Assembly Election Part 2

:00:00. > :00:00.facing a tough job. I think that interview reflects that. Thank you,

:00:00. > :00:11.Nick. We will go straight to Jason, who was on the sofas in the Spin

:00:12. > :00:14.Room. Thank you, Beth Allen. We have done health and education and the

:00:15. > :00:17.economy. And we have done a general overview of the Assembly election

:00:18. > :00:20.campaign. Now we are going to dive into the European Union with three

:00:21. > :00:27.young people who have got very strong views on the EU. Very good

:00:28. > :00:34.evening to Ali Al Hassan, who is an undecided voter. You are studying...

:00:35. > :00:39.Dentistry at Cardiff University. Katherine wants to stay in the

:00:40. > :00:43.university. What are you doing in Cardiff? I'm studying politics, I

:00:44. > :00:47.should be good on this! At Cardiff University. You should know your

:00:48. > :00:53.stuff. You are still in school? I am six format Monmouth comprehensive

:00:54. > :00:59.School. You are very much in favour of leaving the European Union. Why?

:01:00. > :01:03.For me, the argument is democracy and sovereignty. Democracy in this

:01:04. > :01:08.country has been 900 years in the making, I don't want to see it

:01:09. > :01:17.thrown away. This vote is important. We can govern ourselves. Katherine?

:01:18. > :01:22.Democracy and sovereignty is very important that ultimately the

:01:23. > :01:27.European Union is a democracy and we vote for our MEPs and I know you

:01:28. > :01:34.will laugh and what you will see, but we have democratic institutions

:01:35. > :01:39.ourselves, we have an unelected second state -- chamber and head of

:01:40. > :01:40.state. I don't think we should write off the EU

:01:41. > :02:01.because it has issues as its democracy. Our elected branch has

:02:02. > :02:05.power. It is not a democracy. It is crushing the individual further and

:02:06. > :02:15.further all the time. You need to look at EU regulation which came out

:02:16. > :02:18.today. They are 95% more likely to help people quit smoking but they

:02:19. > :02:22.want to take away the individual liberty because they are a

:02:23. > :02:27.centralised oligarch and we elect our government here and in the EU

:02:28. > :02:34.you have no chance of doing that because they are all unelected. Why

:02:35. > :02:37.have you not made your mind up yet? It is not even a case of that,

:02:38. > :02:41.initially when the whole debate started coming around I thought I

:02:42. > :02:45.was going to leave for a lot of the reasons that Nathan has said but

:02:46. > :02:48.then I switched to staying in one I had a lot of the counterarguments

:02:49. > :02:52.and it is such a polarised debate and I feel like every point you can

:02:53. > :02:55.make on one side there is a counterpoint on the other side,

:02:56. > :02:59.whether you are talking about money you are giving getting back and I

:03:00. > :03:05.just feel that it is ultimately such a big unknown that the EU and all

:03:06. > :03:07.the issues affecting it so widespread that it is hard to

:03:08. > :03:14.comprehend all the same time and an informed decision. That is the case

:03:15. > :03:17.for me anyway. I was listening to something on the radio yesterday

:03:18. > :03:21.where some of the people interviewed in a market where saying that they

:03:22. > :03:25.are frustrated unbelievably by the fact that whenever there is a debate

:03:26. > :03:29.on the radio the television it is pretty much like these to just

:03:30. > :03:33.demonstrated on one side says one thing and another side says the

:03:34. > :03:37.other and that is politics but within that we're losing the

:03:38. > :03:40.messages and do you think that the in and out campaigns both need to be

:03:41. > :03:46.clearer with their objectives and goals? Definitely and ultimately I

:03:47. > :03:50.think most people on the ground are just going to look at their

:03:51. > :03:54.livelihood and their situations and then vote according to whatever they

:03:55. > :04:02.think is best on a personal level, rather than looking at the more big

:04:03. > :04:06.and national issues so if people are against immigration, for example and

:04:07. > :04:10.free movement within the EU, they might think that we need a change

:04:11. > :04:17.and we need to move out and England can have a more inclusive sort of

:04:18. > :04:20.immigration policy for everyone but then at the same time what will

:04:21. > :04:26.happen with the human rights Bill? What will happen if we trust the

:04:27. > :04:31.Conservatives to rewrite what we are going to do in regards to that?

:04:32. > :04:35.There are so many unknowns that in itself might be a reason to stay in

:04:36. > :04:43.because we would want to stay right now. Nathan, I know you have made

:04:44. > :04:46.some very strong points and you are in Monmouth and you have made a very

:04:47. > :04:50.strong point about why you should leave the EU but not too far away

:04:51. > :04:55.from where you live there are areas of Wales which are some of the most

:04:56. > :05:01.provide -- deprived areas of Wales which have benefited from the

:05:02. > :05:05.European Union money. There was a ?12 billion net loss and every piece

:05:06. > :05:09.of money we get back is UK taxpayer money, it is not European Union

:05:10. > :05:12.money. The government has said it will maintain the level of

:05:13. > :05:16.investment put into Wales whether we stay in the European Union or not

:05:17. > :05:19.and the point of the matter as there is no net benefit in terms of money

:05:20. > :05:25.we get back from the European Union to Wales and Wales in particular has

:05:26. > :05:31.a real fallacy about this. We talk about Wales and help the union of --

:05:32. > :05:37.the European Union gives. Who says about the fallacy? You have to look

:05:38. > :05:42.at the facts where there is a ?12 billion net loss. Think about places

:05:43. > :05:45.like the Rhondda and the places that have the European subsidies, are

:05:46. > :05:48.they better off as a result of the European Union? We don't know, it is

:05:49. > :05:54.inconclusive but it doesn't look like it. At the same time you said

:05:55. > :05:59.you don't know and you could also say that Europe provides our big

:06:00. > :06:03.trading block so when you look at countries like Sweden, how long will

:06:04. > :06:08.it take out how much effort will it be to negotiate our own trade deals

:06:09. > :06:13.with whoever and who will come out on top and it is a bit of an

:06:14. > :06:17.unknown. Do you think ultimately the vote will come down to money, it

:06:18. > :06:20.will come down to that argument and whether people ultimately will go

:06:21. > :06:24.with what Nathan is saying, that we don't get the money back or pretty

:06:25. > :06:28.much like Catherine is saying, that it is well worth every penny we put

:06:29. > :06:32.into it in terms of trade and security? I think money is paid but

:06:33. > :06:36.possibly an even bigger issue is people just saying either we need to

:06:37. > :06:41.change and we want something different, whether it be jumping out

:06:42. > :06:45.of the pond into something and possibly not even knowing if it will

:06:46. > :06:50.be a good result or a bad result or just saying, let's stick with what

:06:51. > :06:54.we have and honestly a lot of people I know who want to leave just say

:06:55. > :07:01.they want change and want to try something different so that could be

:07:02. > :07:06.something. Catherine, do you think the intervention of President Obama

:07:07. > :07:12.was influential in terms of security and prosperity from an economic

:07:13. > :07:17.trade point of view? Obviously there are two minds as to who should be

:07:18. > :07:20.involved because it is a purely British debate but if we leave or

:07:21. > :07:24.not it will affect our relations with other countries and we need to

:07:25. > :07:26.know how that could affect us in the future and yes President Barack

:07:27. > :07:31.Obama will not be in power but we need to know how it looks from an

:07:32. > :07:34.outsider 's point of view because if it will affect us with other

:07:35. > :07:36.countries and that will affect trade and that will affect other alliances

:07:37. > :08:01.then we need to know that we need to make an informed decision

:08:02. > :08:04.based on what we want and also how that will affect our relationships

:08:05. > :08:06.because otherwise it is not a fully formed union needs to be an open

:08:07. > :08:10.debate and we need the views from the people and I find it interesting

:08:11. > :08:12.that as far as I am aware the only two individuals that have come out

:08:13. > :08:14.on the world stage and said that they think we should leave well

:08:15. > :08:17.Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump? Does that change your mind? While I

:08:18. > :08:20.was going to say that Donald Trump was Barack Brett King Brexit which

:08:21. > :08:22.leads me of way but I am on the fence right now. I am incredibly

:08:23. > :08:25.thankful for Obama coming here because he has created an effect

:08:26. > :08:31.where the polls now favour leave rather than in and that has been put

:08:32. > :08:34.down to him coming here and telling us what to do and I totally agree

:08:35. > :08:37.that it is his right as an individual and the leader of the

:08:38. > :08:40.biggest country in the world in terms of economically to come over

:08:41. > :08:49.here and say that but what he is saying isn't true, it is simply not

:08:50. > :08:54.true. You don't know that. Why would America do that? It hasn't got a

:08:55. > :08:59.trade to deal with the EU. We have the former First Minister Rhodri

:09:00. > :09:07.Morgan waiting to talk to Bethan. We have this football team and we want

:09:08. > :09:10.midfielders. Who have you got here? Lord Ellis Thomas and I don't want

:09:11. > :09:13.to back as a midfielder because he is a fan of the European Union and

:09:14. > :09:19.in midfield unit need to know when to abandon a bad practice, went to

:09:20. > :09:30.abandon... He is not giving up, is he? Who have you got? I have parrot

:09:31. > :09:34.from the Lib Dems. I've had a think about this and I feel that her and

:09:35. > :09:38.her party tend to disappear in the big games so possibly might be

:09:39. > :09:46.looking for someone else to come on midfield. Who have you got? I have

:09:47. > :09:50.Jenny Rathbone who is my current AM and she is quite good and she has

:09:51. > :09:58.done a lot for our constituents I think she would be quite good. Tough

:09:59. > :10:06.tackling. I would say so. We need to choose to. My vote goes for these

:10:07. > :10:10.two. Rhodri Morgan is waiting for us. He

:10:11. > :10:17.is the former First Minister. Good morning. What are you hearing,

:10:18. > :10:20.especially about a seat where you have been campaigning very hard

:10:21. > :10:28.alongside your wife in Cardiff North, it is not looking good we are

:10:29. > :10:31.hearing. Too early to say, they have not started counting yet and they

:10:32. > :10:37.are still doing the verification and we are looking at the verification.

:10:38. > :10:41.You get the impression of how sharply divided the constituency is

:10:42. > :10:43.between the act of areas who seem to be voting heavily for the

:10:44. > :10:47.conservative than the less prosperous areas which are voting

:10:48. > :10:51.equally heavily for Labour but the advantage the Conservatives might

:10:52. > :10:54.have is that they will get a higher turnout because always seem to get a

:10:55. > :10:59.higher turnout in the more prosperous areas at that sort of

:11:00. > :11:08.springs it but then it depends on the niggling areas but I have action

:11:09. > :11:12.at seen much of the little bits of impression that you get of the boxes

:11:13. > :11:18.coming in from those meddling areas that perhaps might determine it. We

:11:19. > :11:21.had a quote from Julie Morgan earlier who said she wasn't

:11:22. > :11:26.confident and on the bigger picture... But she has never

:11:27. > :11:30.confident! When she is winning she is not confident when she is losing

:11:31. > :11:39.she not confident. So she is cautious. She is! Looking at the

:11:40. > :11:44.bigger picture, what sort of night is Labour having right across Wales?

:11:45. > :11:48.I don't even know how well it is going in Cardiff let alone the rest

:11:49. > :11:57.of Wales. That is a question that is going miles over Matt Ed, it is

:11:58. > :12:02.impossible to know I have received no messages at all. Let us play a

:12:03. > :12:07.guessing game then. You have been First Minister and had a coalition,

:12:08. > :12:14.at what point, lets hypothesise again, that Labour ends up with 27

:12:15. > :12:21.or 28, where from your experiences of threshold where you just cannot

:12:22. > :12:26.go it alone and you need a partner? Well, you use the word coalition of

:12:27. > :12:33.course if Labour got 30, as I did in 2003, then you don't need a

:12:34. > :12:36.coalition but when we had 28, halfway through that first Assembly

:12:37. > :12:40.I decided that a coalition arrangement with the Lib Dems was on

:12:41. > :12:46.offer and we took the offer and then we had 27 in 2007 and it took a long

:12:47. > :12:50.time, two months of negotiating and in the end we went for a coalition

:12:51. > :12:55.with Plaid Cymru but that could have been preceded by the rainbow

:12:56. > :12:58.coalition or the anybody but Labour coalition and we didn't know if that

:12:59. > :13:01.was going to happen for the best part of those two months so anything

:13:02. > :13:06.can happen if you don't have that control of the Assembly by having 30

:13:07. > :13:13.as your bare majority, but even if you are a bit short of the bare

:13:14. > :13:19.majority you can still do deals, money and supply or confidence and

:13:20. > :13:23.supply deals. New Zealand really, and Helen Clark, whipped up the

:13:24. > :13:28.Westminster rule book and devised all sorts of different methods of

:13:29. > :13:32.surviving with a PR system of voting very similar to we have and it makes

:13:33. > :13:36.it very difficult to win a majority and she survived three terms I think

:13:37. > :13:42.in New Zealand but by ripping up the rule book and just saying that they

:13:43. > :13:45.do it differently because they have proportional representation and you

:13:46. > :13:52.have to adjust for that for their rise more than one way of skinning a

:13:53. > :13:55.cat. We are told that Carwyn Jones has told sky that he accepts he will

:13:56. > :13:59.have to go into a coalition that you were saying maybe not a formal deal

:14:00. > :14:06.that he should look at other options before considering a marriage, if

:14:07. > :14:10.you like? Well, the question is what other parties think of coalitions

:14:11. > :14:16.and whether other parties would sometimes prefer something looser,

:14:17. > :14:19.that does not involve them taking up ministerial office but does involve

:14:20. > :14:28.them getting concessions on certain key policies for them, in return for

:14:29. > :14:31.guaranteeing they will support Labour and a confidence motion all

:14:32. > :14:37.on the Budget annually, so that is the other way of doing it and there

:14:38. > :14:41.are other ways as well. If you look at the New Zealand rule book instead

:14:42. > :14:45.of the Westminster rule book. Would it be a phone call to Plaid Cymru

:14:46. > :14:52.straightaway if you were still in charge? I have absolutely no idea,

:14:53. > :14:56.because we don't know how... The Liberal Democrats vote has collapsed

:14:57. > :14:59.in some constituencies but they may be doing well in others. How many

:15:00. > :15:05.Liberal Democrats will there be? Does that leave any alternatives to

:15:06. > :15:10.Plaid Cymru? We don't know, we have no idea what the shape of the new

:15:11. > :15:17.Assembly will be. Thank you very much. Let us talk to Adam Price in

:15:18. > :15:23.Llanelli, and the candidacy is still waiting to hear. Good morning, how

:15:24. > :15:29.was it going? We have had a terrific campaign here

:15:30. > :15:32.in Carmarthenshire and we expect to have a positive result, not just

:15:33. > :15:38.here but for Plaid Cymru across Wales today.

:15:39. > :15:41.We are just hearing that the line from sky that Carwyn Jones will say

:15:42. > :15:49.he was considering a coalition is wrong, and is being corrected. There

:15:50. > :15:56.we go. Adam Price, yes, if, indeed, Labour were to turn out and pick up

:15:57. > :16:00.the phone and ask Plaid Cymru for some help, would you be interested

:16:01. > :16:03.in some sort of deal? We haven't got the votes of the seats yet but is it

:16:04. > :16:08.something you would personally be happy with?

:16:09. > :16:15.I know we are in that weird sort of intermittent periods jarring

:16:16. > :16:21.election night, we haven't had a single result in. We are playing

:16:22. > :16:24.fantasy politics at the moment. Let's not get two steps ahead and

:16:25. > :16:29.play fantasy politics about the future shape of the Government of

:16:30. > :16:36.Wales. We made our position very clear during the campaign, narrative

:16:37. > :16:40.was crystal clear that Wales needs change, that requires change in the

:16:41. > :16:43.leadership of the government. Certainly I think we have been

:16:44. > :16:47.strengthened in that opinion by the conversations we have had with the

:16:48. > :16:51.people of Wales, who are yearning for the kind of leadership that is

:16:52. > :16:57.so lacking clearly in the Labour Party that has ruled Wales for 17

:16:58. > :17:01.years. Did that go down well the doorstep? If there is a sense of

:17:02. > :17:06.change and lots of voters felt that, maybe they didn't think that Plaid

:17:07. > :17:09.Cymru was the change that is needed, and perhaps Ukip was offering that

:17:10. > :17:18.change, the Conservatives were offering that change? Well, you

:17:19. > :17:22.know, it is time for change, that is certainly one of the most effective

:17:23. > :17:27.slogans in Democratic politics anywhere in the world. And I think

:17:28. > :17:32.the task that we face was not convincing people of that, because I

:17:33. > :17:37.think people were with us, they were ahead of us, possibly, in realising

:17:38. > :17:41.that we need change in terms of the Government of Wales. The task that

:17:42. > :17:45.Plaid Cymru faced was convincing people we were the vehicle for that

:17:46. > :17:49.change, and I hope to see the positive results of the effort that

:17:50. > :17:53.we put in. You know, I'm very proud of the campaign and the way that

:17:54. > :17:58.Plaid Cymru have bought. It was a very positive campaign, it was an

:17:59. > :18:02.inspiring campaign at a time when people naturally are alienating to

:18:03. > :18:08.buy politics, disaffected. I think Plaid Cymru put together a positive

:18:09. > :18:11.case of a null turner divination that Wales could be -- an

:18:12. > :18:14.alternative nation that Wales could be if we get the political

:18:15. > :18:17.leadership that we deserve, hopefully we will see the fruits of

:18:18. > :18:21.that campaign in positive results for Plaid Cymru across Wales

:18:22. > :18:29.tonight. You backed Johnny Depp throughout that campaign, of course.

:18:30. > :18:34.I asked your colleague -- you back to you leader throughout that

:18:35. > :18:40.campaign. Would you like to lead your party? That is a northern

:18:41. > :18:46.question, by the way. Leanne Wood emerged as the most popular leader

:18:47. > :18:50.in Wales. As soon -- at seeing as we are playing fantasy politics, I'll

:18:51. > :18:54.predict this, she will be the only leader left at the end of this term,

:18:55. > :18:58.with the positive exception of Kirsty Williams because there is

:18:59. > :19:03.nobody there left to challenge her! We may get a result very soon and

:19:04. > :19:11.burn it all becomes very real. Thank you, Adam Price, for joining us.

:19:12. > :19:17.More fantasy politics. Laura? In terms of coalitions and other deals

:19:18. > :19:21.available. What is your hunch, would Labour try going into coalition from

:19:22. > :19:26.past experience? We have to wait and see what the arithmetic is like.

:19:27. > :19:32.Berrer is a big difference between 2014 -- there is a big difference

:19:33. > :19:36.between 24 seats and 27 seats. I would say there would be a go at a

:19:37. > :19:40.minority government, mainly because by Cymru have made it pretty clear

:19:41. > :19:44.that they are not keen on propping up, going back to our narrative,

:19:45. > :19:48.propping up a tired Labour government. Not just because of

:19:49. > :19:52.that, but because there is not only great prize being dangled in front

:19:53. > :19:55.of Plaid Cymru at this time. It was different last time when there is

:19:56. > :20:00.the issue of the referendum on legislative powers. There isn't

:20:01. > :20:04.really anything very obvious that Labour could offer Plaid that would

:20:05. > :20:06.give it an opportunity to go into government and get something

:20:07. > :20:15.substantial and emerged in a better shape. People like Adam Price,

:20:16. > :20:17.actually if you look at his statements over the last year about

:20:18. > :20:20.coalition, they have been vehemently against that concept. Adam is not

:20:21. > :20:23.the leader, Leanne Wood is. But I suspect there will be a lot of

:20:24. > :20:29.pressure on Leanne to resist that initially. Some result from

:20:30. > :20:36.Scotland. The former leader of the Lib Dems has held onto the Shetland

:20:37. > :20:40.Islands. The Lib Dems doing paps expected -- perhaps better than

:20:41. > :20:46.expected in some parts of Scotland. In terms of leadership contests and

:20:47. > :20:47.personalities, in some ways this has been a presidential campaign, with

:20:48. > :20:52.certain parties pushing their leaders. How has that gone down on

:20:53. > :20:56.the doorstep, do you think? We know that people quite like a figure to

:20:57. > :20:59.look towards. When you then start people working together, if it is to

:21:00. > :21:06.personality -based that is quite hard. I was just thinking of the

:21:07. > :21:10.kind of deal system that we might possibly the emerging tomorrow, how

:21:11. > :21:14.much Labour could work with Plaid. In economic terms, in the intro are

:21:15. > :21:19.some very big projects that are controversial even within the Labour

:21:20. > :21:24.Party -- the in tray. For instance, what do we do about the servant

:21:25. > :21:31.tolls. In those sort of big things that need to be dealt with -- the

:21:32. > :21:39.servant tolls. -- the servant tolls. It will be interesting to see, these

:21:40. > :21:43.are ?1 billion projects, some of these. Actually compromising on some

:21:44. > :21:48.of these is going to be quite tricky. On the M4 Project, which

:21:49. > :21:52.have a high profile during the campaign, the fact that the champion

:21:53. > :21:56.of that project is leaving the field if you like, does that mean that

:21:57. > :22:00.that is off the table now, or slightly removed? She is the

:22:01. > :22:04.champion of the project ministerial league, but there are many champions

:22:05. > :22:08.of that project within the private sector who have been shouting and

:22:09. > :22:11.shouting for a long time. I think sometimes when people compare the

:22:12. > :22:16.black fruit of the blue route, it is as if they are not very different.

:22:17. > :22:20.They are very different. The blue route is favoured by Plaid Cymru, a

:22:21. > :22:23.dual carriageway, not a motorway. It is basically the old steelworks

:22:24. > :22:27.route that many of us have used around Newport for some time, going

:22:28. > :22:33.into an urban area. Worries the black fruit is a motorway with --

:22:34. > :22:37.where as the black fruit is a motorway in an area with very few

:22:38. > :22:40.people living but still controversial. These are very

:22:41. > :22:44.different products. If we are going to have a government which has to do

:22:45. > :22:48.deals with others, projects like that, and others that are equally

:22:49. > :22:54.controversial, going to be very hard to agree a coffee. We have quite a

:22:55. > :23:00.few turnout is coming out from Berry is considering seas. I wonder if we

:23:01. > :23:11.can show you this one, the turnout so far -- various constituencies.

:23:12. > :23:24.We have some others, too. The Vale of Clwyd is that 43%. Merthyr Tydfil

:23:25. > :23:28.39%, the list goes on. We were talking about 42% last election,

:23:29. > :23:35.some of them are. There is certainly a trend that turnout is up on five

:23:36. > :23:39.years ago -- some of them are up. That count as a lot of the concerns

:23:40. > :23:42.and the elements of the Assembly election campaign story that many of

:23:43. > :23:47.us have been reporting on. Actually there have been some people who have

:23:48. > :23:52.been saying that actually knocking on the doors, Carwyn Jones said this

:23:53. > :23:56.to me a few days ago, a lot of people were Clwyd up and were aware

:23:57. > :24:00.of what was going on. And this notion of there being a lower

:24:01. > :24:06.turnout wasn't being reflected on the doorstep. These are not

:24:07. > :24:11.spectacularly high turnout figures, it is up marginally, certainly from

:24:12. > :24:16.the figures I can see. In comparison with five years ago, that was a low

:24:17. > :24:20.turnout as well. Actually I think these are minuscule increases, let's

:24:21. > :24:24.not get too excited. If you look back to the first Assembly

:24:25. > :24:28.elections, the turnout was 46% then. I suspect we might creep up to that

:24:29. > :24:32.level, but that was before the Assembly had ever existed, there was

:24:33. > :24:38.no knowledge of what it could do at that point. I suspect if we were to

:24:39. > :24:41.go back, with some degree of embarrassment, and huge depression I

:24:42. > :24:47.think that we would be having this discussion five years later. If we

:24:48. > :24:55.compare the turnout in general elections which are far higher, 70%

:24:56. > :24:59.sometimes. This gives you the indication of the importance in most

:25:00. > :25:04.ordinary people's minds of the general elections. If we look back

:25:05. > :25:11.at that rule campaign, you covered the steel prices intensely. What

:25:12. > :25:14.role did that play -- steel crisis. There are two sides to this

:25:15. > :25:19.discussion. There was that actual thing of, what do we do about the

:25:20. > :25:24.steel industry, how do we save it? But we saw a real turn. We had all

:25:25. > :25:28.the parties saying, we must save steel. The Conservative government

:25:29. > :25:32.in London now considering a 25% stake in the industry, the kind of

:25:33. > :25:36.language that we have not had from anyone really since the 80s. But

:25:37. > :25:41.also I think what it did is it made us really think about what

:25:42. > :25:45.industries were there that we really needed to keep within or economy.

:25:46. > :25:49.Industries that we couldn't afford to lose. And we did let go largely

:25:50. > :25:53.of the coal industry but we are saying, no, we are not going to do

:25:54. > :25:57.this with steel. That made people really think about the strategic

:25:58. > :26:01.importance, how much we felt we wanted these industries in a way

:26:02. > :26:04.that we haven't before. Often ownership has moved, industries have

:26:05. > :26:09.moved, and we've kind of let it go saying, that is what happens with

:26:10. > :26:12.economies. There has been a real change point with the solstice

:26:13. > :26:15.organisers, people, politicians and voters have thought, actually, do we

:26:16. > :26:22.want to not have these industries any more -- with the steel crisis.

:26:23. > :26:26.Two governments were very keen to work together on both ends of the

:26:27. > :26:31.M4. Out of that play in the campaign? We said this many times --

:26:32. > :26:35.how did that play into the campaign. There was the sense that Labour got

:26:36. > :26:39.the upper hand, Carwyn Jones, wants the news broke he was there outside

:26:40. > :26:43.the plant, Sajid Javid was in Australia, and there were bad

:26:44. > :26:48.headlines about the UK Government slow response above arrester bed.

:26:49. > :26:53.Sarah talked about that, 25% stake -- slow response and all the rest of

:26:54. > :26:55.it. Certainly the hope from the Conservatives was that it would

:26:56. > :27:02.cancel it out as an issue politically. And, you know, in the

:27:03. > :27:05.fullness of time this will become apparent, the extent to which it

:27:06. > :27:10.became an issue. Certainly it has been a big issue in the local level

:27:11. > :27:14.in the constituencies around the steel plants. The sense in which it

:27:15. > :27:20.has become a national issue and one party has benefited from it is

:27:21. > :27:25.questionable. It has brought home how peoples income can be affected

:27:26. > :27:30.by global issues, the price of iron ore might seem very remote, but it

:27:31. > :27:34.has brought these big globalisation issues home. It has been an

:27:35. > :27:39.extraordinary story, and Wales has been at the heart of a big, global

:27:40. > :27:43.story. I think, politically behind-the-scenes some of the

:27:44. > :27:47.opposition parties were thinking that maybe Labour were taking

:27:48. > :27:52.advantage of the situation in the way that steel was hoovering up all

:27:53. > :27:58.be a time and wings like Labour's record running the NHS was proving

:27:59. > :28:01.difficult -- hoovering up all the airtime. Carwyn Jones says he is

:28:02. > :28:06.happy to defend that accusation because the steel industry is so

:28:07. > :28:11.important to the Welsh economy. Are first result is imminent, it is

:28:12. > :28:16.going to be from Allah in Deeside, the candidates are getting on stage.

:28:17. > :28:23.-- it is going to be from Alan in Deeside. The Minister for National

:28:24. > :28:28.resources lives there. They are all lined up on the stage. We should be

:28:29. > :28:32.able to hear the result very shortly. They are just checking that

:28:33. > :28:45.everything is ready. There we go, they are about to talk. Let's hear

:28:46. > :28:51.the result from Connah's Quay. Election of an Assembly Member for

:28:52. > :28:59.the Alyn and Deeside constituency. SPEAKS IN WELSH

:29:00. > :29:03.I, Colin Everett, being the constituency returning officer of

:29:04. > :29:06.the above election do hereby give notice that the number of votes

:29:07. > :29:07.recorded for each candidate at the set election is as follows.

:29:08. > :29:25.SPEAKS IN WELSH Martin Bennewith, Wales Green Party,

:29:26. > :29:53.527 votes. Michelle Brown, UK Independence

:29:54. > :30:13.Party, 3765 votes. Mike Gibbs, Welsh Conservative Party, 4558 votes.

:30:14. > :30:27.Jacqui Hurst, Plaid Cymru, 1994 votes. Carl Sargeant, Welsh Labour,

:30:28. > :30:41.9992 votes. CHEERING

:30:42. > :30:57.And finally, Peter Williams, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 980 votes.

:30:58. > :31:10.The number of ballot papers rejected, 142.

:31:11. > :31:17.I do hereby declare that Carl Sargeant, Welsh Labour, has been

:31:18. > :31:22.duly elected to serve as Assembly member for the said constituency.

:31:23. > :31:41.SPEAKS IN WELSH. That is the first result of the

:31:42. > :31:46.night and Carl Sargeant, the former minister, is holding onto Alyn and

:31:47. > :31:54.Deeside, and there he is, the am returning to Cardiff Bay, Carl

:31:55. > :31:59.Sargeant, with 9922 votes, a majority of 5364, on a turnout of

:32:00. > :32:04.35%, which is lower than some of the figures that we have been talking

:32:05. > :32:16.about. Let us look at the share of the vote then, Labour on 46% and the

:32:17. > :32:20.Conservatives on 21%, Ukip on 17% and Plaid Cymru on 9% with the Lib

:32:21. > :32:25.Dems on 5% and the Greens on 2%. I will talk you right through these

:32:26. > :32:33.graphics for our listeners on radio Wales. Labour are down 7% and so are

:32:34. > :32:37.the Conservatives but Ukip are up 17%. Plaid Cymru are edging up at 1%

:32:38. > :32:42.and the Liberal Democrats are down 3% and the Green party are up 2%

:32:43. > :32:46.which means that in Alyn and Deeside, the first result of the

:32:47. > :32:54.night, we have seen a swing from conservative to Labour, a tiny swing

:32:55. > :32:58.of 0.1%. We cannot read much into this because it was a pretty safe

:32:59. > :33:02.seat. We can't read a lot for the rest of Wales but a couple of

:33:03. > :33:05.interesting things emerge from that. First for the Conservatives came

:33:06. > :33:09.second and this was a seat that Ukip were talking up a couple of years

:33:10. > :33:14.ago as being a seat where they could really challenge Labour and they

:33:15. > :33:18.haven't done that in this election. They finished third, albeit a close

:33:19. > :33:21.third. The votes that Ukip have gained have probably come from

:33:22. > :33:24.Labour and the Conservatives which a lot of us predicted in some of those

:33:25. > :33:28.north-east seats and possibly that would be different in the valleys

:33:29. > :33:35.seats in East Wales. They did to target the north-east. They have hit

:33:36. > :33:40.it hard. Yes, they have had high Street premises and it is an area

:33:41. > :33:44.along with south-east Wales and North East Wales, they are Welsh

:33:45. > :33:50.heartland areas. A pretty good result therefore Carl Sargeant. His

:33:51. > :33:54.majority was 5505 years ago so it has really just come down marginally

:33:55. > :33:59.and if we are talking about a drop-off in support over five years

:34:00. > :34:03.of ten or 15 percentage points across Wales then that is not being

:34:04. > :34:06.reflected there in his figure, although one of the seats in

:34:07. > :34:12.north-east Wales that was probably always going to be strongest for

:34:13. > :34:18.Labour. Your point, Laura, that Ukip are targeting Labour as well as

:34:19. > :34:22.conservative, it is often seen that they are on the right but they are

:34:23. > :34:27.targeting the working class and that is where they are aiming at. Let us

:34:28. > :34:30.be 30 Ukip, in our discussions about them, I don't think they have

:34:31. > :34:35.targeted any group in particular, I think it has been more of a magnet

:34:36. > :34:39.effect in terms of electors attaching themselves to Ukip and

:34:40. > :34:43.that has been a pretty mixed bag. In the south Wales valleys it will be

:34:44. > :34:54.disenfranchised voters who might traditionally have voted Labour or,

:34:55. > :34:57.if they were looking for a protest party in the past might have voted

:34:58. > :35:00.Plaid Cymru but those voters who do go out, and not all of them will,

:35:01. > :35:03.will now vote Ukip if they want to vote against Labour. It is not left/

:35:04. > :35:07.right, it is a phenomenon, they are an antiparty in many senses, in

:35:08. > :35:10.terms of their behaviour as well. In the valleys, where you have been out

:35:11. > :35:14.with the campaigners, is it a protest vote or an attraction to

:35:15. > :35:18.something more positive? From the people I have spoken to, which is

:35:19. > :35:22.all I can know about, it is a protest vote in terms of often the

:35:23. > :35:25.people who said to me that they used to vote Labour and they now look

:35:26. > :35:29.that Ukip are people who economically feel they have been

:35:30. > :35:34.left behind a bit as the prosperity has moved south along the M4 and

:35:35. > :35:38.this area, Alyn and Deeside, and Wrexham which is coming up soon, is

:35:39. > :35:42.an area that has been relatively prosperous in the last few years and

:35:43. > :35:44.has had quite a lot of buzz government involvement and

:35:45. > :35:49.supporting of the key industries there and I think that might make a

:35:50. > :35:52.difference. Thank you, let us go back to the sofas and we will have

:35:53. > :35:57.reaction to the first result. At last we have a Welsh result.

:35:58. > :36:02.It is something we can get our teeth into and it is a Labour win for Carl

:36:03. > :36:06.Sargeant. What is your reaction, David? A very good result for Labour

:36:07. > :36:11.and for Carl Sargeant and I think a couple of points I'd like to make is

:36:12. > :36:16.that the results in different parts of Wales will be very different,

:36:17. > :36:22.local factors are important although this is an all Wales selection. Ian

:36:23. > :36:27.Wood Caerphilly for example my guess is that Labour will hold it but it

:36:28. > :36:30.will be closer than people imagine and that is because there is the

:36:31. > :36:33.issue of the local development plan that has been put forward by the

:36:34. > :36:37.Labour councillor and that has been a big issue in the southern part of

:36:38. > :36:42.the constituency and it is also a case that although this is an all

:36:43. > :36:46.Wales campaign UK perceptions are still very important and we can't

:36:47. > :36:51.get away from the fact that over the last week or so the Labour Party at

:36:52. > :36:56.a UK level has not done itself a lot of favours and you have Ken

:36:57. > :37:07.Livingstone making outrageous comments on him

:37:08. > :37:10.being suspended, senior figure being suspended from the party, and that

:37:11. > :37:13.has created an overall impression I think, despite the excellent work of

:37:14. > :37:16.Carwyn Jones, that the Labour Party on a UK level is not doing what it

:37:17. > :37:19.should do. That has happened in the last few days but you have had the

:37:20. > :37:23.steel crisis and criticism Oval the UK Government not reacting fast

:37:24. > :37:28.enough and Ben David cannon 's tax affairs of the junior doctors

:37:29. > :37:32.strike, it hasn't been all one way, the UK picture, many people would

:37:33. > :37:35.argue it has been in the favour of Welsh Labour for much of the

:37:36. > :37:39.campaign? There have certainly been elements in the last few weeks in

:37:40. > :37:42.Labour's favour but we have to be honest and look at the situation

:37:43. > :37:47.regarding Jeremy Corbyn 's leadership, there was a lot of

:37:48. > :37:50.concern amongst voters generally about the direction of the Labour

:37:51. > :37:58.Party and I think the onus now is very much on Jeremy Corbyn to show

:37:59. > :38:01.his working-class views in Wales and show he has the aspiring voters

:38:02. > :38:05.views as well and that is a big challenge for the Labour Party. Is

:38:06. > :38:10.it the voters who do not like Jeremy Corbyn, or his MPs? I think it is an

:38:11. > :38:15.element both if I am honest and Jeremy is a very, very decent person

:38:16. > :38:18.but I think that although he has made progress in the last few weeks

:38:19. > :38:22.of his leadership, he still has a heck of a lot to do and I am one of

:38:23. > :38:25.those people who strongly supports him and urges him to make those

:38:26. > :38:31.changes because he is going to be the leader of the Labour Party for a

:38:32. > :38:37.long time. Are you sure about that? As long as he can be. You

:38:38. > :38:41.anticipated my question because I was going to ask what your opinion

:38:42. > :38:46.was a Jeremy Corbyn and you have said he strongly support and that is

:38:47. > :38:53.fine. Ukip reaction from you, Jim, you have beaten Plaid Cymru but a

:38:54. > :38:58.solid performance from the Conservatives to force you into

:38:59. > :39:01.third place. 17% bodes well, Michelle is number two on our

:39:02. > :39:07.regional list there so it bodes very well. We are slightly up on what the

:39:08. > :39:11.opinion polls are saying. It bodes very well for us in North Wales, it

:39:12. > :39:16.is mathematically the easier of the regions to win the seat since

:39:17. > :39:24.because of the size and it is looking very positive and to get 17%

:39:25. > :39:28.in that part of the world is very strong and I think it bodes well and

:39:29. > :39:32.it goes back also to the fact that we are taking votes clearly from

:39:33. > :39:36.Labour and Conservatives and we are taking votes from both parties. I

:39:37. > :39:43.disappointed not to be the second party? I don't think there is that

:39:44. > :39:47.much in it, it was not that much of the issue. It was going to be very

:39:48. > :39:52.hard seat to win and I want to see us march forward on from this

:39:53. > :39:56.election and be in a position of having Assembly members and going

:39:57. > :39:59.into the next Assembly elections looking at those first past the post

:40:00. > :40:06.seats and using the list seats as the opportunities to springboard.

:40:07. > :40:10.Craig, your reaction to the results? I know we are all excited have

:40:11. > :40:14.result invest is not one of the most exciting seats. Let us talk about

:40:15. > :40:18.it, I think it emphasises what we have been talking about throughout

:40:19. > :40:21.the programme, about the Conservatives and motivating the

:40:22. > :40:25.vote and getting them out for an Assembly Election and I think that

:40:26. > :40:30.shone through there and if you look at the solid second place, in the

:40:31. > :40:35.Assembly politics we are clearly now in second place, we have defended

:40:36. > :40:38.that significantly and I think we will see results from Conservative

:40:39. > :40:42.results but I think that does emphasise what we will see

:40:43. > :40:44.throughout the night, motivating that conservative vote for Assembly

:40:45. > :40:49.elections is perhaps something we need to focus on. We haven't really

:40:50. > :40:52.talked about the Ukip challenge to the Conservative support. We talked

:40:53. > :40:56.about how Labour fights that but what are your thoughts from a

:40:57. > :41:00.conservative perspective? Very briefly, if you would. You have to

:41:01. > :41:03.see it in the context of the EU referendum and the holy issue was

:41:04. > :41:07.quite heightened at the moment and I think the fact that we have offered

:41:08. > :41:13.the British people that referendum, that is our response in a way and

:41:14. > :41:18.getting that mandate from the British people, whether to stay in,

:41:19. > :41:23.as I want or leave as most of Ukip want and some in my party and hoping

:41:24. > :41:28.that to clear the air and said that issue for a generation and then we

:41:29. > :41:31.can move in -- move on. I know we will disagree on this but the

:41:32. > :41:37.European issue is the Ukip flag that they all rally around. For the

:41:38. > :41:43.Liberal Democrats, fewer than 1000 votes, Jenny, what are your

:41:44. > :41:47.thoughts? Well, this is not a part of Wales where we thought we were

:41:48. > :41:56.going to do astonishingly well. It is not a seat we have targeted in

:41:57. > :42:01.anyway and we are very grateful to our candidates who have been

:42:02. > :42:05.standing in seats like this, and showing the Liberal Democrat flag.

:42:06. > :42:10.This is really important that that option is put there but I want to

:42:11. > :42:19.take up the issue that we have just raised, which is that I think in so

:42:20. > :42:26.many ways this is a fascinating time in politics, but it is a very unique

:42:27. > :42:32.time in politics because of the EU referendum. We are passionately

:42:33. > :42:38.pro-European party, but it is quite obvious from the campaigning on the

:42:39. > :42:45.doorsteps that Ukip's popularity is being buoyed up by the fact that the

:42:46. > :42:54.EU question is at the front of everyone's mind, and so because the

:42:55. > :42:59.other parties are to a greater or lesser extent pro-EU then the hand

:43:00. > :43:05.TEU vote is coalescing around Ukip. It is therefore making them very

:43:06. > :43:09.much more popular at this moment and we will have to see how things work

:43:10. > :43:16.out in the long run. I very much hope that Britain will, as a whole,

:43:17. > :43:19.though to stay in the EU. In terms of the Ukip attraction, what did you

:43:20. > :43:23.make of the idea that we heard from Laura that they are a magnet for

:43:24. > :43:26.people who feel themselves disenfranchised by the established

:43:27. > :43:30.political parties, because that is a real challenge for the rest of you,

:43:31. > :43:35.to try and re-appeal to those voters, isn't it? I think the

:43:36. > :43:38.interesting thing is where they are getting their vote from. I would say

:43:39. > :43:46.that the Labour Party needs to be very worried because my experience

:43:47. > :43:56.was that the Ukip vote was largely coming from areas, working-class,

:43:57. > :44:03.previously traditional Labour areas, and Jeremy Corbyn is actually pretty

:44:04. > :44:11.popular amongst middle-class Labour supporters, of which there are loads

:44:12. > :44:15.in Wales, but he is not terribly popular in the more working-class

:44:16. > :44:25.areas and Ukip is picking up a lot of votes there. That vote is

:44:26. > :44:30.becoming solid as well. We have seen that, it is becoming a solid vote

:44:31. > :44:34.and we saw during the campaign that the people we are speaking to join

:44:35. > :44:38.the campaign, they are consistently voting Ukip now. Hold that thought

:44:39. > :44:41.for a second because I just want to bring Amelia in because we have not

:44:42. > :44:48.heard from you about the Wrexham results. This is an area we are not

:44:49. > :44:52.looking specifically for seats in but the 2% is actually difference it

:44:53. > :44:56.makes to get a Green elected, it sounds small but those small changes

:44:57. > :45:00.is all we need. We have been close in the past and this could be our

:45:01. > :45:04.opportunity but I want to call in the EU aspect because I think one of

:45:05. > :45:07.the fears is that whoever does going to the Welsh Assembly, they don't

:45:08. > :45:09.know what platform now going to be there on and the changing tides of

:45:10. > :45:24.politics means it is possible that people are not going to be able

:45:25. > :45:27.to deliver what was in their manifesto, it is possible that if

:45:28. > :45:30.there was a Brexit, I hope that we remain but if we do leave that the

:45:31. > :45:33.AMs will not be able to deliver. I think it is a shame that it has

:45:34. > :45:36.dominated this election because obviously AMs do not have any say on

:45:37. > :45:38.this and we all have a duty to combat Ukip in our communities. We

:45:39. > :45:42.put out leaflets saying we would never blame the failure of

:45:43. > :45:45.government policy on migrants in our communities because I think that we

:45:46. > :45:52.have seen that we have scratched the surface. There are vicious attacks

:45:53. > :45:55.on my party coming from organisations and I speak as the

:45:56. > :46:00.only British parliamentarian with the Romani Gypsy background and I am

:46:01. > :46:08.probably one of the most left-wing members of my party but it is

:46:09. > :46:11.despicable when people have smashed my constituency office and what is

:46:12. > :46:20.clear, as has been indicated by Jenny... Candidates said they blamed

:46:21. > :46:25.rubbish on migration. Wrap this up very briefly, if you wouldn't mind.

:46:26. > :46:28.We have to talk about the fact that people are voting for Ukip because

:46:29. > :46:32.they feel let down by the other parties and that she Ukip is the

:46:33. > :46:36.only party that is actually... You can't blame the vulnerable in our

:46:37. > :46:37.society for the failures of government policy. We will leave

:46:38. > :46:49.that now and we will go back to bed. Turnout is something we have been

:46:50. > :46:58.talking about a lot. We have facts and figures. Let's go to the Senedd

:46:59. > :47:02.to look at turnout. Bethan, we have had around a dozen results coming in

:47:03. > :47:06.in terms of the turnout. We will have a look at how it compares with

:47:07. > :47:10.the other Assembly elections. These are the turnout in each of the

:47:11. > :47:15.elections since 1999, the high point was in the first election, 46%.

:47:16. > :47:20.Since then it has been a disappointing set of turnout was,

:47:21. > :47:27.the lowest was 38%. Then 43% in 2011.

:47:28. > :47:35.The turnout is higher than what we have seen in the past, 46%. Putting

:47:36. > :47:41.it on a par with the first election that we saw back in 1999. There is

:47:42. > :47:45.still perhaps a cause for concern. Let's bring in the general election

:47:46. > :47:51.results, the turnout result that we have had in Wales during the same

:47:52. > :47:56.period. You can see in 1999 you have got a 46% turnout for the Assembly

:47:57. > :48:02.election, the 61% cannot for the Westminster election. That is a 15

:48:03. > :48:09.percentage point gap -- turnout. And if we move along to what we have got

:48:10. > :48:14.so far the night at least, you see that gap has actually grown. The gap

:48:15. > :48:18.between those who voted in Assembly elections and those who voted in

:48:19. > :48:22.Westminster elections has grown now to 20 percentage points. I guess

:48:23. > :48:25.that is going to be the fear for Assembly Members and all those

:48:26. > :48:29.involved with the Assembly itself, why don't these elections seem to

:48:30. > :48:33.get so much attention, so much interest from people to get them out

:48:34. > :48:42.voting as the Westminster elections do? It is early days, we haven't had

:48:43. > :48:45.in yet. But that 46% is a fair bit lower than what we saw last year in

:48:46. > :48:48.the general election. Of course, different issues, different matters,

:48:49. > :48:54.people vote differently, but quite a gap between the two sets of

:48:55. > :48:58.elections. Thank you. We have swapped professors again, Richard

:48:59. > :49:02.Wyn Jones is back with us. While you were away, we had a few results from

:49:03. > :49:05.Scotland. What did you read on to those with the MX picture. The

:49:06. > :49:10.Liberal Democrats, who will be hearing the absolute worst, were

:49:11. > :49:17.cheered by the first result of the evening in Orkney were after

:49:18. > :49:23.Alistair Carmichael's prevails they won handsomely. The main line of the

:49:24. > :49:29.story is the continuing rise of the SNP. But it is a little patchy. What

:49:30. > :49:33.you see is in those areas, the independence referendum has changed

:49:34. > :49:38.everything in Scottish politics. In those working class areas where they

:49:39. > :49:42.used away the Labour votes, the SNP is doing really well -- used the

:49:43. > :49:53.way. Then we see other kinds of patterns. We saw a result in the

:49:54. > :49:57.leafy stuff leafy suburbs of Glasgow, a well-heeled area, where

:49:58. > :50:02.we had a 3-way competition and the Tories came from the middle and took

:50:03. > :50:06.the seat from Ken McIntosh, a prominent Scottish Labour politician

:50:07. > :50:10.who used to be talked about as prospective leader. In other seats

:50:11. > :50:15.we see the anti-SNP starting to coalesce around whoever seems best

:50:16. > :50:20.placed to challenge them. We are seeing a reshaping of Scottish

:50:21. > :50:26.politics around the unionist - nationalist or independent divide.

:50:27. > :50:29.It will cost, of course the Tories have been pushing that line very

:50:30. > :50:34.hard during the campaign. There does seem to be some element of that

:50:35. > :50:40.coming into play. Let's bring in schools on the doors if you like for

:50:41. > :50:44.Scotland now. We have 48% share of the vote on the constituencies. We

:50:45. > :50:58.haven't had any regional voting yet, for the SNP. That is up 3%.

:50:59. > :51:08.Kezia Dugdale, brought in to revive Scottish Labour's fortunes after a

:51:09. > :51:12.very rough patch for the party. Is she doing that? It doesn't seem to

:51:13. > :51:18.be working? No, they clearly haven't hit the bottom. Although if she

:51:19. > :51:24.wants to carry on, she can carry on. The last thing that Labour lead now

:51:25. > :51:29.is yet another leader -- Labour need. They can't simply continue

:51:30. > :51:35.changing readers. But we are seeing, you know, a remarkable demise of

:51:36. > :51:40.this mighty, once mighty electoral machine. They are in dire, dire

:51:41. > :51:44.Straits and it does seem genuinely possible now that the Conservatives,

:51:45. > :51:48.it is still early doors and the figures are very, very early, but it

:51:49. > :51:53.is now clearly possible that Labour have a third party in Scotland -- of

:51:54. > :51:57.a third party. Health and education were prominent, but it was mainly

:51:58. > :52:01.about tax, their new powers on income tax. And also, will there be

:52:02. > :52:06.another referendum and what would be the trigger for that? In terms of

:52:07. > :52:10.the divide, Independent has become the big dividing line. We used to

:52:11. > :52:15.talk about class politics in Britain, once upon a time. In

:52:16. > :52:20.Scotland, the divide now seems to be independence. That is the big

:52:21. > :52:24.dividing terms of the way that foes are split between the parties. In

:52:25. > :52:30.terms of issues, the main issue was taxation -- the way the divides are

:52:31. > :52:33.split. That is an interesting contrast with Scotland, they are

:52:34. > :52:36.further down that road, they have the legislation on the fiscal

:52:37. > :52:41.framework. They essentially know where they are and they have a much

:52:42. > :52:44.more expensive measure of income tax devolution than the partial income

:52:45. > :52:49.tax devolution that has been suggested for Wales. It has entered

:52:50. > :52:55.into the debate here, but not probably. Can I ask, I was thinking,

:52:56. > :53:00.do you think, you say the Assembly elections in five years' time were

:53:01. > :53:03.maybe at that stage, the income tax devolution would have happened, or

:53:04. > :53:08.partial control of income tax. Will we ever get to that stage, the level

:53:09. > :53:14.of that debate on income tax in Wales as we see in Scotland? I think

:53:15. > :53:19.we will. I think it is inevitable. I think it has now been accepted by

:53:20. > :53:22.the UK parties that you cannot have a situation where you have read of

:53:23. > :53:28.all the Assembly which is basically a spending agency and is not raising

:53:29. > :53:32.any money. -- when you have a devolved Assembly. We are going to

:53:33. > :53:38.see a move to a situation where the Assembly and the budget of ?15

:53:39. > :53:42.million per year, 20% of that will be from home sourced revenues. That

:53:43. > :53:46.changes the nature of the debate. There are big questions as to how we

:53:47. > :53:50.get from here to there in terms of negotiating the Welsh fiscal

:53:51. > :53:55.framework. But I'm sure that we will get there. And it will change the

:53:56. > :53:59.nature of wealth politics. And let's just look at Bridgend, what is

:54:00. > :54:03.happening that -- the nature of Welsh politics. Several results

:54:04. > :54:11.coming in, not least the by-election. There is a pretty rare

:54:12. > :54:15.move of moving from Westminster, trying to get that seat, which he

:54:16. > :54:21.probably will, it will be quite a shock if he doesn't hold it from the

:54:22. > :54:24.Assembly. We are likely to see four former MPs joining the Assembly

:54:25. > :54:31.tonight, or this morning, or whatever, I have lost track! We have

:54:32. > :54:35.got Adam Price, Mark Reckless, Neil Hamilton, obviously experienced

:54:36. > :54:39.parliamentarians all joining the Assembly. Neil Hamilton described it

:54:40. > :54:44.as a promotion this evening. As he should. Absolutely. There they are.

:54:45. > :54:51.They are lining up. That is the by-election results coming. The

:54:52. > :54:56.candidate is trying to move into the Assembly. Let's see if he is about

:54:57. > :55:02.to make that declaration. There is the returning officer. The

:55:03. > :55:05.parliamentary by-election for the honourable constituency. I will do

:55:06. > :55:11.that in English, followed by a Welsh translation. I, being the acting

:55:12. > :55:16.returning officer of the election held on the 5th of May 2016, do

:55:17. > :55:21.hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate

:55:22. > :55:32.at the election is as follows. Glenda Davies, Ukip Wales, 3808.

:55:33. > :55:48.Janet Allard, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 702. Christopher Lowell

:55:49. > :55:56.Welsh Labour, 12800 and 83. Abigail Thomas, Plaid Cymru, 3563. Alexander

:55:57. > :56:06.Williams, Welsh Conservative Party, 2956. There were 77 rejected ballot

:56:07. > :56:11.papers. I do hereby declare that Christopher Elmore is Julie elected.

:56:12. > :56:46.-- is duly elected. STUDIO: Right, let's have a look at

:56:47. > :56:54.the vote for Ogmore, then. Labour on 52%.

:56:55. > :57:02.It has moved on to quickly for me to see, I'm afraid! Somebody else's

:57:03. > :57:08.controlling my buttons, not me. Ogmore, Labour hold. There we have

:57:09. > :57:10.it, the new Labour MP for Ogmore is Chris Elmore, who trained as a

:57:11. > :57:37.butcher many years ago, apparently. A majority of 8575 for Labour, and

:57:38. > :57:44.traditionally a very strong Labour seat, and held on. Not an issue for

:57:45. > :57:49.Huw Irranca-Davies. He has been there for a long time, he took over

:57:50. > :57:55.Ray Powell in Westminster. No surprise with Ogmore, safe as

:57:56. > :57:59.houses. Chris Elmore has been a councillor in the Vale of Glamorgan,

:58:00. > :58:03.he studied at Glamorgan, actually, this time last year. And he has now

:58:04. > :58:08.got himself a seat in parliament, as a result of that decision by Huw

:58:09. > :58:12.Irranca-Davies, which in a way is more interesting than the Ogmore

:58:13. > :58:16.by-election result, really. Which was largely expected. It is very

:58:17. > :58:22.interesting that Huw Irranca-Davies followed Ray Powell in Westminster

:58:23. > :58:27.and is hopeful following Ray Powell's daughter. That's right,

:58:28. > :58:31.Janice Gregory. Something that we really haven't seen during the

:58:32. > :58:36.course of the Assembly in the past 17 years, somebody in their prime,

:58:37. > :58:40.if you could call it that. The prime of his parliamentary career, Huw

:58:41. > :58:45.Irranca-Davies, clearly making a definitive call, I think the action

:58:46. > :58:48.is in Cardiff Bay. You can read that two ways. One, you could be very

:58:49. > :58:52.positive about devolution and what is happening with the powers. You

:58:53. > :58:55.could also read into it as a reflection of where he thinks the

:58:56. > :59:00.state of the Labour Party is a key parliamentary level at the moment.

:59:01. > :59:07.But he has made the decision. It could be both, of course. One thing

:59:08. > :59:13.that I find interesting, no surprise is there, but one thing the point

:59:14. > :59:19.about result with and I is is going to happen the rest of the morning.

:59:20. > :59:23.Labour is well ahead of the pack, but the opposition was going to be

:59:24. > :59:29.evenly divided. You had three parties all around 3000 votes.

:59:30. > :59:34.Collectively, that vote would be enough to at least give you a base

:59:35. > :59:39.to -- from which to challenge Labour. Labour are fortunate in this

:59:40. > :59:44.electoral contest because their opposition is fractured. That gives

:59:45. > :59:47.them an enormous advantage, particularly in the electoral

:59:48. > :59:53.context. Also now Ukip or on the block as well. And white Cymru,

:59:54. > :59:58.partisans are looking at that and thinking, we are, whatever it was --

:59:59. > :00:02.Plaid Cymru. It was a boost for them in that result, but it is not

:00:03. > :00:07.troubling the school in anyway. Labour are just far ahead of the

:00:08. > :00:14.pack. It has consistently helped Labour through the years. Except for

:00:15. > :00:20.99, of course. The first devolved election, Plaid Cymru appeared for

:00:21. > :00:24.that brief moment. Since then, we have had this rise to the

:00:25. > :00:32.Conservatives and the sinking of Plaid. Now the arrival of Ukip as a

:00:33. > :00:39.serious balls, 15, 16, 17%. This is a fantastic system for Labour -- a

:00:40. > :00:45.serious support. It is a fantastic position for them. Many would say

:00:46. > :00:50.they are a very lucky party. They got 52% of the vote, they won that

:00:51. > :00:53.handsomely, there and square. I was trying to draw attention to the

:00:54. > :00:58.point about the fractured vote. Can I diving quickly, the chairman of

:00:59. > :01:01.the local Conservative branch in the Vale of Clwyd saying it looks like

:01:02. > :01:17.they have lost. Strong indication that Labour have

:01:18. > :01:24.held the Vale of Clwyd. I should not have interrupted Andrew RT Davies

:01:25. > :01:31.some hours ago... I do apologise... I am getting... It is very early

:01:32. > :01:36.on... Thank you, it is 3am, time to go back to the spin room. Let's talk

:01:37. > :01:42.to Hugh Thomas, taking over from Jason. Still building his fantasy

:01:43. > :01:47.football team. There was a bit of a hush here, then

:01:48. > :01:53.that came in, the chat beginning again. I am joined by three women

:01:54. > :02:08.now, who will chat around arts and culture and the place that has had

:02:09. > :02:12.in the campaign. Welcome to you all. Laura, the arts, as a doorstep

:02:13. > :02:17.issue, it is quite low down on the priority list for politicians, is

:02:18. > :02:22.that the general impression? I think so, although it's quite high in my

:02:23. > :02:26.household and other households. We've had the largest hustings in

:02:27. > :02:31.Wales based around arts and culture and it was successful. It tends to

:02:32. > :02:35.be seen as a low-down issue, I think it's written right the way through

:02:36. > :02:41.we live our lives, we should be more aware of it, more open when talking

:02:42. > :02:45.about it and I was politicians would do the same. Yvette, you live in

:02:46. > :02:52.Cardiff, what is the perception about how Wales works with the arts?

:02:53. > :02:55.The political influence? There is no doubt that artists are enormous

:02:56. > :03:00.ambassadors for Wells. People nowhere else across the world,

:03:01. > :03:04.generally through the artists. But it's really obvious from the

:03:05. > :03:10.outside, when you want to come in and work in Wales, it is not

:03:11. > :03:15.championing the arts in terms of politics. It's not easy to navigate

:03:16. > :03:21.your way into Wales as an artist. In what way? Either barriers? There is

:03:22. > :03:27.a lack of clarity about who to go to, bird is lots of different silos,

:03:28. > :03:33.the creative industry separate from the arts. -- there is lots. No real

:03:34. > :03:40.channels of communication. It needs to be sorted. It is duplication and

:03:41. > :03:44.it's not efficient. That really is a political issue. We will go back to

:03:45. > :03:57.get a result... I think. Thank you, we think a

:03:58. > :04:03.result is imminent, let's cross to the overturning officer. And the

:04:04. > :04:15.result coming imminently from Delyn... No, they are still checking

:04:16. > :04:24.the sound... Sandy has represented since 2003... Congratulations to all

:04:25. > :04:33.the team. Election of an assembly member for the Delyn constituency...

:04:34. > :04:38.I Colin Everett, the constituency officer for the above election do

:04:39. > :04:39.hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate

:04:40. > :05:12.at the selection is as follows... Hannah Caroline Blethyn, 9480. Tom

:05:13. > :05:19.Rippeth, Welsh Liberal Democrats... 1718. Paul Robinson... Plaid

:05:20. > :05:49.Cymru... To 269. Huw Williams, Welsh Conservatives...

:05:50. > :05:52.5898. Nigel Williams, Ukip... 3794. The total number of ballot papers

:05:53. > :06:05.rejected 165. I hereby declare that Hannah Blythyn

:06:06. > :06:24.has been elect did... CHEERING

:06:25. > :06:31.Continuing in the labour fold, Delyn. 9480, labour, Huw Williams

:06:32. > :06:41.but the Conservative Party is second. Ukip in third place.

:06:42. > :06:49.Let's look at the share of the vote in Delyn... 41% for Labour, 25%

:06:50. > :07:04.Conservative, 1640 Ukip... Labour down 5%, Conservatives down

:07:05. > :07:11.8%, Ukip up against 16%, the same sort of fries that we saw in Alyn

:07:12. > :07:17.and Deeside. Plaid Cymru down 3%, the Liberal Democrats no change.

:07:18. > :07:23.Considering the swing their... One and a half percent swing from

:07:24. > :07:25.Conservatives to Labour. This is a very good result for Labour,

:07:26. > :07:31.disappointing for the Conservative Party. Particularly, this was a

:07:32. > :07:37.seat, three months ago, you would have said, the Conservatives are in

:07:38. > :07:42.with a shout. Hannah Blyton, energetic, working the seat very

:07:43. > :07:49.hard, this was a part of the world, the Conservatives were feeling

:07:50. > :08:14.Chaparrastique, it adds... Let's go to that they love to it, I result...

:08:15. > :08:24.SPEAKS WELSH... I, being the returning officer at the selection,

:08:25. > :08:29.do hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for each

:08:30. > :09:07.candidate at this election is as follows... Paul Cook, Ukip... 2975.

:09:08. > :09:25.Ann Jones, Welsh Labour... 9560. Maya Romans... Plaid Cymru... 2098.

:09:26. > :09:39.Samuel Romans... Welsh Conservatives...

:09:40. > :09:54.8792. -- Rowlands. Gwyn Williams... Welsh Liberal Democrats...

:09:55. > :10:21.I do hereby declare that the said Margaret Ann Jones has been duly

:10:22. > :10:28.elected to serve as assembly member for the said constituency. Ann

:10:29. > :10:33.Jones, shaking the hand with a big smile, the returning officer,

:10:34. > :10:44.representing that area since 99, and she will be going back to Cardiff

:10:45. > :10:50.Bay. To represent the Vale of Clwyd. The result... Let's look at the

:10:51. > :10:58.share of the vote. 40%, Labour. A big Tory target seat, 36%, the

:10:59. > :11:05.Conservatives. They too good in the general election, 2015. Ukip on 12%,

:11:06. > :11:15.Plaid Cymru of 9%. The majority for Labour of 768, a turnout of 43%.

:11:16. > :11:19.They pushed hard, Ann Jones, Labour wanted her because of the personal

:11:20. > :11:28.support and the history she has in that seat. And she has held that.

:11:29. > :11:34.That is the... Swing in share of the vote... We are looking at the

:11:35. > :11:43.changed since 2011, 11% down for Labour, Conservatives up 3%, Ukip up

:11:44. > :11:48.12%, Plaid Cymru down 3%. The Liberal Democrats down by 2%, if you

:11:49. > :11:52.are listing to us in bed on Radio Wales, these graphics do not come

:11:53. > :12:01.alive but we are doing our best. We are painting the picture. Richard...

:12:02. > :12:08.This was a 7% swing to the Conservatives, they needed about

:12:09. > :12:16.eight points seven, they did well, but this was a key seat for them.

:12:17. > :12:22.They won it, it was one of the big surprises last year, they thought

:12:23. > :12:26.they could maintain that momentum, this is a very good result for

:12:27. > :12:33.Labour. A popular assembly member who worked the patch. Indeed, this

:12:34. > :12:38.was a part of the world... I mention this earlier after the Delyn

:12:39. > :12:45.results, I am sorry, Alyn and Deeside... These are seats in parts

:12:46. > :12:50.of Wales, the Conservatives expecting to do well three months

:12:51. > :12:54.ago and they are not doing it. We are going to see Wrexham... They may

:12:55. > :12:59.just be falling short everywhere. That would be a stunning achievement

:13:00. > :13:03.for Labour, to be fair. OK, let's talk to Chris now, I think he can

:13:04. > :13:13.join us from Rhondda... Good morning. I am holding my ear in. Do

:13:14. > :13:21.not let go. You looking good. It is very quiet! Let's start... Come on,

:13:22. > :13:29.get on with it, ask me a question. You are relieved that you held onto

:13:30. > :13:36.to Alan and these and Delyn? Yes, I am delighted for Hannah that she has

:13:37. > :13:44.won. -- Alyn and Deeside. The Welsh Assembly, proud to think of him as a

:13:45. > :13:49.collie, the Tories, as you said, had been falling short, I think that's

:13:50. > :13:54.because you see a divided Tory party. David Cameron's leadership, a

:13:55. > :13:58.terrible budget, basically trying to balance the books of this country on

:13:59. > :14:04.the backs of the disadvantaged and vulnerable... Sergei Javad being the

:14:05. > :14:14.most incompetent Business Secretary, having nothing to say to the people

:14:15. > :14:19.of Port Talbot. -- side she Javad. We had Nathan Gill on the programme,

:14:20. > :14:23.saying yes, we are targeting Labour, that is a great rival, not the party

:14:24. > :14:28.of the right, party of the left and working class. They are the party of

:14:29. > :14:33.the right pretending to be a party of the working classes, that's the

:14:34. > :14:37.truth. I don't think any of the resolutions about finance, the NHS,

:14:38. > :14:42.all of those would be even more right-wing in the Conservative

:14:43. > :14:46.Party, in the general election in the Rhondda last year, Ukip got 4000

:14:47. > :14:50.votes, I don't think they'll get anything like that tonight. It's

:14:51. > :14:58.nothing like a uniform swing across Wales, seeing people like... I have

:14:59. > :15:01.forgotten his name... The Tory man who got into terrible trouble and

:15:02. > :15:07.had to leave Parliament and is now going to be elected on the list for

:15:08. > :15:14.Ukip... Right, OK... After seeing those people on telly, they will go

:15:15. > :15:18.in Wales, I do not want Ukip. He wouldn't describe himself like

:15:19. > :15:24.that,... Neil Hamilton... What a ghastly man. Let's look at the fight

:15:25. > :15:30.for UR. Leanne Wood taking on Leighton Andrews, what are you

:15:31. > :15:36.hearing? It's difficult to tell, you can see there is a break going on,

:15:37. > :15:40.we have not verified yet, still separating out all the papers. It's

:15:41. > :15:44.difficult to tell, the largest postal ballot vote anywhere in Wales

:15:45. > :15:50.as I understand, we have not even started looking at those. We have

:15:51. > :15:55.and we are hopeful that Leighton Andrews will win, he is a cracking

:15:56. > :15:59.minister, superb assembly member, Leanne has had vast acreage of

:16:00. > :16:02.coverage for the last 18 months on telly every single day and

:16:03. > :16:07.undoubtedly that will help her campaign but I passionately hope

:16:08. > :16:13.that Leighton Andrews will still be my assembly colleagues. Do you think

:16:14. > :16:20.we will have result? We are on a until 9:15am... Fingers crossed. I

:16:21. > :16:23.had a bit of a nap before at 10pm because I thought we might take a

:16:24. > :16:27.long time. I look forward to seeing you later. OK, thank you. I am sure

:16:28. > :16:43.we will have you back. Thank you. He is very chipper! Who knows what

:16:44. > :16:51.is going on. I just got a horrific message from Cardiff West think they

:16:52. > :16:58.are slow. Why? We did think that the Police and Crime Commissioner vog

:16:59. > :17:02.would have an impact. I am starting a campaign now for counting on

:17:03. > :17:09.Friday. I used to enjoy the overnight excitement, but... Are you

:17:10. > :17:17.getting too old? That may be the case. Maybe we all are. There will

:17:18. > :17:23.be a flurry of results now. We have a scoreboard. It looks pitiful at

:17:24. > :17:30.the moment. Not much on it. No, it has gone. We did have a scoreboard.

:17:31. > :17:35.1 of the things that is worth pondering is that all the polls we

:17:36. > :17:40.have had in the campaign has suggested a big drop in Labour

:17:41. > :17:48.support. Maybe not translating to a drop in seats, maybe losing a

:17:49. > :17:54.quarter of the votes and 2 or 3 of the seats. At least in North East

:17:55. > :17:56.Wales and we are talking specifically about 1 part of the

:17:57. > :18:05.country, we're not think that drop-off in Labour support. They are

:18:06. > :18:10.holding up well. That interesting -- that is interesting because that is

:18:11. > :18:16.a part of Wales where the economy is doing well, except for those people

:18:17. > :18:21.without skills. They are the people with very little prospects and

:18:22. > :18:33.perhaps they are the people that are giving 11% swings towards Ukip. The

:18:34. > :18:42.other thing about these constituencies is places like Delyn,

:18:43. > :18:51.what has that played in the campaign? Labour has told us for a

:18:52. > :18:58.while that the problems surrounding the NHS Pete about a year ago and

:18:59. > :19:03.they had a handle on the issues. Those results would suggest that

:19:04. > :19:11.maybe that was the case. But then the other point which 1 should

:19:12. > :19:14.underline is we might witness localise results. We may have this

:19:15. > :19:24.particular tendency in the North East. Will Gower be more difficult

:19:25. > :19:28.for the Conservatives? And we are seeing these incredible rumours

:19:29. > :19:36.coming out of places like Blaenau Gwent. We mentioned a potential

:19:37. > :19:48.recount. We are hearing it is extremely close. That is the same as

:19:49. > :19:54.99, isn't it? Plaid Cymru got about 5% of the votes, 5.5% in 2011, is

:19:55. > :20:06.that it would be edged ordinary if they are anywhere near. What we may

:20:07. > :20:11.see is a very localised shift. It will be interesting to know what the

:20:12. > :20:15.local themes will be in Blaenau Gwent. Everyone thought the

:20:16. > :20:24.challenge to Labour would be Ukip. Talking about that in the north-east

:20:25. > :20:28.wealth corner, it looks similar in percentage terms to what they were

:20:29. > :20:35.scoring in the general election last year. They look very much along the

:20:36. > :20:40.same kind of band. It is a very respectable performance, but it is

:20:41. > :20:45.not troubling the scorers in terms of winning constituencies, but will

:20:46. > :20:49.make an impact on the lists. Let us cross to Scotland now because we

:20:50. > :20:58.have pictures of Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader arriving at her

:20:59. > :21:06.Glasgow count to rapturous applause. This is what she had to say. I am

:21:07. > :21:11.expecting to have a stunning night here in Glasgow for the SNP. We are

:21:12. > :21:14.not so much beating Labour in Glasgow as replacing Labour in

:21:15. > :21:19.Glasgow. Obviously across the rest of the country we have seen

:21:20. > :21:26.spectacular results, increased majorities, increase share of the

:21:27. > :21:33.votes. It is early, but at this stage I am expecting a good night

:21:34. > :21:36.for the SNP. That is Nicola Sturgeon at the count in Swansea. Now for

:21:37. > :21:49.another declaration. Ladies and gentlemen, I am about to

:21:50. > :21:56.make the announcement for Swansea East.

:21:57. > :22:19.IQ Evans declared that the total number of votes given to each

:22:20. > :22:31.candidate was as follows. Mike Hedges, Welsh Labour, 10700 and 26.

:22:32. > :23:55.-- 10,726. Ukip, 3274. I give public notice that Mike

:23:56. > :24:00.Hedges is duly elected as the Assembly member for the Swansea East

:24:01. > :24:04.constituency. There we are. A very happy Mike

:24:05. > :24:10.Hedges accepting his position once again in Cardiff Bay for the

:24:11. > :24:17.constituency of Swansea East. The share of the vote then in Swansea is

:24:18. > :24:24.a whopping 52% the Labour and the 2nd-place for you keep, -- for Ukip,

:24:25. > :24:29.as they were in the general election last year. The Conservatives on 8th,

:24:30. > :24:39.lip them is on 8 and the Greens on 3%. A majority of 7452 for Labour.

:24:40. > :24:43.And the turnout there was 36%. We will quickly look at the change

:24:44. > :25:04.since 2011. It means a swing from Labour to Ukip

:25:05. > :25:11.of 11%. A quick word on that, Richard. Another good result for

:25:12. > :25:17.Labour going back to my earlier theme. Labour don't seem to be

:25:18. > :25:24.haemorrhaging votes. The Ukip vote is replicating what they did last

:25:25. > :25:32.year. A nice new story that everyone can buy into. They have the lowest

:25:33. > :25:37.turnout of 31%, but it was up to 36% it is not great, but it is in the

:25:38. > :25:42.right direction. Lots of parties could agree on this. Maybe it is a

:25:43. > :25:49.good place to start. The turnout going up is certainly something all

:25:50. > :25:55.my guests will agree on being a good thing. I have a couple of fresh

:25:56. > :26:05.faces so I should make some introductions. Joining us is Stephen

:26:06. > :26:16.Kinnock. Then there is the hard-core still here. We are short of the

:26:17. > :26:20.Conservative at the moment, but that will be rectified in due course.

:26:21. > :26:24.Stephen Kinnock, your reaction to the series of results we have seen

:26:25. > :26:29.so far. I think it is looking stunningly good for us and the

:26:30. > :26:32.Conservatives have signally failed in a number of the seats they have

:26:33. > :26:41.been targeting. It is a real should be to Carwyn's leadership who has

:26:42. > :26:47.been head and shoulders above anyone. It has played a massive role

:26:48. > :26:51.in delivering the results. I agree with Chris about the

:26:52. > :26:56.catastrophically that way the UK government has handled the steel

:26:57. > :27:02.crisis and that has played a major role which has converted into votes.

:27:03. > :27:07.So far, it is looking good. You were pushed hard in some of those key

:27:08. > :27:13.seats, the Vale of Clwyd for example. You say you think they are

:27:14. > :27:18.stunningly good results Labour. Is it not a bit early to be quite so

:27:19. > :27:28.optimistic? I'm a socialist you have to be optimistic. No, I think we

:27:29. > :27:42.have had the 1st Minister in the for 17 years and we have been under the

:27:43. > :27:46.microscope. -- First Minister. We should celebrate that, but there is

:27:47. > :27:50.a lot of hard work to go. I am seeing on the ticker tape that we

:27:51. > :27:57.might be holding Cardiff North. Llanelli is looking good. If those

:27:58. > :28:04.results come together, we could hold at 30. There is talk of a recount in

:28:05. > :28:10.Blaenau Gwent. We will put that to 1 side. Jim, what about your thoughts

:28:11. > :28:16.on Ukip's form in the far western mark it is good. You saw the Swansea

:28:17. > :28:22.East result. It has underlined what we have said all along. We are

:28:23. > :28:28.eating into the Labour Party support. It is solid. We are getting

:28:29. > :28:43.consistent scores, as we got in last year's election. With the

:28:44. > :28:49.Conservatives not doing very well, I'm trying to factor up what effect

:28:50. > :28:56.it will have on the distribution of the seats with the Conservatives

:28:57. > :29:02.looking as if they will fall short. In terms of the strategy, we have

:29:03. > :29:07.talked to night about who Ukip is targeting and talked about a lot

:29:08. > :29:14.about the Ukip challenge to Labour. In terms of who is in your sites, is

:29:15. > :29:21.Labour number 1 in your sites as the incoming party, or do you see Ukip

:29:22. > :29:23.as being an equal opportunities challenger on the right wing and

:29:24. > :29:35.left wing of the Conservatives? It is the Heino Kuhn effect. We are

:29:36. > :29:43.reaching other parties -- it is the Heineken effect. We are reaching

:29:44. > :29:49.parties other parties cannot reach. Are you though? Turnout has not gone

:29:50. > :30:02.up? Well, I contention is turnout is low. Is aptly the same -- exactly

:30:03. > :30:06.the same in Europe. What is hard for the other parties is we are

:30:07. > :30:13.genuinely taking votes from across the board. As I have said and as I

:30:14. > :30:17.will keep saying, our vote is solid. I will stop you there because it

:30:18. > :30:19.looks as if we have the result coming in. Wrexham, a big seats,

:30:20. > :30:49.this. SPEAKS WELSH iCal and Patterson

:30:50. > :30:53.being the returning officer at the selection, do hereby give notice the

:30:54. > :30:54.number of vote recorded for this election for each candidate is as

:30:55. > :31:18.follows... SPEAKS WELSH Welsh Conservative

:31:19. > :31:40.Party candidate Andrew Atkinson... Jeanette Bassford-Barton... Ukip...

:31:41. > :32:03.2393... Beryl Blackmore, Welsh Liberal

:32:04. > :32:27.Democrats... 1140. Alan Butterworth, Wales Green

:32:28. > :32:43.party... 411. Lesley Griffiths, Welsh Labour...

:32:44. > :33:34.7452. And I do hereby declare that Lesley

:33:35. > :33:37.Griffiths has been duly elected to serve as assembly member for the

:33:38. > :33:37.Wrexham constituency. APPLAUSE

:33:38. > :34:02.CHEERING there we are, Lesley Griffiths

:34:03. > :34:08.holding onto Wrexham. The Minister for communities and

:34:09. > :34:11.tackling poverty in the last government, staying in Wrexham

:34:12. > :34:26.despite talk of a strong challenge by the Conservatives. Giving her an

:34:27. > :34:32.majority of 1325 over the Conservatives. Changes since the

:34:33. > :34:36.last election... Labour down 8%, the Conservatives up by 4%, 40 Mac down

:34:37. > :34:52.3%, Ukip up 12%. Turnout in Wrexham was 39%. That

:34:53. > :35:00.means a swing from Labour to the Conservatives, over five and a half

:35:01. > :35:10.percent. And the result is in from Merthyr Tydfil... Let's bring that

:35:11. > :35:19.up... A Labour hold. Dawn Bowden, the former seat of Hugh Lewis, the

:35:20. > :35:25.former Education Minister standing down, 9763 boats, Ukip in second

:35:26. > :35:34.place. Plaid Cymru in third place, Brian Thomas... And the

:35:35. > :35:47.Conservatives, Elizabeth Simon, 1331, the Lib Dems, 1122 and the

:35:48. > :35:59.Green Party, 469, majority for Labour of 5486. And since 2011...

:36:00. > :36:08.Labour down 7%, on a turnout of 38%. Ukip up by 21%. Plaid Cymru up while

:36:09. > :36:16.9%, the Conservatives no change, Lib Dems down 7%, the Green Party up 2%.

:36:17. > :36:22.Richard... Labour doing very well. I am genuinely... Wrexham, Merthyr

:36:23. > :36:26.Tydfil, with the greatest of respect people there, it isn't the most

:36:27. > :36:32.interesting constituency. Wrexham was one of those... Politically,

:36:33. > :36:38.it's a beautiful place... With wonderful people but Wrexham was the

:36:39. > :36:45.one to watch. The Conservatives had a strong local candidate, well

:36:46. > :36:53.resourced, and you know, they pushed Lesley Griffiths close, having the

:36:54. > :36:58.majority, some were around that... Nick will check while I talk

:36:59. > :37:06.confidently... But actually, holding on relatively comfortably. It asks

:37:07. > :37:09.some pretty big questions about the Conservative campaign, fairly clear

:37:10. > :37:16.that the Conservatives had a bad national campaign, but we have had

:37:17. > :37:22.the idea, we have assumed that because they ran such a great ground

:37:23. > :37:25.game last year, and they have one constituencies by campaigning in

:37:26. > :37:31.some very clever ways, we have assumed they could replicate that

:37:32. > :37:36.pattern this time around. They certainly haven't done it in the

:37:37. > :37:41.north-east, we will see in other key constituencies but the north-east

:37:42. > :37:46.was prime territory for them. I think, Clwyd South is the one we

:37:47. > :37:50.haven't had yet, but we would not expect that to go, it seems as if

:37:51. > :37:55.Labour have seen off the challenge of the Conservatives in north-east

:37:56. > :37:59.Wales, on the constituency basis. In terms of the Conservative campaign

:38:00. > :38:05.Richard talked about, behind-the-scenes, what was it like?

:38:06. > :38:09.They have a lot of intelligence from a year ago, a lot of respect,

:38:10. > :38:13.frankly, from a lot of the opposition parties because of what

:38:14. > :38:16.he managed to achieve this time last year. Let's look at a count, I think

:38:17. > :38:50.that is Canavan... -- Caernarfon... SPEAKS WELSH he has been

:38:51. > :38:56.representing that seat since 2003... New faces hoping to represent... I

:38:57. > :39:04.think they are just finalising a couple of things from the stage...

:39:05. > :39:11.If it follows to plan and it goes to the former journalist, a County

:39:12. > :39:19.Council, the broad smile on her face, it would be a bit of a

:39:20. > :39:32.surprise if she had not won. This is not a particularly interesting

:39:33. > :39:37.results. While we are waiting, can I make account, I recount is likely

:39:38. > :39:48.incur filly and we are told that Plaid Cymru is challenging Labour...

:39:49. > :39:52.Pretty extraordinary development. A source suggesting that Labour have

:39:53. > :39:59.won by 600 votes in Blaenau Gwent... We haven't had the result, that is

:40:00. > :40:06.what our intelligence is suggesting. The recount in personally... They

:40:07. > :40:15.are remarkable, it makes for another question... -- the recount in

:40:16. > :40:18.Caerphilly... If they are making inroads into the valleys they can

:40:19. > :40:24.take a lot of pain elsewhere for that price. And it sure Rob Leanne

:40:25. > :40:31.Wood for a long time. I questioned a Welsh Labour source, asking, what is

:40:32. > :40:39.going on in Blaenau Gwent, the answer, good question. Nobody knows.

:40:40. > :40:43.This is what we saw in 99, the first election, a series of results, that

:40:44. > :40:51.part of the world, surprising everyone, including Plaid Cymru. No

:40:52. > :41:01.one talked about Blaenau Gwent... A recount in Caerphilly? Did they take

:41:02. > :41:04.it? They have done to 99. But this time, against a big name like

:41:05. > :41:10.Leighton Andrews? With a much improved Labour operation since 99,

:41:11. > :41:17.I thought it was unlikely. Let's see what is going on... Has he started

:41:18. > :41:20.with a declaration? There we go, they have started the declaration,

:41:21. > :41:25.but unfortunately we cannot hear it. We will go there as as soon as

:41:26. > :41:38.possible, they are shaking her hand, we can presume that she has one.

:41:39. > :41:56.Sian Gwenllian. The other thing which has been a constant so far,

:41:57. > :42:00.they will look a very long way away from winning anywhere but it

:42:01. > :42:05.reinforces the expectation that they will do well on the lists... That

:42:06. > :42:11.there will be a substantial Ukip block in the next assembly. Right,

:42:12. > :42:18.Newport East... Something happening in Newport. Let's go to the stage.

:42:19. > :42:24.We do that first in English and then able declare the result in Welsh.

:42:25. > :42:30.I'd be undersigned being the returning officer at the election

:42:31. > :42:39.for the Newport East constituency of the National Assembly of Wales...

:42:40. > :42:44.Held on the 5th of May 2016, hereby give notice that the number of votes

:42:45. > :42:58.recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows... Albert

:42:59. > :43:03.John Griffiths... 92 to nine. -- 9229.

:43:04. > :43:31.Paul Halliday... 1481. Munawar Mughal, 3768. Anthony Peterson...

:43:32. > :43:52.4333. Anthony Salkeld, 1386. Peter Varley,

:43:53. > :43:58.491. The number of ballot papers rejected, 441. I do hereby declare

:43:59. > :44:08.that the said John Griffiths is duly elected for the said constituency.

:44:09. > :44:12.CHEERING Bowls-macro there we have it. John

:44:13. > :44:20.Griffiths staying in Newport East, he has been an AM since 99, from

:44:21. > :44:28.Newport, a minister, of course, and will return to Cardiff Bay. Let's

:44:29. > :44:37.assess the change in this vote. Since 2011... Labour down 6%. Ukip

:44:38. > :44:45.up 21%. The Conservatives down 5%. Lib Dems down 12%, Plaid Cymru no

:44:46. > :44:58.change, the Green Party up 2%. Turnout 37%. The majority for Labour

:44:59. > :45:03.4896. A look at the swing... Labour to Ukip, 14%.

:45:04. > :45:11.We had better have a quick word, with someone just elected, and

:45:12. > :45:22.Jones, all smiles, in the Vale of Clwyd, congratulations. Happy to be

:45:23. > :45:26.going back? Yes, I am. I have lots of interesting ideas that I want to

:45:27. > :45:29.produce, to represent the Vale of Clwyd in the way I have done,

:45:30. > :45:34.hard-working and honest and it's been under the leadership of the

:45:35. > :45:38.great man in Carwyn Jones who has shown he can be the First Minister

:45:39. > :45:44.of Wales, he is a First Minister of Wales and I will be talking to him

:45:45. > :45:48.very soon on Monday, when we reconvene to talk about what we can

:45:49. > :45:52.do now to push the Vale of Clwyd on further, building on the successes

:45:53. > :45:58.of the last Labour government in the 21st century school buildings which

:45:59. > :46:02.resulted in a new school in Rhyl, investment on Royal promenade,

:46:03. > :46:06.flooding investment in the area and lots more I want to do, I will get

:46:07. > :46:11.act down to that of the weekend and we are going to see, I will

:46:12. > :46:14.represent the people of this area who have put their trust in me and I

:46:15. > :46:18.am honoured and privileged to be going back.

:46:19. > :46:29.Relieved though? The Conservatives were targeting the seats. What they

:46:30. > :46:34.a bit too close comfort? Well, any election, we fight for every votes

:46:35. > :46:38.and that is what me and my team have done. Last was a disappointment, but

:46:39. > :46:43.we have put that aside. We have gone out and given the people of kit with

:46:44. > :46:49.the message. I have talked to them and I think they have been

:46:50. > :47:01.interested in what I have to say. -- the people of the Vale of Clwyd. It

:47:02. > :47:06.seems you have seen of the threats right across the North East. Is that

:47:07. > :47:15.how it feels to you? It without like that when we have been out and about

:47:16. > :47:19.and we have been out and about extensively in the Vale of Clwyd. We

:47:20. > :47:29.have been offering support to each other and I was glad that my

:47:30. > :47:35.colleagues have been re-elected. It will be great to be back with

:47:36. > :47:45.friends, old and new. Congratulations on your win this

:47:46. > :47:51.evening. Labour, is the picture changing, given these successes of

:47:52. > :47:58.Labour? It is a sticky situation. Labour don't go out much or down

:47:59. > :48:03.much. It is a corridor of tedium between 27 and 30. These are very

:48:04. > :48:12.good results for Labour. We are seeing in the swing swings to Ukip.

:48:13. > :48:15.They don't really matter. It is the Conservative Labour relationship you

:48:16. > :48:20.need to look at in particular and what we are seeing their is even

:48:21. > :48:28.some of the seats were we have been assuming that the Conservatives were

:48:29. > :48:33.well-placed to do well, we are not seeing the kind of swings. Labour

:48:34. > :48:39.are getting votes in the right places. That is an uncanny trick for

:48:40. > :48:47.a political party. It is all looking very good. Another result is

:48:48. > :48:59.imminent. Gwyn Price is standing down. Candidates up on the stage. I,

:49:00. > :49:01.the returning officer declare that the total number of votes giving to

:49:02. > :49:08.each candidate was as follows... Lin Ackerman, Plaid Cymru, the party

:49:09. > :50:08.of Wales, Welsh Liberal Democrats 597. Rhianon

:50:09. > :50:21.Passmore, Welsh Labour, 10000 and 50. -- 10,000 50.

:50:22. > :50:51.Jess Smith, Ukip Wales, 4944. Paul Williams, Welsh Conservative Party,

:50:52. > :50:59.1000 745. -- 1745. Therefore I give public notice that Rhianon Passmore

:51:00. > :51:07.is duly elected as the Assembly member for this constituency.

:51:08. > :51:10.There we are then. Apologies for the pictures. If you were listening on

:51:11. > :51:17.radio, you would not have had any problems. That is going to Blaenau

:51:18. > :51:22.Gwent. We have been talking a lot about this. Potential for a recount

:51:23. > :51:26.according to some sources. The candidates are all there. It is more

:51:27. > :51:35.controversial than we thought. This is normally a rock-solid Labour

:51:36. > :51:39.seat. The AM is lining up on stage with a big smile on his face, but

:51:40. > :51:45.some of the other candidates are smiling as well. Can we read

:51:46. > :51:51.anything into this? The majority from 5 years ago was 9000. From what

:51:52. > :51:55.we are hearing it has been tighter and Plaid have been challenge. I

:51:56. > :52:11.think this is the result now. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We

:52:12. > :52:20.will now announce the result, starting in Welsh.

:52:21. > :52:34.Ayt, the returning officer for Blaenau Gwent declared that the

:52:35. > :52:50.total number of votes given to each candidate was as follows... Kevin

:52:51. > :53:07.Anthony Bouchier, Ukip Wales, the thousand 423. -- 3000 423.

:53:08. > :54:10.Brendan D'Cruz, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 300. Tracy Michelle West,

:54:11. > :54:39.1334. Therefore I give public notice that

:54:40. > :54:44.Alun Davies is duly elected for the Blaenau Gwent constituency. That is

:54:45. > :54:55.why Alun Davies was smiling. He'd just hangs onto Blaenau Gwent. His

:54:56. > :55:08.majority is down to 650. The result here in full:

:55:09. > :55:24.it means Labour are on 40% and Plaid Cymru are on 37%, Ukip on 16%. The

:55:25. > :55:29.Conservatives on 6% and the Liberal Democrats on 1%. Labour down 24%,

:55:30. > :55:37.that is almost a quarter. Plaid Cymru are up 31%. Ukip is up 16%,

:55:38. > :55:44.but I must stress they were not standing in many of the seats last

:55:45. > :55:48.time, so we have to be cautious with the figures. The swing, labour to

:55:49. > :56:26.Plaid Cymru, 28%. Let us look Candidates are lining up in Swansea

:56:27. > :56:33.for Swansea West. There we go, they are just checking the sound. They

:56:34. > :56:37.are all lined up. It is the former seat of Judi James, who is Labour,

:56:38. > :56:41.of course. They are just getting ready to make the declaration, so

:56:42. > :56:52.let us go to Swansea and see what is happening.

:56:53. > :57:13.Ayt, if you evidence, the returning officer for the Swansea West

:57:14. > :57:21.constituency, declared that the total number of votes given to each

:57:22. > :57:41.candidate was as follows... Christopher Holley Ashley, 2012.

:57:42. > :57:58.Rosie Irving, Ukip, 3058. Julie James, Welsh Labour, 9014. Brian

:57:59. > :58:04.Johnson, the Socialist Party of Great Britain, 76. Craig Lawton,

:58:05. > :58:36.Welsh Conservative Party, 3934. Doctor Dai Lloyd, Plaid Cymru,

:58:37. > :58:53.3225. Gareth David Tucker, Welsh Green Party, 883.

:58:54. > :59:01.Therefore I give public notice that Julie James is duly elected as the

:59:02. > :59:14.Assembly member for the Swansea West constituency. There we are. Julie

:59:15. > :59:17.James holding on in the seat of Swansea West, which has been Labour

:59:18. > :59:25.since the beginning of the National Assembly back in 1999. Home to 2

:59:26. > :59:36.universities. We have the result. Labour 9014. The turnout 41% and the

:59:37. > :59:43.majority 5080. Lots of activity on the stage in Clwyd South and in

:59:44. > :59:53.Wrexham. We will go to Wrexham and we are going to call Clwyd South. I

:59:54. > :59:57.think all the candidates are there. That must be Clwyd South because I

:59:58. > :00:09.can see Ken Skates on the left. The returning officer is about to speak.

:00:10. > :00:13.I, Helen Pattison, being the returning officer to give notice

:00:14. > :00:25.that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the said

:00:26. > :00:40.election is as follows... SPEAKS WELSH.

:00:41. > :01:12.Plaid Cymru at, 8631. -- Plaid Cymru. Simon Robert Morris Baines,

:01:13. > :01:27.Welsh Conservative Party, 4800 46 -- 4000 846.

:01:28. > :01:59.Duncan Rees... Wales Green party... 474.

:02:00. > :02:19.Aled Roberts... Welsh Liberal Democrats... 2289...

:02:20. > :03:06.And I hereby declare that Ken Skates has been duly elected to serve as an

:03:07. > :03:19.assembly member for the Clwyd South constituency. Let's go straight to

:03:20. > :03:24.Newport West... The result... Good morning, I am now going to declare

:03:25. > :03:35.the result for the Newport West constituency.

:03:36. > :03:41.I be undersigned being the returning officer for the Newport West

:03:42. > :03:49.constituency for the National Assembly... Held on the 5th of May

:03:50. > :03:53.2016 do hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for each

:03:54. > :04:09.candidate at the election is as follows... Pippa Bartolotti... 814.

:04:10. > :04:57.Bryant, 12100 and 57. Simon Coopey, 1645. Matthew Evans... 8042.

:04:58. > :05:05.Anthony William James Fearnley budding style... Michael Ford...

:05:06. > :05:25.3142. Gruff Meredith... 48. Liz Newton,

:05:26. > :05:34.880. The number of ballot papers rejected was as follows... 145. And

:05:35. > :05:39.I hereby declare that the said Jayne Bryant is duly elected for the said

:05:40. > :05:39.constituency. CHEERING

:05:40. > :05:55.APPLAUSE There we are, Newport West staying

:05:56. > :06:01.Labour, Jayne Bryant taking that. And there is a result, the

:06:02. > :06:02.confirmation... 12,157 for the Labour Party. The Conservatives,

:06:03. > :06:32.Matthew Evans on 8042... The turnout in Newport West was 45%,

:06:33. > :06:38.a majority of 4115, let's look at the change since last time. Labour

:06:39. > :06:49.down by 8%, the Conservatives 5%, Ukip up 14, Plaid Cymru down 1%.

:06:50. > :06:57.That means it's a swing from Labour to the Conservatives, one pointed

:06:58. > :07:01.percent. Cynon Valley, that result as in, let's look

:07:02. > :07:10.there we go, Vikki Howells winning, but the Labour Party, 9830. Gareth

:07:11. > :07:34.Griffiths for Plaid Cymru, 3836. Turnout was 38%, majority of 5994.

:07:35. > :07:40.Christine Chapman, standing down in Cynon Valley. I think we have a

:07:41. > :07:46.pattern developing... I think I can say something. What we are seeing,

:07:47. > :07:50.and these figures may not quite right, we are rushing to catch up

:07:51. > :07:56.but the results, Labour down around 7%, the Conservatives down around

:07:57. > :08:07.3%, Plaid Cymru up around 3%, the Lib Dems down 3% on what was not a

:08:08. > :08:09.great result back in 2011. Basically, the opinion poll

:08:10. > :08:15.conducted by Cardiff University and ITV looks about right, but this is

:08:16. > :08:22.the crucial thing, Labour at getting the votes in the right places. Just

:08:23. > :08:26.doing enough to see off the challenges, this is a really

:08:27. > :08:32.effective performance. The Newport West result was significant in this

:08:33. > :08:36.sense that our first marginal Labour Conservative head-to-head, Matthew

:08:37. > :08:41.Evans, the former leader of Newport Council 40 could challenge Labour.

:08:42. > :08:47.He has failed to significantly dent the Labour majority, the first

:08:48. > :08:52.relatively tight seat in South Wales, moving from north-east Wales,

:08:53. > :08:59.and it would appear that the trend we saw in north-east Wales has

:09:00. > :09:01.certainly been repeated... But this extraordinary outline in Blaenau

:09:02. > :09:08.Gwent and I need someone to explain to me why this link can be

:09:09. > :09:16.one-way... The circuit of Wales? Could it be something... It is

:09:17. > :09:23.genuinely extraordinary and I can give you no explanation, I am sorry.

:09:24. > :09:29.I have no idea. That is one of the points we had the making, lots of

:09:30. > :09:36.local issues, and I wonder where, for instance, places like Merthyr

:09:37. > :09:42.Tydfil, the Labour vote held up. Big investment from General dynamics and

:09:43. > :09:48.other companies... That kind of thing hasn't happened some margin

:09:49. > :09:52.Blaenau Gwent, I think the people there hope and think something will

:09:53. > :09:56.happen. Is there and other personal or local issue that we don't know

:09:57. > :10:02.about? It could be about the candidates. Such an outrider on

:10:03. > :10:08.everything else we have seen, this massive swing against Labour. To

:10:09. > :10:14.Plaid Cymru in a context... And Caerphilly... Let's see what happens

:10:15. > :10:19.there. Apart from that, this is excellent news for Labour, losing

:10:20. > :10:25.ground but they aren't not so bad that it is damaging. Let's see what

:10:26. > :10:33.the people on the sofa, are they dozing off? Not quite. Felicity...

:10:34. > :10:37.Quite a lot to digests since we visited your views last. Stephen

:10:38. > :10:44.Kinnock, I will come back to you, Labour doing very well. Your

:10:45. > :10:50.thoughts. It continues to be a good story, some strange results with

:10:51. > :10:54.Blaenau Gwent being an example but I think overall, what we are seeing is

:10:55. > :10:55.a strong performance. Thank you, candidates coming to the stage in

:10:56. > :11:05.Neath, let school there. This is the result for the Neath

:11:06. > :11:27.constituency. SPEAKS WELSH. I Stephen Phillips constituency

:11:28. > :11:30.returning officer for the Neath constituency declare that the total

:11:31. > :11:48.number of faults given to each candidate was as follows... Peter

:11:49. > :12:04.Crocker Jacks... 2179. Steve Hunt, independent, 2056. Frank Little,

:12:05. > :12:23.Welsh Liberal Democrats... 746. Alun Llywelyn... Plaid Cymru, 6545. My

:12:24. > :12:36.list Jeremy -- Jeremy Miles... 9468. Richard Prichard, Ukip... 3780. Lisa

:12:37. > :12:42.Rapado, Wales Green party... 589. I give public notice that Jeremy Miles

:12:43. > :12:51.is duly elected as the Assembly member for the Neath constituency.

:12:52. > :13:11.CHEERING APPLAUSE

:13:12. > :13:21.We are about to make the declaration for the constituency...

:13:22. > :13:29.I am Jeremy Parodi is, constituency returning officer... This will

:13:30. > :13:37.include the Welsh translation. If we are ready... The constituency

:13:38. > :13:42.returning officer... But the National Assembly of Wales. I do

:13:43. > :13:50.hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for each

:13:51. > :14:01.candidate is as follows. -- the number of faults. Petra Haig,

:14:02. > :14:10.Wales Green party... 680. Sarah Burgess... Welsh Liberal

:14:11. > :14:19.Democrats... 781. 6892. Mike Priestley, Welsh

:14:20. > :14:55.Labour... 6039. Therefore I declare that the

:14:56. > :14:56.following candidate is elected, Janet Finch-Saunders...

:14:57. > :15:01.CHEERING APPLAUSE

:15:02. > :15:07.So... There we are, Janet Finch-Saunders

:15:08. > :15:12.holding Aberconwy for the Conservatives, apologies for the

:15:13. > :15:15.sound at the Montgomeryshire declaration, that is why we left

:15:16. > :15:18.that halfway through, I don't know about you but I could not hear a

:15:19. > :15:23.word they were saying, we will bring you details about that shortly.

:15:24. > :15:28.Stephen Kinnock... Sorry, I interrupted you to go to the Neath

:15:29. > :15:32.result, you were saying... I think a great performance, clearly our share

:15:33. > :15:36.of the vote has gone down, we have done enough in a lot of very poor

:15:37. > :15:39.ten seats to see the challenges off and that gives us another five years

:15:40. > :15:44.to build in government and continue delivering for the people of Wales.

:15:45. > :15:50.Disappointing night for the Conservatives, the way things are

:15:51. > :15:56.shaping up? We have a little way to go yet. But all your target seats in

:15:57. > :16:01.the Northeast... I am disappointed with Wrexham, I thought we would do

:16:02. > :16:06.better than that. But certainly Jan has held on, that is good news.

:16:07. > :16:11.Yes... It is a small team. Since the general election last year, people

:16:12. > :16:17.from other parties have spoken to me with a mixture of fear and

:16:18. > :16:20.admiration about the campaign strategy that your party employed

:16:21. > :16:24.last year and again, it was being spoken of in pretty hallowed terms

:16:25. > :16:27.right up to tonight in some of the target seats, people feeling

:16:28. > :16:30.unsettled about the way you were targeting. What went wrong this

:16:31. > :16:45.time? Comparator last time? To be quite frank, I cannot comment

:16:46. > :16:51.on the North East. It is an individual thing. It is down to the

:16:52. > :16:53.local candidate. We were honestly successful in Gower last time and

:16:54. > :17:01.hopefully we might be successful tonight. We will see in due course.

:17:02. > :17:07.It really is an individual thing, I think, and I don't quite understand

:17:08. > :17:15.where you are coming from when you say people are concerned about the

:17:16. > :17:20.way the targeted... Not concerned, impressed. They were not being

:17:21. > :17:25.critical, they were being envious of the way the strategy worked for you

:17:26. > :17:29.last year. It took everyone by surprise, you had roaring results

:17:30. > :17:34.and people were nervous this time about how the strategy would work.

:17:35. > :17:38.They had good cause to be I suppose, but it has not translated so far

:17:39. > :17:47.into the results we would have liked to have seen. What are your thoughts

:17:48. > :17:53.so far on Plaid's performance? You are up on vote share, but not by

:17:54. > :18:02.much. It is early days. The North East has not been 1 of our

:18:03. > :18:08.strongholds. The early phasing will not be easy in any event. Another

:18:09. > :18:16.point to bear in mind in general, touching on what Warren was saying

:18:17. > :18:20.about the local campaigns, it in Wales people get their information

:18:21. > :18:24.from London-based newspapers. Most of the news they get is from the

:18:25. > :18:31.London centric BBC and therefore a lot of the campaign is either local

:18:32. > :18:41.or determined by UK wide factors. The instance, I congratulate Labour.

:18:42. > :18:46.I think the Labour Party in Wales has worked well. Most of the debate

:18:47. > :18:54.is about what the UK Government is doing or not doing. That has not

:18:55. > :19:01.helped the Conservatives, just as the infighting on the EU issue. I'm

:19:02. > :19:08.not sure the anti-Semitism with Corbyn has a big factor in Wells,

:19:09. > :19:16.but nevertheless, there is an air war. Take our result with Nigel

:19:17. > :19:27.Copner. I'm sad he did not win, but he is and able candidate. I'm going

:19:28. > :20:01.to stop you. We have a declaration. I, being the deputy constituency

:20:02. > :20:07.returning officer at the election held on Thursday the 5th of May 20

:20:08. > :20:10.16th, hereby give notice that the number of votes counted each

:20:11. > :20:22.candidate at the election is as follows. Welsh Liberal Democrats,

:20:23. > :20:44.916. Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales, 9566. The Welsh

:20:45. > :21:07.Conservatives, 3160. The Wells Green Party, -- the Wales Green Party,

:21:08. > :21:23.743. Welsh Labour, 2443. UK Independence Party commie 2149. --

:21:24. > :21:34.UK Independence Party, 2149. I hereby declared that Dafydd

:21:35. > :21:47.Elis-Thomas has been duly elected. Dafydd Elis-Thomas elected once

:21:48. > :21:52.again brought Dwyfor Meirionnydd -- for Dwyfor Meirionnydd. We have had

:21:53. > :21:59.a flurry of results, so let us go through a view of them in the tail.

:22:00. > :22:02.Let us go back to Aberconwy will this all Janet Bean Saunders

:22:03. > :22:19.re-elected for the Conservative Party. A vote of 5 to 5%. -- of 35%.

:22:20. > :22:26.A proper 3-way marginal this 1. Turnout of 49% which gives her a

:22:27. > :22:33.majority of 754. We also had Montgomeryshire. The sound was very

:22:34. > :22:41.poor, so I've will run you through the full

:22:42. > :23:17.There was a turnout of 40% and a majority for Russell George of 3339.

:23:18. > :23:29.It does take a look at Neath. There we go. Gwenda Thomas standing down,

:23:30. > :23:36.so Jeremy Miles the new candidate for Labour. Plaid Cymru in 2nd

:23:37. > :23:48.place, Ukip 3rd and Conservatives in 4th place. Now we are going to get

:23:49. > :23:58.another result. Kirsty Williams is on the stage... No, we are not

:23:59. > :24:04.seeing it. We are not going to the results. We saw the pictures, but no

:24:05. > :24:06.1 else did. On radio you certainly did not hear it, so all good. I

:24:07. > :24:17.didn't see it either. I give notice that the number of

:24:18. > :24:38.votes recorded the each candidate is as follows...

:24:39. > :25:32.Grenville Ham, Green Party, 697. Gary David Price, Welsh Conservative

:25:33. > :26:30.Party, 7728. Thomas Anthony Hargrave Turton, Ukip

:26:31. > :26:43.Wales, 2161. Kirsty Williams, Welsh Liberal

:26:44. > :26:54.Democrats, 15800 and 98. A big majority. Let's go straight to

:26:55. > :26:56.Aberavon on. The total number of votes given to each candidate is as

:26:57. > :27:08.follows. Glenda Marie Davis, Ukip, 3119. Bethan Jenkins,

:27:09. > :27:54.Plaid Cymru and, 4176. David Francis Jenkins, Conservatives, 1342. David

:27:55. > :28:00.Rees, 10500 and 78. I give public notice that David Rees is duly

:28:01. > :28:12.elected as even the sensitive for Aberavon. -- as the representative.

:28:13. > :28:41.The total number of votes... David Rees carries on as the AM for

:28:42. > :28:44.Aberavon. Let us go back to that big result for Kirsty Williams in Brecon

:28:45. > :28:53.and Radnorshire. Let's hear what she is saying. I don't want to keep

:28:54. > :29:00.people long because people have had a long night, but could I begin by

:29:01. > :29:04.thanking the deputy returning officer, Sandra Matthews and the

:29:05. > :29:10.electoral staff at Powys County Council and everyone here this

:29:11. > :29:14.evening for the professional way the election has been carried out. Can I

:29:15. > :29:22.thank my agents and the campaign team. They are like my 2nd family

:29:23. > :29:28.and I am so grateful to the efforts all have you had made to achieve

:29:29. > :29:34.this outstanding result this evening. It is the best ever result

:29:35. > :29:38.that I have had in Brecon and Radnorshire and that is down to the

:29:39. > :29:48.hard work of a dedicated campaign team. I would also like to thank my

:29:49. > :29:51.family, especially my family and -- my husband and mother-in-law, who

:29:52. > :30:00.keep things going when I am out pounding the pavements. Most of all

:30:01. > :30:06.I would like to thank the people of Brecon and Radnorshire. It has been

:30:07. > :30:09.my greatest privilege to represent them in the 1st 17 years of

:30:10. > :30:16.devolution and it will be a continued privilege to do so over

:30:17. > :30:22.the next 5 years. This is an amazing constituency, for its Iran and

:30:23. > :30:29.mental -- well-known for its environmental beauty. I suspect we

:30:30. > :30:34.will have the highest turnout of any constituency again and I am so proud

:30:35. > :30:37.of that, and I am proud of the community that are willing to come

:30:38. > :30:41.up in their hundreds if not thousands to protest against the ill

:30:42. > :30:49.thought through educational proposals in this county. I stand

:30:50. > :30:55.shoulder to shoulder... I stand shoulder to shoulder with the people

:30:56. > :31:00.of Brecon and Radnorshire, with those communities and with their

:31:01. > :31:09.campaign. It is a long night for my party. 12 months ago we suffered a

:31:10. > :31:14.terrible set of election results in Wales and across the UK. It will

:31:15. > :31:19.take a long time to rebuild the party, but I'm really proud that

:31:20. > :31:22.that rebuild begins here in the constituency of Brecon and

:31:23. > :31:36.Radnorshire. Thank you. A very happy Kirsty Williams. Huge

:31:37. > :31:49.result, 52%, billable Democrats... Labour on 9%, Plaid Cymru 9%. --

:31:50. > :31:56.Liberal Democrats. Turnout 56%, majority of 8170.

:31:57. > :32:08.I think the technical phrase we use is stonking... Absolutely... This is

:32:09. > :32:14.a constituency, after all, the Liberal Democrats lost last year.

:32:15. > :32:20.The turnout has gone up again. Her majority increasing. A stunning

:32:21. > :32:29.personal vindication for her. A difficult night for her party, but

:32:30. > :32:33.the personal... Let's go to Ceredigion. We expect the result is,

:32:34. > :33:14.here is the returning officer. I, Bronwen Morgan, the constituency

:33:15. > :33:20.returning officer at the election of a member to serve in the National

:33:21. > :33:24.Assembly for Wales, Kira digging constituency, held on the 5th of May

:33:25. > :33:27.20 16. Do hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for

:33:28. > :33:34.each candidate at the said election is as follows... Ayes Kira digging.

:33:35. > :33:47.Felix Aubel... Welsh Conservative... 2075. Elizabeth Evans, Welsh Liberal

:33:48. > :34:21.Democrats... 9600 and four. Gethin James...

:34:22. > :34:36.Ukip... 2605. Elin Jones... Plaid Cymru...

:34:37. > :35:13.Iwan Wyn Jones... 1902. Brian Dafydd Williams, Welsh Green party, 1223.

:35:14. > :35:28.The number of ballot papers rejected 99.

:35:29. > :35:37.And I hereby declare that Elin Jones has been duly elected as assembly

:35:38. > :35:45.member for the Kerry Dickey and constituency.

:35:46. > :36:00.Elin Jones remaining as the AM for Ceredigion. Increasing on the

:36:01. > :36:03.majority in 2011, taking the constituency, 12,014 votes, the

:36:04. > :36:12.turnout 56%. Rural Wales boding well. We may actually see an

:36:13. > :36:18.increased turnout overall. There are signs... There we go, by the way, we

:36:19. > :36:23.hear there is now an official recount in Llanelli, fewer than 350

:36:24. > :36:29.votes between Plaid Cymru and labour, interesting times. Let's

:36:30. > :36:32.look at what is going on in the Rhondda... Another big fight, to

:36:33. > :36:39.candidates, great enemies, politically. What I they talking

:36:40. > :36:55.about? Who is good lip lip-reading? We cannot quite see. That is not a

:36:56. > :37:00.cheap date... Even, for 30 AM in the morning... That is below the belt.

:37:01. > :37:03.Let's go to Kirsty Williams, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, we

:37:04. > :37:09.spoke to you earlier. You have got your seat back with an increased

:37:10. > :37:13.majority, you must be thrilled? It's a great result, the best result I

:37:14. > :37:20.have ever achieved in Brecon and Radnorshire in terms of a majority

:37:21. > :37:22.and share of the vote, a massive turnaround for forging tear in

:37:23. > :37:27.Brecon and Radnorshire after the devastating loss of the Westminster

:37:28. > :37:35.seat last year. A huge personal endorsement? I don't know about

:37:36. > :37:39.that, I'm just absolutely delighted with the result, it's better than I

:37:40. > :37:43.could have hoped for at the start of the campaign and it's the best

:37:44. > :37:47.result we have ever achieved. You are clearly heading back to Cardiff

:37:48. > :37:54.Bay, how many colleagues do you think you will have? I have been

:37:55. > :38:00.here in my count, I happened been watching what has been going on

:38:01. > :38:04.across Wales. We knew it would be a difficult set of elections for the

:38:05. > :38:08.Welsh Liberal Democrats, coming so quickly after the devastating

:38:09. > :38:14.results of last year. We will have to see as the night goes on, what

:38:15. > :38:21.happens. But I am very proud that we have been able to achieve such a

:38:22. > :38:26.great victory. And we will watch carefully as the night unfold. After

:38:27. > :38:34.a very difficult period for your party, to bounce back and be that

:38:35. > :38:39.resilient, what keeps you going? What keeps me going is an absolute

:38:40. > :38:45.belief in the core values of my party. And the commitment that my

:38:46. > :38:54.party has two delivering for all of Wales. And delivering a great public

:38:55. > :38:56.service, whether that's fantastic education opportunities for

:38:57. > :39:03.children, better health care, stronger economy, it is that desire

:39:04. > :39:07.to do that that keeps me going. And to be able to represent the people

:39:08. > :39:11.of Brecon and Radnorshire and stand shoulder to shoulder with them in

:39:12. > :39:17.the campaigns we fight locally. That is what gets me out of bed. Time for

:39:18. > :39:25.bed now, I am sure, but Kirsty Williams, thank you. Let's go to

:39:26. > :39:28.Clwyd West for a declaration. I, the constituency returning officer for

:39:29. > :39:31.the Clwyd West constituency declare the total number of votes given to

:39:32. > :40:03.each candidate was as follows. Victor Babu... Liberal Democrats...

:40:04. > :40:16.831. David Edwards... Ukip... Plaid Cymru, 2985. Llyr Gruffydd... Plaid

:40:17. > :40:47.Cymru... Julian Mahy, Wales Green party, by

:40:48. > :41:03.thousand 65. Darren Millar, Welsh Conservatives, Jo Thomas, Welsh

:41:04. > :41:09.Labour, 5246. I declare that the following candidate is elected...

:41:10. > :41:12.Darren David Millar. CHEERING

:41:13. > :41:17.APPLAUSE Darren Millar staying as the

:41:18. > :41:18.assembly member or Clwyd West, let's go to Caerphilly...

:41:19. > :41:51.For a result. I, the constituency returning

:41:52. > :41:53.officer for the Caerphilly constituency declared the total

:41:54. > :42:09.number of votes to each candidate is as follows... Aladdin Ayesh, Welsh

:42:10. > :42:31.Liberal Democrats... 386. Andrew Creak, Wales Green party... 770.

:42:32. > :42:36.Hefin David, Welsh Labour, 9583. CHEERING

:42:37. > :42:45.APPLAUSE Sam Gould, Ukip...

:42:46. > :43:00.By thousand 954. CHEERING

:43:01. > :43:13.Jane Pratt, Welsh Conservatives... 2412. Lindsay Whittle, Plaid

:43:14. > :43:29.Cymru... 8009. CHEERING

:43:30. > :43:38.Apologies for the sound, Labour holding Caerphilly but we go

:43:39. > :43:48.straight to the gallery... SPEAKS WELSH.

:43:49. > :43:58.I hear Evans, deputy constituency returning officer for the Gabba

:43:59. > :44:04.constituency declared that the total number of faults given to each

:44:05. > :44:27.candidate is as follows... Colin Beckett, Ukip... 3300.

:44:28. > :44:45.Abi Cherry-Hamer, 7037. Rebecca Evans... Welsh Labour...

:44:46. > :44:57.Lyndon Jones... Welsh Conservative...

:44:58. > :45:28.10100 and 53. Sheila Kingston-Jones... Welsh Liberal

:45:29. > :45:42.Democrats... 1033. Harri Roberts... 2982.

:45:43. > :45:49.Therefore I give public notice that Rebecca Evans is duly elected as the

:45:50. > :46:01.assembly member for the Gabba constituency. -- Gower constituency.

:46:02. > :46:05.Rebecca Evans elected in Gower. Edwina Hart, prominent Labour

:46:06. > :46:09.member, now minister, standing down, Rebecca Evans, Eddie Leie Minister

:46:10. > :46:16.for agriculture in the last government holding onto that seat.

:46:17. > :46:20.11900 and 82. It was a Conservative game, back in the last general

:46:21. > :47:07.election. Byron Davies, who is in the studio, took that. There we go.

:47:08. > :47:14.This is a disappointing evening for the Conservatives. They have not

:47:15. > :47:18.made the games they have wanted to. They have pushed Labour, but they

:47:19. > :47:24.have not come close in the end, so we are now looking at Cardiff North

:47:25. > :47:30.and the Vale of Glamorgan as the only potential gains of the evening,

:47:31. > :47:34.but these kinds of, the Vale of Glamorgan looks difficult on these

:47:35. > :47:44.kinds of votes and maybe only possibly Cardiff. Rumours of a very

:47:45. > :47:49.high turnout in Cardiff North. I have not seen it confirmed, but even

:47:50. > :47:51.higher potentially than Ceredigion and Brecon and Radnorshire. It could

:47:52. > :47:57.mean Labour are in that race as well. It is a disappointing evening

:47:58. > :48:06.for the Conservatives. Let us talk to the man who did take Gower from

:48:07. > :48:10.the Conservatives in year ago. The disappointing result. What is

:48:11. > :48:15.your analysis of what went wrong? I don't know. We have a good local

:48:16. > :48:23.candidate. I don't know, I think possibly some of the issues that

:48:24. > :48:27.have been mentioned. We had quite a few of the Port Talbot steel

:48:28. > :48:31.workers. That might have had an influence on it. It is

:48:32. > :48:35.disappointing, although I have to say that on the doorstep these

:48:36. > :48:39.issues that have been happening the other end of the M4 did not come up.

:48:40. > :48:46.Where you confident going into this evening? I am an eternal optimist,

:48:47. > :48:51.but I did think we had an opportunity here to take PC at the

:48:52. > :48:57.Assembly. Clearly with that sort of majority, 1800, it has worked out

:48:58. > :49:02.quite differently. Indeed. Your share of the vote compared to

:49:03. > :49:09.previous elections only 4%. You did not have the breakthrough in terms

:49:10. > :49:16.of getting close, as you did with a couple of the seats in the North

:49:17. > :49:20.East. And also Brecon and Radnorshire you did not manage to

:49:21. > :49:25.get. You agree this is looking disappointing? Brecon and

:49:26. > :49:30.Radnorshire is different. Kirsty is a very competent and effective

:49:31. > :49:36.Assembly member and Armand that -- and on that basis I am not surprised

:49:37. > :49:40.she has been returned. Chris Davies, who is a member of Parliament, is

:49:41. > :49:48.also affected. Ireland Davis, thank you.

:49:49. > :49:54.Bethan, back to you. That is go back to some of the results that happened

:49:55. > :50:02.in a result. Caerphilly had bad sound, so let us talk you through

:50:03. > :50:14.the results. Labour took it with 35% of the vote. Plaid Cymru 30%, Ukip

:50:15. > :50:27.22%, the Conservatives 9%, the Greens 3% and the Lib Dems 1%. It is

:50:28. > :50:35.extremely close. It is a bit of? -- it is a big question. Labour have

:50:36. > :50:41.been hit, I suspect, by Ukip. Plaid Cymru were not that close, but it

:50:42. > :50:53.was a decent result for them. Caerphilly was in 5000 majority

:50:54. > :50:57.brought down to 1800. The possibility for Plaid in the Rhondda

:50:58. > :51:04.is you have Ukip potentially taking a chunk out of the Labour vote.

:51:05. > :51:13.Leanne Wood is a high-profile local girl. Certainly now it is possible

:51:14. > :51:17.to envisage that... Had an insurance policy, but might not have needed

:51:18. > :51:24.it, but we will see. We are not sure what time it will come through, but

:51:25. > :51:25.it sounds close. Let us look at another result that we whizzed

:51:26. > :51:49.through. Clwyd West. The majority for Darren Millar of

:51:50. > :51:53.5063. That is worth pausing over because what is interesting about

:51:54. > :52:03.Clwyd West if it was held by Labour not so long ago. Gareth Thomas, so 1

:52:04. > :52:08.so forth. We them struggling really in that seats, not coming anywhere

:52:09. > :52:11.close. There is an efficiency about the way Labour are stacking up the

:52:12. > :52:16.votes. Where they need them, they get them. If they continue with that

:52:17. > :52:22.trend, it will be an effective night. It has not been a great night

:52:23. > :52:29.for the Conservatives. Clwyd West, Aberconwy. They have put in some

:52:30. > :52:38.decent results with a comfortable win for Darren Millar. I'm sure they

:52:39. > :52:46.will be pleased with the victory after a tight challenge from Plaid.

:52:47. > :52:50.It is a swing from the Conservatives to Plaid Cymru in Clwyd West. We

:52:51. > :53:01.will hear from Darren Millar shortly. We have just run through

:53:02. > :53:07.his result. Can you hear us? Yes. Congratulations. You are back. How

:53:08. > :53:09.do you feel about your results are more importantly as well, the

:53:10. > :53:18.performance of your party across Wales? I am absolutely delighted

:53:19. > :53:23.with the result we have achieved in Clwyd West. To return with an

:53:24. > :53:26.increased majority is a huge privilege. I have seen the results

:53:27. > :53:30.coming in from other parts of the country and it is clear we have had

:53:31. > :53:36.a strong Conservative performance. It is not surprising. We have had an

:53:37. > :53:40.effective team in the Assembly over the past few years and we will go

:53:41. > :53:44.from strength to strength. I'm looking forward to the other results

:53:45. > :53:48.that will trickle in. You have not taken Gower or the Vale of Clwyd.

:53:49. > :53:52.There must be some disappointment that you have not seen the

:53:53. > :53:58.breakthrough you made last year in the general election? Of course it

:53:59. > :54:02.is disappointing when you fail to win seats that you have 1 at the

:54:03. > :54:07.general election, of course it is, but you must not underestimate what

:54:08. > :54:11.we have achieved. When you look at the reduction in the majority in the

:54:12. > :54:16.Vale of Clwyd, we had a hard-working candidate who pounded the streets

:54:17. > :54:22.every single day from many weeks. You fell to underestimate the

:54:23. > :54:28.enormous achievement it is to get that majority down from over 4000 2

:54:29. > :54:33.several hundred. It's a phenomenal achievement. And if we look at the

:54:34. > :54:39.detail of your result, your percentage is down 2%. Ukip is up

:54:40. > :54:44.11%. Didn't stand quite in the same election at the same time, but the

:54:45. > :54:50.threat of Ukip in the North East, did you feel it could claim a fuse

:54:51. > :54:57.scalps, or not in the regions, on the listing will? 11% is

:54:58. > :55:04.significantly under what the polls were predicting for Ukip. So I think

:55:05. > :55:10.it is a disappointing night for the Ukip constituency candidate, but yes

:55:11. > :55:15.clearly, the people Wales have an appetite to see some Ukip Assembly

:55:16. > :55:21.members and the Senate will have to cope with different political

:55:22. > :55:26.arrangement in the future. We will have to see how things pan out.

:55:27. > :55:32.Thank you for joining us. That does go straight to Nicola Sturgeon who

:55:33. > :55:38.has been re-elected as the MSP for Glasgow 's south side. And I also

:55:39. > :55:43.take the opportunity to thank my fellow candidates for a friendly and

:55:44. > :55:52.civilised campaign will stop I want to thank in particular my awesome

:55:53. > :55:58.campaign team, led by the even more awesome Marie Hunter, my election

:55:59. > :56:05.agent. All campaign teams of all parties in all constituencies do a

:56:06. > :56:12.tremendous job and work incredibly hard, but the campaign team of our

:56:13. > :56:19.party leader who spends much of her time visiting other constituencies

:56:20. > :56:23.in other parts of the country carry a particular responsibility. My

:56:24. > :56:28.campaign team has been absolutely outstanding. I owe them and enormous

:56:29. > :56:37.debt of gratitude. You all know who you are. Thank you from the bottom

:56:38. > :56:43.of my heart. I want to thank the voters of Glasgow south side for

:56:44. > :56:52.placing their trust in me. There is no greater privilege than 2

:56:53. > :56:58.represent people in our national parliament and I pledge to night

:56:59. > :57:03.that I will work every single day to ensure that every person, every

:57:04. > :57:08.community in Glasgow south side has the strong representation that they

:57:09. > :57:13.need and deserve in the Scottish parliament. I also want to thank the

:57:14. > :57:19.people of this great city of Glasgow. I have to say, if you had

:57:20. > :57:25.told me when I was a teenager starting up in politics that 1 day

:57:26. > :57:31.the SNP would win every constituency in the city of Glasgow, not in 1

:57:32. > :57:35.election, but in 2 elections, I would scarcely have been able to

:57:36. > :57:40.believe it, but it looks as if that is what we are going to do here this

:57:41. > :57:42.evening and it makes me proud to see the SNP represent the city I am so

:57:43. > :58:02.proud to call my home. And let me... Let me also with great

:58:03. > :58:09.humility thank the people of Scotland for placing their trust in

:58:10. > :58:14.me and in the SNP. There are many results still to be declared this

:58:15. > :58:22.evening, but what is now beyond doubt is that the SNP has won a 3rd

:58:23. > :58:25.consecutive Scottish Parliament election. That has never been done

:58:26. > :58:37.before in the history of the Scottish Parliament. We have to

:58:38. > :58:43.night... We have to night made history. It is a vote of confidence

:58:44. > :58:53.in the record in government of the SNP and it is a vote of trust in the

:58:54. > :58:58.SNP to lead our country forward. We in the SNP will always stand up for

:58:59. > :59:07.Scotland Antoninus Scotland has stood with us. Nicola Sturgeon then.

:59:08. > :59:12.Leader of the SNP and, of course, re-elected there as the MSP for

:59:13. > :59:19.Glasgow south side. Now, things moving very thickly in the Rhondda.

:59:20. > :59:26.Our reporter Carl Roberts is there. What are Plaid sources telling you

:59:27. > :59:31.now, Karl? They are giving me a big thumbs up. They think they have 1.

:59:32. > :59:36.The result is imminent here. Some glum faces on the Labour side. If I

:59:37. > :59:41.was a betting man, which I am not, I would think that Plaid Cymru are

:59:42. > :59:48.going to take the Rhondda, although we will not hear that officially.

:59:49. > :59:55.They look over the moon. This is a seat they won in 1999, which was a

:59:56. > :00:01.shock. Leighton Andrews 1 this seat a few years ago with over 60% of the

:00:02. > :00:05.vote. We have seen Plaid Cymru do well in Blaenau Gwent and

:00:06. > :00:08.Caerphilly. The strong suggestion is that they have done well in the

:00:09. > :00:14.Rhondda and the count is imminent. I can hear the returning officer

:00:15. > :00:18.calling the candidates in. The official declaration is imminent, so

:00:19. > :00:22.I will get out of the way. We will line up the camera and get

:00:23. > :00:30.onto the count, but thank you very much. It sounds as if it has gone to

:00:31. > :00:35.Plaid Cymru. While we wait for the count, but talk about the pozz

:00:36. > :00:41.adventure campaign. Leanne Wood has been on network television. It is

:00:42. > :00:45.not the 3rd thing she says, it is the 2nd or 3rd. I am from the

:00:46. > :00:54.Rhondda and I represent the Rhondda. That must have had an impact. Many

:00:55. > :01:00.people know about the local connection. Because she is the

:01:01. > :01:05.leader of the party, she has been physically out of constituency and

:01:06. > :01:12.Leighton Andrews has been able to plant in self. I am still finding

:01:13. > :01:16.this hard to believe. It would be an extraordinary result if it is

:01:17. > :01:21.confirmed. Yes, there are advantages, but Karl mentioned that

:01:22. > :01:29.Plaid won the seat in 1999. They won it from nowhere against a very

:01:30. > :01:39.decrepit Labour Party organisation. Since 1999, this has become 1 of the

:01:40. > :01:43.most efficient labour organisations. Leighton Andrews is energetic. This

:01:44. > :01:56.is a well machine and if she has managed to win... It will be a huge

:01:57. > :02:02.scalp. As Nick pointed out, Leighton Andrews's majority was around 60%

:02:03. > :02:10.last time. Plaid need a 17% of swing.

:02:11. > :02:15.We will get confirmation, they are on the stage, Leanne Wood looking

:02:16. > :02:24.extremely happy. The result from the Rhondda... I, the undersigned, being

:02:25. > :02:29.the constituency returning officer at the election for the National

:02:30. > :02:36.Assembly of Wales, for the Rhondda constituency held on the 5th of May

:02:37. > :02:38.2016 do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each

:02:39. > :03:02.candidate at the election is as follows. SPEAKS WELSH.

:03:03. > :03:20.Leighton Andrews... Welsh Labour... 8432.

:03:21. > :03:51.Maria Hill... Welsh Conservatives... 528. Pat Matthews... Wales Green

:03:52. > :04:01.party... 259. Rhys Taylor... Welsh Liberal

:04:02. > :04:19.Democrats... 173. Leanne Wood... Plaid Cymru... 11,800

:04:20. > :04:21.91. CHEERING

:04:22. > :04:34.APPLAUSE The number of ballot papers rejected

:04:35. > :04:40.was as follows... Want of official Mark... None.

:04:41. > :04:57.Voting for more candidates than entitled to... 44. Writing or mark

:04:58. > :05:00.by which vote could be identified... Leanne Wood taking the Rhondda with

:05:01. > :05:06.a big smile, the leader of Plaid Cymru, Leighton Andrews looking

:05:07. > :05:10.extremely downbeat. We will stay with this in the Rhondda so we can

:05:11. > :05:15.hear the speech from Leanne Wood, she is just looking at now, getting

:05:16. > :05:20.the paper out of her jacket, ready to address the crowd. She took a

:05:21. > :05:27.gamble, to out an insurance policy, but clearly the night she will not

:05:28. > :05:30.need this. She will now become constituency member of the National

:05:31. > :05:36.Assembly and here she is... Making her way to the podium. Waving at the

:05:37. > :05:45.crowd and off she goes. To address people left in the count. Thank you

:05:46. > :05:50.very much to all of the county agents, the returning officer, the

:05:51. > :05:55.police officers, my team, my agent, Darren Jones, my campaign manager,

:05:56. > :06:00.Alan Cox and all of you who have done such a fantastic job to get us

:06:01. > :06:05.to this point. A new dawn is about to break in Wales, here in the

:06:06. > :06:12.Rhondda, and new dawn has already broken. People have voted for

:06:13. > :06:18.change. It's a great honour for anyone to be able to represent their

:06:19. > :06:24.home constituency. And I am truly grateful to everyone in the Rhondda

:06:25. > :06:30.who has given me this mandate to serve as their assembly member. I

:06:31. > :06:38.make a commitment to night to serve all, whether they backed Plaid Cymru

:06:39. > :06:41.in this election or not. And I promise to shout loud for every

:06:42. > :06:51.single one of our communities here in the Rhondda. People have voted

:06:52. > :06:56.for hope, people have voted to end the decline in the valleys, they

:06:57. > :07:01.want us all to pull together, to turn around our challenges. And

:07:02. > :07:09.those hopes are represented into night's result. To my Plaid Cymru

:07:10. > :07:16.team of activists... Thank you, all of you, for all the work you have

:07:17. > :07:20.done. I thank my fellow candidates for a hard-fought campaign, this has

:07:21. > :07:24.been one of the keenly tested contests throughout the country, I

:07:25. > :07:29.think, and I also want to pay a particular tribute to Leighton

:07:30. > :07:32.Andrews who has served these communities but 13 years and has

:07:33. > :07:38.also served Wales and has been a good advocate for devolution.

:07:39. > :07:46.APPLAUSE Well done.

:07:47. > :07:53.A new dawn has broken off the Rhondda, it is too early to say

:07:54. > :07:58.whether or not a new dawn will have broken over the whole of the nation,

:07:59. > :08:06.but to night's results give me hope for a new beginning and for a new

:08:07. > :08:09.Wales. APPLAUSE

:08:10. > :08:15.The leader of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood, thrilled to take the Rhondda.

:08:16. > :08:19.Leighton Andrews, now speaking, let's hear this. I want to thank

:08:20. > :08:23.everyone for the hard work, the police who had been with us today,

:08:24. > :08:28.making sure we had a smooth election. Can I start by

:08:29. > :08:33.congratulating Leanne, a personal triumph for her and she is to be

:08:34. > :08:39.commended, when she announced she was standing for the Rhondda, there

:08:40. > :08:44.were two people who thought she could win and one was herself and I

:08:45. > :08:48.was the other. 20 years ago I became involved in the years for Wales

:08:49. > :08:51.campaign, the campaign to get the National Assembly for Wales and I

:08:52. > :08:57.remain committed to devolution and to the strengthening of our Welsh

:08:58. > :09:02.tomography. 20 years ago I never expected to become an assembly

:09:03. > :09:06.member and let me say, it's been a great of alleged to be a member of

:09:07. > :09:13.the National Assembly for Wales and it's been a great honour and

:09:14. > :09:16.privilege to represent the Rhondda in the National Assembly for Wales.

:09:17. > :09:21.I also never expected of course to become a member of the Welsh

:09:22. > :09:24.government, a minister and I am grateful for that opportunity and I

:09:25. > :09:28.am proud of some of the things we were able to do. I am proud of the

:09:29. > :09:34.fact that I protected Welsh students against having to pay ?9,000 tuition

:09:35. > :09:38.fees, proud of the fact that Rhondda youngsters have jobs with local

:09:39. > :09:42.firms here because of the jobs growth Wales scheme that I longed

:09:43. > :09:46.proud of the fact that we have record GCSE results in Rhondda

:09:47. > :09:54.schools and proud of the fact that we saved jobs in the Rhondda. Those

:09:55. > :09:58.are all ministerial achievements, I think.

:09:59. > :10:01.APPLAUSE There are however lessons for my

:10:02. > :10:05.party in the results tonight, lessons at a local level, lessons

:10:06. > :10:12.adult Welsh level, lessons at a national level as well. That is not

:10:13. > :10:16.for discussion tonight at their will be things that we need to discuss

:10:17. > :10:22.and debate amongst ourselves later. Tonight, can I thank my agent,

:10:23. > :10:26.Kristin Evans, our fantastic organiser Mark Lewis and my wife and

:10:27. > :10:32.for all her support throughout this campaign and over nearly 20 years.

:10:33. > :10:36.And can I thank my assembly staff, in particular for all their hard

:10:37. > :10:42.work over the years they have served with me. But above all, can I thank

:10:43. > :10:45.the Rhondda Labour Party further support throughout this campaign and

:10:46. > :10:48.over many years and the people of the Rhondda for the opportunity they

:10:49. > :10:58.gave me. APPLAUSE

:10:59. > :11:02.Leighton Andrews, addressing the crowd in the Rhondda, as Leanne Wood

:11:03. > :11:07.takes that seat from him. He leads the political stage,

:11:08. > :11:14.though, perhaps, to return one day, who knows? Elin Jones joins us in

:11:15. > :11:19.Ceredigion, the newly elected assembly member, congratulations.

:11:20. > :11:24.What do you make of the performance of the Rhondda? Thank you very much

:11:25. > :11:29.for your congratulations and this is a spec tackler when foreign Leanne

:11:30. > :11:39.Wood and she will be so pleased to have been elected by the people. --

:11:40. > :11:45.spectacular. She has worked hard to gain the support and has led a

:11:46. > :11:49.national campaign for Plaid Cymru at the same time, it's a double

:11:50. > :11:56.achievement for her tonight and this will feel very sweet for her. And

:11:57. > :11:59.she deserves the support of the people of the Rhondda, she will work

:12:00. > :12:07.hard and tirelessly on their behalf. This strategy to gear your campaign

:12:08. > :12:10.around Leanne Wood, almost in a presidential way, similarly Labour

:12:11. > :12:16.Party did the same, it paid off for the leader and pushed her big time

:12:17. > :12:21.that constituency? Yes, Leanne has had to focus her work as a

:12:22. > :12:28.constituency candidate in the Rhondda while also leading the

:12:29. > :12:32.national campaign, that is quite an achievement for her tonight, to win

:12:33. > :12:37.that seat, taking at from the Labour Party in such a dramatic way with

:12:38. > :12:42.such a convincing majority while also leading the Plaid Cymru

:12:43. > :12:49.national campaign that has led to the victory here for me in Kerry

:12:50. > :12:54.Dean and other victories and other significant dents in Labour

:12:55. > :12:58.majorities in many places. There aren't many seats still to declare,

:12:59. > :13:06.and regional seats as well. We will see what the rest of the night has

:13:07. > :13:11.bowed to night belongs to Leanne Wood, that victory for her in the

:13:12. > :13:14.Rhondda is spectacular. And she deserves all our applause, both in

:13:15. > :13:24.Plaid Cymru and beyond, for achieving a dramatic win. Thank you,

:13:25. > :13:31.Elin Jones. We will bring you a result from Anglesey... Richard Wyn

:13:32. > :13:35.Jones, you are about to leave us, before you go, assess the

:13:36. > :13:39.performance of Plaid Cymru. When we saw Kirsty Williams result go

:13:40. > :13:46.through I said it was a personal vindication and it clearly is a

:13:47. > :13:49.personal vindication. For Leanne Wood and Leighton Andrews was

:13:50. > :13:57.gracious enough to say that in his speech. I wonder if we can bring up

:13:58. > :14:02.the result for you to look at? Yes... It is there. There we go, 51%

:14:03. > :14:10.for Plaid Cymru, the Labour Party 36... Let's recall that the Labour

:14:11. > :14:15.Party started on 60%, quite a reversal of fortunes and as I

:14:16. > :14:19.mentioned, this is against a very, very well oiled Labour machine and

:14:20. > :14:26.interestingly, note that Ukip is only 9%, this is not Ukip taking

:14:27. > :14:30.away votes from the Labour Party, Plaid Cymru coming through the

:14:31. > :14:38.middle, it's a straight fight between Plaid Cymru and the Labour

:14:39. > :14:41.Party which Leanne Wood, let's be fair, one, it's a stunning result.

:14:42. > :14:49.Let's bring in pictures, the count from Carmarthen East and dinner

:14:50. > :15:08.for... And here is a returning officer. Here is the result of the

:15:09. > :15:16.North and East and deliver... -- Carmarthen East and Dinefwr... Ie

:15:17. > :15:23.the returning officer give notice that the number of votes recorded

:15:24. > :15:37.for each candidate is as follows... Freya Amsbury... 797.

:15:38. > :16:23.Neil Hamilton, 3474. Stephen Jeacock... 5727. Matthew Paul...

:16:24. > :16:36.4489. William Powell... 837. Adam Price...

:16:37. > :17:06.I hereby declared that Adam Price is duly elected member of the National

:17:07. > :17:13.Welsh Assembly for Wales for the said constituency.

:17:14. > :17:22.The Adam Price shaking the hand of the returning officer as he becomes

:17:23. > :17:31.the new Assembly member for can often east -- and then eased. His

:17:32. > :17:40.predecessor stood down. It is time to speak to Leanne Wood 's.

:17:41. > :17:51.Congratulations. Thank you, Bethan. Did you expect to win? You stood on

:17:52. > :17:54.the list and you did not need to. I never take anything for granted, but

:17:55. > :17:59.when I 1st announced I was standing in the Rhondda the rules were

:18:00. > :18:05.different. So there was the option of the regional list as well, but to

:18:06. > :18:08.win here in the Rhondda, to win and be the Assembly member for the

:18:09. > :18:12.constituency where you have lived all your life and grew up is a real

:18:13. > :18:19.honour, and it is down to the hard work we have put in. We have not

:18:20. > :18:23.thousands of doors, I have thousands of conversations with people. People

:18:24. > :18:29.have told us it is time to change and the vote to night reflects that.

:18:30. > :18:37.We don't know the final numbers and you would not talk about deals or

:18:38. > :18:44.coalitions, but if Carwyn Jones needed help, would you reach out?

:18:45. > :18:50.Would you be up for talks? Look, I am not a tribal politician and I

:18:51. > :18:52.certainly don't take much notice of personalities in politics. I have

:18:53. > :18:57.said all the way through the campaign that Wales will only

:18:58. > :19:02.progress when we have a change of government and we put together an

:19:03. > :19:06.amazing programme of government with far reaching solutions over a

:19:07. > :19:10.generation. I want the opportunity to implement that manifesto. Of

:19:11. > :19:13.course we don't know what the results are yet. We don't know how

:19:14. > :19:18.much of a role Plaid Cymru will have in the next government, so it is a

:19:19. > :19:23.bit premature to be talking about what kind of coalition we could be

:19:24. > :19:28.looking at at this stage. But you are open to offers? That is what I'm

:19:29. > :19:32.getting at. I have made my position clear throughout the process. I

:19:33. > :19:39.would not work with the Conservatives and Ukip are way above

:19:40. > :19:45.the pale, but everything that is on the table. I don't want there to be

:19:46. > :19:48.a cold -ish in government. Until the results are in, I'm not going to

:19:49. > :19:55.speculate on what our government will look like. You led the campaign

:19:56. > :19:58.obviously as leader, but it was at times very presidential. Where you

:19:59. > :20:05.comfortable with that? Is that why you think you have maybe got the

:20:06. > :20:10.role because of your high profile? I have 1 here in the Rhondda because

:20:11. > :20:15.my team put in the ground work. Risky having extra coverage on TV is

:20:16. > :20:20.helpful in terms of being able to speak to a wider range of people

:20:21. > :20:24.than I have been able to before, but I am convinced that this seat has

:20:25. > :20:28.been 1 on the conversations, the work we have done on the ground,

:20:29. > :20:32.speaking to people and providing solutions to the problems people

:20:33. > :20:35.face in their everyday lives, which they have told us they are concerned

:20:36. > :20:41.about. We have worked very hard for this. It has not come easily. Yes I

:20:42. > :20:46.have run the campaign right throughout Wales, but I've been in

:20:47. > :20:52.the Rhondda as well and this reflects the hard work we have put

:20:53. > :21:02.in. Thank you for joining us this morning. Let us go to the panel and

:21:03. > :21:05.get the views from 1 of the big names.

:21:06. > :21:11.Did you think that she would take the Rhondda? The signs were good,

:21:12. > :21:16.our teams were working hard. Every week I saw the figures come on in.

:21:17. > :21:23.Of course you are nervous because people are optimistic in politics,

:21:24. > :21:28.but the signs were there. I must page should be to Leanne Wood. I

:21:29. > :21:44.have seen her develop over the years. She does have a gym members

:21:45. > :21:52.team. -- a tremendous team. Leanne doesn't deserve the attention, but

:21:53. > :22:06.she has aged men this team -- Leanne does deserve the attention. Was her

:22:07. > :22:12.bigger profile which she started building in last's election a big

:22:13. > :22:16.help in her having this result in the Rhondda? It certainly helps,

:22:17. > :22:22.there is no doubt about that, but I have seen the figures. We know how

:22:23. > :22:26.many conversations we have had, how many doors we have not, how many

:22:27. > :22:34.leaflets we have distributed. If you look at our manifesto, it was

:22:35. > :22:42.substantial. If you compare that to Labour's Lindsay document, people

:22:43. > :22:49.have started to see this. There is a need for hope and change. Ideally we

:22:50. > :22:52.need a change of government. They are stale and tired and their

:22:53. > :22:59.manifesto reflects that. The whole body language of the First Minister

:23:00. > :23:07.reflects that. Lounging in his chair, not engaged. So you raw out

:23:08. > :23:17.local factors being a contribution to to this. It is doubtful how many

:23:18. > :23:29.people in the Rhondda Atchley sat down and read the manifesto. Well,

:23:30. > :23:34.Leanne is the daughter of the Rhondda. They work queueing to vote

:23:35. > :23:46.where she comes from. They thought, here is a local girl, she has worked

:23:47. > :23:53.hard and she is championing the Rhondda. We want to support her. The

:23:54. > :24:02.result is due to be huge platform she was given going back to the

:24:03. > :24:06.general election and those acres of news coverage play a role.

:24:07. > :24:10.Congratulations to her, but I think the story of the night continues to

:24:11. > :24:15.be a very disappointing night for the Conservatives and also for Ukip.

:24:16. > :24:23.Mark Reckless has said they are revising down there estimates from 8

:24:24. > :24:27.down to 5 seats. The Tories have failed to take the seats they were

:24:28. > :24:35.going for. We need to keep the focus not on just the Rhondda, but right

:24:36. > :24:45.across Wales were a clear narrative is emerging. There is a shocking

:24:46. > :24:53.result for Labour in the Rhondda. Post to the limit by a Plaid Cymru

:24:54. > :25:10.and -- pushed to the limit by a Plaid Cymru candidate. We have had

:25:11. > :25:16.the First Minister for 17 years. Some of the vote share has gone

:25:17. > :25:21.down, but we have seen off the challenge. What matters is how many

:25:22. > :25:28.seats you have in the Assembly. As it stands, we are heading towards

:25:29. > :25:34.another Welsh Labour government. How much of the shine does this result

:25:35. > :25:41.take off of it? It is disappointing. Losing Leighton Andrews is a big

:25:42. > :25:44.blow, but he was up against an avalanche of personal coverage for

:25:45. > :25:49.Leanne and I would say this was a personal vote for her and that is

:25:50. > :25:52.why it is an aberration compared to what we are seeing across the

:25:53. > :25:57.country and that is the only explanation we have. We will miss

:25:58. > :26:11.Layton, we have a team of new AM is coming through. I think they will

:26:12. > :26:16.lead us in a very good way for the next 5 years. A new look Assembly in

:26:17. > :26:20.all respects because a lot of people standing down, and a new party we

:26:21. > :26:28.expect coming in when the regional results start to come through. Jim

:26:29. > :26:34.Culver for Ukip. Now we have seen a chunk of results coming in, what are

:26:35. > :26:50.your views? With the badness of the Conservative Party have got, it will

:26:51. > :26:56.have an effect. We want to get Ukip Assembly member representing

:26:57. > :27:05.everyone in Wales. I will stop you there because we have Leighton

:27:06. > :27:10.Andrews ready to give his response. Good morning. You must be

:27:11. > :27:16.disappointed. I am more tired than anything else. It has been a long

:27:17. > :27:20.day and long night. Yes, clearly I am disappointed. I congratulated

:27:21. > :27:28.Leanne. Inevitably the UK wide profile she has had has contributed

:27:29. > :27:37.to this result. There were significant local issues that have

:27:38. > :27:42.been exploited by Plaid Cymru, as they have exploited other issues in

:27:43. > :27:46.other constituencies in South Wales. Clearly you did not want this result

:27:47. > :27:55.and did not expect it, but a 24% swing to Plaid Cymru. It is a huge

:27:56. > :27:58.result and you are a big casualty. Well, I think there are lessons for

:27:59. > :28:04.the Labour Party which we need to consider. Lessons locally, at a

:28:05. > :28:11.Welsh level and at the party UK level. But what I am pleased about

:28:12. > :28:16.other victories for my Labour colleagues. Clearly we have seen of

:28:17. > :28:23.the Conservative challenge in many parts of Wales and we are delivering

:28:24. > :28:28.strong leadership and strong results with Labour candidates across Wales.

:28:29. > :28:34.You mention those lessons in your speech. Can you share some of them,

:28:35. > :28:40.or is it too early? We always need time to reflect after a moment of

:28:41. > :28:45.defeat. I think there are issues for the party at a local level. There

:28:46. > :28:50.are issues for the party at a Welsh level and there are clearly issues

:28:51. > :28:55.for the party at a UK level. You cannot guarantee you can mobilise

:28:56. > :29:00.labour voters at a time when the party at a UK level is divided. If

:29:01. > :29:05.they see a viable alternative as they clearly did in the Rhondda,

:29:06. > :29:12.then they go to that viable alternative. Are you saying you were

:29:13. > :29:20.punished because of Jeremy Corbyn's problems, the anti-Semitic row?

:29:21. > :29:24.There are factors that are local, Welsh and some of them honestly as

:29:25. > :29:31.we have seen in the media over the last week or 2 at a UK level. What

:29:32. > :29:37.next for you, Mr Andrews? It might be unfair to ask because you publish

:29:38. > :29:45.haven't thought of it, but any plans? I have a ticket bought Euro

:29:46. > :29:54.16 and will be looking forward to that. It's probably time for... We

:29:55. > :30:03.have lost the picture. Thank you, Mr Andrews and enjoy the game. Let us

:30:04. > :30:08.see some pictures in Bridgend. Who is Carwyn Jones on the phone to?

:30:09. > :30:14.Maybe he is trying to call Mr Andrews. Who knows. There he is, the

:30:15. > :30:21.First Minister, waiting for his results in Bridgend. There is Janice

:30:22. > :30:30.Gregory next to him. It is a great shop, coming off the back of that

:30:31. > :30:33.Leighton Andrews interview. Of course, Leighton Andrews, people

:30:34. > :30:42.speculated this is a man who could be the future health Minister,

:30:43. > :30:49.economic development, future leader. I don't think he was going to stay

:30:50. > :30:53.as a public service Minister. But this is not the story of Leighton

:30:54. > :31:01.Andrews, it is the story of Leanne Wood 's. A very controversial

:31:02. > :31:11.minister. Laura McAllister back with us.

:31:12. > :31:16.Somebody who had a clear idea of what he wanted to do with the

:31:17. > :31:23.different portfolios he held, always created tension around him... And

:31:24. > :31:26.local government reform... But someone who did not let his

:31:27. > :31:31.officials dictate the agenda and it will be interesting to see... And he

:31:32. > :31:39.will be missed. I genuinely think he will be. Interestingly, he would

:31:40. > :31:42.have been one of the people most involved in negotiations over any

:31:43. > :31:45.future deal with the Labour Party because he has been there and done

:31:46. > :31:54.it and understands the issues around that. You score might you were not

:31:55. > :32:00.here at the time. -- your thoughts. I did an interview last week with

:32:01. > :32:04.the BBC about the Rhondda and I thought she would make a dent into

:32:05. > :32:12.Leighton Andrews majority but not when, how wrong was I, this is such

:32:13. > :32:19.-- a substantial result for Plaid Cymru. But we can feel a colitis

:32:20. > :32:22.tissues coming into play but this is a bad Leanne Wood, her profile and

:32:23. > :32:32.personality and what she has been able to do. -- you can feel a lot of

:32:33. > :32:36.issues. There have been enormous gains elsewhere in terms of old

:32:37. > :32:39.share, slightly up across Wales, but making this breakthrough in the

:32:40. > :32:49.valleys is what they have been after. It's interesting, you were

:32:50. > :32:57.saying, it wasn't like the Plaid Cymru row Blaenau Gwent vote, Kirsty

:32:58. > :32:59.Williams has had her majority increased, how passionate

:33:00. > :33:03.politicians... I think this shows, how they resonate with voters. They

:33:04. > :33:10.have had focus on them but they have slightly different approach and some

:33:11. > :33:13.politicians in the past. During the campaign, some criticism that

:33:14. > :33:16.sometimes the leaders for getting too much attention, from the media

:33:17. > :33:23.and their own parties. We see here the fruits of that. That's right,

:33:24. > :33:26.think back to the campaign and it really was all about the Welsh

:33:27. > :33:32.leaders, wasn't it? We really didn't... Clyde, possibly, we saw

:33:33. > :33:39.more of the big hitters but in terms of the big hitters and the

:33:40. > :33:43.Conservatives and Labour... -- Plaid Cymru. They talk about it openly,

:33:44. > :33:47.Carwyn Jones said he learned the lessons of David Cameron's victory

:33:48. > :33:51.last year and wanted the pose a question, who do you want us First

:33:52. > :33:56.Minister? It was all about personalities, Leanne Wood and

:33:57. > :34:00.hearty Mac Word down that track with the profile that she got in the

:34:01. > :34:08.general election campaign, and that carried on. -- Plaid Cymru. We have

:34:09. > :34:13.this is not triumph for her but as Laura said, it is more than that, it

:34:14. > :34:21.will have implications for the party in terms of any questions about her

:34:22. > :34:26.leadership, surely gone now. Will this lead, depending on what happens

:34:27. > :34:31.to the list, a net gain for the party, it looks as if that way,

:34:32. > :34:36.hugely symbolic moment for the party, beating the Conservatives

:34:37. > :34:41.into second place. Any talk of any... She is gold-plated, isn't

:34:42. > :34:48.she? A leadership challenge is dead in the water. We heard Adam Price

:34:49. > :34:53.denying there was a leadership challenge... You don't make this

:34:54. > :34:56.kind of breakthrough as leader of a party in a rock-solid Labour Party

:34:57. > :35:01.seat and expect a challenge from anybody within your party. Laura,

:35:02. > :35:07.you have sometimes been critical of Plaid Cymru tactics, wrong to rule

:35:08. > :35:09.out a coalition with the Conservatives, do you stuff think

:35:10. > :35:15.that, or do you think she has delivered. I stand by that, I think

:35:16. > :35:21.the priority of any party is to govern. I think Plaid Cymru couldn't

:35:22. > :35:24.have its cake and eat it, it said it wanted to change a tired Labour

:35:25. > :35:28.government but the only option in terms of coalition would be to

:35:29. > :35:33.support that government, take nothing away from this, it's a

:35:34. > :35:40.stupendous rectory. Thank you for now, let's have another quick chat

:35:41. > :35:53.with Nathan Gill, have things, moved for your party? -- stupendous

:35:54. > :36:02.rectory. Have things moved for your party behind the scenes? Yes... --

:36:03. > :36:10.Victor Arribas. I think what we are showing is average is around the

:36:11. > :36:16.15-16% mark, some amazing results in Merthyr Tydfil, 21-22% swings. If

:36:17. > :36:21.you not so good results in places like Wrexham but with the ups and

:36:22. > :36:26.downs, because of proportional representation, we still feel we are

:36:27. > :36:33.on track for five assembly members and let's hope we get six, seven or

:36:34. > :36:36.eight. You were talking earlier on in the programme but are you

:36:37. > :36:42.disappointed about the north-east, the push hasn't been great and in

:36:43. > :36:52.general, you are in third place rather than knocking the

:36:53. > :36:57.Conservatives out of second? Look, I'm not disappointed, 17% swings to

:36:58. > :37:00.Ukip, the Conservatives, for instance in Wrexham, through the

:37:01. > :37:05.kitchen sink at that campaign, a lot of money, a very strong local

:37:06. > :37:09.candidate. We were obviously going to get squeezed in that battle, but

:37:10. > :37:14.I think we've shown we have done extremely well, don't forget, this

:37:15. > :37:23.is not exactly our campaign, you know, the European Union campaign

:37:24. > :37:29.was always considered to be Ukip's this is always supposed to be Plaid

:37:30. > :37:36.Cymru, we are doing well, have our heads above the water and I think as

:37:37. > :37:39.the percentages show, we are set to do extremely well and make that

:37:40. > :37:44.massive breakthrough we all these wanted into the Welsh Assembly. You

:37:45. > :37:47.spent a lot of the campaign as a leader, sharing a platform with

:37:48. > :37:50.people like Kirsty Williams and Leanne Wood who have secured strong

:37:51. > :37:59.majorities, what is your view on their results? Very good and

:38:00. > :38:04.congratulations to them and to everyone who puts their head above

:38:05. > :38:08.the parapet and stands in elections, because unless you do that for

:38:09. > :38:12.yourself, you don't realise just how difficult and how tiring and had

:38:13. > :38:16.training it is to stand as a politician. Well done to all of

:38:17. > :38:23.them. When do you expect your results? Well... I don't know if you

:38:24. > :38:28.can see behind us but basically everyone has gone, we are waiting

:38:29. > :38:36.for Anglesey to declare and once that happens, we can get on with the

:38:37. > :38:40.list, so 6:30am, 7am... We will still be going, I hope you are not

:38:41. > :38:48.quite on your own. Thank you very much. Nathan Gill there. It is

:38:49. > :38:54.getting quite lonely! Thank you. We are going to talk about health

:38:55. > :39:01.now... We haven't talked about health for a while. Let's start with

:39:02. > :39:05.health and we will broaden the doubt, it was such a big theme

:39:06. > :39:14.throughout this campaign, did you expect it to be that big again? It

:39:15. > :39:18.was a big theme, some big national issues, people were aware of the

:39:19. > :39:23.demands on health worker creating and growing all the time, but lots

:39:24. > :39:28.of local issues, concerns about the future of services in West Wales,

:39:29. > :39:33.North Wales, concerned about how the health board was wrong, in east

:39:34. > :39:36.Wales, concerns about how the health system in England and Wales is

:39:37. > :39:41.working together. These are local issues, essentially but had become

:39:42. > :39:50.national issues because of the size of Wales. These local issues have

:39:51. > :39:53.dominated the health campaign but I think perhaps the parties have

:39:54. > :39:59.underscored as many direct hits against each other on health, simply

:40:00. > :40:02.because people may realise as the professional bodies that represent

:40:03. > :40:08.doctors and nurses keep on telling us, there is no sober bullet to

:40:09. > :40:14.solve some of the health services problems and perhaps, no single set

:40:15. > :40:20.of ideas that will do that. -- there is no single bullet. The biggest

:40:21. > :40:23.result of the night so far is Leanne Wood winning the Rhondda, but there

:40:24. > :40:29.is a kind of health irony, because if you remember, Leighton Andrews

:40:30. > :40:35.jibe at Plaid Cymru at the end of the last assembly term, calling

:40:36. > :40:40.Plaid Cymru cheap date. That has come back to bite him, arguably and

:40:41. > :40:46.I am told... Thank you... Let's go to technically for a key result.

:40:47. > :41:07.Here is the result for the Llanelli constituency. SPEAKS WELSH.

:41:08. > :41:12.I, the constituency returning officer hereby give notice that the

:41:13. > :41:26.number of votes recorded for each candidate is as follows...

:41:27. > :42:02.Gemma-Jane Bowker, 355. Sian kayak... 1113. Helen Mary Jones...

:42:03. > :42:36.9885. Kenneth Rees... 4132. Stefan Ryszewski... 1937. Guy Smith... 427.

:42:37. > :42:43.Lee Waters... 10,000... CHEERING

:42:44. > :43:05.APPLAUSE 10200 and 67.

:43:06. > :43:10.I hereby declare that Lee Waters is duly elected member of the National

:43:11. > :43:12.Assembly for Wales by the said constituency.

:43:13. > :43:27.CHEERING APPLAUSE

:43:28. > :43:28.Winning that seat and Helen Mary Jones coming a close second, she

:43:29. > :43:33.will be disappointed, but Lee Waters, the new assembly member for

:43:34. > :43:44.Llanelli... We will go shortly to the Ogmore

:43:45. > :43:48.count, a very safe Labour seat, all the candidates come to the stage.

:43:49. > :43:53.The returning officer checking that all the candidates are there, no...

:43:54. > :44:01.Not quite, he is not going to the podium just yet. But Hugh Arango

:44:02. > :44:11.Davis, making that swap from Westminster to Cardiff Bay. -- Huw

:44:12. > :44:21.Irranca-Davies. No... See we go. The declaration. I am going to declare

:44:22. > :44:23.the result for the Ogmore constituency first in English with

:44:24. > :44:31.Welsh translation following afterwards. I, being the

:44:32. > :44:36.constituency returning officer at the election held on the 5th of May

:44:37. > :44:38.2016 do hereby give notice that the number of faults recorded for each

:44:39. > :44:48.candidate at the election is as follows. -- number of faults. --

:44:49. > :44:54.number of votes. Laurie Brophy... Anita Davies... Welsh Liberal

:44:55. > :45:04.Democrats... 698. Hugh Arango bus, Welsh Labour, 12,800 95.

:45:05. > :45:21.Elizabeth Kendall... Ukip Wales, 3233. Tim Thomas, Plaid Cymru, 3427.

:45:22. > :45:30.Jamie Wallis, Welsh Conservatives, 2587.

:45:31. > :45:37.140 reject the ballot papers. And I declare that Huw Irranca-Davies is

:45:38. > :45:55.duly elected. He has been the MP for the

:45:56. > :46:11.constituency since 2002. Let's go to the next count. SPEAKS WELSH..

:46:12. > :46:21.I the undersigned being the constituency returning officer for

:46:22. > :46:30.the above named constituency Cardiff South and Penarth thereby give the

:46:31. > :46:55.number of votes recorded each candidate as follows. Plaid Cymru,

:46:56. > :47:13.4320. Walsh Labour, 13200 and 74. -- Welsh Labour 13,200 74.

:47:14. > :47:31.Nigel Howells, Liberal Democrats, 1345.

:47:32. > :48:19.And the under mentioned person has been elected to serve as an Assembly

:48:20. > :48:27.member for the set constituency. Vaughan Gething. Vaughan Gething

:48:28. > :48:34.re-elected to represent Cardiff South and Penarth. He is in

:48:35. > :48:41.Michael's of sleep. Let us look in more detail. Let us talk you through

:48:42. > :48:54.the share of the vote the Cardiff South and Penarth. Labour on 44%,

:48:55. > :49:04.conservatives on 21%, Plaid Cymru 14%, Ukip 12%. Gethin increased his

:49:05. > :49:13.majority 5 years ago and has held it there or thereabouts. Labour's share

:49:14. > :49:22.of the vote is down 6%. The Conservatives down 7%. Chad Cymru is

:49:23. > :49:30.up 2%, Ukip is up 12%. The Lib Dems are down 6% and the greens are up

:49:31. > :49:45.4%. The swings from -- the swing from conservative to Labour is 0.

:49:46. > :49:51.Lee Edwards, a prominent figure, he was an adviser to Ron Davies. He has

:49:52. > :49:57.been around a long time and very experienced politically. He will be

:49:58. > :50:06.thrilled to be in the Assembly. There he is. Labour 36%. It was a

:50:07. > :50:17.very close fight. Plaid Cymru and not quite making it with 35%. Ukip

:50:18. > :50:22.on 15, Conservatives on 7. The turnout there was 47%. Let us hear

:50:23. > :50:29.some of the acceptance speech. Thank you very much. I was born and raised

:50:30. > :50:34.in this constituency and I cannot tell you how proud I am to be chosen

:50:35. > :50:38.by the people of my community to represent them in our national

:50:39. > :50:44.Assembly. I promised to do my very best and to be true to myself. I

:50:45. > :50:47.have had some incredibly frustrating conversations over the last 6 months

:50:48. > :50:52.on the doorsteps of this constituency. Too many people have

:50:53. > :50:57.given up. Too many people want to talk about what we have lost in the

:50:58. > :51:02.last 30 years and not enough to set their minds to what we can do in the

:51:03. > :51:07.next 30 years and that is what I want to change. I do not have a

:51:08. > :51:12.magic once, but I do have an intolerance of mediocrity. We can do

:51:13. > :51:17.better, but only if we demand more of ourselves and only if we work

:51:18. > :51:22.together. I know there is genius in this constituency and there is

:51:23. > :51:24.passion. Let us harness it. Let us come together and focus on what's we

:51:25. > :51:51.can agree on, not what we agree on. I must thank the returning officer

:51:52. > :52:05.and all the people here today... Just a taste of that acceptance

:52:06. > :52:09.speech. Ogmore came in as well. Hugh Eranga Davis securing a comfortable

:52:10. > :52:18.victory with 55%. Plaid Cymru in 2nd place with 15%.

:52:19. > :52:31.The turnout in Ogmore was 43% and the majority was 9468. They have

:52:32. > :52:39.elected a Labour MP to replace Hugh Eranga Davis as well in that

:52:40. > :52:47.by-election. Labour down 9% and Ukip up 14%. The swing in Ogmore is 2.4%

:52:48. > :52:54.from Labour to Plaid Cymru. Todd Klein has come in as well. Lynne

:52:55. > :52:58.Neagle has been in the Assembly while. There is, re-elected the

:52:59. > :53:23.Labour. A turnout of 38% with a majority of

:53:24. > :53:37.4498. That must look at the change there.

:53:38. > :53:54.Now, let me just try and find you and is more. Here it is.

:53:55. > :54:25.Turnout of 50%. 1 of the highest this evening. A majority of manpower

:54:26. > :54:31.510. He had a very big majority. -- 9510. A quick reflection on some of

:54:32. > :54:41.those figures. It is patchy when you look at these sort -- at the South

:54:42. > :54:49.Wales valleys. In Caerphilly they did very well, really pushed Labour

:54:50. > :54:54.hard. Blaenau Gwent had an extraordinary result. It is back to

:54:55. > :54:58.the theme Laura and I were talking about, what they do in different

:54:59. > :55:10.constituencies. It is difficult to extrapolate any kind of pattern. We

:55:11. > :55:16.were told by Alun Davies there were local factors and other issues. We

:55:17. > :55:26.guess there are similar issues going on in Caerphilly from what's was

:55:27. > :55:30.described to us. It is what both parties do about it, that is the

:55:31. > :55:35.critical issue. At the very least it has shown Plaid Cymru it can win

:55:36. > :55:41.seats in the valleys. To come close in those 2 other seats gives the

:55:42. > :55:51.party some hope and it shows Labour they can lose seats in the valley.

:55:52. > :55:59.It is an incredible result for Lee Waters. The Assembly has done well

:56:00. > :56:06.to gain him. He has bucked trends there. Labour has been losing about

:56:07. > :56:15.8% of their share of the vote nationally. It is the 1st time a

:56:16. > :56:20.party has held the seat because it has swapped hands. Let us look at

:56:21. > :56:46.Pontypridd. The turnout was 43% and Labour have

:56:47. > :56:59.a majority of 5328. Let us have a look at their share of the vote.

:57:00. > :57:12.Let us just look... Do we have a scoreboard here? I wonder what the

:57:13. > :57:19.big picture is for Wales? We have the share of the vote in Wales and

:57:20. > :57:21.the constituencies. There we go. Labour on 35% so far, that is down

:57:22. > :57:37.8%. Ukip are up 13% because they weren't

:57:38. > :57:49.really players in the last elections. That is the big picture,

:57:50. > :57:56.Nick, so far. The polls we got pretty close to that. The share of

:57:57. > :58:00.the vote on the constituency basis from what I can work out there.

:58:01. > :58:06.Plaid's ability, interestingly it seems to be in the heartland areas

:58:07. > :58:11.and in the South Wales valleys. We have still got a lot of very

:58:12. > :58:18.interesting results to come. There will be some marginal seats on the

:58:19. > :58:23.M4 corridor. Up until this point, Labour have been quite effective.

:58:24. > :58:29.The Newport West result was the 1 to refer to their and obviously a very

:58:30. > :58:37.strong result in the Llanelli to hold onto that seat. Laura, what you

:58:38. > :58:42.of that big picture so far? What has happened is as predicted, some real

:58:43. > :58:47.variation between constituencies. We always knew there was not going to

:58:48. > :58:51.be a national picture here, although as Nick said, the figures were new

:58:52. > :58:54.extrapolate out from them look similar to the polls we saw, but we

:58:55. > :59:00.have seen huge variations within that. I think we still have some

:59:01. > :59:04.interesting issues ahead of us in terms of the allocations of the

:59:05. > :59:09.regional seats. If things are as close as they look, the 3rd and 4th

:59:10. > :59:14.regional seats will be tight as to who gets those. It may be premature,

:59:15. > :59:20.but if we look at the make-up the new government and what it could be,

:59:21. > :59:30.people will be gunning for some of the top jobs. There are gaps in the

:59:31. > :59:36.Cabinet. There are big jobs to feel and they will be looking the those.

:59:37. > :59:45.OK. Thank you very much. Believe it or not, it is morning. It is nearly

:59:46. > :59:55.6 o'clock. That is it. We are also handing over on radio Wales. Thank

:59:56. > :59:59.you for your company and we leave you on radio. We do continue on BBC

:00:00. > :00:07.One Wales right through until beyond 9 o'clock, so plenty to talk about.

:00:08. > :00:21.The departure of Leighton Andrews does leave a massive gap. Yes. It is

:00:22. > :00:27.his job or condemnation of the lads, calling them a cheap date, that led

:00:28. > :00:36.to the demise of the Public health bill. I am told that Leighton

:00:37. > :00:44.Andrews would have liked a health brief in the future. This lead that

:00:45. > :00:49.opportunity will not occur now. Thank you very much. Let us just say

:00:50. > :00:55.how things are stacking up in the count in Cardiff then. Our reporter

:00:56. > :00:56.is looking very fresh face. Have you been to