we've done, I thought Helen Mary Jones wasn't necessarily downbeat

:10:05. > :10:12.that didn't appear overly confident. I think that was very obvious. A

:10:13. > :10:16.typical, sort of... Sword of bruising performance from Carl

:10:17. > :10:25.Sargeant... But Meijers is the word you're looking for Xtra-vision Mark

:10:26. > :10:30.pugnacious... I have had a number of talks with him. And he has kept with

:10:31. > :10:36.a bad line all the way through. Clearly... The Conservatives are

:10:37. > :10:42.talking about Wrexham in particular, I've had so many conversations with

:10:43. > :10:45.him, Andrew Atkinson, the candidate who whittled down the majority, the

:10:46. > :10:50.Labour majority in Wrexham in the general election, he is up against

:10:51. > :10:55.Lesley Griffiths, they are talking that up. Final observation, I

:10:56. > :11:01.thought very interesting interview with Andrew RT Davies, when Richard

:11:02. > :11:04.fitted to him about the vagaries of the list system, if they do very

:11:05. > :11:12.well and pick-up Arsenal seats, he could be out of a job, that is the

:11:13. > :11:18.answer, back to the farm. He seemed relaxed. We are only guessing, but

:11:19. > :11:22.the support for the Conservatives, moving on to the constituencies and

:11:23. > :11:29.therefore they drop off the list, they might have no more games, they

:11:30. > :11:32.might have made losses. Used to be talking about the electoral system

:11:33. > :11:37.earlier but these are the vagaries of the systems. We could see these

:11:38. > :11:43.very interesting developments in the constituencies, the interest negated

:11:44. > :11:48.by what happens... The Conservatives in particular, in a position where

:11:49. > :11:56.all of the prospective gains would lead to them losing a list seat on

:11:57. > :12:02.the current bold predictions. -- the current poll projections. It could

:12:03. > :12:05.go backwards in assembly group, it could be possibly smaller. I promise

:12:06. > :12:11.we will come back to that, I know you love the various systems, we

:12:12. > :12:15.will get onto that. I do not love them, that is the issue.

:12:16. > :12:22.Let's go to Felicity. Thank you, last time you left us, we spoke to

:12:23. > :12:25.David Bevan about what it was like for a small party trying to fight

:12:26. > :12:28.this campaign and David, you explained it was difficult to get

:12:29. > :12:31.attention and get the message out there but in terms of the meat of

:12:32. > :12:36.your argument, this is a very old for you are fighting, that has gone

:12:37. > :12:41.now, hasn't it? The talk of abolition of the Welsh Assembly. I

:12:42. > :12:46.don't think it has. The general public have been told that it was

:12:47. > :12:51.gone, all four and over again and if you are measuring the slippage down

:12:52. > :12:58.from 49 points 7% of the vote down to whatever it might be now,

:12:59. > :13:04.people... A lot of people have given up and there wasn't a party in place

:13:05. > :13:10.that those who opposed the assembly could fix their allegiance to. They

:13:11. > :13:17.lost hope. Now... There has been a second referendum, on further

:13:18. > :13:24.powers, which was one, to be. There was still 30% against more powers.

:13:25. > :13:27.33%, whatever you like... I can tell you this, David would be better off

:13:28. > :13:33.running a campaign, abolish Westminster... Jonathan, from Plaid

:13:34. > :13:38.Cymru, thank you, we will get your comments in a moment. You had a

:13:39. > :13:41.referendum, second referendum, that had a convincing majority for

:13:42. > :13:44.further powers for the Assembly, in successive balls on the subject

:13:45. > :13:49.support for the Assembly has built and built, the last poll for BBC

:13:50. > :13:56.Wales showed 13% of those questioned were interested in talking about

:13:57. > :14:01.abolishing it. 6% in favour of an independent Wales and we are worried

:14:02. > :14:06.and I think a lot of people who would be natural supporters, we are

:14:07. > :14:11.worried that this is a salami slice process, we are even told that

:14:12. > :14:21.devolution was not an event, it was a process, and it will go on. It is

:14:22. > :14:31.causing trouble now, and... In what way? I think... They have failed in

:14:32. > :14:34.their main areas of responsibility, health, education, jobs and part of

:14:35. > :14:42.the reason they have is because... The United Kingdom is quite an

:14:43. > :14:47.integrated system. And when you start slicing it up into little

:14:48. > :14:50.bits, it doesn't work so well. Aren't you confusing the government

:14:51. > :14:56.with the institution? It's a basic error, isn't it? I don't think it's

:14:57. > :15:01.an error, I do put the two together. OK, thank you. Jonathan Edwards from

:15:02. > :15:05.Plaid Cymru... I know you are keen to comment on that but the point

:15:06. > :15:09.that David makes about turnout, is a serious point. We have seen turnout

:15:10. > :15:14.dropping in successive assembly elections, does that suggest the

:15:15. > :15:18.institution does not cultivate the level of confidence and active

:15:19. > :15:25.support that it should? There's an argument we could do with more

:15:26. > :15:28.exciting politics. But no, successive opinion polls clearly

:15:29. > :15:35.indicate the people of Wales want more sovereignty over their daily

:15:36. > :15:42.lives, we have had many commissions, outlining detailed analysis that

:15:43. > :15:47.people want four more powers, control being decided Adam or level,

:15:48. > :15:55.faith in Westminster is falling. And you know, we have to realise, that

:15:56. > :15:59.the UK is a rapidly changing place, events in Scotland... Wales is not

:16:00. > :16:03.immune to that, the trajectory of travel is only one way and if I was

:16:04. > :16:06.a member of one of the unionist parties I would be arguing for a

:16:07. > :16:12.Federal or confederal settlement to deal with this issue once and for

:16:13. > :16:19.all. If we take that approach, I think the forces, as my party want

:16:20. > :16:22.independence, that will prevail. Carwyn Jones, Stephen, has called

:16:23. > :16:27.for a convention to discuss the constitution of the wider UK, thus

:16:28. > :16:30.far haven't seen it, what do you make of Jonathan Edwards point that

:16:31. > :16:36.perhaps without some cohesive attempt at a lasting settlement,

:16:37. > :16:49.those in favour of independence will gradually cease supporting?

:16:50. > :16:57.I think Carwyn Jones was right to call for a Constitutional

:16:58. > :16:59.Convention. I would like to see clear delineation of

:17:00. > :17:05.responsibilities between departments and Westminster 's and local

:17:06. > :17:08.government. Through Police and Crime Commissioner is into the mix. We

:17:09. > :17:11.have got a whole new set of responsibilities. The UK is

:17:12. > :17:16.changing. Someone has grown up with the Assembly and it is here to stay.

:17:17. > :17:23.It has done a great job. It is made our democracy and community here was

:17:24. > :17:29.stronger. They need to stop treating Wales as a second-class nation. Look

:17:30. > :17:34.at the powers from Northern Ireland and Scotland. We are a poor

:17:35. > :17:38.relation. In terms of that conversation, we have seen a lot of

:17:39. > :17:43.argy-bargy over the Wales Bill and the extent to which it does offer a

:17:44. > :17:47.respectful and lasting settlement for Wales. We have a relatively new

:17:48. > :17:51.Secretary of State for Wales who will be on the programme in the wee

:17:52. > :17:54.small hours of this morning who has responsibility for steering that

:17:55. > :18:00.through but we also have a pause in that Bill. What is your hope how the

:18:01. > :18:02.new Assembly government can work with the Conservative government in

:18:03. > :18:08.London to try to get a settlement on that front? It is a question of when

:18:09. > :18:12.and the detail has obviously been worked out with the new Secretary of

:18:13. > :18:17.State. It's think it should take time to make sure he gets it right.

:18:18. > :18:22.It is about respect on both sides of the M4. It is important they work

:18:23. > :18:25.together for the benefit of Wales and the Welsh people. It is

:18:26. > :18:31.important that on the doorstep I don't hear people arguing about how

:18:32. > :18:35.many powers the Assembly have got, they argue about health, education

:18:36. > :18:38.and elderly care. They don't argue about the constitutional settlement

:18:39. > :18:42.that Wales has and I think it is really important to remember that

:18:43. > :18:46.when in Cardiff Bay this might care about this but it is not the big

:18:47. > :18:51.thing that affects people's daily lives. If we don't talk about the

:18:52. > :18:56.big issues on the doorstep, health, we spend too much time talking about

:18:57. > :19:00.what the institution looks like, we lose the people. It is important we

:19:01. > :19:04.bring everybody along with us and everybody feels this is their

:19:05. > :19:07.representation, that they come to vote and if we have a low turnout

:19:08. > :19:13.today that will be a sad reflection upon that engagement. Cage talks

:19:14. > :19:17.about respect but don't forget, it was a line between life and death

:19:18. > :19:24.and the NHS and whatever debate there was about health... It doesn't

:19:25. > :19:28.reflect the sort of respect they should be between a UK and Welsh

:19:29. > :19:33.Government. We have to accept the Assembly is here to stay. The mighty

:19:34. > :19:40.disagreement about politics. I don't think the inflammatory language

:19:41. > :19:48.improves democracy. I would tend to respectively disagree. Let's bring

:19:49. > :19:53.Alice Phillips in for UKIP. What brought UKIP around ultimately to

:19:54. > :19:57.accepting the Assembly and deciding, as Mark Reckless said to us just a

:19:58. > :20:01.few minutes ago, that the party will be a constructive force within the

:20:02. > :20:08.Assembly? I lived through this because I started my career at UKIP

:20:09. > :20:11.in Wales at the time this party was very split. It was recognised very

:20:12. > :20:15.quickly it wouldn't make any sense whatsoever to demand a referendum on

:20:16. > :20:18.membership of the EU and then suggest that the referendum that

:20:19. > :20:26.that happened for devolution in Wales will somehow invalid. I think

:20:27. > :20:29.there should be a Welsh Assembly. It has a critical role in delivering

:20:30. > :20:33.good governance to the people of Wales. I would say it is not doing

:20:34. > :20:38.that. Our big concern at the moment is the very nature of devolution

:20:39. > :20:42.itself. They have got an Assembly in Cardiff Bay which is wanting to

:20:43. > :20:44.increasingly centralised powers. It is looking to merge local

:20:45. > :20:49.authorities and split powers away from them and bring them back into

:20:50. > :20:51.the middle, replaced the work that councillors do by boosting the

:20:52. > :20:57.number of AMs and I don't think that is right. The desert -- not about

:20:58. > :21:00.adding another structure of government, it is about giving the

:21:01. > :21:04.power down the ladder to those people. That is our big concern. We

:21:05. > :21:09.don't think that the Assembly has done a good job since devolution.

:21:10. > :21:13.That needs to be looked at whether it is education, health, the economy

:21:14. > :21:19.and so forth before they start having an appetite to get more

:21:20. > :21:23.control. I will bring Jenny Willott in because she hasn't had a chance

:21:24. > :21:26.to say anything. The Liberal Democrats are always very

:21:27. > :21:30.pro-devolution, but you must have fears that your voice will be lost

:21:31. > :21:36.in the next Assembly, given what the polls are suggesting. How do the

:21:37. > :21:39.Liberal Democrats make themselves heard in this debate and indeed all

:21:40. > :21:46.the other debates? Do you worry about that? The Liberals and Liberal

:21:47. > :21:49.Democrats have been campaigning on devolution for many years. The

:21:50. > :22:02.discord of the DNA of the party. It is fundamental for everything. -- it

:22:03. > :22:05.is the core. It is a really important way as how we see the

:22:06. > :22:10.world as a party and see how decisions should be made. I think

:22:11. > :22:15.Alexandra made an important point. The Welsh Assembly the way the

:22:16. > :22:18.Labour runs it is very centralising. One area the Lib Dems have been

:22:19. > :22:23.pressing on for quite a number of years is the fact that a number of

:22:24. > :22:27.issues and areas of responsibility that our default in local

:22:28. > :22:31.authorities to England are much closer to the people whose lives

:22:32. > :22:35.they are affecting in Wales, they go to the Assembly and Labour hold some

:22:36. > :22:41.right to the centre and they don't get devolved further to communities.

:22:42. > :22:45.I think that is an issue with Labour and the way that they run the

:22:46. > :22:49.Assembly, not an issue with whether or not the Assembly should exist in

:22:50. > :22:54.itself and what should be devolved to the Assembly. I think we need to

:22:55. > :22:57.start having more of a debate about how in Wales where decision should

:22:58. > :23:01.be made and not just assume that they should be made in Cardiff in

:23:02. > :23:07.the Assembly and that that is also the most appropriate place. The

:23:08. > :23:12.major systems it is not. Stephen Doughty, they are suggesting you're

:23:13. > :23:16.not enough pro-devolution. We are the party of devolution and we

:23:17. > :23:21.brought that about and we have ambitious plans. About UKIP, there

:23:22. > :23:24.is a slight disingenuity about the UKIP agenda. The reality is Mark

:23:25. > :23:28.Reckless admitted at himself, he said he wanted to get a bridgehead

:23:29. > :23:32.in Wales that they can use to pursue their agenda. Why else would MPs

:23:33. > :23:38.stand if you want to go in Rochester and Strood, a former Tory stood in

:23:39. > :23:42.Kent suddenly standing with people like Neil Hamilton. They're not

:23:43. > :23:51.interested in Wales. They are not interested in the Assembly. That is

:23:52. > :23:54.entirely false. We have got comprehends of manifesto that looks

:23:55. > :24:00.at all aspects of governance. We will talk about this in due course,

:24:01. > :24:05.I promise. Now, time to go back to Bethan. Thank you. We will be back

:24:06. > :24:10.on the silver very shortly. Results are coming in and not from Wales but

:24:11. > :24:17.the English councils. We have got the bug four results in. Labour

:24:18. > :24:20.holding Newcastle no surprise there. On BBC Radio Wales we are seeing

:24:21. > :24:26.some pictures of the counting going on there. It is very busy over the

:24:27. > :24:29.teams that Labour have held Newcastle upon Tyne and that the

:24:30. > :24:39.Conservatives have held Tunbridge Wells. Those results coming in. It's

:24:40. > :24:42.something to talk about. What is interesting about those results is

:24:43. > :24:51.what is going on under the surface. Most of these councils defer,

:24:52. > :24:54.deferred, deferred. Dramatic change is unlikely. What I am looking for

:24:55. > :24:58.in particular in areas like the north-east is how well UKIP is

:24:59. > :25:02.doing, for example. From what I can see from the little we have seen so

:25:03. > :25:09.far, UKIP are doing respectively but not spectacularly. Labour are still

:25:10. > :25:14.picking of Lib Dem seats. The Lib Dem decline in local government does

:25:15. > :25:21.appear to be continuing. But it is really early days. It is very early

:25:22. > :25:25.days. We will be heading back to see how Jason's fantasy football team is

:25:26. > :25:30.coming on. We have got a goalkeeper. Who is next? A seed Leighton Andrews

:25:31. > :25:33.on the table there. Wait till we see would you have got to you. Some

:25:34. > :25:47.central defenders to shorter. Let's have a chat about education. You

:25:48. > :25:52.might but this Paul Hennessy. From educating Cardiff. Good evening to

:25:53. > :25:55.you all. A win, we will come onto the fantasy team very shortly. As

:25:56. > :26:00.somebody who has been heavily involved in education in Wales by

:26:01. > :26:02.many years, which political party in this election campaign has spoken to

:26:03. > :26:09.you most passionately about education? I think everyone of them

:26:10. > :26:14.some interesting ideas in the match there still. We didn't discuss that

:26:15. > :26:18.much for various reasons. Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats but

:26:19. > :26:29.the trouble and centre in terms of the key policies. Had forces. I

:26:30. > :26:32.think probably those two, everyone had something. We didn't have the

:26:33. > :26:37.debate we would've liked to have seen. I remember talking to Kirsty

:26:38. > :26:40.Williams on the radio and when she was taking calls from listeners,

:26:41. > :26:45.everything is about education for her. It was a key pledge. It has

:26:46. > :26:51.always been a key pledge for the Lib Dems going into an election. Class

:26:52. > :26:55.sizes is a key one for parents and grandparents. And teachers. When we

:26:56. > :26:59.have meetings whenever I discussed the teachers, it always comes up. It

:27:00. > :27:03.has been of the political agenda for some time until the Lib Dems put it

:27:04. > :27:09.back. It caught the imagination more than we see others. Aimee, dubbed

:27:10. > :27:18.between under the table but why do you want me -- why'd you want to be

:27:19. > :27:21.a teacher? I want them to have the opportunity to make a change as a

:27:22. > :27:25.person in a career that I love. Do you feel you will have the backing

:27:26. > :27:29.from whichever government is formed in Cardiff Bay? And he heard enough

:27:30. > :27:34.from the future possible AMs of Wales to convince you it is the

:27:35. > :27:39.right career path? I think so. Labour policies were good. Putting

:27:40. > :27:45.more money into education is brilliant. And the Plaid stand is

:27:46. > :27:55.great in Wales. I don't think they get the appreciation they deserve.

:27:56. > :28:05.Paul, you became a big TV set. Where are you teaching now? I am now down

:28:06. > :28:09.in the limelight in Neath and Port Talbot. A small special needs

:28:10. > :28:13.school. Are they watching this evening? Possibly not. They will

:28:14. > :28:18.give me a right ribbing in the morning. In the staff room, what

:28:19. > :28:26.have people been saying about the election campaign? Personally, the

:28:27. > :28:32.manifesto itself, they have all been saying some other stuff, no clear

:28:33. > :28:37.definitive ideas. They all mentioned coding, changing of the curriculum.

:28:38. > :28:45.Emphasis on foreign languages. As we said earlier, Lib Dem bringing back

:28:46. > :28:50.pupil premiums. Class sizes. The coal face that is what matters. How

:28:51. > :28:54.will they fund the things? If you've got a class of 30 and you take it

:28:55. > :29:00.down to 25, where is the funding coming from and what will happen to

:29:01. > :29:03.the extra kids? It is all very nice in the policies and the manifestos

:29:04. > :29:15.but I would like to see how it happens.

:29:16. > :29:24.Other things, we have got kids coming in, up late at night, the

:29:25. > :29:30.Xbox culture. Obesity problems in primary schools. It is the whole

:29:31. > :29:36.picture that is counting towards secondary school and it is becoming

:29:37. > :29:40.harder. What about behaviour? It is different to when you and I may have

:29:41. > :29:44.been in school when the teacher might grab you by the year. That is

:29:45. > :29:48.long gone and you don't want to go back to those days. Low-level

:29:49. > :29:53.disruption is difficult because you're trying to get their point

:29:54. > :29:57.across and the constant disruption is niggling and it goes back to if

:29:58. > :30:01.you haven't had a good nights sleep and you go onto the radio this

:30:02. > :30:07.morning it affects concentration. You're an adult and you can adapt to

:30:08. > :30:13.that but it doesn't happen kids. A win, your experience at looking at

:30:14. > :30:19.the political landscape, are you convinced they are the right people,

:30:20. > :30:22.they are well educated enough in education to send a policy to a

:30:23. > :30:32.future teacher? What has been really good in the

:30:33. > :30:35.last Assembly term is that we now have Pioneer schools that we are

:30:36. > :30:39.looking at developing so hopefully we will see the big picture policies

:30:40. > :30:44.developed by the profession. That depends on what new government comes

:30:45. > :30:49.in and what changes happen but as the work is ongoing a lot of the

:30:50. > :30:53.manifestos showed continuity in that style of thinking. I like to believe

:30:54. > :31:02.that whoever comes in, the Assembly members we have, they will trust the

:31:03. > :31:05.people to impose these policies. Do you get tired of opposition

:31:06. > :31:10.politicians going into television and radio studios saying just look

:31:11. > :31:15.at our performance because when you look at it, come August when the

:31:16. > :31:20.A-level and GCSE results come out, Wales is performing pretty well.

:31:21. > :31:24.Exactly, it depends what measure and metrics you are looking at but I

:31:25. > :31:28.think the profession as a whole are tired of that kind of talk. Of

:31:29. > :31:31.course any opposition party rightfully and they should

:31:32. > :31:35.scrutinise the accountability of government and actually I think

:31:36. > :31:39.teachers accept that their profession is held accountable, it

:31:40. > :31:42.is a public service. Hand-in-hand with improving standards is working

:31:43. > :31:47.with the profession and showing respect for it. Maybe that is

:31:48. > :31:51.something that has changed in the last four years, we have instilled a

:31:52. > :31:53.bit more respect and how the politicians and the media are

:31:54. > :32:01.discussing teaching and long may that continue. One final question on

:32:02. > :32:04.education, looking forward, you are going to hopefully have a glittering

:32:05. > :32:11.career in front of a classroom and have a wonderful career in teaching,

:32:12. > :32:14.a bit like this man has had here, but if there are politicians

:32:15. > :32:18.watching tonight, where ever they may be, they may be in the studio

:32:19. > :32:22.next door, what would be your key message to them, given the fact that

:32:23. > :32:28.you are a young person, committed to the profession and you want to make

:32:29. > :32:32.a difference? I think just make education matter, make education a

:32:33. > :32:36.main priority for them, because it is a priority for everybody, it is a

:32:37. > :32:41.priority for children so make education matter. Good stuff. That

:32:42. > :32:47.is the business done so now we can have fun. We are looking at

:32:48. > :32:52.defenders, I know you are sporty, we have Leighton Andrews who is

:32:53. > :32:56.well-connected with education. Andrew RT Davies and Nathan Gill,

:32:57. > :33:00.the leader of Ukip in Wales. We are looking for commanding defenders. We

:33:01. > :33:04.are not sure whether Nathan Gill will play in Europe. Is Nathan

:33:05. > :33:08.Andrews a contender for a left back, right back or central defender. You

:33:09. > :33:12.could probably see him on the flanks, he is not backward in coming

:33:13. > :33:24.forwards. Particularly on the left-hand side. Ambitious, he would

:33:25. > :33:30.get into the box. He would lead from the front so he is more shouting

:33:31. > :33:36.orders. What do you think of Andrew RT Davies? I think he is a tough

:33:37. > :33:43.guy. He looks like he could head a ball. Judging by his cutout, I think

:33:44. > :33:50.that Nathan is quite tall so he could be a centre half. Politically

:33:51. > :33:54.I think it would be Ukip and the conservative that would work

:33:55. > :34:00.together. But he has to be on the team sheet! I am not selecting.

:34:01. > :34:06.Nathan is in as a central defender. I can't see Labour working with Ukip

:34:07. > :34:10.so I have two be the Tories. So we have gone for Andrew RT Davies and

:34:11. > :34:13.Nathan Gill as our two central defenders. If I was a striker for

:34:14. > :34:19.the other side, I wouldn't mess with those. Let us hope that Andrew RT

:34:20. > :34:26.Davies doesn't find us here! He will. We also have labour in gold

:34:27. > :34:34.so we are balanced. Let us go down to the bay and the Magic carpet. I

:34:35. > :34:37.have left the carpet for a moment and I want to talk to you about the

:34:38. > :34:43.opinion poll that came out this evening. We will get a health

:34:44. > :34:46.warning out of the way. Our colleagues at BBC Wales and Cardiff

:34:47. > :34:50.University asked many people online who had already voted so there is

:34:51. > :34:54.margin for error here and these things are experimental but having

:34:55. > :34:58.contained -- considered that it is still an opinion poll that is out on

:34:59. > :35:01.the day of the election which is exciting for you and me and our

:35:02. > :35:06.party leaders will also be excited. Here they are, the five main party

:35:07. > :35:11.leaders, unveiling our 30 foot high banners here. What kind of evening

:35:12. > :35:16.will it be for the party leaders? The share of the vote according to

:35:17. > :35:19.the opinion poll for each party, in terms of the constituencies, we're

:35:20. > :35:28.not looking at the regions right now, just the constituencies and

:35:29. > :35:31.that is important and I will explain why in a moment. Carwyn Jones for

:35:32. > :35:33.the Labour Party in Wales is on 33% of the vote according to this

:35:34. > :35:36.opinion poll. A disappointing night for them, but that is as low as they

:35:37. > :35:41.have gone in any other Assembly Election. Then we reach our --

:35:42. > :35:45.Andrew RT Davies for the Conservatives and they are in second

:35:46. > :35:49.place on the constituency share of the vote, a lot lower than they were

:35:50. > :35:53.in 2011. What will that mean in terms of the share of the vote and

:35:54. > :35:58.the number of seats that they get? They have pushed Plaid Cymru into

:35:59. > :36:01.third place in terms of the constituency seats. They are

:36:02. > :36:05.actually ahead of the Conservatives when it comes to the regional seats,

:36:06. > :36:10.according to this opinion poll, and that is important and I will tell

:36:11. > :36:14.you why in a moment. Then we come to Ukip, Nathan Gill's party. A good

:36:15. > :36:19.night for them according to the opinion poll. 16% is an increase

:36:20. > :36:23.from the 13% in the general election across Wales which would give them a

:36:24. > :36:32.few seats in the Assembly. I will show you more on that in a second.

:36:33. > :36:35.It is a disappointing evening for the Liberal Democrats who go down to

:36:36. > :36:37.8% of the constituencies according to this poll, worse than they have

:36:38. > :36:40.had in any of the other Assembly Election is so Kirsty Williams will

:36:41. > :36:44.have a difficult evening according to the opinion poll this evening.

:36:45. > :36:47.What does this translate into in seats? Once we have considered the

:36:48. > :36:52.regional seats and the constituency seats, this is how it looks in my

:36:53. > :36:55.birchwood chamber, let us open up the floor. It shows you

:36:56. > :37:01.unsurprisingly that Labour are the largest party on 27, three down on

:37:02. > :37:04.where they were in 2011. If you look at my winning line here, the white

:37:05. > :37:09.line, that is the winning line which crosses into a majority government,

:37:10. > :37:13.said they are still short of that one. Waste important that Plaid

:37:14. > :37:19.Cymru were ahead of the Conservatives on the regional vote?

:37:20. > :37:23.It means that they have 12am is in yellow, not green, bear that in

:37:24. > :37:30.mind, they are now ahead of the Conservatives because they are ahead

:37:31. > :37:39.of the Conservatives who have 11 according to the opinion poll. . We

:37:40. > :37:45.have a new block here, the purple block according to the opinion poll

:37:46. > :37:48.of eight Ukip members. It is the first time we would see Ukip members

:37:49. > :37:52.in the Assembly which would change the nature of the debate on how

:37:53. > :37:57.things would go there. Some people said they would not be there at all

:37:58. > :38:01.but the Lib Dems are holding on with two AMs. There would still be a

:38:02. > :38:04.number of people in the Assembly but if they go under three they would

:38:05. > :38:08.not actually be an official group according to the opinion poll. That

:38:09. > :38:13.is how it would look but let us get rid of that just for a moment and

:38:14. > :38:17.see how that would look according to how the next government would be

:38:18. > :38:21.made up. I have my new toy here, looking at how and where the

:38:22. > :38:26.government would come from. Labour with 27, could actually go it alone.

:38:27. > :38:30.Here is the threshold to gain an overall majority, you need 31 to get

:38:31. > :38:35.your votes through and your programme of government and your

:38:36. > :38:39.policies through. So, where are we? They are four short? Could they draw

:38:40. > :38:42.on the Liberal Democrats, as they have done in the early days of the

:38:43. > :38:48.Assembly? Not really, that would give them 29. They would still be

:38:49. > :38:53.too short of the overall majority, so we will get rid of them and they

:38:54. > :38:59.might have to turn to Plaid Cymru as they did in 2007. That would give

:39:00. > :39:04.them 39 which crosses the majority line, but how much appetite is there

:39:05. > :39:11.among those members to go into any sort of formal deal or coalition? I

:39:12. > :39:16.think time will tell. There was another option which is very

:39:17. > :39:19.unlikely which is maybe these parties could work together, but if

:39:20. > :39:23.you look at the political spectrum contained in this little space here

:39:24. > :39:27.in terms of difference of opinion and policy and personality and

:39:28. > :39:31.ideologies, that is probably a little bit of a long shot so it will

:39:32. > :39:34.probably be a combination there are now thereabouts at this opinion is

:39:35. > :39:39.true, but we haven't counted the votes and we don't how it will go

:39:40. > :39:48.but it is certainly food for thought. Thank you very much. We

:39:49. > :39:53.will be back with you shortly. Does your opinion reflect that poll?

:39:54. > :39:59.Fascinating figures there. The real significance in a way is that even

:40:00. > :40:02.with Liberal Democrat support, if Labour don't get an overall

:40:03. > :40:04.majority, they have been very successful in the last five years

:40:05. > :40:10.getting their budgets through without an overall majority and of

:40:11. > :40:14.Plaid Cymru or labour and using it as a negotiating tactic. If we get

:40:15. > :40:18.figures like this it puts Plaid Cymru in a very powerful position,

:40:19. > :40:22.they are the only realistic party that the Labour Party can go to for

:40:23. > :40:26.support. Very briefly a couple of sources I have spoken to say they

:40:27. > :40:31.don't necessarily relieve all the briefings they are getting from the

:40:32. > :40:33.Conservatives for the marginal seats in North Wales, but nevertheless

:40:34. > :40:38.Labour are bracing themselves for a tough night. We will go straight to

:40:39. > :40:42.one of those seats in North Wales that we were talking about. Andy

:40:43. > :40:46.Atkinson is the Conservative candidate for Wrexham. Thank you

:40:47. > :40:51.very much for joining us. What are you hearing? Is it looking hopeful

:40:52. > :40:55.for you? I hope so. I haven't had a chance to really see how the land

:40:56. > :40:58.lies down there but it looks OK, it looks good, it has been really

:40:59. > :41:02.promising on the doorstep all day today with our vote looking really

:41:03. > :41:07.solid so it is hoping that it translates into votes. That would be

:41:08. > :41:11.quite a coup in Wrexham. It would be a swing of 9% if you got in which

:41:12. > :41:15.would be a very good night for you. It would be a very good night,

:41:16. > :41:19.absolutely phenomenal. I hope that it can happen and it is a case of

:41:20. > :41:24.waiting and seeing so when I go down we will hope to get a clearer

:41:25. > :41:28.picture of what is happening. What is emerging in the speculation at

:41:29. > :41:31.least is that if you make the games on the constituency level, you will

:41:32. > :41:34.lose them all on the list so it is half a dozen of one and half a dozen

:41:35. > :41:39.of the other so you might not make much headway. Possibly, we may, we

:41:40. > :41:43.may not. It is an interesting system but I think we could make some

:41:44. > :41:47.really good gains across north-east Wales which means we have to wait

:41:48. > :41:50.and see as the votes stack up downstairs in the piles grow and we

:41:51. > :41:54.will get a real picture of who can actually do it but I think there has

:41:55. > :41:57.been a very strong feeling on the doorstep that people don't want

:41:58. > :42:05.Labour again, that they are ready for change. It has been 17 years too

:42:06. > :42:08.long and it is time for change so it is just a case whether that has come

:42:09. > :42:12.across to the ballot box. It is a low turnout election. What has been

:42:13. > :42:16.coming out on the doorstep? Is it a health and education and bread and

:42:17. > :42:21.butter stuff? Absolutely. Health was always the big one and there have

:42:22. > :42:26.been very key local issues that I have been involved with and my plans

:42:27. > :42:31.to regenerate the town centre and those bread-and-butter issues but it

:42:32. > :42:34.has always been health above everything else. People are ready

:42:35. > :42:40.for change and deserve better want better want somebody to deliver the

:42:41. > :42:44.health service and the health priority that they want and they

:42:45. > :42:47.deserve. One theory going around tonight is that you could make some

:42:48. > :42:54.gains on the constituency but luge will ease as you did in 2011 when

:42:55. > :42:59.you made gains but lost Nick Ward but it would be huge loss if you

:43:00. > :43:03.lost Andrew RT Davies, would it? I have a lot of faith in him and I

:43:04. > :43:07.think he is a fantastic leader and a lot of people in his know that. I

:43:08. > :43:12.think we will have him roaring away in the Senedd next week and bleeding

:43:13. > :43:20.from the front. Do you think you will be there to? I hope so, if I am

:43:21. > :43:25.I will get the copy them. Thank you very much. It is very early still,

:43:26. > :43:35.isn't it, but what picture is emerging so far? Nothing! Well,

:43:36. > :43:38.actually, yes, we need the results. There are very interesting results

:43:39. > :43:43.coming out of Scotland. We started the programme by mentioning that the

:43:44. > :43:47.battle for second place was a very live one and the battle for fourth

:43:48. > :43:51.one -- fourth-place was a very live one in Scotland. The battle for

:43:52. > :43:55.second place is between the Conservative Party and labour and it

:43:56. > :44:00.is still hard to imagine Labour battling with the Conservatives to

:44:01. > :44:04.be the second party behind the dominant SNP. This is an interesting

:44:05. > :44:08.battle because it is not about the Conservatives doing politically --

:44:09. > :44:12.particularly well. There has been a lot of hype around Ruth Davidson,

:44:13. > :44:16.the Conservative leader, but what is happening is their support is

:44:17. > :44:20.remaining pretty stagnant but Labour is plummeting down and there are now

:44:21. > :44:27.reports that Labour could be third in Glasgow. I am going to repeat

:44:28. > :44:31.that. That is phenomenal. It is possible that Labour could be third

:44:32. > :44:33.in Glasgow. It also appears that the Greens could eclipse the Scottish

:44:34. > :44:38.Liberal Democrats which would be really desperate for the Scottish

:44:39. > :44:43.Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Democrats as a party. You will

:44:44. > :44:45.recall during the Coalition Government that the phalanx of

:44:46. > :44:50.Scottish Liberal Democrats MPs was really important in terms of that

:44:51. > :44:53.Coalition Government and it was a sizeable chunk of the Liberal

:44:54. > :44:57.Democrat group in Westminster and if they are now falling behind the

:44:58. > :45:04.Greens in Scotland than it would be another humiliation for them and

:45:05. > :45:09.frankly your Greece are not good in Wales either. Also very quickly, in

:45:10. > :45:12.terms of London, I think we are all aware, even though we have been

:45:13. > :45:18.concentrating on Wales, that the battle in London has turned quite

:45:19. > :45:21.nasty and we are now seeing some recriminations from senior

:45:22. > :45:26.Conservatives, saying the attacks on Labour's candidate went too far so I

:45:27. > :45:38.think we will hear much more in terms of recriminations around the

:45:39. > :45:41.London mayoral contest. Sadiq Khan was connected to extreme Islamic

:45:42. > :45:48.sentiment and senior people said that went too far so we need to

:45:49. > :45:54.watch that space as well. Back to knit, in terms of turnout we have

:45:55. > :45:57.nothing yet, no guesses but predictions during the campaign and

:45:58. > :45:59.warnings from people like Andrew RT Davies that it could be the lowest

:46:00. > :46:05.ever for an Assembly Election, is that what we are looking at? At 42%

:46:06. > :46:12.five years ago and it was a feature of the campaign. It was not just

:46:13. > :46:19.people like me talking about it, you had the leader of the Welsh

:46:20. > :46:22.Conservatives pointing to the backdrop of the EU referendum and

:46:23. > :46:27.that casts such a long shadow and it was difficult for the parties to cut

:46:28. > :46:32.through. I have to have some sympathy on that front. I remember

:46:33. > :46:35.out on the campaign, this happened a number of times, I would ask people

:46:36. > :46:39.what they thought of the Assembly campaign and who they were going to

:46:40. > :46:44.support and I would get a response saying they were a Brexit man. They

:46:45. > :46:49.didn't hear the question, it was just that the EU campaign was

:46:50. > :46:50.dominating so much in terms of the pub compensations and, of course,

:46:51. > :46:59.the UK media out there. I don't think the political parties

:47:00. > :47:05.can escape for responsibility, it is up to them to create policies that

:47:06. > :47:09.can infuse and engage people, and the turnout will be a reflection of

:47:10. > :47:13.that. We are getting some indication of the turnout in Scotland? Again,

:47:14. > :47:18.these are very, very early indications and I am loathed to put

:47:19. > :47:23.too much weight onto them. But the indications are that the turnout is

:47:24. > :47:29.up in Scotland. That wouldn't be a surprise. We have seen remarkable

:47:30. > :47:34.process in Scotland since the spring of 2014, when the independence

:47:35. > :47:38.referendum arguments became a general societal conversation in

:47:39. > :47:43.Scotland. We have seen tens of thousands of people in Scotland join

:47:44. > :47:47.political parties, there has been a remarkable politicisation of

:47:48. > :47:52.Scottish society. I would be very surprised if the turnout isn't

:47:53. > :47:58.higher in Scotland. We have some pictures now of Neil Hamilton, one

:47:59. > :48:03.of the big names of Ukip. He is at the Llanelli count. He is the former

:48:04. > :48:09.MP for Ukip, and a former minister as well. He is hoping to get into

:48:10. > :48:12.the national Assembly. A very controversial choice as a candidate,

:48:13. > :48:17.he didn't go down well with everybody in the party. He was the

:48:18. > :48:20.joys that was made, and he admitted that perhaps he wouldn't have made

:48:21. > :48:24.it quite like that -- he said he was the choice that was made. Neil

:48:25. > :48:30.Hamilton returned likely if these polls are right. He will be an

:48:31. > :48:36.Assembly Member if the polls are right, but we do not know yet. Let's

:48:37. > :48:44.go to match riches in Llandudno. Lots of counts going on there, Matt.

:48:45. > :48:48.-- Matt Richards. I think Aberconwy seems to be the closest race we will

:48:49. > :48:53.have of the two counts going on here. It was recently held by Janet

:48:54. > :48:58.Finch-Saunders of the Conservative body. Aberconwy has changed hands

:48:59. > :49:02.every single election, it has been held previously by both Plaid and

:49:03. > :49:05.Labour, all of those parties in the running. Included West, we have

:49:06. > :49:11.Daniel Miller from the Conservatives. -- in Clwyd West. It

:49:12. > :49:15.is more of a fight for second place between Plaid the Labour Party. It

:49:16. > :49:21.is a family affair in Clwyd West. Daniel Miller for the Conservatives

:49:22. > :49:24.is competing against his brother-in-law, David Edwards, who

:49:25. > :49:28.is the Ukip candidate, he is married to Daniel Miller's youngest sister.

:49:29. > :49:34.They have occasionally bumped into each other out on the campaign

:49:35. > :49:46.trail. Add the Labour candidate is married to a former MP, a family

:49:47. > :49:53.affair! Let's go straight to Clwyd West and join Caroline Evans. It has

:49:54. > :49:57.been a lovely day here down in West Wales, let's hope it turns into a

:49:58. > :50:03.lovely night as well. The question is, how is all that sunshine has

:50:04. > :50:06.boosted turnout was like we will find out about 2am here. It is

:50:07. > :50:11.important, because we think it is going to be a tight race. Carmarthen

:50:12. > :50:17.West and South Pembrokeshire is the third most marginal seat in Wales of

:50:18. > :50:22.course. Held currently by the Conservatives, by Angela Burns, the

:50:23. > :50:26.sitting MP with the majority of 1500. The last time round, she was

:50:27. > :50:32.closely followed by the Labour Party, and third close behind again

:50:33. > :50:36.were Plaid Cymru. All three of those parties are eager to see if they can

:50:37. > :50:40.grab that seat. Then we have got some unknown is. We have got Ukip

:50:41. > :50:44.running, don't know what effect that is going to have on the vote. And

:50:45. > :50:48.here we have a particular constituency story, which is the

:50:49. > :50:57.Willie Bush story. We have Chris Overton running for save lives

:50:58. > :51:01.party, the campaign to save services there. That has been at the top of

:51:02. > :51:04.the agenda of people out there run the doorsteps. It will be

:51:05. > :51:11.interesting to see what effect that has on the boat. The other count

:51:12. > :51:16.happening here tonight is that Preseli Pembrokeshire count. That is

:51:17. > :51:20.being held by Paul Davies, the sitting AM. A slightly larger

:51:21. > :51:25.majority there, but it hasn't always been Conservative. The first two

:51:26. > :51:29.elections it was Labour. Again, both parties will be keenly watching the

:51:30. > :51:39.vote as they are counted. The results we are told possibly about

:51:40. > :51:42.6am. But the word of a recount has already been murmured. It could be a

:51:43. > :51:47.long night. Thank you, Caroline Evans. Let's go to the Vale of

:51:48. > :51:55.Glamorgan, where it is looking tight. Indeed it is looking tight

:51:56. > :52:00.here. This is a Labour seat and has been since 1989. Jane Hutt, Minister

:52:01. > :52:06.in the Labour government. Although she has held it since 1999, it

:52:07. > :52:12.hasn't always been safe. In 2007 there were only 83 votes in it. The

:52:13. > :52:17.Labour Party will be looking very closely at last year's general

:52:18. > :52:20.election result, when the Conservative Alan Kearns, Secretary

:52:21. > :52:25.of State for Wales, he increased his majority to nearly 7000. I was

:52:26. > :52:28.speaking to Alan Kearns earlier, and he was telling me that they are not

:52:29. > :52:33.100% confident that they are watching that turnout very closely,

:52:34. > :52:38.which we are expecting at around 1:30am, in about an hour. Labour

:52:39. > :52:42.Party sources on the ground are telling us that they are not

:52:43. > :52:46.confident, but, you know, they are confident in it Jane Hutt's personal

:52:47. > :52:50.appeal. They are hoping has a Borders will have turned out. It is

:52:51. > :52:54.the EU that has really been the hot topic on the doorstep for them --

:52:55. > :52:59.hurt supporters will have turned out. Ukip are the real unknown in

:53:00. > :53:04.this seat. They were not here last year. But in last year's general

:53:05. > :53:07.election, they were not here in the Assembly election, but in 2015 for

:53:08. > :53:12.the general election they came third. Well of the two frontrunners,

:53:13. > :53:17.the Tories and Labour, but still that could have a bit of an effect

:53:18. > :53:25.or eat in the Labour's majority. It could be close here, which means it

:53:26. > :53:28.could be late. Thank you. Saying goodbye to Prof Richard Wyn Jones,

:53:29. > :53:36.he is leaving us for a short time. We will wheel in another professor,

:53:37. > :53:43.why not! Why not?! You did eat too much chocolate bars while you were

:53:44. > :53:48.here, I was very impressed! There is going to be a rotating panel all

:53:49. > :53:52.night as well. I think Fliss, you are about to lose your guests and

:53:53. > :53:58.gain some. Nobody has offered us any chocolate! Anyway, hopefully a

:53:59. > :54:02.little later in the night that will come. I apologise to our guests for

:54:03. > :54:06.not being offered any chocolate! Let's talk about the intelligence

:54:07. > :54:10.you are getting that you have had an final campaigning today. Stephen, we

:54:11. > :54:14.heard from the Vale of Glamorgan, you were doorknocking that today,

:54:15. > :54:19.what sense did you get? It has always been an incredibly tight

:54:20. > :54:22.race, I was there for a number of recounts in 2007, Jane Hutt's

:54:23. > :54:27.popularity on the doorstep is three clear, very strong support for the

:54:28. > :54:30.local work she has done. But there were other issues on the doorstep is

:54:31. > :54:33.welcome concerns about what is happening in Westminster and the

:54:34. > :54:36.European referendum, those issues were there. It is going to be close,

:54:37. > :54:43.I am sure of that. Some good news, we are hearing the Conservatives has

:54:44. > :54:52.lost one of the counts they thought they were going to win. It seems to

:54:53. > :54:59.be a bit of overconfidence there. Interesting. Alex, what about Ukip?

:55:00. > :55:04.We are looking at regional seats, it is too early to tell, a lot depends

:55:05. > :55:08.on the constituency votes. In terms of constituency votes, it is

:55:09. > :55:16.worthwhile looking at Caerphilly and Ukip, fingers crossed there could be

:55:17. > :55:24.a second place. I think Dafydd is deliberately keeping me in the dark!

:55:25. > :55:30.All I can tell you, Carmarthen is quite comfortable. I'd like to thank

:55:31. > :55:33.the BBC for all the coverage they have given of my colleague during

:55:34. > :55:39.the campaign! In terms of the poll, we are looking at the first results.

:55:40. > :55:45.It is not an exit poll, it is a repeat poll. There are no set races

:55:46. > :55:51.here. Also it is an internet poll. And they West backpack killer wrong

:55:52. > :55:55.in the last Assembly election, overestimate your -- they were

:55:56. > :55:59.spectacularly wrong. It could be an interesting night. We are all very

:56:00. > :56:04.careful with polls after last year's experience. What do you know about

:56:05. > :56:10.the Conservatives? Picking up on what Jonathan was saying, we had

:56:11. > :56:14.-6%, they got it wrong by a very big margin last month. We have run

:56:15. > :56:19.assembler campaign, targeting resources on campaign. We are seeing

:56:20. > :56:27.some strength. -- a similar campaign. We are seeing this paid

:56:28. > :56:32.off. Interesting you mentioned Delyn, our target was there. We have

:56:33. > :56:37.had a positive day on the doorstep. Cardiff North, as I've been hearing,

:56:38. > :56:40.some people were saying that the polling stations were quiet. By the

:56:41. > :56:44.morning and early afternoon, apparently there were queues to get

:56:45. > :56:49.in. We are hoping their certain areas with strong turnout, and

:56:50. > :56:53.obviously certain turnout issues do in fact favour us in certain

:56:54. > :56:58.constituencies. I think there may be a few surprises there. I'm certainly

:56:59. > :57:03.not writing off places like Newport West. We will see how well they do.

:57:04. > :57:10.The form Armand leader of the council is very well-known, he has

:57:11. > :57:15.been working hard. Jenny Willott is for the Liberal Democrats, a very

:57:16. > :57:19.difficult election for you. Are you hearing anything from Brecon and

:57:20. > :57:22.Radnorshire? I have been following Twitter and bar isn't a lot on

:57:23. > :57:26.there. A lot of people are saying they are getting bored and they

:57:27. > :57:31.might go to sleep -- there isn't a lot on there. There doesn't seem to

:57:32. > :57:36.be very much happening. How can they be bored when they could be watching

:57:37. > :57:40.and listening to us?! Of course! What I would take from my experience

:57:41. > :57:43.is going into today and knocking on doors and so on, I think it is going

:57:44. > :57:50.to be extremely tight for us. Given that I spent the day Cardiff

:57:51. > :57:54.Central, which I lost by 5000 votes last year, I think it is probably

:57:55. > :57:58.too close to call this time. Regardless of what the result is,

:57:59. > :58:04.that is a dramatic turnaround in 12 months. I think there is definite

:58:05. > :58:07.movement towards the Liberal Democrats in the areas where we were

:58:08. > :58:11.really hammered last year. I think it's too early in the evening, and I

:58:12. > :58:14.think a lot of the results are going to be so tight, I think it is go to

:58:15. > :58:18.be ready difficult to predict that this point what the results are

:58:19. > :58:22.going to be. Yes, indeed. There is broad agreement on that, if we are

:58:23. > :58:26.being cautious on the polls we are certainly agreeing on the tightness

:58:27. > :58:31.of some of these seats. David Bevan, for you, is this an experience you

:58:32. > :58:34.would like to repeat? Will be abolish the Welsh Assembly party be

:58:35. > :58:38.standing in future? We will be keeping this going. The only reason

:58:39. > :58:42.we are possibly not going to be extremely successful the is that not

:58:43. > :58:47.enough people have heard our message. Which is that this thing,

:58:48. > :58:55.the Assembly, is enormously expensive. We think, it is ?500

:58:56. > :59:02.million per year, and it is going to get more expensive, because they

:59:03. > :59:05.want more AMs, a salary rise, and they want tax raising powers, and

:59:06. > :59:16.they even want a separate legal system. That might turn... They

:59:17. > :59:21.spend ?7 million on refurbishing Westminster, is that a good use of

:59:22. > :59:27.public money? Not my issue. It is for the whole of Britain. ?7

:59:28. > :59:30.billion... They started with Big Ben, and Big Ben is going to go

:59:31. > :59:34.quiet for a few months when all of that starts. But we certainly get

:59:35. > :59:38.the sense of your passion and commitment to this cause, David.

:59:39. > :59:43.Certainly not in doubt. Thank you very much to all of you for coming

:59:44. > :59:48.to join me. Next time you see me, Beth, I will have fresh faces on the

:59:49. > :59:52.sofa. And fresh views, too. But this lot have earned a break now.

:59:53. > :00:02.They've done their bit. Thank you, Fliss. Let's talk the way Ukip

:00:03. > :00:09.candidate, if familiar face, Neil Hamilton joining us from Llanelli.

:00:10. > :00:16.Can you hear me? Are you expecting to be in the Welsh Assembly next

:00:17. > :00:21.week? Well, I've only got the polls to go on, and if we believe them

:00:22. > :00:28.then yes,, I will be. How will that compared to Westminster to you? I

:00:29. > :00:37.think it is promotion, don't you? Is that how you see it? Can I ask you

:00:38. > :00:44.about your leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, how do you think he has done

:00:45. > :00:48.during the campaign? Well, we have each been fighting the campaign in

:00:49. > :00:53.our own regions. So I haven't actually come across Nathan during

:00:54. > :00:57.the course of the campaign. But, you know, we are all fighting on the

:00:58. > :01:02.same side for the same objectives. And I think the results tonight will

:01:03. > :01:05.confirm that we have been fighting pretty effectively as a team. And

:01:06. > :01:10.actually it is the result is that tell it all.

:01:11. > :01:21.So he is a good leader? Well, it is not for me to say whether he is a

:01:22. > :01:24.good or bad leader or if I am a good or bad candidate, the only people

:01:25. > :01:27.who will be the ultimate arbiters of these questions will be the

:01:28. > :01:32.electorate themselves and we will find out what they think of us in a

:01:33. > :01:43.very short time. It would be quite nice to endorse your leader on

:01:44. > :01:48.election night, wouldn't it? Sorry? Oh, I'm 100% in support of Nathan

:01:49. > :01:54.Gill, as a UK candidates in this election. We are having some sand

:01:55. > :02:01.delays speaking to you but I wonder what will be your priorities as a

:02:02. > :02:10.party if you get eight members into the national Assembly has some polls

:02:11. > :02:12.are suggesting? Our priorities, well, our priority is to be an

:02:13. > :02:17.independent voice for Wales in the Assembly for the first time. We

:02:18. > :02:23.fought this election upon a manifesto which covers all 20 areas

:02:24. > :02:27.of devolved powers and we will fight for the things that we believe him

:02:28. > :02:32.and this election will feed into the bigger question of the referendum,

:02:33. > :02:35.which is to come on the 23rd of June because ultimately the future of

:02:36. > :02:40.Britain, which includes the future of Wales, depends on the outcome of

:02:41. > :02:45.the result of the referendum campaign. We have a party in Wales

:02:46. > :02:48.called Plaid Cymru that claims to be the national party of Wales, yet

:02:49. > :02:53.they seem to be quite happy for more and more powers to be taken away

:02:54. > :02:58.from Wales and Britain to Brussels. It is not -- it is an odd kind of

:02:59. > :03:02.nationalism that things Wales is better governed from Brussels and

:03:03. > :03:07.Cardiff and Ukip is the only party that takes the opposite view. Isn't

:03:08. > :03:11.there a paradox in your position in that if Brexit were to happen in

:03:12. > :03:15.Britain leave the European Union then many predict that Scotland

:03:16. > :03:20.would go its own way and therefore you would get the break-up, as you

:03:21. > :03:25.would see it, of the UK, which is something that you really don't

:03:26. > :03:30.want. Well, I personally believe in the United Kingdom, but if Scotland

:03:31. > :03:34.votes to go in a different direction then obviously we would have

:03:35. > :03:38.accepted the result but I don't think that Scotland will vote for

:03:39. > :03:42.independence. The fact that the SNP got as many votes as it did last

:03:43. > :03:48.year doesn't indicate that the majority of people in Scotland want

:03:49. > :03:52.to be outside the United Kingdom. The SNP actually accepts that

:03:53. > :03:55.position because they have said there will not be another referendum

:03:56. > :04:09.on whether Scotland should leave the UK until something material changes.

:04:10. > :04:13.I personally do not think that the referendum on membership of the EU

:04:14. > :04:15.affects this one iota. It seems bizarre to me that the Scottish

:04:16. > :04:17.Nationalists think that one of the justifications for leaving the

:04:18. > :04:20.United Kingdom is that we bring back the powers to the United Kingdom

:04:21. > :04:22.that have already been taken away from our shores. Surely a

:04:23. > :04:24.Scottishness person would want those powers to be based in Edinburgh but

:04:25. > :04:26.they do not take that view because they are all part of the

:04:27. > :04:30.international political gravy train and they do not believe in national

:04:31. > :04:34.independence at all. Thank you very much. It is a debate that will

:04:35. > :04:39.continue, I am sure, especially if you get into the National Assembly.

:04:40. > :04:46.Thank you very much, Mr Hamilton, in Llanelli. Now we go to North Wales.

:04:47. > :04:52.Good evening Mr Williams, what how things looking for your party? We

:04:53. > :04:56.had a very bad night a year ago, both here in Brecon and Radnorshire

:04:57. > :05:00.and in Wales and right across the United Kingdom. We had to have a

:05:01. > :05:04.fightback and Liberal Democrats are fighters and we put a campaign

:05:05. > :05:12.together right the way across Wales and we feel very happy with the

:05:13. > :05:16.success of that campaign. Some of the polls are suggesting about two

:05:17. > :05:20.seats for you, that would be a good night for a year, would it? Two

:05:21. > :05:28.seats? Are you having trouble hearing the? Yes, better now. I was

:05:29. > :05:33.just wondering how many seats are predicting, or if you are making no

:05:34. > :05:36.predictions? We are making no predictions, the polls have

:05:37. > :05:41.indicated two but we are fighting very hard in our target seats and

:05:42. > :05:44.certainly out and about with Kirsty Williams in Brecon and Radnorshire

:05:45. > :05:47.has been very encouraging and of course she has recognition because

:05:48. > :05:52.she takes part in the leadership debates as well. Is it looking good

:05:53. > :05:57.for her in Brecon and Radnorshire that she will hold on? It is much

:05:58. > :06:02.too early to say about that and I think a lot of accounting clerks

:06:03. > :06:06.have gone to have a little bit of a break. They have been at it now for

:06:07. > :06:10.quite some time and it is quite warm here and I think they turned the

:06:11. > :06:13.heating up as well as having the start of summer at the same time so

:06:14. > :06:17.everyone needs a little bit of refreshment but there are lots of

:06:18. > :06:24.boxes to open and a long way to go in this count here. I will let you

:06:25. > :06:31.have a cup of tea or a long glass of water. Yes, thank you. Feeling the

:06:32. > :06:37.heat there in known Radnorshire. Let us go to Glasgow now. What are you

:06:38. > :06:40.hearing? I just wanted to update you really on a couple of conversations

:06:41. > :06:46.we have had in the last half an hour or so with some senior party members

:06:47. > :06:51.here, the first with a senior SNP member who told us that tonight is

:06:52. > :06:56.going to be a very good night for the SNP, as we expect. I asked him

:06:57. > :07:00.if there was any way that the party could actually reach the magic

:07:01. > :07:05.figure of 65 seats, that they need to secure a majority, simply by

:07:06. > :07:11.winning constituency seats, without needing the help of the regional

:07:12. > :07:15.top-up system. He said it would be difficult and tight but it is

:07:16. > :07:19.possible and that would be a remarkable achievement really, when

:07:20. > :07:23.you consider that when they won a majority back in 2011 they did that

:07:24. > :07:29.by winning 53 constituency seats and the rest coming from the list

:07:30. > :07:37.system. I've also spoken to a senior Labour figure here and he was very

:07:38. > :07:40.dejected in comparison. Of course, again, feeding into the narrative

:07:41. > :07:44.that we're hearing today that it is going to be a difficult night for

:07:45. > :07:48.Labour. He said that things are not looking good but we didn't expect

:07:49. > :07:53.anything else, to be frank. He said it is possible that Labour could

:07:54. > :07:57.lose the three Glasgow constituencies that it holds in

:07:58. > :08:02.Holyrood, three of the eight. Then they are hoping to make up for those

:08:03. > :08:07.losses and take some consolation in the fact that they could make up for

:08:08. > :08:10.those losses by picking up seats on the regional list. Here in Scotland

:08:11. > :08:15.there are seven seats to be one in each region. Labour are hoping that

:08:16. > :08:20.here in Glasgow they could win at least three of those additional

:08:21. > :08:24.seats and this Labour figure was saying that basically the party

:08:25. > :08:29.needs to do more to regain trust and quite simply this election has come

:08:30. > :08:33.a year too soon for them. I did ask if they were confident nationally

:08:34. > :08:38.still securing the runner-up spot, coming second to the SNP ahead of

:08:39. > :08:43.the Conservatives, and he said, we will be second. I have also spoken

:08:44. > :08:47.to a conservative who is confident they will get the runner-up spot so

:08:48. > :08:52.we remain to see what happens there but very finally, just to give you a

:08:53. > :08:55.further update, we are expecting the first result from Scotland in the

:08:56. > :08:58.constituency of Rutherglen imminently which will give us a

:08:59. > :09:01.further idea of how things are shaping up here in Scotland because

:09:02. > :09:08.at the moment that is a Labour seat but it is very much an SNP target

:09:09. > :09:11.seat and so if that goes to the SNP then clearly it feeds into this

:09:12. > :09:17.story that we expect to develop further throughout the night, of

:09:18. > :09:22.labour decline and the SNP going from strength to strength.

:09:23. > :09:25.Rutherglen is imminent in Scotland but nothing imminent, we have heard

:09:26. > :09:31.that Cardiff Central is a slow count and it is extremely tight. We will

:09:32. > :09:35.go to Cardiff. Thank you for waiting. What have you heard about

:09:36. > :09:39.your patch, Vale of Glamorgan? We have heard tips that it might be

:09:40. > :09:43.looking good for your party. It is difficult to say, when I left Barry

:09:44. > :09:47.a short time ago they hadn't opened all the boxes, they were still

:09:48. > :09:51.validating some of the boxes. We have had a good campaign on the

:09:52. > :09:56.ground and we have an excellent candidate in Ross England but this

:09:57. > :10:00.is a turnout election, if there is a 50% turnout, for example, we get

:10:01. > :10:04.more of our voters out than the opposition parties then we will do

:10:05. > :10:08.well and if it is vice versa then we will not do so well. What was

:10:09. > :10:12.obvious on the ground is that there was not much leakage from our boat

:10:13. > :10:17.from the general election, but the big question is whether those people

:10:18. > :10:20.turned out. Did it help that perhaps there were, some would argue, some

:10:21. > :10:25.tensions between the leaders in Westminster and the leaders in

:10:26. > :10:30.Wales? Well, I don't quite understand what you mean by that

:10:31. > :10:35.question but I think that the tension between Carwyn Jones and

:10:36. > :10:43.Jeremy Corbyn is something that certainly resonated... I was talking

:10:44. > :10:47.about your party. I don't understand the basis of the question, at Prime

:10:48. > :10:52.Minister's Questions last week the Prime Minister was praising Andrew

:10:53. > :10:57.RT Davies. You know what I'm getting at, there was a big split in Europe

:10:58. > :11:01.and one is in favour of leaving but Andrew RT Davies is in charge of

:11:02. > :11:06.staying. Warm handshakes were being overinterpreted, where they? It is

:11:07. > :11:09.something that has been overinterpreted and the media bubble

:11:10. > :11:14.like to focus on but on the doorstep nothing of the sword came out. It is

:11:15. > :11:17.quite important to recognise that on the ground in the campaign in the

:11:18. > :11:23.Doug Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff North and North East Wales and mid

:11:24. > :11:25.Wales the campaigns have been excellent and has not been much

:11:26. > :11:29.leakage of the vote and the challenge is whether we get the vote

:11:30. > :11:33.out. Naturally in the past conservative voters have not been as

:11:34. > :11:38.motivated at Assembly elections as they have been at general elections,

:11:39. > :11:42.in contrast to the other extreme of Plaid Cymru voters who are possibly

:11:43. > :11:45.more motivated in an Assembly Election. The turnout will be

:11:46. > :11:50.slightly different today because the weather was so good and I think that

:11:51. > :11:55.could play a factor in many of the seats that will be very close. The

:11:56. > :12:00.other message that came out of the campaign for me is how disconnected

:12:01. > :12:05.north-east Wales feels with the political bubbling Cardiff Bay. I

:12:06. > :12:09.think it is a challenge for all of the parties, but particularly for

:12:10. > :12:13.the Labour Party and I hope that we can do as innovative as we can

:12:14. > :12:18.possibly be in terms of devolving powers within Wales because

:12:19. > :12:22.certainly to large parts of North Wales they do not feel as though

:12:23. > :12:25.power has been devolved to them, it has simply been devolved from one

:12:26. > :12:30.centre of government in London to another centre of government in

:12:31. > :12:35.Cardiff. Just before you go, what would be a good night for you and

:12:36. > :12:40.where are you predicting the seats that you might get? Do you agree

:12:41. > :12:44.with the polls, putting you at 11 or 12? I think it is easy to disagree

:12:45. > :12:49.with the polls on the basis of the experience 12 months ago, so let us

:12:50. > :12:52.see. The only poll that matters is the one that is being counted behind

:12:53. > :12:56.me in all the constituencies throughout the rest of Wales. One

:12:57. > :13:01.broad prediction that we can make is that if Labour do lose control of

:13:02. > :13:04.the Assembly, if I would have said that two year may be a short number

:13:05. > :13:09.of years ago you might have laughed at me but I think the prospect of

:13:10. > :13:14.Labour losing control of the Assembly when the electoral system

:13:15. > :13:18.is clearly designed in their favour, with only a third of the votes they

:13:19. > :13:23.can get 50% of the membership so if they lose control of the Assembly it

:13:24. > :13:24.is a body blow to Labour in Wales and also to Jeremy Corbyn across the

:13:25. > :13:46.UK. Thank you very much. Early projections up here are quite

:13:47. > :13:49.good. There is no threat to you but what

:13:50. > :13:57.do you think the party is having as a night in general? There has been a

:13:58. > :14:00.lot of good feeling in the Time running up to this campaign, a lot

:14:01. > :14:04.of observers would agree it has been a very unified campaign with a lot

:14:05. > :14:08.of energy. I am convinced personally that we had the most innovative

:14:09. > :14:13.programme for government and obviously we are looking to make

:14:14. > :14:17.gains in terms of voting share and hopefully numbers of seats

:14:18. > :14:21.throughout Wales. We will find out in a few hours. You should make

:14:22. > :14:26.gains, it would be a very bad night for you if you did not make any

:14:27. > :14:28.games, you would acknowledge that. Standing still in this climate, with

:14:29. > :14:35.various things in your favour, surely you have to make gains? I

:14:36. > :14:39.would certainly be hoping to make gains. We know that the electoral

:14:40. > :14:44.system that we have in Wales is a rather hard nut to crack but I am

:14:45. > :14:49.happy that it will be a good night for Plaid Cymru tonight. What sort

:14:50. > :14:53.of campaign has Leanne Wood had? Your leader, you often mentioned as

:14:54. > :14:58.a potential candidate for the leadership, along with Adam Price,

:14:59. > :15:03.has she performed well? I think she has had a very good campaign. I

:15:04. > :15:08.think the experience that they am brought from the leaders debates

:15:09. > :15:14.last year stood in very good stead and we saw that in the televised

:15:15. > :15:18.debates this year. It is also the warmth that people show towards

:15:19. > :15:21.Leeanne on the doorstep and on the streets, the length and breadth of

:15:22. > :15:25.Wales, that really shows through and I think she will be very happy

:15:26. > :15:30.looking back at the way things have gone.

:15:31. > :15:37.Would you like to lead the party one day? I will always play my part to

:15:38. > :15:42.the fall within the party, I hope I have shown that over the past 2.5

:15:43. > :15:47.years, the short time I have been politics. Mark Reckless answered

:15:48. > :15:52.that question with one word, he said no, you didn't say no. There is no

:15:53. > :15:56.vacancy now, I don't see that there will be on for a while. I will

:15:57. > :16:01.always play my part of the fall, goodness knows what that by P. My

:16:02. > :16:10.priority tonight is to stay as an Assembly Member. Thank you, Rhun ap

:16:11. > :16:15.Iorwerth. We have a new panel, let's go over the Fliss. Thank you. Let's

:16:16. > :16:23.introduce my new panel, fresh faces. We will start with Jim Carver, a

:16:24. > :16:30.Ukip European MP. Then we have got Wayne David, a Labour MP for

:16:31. > :16:35.Caerphilly. Then we have got a representative from the Green Party.

:16:36. > :16:40.Then over here on my far left we have Plaid Cymru, then Craig

:16:41. > :16:43.Williams, MP for Cardiff North the Conservatives, and a baroness for

:16:44. > :16:48.the Liberal Democrats. Thank you for taking your places for the next few

:16:49. > :16:52.hours. We will start with you, Amelia, for the Greens. We haven't

:16:53. > :16:57.heard from the Greens on the Soviet. How would you sum up your campaign?

:16:58. > :17:02.It has been an inspiring campaign. Not many people had heard of the

:17:03. > :17:06.Green Party, we don't have a seat at the moment. As the campaign has gone

:17:07. > :17:15.on, we have made a rated people to get out and vote, we have inspired

:17:16. > :17:17.people, and I think that inspiration comes from other Greens that have

:17:18. > :17:19.been elected. Knowing what Caroline Lucas has done in Westminster, even

:17:20. > :17:24.seeing what happened in Scotland and just the difference of a handful of

:17:25. > :17:28.Greens, even if they are not usually a Green voter people see the need

:17:29. > :17:33.for this breakthrough and to get us are elected to make that difference.

:17:34. > :17:37.You have been drowned out by Ukip though. There was talk of three

:17:38. > :17:42.seats, that is what your leader wanted to see. The chances of that

:17:43. > :17:47.fairly nonexistent, aren't they? I feel like in South Wales Central

:17:48. > :17:52.berries that opportunity. Just small gains can make such a difference. So

:17:53. > :17:56.go there is that opportunity. We all know with polls that the margins for

:17:57. > :18:00.error showed just that 2% change will get the Greens elected in those

:18:01. > :18:07.areas. We know that margins are tight tonight in a lot of these

:18:08. > :18:10.results. From the perspective of Ukip, Jim Carver, you are expected

:18:11. > :18:18.to be the story of the night in one sense. It is even a sign, it is

:18:19. > :18:22.predictions. On the doorstep we are hearing this from all political

:18:23. > :18:27.colours, the European Union issue has come up on the doorstep. You

:18:28. > :18:32.have benefited from the parallel EU referendum? Of course, you know,

:18:33. > :18:41.Ukip has been working very, very hard. For many years, I have always

:18:42. > :18:45.believed in our possibility. The time has come, he would have thought

:18:46. > :18:49.that we would come within a few thousand votes of beating Labour in

:18:50. > :18:53.the European election in Wales? This has been a long time coming, people

:18:54. > :18:57.have been working hard consistently. We are going to see our first

:18:58. > :19:02.representation, I think. That is a story in itself. We would be the

:19:03. > :19:06.first party to breakthrough since the Assembly was formed. You didn't

:19:07. > :19:11.contest as a single contest is my constituency seat last time, did

:19:12. > :19:15.you? It is a remarkable push if the polls are right, Wayne David, the

:19:16. > :19:20.night. And they have a massive health warning after last year. A

:19:21. > :19:23.difficult campaign for Labour. You had a high watermark performance in

:19:24. > :19:28.2011, and you are inevitably going to lose seats this time around. What

:19:29. > :19:34.is an acceptable loss, and when does it damage Carwyn Jones? I think any

:19:35. > :19:38.predictions and analysis, we does have to wait and see. What is very

:19:39. > :19:42.clear is that things are going to be very close in a number of

:19:43. > :19:49.constituencies, and also on regional lists. What is also clear is that we

:19:50. > :19:53.are in a different politics, quite frankly. And the old binary division

:19:54. > :19:58.of Labour and Conservatives is well behind us, we are in a different

:19:59. > :20:01.kind of politics. We are likely to see increased differential voting

:20:02. > :20:05.due to people voting for one party in one election and another party in

:20:06. > :20:08.another election. There is a great deal of volatility, which makes it

:20:09. > :20:13.all the more interesting but difficult to predict what will

:20:14. > :20:17.happen. Craig Williams, you were in a scrap with Plaid Cymru for second

:20:18. > :20:23.party place this time around? I don't think so. I have, being the

:20:24. > :20:27.new MP for Cardiff North, I don't think any poll predicted that so I

:20:28. > :20:34.take them all with a pinch of salt. So-called exit poll, you would

:20:35. > :20:38.probably call Trading Standards in on them! Our party has led from the

:20:39. > :20:44.front, you have seen that in the last 36 hours when we have been

:20:45. > :20:49.touring in the battlebus. I think he has sat out a very clear vision. It

:20:50. > :20:53.is interesting, this campaign. I agree with win to a point about how

:20:54. > :20:58.people are starting to approach these elections. -- with Wayne.

:20:59. > :21:01.People asked our team to realise about the huge areas of competence

:21:02. > :21:05.the Welsh Assembly and the government has -- people asked

:21:06. > :21:12.outing. And also that one party has dominated it. In the years. Although

:21:13. > :21:16.you are coming off the back of the best ever performance in 2011 in the

:21:17. > :21:19.Assembly elections. And as you have already referred to, and

:21:20. > :21:23.unexpectedly good performance in last year's general election. How

:21:24. > :21:27.much pressure is there an Andrew Marr to Dave is, your leader, to

:21:28. > :21:33.continue to deliver in that weight -- Andrew RT Davies. If you lose the

:21:34. > :21:38.Plaid, how damaging is that? I am not counting this at the moment, it

:21:39. > :21:44.is very early on. Andrew sat out his stall clearly. He said he is the

:21:45. > :21:47.leader, he has led this campaign and he has set out his vision and his

:21:48. > :21:52.team and very much fought from the front. I think every election that I

:21:53. > :21:55.have been on a programme, a spectator or candidate, they said

:21:56. > :21:59.you did remarkably well as the Conservative Party in Wales, what

:22:00. > :22:02.about this, how did you beat this? Year after year we have seen the

:22:03. > :22:07.party chains spectacularly from the days when we didn't want the

:22:08. > :22:11.creation of the Welsh Assembly to where we are now, and insisting that

:22:12. > :22:13.we have some accountability and taxation powers in Wales. The

:22:14. > :22:18.transition for the Welsh Conservative Party is massive.

:22:19. > :22:25.Andrew has the policies, and he has certainly got that energy. OK.

:22:26. > :22:28.Disappointing performances from Plaid in 2011, a poor performance

:22:29. > :22:33.last year in the general election, how much pressure on Leanne Wood to

:22:34. > :22:38.show that she can make a difference this time? Obviously we are looking

:22:39. > :22:41.for an increase in the number of seats, and as we mentioned,

:22:42. > :22:45.hopefully getting that second part daters. There are result of love

:22:46. > :22:49.fully on an party in terms of her credibility, her warmth on the

:22:50. > :22:54.doorstep, the way she has united the party -- love for Leanne. She has

:22:55. > :23:02.run a positive campaign. We are hoping to see games tonight. We saw

:23:03. > :23:05.Rhun ap Iorwerth refusing to rule out his contention as leader.

:23:06. > :23:11.Obviously some people are thinking about it. You have got to remember

:23:12. > :23:14.that Leanne won the leadership contest quite convincingly. Members

:23:15. > :23:18.are happy in terms of the profile she has managed to raise for herself

:23:19. > :23:22.and the party on the UK stage like we have never had before. There is a

:23:23. > :23:25.lot of love for hiring the party, that is not a question, and

:23:26. > :23:32.hopefully we will see some games tonight -- love for her in the

:23:33. > :23:35.party. For the Liberal Democrats, Baroness, it looks like another

:23:36. > :23:39.traumatic experience tonight. What are your thoughts on whether you

:23:40. > :23:47.will leader, Kirsty Williams, can keep her seat? I think she is

:23:48. > :23:53.probably going to keep Percy. It is very difficult to predict these

:23:54. > :23:56.things, obviously. -- keep her seat. It has felt very much better in this

:23:57. > :24:05.campaign than it did this time last year. Obviously, the situation we

:24:06. > :24:08.were in after the last general election onwards, it is not

:24:09. > :24:13.something we are going to recover from in an instant. It is going to

:24:14. > :24:17.take hard work. But the interesting thing about this campaign has been

:24:18. > :24:23.that we have got so many new members who have flooded into the party,

:24:24. > :24:28.they are very enthusiastic and there is a new spirit of optimism in the

:24:29. > :24:35.party. And, you know, the polls predicted that we were going to be

:24:36. > :24:39.annihilated in 2011. We ended up with five assemblyman Buzz. Let's

:24:40. > :24:46.wait and see. Do you have a figure in your mind? -- Assembly Members.

:24:47. > :24:53.I'm not predicting that. I'm just being cautious about the fact that

:24:54. > :25:00.the polls are consistently wrong about us here in Wales. And, you

:25:01. > :25:05.know, we are very tenacious. I also take the view that in a modern

:25:06. > :25:14.democracy, there has to be space for a Liberal party. And across the

:25:15. > :25:18.world, it shows that Liberal parties can go through difficult times, but

:25:19. > :25:23.they come back. Just look at Canada. You know, the Liberals went through

:25:24. > :25:29.the same phase in Canada. They now run the government. OK, that is

:25:30. > :25:34.certainly an optimistic take! I'm not saying that is going to happen

:25:35. > :25:39.here... But there has to be space for liberalism in British politics.

:25:40. > :25:43.I'm sure that we are here to stay. Thank you very much. Back to my

:25:44. > :25:49.guests very shortly. Beth, back to you. Thank you very much, Fliss. I

:25:50. > :25:57.will show you some laborious shots now. The listeners on BBC Radio

:25:58. > :26:00.Wales, they say the Hamiltons are having a chat and going for a

:26:01. > :26:08.selfie. They are organising themselves there. Christine Hamilton

:26:09. > :26:15.is getting very close to Helen Mary Jones in front of the cameras there.

:26:16. > :26:23.If we look at pictures in Bridgend, I think we can see Carwyn Jones at

:26:24. > :26:29.his account, a broad smile there, wearing his save our steel badge, as

:26:30. > :26:35.he has through most of the campaign. Let me show you a result that is in

:26:36. > :26:41.from Scotland. The Orkney Islands. The Lib Dems holding on to walk me.

:26:42. > :26:49.That doesn't mean that the SNP get a clean sweep. More results are coming

:26:50. > :26:55.again shortly. They have one somewhere else. This was a weather

:26:56. > :27:02.bowl seat, if they take this it is looking good for the SNP. Orkney is

:27:03. > :27:08.held by the Lib Dems. Two Scottish results. Let's take a look at the

:27:09. > :27:25.Rutherglen result in detail. There we go. SNP Claire Haughey takes it.

:27:26. > :27:38.Their turnout in this Scottish seat, 54% -- the turnout. A majority of

:27:39. > :27:44.more than 3000. The share of the vote is 46% for the SNP, down on

:27:45. > :27:46.their performance overall in the general election last year, just

:27:47. > :28:06.slightly. But Labour, 35%. The SNP is down 7%, as I was saying.

:28:07. > :28:12.That is the turnout at 54, the SNP is up, but on other graphics it is

:28:13. > :28:16.down. It has moved, it has gone up. We need a Professor! Let's find a

:28:17. > :28:20.professor. Laura McAllister is joining us now, thank you for

:28:21. > :28:26.joining us. The ups and downs of the campaign so far. Turnout, 54% we saw

:28:27. > :28:28.in Rutherglen. We are getting some indication of turnout in other

:28:29. > :28:34.constituencies in Wales. Nothing like as big? No, nothing close. We

:28:35. > :28:38.are hearing about Bridgend, around about 44, I think. Ogmore, where

:28:39. > :28:44.there is a parliamentary by-election as well, around the same amount.

:28:45. > :28:48.Further east in North these Wales, and in Deeside, actually lower than

:28:49. > :28:52.in the last election at around 35%. A lot of us predicted that the

:28:53. > :28:56.turnout will be variable across Wales. And that will be the case.

:28:57. > :28:59.Very important of course, that will determine where these absolutely

:29:00. > :29:06.critical swing seats actually end up. From a low turnout, if it turns

:29:07. > :29:10.out to be so, can we say at this early stage who will benefit and who

:29:11. > :29:15.will not? I don't think we can. I think it is massively dependent on a

:29:16. > :29:19.very localised dimension. In some areas, a low turnout will actually

:29:20. > :29:23.suit Labour, in other areas it will suit the Conservatives. Of course,

:29:24. > :29:27.in other seats where Plaid Cymru is time doing it will be a different

:29:28. > :29:34.picture again. We can't draw any conclusions, but it will be a factor

:29:35. > :29:37.in terms of whether these seats go to one party or another. Sarah, you

:29:38. > :29:41.follow the campaign closely, and several over the years. What does it

:29:42. > :29:45.say about the legitimacy of the Welsh Assembly, and the lack of

:29:46. > :29:48.interest on the ground, can we read that in the mid-? One thing that has

:29:49. > :29:53.become really clear with this campaign is that, you know, in

:29:54. > :29:57.economic terms particularly -- can we read that into it. People keep

:29:58. > :30:01.being reminded that things are in the power of the Welsh Government

:30:02. > :30:09.and other things are not. That complication, which, you know, too

:30:10. > :30:11.many people, for those of us who live in this world that is

:30:12. > :30:13.different, but for many people it doesn't seem like a clear

:30:14. > :30:16.difference, this might perhaps make them less feel that they can make a

:30:17. > :30:20.difference by going to vote. For instance, steel being discussed all

:30:21. > :30:25.through this campaign has made us hugely aware that our economy isn't

:30:26. > :30:28.just affected by things that happen in Westminster but by global crises.

:30:29. > :30:32.Whether that makes people more likely to vote or not, I don't know.

:30:33. > :30:37.But perhaps they feel less in control of the economy. I don't know

:30:38. > :30:42.what you would say to that, Laura. It has been an odd campaign in terms

:30:43. > :30:47.of which issues have framed it. You can on full behold campaign, it has

:30:48. > :30:53.been European dominated, it has been British or UK dominated, and

:30:54. > :30:55.latterly, particularly with the leaders debated became focused on

:30:56. > :30:58.public policy issues of health and education. But none of them have had

:30:59. > :31:01.the traction that they needed to motivate people who want already in

:31:02. > :31:18.this world of engaged with Welsh politics.

:31:19. > :31:26.Some of these issues can mean very different things in different parts

:31:27. > :31:31.of Wales. Transport can mean the end for or other things. When we went to

:31:32. > :31:35.speak to people as journalists people were talking about

:31:36. > :31:39.connectivity better wages and similar themes but the solutions

:31:40. > :31:43.were very different depending on where you live. Laura, during the

:31:44. > :31:49.general election we were talking about education and health and these

:31:50. > :31:55.things are not devolved so we shouldn't be talking about them but

:31:56. > :32:01.this time the situation is reversed. Are we wrong to try compartmentalise

:32:02. > :32:05.things and is politics everywhere? The reality is that that is the

:32:06. > :32:09.nature of multilayered politics. It is very hard for people to separate

:32:10. > :32:12.out which deer is actually responsible for the things that

:32:13. > :32:15.bother them because in their minds those other issues that they want to

:32:16. > :32:19.talk about at that moment and I think some of the tactics that were

:32:20. > :32:22.at play during the UK general election were very different to the

:32:23. > :32:26.ones that the parties have employed this time around but the other thing

:32:27. > :32:38.about turnout, and what will be interesting if we have time to delve

:32:39. > :32:41.more deeply into it is differential turnout between age groups, and this

:32:42. > :32:43.will play a really important part in terms of where the seats land in

:32:44. > :32:46.each of the parties, that older people are more likely to vote. The

:32:47. > :32:49.politicians don't get to choose what the electorate wants to talk about.

:32:50. > :32:53.One candidate told me that about one in five doors they knocked on wanted

:32:54. > :32:57.to talk about Europe. Yes, we have found that as well but that is to

:32:58. > :33:01.come. Let us talk now to Carwyn Jones who can join us from Bridgend.

:33:02. > :33:08.First Minister, is very good morning. It is a good morning for

:33:09. > :33:12.your party? I have fought five elections and I know it is far too

:33:13. > :33:16.early to tell what the final outcome might be. We have fought very hard

:33:17. > :33:20.and we have been all over Wales and we need to wait and see what the

:33:21. > :33:23.final result is. We are hearing that perhaps you are vulnerable in some

:33:24. > :33:33.key seats like the Vale of Glamorgan and Wrexham, are you hearing any of

:33:34. > :33:40.that? You are not even hearing me at the moment, are you? Sorry, missed

:33:41. > :33:44.that. I can now, I was a joy to avoid an awkward question! I thought

:33:45. > :33:48.it was a good tactic. We are hearing that perhaps you are vulnerable in

:33:49. > :33:55.places like Vale of Clwyd walk in the Vale of Clwyd, are you aware of

:33:56. > :33:58.any of that? What I am seeing is lots of different party saying lots

:33:59. > :34:02.of different things. I know full well that a lot of the things you

:34:03. > :34:06.hear on Twitter is inaccurate so from our perspective it is too early

:34:07. > :34:10.to tell yet. A lot of work went on and we knew was going to be a tough

:34:11. > :34:16.campaign so let us wait and see. Was it good to have Jeremy Corbyn

:34:17. > :34:20.campaigning with you this week? It was a good campaign this week. We

:34:21. > :34:23.knocked on a lot of doors and saw a lot of people at my feet are pretty

:34:24. > :34:27.sore at the moment. I don't think we could have done more and it is

:34:28. > :34:31.fantastic response that we had, both from the public and also from our

:34:32. > :34:35.own people who knocked on doors day in and day out for many weeks. The

:34:36. > :34:40.question was about Jeremy Corbyn, was it good to have him by your

:34:41. > :34:44.side? It was good to welcome Jeremy to Wales. He is very personable with

:34:45. > :34:51.people and he showed that when he visited my area and I was more than

:34:52. > :34:55.happy to welcome him. Are you concerned at all about his troubled

:34:56. > :34:58.in Westminster over allegations of anti-Semitism and all of that, how

:34:59. > :35:07.fat cat out of the campaign in Wales? -- has that clouded the

:35:08. > :35:12.campaign in Wales? I cannot pretend it didn't come up but it did up that

:35:13. > :35:16.much. What I heard last week and said last week was strong that

:35:17. > :35:20.people making those comments have no place in the Labour Party or in the

:35:21. > :35:24.Welsh Labour Party. Polls have consistently said that he won't

:35:25. > :35:30.cross the 30 seats that you need for a majority. If we are talking 2627

:35:31. > :35:39.or 28, who would you pick the phone up to first tomorrow morning? We do

:35:40. > :35:42.not know the arithmetic yet, it is far too early. First we need to

:35:43. > :35:45.understand what the make-up of the Assembly is and until we know that

:35:46. > :35:51.it would be impossible for any party to think about what happens next.

:35:52. > :35:55.Let us see the results next. Is every option on the table? If it

:35:56. > :35:59.turned out like that, would you consider going it alone? The first

:36:00. > :36:03.objective for us is to be in the position we were in before and it

:36:04. > :36:07.will be very tough to do that. We had a good result in 2011 and there

:36:08. > :36:13.is a lot of speculation out there at the moment so we will see what the

:36:14. > :36:17.final result actually says. Are you hearing anything about turnout and

:36:18. > :36:23.would you be concerned if it fell below 40%, for example? From what I

:36:24. > :36:28.am hearing about turnout, it seems to be up. Certainly where I am here

:36:29. > :36:33.in Bridgend turnout seems to be up from where it was in 2011. The

:36:34. > :36:36.polling stations seems to be busier and from our perspective we worked

:36:37. > :36:40.very hard to try and get the Labour vote out and there are indications

:36:41. > :36:46.that it happened, but we have to wait and see what the result shows

:36:47. > :36:53.us but the indications I have seen so far shows that the turnout might

:36:54. > :36:57.well be up from last time. We are hearing about 44% of your patch in

:36:58. > :37:03.Bridgend. Thank you very much. That would be 2% up from last time. I

:37:04. > :37:09.hope we will speak again in the programme later. We will touch base

:37:10. > :37:13.with our reporters around Wales. We will start in Ceredigion. How is the

:37:14. > :37:18.count going? Counting is still underway here and

:37:19. > :37:22.in fact they are still not counting, they are in the verification phase.

:37:23. > :37:28.This is a large constituency so boxes have been arriving from rural

:37:29. > :37:32.areas far from here. There were concerns that there were queues with

:37:33. > :37:35.cars queueing outside hoping to deliver some of the boxes but they

:37:36. > :37:39.had been waiting for more than an hour in order to bring the boxes

:37:40. > :37:43.into the wall. Another factor is, they say, some say this has not

:37:44. > :37:47.happened before and the officials say there are three papers to

:37:48. > :37:50.counted every box so they take time to arrive at the tables and also a

:37:51. > :37:56.number of fans were apparently being blamed for blocking parts of the way

:37:57. > :38:00.as well, one of the BBC plans was part of them allegedly. So far they

:38:01. > :38:02.are still in the verification process and hopefully turnout will

:38:03. > :38:06.be announced after that has finished and then they will start counting.

:38:07. > :38:13.They will start with the constituency seat in the declaration

:38:14. > :38:16.of that is due about 4am and then they will go on to count the

:38:17. > :38:24.regional element of this seat, of course. It is a seat that has been

:38:25. > :38:33.held by Aled Jones of Plaid Cymru since 1999. Hoping to gain ground

:38:34. > :38:38.and make a dent in her majority of around 2000 is a local councillor

:38:39. > :38:42.for the Liberal Democrats, Elizabeth Evans. She is very popular

:38:43. > :38:46.councillor here in Ceredigion and it has been an interesting campaign

:38:47. > :38:49.with a number of placards around the county and it is certainly a two

:38:50. > :38:53.woman race. Plaid Cymru were very concerned at one point that they

:38:54. > :38:57.were losing ground and the Liberal Democrats were actually gaining more

:38:58. > :39:02.support, potentially moving on from the momentum that was gained in the

:39:03. > :39:07.last year's general election when the Liberal Democrats managed to

:39:08. > :39:11.keep on to this seat. Mark Williams is the only Liberal Democrat MP in

:39:12. > :39:14.Wales, he is in this seat. Plaid Cymru this evening are looking more

:39:15. > :39:20.relaxed, even though the counting has not started. A lot of the major

:39:21. > :39:23.boxes, the big boxes from across the county have actually arrived and

:39:24. > :39:28.they look a bit more relaxed than they seemed earlier on this evening.

:39:29. > :39:33.They have accused the Lib Democrats over the last few weeks of running a

:39:34. > :39:37.dirty campaign and using pamphlets that were slightly deceptive, in

:39:38. > :39:41.their words, to the electorate by the Liberal Democrats were saying

:39:42. > :39:45.that they were only actually voicing the concerns of residents that they

:39:46. > :39:50.had spoken to so as I said the declaration here is expected at

:39:51. > :39:56.around 4am for the seat and about 6am for the regional tally as well.

:39:57. > :40:00.Thank you very much. Let us go to Newport and our reporter there in

:40:01. > :40:06.the velodrome. What is going on there?

:40:07. > :40:11.Well, we are in the velodrome and the brace for Newport is well and

:40:12. > :40:14.truly underway. It is quite a simple picture in Newport, it has been a

:40:15. > :40:19.Labour stronghold with rosemary Butler, the presiding officer who

:40:20. > :40:24.has held Newport West since the creation of the National Assembly

:40:25. > :40:27.and a similar picture in Newport East where Jonathan Griffiths has

:40:28. > :40:29.held that seats in the creation of the National Assembly so it would be

:40:30. > :40:36.interesting to see what happens to the Labour vote in Newport. Rosemary

:40:37. > :40:43.Butler is standing down so will be interesting to see whether Jayne

:40:44. > :40:45.Bryant can that seat and by what kind of margin. It has been quite a

:40:46. > :40:51.fight in a Newport West. It has been a fight of local personalities,

:40:52. > :40:55.really strong figures spearheading local campaigns in that constituency

:40:56. > :40:59.so it will be interesting to see what happens to the Labour will vote

:41:00. > :41:03.in a Newport West and East and in terms of the national picture it

:41:04. > :41:11.will be interesting to see what effect Ukip Avenue on the national

:41:12. > :41:17.National regional vote. We heard from Mark Reckless for Ukip earlier

:41:18. > :41:23.on who was confident when he spoke to BBC Wales and he has a UK wild --

:41:24. > :41:27.UK wide profile. They are targeting this region because at the last

:41:28. > :41:31.general election they came second in three of the constituencies that

:41:32. > :41:35.make up this region. Nigel Farage has been in Newport on Tuesday and

:41:36. > :41:39.Wednesday and so they are really gunning for a seat in this region.

:41:40. > :41:43.It will be interesting to see what happens to the Labour vote in

:41:44. > :41:49.Newport East and West and see what kind of impact Ukip make in the

:41:50. > :42:01.regional vote. Let us cross to the seats in

:42:02. > :42:05.north-east Wales. We go to Denbigh. Are they still counting? The

:42:06. > :42:09.verification is complete and they are about to start counting. They

:42:10. > :42:13.are just having a brief break and some refreshments at the moment but

:42:14. > :42:21.they are about to start the counting, thankfully. There is real

:42:22. > :42:27.interest in this constituency. Surely the main target for the

:42:28. > :42:32.Conservatives in this part of Wales, seemingly a Labour comfortable seat,

:42:33. > :42:35.a 4000 majority we had at the last Assembly elections, but if last

:42:36. > :42:41.year's general election is anything to go by then this seat now is a

:42:42. > :42:44.marginal, 200 votes also separated the Conservatives from Labour last

:42:45. > :42:52.May when the Conservatives snatched it from a Labour, much to Labour's

:42:53. > :42:55.surprise. Labour are now saying that that result was a wake-up call to

:42:56. > :43:01.their supporters this time around. Health was a big issue back last May

:43:02. > :43:08.and the candidate for the Conservatives last year was a local

:43:09. > :43:16.GP, Doctor James Davis, who happens to be stood behind me, I will try

:43:17. > :43:19.and grab him. The obvious question, how was it looking? I think it is

:43:20. > :43:22.very difficult to tell, it was like it was this time last year for my

:43:23. > :43:25.election, we are seeing the ballot papers being flicked through and

:43:26. > :43:30.vote for Labour and Conservative looking relative li equally spread,

:43:31. > :43:37.to be honest. What sort of campaign has it been here? It has been an

:43:38. > :43:41.active campaign with people talking about the health service and local

:43:42. > :43:45.businesses and education, all the issues that affect people really

:43:46. > :43:50.nationwide. It has certainly been one weather has been an awful lot of

:43:51. > :43:54.doorknocking so engagement with the public. One of the big issues last

:43:55. > :43:59.time was the uncertainty surrounding the maternity unit and to some

:44:00. > :44:09.extent that issue has gone away with the announcement of the sub regional

:44:10. > :44:14.neonatal care unit, a specialist centre, have a major campaign more

:44:15. > :44:17.difficult? I don't think so, that was one of many issues in their

:44:18. > :44:21.previous election and health is devolved and some people understand

:44:22. > :44:24.that in some people don't but it was a key issue that people wanted

:44:25. > :44:27.addressed and, yes, it was something that featured in the general

:44:28. > :44:31.election. You are right, it is no longer at the forefront of people's

:44:32. > :44:37.minds because largely the issue is now solved, which is great news, but

:44:38. > :44:39.there are still huge problems with the health service in North Wales

:44:40. > :44:43.which need addressing and I think people are aware of that. What are

:44:44. > :44:49.you hearing from other seats tonight? How was it looking? Not a

:44:50. > :44:53.lot really, I have been focusing on what is going on here but all I can

:44:54. > :44:57.say from what I have seen here is that the Conservative vote is

:44:58. > :45:01.looking good and I am really pleased about that and we will need to see

:45:02. > :45:08.what happens as the votes get counted up shortly. Can I push one

:45:09. > :45:12.that? Are you prepared to predict? I really can't, it is too hard to

:45:13. > :45:15.tell. In some wards we are ahead and in others behind, as expected and

:45:16. > :45:19.when you put them all together and out in the postal vote I have not

:45:20. > :45:23.seen, it is anyone's guess. Thank you for joining us, thank you very

:45:24. > :45:30.much. They are about to start counting here in Denbigh. If it is

:45:31. > :45:33.as close as last year then there will be a recount and that means

:45:34. > :45:39.that we will obviously be in for a long night here in the Vale of Clwyd

:45:40. > :45:41.but at the moment someone mentioned about 3am for us so we will have to

:45:42. > :45:50.wait and see. Health is clearly a massive issue

:45:51. > :45:55.there. Let's go to the Spin Room to talk more about health with Jason.

:45:56. > :46:00.Welcome back to the Spin Room, lots of discussion here about business.

:46:01. > :46:03.We have talked about the economy, jobs and education, and I can hear a

:46:04. > :46:07.conversation about Europe, we will come onto to that shortly. In the

:46:08. > :46:11.meantime, let's talk about health with Owain Clarke, and Anthony

:46:12. > :46:16.pickles, former Conservative adviser, good evening to you. And

:46:17. > :46:22.the director of the Royal College of Nursing in Wales. Nice to see you. I

:46:23. > :46:25.remember doing interviews with Andrew RT Davies on Radio Wales, and

:46:26. > :46:30.also the First Minister, Carwyn Jones. What was really interesting,

:46:31. > :46:35.Andrew RT Davies came piling in talking about extra money into the

:46:36. > :46:39.Welsh NHS. But what was fascinating, he started talking about mental

:46:40. > :46:45.health. That was a big, big issue for him. It is a big issue. Mental

:46:46. > :46:48.health is one of the things that all the parties in their manifestos

:46:49. > :46:51.agree upon. You will find commitments on mental health in all

:46:52. > :46:56.the party manifestos this year. But you talk about the politicians

:46:57. > :46:59.motioning health. That is not a surprise. On the ground, it is a

:47:00. > :47:06.massive issue. We have been out and about on BBC Wales election tour,

:47:07. > :47:11.and if you meet people in a cafe or White town square and ask them, what

:47:12. > :47:15.is your personal priority in the selection? They always mention

:47:16. > :47:18.health. Naturally enough, we all depend on the health service. But

:47:19. > :47:21.they all know about the demands on the health service, they are

:47:22. > :47:28.increasing all the time. It might be about, there not really any simple

:47:29. > :47:33.answers to that. Then again, you get those big kind of national issues.

:47:34. > :47:37.But local issues are prominent this campaign, and given the size of

:47:38. > :47:42.Wales, those local issues become national issues, if you like. The

:47:43. > :47:50.future of hospital services in West Wales, massive local issue. These

:47:51. > :47:54.problems that the backdrop to this campaign, cross-border concerns in

:47:55. > :47:59.East Wales. These local issues do play a part in the campaign. The

:48:00. > :48:03.problem perhaps in this campaign has been that health has been talked

:48:04. > :48:08.about so much in recent years, argued about so much. There was not

:48:09. > :48:12.that sense in the campaign centrally of the moment that everybody went,

:48:13. > :48:17.OK, I didn't realise that. People may have thought, I have heard that

:48:18. > :48:27.before. That is perhaps on, you know, when you are talking about the

:48:28. > :48:30.politicians talking about it. There hasn't been that wow moment on

:48:31. > :48:32.health. Did you get a sense that people, the electorate, have become

:48:33. > :48:35.tired of politicians arguing about the NHS in Wales? I'm pretty sure

:48:36. > :48:41.you have a good memory of this, the David Cameron lying about, a matter

:48:42. > :48:45.of life and death, the Welsh- English border. -- the David Cameron

:48:46. > :48:49.line. Do you think people have become tired of that kind of

:48:50. > :48:52.politics? It is really soul destroying, whether you remember of

:48:53. > :48:55.the public wanting to go into health, you have got politicians

:48:56. > :48:59.arguing about the calibre of care they are going to receive. And then

:49:00. > :49:03.you have got the staff who are trying in very difficult

:49:04. > :49:06.circumstances to give the optimum standard of care without the

:49:07. > :49:10.resources to deliver on it. From our perspective, across the broad

:49:11. > :49:19.clinicians are fed up with the idea that we don't have a ten year vision

:49:20. > :49:21.of a NHS in Wales. The Royal colleges wrote to all the party

:49:22. > :49:27.leaders saying, can we have a ten year vision and work to make it

:49:28. > :49:32.happen? They are the people who know the solutions. From our perspective,

:49:33. > :49:37.we are fed up with the arguing. It is no different in any other parts

:49:38. > :49:41.of the UK. I represent Wales, but I am a UK organisation, it is no

:49:42. > :49:46.different in England, Scotland, or Northern Ireland. The pressures

:49:47. > :49:51.asked all there. We have an older population needing more health care.

:49:52. > :49:55.There is a junior doctors strike in England. Thankfully the Welsh

:49:56. > :49:58.Government have listened to clinicians in one particular

:49:59. > :50:02.discipline. Having said that, there are also challenges in England with

:50:03. > :50:06.regards to the loss of the student bursary. That is going to have a

:50:07. > :50:10.major effect on student nurses and other health-care Provisionals.

:50:11. > :50:15.People cannot afford on health service salaries to take up loans of

:50:16. > :50:19.about 25 to ?30,000. It is more than what the mortgage might be in some

:50:20. > :50:24.of the areas that people live in. You have to be realistic. Anthony,

:50:25. > :50:29.as a political adviser, former, do you think it has been a tame

:50:30. > :50:33.campaign when it came to Wales? It is interesting. A lot of people was

:50:34. > :50:37.apprised of the vogue is that the NHS had in the election campaign

:50:38. > :50:42.last time around -- were surprised. The NHS run by the Welsh Government

:50:43. > :50:47.is not an issue for Westminster, but it was a central issue election

:50:48. > :50:51.campaign. The reason is the anger that the politicians are hearing on

:50:52. > :50:55.the doorstep, one in seven people are waiting list in Wales. It was a

:50:56. > :51:00.political decision-makers I labouring 2011 to take money out of

:51:01. > :51:05.the NHS budget. -- political decision made by Labour. That didn't

:51:06. > :51:09.happen in England or Scotland. When the budget is 47% of the overall

:51:10. > :51:14.Welsh Government budget, you can understand why reducing get, buy,

:51:15. > :51:21.you know, however much it was, I think they put money back in, I'm

:51:22. > :51:25.not quite sure. It had a huge impact. You will know that this time

:51:26. > :51:31.last year the debate was all about what is the state of the Welsh NHS

:51:32. > :51:37.compared to England. It has been tougher on your party this year. If

:51:38. > :51:43.people look across-the-board, they do see junior doctors on strike --

:51:44. > :51:47.across the border. I don't think there is only getting away from the

:51:48. > :51:52.fact that there are issues across the NHS in the UK. The point is, it

:51:53. > :51:56.was a judgment on policy outcome based on the reduction of cash. As I

:51:57. > :52:00.said, one in seven on the waiting list in Wales, higher than anywhere

:52:01. > :52:04.else. There are no cancer drugs funded Wales when there is in

:52:05. > :52:07.England. You have heart-wrenching stories of patients having to go

:52:08. > :52:10.over the border into England because there were drugs that were not

:52:11. > :52:16.routinely available in Wales, that was shocking, and politicians were

:52:17. > :52:22.hearing it. You mentioned the line that David Cameron used... Was

:52:23. > :52:28.unwise? It wasn't unwise it was. That language was unwise.

:52:29. > :52:34.If you think that language was strong, you should hear what people

:52:35. > :52:38.are saying on the doorsteps, it was even stronger. From our perspective,

:52:39. > :52:41.when you talk to patients and nurses, when that statement was made

:52:42. > :52:46.it was absolutely heart rendering the patience to think that the way

:52:47. > :52:50.in which we try to provide services across the UK and then to be told

:52:51. > :52:54.that the difference is that you will die more readily, I have to finish,

:52:55. > :52:58.more readily in Wales. We have to realise that the Conservative Party

:52:59. > :53:05.or the Conservative and Liberal Democrat party in England did not

:53:06. > :53:09.say the same budget afforded to the social care structure in England.

:53:10. > :53:14.The budget was saved, certainly, or protected, let's say, within the

:53:15. > :53:18.NHS. But realistically we are talking about a continuum of health

:53:19. > :53:22.and social care where money has been taken out of social care. We still

:53:23. > :53:26.have the same problems of not having sufficient resources across the

:53:27. > :53:28.whole of the UK in different pockets of particular health care delivery.

:53:29. > :53:34.You might say surgery is an important point, and it is, but

:53:35. > :53:38.there are mental health care issues across and also in social care, when

:53:39. > :53:43.people cannot get the right care and be intermediate care between being

:53:44. > :53:46.discharged from hospital into the community. There is significant

:53:47. > :53:50.underfunding in the independent sector that provides care homes.

:53:51. > :53:54.That is in Wales as well, but also in Scotland and Northern Ireland. We

:53:55. > :53:58.have seen major homes close in England because of underfunding as

:53:59. > :54:02.well. We have to be realistic with the public and say that if we had a

:54:03. > :54:05.ten year vision when the clinicians and health and social care came

:54:06. > :54:17.together, that is what we are saying from our perspective, we need to

:54:18. > :54:20.actually know where the NHS is going to go in the next ten years. We need

:54:21. > :54:23.the public to be made aware of that. That is what is missing from all the

:54:24. > :54:25.party manifestos, sadly, in Wales, that vision. I have a question about

:54:26. > :54:29.the local issues that you made at the very beginning. The Royal

:54:30. > :54:33.College of Nursing is not alone that... To question the fact that

:54:34. > :54:39.none of the parties in their view is offering this big five or ten year

:54:40. > :54:43.vision. I think the professional bodies like bits of each of what the

:54:44. > :54:48.parties are offering, but they are not convinced that everybody has got

:54:49. > :54:53.all the answers. And I think the public actually agree with that.

:54:54. > :54:56.What politicians aren't telling us, naturally enough, during the

:54:57. > :55:01.election is that perhaps they are offering a lot, they are saying that

:55:02. > :55:06.we will put 150 million into this or that, they are perhaps not engaging

:55:07. > :55:10.as much in being honest with the public about, if demand increases

:55:11. > :55:15.all the time, then the money perhaps will not be able to follow. Are they

:55:16. > :55:21.asking the question, what will the health service not be able to do in

:55:22. > :55:24.five or ten years' time, or how responsibilities might have to beat

:55:25. > :55:30.to ease the pressure on the health service? That is a really tricky to.

:55:31. > :55:34.Let's go back to the point you made at the beginning, we will spin round

:55:35. > :55:38.the table to see if you agree. When you talked about local stories, you

:55:39. > :55:42.know what it is like, you have been on the campaign trail. I talk to

:55:43. > :55:45.people on Radio Wales when the leaders came in, and they said,

:55:46. > :55:50.these are the things that frustrate me about health service. I get great

:55:51. > :55:54.care, when I get to my GP, when I can get a hospital point.

:55:55. > :55:59.Universally people are content with the service they get, however, when

:56:00. > :56:04.you get somebody calling in talking about the hospital, they say they

:56:05. > :56:09.are going to punish their local AM at the ballot box. While this become

:56:10. > :56:14.a local issue? The first and only health board in Wales to be burdens

:56:15. > :56:21.but measures. I expected, if I went up there and asked people -- to be

:56:22. > :56:24.put in special measures. They now say they are making many

:56:25. > :56:29.improvements. Actually people were really quite protective of their

:56:30. > :56:33.local health service. They are protective of staff. They tell you,

:56:34. > :56:38.I have got really great care when I have been involved with the health

:56:39. > :56:42.service. They do find it easier to blame the politicians about this.

:56:43. > :56:47.Especially places like North Wales, mid-Wales, West Wales. They feel out

:56:48. > :56:51.of touch, they feel they are ignored, not only on health but on

:56:52. > :56:56.other issues. They do have this perception that things go to Cardiff

:56:57. > :57:00.and South Wales. The pattern of care that is appropriate for raw Wales is

:57:01. > :57:05.different to urban areas, this is the problem. There is a big debate

:57:06. > :57:11.about, how can we released the same level of care that we have now --

:57:12. > :57:15.rural Wales. Nathan Gill is waiting to talk to us, we have to go

:57:16. > :57:19.briefly. Can you pull out the pictures you have. You have you got?

:57:20. > :57:26.We are putting together a fantasy political football teams. I have got

:57:27. > :57:34.Carwyn Jones. We are looking for two defenders. Peter Black is a good

:57:35. > :57:37.choice. Five years of defending, going left and right, whether he

:57:38. > :57:44.will be available to play is the issue. Leanne perhaps as a player in

:57:45. > :57:49.recent years who has got national attention, wider attention, thinking

:57:50. > :57:54.of the leaders debates last year. On Peter Black, I do say, given his

:57:55. > :57:59.record and ties, he might want to jazz up the kit a little. Whether

:58:00. > :58:04.that distraction is a good or bad thing! Are you calling for the First

:58:05. > :58:08.Minister Carwyn Jones? I don't know too much about football, more about

:58:09. > :58:15.rugby. I would have him as a rugby player. I have to say, I'd go with

:58:16. > :58:20.Peter Black. Carwyn Jones has actually been the leader and

:58:21. > :58:26.demonstrated he has got... We will have Peter Black. One thing, Jason,

:58:27. > :58:34.briefly, on a couple of these, perhaps on the subs bench. Thank you

:58:35. > :58:38.very much indeed. Bethan, I know you have got Nathan Gill waiting, maybe

:58:39. > :58:40.you wore to tell him that he has made the team and here's one of the

:58:41. > :58:49.defenders! -- you ought to tell him. Good morning. Just passing on a

:58:50. > :58:54.message, we have got a fantasy football team going on and you have

:58:55. > :58:57.been elected as a defender, congratulations on that one! That's

:58:58. > :59:03.very good, although talking about but Ball I'd say we were pretty much

:59:04. > :59:10.Leicester City of politics. We were written five years ago, and 50,000-1

:59:11. > :59:13.more like, the odds of us ever making it in politics, and here we

:59:14. > :59:19.are with the opinion polls showing that we are doing well. We are

:59:20. > :59:23.excited. You are Premier League now. Yes, I think so. If the polls are

:59:24. > :59:26.correct, you will have eight seats, a very good night for you. Is that

:59:27. > :59:30.what you are picking up from accounts, or is it far too early to

:59:31. > :59:37.have a need new intelligence? I think it is too early, -- genuine

:59:38. > :59:40.intelligence. As you can see behind us, they are desperately opening up

:59:41. > :59:47.boxes and going through the ballot papers. What we are hearing from all

:59:48. > :59:50.over Wales is that our vote has definitely held up, and in some

:59:51. > :59:54.areas we are actually doing better than we did last year in the general

:59:55. > :00:00.election, which is very exciting for us. As I alluded to, we have always

:00:01. > :00:04.been written off, we are always told, after the European elections

:00:05. > :00:08.will vote is going to fall off a cliff, you are irrelevant. The fact

:00:09. > :00:13.of the matter is, as we are showing here in Wales, we are very relevant.

:00:14. > :00:16.On the doorstep, did you get the feeling that, yes, you are picking

:00:17. > :00:20.votes from the right but also from the left. That is where you are

:00:21. > :00:24.really looking at, taking the Labour vote? Absolutely. We have been

:00:25. > :00:28.saying this for years, and I think Labour finally woke up to last year

:00:29. > :00:33.when they started attacking us and creating all of these proxy groups

:00:34. > :00:37.like hope not hate and what have you to try and scare people into not

:00:38. > :00:40.voting for us. The reality is that we do represent and speak for the

:00:41. > :00:46.working class men and women of this country. They that, they realise

:00:47. > :00:49.that we are the only ones who dares say what they are thinking, we are

:00:50. > :00:52.the only ones who actually speak for them, and we will do that in the

:00:53. > :00:57.Welsh Assembly and the Senedd, we promise that. Labour have nothing to

:00:58. > :01:00.get them. They have scare stories, and the hope that they will get

:01:01. > :01:03.people to vote for them because they always have done, but people are

:01:04. > :01:08.changing. This is the wonderful thing about British politics, what

:01:09. > :01:11.we have seen since Rob three or four years ago, people now have realised

:01:12. > :01:16.that they don't have to vote for the same old parties -- Rotherham. We

:01:17. > :01:20.are seeing it in Wales Today. Once again, for Ukip, Wales is the big

:01:21. > :01:24.story of the night. We are looking like we are doing much, much better

:01:25. > :01:27.than everywhere else in the United Kingdom. Who would have thought it?

:01:28. > :01:34.Who would have thought that in Wales Ukip would be so strong?

:01:35. > :01:41.We spoke earlier in the campaign and you described leading Ukip and Wales

:01:42. > :01:45.are herding cats. We have spoken to some of your cats tonight like Mark

:01:46. > :01:49.Reckless and Neil Hamilton, if you all get into the Assembly, will be

:01:50. > :01:53.difficult to keep control of people like that? The reality is we have

:01:54. > :02:00.some big personalities and we have, well, all of us, to be honest with

:02:01. > :02:04.you, a very emotive and we have very strong views and we have passion,

:02:05. > :02:07.real passion. That is going to come out, of course it is, and the focus

:02:08. > :02:12.we have got is that first of all we need to learn how to become AMs, we

:02:13. > :02:18.need to learn what it is all about. We are going from zero to five or

:02:19. > :02:22.six or even eight or more and we will find out later tonight and we

:02:23. > :02:25.have to get this group together and put everything into place where we

:02:26. > :02:31.are not starting from a running start, we are starting from zero so

:02:32. > :02:36.we have a lot of work on our hands and we will all pull together

:02:37. > :02:42.because we all want this to succeed. Thank you very much. Let us talk to

:02:43. > :02:49.another candidate now, former AM for Blaenau Gwent. This is Alun Davies.

:02:50. > :02:53.Good evening. We are hearing all sorts of things about what is going

:02:54. > :02:58.on in the south Wales valleys at the moment, tell us what you are

:02:59. > :03:03.hearing? Let me tell you this, we have a rock solid rule in Welsh

:03:04. > :03:08.politics -- politics and it is that in Blaenau Gwent we fight elections

:03:09. > :03:12.entirely differently to the rest of Wales and for the last few weeks

:03:13. > :03:15.here it has been more like a by-election and election on the

:03:16. > :03:18.campaign has been about local issues and the performance of the local

:03:19. > :03:24.authority here in Blaenau Gwent and the future of Wales. It has been a

:03:25. > :03:28.very local campaign in all sorts of ways so it is difficult therefore, I

:03:29. > :03:33.think, to take any wider lessons from what is happening here this

:03:34. > :03:37.evening, for the rest of Wales. Can you quash one rumour we are herring,

:03:38. > :03:41.that there is a potential recount, that is what we're hearing from

:03:42. > :03:47.Plaid Cymru sources. Can you quash that completely? It is a matter for

:03:48. > :03:55.Plaid Cymru if they wish to call a recount, I don't intend to. But it

:03:56. > :03:59.could be tight. At the moment we are going to start counting and before

:04:00. > :04:04.too long we will have a result but the important point is that we have

:04:05. > :04:07.had a good solid campaign here in Blaenau Gwent and I am absolutely

:04:08. > :04:10.confident that I will be going to the bay to take my oath in the

:04:11. > :04:16.morning and next week we will look towards re-electing Carwyn Jones as

:04:17. > :04:22.the First Minister for Wales at the head of a Labour government. You

:04:23. > :04:26.have been a minister since the very beginning and has come up that

:04:27. > :04:31.people wanted a change after 17 years of Labour and is your message

:04:32. > :04:35.getting a bit stale? This has been very local campaign with very

:04:36. > :04:38.limited lessons for the rest of Wales. It has been a campaign that

:04:39. > :04:44.has been fought almost entirely on issues that are of local importance,

:04:45. > :04:51.about anything from recycling to the future of the circuit for Wales and

:04:52. > :04:54.the duelling over local road. It has been a very local campaign and not

:04:55. > :05:00.the national campaign you might anticipate in this sort of election.

:05:01. > :05:05.Thank you very much. We might speak to you later in the programme. We

:05:06. > :05:12.will now go back to the Bay and speak in -- check-in with Carwyn

:05:13. > :05:16.Jones who is on his magic carpet. So, what can we expect for the main

:05:17. > :05:20.party in Wales, the largest party in Wales, Carwyn Jones's Labour Party.

:05:21. > :05:24.First of all we remind ourselves of how the election went for them five

:05:25. > :05:28.years ago in 2011. The open up the floor and you can see very clearly

:05:29. > :05:32.that they are by far the largest party with 30 Assembly members but

:05:33. > :05:36.not quite crushing the winning line that we have got here of 31 for an

:05:37. > :05:40.overall majority but you can see just how far ahead of the other

:05:41. > :05:45.parties they are. That is now history so we will look further back

:05:46. > :05:49.in terms of history to have a party is performed in these devolved

:05:50. > :05:55.elections and really 1999 was a disappointing night for the Labour

:05:56. > :06:00.Party who were really not too far in front of Plaid Cymru in terms of

:06:01. > :06:03.first place. That was after all the excitement of 1997 with the

:06:04. > :06:08.landslide victory for new Labour. The hope was better there. There is

:06:09. > :06:15.really an ebb and flow in terms of support for the Labour Party. Rick

:06:16. > :06:19.Gibson 2003 and then back up in 2007 and their best result was 2011 with

:06:20. > :06:25.42%, the highest amount they have had a devolved elections. We are

:06:26. > :06:29.looking at where they may be will pick up or take seats from the other

:06:30. > :06:35.parties and make games tonight on the constituency map here but really

:06:36. > :06:40.they are in for a difficult time. The only seat they could

:06:41. > :06:42.realistically take tonight is this one Carmarthen West and South

:06:43. > :06:46.Pembrokeshire. The Conservatives held it in 2011 but Labour were in

:06:47. > :06:50.second place in Plaid Cymru in third place not too far behind. Labour

:06:51. > :06:54.have a decent chance of taking it on the night, depending how the boat is

:06:55. > :06:57.going. The Conservatives would have a different idea. The big challenge

:06:58. > :07:04.the Labour is that they are under attack from every conceivable in --

:07:05. > :07:10.direction in the Assembly. Festival Llanelli, Labour held it in 2011 but

:07:11. > :07:15.Plaid Cymru has held it in the past and it has switched hands between

:07:16. > :07:18.Plaid Cymru and labour in each of the last four Assembly Election is

:07:19. > :07:22.so Plaid Cymru are attacking here. Now we go back to the capital, and

:07:23. > :07:28.Cardiff North. Here the Conservatives are the main

:07:29. > :07:32.challenger. They are hoping to turn back to Tory blue because they have

:07:33. > :07:35.the MP at Westminster and that is where the attack is coming from the

:07:36. > :07:39.Conservatives against Labour. Go further south and you have Cardiff

:07:40. > :07:43.Central, the most marginal seat in Wales with 38 votes in it between

:07:44. > :07:47.Labour and the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems are hopeful here and that is

:07:48. > :07:50.three constituencies where they are under attack from different parties

:07:51. > :07:55.but let us remember the general election last year for the UK

:07:56. > :07:59.Parliament in Westminster, Gower and also the Vale of Clwyd fell from

:08:00. > :08:03.Labour to the Conservatives so they will be mindful there that they have

:08:04. > :08:06.to defend what they have already got there. That is the constituencies

:08:07. > :08:11.where they are having to defend their majorities and their seats

:08:12. > :08:16.that but I also mentioned earlier on this massive region in mid and West

:08:17. > :08:20.Wales, the regional seat which has four AMs and two of them are Labour

:08:21. > :08:25.and because of the way that the system of electing regional Assembly

:08:26. > :08:29.members works the rise of Ukip, especially here in mid and West

:08:30. > :08:32.Wales means that one of these regional seats for Labour could be

:08:33. > :08:38.under threat. They are vulnerable to the rise of Ukip. There you have it.

:08:39. > :08:42.In terms of Assembly each conceivable line of attack against

:08:43. > :08:45.Labour means it could well be a difficult night for Carwyn Jones and

:08:46. > :08:51.his party. Thank you very much. We mentioned

:08:52. > :08:56.Cardiff North there. Let me show you this quote Justin from the Labour

:08:57. > :08:58.candidate there, Julie Morgan who has represented that patch as an MP

:08:59. > :09:18.and an AM for many years. That has come from Julie Morgan

:09:19. > :09:22.tonight. Can we say therefore that that is looking bleak for Labour

:09:23. > :09:24.there? I think it is the most definitive kind of statement over

:09:25. > :09:28.the last few hours with all the talk but we have had nobody can really

:09:29. > :09:32.say, that is probably the strongest that we have had because it came

:09:33. > :09:37.from Julie Morgan herself and it is pretty close to saying that she does

:09:38. > :09:42.not think she has one and Cardiff North is a target seat for the

:09:43. > :09:45.Conservatives and it was taken pretty comfortably in the general

:09:46. > :09:49.election and the key point that the Tories, and Alun Cairns touched on

:09:50. > :09:52.it when you are speaking to the Welsh Secretary, is the extent to

:09:53. > :09:57.which they can hold onto those traditional Tory voters, who

:09:58. > :10:00.supported them in places like Cardiff North, but traditionally

:10:01. > :10:05.have been reluctant to vote in Assembly elections and have been

:10:06. > :10:11.largely disengaged with devolved politics. That is the key question

:10:12. > :10:14.for the Tories tonight. Laura, if Cardiff North has gone, what can we

:10:15. > :10:20.read into the swing across Wales because that was the most marginal

:10:21. > :10:23.one? It is significant, but it might not be that significant, is the

:10:24. > :10:27.answer. As we said right at the beginning is what we are seeing in

:10:28. > :10:31.all of those ten or 12 seats that are contestable is very localised

:10:32. > :10:35.campaigns and I think Cardiff North in particular has got a really good

:10:36. > :10:47.setup, really good organisation, they knew exactly where their

:10:48. > :10:49.voters, the Conservatives, and it looks as though they have got their

:10:50. > :10:52.vote out, regardless of what the turnout is. That will be different

:10:53. > :10:54.in other seats, particular north-east in the seats were Carwyn

:10:55. > :11:00.referred to them recently as being a conservative target. If the

:11:01. > :11:07.Conservatives take Cardiff North and Andrew RT Davies is out in the Vale

:11:08. > :11:10.of Glamorgan? Yes, it is just a few hundred seats and it seemed a

:11:11. > :11:15.strange decision not to contest seats like the Vale of Glamorgan,

:11:16. > :11:20.not just for profile but because it was potentially winnable for the

:11:21. > :11:24.Conservative leader. This voting system, it is bizarre. When you go

:11:25. > :11:27.and vote and you get all of these papers today, especially on top of

:11:28. > :11:33.the Police and Crime Commissioners as well, to what extent do you think

:11:34. > :11:38.that people understand it? I don't think they do, I have no doubt about

:11:39. > :11:41.that, I have spoken to a lot of people myself, very intelligent and

:11:42. > :11:44.professional people who are unsure in the way in which they ought to

:11:45. > :11:49.vote and different kind of tactics one can use to get the outcome one

:11:50. > :11:54.determines. Make no mistake, if you look back to why the system was

:11:55. > :11:57.devised in the first place, it was a compromise and everyone acknowledged

:11:58. > :12:01.as a compromise but it was also designed to help the largest party,

:12:02. > :12:04.in this case Labour so it is actually really difficult for Labour

:12:05. > :12:08.to lose in this electoral system and that could be a saviour tonight. It

:12:09. > :12:12.will see a big decrease in vogue but actually only a handful of seats

:12:13. > :12:15.down. If we are talking about a recount in some parts of the

:12:16. > :12:20.valleys, where you operate a loss, that would be fascinating. It is

:12:21. > :12:24.really interesting and that sort of pressure on Labour from different

:12:25. > :12:28.sides, it was quite interesting last week, I was in Ebbw Vale with Mark

:12:29. > :12:31.Reckless and we were in the market talking and walking around and I was

:12:32. > :12:35.interested in seeing how people interacted with Amanda Minor came

:12:36. > :12:41.along who I knew from a long time ago and he started talking to Mark

:12:42. > :12:44.Reckless about what a socialist it wasn't as strong a socialist he was

:12:45. > :12:47.and he was going to vote Ukip, which is very much reflecting what Nathan

:12:48. > :12:52.Gill was just saying. I think we are going to see some interesting moves

:12:53. > :12:56.and in some of those valleys communities where perhaps they

:12:57. > :13:01.haven't felt that Labour has been in recent years the Labour Party they

:13:02. > :13:05.knew, Ukip is clearly quite attractive and often on economic

:13:06. > :13:09.issues, often it is about wages and people are frustrated with low pay

:13:10. > :13:14.and zero-hours contract and not feeling that they are being looked

:13:15. > :13:19.after and so they go to a new party they haven't tried before. One

:13:20. > :13:23.charge often levelled at the Labour government and the Labour Party in

:13:24. > :13:30.particular during the campaign is the complacency. Is that a fair

:13:31. > :13:33.charge now, or did they step it up? Was the manifesto complacent? If

:13:34. > :13:36.anything it in the manifesto was but I don't think they determine

:13:37. > :13:40.election results in all honesty. The seat like Cardiff North, if what we

:13:41. > :13:44.being led to believe is the case is a really good case in point.

:13:45. > :13:47.Although it is often quoted that seats like that have huge

:13:48. > :13:51.concentrations of public sector workers, they are public sector

:13:52. > :13:55.workers who are in middle management and above, they are people who

:13:56. > :13:58.actually a decent salaries and aspirational and optimistic about

:13:59. > :14:02.the future and so on and that is where I think that narrative of time

:14:03. > :14:07.for a change, we allowed the same party in power for 17 years really

:14:08. > :14:11.hits home. If the result goes the way we expect it to now then that

:14:12. > :14:14.would be a reflection of the narrative that the Conservatives

:14:15. > :14:19.have put forward actually working. It was always quite a powerful

:14:20. > :14:22.narrative potentially, and the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have

:14:23. > :14:27.sort of mirrored each other in the opening gambit some air attacks on

:14:28. > :14:31.Labour, 17 years in power, time for a change is a very powerful message

:14:32. > :14:36.to go to the electorate if you can make it work. Obviously it is then

:14:37. > :14:40.all about the follow-up messages. Carwyn Jones would always say it is

:14:41. > :14:43.not good enough and it is not a game of pass the parcel and you don't

:14:44. > :14:47.just take your turn to govern in Wales, you have got to earn the

:14:48. > :14:52.right to govern in Wales and that is really where a lot of the arguments

:14:53. > :14:56.came to, but wasn't it fascinating listening to Alun Davies talking

:14:57. > :14:59.about the performance of the local authority and the circuit of Wales,

:15:00. > :15:06.this is something I know you have spoken a lot about, Laura, these 40

:15:07. > :15:09.separate battles going on and maybe they don't have that much in common

:15:10. > :15:14.with each other. Yes, we are hearing that Clwyd South is too close to

:15:15. > :15:18.comfort for according to one Labour source. We are still waiting for the

:15:19. > :15:22.first result which could be in an hour or more from Wales but we are

:15:23. > :15:24.getting some in from Scotland and we will bring them to you as we get

:15:25. > :15:34.them. Let us go back to the sofas. Let's talk about the Scottish

:15:35. > :15:40.results, good news for the Liberal Democrats, I know you will be dying

:15:41. > :15:44.to talk about it. You held the Orkney Islands, and although Labour

:15:45. > :15:50.lost Rutherglen to the SNP, the Labour vote was up there. It was a

:15:51. > :15:57.big swing to us in the Orkneys. We were very low last year, went down

:15:58. > :16:03.very low. Returning is going to take hard work and time, but we are

:16:04. > :16:09.hoping to see modest improvements in some of our seats this time around.

:16:10. > :16:13.And in local council elections, too. But of course, the situation last

:16:14. > :16:20.year was very much worse than it was in 2011. That is when those seats

:16:21. > :16:24.will last for. It is going to be very difficult for us to see a clear

:16:25. > :16:30.picture. What about dropping below three seats in the Assembly? If you

:16:31. > :16:32.drop below that threshold, it removes all sort of support,

:16:33. > :16:38.infrastructure and resources available to groups and parties

:16:39. > :16:43.designated as formal groups, if you like. Is that an existential threat

:16:44. > :16:48.to the Liberal Democrats, having that sort of scaffolding pulled out

:16:49. > :16:55.through an do you? I wouldn't put it as dramatically as that. Of course

:16:56. > :17:02.it matters. It will be an additional problem for us to overcome. But it

:17:03. > :17:05.looks very much as if Kirsty Williams is going to be elected in

:17:06. > :17:15.due course in Brecon and Radnorshire. We do have our key

:17:16. > :17:20.leader figure there, all we will have that. And I think that's really

:17:21. > :17:24.important. Because Kirsty has huge respect within the party, huge

:17:25. > :17:28.loyalty within the party, and generally I think the media and the

:17:29. > :17:35.public regard her as having had a very good campaign and been an

:17:36. > :17:38.excellent leader. Thank you. In terms of good news, Craig Williams,

:17:39. > :17:42.there appears to be good news in the constituency for which you are an

:17:43. > :17:47.MP, Cardiff North, for the Conservatives, in that Julie Morgan

:17:48. > :17:52.has said she is not confident about that seat. What sort of intelligence

:17:53. > :17:59.have you been getting? I think you would get exactly the same is David,

:18:00. > :18:04.this has been a great seat. When you talk about engagement, Cardiff North

:18:05. > :18:08.has stood out. Both Julie and Jane are great candidates and great

:18:09. > :18:11.representatives. It has been a classic battle, and whoever wins the

:18:12. > :18:16.night they can both look each other in the eye and said that they did

:18:17. > :18:21.their best and had a positive campaign. Implications for your

:18:22. > :18:31.leader on the list? We were here last time. You are talking about,

:18:32. > :18:37.you know, such small numbers that influence this. Given we have had no

:18:38. > :18:42.constituency results, this is pie in the sky staff. You could imagine the

:18:43. > :18:47.scenario where Andrew was a victim of his own success. But let's wait

:18:48. > :18:52.for Cardiff North, the veil, and then on the edge of our seats for

:18:53. > :18:57.what will be a regional count that we can have hundreds of votes either

:18:58. > :19:02.way. Not just you, the Greens as well would be interested. There are

:19:03. > :19:06.more people that win in the constituencies, the more chance we

:19:07. > :19:13.have on the list -- the more people that win. If Leanne did have a

:19:14. > :19:18.chance in the Rhondda, and the Vale and Cardiff North, we have got a

:19:19. > :19:22.strong chance. Just reflect for a moment on the Scottish results.

:19:23. > :19:26.Obviously, nothing substantial for the Greens in two results thus far,

:19:27. > :19:31.but there is a lot of optimism from the Greens in Scotland. Yes,

:19:32. > :19:36.definitely. In Scotland they run the campaign in a different way. They

:19:37. > :19:40.ran in a few constituencies but they prioritised the list. They knew that

:19:41. > :19:44.was where they were going to get votes. We have always had Greens in

:19:45. > :19:49.the Scottish parliament. This time the polls are saying nine, we have

:19:50. > :19:55.currently got two. A really exciting time for us, showing the success of

:19:56. > :20:01.that post referendum atmosphere that is in Scotland, of wanting a change

:20:02. > :20:05.and a fresh new look at politics. In terms of Ukip, let's reflect a

:20:06. > :20:09.little, Jim Carver, on what your leader had to say, Nathan Gill, when

:20:10. > :20:15.he spoke to us a short time ago. First of all on the behaviour of the

:20:16. > :20:19.new party in the Assembly. You are an unknown quantity obviously

:20:20. > :20:23.because you haven't had any AMs in there before. And secondly, the

:20:24. > :20:27.campaign hasn't been particularly unified around Nathan Gill. Do you

:20:28. > :20:32.think he is going to find it a challenge to have his AMs coalesce

:20:33. > :20:36.around him? No, I don't, I think that is the strength of the ticket.

:20:37. > :20:40.We have got Neil Hamilton, former Cabinet minister, Mark Reckless,

:20:41. > :20:44.very well respected member of Parliament when he was there. And

:20:45. > :20:48.the work Nathan Haas done, he has done a great job as an MEP for

:20:49. > :20:55.Wales, he is a well-respected. On the doorstep, and in the media as

:20:56. > :20:59.well. We had Neil Hamilton on. He was prompted several times before

:21:00. > :21:03.you finally gave a lukewarm endorsement. I saw that interview, I

:21:04. > :21:10.think there were problems, there were problems with regards to it. It

:21:11. > :21:15.was very clear to me and he actually indicated his support for maven. It

:21:16. > :21:19.is interesting, you know. -- for Nathan. We are just about to win

:21:20. > :21:24.seats and already people are trying to dissect us and take us apart.

:21:25. > :21:28.That is surely a success, we are challenging the establishment. Now

:21:29. > :21:32.you are part of the establishment. Once you are in there, you can't

:21:33. > :21:39.play that card and it will. It will I am an MEP, I represent by regions.

:21:40. > :21:43.-- you can't play that card any more. It is about a different brand

:21:44. > :21:48.of politics. We have clearly influenced, with the spec to the

:21:49. > :21:58.media, you haven't infused people. -- with respect. In Scotland, we

:21:59. > :22:02.have got Greens and the SNP, in Scotland, the Scottish Greens have

:22:03. > :22:08.managed to carve out a separate nature. You haven't been able to do

:22:09. > :22:14.that in Wales. That gives us extra emphasis where we are. We are the

:22:15. > :22:20.stand-up party. Let's look at Ukip and Labour, Wayne David, Labour MP

:22:21. > :22:24.for Caerphilly. Ukip made a strong showing last year at the general

:22:25. > :22:28.election. Because Ukip didn't feel in any constituency is five years

:22:29. > :22:33.ago, we can't really use that benchmark at all will didn't field

:22:34. > :22:37.in any constituencies. Is Labour struggling to get to grips with the

:22:38. > :22:45.Ukip threat? Ukip mean everything to everybody. They are saying they are

:22:46. > :22:51.the socialist alternative to Labour, but then bring in right-wing Tories.

:22:52. > :22:54.It is a contradiction in terms. When they are elected to the Assembly,

:22:55. > :23:00.they will be in absolute shambles. They will be buried in a few years.

:23:01. > :23:06.We will see! You are speaking to one of the most left-wing ex-members of

:23:07. > :23:12.the European Parliament in Ukip. How did you get on the Mark Reckless?

:23:13. > :23:20.He's a right winger. He is very middle-of-the-road. He is not, he is

:23:21. > :23:23.a right-winger. That is the greatest thing about our party. We have so

:23:24. > :23:30.many different people coming from different perspectives. Europe is

:23:31. > :23:35.your main issue. Come the referendum, your fox is shot on

:23:36. > :23:43.that, surely. Excuse my mixing metaphors. What are you after that?

:23:44. > :23:48.We are the new Libertarian party, I stood in 2005. I was campaigning

:23:49. > :23:53.very much. We always contest elections on that format. We have

:23:54. > :23:58.never been a single issue party. If we are talking about, you know,

:23:59. > :24:04.national elections within the UK, La at what has happened to be SNP --

:24:05. > :24:12.look at what's happened in the SNP. We are going to have to go back to

:24:13. > :24:17.bed very shortly. -- back to Beth Allen. Jim Carver making the

:24:18. > :24:21.comparison with Scotland, the SNP has won another seat from Labour. It

:24:22. > :24:24.must be pretty painful to look at the success of your nationalist

:24:25. > :24:28.cousins over there and then see the set of results that Plaid has been

:24:29. > :24:33.coming out with? It is inspiring in Scotland, but it is a different

:24:34. > :24:37.culture country, culture and politics. Our time will come. We are

:24:38. > :24:43.different in terms of what we are offering here. What the SNP have

:24:44. > :24:47.shown in Scotland and what can happen, and I hope Plaid will look

:24:48. > :24:50.at that in the next couple of days in terms of what can happen with

:24:51. > :24:54.working with other parties to make sure that if we do have that

:24:55. > :24:59.opportunity to work with Labour, having the rest after 17 years and a

:25:00. > :25:03.period of opposition. Surely you are ruling out doing any deals with the

:25:04. > :25:07.Tories, it effectively guarantees Labour another five years of

:25:08. > :25:12.government in some form or other. Not necessarily. We are going out to

:25:13. > :25:16.win the election, but they are the models of cooperation and working

:25:17. > :25:20.together. I would be looking forward to seeing what happens in the early

:25:21. > :25:25.hours of tomorrow. Who could it possibly be if it is not Labour. You

:25:26. > :25:28.have ruled out the Conservatives. I assume that automatically means you

:25:29. > :25:34.are ruling out Ukip, unless you are going to Tommy otherwise? Not at

:25:35. > :25:38.all! -- going to tell me otherwise. We are obsessed with coalitions

:25:39. > :25:42.because we have had some in Wales and one in Westminster. If you look

:25:43. > :25:47.at countries across the world was a models of government in terms of

:25:48. > :25:50.parties coming together, a lot of other models, there are gnome rules,

:25:51. > :25:55.we can make it up in terms of what is right for Wales -- there are no

:25:56. > :25:58.rules. Clearly there are going to be a number of seats from Labour. All

:25:59. > :26:03.parties need to take that seriously about what it means for the next

:26:04. > :26:10.government. Thank you all. Bethan, back to you. Thank you, Fliss. We

:26:11. > :26:19.can talk to Kirsty Williams who is in Brecon and run the show. --

:26:20. > :26:30.Brecon and render show. Can you hear me, Kirsty Williams? Good morning.

:26:31. > :26:35.How looking for you? Well, after the disappointing result in reckon and

:26:36. > :26:41.Radnorshire just 12 months ago, I knew that we had a very tough battle

:26:42. > :26:46.-- Brecon and Radnor shot. We have worked hard here in Brecon and Brad

:26:47. > :26:54.and. The campaign has gone well. The votes are still being counted, and

:26:55. > :26:56.we have to wait and see. You don't sound too optimistic. Do you

:26:57. > :27:04.genuinely not know yet? You don't seem too keen on the result? I don't

:27:05. > :27:08.like to make any predictions until the declaration is actually made.

:27:09. > :27:14.What we do know is that, you know, we have had a tough battle. The

:27:15. > :27:18.campaign has gone very well. I have been heartened by the warm welcome

:27:19. > :27:21.that we have received on the doorsteps the length and breadth of

:27:22. > :27:26.the largest considering see in Wales. As I said, let's might just

:27:27. > :27:30.wait to let these people do their job. They are counting as fast as

:27:31. > :27:38.they can. Let's have a proper declaration. You have been an

:27:39. > :27:41.Assembly Members as 1902 nine. Why do you think you are facing such a

:27:42. > :27:44.tough time as a party now, and potentially facing a wipe-out? Are

:27:45. > :27:51.you still paying the price for the coalition in Westminster? I think

:27:52. > :27:55.undoubtedly the effects of the coalition asked being felt by the

:27:56. > :27:59.party. 12 months ago we had a devastating election result here in

:28:00. > :28:04.Wales and across the UK. It was always going to be very difficult to

:28:05. > :28:08.rebuild the party, and its support, and in just the 12 months that we

:28:09. > :28:12.had before the election to the National Assembly for Wales. We know

:28:13. > :28:16.that there is a place for liberal politics in Wales and in the UK. But

:28:17. > :28:22.that is going to take time. We are going to have to do that ward by

:28:23. > :28:28.Ward, seat by seat. I am hopeful that Brecon and Radnorshire can be

:28:29. > :28:32.the first part of that tonight. But, you know, it is going to be a long

:28:33. > :28:38.journey to recover from what happened in the party 12 months ago.

:28:39. > :28:45.And if you were a betting lady, do you think you will be an AM in the

:28:46. > :28:50.morning? I very much hope to be, Beth Allen. Kirsty Williams, we will

:28:51. > :28:56.have a chat in the morning. Thank you very much for joining us. Nick,

:28:57. > :29:01.what do you make of that? Well, she didn't sound very confident, did

:29:02. > :29:03.she? You have got to look at the figures. You know, the