Part 1

:00:11. > :00:17.It is a quarter to midnight. Across the UK, the votes are being counted.

:00:18. > :00:23.Welcome to the BBC election Centre. A year ago, we had a night of drama.

:00:24. > :00:28.Tonight, not long to go on to the results start flooding in. In the

:00:29. > :00:31.studio, Jeremy Vine is looking for the key trends. I wonder whether we

:00:32. > :00:35.can use the phrase British politics any more, with so many different

:00:36. > :00:39.battles going on? In Wales, Labour are dominant for the Welsh Assembly.

:00:40. > :00:44.In Scotland, the battle for the Scottish Parliament. Will the SNP

:00:45. > :00:52.cover more of the match in yellow? Lets not forget the 124 in this

:00:53. > :00:58.council elections too. -- the map. On the giant screen, Emily. Will it

:00:59. > :01:02.be another night of history? The screen will start lighting up as the

:01:03. > :01:04.result start pouring in. I will analyse them to see how the

:01:05. > :01:11.political landscape is changing before our eyes. Watching over us

:01:12. > :01:15.with his team of number crunchers, Professor John Curtice, the man

:01:16. > :01:19.whose exit poll shocked Britain 12 months ago. Leading politicians with

:01:20. > :01:22.us throughout the night, and our political editor Laura Kuenssberg

:01:23. > :01:25.will analyse what it all means for the parties and their leaders.

:01:26. > :01:52.Welcome to Election 2016 on the BBC. The question, what is at stake

:01:53. > :01:57.tonight? What should we be looking out for? Counting is under way in

:01:58. > :02:01.Scotland. This is the scene in Glasgow, where the SNP leader Nicola

:02:02. > :02:05.Sturgeon is one of the candidates hoping to be elected. Not long

:02:06. > :02:09.before she finds out if the SNP has done as well as the polls have

:02:10. > :02:13.predicted. Will it be Labour or the Conservatives in second in the

:02:14. > :02:20.national vote in Scotland? A very important contest. They have started

:02:21. > :02:24.counting in Wales. Electing 60 members of the national assembly.

:02:25. > :02:27.One of them from Llanelli, one of the key battle grounds. Will Labour

:02:28. > :02:31.from another government in Cardiff? Are we about to see the first

:02:32. > :02:36.members of Ukip elected to the national assembly in Wales? All over

:02:37. > :02:39.England, thousands of council seats being contested. Will Labour get

:02:40. > :02:43.through the night without any losses? We will see. Jeremy Corbyn

:02:44. > :02:48.seemed to suggest that earlier this week. Will the public divisions over

:02:49. > :02:52.Europe, not least in the Conservative Party, affect their

:02:53. > :02:56.performance in some way? Not forgetting there is more counting

:02:57. > :02:59.tomorrow for the Northern Ireland assembly, the Police and Crime

:03:00. > :03:04.Commissioners in England and Wales, the London Mayor and the members of

:03:05. > :03:09.the London Assembly. It is a vast range of Democratic contests we are

:03:10. > :03:12.talking about. In a moment, I will talk to my special guests, John

:03:13. > :03:19.McDonnell of Labour and Nicky Morgan of the Conservatives. Laura, what is

:03:20. > :03:24.at stake? What are the big things we need to be focusing on tonight? It

:03:25. > :03:28.is a kaleidoscope of elections. Around the country, people will have

:03:29. > :03:32.been making decisions for all sorts of different local, national and

:03:33. > :03:37.regional reasons. But this does make a difference to the big picture of

:03:38. > :03:42.British politics. The biggest question, where there are the most

:03:43. > :03:46.nervous tonight, are in Labour Party headquarters. This is the first test

:03:47. > :03:50.for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership from the general public. He has had a

:03:51. > :03:54.torrid time since he has been in charge, but he still has the

:03:55. > :03:58.overwhelming support, we think, of Labour Party members. Today is the

:03:59. > :04:03.first time the general public will have had their say. It looks like

:04:04. > :04:07.Labour is expected to make some serious losses, particularly in the

:04:08. > :04:20.local English elections today. And of course in Scotland. The important

:04:21. > :04:23.thing about that is this. Traditionally in these elections,

:04:24. > :04:26.opposition parties gain seats. They are vital steps for any party on

:04:27. > :04:28.their way back into power, to being able to run the country. It appears

:04:29. > :04:31.that Labour in opposition is actually going to lose seats. Of

:04:32. > :04:33.course, that will put much more pressure on Jeremy Corbyn, who

:04:34. > :04:37.especially in the last ten days has looked very vulnerable indeed. We

:04:38. > :04:42.will pick that up with John, but I want to ask what is at stake for

:04:43. > :04:45.David Cameron? The funny thing about this election, the Conservatives

:04:46. > :04:49.have been very relaxed about the local elections. In part because it

:04:50. > :04:53.looks like they might even make a small number of games. Mainly

:04:54. > :04:56.because their focus is so much on the European referendum, trying to

:04:57. > :05:01.contain the very serious official splits inside the party, but also

:05:02. > :05:05.from number ten, the central machine point of view, trying to win that

:05:06. > :05:09.referendum. So the local elections have not been a priority for them.

:05:10. > :05:16.What has been a priority, but we are probably two to much resigned to

:05:17. > :05:22.losing now, is London's City Hall. Boris Johnson has now stepped down

:05:23. > :05:25.from that, and we expect that it would be a Tory disappointment with

:05:26. > :05:32.Zac Goldsmith standing not to win City Hall, and Labour's Sadiq Khan

:05:33. > :05:36.poised to take control there. That is a big safety blanket, if you

:05:37. > :05:42.like, for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, and a big disappointment

:05:43. > :05:46.for the Conservatives. Tonight, real unhappiness publicly now about how

:05:47. > :05:53.the campaign was formed. What is at stake in Scotland and Wales? Again,

:05:54. > :05:56.very different tests. Very different, and really important

:05:57. > :06:00.competitions. These are national governments in Holyrood and Cardiff.

:06:01. > :06:05.In Scotland, we expect the SNP to continue their staggering success

:06:06. > :06:12.story, a third victory there. The last time that election was fought

:06:13. > :06:17.in 2011, it was a huge victory. But even then, the SNP felt like the

:06:18. > :06:21.plucky outsiders. That is completely reversed tonight, and we expect

:06:22. > :06:24.Nicola Sturgeon, an unusually popular leader, will further tighten

:06:25. > :06:31.her grip on Scotland politically. For Labour, the question is whether

:06:32. > :06:35.or not the separation between their traditional vote and the party in

:06:36. > :06:38.Scotland becomes something more like a permanent divorce. In Scotland,

:06:39. > :06:44.the real interest in this election has been the battle for second. It

:06:45. > :06:50.may well be the Conservatives take that spot, unthinkable a few months

:06:51. > :06:56.ago. In Cardiff, can Labour in Wales persist, after 17 years in power

:06:57. > :06:59.already? Let's ask Jeremy Keith take us through more detail when it comes

:07:00. > :07:12.to the devolved bodies. -- to take us. Let's look at what happened in

:07:13. > :07:17.Wales last time, 2011. Voters in Wales have had two votes today.

:07:18. > :07:20.First for someone in a constituency, a locally elected representative,

:07:21. > :07:27.and then a vote from a regional list. Let's look at 2011 and see

:07:28. > :07:32.where it left the Welsh Assembly. As Laura and Huw said, 30 seats left

:07:33. > :07:39.Labour dominant out of 60. You can see the strongholds in the south,

:07:40. > :07:41.around Cardiff and Swansea. Labour, pretty unchallenged in Wales. We

:07:42. > :07:45.will wait to see whether this all-time high result for them in the

:07:46. > :07:52.Welsh Assembly, the best we have ever got, goes down. Does it go

:07:53. > :07:56.below 26? The lowest they ever had. In 2011, the Conservatives were in

:07:57. > :08:01.second. Plaid Cymru were in third. The Welsh Nationalists and the Lib

:08:02. > :08:05.Dems, five seats. We will be watching keenly to see whether Ukip

:08:06. > :08:11.members may be elected for the first time to the Welsh chamber. Looking

:08:12. > :08:17.at the battle ground in Wales. Let's see what might happen if Labour

:08:18. > :08:21.advantage. These seats are what they would be targeting. Maybe amoral

:08:22. > :08:29.question, what happens if Labour falls back? -- a more relevant

:08:30. > :08:35.question. Starting with the order of the most vulnerable at the start,

:08:36. > :08:40.Cardiff Central, Llanelli, Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan and so on,

:08:41. > :08:48.gradually getting safer for Labour on to the safest Labour seat,

:08:49. > :08:52.Aberavon. If Labour start to suffer damage in Wales, we will be looking

:08:53. > :08:58.up here initially. These are the seats logically that would go first.

:08:59. > :09:06.Cardiff Central, Llanelli, Cardiff North etc. Could they go further

:09:07. > :09:10.than that? We will see. Scotland in 2011, as Laura said, a completely

:09:11. > :09:16.different kettle of fish. A storming victory for the SNP. Two votes for

:09:17. > :09:21.voters, set up almost a stock pot is getting an overall majority, but

:09:22. > :09:27.that is exactly what they did in 2011. -- almost to stop parties

:09:28. > :09:34.getting an overall majority. Putting in Labour, you don't much notice the

:09:35. > :09:41.difference. A distant second. They may even go third tonight, who

:09:42. > :09:47.knows? It seems strange to say they did very well in 2011, could they do

:09:48. > :09:50.even better this time? Almost as if we are suggesting they could do

:09:51. > :09:57.something that is out of their reach. It isn't. Let me tell you

:09:58. > :10:04.why. In 2011, this was the percentage the SNP got. 46%, miles

:10:05. > :10:08.ahead of Labour on 32. But they did better in the 2015 general election.

:10:09. > :10:14.50% of the vote for the SNP. More than double Labour. If Labour get

:10:15. > :10:19.this kind of vote tonight, and the SNP replicate that, the Labour seats

:10:20. > :10:24.are in all kind of trouble. You wonder whether they might hang on to

:10:25. > :10:29.any of them at all. Some talk on Twitter that Labour are in trouble

:10:30. > :10:34.around Glasgow. We shall see. The SNP have even improved on their vote

:10:35. > :10:39.since 2011. Let's look at their battle ground. The seats the SNP

:10:40. > :10:44.would be aiming at if they start to gain, which is not beyond the bounds

:10:45. > :10:55.of possibility. The most vulnerable to an SNP advance, East Lothian. An

:10:56. > :10:57.awful lot of red seats to lose. Galloway and Ayr for the

:10:58. > :11:02.Conservatives would be vulnerable if the SNP, way down the first column.

:11:03. > :11:08.If they start to take more seats from Labour, they might bump into

:11:09. > :11:13.Orkney and Shetland. They are the outlying Liberal Democrat seats in

:11:14. > :11:17.Orange, the only two they have left in the constituency section. We will

:11:18. > :11:23.watch this very closely. Are Labour being threatened? The central

:11:24. > :11:26.column... Very interesting. Once you break down these elections, so much

:11:27. > :11:34.going on, you find the picture does get clearer. You mentioned Glasgow.

:11:35. > :11:40.Some early signals. Let's go there to talk to our Scotland editor,

:11:41. > :11:44.Sarah Smith. Just a thought at this stage about the kind of mood music

:11:45. > :11:49.that you are picking up from the parties. I am in the stadium where

:11:50. > :11:53.they are counting the Glasgow seats. I have talked to some of the senior

:11:54. > :11:58.Labour figures who have appeared tonight and they are sounding very

:11:59. > :12:01.depressed. They have looked at some of the papers that have come in so

:12:02. > :12:06.far and they are not optimistic that they are going to hold any seats in

:12:07. > :12:10.Glasgow. Currently Labour have four seats in Glasgow. They could enter

:12:11. > :12:14.night with none. That is what senior Labour figures are telling me. Not

:12:15. > :12:18.happy about what is happening in the rest of the country either. After

:12:19. > :12:21.that disastrous results for Labour in the general election last year,

:12:22. > :12:30.when they were left with just one MP in the whole of Scotland out of 59,

:12:31. > :12:33.they thought they had hit rock bottom. People tonight are talking

:12:34. > :12:35.about how it may be possible for Labour to fall even further in

:12:36. > :12:38.Scotland. If they do, it will be their worst result since 1918, and

:12:39. > :12:42.it will leave people asking questions about the future of the

:12:43. > :12:47.Labour Party in Scotland. Former Labour voters who have gone to the

:12:48. > :12:51.SNP consistently keep voting SNP, in general elections, Holyrood

:12:52. > :12:55.elections, so where do Labour go from there? As Jeremy said, this

:12:56. > :13:01.question about whether or not the Tories could beat them into second.

:13:02. > :13:05.It still looks unlikely tonight but not impossible. Even Labour figures

:13:06. > :13:09.are talking about whether that might happen. Remember of course, because

:13:10. > :13:13.of the PR system that Jeremy described, even if Labour hold

:13:14. > :13:16.almost no constituency seats, and they are struggling to name two or

:13:17. > :13:21.three they might be able to hold tonight, they will still get

:13:22. > :13:24.additional members seats. We're not going to see a Labour wipe-out in

:13:25. > :13:30.Holyrood but we are expecting a bad night. One of the Glasgow seats is

:13:31. > :13:35.Nicola Sturgeon's. When can we expect the first results in Glasgow?

:13:36. > :13:38.A couple of hours before we get them, and we won't see Nicola

:13:39. > :13:43.Sturgeon herself until her declaration is just about due. She

:13:44. > :13:48.is pretty confident tonight. She is going to be re-elected as the First

:13:49. > :13:52.Minister. Making plans, they are going to celebrate tomorrow.

:13:53. > :13:56.Although she is superstitious and she will not let her aides planned

:13:57. > :14:00.down to the last detail. We know the polls are not always accurate but a

:14:01. > :14:04.30 point lead, the SNP seem to be on course to be re-elected as the

:14:05. > :14:09.Scottish Government. Remember, it is quite a feat. Even if they don't put

:14:10. > :14:13.on many seats from 2011, this is an electoral system that is supposed to

:14:14. > :14:17.prevent any party getting an overall majority. They did it in 2011 and

:14:18. > :14:23.they are confident they are going to do it again. I have John McDonnell

:14:24. > :14:28.with me. I will talk to him in a second. To what extent is the Jeremy

:14:29. > :14:33.Corbyn leadership a factor in Scotland? Was this sharply focused

:14:34. > :14:36.on Kezia Dugdale's leadership style? Is it simply that we are talking

:14:37. > :14:43.about an SNP steam roller and anything in front of it cannot last?

:14:44. > :14:49.To a certain extent, you are right about the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon is

:14:50. > :14:54.the most popular party leader across the UK. Kezia Dugdale, the Labour

:14:55. > :14:58.leader, is young, she is quite inexperienced, she has only been in

:14:59. > :15:02.the job about nine months. When you talk to voters, they identify her as

:15:03. > :15:08.the Scottish Labour leader. They don't tend to talk much about Jeremy

:15:09. > :15:12.Corbyn's politics or personality. We saw very little of him in the

:15:13. > :15:16.campaign, a couple of low-key visit. I don't think the Scottish Labour

:15:17. > :15:20.Party thought he was an electoral asset but, if Labour have a bad

:15:21. > :15:26.night, it is difficult to lay that at Jeremy Corbyn's door. This

:15:27. > :15:29.campaign was fought by the Scottish Labour Party on distinct Scottish

:15:30. > :15:35.Labour Party policies and they will have to take the blame. Let's go to

:15:36. > :15:41.Cardiff and talk to James Williams. Just an early sense of how things

:15:42. > :15:45.are going? The big question in Scotland is whether Labour will be

:15:46. > :15:50.pushed into third place but it is very different here in Wales. As we

:15:51. > :15:54.expect that Labour will remain the biggest party, a position they have

:15:55. > :15:58.held since the start of devolution. But, because they have been in

:15:59. > :16:03.government that whole time, they have a record of 17 years to defend,

:16:04. > :16:07.they are expecting a relatively difficult night. They currently hold

:16:08. > :16:12.30 of the 60 seats and they expect to lose anything between three or

:16:13. > :16:17.four seats. Any further and it looks like a very bad night for Labour and

:16:18. > :16:22.the sharks could start circling around Welsh Labour leader Carwyn

:16:23. > :16:26.Jones. The question is which other opposition party will benefit. The

:16:27. > :16:33.Welsh Conservatives have made gains in every assembly election to date.

:16:34. > :16:38.Will they continue? They believe they are doing OK in the number of

:16:39. > :16:40.key marginals. In Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan and a number of

:16:41. > :16:48.seats in north-east Wales, Wrexham, the Vale of Clwyd which turned blue

:16:49. > :16:53.in last year's general election, and the number of others. But will those

:16:54. > :16:58.be offset by regional losses? It could be looking at better at

:16:59. > :17:03.holding their current position. As for Plaid Cymru, the nationalists,

:17:04. > :17:07.they can only look enviously at their sister party, the SNP in

:17:08. > :17:11.Scotland, because they are currently third in Wales and there is no

:17:12. > :17:14.expectation they will do to much better tonight, perhaps move into

:17:15. > :17:21.second at best. A big battle to look out for by them, their leader Leanne

:17:22. > :17:27.Wood taking on Welsh Labour's big beast, Cabinet leader Leighton

:17:28. > :17:32.Andrews. Llanelli, is it which has moved back and forward between Plaid

:17:33. > :17:36.Cymru and Labour, will it turn green again? As for the Liberal Democrats,

:17:37. > :17:41.frankly, it is a question of survival. They are already briefing

:17:42. > :17:45.tonight that Wales could be their biggest task this evening, so the

:17:46. > :17:50.question is, will they hold onto any of the five seats they hold?

:17:51. > :17:55.Undoubtedly, it seems the big story of the night, at least one of them

:17:56. > :17:59.in Wales, will be how Ukip do. We expect them to enter the Senedd for

:18:00. > :18:04.the first time through the regional top-up list system. They could win

:18:05. > :18:10.as many as eight seats, somewhere between five and eight. That would

:18:11. > :18:13.really shake up the Senedd. We are expecting a hung AM. We expect

:18:14. > :18:18.Labour to be the biggest party, but will they have enough seats to go it

:18:19. > :18:24.alone or will they have -- will be need to form a coalition? There has

:18:25. > :18:29.been a by-election in Wales for the Ogmore seat, which has returned a

:18:30. > :18:35.Labour MP in every election since 1918 and we don't expect that to

:18:36. > :18:39.change. Thank you. If Ogmore returned anything but a Labour MP,

:18:40. > :18:44.that would be an earthquake. There are some results coming in from the

:18:45. > :18:48.English local elections, so let's catch up with Emily before we talk

:18:49. > :18:53.to John and Nikki. In the last five seconds, we have had this final

:18:54. > :18:57.result for Sunderland. We knew it would be a Labour hold, it was

:18:58. > :19:02.mathematically impossible for Labour to lose it, but there is the full

:19:03. > :19:07.result that we have had confirmed. The winning post is 38. They need

:19:08. > :19:12.that to hold the council. They are on 67, a majority of 59, which is

:19:13. > :19:17.made of all the other parties' numbers put together. Look at the

:19:18. > :19:22.seat change. You can see what has happened. One game for Labour, the

:19:23. > :19:26.two independents have lost their seats, and the Lib Dems will be

:19:27. > :19:29.happy to see the start of a little comeback. What about the vote share?

:19:30. > :19:40.This is where things get interesting. Let me take you back to

:19:41. > :19:45.this. The share of the vote. 54%, more than 54%, not unusual in these

:19:46. > :19:52.parts of the north-east. The Conservatives in second. Watch the

:19:53. > :19:56.Ukip vote. This is interesting. Last year at the general election, Ukip

:19:57. > :20:01.got about 20% in places like this. Back in 2012, this is the last time

:20:02. > :20:11.these exact seats were fought in this same place, Ukip R R 6%, Labour

:20:12. > :20:17.down 8%. 2012 was really high for Labour in council elections after

:20:18. > :20:21.two years of Ed Miliband. They might be expecting to fall back a bit. If

:20:22. > :20:26.Jeremy Corbyn wants a bit of comfort, it might look to this

:20:27. > :20:31.comparison. A year ago, the local elections, before he took over.

:20:32. > :20:36.Pushing up for Labour, increases of 4% share of the vote. Take this on

:20:37. > :20:42.board with caution. This Ukip drop of 8%. They haven't stood in all of

:20:43. > :20:47.the wars that they stood in last time, so that is why that looks a

:20:48. > :20:53.bit more exaggerated. -- all of the wards. We know that Ukip are getting

:20:54. > :20:58.around 20% of the vote in the wards they have stood in. Trafford, we

:20:59. > :21:02.will see a fight here in this key metropolitan council in the north.

:21:03. > :21:08.One of not many that the Conservatives hold. They have a

:21:09. > :21:11.majority of just five, a battle with Labour, will they hold control? We

:21:12. > :21:17.will be looking out. The opposite story in Crawley, one of very few

:21:18. > :21:21.councils Labour hold in the south. They are defending a majority of

:21:22. > :21:26.one. It has a chequered history between the Conservatives and

:21:27. > :21:29.Labour. If Labour lose a seat, it can go to no overall control. This

:21:30. > :21:36.is somewhere Conservatives could take. One more, and we will be

:21:37. > :21:39.watching this very closely, it can an all-out election, so every single

:21:40. > :21:44.seat is in play. That means there is all to play for, really. You can see

:21:45. > :21:49.bigger changes where all of the seats are being contested. If Labour

:21:50. > :21:52.is having a good night, they will want to build on it. If they are

:21:53. > :21:56.having a bad for troubled night in the south of England, they could

:21:57. > :22:05.lose this cancelled completely. I will handbag. -- they could lose

:22:06. > :22:11.this council. Newcastle, Wigan, save for Labour. We will analyse those as

:22:12. > :22:15.they come through. Some good pointers there as to what we are

:22:16. > :22:20.looking forward to. John McDonnell, Nicky Morgan, thank you. John, we

:22:21. > :22:24.can argue about figures all night, high points and low points, but, as

:22:25. > :22:30.a principle, opposition parties don't really lose seats against

:22:31. > :22:34.governments. They don't really lose seats at this stage of the cycle.

:22:35. > :22:40.What are your thoughts on the possibility that you may be in a

:22:41. > :22:46.position where you lose seats? I think it is more complex than this

:22:47. > :22:50.now. Scotland is really complex. We are at the early stages of Labour

:22:51. > :22:54.rebuilding, but we got wiped out in the general election and we only

:22:55. > :22:58.have one Parliamentary seat left. I think the SNP are still in the

:22:59. > :23:03.honeymoon post-referendum, where they took a clear position and the

:23:04. > :23:08.other parties were divided. Wales, 17 years, it is inevitable we will

:23:09. > :23:15.fall back a bit. As long as we retain control. In terms of the male

:23:16. > :23:21.role elections, again, if we take a majority, it will be a success. --

:23:22. > :23:24.the mayoral elections. I think the local government elections

:23:25. > :23:28.themselves, high point in 2012, you would expect a bit of fallback, but

:23:29. > :23:32.the test for me will be, in the general election, we were about

:23:33. > :23:38.seven points behind the Conservatives. In September, we were

:23:39. > :23:43.14 points behind, so we are making up ground. I am looking for steady

:23:44. > :23:46.progress, laying the foundations for 2020, and I think it will take if

:23:47. > :23:51.you've years before we can rebuild our support base. Why did Jeremy

:23:52. > :23:58.Corbyn say he was not looking to make any losses? No party goes into

:23:59. > :24:04.an election intending to lose seats. It was an expectation. You don't

:24:05. > :24:08.tell your own supporters all of a sudden you are going to lose seats.

:24:09. > :24:14.You want to stand bold and challenging. The reality is that, in

:24:15. > :24:17.every area, the complexities are such that it is difficult in

:24:18. > :24:22.Scotland for Labour. It will take us a while to rebuild. I think Wales

:24:23. > :24:27.will do well, but Ukip are on the scene now. In terms of local

:24:28. > :24:33.government, there was a high point in 2012, the second year of Ed

:24:34. > :24:39.Miliband, the omnishambles budget... A high point under Ed Miliband, you

:24:40. > :24:46.mean. He was making 1600 games in 1996, that is a high point. The 2012

:24:47. > :24:51.wasn't a high point in that sense. He had a surge from winning general

:24:52. > :24:54.elections. We haven't got that. In September, 14 points behind. If we

:24:55. > :25:02.are drawing level and gaining an vote share, we are gaining --

:25:03. > :25:04.building on the foundations. I congratulate our party workers and

:25:05. > :25:09.thank everybody who has supported us, but we always said it would be a

:25:10. > :25:13.long haul. Don't judge us on this election, judge asked over the

:25:14. > :25:18.coming four years. Difficult not to be judged if people say, Ammon, the

:25:19. > :25:24.last time Labour lost seats in a local election was in 1982 and 1985

:25:25. > :25:27.and actually we shouldn't be in that position and that is because how the

:25:28. > :25:32.party is being led. That's what they will say. I know you are looking for

:25:33. > :25:37.dramatic stories, but is more complex. Edicts months ago, we were

:25:38. > :25:44.14 points behind. Now we are drawing level is not going ahead. -- six

:25:45. > :25:47.months ahead. We need to recognise the complexity of these elections.

:25:48. > :25:51.The mayoral elections I think we will do well on those. They will

:25:52. > :25:56.tell us a story about what is happening in certain areas. It

:25:57. > :26:01.sounds like you were trying to suggest, if you lose seats in

:26:02. > :26:05.English local elections, which don't have the complexities of different

:26:06. > :26:09.parties like they do in Scotland and Wales, that somehow it won't matter.

:26:10. > :26:12.No opposition in modern times has gone on to win a general election if

:26:13. > :26:19.they lose seats in these kinds of elections. Of course it matters. We

:26:20. > :26:23.have got councillors tonight who worked really hard and I hope they

:26:24. > :26:28.get re-elected. But what I am saying is, from where we were last year,

:26:29. > :26:35.the despondency of last May and then September to be so far behind in the

:26:36. > :26:39.polls, we are realistic. It will take a while. We are going to

:26:40. > :26:44.rebuild, and we are rebuilding in terms of policy, how we campaign,

:26:45. > :26:48.how we communicate. It will take time. All of our members are

:26:49. > :26:52.realistic. It is going to be a patient build-up of those

:26:53. > :26:58.foundations. What with the state of play for you? Interesting to see

:26:59. > :27:02.what happens to the Labour Party. There are key parts of the country,

:27:03. > :27:06.especially England, where they need to reassert themselves if they are

:27:07. > :27:13.to see how we do in 2020. Clearly we are hoping that Zac will become the

:27:14. > :27:20.next met in London. I think he has run a good, clear campaign. -- the

:27:21. > :27:26.next mayor. Obviously also making sure we keep control of councils we

:27:27. > :27:28.keep control of but the police and crime commission is an important. We

:27:29. > :27:34.haven't talked about them much, but they are important local parts of

:27:35. > :27:40.the community. They hold Chief constables to account, issues which

:27:41. > :27:44.people care about. So we are looking to hold the Police and Crime

:27:45. > :27:49.Commissioners we have got but also to make some gains. I am going to

:27:50. > :27:53.pause for a second. We are going to bring in the former First Minister

:27:54. > :27:59.of Scotland, Alex Salmond. And you for joining us. What are your

:28:00. > :28:04.thoughts on what is likely to happen tonight? What are your sources

:28:05. > :28:10.telling you? My sources tell me it will be a good night for the SNP.

:28:11. > :28:14.Hopefully, we are set to try and achieve what is probably reckoned to

:28:15. > :28:18.be impossible, achieving a second overall majority in a political

:28:19. > :28:22.system specifically designed to prevent that happening, a

:28:23. > :28:27.proportional system. Those of your viewers who don't know, if you win

:28:28. > :28:32.more constituency seats, which we are likely to do, you then can lose

:28:33. > :28:35.them in the regional list because they are counted against you, so it

:28:36. > :28:40.is a difficult system. We are not there yet but there are early

:28:41. > :28:45.indications, especially in Glasgow, where we may have made a clean sweep

:28:46. > :28:49.of the entire city, which would give us great heart, but certainly it is

:28:50. > :28:54.a hugely difficult ask to try and do this but, at this point, we can say

:28:55. > :28:59.we are at least in the running to have that extraordinary achievement

:29:00. > :29:03.by Nicola Sturgeon. Is it at all possible, do you think, that you

:29:04. > :29:10.will end up with every constituency seat in Scotland? No chance, that is

:29:11. > :29:13.nonsense. You can't expect that. There are far more Scottish

:29:14. > :29:17.Parliamentary constituencies than their Westminster constituencies. It

:29:18. > :29:22.is a different context. There is no chance of the SNP winning every

:29:23. > :29:27.seat, but we could win more than the very substantial number we won in

:29:28. > :29:32.2011, when we managed to get that overall majority. It will be many

:29:33. > :29:36.hours before you know the answer to this question, but will we pay a

:29:37. > :29:42.penalty for that on the list vote, or whether our constituencies access

:29:43. > :29:47.will carry forward and allow that overall majority in a proportional

:29:48. > :29:53.system? The majority last time was nine. Do you think it will be

:29:54. > :29:58.smaller or bigger? I have no idea. We are set on trying

:29:59. > :30:02.to get that majority. We are set on trying to persuade journalists who,

:30:03. > :30:06.for the last two months, I've been talking about it as though it was a

:30:07. > :30:10.foregone conclusion, something every journalist said was impossible five

:30:11. > :30:15.years ago, and they have been talking about it like it was a done

:30:16. > :30:20.deal. Our basic opponent in this campaign hasn't been the activities

:30:21. > :30:24.of the other parties, our opponent has been avoiding that complacency

:30:25. > :30:28.and trying to fight that message. Obviously, if your supporters leave

:30:29. > :30:33.it is all over bar the shouting, there is a tendency not to come out

:30:34. > :30:36.and vote. Nicola Sturgeon has rightly been emphasising that there

:30:37. > :30:43.is no room for complacency. If we can achieve that, that would be one

:30:44. > :30:46.of the most remarkable achievements in modern democratic politics, but

:30:47. > :30:49.we are far from there yet and it will be a long night, a long morning

:30:50. > :30:53.and probably a long tomorrow afternoon.

:30:54. > :30:59.At a final thought, if it is that kind of victory that you are

:31:00. > :31:02.outlining, and it means all of those things, you know full well that all

:31:03. > :31:06.of your supporters will be saying straight away that it is precisely

:31:07. > :31:11.the condition being met in order to talk about a second referendum. What

:31:12. > :31:15.would you say to those supporters? Nicola Sturgeon spelt out very

:31:16. > :31:24.clearly her view and the Scottish people's view. Everyone agrees, from

:31:25. > :31:28.John Major to Tony Blair, that there would have to be a Scottish

:31:29. > :31:32.referendum on independence if we got dragged out of Europe against our

:31:33. > :31:36.will. But failing that, Nicola Sturgeon said there had to be a

:31:37. > :31:41.demonstrable wish for the Scottish people for that second referendum.

:31:42. > :31:44.The people who should judge that are the elected representatives of the

:31:45. > :31:48.people of Scotland in the Scottish Parliament. That is our sovereign

:31:49. > :31:51.Parliament expressing the sovereign will of the people. This election

:31:52. > :31:55.will indicate that the people of Scotland are more than happy to

:31:56. > :32:01.leave that judgment about their wishes to Nicola Sturgeon. Thank you

:32:02. > :32:06.for joining us. We will keep a close eye on things. Alex Salmond. We are

:32:07. > :32:11.joined by the leader of Ukip Nigel Farage, waiting patiently. Your

:32:12. > :32:17.thoughts on what is likely to happen tonight? From a Ukip perspective, it

:32:18. > :32:22.is breakthrough night. We are predicted in Wales to win seats. In

:32:23. > :32:26.London, with the count tomorrow, to win seats. In Northern Ireland, we

:32:27. > :32:31.are going to win seats. And in Scotland, it is on a knife edge.

:32:32. > :32:36.Overall, a breakthrough for Ukip. In terms of England, it is a bit early.

:32:37. > :32:40.All we have seen is Sunderland, where we are averaging 23% of the

:32:41. > :32:47.vote in the seats where we have stood, markedly up from four years

:32:48. > :32:51.ago. The big message is that Ukip is now eating very hard into the old

:32:52. > :32:55.Labour vote. That is the message we will take from the performance in

:32:56. > :33:00.these elections. To all of those people who follow Ukip and watching

:33:01. > :33:04.this, they will be wondering what your sense is of the strength that

:33:05. > :33:08.is likely in the local elections, leaving Scotland, Wales and Northern

:33:09. > :33:14.Ireland to one side... What would your guidance be on that? It is so

:33:15. > :33:17.tough to call. In many of the seats, the difference between coming second

:33:18. > :33:26.and first is 50 votes, whatever it is. What you will see is is coming

:33:27. > :33:30.second almost everywhere we stand. The difficulty with our electoral

:33:31. > :33:34.system, as shown last year, 4 million votes and one seat in

:33:35. > :33:37.Parliament. That is very difficult. I still think despite those

:33:38. > :33:42.difficulties we will make advances in England tonight. When it comes to

:33:43. > :33:47.the Welsh Assembly, because it is not so long ago that Ukip wanted the

:33:48. > :33:55.Assembly abolished... Many years ago. It is more recent, come on. I

:33:56. > :34:01.wonder what you want to achieve? If you get members of the Assembly,

:34:02. > :34:05.what are they going to achieve? Under my leadership, we are

:34:06. > :34:10.pro-devolution. I want devolution of powers from Brussels to Westminster,

:34:11. > :34:14.from Westminster at the country. To the Welsh Assembly, the county

:34:15. > :34:19.council, wherever it may be. We are going there constructively, saying,

:34:20. > :34:22.look, devolved powers in Wales have given the worst health service

:34:23. > :34:29.provision in the whole of the UK. And a failing education system. If

:34:30. > :34:34.we can play a positive role, as people from the real world, we will

:34:35. > :34:39.do so. Thank you for joining us. We will keep tabs on the Ukip

:34:40. > :34:44.performance. A thought on that at this point, I am wondering, both of

:34:45. > :34:47.you, when it comes to the English local elections, how do you view the

:34:48. > :34:52.Ukip threat to the Conservative councils? Nigel Farage, I seem to

:34:53. > :34:57.remember sitting here four years ago and hearing that it was going to be

:34:58. > :35:01.a Ukip breakthrough night. We didn't see that then. And last year it

:35:02. > :35:06.didn't materialise either. I think actually it is interesting that Ukip

:35:07. > :35:11.is a threat to some of the Labour seats, areas Labour have taken for

:35:12. > :35:17.granted for a long time. But something we have detected in our

:35:18. > :35:20.canvassing, that there is a big Ukip surge, and actually this is all

:35:21. > :35:24.about Conservative councils showing that they run services well, they

:35:25. > :35:29.keep council tax down, and people recognising that in the ballot box.

:35:30. > :35:34.He went out of his way to say he was eating into the old Labour vote. I

:35:35. > :35:37.don't think any political party should be complacent about Ukip,

:35:38. > :35:41.about any party challenging for votes, and I don't think the

:35:42. > :35:45.Conservatives should either. You have to remember, this is the

:35:46. > :35:48.optimum time for Ukip, with the referendum coming up. You would

:35:49. > :35:53.expect them to do dramatically better than they are doing that we

:35:54. > :35:58.have seen in some by-elections so far this evening. This is the

:35:59. > :36:00.climate in which everyone is talking about the European referendum, Ukip

:36:01. > :36:05.territory, and they are still not achieving the huge breakthrough they

:36:06. > :36:10.would expect. If I was Nigel Farage, I would be a bit disappointed. But

:36:11. > :36:15.we shouldn't take any party complacently, we should tackle them

:36:16. > :36:19.head on in our local areas. It is notable, some of those areas where

:36:20. > :36:23.Labour has traditionally been strong, south Wales, Ukip have

:36:24. > :36:30.performed, as they did in the general election, getting 17-20% of

:36:31. > :36:36.the vote in areas where you would traditionally win. What is the

:36:37. > :36:41.reason? Why are you vulnerable? It has affected Conservative areas as

:36:42. > :36:46.well, to be frank. However, Al party has learned never to be complacent.

:36:47. > :36:51.There is a new enthusiasm in the Labour Party rank and file. -- Al

:36:52. > :36:55.party. Local campaigners are seriously addressing it now. We are

:36:56. > :36:59.campaigning and getting to the issues before Ukip or anyone else

:37:00. > :37:04.can. We are tackling those issues. Our main problem at the moment, all

:37:05. > :37:07.local authorities, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem, are under so

:37:08. > :37:12.much stress because of government cuts in the grant. Central

:37:13. > :37:16.government is causing that. That is where it can read opposition and

:37:17. > :37:21.populism for Ukip, and we have to get the message across. But we are

:37:22. > :37:26.not complacent. -- it can breed opposition. After the general

:37:27. > :37:31.election last year, many Labour MPs thought maybe the kind of hollowing

:37:32. > :37:35.out that the Conservative following had seen might happen to them. In

:37:36. > :37:41.Sunderland, Ukip have polled more than 20% in some areas. That will

:37:42. > :37:45.worry Labour in their traditional areas, they may have to think much

:37:46. > :37:51.more carefully about trying to hold onto their core vote. But there is a

:37:52. > :37:55.wider strategic question for Ukip at the moment, as John McDonnell

:37:56. > :37:59.suggested. We are like in the middle of the referendum campaign. Either

:38:00. > :38:02.way, the party is approaching some kind of crossroads. The result of

:38:03. > :38:06.the referendum will determine their future. If it is lost by the

:38:07. > :38:11.Government, it could be a huge motivator for some Conservatives to

:38:12. > :38:15.go to Ukip, and Ukip could flourish. But if the country votes to leave

:38:16. > :38:18.the European Union, what happens to Ukip? Their core message has

:38:19. > :38:23.disappeared. What do they really want to achieve in the Welsh

:38:24. > :38:27.Assembly if, as we expect, they managed to get posteriors on seats

:38:28. > :38:31.in Cardiff for the first time? Sunderland is a reflective of the

:38:32. > :38:37.work that Labour councillors have done to hold back the Ukip surge. --

:38:38. > :38:41.a reflection. People expected the surge to be much bigger in

:38:42. > :38:48.traditional ager areas. The strategy has been successful. -- Labour

:38:49. > :38:51.areas. We are going to take the temperature in other places.

:38:52. > :38:57.Southampton, such an important contest tonight. Ellie Price, what

:38:58. > :39:01.is your sense of things at this stage? Outline the nature of the

:39:02. > :39:05.contest for us. We have heard from a couple of Labour councillors who say

:39:06. > :39:10.that the Jeremy Corbyn factor simply hasn't been going down that well on

:39:11. > :39:14.the doorstep. It is a precarious position for the Labour council.

:39:15. > :39:19.They control the council by two seats. All of this needs to be seen

:39:20. > :39:25.within a historical context. A lot happen this time around in 2012,

:39:26. > :39:30.Labour swept control of the council with 11 seats that time. It is

:39:31. > :39:35.difficult for them this time around. Plenty of seats to defend and it

:39:36. > :39:39.will be difficult to make any gains. The historical context, it was here

:39:40. > :39:43.that Ed Miliband chose to come and visit the day after the local

:39:44. > :39:52.elections in 2012 and the claim that Labour was on track for the general

:39:53. > :40:01.election. Ed Miliband got egged on that visit. And they lost a seat to

:40:02. > :40:05.the Conservatives. The gains could happen in places like Southampton.

:40:06. > :40:09.It could be reflected across councils across the south of

:40:10. > :40:12.England. All that said, we have also heard from Royston Smith, the MP

:40:13. > :40:18.would took the seat from Labour in 2015. He said the Conservatives are

:40:19. > :40:22.not as chipper as they have been either, so a bit of expectation

:40:23. > :40:30.management on all sides. Thank you. John McDonnell was certainly

:40:31. > :40:35.reacting to some of those remarks. I want to go to Great Yarmouth,

:40:36. > :40:38.another contest where we are certainly looking at the Ukip threat

:40:39. > :40:46.to the Conservatives potentially. Andrew Sinclair, how do you see

:40:47. > :40:51.things? Well, the East of England is always a traditionally Conservative

:40:52. > :40:54.place. Nearly half of the seats up for grabs are Conservative. We

:40:55. > :40:58.expect them to stay Conservative. The interesting thing will be what

:40:59. > :41:02.happens to the Labour seats in the East of England? No results yet but

:41:03. > :41:06.we are hearing a mixed picture. Labour sources are telling me they

:41:07. > :41:10.expect to make a handful of games across the east of England tonight,

:41:11. > :41:23.perhaps in Cambridge, Peterborough and Norwich. But we are also

:41:24. > :41:26.hearing, and this ties in with what you were talking about a John

:41:27. > :41:28.McDonnell a few minutes ago, that Labour is coming under pressure and

:41:29. > :41:30.is worried about losing seats to Ukip tonight in places like

:41:31. > :41:33.Thurrock, Basildon and here in Great Yarmouth. Ukip has had a habit for

:41:34. > :41:36.the last four local elections of causing a bit of an upset me making

:41:37. > :41:42.headlines in parts of East Anglia. They might do that again tonight.

:41:43. > :41:46.Thank you. I would like to bring in the former Conservative leader, the

:41:47. > :41:55.former Cabinet Minister Iain Duncan Smith. Your thoughts on what lies

:41:56. > :41:58.ahead? Over the whole period, I have been campaigning all over the

:41:59. > :42:03.country. The north-west, the East of England and a huge at in London. My

:42:04. > :42:11.constituency is in north-east London, so I spend a lot of time. --

:42:12. > :42:16.a huge amount. Campaigning for the Zac. In London, Zac will have done

:42:17. > :42:20.much better than people and the polling says. I think it will be

:42:21. > :42:25.closed and I hope that Zac will get it, I think he deserves it. But I

:42:26. > :42:30.genuinely see a real closing in the last week and a half. The rows in

:42:31. > :42:36.the Labour Party about anti-Semitism has had an effect. So I am hoping

:42:37. > :42:38.and feeling positive about Zac's chances, and those of the

:42:39. > :42:43.candidates. It was talked about earlier that the Police and Crime

:42:44. > :42:49.Commissioner hasn't even been spoken about in all of this. They are an

:42:50. > :42:56.important feature. I am feeling very positive. I think the story tonight,

:42:57. > :43:00.and John is touching on it in a way, is about the Labour Party. A year

:43:01. > :43:04.into government, you would expect the opposition would start really

:43:05. > :43:09.stepping up towards being a credible alternative to the Government.

:43:10. > :43:13.Therefore, the story should be about the Government losing seats, are

:43:14. > :43:17.they going to be in trouble at this point? And, in essence, I don't

:43:18. > :43:21.think that is the story. The story tonight is the Labour Party looking

:43:22. > :43:27.to defend seats rather than gaining seats. And worried about the Ukip

:43:28. > :43:33.surge in some other areas. One other thing in passing, it is only

:43:34. > :43:37.anecdotal, I accept that, but the number of times I have done

:43:38. > :43:42.canvassing in London, in different areas, I have come across Labour

:43:43. > :43:47.voters who have said to me that they are simply not going to vote.

:43:48. > :43:52.Moderate, centre Labour voters, not turning out. It wasn't about Sadiq

:43:53. > :43:55.Khan, it was really about Jeremy Corbyn. I did detect there was a

:43:56. > :43:58.sense that they really didn't feel like this was the direction of

:43:59. > :44:03.travel for them with the Labour Party. I only say that as an

:44:04. > :44:07.observation, but it is what I heard. We will take it in that spirit. I

:44:08. > :44:11.want to pick you up on the remarks about the Labour campaign in London.

:44:12. > :44:15.You can't escape the fact that the Zac Goldsmith campaign has been

:44:16. > :44:22.heavily criticised in some quarters. Did you think that criticism is

:44:23. > :44:26.justified? No. The thing about Zac, I think he is a very straight

:44:27. > :44:31.player. The whole time I have known him, he is not Doris, he is not

:44:32. > :44:38.going to be full of razzmatazz and Bonn and Bailey shows. -- not Boris

:44:39. > :44:43.Some people are good at that. Some people are not. If you have a city

:44:44. > :44:46.to run, you want someone who is really serious and believes

:44:47. > :44:49.passionately on key issues, like housing and environment and

:44:50. > :44:53.transport, getting these things sorted out. I think he has come

:44:54. > :44:58.across like that. The recent rows about Sadiq Khan are actually about

:44:59. > :45:01.Sadiq Khan's inability to its brain what he was doing on platforms with

:45:02. > :45:06.people who are frankly quite unacceptable. -- inability to

:45:07. > :45:11.explain. It is not an acceptable debate to have about a person likely

:45:12. > :45:14.to have to lead in London. You want to know whether or not what they say

:45:15. > :45:18.to the public is correct, and I think that is a reasonable debate,

:45:19. > :45:21.two eggs on that and decide whether it is true. Not all of your

:45:22. > :45:26.Conservative colleagues agree with that reading. Andrew Gough, the

:45:27. > :45:32.senior Conservative on the GLA, said the strategy of criticising Sadiq

:45:33. > :45:40.Khan for his links to Conservative -- Muslims has been damaging.

:45:41. > :45:45.Baroness Mosley saying that if Sadiq Khan is not an acceptable Muslim to

:45:46. > :45:49.stand the mayor, who is? Lots of people don't share your views on the

:45:50. > :45:54.way the campaign has been run. I don't agree. I'm sorry, I spent a

:45:55. > :45:59.lot of time on the campaign trail with Zac and four Zac. It is quite

:46:00. > :46:03.legitimate to ask serious questions about your opponent's ability to

:46:04. > :46:08.explain what he was doing on platforms with people whose views

:46:09. > :46:12.are quite unacceptable. And are extreme. It is a reasonable

:46:13. > :46:17.question. If he can explain it and produce a decent and reasonable

:46:18. > :46:19.answer, that is part of politics. But I don't believe for one moment

:46:20. > :46:25.that the public wants to have politicians in campaigns tiptoeing

:46:26. > :46:30.around issues that are of vital importance. It is nothing to do with

:46:31. > :46:34.Islam, it is down to the judgment of a politician. Is it your judgment

:46:35. > :46:39.that you just simply try and toss away ideas about the fact that you

:46:40. > :46:42.are in certain places with certain people who are wholly unacceptable?

:46:43. > :46:46.It is a judgment issue, nothing to do with whether or not someone is

:46:47. > :46:50.Muslim, Christian, whatever. That is the real issue of debate and I think

:46:51. > :46:56.it is fair and reasonable. After all, Sadiq Khan questioned Zac's

:46:57. > :46:57.judgment about things and I found it quite legitimate. Zac came through

:46:58. > :47:06.that very well. Do you have any regret that issues

:47:07. > :47:09.of race and religion became the headlines coming out of the

:47:10. > :47:16.Conservative campaign in the London mayoral race, especially when one of

:47:17. > :47:18.the people, Sadiq Khan, when he was criticised for appearing with them,

:47:19. > :47:25.they also appeared on several occasions with Conservative

:47:26. > :47:28.politicians? Everybody who makes -- appears on platforms with people

:47:29. > :47:33.whose judgment is unacceptable and should examine their judgment. They

:47:34. > :47:38.should apologise, explain why and accept it. It isn't that people do

:47:39. > :47:40.it, it is that, when confronted with it, it is what they do to say

:47:41. > :47:46.whether it was right or wrong, rather than trying to dismiss or

:47:47. > :47:50.avoid it. If it is wrong, apologise, say you have made a mistake,

:47:51. > :47:53.recognised it and never do it again. That is being honest with the

:47:54. > :47:59.public. I don't think this has been an issue around race. Last week, we

:48:00. > :48:04.have had this massive debate about Labour anti-Semitism. I was on a

:48:05. > :48:07.select committee some years ago with John Mann and cope when we examined

:48:08. > :48:12.this. It was chaired by a Labour member. We came to the conclusion

:48:13. > :48:17.and reported to Tony Blair that the left had a real problem with

:48:18. > :48:22.anti-Semitism at the time. It seemed very little was done about it then.

:48:23. > :48:27.It was a serious warning, it took evidence across the board, and this

:48:28. > :48:30.was a problem. It isn't a judgment about Islam or anything else, it is

:48:31. > :48:36.how you tackle problems that are there. Do you walk away, do you deal

:48:37. > :48:40.with them, if you make a mistake, do you apologise? It is judgment, not

:48:41. > :48:46.race or religion. Thank you for joining us. We will be following the

:48:47. > :48:52.mayoral race when it happens. That will be into tomorrow, I suspect,

:48:53. > :48:58.not before breakfast. Several things said there, John, in terms of the

:48:59. > :49:01.Labour campaign, and the fact that the anti-Semitism row is clearly

:49:02. > :49:07.affected people's view of things. The way it was handled. What was

:49:08. > :49:12.said, not least by Ken Livingstone. Do you regret the way it was

:49:13. > :49:17.handled? I regret that it happened. I made it very clear early on that

:49:18. > :49:22.Ken Livingstone was wrong and he should have apologised. It has set

:49:23. > :49:26.us back, no doubt. In terms of how it was handled, every individual

:49:27. > :49:29.case that has been referred to us has been dealt with promptly. Ken

:49:30. > :49:34.Livingstone was suspended within three hours. We set up an enquiry

:49:35. > :49:37.which will ensure that we have clear direction for the future and we will

:49:38. > :49:41.come out of this stronger and with the credentials of the party that I

:49:42. > :49:47.thought I joined, which is an anti-racist party with no room for

:49:48. > :49:52.any form of racism. I think at the end of it it will be stronger. Can I

:49:53. > :49:57.say about the London campaign, I know Zac. He has campaigned with me

:49:58. > :50:02.on Heathrow. I am a London MP. He campaigned with me on saving Kew

:50:03. > :50:06.Gardens from the cuts. He campaigned with me on legislation in Parliament

:50:07. > :50:11.on the right to recall MPs, so we work closely together. I am saddened

:50:12. > :50:16.by the campaign that he waged. I don't think it is his character to

:50:17. > :50:21.do that. I think the Lynton Crosby dominance was shown all the way

:50:22. > :50:24.through. My constituency is working class, multicultural. I have been

:50:25. > :50:29.there for 40 years and I love it. This is dividing the community. It

:50:30. > :50:32.is seen as an attack on the Muslim community but we also had letters

:50:33. > :50:39.going out to the Tamil community in my area, letters going to other

:50:40. > :50:42.Asian communities, saying that Sadiq Khan would tax their wedding

:50:43. > :50:50.jewellery, stuff like that. I haven't seen it in 20 years. It

:50:51. > :50:53.isn't Zac's character, I don't know why he allowed it, but I think it

:50:54. > :50:57.has tarnished him for a long time. I am not saying this for party

:50:58. > :51:02.political purposes. Baroness Warsi made it clear, she wanted to

:51:03. > :51:09.disassociate herself from it. Andrew Gough, I know him, he, his mother

:51:10. > :51:14.was a local councillor. He is a right-wing Tory but he said, this is

:51:15. > :51:18.unacceptable. I hope now that we've moved on and this never happens

:51:19. > :51:23.again, not just in our capital city but anywhere in our politics.

:51:24. > :51:29.Aikwood bought an response to the criticism of the campaign. Are you

:51:30. > :51:35.proud of the Zac Goldsmith campaign? He had been tugging about the issues

:51:36. > :51:41.that people care about. He condemned Sadiq Khan for being on a platform

:51:42. > :51:50.with an imam that I know, and I know that Sadiq was campaigning for

:51:51. > :51:56.Shaker Aamer. I know that one of the joint chairs of that Andrew

:51:57. > :52:02.Mitchell, Conservative MP. Zac was alongside that same imam. This whole

:52:03. > :52:13.act from you tonight of more in sorrow than anger, the whole point

:52:14. > :52:21.is that... It is not an act. Sadiq Khan has had to apologise for racial

:52:22. > :52:26.slurs. We are dealing with it. Zac has run a campaign on issues that

:52:27. > :52:29.Londoners care about, housing, safer streets, clean air. These are things

:52:30. > :52:34.that people talk about in London. Once the Labour Party is to attack

:52:35. > :52:38.the campaign, that shows they are losing the argument. It shows you

:52:39. > :52:47.should never get into the gutter like this. All of this sorrow and

:52:48. > :52:51.anger isn't going to wash, John. Tonight... It is Baroness Warsi,

:52:52. > :52:58.Andrew Boff... A year after a general election, the same to read

:52:59. > :53:01.when Michael Foot was leader of the Labour Party. -- the thing to read.

:53:02. > :53:05.This is about whether the Labour Party is in touch across the country

:53:06. > :53:11.and it will be played tonight that they are not. You know very well

:53:12. > :53:14.that the campaign for Zac Goldsmith involved these kinds of things, it

:53:15. > :53:18.wasn't just about housing and air quality. The Prime Minister used the

:53:19. > :53:22.dispatch box to make some of the claims that came out of the campaign

:53:23. > :53:26.and many people in your own party were deeply uncomfortable about

:53:27. > :53:30.that. There is a wider problem about the Conservatives' inability to win

:53:31. > :53:35.London. It looks like they will have exceeded control of City Hall to the

:53:36. > :53:39.Labour Party with an unpleasant campaign that lots of politicians

:53:40. > :53:44.were uncomfortable about. Shouldn't mask the fact that the Conservatives

:53:45. > :53:52.have struggled to keep control of London. It will be a close result.

:53:53. > :53:55.London is a premier, world city. Of course the candidate will care

:53:56. > :53:57.deeply about it, but it has to be right that we talk about the

:53:58. > :54:04.judgment of the candidates and also... Let's pause a second. I

:54:05. > :54:09.think it isn't long before we may get a result from our first Scottish

:54:10. > :54:16.constituency, and I think that that is probably going to be in East

:54:17. > :54:25.Kilbride. That is the constituency of Rutherglen. We will be there as

:54:26. > :54:28.soon as it happened. -- happens. They are gathering, probably looking

:54:29. > :54:32.at some of the notes. What I would like to do is go over to Emily to

:54:33. > :54:38.tell us what to expect and look out for in some of these seats. You

:54:39. > :54:43.asked Alex Salmond if he thought he could win every constituency seat in

:54:44. > :54:47.Scotland for the SNP, and he graciously batted back away, but

:54:48. > :54:53.some people tonight will be waiting to see whether the SNP camp will

:54:54. > :54:58.offer another tsunami. These are the kind of places Labour will be

:54:59. > :55:01.worried about. Edinburgh north, this is the only Labour seat in

:55:02. > :55:06.Edinburgh, their third most vulnerable. They have a majority of

:55:07. > :55:11.just under 600. Neck and neck with the SNP. It isn't impossible that

:55:12. > :55:16.the SNP will knock Labour out of Edinburgh completely by the end of

:55:17. > :55:20.the night. In Glasgow, there are rumours from Labour sources that

:55:21. > :55:25.they think the SNP will take a clean sweep of Glasgow, pushing Johann

:55:26. > :55:32.Lamont, former Labour leader, out of her seat. They have a bright young

:55:33. > :55:37.spark for the SNP, Hamza Yusuf. He could be taking over this seat in

:55:38. > :55:43.Glasgow Pollok. A majority of 600. This is Labour's safest seat in

:55:44. > :55:48.Scotland, Coatbridge and Clyde is done. If this goes, they are having

:55:49. > :55:53.a terrible night. What it closely. They need a 6% swing to take it, the

:55:54. > :55:58.SNP, but it might not be impossible. Let's have a look at one the

:55:59. > :56:04.Conservatives are defending, Ayr. In 2015, all of the Ayrshire seat swept

:56:05. > :56:08.away by the SNP, but this one could still put Conservative John Scott

:56:09. > :56:15.into the Scottish Parliament on the regional list. And the last one you

:56:16. > :56:21.saw last time round the Lib Dems getting pushed right out of mainland

:56:22. > :56:25.Scotland. At the moment, you can see, in the Scottish Parliament,

:56:26. > :56:29.they have these seat of Orkney and Shetland. If Orkney goes tonight,

:56:30. > :56:36.that would leave the Lib Dems with one. They have had representation

:56:37. > :56:39.for the Lib Dems since 1950, so anything the SNP can take from the

:56:40. > :56:44.Lib Dems at a constituency level would be very bad news for them.

:56:45. > :56:50.Something to watch out for. All of that to come. It shouldn't be long

:56:51. > :56:53.before we get the first Scottish result in Rutherglen. Stay with us

:56:54. > :57:02.for that. We will be back in a few minutes. We are going to get a

:57:03. > :57:05.round-up of the news. Counting is underway in elections to

:57:06. > :57:10.the Scottish Parliament, Welsh and northern Irish assemblies and more

:57:11. > :57:16.than 120 councils in England. There are also mayoral contests in London,

:57:17. > :57:19.Bristol, Liverpool and Salford. For Labour, the first big test of public

:57:20. > :57:25.opinion since Jeremy Corbyn became leader.

:57:26. > :57:30.It is the biggest electoral test for the political parties across the UK

:57:31. > :57:34.since the general election. There are 2747 council seat in England to

:57:35. > :57:38.be filled along with four mayoral contests, elections for the Scottish

:57:39. > :57:42.Parliament, Welsh and Moorish -- northern Irish assemblies and lease

:57:43. > :57:48.and crime commissioners. Some of the first results were announced in

:57:49. > :57:53.Newcastle. Nick Forbes has been duly elected... The Labour council leader

:57:54. > :57:57.got an increased majority and the party retained overall control. They

:57:58. > :58:01.also retained control in Wigan and Sunderland. That should be good news

:58:02. > :58:07.for Jeremy Corbyn, but he is under pressure. Labour did particularly

:58:08. > :58:10.well last time when many of the English county council seats were

:58:11. > :58:15.fought in 2012 and it would always be difficult for the new leader to

:58:16. > :58:18.do better, but some of his own MPs already feel isn't making in that --

:58:19. > :58:24.enough progress and the criticism has already begun. We are moving

:58:25. > :58:28.further away from government, and I think that is because we seem to be

:58:29. > :58:32.fixated on some issues that are preferable and we seem to have a

:58:33. > :58:39.team that isn't projecting unity in the party or a vision and policies

:58:40. > :58:42.that the voters want us to seize. These results should be challenging

:58:43. > :58:47.for the Prime Minister, governing parties tend to lose seat at local

:58:48. > :58:51.elections. Tonight, it should be clear whether the spectacle of

:58:52. > :58:56.members in the same cabinet knocking spots off each other over Europe

:58:57. > :59:00.have serious consequences. In Scotland, the polls suggest the SNP

:59:01. > :59:03.will retain their majority, but there is a battle between Labour and

:59:04. > :59:10.the Conservatives for second. Labour are fighting hard to keep control of

:59:11. > :59:14.the Welsh Assembly, where Ukip is hoping to get representation for the

:59:15. > :59:18.first time. In Northern Ireland, the results won't be known until the

:59:19. > :59:24.weekend. The Lib Dems hope to avoid a repeat of last year's meltdown.

:59:25. > :59:28.At least 30 people are reported killed in an air strike on a refugee

:59:29. > :59:34.camp in northern Syria. Images social media should the aftermath of

:59:35. > :59:38.the attack in the glib province. It is close to the Turkish border. It

:59:39. > :59:41.isn't clear who carried out the attack. There are unconfirmed

:59:42. > :59:46.reports that Syrian or Russian planes were involved. Talks are set

:59:47. > :59:51.to resume next week to try to resolve the dispute over the junior

:59:52. > :59:54.doctor contract. The governor and the -- government and British

:59:55. > :59:59.Medical Association agreed in Derry to five days of negotiations during

:00:00. > :00:02.which plans to impose the contract and the threat of industrial action

:00:03. > :00:06.would be put on hold. If the talks go ahead, it would be the first time

:00:07. > :00:11.the sides have met in three months. A huge wildfire in the Canadian

:00:12. > :00:15.province of Alberta is raging out of control, fuelled by powerful winds.

:00:16. > :00:21.The wildfire now covers more than 85,000 hectares. 80,000 people have

:00:22. > :00:26.been forced to leave their homes in the Fort McMurray area. The Speaker

:00:27. > :00:31.of the US House of the -- US house of representatives says he cannot

:00:32. > :00:35.produce aboard Donald Trump as Republican nominee. He says the New

:00:36. > :00:39.York businessman deserved the nomination but he called on him to

:00:40. > :00:42.do more to unite the party. BBC News understands the Ministry of Justice

:00:43. > :00:46.is to take over a troubled young offenders unit in Kent which has

:00:47. > :00:50.been the centre of serious allegations that staff assaulted

:00:51. > :00:54.children. Ministers commissioned an independent investigation into the

:00:55. > :00:58.Medway centre, run by the private company G4S, after undercover

:00:59. > :01:09.filming by the BBC's Panorama. Back now to Election

:01:10. > :01:17.Just getting a result from Orkney, our first Scottish result. The Lib

:01:18. > :01:21.Dems have held Orkney. Some talk there that they wouldn't be able to

:01:22. > :01:26.hold off the challenge from the SNP, but actually it was a pretty

:01:27. > :01:28.handsome win. Details in a moment. A hold for the Lib Dems in Orkney, a

:01:29. > :01:48.very good result for them. There had been some talk of the Lib

:01:49. > :01:54.Dems being damaged because of the controversy around the party in

:01:55. > :01:59.terms of the former Scottish Secretary. However, as you can see,

:02:00. > :02:09.a pretty solid win for the Lib Dems in Orkney. 67% of the vote.

:02:10. > :02:22.The change in the share of the vote, interesting, despite the controversy

:02:23. > :02:32.I talked about, 32%... The SNP down slightly.

:02:33. > :02:39.They swing of 16% to the Lib Dems from the SNP. A very good result and

:02:40. > :02:41.a relief for the Lib Dems. Straight to Glasgow and Fiona is talking to

:02:42. > :02:51.some young voters. The people our age, 18 was the magic

:02:52. > :02:56.number when we could first vote. In Scotland, for the very first time

:02:57. > :03:01.for Scottish Parliament elections, 16 and 17-year-olds have been able

:03:02. > :03:04.to vote for the first time. How ensues to have they been? What

:03:05. > :03:10.parties and policies have they been interested in? We have members of

:03:11. > :03:14.BBC's Generation 2016 windows. They have seen the first result from

:03:15. > :03:22.Orkney. You voted for the first time today. How was it for you? I was

:03:23. > :03:27.quite nervous and excited at the same time. A first time for me.

:03:28. > :03:32.Quite a big thing. A lot of people talk about it. It is also

:03:33. > :03:40.nerve-wracking, you are deciding the fate of your country. But yeah, I

:03:41. > :03:44.really enjoyed it. You also voted for the first time, Hannah. How

:03:45. > :03:49.important that you are involved in the make-up of the Scottish

:03:50. > :03:52.Parliament? I think it's very important. You don't just sit back

:03:53. > :03:58.and watch other people vote, you get to take part in the political

:03:59. > :04:03.process yourself. Amy, another first-time voter. Some people say

:04:04. > :04:07.16-year-olds don't have enough life experience and knowledge to vote.

:04:08. > :04:12.What would you say about that? It is really unfair to say that, you could

:04:13. > :04:16.argue that a large proportion of the adult electorate are equally

:04:17. > :04:21.uninformed. I know we more 16-year-olds who have voted tonight

:04:22. > :04:26.than I do adults. We will keep hearing from you. Paul McNamee, the

:04:27. > :04:32.editor of the big issue. How important do you think it is that 16

:04:33. > :04:39.and 17-year-olds have the vote here, and how engaged are they? It is

:04:40. > :04:41.hugely important. We saw after the independence referendum, when

:04:42. > :04:46.16-year-olds got the vote for the first time, they were immediately

:04:47. > :04:49.buying into it, they were engaged, asking difficult questions. They

:04:50. > :04:54.brought something new to the whole process and they made the parties at

:04:55. > :04:57.in a slightly different way. But I think a lot of the older,

:04:58. > :05:01.established parties did not move swiftly enough. They didn't learn

:05:02. > :05:05.the lessons and they didn't reach out to the younger demographic in

:05:06. > :05:11.this election. Do you think it is something that should be looked at

:05:12. > :05:15.in the rest of the UK? I do. I was initially cautious about it. I was a

:05:16. > :05:19.naysayer who said they don't have experience, they don't know what

:05:20. > :05:22.they are talking about. But they really did their research. They

:05:23. > :05:27.found out things, they showed up. They showed up people who have been

:05:28. > :05:33.doing it a lot longer. They had a voice. I am not surprised that the

:05:34. > :05:37.established parties in the rest of Britain have not tried to bring this

:05:38. > :05:41.through, but I think they should. There is an electorate out there,

:05:42. > :05:47.and if you want to get people in, you have to get them in early. We

:05:48. > :05:50.will be hearing from Generation 2016 through the night. They probably

:05:51. > :05:52.have more stamina than us because they are used to staying up late.

:05:53. > :06:16.Get in touch using the #S B 16. Welcome back. To recap, our first

:06:17. > :06:22.result for the Scottish Parliament is that the Lib Dems have held onto

:06:23. > :06:25.Orkney. That would be a very, very big boost for them. Let's go

:06:26. > :06:30.straight to Emily to take us through the figures. It is an astonishing

:06:31. > :06:34.result for the Lib Dems, particularly after how badly they

:06:35. > :06:42.fared in 2015. They will be very pleased to hold on in Orkney, 67%

:06:43. > :06:48.share of the vote. 4500 majority. The SNP in second, 24%. They needed

:06:49. > :06:53.a 16% swing and exactly the opposite has happened. The change overnight,

:06:54. > :06:58.what's happened here is a second independent did not stand this time

:06:59. > :07:04.around and it looks very much as if the independent votes went to the

:07:05. > :07:10.Lib Dems, up by 32%. The SNP, we have hardly seen them below the line

:07:11. > :07:15.in recent elections. Certainly not in 2011 or 2015. All the main

:07:16. > :07:20.parties in Scotland down, the Lib Dems taking the lion's share of the

:07:21. > :07:26.vote. You might not see this again, a 16% swing from the SNP to the Lib

:07:27. > :07:30.Dems. That was the kind of figure the SNP was getting over lots of

:07:31. > :07:35.other parties at the general election in 2015. This time, it's

:07:36. > :07:40.going from the SNP to the Lib Dems, wasabi as a result of the second

:07:41. > :07:45.independent not standing. The Lib Dems will be delighted to have kept

:07:46. > :07:50.Orkney. -- possibly as a result. I imagine they will be feeling more

:07:51. > :07:54.confident about Shetland too. It would take an 18% swing to the SNP

:07:55. > :07:59.to get in. On this kind of result, they are in the money. That is the

:08:00. > :08:03.emerging picture in Orkney, the first result from this cottage

:08:04. > :08:09.Parliament. Dozens to come in the next few hours. What is the emerging

:08:10. > :08:13.picture in England? -- the Scottish Parliament. Jeremy is going to take

:08:14. > :08:22.us through some. Let me show you the map. This is as it was. 124

:08:23. > :08:24.councils, coloured in as they were when the elections last happened

:08:25. > :08:34.four years ago. Let's target our attention on the

:08:35. > :08:39.Labour councils. A lot of discussion on how we judge their performance in

:08:40. > :08:43.the next ten hours. Let's try and get an answer and look at the

:08:44. > :08:50.different comparisons. The northern powerhouse is the phrase used a lot.

:08:51. > :08:55.It works for Labour around Liverpool and Manchester. In a sense, you

:08:56. > :08:59.expect the map to look like that. It is down in the south, the south-west

:09:00. > :09:01.and the south-east where Labour need to get more competitive to have a

:09:02. > :09:12.chance of winning in 2020. This is the map last time. You can

:09:13. > :09:15.see the Conservative dominance in blue. You can see the odd splodge of

:09:16. > :09:34.red. Exeter there... The vote was as follows. Robert

:09:35. > :09:44.Brown, Scottish Liberal Democrats, 2533.

:09:45. > :09:54.Claire Haughey, Scottish National Party, 15200 and 22.

:09:55. > :10:08.James Kelly, Scottish Labour Party, 11400 and 79.

:10:09. > :10:28.I declare that Blair Haughey is elected to serve...

:10:29. > :10:40.Apologies for the sound, but the figures have confirmed something

:10:41. > :10:45.Labour in Scotland had been fearing, it has to be said. This is a very

:10:46. > :10:52.convincing SNP gain from Labour. It does open up the prospect of more

:10:53. > :10:58.gains for the SNP from those seats that Labour had in the Scottish

:10:59. > :11:03.Parliament over the last five years. 15,000 votes for the SNP. James

:11:04. > :11:07.Kelly had been a member since 2007. A local chap. 11,000 500. The

:11:08. > :11:19.Conservatives in third. 54% turnout, slightly up on the

:11:20. > :11:20.average turnout for the Scottish Parliament five years ago, which was

:11:21. > :11:36.around 50%. What has happened to these votes?

:11:37. > :11:40.The damage to Labour, losing 11% in Rutherglen. The SNP being boosted by

:11:41. > :11:52.7%. A 9% swing from Labour to the SNP.

:11:53. > :11:58.If that is going to be applied across the Labour seats previously

:11:59. > :12:05.held in Scotland, a 9% swing to the SNP would spell extremely bad news

:12:06. > :12:10.for Labour in Scotland. A very important result, that. A

:12:11. > :12:13.significant result. Possibly we will look back tomorrow at the events of

:12:14. > :12:17.tonight and we will spot that and say it was the sign of what was

:12:18. > :12:23.going to happen to the Labour seats Scotland. Professor John Curtice is

:12:24. > :12:29.with us. On that, first of all, what should we read into it? The first

:12:30. > :12:34.thing to note, the swing from Labour to the SNP is of a size that, if it

:12:35. > :12:38.were to be replicated in the remaining seats Labour are trying to

:12:39. > :12:43.defend tonight, Labour would indeed not have any constituency seats in

:12:44. > :12:48.the new Scottish Parliament. It is a big if, of course. Maybe one will

:12:49. > :12:54.stand against the tide but it does not look like good news for Labour.

:12:55. > :12:59.The interest now in Scotland, as it were, the battle for second. The

:13:00. > :13:05.Conservatives are up in Rutherglen, but only by 3-4 points. That would

:13:06. > :13:09.not necessarily be enough for the Conservatives to overtake Labour. So

:13:10. > :13:12.the outcome of that is still uncertain. We have heard a lot from

:13:13. > :13:16.Labour politicians north of the board already that they are heading

:13:17. > :13:22.for a bad night, but we now have a firm piece of evidence to confirm

:13:23. > :13:26.that mood. Stay with us, John. I want to ask Jeremy to finish the

:13:27. > :13:29.case he was making about the English local elections, because he was

:13:30. > :13:33.building a picture. Then I would like to ask you for some

:13:34. > :13:40.conclusions. Sorry to interrupt, Jeremy. It emphasises the joy of

:13:41. > :13:46.this election, so much going on! I was looking at some Labour councils

:13:47. > :13:50.in the south of England. Exeter, Southampton man next to the Liberal

:13:51. > :14:00.Democrat Eastleigh. Hastings as well. The Slough and Stevenage and

:14:01. > :14:04.Harlow. Labour need to do better to expand their influence in the south

:14:05. > :14:09.of England for people to say they have a chance in the general

:14:10. > :14:12.election of 2020. John McDonnell was saying earlier about which year we

:14:13. > :14:17.compare the Labour performance with, because it is a crucial part of this

:14:18. > :14:23.election. What we know so far doesn't do very much more than

:14:24. > :14:29.confirm what one would expect. Labour councillors back in Wigan,

:14:30. > :14:35.Bury, for example. In the south, Tunbridge Wells coloured in blue.

:14:36. > :14:42.Those are the results on the map in 2016. This graft takes us back to

:14:43. > :14:48.2008. It gives us a bit of context. -- this graph. Gordon Brown eight

:14:49. > :14:50.years ago come in third, a disastrous local election

:14:51. > :14:55.performance. Behind the Liberal Democrats. Four years later, Ed

:14:56. > :15:00.Miliband did rather well, coming first in the local elections, albeit

:15:01. > :15:05.he lost the general election. 2012 is crucial. That was the year the

:15:06. > :15:10.council seats we are looking at were last fought. Labour did well, 38%.

:15:11. > :15:14.The point being that they need to do well again to hold what they have

:15:15. > :15:18.got. They need that kind of lead over the Conservatives just to hold

:15:19. > :15:22.onto their existing council seats, which is very difficult. The

:15:23. > :15:26.Conservatives only need more than 31% and they start to gain. We heard

:15:27. > :15:33.the conversation earlier when John McDonnell said, hang on, the

:15:34. > :15:38.comparison is with 2015. In the election year, Labour did less well

:15:39. > :15:44.than 2012. 29% of the vote across the country. Coming second. It is

:15:45. > :15:48.true that you can make a comparison. Maybe by the end of the night we

:15:49. > :15:51.will say, ah, Labour have done better than last year. But the

:15:52. > :15:56.problem is they can improve on last year and still lose seats. That is

:15:57. > :16:01.why we are going to keep going back to 2012 and discussing it again and

:16:02. > :16:03.again. Trying to work out exactly what it is that Labour have done as

:16:04. > :16:14.they get their results tonight. That is the comparison I would like

:16:15. > :16:18.to put to John, books I'm sure John McDonnell will have something to say

:16:19. > :16:22.about it. The validity of that comparison and what we should

:16:23. > :16:28.measure tonight up against. Thereof three obvious benchmarks. The first

:16:29. > :16:34.is last year and, as compared with last year, it is pretty clear from

:16:35. > :16:38.the 50 or 70 or so of the detailed ward results we have collected that

:16:39. > :16:41.Labour are doing better than 12 months ago, and the Conservatives

:16:42. > :16:46.are not doing as well. Though there is some sign of Labour recovery,

:16:47. > :16:52.some of Conservative reverse. The second point of comparison, we have

:16:53. > :16:55.to compare it with 2012, because that was when these seats were lost

:16:56. > :17:00.up for grabs, as Jeremy explained. If we are to looks -- if we are to

:17:01. > :17:05.understand what is going on, we have to make that comparison. That was

:17:06. > :17:09.quite a good year for Labour and it is pretty clear that, compared with

:17:10. > :17:14.2012, Labour are not doing as well tonight as they did four years ago.

:17:15. > :17:21.Before Nicky Morgan gets too pleased about that, I would also say it

:17:22. > :17:25.looks as if the Conservative performance is roughly on a par with

:17:26. > :17:29.2012, which at the time was a disappointing result. The third

:17:30. > :17:36.benchmark is, our Labour doing as well as Ed Miliband did in the first

:17:37. > :17:40.set of local elections that he fought in 2011? Again, early days,

:17:41. > :17:45.but the early evidence is that Labour are not doing as well as then

:17:46. > :17:49.either. So John McDonnell did at the beginning of the evening suggest

:17:50. > :17:53.that expectations shouldn't be too high, progress would be incremental,

:17:54. > :17:57.but there is incremental progress, but perhaps there will be an

:17:58. > :18:02.argument about the size of the increment Labour have been managed

:18:03. > :18:08.to produced. In a moment, we will talk to Labour deputy leader Tom

:18:09. > :18:13.Watson. He is going to talk to us from Sheffield. Thank you. Before I

:18:14. > :18:17.talk to you, I want Jeremy to give us a little more thought on those

:18:18. > :18:25.key wards so I can put some of those points. We look at key wards, a

:18:26. > :18:29.collection of about 900 wards, and we analysed the comparison with last

:18:30. > :18:34.time, 2012 and so on. We can give you a bit of live data. This will be

:18:35. > :18:38.a bit unstable and it will change in the evening goes on but, at the

:18:39. > :18:43.moment, which underlines the point I was making, the comparison is good

:18:44. > :18:48.for Labour with last year, they are up 3%, that is good. If you make a

:18:49. > :18:53.different comparison and look at 2012, a rather good year for Labour,

:18:54. > :18:58.they are down 7%, and that is the point. Ed Miliband went on to lose

:18:59. > :19:05.the general election, so it wasn't that spectacular, but this is a more

:19:06. > :19:09.painful comparison for Labour. Let me take that conclusion to Tom

:19:10. > :19:13.Watson. On that basis, Mr Watson, you are looking at a loss of seats

:19:14. > :19:17.tonight, and I am wondering what your thoughts are at this stage

:19:18. > :19:23.before a lot of the results come in, but that is quietly confident

:19:24. > :19:27.prediction at this point. I am sorry, I didn't see the graft is

:19:28. > :19:31.going up and down, but I do know it is far too early for me to try and

:19:32. > :19:35.speculate what the results will be. You know, I think this is one of

:19:36. > :19:42.those elections where, if we end up with a debate within winning 100

:19:43. > :19:46.seats or losing 100 is good news for Jeremy Corbyn or not, I think we

:19:47. > :19:50.miss the point. Jeremy Corbyn has only been Labour Party leader for

:19:51. > :19:55.eight months. We are coming back from a very low base. There have

:19:56. > :20:00.been many elections tonight, from Kezia Dugdale, a weak position in

:20:01. > :20:04.Scottish Labour, in an existential crisis after the general election,

:20:05. > :20:08.the Carwyn Jones in Wales, and experienced First Minister standing

:20:09. > :20:12.on his track record with a new forward offer, to Sadiq Khan, who

:20:13. > :20:15.has been through one of the most vicious campaigns I have seen in

:20:16. > :20:21.politics. Hopefully he will be successful. To the English regions

:20:22. > :20:25.and councils where there are debates about the future of local services.

:20:26. > :20:29.It is far too early to draw any conclusions. We haven't even

:20:30. > :20:33.discussed the Police Commissioner elections which we will not have

:20:34. > :20:36.results for until Sunday. I can't speculate with you right now on the

:20:37. > :20:41.future of the Labour Party, but you cannot hang all of these results on

:20:42. > :20:45.a new leader of the Labour Party after only eight months. I am sure

:20:46. > :20:50.lots of people watching would agree with that but they would also

:20:51. > :20:54.possibly say that it is very, very unusual for an opposition party to

:20:55. > :20:59.be making losses in an election like this. You've got to go back 30 years

:21:00. > :21:06.to see another case. They would be concerned about your prospects going

:21:07. > :21:08.forward. Politics is always unusual and there are always unique

:21:09. > :21:14.circumstances. Labour finds itself in a situation of two very

:21:15. > :21:22.depressing general election defeats, the last one quite severe, with a

:21:23. > :21:25.huge hit to us in our heartland in Scotland, with the Labour Party

:21:26. > :21:30.membership deciding they wanted to take the party in a different

:21:31. > :21:35.direction in the form of Jeremy Corbyn. It will take time for Jeremy

:21:36. > :21:39.to set out his stall, signpost the direction he wants to take the party

:21:40. > :21:43.in and convince the country. I say to people out there, he will need

:21:44. > :21:48.more time to do that. We need to respect the mandate he was given by

:21:49. > :21:52.our members. On that theme, that is your message, clearly, I am being

:21:53. > :21:57.told by colleagues in Portsmouth that the Labour leader in Portsmouth

:21:58. > :22:02.says, Jeremy Corbyn is a disaster for us, he is incompetent, incapable

:22:03. > :22:05.of giving the leadership we need. What would your message be to those

:22:06. > :22:12.parliamentary colleagues of yours who would be acting on that message,

:22:13. > :22:18.too? I have never met John ferret, but I do follow him on Twitter, I

:22:19. > :22:22.think. He has been saying that about me and Jeremy every day since before

:22:23. > :22:26.Jeremy was elected leader, so I'm not sure that his position is

:22:27. > :22:32.particularly news. But he is sticking to the message. The

:22:33. > :22:36.important thing is, and I am not underestimating how important the

:22:37. > :22:40.views of our councillors are. If we do lose seats, I want to talk to

:22:41. > :22:45.every one of those councillors that uses their seat to find out what

:22:46. > :22:50.voters were telling them. If we have to listen and learn from what they

:22:51. > :22:54.are telling us, we will do. What I'm saying at this moment if it is far

:22:55. > :23:01.too early to try and speculate on and of course John Ferrett in

:23:02. > :23:05.Portsmouth doesn't know the results of these elections. It is almost as

:23:06. > :23:10.though he designed his press release before seeing the results. I ask

:23:11. > :23:14.people to take a bit of time, to be patient, to look at the results and

:23:15. > :23:17.try and genuinely understand what the British people are telling the

:23:18. > :23:21.Labour leadership team they have to do to make sure we can win them back

:23:22. > :23:29.at the general election. A question from Laura. Even Michael Foot won

:23:30. > :23:35.nearly 1000 seats in 1981. The novelty of a new leader. Your new

:23:36. > :23:38.leader, who so excited the Labour Party membership, it seems he will

:23:39. > :23:44.be doing the opposite to the general voting public. What do you say to

:23:45. > :23:47.your colleagues inside the Labour Party you spend your days with,

:23:48. > :23:52.alongside them at Westminster, and you know very well that many of them

:23:53. > :23:56.will look at tonight and be agitating for Mr Corbyn to move on.

:23:57. > :24:03.What do you say to them if the results are as we expect? I only

:24:04. > :24:07.heard part of that question. I think you said, what would I say to my

:24:08. > :24:14.colleagues if we get a poor set of results? What I would say is, look,

:24:15. > :24:19.you know, I have probably spoken to more Labour Party members than any

:24:20. > :24:24.other MP in Westminster this year, and those members have got a sense

:24:25. > :24:28.of decency, and they say, let Jeremy Corbyn set out his stall and give

:24:29. > :24:32.him the space and time to do it. I talk to members on all wings of the

:24:33. > :24:36.Labour Party, the new members, the old members, the members on the

:24:37. > :24:42.left, the members on the right, and they all say, Jeremy has a mandate

:24:43. > :24:43.and we need to respect it. Patience is what I would say to those

:24:44. > :24:49.colleagues coming out with intemperate remarks. Thank you very

:24:50. > :24:56.much for joining us. Maybe we will talk to you tomorrow sometime when

:24:57. > :25:02.we have more results. Tom Watson, the deputy leader of the Labour

:25:03. > :25:05.Party. We are joined from Westminster by Baroness Britain of

:25:06. > :25:11.the Lib Dems. Thank you for waiting to talk to us. After that

:25:12. > :25:15.encouraging result for the Lib Dems in Scotland, one of our first

:25:16. > :25:20.results, what are your prospects in the local councils in England? As

:25:21. > :25:26.with Scotland, the areas where we have been strong, I have been going

:25:27. > :25:29.round over the last few weeks and I have seen a lot of good work on the

:25:30. > :25:33.ground and in encouraging voter response, but I don't think we would

:25:34. > :25:36.ever be foolish enough to say that things were going to change

:25:37. > :25:42.overnight. After last year's result, we know we have a long, hard fight

:25:43. > :25:46.back, and I am hoping we will see at least a steadying of things and we

:25:47. > :25:52.will be where we were before and, with any luck, make a few games. I

:25:53. > :25:55.think Liam's result in Orkney absolutely demonstrates that where

:25:56. > :26:00.we are known well, where our councillors and members are

:26:01. > :26:08.respected by their communities, we still have a strong vote. Where are

:26:09. > :26:17.your best hopes for gains in the UK? It is too early to say. No. Far too

:26:18. > :26:21.early. Because, if viewers are watching, thinking, she doesn't

:26:22. > :26:26.sound that confidence, what would you say? It is very difficult, a

:26:27. > :26:30.year after last year's result, to pinpoint exactly where we will make

:26:31. > :26:33.gains, but we have already made a gain in Sunderland, with an enormous

:26:34. > :26:39.swings us, which certainly wasn't on my radar at all as being one that we

:26:40. > :26:46.would take, although I know we have been working quite hard up there. I

:26:47. > :26:49.think we will be pleasantly surprised by some wins. In other

:26:50. > :26:54.areas, let's hope that we build steadily. Because what we have done

:26:55. > :26:58.in the past when we have had a setbacks. It takes a while, but we

:26:59. > :27:05.have done it. Our members have been keen, but working, thousands of

:27:06. > :27:07.them, making calls and knocking on doors, as the result we have had

:27:08. > :27:14.from Orkney tonight shows we are on the way back. In queue for joining

:27:15. > :27:20.us. Thank you for staying up late. -- thank you for joining us. Let's

:27:21. > :27:24.go to Liverpool and talk to my colleagues there, the political

:27:25. > :27:27.editor for BBC north-west. We are not just talking about local

:27:28. > :27:32.elections, thereon mayoral contests going on, including one in

:27:33. > :27:36.Liverpool. What is your sense of what is going on? Let's talk about

:27:37. > :27:43.the mayoral contest in a moment, but local elections first in your

:27:44. > :27:47.region. Well, a couple of particularly interesting ones here,

:27:48. > :27:52.in terms of the local elections. The first is Stockport. That is a

:27:53. > :27:56.council under no overall control, but the Liberal Democrats are the

:27:57. > :28:00.largest party. They have run it for many years, and they are in trouble

:28:01. > :28:04.tonight. It sounds as if they are going to lose seats, including very

:28:05. > :28:09.likely the leader of the council, Sue Darbyshire. Although it is early

:28:10. > :28:15.days, I think this means that Labour is going to become the largest party

:28:16. > :28:17.in Stockport. That will be a real blow, I think, for the Liberal

:28:18. > :28:22.Democrats in the north-west of England. Another significant council

:28:23. > :28:29.is Trafford. Significant because it is one of only two metropolitan

:28:30. > :28:32.councils that the Tories ran in the country, and there the news is good

:28:33. > :28:35.for the Tories. Not only do they think they have held it, there is

:28:36. > :28:43.even a possibility they have made gains. We will look out for those.

:28:44. > :28:47.Talk to us a bit about the mayoral contest in Liverpool. And what is

:28:48. > :28:53.likely to happen and what the timings are. The timings are

:28:54. > :28:59.slightly disappointing, because we think we might be here until

:29:00. > :29:04.possibly 5am waiting, and it feels like a pretty inevitable result,

:29:05. > :29:09.that Joel Anderson, the mayor of Liverpool, standing for Labour, is

:29:10. > :29:14.almost certain to win a second term. He won it by a landslide four years

:29:15. > :29:19.ago when the role was created and he is almost certain to win again. I

:29:20. > :29:24.saw Joe Anderson arrived a little earlier. It is quite an odd

:29:25. > :29:29.election, in the sense that Joel Anderson only wanted to do this job

:29:30. > :29:34.for one year, course next year the more powerful metro mayor is being

:29:35. > :29:38.created, the mayor for the Liverpool city region, what some people have

:29:39. > :29:44.called the mayor for Merseyside, 46 councils. Joe Anderson wants that

:29:45. > :29:47.job which means, potentially, if he wins tonight, which he almost

:29:48. > :29:52.certainly will, he might not be doing it for very long. Thank you.

:29:53. > :29:57.Exclude Plymouth and talk to our colleagues there. The prospect in

:29:58. > :30:04.Plymouth, talk through what is likely to happen. Here, a fierce

:30:05. > :30:09.battle between the Conservatives and Labour for control of the council.

:30:10. > :30:13.Four years ago, Labour regained control from the Conservatives, but

:30:14. > :30:17.four years later it is a very different story for the Labour Party

:30:18. > :30:21.here. Since last year, they have been running a minority

:30:22. > :30:24.administration. The Conservatives need to gain just three seats to win

:30:25. > :30:30.control of the council. They have been working, they have had a

:30:31. > :30:35.special working arrangements, so the minority administration can get

:30:36. > :30:39.council business through. Talking to the Conservative leader today, he is

:30:40. > :30:43.quietly confident he can get the three games he needs. Looking around

:30:44. > :30:48.the table today, verification is still going on and we don't have any

:30:49. > :30:51.declarations yet, but the sense among the Conservatives is that the

:30:52. > :30:55.Labour vote is down in some areas and the Ukip vote is up. One of the

:30:56. > :31:00.things the Conservative leader there has been emphasising on the doorstep

:31:01. > :31:04.and trying to make political capital out of this Jeremy Corbyn pars

:31:05. > :31:09.leadership, in particular focusing on the particular possible threat to

:31:10. > :31:13.naval dockyard jobs because of Jeremy Corbyn pars objection to the

:31:14. > :31:24.renewal of the Trident deterrent. We will have some more results in a

:31:25. > :31:31.second from Emily. Laura, you have been sent something interesting. We

:31:32. > :31:36.have. Even more interesting considering what we have been

:31:37. > :31:39.hearing from John McDonnell and the deputy leader of the Labour Party

:31:40. > :31:43.Tom Watson. Very firm that these elections are just a step on the

:31:44. > :31:47.road to recovery and that Labour need time. A copy of the speaking

:31:48. > :31:55.notes, which all parties prepare for these kind of evenings, Labour's has

:31:56. > :31:58.been passed to the BBC, written before the results came in. It

:31:59. > :32:02.explains carefully what John McDonnell's defence will be through

:32:03. > :32:06.the night and how the party will explain these results, saying they

:32:07. > :32:11.are rebuilding with a focus on the 2020 general election and it will be

:32:12. > :32:16.a long, hard climb back. Crucially, it explains a strategy whereby they

:32:17. > :32:19.won't be looking at the 2012 elections, which normally in these

:32:20. > :32:30.kinds of elections would be what we would look at for accurate

:32:31. > :32:33.comparisons, but instead they will be looking to compare the share of

:32:34. > :32:35.the vote at the general election last year with what happens tonight.

:32:36. > :32:37.Professor John Curtice explained in detail how seriously we should take

:32:38. > :32:41.these different sets of numbers, but this shows very clearly that the

:32:42. > :32:46.Labour Party has had to prepare its excuses very, very carefully to

:32:47. > :32:49.explain away any criticism from what we traditionally expect their

:32:50. > :32:58.performance to be on a night like this. Is that fair, John? I think I

:32:59. > :33:02.wrote them! They are not excuses. I thought John Curtice was extremely

:33:03. > :33:08.fair. You can take different things and comparisons, what I compared was

:33:09. > :33:12.how far and the Jeremy Corbyn have we come since the last general

:33:13. > :33:22.election and since he was elected? -- how far under Jeremy Corbyn. We

:33:23. > :33:28.were 14 points behind when he became leader. If we are gaining on that,

:33:29. > :33:34.it is progress for us. I think it was a fair assessment. Where we are

:33:35. > :33:40.going now is steady progress. I genuinely think there will be mixed

:33:41. > :33:45.results tonight, because of the complexities of Scotland, Wales and

:33:46. > :33:48.etc. I think we will get a bit of a significant boost from the Mayoral

:33:49. > :33:52.elections and that will help morale overall, but I think we are on

:33:53. > :33:58.course with a four year programme for Labour in exactly the way we

:33:59. > :34:02.expected. Let's see if Emily's results give us a bit more context.

:34:03. > :34:06.This is exactly why this argument matters. It is not just about the

:34:07. > :34:10.results, it is about the way you read the results. What is starting

:34:11. > :34:15.to emerge is the pattern John McDonnell and Laura have described.

:34:16. > :34:19.In Bury, Greater Manchester, it is a Labour hold, never in any doubt.

:34:20. > :34:26.Even though there are still two more seats to declare, Labour is on 31.

:34:27. > :34:31.That is the overall story. But here is where it gets interesting. If I

:34:32. > :34:37.take you to the last time these seats were fought in 2012, you can

:34:38. > :34:42.see the Labour share of the vote looks like it has fallen

:34:43. > :34:50.dramatically. The Labour share of the vote was down seven. Taking you

:34:51. > :34:54.back to 2012, the Labour share of the vote was down by seven and the

:34:55. > :34:59.Conservatives were up by six. So if used art from that point of view, it

:35:00. > :35:03.looks like the Labour Party are going backwards. They will tell you

:35:04. > :35:09.it is a high water mark, but have they gone backwards since then? A

:35:10. > :35:13.year ago, not the same seats but the same council, council elections, you

:35:14. > :35:19.start to see a pattern emerging. Labour up a little bit, 4%. The

:35:20. > :35:23.Conservatives also up a bit, but Labour rising more quickly. Ukip is

:35:24. > :35:28.a complication, because not as many Ukip people have stood in the same

:35:29. > :35:32.seats this time around. That really goes to the heart of this story. We

:35:33. > :35:46.are starting to see it repeated in other places. Bolton, 34-15.

:35:47. > :35:50.Back in 2012, the Labour vote is down 10%. Not a figure they will be

:35:51. > :35:54.happy to see. Ukip up 19%. Their high watermark was in 2013. If you

:35:55. > :35:58.go back 12 months, the first signs of growth for Jeremy Corbyn and John

:35:59. > :36:04.McDonnell's Labour Party as opposed to Ed Miliband's. The point I am

:36:05. > :36:09.making is if you compare from when Jeremy took over until now, we are

:36:10. > :36:14.on a clear path of improvement. Nothing more. I don't want to

:36:15. > :36:18.overemphasise, I am just saying that is exactly what our strategy is all

:36:19. > :36:23.about. That is what the briefing I wrote is all about. I don't take the

:36:24. > :36:27.other comparisons lightly either. John Curtice has some good points to

:36:28. > :36:32.make about comparisons with individual local authorities. Your

:36:33. > :36:37.colleagues inside the Labour Parliamentary party, some of them

:36:38. > :36:42.have said it privately, that at this point in the cycle you should be

:36:43. > :36:48.winning hundreds of seats... That was never realistic, and they know

:36:49. > :36:52.that as well. The issue is from... Is our share of the vote going up?

:36:53. > :36:59.Yes. In the north-east, we have just had a swing to Labour of 4%. Is it

:37:00. > :37:05.steady progress? Yes. Have we got four years to go? Yes. We lost the

:37:06. > :37:09.last general election on economic credibility. We are rebuilding that

:37:10. > :37:13.on the basis of the advice we get, the policies we put forward, the

:37:14. > :37:18.debate we are having. It is going to take time and the party members know

:37:19. > :37:22.that. They are campaigning and it is wonderful, but they know it will be

:37:23. > :37:29.a tough slog. We will say goodbye to both of you quite soon, I am sad to

:37:30. > :37:34.say. A final word on John Curtice's quite firm message a few minutes

:37:35. > :37:39.ago... On the basis of what we have seen so far, the comparison with

:37:40. > :37:46.2012 again, it's not terrific for you so far? Why? Obviously we are

:37:47. > :37:51.year into a general election, still having to do difficult things to

:37:52. > :37:57.rebalance the economy. We have to look at 2012. I am happy to take the

:37:58. > :38:01.thing about our performance compared to 2012, but we have to look at the

:38:02. > :38:05.Labour performance, comparing like with like. John can write what he

:38:06. > :38:11.wants and try to explain it away, but in 2012, Ed Miliband was gaining

:38:12. > :38:15.hundreds of seats. People in the Parliamentary Labour Party, Jeremy

:38:16. > :38:19.Corbyn promising to bring millions of voters, they have to gain 400

:38:20. > :38:23.seats... Jeremy Corbyn said they would not lose any seats. Those

:38:24. > :38:27.things are not going to come to pass. Labour is not winning seats in

:38:28. > :38:33.the heartlands it needs in order to think about being a government in

:38:34. > :38:37.2020. Ruth Davidson has run a fantastic campaign in Scotland. We

:38:38. > :38:42.have to see what is going to happen there. But for the Conservatives to

:38:43. > :38:47.be run-in close in Scotland... We would not have thought that a couple

:38:48. > :38:50.of years ago. -- to be running close. It shows when a Labour Party

:38:51. > :38:55.leader stands up and starts talks about taxing people more, when they

:38:56. > :38:59.earn ?20,000, people don't like that. John can talk about rebuilding

:39:00. > :39:04.economic credibility but it is not happening as far as the voters in

:39:05. > :39:07.the heartland of England are concerned. We shall see the end the

:39:08. > :39:15.night. We are going to go to Glasgow. I am going to talk to the

:39:16. > :39:19.former MP for Glasgow Central. On the list for the Scottish Parliament

:39:20. > :39:24.this time. Your sense of how things are going so far, given that

:39:25. > :39:30.Scottish Labour have had some sporting results already? I think we

:39:31. > :39:35.knew from the outset that this would be a challenging night. I am

:39:36. > :39:39.confident we can get good results in Edinburgh South, where we have a

:39:40. > :39:46.great candidate, Daniel Johnson. And in East Lothian, we have a shout

:39:47. > :39:49.with Iain Gray. A long night ahead. What will it mean for the Scottish

:39:50. > :39:56.Labour Party at the end of that long night? Demonstrating we have had

:39:57. > :39:59.five years of talking about what Scotland cannot do, but actually now

:40:00. > :40:04.we need to focus on what Scotland can do with the powers it has in

:40:05. > :40:08.Scotland. Using the tax powers to fight austerity and invest in public

:40:09. > :40:12.services. What we have seen tonight is hopefully an endorsement for

:40:13. > :40:17.those views and a platform on which we will fight the SNP had over the

:40:18. > :40:22.next five years. Share with the viewers that you were the deputy

:40:23. > :40:27.leader of Scottish Labour between 2011 and 2014. The report into

:40:28. > :40:32.Scottish Labour, one of the most damning things it said was that you

:40:33. > :40:35.were too similar to the Conservatives and people could not

:40:36. > :40:41.distinguish. Is that the result of your continued adherence to

:40:42. > :40:49.Westminster, that sort of pattern, in the past? What is it about?

:40:50. > :40:54.Firstly, I was part of the leadership when we won the council

:40:55. > :40:57.elections last time. We were successful in a referendum. More

:40:58. > :41:01.importantly in this campaign it is clear to see who talks the language

:41:02. > :41:05.of socialism and who puts policies forward to fight austerity and

:41:06. > :41:09.improve public services. The SNP promised a 50% tax band last year,

:41:10. > :41:14.they scrapped it this year. They have got the tax powers now but they

:41:15. > :41:18.have refused to use it. Instead they want to take the Tory cuts from

:41:19. > :41:23.Westminster and hand them down to Scotland. We have demonstrated in

:41:24. > :41:27.this election that we are on the right side of the argument in terms

:41:28. > :41:31.of the socialist left-wing platform and we are proud of that record and

:41:32. > :41:35.that platform in this election. In which case, I am bound to ask, why

:41:36. > :41:41.do you think the voters of Rutherglen voted as they did? If we

:41:42. > :41:47.are honest, it was too soon for us. A challenging number of years here

:41:48. > :41:49.in Scotland. Particular challenges after the referendum campaign. I

:41:50. > :41:54.think we were saying the right things, but sadly too many people in

:41:55. > :42:00.Scotland are not yet willing to listen to that message. We have to

:42:01. > :42:04.use this campaign as the basis of being a strong opposition in the

:42:05. > :42:09.next five years. Not running away from Al manifesto but using it as a

:42:10. > :42:15.basis to form a strong opposition and to challenge the SNP. -- our

:42:16. > :42:19.manifesto. To use the powers we have and to help transform Scotland. Do

:42:20. > :42:22.you think Mr Corbyn spent enough time in Scotland during this

:42:23. > :42:29.campaign? If he didn't, would that have been helpful to you? It was

:42:30. > :42:37.great to have Jeremy Hill in Portobello and in Port Bridge and

:42:38. > :42:41.Glasgow. -- Jeremy here. He is the leader of the UK Labour Party and he

:42:42. > :42:44.is welcome in any part of the UK to campaign for the Labour Party, and

:42:45. > :42:48.we look forward to having him here many more times in future elections,

:42:49. > :42:54.for example the local government elections next year. Thank you for

:42:55. > :42:58.talking to us. In a moment, down to south Wales, but Laura, a quick

:42:59. > :43:02.comment. One of the interesting things about Mr Corbyn, the Labour

:43:03. > :43:06.Party in Scotland did not want him to visit a lot. At the beginning he

:43:07. > :43:11.said he would campaign there every week. He said his policies of

:43:12. > :43:16.fighting austerity would work in Scotland and make a difference. He

:43:17. > :43:20.has not been visible in that campaign, but worth noting that

:43:21. > :43:24.Kezia Dugdale positioned Labour to the left of the SNP in Holyrood,

:43:25. > :43:29.with more Corbyn style policies, even if he wasn't a fun person. It

:43:30. > :43:37.seems at this early stage of the night that that has not paid off. --

:43:38. > :43:40.a front person. In south-west Wales, Haverfordwest, Caroline Evans, our

:43:41. > :43:44.correspondent. Interesting contests for the Welsh Assembly. Talk us

:43:45. > :43:48.through what we are expecting in Haverfordwest.

:43:49. > :44:01.Oh dear, I am sorry, we don't have sound for you at the moment. We will

:44:02. > :44:06.be back in Haverfordwest when we have it. Liam Fox and Emily

:44:07. > :44:13.Thornberry have joined us in the studio. Some more results have come

:44:14. > :44:17.in, so let's get those. Nuneaton and Bedworth, a Labour hold. Nuneaton

:44:18. > :44:23.might ring bells for anybody who was up in 2015. That was the moment

:44:24. > :44:27.where we suddenly started to see how this Conservatives would get that

:44:28. > :44:32.majority, when some of these seats in the West Midlands didn't go

:44:33. > :44:37.towards Labour. At a council Labour level, it has remained a Labour

:44:38. > :44:40.council. Look at what is happening beneath the surface. This is where

:44:41. > :44:46.you start to see the ripples of the night. Labour is down three seats,

:44:47. > :44:50.the Conservatives gaining those. This is an interesting pattern that

:44:51. > :44:55.is coming through that you won't see from the headline. In Havant, near

:44:56. > :45:01.Portsmouth, it is a Conservative hold, a safe seat for the

:45:02. > :45:06.Conservatives, a majority of 24. Once again, beneath the surface,

:45:07. > :45:13.this time, those Labour seats are going to Ukip, so you are seeing

:45:14. > :45:16.Labour losing out to Ukip in the south and Hampshire and losing out

:45:17. > :45:20.to Conservatives in a place like Nuneaton, which was at the centre of

:45:21. > :45:26.the battle last time. A big caveat on this one, with eight more to

:45:27. > :45:33.declare, Thurrock, very tightly fought 3-way marginal in 2015. This

:45:34. > :45:36.isn't a full result, but you can see what is so far an extraordinary

:45:37. > :45:41.night for Ukip. They are in the league in Thurrock. The

:45:42. > :45:47.Conservatives on 13, Labour on 12. -- in the lead. The winning post is

:45:48. > :45:52.35. That could shuffle round in a big way. At the moment, a dramatic

:45:53. > :45:59.picture for those three parties in Thurrock. Ukip are in the lead. That

:46:00. > :46:05.prompts an interesting question to both of our guests. Given the

:46:06. > :46:09.backdrop, of the referendum, we have been trying hard to focus on some

:46:10. > :46:12.very important issues in local elections, Scotland and Wales for

:46:13. > :46:17.the parliaments and the assembly, but lots of canvassers have come

:46:18. > :46:22.back saying, people haven't really wanted to talk about that, they have

:46:23. > :46:28.wanted to talk about the referendum. Is that your experience? We were all

:46:29. > :46:33.under instruction to talk about the Scottish elections in Scotland, the

:46:34. > :46:36.Welsh elections in Wales and yet, wherever I was, people wanted to

:46:37. > :46:40.talk about the referendum, which was inevitable given the short gap in

:46:41. > :46:47.time and tween the two sets of elections. Stephen Kinnock and I

:46:48. > :46:52.were comparing notes and we got the same feeling back from voters. It

:46:53. > :46:56.has been interesting is the way in which the Ukip vote is held up well.

:46:57. > :47:00.I think there is an undercurrent of referendum in all of this. It

:47:01. > :47:05.therefore isn't something you can compare to what was happening in

:47:06. > :47:09.either of the two previous sets of local elections. There is another

:47:10. > :47:13.undercurrent in this one. What is interesting to me is how this will

:47:14. > :47:18.play across. It looks as though Labour losing support to Ukip in the

:47:19. > :47:24.north of England as well. That says there is a section of Labour voters

:47:25. > :47:28.are in play in the referendum. I think it is, with Jeremy Corbyn 's

:47:29. > :47:36.leadership something that hasn't been mentioned is, if the Remain

:47:37. > :47:41.campaign to win, they have to mobilise Labour voters, had a lot of

:47:42. > :47:44.that will depend on Jeremy Corbyn 's credibility, which at best will not

:47:45. > :47:52.be enhanced tonight and at worst will be damaged. What is the

:47:53. > :47:55.Conservative vulnerability? It looks like we are doing well and we are in

:47:56. > :47:59.net gain territory in terms of councillors. Labour and the Lib Dems

:48:00. > :48:05.are both in negative territory so far. Clearly, that is something that

:48:06. > :48:11.will be in play in the referendum. I can feel that undercurrent that

:48:12. > :48:14.people are saying, actually, this is what we want to talk about. There is

:48:15. > :48:19.almost a feeling among voters that, you should be talking about what we

:48:20. > :48:24.want to talk about, not what you want to talk about. I guess we will

:48:25. > :48:31.see that as the night goes on, where that trend takes us. Emily, is that

:48:32. > :48:36.your experience? I hardly agree with anything that Liam has just said.

:48:37. > :48:41.When I talked to people if you weeks ago, they would talk about the

:48:42. > :48:45.referendum and I would say, actually, I am talking about the

:48:46. > :48:50.council, or London or whatever, and they would say, actually, I want to

:48:51. > :48:53.talk about schools, social care, these are bread and butter issues to

:48:54. > :49:00.people. Absolutely they wanted to talk about it. There was much more

:49:01. > :49:04.possibility -- publicity about the referendum so, once people began to

:49:05. > :49:08.realise, they wanted to talk about these things. I think it is far too

:49:09. > :49:15.early to say that Labour is losing out to Ukip or the Tories or what.

:49:16. > :49:17.It is jumping to conclusions. In 2015, it looked like certain trends

:49:18. > :49:25.were being established. Labour were losing votes to Ukip, we were being

:49:26. > :49:28.squeezed by the Tories, the Lib Dem vote was being split between Labour

:49:29. > :49:34.and the Tories. These early results seemed to me to be showing that

:49:35. > :49:37.those trends have stopped and we seem to be getting back to a new

:49:38. > :49:42.baseline, and I think that is important. The result in Nuneaton is

:49:43. > :49:47.very interesting because, if you think about it, in 2015, Nuneaton

:49:48. > :49:52.went Tory, but we have retained control of the council, which is a

:49:53. > :49:57.great result. Even the Spectator said this would be a pivotal result.

:49:58. > :50:03.So, good, a good result for Labour. These are not good results. Hello,

:50:04. > :50:08.you have got a Tory MP in Nuneaton but a Labour council. With a big

:50:09. > :50:12.reduction in the Labour share of votes from last time. It looks like

:50:13. > :50:17.Labour are going to be facing an even worse result tonight in

:50:18. > :50:22.Scotland and at the general election. The nightmare is not over

:50:23. > :50:25.in Scotland. They may well lose control of the Welsh Assembly, too.

:50:26. > :50:29.They are rolling back in many of their heartlands. It is a poor

:50:30. > :50:35.result compared to what they got last time, compared with the same

:50:36. > :50:39.electorate. We are comparing it with a different electorate in 2015. You

:50:40. > :50:45.have to compare like with like. This is not a good result for Labour. On

:50:46. > :50:50.so many of these programmes, you become conditioned a year into

:50:51. > :50:54.government to knowing you will have a dreadful night a year into a

:50:55. > :50:58.government. This is very different from most of the programmes I can

:50:59. > :51:02.remember. One year into a government. This is when the

:51:03. > :51:10.opposition normally make their big gains. We talk about mid term. If

:51:11. > :51:13.the council elections had the same cycle as general elections, I think

:51:14. > :51:17.having these comparisons would make a bit more sense, but actually we

:51:18. > :51:21.are talking about only a year after the general election, not two, and

:51:22. > :51:27.that makes a difference. What happened in 2012 was that Ed had

:51:28. > :51:36.been a leader for a couple of years, we have had the omnishambles budget,

:51:37. > :51:40.we had Leveson, and things are now different. We have a situation with

:51:41. > :51:44.a new leader who hasn't been in power very long and it is too early

:51:45. > :51:49.at this stage to make these sort of comparisons. I think things will be

:51:50. > :51:56.different in a year 's time and that is an essential truth that you can't

:51:57. > :51:59.get round. I need to be pausing. We are going to be back in a few

:52:00. > :52:05.minutes. We are going to catch up with the news.

:52:06. > :52:12.The first results have been declared in local elections in England as

:52:13. > :52:17.counts continue across the UK. There have been elections in Northern

:52:18. > :52:23.Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Ian Watson has the latest. And they are

:52:24. > :52:26.off, counting is underway in many English councils and in elections to

:52:27. > :52:30.the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. Some of the first results

:52:31. > :52:39.were announced in Newcastle. The Labour council leader got

:52:40. > :52:42.an increased majority and the party retained overall control.

:52:43. > :52:45.They also retained control in Wigan and Sunderland.

:52:46. > :52:46.That should be good news for Jeremy Corbyn,

:52:47. > :52:58.but he is under pressure. Early results suggest Labour isn't

:52:59. > :53:02.performing as well at the last time these seeds were contested in 2012

:53:03. > :53:05.but it is doing a bit better than the last general election, and his

:53:06. > :53:11.deputy said it is soon -- too soon to reach a verdict. We end up with a

:53:12. > :53:16.debate about winning 100 seats were losing 100 is good news for Jeremy

:53:17. > :53:20.Corbyn or not, we missed the point. He has only been leader for eight

:53:21. > :53:27.months. We are coming back from a very low base. In Scotland, polls

:53:28. > :53:30.suggest the SNP will retain their overall majority but there is a

:53:31. > :53:34.battle between Labour and the Conservatives second place. The Lib

:53:35. > :53:39.Dems avoided a wipe-out when they retained control of Orkney. Labour

:53:40. > :53:44.are fighting hard to keep control of the Welsh Assembly, where Ukip is

:53:45. > :53:48.hopeful of gaining representation for the first time. The full picture

:53:49. > :53:51.will not be known in Northern Ireland until the weekend and across

:53:52. > :53:53.Britain the Lib Dems are hoping to avoid a repeat of last year 's

:53:54. > :53:58.meltdown. At least 30 people are reported

:53:59. > :54:00.killed in an air strike on a refugee camp in northern Syria.

:54:01. > :54:03.Images on social media showed the aftermath of the attack

:54:04. > :54:06.in Idlib province. It is close to the Turkish border.

:54:07. > :54:09.It isn't clear who carried out the attack.

:54:10. > :54:09.There are unconfirmed reports that Syrian or Russian

:54:10. > :54:16.planes were involved. Talks are set to resume next week

:54:17. > :54:19.to try to resolve the dispute over the junior doctor contract.

:54:20. > :54:23.The Government and British Medical Association agreed in theory to five

:54:24. > :54:26.days of negotiations during which plans to impose

:54:27. > :54:30.the contract and the threat of industrial action

:54:31. > :54:33.would be put on hold. If the talks go ahead,

:54:34. > :54:37.it would be the first time the sides have met in three months.

:54:38. > :54:40.A huge wildfire in the Canadian province of Alberta is raging

:54:41. > :54:44.out of control, fuelled by powerful winds.

:54:45. > :54:47.The wildfire now covers more than 85,000 hectares.

:54:48. > :54:49.80,000 people have been forced to leave their homes

:54:50. > :54:55.in the Fort McMurray area. The Speaker of the US House

:54:56. > :54:56.of Representatives says he cannot support Donald Trump

:54:57. > :55:05.as Republican nominee. He is the highest ranked elected

:55:06. > :55:10.Republican. He says the New York businessman

:55:11. > :55:12.deserves the nomination but he called on him to do more

:55:13. > :55:15.to unite the party. BBC News understands the Ministry

:55:16. > :55:18.of Justice is to take over a troubled young offenders unit

:55:19. > :55:20.in Kent which has been the centre of serious allegations that

:55:21. > :55:21.staff assaulted children. Ministers commissioned

:55:22. > :55:24.an independent investigation into the Medway centre,

:55:25. > :55:34.run by the private company G4S, after undercover filming

:55:35. > :55:46.by the BBC's Panorama. Back now to Election 2016.

:55:47. > :55:52.We are still expecting the bulk of these results from the Scottish

:55:53. > :55:56.Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. We are getting some English local

:55:57. > :56:00.results coming in. Relatively steady, but we really are waiting

:56:01. > :56:05.for our results from Wales and Scotland. I would ask Emily to take

:56:06. > :56:10.us through some of the results in Welsh terms that would be

:56:11. > :56:16.significant. These are the ones I am keeping an eye on. The first,

:56:17. > :56:19.Aberconwy in north Wales, is a 3-way contest. You can see how tightly

:56:20. > :56:25.fought that is between second and third. Labour is inferred by 15

:56:26. > :56:31.votes. This is the Tories' third most marginal seat. Possibly Labour

:56:32. > :56:36.could take this, or Plaid Cymru. In Rhondda, Labour hold it at in a

:56:37. > :56:42.Sluman -- on a small majority. The question here is, can Leanne Wood

:56:43. > :56:47.come through? The Plaid Cymru leader, and they are in yellow now,

:56:48. > :56:54.do not adjust your set, they are in yellow, not green, 30% share to

:56:55. > :56:58.Labour's 63. If Plaid Cymru have a really good night, perhaps they can

:56:59. > :57:03.push Labour out, but it would need a 16% swing. If Leanne Wood doesn't

:57:04. > :57:10.win here, she is on the top list. In the Vale of Cuba -- the Vale of

:57:11. > :57:15.Clwyd, a shock Conservative gain in 2015, set everybody is wondering if

:57:16. > :57:21.the Conservatives can do it again. Labour have 51% to the Tories' 33

:57:22. > :57:25.but, with a majority of 4000, it is possible Tory territory. We know

:57:26. > :57:29.that the Tories have progressed each time in the general election in the

:57:30. > :57:33.last ten years. Will they have another good night tonight? Brecon

:57:34. > :57:40.and Radnor ship, that might ring bells. It is the only Lib Dem

:57:41. > :57:45.constituency seat in Wales, and Kirsty Williams, Lib Dem leader, she

:57:46. > :57:48.is there. She loses this seat, it will be a bad night for the Lib Dems

:57:49. > :57:53.because they will be wiped off the map in Wales, but she and others may

:57:54. > :57:59.well pick up on the regional list. She is not on the regional list.

:58:00. > :58:04.Others may, but if she doesn't win back Brecon and Radnor share, she is

:58:05. > :58:10.out of the assembly. To the other Emily, just talking about the Labour

:58:11. > :58:13.challenge in Wales, in power in 17 years, that presents its own

:58:14. > :58:17.challenges, and we have this prospect of the first Ukip elected

:58:18. > :58:22.members to the National Assembly in Wales. What is your reading of the

:58:23. > :58:27.picture? What is the big challenge for Labour? I think it has been

:58:28. > :58:34.recognised that Ukip are challenging course. I think that is a deep

:58:35. > :58:38.worry. Is interesting how Plaid Cymru, who thought themselves the

:58:39. > :58:43.Welsh SNP, changing their colour to yellow and everything else, and they

:58:44. > :58:47.said they would challenge us, they were the alternative, I don't think

:58:48. > :58:50.that is going to happen. And the Tory surge, which has been talked

:58:51. > :58:56.up, isn't getting anywhere either. But I think there are continuing

:58:57. > :59:00.problems and issues about the increasing vote of Ukip, and that is

:59:01. > :59:04.a challenge for us. Because they are in the seats you have felt for many

:59:05. > :59:12.years. If you look at Torfaen, Merthyr Tydfil, last year, there was

:59:13. > :59:17.a 20% share of the vote for Ukip in Merthyr Tydfil. What accounts for

:59:18. > :59:21.that? Is it that people are very distant -- disillusioned and they

:59:22. > :59:25.don't think Labour have the answers? We need to think about it carefully.

:59:26. > :59:31.It is important that Labour is the voice for Wales, but it needs to

:59:32. > :59:37.listen, too. I think that, when we lose support to Ukip, I think it is

:59:38. > :59:41.a challenge to us and we need to make sure we are listening very

:59:42. > :59:47.carefully to what our electorate is saying and making sure we reflect

:59:48. > :59:50.their views and concerns. And, you know, I think Ukip have capitalised

:59:51. > :59:54.on the fact that they thought there was going to be a surge and they

:59:55. > :00:00.have put some of their bigger names down there on the list, and so... I

:00:01. > :00:04.don't want overplay this. I don't want to exaggerate it, but I think

:00:05. > :00:06.we should not ignore the fact that Ukip are doing better in Wales and I

:00:07. > :00:11.think they should be. I just wonder why you think that

:00:12. > :00:26.these? What is the reason? Whenever a party does well in a

:00:27. > :00:29.particular area for a long time, there can be a tendency for us to

:00:30. > :00:33.assume that people will always vote for a particular party. We need to

:00:34. > :00:36.work with people and listen carefully to what they say. Let's

:00:37. > :00:50.pause there for a second. Welcome back to the BBC Election

:00:51. > :00:55.Centre. We are still waiting for more results from Scotland. As you

:00:56. > :01:04.can see, some results so far. The Lib Dems held onto one seat. The SNP

:01:05. > :01:07.took one seat from Labour. We are looking at the slow trickle of

:01:08. > :01:16.results, hoping and praying that we will get them.

:01:17. > :01:20.Councillors in the English local elections. More results than in

:01:21. > :01:26.Scotland and Wales. Labour have lost four. The

:01:27. > :01:35.Conservatives have gained six. Ukip, so far have gained eight

:01:36. > :01:45.seats. Can I just stress, very early days.

:01:46. > :01:52.More than 2000 council seats were being contested in over 120

:01:53. > :01:58.councils. Quite early days yet. We are going to talk to David Mundell,

:01:59. > :02:02.the Conservative Cabinet Minister, Scottish Secretary, in Dumfries.

:02:03. > :02:09.Thank you for joining us. Your sense of how things are going this

:02:10. > :02:12.morning? I am very positive about the Conservative prospects in

:02:13. > :02:17.Scotland. Ruth Davidson set out at the start of this campaign with a

:02:18. > :02:20.clear objective to become the opposition leader in the Scottish

:02:21. > :02:25.Parliament and I am absolutely sure that we are on course to do that.

:02:26. > :02:30.Ruth has had a very, very good campaign. People have seen she is

:02:31. > :02:33.the one politician in the Scottish Parliament who can go toe-to-toe

:02:34. > :02:38.with Nicola Sturgeon and stand up against calls for a second

:02:39. > :02:42.referendum. And more importantly, I think, hold the SNP government to

:02:43. > :02:46.account if they are re-elected. Make sure there is proper scrutiny. And

:02:47. > :02:51.that they focus on delivering for Scotland, rather than continuing

:02:52. > :02:56.down the constitutional debate. Just to be clear for the viewers, are you

:02:57. > :03:00.saying you expect to be the second biggest party in this new

:03:01. > :03:05.Parliament? I am very confident that we can achieve that goal. Obviously,

:03:06. > :03:11.in Scotland we have a regional list system which pops up the

:03:12. > :03:15.constituency system and it is quite complicated. It is going to take a

:03:16. > :03:21.few hours yet to demonstrate what the outcome is. -- tops up. A lot of

:03:22. > :03:26.the straws in the wind indicate that we are going to do very well in that

:03:27. > :03:30.regional list. For example, our vote has almost doubled in Glasgow, which

:03:31. > :03:37.is a very, very positive result for us. At the same time, Labour are

:03:38. > :03:42.doing very, very poorly. What about in the constituencies? What is your

:03:43. > :03:48.likely to the constituency seats, do you think? A number of counts are

:03:49. > :03:57.going on, like in Dumfries, which are quite simply too close to call.

:03:58. > :03:59.So it's very difficult to come to a conclusion on the individual

:04:00. > :04:04.constituencies. And indeed in terms of the overall total. But our

:04:05. > :04:11.feeling is a positive one. We have fought a positive campaign. Ruth has

:04:12. > :04:15.had an outstanding campaign, demonstrating that she is able to

:04:16. > :04:20.take on this role of holding the SNP to account, speaking up for

:04:21. > :04:24.Scotland's continuing place in the United Kingdom, which is what the

:04:25. > :04:28.people in Scotland voted for in the referendum, and holding the SNP to

:04:29. > :04:33.account, to actually deliver on all of their promises in relation to

:04:34. > :04:37.domestic issues such as schools and hospitals, which so often in

:04:38. > :04:39.Scotland have been forgotten as a constitutional debate has

:04:40. > :04:48.preoccupied Nicola Sturgeon and others. Thank you for joining us.

:04:49. > :04:53.David Mundell, the Scottish Secretary in Dumfries. Very

:04:54. > :04:56.confident, saying he is very hopeful that the Scottish Conservatives will

:04:57. > :05:02.end this election as the second biggest party in Scottish

:05:03. > :05:05.Parliament. Behind the SNP. Pushing Labour into third. That really would

:05:06. > :05:13.be a very, very dramatic outcome if that happens. Let's join Jeremy.

:05:14. > :05:23.We are now seeing the 2016 council results, the map being coloured in

:05:24. > :05:29.as you would expect. Red councils staying red. Blue councils staying

:05:30. > :05:34.blue for the most part. Worth underlining the power of the Labour

:05:35. > :05:41.vote in areas around Liverpool, where the council 's comeback Labour

:05:42. > :05:47.even in bad times for the party. In the Midlands and the South, a

:05:48. > :05:52.different story. On general election night in 2015, a lot of drama around

:05:53. > :06:00.the Nuneaton results. Nuneaton Council has come back. Labour. That

:06:01. > :06:02.is good for Labour. The key moment of the general election results

:06:03. > :06:07.programme in the middle of the night was when it did not go as expected

:06:08. > :06:09.from Conservative to Labour. That is the kind of result Labour wants to

:06:10. > :06:20.see tonight. We will have a look at the key wards

:06:21. > :06:28.exercise. 800-900 key wards that we look at to try and get a measure of

:06:29. > :06:32.the result. After 200-300 are in, we talked about Labour, but what about

:06:33. > :06:38.the other two main parties as we have traditionally called them?

:06:39. > :06:43.This is a comparison with the general election year. The

:06:44. > :06:47.Conservatives, down 2% on the general election. They won the

:06:48. > :06:52.election but they only got an overall majority figure of 326 seats

:06:53. > :06:56.in the House of Commons. If they go below, they have less power in the

:06:57. > :07:01.next election, maybe they fall below it and get into all kinds of

:07:02. > :07:06.interesting problems. The Lib Dems, up 4% on 2015. Worth pointing out

:07:07. > :07:12.that 2015 was an absolute shocker for the Lib Dems by any manner of

:07:13. > :07:17.describing it. So up a bit. That is useful. What about the 2012

:07:18. > :07:22.comparison? The year that the council seats were last fought.

:07:23. > :07:28.Labour are down. The Conservatives were in the low 30s in 2012 and they

:07:29. > :07:32.are roughly there at the moment, not shifting. Not a lot to write home

:07:33. > :07:39.about for the Conservatives. The Lib Dems were not being fully polished

:07:40. > :07:44.in 2012 for the coalition, so they are just down 1%. -- fully punished.

:07:45. > :07:49.Not a lot for people to celebrate, really.

:07:50. > :08:00.Wondering if Emily has more results. Labour quietly celebrating in

:08:01. > :08:04.Harlow. Key swing territory. The Conservatives have it at a

:08:05. > :08:06.Westminster level, but a good result for Labour here tonight. The winning

:08:07. > :08:18.post was 17, so they have done it. Slightly bizarre when you look at

:08:19. > :08:22.the seat changes, no movement at all, but that is good in Labour

:08:23. > :08:27.terms. The Tories might have expected to move forward, they

:08:28. > :08:31.haven't. It remains Labour. A curious story in Bury. I showed you

:08:32. > :08:38.this a while ago and I was looking in particular at the seat change.

:08:39. > :08:44.Labour lost three. We understand that one of these seats is a ward

:08:45. > :08:48.with a very high Jewish population. The question people are starting to

:08:49. > :08:52.ask now, is it the Ken Livingstone effect? Is it having an impact

:08:53. > :08:56.outside of London? One of the highest numbers of Jewish people

:08:57. > :09:00.outside of London. That might be coming into play in Bury, which

:09:01. > :09:05.would explain the result would need the waters, as it were, if not the

:09:06. > :09:12.headline. I showed you thorough a while ago, three still to declare.

:09:13. > :09:19.It remains hung. But Ukip are the largest party of this hung council,

:09:20. > :09:27.on 17. Labour and the Conservatives, neck and neck. So a very good night

:09:28. > :09:35.in Thurrock for Ukip. In terms of the seat changes, they have taken

:09:36. > :09:38.seats from Labour. Ukip up five, Labour down four, a key three-way

:09:39. > :09:46.marginal that was so closely fought in 2015. The Ukip effect in

:09:47. > :09:53.Thurrock. A bit of a mixed picture. It is a mixed picture...

:09:54. > :10:01.It is a good result, let's say it as it is. I am really pleased about it.

:10:02. > :10:06.I was also thinking again a bit more of what we were talking about

:10:07. > :10:12.earlier on, about whether the baseline should be 2012 or the

:10:13. > :10:16.election of 2015. I said how well Labour were doing in 2012. What is

:10:17. > :10:21.interesting is the other side of the coin. Labour were doing really well

:10:22. > :10:26.in 2012 in the council elections, and the Tories were doing really

:10:27. > :10:31.badly. All these years on, the Tories are not doing any better. Why

:10:32. > :10:36.not turn it on its head and say 2012 was a bad year for the Tories, why

:10:37. > :10:41.are they not doing much better now? Tonight always seems to be about

:10:42. > :10:44.Labour. Should Labour be defending themselves here? What is their

:10:45. > :10:49.answer there? Let's turn it on its head and said the Tories were doing

:10:50. > :10:54.really badly in 2012, why are they not doing better now? Just pausing

:10:55. > :11:02.for a second, we are joined from Bridgend by the leader from Wales,

:11:03. > :11:10.Carwyn Jones. How do things seem to you in Bridgend? What is your own

:11:11. > :11:13.place looking like? I am happy here. It is not hugely different to what

:11:14. > :11:16.happened five years ago from what I have seen, but we will have to wait

:11:17. > :11:21.and see the results at the end of the day. A developing picture as the

:11:22. > :11:26.night goes on but nobody knows the final outcome until we know the

:11:27. > :11:28.final count. What is your sense of Labour's performance in Wales from

:11:29. > :11:36.what your colleagues are telling you? We worked very hard today

:11:37. > :11:40.getting the Labour vote out. It seems to have come out. Early days

:11:41. > :11:45.of course still, we will have to wait and see whether the improvement

:11:46. > :11:53.and the improved turnout leads to a situation where we can get a similar

:11:54. > :11:56.results to 2011. That will be hard because 2011 was a high watermark

:11:57. > :12:04.for us. Let's wait and see the final results. We have been talking about

:12:05. > :12:07.how Ukip have done in some of the English local authorities. What is

:12:08. > :12:11.your sense in this campaign of the kind of threat that Ukip might pose

:12:12. > :12:19.to Labour in some of its traditional areas including Merthyr and Torfaen?

:12:20. > :12:24.We are not worried about Ukip being a threat directly. It is about

:12:25. > :12:28.whether they let the Tories in, for example. They will get seats, it is

:12:29. > :12:32.difficult for them not to, given the electoral system we have. The big

:12:33. > :12:35.challenge will be to see if they can work with each other as a party,

:12:36. > :12:38.because they have done nothing but fight with each other in the last

:12:39. > :12:43.few weeks. They will have to show the people of Wales that they can

:12:44. > :12:46.work coherently as a political party, working for people as well.

:12:47. > :12:52.How confident are you that you will be in government in Wales on your

:12:53. > :12:58.own back in the next five years, not depending on other people? We know

:12:59. > :13:02.the electoral system in Wales doesn't deliver majorities. There

:13:03. > :13:07.has never been one for any party. Everything is always on a knife

:13:08. > :13:11.edge. We had two with a majority of double figures, it is not a night

:13:12. > :13:17.for fake hearts and let's see what the results show. -- fainthearts. A

:13:18. > :13:27.declaration from Hamilton. Returning officer for the Scottish

:13:28. > :13:37.Parliamentary elections in Hamilton and Stonehouse, I hereby give notice

:13:38. > :13:47.of the following. The electorate is 57662. The total votes cast, 28995.

:13:48. > :13:50.The percentage is there for 50.3%. The total number of votes for each

:13:51. > :14:03.candidate at the election was as follows. Eileen Baxendale, Scottish

:14:04. > :14:12.Liberal Democrats, 836. Margaret McCulloch, Scottish Labour Party,

:14:13. > :14:29.8508. Christina McHale be, Scottish National Party, 13944.

:14:30. > :14:46.Margaret Mitchell, Scottish Conservative and Unionist party,

:14:47. > :14:51.5000 596. 110 ballot papers were rejected. Christina McKelvie is

:14:52. > :15:00.elected to serve in the Scottish parliament as a member for the

:15:01. > :15:06.Hamilton and local constituency. So the SNP holding on to Hamilton

:15:07. > :15:12.and Larkhall, with Christina McKelvie, first selected as a list

:15:13. > :15:18.of member in 2007, Labour in second place, a majority of 5500, turnout

:15:19. > :15:21.of 50%, a fraction down on the overall Scottish turnout for the

:15:22. > :15:31.last Parliamentary elections. Let's look at the vote share. Especially

:15:32. > :15:35.to the Labour's share. 48% SNP, 29% Labour, 19% Conservatives. Let's

:15:36. > :15:44.look at the change. Labour were down 10%. That is the pattern in Hamilton

:15:45. > :15:47.and Larkhall. This is a seat on the SNP have held onto. The

:15:48. > :15:51.Conservatives adding 9%, so there may be a signal their what the

:15:52. > :15:58.Scottish Secretary telling us, that there was a certain upturn in the

:15:59. > :16:02.Conservative vote in lots of seats. In terms of swing, that tells us

:16:03. > :16:07.there has been a swing from Labour to the SNP of 5%. We saw a bigger

:16:08. > :16:16.swing earlier when they took Rutherglen. Underneath that swing is

:16:17. > :16:22.the Labour to Tory swing, which will determine second place in the

:16:23. > :16:26.national contest. That swing was 9%. If that was replicated elsewhere in

:16:27. > :16:31.Scotland in seats like that, that would put Labour and the Tories neck

:16:32. > :16:35.and neck in the battle for second place. It was striking earring David

:16:36. > :16:40.Mundell, the Scottish Secretary of State, sounding really confident

:16:41. > :16:44.that the Conservatives were going to end up in second place in Scotland,

:16:45. > :16:48.beating Labour. Let's not underestimate how much of a big deal

:16:49. > :16:52.that would be. Unthinkable if you months ago. That would be a very big

:16:53. > :17:00.challenge to the Labour Party indeed. That would be significant,

:17:01. > :17:05.and I grew up close to that seat. For a long time, that was a Labour

:17:06. > :17:09.fiefdom. They were unchallengeable. They have gone from a rock-solid

:17:10. > :17:15.safe position to now having the haemorrhage as the second party with

:17:16. > :17:19.the Conservatives coming up. Ruth Davidson will be pleased to see that

:17:20. > :17:23.happen. It is too early to say whether that takes the Conservatives

:17:24. > :17:28.over the line, but it makes clear there is a continuing crisis of

:17:29. > :17:32.identity for the Labour Party in Scotland. I think many of them

:17:33. > :17:36.thought this would be an upswing from the disastrous general election

:17:37. > :17:40.but it looks as though they are continuing to roll back. Emily, what

:17:41. > :17:46.for you is the challenge for Labour in Scotland than what we are now

:17:47. > :17:51.seeing? Nobody can pretend we haven't been having a very difficult

:17:52. > :17:55.time in Scotland. After the referendum and the general election,

:17:56. > :18:01.when we lost all of our seat bar one, that is the trend that we had

:18:02. > :18:04.to bear in mind. I don't think anybody was seriously expecting us

:18:05. > :18:08.to increase our number of seats in the Scottish parliament. These

:18:09. > :18:15.trends need to play out. It is very hard. There are positives to take

:18:16. > :18:21.away from it. We have a wonderful new leader of the Scottish Labour

:18:22. > :18:28.Party, who is punchy, who is a really good leader. I think that's a

:18:29. > :18:31.great deal of work needs to be done. I was watching your programme

:18:32. > :18:35.earlier and I think that people in Scotland very much identify the

:18:36. > :18:41.Labour Party with the Scottish Labour Party and the leadership she

:18:42. > :18:47.has been showing, but I think we have been subjected to, I think your

:18:48. > :18:51.words were, what was it, I can't remember, some kind of digging

:18:52. > :18:58.machine. A steam roller rolling over everyone. And that continues to play

:18:59. > :19:04.out in Scotland. There will come a time, but clearly not tonight. We

:19:05. > :19:10.need to be able to fight back and be the voice of people in Scotland once

:19:11. > :19:15.more. Their candidates, one speaking tonight, the former Labour MP Thomas

:19:16. > :19:21.Docherty, saying this has also been about Jeremy Corbyn, who promised he

:19:22. > :19:25.could reverse that trend. He said, let's be clear, Jeremy Corbyn has

:19:26. > :19:31.played very badly in parts of Scotland. He is unambiguously

:19:32. > :19:36.socialist platform was part of the problem. Given that Jeremy Corbyn

:19:37. > :19:39.remiss to get back some of that support in Scotland, it is also

:19:40. > :19:45.partly his failure, if we see more of these results? You are saying

:19:46. > :19:51.both things at the same time. Earlier, but I think that is right,

:19:52. > :19:54.this is a true reflection of the way Scottish elections are going, in

:19:55. > :19:59.that it was very much led by the Scottish Labour Party. They had

:20:00. > :20:04.strong lines which were very much speaking to Scottish people. I

:20:05. > :20:08.personally think she is right to say what she was saying, which is that

:20:09. > :20:12.education standards are falling in Scotland, they need to raise taxes

:20:13. > :20:18.in Scotland to invest money into education. Absolutely right. It is

:20:19. > :20:23.being played out in Scotland but the truth is the SNP now have nowhere to

:20:24. > :20:26.hide. They are the establishment, they are the power. If things go

:20:27. > :20:30.wrong, it is their fault. They can no longer complain they don't have

:20:31. > :20:37.sufficient powers. And now it is up to them. We are in a position to

:20:38. > :20:41.fight back. So, acknowledging the Labour challenge in Scotland, I am

:20:42. > :20:46.just wondering how you are doing in some of these local authorities.

:20:47. > :20:50.Exeter, an important contest in the English local authorities. My

:20:51. > :20:55.colleague Martin Oates is there, political editor of BBC south-west.

:20:56. > :21:01.What is your sense of how it is going? I am being told by senior

:21:02. > :21:06.Labour sources that they are relieved and they think they have

:21:07. > :21:10.managed to hold their own in some of the marginal wards against the

:21:11. > :21:15.Conservatives. A bit of background, Exeter is Labour's last great

:21:16. > :21:20.stronghold in the south-west. A year ago, against the backdrop of

:21:21. > :21:26.Labour's very poor performers nationally, Ben Bradshaw, the city

:21:27. > :21:29.MP, trebled his majority. They added Exeter members to Exeter City

:21:30. > :21:33.Council. They are in control of the council at the moment. If they are

:21:34. > :21:38.doing well in this election, all of that in theory sounds like good news

:21:39. > :21:43.for the leadership in London. The twist is that Ben Bradshaw makes it

:21:44. > :21:47.quite clear that he thinks there is a recipe they have got in Exeter

:21:48. > :21:51.that could be the key to Labour succeeding in the south of England,

:21:52. > :21:58.we gaining seats. He is also clear, and he has been play again tonight,

:21:59. > :22:02.that is not a recipe that tallies with the direction the party is

:22:03. > :22:07.pursuing under Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you for that update. I am sure that

:22:08. > :22:12.Emily will respond in a second. I want to have another go at talking

:22:13. > :22:21.to my colleague Caroline Evans in Haverfordwest. Can you hear me this

:22:22. > :22:26.time? I can hear you. Very good. I would like from you a sense of what

:22:27. > :22:32.is at stake in west Wales and the constituencies you are covering.

:22:33. > :22:37.What are we expecting? Right now, we are still verifying the vote. It is

:22:38. > :22:40.still quite early for us. We are expecting to hear about turnout

:22:41. > :22:44.about 2am. I think they are running a bit late on that. As Plaid Cymru

:22:45. > :22:51.were saying to be a bit earlier, turnout here is crucial, cause, and

:22:52. > :22:55.worst --, in west is a 3-way marginal. It is being held by the

:22:56. > :23:06.Conservatives but last time Labour were in second place, with Plaid

:23:07. > :23:11.Cymru in third. Each of those three parties think they are in with a

:23:12. > :23:14.chance of grabbing bad. But Ukip are standing here. We don't know what

:23:15. > :23:19.effect that will have on the constituency vote. There is also a

:23:20. > :23:24.local story, the long-running campaign to save services at the

:23:25. > :23:30.hospital here. There is a party standing on that platform,

:23:31. > :23:34.specifically to save the hospital. It will be very interesting to see

:23:35. > :23:40.what effect that has and where they take the votes from. Any sense of

:23:41. > :23:45.timing is? I know some of these Welsh seats can be, let's just say,

:23:46. > :23:48.notoriously slow, because they will say they have got lots of

:23:49. > :23:53.challenges, but any sense of timing is? They certainly seem to have

:23:54. > :23:59.missed their first deadline. The returning officer was saying he

:24:00. > :24:04.hoped to have turnout about 2am. That has passed us by. The results

:24:05. > :24:08.themselves possibly around 6am was the guest. I have to tell you that,

:24:09. > :24:15.from early on tonight, I did hear the word recount murmured in the

:24:16. > :24:21.room. What a surprise, eight? If that happens, at least it add some

:24:22. > :24:26.excitement. More results coming in. I would like a bit of a scorecard.

:24:27. > :24:32.The big picture in England so far. Early days, 44 are in. What is

:24:33. > :24:38.fascinating in our terms is that nothing has changed hands. Labour

:24:39. > :24:44.has got 24, the Conservatives on 13. We haven't got into the Lib Dem

:24:45. > :24:48.areas in terms of results yet. No Ukip, Green or independent. Those

:24:49. > :24:53.seven councils in no overall control. Nothing has been gained or

:24:54. > :24:57.lost, which is why I want to show you what is happening on the

:24:58. > :25:02.surface, because that is where the picture becomes clearer. In

:25:03. > :25:07.Tamworth, the question we started asking is, will be Conservatives

:25:08. > :25:11.hold on? If they had lost three, that would have been no overall

:25:12. > :25:16.control. Interestingly, the bridge overnight has been gained for the

:25:17. > :25:20.Conservatives and Ukip at the expense of the labour. -- the

:25:21. > :25:27.picture overnight. That isn't going on. -- that is all going on.

:25:28. > :25:32.Hartlepool, a different picture entirely. Labour are holding on 21.

:25:33. > :25:39.Let me show you this seat changed again. Labour are down by two, Ukip

:25:40. > :25:44.up by three. They did well in this part of the world in 2015. We were

:25:45. > :25:50.looking to see what was happening there. They have taken stuff there.

:25:51. > :25:56.One more, one more, which is Weymouth. I have put this up because

:25:57. > :26:01.it is one of those extraordinary places where it has been a hung

:26:02. > :26:08.council for 35 years. It has never really had a history of either main

:26:09. > :26:12.party dominating. The biggest party tonight is the Conservatives on 14,

:26:13. > :26:19.Labour on 12. Very little seat change. This carries on, perhaps

:26:20. > :26:26.another 35 years lie ahead of a hung council. I would like to maybe have

:26:27. > :26:30.a look at some of these counts. We are chatting in the studio and

:26:31. > :26:35.wondering why they are being rather slow in some cases. Let's see what

:26:36. > :26:43.we have got coming up. Wrexham, let's have a look at Wrexham. Maybe

:26:44. > :26:46.ten minutes for Wrexham. This is in north-east Wales, traditionally very

:26:47. > :26:50.strong Labour territory. Ukip have been increasing their performance in

:26:51. > :26:58.the last few years. That will be interesting. Shetland. No, OK. That

:26:59. > :27:04.is looking a bit more promising, isn't it? They have clearly stopped.

:27:05. > :27:09.There are lots of arms folded on tables, which is always a good sign.

:27:10. > :27:15.The boxes are empty. Well, that is very promising. They have circled

:27:16. > :27:20.around the returning officer. I am getting very excited. Is this

:27:21. > :27:22.Sheffield? Sheffield is going to be quite busy, because they have a

:27:23. > :27:28.Parliamentary by-election as well. There are two Parliamentary

:27:29. > :27:31.by-elections, one in Ogmore in south Wales and one in Sheffield

:27:32. > :27:35.Brightside. We will be following of course the results of the local

:27:36. > :27:41.authority and Parliamentary by-election. Hang on, what was going

:27:42. > :27:47.on in Sheffield? Let's look at that again. The result for the Kills

:27:48. > :27:54.brand Brightside constituency. Good candidates who wish to join me join

:27:55. > :27:59.me on the stage. -- for the Hillsborough Brightside

:28:00. > :28:05.constituency. Laura, on this Parliamentary by-election, after the

:28:06. > :28:16.death of the sitting Labour MP, his widow is standing, Jill Furniss.

:28:17. > :28:22.Indeed, and it would be astonishing if she did not win this seat. One of

:28:23. > :28:27.the particular issues that has been part of the campaign and the ongoing

:28:28. > :28:31.debate is over government inaction over the steel industry. It would be

:28:32. > :28:35.very surprising for Labour and hugely disappointing if they don't

:28:36. > :28:40.take this seat. It may well be in Sheffield tomorrow that Jeremy

:28:41. > :28:46.Corbyn pops up to try and claim some share of the victory, if that

:28:47. > :28:51.happens. A local councillor for a long time and a local health worker

:28:52. > :28:56.and a daughter of a steelworker, so it is very much in her blood. The

:28:57. > :29:00.steel industry, and they have been fighting a big campaign about it

:29:01. > :29:05.highlighting government inaction. Now that they have repaired the

:29:06. > :29:11.backdrop, I think we are going to get the announcement. This result

:29:12. > :29:14.will be declared by the Lord Mayor of Sheffield in his role as

:29:15. > :29:24.returning officer for the Parliamentary election. I will hand

:29:25. > :29:32.over to the Lord Mayor. I, being the returning officer of the election

:29:33. > :29:37.held on Thursday 5th of May 2016, do hereby give notice that the number

:29:38. > :29:40.of votes cast for each candidate at the election is as follows. Jill

:29:41. > :29:57.Furniss, Labour Party, 14087. Christine Gilligan, Green party,

:29:58. > :30:08.938. Chef at Mohammed, Liberal Democrats,

:30:09. > :31:18.1385. I hereby declare that Gill Furniss

:31:19. > :31:22.has been duly elected. Let's wait for a second, Gill Furniss me say a

:31:23. > :31:30.few words. Lots of other results coming in. A win for Labour 's Gill

:31:31. > :31:40.Furniss on a very low turnout of 33%. Thank you, everybody. Tonight,

:31:41. > :31:44.the people of Sheffield is and Hillsborough have sent David Cameron

:31:45. > :31:48.an emphatic message. This Decameron, we have had enough of your uncaring

:31:49. > :31:54.government. We have had enough of your Tory government's cuts which

:31:55. > :32:01.have hit communities like ours in Sheffield so much more than affluent

:32:02. > :32:06.areas. -- Mr Cameron. The newly elected member in Sheffield the with

:32:07. > :32:10.a message for voters after winning the Parliamentary by-election, one

:32:11. > :32:13.of two taking Place tonight. The other is in south Wales. A result

:32:14. > :32:24.from Shetland. The constituency returning officer

:32:25. > :32:31.for the Shetland Islands, I declare that the total number of votes cast

:32:32. > :32:39.across the constituency was 087. The percentage turnout was 62.3%. --

:32:40. > :32:42.11000 and 87. Total ballot papers rejected, 46. The total votes given

:32:43. > :32:49.to each candidate was as follows. Robina Barton, Scottish Labour

:32:50. > :33:06.Party, 651. Tavish Scott, Scottish Liberal

:33:07. > :33:24.Democrats, 7440. Cameron Smith, Scottish Conservative

:33:25. > :33:52.and Unionist party, 405. Therefore, I give public notice that

:33:53. > :33:55.Tavish Scott has been duly elected as a member of the Scottish

:33:56. > :34:00.Parliament for the as a member of the Scottish

:34:01. > :34:04.constituency. There we have it, the as a member of the Scottish

:34:05. > :34:07.result for Shetland, Tavish Scott, a former leader of the Scottish Lib

:34:08. > :34:11.Dems. He stepped down following the poor results in 2011. He is back as

:34:12. > :34:24.the Lib Dem MP in Shetland. The SNP were a distant second.

:34:25. > :34:33.Turnout of 62%, a high turnout, as we saw in Orkney.

:34:34. > :34:41.Another contest where there was a big Independent presence last time.

:34:42. > :34:51.That has now disappeared. We can see what it has done to the share.

:34:52. > :35:03.A swing from SNP to the Lib Dems of 4.4%. It reflects the fact that last

:35:04. > :35:07.time there was a strong independent performance in this election. Orkney

:35:08. > :35:12.and Shetland. Just to underline, the Lib Dems have hung on to those two

:35:13. > :35:17.constituencies. There was a time in the past few weeks when people were

:35:18. > :35:21.looking at the prospect of the SNP taking every single constituency in

:35:22. > :35:26.Scotland. When I put that point to Alex Salmond earlier, he said, gosh,

:35:27. > :35:31.nonsense, utterly unrealistic. But some people were raising that

:35:32. > :35:35.prospect, there is no denying that. At this point, the Lib Dems, to

:35:36. > :35:40.their great relief, hanging on to Orkney and Shetland. I have been

:35:41. > :35:46.joined by Lord McConnell, the former First Minister of Scotland. And the

:35:47. > :35:52.Conservative Minister Brandon Lewis. Good to see you both. Plenty to talk

:35:53. > :35:57.about. Hang on for a second, Jeremy will add a few more things.

:35:58. > :36:08.Looking at that result in the very north of Scotland. The map as it was

:36:09. > :36:16.in 2011, a wash of SNP yellow. A dramatic result. Asking whether it

:36:17. > :36:22.would be more dramatic tonight. But of the 73 constituencies, we don't

:36:23. > :36:26.have many in. Orkney and Shetland, returned for the Liberal Democrats.

:36:27. > :36:31.Their two constituencies, they have won them back. Local reasons why the

:36:32. > :36:36.Lib Dem vote has handsomely increased. We might come to that.

:36:37. > :36:45.Looking at the two which have gone yellow. One is an SNP hold,

:36:46. > :36:50.Hamilton. The other, Rutherglen, an SNP gain. In Hamilton, if the swing

:36:51. > :36:54.from Labour to the Conservatives were to be replicated throughout

:36:55. > :36:59.Scotland, the Conservatives would jump over Labour into second in

:37:00. > :37:04.these elections. First for the SNP does not look frightened from

:37:05. > :37:11.anything we have seen. Rutherglen is a gain. -- does not look threatened.

:37:12. > :37:19.Starting with the most vulnerable, East Lothian, held by Labour.

:37:20. > :37:22.Galloway and Ayr, held by the Conservatives, a bit less

:37:23. > :37:26.vulnerable. Down to the end, Shetland was the hardest to get, and

:37:27. > :37:30.they have failed to win that. We will see if it goes through logical

:37:31. > :37:36.order. Politics is rarely logical, is it?

:37:37. > :37:45.Not much in. Shetland and Orkney, staying Lib Dem. Rutherglen, not

:37:46. > :37:49.even on the first board, it is about number 11 or 12. So to reach into

:37:50. > :37:53.Rutherglen and when it from Labour, quite an achievement for the SNP

:37:54. > :38:00.given that in 2011 they did very well anyway, with 46% of the vote.

:38:01. > :38:04.The constituency shares, based only on those we have seen so far. These

:38:05. > :38:12.figures will change throughout the night, but they show how handsomely

:38:13. > :38:17.the SNP are doing. 41%. Labour 25%. Just on the result is that we know.

:38:18. > :38:21.The Lib Dems, 21%, I hate to say it again but they will be flattered by

:38:22. > :38:25.the results from the islands, for the reasons mentioned, with

:38:26. > :38:32.independent candidates not standing. The Conservatives on 12%. Now the

:38:33. > :38:39.change from 2011, the more relevant figure, the direction of travel for

:38:40. > :38:45.the parties. The SNP up 4%, and 2011 was a good result in itself. Labour

:38:46. > :38:49.had a bad result in 2011, it's getting worse. We will see if this

:38:50. > :38:56.continues. Update percent for the Lib Dems, again that may come down

:38:57. > :39:02.as other constituencies come in. -- up 8%. The Conservatives up 4% on

:39:03. > :39:03.2011. So you might think the Conservatives are in with a good

:39:04. > :39:13.shout of coming second. Before chatting to my guests, I'd

:39:14. > :39:17.like to talk to my colleague Patrick Burns in Birmingham. He can bring us

:39:18. > :39:21.up-to-date with the local elections there in a crucial area of the

:39:22. > :39:25.Midlands, where there are so many marginal seats looking ahead to the

:39:26. > :39:31.next election. What does it look like at this stage? You are

:39:32. > :39:35.absolutely right, Huw, this is traditionally a region which is so

:39:36. > :39:41.much more of a 2-party seesaw than most other parts of the country.

:39:42. > :39:46.Very much a traditional Tory- Labour battle. Here, in Birmingham, the

:39:47. > :39:52.mood among Labour activists has actually lifted significantly as the

:39:53. > :39:56.evening has worn on. Not just that symbolic retention of control down

:39:57. > :40:01.the road in Nuneaton, which bearing in mind you were talking about that

:40:02. > :40:06.really influential early declaring result from Nuneaton and Bedworth 12

:40:07. > :40:12.months ago in the general election, setting the tone for David Cameron's

:40:13. > :40:14.return to Downing Street... Complete puzzlement, I think, for

:40:15. > :40:19.Conservative strategists that they only have three councillors. Labour

:40:20. > :40:25.have retained control so comfortably without even breaking sweat. In

:40:26. > :40:30.Birmingham, in terms of seats won and lost, actually Labour have made

:40:31. > :40:34.a gain from the Conservatives. Generally, yes, their share of the

:40:35. > :40:39.vote is down a bit, but as they are saying to me, in terms of seats won

:40:40. > :40:44.and lost, this is not the threatened catastrophe. If you go to Walsall,

:40:45. > :40:50.for example, one of those knife edge places in the Black Country, where

:40:51. > :40:55.until tonight we had a Conservative minority administration, even though

:40:56. > :41:00.Labour had more seats... The Conservatives supported by Ukip and

:41:01. > :41:04.independent councillors. Well, the Conservative leader there has told

:41:05. > :41:08.the BBC he expects no longer to be the council leader after this.

:41:09. > :41:11.Talking to some of the Labour activists in this room tonight,

:41:12. > :41:17.echoing some of the sentiments we heard from Sheffield. Maybe the

:41:18. > :41:22.anti-austerity agenda of Jeremy Corbyn is actually gaining some

:41:23. > :41:26.traction. Maybe some of the threatened rhetoric against him by

:41:27. > :41:32.some sections of the party, well, we may start seeing a rowing back from

:41:33. > :41:35.that in the morning. A final thought, you were talking about the

:41:36. > :41:39.relative slowness with which results are coming in. Here, one of the

:41:40. > :41:50.reasons for that is the jewel validation process, with votes cast

:41:51. > :41:55.in the Police and Crime Commissioner being counted tonight, and that is

:41:56. > :42:12.slowing down the election counting. Another result.

:42:13. > :42:20.I do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each

:42:21. > :42:44.candidate at this election is as follows.

:42:45. > :42:56.Wales Green party, five to seven. -- 527. Michelle Brown, UK Independence

:42:57. > :43:06.Party, 3765. Mike Gibbs, Welsh Conservative

:43:07. > :43:22.Party, 4558. Jackie Hirst, Plaid Cymru, the party

:43:23. > :43:33.of Wales, 1944. Carl Sargeant, Welsh Labour, 99 to

:43:34. > :43:58.two. -- 9000 922. And finally, Peter Williams, Welsh

:43:59. > :44:11.Liberal Democrats, 980. The number of ballot papers

:44:12. > :44:28.rejected, 142. Carl Sargeant has been a Minister

:44:29. > :44:32.with Carwyn Jones, natural resources Minister, former Chief Whip, very

:44:33. > :44:37.experienced politician. Back in for Labour. The Conservatives in second,

:44:38. > :44:43.Ukip in third. A turnout of 35%, down on the average for the Welsh

:44:44. > :44:53.Assembly last time. I wanted to look at the share.

:44:54. > :44:59.I just want to be careful with the change, because Ukip were not

:45:00. > :45:05.standing in Welsh constituencies last time, so that 17% looks very

:45:06. > :45:11.impressive but it is actually just responding to this vote today. A

:45:12. > :45:16.very interesting result, Labour holding on. Interesting that Ukip

:45:17. > :45:22.got into third. The Conservatives will be pleased they kept second.

:45:23. > :45:28.A very, very significant result for the Scottish Parliament, which has

:45:29. > :45:30.caused a lot of surprise. Just having a look at it and

:45:31. > :45:38.double-checking. We didn't see this coming. A

:45:39. > :45:47.stunning victory for the Conservatives in Scotland. They have

:45:48. > :45:52.taken Eastwood from Labour, the same boundary area where Jim Murphy lost

:45:53. > :45:57.his seat to the SNP. We thought it would be an SNP- Labour battle, but

:45:58. > :46:04.the Conservatives have taken it on a majority of 1611. SNP second, Labour

:46:05. > :46:08.third. If you want to know how that happened, this is the arrangement of

:46:09. > :46:14.the voting overnight. Labour down nine, the SNP making gains, Labour

:46:15. > :46:18.is falling faster and the Conservatives have come in and taken

:46:19. > :46:25.it from Labour's hands. I imagine we won't be seeing this swing very much

:46:26. > :46:30.in Scotland tonight, but this is a great result for the Conservatives.

:46:31. > :46:34.5.7% swing from Labour to the Conservatives on a turnout which

:46:35. > :46:39.looks to be pretty high. We will be able to compare some of those.

:46:40. > :46:44.Greenock and Inverclyde, an SNP gained from Labour, not much of a

:46:45. > :46:50.surprise. Stuart McMillan the winner for the SNP. He is currently on the

:46:51. > :46:55.list, so he will already be in the parliament. 54% for the SNP, Labour

:46:56. > :47:00.on 28. Again, look at the patterns. The Conservatives are rising, Labour

:47:01. > :47:09.seeing a massive fall in its share of the vote in Greenock, down 16%.

:47:10. > :47:16.This time the swing is from Labour to the SNP, 14%, a healthy swing for

:47:17. > :47:19.the SNP, moving into 2015 territory. With these two results, the

:47:20. > :47:23.Conservatives might just start seeing themselves in a place where

:47:24. > :47:29.they could come second in Scotland. Interesting. Not something anybody

:47:30. > :47:35.would have judged possible not long ago and it is a real sign of that

:47:36. > :47:38.collapse of Labour in Scotland, as we have seen elsewhere, despite

:47:39. > :47:42.Jeremy Corbyn being outlined as the answer to the problem in Scotland.

:47:43. > :47:47.That clearly isn't the case. We said we wanted to fight a hard campaign.

:47:48. > :47:52.We have a great team in Scotland. The benefit of that hard work are

:47:53. > :47:57.showing through. Jack, we saw that coming in. We hadn't seen that

:47:58. > :48:03.coming. How did you read it? What is clearly happened in Eastwood is the

:48:04. > :48:07.switch between Labour and the SNP has allowed the Conservatives, who

:48:08. > :48:13.were roughly in the same position last time, to come through the

:48:14. > :48:17.middle. And he has been an MSP on the regional list for Scotland for a

:48:18. > :48:22.long time, a hard-working local candidate. I'm disappointed for our

:48:23. > :48:27.guy, Ken Macintosh, but surprised at the outcome, because the result last

:48:28. > :48:33.year, the SNP had such a big majority over Jim Murphy. Looking at

:48:34. > :48:35.the figures, maybe not surprising considering the Conservatives did

:48:36. > :48:43.well last time and he has held his position. It may be part of the mix,

:48:44. > :48:46.and we can't get into voters' minds, it is a wealthy suburb outside

:48:47. > :48:53.Glasgow and it has Scotland's biggest Jewish population. This may

:48:54. > :48:55.be another sign that the controversy in the last couple of weeks over

:48:56. > :49:01.what has been happening in the Labour Party, Ken Livingstone's

:49:02. > :49:05.controversial comments, accusations of anti-Semitism flying around, is

:49:06. > :49:12.starting to cut through in some pockets of the country. Also saying

:49:13. > :49:17.that Labour holding Harlow, Nuneaton, good signs, too, coming

:49:18. > :49:21.from Labour camps in Southampton and Crawley, areas of the country where

:49:22. > :49:25.there are marginal seats at general elections. Labour was worried about

:49:26. > :49:30.losing councils in those kind of places tonight. So far, they are

:49:31. > :49:34.having a better night than some had predicted, and they will be pleased

:49:35. > :49:36.if that continues, and the Conservatives will be disappointed

:49:37. > :49:44.if they are not taking councils from Labour. We will go to Llanelli in

:49:45. > :49:50.South Wales. Ukip's Neil Hamilton is waiting. How do you read things

:49:51. > :49:56.there? I think Ukip will do very well in Wales tonight. We are tipped

:49:57. > :50:00.to win eight seats out of the 60 in the assembly and we will be very

:50:01. > :50:05.pleased with that. What is your attitude going in? If you get a

:50:06. > :50:08.place in the assembly, what is your working principle, to go in to try

:50:09. > :50:16.and get the place abolished or to work with people there? Ukip opposed

:50:17. > :50:20.the creation of the assembly in the first place but the Welsh people

:50:21. > :50:24.decided by referendum that they wanted to have an assembly with

:50:25. > :50:28.devolved powers and Ukip accept that result, so we will be a constructive

:50:29. > :50:33.opposition in the assembly after tomorrow, and we are looking forward

:50:34. > :50:39.to getting down to work as soon as we can. We have just seen the

:50:40. > :50:45.results from an immense Deeside, a 17% rise, I think, in the Ukip vote.

:50:46. > :50:50.I am wondering what for you has been the driving force in this campaign.

:50:51. > :50:53.When you meet people on the doorsteps, what are they talking

:50:54. > :50:59.about, matters to do with the Welsh Assembly or the forthcoming

:51:00. > :51:04.referendum? I think European issues have been a very big factor in

:51:05. > :51:07.people's minds. There is still enormous ignorance in Wales about

:51:08. > :51:13.the exact scope of the powers of the Welsh government. They know that the

:51:14. > :51:16.Labour government has been in charge for 17 years and messed up the

:51:17. > :51:22.health service. That has been an issue. Ukip is brought to the debate

:51:23. > :51:26.a wholly new perspective, because there are so many issues over which

:51:27. > :51:29.neither the Welsh nor the Westminster government at any powers

:51:30. > :51:33.to have much of an influence, like the problems in the steel industry,

:51:34. > :51:42.which in Llanelli and our next-door neighbours in Port Talbot feel very

:51:43. > :51:45.much close at heart. Did you mention eight seats? Is that your sense,

:51:46. > :51:51.that you are heading for eight seats? That is what I am told the

:51:52. > :51:55.pundits are predicting. I have thought all along that we would get

:51:56. > :52:01.seven, eight or nine seats, because it is not entirely the question of

:52:02. > :52:05.how many votes you get at a party but how the splits are with this

:52:06. > :52:11.proportional representation system between the other parties as well,

:52:12. > :52:14.so it depends in this region whether Plaid Cymru or Labour wins the seat

:52:15. > :52:19.in Llanelli and what happens to their seats in the region. That can

:52:20. > :52:23.impact us as well. It is a very random kind of result. It is

:52:24. > :52:30.impossible to be totally accurate about your predictions, even within

:52:31. > :52:35.the scope of opinion polls, which we have seen over many months. How have

:52:36. > :52:39.you reacted to lots of the accusations that you and Mark

:52:40. > :52:43.Reckless and others have been parachuted in to represent Ukip in a

:52:44. > :52:50.body that you haven't got a lot of time for? What do you say to that?

:52:51. > :52:56.In my case, in particular, it is rubbish to say I have been

:52:57. > :52:58.parachuted in to a seat in which I grew up and went to school. I am

:52:59. > :53:03.thoroughly Welsh through and through, just as you are. Here we

:53:04. > :53:09.are, virtually in your hometown of Llanelli. You are working in

:53:10. > :53:13.England. I have had to work in England, but we are no less Welsh as

:53:14. > :53:17.a result. This hasn't been an issue at all in this campaign. The

:53:18. > :53:21.reception I have had on the doorsteps and in the street has been

:53:22. > :53:25.uniformly friendly, whether that is entirely reflected in the result,

:53:26. > :53:30.who knows. But I am tipped as the lead candidate for Ukip in the mid

:53:31. > :53:35.west Wales region to be elected tonight and I hope that happens. It

:53:36. > :53:41.isn't virtually my hometown, it is my hometown. Let's be very accurate

:53:42. > :53:49.about that, shall we benchmark! Thank you very much. OK, very good.

:53:50. > :53:54.I am always glad to be corrected. My wife does it all the time. Neil

:53:55. > :53:59.Hamilton, thank you for joining us. We are still waiting for the result

:54:00. > :54:03.of the important contest going on in Llanelli for the assembly seat

:54:04. > :54:08.itself. Neil Hamilton is standing in, then. He is probably not going

:54:09. > :54:14.to get elected there. -- standing in Carmarthen. There is a big battle

:54:15. > :54:18.between Plaid Cymru and Labour in Llanelli itself. We need to draw

:54:19. > :54:24.breath and consider where we are. We are going to join Mike for the news.

:54:25. > :54:31.The first results are being declared in a range of elections across the

:54:32. > :54:33.UK. There has been voting for the Scottish parliament, the National

:54:34. > :54:37.Assembly of Wales, the Northern Ireland Assembly and more than 100

:54:38. > :54:43.local councils in England. Ian Watson has the latest. And they are

:54:44. > :54:48.off, county is underway in many English councils and elections for

:54:49. > :54:52.the Scottish council and Welsh Assembly. Two Parliamentary

:54:53. > :54:55.by-elections were also being fought. Labour's Joe Furniss increased her

:54:56. > :54:58.party's share of the vote in Sheffield Brightside and

:54:59. > :55:03.Hillsborough. The result in more is yet to be declared but one of the

:55:04. > :55:07.first council results of the Newcastle .- the result in Ogmore.

:55:08. > :55:10.The Labour council leader was returned with them increased

:55:11. > :55:15.majority and the party kept overall control -- overall control. Labour

:55:16. > :55:19.hasn't just kept control in many of its heartlands but also in Nuneaton

:55:20. > :55:23.in the West Midlands and Stevenage in the south-east, where the party

:55:24. > :55:27.they want to win parliamentary seat at the election. They were tipped to

:55:28. > :55:40.lose in Hastings but defied expectations.

:55:41. > :55:46.All that should be good news for Jeremy Corbyn but he is under

:55:47. > :55:50.pressure over all Labour has lost a number of councillors. Early

:55:51. > :55:55.indications suggest the party isn't polling as well as it did the last

:55:56. > :55:58.time many of these seats were contested in 2012, but it is doing a

:55:59. > :56:03.bit better than the poor performance at the last general election. The

:56:04. > :56:08.deputy said it is too soon to reach a verdict on the party leader. If we

:56:09. > :56:12.end up in a debate over whether winning or losing 100 seats is good

:56:13. > :56:16.news for Jeremy Corbyn or not, I think we missed the seat. Jeremy

:56:17. > :56:22.Corbyn has only been Labour Party leader for eight months. We are

:56:23. > :56:25.coming back from a very low base. In Scotland, the's suggest the SNP will

:56:26. > :56:29.retain their overall majority but there is a battle between Labour and

:56:30. > :56:39.the Conservatives for second place. The Lib Dems retained control of

:56:40. > :56:43.Orkney. There is no chance of the SNP winning every seat but we could

:56:44. > :56:47.win more than the very substantial number that we won in 2011, when we

:56:48. > :56:53.actually managed to get that overall majority. So far the Conservatives

:56:54. > :56:58.retained control of 13 councils increased the number of councillors.

:56:59. > :57:03.Labour are fighting hard to keep control of the Welsh Assembly, where

:57:04. > :57:08.Ukip is hopeful of gaining representation for the first time.

:57:09. > :57:12.Ukip is now eating hard into the old Labour vote. That is the message I

:57:13. > :57:17.think we will take from Ukip performance in these elections. The

:57:18. > :57:20.full picture will not be known in Northern Ireland until the weekend

:57:21. > :57:22.and across Britain the Lib Dems are simply hoping to avoid a repeat of

:57:23. > :57:25.last year's meltdown. At least 30 people are reported

:57:26. > :57:28.killed in an air strike on a refugee Images on social media showed

:57:29. > :57:32.the aftermath of the attack It isn't clear who

:57:33. > :57:39.carried out the attack. There are unconfirmed reports that

:57:40. > :57:40.Syrian or Russian Talks are set to resume next week

:57:41. > :57:48.to try to resolve the dispute over The Government and British Medical

:57:49. > :57:55.Association agreed in theory to five days of negotiations

:57:56. > :57:58.during which plans to impose the contract and the threat

:57:59. > :58:14.of industrial action The first for Congress of North

:58:15. > :58:19.Korea's workers party has begun in Pyongyang. The first day of a much

:58:20. > :58:24.rehearsed gathering, set to last for years, is set to be dominated by a

:58:25. > :58:32.speech by the country's leader, Kim Jong-un.

:58:33. > :58:40.What I would like to do is get us up-to-date with what is happening in

:58:41. > :58:44.the local elections in England. These results are ticking in

:58:45. > :58:48.steadily as they come. One or two of them have results which are

:58:49. > :58:54.certainly of interest to us. Before we checked into our guests, let's go

:58:55. > :58:59.to Emily. We haven't seen many changed hands. One is, a

:59:00. > :59:04.Conservative loss in Worcester. It has gone into no overall control. It

:59:05. > :59:08.goes between no overall control and Tory over the years. It is a bit of

:59:09. > :59:14.a Tory - Labour battle in this part of England. We think that Labour and

:59:15. > :59:19.the Greens have worked together to block the Tories. The Greens have

:59:20. > :59:24.seen one seat gain and the Conservatives are down. It could

:59:25. > :59:28.headline for you, in Trafford, we began at the beginning of the night,

:59:29. > :59:34.but the Conservatives hold on? Still to declare, but they are holding on

:59:35. > :59:38.without a problem. I will also take you into a couple of seats we have

:59:39. > :59:43.had. I am looking at some of these for the first time. Dundee West in

:59:44. > :59:51.Scotland, the less industrial half of Dundee. You can see it is an SNP

:59:52. > :59:56.hold, Fitzpatrick, majority of 8000. Let's look at some of the others.

:59:57. > :00:00.You are starting to see this change. Even though they are SNP holds, look

:00:01. > :00:04.at the percentage of the Conservative vote. The Conservatives

:00:05. > :00:10.gaining 10% in Scotland in this seat. Clackmannanshire to Labour,

:00:11. > :00:16.losing 10% share overnight. And the same sort of pattern, that is the

:00:17. > :00:22.swing, the same sort of pattern emerging now in East Kilbride, where

:00:23. > :00:26.once again the SNP are holding, that is the headline, but you can see

:00:27. > :00:31.beneath the surface Labour are down 17%. Both the SNP and the

:00:32. > :00:36.Conservatives picking up those seat and that share. This is what the

:00:37. > :00:42.swing looks like there, a healthy swing from Labour to the SNP of 13%.

:00:43. > :00:45.The SNP will be pleased to see that in the places they are holding, and

:00:46. > :00:52.maybe that will suggest they can take more Labour seats. John Curtice

:00:53. > :00:56.sent us a message a while ago saying, and this is something I will

:00:57. > :00:59.put to you, Jack, one reason Labour may be left with little in the wake

:01:00. > :01:04.of constituency seats at the end of the night in is that the parties

:01:05. > :01:08.seem to be falling more heavily in seats they were trying to defend

:01:09. > :01:13.them elsewhere. So far the party's vote is down on average by 12 points

:01:14. > :01:16.in the three constituencies it was trying to defend whereas elsewhere

:01:17. > :01:22.it is down by an average of six points.

:01:23. > :01:29.It is on a par with what happened last year. In what would formerly

:01:30. > :01:36.have been known as Labour heartlands, there was a dramatic

:01:37. > :01:39.shift to the SNP in 2015. Also a bit of a reaction to Labour's current

:01:40. > :01:45.political positioning at the UK level. Labour has been quite good at

:01:46. > :01:52.retaining some of the voters that we won in 1997 over the course of the

:01:53. > :01:59.last almost 20 years. But with Labour's current lytic opposition at

:02:00. > :02:02.a UK level, some of those former Conservative voters are drifting

:02:03. > :02:09.back to the Conservatives. -- current political position. So not

:02:10. > :02:12.just the SNP, maybe we have lost a few to the Conservatives. How do you

:02:13. > :02:19.measure the Corbyn effect in Scotland? It has been very much

:02:20. > :02:23.Kezia Dugdale's election and she has done a remarkable job in difficult

:02:24. > :02:28.circumstances. To take the party from the catastrophe of last year,

:02:29. > :02:31.to unite the party and lift its spirits, I have been struck by how

:02:32. > :02:37.cheerful she has been every day on the TV screens. She has put Labour

:02:38. > :02:43.back in the game. But she was never going to do any more than that in

:02:44. > :02:48.ten months. It's a long-term job for her, really. Hopefully she has

:02:49. > :02:53.something now that she can build on. There will be people thinking, what

:02:54. > :02:56.is he talking about, back in the game? The Conservatives are in

:02:57. > :03:01.second, how can you define that as being back in the game? I would be

:03:02. > :03:04.surprised tonight if the Conservatives are in second in terms

:03:05. > :03:09.of the overall percentage of the vote. Not impossible, but I would be

:03:10. > :03:14.surprised. The polls in Scotland are probably just about right for once

:03:15. > :03:20.in recent election campaigns, and I suspect the SNP will poll around

:03:21. > :03:23.where they have been, and Labour will be slightly ahead of the

:03:24. > :03:28.Conservatives. I could be wrong but that is my expectation. We are being

:03:29. > :03:38.joined by viewers from across the UK.

:03:39. > :03:43.Welcome back to the BBC Election Centre. Let's look at Scotland and

:03:44. > :03:48.bring you right up to date with what is going on there. The seats

:03:49. > :03:51.declared so far in the Scottish Parliament, the SNP have held Dundee

:03:52. > :04:05.city East. The Lib Dems have held the two we

:04:06. > :04:09.reported in Orkney and Shetland. The Conservatives have gained one from

:04:10. > :04:18.Labour, Eastwood, a big surprise earlier.

:04:19. > :04:26.That is where we are. Brora, from your point of view, the Scottish

:04:27. > :04:38.picture, for the reasons Jack was outlining, is intriguing. -- Laura.

:04:39. > :04:45.Trying to make sense of Mr Mundell's confidence that he will be in

:04:46. > :04:48.second. There is an early focus on the constituency seats. In some

:04:49. > :04:52.parts, the Tories are doing better than they dared hope. But in the

:04:53. > :04:56.proportional part of the ballot, they take longer to tally up and it

:04:57. > :05:00.may well be that they don't end up with the silver medal. What I would

:05:01. > :05:05.say, it is still remarkable, and would have been a few months ago

:05:06. > :05:10.even, to imagine we would have been having this conversation that it is

:05:11. > :05:15.a realistic even if not a certainty that the Conservatives would be

:05:16. > :05:19.taking second. If that happens, it is a huge shift in Scottish

:05:20. > :05:23.politics. A massive one. The question then would be whether or

:05:24. > :05:27.not they could translate it into a UK wide picture. For so long in

:05:28. > :05:33.Westminster they have hardly been able to is sent more than a single

:05:34. > :05:37.soul from Scotland to London to be part of the UK Government. It is now

:05:38. > :05:41.David Mundell himself, that single soul. We need to be cautious about

:05:42. > :05:47.the final result but not ignore the fact it is a very significant change

:05:48. > :05:53.on the table. People on both sides of the camp that I spoke to in the

:05:54. > :05:57.last couple of days thought it was likely, but certainly not

:05:58. > :06:03.inevitable, and probably less likely than... Straight to Glasgow and

:06:04. > :06:12.Patrick Harvie from the Scottish Green party. Your sense of things

:06:13. > :06:16.tonight as they stand? Well, certainly from our point of view,

:06:17. > :06:20.this has been the most exciting Scottish Parliament election we have

:06:21. > :06:24.ever fought. The extraordinary surge in members we have experienced in

:06:25. > :06:28.the last three years has meant we are a party of well over 9000, much

:06:29. > :06:34.bigger than the Liberal Democrats, for example, who we hope to overtake

:06:35. > :06:39.in seats as well as share of the regional vote. The regional votes

:06:40. > :06:43.take a bit longer to declare than the constituencies, so we haven't

:06:44. > :06:47.seen the numbers yet. But we are really hoping this is going to be

:06:48. > :06:51.our best ever result. We have been campaigning on a scale way beyond

:06:52. > :07:00.our wildest dreams in previous elections. A real moment of optimism

:07:01. > :07:07.for the Greens. I am told that you said you had Labour within your

:07:08. > :07:14.sites. The bubbly overstated, yes? I would say that is not a goal for

:07:15. > :07:18.tonight. -- probably overstated. But clearly the Scottish Parliament

:07:19. > :07:22.needs a strong, bold, progressive voice. Frankly, Labour are not

:07:23. > :07:29.cutting it any more. If their decline, not just this year and last

:07:30. > :07:33.year, it is a long-term decline, multi-decade, if it continues,

:07:34. > :07:36.clearly there is a need for a new voice on the progressive wing of

:07:37. > :07:40.Scottish politics. Who do you want holding the next Scottish Government

:07:41. > :07:43.to account? Is it just going to be the Tories dragging them to the

:07:44. > :07:47.right, demanding the same cuts on public services as happening south

:07:48. > :07:52.of the border, or do you want the Scottish Government pushed to be

:07:53. > :07:55.more progressive and bolder with the tax powers coming, so we can close

:07:56. > :07:59.the gap between the richest and the rest in society, and invest in

:08:00. > :08:06.public services and the jobs and homes of the future? That is the

:08:07. > :08:10.agenda the Green s intend for the next Parliament. If Labour no longer

:08:11. > :08:15.cut it as a progressive force in Scottish politics, we are ready for

:08:16. > :08:21.the job. Patrick Harvie, thank you. Straight to Bridgend. The Ogmore

:08:22. > :08:32.by-election. I hereby give notice that the number

:08:33. > :08:42.of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows.

:08:43. > :08:51.Glenda Davis, Ukip Wales, 3808. Janet Allard, Welsh Liberal

:08:52. > :09:07.Democrats, 702. Christopher Elmore, welch, 12383. -- Welsh Labour.

:09:08. > :09:07.Abigail Thomas, Plaid Cymru, 3683. Alexander Williams, Welsh

:09:08. > :09:20.Conservative Party, 2956. 77 rejected ballot papers. I hereby

:09:21. > :09:28.declare that Christopher Elmore is duly elected.

:09:29. > :09:37.That's the result from the Ogmore by-election. Can I just explain,

:09:38. > :09:43.Chris Elmore is succeeding Hugh Rankin Davis, the former MP who has

:09:44. > :09:48.decided, rather unusually, to leave Westminster to take up a place as a

:09:49. > :09:52.Labour member of the Welsh Assembly. Normally it is the other way around,

:09:53. > :09:56.Welsh Assembly members tend to spend time in Cardiff and then look to

:09:57. > :10:02.Westminster. Is this the start of a new trend? We wonder. Plenty of his

:10:03. > :10:06.supporters think he is a potential future leader for Labour in Wales,

:10:07. > :10:10.and a potential future First Minister. Who knows? Anyway, this

:10:11. > :10:15.Elmore is the winner of the Ogmore by-election. Ogmore is a valley that

:10:16. > :10:22.extends from one of the old coal-mining valleys up from

:10:23. > :10:26.Bridgend. Very close to where Carwyn Jones, the First Minister, has a

:10:27. > :10:36.seat. It has a new Labour MP, Chris Elmore. The former MP is waiting for

:10:37. > :10:40.his result to represent Ogmore itself as an Assembly Member. The

:10:41. > :10:43.same constituency, but switching platforms, if you like. A turnout of

:10:44. > :10:53.43%. The context is interesting. 40% was

:10:54. > :10:55.the turnout for the Welsh Assembly elections five years ago, so it is a

:10:56. > :11:07.little up on that. I am interested that Ukip came

:11:08. > :11:11.second in this seat. Normally you would expect Plaid Cymru or the

:11:12. > :11:17.Conservatives to come second, but Ukip in second, level pegging with

:11:18. > :11:22.Plaid Cymru, 16% each. Ukip have made inroads into the old industrial

:11:23. > :11:23.valleys in south Wales. In Merthyr Tydfil, they scored 19% at the

:11:24. > :11:37.election last year. Labour, where they were. Plaid Cymru

:11:38. > :11:45.up 6%, they will be pleased about that, but still in third. A swing

:11:46. > :11:51.from Labour to Ukip, 0.6%. In Edinburgh, Ruth Davidson, the leader

:11:52. > :11:55.of the Scottish Conservatives. Let's see if she is smiling all looking

:11:56. > :12:02.sombre. Probably smiling after the result in Eastwood. With ten

:12:03. > :12:06.constituency seats declared in Scotland, the Labour vote is down by

:12:07. > :12:12.11 points. The Conservatives up by six points.

:12:13. > :12:20.Looking at the images of Ruth Davidson. If this continued, Labour

:12:21. > :12:26.would end up a point ahead of Conservatives in constituency votes,

:12:27. > :12:30.but the seats won will be determined by the outcome on the list vote,

:12:31. > :12:34.which we don't have yet, which many opinion polls suggest the

:12:35. > :12:41.Conservatives will do slightly better in than Labour. The SNP vote

:12:42. > :12:45.up by four points, suggesting once again the party will win close to

:12:46. > :12:50.half the vote in Scotland. Very interesting. As we look at these

:12:51. > :12:56.images, Jack McConnell, what do you make of that? The Conservatives,

:12:57. > :13:03.well, clearly very close to the position where they could possibly

:13:04. > :13:08.be in second. As I say, I think the combination of the shift to the SNP

:13:09. > :13:13.last year, and a bit of a shift to the Conservatives this year, it

:13:14. > :13:21.might make it a viable option. But it's early days. What you are

:13:22. > :13:27.getting is odd results. The Eastwood result has been affected by the

:13:28. > :13:31.Labour SNP shift. I think there will be other results that might surprise

:13:32. > :13:35.us over the course of the night. Nobody was expecting the Orkney and

:13:36. > :13:39.Shetland results to be quite so decisive. Clearly the SNP are not

:13:40. > :13:43.going to win every constituency, which almost everyone was predicting

:13:44. > :13:49.in the last two or three weeks. Early days. Looking at the popular

:13:50. > :13:55.vote in the constituencies, we still have the list to come... You always

:13:56. > :13:58.get the urban seats early on, so Labour does better early on, but it

:13:59. > :14:05.will be close by the end of the night. If it does happen, what would

:14:06. > :14:08.it mean for Labour in Scotland? In some ways, it's not really any more

:14:09. > :14:14.significant than what happened last year. Labour in Scotland is in a

:14:15. > :14:20.terrible position. They have a long haul back to credibility, to public

:14:21. > :14:24.support, and eventually hopefully power. It's not going to happen

:14:25. > :14:28.overnight, it was never going to happen in 12 months. At the moment

:14:29. > :14:33.it is still very early days to judge that claw-back. But is it not the

:14:34. > :14:39.case that losing the spot as the official opposition...? That would

:14:40. > :14:44.be a fundamental shift in Scottish politics. Wouldn't it be a death

:14:45. > :14:47.knell for Scottish Labour? It would add to the situation where their

:14:48. > :14:53.position is extremely challenging, but they have to make a call in this

:14:54. > :14:58.election campaign, do they go on the policy of tackling poverty, tackling

:14:59. > :15:04.austerity, in some way 's go to the left of the SNP? Start challenging

:15:05. > :15:09.the SNP government to do more in Scotland and stop talking about it,

:15:10. > :15:13.and actually take action? Or do they stay where they have been for a

:15:14. > :15:17.while, in the centre ground? Having made that shift, maybe it has opened

:15:18. > :15:21.an opportunity for the Conservatives. It may be a return to

:15:22. > :15:25.normality in Scottish politics as well. You might see the left right

:15:26. > :15:30.development of a debate in Scotland which has been absent the ten years,

:15:31. > :15:32.where it has been about nationalism. Your views on Europe the

:15:33. > :15:43.Conservatives in Scotland? It is early to see where we will end

:15:44. > :15:46.up, the fact that we are having the conversation, that really does show

:15:47. > :15:51.how poor it has become for Labour in Scotland, how hard-working the team

:15:52. > :15:54.have been, but this is across the country, Labour front bench,

:15:55. > :15:57.backbench MPs criticising leadership, council leaders are the

:15:58. > :16:00.sizing the leadership for wrong sense of direction, losing the

:16:01. > :16:07.people who have been voting labour for 20 years, now going to the SNP

:16:08. > :16:11.or the Conservatives, in Scotland. It is interesting we are having this

:16:12. > :16:15.conversation at all, in the sense of how far Labour seems to be going

:16:16. > :16:18.down that kind of road, not getting the support and creating the

:16:19. > :16:23.internal argument on the day the local elections, where they should

:16:24. > :16:26.be making gains. Not just talking about a few seats, Labour should be

:16:27. > :16:31.making substantial gain so they get to where they were this time in

:16:32. > :16:38.2012. In England, given that most people in your party were predicting

:16:39. > :16:42.something of a disaster, many conservatives say that you would

:16:43. > :16:47.walk the next general election if he was imposed, why is it in the case,

:16:48. > :16:51.where there are many crucial marginals in England, places like

:16:52. > :16:55.Crawley, crucial councils like that, good signs for Southampton, holding

:16:56. > :17:01.Nuneaton, how come the Conservatives are not beating Labour? Nuneaton is

:17:02. > :17:07.an 11% swing to the Conservatives. I look at it the other way. Labour

:17:08. > :17:09.held in. But six years in a Conservative government, one you're

:17:10. > :17:14.after a general election, which we won, having to take tough decisions

:17:15. > :17:18.around spending, the fact that we are having a conversation that we

:17:19. > :17:21.are gaining seats, could be gaining councils, that is indicative of how

:17:22. > :17:26.far Labour have fallen. They should be sweeping up, winning in Thurrock,

:17:27. > :17:34.Great Yarmouth, they are losing seats there... It is a bad night for

:17:35. > :17:40.Labour, no getting away from it. The result coming up on the screen,

:17:41. > :17:44.looks like the SNP's number one target seat has held West Lothian

:17:45. > :17:48.for Labour, my point about unpredictable results over the

:17:49. > :17:53.course of the night... Unconfirmed. If that is the case, my point about

:17:54. > :17:58.unpredictable results over the course of the night... That is a

:17:59. > :18:20.seed which the SNP won handsomely, last summer. -- seat.

:18:21. > :18:56.Welsh Liberal Democrats, 1718. Plaid Cymru, two to 69. -- 2000 269. A

:18:57. > :19:07.UK Independence Party, Ukip, 3794. Total number of ballot papers

:19:08. > :19:27.rejected, 165. I do hereby declare that Hannah

:19:28. > :19:34.Blythyn has been newly elected. Labour hanging on, to Delyn. In this

:19:35. > :19:38.part of north-east Wales they had been concerned that if Ukip

:19:39. > :19:43.performed strongly, they are on 16% of the vote, they may upset the

:19:44. > :19:53.balance, however, they are in third place, they have pushed the Plaid

:19:54. > :19:58.Cymru into fourth place. There was a time when the Westminster seat was

:19:59. > :20:05.represented by the Conservatives, by Keith Rathbun, in the 80s and 90s.

:20:06. > :20:17.To underline, were not standing last time. The Liberal Democrats are on

:20:18. > :20:21.7%. That is the latest result. Asking for the latest that you have

:20:22. > :20:24.on the English local elections, because again, lots of things have

:20:25. > :20:31.been coming in and it is worth catching up. This complicated, that

:20:32. > :20:35.was the mantra at the start of the night, from John McDonnell, very few

:20:36. > :20:40.seats are even changing hands, very councils changing parents, -- very

:20:41. > :20:47.few councils. Nothing much is happening. Some very good moments in

:20:48. > :20:51.all of this for Labour. In Crawley, for example, the most vulnerable

:20:52. > :20:55.seat, one which they thought they would lose on a bad night, one seat

:20:56. > :21:00.majority, they have increased that, sitting on a majority of three. Not

:21:01. > :21:05.a big movement, if I show you the seat change overnight, this is a

:21:06. > :21:10.matter of one game for Labour and one loss for the Conservatives but

:21:11. > :21:14.it is of extreme importance, in the south, they do not have many

:21:15. > :21:20.councils south of the M4, and so this is a very important one for

:21:21. > :21:26.Labour to hold onto. Redditch, the battle, could Labour hold on, could

:21:27. > :21:30.they build? Majority of one... Not a shift, if you look at the seat

:21:31. > :21:35.change, nothing has happened, this is why there is frustration with how

:21:36. > :21:39.to tell the narrative, not much is happening, but where Labour can hold

:21:40. > :21:43.on and where they have held on, they will be pleased. Taking you to the

:21:44. > :21:49.scoreboard, this shows you a little bit more of what is happening.

:21:50. > :21:55.Labour, the lion share, they had 49% of the council standing tonight,

:21:56. > :21:58.560, they are down 29. Conservatives, 319, making gains of

:21:59. > :22:05.ten, the Liberal Democrats have added an six, independence, down

:22:06. > :22:11.five, Ukip making games of 18, not much movement for the greens of the

:22:12. > :22:14.residents. 63 out of 124, halfway through, if you are looking for

:22:15. > :22:20.numbers, not big numbers in either of the columns, this is what is

:22:21. > :22:28.happening on councils. You may have to come back to us. Because you have

:22:29. > :22:35.given us the numbers, John, seeing as we were looking at Labour losses

:22:36. > :22:39.on that child, and Conservative gains, if anybody is thinking that

:22:40. > :22:44.the Conservatives are having a good night, would they be right to think

:22:45. > :22:49.that? Not particularly, those gains are gains against the position in

:22:50. > :22:54.2012, when the Conservatives did relatively badly. The truth is that

:22:55. > :22:57.as compared with last year, Labour are gaining ground, the

:22:58. > :23:02.Conservatives are falling back. Even as compared with 2012, the

:23:03. > :23:07.Conservatives are not making much of a gain in terms of votes, distance

:23:08. > :23:10.that the Labour vote is down. One detail that is emerging out of the

:23:11. > :23:14.resource, that the Conservatives might be worried about, begins to

:23:15. > :23:20.explain why councils like Redditch and Crawley and perhaps elsewhere,

:23:21. > :23:24.which are on some people's lists of faces Labour may lose, that is not

:23:25. > :23:27.happening, looks as though the conservative vote is falling away

:23:28. > :23:32.particularly heavily, surprise surprise, in the southern half of

:23:33. > :23:35.England. And it is not that Labour are making progress, in that part of

:23:36. > :23:39.the world, it is simply that the Conservatives are falling back.

:23:40. > :23:45.Remember, with tallies of seats, who wins and who loses does not simply,

:23:46. > :23:51.a party can gain seats simply because its opponents are doing

:23:52. > :23:57.worse. Be careful. Certainly, in terms of headlines, at least, in

:23:58. > :24:00.terms of headlines of Labour loses council tax, council wide, counsel

:24:01. > :24:06.said, tomorrow morning is beginning to look not as bad for Jeremy Corbyn

:24:07. > :24:22.as perhaps it could have done. -- loses council by, counsel y, council

:24:23. > :25:22.z. -- 16100 and 83. John Scott is duly

:25:23. > :25:32.elected as the member of the Scottish Parliament. For the

:25:33. > :25:50.constituency. -- 16,001 83. -- 16100 and 83.

:25:51. > :25:58.He's back in there, that is ACE, it is fair to say, when we looked at

:25:59. > :26:03.the predictions, fortnight, we were expecting the SNP to perhaps take

:26:04. > :26:09.from the Conservatives, but a majority of 750, not a big majority,

:26:10. > :26:15.turnout of 61%, healthy turnout, given the 50 odd percent we have

:26:16. > :26:24.seen in other seats. This is the share, 43% of the vote. -- that is a

:26:25. > :26:29.seat. The SNP put up a strong fight, but they did not quite get there.

:26:30. > :26:35.Let's go... Having seen that result, let's join Nicola Sturgeon, speaking

:26:36. > :26:40.in Glasgow. Are you getting your own mandate tonight? I'm hoping so, I

:26:41. > :26:45.hope the SNP will win the election, what we are seeing tonight is a vote

:26:46. > :26:49.of confidence in the SNP's record in government and an enormous vote of

:26:50. > :26:55.trust in our own ability to leap forward the country. What about

:26:56. > :27:00.getting a majority? We will wait and see how the numbers shake out all

:27:01. > :27:04.stop -- lead the country forward. You have swings and roundabouts,

:27:05. > :27:12.what you gain in the constituencies you often lose elsewhere. -- shake

:27:13. > :27:17.out. I'm very proud of the people that have been campaigning. Have you

:27:18. > :27:21.shaken off Labour once and for all the now? You never say never, but

:27:22. > :27:24.what we have seen across the central belt, the SNP is replacing Labour,

:27:25. > :27:28.the collapse in Labour support is quite staggering, but I feel very

:27:29. > :27:33.humble by the trust that people across Scotland are putting in the

:27:34. > :27:37.SNP, and I'm determined, if the result develops, the way that I hope

:27:38. > :27:41.it does, I'm determined to govern this country in the interest of

:27:42. > :27:47.everyone in this country. How would you a second term be different? If

:27:48. > :27:52.you see this as a personal mandate? Ambitious manifesto, education at

:27:53. > :27:56.the very centre of my plans for a third term. I should say that we

:27:57. > :27:59.still have a lot of results to come this evening, I'm taking nothing for

:28:00. > :28:04.granted. I am ambitious to invest in a former health service, -- form of

:28:05. > :28:08.health service to make sure we have the best in the world and support

:28:09. > :28:11.small businesses and create jobs and build on a real sense of confidence

:28:12. > :28:15.that I believe exists in Scotland now. I'm enthusiastic about the

:28:16. > :28:20.challenges and the massive opportunities lying ahead. At what

:28:21. > :28:24.stage would you then head for a referendum? I am going to firstly

:28:25. > :28:28.wait and see how the election develops, if you don't mind, over

:28:29. > :28:31.the course of the evening, then I will get on with delivering the

:28:32. > :28:35.manifesto that I set out to the people of Scotland and matter of

:28:36. > :28:38.weeks ago, education at the heart of that. Everybody knows that I

:28:39. > :28:40.desperately want to see Scotland become an independent country but

:28:41. > :28:45.the decision will lie where it firmly belongs, that is in the hands

:28:46. > :28:48.of the Scottish people. INAUDIBLE QUESTION

:28:49. > :28:52.I will govern for every single person in this country for the top I

:28:53. > :28:57.will do that the best of my ability and seek to the trust of those who

:28:58. > :29:00.did not vote SNP yesterday, although, on the result we have seen

:29:01. > :29:06.so far, very many people did vote SNP. I feel hugely humbled by the

:29:07. > :29:07.trust people are putting in the SNP and in me as First Minister.

:29:08. > :29:23.INAUDIBLE QUESTION Winnie any election is special.

:29:24. > :29:28.Asking for and getting the trust of people is a very precious being.

:29:29. > :29:34.Putting yourself forward to be the leader, the First Minister of the

:29:35. > :29:39.country, is extra special. You did well at Westminster, how would it

:29:40. > :29:45.feel to take all of the seats tonight? If I turn the clock back to

:29:46. > :29:49.my teenage years or might early 20s and if somebody told me then we

:29:50. > :29:54.would sweep the board, I would not have believed them. Let's wait and

:29:55. > :30:00.see the results tonight. I am quite confident we might see a repeat

:30:01. > :30:07.performance. Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, says she

:30:08. > :30:11.is quietly confident. Underlying all of that is an expectation from the

:30:12. > :30:15.SNP that they will be forming another government and they will

:30:16. > :30:18.have a working majority despite the fact that the system is not built to

:30:19. > :30:24.deliver an automatic working majority. Nicola Sturgeon. At

:30:25. > :30:30.quarter past three in the morning in Glasgow she is waiting for her

:30:31. > :30:34.result in Glasgow said side. Other Scottish results coming in and they

:30:35. > :30:42.are interesting. Perthshire and Murray is where the SNP are holding

:30:43. > :30:59.on, but the majority is smaller. But now we are going to Paisley. 14,682.

:31:00. > :31:22.Scottish Labour Party, 9483. Paul Masterton, Scottish Conservative and

:31:23. > :31:33.Unionist Party, 3533. Eileen McCartan, Scottish Liberal

:31:34. > :31:42.Democrats, 1766. The total number of ballot papers rejected was 128. The

:31:43. > :31:49.total number of votes was 29,000 592. Therefore, I declared George

:31:50. > :31:59.Adam is duly elected as the member of the Scottish Parliament for the

:32:00. > :32:07.Paisley constituency. George Adam holding on to Paisley, a majority of

:32:08. > :32:13.over 5000 on a turnout of 57%. The SNP taking 50% of the vote in

:32:14. > :32:19.Paisley. Let's leave Paisley for now. I would like to go to to

:32:20. > :32:24.Sheffield because the Labour MP John Mann has been waiting to talk to us.

:32:25. > :32:32.Your sense of where labour is tonight. Well, it is very much as we

:32:33. > :32:36.were. We were told we were going to get an extra 5 million votes, that

:32:37. > :32:41.was the promise, that has not happened. But we have not lost

:32:42. > :32:45.ground either. An extremely good result in Sheffield and a

:32:46. > :32:49.significant collapse in the Ukip vote which has not been noted

:32:50. > :33:01.sufficiently, and that is very bad news for Nigel Farage. Everything is

:33:02. > :33:05.a resounding victory here. There were thoughts that after your public

:33:06. > :33:12.confrontation with Ken Livingstone that that would damage the campaign.

:33:13. > :33:17.You think it has? Not in the slightest. I have been knocking on

:33:18. > :33:24.doors every day and there was not a single occasion. What has happened,

:33:25. > :33:30.and this is a sub theme of tonight's result, it is clear that the Jewish

:33:31. > :33:35.vote, which for generations in families has been for Labour, has

:33:36. > :33:39.gone against labour tonight. We have seen that in Bury, we have seen it

:33:40. > :33:44.in Glasgow and we may see it tomorrow in parts of London. Jeremy

:33:45. > :33:49.Corbyn has to lead from the front and get on top of this problem and

:33:50. > :33:55.do so effectively, because labour is not going to win power if we do not

:33:56. > :33:59.get on top of this problem. It is a huge problem and in those areas

:34:00. > :34:05.where the Jewish vote is significant, we are losing those

:34:06. > :34:08.seats. It is possible, I am not saying it any stronger than that,

:34:09. > :34:12.but it is possible that Labour will end up in third place in Scotland

:34:13. > :34:18.this evening. What are your thoughts on that? That would be cataclysmic

:34:19. > :34:24.for our morale. It would be so beyond comprehension and that would

:34:25. > :34:32.need some severe soul-searching amongst us. We were for a century

:34:33. > :34:37.the party of government in Scotland. If we came third, that would be

:34:38. > :34:41.cataclysmic. Is that a problem with the Scottish leadership or is it a

:34:42. > :34:46.problem with the Jeremy Corbyn leadership? It is not a Scottish

:34:47. > :34:56.problem, but it is one that Jeremy Corbyn has got to address. It was my

:34:57. > :35:06.view a month ago and a day ago that they should not be one against them,

:35:07. > :35:10.but he has to get on top of the issues. We should have been winning

:35:11. > :35:14.by a landslide across the country with the way this Tory government

:35:15. > :35:19.has been acting and with the way they have dealt with the collapse in

:35:20. > :35:24.economic confidence. We are doing OK, not bad results, we are holding

:35:25. > :35:29.our own, but we should be doing dramatically better. Now is not the

:35:30. > :35:36.time for any challenge and that is the view as well of virtually all my

:35:37. > :35:40.colleagues who I speak to, through the media might are somewhat

:35:41. > :35:48.critical of Jeremy Corbyn's policies. Stay with us. I think the

:35:49. > :35:52.idea that the solution to the problems of the Scottish Labour

:35:53. > :35:58.Party is for members south of the border to come riding over the hills

:35:59. > :36:02.to rescue us and sort us out is nonsense. The situation in the

:36:03. > :36:06.Scottish Labour Party has to be sorted in Scotland. It has a strong

:36:07. > :36:12.Scottish leadership at the moment, but they need time and support in

:36:13. > :36:18.order to rebuild the party from the very basics in Scotland. The idea

:36:19. > :36:22.that somehow the UK party leadership, or members of Parliament

:36:23. > :36:26.from south of the border, can come and rescue the situation or sort it

:36:27. > :36:33.out is fundamentally wrong and that has been part of the problem for the

:36:34. > :36:37.last 17 years. Until that attitude changes, Kezia Dugdale and the MSP

:36:38. > :36:45.in Scotland have a task that is more difficult. John Mann, thank you for

:36:46. > :36:52.joining us. In Sheffield, thank you born talking to us. There is a

:36:53. > :36:58.result from Fife North East. We are looking at this coming in. This is a

:36:59. > :37:03.Lib Dem gain from the SNP for Willie Rennie who is the leader of the Lib

:37:04. > :37:10.Dems in Scotland. I have got to say, no disrespect to Willie Rennie, this

:37:11. > :37:14.was not expected, Jack, was it? As I said early on, this will be an

:37:15. > :37:20.unpredictable night in Scotland. The overall picture will not be very

:37:21. > :37:23.different from the polls, but there will be individual results in

:37:24. > :37:29.individual constituencies that mark the start of a return to normal

:37:30. > :37:35.politics in Scotland. Is business seat that was represented by Menzies

:37:36. > :37:38.Campbell? Yes, it was, it was Liberal Democrat in the first

:37:39. > :37:51.parliament for the first few elections. We have got a result.

:37:52. > :37:56.This is the result of the Scottish Parliamentary election held on

:37:57. > :37:59.Thursday the 5th of May, 2016, for a member to serve on the Scottish

:38:00. > :38:10.parliament for the Cowdenbeath constituency. The electorate is

:38:11. > :38:17.54,596. 29,857 ballot papers were very bad, giving a turnout of

:38:18. > :38:26.54.69%. 123 ballot papers were rejected. I, David Henderson,

:38:27. > :38:29.constituency returning officer, give notice that the total number of

:38:30. > :38:37.votes cast for each candidate were as follows. David Dempsey, Scottish

:38:38. > :38:56.Conservative and Unionist Party, 4251. Annabelle Ewing, Scottish

:38:57. > :39:05.National party, SNP, 13,000 715. Bryn Jones, Scottish Liberal

:39:06. > :39:23.Democrats, 1094. Alex Radlett, Scottish Labour Party, 10600 and 74.

:39:24. > :39:28.The total numbers of valid votes was 29,734. I declare Annabelle Ewing to

:39:29. > :39:33.be elected to serve in the Scottish parliament as a member for the

:39:34. > :39:41.Cowdenbeath constituency. The majority was 3041. That is a gain

:39:42. > :39:47.for the SNP. This is a very unpredictable night. This is

:39:48. > :39:58.Annabelle Ewing from the famous Scottish political Ewing family. It

:39:59. > :40:02.is a gain from Labour. Alex Brownlee is the deputy leader of the Scottish

:40:03. > :40:08.Labour Party and used to be Gordon Brown's election agent. He is also

:40:09. > :40:13.on the list, so he may get into the Parliament. This is Annabelle Ewing

:40:14. > :40:29.giving her speech. Let's have a look at the share of the vote.

:40:30. > :40:38.It is a pretty convincing win by the SNP. The Conservatives are up by 7%.

:40:39. > :40:45.There are quite a few results coming in. I promised East Lothian. Emily

:40:46. > :40:54.has that result. Iain Gray has won East Lothian. 37% share of the vote.

:40:55. > :41:00.This is how we think he has done it. The conservative vote has dug up by

:41:01. > :41:05.seven and the SNP is down by four. Even though his vote has dropped

:41:06. > :41:09.slightly, the SNP has sunk further than the Labour vote and the

:41:10. > :41:15.conservative vote has gone up. This is an interesting comparison. When

:41:16. > :41:20.we talk about the Conservatives in Scotland, this is an extraordinary

:41:21. > :41:26.set of swings. These are all SNP held seats. The SNP are losing

:41:27. > :41:39.ground in the share of the vote to the Conservatives.

:41:40. > :41:46.Does that mean they might be pushed into second place? There will be a

:41:47. > :41:53.lot of people feeling optimistic that might happen. What are your

:41:54. > :41:55.thoughts on that? We have seen a conservative vote comeback in

:41:56. > :42:04.Scotland that not that long ago nobody would have predicted. Ruth

:42:05. > :42:09.Davidson and her team have put in excellent work in Scotland in a way

:42:10. > :42:13.that Labour is not doing. We are seeing the benefits of that hard

:42:14. > :42:19.work paying off. It is a great testament to the team and what they

:42:20. > :42:24.are doing in Scotland. In fairness, Iain Gray put up a pretty impressive

:42:25. > :42:30.fight to hold on. He has, and he suffered in 2011 from being the

:42:31. > :42:36.leader in an election campaign that had gone wrong. That affected his

:42:37. > :42:41.local result as well. He is a very hard-working local MSP and he got

:42:42. > :42:45.the result he deserves. We are now seeing these very consistent swings

:42:46. > :42:49.to the Conservatives across Scotland and that is partly about this

:42:50. > :42:54.increase in power is in the Parliament. I would not be surprised

:42:55. > :42:57.that amongst those voters who are most aware of the new tax powers are

:42:58. > :43:03.the former Conservative voters and they are going back to the

:43:04. > :43:07.Conservatives, both from the SNP and Labour in order to vote for a party

:43:08. > :43:14.that might be less reluctant to raise taxes and slow on. This might

:43:15. > :43:20.be a return to normality. It is worth underlining those swings are

:43:21. > :43:24.away from the SNP. The one-way story in recent years in the general

:43:25. > :43:29.election and what we were expecting tonight was that tidal wave to

:43:30. > :43:33.continue and their she going up almost everywhere. We are seeing

:43:34. > :43:39.that halted in some pockets of Scotland and that could be a

:43:40. > :43:43.significant moment. -- their share. One senior Conservative ministers

:43:44. > :43:47.said to me privately that they do believe the Tories will be in second

:43:48. > :43:53.place in Scotland. We have to wait a long time until that is officially

:43:54. > :44:01.confirmed. I would revise my earlier prediction. I think these swings are

:44:02. > :44:07.important. You will be leaving soon. I wanted to pick up on the John

:44:08. > :44:10.Curtice point, and his view that the Conservatives may be doing rather

:44:11. > :44:17.worse than they expected in parts of southern England and John telling us

:44:18. > :44:20.that the vote is down on average by six points, compared with three

:44:21. > :44:29.points across England as a whole and the pattern may mean that Labour

:44:30. > :44:30.loses relatively few seats. Does that tally with what your guys are

:44:31. > :44:37.telling you? Actually, I do not access that, as I

:44:38. > :44:41.said early on, six years into a Conservative government, one-year

:44:42. > :44:45.after the general election, we are even discussing the fact that we

:44:46. > :44:49.could gain seats, that is quite telling, and we may have made gains,

:44:50. > :44:53.we have seen the Labour vote collapsing, we have seen Labour lose

:44:54. > :44:56.out dramatically to Ukip in my own constituency, dropping to third

:44:57. > :45:02.place, that is a clear factor, we are doing well. We cannot compare

:45:03. > :45:06.general election and local election but the fact we are even discussing

:45:07. > :45:10.that we may have been able to look at gains and more seats in some

:45:11. > :45:18.places, that is indicative of how bad it is for Labour. Both of the

:45:19. > :45:24.main parties, in the UK, needs to be very wary of underestimating, not

:45:25. > :45:29.just Ukip but the anger among voters at mainstream politics. America,

:45:30. > :45:35.Europe, we see it even in Asia now, in the elections, happening in

:45:36. > :45:39.Scotland, happening in the UK, in Scotland they voted for a radical

:45:40. > :45:44.turn it, both from the right and the left. Could yet happen in England.

:45:45. > :45:48.Ukip may not be the vehicle. Some may say that is why Jeremy Corbyn

:45:49. > :45:52.was elected leader of the party. Tonight 's results are mixed for

:45:53. > :45:54.Labour and the Conservatives in England but neither should be

:45:55. > :46:00.complacent about the fact there is a disillusionment. There is a result

:46:01. > :46:05.coming in from south Wales, Merthyr Tydfil, looking at this, if we can,

:46:06. > :46:12.I am interested in what Ukip have done... We will get the result.

:46:13. > :46:20.Labour hold, I would expect that, and Ukip are in second place, we

:46:21. > :46:37.will look at the figures. They'd come ... Third, played Cymru. This

:46:38. > :46:42.is significant, because they were doing around 19, 20% last year in

:46:43. > :46:47.the general election in places like Merthyr, they are sustaining that,

:46:48. > :46:57.if not adding a little more even. Strong challengers, Plaid Cymru, in

:46:58. > :47:06.this seat in the past. They did not stand in 2011, that is a little

:47:07. > :47:13.misleading. Interesting to see the Labour to Ukip swing, 14%. You

:47:14. > :47:21.wonder, if that is going to be seen in places... That is interesting. At

:47:22. > :47:26.this point, what we will do is we will go over to Emily and see what

:47:27. > :47:31.she has got for us. Very quickly, one Labour loss, Dudley, we were

:47:32. > :47:36.looking closely to see if Labour could hold off the Tory challenge,

:47:37. > :47:40.it is west of Birmingham, not far from Redditch, which you will

:47:41. > :47:44.remember Labour held. Here, it has gone into no overall control, that

:47:45. > :47:52.swathes of labour pushing out the little line, Labour has lost overall

:47:53. > :47:56.control, this is how it happened. Overnight, Labour down two,

:47:57. > :48:00.conservatives up two, Ukip, coming in, we have seen them have a strong

:48:01. > :48:03.presence at a general election level last year in this part of the world,

:48:04. > :48:08.we have not finished counting, one more to declare, but we already know

:48:09. > :48:16.that Labour cannot hold Dudley, on this count. Thank you very much,

:48:17. > :48:20.looking at more results coming in. The SNP has helped sterling, pretty

:48:21. > :48:29.hefty majority, other SNP holds as well. Final old, before you leave

:48:30. > :48:34.us, Nicola Sturgeon, earlier, she is talking about getting her own

:48:35. > :48:39.mandate. -- final thought. What we all thought? I can imagine how she's

:48:40. > :48:44.feeling, I was there in 2003, coming in halfway through a term, becoming

:48:45. > :48:47.First Minister, never feels quite like you wonder post from the

:48:48. > :48:54.public. You win it from within your own party. Becoming First Minister

:48:55. > :48:59.on your own mandate, that is a significant moment, she is clearly

:49:00. > :49:02.going to win tonight, and I congratulate her on that

:49:03. > :49:08.achievement, I wish her well for the next term. It is going to make

:49:09. > :49:11.Scottish politics interesting. She will be judged on her own manifesto

:49:12. > :49:17.rather than what came before, that is healthy for everyone. Pausing for

:49:18. > :49:24.a second and catching up with the news, once again, joining Mike.

:49:25. > :49:28.First results being declared in a range of elections across the UK,

:49:29. > :49:31.voting for the Scottish parliament, the National Assembly of Wales and

:49:32. > :49:34.Northern Ireland assembly and more than 100 local councils in England.

:49:35. > :49:41.VOICEOVER: And they are off, counting is underway in many English

:49:42. > :49:42.councils and elections in the Scottish parliament and Welsh

:49:43. > :50:00.assembly. Two Parliamentary by-elections were

:50:01. > :50:05.also being fought. Jim Furniss was hoping to replace her late husband

:50:06. > :50:13.as the MP for Sheffield, and she did so, with an increased vote. -- Jill

:50:14. > :50:20.Furness. Tonight, David Cameron has been sent an emphatic message by the

:50:21. > :50:25.people of this constituency, we have had enough of your uncaring

:50:26. > :50:28.government. One of the first Council result was a council, the Labour

:50:29. > :50:35.council leader was returned with an increased majority, so far, Labour

:50:36. > :50:38.has not just retain control in many of its heartlands, including

:50:39. > :50:41.Sunderland, but also in Nuneaton, in the West Midlands, and Stevenage and

:50:42. > :50:45.Crawley in the south-east, where the party failed to win parliamentary

:50:46. > :50:50.seats at the general election. They were tipped to lose in Hastings on

:50:51. > :50:59.the south coast but they defied expectations. CHEERING

:51:00. > :51:05.All that should be good news for Jeremy Corbyn, but he is under

:51:06. > :51:09.pressure, overall, Labour has lost a small number of councillors, and

:51:10. > :51:14.early indications suggest the party is not polling day as well as it did

:51:15. > :51:17.the last time when the seats were contested in 2012. It is doing a bit

:51:18. > :51:21.better than the poor performance at the last general election, his

:51:22. > :51:26.deputy said it is too soon to reach a verdict on the party leader. We

:51:27. > :51:30.end up with a debate about winning 100 seats on losing 100 seats and

:51:31. > :51:34.whether that is good news for Jeremy Corbyn, if we do that, we missed the

:51:35. > :51:37.point, the point is that Jeremy Corbyn has been the leader for only

:51:38. > :51:42.eight months, we are coming back from a very low base. These results

:51:43. > :51:51.should be challenging for the Prime Minister, ruling parties tend to

:51:52. > :51:57.lose seats, tonight it will be cleared to see if there are any

:51:58. > :51:59.serious electoral consequences for the European question and MPs

:52:00. > :52:04.knocking spots off each other, but they are looking at the tally of

:52:05. > :52:08.councillors. Net gain territory in terms of councillors, Labour and the

:52:09. > :52:14.Lib Dems in negative territory in terms of losing councillors. In

:52:15. > :52:18.Scotland poll suggest the SNP will retain their overall majority,

:52:19. > :52:25.overnight, they have picking up from Labour. The Conservative's Ruth

:52:26. > :52:28.Davidson has the ambition to become the Leader of the Opposition in

:52:29. > :52:31.Holyrood, and the first time since a Scottish parliament was created,

:52:32. > :52:35.they have unseated Labour. Labour are fighting hard to keep control of

:52:36. > :52:37.the Welsh assembly, Ukip's hopeful of gaining representation

:52:38. > :52:45.representation the first time. The big messages that Ukip is now eating

:52:46. > :52:48.very hard into the old Labour and that is what we will take from this

:52:49. > :52:53.election performance. The full picture will not be known in

:52:54. > :52:55.Northern Ireland until the weekend, and across Britain, the Liberal

:52:56. > :52:58.Democrats are hoping to avoid a repeat of last year 's meltdown.

:52:59. > :53:07.At least 30 people are reported killed in an air strike on a refugee

:53:08. > :53:10.There are unconfirmed reports that Syrian or Russian

:53:11. > :53:18.a senior UN official has said that it could amount to a war crime.

:53:19. > :53:25.Talks are set to resume next week to try to resolve the dispute over

:53:26. > :53:29.The Government and British Medical Association agreed in theory to five

:53:30. > :53:31.days of negotiations, during which plans to impose

:53:32. > :53:33.the contract and the threat of industrial action

:53:34. > :53:54.We will have another new summary for you later on, let me say that we are

:53:55. > :53:59.still joined by Labour and Conservative representatives. You

:54:00. > :54:04.will be rewarded generously for coming in, 20 to four, in the

:54:05. > :54:07.morning. Because we are getting a series of results coming in, across

:54:08. > :54:12.Scotland, for the Scottish Parliament, Wales, a trickle of

:54:13. > :54:17.results from Wales, for the National Assembly, and of course, these

:54:18. > :54:24.thousands of council seats in England, in more than 100 councils.

:54:25. > :54:28.Let's focus upon that and Emily, bring us up-to-date, significant

:54:29. > :54:32.results including Southampton. Curious night for Labour, certainly,

:54:33. > :54:38.places where they did very well for years ago, when these were last

:54:39. > :54:43.fought, and we thought, on a bad night, they may slip out of Labour

:54:44. > :54:48.controlled but, no, in Southampton, Labour has held, they won peak in

:54:49. > :54:57.2012, taking 11 seats, you can see, 43% share of the vote. If I show you

:54:58. > :55:03.the seats changes, nothing has happened. Nothing has happened. Does

:55:04. > :55:09.not look like a lot of movement. For Labour in the south, they will be

:55:10. > :55:16.pleased, one to declare, winning post of 25, the same story in

:55:17. > :55:20.Crawley. Vulnerable seat, vulnerable council, the most vulnerable Council

:55:21. > :55:24.of the night, one of a handful that they have in the south, once again

:55:25. > :55:27.Labour has held on here, increasing the majority, they now have a

:55:28. > :55:33.majority of three, you can see the chequered history of Tory and Labour