Assembly Election Part 3

:00:00. > :00:00.opportunity will not occur now. Thank you very much. Let us just say

:00:00. > :00:07.how things are stacking up in the count in Cardiff then. Our reporter

:00:08. > :00:16.is looking very fresh face. Have you been to bed? He is still going. Who

:00:17. > :00:21.is counting what and how are we getting on?

:00:22. > :00:27.We have had the Cardiff South and Penarth declaration. Labour held it,

:00:28. > :00:32.as expected. As for the other three, we are hoping to get declarations in

:00:33. > :00:37.the next hour or cue. Cardiff West looks like Mark Drakeford health

:00:38. > :00:44.Minister will hold on by the skin of his teeth. It is a much closer fight

:00:45. > :00:49.than expected. Plaid Cymru's candidate is pushing really hard,

:00:50. > :00:54.going from third into second place. Cardiff North and Cardiff Central,

:00:55. > :00:58.much more difficult to tell. Cardiff Central, I'm told, is a flick of a

:00:59. > :01:02.coin at the moment. It is 838 vote majority for labour as it stands and

:01:03. > :01:08.we're looking around that figure it when the votes are actually counted.

:01:09. > :01:12.The Liberal Democrat candidate said, I won't know until they declare as

:01:13. > :01:17.to how it has gone. It is really that close. As the Cardiff North, it

:01:18. > :01:21.seems it is more like a couple of hundred votes either way. The

:01:22. > :01:26.Conservatives looking a little more worried than Labour at this moment,

:01:27. > :01:31.but again it seems a little bit too close to call. We are still waiting.

:01:32. > :01:38.Cardiff Central, we are talking about the Lib Dems chasing hard and

:01:39. > :01:41.a potential gain with a big student population in Cardiff Central.

:01:42. > :01:50.Tuition fees, you would have thought, not such a popular policy

:01:51. > :02:02.there, and yet they could take it. Yes, absolutely. All the Liberal

:02:03. > :02:04.Democrat officials and activates I've been talking to by saying it

:02:05. > :02:04.feels so different to last year when they were campaigning in Cardiff

:02:05. > :02:09.Central. -- Liberal Democrat officials and activists. They lost

:02:10. > :02:12.quite considerably to Labour last year. They have felt in the last

:02:13. > :02:17.year that people are willing to give them another chance in Cardiff

:02:18. > :02:22.Central, a seat that they held up to the 2011 assembly election, when

:02:23. > :02:29.they lost it by those 38 votes. It is all to play for and it could be

:02:30. > :02:35.very, very close once again. OK, James Williams in Cardiff, thank you

:02:36. > :02:41.ever so much. Plenty to look forward to. Some tight results coming up in

:02:42. > :02:48.Cardiff, as predicted. Absolutely. Up until this point, I think we have

:02:49. > :02:54.seen Labour perform pretty strongly. The Vale of Glamorgan, I think some

:02:55. > :02:57.of the bits and pieces we are hearing is that Labour are looking a

:02:58. > :03:03.bit more comfortable than the Conservatives. But obviously we will

:03:04. > :03:06.have to wait for the result, echoing a little bit about what James was

:03:07. > :03:10.saying about the situation in Cardiff North. Clearly, it is going

:03:11. > :03:17.to go right to the wire in some of those seats in the capital. Lets

:03:18. > :03:19.talk to Lord Peter Hain, former government minister of many

:03:20. > :03:26.portfolios. Good morning. What do you make of... Bore da. You keeping

:03:27. > :03:31.a close eye on development is in Wales? I certainly am. Having done

:03:32. > :03:35.the network TV programme for the BBC, following it very closely. It

:03:36. > :03:39.is a better night for Welsh Labour than we might have expected, given

:03:40. > :03:44.the national position and all the questions and challenges that have

:03:45. > :03:50.been on the national UK Labour leadership under Jeremy Corbyn.

:03:51. > :03:54.Carwyn Jones and his colleagues have done much better than some might

:03:55. > :04:00.have thought. A terrible blow in losing my close friend Leighton

:04:01. > :04:03.Andrews in the Rhondda and Leanne Wood had an extraordinary personal

:04:04. > :04:07.victory there, for which she deserves great credit. On the other

:04:08. > :04:11.hand, a tremendous victory for Lee Waters, who I think will be a very

:04:12. > :04:20.bright star in the Welsh assembly. That is an Llanelli, which Plaid

:04:21. > :04:24.Cymru hopes to win. Moving up to North Wales, the Tories hoped to

:04:25. > :04:30.take seats from us. If you look across the whole of Wales, the

:04:31. > :04:36.Tories won Gower from us and they won the Vale of Clwyd from us and we

:04:37. > :04:40.have held those two seats for Labour in the assembly. That shows the

:04:41. > :04:47.Tories are not advancing as much as they had hoped. What went wrong in

:04:48. > :04:52.the Rhondda, do you think? I can only speculate that Leanne Wood is,

:04:53. > :04:57.her personal profile, having catapulted at the election... I have

:04:58. > :05:01.do interrupt. We're going to get Carwyn Jones' result from Bridgend.

:05:02. > :05:08.Thank you for joining us. I declare this result in English and it will

:05:09. > :05:14.be followed by a Welsh translation. I dour my thing, being the returning

:05:15. > :05:18.officer at the 5th of May election, do hereby give notice that the

:05:19. > :05:23.number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as

:05:24. > :05:35.follows. Charlotte Barlow, Wales Green Party, 567. George Deborah,

:05:36. > :05:49.Welsh Conservative party, 6543. Carolyn Jones, Ukip Wales, 3919.

:05:50. > :06:07.Carwyn Jones, Welsh Labour, 12,100 66. -- 12,166. Jonathan Pratt, Welsh

:06:08. > :06:18.Liberal Democrats, 1087. James Radcliffe, Plaid Cymru, 2569. There

:06:19. > :06:26.are 137 rejected ballot papers and I do hereby declare that Carwyn Jones

:06:27. > :06:32.is duly elected. Carwyn Jones re-elected for Bridgend. He has

:06:33. > :06:39.represented that constituency since 1999. There we go. A comfortable win

:06:40. > :06:47.for him. Ten out of 45% and a comfortable majority. If we look at

:06:48. > :06:54.the share of the vote, Labour on 45. The Conservatives in second place

:06:55. > :07:00.and Ukip third, Plaid Cymru fourth. The change since the last time, down

:07:01. > :07:07.11% for Labour. Down 4% for the Conservatives, and up 15% for

:07:08. > :07:17.Bridgend for Ukip. A small increase, two, four Plaid Cymru and the

:07:18. > :07:22.Greens. Labour to Conservative swing of 3.6%. Lord Hain has stayed with

:07:23. > :07:28.us. Your leader is back safe representing Bridgend. Knows a prize

:07:29. > :07:34.there. No, and Carwyn Jones deserves enormous praise. He has really been

:07:35. > :07:38.the towering figure of this Welsh election as First Minister. I think

:07:39. > :07:42.he has done a lot to make sure that the Labour result in Wales has been

:07:43. > :07:48.much better than would have been expected across the UK, given the

:07:49. > :07:52.picture across the UK. Having said that, we are not in any position in

:07:53. > :07:58.Wales to start winning the kind of seats we need to win to win the next

:07:59. > :08:02.general election. So it is a good result for the assembly for Welsh

:08:03. > :08:06.Labour, but not the kind of results you would have expected in mid-term

:08:07. > :08:12.with an unpopular Tory government with the steel crisis, there was a

:08:13. > :08:14.crisis of the Tories making wisely, and the indifference in their

:08:15. > :08:18.incompetence particularly. You would have expected us to be doing much,

:08:19. > :08:26.much better in our hearts and seats. That hasn't been the case. --

:08:27. > :08:30.Hartland seats. There are big questions for UK labour, but a pat

:08:31. > :08:36.on the back for Welsh Labour. Not so veiled criticism of Mr Corbyn from

:08:37. > :08:39.you, as was perhaps from Leighton Andrews in an earlier interview. On

:08:40. > :08:43.the UK level, you have a very big problems and that is down to the

:08:44. > :08:50.leadership and the anti-Semitism row. Is that what you are aiming at

:08:51. > :08:54.there with your comments? Welsh Labour couldn't insulate ourselves

:08:55. > :09:00.with the media overwhelmingly coming from London at a UK level and TV and

:09:01. > :09:03.on radio and in the print newspapers, regrettably. We couldn't

:09:04. > :09:08.insulated ourselves from what was happening at a UK level and there is

:09:09. > :09:14.no question that the UK Labour Party in this Welsh election has not been

:09:15. > :09:24.a plus for us. I did a lot of my campaigning in Llanelli and go and

:09:25. > :09:29.we were fighting against the messages and reputation coming down

:09:30. > :09:35.from London. -- Gower. It's the strength of our candidates there and

:09:36. > :09:39.in Gower, as well as the Welsh Labour brands that we were able to

:09:40. > :09:44.hold onto those two seats and to make sure that Welsh Labour on the

:09:45. > :09:50.night has done better than might have been expected. Your performance

:09:51. > :09:55.is despite Mr Corbyn, and he hasn't been an asset. You saying you would

:09:56. > :10:00.prefer another leader? No, I am not saying anything about the Labour

:10:01. > :10:05.leader at a UK level. Jeremy has a big mandate from the membership. He

:10:06. > :10:10.got 60% of the votes just nine months ago. I don't see that being

:10:11. > :10:15.overturned in the near future very easily, if at all. I think that is

:10:16. > :10:20.not the question. The question is, how can Jeremy Corbyn himself, as

:10:21. > :10:25.the UK Labour leader, get us back into a position where we can start

:10:26. > :10:30.to advance in Wales again from the dreadful result we have in the

:10:31. > :10:38.general election last year? There is no site yet from the Labour

:10:39. > :10:41.leadership in London that they are clear or compelling and convincing

:10:42. > :10:45.as to how they are going to do that. That is the question they have to

:10:46. > :10:49.answer. Which is why I was asking you personally, would you prefer

:10:50. > :10:55.another leader? Clearly, you don't see him as an asset, you see in as a

:10:56. > :10:59.problem, and causing difficulties for the party in Wales, surely you

:11:00. > :11:03.would like to change, despite his mandate. As I have said just before,

:11:04. > :11:08.and you can keep asking me the question and I respect your

:11:09. > :11:12.professional right to do it. This is not about whether Jeremy should go

:11:13. > :11:17.or not go in my mind at this moment. What this is about is his answer,

:11:18. > :11:22.and the Labour leadership's answer as to how the party can get back

:11:23. > :11:29.into a position where there was no question of us losing the Rhonddas.

:11:30. > :11:34.How we can get back to the question in our Labour heartlands of winning

:11:35. > :11:38.again and beating the Tories again in the general election in those

:11:39. > :11:47.marginal seats, like Gower and the Vale of Cline -- Vale of Clwyd. That

:11:48. > :11:51.is a question that Jeremy Corbyn has not yet answered. If we are going to

:11:52. > :11:55.advance, he needs to do so. The future of his leadership depends on

:11:56. > :11:59.whether the answer he gives and the leadership he presents is convincing

:12:00. > :12:06.enough. Thank you very much for bearing with us throughout that

:12:07. > :12:12.result. Let's go over to the panel. We have some new faces. I was just

:12:13. > :12:17.looking at what the voter was, given the extra results will stop outputs

:12:18. > :12:21.that one side and introduced my guests. Fresh faces to us, but they

:12:22. > :12:25.have been up all night, as have we. Your patience is requested. And to

:12:26. > :12:32.the pickles, former Welsh Conservative Chief of staff. Also

:12:33. > :12:36.with me, Jocelyn Davies of Clyde Comrie, and AM who stood down. I

:12:37. > :12:46.don't know if you are missing the nerves or butterflies. I wasn't,

:12:47. > :12:49.actually. It has been a strange day. Standing out and not been the

:12:50. > :12:56.candidate this time, and I assure you I would have loved to be a

:12:57. > :13:00.candidate with Leanne Wood. We will talk about that in the second. I

:13:01. > :13:06.will finish the introductions. Lord Mike German for the Liberal

:13:07. > :13:09.Democrats. Niall Griffiths, Shadow Welsh Secretary, and Sam Gould of

:13:10. > :13:15.Ukip. You are all welcome and thank you for your patience. Joining us

:13:16. > :13:20.this morning. Let's talk about the Rhondda result. It is the headline

:13:21. > :13:26.of the night, undoubtedly. It is the only seat that has changed hands so

:13:27. > :13:32.far. A 24% swing. Astonishing. What is your explanation? They have

:13:33. > :13:37.worked very hard in Rhondda. She has had a high profile and she is our

:13:38. > :13:45.best asset. That has paid off on this occasion. The whole context of

:13:46. > :13:51.it just worked out perfectly. Does it have a meaning beyond it simply

:13:52. > :13:55.being a single astonishing result? I think so, because we took the

:13:56. > :14:02.Rhondda in the first Assembly and it has been with Labour since. She is

:14:03. > :14:06.our leader and she has been able to capture that. When we were watching

:14:07. > :14:13.her earlier when she did her little speech, it was a new day is dawning.

:14:14. > :14:18.She will try to galvanise that now and lead the party forward. I think

:14:19. > :14:22.that, personally, it was very important. It was important for us

:14:23. > :14:27.as a party to be able to regain that seat and it is really a significant

:14:28. > :14:30.change that we have seen so far. Obviously, this will play out into

:14:31. > :14:35.the regional seats because we will be able to calculate those, so we

:14:36. > :14:40.won't know until sometime tomorrow. Let's hope it's tomorrow that we

:14:41. > :14:45.will know. Today, hopefully, we can't sit here till Saturday.

:14:46. > :14:54.Whether Labour will have a majority or not. Certainly up till now, that

:14:55. > :14:59.is the only change. Niall Griffiths, a good night for Labour, broadly

:15:00. > :15:04.speaking, in that you have held on to the places that you have needed

:15:05. > :15:09.to. Except for this shock in the Rhondda.

:15:10. > :15:15.We have held on in north-east Wales. I think the Conservatives thought

:15:16. > :15:18.they would take our, they thought they would take the Vale of Clwyd

:15:19. > :15:24.and we have seen them off well and truly. We haven't seen the Ukip

:15:25. > :15:29.search quite as much as we might have thought. It is when it was last

:15:30. > :15:37.year. I am not saying I'm upset about that, I am not. That has been

:15:38. > :15:39.relatively contained. The resultant Rhondda has been exceptional because

:15:40. > :15:46.Leanne Wood has had a high profile as leader. I don't think it's

:15:47. > :15:50.represents a general view of Plaid Cymru. We have seen it in Llanelli.

:15:51. > :15:59.We have beaten them well and truly. They didn't take Conwy which you

:16:00. > :16:04.would have expected. This is very localised. I think it is very much

:16:05. > :16:11.Leanne Wood and her profile. Other areas, it is very local to

:16:12. > :16:20.constituency issues. Local council issues, for example. Llanelli was

:16:21. > :16:26.very close, when I was very close. There are particular issues there.

:16:27. > :16:31.The AM there has referred to them. All the things people look at when

:16:32. > :16:37.they vote, it is very complex. They vote on a wide range of images and

:16:38. > :16:42.issues. On that point, Leighton Andrews, critical of UK Labour and

:16:43. > :16:46.the divisions in UK Labour and the impact that has had on the selection

:16:47. > :16:50.in Wales, similarly Peter Hain who we have just heard. It hasn't made

:16:51. > :16:57.it easy for Welsh Labour, is the message those two men have made. Do

:16:58. > :17:04.you agree with their analysis? People do look at individual

:17:05. > :17:06.election separately. We have sophisticated voters. We see this

:17:07. > :17:11.again and again in Llanelli for example. They will look at what is

:17:12. > :17:17.happening in Welsh Government and locally. A lot of decisions they

:17:18. > :17:21.make will be to do with that. There will be influences from UK Labour as

:17:22. > :17:24.well but I do think people need to look very carefully and not make

:17:25. > :17:29.sleeping assumptions about the way people vote particular ways. We have

:17:30. > :17:41.seen differences between similar constituencies in the Valleys. When

:17:42. > :17:47.Peter Hain and Leighton Andrews say that. When people read about the

:17:48. > :17:52.anti-Semitism row, for example, and then people go to the polls...

:17:53. > :17:56.It was unnecessary and unhelpful what's Ken Livingstone did last

:17:57. > :18:00.week. Most people would assume what you don't get from Labour. That is

:18:01. > :18:04.no doubt he has upset people, heat it will have affected some votes.

:18:05. > :18:10.Peter Hain is calling on Jeremy Corbyn is of his game.

:18:11. > :18:17.What's Jeremy has done now with having an enquiry is important. She

:18:18. > :18:24.is a no holds barred person. People are seeing that action being taken

:18:25. > :18:31.and will mum more of that. In terms of the Conservatives, Anthony

:18:32. > :18:34.pickles, a disappointing night. We still have some of the Cardiff seats

:18:35. > :18:40.to come but what has gone wrong? Last year, general election was

:18:41. > :18:46.dominated with Assembly issues like and education. Depo were expecting a

:18:47. > :18:51.region of that campaign. But we are in a different time altogether.

:18:52. > :18:59.Interestingly, as Jocelyn said, only one seat has changed hands. It is a

:19:00. > :19:04.mixed bag. If you look at the three seats we currently held on to. All

:19:05. > :19:10.three of them in the last Assembly elections looked shaky. They are

:19:11. > :19:16.positive results. Aberconwy was a three way marginal. Clwyd Valley,

:19:17. > :19:21.Labour were targeting it. Montgomeryshire, that is a surprise

:19:22. > :19:24.gain last time round. There are eight constituencies left to go and

:19:25. > :19:33.some are important ones. In terms of the performance of your

:19:34. > :19:38.party and of your leader, you were riding a crest of a wave when you

:19:39. > :19:41.look at previous election results. 2011 Assembly elections were the

:19:42. > :19:46.best you have done and then last year, shocking everybody the waves

:19:47. > :19:55.swept to power in some of the seats, Gower for example. Then there was a

:19:56. > :19:58.great deal of admiration and even a little fear I think for the strategy

:19:59. > :20:03.you had in terms of targeting your call vote and getting them out.

:20:04. > :20:08.People were worried about that. But that strategy seems to have failed

:20:09. > :20:13.in this case. The 2015 general election was a different campaign to

:20:14. > :20:18.this one. If you think about the simplicity of the narratives in the

:20:19. > :20:23.2015 general election. When I had written out along economic plan I

:20:24. > :20:30.could see was a point on focusing on the economy. But isn't it about your

:20:31. > :20:36.call voters? It has been a different direction. At the weekend, I

:20:37. > :20:41.described it as a cocktail of distraction from across Offa's Dyke

:20:42. > :20:48.with things like the Panama papers and Brexit. People in other parties

:20:49. > :20:52.have said on the doorstep those issues have come very much to the

:20:53. > :20:56.fore of people's minds. There is no getting away from that when you look

:20:57. > :21:04.at how you target your messaging. Can I make the point that... I will

:21:05. > :21:07.come back to you because I know you haven't had your say. We're waiting

:21:08. > :21:15.to hear from the Welsh Labour leader, Carwyn Jones. Oh, he's not

:21:16. > :21:22.there yet. Maybe there is time to squeeze in a few more comments.

:21:23. > :21:29.Ukip, Sam Gould, Carwyn Jones isn't quite ready. In terms of the Ukip

:21:30. > :21:34.performance, it looks broadly along similar lines to last year.

:21:35. > :21:40.Obviously, you didn't field candidates in 2011. How would you

:21:41. > :21:46.analyse the performance this evening? It has been a fantastic

:21:47. > :21:51.performance. In many of our constituencies we are surpassing 20%

:21:52. > :21:55.in terms of our performance in Merthyr Tydfil, in Caerphilly, is

:21:56. > :22:00.slowing and Torfaen. We saw 23% there. That is a massive

:22:01. > :22:04.improvements for us. We are building up on last year and it shows real

:22:05. > :22:10.good prospects for the regional vote. Thank you very much.

:22:11. > :22:17.We can now hear from Carwyn Jones. I think he can here. Good morning and

:22:18. > :22:23.congratulations on present. You must be disappointed about losing Rhondda

:22:24. > :22:30.and Leighton Andrews. He will be a loss to the Assembly

:22:31. > :22:37.and the party. Disappointing to see Leighton Andrews loses seat. We have

:22:38. > :22:41.won Llanelli, we have won Gower. Optimistic about doing better than

:22:42. > :22:48.people thought we would do at the beginning of the night. We haven't

:22:49. > :22:55.seen a Tory surge. Yes, of course, used as appointment in Rhondda. But

:22:56. > :23:00.certainly encouraging signs especially the seeds we lost in the

:23:01. > :23:03.general election that we have held. There are encouraging signs for you

:23:04. > :23:10.but you must be disappointed about Blaenau Gwent. What happened there

:23:11. > :23:14.where the majority was down to 600? There seems to be a number of local

:23:15. > :23:19.issues that Plaid Cymru capitalised on and they become the vehicle to

:23:20. > :23:25.express people boss Mike discontent. That seems to be what happened

:23:26. > :23:29.there. It wasn't a pattern that was repeated in other constituencies in

:23:30. > :23:36.the area. What do you think went wrong in the

:23:37. > :23:41.Rhondda? It is difficult to know because it

:23:42. > :23:45.isn't something we saw coming. We will have to look at what happened

:23:46. > :23:53.in the last few days. I suspect. It isn't clear. We will see what the

:23:54. > :23:57.result was, but it was unexpected. It is out of kilter with the other

:23:58. > :23:59.constituencies around it. That is something we will have to discuss

:24:00. > :24:05.with Leighton Andrews and party members.

:24:06. > :24:09.Your poorest performances have been by two former controversial

:24:10. > :24:15.ministers. You have had some tough words with both of them, you have

:24:16. > :24:20.sacked both of them at different times. Could this be down to their

:24:21. > :24:24.personalities putt-mac no, I don't think so.

:24:25. > :24:34.They were particular circumstances invoked constituencies. What we saw

:24:35. > :24:38.there were the local issues that were specific to those two seas but

:24:39. > :24:42.we didn't see in neighbouring constituencies and we have to find

:24:43. > :24:46.out how we deal with those issues and how we fight back in future.

:24:47. > :24:52.On that point, both Leighton Andrews and Peter Hain mentioned lessons to

:24:53. > :24:59.be learnt and questions to be raised about the UK leadership. Jeremy

:25:00. > :25:05.Corbyn did visit but you had to deal with the divisions within the party

:25:06. > :25:08.on a UK level, the row over anti-Semitism and so forth. But you

:25:09. > :25:12.agree there are lessons to be learnt there and that it hasn't helped you

:25:13. > :25:19.at all? It hasn't helped. The lesson is it

:25:20. > :25:24.is important for politicians in London not to say things that are

:25:25. > :25:28.unhelpful to colleagues and the rest of the UK. But that is not the

:25:29. > :25:35.reason why we were not successful in the Rhondda. It isn't the reason for

:25:36. > :25:38.the swing we saw in Blaenau Gwent. We have helped our ground, held

:25:39. > :25:42.season loss of the general election that is encouraging. We have asked

:25:43. > :25:49.you throughout the campaign to speculate on any deals. It is 6:30am

:25:50. > :25:53.after the election. Ie Ready to start talking potential deals or is

:25:54. > :26:00.it still too early? Given Leanne Wood's success with the one you

:26:01. > :26:05.would pick the phone up to? Let's see what the arithmetic is

:26:06. > :26:11.like when we have all the results declared. All parties will assess

:26:12. > :26:15.their position. It isn't clear what our numbers will be at this stage.

:26:16. > :26:24.I'm sure there will be a lot of thought given to the future looks

:26:25. > :26:27.like at the weekend. What is important is to get a government in

:26:28. > :26:34.place that is stable. We will have to see what happens in the next 24

:26:35. > :26:40.hours and beyond. You must have a figure, as low as you will go to go

:26:41. > :26:50.alone. I don't know what our final share of

:26:51. > :26:50.the vote or number of seats will be. At the moment we are focusing on

:26:51. > :26:55.making sure we maximise the vote that we hold of the challenges that

:26:56. > :26:57.we had in some seats, particularly those we lost in the general

:26:58. > :27:04.election. We have to take you step-by-step. Thank you very much

:27:05. > :27:11.for joining us from Bridgend and congratulations again on your

:27:12. > :27:12.personal victory. Vaughan Roderick, a very good morning. Our Welsh

:27:13. > :27:18.affairs editor has joined us. What did you make of this? This is the

:27:19. > :27:20.first time we have had your analysis.

:27:21. > :27:26.It is a fascinating election although as so often with Welsh

:27:27. > :27:31.Assembly elections not much will change. You have this funnel effect

:27:32. > :27:36.of huge variations particularly in the Labour vote producing narrow

:27:37. > :27:42.variations in the number of seats. Without doubt, occur singly

:27:43. > :27:48.disappointing night for two parties. The Welsh Conservatives and the

:27:49. > :27:55.Welsh Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrat could see it coming. This

:27:56. > :27:56.was the last election of the old cycle for the Liberal Democrats. The

:27:57. > :28:01.rebuilding begins for them next year. This was always good to be

:28:02. > :28:04.damage limitation. The Conservatives did not see this coming. Two months

:28:05. > :28:17.ago we will update conference, they had the clear game plan. They knew

:28:18. > :28:18.who their voters were, they were going to hit them relentlessly,

:28:19. > :28:25.talking about health. When things go wrong? I think they started to go

:28:26. > :28:27.wrong when Andrew RT Davies and announced that he was planning to

:28:28. > :28:32.back Brexit. I don't think he needed to announce a decision at that

:28:33. > :28:38.stage. It immediately made things difficult, it immediately created

:28:39. > :28:45.almost War situation between himself and David Cameron. He lost the

:28:46. > :28:48.confidence, certainly, of the bulk of the Welsh Conservative MPs in

:28:49. > :28:54.Westminster and some members of his own group in the Cardiff Bay group.

:28:55. > :28:59.Everything that could go on wrong has gone wrong for the Welsh

:29:00. > :29:05.Conservatives in terms of the campaign. Those north-east Wales

:29:06. > :29:09.results, if they are matched in Cardiff, will, I think, spell the

:29:10. > :29:15.end of Andrew RT Davies's leadership. Labour will be pleased

:29:16. > :29:22.tonight. He will lose, who is retiring, told me weeks ago that

:29:23. > :29:28.never end estimate the lack of Carwyn Jones. He is a lucky general.

:29:29. > :29:31.The distribution of the Labour vote. It is down substantially but the

:29:32. > :29:36.distribution of the Labour vote where it absorbs big falls in

:29:37. > :29:44.stronghold seats while holding up in marginal seats is exactly what

:29:45. > :29:50.happened in 2010. If Labour comeback, a lot depends on three

:29:51. > :29:54.seats in Cardiff and available Morgan. If Labour comeback with 28

:29:55. > :29:59.seats, they will be delighted. Would they go it alone?

:30:00. > :30:06.It depends. You have some wild cards. You have Kirsty Williams,

:30:07. > :30:12.possibly another Liberal Democrats, we don't know. You also have Dafydd

:30:13. > :30:18.Elis-Thomas. I don't know if you heard his speech when he said he

:30:19. > :30:25.won't comment on national results tonight.

:30:26. > :30:33.That may give Carwyn Jones pause for thought and maybe there is some

:30:34. > :30:40.case-by-case deals that can be done with Kirsty Williams and David Ellis

:30:41. > :30:42.Thomas, if he's on 28. If he drops below that, who knows? It takes two

:30:43. > :30:49.to tango. He has ruled out deals with Ukip and the Conservatives and

:30:50. > :30:54.I have great doubts whether Plaid wants to do a coalition deal. What

:30:55. > :31:00.do you make of Leanne Wood 's' victory? What does that say about

:31:01. > :31:03.the position of the party? Do you think the results we have seen

:31:04. > :31:13.across the valleys really show that Plaid are bedding in?

:31:14. > :31:14.I am going to quote one of Mike German's favourite phrases. It is a

:31:15. > :31:18.favourite phrase of the Liberal Democrats. Where we work, we win.

:31:19. > :31:23.What you see in the Labour strongholds in the valleys,

:31:24. > :31:33.particularly where Labour control the local councils, where Plaid have

:31:34. > :31:37.put in the work, not just Rhondda, it is Caerphilly. Plaid have had

:31:38. > :31:41.good results. What they didn't get this time that they got in 1999 was

:31:42. > :31:47.good result in seats where they have done no work. They had good work in

:31:48. > :31:49.places like Pontypridd, Kai Winn Valley. Where they put in the

:31:50. > :31:54.effort, they showed they could still compete with Labour for that

:31:55. > :31:59.left-wing vote. There is one great myth in Welsh politics. If you look

:32:00. > :32:04.at the polling, it is very interesting. We have this concept of

:32:05. > :32:10.the Labour voter in the valleys as being this elderly, retired miner

:32:11. > :32:12.sat in a pub with a pint. That is not the case. If you dig down into

:32:13. > :32:18.the opinion polling, Labour running third amongst voters over XT at the

:32:19. > :32:28.moment. Labour's strength, along with Plaid, is with the under 40s.

:32:29. > :32:30.Labour is around 40%. Labour and Plaid are fighting for the same

:32:31. > :32:38.constituency, which is the constituency of the younger voter.

:32:39. > :32:43.To pick up on the question of the Tory campaign, with the three

:32:44. > :32:50.results from Cardiff, they will be key in terms of final numbers.

:32:51. > :32:54.Cardiff North and Vale in terms of the Conservative campaign, got to be

:32:55. > :32:57.questions about Brecon and Radnorshire, in particular. They are

:32:58. > :33:05.up against huge personal support Kirsty Williams. But a complete

:33:06. > :33:10.failure to capitalise on the momentum that was won in the general

:33:11. > :33:14.election, where they completely reversed the majority held by the

:33:15. > :33:21.Liberal Democrats as a result of infighting over the selection of one

:33:22. > :33:29.of their candidates. In north-east Wales. Both of us reported on the

:33:30. > :33:36.Welsh conference. Traditionally the platform in which you start building

:33:37. > :33:41.the bedrock of the campaign. Alan Caines, seems like hours ago, denied

:33:42. > :33:45.there was any difference. David Cameron was a matter of feet away

:33:46. > :33:52.from Andrew RT Davies. The most high-profile farm in Wales, using

:33:53. > :33:54.his speech to talk about how a Brexit, which Andrew RT Davies

:33:55. > :33:58.campaign for, would ruin the Welsh farming industry. Behind Welsh

:33:59. > :34:04.Conservatives were furious with David Cameron for the way he did

:34:05. > :34:09.that. It was not a good start. The dynamics between Labour in London

:34:10. > :34:13.and in Wales, and also on the Tory side, they have been fascinating

:34:14. > :34:19.throughout the campaign, the way they have ebbed and flowed. Almost

:34:20. > :34:22.mirror images of each other. Thank you very much. Preseli Pembrokeshire

:34:23. > :34:50.is declaring. Davies Paul Windsor, Welsh

:34:51. > :35:00.Conservative party candidate,, 11,000 123 -- 11,123. Bob Kilmister,

:35:01. > :35:19.Welsh Liberal Democrats, 1,677. Howard Lilyman, Ukip Wales, 3,286.

:35:20. > :35:38.Dan Lodge, Welsh Labour, 7,193. John

:35:39. > :36:27.Osmond, Plaid Cymru, 3,957. Paul Davies, I give public notice

:36:28. > :36:35.that Paul Davies is duly elected as the Assembly member for the Preseli

:36:36. > :36:41.Pembrokeshire constituency. APPLAUSE

:36:42. > :36:48.There we go. Paul Davies is re-elected for the Preseli

:36:49. > :36:57.Pembrokeshire seat. Turnout of 50%, a majority of 3930. A prominent

:36:58. > :37:01.member and if we look at the share of the vote... 39% for the

:37:02. > :37:09.Conservatives, Labour in second place with 25. Plaid Cymru on 14,

:37:10. > :37:13.Ukip on 12, Liberal Democrats on six, the Greens on four and the one

:37:14. > :37:18.interesting one... Let's look at the share of the vote. The movement

:37:19. > :37:25.there. We are going to go to Cardiff, because we think Cardiff

:37:26. > :37:30.Central is imminent. We are waiting for the returning officer to take

:37:31. > :37:36.control. We can see Eluned Parrott with a big rosette. She is the one

:37:37. > :37:42.hoping to take this seat from Labour and they are waiting... Can't see

:37:43. > :37:47.the Labour candidate, Jenny Rathbone, so maybe they are looking

:37:48. > :37:57.for her. What do you read into that? She's not there. She has done a

:37:58. > :38:00.runner? They are looking for her. It is a crucial constituency for the

:38:01. > :38:06.Liberal Democrats and Labour in terms of numbers. I am told it is

:38:07. > :38:12.the only constituency in Wales without a fan. It is!. A quick word

:38:13. > :38:19.about Paul Davies... Here she is. Jenny Rathbone, a former journalist

:38:20. > :38:28.and former TV producer, so there we are. We have two Big Brother

:38:29. > :38:47.contestants. There we go. We might have the results.

:38:48. > :38:58.SHE SPEAKS WELSH I, the undersigned, being the

:38:59. > :39:02.constituency returning officer for the above named constituency of

:39:03. > :39:05.Cardiff Central, year by give notice that the total number of votes

:39:06. > :39:20.recorded for each candidate at the election was as follows. Jane Croad,

:39:21. > :39:42.Independent, 212. Mohammed Islam, Ukip Wales, 1,223. Eluned Parrott,

:39:43. > :40:10.Welsh Liberal Democrats, 9,199. Jenny Rathbone, Welsh Labour,

:40:11. > :40:33.10,116. Glyn Wise, Plaid Cymru,. 1,951. Amelia Womack, Green party,

:40:34. > :40:42.1,150. Joel Williams, Welsh Conservative party candidate, 2,317.

:40:43. > :41:12.Daniel... Oh, gosh. SEPAKS WELSH. Beyond dimension

:41:13. > :41:16.present has been duly elected to serve as member for the

:41:17. > :41:21.constituency. Jenny Rathbone. Here we are. Maybe she was busy writing a

:41:22. > :41:25.speech which she was about to deliver. Shaking the hand of Eluned

:41:26. > :41:29.Parrott, who hoped to take the seat. Jenny Rathbone remains in Cardiff

:41:30. > :41:35.Central, key seat in a battle ground. If we look at the share of

:41:36. > :41:42.the vote, 39% for Labour and the Lib Dems, 35%. The Conservatives on 9%,

:41:43. > :41:48.Plaid Cymru, 7%, Ukip, 5%, and the Greens on four. The change since the

:41:49. > :41:54.last time, Labour just edging up 1%. The Liberal Democrats down 3%. That

:41:55. > :41:59.was a crucial result, wasn't it? Absolutely crucial for two parties.

:42:00. > :42:04.Virtually guarantees... We haven't had all the regional votes, but we

:42:05. > :42:09.can virtually guarantee that Kirsty Williams will be the only Liberal

:42:10. > :42:17.Democrat in the next Assembly. It puts her in a very weak position in

:42:18. > :42:17.terms of speaking in the party and a weak position in terms of not having

:42:18. > :42:21.the sort of finances and backing that group status for which you have

:42:22. > :42:26.three members. It is also crucial for Labour. Every single seat is

:42:27. > :42:30.crucial for Labour. These southern regions, remember, any seats that

:42:31. > :42:37.Labour loses, it has no chance at all of getting a list offset. It is

:42:38. > :42:40.-- it is one of the total. Labour are creeping up towards what they

:42:41. > :42:45.really thought would be the top limit of their expectations at this

:42:46. > :42:50.election. You can do some back of the envelope calculations. They were

:42:51. > :42:54.at birdie, they have lost the Rhondda. -- 30. We will wait to see

:42:55. > :43:00.what Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan could bring. It could be

:43:01. > :43:06.they maybe lose eight list seat in West Wales. The range is somewhere

:43:07. > :43:15.between 28 and 26, which the party would have taken up the start. That

:43:16. > :43:20.is why you still, at 6:45am, it is a slightly muted reaction. A lot of

:43:21. > :43:27.joy implied Comrie for that one result in the Rhondda, but still

:43:28. > :43:30.people... There is no cause for celebration from anywhere. The other

:43:31. > :43:33.factor that I haven't spoken about, but I'm sure you have, is that you

:43:34. > :43:38.have the new presence in the Assembly of Ukip. That is something

:43:39. > :43:45.that the other parties are looking at and thinking, well, what is that

:43:46. > :43:52.dynamic going to be? Some of them hate Ukip, others are suspicious of

:43:53. > :43:59.Ukip. All of them have their doubts about how coherent group might be

:44:00. > :44:02.and they worry about what that might do to committees and so on. There is

:44:03. > :44:06.that wild card, as well. I should have said when I was saying you have

:44:07. > :44:14.had two parties which would be pretty pleased, the party which will

:44:15. > :44:17.be most pleased is Ukip. There were genuine questions because so much of

:44:18. > :44:22.their money and effort has gone into the Brexit campaign, whether that

:44:23. > :44:32.boat that was showing up in the polls would show up in -- on polling

:44:33. > :44:35.day. Not just in Wales, this is big for the party in the UK. We have had

:44:36. > :44:41.predictions in Wales varying from five to one pundit saying nine or

:44:42. > :44:44.ten. That is stretching it? You can make calculations by looking at the

:44:45. > :44:51.constituency numbers from particular regions. From my mental

:44:52. > :44:54.calculations, I think, for instance, South Wales West, if the regional

:44:55. > :44:58.vote is the same as the constituency, you would have two

:44:59. > :45:11.Plaid Cymru list members, one Ukip, one Tory. It wouldn't take much to

:45:12. > :45:12.switch that to two Ukip. You can be absolutely certain that there will

:45:13. > :45:15.be at least one in every region. I am pretty certain there will be a

:45:16. > :45:18.second Ukip one in South Wales East. South Wales Central I think is a bit

:45:19. > :45:35.dependent on those seats we are waiting to see.

:45:36. > :45:47.Julie Morgan, who gave us that quote from early on, saying she wasn't

:45:48. > :45:54.confident. It is interesting there was one dead man walking in this

:45:55. > :45:58.election that virtually no one from the Assembly seeing lose his seat

:45:59. > :46:05.was David Mele who was number two on the regional list. It may be the

:46:06. > :46:09.fact the Conservatives have failed to win any constituency seats in

:46:10. > :46:15.South Wales Central and Plaid Cymru has won and Rhondda, that may allow

:46:16. > :46:23.him to creep in. I would imagine that we are in a situation where

:46:24. > :46:27.there is a definite, probably, three way fight between conservatives,

:46:28. > :46:32.Ukip and Plaid for the last list seat in South Wales Central. Just

:46:33. > :46:37.one thought. If Kirsty Williams is the only member for the Lib Dems,

:46:38. > :46:43.Presiding Officer? The theory is doing the rounds. My understanding

:46:44. > :46:46.of it is Kirsty Williams was interested in being presiding

:46:47. > :46:55.officers if they were three Liberal Democrats. To pull out back from

:46:56. > :46:56.active politics so there was no Liberal Democrat voice in the

:46:57. > :47:03.chamber, I think that might be difficult for her. People would

:47:04. > :47:08.understand if she took the attitude she has laid everything on the line

:47:09. > :47:11.for her party, she has left everything on the field for the

:47:12. > :47:16.party despite its going into a coalition in Westminster which she

:47:17. > :47:19.deeply disapproved. Privately, she hated the idea of the Liberal

:47:20. > :47:26.Democrats being in coalition with the Conservatives in Westminster.

:47:27. > :47:32.Even people within the party would say, the Liberal Democrats hope -- O

:47:33. > :47:43.Kirsty Williams more. She delivered her best personnel result. Let's go

:47:44. > :47:47.over to Felicity on the sofa. Let's get Mike German's views on

:47:48. > :47:52.that. A fantastic personal results for Kirsty Williams. Can I put this

:47:53. > :48:03.in context. I agree with Vaughan Roderick. I would like to say the

:48:04. > :48:10.worst points for us as a party was last year's general election. As

:48:11. > :48:14.Bourne said, we are on a new cycle. What I was looking for and what the

:48:15. > :48:21.party was looking for was progress from last year. We know where the

:48:22. > :48:24.popular vote, so far, from the figures we have seen, we have moved

:48:25. > :48:30.forward in the popular vote. The Corner has been turned and

:48:31. > :48:40.unfortunately it didn't turn far enough addressing Cardiff Central.

:48:41. > :48:46.It is difficult decision now for Kirsty. It was a fabulous personal

:48:47. > :48:52.result. We don't know, and I think it'll be unwise for anyone to say,

:48:53. > :48:55.how these regional votes will be different from the constituency

:48:56. > :49:00.votes. We can't translate them immediately over. People will vote

:49:01. > :49:09.as they think is set on has been a campaign for Labour voters in most

:49:10. > :49:11.of Wales not to waste their list vote and move it elsewhere, that

:49:12. > :49:15.might happen. Those votes are being counted. We will have to wait and

:49:16. > :49:21.see what happens in this last section of the last 20 seats which

:49:22. > :49:26.have been delivered. Certainly, the only positive thing I am drawing

:49:27. > :49:31.upon from today is, to positive things, one is the very substantial

:49:32. > :49:35.result, incredible results, given we lost is by 5000 votes last time, as

:49:36. > :49:41.she has a huge majority which is much bigger than she ever had before

:49:42. > :49:46.in Brecon and Radnorshire secondly, we have started to turn around a

:49:47. > :49:55.natural vote and to restore that vote. Next year's local elections

:49:56. > :50:00.will be an important step for us to take even further.

:50:01. > :50:10.Mike German, thank you. You have been waiting patiently to say you're

:50:11. > :50:12.forced with this on how you think... Well, to share your analysis on the

:50:13. > :50:22.Green Party. It is an exciting night for them. We fielded more candidates

:50:23. > :50:23.than ever before. We are aiming for success on the lists and we haven't

:50:24. > :50:32.had those results yet. Who knows happen? The seismic shift in

:50:33. > :50:38.Rhondda, Kirsty Williams's success. The eternal optimists, the Green

:50:39. > :50:43.Party! On the doorstop people saying they want to change and people have

:50:44. > :50:52.demonstrated that. Very active members of Plaid went Labour have

:50:53. > :50:57.said they understand the second list vote is a waste in some cases. Has

:50:58. > :51:01.Ukip crowded you out? You want to present itself as the alternative

:51:02. > :51:04.but Ukip has been doing so successfully for disenchanted

:51:05. > :51:10.voters. They have been doing that very well and tonight will prove

:51:11. > :51:14.that. The future they are presenting is a world away from ours. They are

:51:15. > :51:23.one extreme and we have another. The other politics of division -- they

:51:24. > :51:33.are politics of division. We don't have a Ukip candidate here to be

:51:34. > :51:37.offended by that. Thank you. Mike, to go back to the Liberal Democrats

:51:38. > :51:41.and very building, I know you say party membership is on the increase

:51:42. > :51:47.and that gives you grounds for optimism but when you have got 1am

:51:48. > :51:50.in the Assembly, assuming that is the case, you don't get recognised

:51:51. > :51:53.as a proper party, you don't get support structures. All the

:51:54. > :52:01.scaffolding is taken away. It is going to be a very hard job. I have

:52:02. > :52:09.been there before, we have done this before. It is easy to do in a local

:52:10. > :52:16.election for a whole constituency. We know what to do. If you look

:52:17. > :52:21.around the English local government elections you will see some

:52:22. > :52:26.incredible victories that people are scoring for the Liberal Democrats in

:52:27. > :52:30.these last 24 hours. I don't for one minute think we don't know how to do

:52:31. > :52:34.it. Always in our parties has been based upon the volunteers, the

:52:35. > :52:48.people who will turn out, the people who will knock on doors. You

:52:49. > :52:54.don't... It is your members who knock on the doors and do that kind

:52:55. > :52:57.of work. We will all quote you to night on where you work, you win a

:52:58. > :53:08.point. Vaughan Roderick was quoting Mike German. I think it was good,

:53:09. > :53:12.old-fashioned doorknocking. The way we have seen the impact in the seats

:53:13. > :53:16.you mention in Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent and Rhondda. We don't know

:53:17. > :53:23.what has happened yet in Cardiff because they haven't been announced.

:53:24. > :53:28.Maybe Cardiff West is where we have knocked the most doors. They may be

:53:29. > :53:37.local circumstances that we have charismatic candidates. I think that

:53:38. > :53:41.shows the Labour vote is soft. It is a soft vote and it is therefore the

:53:42. > :53:55.taking if we are prepared to lock doors. Labour's share is down.

:53:56. > :53:59.Jocelyn is right on knocking doors that of the video get away from the

:54:00. > :54:02.fact that speech that Leanne Wood gave in 2013 when she committed her

:54:03. > :54:11.leadership winning Rhondda was an important milestone. It set the

:54:12. > :54:12.course for all of the UK press attention they had been getting

:54:13. > :54:17.stuck she is that a very talented team behind who have gone out there

:54:18. > :54:25.and copied SNP's narrative when it comes to things like question Time

:54:26. > :54:27.and Andrew Marr. The success of her being on those UK TV debates lusty

:54:28. > :54:34.was significant. There were no Northern Irish leaders there. They

:54:35. > :54:40.muscled their way in. Nia Griffith, is the Labour vote

:54:41. > :54:46.soft? It is important what local councils do. Where you have well run

:54:47. > :54:50.councils, for example, Bridgend, you get the response you get in the

:54:51. > :54:56.results we have seen. A positive response to Labour. In other areas,

:54:57. > :54:58.whether from external factors because they have been cuts coming

:54:59. > :55:04.down from the Conservative governments down from Westminster,

:55:05. > :55:11.or whether it is because there are some councils that aren't getting

:55:12. > :55:14.things right with local people, there are opportunities for people

:55:15. > :55:22.to come in. The Labour Party have to take that seriously. We are going to

:55:23. > :55:27.go to Cardiff North. We have got a declaration.

:55:28. > :55:35.The Cardiff North is it immensely. Bass constituency.

:55:36. > :55:39.Ie the undersigned being the constituency returning officer for

:55:40. > :55:45.the above named constituency, Cardiff North, hereby give notice

:55:46. > :55:51.that the total number of votes recorded for each candidate is as

:55:52. > :55:58.follows: Fiona Burt, independent following bass 846.

:55:59. > :56:21.Jayne Cowan, Wales Conservative Party candidate, 13000 and 99.

:56:22. > :56:29.John Dixon, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 1130.

:56:30. > :56:47.Julie Morgan, Welsh Labour, 16700 and 66.

:56:48. > :57:02.Haydn Rushworth, Ukip Wales, 2509. Chris von Ruhland, Wales Green

:57:03. > :57:08.Party, 824. Elin Walker Jones, Plaid Cymru,

:57:09. > :57:28.2278. At the end of mentioned person has

:57:29. > :57:38.been elected to serve as member for the said constituency. Julie Morgan.

:57:39. > :57:51.Julie Morgan, she remains as the AM for Cardiff North and it was quite a

:57:52. > :58:06.fight. There you go, we finally got the results. If we look at the shed

:58:07. > :58:08.of the vote. There we go. No, that is Cardiff Central. We will bring

:58:09. > :58:15.you Cardiff North as we get it. Julie Morgan securing Cardiff North.

:58:16. > :58:23.So, what did you make of that? We only have one seat changing hands in

:58:24. > :58:29.this whole election. I know, it has been a long mice for one seat! That

:58:30. > :58:37.is another stunning results for Labour. I think I'm right in saying

:58:38. > :58:37.she has increased her majority. Did you notice the turnout is coming out

:58:38. > :58:44.at 57%. Highly than Brecon and Radnorshire. That is quite a prize.

:58:45. > :58:49.That is a stunning results for the Labour Party. And for Julie Morgan

:58:50. > :58:54.personally. Jayne Cowan is a very popular local councillor with a big

:58:55. > :59:02.base in the constituency and yet Julie Morgan has pushed her back

:59:03. > :59:08.very effectively. Valerie, good morning. Thank you for

:59:09. > :59:11.joining us. What did you make of the results so far and looking at

:59:12. > :59:17.Cardiff North in particular? Just reflecting was Richard was

:59:18. > :59:19.saying, it is a bit of an odd election. We have got is one massive

:59:20. > :59:25.story coming out of Leanne Wood's wing of Rhondda. In Cardiff North,

:59:26. > :59:32.the turnout was high to stop is it because there was a clear campaign

:59:33. > :59:32.on the ground? It makes people excited and makes them turnouts to

:59:33. > :59:39.vote. We will be with you shortly but it

:59:40. > :59:46.is coming up to seven o'clock. It is morning. It is seven o'clock on

:59:47. > :59:53.Friday the 6th of May so we will be looking again at some of the

:59:54. > :59:54.results. We have Cardiff North in and we are waiting for a few others.

:59:55. > :00:04.If you have been with us all night you will know the big story is the

:00:05. > :00:17.Rhondda. It is now seven o'clock on Friday the 6th of May.

:00:18. > :00:23.Good morning, it is the 6th of May and it is 7am. Welcome if you are

:00:24. > :00:28.just joined us and huge congratulations if you have stayed

:00:29. > :00:30.with us all night. What a night it has been. The results of the

:00:31. > :00:36.election are still coming in. The headlight so far, Labour are set to

:00:37. > :00:40.be by far the biggest party in the new Assembly, but are not likely to

:00:41. > :00:45.have a majority. One of their big beasts won't be returning to Cardiff

:00:46. > :00:53.Bay. Leanne Wood beat Labour's Leighton Andrews in the Rhondda. We

:00:54. > :00:55.will have much more for you between now and about 9am. Live interviews,

:00:56. > :00:59.analysis and coverage of the results that are still coming in this

:01:00. > :01:03.morning. It has been an election night with many ups and downs all

:01:04. > :01:11.over Wales and our political correspondence is with us. Tell us

:01:12. > :01:15.how it all happen. An interesting night. The story so far is Labour

:01:16. > :01:21.staying intact as the biggest party in Wales against the backdrop of

:01:22. > :01:28.plenty of them saying they have had a better night than expected. There

:01:29. > :01:29.is a standout result from one seat and that is Leanne Wood 's' victory

:01:30. > :01:36.in the Rhondda, the plight Comrie reader, the Battle Royale against

:01:37. > :01:38.Leighton Andrews, the former AM cabinet minister, but a Cabinet

:01:39. > :01:48.minister no longer. Around 5am today, we got this result from the

:01:49. > :01:52.Rhondda. I do hereby declare that the said Leanne Wood is duly elected

:01:53. > :02:02.for the Rhondda constituency. A new dawn is about to break in Wales.

:02:03. > :02:09.Here in the Rhondda, and new dawn has already broken over the valleys.

:02:10. > :02:11.People have voted for change. A majority of more than 6700 votes.

:02:12. > :02:15.Labour gone, big swing to plight Comrie. Big relief, Leanne Wood has

:02:16. > :02:28.an achievement she can point to after her 4-mac you -- four years.

:02:29. > :02:31.Its heartland in the north and South West, but at this stage, if we were

:02:32. > :02:40.seeing a big change in Plaid sweeping into power, they would have

:02:41. > :02:45.had more Rhondda style results such as in Llanelli. Labour kept as

:02:46. > :02:49.majority there, and Plaid has one before -- one Rhondda before. The

:02:50. > :02:55.Labour machine couldn't hold back Leanne Wood. Here is what defeated

:02:56. > :02:59.Leighton Andrews had to say. I think there are lessons for the Labour

:03:00. > :03:03.Party which we need to consider, lessons locally, lessons at a Welsh

:03:04. > :03:08.level and lessons for the party at a UK level. What I am pleased about is

:03:09. > :03:12.what I am hearing, the victories for my Labour colleagues across Wales. I

:03:13. > :03:15.am pleased to have been part of Carwyn Jones' come team for this

:03:16. > :03:20.election. We have seen of the Conservative challenge in many parts

:03:21. > :03:26.of Wales and we are delivering strong leadership and strong results

:03:27. > :03:30.with Labour candidates across Wales. Let's pick up what Leighton Andrews

:03:31. > :03:32.said there are about seeing of conservative challenges,

:03:33. > :03:45.particularly in north-east Wales, a of seats in places such as the Vale

:03:46. > :03:46.of Clwyd. Last year, they couldn't repeat the success this year. Tory

:03:47. > :03:50.target seats in the Gower, in Cardiff North, where we just had

:03:51. > :03:57.that result. Labour vote down in some places, up in others. Cardiff

:03:58. > :04:00.North Labour increasing their majority. All in all, a good night

:04:01. > :04:03.for Labour. Peter Hain, former Welsh Secretary, says better than expected

:04:04. > :04:09.despite the loss of his close friend. Where the Tories have a

:04:10. > :04:12.strong incumbency factor, they have done well. In Clyde West, where

:04:13. > :04:18.Darren Millar has been returned as the Tory AM and we can hear from him

:04:19. > :04:26.next. It is disappointing when you fail to win seats that you want at

:04:27. > :04:27.the general election, of course it is. You mustn't underestimate what

:04:28. > :04:33.we have achieved. When you look at the reduction in the majority in the

:04:34. > :04:36.Vale of Clywd, next door, we had a very hard-working candidates, who

:04:37. > :04:43.has pounded those streets every day for many weeks. You fail to

:04:44. > :04:48.underestimate just the enormous achievement that it is.

:04:49. > :04:51.Disappointments, another for the Tories in Brecon and Radnorshire,

:04:52. > :04:57.where they couldn't beat the Welsh Lib Dem leader, who has increased

:04:58. > :04:58.her majority, a major victory for her. The party have thrown

:04:59. > :05:09.everything into keeping that seat, as you might expect, following the

:05:10. > :05:14.collapse in support. I dare say it Kirsty Williams especially so. Here

:05:15. > :05:21.she is speaking earlier. It is a great result, the best result I have

:05:22. > :05:22.ever achieved in Brecon and Radnorshire in terms of a majority

:05:23. > :05:26.and in terms of share of the vote. A massive turnaround for our fortunes

:05:27. > :05:32.here in Brecon and Radnorshire, after the devastating loss of the

:05:33. > :05:34.seat last year at Westminster. Only one seat has changed hands, the

:05:35. > :05:42.Rhondda, we still haven't had the Vale of Glamorgan, regional seats.

:05:43. > :05:43.Things bode well for Ukip. They are increasing their share of the vote

:05:44. > :05:49.in seats right across Wales. Which brings us neatly onto the leader of

:05:50. > :05:53.Ukip, Nigel Farage, who joins us from Westminster. Good morning. Good

:05:54. > :05:59.morning. The regional seats you tidied it had not been announced

:06:00. > :06:02.yet, but predictions between five and ten, what are you predicting an

:06:03. > :06:07.earring? I have always said we will get five, we will and I hope we get

:06:08. > :06:09.a couple more. Either way, it is a breakthrough for Ukip. We have

:06:10. > :06:15.battled away in previous Assembly elections and never got across the

:06:16. > :06:21.line. It is a breakthrough for Ukip in Wales. What does Wales mean to

:06:22. > :06:24.you? It is by to the UK, but no one. Point number two, it is one of those

:06:25. > :06:30.parts of the country that has been so badly damaged our industrial

:06:31. > :06:33.policy and buy membership of the EU, leaving us unable to control and run

:06:34. > :06:38.industries that used to provide so many jobs. How Welsh will your

:06:39. > :06:43.approach be in the Assembly, and how tailored towards Wales will it be,

:06:44. > :06:48.or is it just a vehicle for you to talk about Europe? I don't apologise

:06:49. > :06:53.for one moment that our Assembly members will talk about the most

:06:54. > :06:58.important political question of our lifetimes, namely whether we should

:06:59. > :06:59.be an Independent United Kingdom or not. Of course we will do that, but

:07:00. > :07:05.equally we will engage positively in the Assembly and, if we can help to

:07:06. > :07:12.make things better, we will. What will they talk about after June the

:07:13. > :07:13.23rd? Because that will be whatever that's results... That is the

:07:14. > :07:19.settled will of the people of the UK. You move on? I very much hope

:07:20. > :07:26.that we do become an Independent country and that Wales can see great

:07:27. > :07:28.benefits for its fishing industry, its steel industry, and many other

:07:29. > :07:33.things. But of course, one of the big questions is, why is health

:07:34. > :07:37.delivery so bad in Wales? Why is devolution in many parts of Wales

:07:38. > :07:42.not working out as well as people had hoped? Our voice will be there

:07:43. > :07:49.and if we can act constructively in any way, we will. In terms of

:07:50. > :07:54.Europe, if it did lead to this referendum, led to Brexit, and then

:07:55. > :08:00.Scotland were to decide to go it alone, is that a price worth paying

:08:01. > :08:04.to get out of Europe, the break-up of the UK? If we vote for

:08:05. > :08:08.independence, the UK, it will be strange to see Scotland voting

:08:09. > :08:16.against independence. To do so with oil as low as it currently is, I

:08:17. > :08:18.honestly don't think it will even be on the agenda. Nigel Farage, thank

:08:19. > :08:28.you very much. Let's catch up with the results in Carmarthen were. It

:08:29. > :08:33.happened a short time ago. I, Ian Westlake, constituency returning

:08:34. > :08:34.officer for the Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire constituency

:08:35. > :08:44.declare that the total number of votes given to each candidate was as

:08:45. > :08:56.follows. Valerie Bradley, Wales Green Party, 804. Allan Brookes,

:08:57. > :10:33.Ukip Wales, We clearly have big sound problems

:10:34. > :10:39.there. But surely the graphic. There it. Conservative Burns remaining in

:10:40. > :10:45.Carmarthen were. Let's look at the share of the vote there. --

:10:46. > :10:49.Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. That isn't working,

:10:50. > :10:53.either. Let's go to the Senedd, where donor has broken. What's the

:10:54. > :11:00.picture looking like now? The sun is coming up. You can see it over my

:11:01. > :11:03.shoulder. Seems to have got all the constituencies by one or two. We

:11:04. > :11:06.thought it might be worth having a look at what has happened in terms

:11:07. > :11:13.of analysing numbers. Here in the constituencies, not a lot of change.

:11:14. > :11:17.One big surprise. Maybe also look at the surprise of the seats that

:11:18. > :11:19.didn't change hands and look at why that didn't happen. Let's look at

:11:20. > :11:25.the share of the vote. This is how it looks after the votes we have had

:11:26. > :11:31.so far in terms of constituencies. Really, those views we had watching

:11:32. > :11:32.at 11pm last night might have seen the opinion poll we were showing. It

:11:33. > :11:41.is not 1 million miles away from not. Labour on 35%, Plaid Cymru on

:11:42. > :11:47.21%, conservatives on 20% and Ukip on 13%, Lib Dems on 8%, Greens on

:11:48. > :11:50.2%. Apart from the big changes we haven't been expecting, one change

:11:51. > :11:56.we have seen, of course, a seat changing hands is that from Leanne

:11:57. > :12:00.Wood 's, victory in the Rhondda against Leighton Andrews. This is

:12:01. > :12:07.what happened there. Getting a majority of the vote. 51% versus 36%

:12:08. > :12:17.for Labour. We look at the change since 2011. What happened, they're

:12:18. > :12:18.very clearly... Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru votes have been sucked

:12:19. > :12:24.away from Labour. 2000 more voters turned out this year than five years

:12:25. > :12:28.ago. It is a shift from the Labour Party to Plaid Cymru. That hasn't

:12:29. > :12:36.happened elsewhere. We would be at the beginning of the night, the

:12:37. > :12:41.Conservative target seats. I have chosen one in particular, Wrexham.

:12:42. > :12:46.It is equally valid, this analysis, in terms of the veils. Holding on in

:12:47. > :12:51.Wrexham despite a strong challenge from the Conservatives on 30%. Yes,

:12:52. > :12:57.Labour is down on their 2011 vote, but the other parties aren't getting

:12:58. > :13:01.close enough, partly because Ukip is there taking votes from a little bit

:13:02. > :13:04.of everyone and that means, unlike in Rhondda, when all the seats

:13:05. > :13:12.switched to Plaid Cymru, elsewhere we haven't seen that happening.

:13:13. > :13:15.Whether Conservatives have had a disappointing campaign, not getting

:13:16. > :13:18.the momentum they were hoping for, the other parties also not being

:13:19. > :13:22.able to land the blows they were hoping to. At the same time, a

:13:23. > :13:28.concerted effort from Labour in those areas they were most

:13:29. > :13:30.honourable, most at risk, has meant that we haven't seen any changes so

:13:31. > :13:34.far in the constituencies. However, there may be interesting times

:13:35. > :13:38.ahead. We have had pretty much all the constituencies now, but it is

:13:39. > :13:45.the regional, the 20 regional list seats we are waiting on in the next

:13:46. > :13:46.couple of hours. That is where we will probably seek seats changing

:13:47. > :13:53.hands. Thank you. One seat has changed hands so far, but much more

:13:54. > :14:01.to come may be on the list seats. Let's go to the sofa. More fresh

:14:02. > :14:07.bases here on the sofa, including the Secretary of State for Wales,

:14:08. > :14:14.Alun Cairns. Carolyn Harris of Labour and Sam Gould of Ukip, who is

:14:15. > :14:17.still here. Alun Cairns, this is turning out to be a disappointing

:14:18. > :14:25.night for the Welsh Conservatives. In terms of the swing of the vote

:14:26. > :14:26.from Labour to the Conservatives, it seems pretty strong, but not strong

:14:27. > :14:30.enough to have made those gains in the constituencies. I would love to

:14:31. > :14:37.be sat here saying, look, we got over the line in Wrexham, in Cardiff

:14:38. > :14:39.North, the Vale of Clwyd. Sadly, not to be, but the swing the overall

:14:40. > :14:42.from the Labour Party to the Conservative Party has been pretty

:14:43. > :14:47.good. We were in a position whereby in order to make progress from those

:14:48. > :14:53.14 seats, we had to win seats, we had to win constituencies, rather

:14:54. > :14:57.than the list. Clearly, our targeting has had some effect. In

:14:58. > :15:01.Gower, for example, an excellent 6% swing, building on the sorts of

:15:02. > :15:05.results we had at the general election. Clearly, it is always

:15:06. > :15:09.difficult to get Conservative voters out at an Assembly election compared

:15:10. > :15:13.to a general election. That is the problem? If you compare it to five

:15:14. > :15:17.years ago, you had your best ever performances at Assembly elections

:15:18. > :15:22.five years ago. Yes, but that resulted in the list seats rather

:15:23. > :15:24.than constituency seat. That performance is pretty much the same.

:15:25. > :15:27.You could argue it is a better performance because the percentage

:15:28. > :15:30.of the vote has risen in some of those key seat we have targeted, but

:15:31. > :15:37.hasn't risen enough in order to get through. This time, of course, there

:15:38. > :15:42.are predictions that Ukip will take six seats, maybe more, maybe fewer.

:15:43. > :15:47.Let's take six seeds as an example. That is 10% of the make-up of

:15:48. > :15:52.Assembly membership. That means the other main parties are then fighting

:15:53. > :15:55.for the 54 seats or whatever the balance is between what you give

:15:56. > :15:58.will take because they only need to get 7% of the vote. Therefore, we

:15:59. > :16:06.are being squeezed in that area. Other parties also. Was it a mistake

:16:07. > :16:08.to targets which fire on Labour? To try to challenge the Ukip threats?

:16:09. > :16:20.You are particularly vulnerable. People said we were vulnerable to

:16:21. > :16:27.Ukip at the general election. It is far more than one issue. We need to

:16:28. > :16:32.look at where we have done well, places like in Gower with a 6%

:16:33. > :16:40.swing. Nearly there doesn't cut it. I won't

:16:41. > :16:42.make excuses. I hope people will also look at the percentage of the

:16:43. > :16:48.vote which demonstrates the Conservative Party is in a strong

:16:49. > :16:53.position to build. Even in seats that we have narrowly lost, we have

:16:54. > :16:56.come from significant majorities because the majority is held in

:16:57. > :17:04.percentage terms at the Assembly elections by labour we have now lost

:17:05. > :17:05.by a small margin, a pretty big, they would be considered safe seats,

:17:06. > :17:11.but we have come close. How much pressure does this put on

:17:12. > :17:18.Andrew Arty Davies? When you look at the performance of the party

:17:19. > :17:19.leaders, Welsh Labour have run a presidential election, stacking

:17:20. > :17:21.everything around the person of Carwyn Jones. They have had a good

:17:22. > :17:36.night. A victory for Kirsty Williams in her

:17:37. > :17:38.seat of Brecon and Radnorshire. It leaves Andrew RT Davies looking like

:17:39. > :17:41.the kid at the back of the line? I will look at it like that but on

:17:42. > :17:45.the basis we have scored exceptionally well by coming very

:17:46. > :17:52.close in some seats Labour would have said were safe seats. On that

:17:53. > :17:54.basis, there are some pretty good results. I would love to say we got

:17:55. > :18:06.over the line as we did in the general election, in seats where I

:18:07. > :18:07.could demonstrate these are the results.

:18:08. > :18:21.The Vale of Glamorgan looks like it is about to declare.

:18:22. > :18:29.There is a minute to go for the Vale of Glamorgan, of course, a Labour

:18:30. > :18:36.hold at the moment, you are holding -- hoping to hold onto it, are you

:18:37. > :18:40.confident? Yes, the smile on Jane's face tells

:18:41. > :18:49.it all. Let us listen and see.

:18:50. > :18:55.Held on the fifth of bay 2016, do hereby give notice the number of

:18:56. > :19:24.votes recorded for each candidate is as follows.

:19:25. > :19:37.Lawrence Andrews coming Ukip, Wales, 3662.

:19:38. > :19:50.Denis Campbell, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 938.

:19:51. > :19:57.Ross England, Welsh Conservative Party candidate, 13800 and 78.

:19:58. > :20:07.Alison Hayden, Wales Green Party, 794.

:20:08. > :20:18.Jane Hutt, Welsh Labour, 14600 and 55.

:20:19. > :20:41.CHEERING Ian Johnson, Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales.

:20:42. > :20:50.3,871. The number of ballot papers rejected was as follows, want of an

:20:51. > :21:02.official Mark, nil. Voting for more candidates than the

:21:03. > :21:07.voter was entitled to, 44. Writing or mark by which the voter

:21:08. > :21:12.could be identified, nil. STUDIO: The result for the Vale of

:21:13. > :21:18.Glamorgan, a very relieved Jane Hutt, holding onto a key

:21:19. > :21:24.conservative target seat by a majority of 727.

:21:25. > :21:28.We will get reaction from Alun Cairns.

:21:29. > :21:35.Not a single target seat one? It is my seat, I know it

:21:36. > :21:42.exceptionally well, that was from a result of 3700, a safe seat in

:21:43. > :21:45.Assembly terms for Labour. Clearly we had that as a target. A seed we

:21:46. > :21:53.desperately wanted to pick up. Ross England has run her very close. To

:21:54. > :21:57.win by 700 is a very good swing to us but not good enough.

:21:58. > :22:03.Should Andrew Arty Davies have taken up the mantle in the Vale of

:22:04. > :22:07.Glamorgan, the way Kirsty Williams and Leanne would have, put his stake

:22:08. > :22:18.down for the constituency? Would it have made a difference? I

:22:19. > :22:18.don't think so, we had an excellent candidate in Ross England, one of

:22:19. > :22:23.the brightest candidates, this is certainly not the end of his

:22:24. > :22:28.political career. He has a long political career in front of him,

:22:29. > :22:37.just 23 years old. His results, not good enough to win

:22:38. > :22:47.but bringing it down from a 3700 majority, demonstrates a very strong

:22:48. > :22:51.win. Your reaction to holding on in terms of target seats?

:22:52. > :22:54.We have done exceptionally well, Wales Labour have had an excellent

:22:55. > :23:01.night. The Conservative Party in Wales have paid the price of

:23:02. > :23:08.national policies. You are referring to UK issues?

:23:09. > :23:13.Benefit changes, that sort of thing. I am not sure that is the case. The

:23:14. > :23:17.same UK policies apply in Scotland for which there has been a stunning

:23:18. > :23:21.result for the Conservatives in Scotland.

:23:22. > :23:24.We will return to this weather UK wide issues have affected all of

:23:25. > :23:33.this, shortly. It is time to go back to Beth.

:23:34. > :23:37.Let us speak to the winner in Cardiff North, Julie Morgan,

:23:38. > :23:40.re-elected in that constituency after quite a fight, you must be

:23:41. > :23:48.relieved? I am very pleased, particularly with

:23:49. > :23:53.the turnout which was nearly 58%. That must be one of the highest in

:23:54. > :24:00.Wales. Pleased with the majority, about 3000.

:24:01. > :24:08.Very pleased. 3667, more than you had last time.

:24:09. > :24:13.Certainly, doubled it, I think. It was a tight fight. You didn't

:24:14. > :24:18.sound confident. We had a quote from you at the beginning of the evening

:24:19. > :24:26.saying, I am not confident. Your husband clarified you are never a

:24:27. > :24:28.confident person. We are -- were you being cautious?

:24:29. > :24:34.I went into this election not sure whether I would win, whether I would

:24:35. > :24:41.get a reasonable majority. I have felt there is every election I have

:24:42. > :24:45.been in. Never presumed I would win. I was actually referring to the poll

:24:46. > :24:48.which came out yesterday which indicated a swing to the

:24:49. > :24:55.Conservatives and I thought this might affect my seat in Cardiff

:24:56. > :24:59.North. I am not confident in terms of winning.

:25:00. > :25:05.I wait and see what happens. What do you make of the results in wonder

:25:06. > :25:11.where you have lost one of your big names, Leighton Andrews?

:25:12. > :25:13.Bitterly disappointed, Leighton was a close friend and ally of Cardiff

:25:14. > :25:21.North and has come and campaigned with me. So, it is an awful blow. I

:25:22. > :25:27.am very sorry about it. We have heard from members of your

:25:28. > :25:32.party tonight. This morning, saying, lessons are to be learned

:25:33. > :25:36.particularly on a UK level. A good night for Welsh Labour but the UK

:25:37. > :25:43.picture has not helped you at all, would you endorse that?

:25:44. > :25:48.I would say that with doubling my majority in a tight seat, I don't

:25:49. > :25:57.think the issues that have happened in labour in the UK have had much

:25:58. > :25:59.effect at all. It is possible to UK issues have affected the Tory vote

:26:00. > :26:03.because that came up a lot on the doorsteps.

:26:04. > :26:10.You have represented Cardiff North in the Assembly and Westminster,

:26:11. > :26:11.clearly, you know the patch well and are looking forward to the next five

:26:12. > :26:15.years. Yes, it is a huge privilege, I am

:26:16. > :26:19.looking forward to it enormously and the things I can do with the people

:26:20. > :26:24.of Cardiff North. Like you.

:26:25. > :26:29.Congratulations. Off to bed now, I am sure, Julie Morgan, having won

:26:30. > :26:40.Cardiff North. Over two Plaid Cymru, good morning.

:26:41. > :26:42.How is it going for you? We are still waiting for the

:26:43. > :26:47.regional boat. The troopers are here to the end. It has been a good

:26:48. > :26:56.evening in terms of the fact we had a brilliant win from Leanne Wood,

:26:57. > :26:58.and significant improvements in Ceredigion. Blaenau Gwent was so

:26:59. > :27:03.close. Upset not to when that. Caerphilly as well we ran Labour

:27:04. > :27:10.closed. Good results coming back through.

:27:11. > :27:13.Have you been doing the maths, how will it affect you in South Wales

:27:14. > :27:18.West? We are waiting to see whether we

:27:19. > :27:26.have been successful in winning anymore on the regional list. We

:27:27. > :27:30.hopefully can make that game. Myself, if elected, will be part of

:27:31. > :27:37.a strong team of Plaid Cymru Assembly Members.

:27:38. > :27:41.Would you be one of those Plaid Cymru members keen to do some sort

:27:42. > :27:45.of deal with Labour? I don't think I have any personal

:27:46. > :27:50.appetite to go in with Labour again especially after the way people like

:27:51. > :27:56.Leighton Andrews talked about us in terms of being a cheap date, putting

:27:57. > :28:03.blame on Plaid Cymru firm only being in power with them for four years.

:28:04. > :28:08.It is time to discuss, should I be elected, with the party membership,

:28:09. > :28:14.to see how many seats we win. You wouldn't like any formal deal?

:28:15. > :28:17.You would be saying, no, don't do it?

:28:18. > :28:21.I would be this time. The red Line to me last time was getting ever

:28:22. > :28:27.friend and more powers for Wales, I see no reason why we should prop up

:28:28. > :28:38.labour this time. Thank you very much waiting there.

:28:39. > :28:45.Let us go to Scotland. A busy night. You have been keeping an eye on it

:28:46. > :28:49.in Glasgow. Pretty empty there now? Yes, the clear up well and truly

:28:50. > :28:57.under way. Following a busy night. And a successive -- successful night

:28:58. > :29:03.for the SNP, a historic night according to Nicola Sturgeon, making

:29:04. > :29:08.the point hers is the first party to win three consecutive terms of

:29:09. > :29:16.office in Holyrood. Her party hasn't quite got to that

:29:17. > :29:19.threshold they need just yet to get a majority, they need 65 seats.

:29:20. > :29:26.They are on course. I have seen some interesting comments on Twitter now

:29:27. > :29:32.by Professor John Curtis, a real authority on Scottish politics. He

:29:33. > :29:38.has suggested there may be some element of risk attached to this.

:29:39. > :29:42.Things may not be as straightforward as everyone has assumed all night

:29:43. > :29:48.for the SNP. We wait to see what will happen exactly. They are close

:29:49. > :29:54.to 30 seats still to come. We will see whether that takes the SNP past

:29:55. > :30:01.the mark, as we expect. Elsewhere, a very successful night

:30:02. > :30:12.for the Conservatives in Scotland. Ruth Davidson taking a seat in

:30:13. > :30:23.Edinburgh, pinching that from the SNP. They have seen

:30:24. > :30:24.It has been another very disappointing night for Labour here

:30:25. > :30:33.in Scotland, following that disastrous showing a year ago in the

:30:34. > :30:40.general election, of course. They have taken further steps back today,

:30:41. > :30:47.overnight, as well. The one consolation for Labour is that this

:30:48. > :30:53.system that we use in Wales and in Scotland, the electoral system,

:30:54. > :30:54.means a party can lose constituency seats, but also be compensated to

:30:55. > :30:59.some extent when that happens by picking up seats on the regional

:31:00. > :31:01.list. That is exactly what happened in Glasgow, because here the SNP

:31:02. > :31:08.have won all eight Holyrood seats for Glasgow, taking some of Labour.

:31:09. > :31:14.What that has meant is that Labour have then picked up four regional

:31:15. > :31:16.seats here in Glasgow. In contrast to Wales, where we know you get a

:31:17. > :31:22.four regional members for every region, here they have seven. Labour

:31:23. > :31:27.have picked up four of those seats for Glasgow. Two have gone to the

:31:28. > :31:32.Conservatives and one has gone to the Green party. Labour have been

:31:33. > :31:38.compensated to some extent, but Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour's

:31:39. > :31:43.leader, has said quite frankly that she is disappointed that this is a

:31:44. > :31:44.very disappointing night. The party must learn lessons and move forward.

:31:45. > :31:51.Without doubt, another historic night for the SNP. Their members

:31:52. > :31:58.were here, rejoicing every time a result was announced and they have

:31:59. > :32:04.gone away in high spirits, as you would expect, as they await

:32:05. > :32:06.confirmation that they have reached that figure, that threshold that

:32:07. > :32:12.gives them another majority in Holyrood. Thank you. Time for you to

:32:13. > :32:19.pack up and leave there, too. Thank you. Let's look at the scores on the

:32:20. > :32:26.doors in Scotland. The SNP, the total so far, 59 seats, that is down

:32:27. > :32:33.two. Conservatives 22, they gained 11. Labour, a bad night for them,

:32:34. > :32:39.17, down 12. Greens, five, they have taken three so far. The Lib Dems on

:32:40. > :32:47.four, they have taken one. Ukip, no impact yet. If we look at the

:32:48. > :32:52.change, the share and change, since the last election. In the

:32:53. > :32:55.constituency vote, this is. Not the regional one. At one, the SNP.

:32:56. > :33:03.Labour down nine, conservatives update, Lib Dems up a smidge and the

:33:04. > :33:11.greens up one and Ukip not really moving. We have two very good and

:33:12. > :33:13.keen Scottish watchers. You used to advise the SNP. There was talk of

:33:14. > :33:19.them taking every seat. They won't do that now, but they will be very

:33:20. > :33:22.pleased. They were very optimistically predicting last night

:33:23. > :33:25.at 9pm that they might win the majority on constituency seats

:33:26. > :33:30.alone. That was just showing off, arguably, and the Scottish don't

:33:31. > :33:35.really like parties showing off. The SNP are on course for a third term

:33:36. > :33:41.in office, a second majority. Five years ago, that was remarkable first

:33:42. > :33:45.time it happened. For it to happen again with such certainty is once

:33:46. > :33:53.again quite remarkable. What is the SNP's secret? Even in office, they

:33:54. > :33:54.don't seem to suffer. It takes ten years to become an overnight

:33:55. > :33:58.success, that is the story of the SNP. It has been a long and slow

:33:59. > :34:02.bill. With every successful election, they build another

:34:03. > :34:09.successful result. A lot has to do with the behind-the-scenes stuff,

:34:10. > :34:10.the information gathering, the identifying the boat, using their

:34:11. > :34:16.thousands of members to get that vote out. The SNP have a tendency to

:34:17. > :34:21.overreach themselves in terms of the hype. I am old enough to remember

:34:22. > :34:28.three by 90 three. There is a danger that poor expectation management is

:34:29. > :34:32.taking Bocas offered is a really good result for them. This is

:34:33. > :34:40.genuinely excellent. I am interested in what is happening further down

:34:41. > :34:41.the list. This is another terrible result for Scottish Labour. Really

:34:42. > :34:45.awful. They clearly still haven't hit the bottom. The conservative

:34:46. > :34:53.result is really interesting, because there is a stark contrast to

:34:54. > :34:53.Wales. The story of devolution so far has been the Welsh Conservatives

:34:54. > :35:01.doing better in every election, the Scottish Conservatives on life

:35:02. > :35:04.support. That has shifted, greens have outperformed the Lib Dems and

:35:05. > :35:08.Ukip will not get a seat in Scotland, which is going to be in

:35:09. > :35:12.stark contrast to what we will see in Wales shortly. Thank you for now.

:35:13. > :35:18.We will be back with you shortly. Let's go to the spin room.

:35:19. > :35:21.Welcome back to the spin room. Watching you on TV tonight and

:35:22. > :35:24.people will be looking at their phones. A lot of interaction on

:35:25. > :35:35.social media discussing those results as they come in. We need to

:35:36. > :35:41.talk about that. Jo and Rowan. Joe, tell me what you have seen tonight.

:35:42. > :35:47.You have been looking at all of that engagement on Twitter. We have been

:35:48. > :35:56.collecting the engagement on Twitter. Good for us is that there

:35:57. > :35:57.have been loads of tweets. I can show you some. This screen shows you

:35:58. > :36:01.the last seven days of twitter. We have had thousands of tweets around

:36:02. > :36:10.the Welsh elections. If we drill into that data is a bit deeper, we

:36:11. > :36:11.can see that engagement over the last day has actually been really

:36:12. > :36:16.great. Steady and constant throughout the day, 10pm, when the

:36:17. > :36:19.polls closed, big spike in data. Dipped a bit and as the results were

:36:20. > :36:24.coming in, where as you might think it would decrease as people go to

:36:25. > :36:32.bed, we have gone up and up through the night to 3am, Faure. 3500

:36:33. > :36:36.between 5am and six M. That is people actively talking as results

:36:37. > :36:44.come in. Big results like Leanne Wood in the Rhondda. We also analyse

:36:45. > :36:48.the sentiment and language used. Sorry, we analyse the language used

:36:49. > :36:53.for sentiment and emotion. If we look here, we can see that that

:36:54. > :36:58.5:05am moment when that was announced, we see a volume spite. In

:36:59. > :37:02.terms of positivity, it shot through the roof. Where it was a lowest

:37:03. > :37:05.point of the day as the first results came in, people disappointed

:37:06. > :37:11.that engagement figures were low, people were disappointed with the

:37:12. > :37:16.results, people not doing as well as they thought. Positivity after that,

:37:17. > :37:23.it has gone up all the way through. You have been looking at what has

:37:24. > :37:24.been said, but Rowan, from your point of view, do politicians take

:37:25. > :37:28.to Twitter? When you see people talking about politics on social

:37:29. > :37:33.media, does it get you worked up? It is interesting to see the impact of

:37:34. > :37:41.the data now that the voting has closed. The impact needs to be

:37:42. > :37:45.happening in the run-up to the election. I don't think

:37:46. > :37:48.politicians... They might have these social media profiles, but they are

:37:49. > :38:01.not using them properly, especially to connect with young people. You

:38:02. > :38:01.can see, obviously, the turnout has been horrific. Some of the stats we

:38:02. > :38:05.have seen overnight has been so bad. It will be really interesting to see

:38:06. > :38:10.the age gap. Usually, it is the older generation who are putting the

:38:11. > :38:14.most votes in. Is that something you can tell in terms of who are the

:38:15. > :38:20.ones talking about...? Well generally speaking, when we look

:38:21. > :38:24.into it, nearly 60 to 65% of tweets are retweets, not original written

:38:25. > :38:29.content. This is generally speaking, not a bad thing, certain parties

:38:30. > :38:33.have very good networks. They get a tweet, they retweet, they share it,

:38:34. > :38:38.and everyone in that group retweets and shares. Where it looks like some

:38:39. > :38:40.parties have a massive presence on social media, it is actually to do

:38:41. > :38:45.with them being quite savvy and clever on social media. Having said

:38:46. > :38:53.that, not all of the politicians are that savvy media. They are not

:38:54. > :38:56.really using it to give us anything real. We can find out exactly what

:38:57. > :39:03.they are tweeting about by watching the news or reading the manifesto.

:39:04. > :39:06.They not actually -- we're not seeing the personality behind it.

:39:07. > :39:10.That is something young people will find easier to identify with. Thank

:39:11. > :39:14.you both very much. Some lessons to learn, plenty of torque about the

:39:15. > :39:19.politics online. Thank you. Let's look at the picture

:39:20. > :39:29.in England now, where they have been counting more than 2500 seats in

:39:30. > :39:33.local councils. 80 councils declared so far out of 124. Our Parliamentary

:39:34. > :39:37.correspondent is in Westminster and has been keeping a close eye all

:39:38. > :39:46.night. Pretty bad night for Labour, is that the picture? And mixed bag,

:39:47. > :39:49.to be fair. Not as bad as Jeremy Corbyn might have feared. Not as

:39:50. > :40:00.bad, either, as his critics might have hoped. Labour have lost seats,

:40:01. > :40:02.but is not the 150 or so that they were predicted to lose, and not the

:40:03. > :40:10.hundreds that some in the party feared they might lose. Not enough

:40:11. > :40:15.to convince Labour that Jeremy Corbyn is on course for Downing

:40:16. > :40:19.Street, but not bad enough, either, for his critics to use it as an

:40:20. > :40:24.excuse to strike against his leadership. He said this week he

:40:25. > :40:30.wouldn't lose any seats, perhaps not the best thing to say ahead of an

:40:31. > :40:34.election. Quite the promise, that. He has been an MP for more than 30

:40:35. > :40:37.years, but only on the front bench for eight months. Managing

:40:38. > :40:42.expectations, that great game of politics, not something he has ever

:40:43. > :40:49.had to play before and in fact, having announced on Tuesday that

:40:50. > :40:52.Labour were not in the business of losing seats, he didn't expect to

:40:53. > :40:57.lose seats, his spin doctor the next day had to try to clarify and

:40:58. > :41:03.explain what he meant by that. What his critics will say, it is the

:41:04. > :41:07.first time that an opposition leader has lost ground in the first

:41:08. > :41:14.elections in which they have bought. What his supporters will say is,

:41:15. > :41:20.these elections will last for years. Four years ago, when Labour have

:41:21. > :41:28.done well to hold on to seats, in places like Crawley and Southampton.

:41:29. > :41:32.Briefly, on Ukip, we see the 28 councillors they have had so far, an

:41:33. > :41:42.increase of 20. How will it pan out for Ukip? Ukip are happy with that.

:41:43. > :41:43.Solid gains for Ukip in terms of council seats, but of course this is

:41:44. > :41:48.just the warm up act for Ukip. They are channelling all their energies

:41:49. > :41:56.at the referendum next month, on June the 23rd. Nigel Farage will

:41:57. > :42:00.hope to use the Ukip performance in these elections across the UK as a

:42:01. > :42:06.springboard, really, for the big issue for him which is Brexit. Thank

:42:07. > :42:12.you, David. James Williams is at the count in Cardiff. Some of the

:42:13. > :42:20.results very worrying for the Tory party from Cardiff. Yes, absolutely.

:42:21. > :42:24.They had their eye on a number of marginals. They were second to

:42:25. > :42:29.Labour in those marginals, hoping they could squeeze Labour in some of

:42:30. > :42:33.those seats. Cardiff North was counted here, they missed out on

:42:34. > :42:38.that. They missed out on the Vale of Glamorgan are down the road. They

:42:39. > :42:44.missed out in Wrexham, Delyn, Clwyd South, a number of seats in the

:42:45. > :42:48.north-east. This strategy they had of moving their representation in

:42:49. > :42:55.Cardiff Bay from one based mainly on regional top-up seats to one based

:42:56. > :42:59.on constituencies hasn't worked out. I asked a senior Tory source

:43:00. > :43:03.earlier, what has gone wrong for the Conservative Party? He said, I don't

:43:04. > :43:08.know, but we have to get to the bottom of it. The inquest will begin

:43:09. > :43:12.shortly and my feeling is that Andrew RT Davies is in trouble. As I

:43:13. > :43:15.said at the start of the night, he had a clear challenge. The

:43:16. > :43:18.Conservatives have increased the number of seats they have had in the

:43:19. > :43:25.semi-macro in every election to date. It looks like they will do

:43:26. > :43:26.that will stop in fact, it looks like they will lose seats from the

:43:27. > :43:33.current 14. At the start of the night, I said the knives could be

:43:34. > :43:38.out for Andrew to -- Andrew RT Davies. As soon as we get the count

:43:39. > :43:43.for North Wales, we will cross over. When you look at that poor

:43:44. > :43:48.performance, the momentum was completely lost from the last

:43:49. > :43:53.general election. Absolutely. The question during this campaign was,

:43:54. > :43:56.would the internal divisions of the EU referendum hamper them, or would

:43:57. > :44:01.they be able to take advantage of that momentum generated during last

:44:02. > :44:08.year's general election, when the unexpectedly won a number of seats

:44:09. > :44:11.from Labour? The veil of Clyde and Gower, for instance, when they were

:44:12. > :44:20.able to represent that performance tonight. As a party, they have been

:44:21. > :44:20.very frustrated with this campaign. Events have overtaken what they

:44:21. > :44:26.hoped would be a campaign completely dominated on Welsh Labour's record

:44:27. > :44:44.as a government since the start of devolution. Thank you, James. I am

:44:45. > :44:54.afraid we have do go. I, being the regional returning officer of the

:44:55. > :44:55.election of members to serve in the National Assembly for Wales for the

:44:56. > :44:56.North Wales electoral region held on the 5th of May 2016, do hereby give

:44:57. > :45:00.notice that a number of votes recorded for each party or

:45:01. > :45:18.individual candidate in the region is as follows.

:45:19. > :45:57.The Welsh Assembly 9,409. The assertion of Welsh local

:45:58. > :46:12.independence, 1,865. Welsh Conservatives, 45,468. Plaid Cymru

:46:13. > :46:16.for North Wales, 47,701. The official monster raving loony party,

:46:17. > :46:47.1,355 votes. UK Independence Party, 25518.

:46:48. > :47:03.Wales Green Party, 4789. Welsh Communist Party, 586.

:47:04. > :47:21.Welsh Labour, 57528. Welsh Liberal Democrats, 9345.

:47:22. > :47:27.And, finally, young Mark John, independent, 926.

:47:28. > :47:41.The number of ballot papers rejected totals 1434.

:47:42. > :47:44.And I do hereby declare that the under mentioned are duly elected as

:47:45. > :47:56.the four members for the electoral region.

:47:57. > :48:14.Gail, Nathan Lee, Ukip. Griffith, Plaid Cymru, the party for Wales.

:48:15. > :48:29.Isherwood, Mark Allen, Welsh Conservatives. And Michelle Margaret

:48:30. > :48:36.Brown, UK Independence Party, Ukip. STUDIO: Two seats going to Ukip,

:48:37. > :48:37.which is quite ever sell them. And 12 Plaid Cymru, one to the

:48:38. > :48:54.Conservatives. So, two for Ukip, Richard?

:48:55. > :48:59.I am not surprised, given the results in North Wales, that is what

:49:00. > :49:05.we were expecting. I think we will see a series of Ukip members being

:49:06. > :49:11.elected to the national Assembly, quite a change for Ukip and the

:49:12. > :49:28.national Assembly. We can see that speech from Janet

:49:29. > :49:34.Howarth, for Labour, here is Kia Griffiths.

:49:35. > :49:47.Let us have a look and see if the graphics are ready.

:49:48. > :50:04.These are the numbers on a turn out of 43%.

:50:05. > :50:11.And this is the share. Abolish The Welsh Assembly on 5%,

:50:12. > :50:16.the Lib Dems on 5%. The Abolish The Welsh Assembly is

:50:17. > :50:19.worth mentioning because it may come to play in some of the other

:50:20. > :50:23.regionals, if they take votes away from Ukip. And if that fourth seat

:50:24. > :50:35.is in question. Labour are down four compared to the

:50:36. > :50:48.last election, and these, after a long night, here are the changes.

:50:49. > :50:54.This is all the excitement! And there will be a new MEP for

:50:55. > :51:00.Wales. Edwina, you are standing down, and

:51:01. > :51:02.odd election for you, not standing for the Gower, you were there since

:51:03. > :51:08.1999. It was a decision I took myself, I

:51:09. > :51:17.am delighted Gower has remained Labour. This is the exciting bit,

:51:18. > :51:19.and a worrying time in terms of how the Assembly will function with Ukip

:51:20. > :51:25.representation, a party that only stands to be against things, it will

:51:26. > :51:33.be difficult for the other political parties.

:51:34. > :51:36.There is a member shaking his head there.

:51:37. > :51:44.Let us look at the performance of Labour, to lose a colleague and

:51:45. > :51:49.close friends, Leighton Andrews. Everyone is expressing surprise but

:51:50. > :51:54.Leighton was aware of the campaign being run. Leanne Wood has been on

:51:55. > :52:01.the TV screens since the general election but this is very high

:52:02. > :52:09.profile. And a successful campaign. Rhondda has not always been Labour.

:52:10. > :52:13.That pressure has come through again. It has been liable to change.

:52:14. > :52:18.We are confident for the next elections.

:52:19. > :52:30.In terms of machinations going forward, would you encourage some

:52:31. > :52:31.sort of deal, it is unlikely you will reach the 30. 28, 27, is that

:52:32. > :52:34.when you would look for a partner? I wouldn't use the word,

:52:35. > :52:43.machinations, there will be proper negotiations. Can I say the First

:52:44. > :52:45.Minister will probably be in a position to go as a minority

:52:46. > :52:49.government, the Scots did so successfully.

:52:50. > :52:57.Is that your advice? I don't give advice, I am a private citizen. It

:52:58. > :53:11.is very important the First Minister looks at the situation, discusses it

:53:12. > :53:14.with colleagues. With 28, it is feasible to go it alone and

:53:15. > :53:18.negotiate this through. Devolution is a process. People still want this

:53:19. > :53:27.to succeed. There will be a willingness in other parties with

:53:28. > :53:29.getting policies through. Let it calm down now. We need to go to

:53:30. > :53:36.rational thoughts. One of your big projects, the black

:53:37. > :53:41.root for the Mfour relief route that will be more difficult for Labour to

:53:42. > :53:46.deliver. It will probably end up in a public

:53:47. > :53:52.inquiring. We will await the outcome. Then, discussions commence.

:53:53. > :53:57.This is a project that industry desperately needs for West Wales to

:53:58. > :54:04.encourage economic development. A lot is said about it in public, let

:54:05. > :54:10.reality settle in and let it go through process.

:54:11. > :54:12.You will miss being a minister, what is next?

:54:13. > :54:17.I won't miss it, once you have made the decision, that is it. Too many

:54:18. > :54:23.state in politics for too long, too many men in grey suits, it is good

:54:24. > :54:26.having a younger generation coming through.

:54:27. > :54:38.Wise words. Maybe you could broach that?

:54:39. > :54:40.Let us hear from Ukip, Sam Gould, your first seat of the night on the

:54:41. > :54:48.North Wales list. How does it feel? Amazing. Nathan

:54:49. > :54:55.Gill, our first elected AM, getting the maximum number of obtainable

:54:56. > :54:59.seats in North Wales, two seats is a great start to these regional

:55:00. > :55:03.results. We are now seeing our breakthrough into the Welsh

:55:04. > :55:10.Assembly, something no outside party has been able to achieve. History in

:55:11. > :55:14.the making for Welsh politics and Ukip.

:55:15. > :55:19.You are an unknown factor. Help me out. What will Ukip be like in the

:55:20. > :55:24.Assembly, will you coalesce around a leader given you didn't seem able to

:55:25. > :55:29.during the election campaign? We will work constructively for the

:55:30. > :55:34.benefit of people in Wales, putting forward our policies where we can.

:55:35. > :55:40.We had a constructive manifesto working to improve things in Wales,

:55:41. > :55:49.helping the NHS, education, the economy, policies we want to be

:55:50. > :55:52.constructed for. We want to be constructive but hold the Welsh

:55:53. > :55:57.Assembly to account, break up that cosy consensus where people think

:55:58. > :56:00.they can get away with things. We want to oppose things like

:56:01. > :56:07.increasing the number of Assembly members, opposing tax raising powers

:56:08. > :56:11.which was promised to the people of Wales, fundamental things we stand

:56:12. > :56:15.for. The consensus within your own party,

:56:16. > :56:20.never mind the wider Assembly, will Nathan Gill's leadership be

:56:21. > :56:27.respected? The fact is, when we look at the

:56:28. > :56:29.membership and a selection of candidates, he topped that list, his

:56:30. > :56:34.popularity among the membership is very high.

:56:35. > :56:42.Neal Hamilton on this programme had to be prompted I don't know how many

:56:43. > :56:48.times before he would say Nathan Deal was a good leader. It was

:56:49. > :56:49.lukewarm then. Odds on such a night for Ukip.

:56:50. > :56:55.I support Nathan Gill as bidder and the vast majority do support him.

:56:56. > :57:03.We're very pleased what he has been to achieve.

:57:04. > :57:10.Have you anything in common once the Europe issue is out the way?

:57:11. > :57:11.As I said, there are two things, scrapping the Severn Bridge

:57:12. > :57:17.devolving economic development down to local councils, opposing tax

:57:18. > :57:24.raising powers without a referendum which was promised.

:57:25. > :57:28.A word on the Lib Dems losing, Aled Roberts going?

:57:29. > :57:33.It was inevitable when the overall vote in Wales dropped by the

:57:34. > :57:41.percentage it did. If it were perhaps in 12 months, it might be a

:57:42. > :57:47.different thing. It was very much a Lottery for us, fourth place in

:57:48. > :57:53.these regions, it was only a touchdown which made it happen. If

:57:54. > :57:59.it hadn't been for a Ukip intervention of the sort we have

:58:00. > :58:04.seen now, then I'm certain we would have retained members.

:58:05. > :58:04.If you don't get any other seats, what role do you see for Kirsty

:58:05. > :58:11.Williams? It is not for me to say to her what

:58:12. > :58:14.role she wants to play. We have been in this position before of having

:58:15. > :58:21.only one MP, back with Alex Carlile, when the leader of the party was the

:58:22. > :58:27.only MP. A party is more than its elected people, it is also the

:58:28. > :58:33.membership. I think what will happen for us is the membership had to step

:58:34. > :58:39.up, undertake all the sorts of things we need to do, particularly

:58:40. > :58:44.with a major focus on next year's local elections which we are good

:58:45. > :58:49.at. How Kirsty wants, it is her thinking time, we have to give her

:58:50. > :58:56.that space. In terms of who she can work with,

:58:57. > :59:02.we haven't seen this sort of situation within the Assembly. I

:59:03. > :59:05.understand you saying there is a president. This Assembly is unknown.

:59:06. > :59:10.There are lots of new people, a new party, the Lib Dems are down to one

:59:11. > :59:16.person arguably. It is a new situation. There is some

:59:17. > :59:22.president for the Labour Party if it wins 28, 29, wanting to go on their

:59:23. > :59:29.own. They stumbled before, came unstuck, especially when one of

:59:30. > :59:31.their members became an independent. There are great dangers. The most

:59:32. > :59:37.important thing for politicians as a whole is you must have a stable

:59:38. > :59:43.Government which can deliver a programme, which is effective for

:59:44. > :59:46.the people of Wales. I know the Assembly has been around since 1999

:59:47. > :59:52.but it is still, as it acquires more powers, it has to use them properly,

:59:53. > :59:56.and requires all members to support them.

:59:57. > :00:04.We are hoping to get the other list results before we are off air at

:00:05. > :00:07.just after 9am I think it is, is that right?

:00:08. > :00:11.That is it, 9:15am. Friday the 6th of May, welcome to

:00:12. > :00:21.our ongoing coverage of the results of the

:00:22. > :00:38.Nathan Gill and Michelle Brown will represent the party in North Wales.

:00:39. > :00:42.In a surprise result, Leanne Wood has one in the Rhondda over Labour,

:00:43. > :00:46.over Leighton Andrews. So far, we have all the constituency

:00:47. > :01:17.results nearly. Most of the regional ones are expected.

:01:18. > :01:23.I do hereby declare that Leanne Wood is duly elected for the Rhondda

:01:24. > :01:37.constituency. Here in the Rhondda, a new dawn has

:01:38. > :01:49.already broken. People have voted for change. A big victory for Leanne

:01:50. > :01:54.Wood, overturning a Labour. Although Plaid has won its heartland seat in

:01:55. > :02:00.the West, it couldn't win the marginal seat of Llanelli. Labour

:02:01. > :02:01.increased their majority there. Nevertheless, Rhondda is a big

:02:02. > :02:04.disappointment for Labour. Couldn't beat Leanne Wood. This is what

:02:05. > :02:09.Leighton Andrews, the defeated Labour AM has to say. I think there

:02:10. > :02:17.are lessons for the Labour Party which we need to consider, lessons

:02:18. > :02:18.locally, lessons at a Welsh level and lessons for the party at a UK

:02:19. > :02:23.level. What I am pleased about is what I am hearing, the victories for

:02:24. > :02:29.my Labour colleagues across Wales, I am pleased to have been part of

:02:30. > :02:30.Carwyn Jones' campaign team for this election. We have seen off the

:02:31. > :02:34.Conservative challenge in many parts of Wales and we are delivering

:02:35. > :02:39.strong leadership and strong results with Labour candidates across Wales.

:02:40. > :02:42.Questions by Labour. One of the question is, well they have to form

:02:43. > :02:48.a majority with someone? Leanne Wood says she's not tribal. We have heard

:02:49. > :02:52.from other Plaid AM Tuesday they don't want to. They might be able to

:02:53. > :02:59.go it alone, given that they have held off the threat of the Tories in

:03:00. > :03:01.north-east Wales, in places like the veil of Clwyd. With the Tories have

:03:02. > :03:05.one, they failed to win any new seas, but kept seats they had,

:03:06. > :03:11.increased their majority in some places. For example, Darren Millar

:03:12. > :03:19.was the Clwyd West AM, and still is. He we heard from him earlier. -- we

:03:20. > :03:23.heard from him earlier. You are going to take us somewhere else.

:03:24. > :03:50.I hear nothing any more. Let's go to Newport. 492. Welsh Labour,. Welsh

:03:51. > :03:55.Liberal Democrats, 6,784. There was coalition, 618. When we apply the

:03:56. > :04:04.system, the following result is the result that I will declare. I hereby

:04:05. > :04:05.certify that the persons elected and returned to the National Assembly

:04:06. > :04:09.for Wales to serve as members for the South Wales East electoral

:04:10. > :04:18.region at the election held on the 5th of May 2016 are as follows. Mark

:04:19. > :04:31.reckless, United Kingdom Independence party, Stefan Lewis,

:04:32. > :04:34.Plaid Cymru, the party of rails, Mohammed Askar, Conservative and

:04:35. > :05:08.Unionist party. We will now make STUDIO: Mark reckless into the

:05:09. > :05:15.Assembly, as is David Rowlands. Once again, in this regionals seat, two

:05:16. > :05:18.going to Ukip. Oscar Ash got the Conservatives and Stefan Lewis

:05:19. > :05:27.securing their place on the South Wales East seats. It used to be two

:05:28. > :05:31.Conservatives and two Plaid. Ukip coming out in strength, as

:05:32. > :05:34.predicted, this is what we are expecting giving the results and

:05:35. > :05:42.swings we have seen. Absolutely. You see the impact their with the

:05:43. > :05:48.Conservatives and Plaid. This is... We can maybe come back to Plaid's

:05:49. > :05:55.performance later on. They are going to lose some ground on the lists due

:05:56. > :06:01.to the performance of Ukip. Let's have a look at the party vote there.

:06:02. > :06:04.Southeast Wells was the region Ukip were saying they were the most

:06:05. > :06:08.confident of getting a second regional seat. It is an interesting

:06:09. > :06:13.region, because you can imagine them taking votes of the Tory right in

:06:14. > :06:17.Monmouthshire, but also in disaffected Labour votes in the

:06:18. > :06:24.valleys. They got a second seat in North Wales, as well. Two regions

:06:25. > :06:29.down, they have four AMs. A good night. Mark reckless, a potential

:06:30. > :06:39.leader of the party in Wales, I would strongly suspect. The current

:06:40. > :06:46.leader has described his job as heading cats. Who knows if he wants

:06:47. > :06:49.to carry on? It won't be easy for him, keeping a check on all those...

:06:50. > :06:54.It is going to be very difficult. Ukip is a pretty factional

:06:55. > :07:01.organisation. They enjoy boisterous exchanges, but there are also lots

:07:02. > :07:02.of tensions around the personality of Nigel Farage. Obvious tensions

:07:03. > :07:08.between Douglas Carswell and Nigel Farage. One of the reasons I suspect

:07:09. > :07:15.Reckless might end up leading the party in Wales is he seems to get on

:07:16. > :07:21.with most people in the party. Thank you both. Let's go to Cardiff Bay

:07:22. > :07:27.are a win is on his magic carpet. What we are going to do is show that

:07:28. > :07:33.we have 39 of the constituencies now declared, all bar Cardiff West, the

:07:34. > :07:35.grey patch at the bottom. In terms of the 40 constituencies, very much

:07:36. > :07:42.as you work, apart from one change, which is the yellow Plaid Cymru in

:07:43. > :07:46.that sea of red. Leanne Wood, as you have discussed. We can also show you

:07:47. > :07:52.the new regional seats. Across North Wales, we have the two Ukip

:07:53. > :07:59.alongside the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. If we go down to the

:08:00. > :08:02.Southeast region that we are hearing from now, again, two new Ukip

:08:03. > :08:05.members. One for Plaid Cymru, one for the Conservatives. This is the

:08:06. > :08:12.changes we have seen now in terms of Wales. We have the share of the

:08:13. > :08:16.votes, as well, for the vote so far. After all the constituents, 35% for

:08:17. > :08:23.Labour, 21% of the Conservatives, 20% for Plaid Cymru, and Ukip

:08:24. > :08:25.gaining those members, 13% of the votes, this is on the constituencies

:08:26. > :08:30.so far. Let's show you now, open up the floor, and show you what we can

:08:31. > :08:35.do in terms of the share of the vote. First of all, we are going to

:08:36. > :08:38.look at how this works historically. We can go right back to 1999, 30 5%

:08:39. > :08:46.for Labour. We talk about the ebb and flow of support for Labour since

:08:47. > :08:50.then. Look at the result. 35% again, the carbon copy in 1999. The first

:08:51. > :08:55.time, big change of scene. I was saying earlier but the Conservatives

:08:56. > :08:59.have gone from strength to strength in each of the Assembly elections we

:09:00. > :09:06.have had since 1999. For the first time tween 2011 and 2016, their

:09:07. > :09:09.support drops. A slight increase for Plaid Cymru and disappointing night

:09:10. > :09:14.for the Liberal Democrats, bowing down to 8% from 11%. Now let's open

:09:15. > :09:17.up our flora and show you what that means in terms of seats here in the

:09:18. > :09:24.Assembly chamber. As we were expecting, still another fair few

:09:25. > :09:29.seats to go, but at the moment, we have Labour on 26, the Conservatives

:09:30. > :09:32.in second place at the moment on the constituencies with eight. Tied in a

:09:33. > :09:39.sense with Plaid Cymru, so we will have to wait and see how the other

:09:40. > :09:40.regional seats go. That will be an interesting battle in the race for

:09:41. > :09:44.second place. Then we have the new members, those four Ukip members and

:09:45. > :09:48.Kirsty Williams as the lone Lib Dem. That is how it looks so far. We have

:09:49. > :09:52.all those members are still to be declared on the regions, so for the

:09:53. > :09:59.moment, we will cover these up, come back to you with more information

:10:00. > :10:03.later. Back to you. Let's go to Neath for the count for the South

:10:04. > :10:07.Wales West regional. Thank you. This is the declaration of the result for

:10:08. > :10:17.the South Wales West electoral region.

:10:18. > :10:40.I, Stephen Phillips, returning officer, regional returning officer

:10:41. > :10:40.for the South Wales West region, declared that the total of votes

:10:41. > :10:46.given to each party and individual candidates at the regional election

:10:47. > :11:01.in South Wales West was as follows. Abolish the Welsh Assembly, 7137.

:11:02. > :11:11.Welsh Conservatives, 25,414. Official Monster Raving Loony Party,

:11:12. > :11:40.Wales Green Party, 4,420. Welsh Communist Party,. Welsh Labour,

:11:41. > :11:53.66,903. Welsh Liberal Democrats, 10946. Wells trade unionists and

:11:54. > :12:02.Socialist coalition, 686. Ukip Wales, 23096. Each region is

:12:03. > :12:05.allocated four regional seats. By law, I must apply a mathematical

:12:06. > :12:10.formula to determine who obtains those seats. For the first seat, the

:12:11. > :12:14.number of votes cast in a regional election for each party and

:12:15. > :12:19.individual candidate is divided by the number of constituency seats

:12:20. > :12:22.they have gained, plus one. The first regional seat is allocated to

:12:23. > :12:25.the party and individual candidate who has the largest figure after I

:12:26. > :12:33.have performed this calculation. For the second, third and fourth seeds,

:12:34. > :12:33.this calculation is repeated, except that the votes are divided by the

:12:34. > :12:39.total number of constituency and regional seats already won, plus

:12:40. > :12:42.one. The seized the party are entitled to our filled by the

:12:43. > :12:47.candidates in the order they appear on the party list. -- the seats. In

:12:48. > :12:58.having performed the necessary cartilages, the first regional seat,

:12:59. > :13:03.Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales. The second seat, the Welsh

:13:04. > :13:18.Conservatives. The third regional seat is allocated to Ukip Wales. The

:13:19. > :13:27.fourth regional seat is allocated to Plaid Cymru, the party of Wales.

:13:28. > :13:39.Therefore, I give public notice that Bethan Jenkins, Susie Davis,

:13:40. > :13:46.Caroline Jones and diagnosed I duly elected for the South Wales rest

:13:47. > :13:49.region. -- West region. The total number of votes cast across the

:13:50. > :13:59.South Wales West region at the National Assembly for Wales election

:14:00. > :14:07.on the 5th of May was 169,189. The total number of rejected ballot

:14:08. > :14:13.papers was 1026. STUDIO: The results were South Wales

:14:14. > :14:19.West. Two going to Plaid Cymru, want to the Conservatives and want to

:14:20. > :14:28.Ukip. -- one to the Conservatives and one to Ukip. The graphic is

:14:29. > :14:35.there, let's look at Bethan Jenkins. That means Peter Black has gone and

:14:36. > :14:40.Hussein has also gone. Labour are topping the poll, the turnout was

:14:41. > :14:47.43%. The share of the vote, Labour on 40, Plaid Cymru on 17, the

:14:48. > :14:54.Conservatives on 15, Ukip on 14, and if we look at the change, there we

:14:55. > :15:02.go. Labour down 7%, Plaid Cymru up three, the Conservatives down three,

:15:03. > :15:06.Ukip up nine. Again, as expected, Plaid Cymru will be happy to pick up

:15:07. > :15:09.the second list and have Dai Lloyd back in the Assembly. He was

:15:10. > :15:20.previously an Assembly member. The pattern is clear, this has been

:15:21. > :15:25.an extraordinary collection. What strikes you is the efficiency of

:15:26. > :15:33.Labour's conversion of votes into seats. We usually don't associate

:15:34. > :15:37.the adjective, efficient, to politics. They have been incredibly

:15:38. > :15:42.efficient, a very disappointing evening for the Conservatives. There

:15:43. > :15:45.is no way of addressing this up as anything other than really

:15:46. > :15:51.disappointing, especially given the hopes three months ago. We were

:15:52. > :15:58.focusing on the Rhondda, an extraordinary result. If you remove

:15:59. > :16:03.that, it is pretty ordinary results for Plaid Cymru given the favourable

:16:04. > :16:08.electoral circumstances when Labour and the Conservatives had problems,

:16:09. > :16:13.with the Lib Dems in danger of disappearing, Plaid Cymru should

:16:14. > :16:17.probably have done better. I expect the Rhondda result is shielding the

:16:18. > :16:23.performance elsewhere. We have seen that with the Lib Dems,

:16:24. > :16:30.wipe out elsewhere, a stonking performance by the leader.

:16:31. > :16:35.To be fair to Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems situation is desperate. They

:16:36. > :16:44.are now not really a national party. A really bad night. I am not saying

:16:45. > :16:47.Plaid Cymru are in that shape. Given very favourable electoral

:16:48. > :16:54.circumstances, they should have done better in terms of winning places

:16:55. > :17:01.like Llanelli. For Ukip, finally, this is the breakthrough. In a

:17:02. > :17:04.sense, it gets difficult from now on for them, they had to be able to

:17:05. > :17:10.operate in the Assembly which will be difficult, a big challenge.

:17:11. > :17:16.Like you, Richard. We are going back to the spin room.

:17:17. > :17:25.You have some new guests with you? Welcome back. We are joined by two

:17:26. > :17:32.men who are from constituencies which were big conservative target

:17:33. > :17:38.seats but in the end state labour, Scott Diamond and will Thomas.

:17:39. > :17:40.Scott, you were voting in the Gower constituency, are you a Labour

:17:41. > :17:49.supporter? I am a paid member.

:17:50. > :17:53.You saw how much of a fight there would be, did it feel like that?

:17:54. > :17:59.It did. There was a lot of party election materials going round, as

:18:00. > :18:05.always. Rebecca Evans was campaigning a lot, I was following

:18:06. > :18:11.her on Twitter. Last year, that is when it really felt hard fought.

:18:12. > :18:20.More conservative posters than I have seen in the constituency. But

:18:21. > :18:21.it was really hard fought, I am glad we kept it.

:18:22. > :18:26.Well, from your perspective, you voted Conservative in the Vale of

:18:27. > :18:38.Glamorgan summer you previously voted Lib Dem, Green, in council

:18:39. > :18:41.elections, what pinned your colours to the mast, was that the sense of a

:18:42. > :18:45.fight? It is a tight constituency, Alun

:18:46. > :18:53.Cairns has been a great MP in the Vale of Glamorgan. Jane Hutt had it

:18:54. > :18:57.forever. I wanted real change in Wales, to get rid of labour who have

:18:58. > :19:02.been lacklustre in Government for someone graduating soon, looking for

:19:03. > :19:05.a job, they aren't creating that environment where graduates want to

:19:06. > :19:11.live in Wales. When you look at the results, the

:19:12. > :19:16.way the Conservatives did not manage to win those key seats, it has

:19:17. > :19:23.dictated the story of the night, where the numbers have ended up.

:19:24. > :19:26.Disappointment, clearly, you were hoping for a bigger change.

:19:27. > :19:32.That is what I was hoping for. It didn't happen.

:19:33. > :19:39.You say you are a Labour supporter through and through, this must be a

:19:40. > :19:43.form your support for the party, keeping labour afloat.

:19:44. > :19:52.We could have done a lot better. Some of the majorities are less than

:19:53. > :19:54.1000. It is definitely a win for Labour in Wales.

:19:55. > :19:59.What have you made of the campaign? You mentioned, we heard from Scott

:20:00. > :20:06.about the Gower where all the placards were out, a visible fight,

:20:07. > :20:10.did it feel like that in the Vale as well, a visible campaign going on?

:20:11. > :20:19.I live just outside Cowbridge, if you drive to Cardiff, it is all

:20:20. > :20:24.across England and conservative. We have had posters from Jane and other

:20:25. > :20:29.parties. It was definitely a close fight.

:20:30. > :20:35.Jane Hutt last night, we were looking at the fantasy football team

:20:36. > :20:41.made up of the new Assembly Members. We had Jane Hutt picked as

:20:42. > :20:48.goalkeeper, Andrew Arty Davies as a wingback, Jenny Rathbone in there. A

:20:49. > :20:57.few names left. Alan Davies we have, Leanne Woods, Kirsty Williams, if

:20:58. > :21:00.you could pick two to go into this team, which would make good members

:21:01. > :21:07.of a fantasy football team of Assembly Members?

:21:08. > :21:15.I think Kirsty. Maybe controversial and not put Leanne forward.

:21:16. > :21:21.Despite her win. She is popular but a knock of Nicola Sturgeon. When she

:21:22. > :21:28.is asked questions, she pauses and things, what would Nicola say? I

:21:29. > :21:33.think Kirsty is better. What about you? If anything, the

:21:34. > :21:41.other way around, Leanne has got to be in there, she is like a tornado.

:21:42. > :21:43.She takes what she wants. You can tell she wants it very badly.

:21:44. > :21:53.That settled it, the blokes are Arab of the picture. Thank you both very

:21:54. > :21:55.much. The football team at least is

:21:56. > :22:04.settled in now. Like you. Let us go to Mark Reckless

:22:05. > :22:09.who joins us from Newport, newly elected a, congratulations.

:22:10. > :22:14.Thank you very much. It feels very good, in particular, that my number

:22:15. > :22:21.two, David Rowlands, who has stood another of times, and falling just

:22:22. > :22:26.short, has been elected. We are both dilated. In south-east Wales we have

:22:27. > :22:30.made a significant advance. A really good night frosts in south-east

:22:31. > :22:35.Wales. Five members so far, you are on

:22:36. > :22:40.course for roughly eight what will be your approach? We have had

:22:41. > :22:43.concerns in the studio from various parties that perhaps the dynamic of

:22:44. > :22:48.the Assembly will change, nobody knows how you will fit in when it

:22:49. > :22:54.comes to committees. Will you be team players? You wanted to shake up

:22:55. > :22:59.the Senedd, change things, how consensual will you be?

:23:00. > :23:04.We well, there will be seven of us rather than eight, and we want to be

:23:05. > :23:10.a breath of fresh air in the Assembly. It has been too cosy for

:23:11. > :23:17.too long. I think there is a Cardiff Bay establishment and the other

:23:18. > :23:20.parties in a lot of areas have more in common than set them apart. We

:23:21. > :23:24.have a fresh approach with new ideas because we want to improve public

:23:25. > :23:28.services in Wales and make things better. Scrapping the Severn Bridge

:23:29. > :23:34.tolls, electing the local health boards, these are constructive

:23:35. > :23:37.proposals and we have gained support from other parties. We are leading

:23:38. > :23:40.the debate in those areas in a constructive way. We are willing to

:23:41. > :23:47.work with others but don't want to be part of a cosy consensus.

:23:48. > :23:53.You would be the awkward squad? It depends how you define that and

:23:54. > :23:58.how others react. All I would say is our intentions are constructive. I

:23:59. > :24:04.think we have some good ideas, I have worked very hard with a team of

:24:05. > :24:09.most of the past year on our manifesto for these elections and it

:24:10. > :24:12.has been well received as a document. I hope we can work with

:24:13. > :24:18.other parties in developing some of those ideas. And ensuring there is a

:24:19. > :24:21.more accountable Assembly, more challenge come committees work

:24:22. > :24:29.better in holding the Welsh Government to account. It has become

:24:30. > :24:31.too cosy. Ukip will be the antidote but we want to do it in a

:24:32. > :24:36.constructive and sensible way for the good of Wales.

:24:37. > :24:40.Earlier in the programme, your colleague Neil Hamilton described

:24:41. > :24:45.living from Westminster to the Assembly as a promotion, is that how

:24:46. > :24:50.you see it? It is a long time since Neal has

:24:51. > :24:55.been in Westminster. I see it as a massive change. I will see and

:24:56. > :25:02.understand and learn and listen and I imagine it will be very different.

:25:03. > :25:08.A much stronger focus on core issues of the NHS, education and transport.

:25:09. > :25:13.My father is a doctor, my family work in the NHS. It is close to half

:25:14. > :25:17.the Welsh budget, the big area for me, scrapping the Severn Bridge

:25:18. > :25:21.tolls I feel strong labour. Working to do more for the economy to make

:25:22. > :25:26.us more competitive. In Newport, I have been talking to the chief

:25:27. > :25:32.executive about making it a stronger city, linking it with Bristol as

:25:33. > :25:37.well as Cardiff, working with the reality of the East- West economic

:25:38. > :25:43.links, making that work better to make Wales better off. It is very

:25:44. > :25:47.different from Westminster. 60 rather than 650 people. I am going

:25:48. > :25:52.into that in a modest way but usually looking forward to it, to

:25:53. > :25:55.work with others for the better good of Wales.

:25:56. > :26:05.Thank you, Mark reckless. Back to the surface. Sarah Dickens,

:26:06. > :26:09.there is a very new dynamic with the introduction of Ukip, what are your

:26:10. > :26:16.thoughts with how that might work with the bigger economic issues?

:26:17. > :26:19.We had that from Mark reckless, he wants to get rid of the Severn

:26:20. > :26:26.Bridge tolls, he wants wider links East West, linking with Bristol,

:26:27. > :26:35.Cheltenham, where we have an awful lot of well-paid chief executives

:26:36. > :26:38.and heads of HQ is. And in the North as well. That will be something we

:26:39. > :26:42.will notice. With these Ukip members, in economic terms, we will

:26:43. > :26:50.have a wider debate than we have had for some time. For instance, they

:26:51. > :26:53.believed economic generation, the boosting of the economy, should be

:26:54. > :26:59.done at local council level, not Government level. Very different

:27:00. > :27:06.from what we have had. Things like, if a community decides we would like

:27:07. > :27:15.fracking, they should be able to do that. That kind of discussion has

:27:16. > :27:17.not been held in the Senedd. In the long-term, wanting to lower income

:27:18. > :27:22.tax. As Mark Reckless Tommy last week, the ideal would be people

:27:23. > :27:30.would live here and work and earn large sums in England, pay lower

:27:31. > :27:35.income tax living here. The idea you would have high spenders spending in

:27:36. > :27:37.our communities. Again, different ideas, not the economic landscape we

:27:38. > :27:43.have been talking about. The question of how Ukip works with

:27:44. > :27:48.other parties is key in terms of achievable at.

:27:49. > :27:57.In practical terms, how will this happen? There are some big projects,

:27:58. > :28:01.tidal lagoon, Tata, people will have to work together because those

:28:02. > :28:08.decisions need to be made quickly. How do we do it?

:28:09. > :28:14.Another controversial element. We have an official BBC production of

:28:15. > :28:17.29 seats from Labour, 12 for Plaid Cymru, what do you make of that, is

:28:18. > :28:24.that in line with your own thoughts? It certainly is. What you are seeing

:28:25. > :28:30.is progress from Plaid Cymru in terms of seats and share of the

:28:31. > :28:38.vote, in contrast to all of the other opposition parties. Ukip has

:28:39. > :28:40.appeared on that scene, taken seats, disrupted the lists from all

:28:41. > :28:44.parties. To have made progress in terms of numbers of seats is a good

:28:45. > :28:52.result. You heard Richard Wyn suggest this

:28:53. > :28:55.is an ordinary set of results for Plaid Cymru.

:28:56. > :29:01.I hesitate to disagree with an old colleague of mine. If you look

:29:02. > :29:09.across the series of results, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff

:29:10. > :29:12.West. These are all merely questions.

:29:13. > :29:18.Indeed, like the Conservatives, had Plaid Cymru taken those, we would

:29:19. > :29:24.have been looking at 15 other than 12. I am pleased we have made

:29:25. > :29:31.progress. The foundations are therefore further progress. A step

:29:32. > :29:34.forward. I would have liked a leap forward, I am ambitious for Wales

:29:35. > :29:39.and the party. In contrast to a number of other parties who have

:29:40. > :29:46.made a step backwards. I will just repeat that official BBC

:29:47. > :29:53.projection which is 29 for Labour, 12 seats for Plaid Cymru, plenty

:29:54. > :29:58.more reaction to come. That will be asked at 8:30am. Time now to hand

:29:59. > :30:08.back to you? It is 8:30am.

:30:09. > :30:11.This is our ongoing coverage of the Welsh elections 2016. The main story

:30:12. > :30:16.of the morning, Ukip has won its first ever seats in the National

:30:17. > :30:23.Assembly. It will have at least 5am is in Cardiff Bay. Labour remains by

:30:24. > :30:28.far the largest party, but isn't likely to have a majority. Outside

:30:29. > :30:30.Wales, there has been some dramatic results overnight in elections

:30:31. > :30:36.across the rest of the UK. David has been analysing them and joins me

:30:37. > :30:42.now. No, he isn't available in Westminster at the moment. But Dan

:30:43. > :30:49.is, because he next to me. Shall we run through what has happened

:30:50. > :30:51.tonight? Labour has remained the biggest party. 26 seats. We have a

:30:52. > :30:57.projection of them being on 29, which would be a loss of one, even

:30:58. > :31:02.if they go down to 28, that is a good result. They have only lost one

:31:03. > :31:05.and that is the Rhondda, the standout results, individual

:31:06. > :31:11.constituency result of the night, where Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru

:31:12. > :31:13.leader, beat Leighton Andrews, who had a big majority for Labour, but

:31:14. > :31:19.no more. Around 5am we got the result from Rhondda. We can hear it

:31:20. > :31:25.now. I do hereby declare that the said Leanne Wood is duly elected for

:31:26. > :31:32.the Rhondda constituency. A new dawn is about to break in Wales. Here in

:31:33. > :31:40.the Rhondda, a new dawn has already broken over the valleys. People have

:31:41. > :31:47.voted for change. A new dawn in the Rhondda, maybe, but not in other

:31:48. > :31:48.seats like Plaid hope to win. It did keep its heartland seats in South

:31:49. > :31:52.and North West Wales. Nevertheless, Rhondda are big disappointment for

:31:53. > :32:00.Labour. This is what Leighton Andrews, the former Labour AM had to

:32:01. > :32:01.say after his defeat. I think there are lessons for the Labour Party

:32:02. > :32:08.which we need to consider. Lessons locally, lessons at a Welsh level

:32:09. > :32:10.and lessons for the party at a UK level. What I am pleased about is

:32:11. > :32:13.what I am hearing, the victories for my Labour colleagues across Wales. I

:32:14. > :32:19.am pleased to have been part of Carwyn Jones' 's campaign team for

:32:20. > :32:21.this election. We have seen of the Conservative challenge in many parts

:32:22. > :32:32.of Wales and we are delivering strong leadership and strong results

:32:33. > :32:33.with Labour candidates across Wales. As Leighton Andrews said, they have

:32:34. > :32:34.seen of the Tories, particularly in north-east Wells. The cost of seats

:32:35. > :32:41.there they were worried apart, places like the Vale of Clwyd. In

:32:42. > :32:47.the South Gower Vale of Glamorgan. Labour are very pleased to hold onto

:32:48. > :32:50.those seats. The Tories, and indifferent night at best. They have

:32:51. > :32:59.kept... They haven't lost any seats, but failed to make gains. They have

:33:00. > :33:00.kept Clwyd West, where Darren Millar returned as the Conservative AM. Of

:33:01. > :33:04.course it is disappointing when you fail to win seats that you've won at

:33:05. > :33:08.the general election. Of course it is. But you mustn't underestimate

:33:09. > :33:12.what we have achieved. When you look at the reduction in the majority in

:33:13. > :33:20.the Vale of Clywd, just next door, when we had very hard-working

:33:21. > :33:22.candidates. He pounded those streets every single day for many weeks. You

:33:23. > :33:28.fail to underestimate just the enormous achievement that it is.

:33:29. > :33:30.Disappointment for the Tories also in Brecon and Radnorshire.

:33:31. > :33:33.Jubilation for the Welsh Lib Dems. Their leader Kirsty Williams not

:33:34. > :33:38.only kept that sees, she increased her majority. She will be very

:33:39. > :33:44.relieved, delighted, in fact, and you can get a flavour of that for

:33:45. > :33:48.yourself. It is a great result. The best result I've ever achieved in

:33:49. > :33:54.Brecon and Radnorshire in terms of a majority and in terms of share of

:33:55. > :33:56.the vote. A massive turnaround for our fortunes here in Brecon and

:33:57. > :34:00.Radnorshire after the devastating loss of the seat last year at

:34:01. > :34:03.Westminster. Those are the constituencies. The regional seat

:34:04. > :34:14.are giving us the other story of the night. Ukip so far have one five

:34:15. > :34:16.Assembly members. -- won five Assembly members. Their first AMs,

:34:17. > :34:21.their first members in the National Assembly. Thank you. Let's look at

:34:22. > :34:32.that BBC Wales forecast. Here it is. Labour on 29 seats, down one. Plaid

:34:33. > :34:38.Cymru on 12, one. You can see the table as it pans out. We look at the

:34:39. > :34:42.share of the vote. We are still waiting for Cardiff West, I should

:34:43. > :34:46.point out. A lot of bored journalists are tweeting asking what

:34:47. > :34:51.is going on with accounting there. A Labour held seat in the last

:34:52. > :34:55.Assembly and potentially another Labour seat or at least one in mid

:34:56. > :34:58.and West region. That is where those 29 come from. It is extraordinary

:34:59. > :35:03.that the Scots have finished counting and gone home and we are

:35:04. > :35:09.still waiting for Cardiff West. A counsellor at the count is very

:35:10. > :35:11.cross, saying, why? What is the problem? Can I suggest the first

:35:12. > :35:16.thing the new Assembly does is sit down and wait out -- work out why

:35:17. > :35:22.this take so long. In terms of vote shares, we seek where Labour have

:35:23. > :35:27.fallen. If they are set to maybe lose only one seat, they have fallen

:35:28. > :35:33.by around five points. They have been extraordinarily efficient in

:35:34. > :35:40.terms of how they have managed that is decline will stop it is only that

:35:41. > :35:44.surprise result in the Rhondda with some extraordinary local factors and

:35:45. > :35:53.an extraordinary local candidates that has dented that almost perfect

:35:54. > :36:01.record. If we can bring this on the screen, the Wales forecast for the

:36:02. > :36:07.share change. Labour down 7%. They won't be too disappointed with that.

:36:08. > :36:12.If they end up with 29 seats, that is a good election. It tells you a

:36:13. > :36:16.lot about the electoral system. They get a third of the vote and almost

:36:17. > :36:22.half of the seats. This is an extraordinarily favourable electoral

:36:23. > :36:24.system to Labour. Good luck to them, they made it work to their

:36:25. > :36:27.advantage. The Conservatives will be very disappointed, they have seen

:36:28. > :36:32.progress in every Assembly election. They have gone back in Wales while

:36:33. > :36:41.they have jumped back in Scotland by eight points. What weather factors?

:36:42. > :36:46.Was it steel? There must be questions about the leadership. You

:36:47. > :36:52.have asked the questions, everybody has played with a straight bat.

:36:53. > :36:59.Clearly Andrew RT Davies is in the firing line. His decision to come

:37:00. > :37:00.out in favour of Brexit as the campaign started clearly puts them

:37:01. > :37:04.off their stride. His decision to stand, not to actually lead from the

:37:05. > :37:11.front and stand in the Vale of Glamorgan, looks like a very poor

:37:12. > :37:12.choice. Given what we have seen in Scotland with Willie Rennie, what we

:37:13. > :37:16.have seen in Wales with Kirsty Williams and Leanne Wood, his

:37:17. > :37:20.decision not to stand in the Vale of Glamorgan, his home patch... That

:37:21. > :37:29.looks like a terrible decision, frankly. I will be very surprised if

:37:30. > :37:36.there are not clouds gathering now around his leadership. Susie Davis,

:37:37. > :37:44.re-elected Assembly member, has got itself back on the South Wales West

:37:45. > :37:49.seat. Bore da, congratulations. On the other hand, not a great night

:37:50. > :37:53.for your party. You didn't get that breakthrough and repeat your success

:37:54. > :37:56.of the general election. I think we are all very pleased by the

:37:57. > :38:00.constituency seats that we held and the fact that the majorities of our

:38:01. > :38:04.constituency Assembly members went up. It is worth remembering how

:38:05. > :38:09.close we came in some of the other constituency seats, as well. Around

:38:10. > :38:14.1000 or under 1002-macro or three of them. A bit extra, we could have

:38:15. > :38:20.done that. Once the dust has settled and all the rest, I think people

:38:21. > :38:27.will understand how close we came in what were previously safe Labour

:38:28. > :38:28.seats is actually a success. You must be disappointed about places

:38:29. > :38:34.like Cardiff North, were you really pushed the boat out and really

:38:35. > :38:38.pressed hard to take that back. Yes, we certainly did. I think it put the

:38:39. > :38:45.fear of God into Labour so much that they did something pretty similar on

:38:46. > :38:46.this particular occasion. They just managed to beat us to it. That

:38:47. > :38:51.doesn't mean we didn't fight that sees hard and with a very popular

:38:52. > :38:55.and capable candidates. If you can't really dent Labour after 17 years in

:38:56. > :39:03.power, and you were offering a change, you get saying that, and

:39:04. > :39:04.surely it is time for a change, and the electorate may be didn't buy

:39:05. > :39:09.that. Why is that? We did make a dent. The seats particularly up in

:39:10. > :39:15.North Wales where we didn't quite take them, but by reducing the

:39:16. > :39:18.Labour majority in the way we did showed that we are about winning

:39:19. > :39:21.constituency sees. There is an Assembly election in five years and

:39:22. > :39:25.I think we will see a completely different result in those seats. As

:39:26. > :39:30.worries you are concerned, no questions of the leadership of

:39:31. > :39:34.Andrew RT Davies? I have no questions over the leadership of

:39:35. > :39:45.Andrew RT Davies, no. Susie Davis, thank you very much. There we are.

:39:46. > :39:49.It wouldn't be on telly, would it? It is unfair for me to raise issues

:39:50. > :39:54.with what Susie has said when she can't join in. We were sitting here

:39:55. > :39:57.earlier in the evening, Andrew RT Davies was assuring us he have been

:39:58. > :40:03.to all the key seats, they had called 100,000 people yesterday plus

:40:04. > :40:11.118,000, if I remember the figure, yesterday. This enormous get the

:40:12. > :40:19.vote out operation. Absolutely confident of making progress. There

:40:20. > :40:23.have fallen back. Susie Davis 's said look how close we came. They

:40:24. > :40:27.did come close in a lot of those target seats. The tally of seats

:40:28. > :40:30.they will end up is way short of what they were talking about at the

:40:31. > :40:33.start of the year for the Conservatives and short of what

:40:34. > :40:38.Plaid where hoping for in the campaign. It is also a loss of

:40:39. > :40:43.momentum. They had a very good result in the UK general election in

:40:44. > :40:46.Wales last year. They needed to maintain and indeed improve on the

:40:47. > :40:54.momentum, if you like. Richard, you think another leader might have done

:40:55. > :40:56.that more effectively. The Vale of Glamorgan result speaks for itself.

:40:57. > :41:00.A very high-profile national politician would have been on

:41:01. > :41:07.camera. We have heard people trying to explain Leanne Wood's performs,

:41:08. > :41:11.as well. Maybe Andrew RT Davies wouldn't have enjoyed that level of

:41:12. > :41:15.focus, but he would have been a very prominent candidates there. He's a

:41:16. > :41:19.local man. That looks like a massive error of judgment in retrospect. I

:41:20. > :41:31.think it was actually obvious in prospect, as well. Not a long time

:41:32. > :41:36.ago, Andrew RT Davies didn't have to choose how to go on the referendum,,

:41:37. > :41:39.four Brexit so early on, could he have carried on with his campaign

:41:40. > :41:45.without being on one side or the other? Of course he could. People

:41:46. > :41:53.like me and Dan would have been asking him how we stand it. -- how

:41:54. > :41:55.he stood. There are certainly see new people in the Conservative Party

:41:56. > :42:03.who were very surprised and outraged. At his decision to do it

:42:04. > :42:05.and the way you did it, and the timing of his announcements. The

:42:06. > :42:10.Welsh Tory conference was completely overshadowed by it. Some feel it was

:42:11. > :42:14.wrecked by David Cameron's speech, coming to the conference, standing

:42:15. > :42:16.in front of Andrew RT Davies and pretty much lecturing him. On the

:42:17. > :42:23.other hand, Labour haven't really hammered him on this because they

:42:24. > :42:26.know that in their heartlands, there are some Labour voters, plenty of

:42:27. > :42:29.them, who are Eurosceptics. If Carwyn Jones is seen to talk about

:42:30. > :42:34.it too much, that the issue may drive those people into the hands of

:42:35. > :42:37.Ukip. Thank you for now. Let's go back to our reporter in the Cardiff

:42:38. > :42:42.County, where they are still counting. We are waiting for Cardiff

:42:43. > :42:49.West. We are still waiting for Cardiff West. The last of the four

:42:50. > :42:53.constituencies here in Cardiff. Still no declaration. We believe the

:42:54. > :43:02.verification process is still ongoing, although it seems, from

:43:03. > :43:03.what I have been told by both Plaid Cymru and Labour sources, that Mark

:43:04. > :43:07.Drakeford will hold onto the seat, albeit with a much smaller majority

:43:08. > :43:12.because Neil McEvoy has pushed hard into second place. There is still no

:43:13. > :43:17.declaration and, quite frankly, a bit of confusion as to why that is.

:43:18. > :43:24.But then has a knock-on effect as to when we actually get the south Wales

:43:25. > :43:27.Central regional declaration. We could be here for hours. Writes, so

:43:28. > :43:33.you are still waiting and you have been chatting to people about Ukip,

:43:34. > :43:41.as well. How that is going to work with the MEPs situation for Nathan

:43:42. > :43:42.Gill. Yes, a strange one. Nathan Gale is a member of the European

:43:43. > :43:45.Parliament as it stands. He has told me this morning that he will stand

:43:46. > :43:54.down from Brussels and Strasbourg as soon as the EU referendum is over.

:43:55. > :43:57.The problem is that the party's candidates for the Wales seat in the

:43:58. > :44:00.2014 election included him, obviously, and Caroline Jones and

:44:01. > :44:05.David Rowlands. They have been elected as a Ms today. The other

:44:06. > :44:10.candidates was James Cole. He has left the party. They haven't got any

:44:11. > :44:13.candidates that can take over his role as an MEP. I asked him about

:44:14. > :44:18.this, said, what are you going to do, and he said one of Dave or

:44:19. > :44:23.Caroline will have to give up their seat in the Assembly and take the

:44:24. > :44:28.seat in Brussels or Strasbourg. It seems their careers in the Assembly

:44:29. > :44:32.could be a lot shorter than hoped. Wow. Off we go on the knock-on

:44:33. > :44:39.effects of what is going on in the Assembly. What would happen in the

:44:40. > :44:45.Assembly? Sorry, say again. What would happen to the vacant seat in

:44:46. > :44:52.the Assembly? The next person on the list? Absolutely. If it was Dave to

:44:53. > :44:59.go, the second person on the list... Sorry, the third person on the list

:45:00. > :45:01.would take that seat. If it were Caroline, it would be the second

:45:02. > :45:04.person on that list. It is a question as to which of those

:45:05. > :45:11.fancies a job in Brussels or Strasbourg. Who knows. We are trying

:45:12. > :45:12.to work it out. It could well be Susan Boucher, we think. We need to

:45:13. > :45:17.make a few more calculations before that. Thank you.

:45:18. > :45:25.I don't know if it is because I have been on air for 11 hours, but I

:45:26. > :45:33.don't really understand that! So, it is going to be musical chairs

:45:34. > :45:37.for the Ukip AMs, between Cardiff Bay and Strasbourg, for at least one

:45:38. > :45:42.of them, provided they are willing, what if they are unhappy?

:45:43. > :45:50.Something we will have to get to. One of the things to be looked at,

:45:51. > :45:56.now we have done extremely well, very, very well, we have already got

:45:57. > :46:01.five Ukip AMs, a terrific result. As a result, all the other people left

:46:02. > :46:09.on the MEP list are elected, a brilliant position to be in. If one

:46:10. > :46:16.of those decide to be in the European Parliament, then we have a

:46:17. > :46:22.choice, either Caroline Jones or Martin, David balance, then sue

:46:23. > :46:27.Bouchier. We have a great opportunity.

:46:28. > :46:35.All brilliant. E fantastic result we will be celebrating at the weekend.

:46:36. > :46:39.Some might say this is a clock up. Five seats and two more regions to

:46:40. > :46:46.declare. You had Nigel Farage saying he would

:46:47. > :46:50.be happy with five seats. We still have two more to declare

:46:51. > :46:54.and we have reached at target. Absolutely brilliant.

:46:55. > :47:03.Surely you wouldn't have put people's names forward...

:47:04. > :47:09.They are fantastic candidates. How can they do another job?

:47:10. > :47:15.They are there because they have done a very good job. That is where

:47:16. > :47:24.we can look at. This gives us another opportunity.

:47:25. > :47:33.You may be jealous we have done very well!

:47:34. > :47:38.Is there a little envy? A party with discipline would put

:47:39. > :47:41.forward only candidates who could be elected.

:47:42. > :47:47.Hang on, the Lib Dems came unstuck on that front.

:47:48. > :47:53.We move people down the list. You did put in in eligible candidates.

:47:54. > :47:58.That was disputable, at the time, that is why the Assembly gave in and

:47:59. > :48:02.said it was not the fault of the candidates but the Electoral

:48:03. > :48:08.Commission. That is another story in its own right.

:48:09. > :48:11.For a party to put up candidates who cannot take their seats strikes me

:48:12. > :48:16.as being pure incompetence. It is not at all. We don't know the

:48:17. > :48:24.outcome of the election. We are not assuming we will get these people

:48:25. > :48:26.in. They were not taking the electorate for granted.

:48:27. > :48:33.We are making the decision post the results.

:48:34. > :48:40.We will move on, watch this with interest to see who gets booted over

:48:41. > :48:42.to Strasbourg and Brussels. Carolyn, what are your thoughts,

:48:43. > :48:47.given the projections, Labour has lost a single seat if that is

:48:48. > :48:56.correct. You are cock-a-hoop about that. It is a big scalp lost in

:48:57. > :49:01.Leighton Andrews. What happens now? Do you expect

:49:02. > :49:04.Carwyn Jones will want to continue as minority government as in the

:49:05. > :49:12.last Assembly? It is not by me to speculate. But,

:49:13. > :49:21.yes, go it alone, we have suddenly got the troops there. A wonderful

:49:22. > :49:23.night for Wales Labour and all our elected members.

:49:24. > :49:28.Some might think it is unfair your share of the vote has dropped so

:49:29. > :49:35.much, yet you have only lost one seat. This is a system that favours

:49:36. > :49:39.Labour in a way which is simply not fair.

:49:40. > :49:43.Well, I get what you are saying, but people have an option at the ballot

:49:44. > :49:47.box and vote for first past the post. If they voted for the Labour

:49:48. > :49:54.Party, that is why. A little bit of history. This was a

:49:55. > :49:59.Ron Davies proposal, leader of the Labour Party at the time before they

:50:00. > :50:08.went into the election in the 1990s, 1997. He said to everyone, I can

:50:09. > :50:10.only get a deal if it favours the Labour Party. That is white in Wales

:50:11. > :50:15.there are only four additional members per region, whereas in

:50:16. > :50:19.Scotland there are seven. Seven means it truly becomes proportional

:50:20. > :50:25.and doesn't favour anybody in the same weight as it does because it

:50:26. > :50:29.has to have that built in edge which helped the Labour Party. We can see

:50:30. > :50:37.it now. That is a point. This result exposes

:50:38. > :50:41.the lack of fair votes in Wales. One of the things I very much hope,

:50:42. > :50:47.following the Wales Bill, is we will have power over electoral

:50:48. > :50:48.arrangements and there can be cross-party debate in making sure

:50:49. > :51:02.those parties who get a third of the votes get a third of the seats, that

:51:03. > :51:04.is democracy. These are first past the post names

:51:05. > :51:10.people have voted for, that is democracy. You vote for a person,

:51:11. > :51:19.you get that person. Which is why Mike and I favour SDB.

:51:20. > :51:24.If the people you vote for other people who get elected, and you are

:51:25. > :51:29.putting numbers against people and you are saying we want that person

:51:30. > :51:40.and if we can't, then I want my vote to pass on and so on. So that the

:51:41. > :51:43.whole system with one ballot paper...

:51:44. > :51:49.There was a referendum to introduce this and it was rejected.

:51:50. > :51:57.That was a UV, quite different. Not proportional representation.

:51:58. > :51:58.It was something Nick Clegg was happy to accept, your party leader

:51:59. > :52:03.at the time. I accept that.

:52:04. > :52:09.And it seems the appetite wasn't there. Is it your argument that it

:52:10. > :52:15.was a flawed system. It was a halfway house. If you said

:52:16. > :52:19.two people, the choice is, this is what you have got now, this is what

:52:20. > :52:25.happens with first past the post, or a system where people get results

:52:26. > :52:33.that vote for, straightforward, no argument that the system but the

:52:34. > :52:37.result, putting power back into the electric, there might be a consensus

:52:38. > :52:44.that in Wales. We have had a Parliamentary

:52:45. > :52:47.by-election as well. Winning it for Labour, I look forward to welcoming

:52:48. > :52:51.him on Monday, I wanted to mention that.

:52:52. > :52:59.The efficiency of the Labour operation is well made. They have

:53:00. > :53:04.managed their boats very efficiently and won a number of seats by small

:53:05. > :53:10.margins. You could say in five years those seats either all tipped one

:53:11. > :53:19.way or the other, which is why you can get 29 or 24. There is much

:53:20. > :53:20.interest in future elections. I do hope they aren't counted quite so

:53:21. > :53:25.slowly next time. You caught me looking at the screen

:53:26. > :53:29.because we hoped to get Cardiff West. Everyone cross everything and

:53:30. > :53:36.hopefully we can do that before we go off air. People are walking on

:53:37. > :53:38.stage. While they get in place to give us that result, the final

:53:39. > :53:44.constituency we are waiting for, if it is another minority government

:53:45. > :53:52.for the Labour Party, what are the key things you think Plaid Cymru

:53:53. > :53:55.will want to bargain over for the key things like budget votes?

:53:56. > :54:03.There have been a series of policy issues we have set out as our key

:54:04. > :54:04.pledges on health, economy, education, I'd expect all those in

:54:05. > :54:09.there. We have had some discussion...

:54:10. > :54:29.We will go to Cardiff West. Cadan ap Tomos, Welsh Liberal Democrats, 868.

:54:30. > :54:45.Gareth Bennett, Ukip Wales, 20629. Mark Drakeford, Welsh Labour, 11381.

:54:46. > :55:03.Sean Driscoll, Welsh Conservative Party candidate. 5,617.

:55:04. > :55:16.Eliot Freedman, independence, 132. Neil McEvoy, Plaid Cymru, The Party

:55:17. > :55:29.Of Wales, 10205. Hannah Pudner, Wales Green Party,

:55:30. > :55:45.1032. Lee David, freedom to choose, 96.

:55:46. > :55:52.The under mentioned person has been duly elected to serve as member for

:55:53. > :56:01.the said constituency, Mark Drakeford.

:56:02. > :56:08.CHEERING The former health minister re-elected to Cardiff West, and

:56:09. > :56:11.Plaid Cymru coming second. It is not on the graphic yet.

:56:12. > :56:23.Making quite a dent. Neil McEvoy. Denting the majority,

:56:24. > :56:32.bringing it down to 1176. Let us take a look at the Shah.

:56:33. > :56:49.-- share. That means a change since 2011.

:56:50. > :56:59.That means a swing from Labour to Plaid Cymru of 12%.

:57:00. > :57:06.Mark Drakeford is back, Richard. He is back but I think that will

:57:07. > :57:10.have been a very uncomfortable night and morning for him. That is a very,

:57:11. > :57:15.very good performance by Plaid Cymru, one does not really associate

:57:16. > :57:23.Plaid Cymru with strong performances in Cardiff. A really excellent

:57:24. > :57:27.result so Neil McEvoy personally. I live in that constituency. An

:57:28. > :57:34.extremely energetic campaign. The turnout also reflects back, I think

:57:35. > :57:38.it was 48% which is a very decent turnout in Assembly elections. A

:57:39. > :57:43.genuine contest and I think Mark Drakeford all know he has been in a

:57:44. > :57:44.battle. Valerie is back for this, welcome

:57:45. > :57:52.back. A performance there as Richard was

:57:53. > :57:56.suggesting in not natural territory for Plaid Cymru.

:57:57. > :58:01.That has a lot to do with the fact Neil McEvoy is a real streetfighter,

:58:02. > :58:05.coming up through local Government, and I wonder whether he was

:58:06. > :58:12.operating by the plied Comrie playbook. I suspect he was following

:58:13. > :58:15.his own campaign and pushing Mark Drakeford hard. Mark Drakeford looks

:58:16. > :58:21.to be a very tired man after a bruising night.

:58:22. > :58:27.Let us go to Blaz go further last time.

:58:28. > :58:35.It is empty behind you now, Ken Link but you are still there. The picture

:58:36. > :58:41.is much clearer now from Scotland. -- Cemlyn.

:58:42. > :58:47.You will be pleased to know that we are the last remaining journalists

:58:48. > :58:51.in the sports hall! BBC Scotland have gone, all the others have gone,

:58:52. > :58:55.but we are still bringing you the latest.

:58:56. > :59:00.And the latest, actually, is quite interesting.

:59:01. > :59:04.We are getting an update, I think I mentioned last time that Professor

:59:05. > :59:09.John Curtice had raised the suggestion that perhaps the SNP

:59:10. > :59:16.would struggle to reach that magic figure, that threshold of 65 seats.

:59:17. > :59:19.That appears to be the case now. Having been talking about this

:59:20. > :59:22.inevitable majority for the SNP throughout the campaign, throughout

:59:23. > :59:28.the night, it now seems as though the SNP will actually fall short by

:59:29. > :59:37.about two seats. They are currently on 63, with one region left to come.

:59:38. > :59:43.Seven seats left to be distributed from that region.

:59:44. > :59:49.The BBC forecast now suggests the SNP will stay on 63, the

:59:50. > :59:56.Conservatives we expect to go from 27 seats up to 31, labour from 22,

:59:57. > :00:03.224, the Green Party to keep six seats. And the Lib Dems to go from

:00:04. > :00:05.four, up to five. The key point there that the SNP are

:00:06. > :00:18.falling short of a majority. That will lead to real

:00:19. > :00:23.disappointment amongst the SNP masses, supporters and members. They

:00:24. > :00:30.did expect a clear majority, like the one they secured five years ago.

:00:31. > :00:37.As we know, this electoral system does make it notoriously difficult

:00:38. > :00:41.to secure a majority and political pundits here in Scotland are still

:00:42. > :00:47.saying it has been a very, very successful night for the SNP, but

:00:48. > :00:51.nevertheless, they will be disappointed that they haven't and

:00:52. > :00:57.are unlikely to reach that majority again. It was worth the wait for

:00:58. > :01:01.that tip and the forecast. Thank you ever so much and don't get caught up

:01:02. > :01:06.in the forklift behind you. Let's go to the spin room. Everyone has gone

:01:07. > :01:12.home there. No, you still have the cardboard cutouts. They asked all

:01:13. > :01:21.wards and you are still going. A prestigious line-up. There has been

:01:22. > :01:24.a lot of chat in this room from economists, health-care workers, the

:01:25. > :01:27.arts, all coming together to make a lot of noise. All eyes on all of

:01:28. > :01:32.these people to see what they can deliver in this new Assembly term.

:01:33. > :01:40.All of them on their way to get sworn in and to start getting down

:01:41. > :01:44.to work. Thank you. Let's get back to the Senedd. You will have to move

:01:45. > :01:51.out soon, because the politicians are coming home. They have already

:01:52. > :01:54.started to arrived. There are finally other people here in the

:01:55. > :02:03.Assembly macro building. Civil sermons here are preparing welcome

:02:04. > :02:08.packs. I have seen one new Assembly member. Already ready to be signed

:02:09. > :02:12.-- sworn in. The BBC forecasting team with just a couple of seats to

:02:13. > :02:19.go are calling it is now in terms of what they are thinking will be the

:02:20. > :02:21.final result. Let's show you what we think will be the make-up of the

:02:22. > :02:25.next Assembly. We have laboured, unsurprisingly, still the largest

:02:26. > :02:28.party with 29, but I've been talking about this all night. They don't

:02:29. > :02:34.cross the winning line in terms of forming an overall majority. They

:02:35. > :02:38.are still short of that. We have a new opposition party, Plaid Cymru,

:02:39. > :02:41.as the main opposition party, rather than the Conservatives, which we

:02:42. > :02:45.have had for the last five years. 12 seats for Plaid Cymru for the next

:02:46. > :02:53.five years. Then we have the Conservatives in third place on 11am

:02:54. > :02:58.-- 11 seats. Then we have the block, the new kids on the block, the Ukip

:02:59. > :03:01.group of seven Assembly members. We are still waiting for confirmation

:03:02. > :03:05.on a few of those, but we're thinking that will be the case. Then

:03:06. > :03:08.the loan Kirsty Williams Liberal Democrat and her constituency is the

:03:09. > :03:15.only one remaining for the Liberal Democrats. That is how we think the

:03:16. > :03:16.next Assembly is going to look. Almost certainly, but what about the

:03:17. > :03:20.next government? There are a couple of options, I guess. The most likely

:03:21. > :03:24.scenario would be that you think Labour, with 29, would go it alone.

:03:25. > :03:29.Would you need 31 for the overall majority. They don't get that. Even

:03:30. > :03:34.if they draw on the Lib Dems, Kirsty Williams, they still don't get that,

:03:35. > :03:38.they are still only on 30 seats. They don't get easy access to the

:03:39. > :03:42.programme of government, all the votes don't necessarily go their

:03:43. > :03:46.way. They could still draw on Plaid Cymru in terms of more support,

:03:47. > :03:49.giving them a huge majority, 41 members. But really, if they are

:03:50. > :03:54.that close to a majority, would Labour wants to have to share the

:03:55. > :03:58.power and cabinet positions with Plaid Cymru? It seems unlikely. Then

:03:59. > :04:03.you have the other side, the opposition bloc. It also seems very

:04:04. > :04:07.unlikely that you will see any sort of cooperation in terms of forming a

:04:08. > :04:10.government there. We are nearly there, but 29 for Labour, but not

:04:11. > :04:17.close to that overall majority. Thank you. Thanks for being with us

:04:18. > :04:21.throughout the night. 11 hours on, I am impressed that no one has had a

:04:22. > :04:27.snooze on the sofa. We have kept each other awake. We are reaching

:04:28. > :04:33.the final few minutes of the programme now, she says with a giant

:04:34. > :04:37.grin. Final thoughts from everybody. A fantastic result for Ukip, we have

:04:38. > :04:45.gained more seats than any other party, increased our votes share

:04:46. > :04:46.more than any other party. This has been a fantastic night for Ukip here

:04:47. > :04:50.in Wales and we are delighted with the result. We have exceeded our

:04:51. > :04:54.target and expectations and we are now potentially set to get as many

:04:55. > :05:00.as seven elected ATMs. That is a fantastic result and we are

:05:01. > :05:04.extremely pleased. -- elected AMs. We are ready to deliver for the

:05:05. > :05:08.people of Wales. We have talked about you being an unknown quantity

:05:09. > :05:13.coming into the Assembly, but it works the other way. That is an

:05:14. > :05:19.unknown quantity for your new AMs. It is a fresh approach and we weep

:05:20. > :05:22.working and our AMs we be working constructively. We will be looking

:05:23. > :05:26.to shake up and centres in Cardiff Bay and make sure we stand up to the

:05:27. > :05:32.increase in Assembly mamas and make sure we are working harder and

:05:33. > :05:38.giving them better scrutiny. OK, thank you. -- Assembly members. A

:05:39. > :05:42.good night for Labour, given what the polls suggesting. How would you

:05:43. > :05:48.sum it up? We have won what we needed to, we have a strategic game,

:05:49. > :05:54.Carwyn has stood out as the leader and the First Minister and that is

:05:55. > :05:58.why we have delivered on the result we have. You deliberately made it a

:05:59. > :06:03.very presidential campaign and it is interesting how the leaders have

:06:04. > :06:10.emerged tonight for at least three parties and possibly four as part of

:06:11. > :06:16.the big stories of the night. Kirsty Williams very much part of that,

:06:17. > :06:20.Mike German, for her great personal win in Brecon and Radnorshire on a

:06:21. > :06:24.difficult night for the Lib Dems. Clearly for others the journey to

:06:25. > :06:29.rebuild after the coalition and general election last year goes on.

:06:30. > :06:38.-- clearly for us. We have a lot of work to do. We can't put aside that

:06:39. > :06:43.wonderful victory that Kirsty has and it is attributed to house party

:06:44. > :06:47.skills -- skills as a party leader that she was able to turn around the

:06:48. > :06:52.5000 majority lost last year to that 8000 majority for her this time. We

:06:53. > :06:59.recognise there is work to be done and I think we are a party that

:07:00. > :06:59.understands what we stand for, we know the direction that we want to

:07:00. > :07:06.be in, the place we want to be in. There is always a place for a

:07:07. > :07:08.liberal movement in our philosophy and an in our society -- and in our

:07:09. > :07:13.society. We have to make it happen and I look forward to more elections

:07:14. > :07:19.next year in which we can demonstrate more success. This is

:07:20. > :07:19.the moment where you turn the corner, you think. From here on in,

:07:20. > :07:25.it is where the party rebuilds rather than continues to get

:07:26. > :07:28.punished. Yes, we note that the figures for this year are better

:07:29. > :07:36.than the figures, the voting figures last year. We move forward. It will

:07:37. > :07:41.be the first election since the coalition in 2010, when we have

:07:42. > :07:44.actually moved forward. That is a start. It is not good enough, it is

:07:45. > :07:49.by no means fast enough and by no means where they want to be, but it

:07:50. > :07:56.is a start. We have made that start and next year we will move on even

:07:57. > :07:57.further. Thank you very much. What are your final thoughts on this? It

:07:58. > :08:06.will be fascinating to see how the parties work together in a format

:08:07. > :08:11.they are now. As from today, what will they do -- what will Labour do?

:08:12. > :08:12.Ultimately, one of the main drive that everyone agrees with is that we

:08:13. > :08:18.cannot continue to be the poorest part of the UK. But how do we get

:08:19. > :08:25.out of that? Will that be backing still for ambitious, expensive new

:08:26. > :08:25.routes for the M4? For the Metro? For our not-for-profit train service

:08:26. > :08:31.right round Wales? What about energy island? Will that happen? Or will

:08:32. > :08:34.those things not come off because they can't get the consensus? The

:08:35. > :08:37.challenges are still massive and the in tray is really full. Some of

:08:38. > :08:45.those things require fairly agent action. Yes, and some fairly

:08:46. > :08:50.risk-taking that doesn't come naturally to some politicians. --

:08:51. > :08:57.fairly urgent action. It is higher risk than other projects, but it can

:08:58. > :09:02.be informative. That's kind of project without an outright majority

:09:03. > :09:05.is very difficult. When you have people as a party who have a

:09:06. > :09:09.different idea of how you lift the wealth of the nation, it will be

:09:10. > :09:12.absolutely fascinating. Certainly, something like the M4, where there

:09:13. > :09:15.is a great deal of scepticism amongst the other parties, and

:09:16. > :09:22.arguably within Labour itself, and whether the black route is the right

:09:23. > :09:25.one. When you sit at home, black route, blue routes, they might sound

:09:26. > :09:30.similar. What Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives want, the blue routes,

:09:31. > :09:35.is very different to the black. It is a dual carriageway that people

:09:36. > :09:39.use well anyway. The black route is a new motorway. How do you get that

:09:40. > :09:45.through? Or do you give up on it? How else do you live us from being

:09:46. > :09:47.the poorest part of UK, which we have been for a long time. We talk

:09:48. > :09:54.about Ukip as the new kids on the block, but there are a lot of new

:09:55. > :09:58.entrants this time around. Mike German, what is it like when you

:09:59. > :10:04.first walk into that place? Will it be comforting to know that lots of

:10:05. > :10:06.other people also don't know what to do or aware they are going? Yes,

:10:07. > :10:09.because in 1999, I walked through the front door, hadn't a clue what

:10:10. > :10:14.the arrangements are beyond the fact there had been a discussion about

:10:15. > :10:19.where we might find a room. But the whole process of walking into a

:10:20. > :10:23.parliamentary system, and people like me had plenty of experience in

:10:24. > :10:27.council work and I had studied Parliamentary work and engage with

:10:28. > :10:30.Parliament, but I haven't actually done any Parliamentary work,

:10:31. > :10:35.suddenly you are faced with a whole change of a structure, a system

:10:36. > :10:39.which the UK has built up over nearly 1000 years, and suddenly you

:10:40. > :10:43.are faced with that massive learning projects. But it doesn't take long

:10:44. > :10:46.because there are plenty of people around who either pull you up

:10:47. > :10:51.because you get it wrong, or who will give you advice and be helpful.

:10:52. > :10:54.The biggest problem is also at the time for the civil servants who are

:10:55. > :10:56.managing and looking after us, because they didn't really know what

:10:57. > :11:00.the new politicians really want and what that might need. I think they

:11:01. > :11:05.have moved on from there. They understood a bit more about what you

:11:06. > :11:10.need and of course there are procedures which are readable now.

:11:11. > :11:16.We have invented, in the National Assembly, a whole set of protocols

:11:17. > :11:19.and nationals -- rationales and created our own way of doing things

:11:20. > :11:27.in Cardiff. It is just a matter of picking that up as quickly as you

:11:28. > :11:28.can. On the big screen, we are looking now at the mid and West

:11:29. > :11:34.Wales count and what we are hoping will soon be... It is in Llanelli

:11:35. > :11:38.and we are hoping there will be an announcement there so that we will

:11:39. > :11:44.have had virtually all the results by that point. One more region to

:11:45. > :11:50.go, once mid and West will declare. That is Llanelli. As you can see,

:11:51. > :11:52.there is a man on two bones there. I don't know how he is managing that.

:11:53. > :11:56.Having been up all night, I couldn't. There is nobody on stage

:11:57. > :12:00.at the moment, but people seem to be looking over their shoulders, which

:12:01. > :12:03.brings me to hope that perhaps people are making their way in that

:12:04. > :12:09.direction. We have to hope that is the case. There is Christine

:12:10. > :12:14.Hamilton, I think, in red there. Neil Hamilton a new Ukip AM's wife.

:12:15. > :12:19.Many people will be familiar with the Hamiltons already. There is Neil

:12:20. > :12:23.Hamilton working towards her. I am stating the obvious now, because you

:12:24. > :12:33.can see all that yourself. While we keep our eye on that, Carolyn, so a

:12:34. > :12:35.13 AMs stood down at the end of the last Assembly. Many of them had been

:12:36. > :12:39.there since the beginning. It is going to be quite a different

:12:40. > :12:44.animal, actually. With Ukip, plus all the other new guys from the new

:12:45. > :12:51.parties. The Lib Dems reduced to one. It is a very different flavour.

:12:52. > :12:54.It is. It is bedded in now, the Assembly is now established. A lot

:12:55. > :12:58.of talent is going into the Assembly. A lot of young,

:12:59. > :13:02.enthusiastic people who are ambitious and they are ready to

:13:03. > :13:06.drive the agenda forward for Wales. Thank you all very much indeed for

:13:07. > :13:10.having the stamina to stay with us. I am very impressed. We're going to

:13:11. > :13:14.hand back to you, Beth, so you can describe what is happening in

:13:15. > :13:18.Llanelli. They are probably ringing each other

:13:19. > :13:22.and texting each other. Christine Hamilton clearly doing some shopping

:13:23. > :13:27.or something. Very busy. That is imminent, which is why we are going

:13:28. > :13:31.to stay on air a list of its longer. Just in case we can get mid and West

:13:32. > :13:36.Wales. Whether Labour squeeze that second seat is really interesting.

:13:37. > :13:41.That projection may be wrong. Would be slightly embarrassing if it is at

:13:42. > :13:42.this stage. Labour could be on