Part One

:00:08. > :00:15.In just a few moments, the polls will close and the counting in the

:00:16. > :00:19.2017 general election will get underway. Never before have there

:00:20. > :00:22.been so many close battles across Northern Ireland. Stay with us, we

:00:23. > :00:44.will bring you every result as it happens throughout the night.

:00:45. > :00:51.Hello, we are going to be on air until all those 18 seats are decided

:00:52. > :00:56.and until we get a full picture of what the next Westminster government

:00:57. > :01:00.will look like. Before that, at 10pm exactly, we will bring you the joint

:01:01. > :01:07.broadcasters exit poll which is conducted exclusively for the BBC,

:01:08. > :01:11.ITV and sky. It revealed the majority the experts did not see

:01:12. > :01:14.coming a couple of years ago. We will join our experts in their count

:01:15. > :01:19.centres and we will be hearing from the winners and losers of those

:01:20. > :01:23.knife edge battles. Not least here in Belfast were last time around,

:01:24. > :01:28.some of the tightest battles were fought. We will see how those seats

:01:29. > :01:32.will be resolved tonight. And our election hub is where I will be

:01:33. > :01:37.keeping track of the results during the night and analysing all the

:01:38. > :01:46.voting patterns with our resident expert, Nicholas White. Who is in

:01:47. > :01:48.and who is out, out in our virtual Westminster. We will be looking at

:01:49. > :01:52.the constituencies right across the UK, including the 18 here in

:01:53. > :01:56.Northern Ireland. Watch this space. And along with that analysis we will

:01:57. > :02:00.have reaction from our panel of pundits and politicians who will be

:02:01. > :02:04.keeping me company through the night. We have a few moments ago

:02:05. > :02:09.before the polls close, so let us have a quick word with Mark and

:02:10. > :02:13.Nicholas. Nicholas, it will be probably about 1am before we have

:02:14. > :02:17.any results but we do have some information on the turnout. We have

:02:18. > :02:20.been getting some figures from polling stations from about five

:02:21. > :02:26.o'clock and it looks like much the same elevated turnout that we had in

:02:27. > :02:32.March for the Assembly elections. Maybe slightly up on the 58% we had

:02:33. > :02:38.in the last Westminster election. Perhaps even mid-60s. Thank you for

:02:39. > :02:42.now. Of all the tide battles across Northern Ireland, Belfast is shaping

:02:43. > :02:47.up to have more than its fair share of them, Tara is there to keep an

:02:48. > :02:52.eye on how some of the big political beasts there tonight. Thank you. I

:02:53. > :02:57.am at the Titanic exhibition centre where all four Belfast

:02:58. > :03:00.constituencies will be decided. The polls in South, East, North and west

:03:01. > :03:03.close in a few moments time and all the ballot papers will be brought

:03:04. > :03:05.here and you can see the electoral staff are ready to start their big

:03:06. > :03:21.count of the evening. We will bring you the

:03:22. > :03:24.picture as it emerges, see who is looking happy, who is looking for

:03:25. > :03:28.the exit, we will be the first to tell you who are new MPs are and we

:03:29. > :03:30.will be the first to speak to them. Thank you very much. Here we are

:03:31. > :03:33.with just moments to go before the joint broadcasters exit poll is

:03:34. > :03:35.revealed. It is based on voters leaving selected polling stations in

:03:36. > :03:37.Britain and seeing how they would, it is not done in Northern Ireland

:03:38. > :03:40.because the particular pattern of electoral politics here makes it too

:03:41. > :03:49.difficult to include in the wider poll. Remember, David Cameron in

:03:50. > :03:53.2013 had a total of 336, a majority of 12 and as we hear the chimes of

:03:54. > :03:57.Big Ben in the seconds running up to ten o'clock, remember how accurate

:03:58. > :04:01.this poll was last time, despite many people not quite the baby that

:04:02. > :04:04.it initially. Theresa May called this election to increase her

:04:05. > :04:09.majority and we are going to find out any second if she was

:04:10. > :04:12.successful. Here, at exactly ten o'clock is what the exit poll

:04:13. > :04:15.predicts, the next Westminster government will look like. It is

:04:16. > :04:23.predicting Conservatives as the largest party. Let us see the seats.

:04:24. > :04:30.There you can see it, 314 for the Tories, 266 for a Labour and if that

:04:31. > :04:36.is correct, that is not good news for Theresa May. She had 330 seats

:04:37. > :04:41.last time around and that is a drop, according to this exit poll of 17

:04:42. > :04:47.seats and a rise for a Labour of 34 seats. That is a dramatic set of

:04:48. > :04:53.figures by any standard, let's go to our panel for their reaction. We

:04:54. > :04:56.have been joined by our political editor Mark Devenport. We should say

:04:57. > :05:00.that this comes with a health warning, it is simply a exit poll,

:05:01. > :05:06.not a single vote has been counted, but two years ago, this exit poll

:05:07. > :05:09.was spookily accurate. Yes and it was surprisingly because everyone

:05:10. > :05:14.then was talking about a hung Parliament and David Cameron pulled

:05:15. > :05:17.it off micro and he got the majority he was not necessarily expecting.

:05:18. > :05:23.This time around, if this proves accurate, the Conservatives with 314

:05:24. > :05:28.are falling short of the 326 MPs they would need to have an overall

:05:29. > :05:32.majority in Westminster. We cannot say anything about the breakdown of

:05:33. > :05:36.local results because the exit poll does not include Northern Ireland,

:05:37. > :05:40.but potentially MPs coming from here could find themselves very busy

:05:41. > :05:44.indeed, because we are looking at the Conservatives having to make up

:05:45. > :05:48.something in the region of ten or 12 seats and the reason I am being a

:05:49. > :05:51.bit vague about that is because of Sinn Fein not actually taking their

:05:52. > :05:56.seats, it brings the effective number that you need for a majority

:05:57. > :06:03.down to something in the region of 324. If that is the case, there are

:06:04. > :06:09.something like ten seats short and one party might have ten seats. It

:06:10. > :06:15.would mean that the DUP potentially is seriously play. The amazing thing

:06:16. > :06:20.about this is if we were to rerun the campaign in 2015 there was a lot

:06:21. > :06:24.of talk about the DUP having influence, we could be the power

:06:25. > :06:28.brokers in a hung Parliament, at the start of this campaign, Arlene

:06:29. > :06:33.Foster rolled that out. They never actually played this at that

:06:34. > :06:39.particular stage. It is looking like, if the exit poll was accurate

:06:40. > :06:44.that they could end up in play here. Even before we know one single

:06:45. > :06:49.result it is fascinating, Northern Ireland perspective. Mark, you will

:06:50. > :06:53.stay with us, that is good years, we have four other eager panellists and

:06:54. > :06:58.people's phones and iPads are making all sorts of noises, but I want to

:06:59. > :07:02.go to Christopher Stalford straightaway, the DBM late for South

:07:03. > :07:08.Belfast. We were talking before the exit poll was published and you were

:07:09. > :07:13.wondering ever would be a Conservative majority, 80 or 90,

:07:14. > :07:17.what is your reaction? I am astonished by the findings of the

:07:18. > :07:21.exit poll. From a personal level, I find it deeply distressing that so

:07:22. > :07:26.many of my fellow countrymen are prepared to vote for a party by

:07:27. > :07:29.someone who has a clear record of sympathy and support for not only

:07:30. > :07:35.the IRA but almost every enemy in this country has had over the course

:07:36. > :07:38.of the last 40 years. As you say, they are the normal caveats that,

:07:39. > :07:42.with polls they will have to see how the evening plays out but it is

:07:43. > :07:46.clear, if that is the pattern that is repeated, there has been a

:07:47. > :07:50.serious miscalculation on part of the Conservative Party in going to

:07:51. > :07:54.the country in this way. Because Theresa May called this snap

:07:55. > :07:57.election, she did not have to call it, she had to get dispensation or

:07:58. > :08:02.approval from the House of Commons to call it and the reason she called

:08:03. > :08:06.it was to remind people at home was to increase her majority, to help

:08:07. > :08:11.during those Brexit negotiations. She had a majority of 12, a working

:08:12. > :08:16.majority of 17 and this leaves her short by 12, if this is right, it

:08:17. > :08:21.has backfired spectacularly. That is absolutely correct. Her decision to

:08:22. > :08:26.call the early general election, if that poll is correct, has indeed

:08:27. > :08:29.fired spectacularly, but it was also our position as a party that it was

:08:30. > :08:33.important that people in Northern Ireland elected members of

:08:34. > :08:38.Parliament, not only from the DUP, but I would prefer if all 18 seats

:08:39. > :08:42.were held by the DUP but that is not an achievable goal right now. It is

:08:43. > :08:47.important that Northern Ireland is represented by members of Parliament

:08:48. > :08:51.who are prepared to go to Westminster and participate. You

:08:52. > :08:58.potentially are looking at a scenario, of being kingmakers. I do

:08:59. > :09:01.not think it is about being a keen maker or not, it is about the

:09:02. > :09:05.national interest and we are Unionist party and we care about the

:09:06. > :09:09.United Kingdom and the decisions that we would take would be based

:09:10. > :09:12.upon the national interest of the United Kingdom and that is the

:09:13. > :09:16.responsible thing to do. Any unionist or anyone who has elected

:09:17. > :09:23.to the House of Commons... You would use any leveraged that you had. You

:09:24. > :09:26.say that, but the thing that matters to me more than anything is the

:09:27. > :09:30.preservation of the United Kingdom and that is why I am involved in

:09:31. > :09:34.politics. The preservation of the union, of the four countries that

:09:35. > :09:41.make up the United Kingdom, I would not say that we would see England's

:09:42. > :09:45.weaknesses as Ulster's opportunity, we are one United Kingdom and we

:09:46. > :09:48.should govern and act in that sense and that is the view that I take.

:09:49. > :09:54.Thank you very much. You're going to stay with us. Let us hear from

:09:55. > :09:59.vanilla, we also have Alex Kane and Finola O'Connor and Wales have Danny

:10:00. > :10:05.Kennedy, I just want to hear from you first of all. Did you see that

:10:06. > :10:14.coming? I hoped for it. I am going to blow my veneer of impartiality

:10:15. > :10:20.right away. And it is respectable to be for this kind of result. It was

:10:21. > :10:24.amazing to watch Jeremy Corbyn defy the prognostication is all around

:10:25. > :10:28.from within his own party, most of the media, including the one left

:10:29. > :10:33.liberal voice, the Guardian who have been eating their words for the last

:10:34. > :10:38.week and a half, obviously sort of four seamers, because he fought a

:10:39. > :10:44.remarkably good fight. How did he do this? We were told if Jeremy Corbyn

:10:45. > :10:47.does better than people expect, it is because young people who really

:10:48. > :10:51.like Corbyn and what he represents will have bothered to turn out and

:10:52. > :10:55.vote. It is impossible to know if that is what has happened, but it is

:10:56. > :11:00.a there point that that is what may have happened. It is what it sounds

:11:01. > :11:04.like and if it has happened, that is enormously encouraging for politics

:11:05. > :11:07.in general and for Britain. I have been talking to young people in my

:11:08. > :11:11.family in London today who were praying that this would happen and

:11:12. > :11:15.we are -- Macklemore all out for dinner and some of them normally do

:11:16. > :11:18.not. Even though Corbyn has struggled to hold his party

:11:19. > :11:22.together, he did not have enough people to fill Shadow Cabinet posts.

:11:23. > :11:26.When it came to the bit, he turned out to be more disciplined than

:11:27. > :11:31.expected. I did not know he had the sense of humour, fun watching him

:11:32. > :11:35.with Jeremy Paxman who was extremely funny, playing Jeremy Paxman as a

:11:36. > :11:42.caricature of himself, Corbyn did very well and Theresa May was

:11:43. > :11:45.appalling. It is interesting, you will have read, as I did and I am

:11:46. > :11:48.sure many people have, this idea that the more people saw true --

:11:49. > :11:52.Theresa May during the campaign, the less they liked. The more they saw

:11:53. > :11:56.Jeremy Corbyn, the more they liked him. I think there is an element of

:11:57. > :12:00.that but one thing is clear and we have talked about this from about

:12:01. > :12:04.the second week into the campaign, that Theresa May and the

:12:05. > :12:10.Conservatives, ran a lamentably bad campaign. From day one, it was

:12:11. > :12:14.dreadful and it remained dreadful. A really important element here, after

:12:15. > :12:19.the relentless mocking of Jeremy Corbyn from everyone, for months on

:12:20. > :12:24.end, there was a feeling that she could just finish M off in one fell

:12:25. > :12:29.swoop. She had a long election campaign and suddenly people began

:12:30. > :12:34.to warm to this guy. Forget some of his policies, which are economically

:12:35. > :12:40.barking mad, none of that mattered. By comparing him against Theresa

:12:41. > :12:45.May, they found themselves going off her completely, and warming to him.

:12:46. > :12:50.Another element to bear in mind, are looking at something called buyer 's

:12:51. > :12:53.remorse? If this is even close, Theresa May called this election to

:12:54. > :12:59.get a mandate for her Brexit negotiations and that has gone. You

:13:00. > :13:04.have a House of Commons there, talking about 280 MPs who are

:13:05. > :13:08.against a hard Brexit, Brexit of any sort, she will have to deal with

:13:09. > :13:11.them and look at her backbenchers, I bet well over half of her

:13:12. > :13:17.parliamentary team coming back here will be solved this issue. Too early

:13:18. > :13:22.to say yet, but when you called for a mandate and you do not get it, I

:13:23. > :13:26.do not see how you survive. It is a very interesting situation. Just to

:13:27. > :13:32.read cap on what the joint broadcasters exit poll says, it is

:13:33. > :13:37.suggesting, it is simply an exit poll, it was accurate two years ago

:13:38. > :13:43.and it predicted the Conservative majority. It is saying that the

:13:44. > :13:52.Conservatives will have 314 seats, down 17 on 2015, Labour will have

:13:53. > :13:56.266, up 34, the SNP will have 34 seats, down 22 and the Liberal

:13:57. > :14:00.Democrats will have 14, that is up six. That exit poll does not include

:14:01. > :14:04.Northern Ireland because it is too complicated to factor in what is a

:14:05. > :14:09.poll that is designed effectively to tell us how the battle between the

:14:10. > :14:14.Tories and Labour will pan out. Last time around, it is interesting to

:14:15. > :14:20.look at this, the Conservative and Labour gap was 101 and it is now 48.

:14:21. > :14:23.Danny, what do you make of it? Theresa May calls an election to

:14:24. > :14:30.increase majority, she loses seats and she is now short by 12. Clearly

:14:31. > :14:36.if the exit polls are reflected in the result, there has to be an

:14:37. > :14:39.enormous health warning with it. The history of these particular polls is

:14:40. > :14:44.quite good, actually. It is an enormously bad result for the

:14:45. > :14:50.Conservative Party, for Theresa May and potentially also for the entire

:14:51. > :14:54.country. It will give more uncertainty, more political

:14:55. > :14:58.uncertainty at a time when we thought we had had enough political

:14:59. > :15:03.uncertainty with Brexit and the negotiations and the triggering of

:15:04. > :15:07.Article 50. Let me also remind Christer and the other members of

:15:08. > :15:11.the panel, the DUP are not potentially the only pro union party

:15:12. > :15:15.who are capable of influence in the new House of Commons and I very much

:15:16. > :15:21.hope that the Ulster Unionist Party will have a part to play in it. I

:15:22. > :15:26.think the campaign was too long. Seven and a half weeks, it was

:15:27. > :15:33.called a snap election, a snap election is three and a half weeks.

:15:34. > :15:39.I am reminded of Harold Wilson in 1970, who had gone into the election

:15:40. > :15:45.with a huge majority, had the expectation of repeating that

:15:46. > :15:51.victory and was beaten by Ted Heath. I think there are clear lessons

:15:52. > :15:54.here, but if that is to be the results, then we could not rule out

:15:55. > :16:03.a further early general election. Enter Could Theresa May hold on?

:16:04. > :16:06.There would be considerable amount of disquiet within the Conservative

:16:07. > :16:09.Party. There will be a body of opinion that might say - it was an

:16:10. > :16:12.unnecessary election. We had the Labour Party more or less where we

:16:13. > :16:17.wanted them. OK, she came out and said there was all this opposition.

:16:18. > :16:21.She had already pushed through the whole business of Article 50 TB, the

:16:22. > :16:26.Labour Party had not vetoed it. So she could have continued. So I think

:16:27. > :16:28.that there will be considerable disquiet within the rank of the

:16:29. > :16:33.Conservative Party if she has led them to an election this which she

:16:34. > :16:37.has made losses. Her performance has been a factor she has come over as

:16:38. > :16:42.being wooden in comparison to Jeremy Corbyn. One other point I should

:16:43. > :16:48.mention. The tumble in SNP votes is quite marked there. The prediction

:16:49. > :16:51.of them losing 22 seats. There was a feeling they couldn't possibly

:16:52. > :16:55.repeat the almost universal victory in Scotland they had two years ago.

:16:56. > :16:59.For them to tumble by that number I think is a surprise. It would be

:17:00. > :17:04.interesting to know who are they tumbling to. Is there a Labour

:17:05. > :17:07.comeback in Scotland? Because a lot of the publicity we saw about the

:17:08. > :17:10.election in Scotland was that it was the Conservatives pushing them. If

:17:11. > :17:13.the Conservatives made gains at the expense of the SNP where else are

:17:14. > :17:18.are they losing? They haven't been able to make enough gains. That is

:17:19. > :17:21.the kind of detail we just don't know the answer to at this stage. I

:17:22. > :17:27.suppose, as the evening unfolds, we will get a better idea.s That maybe

:17:28. > :17:30.also, that finding maybe does deserve us repeating the health

:17:31. > :17:34.warning. Nobody had been predicting that. The question is if that detail

:17:35. > :17:40.proves inaccurate, what else does here. Interesting situation. It is

:17:41. > :17:44.only an exit poll. Thank you for your thoughts. I will come back in a

:17:45. > :17:50.moment or two. Before we go any further at this stage. It's timely

:17:51. > :17:54.to hear from Tara, who is at the Titanic Centre for us keeping an eye

:17:55. > :17:58.particularly on the four Belfast seats. I'm sure the results of that

:17:59. > :18:02.exit poll will have raised a few eyebrows down there, Tara? Yes,

:18:03. > :18:07.absolutely. News of that really just filtering through here, Mark.

:18:08. > :18:12.Obviously, we have tight races here in East Belfast, two-horse race. A

:18:13. > :18:15.two-horse race in North Belfast. South Belfast, pretty tight. Could

:18:16. > :18:21.be four winners by some judgment. With me is the Alliance Party

:18:22. > :18:25.candidate, Paula Bradshaw. Is that how you are look at it tonight, one

:18:26. > :18:29.in four chance? We see it as a one in three. In terms of where the

:18:30. > :18:37.votes will come from I think it's a race to about 9,000, 9,200. So our

:18:38. > :18:41.game in this campaign has been about squeezing the centre ground to add

:18:42. > :18:44.to our vote we obtained in How has the March. Campaign gone? It's gone

:18:45. > :18:49.very well. We had a positive message. We are very much pushing

:18:50. > :18:52.for our first cross-community MP in South Belfast. People are resonating

:18:53. > :18:57.with that, it's a shared constituency now. People are like, I

:18:58. > :19:01.think it's time. Brexit was an Irishual for some. For others it was

:19:02. > :19:05.about what's happening with education and health. In many ways

:19:06. > :19:11.it's been a useful exercise getting around the doors and speaking to the

:19:12. > :19:14.constituents. We had talk about packs the Alliance Party said no

:19:15. > :19:18.right at the start. You were leafletting people in South Belfast

:19:19. > :19:23.looking for Green Party votes, is that not a pack? We weren't looking

:19:24. > :19:26.for the party to come behind us we were looking for their voters to

:19:27. > :19:31.come behind us. Is that not the same thing? I don't think. We were

:19:32. > :19:35.looking for people tactically. I was the only progress who could win. I

:19:36. > :19:39.would share similar views with the green candidate. It's about

:19:40. > :19:43.consolidating a coalition ever votes in the progressive centre ground. In

:19:44. > :19:47.the election time you do what you have to get out and get people

:19:48. > :19:51.motivated to come out. The problem with Alliance in the past feem feel

:19:52. > :19:54.we can't win. This time our vote has gone up over recent elections we

:19:55. > :19:58.have been able to demonstrate to feem people we can win. Hopefully,

:19:59. > :20:02.they will have turned out today to support us. What about those exit

:20:03. > :20:06.poll results? It's just an exit poll, looking not such good news for

:20:07. > :20:09.Theresa May Well I think it's not going to be very good news then for

:20:10. > :20:12.us in Northern Ireland in terms of trying to get devolution back up and

:20:13. > :20:17.running. I'm very much concerned about how the next few weeks for

:20:18. > :20:20.ourselves. They will be very much preoccupied with what is going on in

:20:21. > :20:24.Westminster. We need attention here, some support to get the talks back

:20:25. > :20:30.up and running and to get devolution up and running. If you were elected,

:20:31. > :20:33.if Naomi Long was elected, what would the Alliance do in the

:20:34. > :20:36.situation of a hung parliament? Similar to what Naomi did the last

:20:37. > :20:40.time, we would sit on the opposition benches. We would not be there

:20:41. > :20:43.trying to align maybe who would expect us to sit with the Lib Dems.

:20:44. > :20:49.That would not be the case. We would vote along our manifesto

:20:50. > :20:52.pledges and our core alliance principles on any tough decision

:20:53. > :20:56.that is come up. We will talk to you later in the evening. Also here

:20:57. > :21:01.tonight is the former First Minister, Peter Robinson. We spoke

:21:02. > :21:05.to him just as he came in. The Dup stance on Brexit might eat into his

:21:06. > :21:10.vote and see Naomi Long take the seat? Well, I would hardly think so.

:21:11. > :21:14.If he gets all of the votes from people who voted for Brexit, he will

:21:15. > :21:19.win the seat, easily. I don't think that will be the issue. The issue in

:21:20. > :21:25.this election is one that relates to the Union. I think unionists have

:21:26. > :21:29.recognised that Sinn Fein and the SDLP are pushing for a border poll

:21:30. > :21:31.and a united Ireland. They need a response from the unionist

:21:32. > :21:36.community. I'm trusting they will get that today. Do you think Arlene

:21:37. > :21:41.Foster is the right leader for the Dup? Of course she is. She's a good

:21:42. > :21:47.leader. She's doing well. She has my full support and encouragement. Mr

:21:48. > :21:52.Robinson, thank you. Peter Robinson there looking very sun tanned and

:21:53. > :21:57.relaxed. I spoke to him briefly and said, is that what leaving politics

:21:58. > :22:02.does for you? Is you look relaxed not a care in the world? He said he

:22:03. > :22:10.didn't get the sun tan in Belfast. Lots of news coming here throughout

:22:11. > :22:15.the night we expect the first result possibly around 1.00am. Mark. Yes.

:22:16. > :22:20.Tara thank you very much indeed. Interesting to get that initial

:22:21. > :22:24.picture down there at the Titanic Exhibition Centre where the four

:22:25. > :22:27.Belfast counts are taking place through the wee small hours. We are

:22:28. > :22:38.not really expecting any results here, certainly not this side of

:22:39. > :22:44.midnight, maybe 1.00am maybe 1.30am. We have Christopher, Danny, and

:22:45. > :22:48.Clare. I will ask you for your response to that joint broadcaster's

:22:49. > :22:53.exit poll which is a surprise. I think it's fair to say? For most

:22:54. > :22:57.people? I think all the different versions everybody used. It's early

:22:58. > :23:01.days yet and a long night ahead. It's surprising. I think you know,

:23:02. > :23:05.it's been an interesting campaign in terms of Theresa May, strong and

:23:06. > :23:17.stable, showing herself to be a mediocre leader at very best. People

:23:18. > :23:21.will see her going for a stronger mandate for a ridiculous Brexit. We

:23:22. > :23:24.need to balance this and make it absolutely clear. Why it is a bad

:23:25. > :23:29.result for Theresa May and much better for Jeremy Corbyn than many

:23:30. > :23:34.people had expected, he's absolutely nowhere near being able to form an

:23:35. > :23:37.administration either? Absolutely. It's highly unlikely the numbers

:23:38. > :23:42.will play out exactly as they did. The 18 here very likely might come

:23:43. > :23:45.into play in some way. It's not a Labour Government. The interesting

:23:46. > :23:50.thing about Jeremy Corbyn, for me, one, I'm sad that if he had of put

:23:51. > :23:55.that campaigning advert into the referendum last June we might not be

:23:56. > :23:58.here. Clearly, he has proven to be a better campaigner than people maybe

:23:59. > :24:03.anticipated. If those numbers play out, as they are, it looks like a

:24:04. > :24:07.messy few weeks. Do you think, if this is right, is this people

:24:08. > :24:11.rallying to the flag of Jeremy Corbyn or is it people saying -

:24:12. > :24:17.actually, the more I see of Theresa May, I don't really fancy what's on

:24:18. > :24:20.offer? There's not one issue that inwiths each way or changes an

:24:21. > :24:24.election. People weigh it up. The more people saw of Theresa May I

:24:25. > :24:30.think the more inept she looked. Changing policies, failing to stand

:24:31. > :24:34.over things. Clearly, not... Calling an election about Brexit and saying

:24:35. > :24:37.nothing about Brexit and having no strategy for Brexit. I don't think

:24:38. > :24:42.it's necessarily people rallying to Corbyn. I think he has proven

:24:43. > :24:45.himself to be voter-friendly and attractive than his own party would

:24:46. > :24:50.have thought a few moments ago. We are looking at pictures of

:24:51. > :24:56.candidates and supporters arriving at some of the various count

:24:57. > :25:04.centres. Will you have seen John O'Dowd in previous wick tours. Sir

:25:05. > :25:07.Geoffrey Donaldson, pinning his rosette to his lapel. Did you have

:25:08. > :25:13.one of those on today, Christopher? I did. I can put it op if you want.

:25:14. > :25:16.It's in my coat outside. It's soggy. Doesn't make a difference at this

:25:17. > :25:22.point? In terms of what Clare said. I think there is one issue that can

:25:23. > :25:27.be traced to Theresa May's misfortunes. It's called social

:25:28. > :25:33.care. How did they make a mistake like that? It defies belief. You are

:25:34. > :25:38.a Conservative Prime Minister, a key constituent of your coalition that

:25:39. > :25:42.elects Conservative governments is older voters. The only conclusion

:25:43. > :25:47.that I can come to was that they thought they were so far -

:25:48. > :25:54.Arrogance. Is that what it was I think it was arrogance. They thought

:25:55. > :25:58.they were so far in front they could land it on people. Some polls were

:25:59. > :26:01.suggesting they were 20 points between Conservatives and Labour?

:26:02. > :26:06.Lynton Crosby is not the genius people thought he was? Generally,

:26:07. > :26:13.people talked up as election geniuses come a cropper. Predictions

:26:14. > :26:17.that Romney was going to win the presidency. I shared it. I came a

:26:18. > :26:23.cropper. People who have a reputation for being able to swing

:26:24. > :26:26.elections. It defied belief that the Conservative Party should have

:26:27. > :26:30.embraced that social care policy. I think that that, they never

:26:31. > :26:33.recovered from that. They never - they put themselves on the wrong

:26:34. > :26:38.side of a key element of their coalition that helps them to win

:26:39. > :26:49.elections. Yes. Was it the mistake of that policy or was it the gee

:26:50. > :26:56.news whoever called it the dementia tax. The second point. Jeremy

:26:57. > :27:02.Corbyn's entire political career has been attending deo after demo. He is

:27:03. > :27:06.a campaign. He is an accomplished campaigner.

:27:07. > :27:11.He speaks at public rallies in the same way that Theresa May speaks at

:27:12. > :27:16.the dispatch box in the House of Commons. Demos and campaigning suit

:27:17. > :27:19.Corbyn. I think Theresa May is more a creature of study and Government.

:27:20. > :27:23.There has been times during this election she has come across as

:27:24. > :27:27.uncomfortable in her own Let us not skin. Go into the superficial too

:27:28. > :27:36.fast. Christopher is quick on his feet. Immensely distressed a while

:27:37. > :27:40.ago. He is explaining explaining why it's

:27:41. > :27:45.gone wrong. I called it wrong snoochl you were distressed your

:27:46. > :27:51.countrymen? Prepared to vote for an IRA supporter. That is a form of

:27:52. > :27:57.distress. Anyone that looks at Jeremy Corbyn's record, if Jeremy

:27:58. > :28:02.Corbyn had wanted to pursue a united Ireland through constitutional means

:28:03. > :28:05.he could have hooked up with SDLP as other parliamentarians - We

:28:06. > :28:10.rehearsed that during the campaign. He said he was part of the process

:28:11. > :28:18.bringing Sinn Fein - Do you believe it? It's not a matter - Your own

:28:19. > :28:22.party shows ambivalence about paramilitaries they might associate

:28:23. > :28:26.with, whether it's during their reign or not. It's hype critical. I

:28:27. > :28:30.think Jeremy Corbyn made the wrong call there. I think it does make me

:28:31. > :28:33.raise an eyebrow about him. I don't think that was the dominant issue

:28:34. > :28:40.for many people. To get back to the flaws of the svsh campaign. Briefly.

:28:41. > :28:46.I want to get out and about. It was utterly propostous that the notion

:28:47. > :28:48.that Conservatives could go into Labour-held seats with sizeable

:28:49. > :28:53.majorities and expect to overturn those given that Corbyn and his

:28:54. > :28:58.views and the traditional Labour campaign was always going to appeal

:28:59. > :29:03.to the traditional Labour voter. That flaw, whoever thought of it, or

:29:04. > :29:06.dreamed of it, started this election campaign very badly for Theresa May

:29:07. > :29:15.and so it continued. OK. Alex, a sentence. I will come back to you, I

:29:16. > :29:18.promise. Remember this battle was an ideological battle. People rally to

:29:19. > :29:22.that. It was interesting. It was different from some of the elections

:29:23. > :29:25.we saw, general elections we saw fought most recently. Thank you very

:29:26. > :29:29.much. We are here for the long-haul we will hear more from you over the

:29:30. > :29:36.course of the next few hours. I want to go to Omagh Leisure Centre and

:29:37. > :29:39.hear from our report Julian Fowler, down there for the Fermanagh South

:29:40. > :29:43.Tyrone vote. It will be very tight. That is the predictions have always

:29:44. > :29:51.been. Are you picking up anything, any straws in the wind at this early

:29:52. > :29:57.stage? Well, Tom Elliott proved the pundit wrong two years ago when he

:29:58. > :30:05.took the seat with a majority of 530. Helped of course by that

:30:06. > :30:09.unionist pact. The DUP and TUV stood aside this year. If you look at the

:30:10. > :30:15.results from the Assembly election in March, the combined unionist vote

:30:16. > :30:21.is around 400 ahead of the Sinn Fein on first preferences. The SDLP have

:30:22. > :30:26.polled poorly in recent Westminster elections. Michelle Gildernew has

:30:27. > :30:31.appealed directly to SDLP supporters asking them to lend her their vote

:30:32. > :30:36.in this election. So, as you say, it's always a tight contest in

:30:37. > :30:42.Fermanagh south Tyrone. Don't rule out the possibility of the dreaded

:30:43. > :30:48.word recount. I've lost count of how many times we have had those over

:30:49. > :30:53.the years. Fermanagh has one of the highest turnout and topping the poll

:30:54. > :31:01.for poxy votes and postal ballots issued. If it's a two-horse race in

:31:02. > :31:07.Fermanagh and South Tyrone. A one horse contest in West Tie row. Pat

:31:08. > :31:08.Doherty has retired. A new runner and rider this year whoo is set to

:31:09. > :31:21.top the I wondered if you think the Brexit

:31:22. > :31:29.issue has come into play. Tom Elliott was resolutely pro-Brexit,

:31:30. > :31:35.Fermanagh and South Tyrone was as Remain constituency. Brexit is a big

:31:36. > :31:38.issue and Tom Elliott took a long time, he really procrastinated over

:31:39. > :31:45.which side of the fence he would come down on in the referendum. He

:31:46. > :31:49.voted to leave. He said it was important to have representation in

:31:50. > :31:52.Westminster during the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. Michelle

:31:53. > :31:56.Gildernew, it has been a big issue for her on the doorsteps and she

:31:57. > :32:01.says it does not matter if she were to win and not take her seat, she

:32:02. > :32:05.said what was important was providing a strong voice against

:32:06. > :32:13.Brexit. About will no doubt have an impact on the result. Good to hear

:32:14. > :32:20.from you. Julian Fowler in Omagh. West Tyrone, no doubt that that will

:32:21. > :32:24.go to Barry McElduff, one would have thought. Fermanagh and South Tyrone,

:32:25. > :32:28.difficult to call. Fionnuala, if you had to call it, how would you call

:32:29. > :32:37.it? I think I would see Sinn Fein taking it. I could be completely

:32:38. > :32:43.wrong. You have a 50 - 50 chance. You think that is the direction of

:32:44. > :32:49.travel. Yes. I did notice that Nicholas White said he thought this

:32:50. > :32:52.Sinn Fein search based on turnout, he did not predict it definitely,

:32:53. > :33:00.but he was certainly suggesting that was possible. Just looking at some

:33:01. > :33:06.votes in Belfast East tumbling out of the ballot boxes. That is a very

:33:07. > :33:11.good view of the Titanic Exhibition Centre. More votes tumbling out onto

:33:12. > :33:16.the table is there. Alex, do you fancy spending the night of

:33:17. > :33:22.verifying and counting votes? It is hard work and they are there for the

:33:23. > :33:26.long haul and so are we. All the people around this table will know

:33:27. > :33:30.this, it is one of the most boring things to stand and watch but also

:33:31. > :33:35.one of the most fascinating and it is also the one place where you will

:33:36. > :33:39.stand getting inaccurate figures and predictions. The number of times I

:33:40. > :33:44.have been to, Alliance are getting this, DUP are getting their. In your

:33:45. > :33:49.previous life, you probably have been standing around the table,

:33:50. > :33:58.telling little stories, spinning little stories. When the counting is

:33:59. > :34:05.going on, you can tell by our faces, the reality. Tallying has got more

:34:06. > :34:10.sophisticated. There are number crunchers and nerds in every party

:34:11. > :34:18.and usually get an accurate prediction on the STV vote. There

:34:19. > :34:21.are 60 boxes per constituency and the turnouts are all different, you

:34:22. > :34:30.can tell nothing, it is all straws in the wind. Let us hear from

:34:31. > :34:34.another reporter, Conor McAuley is at the icon centre. You have four

:34:35. > :34:41.constituencies counting there. Talk us through what the highs and lows

:34:42. > :34:47.are likely to be. There are four constituencies here, upper bound,

:34:48. > :34:51.Lagan Valley, South Down and Newry and Armagh. Jeffrey Donaldson is

:34:52. > :34:58.defending a majority, he has arrived. The first Lagan Valley

:34:59. > :35:02.boxes have been opened. In Newry and Armagh, Mickey Brady for Sinn Fein

:35:03. > :35:06.is almost certain to be elected. In Upper Bann, it will be interesting

:35:07. > :35:13.to see how Doug Beattie does. David Simpson is the incumbent MP. If the

:35:14. > :35:17.Unionist vote was split, was there a possibility that John O'Dowd could

:35:18. > :35:23.come through and make a credible bid for that seat? South Down, in the

:35:24. > :35:27.bottom left-hand corner of the hall, that is the one where there is going

:35:28. > :35:31.to be a lot of interest. That has been an SDLP seat for 30 years but

:35:32. > :35:35.Margaret Ritchie is under significant pressure from Chris

:35:36. > :35:38.Hazzard from Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein has thrown the kitchen sink at dead

:35:39. > :35:44.and they are coming into this election on the back of a very

:35:45. > :35:48.strong Assembly showing where they polled more than 6000 first

:35:49. > :35:52.preferences more than the SDLP. Margaret Ritchie has traditionally

:35:53. > :35:56.relied on Unionist votes but those Unionist parties have been told that

:35:57. > :35:59.Bagram voters have been told to vote for the union. If they do not vote

:36:00. > :36:02.tactically, then Margaret Ritchie could struggle to get the votes that

:36:03. > :36:09.she needs and she could be vulnerable here. You have got two

:36:10. > :36:13.constituencies that are pretty easily predicted, we are not

:36:14. > :36:17.expecting any big surprises in Newry and are and Lagan Valley, but South

:36:18. > :36:25.Down and Upper Bann are fascinating. Tell us a bit about the Eikon

:36:26. > :36:28.centre, it is a new venue for election counting, it looks

:36:29. > :36:32.impressive, it is part of the Balmoral Show redevelopment, isn't

:36:33. > :36:37.it? That is right. I am used to being here as an agriculture

:36:38. > :36:40.correspondent. It is the home of the Balmoral Show and normally this

:36:41. > :36:48.places bill of stalls but now it is full of counters and candidates.

:36:49. > :36:51.There are some good facilities. There is a decent coffee dark and

:36:52. > :37:04.people seem to be pretty pleased with the move. Not bad single.

:37:05. > :37:12.Bagram it is early days. We will talk to you later. Conor Macauley

:37:13. > :37:15.who is showing his versatility, he is our agriculture correspondent,

:37:16. > :37:25.but he is also our man on the ground there. Fionnuala, South Down and

:37:26. > :37:30.Upper Bann are interesting. They are very interesting. Margaret Ritchie,

:37:31. > :37:34.I would think, is pretty vulnerable. In fact, I was talking earlier to

:37:35. > :37:41.someone who is normally a good reader of those things and he said

:37:42. > :37:48.she was in big trouble. Upper Bann, I would bow to Danny Kennedy, I was

:37:49. > :37:57.trying to seek out his view, looking to see if his eyebrows went up when

:37:58. > :38:04.you sell it Doug Beattie. Upper Bann, do you think that Doug Beattie

:38:05. > :38:09.can shade it over David Simpson? I think he could shade it. I have not

:38:10. > :38:13.been particularly close to the campaign this time, but Doug Beattie

:38:14. > :38:22.has put in a lot of hard work. He comes across very well, both through

:38:23. > :38:26.the media and on the doors. You push forward as a strong candidate and

:38:27. > :38:32.would you say he is up against a weak opponent and David Simpson? I

:38:33. > :38:36.am not making any comment about other party 's candidates, I simply

:38:37. > :38:41.said that Doug Beattie would make a first-class member of Parliament for

:38:42. > :38:46.Upper Bann and I would hope that is the outcome tonight. It is difficult

:38:47. > :38:52.to beat an incumbent. That is the trend of Westminster elections. I

:38:53. > :38:57.think, we have to caution that. I think Doug Beattie has put in

:38:58. > :39:02.enormously hard work and has been very well regarded on the doors.

:39:03. > :39:05.What do you reckon, Christopher Stalford, David Simson, maybe one of

:39:06. > :39:08.your less high-profile members of Parliament, I think that is

:39:09. > :39:12.reasonable enough to say, do you think he will have been caught out

:39:13. > :39:18.or slightly different -- but the disadvantage by that alleged

:39:19. > :39:24.printing mistake over his election literature that said he had visited

:39:25. > :39:32.soldiers in Afghanistan? He visited soldiers in Iraq. I do not think he

:39:33. > :39:40.was Mourne more courtyard than the Ulster Unionist candidate was caught

:39:41. > :39:44.out any more than. You need to proof read. You can provide something ten

:39:45. > :39:51.times and eventually a mistake will still get through. In terms of

:39:52. > :39:55.profile, perhaps it is right to say that in the regional news, David

:39:56. > :40:00.does not have a big profile, but certainly in Upper Bann, he has an

:40:01. > :40:03.excellent profile as a first class constituency member of Parliament.

:40:04. > :40:08.One of the things that I have learned and I am sure Clare Ambani

:40:09. > :40:12.and others have learned, that the important thing is to work on the

:40:13. > :40:15.ground for your constituents and David has a strong reputation in

:40:16. > :40:22.that regard. In the last Assembly election, the DUP did very well

:40:23. > :40:26.there in Upper Bann and if the result is anywhere like the same as

:40:27. > :40:30.it was in the Assembly election, I would be confident that David would

:40:31. > :40:35.retain his seat and I hope that is the case. How do you read it, do you

:40:36. > :40:41.think it will be as tight as some commentators have predicted? After

:40:42. > :40:45.the exit poll, I am reluctant to say anything. I think David Simpson will

:40:46. > :40:50.hold the seat, while Doug Beattie is an excellent candidate, for a

:40:51. > :40:55.traditional wing of the party, particularly in summer like Upper

:40:56. > :41:00.Bann, his views on abortion and same-sex marriage, I think they may

:41:01. > :41:05.not play particularly well. People who might be disposed to the UUP, I

:41:06. > :41:10.think they will in enough numbers shift. It is a battle between

:41:11. > :41:14.liberal and traditional unionism. You can have that battle in

:41:15. > :41:19.summerlike South Antrim, where there is no chance of Unionist losing a

:41:20. > :41:23.seat but in summer like Upper Bann, you rally to the union is most

:41:24. > :41:28.likely to win and particularly after the March election, Unionist will be

:41:29. > :41:34.all about ensuring that the gap grows between the DUP and Sinn Fein.

:41:35. > :41:38.I want to ask Claire about that, do you think in South Down that

:41:39. > :41:44.Margaret Ritchie can hold on. If you look at the figures, there was 6500

:41:45. > :41:55.in it in March. Certainly she was up against it. Margaret is a grafter.

:41:56. > :41:59.In a multi-seat constituency, she has got a good work record and

:42:00. > :42:04.support across the constituency. She campaigned on the fact that it could

:42:05. > :42:09.be tied, we will need every vote and people dismissed... Do you think she

:42:10. > :42:16.was foolish, in 2015, she said that she won the seat without any votes

:42:17. > :42:20.being lent to us? Was that hasty? The thought has always been that she

:42:21. > :42:27.is dependent on Unionist transfers. I had not heard that. I think that

:42:28. > :42:33.attracting votes from all different backgrounds is a good thing and it

:42:34. > :42:36.is republicanism in one respect, I do not think people should be

:42:37. > :42:41.consistent -- dismissive of candidates attracting votes across

:42:42. > :42:45.communities. No one has the DAT to know exactly what the background is

:42:46. > :42:49.of every single person who cast a vote. I think it is an asset that

:42:50. > :42:52.you can get votes across the community and I think many people

:42:53. > :42:56.will rally because of her work record and because of the impact

:42:57. > :43:01.that things like Brexit, but if we are heading into any sort of a hung

:43:02. > :43:04.Parliament situation, then what Margaret and the SDLP campaigned on

:43:05. > :43:08.on the basis of vote counting will have been borne out, whether or not

:43:09. > :43:13.they are there to hold it. I will come back to you all in a moment. It

:43:14. > :43:20.seems an appropriate moment to cross over to our results have an hear

:43:21. > :43:23.from Mark Devenport who is joint by our number cruncher in chief,

:43:24. > :43:28.Nicholas White, and both of them have had more thoughts on what that

:43:29. > :43:33.Joint Broadcasters Exit Poll is suggesting, the overall picture

:43:34. > :43:36.might be. Thank you. Whilst I was given you my initial reaction,

:43:37. > :43:41.Nicholas was mulling over it. Let us look at the exit poll. We can bring

:43:42. > :43:47.it up behind us. Rather than repeating the numbers, we will look

:43:48. > :43:50.at the implications. James Brokenshire, the Northern Ireland

:43:51. > :43:54.Secretary has been quoted as saying it is far too early to draw

:43:55. > :44:01.conclusions, we have to put in all the usual caveats. He would say

:44:02. > :44:07.that. He could find himself quite busy, potentially, in terms of

:44:08. > :44:11.community -- like communicating with our local parties. It is a very easy

:44:12. > :44:15.bit of mathematics, theoretically you need 326 seats for an overall

:44:16. > :44:21.majority, there will be at least four Sinn Fein which will bring the

:44:22. > :44:27.number down. That leaves a gap of nine or ten to fill and we are

:44:28. > :44:30.looking at nine or ten unionists in there. Inevitably, that would have a

:44:31. > :44:35.knock-on effect, because a few things and to get going immediately,

:44:36. > :44:38.talks on restoring devolution and the Brexit negotiations and yet some

:44:39. > :44:42.of these politicians will find themselves double booked. They

:44:43. > :44:46.certainly are and we have seen one crazy bit of speculation that

:44:47. > :44:50.perhaps the Conservatives would concede the post to the DUP for

:44:51. > :44:54.Secretary of State. That seems unlikely. Do you think it is much

:44:55. > :44:58.more likely if we did get into that scenario that we would be talking

:44:59. > :45:02.about some sort of confidence and supply arrangement, which is not a

:45:03. > :45:08.formal Coalition, but were you ask for certain policy initiatives that

:45:09. > :45:12.you want to see put in place? The DUP have some very specific

:45:13. > :45:18.requests, keeping the triple lock on pensions, the winter fuel allowance,

:45:19. > :45:21.abolishing the 84 Northern Ireland businesses, these are all things

:45:22. > :45:25.that a minority Conservative government can concede freely and

:45:26. > :45:29.expect support for. In the DUP manifesto they talked about any

:45:30. > :45:32.return to devolution, having to factor it through whether it

:45:33. > :45:36.strengthen the union or not, do you think this might affect them and

:45:37. > :45:37.maybe push them more towards Westminster and more towards direct

:45:38. > :45:45.role? Their aim will be to restore

:45:46. > :45:50.storement in some way. It's not clear they will be emboldened to

:45:51. > :45:52.make further compromises than the negotiations at that rate. What

:45:53. > :45:57.really matters is an agreement between he the Dup and Sinn Fein if

:45:58. > :46:01.this election result strengthens both of them that may not bode well

:46:02. > :46:07.for reaching an agreement. The at rry ma particular is altered by Sinn

:46:08. > :46:11.Fein. The 650 MPs overall, you have to get to 326, but if there are some

:46:12. > :46:16.MPs absent that brings down the figure. Of course, we may see a

:46:17. > :46:21.welter of speculation across the water as to whether Sinn Fein will

:46:22. > :46:24.change their position in terms of abstentionism and ride to Jeremy

:46:25. > :46:28.Corbyn's aid. Would you bet on it? I would not. The people who make the

:46:29. > :46:33.speculations tend to be people who have never met anybody from Sinn

:46:34. > :46:36.Fein in their lives. The name of the party gives you the answer to the

:46:37. > :46:41.question. The party was founded on that principle. That is why it was

:46:42. > :46:45.set up in 1908 I can't see how they would change their policy now. A

:46:46. > :46:50.final point about the SNP, a tumble for them. 22 seats down. Yes. Do you

:46:51. > :46:54.think that is really likely? It looks very bizarre. Also, reading

:46:55. > :46:58.between the lines, it looks like the 22 seats may have mainly gone to the

:46:59. > :47:00.Conservatives. That offsets the Conservative losses elsewhere to

:47:01. > :47:06.Labour and to the Liberal Democrats. We see Labour up 34ened, the Liberal

:47:07. > :47:12.Democrats up six. That's up 40 seats overall. Conservatives down 17.

:47:13. > :47:17.That's 22 SNP and one Ukip, who have disappeared completely. So it looks

:47:18. > :47:21.to me like we're really speculating on maybe a relatively small sample

:47:22. > :47:25.of Scottish voters producing a result that wasn't forecast in any

:47:26. > :47:30.of the opinion polls. Then again, if we had no surprises, we wouldn't be

:47:31. > :47:35.sitting here. OK. It will be a night of surprises, no doubt. Mark, I

:47:36. > :47:44.think you will hear from the Ulster unionists. Back to you. Thank you

:47:45. > :47:48.very much. Robin Swann join us from Ballymena. Good evening to you? Good

:47:49. > :47:52.evening, Mark. Early days, I talk about the local picture in a moment

:47:53. > :47:56.or two. If you don't mind I want to ask your reaction to the joint

:47:57. > :47:59.broadcasters exit poll which is suggesting things might not have

:48:00. > :48:03.gone the way Theresa May was hoping. Are you surprised by what you've

:48:04. > :48:08.heard, I presume you have heard? Well, I have heard, Mark. I suppose,

:48:09. > :48:14.taking into consideration of the exit polls and accuracies at this

:48:15. > :48:17.minute in time, it would be a blow to Theresa May considering where she

:48:18. > :48:21.started six weeks ago. There will be a lot of internal questions being

:48:22. > :48:27.asked in parties across GB tonight. I think the most interesting one is

:48:28. > :48:30.where the Conservative Party and the SNP are coming up, especially in

:48:31. > :48:36.Scotland, where those seat changes are actually happening. Yeah. Have

:48:37. > :48:39.you heard anything at all - we were discussing it earlier, Mark

:48:40. > :48:44.Devenport made that very point. Where have those 22 seats that this

:48:45. > :48:48.poll suggests the SNP may have lost, where have they gone to? Have they

:48:49. > :48:50.gone to Labour or the Conservatives? If they have gone to the

:48:51. > :48:54.Conservatives, what does that mean for other seats in England? It's a

:48:55. > :48:57.complicated position. Are you picking up anything at all from

:48:58. > :49:01.Scotland from anybody you have been chatting to? . I will be honest, I

:49:02. > :49:07.have been in North Antrim. This is the first discussion I've had on the

:49:08. > :49:11.national picture. If the SNP are losing seats to the Conservative

:49:12. > :49:14.Party, that would seem to be the indication. That seems the

:49:15. > :49:19.Conservative Party are suffering major losses across England. It's a

:49:20. > :49:23.surprise considering where they started off four, five, six weeks

:49:24. > :49:27.ago. That is the only conclusion you can reach at this stage. It's only

:49:28. > :49:30.an exit poll. We haven't a single vote counted in anger at this stage.

:49:31. > :49:36.Worth making the point while this comes with a health warning, it was

:49:37. > :49:40.very accurate two years ago. What about the picture - I'm getting

:49:41. > :49:44.cross feed. I can't pick you up at all. Can you hear me more if I ask

:49:45. > :49:49.you about the local situation? I'm wondering... Picking you up. What

:49:50. > :49:54.are you hearing about some of your big names like Tom Elliott and Danny

:49:55. > :50:02.Kinahan. Are you positive they can hold on. Are you positive that Doug

:50:03. > :50:05.Beattie can can take that seat in Upper Bann? We don't have the exit

:50:06. > :50:11.polls to work that out from. One of the things I did today was actually

:50:12. > :50:16.take time to get out around each of our candidates running. There was a

:50:17. > :50:20.good vibe out round any of the candidates. They fought good,

:50:21. > :50:25.positive campaigns. We are hopeful tonight for good positive results.

:50:26. > :50:28.Less hope that turns into Ulster Unionist seats as well. What we are

:50:29. > :50:32.seeing if the national polls are going to be so tight, 18 Northern

:50:33. > :50:38.Ireland seats are going to make a difference and this is where the

:50:39. > :50:43.continual point I have been making through our local campaign is those

:50:44. > :50:47.absentee MPs for Northern Ireland are weakening our hand seriously.

:50:48. > :50:52.You would absolutely hate a situation, wouldn't you, as the new

:50:53. > :50:58.leader of the Ulster Unionist Party to have unionist seats counting for

:50:59. > :51:02.so much in a very tight situation perhaps your opponents in the Dup

:51:03. > :51:07.being kingmakers at Westminster. Mark, I'm sorry. I'm getting

:51:08. > :51:12.directors in my ear. I can't pick you up at all. Sorry. We will come

:51:13. > :51:15.back to you. Sorry about that. There is some confusion on the old

:51:16. > :51:18.talkback system. Whatever is happening at your end. If you can't

:51:19. > :51:23.hear me, you can't answer my question, I suppose. I will come to

:51:24. > :51:27.the pan Nel a moment or two. Tara is at Titanic Exhibition Centre.

:51:28. > :51:30.Hopefully, she can hear me saying hello? Mark, I can hear you saying

:51:31. > :51:35.hello. I can hear you loud and clear. That's good news. The boxes

:51:36. > :51:38.are opening, the counting has started. Lots of pretty nervous

:51:39. > :51:41.faces around here in Titanic Exhibition Centre where the four

:51:42. > :51:46.Belfast constituencies will be decided. Let us talk to a couple of

:51:47. > :51:52.the candidates. Someone who has some views on all of this. Martin, I will

:51:53. > :51:56.start with you, SDLP candidate for Network Rail bell hast fast. How do

:51:57. > :52:00.you think think it's gone? Exit polls have been showing what we have

:52:01. > :52:04.been rahmatullahi alai we are in the area of a hung Parliament. Every

:52:05. > :52:08.vote and seat here counts than we thought it would previously. We are

:52:09. > :52:12.very confident we will return three MPs. Three MPs that will vote

:52:13. > :52:17.against the Conservatives and hopefully vote for a strong

:52:18. > :52:23.Labour-led Government. You are the SDLP press officers as well as the

:52:24. > :52:29.candidate in North Belfast. You are looking at the bigger picture. How

:52:30. > :52:33.you think you faired in North Belfast? Tighter than we predicted a

:52:34. > :52:38.few weeks ago. One of the seats that determines the makeup of a future

:52:39. > :52:44.Parliament. North Belfast is obviously a constituency that voted

:52:45. > :52:50.remain, a pro-Brexit MP. We will see how that worked in the final shake

:52:51. > :52:55.down. It's difficult to get a firm say of how things are going. We are

:52:56. > :53:00.confident we will have done well. You got 400 votes in 2010, you are

:53:01. > :53:05.hoping to improve on that. How many do you think you managed to gather

:53:06. > :53:09.up. It's a difficult fight for you given it's Nigel Dodds? Two big

:53:10. > :53:13.beasts of politics. We had a number of debates. I faired fairly well in

:53:14. > :53:17.the debates that happened. It's very difficult to #3reat this stage.

:53:18. > :53:22.Obviously, I got 403 votes last time. A number etched on my memory.

:53:23. > :53:25.Hopefully we can improve on that a little bit. We are looking at

:53:26. > :53:32.substantially more than that this time. You denied you were a paper

:53:33. > :53:38.candidate. Do you not think it really did send out a message from

:53:39. > :53:44.the SDLP it wasn't somebody better known? I don't think. The SDLP don't

:53:45. > :53:48.do paper candidates I don't do paper campaigns. Hopefully more votes this

:53:49. > :53:53.time. Nicola had heretic circumstances she had given birth to

:53:54. > :53:56.a baby girl to add to her previous little girl. Very particular

:53:57. > :53:59.circumstances there. I'm happy to have stood forward for the SDLP in

:54:00. > :54:03.that constituency. A constituency where it looked like the choice was

:54:04. > :54:09.between a Brexiteer or someone who wouldn't take their seat. Very happy

:54:10. > :54:13.and browed proud to say that I'll stand against the Conservatives and

:54:14. > :54:16.Theresa May in the final shake down. We should say hello to Nicola. Is

:54:17. > :54:20.she here tonight or at home watching? . She's at home looking

:54:21. > :54:24.after her daughter. I couldn't drag her out. Nicola gave birth on the

:54:25. > :54:28.Sunday and on the Monday she had phoned me to say this is where the

:54:29. > :54:34.canvassing needs to be. This is where the posters need to be. She

:54:35. > :54:38.has given a Trojan effort in North Belfast even though she was a

:54:39. > :54:42.candidate. I can give her one night off with the kids. Some people said

:54:43. > :54:45.it's a four-horse race. You are not one of the four. Do you feel

:54:46. > :54:51.confidence about it, is there any cans? I think the buzz around South

:54:52. > :54:56.Belfast has been fantastic today. Out around the polling stations

:54:57. > :54:59.up-and-down the Lisburn Road and Omagh Road. People saying they have

:55:00. > :55:03.cast their vote for you. Election day is very exciting anyway. We are

:55:04. > :55:07.hearing we are getting a lot of votes. As Martin said, the boxes

:55:08. > :55:11.haven't been tallied yet. It's hard to get a sense of where they are

:55:12. > :55:15.going. Yes, South Belfast I think will be one of the tightest fought

:55:16. > :55:18.seats here in Northern Ireland. So it would be foolish to say that, you

:55:19. > :55:24.know, to put my predictions right up there. I certainly think that we

:55:25. > :55:28.brought new voters in and kept our voters excited. We have to wait and

:55:29. > :55:33.see how it goes. It's going to be a tight one. What about the issue of

:55:34. > :55:43.pacts then? Obviously, Paula Bradshaw we asked her about that

:55:44. > :55:47.request. How do you feel about that? Electioneering. Everybody wants as

:55:48. > :55:52.many votes as they can get. We have to ask everybody to vote Green

:55:53. > :55:57.instead. We get votes from across the board. It's not that we target

:55:58. > :56:01.one party for votes. We get floating voters as well. Swing voters. I

:56:02. > :56:05.think from all the parties that will be standing we will be able to take

:56:06. > :56:09.votes from some of those parties, all of them. I think it's just

:56:10. > :56:12.electioneering and good luck to them. I think you will usually find

:56:13. > :56:16.if you have a Green voter they will stay with the Greens. What about the

:56:17. > :56:20.national picture. What do you make of the exit poll, are you surprised?

:56:21. > :56:25.Very surprised. I wasn't expecting it to be such a dramatic exit poll.

:56:26. > :56:28.I'm nervous as well. We have seen exit polls coming through before

:56:29. > :56:31.that have made their predictions and the actual results have turned out

:56:32. > :56:35.very different. I'm thinking about the last general election in

:56:36. > :56:40.particular. So I will wait to see. But, yep, very excited to see what's

:56:41. > :56:43.going to happen. A hung Parliament and the possibility of another

:56:44. > :56:47.election being called if a Government is not formed. It doesn't

:56:48. > :56:52.fill me with glee. No more elections no. More elections. More elections.

:56:53. > :56:56.It's been dramatic, certainly. Alan, give us as flavour of the seats. If

:56:57. > :57:01.we look at South, we have been talking to Clare. How is it going to

:57:02. > :57:06.go? It's the cliche, too close to call? Basically, Alistair McDonnell

:57:07. > :57:12.would have less than a quarter of the votes. Four candidates who stand

:57:13. > :57:16.a chance and will get at least 15, 18% of the vote. A few hundred votes

:57:17. > :57:20.will make a big difference. Clare might not be in the running. Her

:57:21. > :57:23.votes could have put somebody else in and could have changed the whole

:57:24. > :57:33.thing around. Do you think they should have had a pact South Belfast

:57:34. > :57:37.between Green and Alliance. I don't like pacts. It's good for parties,

:57:38. > :57:42.particularly smaller one, to put themselves out there. Don't let the

:57:43. > :57:46.voters learn bad habits of voting for somebody else and then say, vote

:57:47. > :57:49.for me. It's important small parties keep going, no matter what you vote

:57:50. > :57:53.for me. People will be tactical. South Belfast is one of many

:57:54. > :57:59.constituencies where there will be tactical voting, South Down,

:58:00. > :58:03.Fermanagh South Tyrone. Will there be less tactical voting in South

:58:04. > :58:10.Belfast because it's less of of a two horse race. It could go either

:58:11. > :58:14.way. People might not necessarily go for Alasdair McDonnell who went for

:58:15. > :58:19.him before? We might find out, give a couple of hours. We might see the

:58:20. > :58:25.Ulster Unionists have a low poll and a lot of those votes have been lent

:58:26. > :58:29.to the DUP that Emma gets over. Make sure Sinn Fein don't get too close.

:58:30. > :58:33.This is the opportunity after the last Assembly election to put a big

:58:34. > :58:37.gap in place. The Dup were pushing for votes. Michael Henderson did

:58:38. > :58:42.surprisingly well in the Assembly elections. People weren't predicting

:58:43. > :58:47.that. A strong personal vote in South Belfast. 50 votes swung the

:58:48. > :58:52.last two seats in South Belfast at the Assembly. We Werritty a long

:58:53. > :58:56.time waiting for Clare to get in. It's quite, very tight when it comes

:58:57. > :59:03.to STV. First-past-the-post it will be blunter. Different story

:59:04. > :59:12.altogether, isn't it? What about East then, the Robinson and Long. Do

:59:13. > :59:18.you think she can get more this time? I would stick my neck out and

:59:19. > :59:22.say I doubt Naomi Long will get the seat. It's safe for Gavin. I haven't

:59:23. > :59:29.seen any tallies thchl is based on the speculation. I would imagine

:59:30. > :59:33.that actually, some of the Alliance voters would not want Naomi to go to

:59:34. > :59:38.Westminster as leader. That would perhaps hurt turnout. Gavin, his

:59:39. > :59:44.speech was well remembered from two years ago. Actually, people have

:59:45. > :59:46.forgotten about that. He has been a reasonable straight-forward MP. No

:59:47. > :59:53.scandal. No particular things that people talk about. I think he will

:59:54. > :59:58.do quite well. It will be hard work. It will be a remarkable victory if

:59:59. > :00:03.Naomi was to take that seat. What about the UDA factor in all of this

:00:04. > :00:06.and the LCC statement in Can East Belfast in particular. Will that

:00:07. > :00:11.have swayed anybody's decision either way? Will there be Alliance

:00:12. > :01:13.voters who won't vote who will say, don't tell me what to

:01:14. > :01:19.She will be out her account in Maidenhead. A great deal of shock

:01:20. > :01:24.and surprise at these figures. There is a big health warning over those

:01:25. > :01:28.figures, they are just projections. George Osborne said that if this

:01:29. > :01:32.poll turns out to be correct, then it is catastrophic for Theresa May

:01:33. > :01:38.and he basically said he did not think she could possibly survive as

:01:39. > :01:44.leader. Privately, Labour are saying that this is good news for them,

:01:45. > :01:47.obviously to put on 30 seats but it takes us into unchartered territory

:01:48. > :01:52.and it will be seen as the gamble that did not pay off for Theresa May

:01:53. > :01:57.of these figures are true. Did not take George Osborne long, did it? It

:01:58. > :02:02.didn't take him long at all, long runs the Fox clearly and he has been

:02:03. > :02:06.very critical of the way the Conservatives ran this campaign,

:02:07. > :02:08.very critical of the way Theresa May has handled things since he stopped

:02:09. > :02:21.being an MP and clearly he thinks that if

:02:22. > :02:24.these figures are true and obviously there is a health warning attached,

:02:25. > :02:26.he does not think Theresa May can survive as Prime Minister. What

:02:27. > :02:29.about Jeremy Corbyn, he is even further away from being able to form

:02:30. > :02:32.an administration but up 34 seats according to this exit poll, a

:02:33. > :02:36.remarkable result if it turns out to be anything like that, given what

:02:37. > :02:41.the polls were saying four are five weeks ago. Absolutely right.

:02:42. > :02:45.Remember, go back to April and Theresa May was 24 points ahead and

:02:46. > :02:48.she looked at that and thought, let's go for this election and

:02:49. > :02:54.comeback with a thumping majority. If these figures are true, it is

:02:55. > :02:57.nowhere near the prediction work before. A lot of people are critical

:02:58. > :03:00.of Jeremy Corbyn but if you look at him, even if you put your political

:03:01. > :03:04.bias to one side, you would say he has been a redoubtable figure, he

:03:05. > :03:08.has enjoyed the campaign and looked as though he has enjoyed himself and

:03:09. > :03:13.he stood up to a lot of the attacks and if he has put on 30 seats, then

:03:14. > :03:20.people will see it as a triumph from a Labour point of view. You are over

:03:21. > :03:25.and back to Westminster on a regular basis, what is your reading, at this

:03:26. > :03:28.very early stage of the implications of those figures for the Northern

:03:29. > :03:34.Ireland parties, particularly the DUP if it comes back with eight or

:03:35. > :03:40.nine seats and Theresa May is 12 seats short of a majority? The first

:03:41. > :03:47.thing I would say is we have to be very cautious. Very, very cautious.

:03:48. > :03:49.This is an exit poll, albeit many thousands of people were surveyed.

:03:50. > :03:53.Exit polls have been wrong before and we will have to wait and see how

:03:54. > :03:58.the night develops, but clearly if these figures are correct and if we

:03:59. > :04:02.are close to that and the DUP comeback with eight or nine MPs,

:04:03. > :04:06.then clearly they are going to be central figures. We know that there

:04:07. > :04:11.are close associations between the DUP and the Conservative Party, many

:04:12. > :04:15.DUP MPs have been in there and been at receptions, there are close bonds

:04:16. > :04:18.on a personal level, clearly if those figures are correct, then the

:04:19. > :04:26.Conservatives would be reaching out to parties like the DUP. It is an

:04:27. > :04:28.exit poll and we do have to be very careful at this stage. Stephen,

:04:29. > :04:34.thank you very much indeed. A nice tight, by the way. Stephen Walker

:04:35. > :04:40.joining us from outside Number 10. Thank you for joining us on our

:04:41. > :04:44.special results programme here on BBC One Northern Ireland. One hour

:04:45. > :04:48.ago we gave you the results of the Joint Broadcasters Exit Poll, it was

:04:49. > :04:52.a great surprise to everyone around the table here and I suspect to

:04:53. > :04:56.everyone at home as well. There are the numbers, just to confirm, the

:04:57. > :05:02.Conservatives, according to this exit poll, which comes with a health

:05:03. > :05:15.warning sitting on 314, that would be down 17 on David Cameron's result

:05:16. > :05:18.in 2015. Labour there with 266, up 34, and very good result for Jeremy

:05:19. > :05:20.Corbyn given that the poll said just a few weeks ago that there were 20

:05:21. > :05:24.percentage points between the Tories and Labour. A bad night for Nicola

:05:25. > :05:30.Sturgeon and the SNP if these turn out to be correct, down from 56 to

:05:31. > :05:36.34. The Liberal Democrats, not bad, up six but a far cry from where they

:05:37. > :05:41.were when Nick Clegg was in charge. You can see it has just gone 11

:05:42. > :05:46.o'clock book is the clocks on our set our live and telling you the

:05:47. > :05:51.actual time, you might have noticed that if you have an eagle eye. You

:05:52. > :05:57.can see the Queen Elizabeth Tower in Westminster, home to Big Ben,

:05:58. > :06:00.telling us the time, exactly two minutes past 11 and I want to

:06:01. > :06:11.welcome two new members to my panel here.

:06:12. > :06:18.Welcome to both of you. You have been doing your numbers over the

:06:19. > :06:22.last hour or thereabouts, what do you make of this, you're not kicking

:06:23. > :06:26.yourself are you, that it is so tight and a you win seats tonight,

:06:27. > :06:32.your representatives are not going to be there, making mayhem in the

:06:33. > :06:35.mother of all Parliaments? We will have active MPs whether they take

:06:36. > :06:40.their seats or not. I think they will have influence on the issues

:06:41. > :06:44.that matter. I was surprised with the discourse around there's been a

:06:45. > :06:49.huge surprise around Jeremy Corbyn. I think if you followed the campaign

:06:50. > :06:52.and the politics of the campaign, particularly in the closing stages,

:06:53. > :06:57.it does not necessarily come is that big of a surprise. I do not think it

:06:58. > :07:01.Jeremy Corbyn has closed the gap because he enjoyed the campaign, I

:07:02. > :07:05.think you close the gap because his politics and message has resonated

:07:06. > :07:10.with a lot of people. He has won the first seat, we have had the first

:07:11. > :07:20.declaration, Labour hold Newcastle Central. He is off the mark first.

:07:21. > :07:23.There will be no huge surprise that he has managed to hold onto that

:07:24. > :07:28.seat. 649 more to go. At least we're off the mark. That is good news and

:07:29. > :07:33.Jeremy Corbyn has taken the first scalp of the night. It is not those

:07:34. > :07:36.of the seats that we are particularly interested in, it is

:07:37. > :07:41.the swing seats and the trends across the whole of the country that

:07:42. > :07:46.make it so fascinating. Stephen, you are known as the number cruncher of

:07:47. > :07:49.note, what do you make of those numbers? I am sure there is some

:07:50. > :07:56.controversy in the north-east of England. Newcastle has declared

:07:57. > :08:01.before Sunderland. I saw whole thing about Newcastle, they were

:08:02. > :08:04.rehearsing it, no expense spared for how they were going to be first

:08:05. > :08:10.game. There will be a stewards enquiry. The one thing I would say

:08:11. > :08:13.about the exit poll, last time around, people were sceptical and

:08:14. > :08:19.more or less proved to be right bar a few seats here were the

:08:20. > :08:25.Conservatives were slightly under. The exit poll will have a margin of

:08:26. > :08:29.error. The figures are suggesting that tight knife edge where the

:08:30. > :08:33.Conservatives presumably with the DUP on the supply and confidence

:08:34. > :08:38.bases just about having a majority against virtually everyone else. Of

:08:39. > :08:44.course, other friends might come into play, but I do respect their

:08:45. > :08:49.long standing position. In practice the exit poll will swing one way or

:08:50. > :08:52.another and may be that the Conservative Party may just squeak a

:08:53. > :08:58.small majority are equally the Conservatives plus there are DUP

:08:59. > :09:03.friends fall short of a majority, in which case we into complete chaos, I

:09:04. > :09:06.would expect, unless there can be a rainbow Coalition put together on

:09:07. > :09:15.the other side of the fence. We are equally seeing, we are seeing a

:09:16. > :09:19.greater fragmentation. This time around we have seen a massive

:09:20. > :09:25.consolidation between two large parties and even the SNP now gaining

:09:26. > :09:30.a voice in the House of Commons. That will influence dynamics. All of

:09:31. > :09:34.those scenarios are very difficult in terms of effective government.

:09:35. > :09:40.You're talking about the situation... It was hard enough...

:09:41. > :09:43.It was certainly difficult as far as the Tories were concerned pitting a

:09:44. > :09:46.government together with the Lib Dems, we saw what a challenge that

:09:47. > :09:50.was, it has not been particularly easy for the Tories and that is why

:09:51. > :09:53.Theresa May has gone further snap election and she has made the

:09:54. > :09:58.situation from her perspective worse rather than better. Stable

:09:59. > :10:11.government is arguably more important than ever. From my own

:10:12. > :10:16.point of view, I am very much opposed to what she wanted to do

:10:17. > :10:21.around Brexit and that may now be in question. You would say that.

:10:22. > :10:26.Absolutely. Jeremy Corbyn himself has taken the position where he is

:10:27. > :10:29.determined to do Brexit. Do you think he will be kicking himself

:10:30. > :10:33.because he did not foresee this situation developing and he has gone

:10:34. > :10:39.along with their for as his natural instinct was to oppose Brexit? We

:10:40. > :10:43.never know. Certainly within the Labour Party, there was opposition.

:10:44. > :10:48.I take your point, Christopher, it was not absolutely clear. The Labour

:10:49. > :10:52.position is about trying to remain part of the single market and a

:10:53. > :10:56.customs union. There might be something in that, were a more

:10:57. > :11:01.realistic approach to negotiations may take place with the UK getting a

:11:02. > :11:05.softer Brexit than originally intended. Whatever way this played

:11:06. > :11:08.out, there was going to be a very hard reckoning because when

:11:09. > :11:14.negotiations are properly, what the UK once on paper was never something

:11:15. > :11:18.that could be delivered. If the result in reality, in 24 hours turns

:11:19. > :11:22.out to be anything like this, Theresa May is under enormous

:11:23. > :11:26.pressure, knives are going to be out before breakfast time. The

:11:27. > :11:28.Conservative Party has this wonderful instinct for

:11:29. > :11:33.self-preservation and they can be ruthless when their leaders fail to

:11:34. > :11:47.deliver. Danny. The Alliance Party can be like that too. Careful,

:11:48. > :11:52.Danny, very, careful! If Mark Devenport or Nicholas White can

:11:53. > :11:58.explain the discrepancies that there is, there are 646 seats allocated in

:11:59. > :12:05.the exit poll, 650 seats, presumably we are looking at two Plaid Cymru,

:12:06. > :12:12.one Green Party and a Speaker, is that too simplistic to assess,

:12:13. > :12:18.because as it is, the combined Labour, SNP and Lib Dem makes it a

:12:19. > :12:22.dead heat with the Conservatives. I have got the detailed figures, Plaid

:12:23. > :12:27.Cymru have three on the page that I have in front of me, the Green Party

:12:28. > :12:33.have won, Ukip do not have any, others are 18, that would be the

:12:34. > :12:37.Northern Ireland seats,... If that helps you exactly. They must be

:12:38. > :12:40.counting the Speaker as a Conservative lobby which is not

:12:41. > :12:46.correct. We know there is a difference. Because it is an exit

:12:47. > :12:49.poll, you do not want to get down to the final say, there was a majority

:12:50. > :12:53.of 12 last time around which was a working majority of 17 and you have

:12:54. > :12:57.got to take the Speaker into it and abstention is Sinn Fein MPs and we

:12:58. > :13:03.do not know the result for sure. There is a little margin of error

:13:04. > :13:08.within it, it is whatever about that. They accept the broad point

:13:09. > :13:15.that it is pretty dramatic stuff. It is very interesting. Claire. I was

:13:16. > :13:22.doing the same mathematics. I think it is three that you have to get to

:13:23. > :13:26.to get a majority. If you look at 314 and potentially the DUP coming

:13:27. > :13:31.out with eight or nine, it gets them very close, if you take out the

:13:32. > :13:42.Speaker and the abstention is. In a house of 650, it is 326. 649. If

:13:43. > :13:47.these are true, that vote early, vote often could apply to this year.

:13:48. > :13:53.It could be difficult for anyone to govern with those numbers. For the

:13:54. > :13:57.Conservatives to not be able to afford one last voter, to give the

:13:58. > :14:01.DUP whatever they want and for any rainbow Coalition to meet all the

:14:02. > :14:08.needs would be very difficult. I think there is right, people in

:14:09. > :14:12.Northern Ireland will not want to hear this, but I suspect we will

:14:13. > :14:18.have another general election within the next 12 months. After the

:14:19. > :14:22.Assembly election. Do not put away your posters, candidates! It is hard

:14:23. > :14:28.to see a circumstance where that does not happen. It is early days.

:14:29. > :14:33.It brings you back to the glaring political impact here, are fact is

:14:34. > :14:37.that Theresa May called this election to try and strengthen her

:14:38. > :14:41.mandate. We were led to believe she was a great strategist and a great

:14:42. > :14:47.political leader, she was strong and stable and this is where she has

:14:48. > :14:51.found herself. Wanted the hugely ironic if Theresa May is able to

:14:52. > :14:54.hang on by the shortest of a thread simply because of Sinn Fein

:14:55. > :15:02.abstention is an? I do not think that will be the case. We all know

:15:03. > :15:07.it is early doors. I do not think it will factor at all. If it did come

:15:08. > :15:14.down to it, there is not about to be any conversion on the part of your

:15:15. > :15:19.party? It will not happen. We need to consider that part of the reason,

:15:20. > :15:24.one of the basic reason is Sinn Fein MPs are elected is because they

:15:25. > :15:36.abstain. We are mandated to not take our seats.

:15:37. > :15:44.You abstain from the Police Board and came back to them. It's if, if

:15:45. > :15:48.you can present - prevent damage to the NHS or prevent the hardness of a

:15:49. > :15:51.Brexit would it be something you could consider when you could make a

:15:52. > :15:54.meaningful difference for people's lives.

:15:55. > :15:58.You could improve people's quality of lives by doing it. Those

:15:59. > :16:02.principles like abstaining from those two parliament's I mentioned,

:16:03. > :16:06.you found your way around them eventually As the Lib Dems what

:16:07. > :16:19.impact they had as minority parties in the last Government or ask even

:16:20. > :16:24.in the last Dale the Greens had. Somebody from Sinn Fein teeting

:16:25. > :16:30.earlier... Because they abstain. Was that. Did you tweet that? Somebody

:16:31. > :16:33.from Sinn Fein tweeted, Sinn Fein MPs are elected because they

:16:34. > :16:40.abstain. Was that you? It wassen today. That was possibly yesterday.

:16:41. > :16:48.That goes back to what I said yesterday. Those who vote for Sinn

:16:49. > :16:53.Fein know what they are getting. Given that Sinn Fein's position has

:16:54. > :16:57.changed in other parliaments down the years. Slightly different when

:16:58. > :17:02.you are an Irish Republican. Slightly different. I don't see a

:17:03. > :17:08.change. You abstain because it's set up by an Act of the UK Parliament. I

:17:09. > :17:12.don't want a family feud. I do think there's an important point. I wasn't

:17:13. > :17:16.party to this element of the talks that was taking place before this

:17:17. > :17:22.election with us called. My understanding is that there was, we

:17:23. > :17:29.were close to an agreed position on issues relating to the UK's exit

:17:30. > :17:35.from the European Union. There was from all parties close to an agreed

:17:36. > :17:39.position. Agreed negotiating framework. There was a fair degree

:17:40. > :17:44.of difference between the parties. There was certainly a narrowing. A

:17:45. > :17:47.narrowing of the ground. Yeah. That means, if... We don't know what the

:17:48. > :17:52.composition of the next Government is going to be. We have, most of us

:17:53. > :17:56.at this table, had a mandate to form a Government here in Belfast to get

:17:57. > :17:58.on with the issues particularly relating to the circumstances

:17:59. > :18:03.surrounding the UK's exit from the European Union. I think people

:18:04. > :18:08.expect, particularly in this time of uncertainty, expect that we're going

:18:09. > :18:12.to do that. Sammy Wilson in East Belfast in a second - East Antrim.

:18:13. > :18:18.Before I do that. I want to show you pictures of another seat that is

:18:19. > :18:27.being declared, the Labour candidate in Sunderland. Didn't get in there

:18:28. > :18:33.first, as far as... Yeah, 11.10pm. Central was 11.101. Houghton and

:18:34. > :18:39.Sunderland South nine minutes later at 11.10pm. Safe Labour seat. Jeremy

:18:40. > :18:46.Corbyn, no surprises. A rush of - A sign of the times. Sunderland were

:18:47. > :18:49.relegated from the Premiership and Newcastle went up. You are reading a

:18:50. > :18:53.lot into it. Jeremy Corbyn has two at this stage. We are only getting

:18:54. > :18:57.started, aren't we? We have the engine ticking over. Let's hear from

:18:58. > :19:03.Sammy Wilson who is hoping to hold on to his seat for the Dup in East

:19:04. > :19:08.Antrim at the Valley Leisure Centre. Mr Wilson, evening to you. Good to

:19:09. > :19:14.see you? Evening, Mark. How are you? Are you feeling confident? Well,

:19:15. > :19:19.Mark, we've had five weeks of going round the doors in East Antrim. I've

:19:20. > :19:24.been round polling stations all day today and people have been

:19:25. > :19:30.volunteering as they are going in and out to tell me how they have

:19:31. > :19:34.been voting. I will be very confident we will hold on to the

:19:35. > :19:40.seat and increase the vote. Can I ask you what you make of the

:19:41. > :19:46.national picture if the exit poll turns out to be anything like

:19:47. > :19:48.suggesting at this stage. Major miscalculations on the part of

:19:49. > :19:53.Theresa May to call that snap election. When that first came

:19:54. > :19:57.through, were you surprised First of all, I'm always very sceptical of

:19:58. > :20:01.polls because it's been wrong so many times. Indeed exit polls have

:20:02. > :20:04.been wrong as well. They were wrong at the last election they didn't

:20:05. > :20:10.predict that David Cameron was going to get the majority that he got and,

:20:11. > :20:17.therefore, I think it has to be taken with a dose of salt and a big

:20:18. > :20:19.dose of salt at that. He this were pretty accurate. They made a

:20:20. > :20:23.suggestion that was very different to what a lot of the earlier polls

:20:24. > :20:27.during the campaign had been suggesting. Whatever about it

:20:28. > :20:31.anyway, it is what it is. If it turns out to be right, do you accept

:20:32. > :20:37.it makes Westminster a fascinating place to be for however long the

:20:38. > :20:43.next Parliament might survive? Yes, it certainly will. Of course, one

:20:44. > :20:47.has to remember that whilst the exit poll is showing that the

:20:48. > :20:51.Conservatives may not have an overall majority, it also shows

:20:52. > :20:55.that, on the opposition side, there will be huge from aing meantation

:20:56. > :20:58.with the Labour Party, the Scottish nationalist, the we will

:20:59. > :21:02.nationalists, Greens and parties from Northern Ireland. So it doesn't

:21:03. > :21:07.necessarily follow that the Government will be facing a combined

:21:08. > :21:12.opposition which was all singing from the same hymn sheet. That, I

:21:13. > :21:17.suppose, is one comfort to the Prime Minister. Though I think she

:21:18. > :21:22.probably must be kicking herself now when she had a comfortable majority,

:21:23. > :21:26.she was winning all of the crucial votes in the House of Commons. She

:21:27. > :21:32.took a gamble because she was so far ahead of the Labour Party and it

:21:33. > :21:36.would appear anyhow that that might -- that gamble may not be working

:21:37. > :21:41.out as she'd anticipated. To come back to the Valley Leisure Centre.

:21:42. > :21:45.You are pretty confident that you will be returned come foribly in

:21:46. > :21:49.East Antrim. I'm wondering what you are hearing about South Antrim where

:21:50. > :21:53.your party colleague Paul Girvan is hoping to take the seat of the

:21:54. > :21:57.Ulster Unionist Party's Danny Kinahan. Have you been speaking to

:21:58. > :22:00.Mr Girvan this evening? I haven't been speaking to Paul. I was

:22:01. > :22:06.speaking to some of his polling agents. They are certainly showing

:22:07. > :22:13.that there is a very strong performance by Paul. But, there are

:22:14. > :22:18.so few boxes being opened yet Mark. It can be easily sqewed. In my own

:22:19. > :22:22.constituency, if you look it on the basis of the boxes which have been

:22:23. > :22:27.opened I would be getting a vote which is probably about 50% more

:22:28. > :22:30.than we would normally expect. But that's because the boxes which have

:22:31. > :22:44.been opened are the ones which are closest to the Valley Leisure Centre

:22:45. > :23:05.and in an area which would be very good for me. You'd love that, Sammy,

:23:06. > :23:05.wouldn't you? You can't read too. Into this at the moment. Of course I

:23:06. > :23:06.would love it. No politician would turn that down! There's many things

:23:07. > :23:07.you would love, Mark, but you never get them. Them. Maybe we will talk

:23:08. > :23:08.to you later. Thank you very much in the meantime. Enjoy your evening.

:23:09. > :23:08.Thanks. I hope you have lots of coffee. We will speak to you later,

:23:09. > :23:09.Sammy. Thank you very much. We can go to Ciaran. Two constituencies

:23:10. > :23:10.being counted, Foyle and East Londonderry. A lot of busy people

:23:11. > :23:18.behind you. How is it shaping up so far? Mark, the Foyle Arena is a hive

:23:19. > :23:24.of activity. The first boxes came through the door after 10.00pm the

:23:25. > :23:27.count got underway 10.10pm. It's continuing a pace now at the moment.

:23:28. > :23:31.No problems so far We expect the first results in the early hours of

:23:32. > :23:37.this morning. Two constituencies, as you've said, East Londonderry and

:23:38. > :23:40.Foyle. Over in East Londonderry Gregory Campbell, the veteran Dup MP

:23:41. > :23:45.is the incumbent. He should romp home. Had' got an 8,000 majority.

:23:46. > :23:51.The battle going on here tonight will be in the Foyle constituency.

:23:52. > :23:58.As we know, the former SDLP leader June human took this seat in 1983

:23:59. > :24:03.and built it into Fortress Foyle and his longstanding aid Mark Durkan

:24:04. > :24:08.took over that seat in 2005 and had healthy majorities in the last two

:24:09. > :24:12.Westminster elections. In the recent Assembly elections it was really a

:24:13. > :24:17.stunning result for Sinn Fein who, for the first time ever, made

:24:18. > :24:21.history in out polling the SDLP by something like 2,000 odd votes. It

:24:22. > :24:26.means it's all to play for here in Foyle. I think the word from Sinn

:24:27. > :24:31.Fein is that they have fought a very good campaign. They've got their

:24:32. > :24:34.vote out and they're confident they will do pretty well. Whether they

:24:35. > :24:39.will take the seat or not remains to be seen.

:24:40. > :24:42.You can't compare both elections, I suppose, our pundits will tell us

:24:43. > :24:45.that all the time. They are two different types of

:24:46. > :24:48.electionings, Assembly and Westminster elections. A couple of

:24:49. > :24:52.factors at play. Mark Durkan has a huge personal vote and will there be

:24:53. > :24:57.tactical unionist voting as well? It's all to play for in Foyle and

:24:58. > :25:02.East Londonderry is pretty clear-cut, Gregory Campbell. OK. We

:25:03. > :25:05.are interested in both of those. East Londonderry straight-forward.

:25:06. > :25:08.Foyle, fascinating could come down to the wire. Thank you very much

:25:09. > :25:20.indeed. We will talk to you again before too long. Two counts there,

:25:21. > :25:23.North Antrim and Mid Ulster. Sarah, no huge surprises expected in either

:25:24. > :25:28.of those, it's fair to say? No, Mark. We are certainly not expecting

:25:29. > :25:34.political earthquakes in Ballymena tonight. North Antrim, first of all,

:25:35. > :25:40.long considered Dup heartland. The former Dup leader, Ian Paisley, held

:25:41. > :25:47.that seat in 1972, his son has held it since 2010. He is now seeking his

:25:48. > :25:53.third term. In 2015 he had a majority of 11,000. Very difficult

:25:54. > :25:59.to see who could unseat him. I know you were speaking to the new UUP

:26:00. > :26:04.leader, Robin Swann it will be interesting to see how his party

:26:05. > :26:11.gets on, the TUV standing here. Not the leader Jim Allister,es who has

:26:12. > :26:16.stood in the past. Either of those parties unlikely to make a dent in

:26:17. > :26:22.that Dup stronghold vote. To Mid Ulster another seemingly safe seat,

:26:23. > :26:28.this time for Sinn Fein and Molloy. Sinn Fein will be looking to cement

:26:29. > :26:32.their grip on a seat they have had for 20 years. The late Martin

:26:33. > :26:41.McGuinness had a seat in Mid Ulster and Michelle O'Neill, this is her

:26:42. > :26:46.home constituency. Back in 2015, he had a majority of 13,000. Looking

:26:47. > :26:50.like a safe seat. We are not expecting anything in North ant rim

:26:51. > :26:55.or Mid Ulster other than the status quo at this stage. Thank you very

:26:56. > :27:03.much for joining us. Let us come back to my panel. Foyle, for a

:27:04. > :27:13.moment or two. It's a battle royal for the nationalist vote. I will

:27:14. > :27:18.take that one. Will you? Whatever. You are no crack What is your

:27:19. > :27:21.tonight. Reading of that situation? Ciaran telling us your colleagues on

:27:22. > :27:24.the ground saying you have done your best. You've put your best foot

:27:25. > :27:30.forward, but we will see what happens. Do you think realistically,

:27:31. > :27:33.even though there were more Sinn Fein votes than SDLP votes in the

:27:34. > :27:38.most recent Assembly election, this is a different scenario and Mark

:27:39. > :27:43.Durkan - it's hard to unseat the incumbent? I accept it's a different

:27:44. > :27:49.election. If elections were fought and won by social media, Alicia

:27:50. > :28:01.would have had it in the bag this afternoon. She he has tuned into a

:28:02. > :28:04.new voters. She's a former Mayor, a young mother and accomplished

:28:05. > :28:07.figure. She fought a brilliant and energised campaign. It's, I will

:28:08. > :28:12.give you that awful answer that you don't want to have and say it's too

:28:13. > :28:16.early to call. I certainly think... I mean, it would be one of the seats

:28:17. > :28:20.that would be in the mix. One that is worth watching. What is your view

:28:21. > :28:25.of it, Clare. Do you think you can hold on? Yes, I could. I think, as

:28:26. > :28:29.you say, Mark has a strong personal vote. He is somebody who speaks for

:28:30. > :28:33.people a lot wider than Foyle particularly on be issues around

:28:34. > :28:37.foreign policy and be issues around tax credits and pensions and things

:28:38. > :28:42.like that. I was there myself on Monday. There was postivity for him

:28:43. > :28:47.from across the board. I would be very confident that we'll hold. Let

:28:48. > :28:55.us look at a few pictures from South Belfast here. Let us let them play

:28:56. > :29:04.and see what you make of that. That is the Dup candidate. Looks like...

:29:05. > :29:08.Christopher. You are here. You are can clearly not there as well. Who

:29:09. > :29:13.was the guy in the jumper giving her the thumbs up, a party worker? A

:29:14. > :29:24.party worker in Belfast East. He doesn't know! You won't read too

:29:25. > :29:30.much in that? No. He's a Pengelly man, is that right? Behave yourself.

:29:31. > :29:37.I've been involved in elections since 1998. I thought you were go to

:29:38. > :29:42.say the reaffirmation. Maybe we could do with one. I genuinely can

:29:43. > :29:50.say toss a coin. I do not know what the result will be. I know from my

:29:51. > :29:53.constituency office is app Sandy Row, people were at the polling

:29:54. > :30:00.station, we were driving people out in Sandy Row. . We got one of the

:30:01. > :30:06.boxes in Sandy Row up to 70%. 70% turnout in one of the boxes in Sandy

:30:07. > :30:11.Row. 67% in one of the boxes is an unheard of level of turnout. We did

:30:12. > :30:16.put a real ground operation in place today and we did our best. Pretty

:30:17. > :30:19.sure that they actually voted for the Dup, you weren't driving them to

:30:20. > :30:24.vote for the Ulster Unionist? You have to respect the privacy of the

:30:25. > :30:29.ballot, of course. I think we did put a real effort into the

:30:30. > :30:33.constituency in this election. I mean, conceivably, there's

:30:34. > :30:36.potentially four parties who could conceivably win South Belfast and

:30:37. > :30:40.there wasn't a cigarette paper between any of us really in terms of

:30:41. > :30:53.the Assembly election Who do you hope wins? I hope Emma

:30:54. > :30:58.Little Pengelly wins. It must be a difficult relationship, you fought

:30:59. > :31:03.alongside her for a Assembly seat. She lost and was disappointed and

:31:04. > :31:09.now she is running for Westminster. I have put every effort into getting

:31:10. > :31:14.her elected. When I said when she did not get elected to Strowman, she

:31:15. > :31:21.is an extremely talented and capable person and I think she will make a

:31:22. > :31:25.good MP and I will have been out, my friends and supporters have been out

:31:26. > :31:33.helping in the election campaign because I think, as Nile said. Macro

:31:34. > :31:43.is it because you wanted her out of your hair in Westminster? The that

:31:44. > :31:51.infects Broadcasting House... I am smiling. Do not be too Po faced. To

:31:52. > :31:56.be called Po faced by Northern Ireland's answer to Jeremy Paxman...

:31:57. > :32:03.He will be out to get me for the rest of the evening. We had a good

:32:04. > :32:08.campaign in south Belfast. I ran the campaign in 2015 and I think we are

:32:09. > :32:13.in a better place than we were then in terms of picking up the seat.

:32:14. > :32:19.Alasdair McDonnell, he could hang on. He the great survivor in south

:32:20. > :32:22.Belfast. Alasdair McDonnell has been involved in electoral politics in

:32:23. > :32:30.south Belfast since before I was born. He has very deep roots in the

:32:31. > :32:34.community and constituency. He is a heck of a ward operator and a heck

:32:35. > :32:40.of a constituency operator and I would not be at all surprised if he

:32:41. > :32:43.pulled it out of the fire again. I genuinely do not know what way the

:32:44. > :32:51.constituency will go, but as I say, I think we're in a better place to

:32:52. > :32:57.win it that we were in 2015. It is interesting to get your perspective.

:32:58. > :33:03.Clare, in all honesty, do you think that Alistair MacDonald can hang in

:33:04. > :33:09.there? You could toss a coin and theoretically to other parties could

:33:10. > :33:17.have a shot at it as well. When he won two years ago, it was a vote of

:33:18. > :33:23.24.5%, the lowest ever sharer for an MP return to Westminster. It was

:33:24. > :33:29.effectively a five way marginal them. I am looking at Twitter and

:33:30. > :33:35.hearing entirely different pictures. I think turnout is up in some of the

:33:36. > :33:40.boxes. Definitely, Alasdair McDonnell, you talk about the last

:33:41. > :33:45.great lion in Europe, he is a formidable campaigner and it is

:33:46. > :33:49.because campaigns are not won on social media, he gets things done

:33:50. > :33:54.and he has worked and lived in the constituency. He will have won it

:33:55. > :34:00.because of tactical voting. It he will have won because Unionist... I

:34:01. > :34:06.do not know. I vote in every election and no one checks my

:34:07. > :34:11.credentials. You can see trends. The point is, there may well it the

:34:12. > :34:15.moderate Unionists in south Belfast who would rather see a pro-Europe

:34:16. > :34:24.candidate returned that a pro-Brexit candidate. That is the theory.

:34:25. > :34:29.Alasdair McDonnell got 9500 and 2015 and we got in and around 8500 in

:34:30. > :34:34.their previous elections, there is not that big of a gap and a lot of

:34:35. > :34:40.those will have come from Alliance Party and Green Party voters. He

:34:41. > :34:44.builds up a remarkable Coalition of voters. One of the things that I

:34:45. > :34:51.think is different in south Belfast, in 2015, I think it was clearly

:34:52. > :34:59.established that in order to prevent the DUP from winning, you had to

:35:00. > :35:07.vote for Alasdair McDonnell. In 2017, that argument was not settled

:35:08. > :35:13.and we have seen it on Twitter, some dodgy bar graphs floating around,

:35:14. > :35:18.there has been inside the anti-DUP opposition, as it were, battle

:35:19. > :35:27.raging and I am back -- best place to stop them. What I am saying, in

:35:28. > :35:31.the last election, the argument was settled well before polling day,

:35:32. > :35:35.that if you wanted to stop the DUP, you had to vote for Alasdair

:35:36. > :35:42.McDonnell. That argument was not settled before polling day this

:35:43. > :35:46.time. We will see how Mairtin O'Muilleoir does. Last time he

:35:47. > :35:49.talked up his chances and came in fourth place, he did not do as well

:35:50. > :35:54.as he would have led people to believe. There is nothing to say he

:35:55. > :36:00.was not topping the poll when he said it. Here's the thing, Niall, if

:36:01. > :36:07.he was, he did not know. Here is another election ahead of us. I

:36:08. > :36:12.would contest, the biggest battle royale in south Belfast was going on

:36:13. > :36:15.internally in the DUP. I have been canvassing in south Belfast and the

:36:16. > :36:19.one thing I took away from it is that people have been hugely engaged

:36:20. > :36:24.on the door so they have been talking about Brexit and the issues

:36:25. > :36:27.affecting our broader politics, about getting the institutions and

:36:28. > :36:32.the executives backed up and running and that is why our teams will be at

:36:33. > :36:39.the talks on Monday but that frame of mind. I do think south Belfast to

:36:40. > :36:43.be fair, I have heard a couple of people talk about nerds and geeks,

:36:44. > :36:49.anyone who has been watching it has been in for an interesting contest.

:36:50. > :36:53.It certainly has. I need to let Stephen come in as a representative

:36:54. > :37:00.of the fourth party in the mix. A lot of people thought that Paula

:37:01. > :37:04.Bradshaw did well in the outside broadcast from Saint Georges market

:37:05. > :37:08.last Thursday night. She is a serious contender and we will see

:37:09. > :37:13.what happens. There is very little hard data coming through from South

:37:14. > :37:17.Belfast and we have is the anecdotal evidence on the ground. That was

:37:18. > :37:22.extremely tightly fought and it will be tight in terms of the final. We

:37:23. > :37:29.experienced Hoople coming to Paula coming from other parties even if

:37:30. > :37:32.people were persuaded to go to other parties from different perceptions.

:37:33. > :37:37.It is a real shame that we have the first past the post system, does not

:37:38. > :37:43.accurately reflect the views in the constituency. It may well be that

:37:44. > :37:51.the DUP do come through later on. We will see in the small hours of the

:37:52. > :37:56.morning. It will be one where they are very much at odds with the

:37:57. > :38:00.majority view. I will come back to you. I want to go out and about for

:38:01. > :38:08.a moment too because we have Sylvia Hermon here's the Independent

:38:09. > :38:11.candidate joining us from Bangor. Lady Hermon, nice to see you, how

:38:12. > :38:18.are you feeling at this very early stage in proceedings? It is a very

:38:19. > :38:24.early stage in proceedings. I have got a cup of tea but I cannot have a

:38:25. > :38:31.cup of tea. It is quite interesting. It is very interesting in the count,

:38:32. > :38:39.there were predictions that I would be home and dry, but I never feel

:38:40. > :38:42.like that. I am always the one who thinks, come one election, you're

:38:43. > :38:49.swept away because people want a change. The boxes, the ballot boxes

:38:50. > :38:56.coming back and have shown that the DUP candidate has done better than

:38:57. > :39:02.he himself might have predicted. He has done well. It is actually quite

:39:03. > :39:10.close. There is no chance of Alex Easton overtaking Sylvia Hermon.

:39:11. > :39:16.You're defending at 17,000 689 votes, 49% of the vote. This is not

:39:17. > :39:21.a marginal we are talking about. It is not, but there have been

:39:22. > :39:27.significant changes in two years and one of them of course is Brexit. And

:39:28. > :39:32.I was very strongly in favour of remaining within the European Union

:39:33. > :39:35.and so I have had of voters on the doorsteps who have asked me if I

:39:36. > :39:40.would've Brexit and I said and then they did not wish to give me their

:39:41. > :39:46.vote even though Article 50 has been triggered and we are on our way out

:39:47. > :39:51.of Europe. That did play into this election, unfortunately, and then of

:39:52. > :39:55.course there is this Sinn Fein argument about every vote that they

:39:56. > :40:01.get, that they want to get, will they think take them to secure

:40:02. > :40:06.border poll. There were issues on the doorsteps that have not arisen

:40:07. > :40:10.in the past. We saw pictures of you talking to the Ulster Unionist

:40:11. > :40:13.candidate in the neighbouring constituency of strife, Mike

:40:14. > :40:16.Nesbitt, we are looking at the pictures now, you have a clipboard

:40:17. > :40:24.in your hand and you are gesticulating and he is smiling,

:40:25. > :40:33.what we're talking about? In the recent past, we did not appear to

:40:34. > :40:43.have had much by way of conversation and sadly, sadly actually, we were

:40:44. > :40:50.talking about a funeral that the two of us had, died in sad

:40:51. > :40:53.circumstances, a character, you will know who I am talking about and we

:40:54. > :40:57.did not have a chance to talk and I was reflecting upon the time that

:40:58. > :41:02.David Trimble had stood down as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party

:41:03. > :41:05.in 2005 when he lost his seat, the pressure I had commander at that

:41:06. > :41:10.time and I was in Neil Stuke Unionist party, to lead the party.

:41:11. > :41:14.None of the newspapers running with this story thought about phoning me

:41:15. > :41:19.and asking me if I was interested in being the leader. So it was a

:41:20. > :41:26.reflective moment with Mike Nesbitt, just saying to him, that he had

:41:27. > :41:30.tried his very best in leading the Ulster Unionist Party and it is not

:41:31. > :41:36.an easy job and I was very glad I did not do it in 2005. That is an

:41:37. > :41:40.interesting little insight into the conversation. Before I ask you about

:41:41. > :41:44.the national picture, is he making positive noises about his prospects

:41:45. > :41:49.in Strangford? It will be difficult for him to take that seat from the

:41:50. > :41:56.incumbent Jim Shannon. You do not talk about it at all? Sorry, we did

:41:57. > :42:01.not talk about it, because the ballot boxes for North Down actually

:42:02. > :42:03.came in first and to my knowledge, there have not been many boxes

:42:04. > :42:09.brought in from Strangford. How he fares in Strangford, did not

:42:10. > :42:12.actually appear in our conversation at all and I did not ask him and he

:42:13. > :42:16.did not offer any view about Strangford at all. It was actually

:42:17. > :42:21.just reflecting upon his leadership of the party and 2005 when David

:42:22. > :42:26.Trimble stood down. Very quickly before we move on to talk to other

:42:27. > :42:30.people, can I ask you for your view of the exit poll, the national

:42:31. > :42:33.picture which suggests that the calculation by Theresa May to call

:42:34. > :42:43.this snap election could have backfired. What do you make of those

:42:44. > :42:50.numbers? Well, I remember Easter Tuesday and I remember Christmas and

:42:51. > :42:57.subsequent Christmas, that Theresa May put, who said that we would not

:42:58. > :43:00.have an early election. Country needed a period of stability and

:43:01. > :43:05.calm after the Brexit vote and then on Easter Tuesday, the Prime

:43:06. > :43:08.Minister turns up to the Cabinet meeting and announces to the

:43:09. > :43:12.Cabinet, at half past eight in the morning that there will be a snap

:43:13. > :43:18.general election. I was one of 13, there was not a queue in the

:43:19. > :43:21.division lobby when I voted against the general election and her

:43:22. > :43:25.decision to call a general election. I thought it was a daft decision

:43:26. > :43:29.then and I think that there were certainly some in her party if not

:43:30. > :43:33.Theresa May herself who will be reflecting on it if the exit polls

:43:34. > :43:38.are anywhere close and correct this evening. Then, she is in a very

:43:39. > :43:43.difficult position, she is in a bit of a pickle. She did not need this,

:43:44. > :43:47.she had a comfortable majority, she had not lost a single vote for

:43:48. > :43:50.Brexit and to have turned this general election, as she explained

:43:51. > :43:54.on the steps of Downing Street on Easter Tuesday morning, that this

:43:55. > :44:00.was to strengthen her hands going into the Brexit negotiations, if the

:44:01. > :44:02.exit polls are anything to go by, and there is no guarantee that they

:44:03. > :44:06.are accurate at this stage, because it is very early evening. It

:44:07. > :44:10.certainly has not strengthened her hand going into Brexit negotiations,

:44:11. > :44:13.quite the opposite. OK, very interesting to hear your thoughts,

:44:14. > :44:18.thank you very much for joining us. We will maybe catch up with you

:44:19. > :44:21.later when we hear how you have done in North Down. Thank you very much

:44:22. > :44:29.indeed. Thank you, you're very welcome. Let us pick up on some of

:44:30. > :44:33.what she was saying. Danny Kennedy, no lover of course of the

:44:34. > :44:41.Conservative Party, she left the Ulster Unionist Party in 2010 the

:44:42. > :44:44.cars of the experiment which did not work terribly well. She's not a

:44:45. > :44:49.lover of the Conservative Party and it is pretty obvious there, her

:44:50. > :44:52.view, it is fair to say, if this backfires for treason in May, she

:44:53. > :44:59.will not have any great sympathy for her. That is probably accurate. She

:45:00. > :45:03.has always had strong views, particularly about the Conservative

:45:04. > :45:08.Party, led primarily at the time by David Cameron who basically ignored

:45:09. > :45:14.her when they both entered the hazard, that the same time. They are

:45:15. > :45:15.not just personal reasons -- like when they both entered the House of

:45:16. > :45:31.Commons. Would she be a good leader of the

:45:32. > :45:37.unionist Party Your candidate was announced for this election. You

:45:38. > :45:42.withdrew him and Robin Swann said we don't need to run a candidate

:45:43. > :45:45.because Sylvia her monk is there. If you like the Ulster Unionist Party

:45:46. > :45:52.vote for Sylvia. That is is exactively what he said. Most people

:45:53. > :45:57.would accurately conclude that she reflects very much Ulster unionist

:45:58. > :46:00.outlooks and general views. OK. Christopher, interesting to hear her

:46:01. > :46:04.saying shelf wasn't going to get drawn into any sense of triumphalism

:46:05. > :46:10.she is defending an enormous majority. She is saying your

:46:11. > :46:14.candidate, Alex Easton may have done better than he was expecting to do?

:46:15. > :46:21.I worked for one of our Assembly members in North Down. It was peter

:46:22. > :46:26.weir. I remember when he ran against Lady her monk in 2005. To run

:46:27. > :46:31.against her in North Down. She is the rock of gee bralt are, you will

:46:32. > :46:37.not shift her. What we will look for in North Down if we get an increase

:46:38. > :46:43.in our vote in that constituency, that goes well for us for future

:46:44. > :46:45.elections. You will never get her out, but when she decides she's had

:46:46. > :46:51.enough. That is when it gets interesting? In our candidate, Alex

:46:52. > :46:56.Easton, we talked about this at the start of the programme, Alex Easton

:46:57. > :47:00.is someone again who built his entire position in that constituency

:47:01. > :47:05.on the basis of hard graft on the ground for people. I would like to

:47:06. > :47:10.see Alex rewarded for that with an increase in his vote and, if we do

:47:11. > :47:18.increase our vote in North Down, running against Lady Her -- Hermon.

:47:19. > :47:25.That would be a considerable It is rather achievement. Interesting that

:47:26. > :47:32.at the conclusion I understand of the Assembly election count, one of

:47:33. > :47:37.the successful DUP candidates effectively served notice on Lady

:47:38. > :47:44.Sylvia. We will be interesting to see the outcome of that. Forgive me

:47:45. > :47:49.if I go first to the Valley Leisure Centre to talk about South and East

:47:50. > :47:54.Antrim. What are you hearing. We were talking to Sammy Wilson a short

:47:55. > :47:57.time ago he wasn't giving much away we are not expecting any great

:47:58. > :48:04.surprises there. What about South Antrim? Well, two very different

:48:05. > :48:08.constituencies, Mark. You know, South Antrim and East Antrim. East

:48:09. > :48:13.Antrim not expecting too many surprises. South Antrim, a whole

:48:14. > :48:23.different kettle of fish. South Antrim is one of those

:48:24. > :48:27.constituencies that is a genuine yo-yo constituency in Northern

:48:28. > :48:31.Ireland. It has changed hand four times since 1997. Back in the last

:48:32. > :48:37.general election it was Danny Kinahan of the Ulster Unionist Party

:48:38. > :48:43.that took that seat from Willie McCrea by 949 votes. Now the DUP are

:48:44. > :48:48.up against Mr Kinahan again this time round. It's Paul Girvan. Paul

:48:49. > :48:55.Girvan topped the poll here in the Assembly election back in March and

:48:56. > :48:59.his party, the DUP, polled 13% more than the Ulster Unionist Party. Make

:49:00. > :49:05.of that with a you like. What we are hearing at the moment is that it is

:49:06. > :49:11.all very neck and neck. As you said, East Belfast, Sammy Wilson's seat,

:49:12. > :49:16.since 2005. He has held that seat. Back then he had around 50% of the

:49:17. > :49:23.vote. That dropped to about 36% in 2015. But he was 17% ahead of his

:49:24. > :49:27.nearest rivals. I reckon that could be Mr Wilson's seat. It's all to

:49:28. > :49:31.play for here in South Antrim. Thank you very much indeed. She has done

:49:32. > :49:37.what I did ten minutes ago and referred to Samily Wilson in East

:49:38. > :49:40.Belfast. It's East And rim. Gerry Adams is walking into the count

:49:41. > :49:46.centre in Belfast, Titanic Exhibition Centre. Hoping to get

:49:47. > :49:51.pictures of that. Here it comes. He's, can we see him. There yes, we

:49:52. > :49:56.can. Walking in with Richard McAuley, his right-hand man. You can

:49:57. > :50:01.see him behind the door. Our camera is inside the Exhibition Centre. Mr

:50:02. > :50:09.Adams ands had entourage outside at the moment. There he comes. MLA for

:50:10. > :50:18.North Belfast. Paul Maskey, hoping to be returned as the MP for West

:50:19. > :50:22.Belfast. McAuley behind him there with the grey hair. People are

:50:23. > :50:29.checking in. A stringent security system. They are being given

:50:30. > :50:42.wrist-bands. Tara will speak to him. Hold on. Hold on. Hi, tara. We are

:50:43. > :50:45.live on BBC Northern Ireland. We've heard it from other Sinn Fein

:50:46. > :50:51.representatives, can you say with certainty that Sinn Fein MPs will

:50:52. > :50:55.not take their seats? Well, let me say, first of all, that our leader

:50:56. > :51:00.here in the North and the Northern team have fought a wonderful

:51:01. > :51:04.campaign. We're quite satisfied we have our vote out everywhere. What

:51:05. > :51:09.that means, in terms of seats, remains to be seen. But I want to

:51:10. > :51:13.commend Michelle. I want to commend all of our candidates and thank

:51:14. > :51:18.them. Especially want to thank their families. This is the second

:51:19. > :51:22.election in a very short period. That goes for every party people

:51:23. > :51:26.whether you agree with them or not who stand for public office. It's a

:51:27. > :51:32.very trying process. So what all that means in terms of seats, we

:51:33. > :51:36.don't yet know. If we are fortunate enough and privileged enough to have

:51:37. > :51:40.our candidates returned as MPs it would be on the basis that we will

:51:41. > :51:43.not be going to take our seats in Westminster. Given the results of

:51:44. > :51:46.the exit poll and the predictions that there may well be a hung

:51:47. > :51:52.parliament, you could have influence on Brexit. Would you not take that?

:51:53. > :51:58.I actually think it's very interesting that Jeremy Corbyn did

:51:59. > :52:03.so well. He fought a very, very good campaign despite the media bias

:52:04. > :52:08.against him. I don't know how Theresa May can survive this. That's

:52:09. > :52:13.a matter for her party of course. It is putting a big focus on Brexit

:52:14. > :52:19.because she went out to get a vote for a hard Brexit. Now, the people

:52:20. > :52:25.here in this State voted to remain. That has been ignored by the DUP.

:52:26. > :52:29.It's been ignored by the UUP and it's been ignored by Theresa May. I

:52:30. > :52:33.think she's got our answer, in terms of Brexit, this evening. Geoffrey

:52:34. > :52:38.Donaldson is playing up their role, their potential role in a hung

:52:39. > :52:47.parliament. Jeffrey always plays up their role. He campaigned for

:52:48. > :52:52.Brexit. Jeffrey, in terms of some of the hustings that I saw him part of

:52:53. > :53:02.didn't deal with issues like marriage equality. Didn't deal with

:53:03. > :53:05.issues about the possibilities of getting our local institutions, the

:53:06. > :53:09.real, important institutions back in place. The DUP have yet to come to

:53:10. > :53:12.terms with the fact that everyone has rights, including the DUP, but

:53:13. > :53:17.everyone has rights and the reason why we are in the fix, in terms of

:53:18. > :53:21.the local political institutions and the all-Ireland bodies an the

:53:22. > :53:25.Assembly is that the DUP didn't accept and behave as they should

:53:26. > :53:31.have in terms of everybody will be treated with respect and integrity.

:53:32. > :53:35.He's listening to you here on BBC. Is there a danger that if you don't

:53:36. > :53:40.take the seats you could ironically end up handing Theresa May a narrow

:53:41. > :53:44.majority? There is no danger whatsoever... Gerry Adams, the

:53:45. > :53:53.President of the Sinn Fein, just arriving there with hissent ran

:53:54. > :53:58.which including also Gerry Kelly -- his ??SPACent roj. Interesting shot

:53:59. > :54:01.of Geoffrey Donaldson at his Laggan Valley count listening to Mr Adams

:54:02. > :54:11.talking about Geoffrey Donaldson's comments. Niall, to pick up. He was

:54:12. > :54:14.clear there, wasn't he, your party leader, MPs elected for Sinn Fein at

:54:15. > :54:18.this election have been returned or will be returned on the basy they

:54:19. > :54:24.are not going to take our seats at Westminster. Did you not believe me?

:54:25. > :54:28.No, I'm just absolutely pointing it out that he's - you obviously heard

:54:29. > :54:34.the line from you and he's sticking to it. I've no doubt about it. Yes

:54:35. > :54:37.of course that's our line. That is our position our principaled

:54:38. > :54:41.position. That will is the premise of our political ideology. So that

:54:42. > :54:47.is what it is. We are where we are. I think the interesting point from

:54:48. > :54:51.Gerry's contribution is the critical one that will grow as we head into

:54:52. > :54:55.the weekend, is the need to return to the institutions and the

:54:56. > :54:58.arrangements and the agreements, particularly the outstanding

:54:59. > :55:05.agreements, that exist here in this State. Let us hear from Sir Geoffrey

:55:06. > :55:12.Donaldson at the Eikon Centre near the Maze at his Laggan Valley Count

:55:13. > :55:18.also the count for you Newry and Armagh. Evening to you. Thank you

:55:19. > :55:21.for joining us. Were you enjointing that interplay between yourself and

:55:22. > :55:26.Gerry Adams though you weren't speaking directly to each other. We

:55:27. > :55:32.could see you responding to what he was saying about you. Gently, poking

:55:33. > :55:40.you, perhaps? I'm used to that from Sinn Fein. So, on a night when we're

:55:41. > :55:45.polling very strongly here in Lagan havy, if the swing we are getting in

:55:46. > :55:48.nigh constituency is replicated in other constituencies the DUP will

:55:49. > :55:53.have a good night. That is something Gerry Adams might want it reflect

:55:54. > :55:59.on. Are you in a position to say that for sure, a swing towards the

:56:00. > :56:03.DUP? What time is it 11.52pm not all the boxes presumably have been

:56:04. > :56:10.opened. It's early to be predicting a significant swing to the DUP, is

:56:11. > :56:15.it not? Mark, autumn the boxes are open in Lagan valley we tallied all

:56:16. > :56:19.of them. I can tell you we have done extremely well in this constituency.

:56:20. > :56:23.Take my word for it. Do you want to put numbers on that for us? You are

:56:24. > :56:30.defending a thumping majority in the first place iech don't think as I

:56:31. > :56:35.said to Sylvia Hermon it's not a marginal seat in North Down the same

:56:36. > :56:38.could be said about Lagan Valley no doubt you will retain that seat. Are

:56:39. > :56:43.you saying that you believe you will retain it with a bigger majority

:56:44. > :56:49.than you had two years ago? Well, clearly I can't predict the majority

:56:50. > :56:56.at this stage. My assessment is based on our tallies. I think that

:56:57. > :57:03.the DUP has seen a swing towards its position. I'm simply saying if the

:57:04. > :57:08.swing in favour of the DUP in Lagan havy were to be replicated in other

:57:09. > :57:11.constituencies. I don't see no reason why it might not. The DUP

:57:12. > :57:17.will have a good night. Clarify, a swing from whom? From whom to the

:57:18. > :57:24.DUP. Tell me the direction of that swing? Well, clearly if we're

:57:25. > :57:28.gaining votes it's mainly at the expense of the Ulster Unionist Party

:57:29. > :57:32.in the Assembly elections they polled reasonably well in Lagan

:57:33. > :57:37.valley. I think in this election a lot of that vote has come back to

:57:38. > :57:45.the DUP. Right. Do you also think turnout is up on two years ago? I

:57:46. > :57:51.think that the turnout is good. I was a little concerned earlier in

:57:52. > :57:54.the day, heavy rain, it was steady, but slower than one might have

:57:55. > :58:01.expected. It picked up very well in the afternoon and the evening. So

:58:02. > :58:04.too early to say if we'll have an increased turnout, certainly we're

:58:05. > :58:09.pleased with the turnout. OK. Let me ask you about the wider picture. You

:58:10. > :58:12.have will have seen the details of the joint broadcasters exit poll. It

:58:13. > :58:21.comes with a health warning we said that since it was published at

:58:22. > :58:24.10.00pm it's now nearly 12.00am if they are broadly correct, it's a bad

:58:25. > :58:28.night for Theresa May. We are looking at the Conservatives being

:58:29. > :58:33.the largest party, but not having a majority. They are 12 short. What

:58:34. > :58:38.does that mean for the DUP, spell it out if that scenario comes to be

:58:39. > :58:44.fact by bra breakfast time tomorrow? Well, I'm not so sure that it will,

:58:45. > :58:47.Mark. To be honest I've been here two years ago I remember being asked

:58:48. > :58:52.the same questions at this stage of the evening. Of course, the exit

:58:53. > :58:55.polls weren't correct that time. The Conservatives did get an overall

:58:56. > :58:59.majority. If you look at the early results, even in the North of

:59:00. > :59:03.England, the Conservatives are gaining a swing in some Labour-held

:59:04. > :59:09.seats. So I think it's too early to say. Let me say two things. If we

:59:10. > :59:14.have a Conservative Government with a modest majority, a small majority,

:59:15. > :59:19.that still places the DUP in a very influential position. Just as we

:59:20. > :59:24.were in the last Parliament. I was our party's Chief Whip. I know how

:59:25. > :59:28.influential we were last time round. I think that if the same scenario

:59:29. > :59:32.arises again, we'll be in a similar position. Physical we're into hung

:59:33. > :59:37.Parliament territory, then of course that's a different matter. I think

:59:38. > :59:41.that the DUP also, if the Conservatives are the largest party,

:59:42. > :59:46.is going to be in a strong position. But I'm not convinced that's going

:59:47. > :59:50.to be the outcome. OK. We will see. As you say, you are absolutely

:59:51. > :59:53.right, it's early days at this stage. We will leave it there for

:59:54. > :59:57.now. Thank you very much for joining us wef will touch base with you

:59:58. > :00:00.later in the evening, or in the early hours of the morning. Geoffrey

:00:01. > :00:05.Donaldson joining from yous his count centre in Lagan valley. I will

:00:06. > :00:11.come back to my panel in a moment or two. Let's hear a few thoughts from

:00:12. > :00:14.Mark Devenport and Nicholas Whyte. We will look at the position across

:00:15. > :00:19.Northern Ireland from the last election, just run through some of

:00:20. > :00:22.the constituencies. Before we do, Geoffrey Donaldson sceptical about

:00:23. > :00:27.the exit poll, the hung Parliament, Nicholas. Some of those results

:00:28. > :00:31.coming through in the north-east of England maybe gives rise to the

:00:32. > :00:37.suspicion that the exit may be a bit out? It may be. These are places

:00:38. > :00:42.where previously Ukip had taken quite a lot of votes from Labour.

:00:43. > :00:46.Maybe a bit disproportionately and the Ukip vote may be unwinding there

:00:47. > :00:50.that is uncharacteristic for the rest of the country. Professor John

:00:51. > :00:53.Curtice is noticing that the swing that the exit poll had to Labour

:00:54. > :00:55.does not seem to be replicated in the results we have so far? It's a

:00:56. > :01:06.statement of fact, yeah. Let's look at the situation across

:01:07. > :01:11.Northern Ireland. This is the map of the constituencies in 2015. We have

:01:12. > :01:17.heard a lot about South Belfast. South seems to be the word of this

:01:18. > :01:22.election, because of the in a constituency with cells in the name,

:01:23. > :01:26.it is precarious. In South Down there is a title fight between the

:01:27. > :01:31.SDLP and Sinn Fein to gain another seat for a Sinn Fein at that point.

:01:32. > :01:37.The other two that are worth looking at, where one would see a tight

:01:38. > :01:43.result and possibly a change of representation, Fermanagh and South

:01:44. > :01:49.Tyrone, and East Belfast, across the river from us here. Fermanagh and

:01:50. > :01:57.South Tyrone, both South Belfast and South Antrim, they are both within

:01:58. > :02:00.the most marginal 30 seats. For Fermanagh and South Tyrone, that is

:02:01. > :02:06.disappointing. They have had the top spot once or twice. Let us remind

:02:07. > :02:09.viewers of how many MPs we have had, this is obviously the reason why

:02:10. > :02:13.there has been all the speculation about Northern Ireland coming into

:02:14. > :02:19.play because we have the DUP on eight, the Ulster Unionists on to

:02:20. > :02:23.and Sylvia Hermon there as well. If the exit poll was proven right, that

:02:24. > :02:31.is why they might play a role, because they could play a gap. The

:02:32. > :02:37.TV could pick up South Belfast and they might pick up South Antrim and

:02:38. > :02:44.they may well avoid losing East Belfast to the Alliance Party. This

:02:45. > :02:48.is the base we will be comparing this election with. Another matter

:02:49. > :02:52.which is going to be of interest is whether Sinn Fein emerges as the

:02:53. > :02:57.biggest party. This was the share of the vote in 2015 and it was quite

:02:58. > :03:05.narrow at the top. It is very narrow. This year the DUP have a

:03:06. > :03:12.candidate in Newry and Armagh. They do not have a candidate in Fermanagh

:03:13. > :03:20.and South Tyrone. It could be tied. We will see a certain increase in

:03:21. > :03:24.the DUP vote. We are also going to see an increase in the Sinn Fein

:03:25. > :03:29.vote overall. It Sinn Fein does become the biggest party in terms of

:03:30. > :03:40.the number of votes, that is not the first in a Westminster election. It

:03:41. > :03:45.was the wonderful days of 2010. Then Sinn Fein actually topped the poll

:03:46. > :03:48.both in the local elections and in the Westminster elections and ended

:03:49. > :03:56.up with fewer seats because of the way the votes were distributed. The

:03:57. > :03:59.Ulster Unionists and SDLP seats into the precarious. We could see the

:04:00. > :04:05.number of seats disappear and without much shrinking. Both the

:04:06. > :04:08.Ulster Unionist seats there with very slim majorities and eat and it

:04:09. > :04:16.would not take very much for them to be wiped off the map and be replaced

:04:17. > :04:22.by the DUP and Sinn Fein. That is a general sense of what we will be

:04:23. > :04:26.comparing things with. That is the position we have to go from in 2015

:04:27. > :04:30.in deciding whether it is a good night or a bad night for any of the

:04:31. > :04:37.particular local parties we are talking about. Keep counting the

:04:38. > :04:40.votes. You're absolutely right. Without the votes being counted, we

:04:41. > :04:47.cannot move the conversation on very much.

:04:48. > :04:53.First conservative elected in Swindon North. Justin Tomlinson

:04:54. > :05:05.winning that for the Conservative Party. 53.6% share, total vote of

:05:06. > :05:11.29,500 votes. Theresa May off the starting blocks. Four Labour MPs,

:05:12. > :05:22.one conservative sofa. Let's hear from John O'Neill. We were chatting

:05:23. > :05:27.to Lady Hermon earlier. We saw her talking to Mike Nesbitt, the former

:05:28. > :05:40.Ulster party Doolan unionist. She will do well in North Down, even

:05:41. > :05:47.though being modest. I'm told from the floor, DUP 's sources. Jim

:05:48. > :05:58.Shannon is cruising. Hearing the turnout behind me. Jim Shannon is

:05:59. > :06:03.not here himself. . No one is expecting any other outcome than him

:06:04. > :06:12.retaining his seat. I haven't won on the turnout. I should have it in the

:06:13. > :06:19.second. 38,000 votes polled. That makes the turnout 60%. Not a bad

:06:20. > :06:25.turnout, given there was much talk this election did not catch the

:06:26. > :06:31.imagination, certainly in Unionists constituencies like Strangford and

:06:32. > :06:36.North Down, where there is considered not to be much of a

:06:37. > :06:44.contest. Much of the focus has been Down. Lady Sylvia Hermon, by her own

:06:45. > :06:50.admission, feels it is a tight race than 2010. The offending in 9000

:06:51. > :06:56.majority. DUP sources telling me Alex Easton has polled very well. I

:06:57. > :07:01.must say at this stage, nobody is for one second suggesting Lady

:07:02. > :07:06.Sylvia Hermon will not retain the seat. If she does, the fifth time

:07:07. > :07:14.she has been returned to Westminster. We got the official

:07:15. > :07:16.turnout, 61%. Much as it was in line with the assembly election. Quite a

:07:17. > :07:27.healthy turnout in both these constituencies. Unionist MPs return

:07:28. > :07:33.to Westminster, come what may. Thank you for that. Interesting to get the

:07:34. > :07:40.turnout in Strangford, 52.8% in 2015, so it is up, and are not an

:07:41. > :07:45.insignificant amount. 60%. Some people concerned the weather might

:07:46. > :07:50.put people off. What do you make of it, Chris Donnelly has joined us,

:07:51. > :07:56.our political commentator. He sneaked in when I was talking to

:07:57. > :08:02.Julian. Welcome to you. Thank you for joining us. Asking you about the

:08:03. > :08:07.turnout, generally it seems to be up a bit on it was a couple of years

:08:08. > :08:13.ago. Too early to say for sure. Looks like the trend. The context

:08:14. > :08:18.for the election, Theresa May call this on back of the Brexit

:08:19. > :08:23.negotiations to strengthen her hand. For us, it is very much the March

:08:24. > :08:28.election of the assembly. The surprise turnout for nationalists

:08:29. > :08:33.will inform it. A question mark whether they turnout in the same

:08:34. > :08:38.numbers. Unionists will turn out because of the shock factor what

:08:39. > :08:43.happened in March when unionism was reduced, and that would be very much

:08:44. > :08:56.consistency what we heard in terms of North Down. 61% higher than

:08:57. > :09:00.anything, and others constituencies would suggest it will be a good

:09:01. > :09:05.night for turnout in constituencies. We will wait to hear whether that is

:09:06. > :09:12.replicated in constituencies with majority nationalists. How do you

:09:13. > :09:17.see the two big parties doing from a picture to what we saw in March in

:09:18. > :09:21.the Stormont elections, where the two largest parties, the DUP and

:09:22. > :09:25.Sinn Fein make larger advances at the expense of the smaller parties?

:09:26. > :09:31.Has been looking like that for quite some time. The story of the night

:09:32. > :09:38.probably will be both Sinn Fein and the DUP making gains. The DUP, we're

:09:39. > :09:43.hearing Alex Easton polling well. Not a suggestion he's going to take

:09:44. > :09:48.that seat. It perhaps suggest Paul Garvin will be up against it in

:09:49. > :09:54.South Antrim. The DUP also with an opportunity of sneaking through in

:09:55. > :09:57.south Belfast. If the opposition coalesces around them. Sinn Fein

:09:58. > :10:03.voters voting tactically but Alex McConnell. Sinn Fein's primary

:10:04. > :10:07.target South Tyrone and South Down. If they come through that, we could

:10:08. > :10:12.be in a scenario where the Ulster Unionists are left with no seats,

:10:13. > :10:17.and the SDLP will be left with foil. A nightmare for the smaller parties.

:10:18. > :10:22.I want to press the pause button. We have been joined by Jack Straw, the

:10:23. > :10:28.former Labour Home Secretary Chris and Foreign Secretary. Doctor Straw,

:10:29. > :10:33.thank you for joining us on the programme from London. You have been

:10:34. > :10:36.looking at the joint broadcast exit poll, early days. A health warning,

:10:37. > :10:42.we have been saying that through the evening. What do you make of the

:10:43. > :10:46.figures, particularly as far as the Labour Party is concerned? Everybody

:10:47. > :10:54.in the Labour Party will be happy and surprised by these predictions.

:10:55. > :10:59.Which seem like they may be borne out by the recent result we have had

:11:00. > :11:07.in Swindon. That remains a Conservative seat, but the swing was

:11:08. > :11:12.almost identical to those predicted by the exit poll. Still very early

:11:13. > :11:18.days. One thing you can say with certainty, this election, whatever

:11:19. > :11:24.the margin of error for the extra poll, is not the election result

:11:25. > :11:31.that Theresa May wanted, or call the election. She went round campaigning

:11:32. > :11:39.saying what she was promising was strong and stable government, but

:11:40. > :11:48.what we saw instead, aside from Theresa May, and what more we saw

:11:49. > :11:51.from there was uncertainty, vacillation, and on one absolutely

:11:52. > :11:57.key issue on the manifesto, a complete farce, which took place in

:11:58. > :12:02.the space of 24 hours. The so-called dementia tax. On the other side, the

:12:03. > :12:10.Labour Party may yet it has had its internal arguments, famous that the

:12:11. > :12:17.parliamentary party majority did not support Jeremy Corbyn this time last

:12:18. > :12:20.year. Everybody, and I have been campaigning, knocking on doors in

:12:21. > :12:26.the election, everybody got behind the party. Dissension was put aside.

:12:27. > :12:34.Very highly disciplined and organised. A key factor if we do get

:12:35. > :12:41.the better results than we expected will be how many more young people

:12:42. > :12:46.have registered to vote, and come out and voted Labour. I have been

:12:47. > :12:51.struck knocking on doors, standing in polling station today, the old

:12:52. > :13:00.cynicism that one had from the young people, traditionally not voting, or

:13:01. > :13:04.in fewer numbers, that has been brushed aside. It has become quite

:13:05. > :13:12.fashionable to vote, whatever your age. I wonder what you think all of

:13:13. > :13:15.this, if it comes to pass, in some kind of fashion, similar to the

:13:16. > :13:24.numbers we're talking about, means for the Labour Party generally? And

:13:25. > :13:30.the direction of travel. Jeremy Corbyn has a very different view of

:13:31. > :13:34.where the Labour Party should be going, does that mean he was right

:13:35. > :13:39.to stick at it. He has turned out to be a better leader than many people

:13:40. > :13:44.in the Parliamentary Labour Party thought he could be? All credit to

:13:45. > :13:58.him, if he has turned in a better result than we were led to believe.

:13:59. > :14:03.I think I'm also entitled to say that the party I campaign for so

:14:04. > :14:08.vigorously was one that won three elections under Tony Blair's

:14:09. > :14:15.leadership. I happen to believe if we had a leadership and a programme

:14:16. > :14:20.just a bit more towards the centre. I doubt Theresa May would call the

:14:21. > :14:27.election, secondly we would be on target to form a government. We keep

:14:28. > :14:30.saying if, but if the results to come out anywhere near they are,

:14:31. > :14:37.this would be a really significant turning point in British election

:14:38. > :14:45.behaviour. One of the most significant things is the way this

:14:46. > :14:48.has become a two party race on the mainland, just as I'm hearing it is

:14:49. > :14:53.much more in Northern Ireland as well. Good to hear your thoughts,

:14:54. > :14:59.Jack Straw. Thank you for joining us from London, the former Labour home

:15:00. > :15:02.and Foreign Secretary. Stephen Walker, our correspondent is in

:15:03. > :15:08.Downing Street. Standing outside number ten. Is it raining? It has

:15:09. > :15:13.thankfully stopped, that is some good news. Apologies for keeping you

:15:14. > :15:23.standing there in the rain for the last while. I wondered what you

:15:24. > :15:26.made... Of what Jack Straw had to save. Interesting night for him, he

:15:27. > :15:31.comes for a very different Labour Party to the one Jeremy Corbyn is

:15:32. > :15:35.shaping at this stage. He said, effectively, credit where credit is

:15:36. > :15:42.due, if the numbers turn out the way the exit poll suggests? He would not

:15:43. > :15:45.be a natural Jeremy Corbyn fan. He would represent what the

:15:46. > :15:49.Parliamentary Labour Party think. They are not different end of the

:15:50. > :15:54.steer when it comes to Jeremy Corbyn's politics. -- end of the

:15:55. > :15:59.sphere. The Parliament Labour Party wanted Jeremy Corbyn to go, they

:16:00. > :16:03.felt he was electoral liability. If this poll is correct, he will be

:16:04. > :16:09.seen as an electoral asset. To put on 30 seats, if this exit poll is

:16:10. > :16:14.correct, it is remarkable for a Labour Party that back in April,

:16:15. > :16:17.Theresa May was 20 odd points ahead. It would be a remarkable result of

:16:18. > :16:25.the Labour Party if this exit poll is right. Don't know who else is

:16:26. > :16:30.around the, I can see a police officer standing outside number ten.

:16:31. > :16:32.On this side of the camera, we can see them, you can't, there must be a

:16:33. > :16:42.host of other correspondence and the reporters, what is the buzz? What

:16:43. > :16:48.are people saying about the situation potentially beginning to

:16:49. > :16:52.unfold? Well, journalists and producers are naturally excited.

:16:53. > :16:56.They see this as a great new story. A story that people did not think

:16:57. > :17:00.was going to happen. We talked about hung parliament is before them and

:17:01. > :17:05.they have not materialised. In this case there was shock and surprise.

:17:06. > :17:09.When that exit poll was announced back at ten o'clock. A lot of buzz,

:17:10. > :17:15.a lot of excitement. Not many politicians around, and activists.

:17:16. > :17:18.Very few staff around in Downing Street. Certainly amongst the

:17:19. > :17:21.journalists here, reporting on tonight's events, there is a feeling

:17:22. > :17:23.that things happening that could be very newsworthy. Something that was

:17:24. > :17:40.not expected. B has a dry standard to the early

:17:41. > :17:50.hours in the morning. I promised you we would come back and talk about

:17:51. > :17:53.North Down. Jack Straw's analysis of the developing situation,

:17:54. > :17:56.potentially developing situation. I have to keep saying that, we're not

:17:57. > :18:06.absolutely sure. A really tricky one for the Labour, let's call them the

:18:07. > :18:18.old guard, they could not stand Jeremy Corbyn. If the numbers are

:18:19. > :18:21.right. If it were something that happened last year the referendum,

:18:22. > :18:29.it would be a very different context. Not just the UK, across

:18:30. > :18:33.Europe and the world. He has fought campaign, and connected with people.

:18:34. > :18:41.It shows that substance still matters in politics. Spin from that

:18:42. > :18:46.can only get you so far. In terms of reality, what people can do for

:18:47. > :18:49.them. Certainly, a lot of what he was promising did not necessarily

:18:50. > :18:55.add up. It did inspire people to come out and vote. Amazed to see how

:18:56. > :18:58.far that has taken them. The odds is we will see a Conservative Prime

:18:59. > :19:03.Minister, perhaps a different Prime Minister. Whether a single party

:19:04. > :19:08.government, with a very small majority, or some type of

:19:09. > :19:14.confluence, supply situation. We're in a situation with this exit poll,

:19:15. > :19:17.just a small tilt, in terms of the margin of error towards the

:19:18. > :19:24.Conservatives may slightly changed the dynamics.

:19:25. > :19:34.We are floating some pictures from around the count centres. That is

:19:35. > :19:44.Kevin Magee and Jerry Kelly. John Finucane, at the Titanic exhibition

:19:45. > :19:55.centre, and we also saw their at the beginning, the political editor of

:19:56. > :20:10.the Newsletter. He was chatting to a member of Alliance. I want to come

:20:11. > :20:16.back to North Down, and Alex Easton. From mice -- from my sources, Lady

:20:17. > :20:23.Hermon will be home fairly comfortably. I disagree that she is

:20:24. > :20:31.the quintessential Ulster Unionist, I think she is more in keeping of

:20:32. > :20:36.being the maverick Independent. She quickly found her own feed. She is a

:20:37. > :20:50.phenomenon and, in that she almost defies labels. We are going to see

:20:51. > :20:59.my own party vote down compared to March because people right across

:21:00. > :21:07.the spectrum rallied to her. She has the magic of being able to get away

:21:08. > :21:12.with it. Also I think we are seeing a stronger turnout for the DUP,

:21:13. > :21:21.which is in part a reaction to what happened in March. Also, whereas

:21:22. > :21:29.North Down was majority they remain constituency, there still was 40%

:21:30. > :21:33.that voted to leave. We have got no other results to report at the

:21:34. > :21:39.moment, but Claire, your thoughts on how things are shaping up. Phones

:21:40. > :21:43.are buzzing around the table, you are picking up little tips from some

:21:44. > :21:52.of your colleagues. What little gem can you share with us? I'm picking

:21:53. > :21:58.up things from all over. I'm watching the two fights that the

:21:59. > :22:03.SDLP are in in South Down and South Belfast. I think something that Jack

:22:04. > :22:09.Straw said about, well, we were talking about the GB picture, and it

:22:10. > :22:15.was the first ideological battle but we've had in British politics in a

:22:16. > :22:20.file in terms of left-wing policies from Labour and Right Wing ones from

:22:21. > :22:24.the Conservatives. I would have been a particular admirer of Jeremy

:22:25. > :22:29.Corbyn, but he has proved better here. It does look like the ground

:22:30. > :22:35.has been cleared between the two parties, but it also shows how

:22:36. > :22:43.grotesquely unsuitable first past the post is. Potentially the DUP and

:22:44. > :22:50.Sinn Fein would have 50, 60, 50% of the seats respectively. If it stays

:22:51. > :22:55.at 30% and 27% and DUP potentially come home with almost 60% of the

:22:56. > :22:59.seats, it shows there is potential for nuance and we see that in the

:23:00. > :23:09.Assembly election, and I've said that even when first past the post

:23:10. > :23:15.favours my own candidates. 24% last time was enough to give the seat to

:23:16. > :23:22.Alistair MacDonald. If it goes Emma Little Pengelly's way... You two

:23:23. > :23:30.gentlemen have been picking up little messages as well, I want you

:23:31. > :23:36.to share them with us. If you are interested in turnout in lending

:23:37. > :23:46.valley it's something like 62%. -- Lagan Valley. I take the point made

:23:47. > :23:51.earlier... It was 55.9 last time. I think that reflects Unionist concern

:23:52. > :23:56.following the Assembly election. And I think we are seeing increased

:23:57. > :24:02.turnouts in both North Down, Strangford and now Lagan Valley,

:24:03. > :24:05.which seems to be consistent. And is that a reaction to Sinn Fein

:24:06. > :24:13.effectively getting its food and three months ago? Won that would

:24:14. > :24:17.appear to be the logical answer. Whether that will reflect in greater

:24:18. > :24:28.support for the DUP, we'll have to see. I think it goes a bit deeper,

:24:29. > :24:31.the Newsletter editorial today was absolutely right - since the last

:24:32. > :24:39.Assembly election result, the tone and language from Sinn Fein has been

:24:40. > :24:42.incredibly strident. You almost got the sense that the tale is up and

:24:43. > :24:48.they are going to push people around. And people that I represent

:24:49. > :24:50.and people in the Unionist community, but actually I think a

:24:51. > :24:56.lot of people, people who voted for the SDLP, find the time that has

:24:57. > :25:00.come from Sinn Fein since the last Assembly election result to be

:25:01. > :25:06.incredibly dismissive of anyone, and it is simply "Here is our list of

:25:07. > :25:16.demands until -- and until you meet them, we will not allow Government

:25:17. > :25:20.to of Stormont." We will hear from Sinn Fein in a moment or two, but

:25:21. > :25:25.what I have heard them say and what the representatives have said to me

:25:26. > :25:30.in conversations, both on air and off air over the last few months,

:25:31. > :25:34.has been that obviously they are fighting an election campaign and

:25:35. > :25:38.they have a manifesto and they have commitments, but they have talked a

:25:39. > :25:42.lot about equality, integrity and respect, they say they other

:25:43. > :25:45.watchwords of what we -- they are demanding, and they say if you

:25:46. > :25:51.cannot agree with that, there is something wrong with politics. It

:25:52. > :25:54.depends how you define those words, and that is why we are supposed to

:25:55. > :25:59.be having talks with this election is out of the way. But I know there

:26:00. > :26:03.is only one party at this juncture refusing to form a Government, and

:26:04. > :26:07.people see that very strident tone in terms of the community I come

:26:08. > :26:12.from the people I represent, and if the turn in Unionist areas is up, I

:26:13. > :26:17.would say that is a reaction to the strident tone that Sinn Fein has

:26:18. > :26:27.taken, particularly, I have to say, since Michelle O'Neill became the

:26:28. > :26:38.leader. For now, thank you very much indeed. Let's hear more from Conor

:26:39. > :26:43.McAuley, four counts taking place. I wonder how things have advanced

:26:44. > :26:46.since last we spoke. Were picking up a little bit of intelligence

:26:47. > :26:51.particularly around the South Down current. It is a little bit

:26:52. > :26:54.difficult because the count is right in the bottom left-hand corner of

:26:55. > :27:01.the hall, and we weren't allowed any further than this barrier. But I had

:27:02. > :27:06.a word with Chris Hazzard, and what he said was it was neck and neck,

:27:07. > :27:13.and he was talking principally in areas around Downpatrick, he said it

:27:14. > :27:18.was neck and neck there, and that would be Margaret Ritchie's kind of

:27:19. > :27:23.home turf, so is he -- service in to think that is a good indication for

:27:24. > :27:27.them. Some DUP sources say the DUP is an appalling the Ulster Unionists

:27:28. > :27:33.in South down by a ratio four to one. They say those thoughts are

:27:34. > :27:37.staying at home, so that doesn't seem to be the tactical voting for

:27:38. > :27:41.Margaret Ritchie that perhaps she may need. Jim Wells says he thinks

:27:42. > :27:49.there is some tad cavorting still going on, but done in the --

:27:50. > :27:53.tactical voting. But the Sinn Fein tally people looking confident, they

:27:54. > :28:00.may well have taken a seat. In Upper Bann, the DUP vote apparently is

:28:01. > :28:05.holding up well. I told John O'Dowd is polling well, and in the last few

:28:06. > :28:08.minutes I've had a word with Doug Beattie, who is privately conceding

:28:09. > :28:13.I think that his challenge is finished. Lagan Valley, I heard you

:28:14. > :28:26.talking about, we've just had it officially. The Lagan Valley turnout

:28:27. > :28:30.is 62.24%. Thanks so much indeed. Did you hear Conor McAuley saying

:28:31. > :28:37.that privately Doug Beattie seems to be suggesting that it's not going to

:28:38. > :28:40.work this time? I mean, there are trends emerging that counts, and

:28:41. > :28:47.people are in a better position to comment on that, but Upper Bann was

:28:48. > :28:51.always a difficult seat for the Ulster Unionists to snatch, so it

:28:52. > :28:58.would be a significant win were we to achieve it. But let's wait a

:28:59. > :29:04.while longer, hopefully were not far away from real results rather than

:29:05. > :29:14.speculation. McCarthy from Sinn Fein has joined us. Thanks for joining

:29:15. > :29:17.us. Matt Carthy. Christopher said that's for some time he has

:29:18. > :29:23.identified a much more strident tone from Sinn Fein in public discourse,

:29:24. > :29:28.if you don't agree with us, tough luck effectively was what he was

:29:29. > :29:33.saying. And he says the people that he talks to the people he represents

:29:34. > :29:37.a very uncomfortable with that. I'm sorry if we've Christopher

:29:38. > :29:41.uncomfortable, but I think he must have missed what Sinn Fein have been

:29:42. > :29:44.saying for the past number of months, which is that we need to

:29:45. > :29:50.implement agreements that had already been agreed by and by

:29:51. > :29:58.governments, in order that we can restore the Executive and the

:29:59. > :30:00.Assembly on a sound footing. So that we can deliver on the Good Friday

:30:01. > :30:05.Agreement and the subsequent agreements. We don't know yet what

:30:06. > :30:09.were the votes have gone, but Sinn Fein went to the electorate asking

:30:10. > :30:15.people to endorse our platform in relation to Brexit, I still think

:30:16. > :30:18.there are parties including Christopher's who have not come to

:30:19. > :30:32.the comprehensive -- on pension of how great a threat to the north but

:30:33. > :30:37.the entire island of Ireland Brexit represents, we clearly requested a

:30:38. > :30:40.mandate to restore the institutions on the basis of respect honesty and

:30:41. > :30:51.integrity, and the basis that we need to see the fulfilment those

:30:52. > :30:57.agreements. Of course, the dispute... Christopher is back. We

:30:58. > :31:08.are having a sticky cup of coffee? -- were you getting a sticky cup of

:31:09. > :31:16.coffee? Anyway, welcome back. Matt is Sinn Fein's MEP since 2014. When

:31:17. > :31:23.I put your point to Matt, he bounced back the "Equality, integrity and

:31:24. > :31:30.respect". So he's not having it, he doesn't believe there is a strident

:31:31. > :31:40.or short-term from his party. War, I speak for the community I represent,

:31:41. > :31:45.and that is the impression they get. When you serve on respect, and the

:31:46. > :31:48.people but do that stand on a platform and tell the electorate

:31:49. > :31:52.they are proud of the freedom struggle of the republican movement,

:31:53. > :31:59.what is that is not disrespectful to people who lost their lives, when

:32:00. > :32:06.you have elected politicians seeking to gain retrospective approval for

:32:07. > :32:11.the armed campaign of the provisional IRA, that provokes

:32:12. > :32:15.offence and causes hurt among the community, and I don't just mean

:32:16. > :32:20.Unionists, but among the communities who suffered as a consequence of

:32:21. > :32:26.that. Union-macro when we talk about, and again this is down to

:32:27. > :32:33.perceptions, we are not asking Christopher or the DUP to stop being

:32:34. > :32:39.who they are, to change their outlook on life, we absolutely

:32:40. > :32:46.understand that they have a different world in terms of the

:32:47. > :32:50.constitutional question here in Ireland, in terms of their view of

:32:51. > :32:54.the conflict, and we need to be able to deal with those in a mature way

:32:55. > :33:01.and deal with them in a pragmatic way. So what we need absolutely, and

:33:02. > :33:04.I think everybody is saying it, we did the restoration of the

:33:05. > :33:09.Executive, and to ensure that the Executive is restored on a sound

:33:10. > :33:15.footing, so we are not back in this position 12 months down the line. We

:33:16. > :33:19.know what caused the Executive... But your party has put red

:33:20. > :33:26.limestone, Michelle O'Neill made it clear in a lengthy interview I did

:33:27. > :33:30.with her, she said "I couldn't be clearer. We will not go back into

:33:31. > :33:36.Government with Arlene Foster in the office of the First Minister, this

:33:37. > :33:46.side of the R H I investigation reporting. " So you can't say that

:33:47. > :33:53.you are not contributing to the situation. Let's remember the

:33:54. > :33:58.reasons why the Executive collapsed. But you don't have to put that red

:33:59. > :34:06.line down. You are macro but the RHI scandal was a scandal, of April --

:34:07. > :34:13.of -- which would ensure... What we are saying, pending that

:34:14. > :34:19.investigation, it is untenable but you would put somebody who has the

:34:20. > :34:24.questions hanging over them... But there are consequences for that.

:34:25. > :34:30.Nobody is trying to reduce the significance of the issues, but as a

:34:31. > :34:33.starting point we need to accept that the institutions were

:34:34. > :34:34.established on the principle of partnership, and the DUP forgot but

:34:35. > :34:47.along the way. -- forgot that. Various other representatives or

:34:48. > :34:58.candidates are turning up account centres. I sat on Belfast City

:34:59. > :35:06.Council for 11 years. Sitting across from me are people if I printed out

:35:07. > :35:10.the charge sheets, oh they be able to paper my office. You said you

:35:11. > :35:15.wanted to go to the country can you enter the country, the country

:35:16. > :35:18.returned the DUP is the biggest party in Northern Ireland. Arlene

:35:19. > :35:23.Foster of the mandated leader of unionism. I don't get to choose US

:35:24. > :35:28.it across the assembly chamber for. I don't get to choose who I worked

:35:29. > :35:32.with in council. Had I got to choose, there are lots of people I

:35:33. > :35:38.would choose not to work with. They were elected by their community. My

:35:39. > :35:44.community mandated Arlene Foster to be the leader of unionism. It is

:35:45. > :35:49.monumental arrogance for Sinn Fein to try to dictate to us who the

:35:50. > :35:59.leader of unionism is, when I cannot dictate who the leader of national

:36:00. > :36:05.listeners. This is not about nationalism or unionism. This is to

:36:06. > :36:10.hold the leader and vice leader. There are a lot of challenges facing

:36:11. > :36:16.our country. Big monumental challenges that will impact on

:36:17. > :36:26.people's lives who are not even born yet. What we need to ensure that we

:36:27. > :36:34.talk in a level-headed and honest way. Fortunately we have a situation

:36:35. > :36:48.where Christopher's party campaign for breaks it. And used dodgy money.

:36:49. > :36:52.For Sinn Fein to Zoko by dodgy money is incredible. The Northern Bank is

:36:53. > :36:57.a few miles up the road. The point I'm making is there a lot of

:36:58. > :37:02.communities out there you have a greater sense of the economic and

:37:03. > :37:07.political and social disaster breaks it have presented them the DUP. We

:37:08. > :37:15.need some perspective. There are genuine issues in terms of how

:37:16. > :37:20.things worked out. There are general grievances that need to be

:37:21. > :37:24.progressed. We need a reality check. The RH and I will cost us 30 minute

:37:25. > :37:29.pounds a year. We don't have a health service being properly run.

:37:30. > :37:34.We don't have proper executive plan on breaks it. It is causing untold

:37:35. > :37:38.financial and economic damage to Northern Ireland. We need to get

:37:39. > :37:43.round the table and saw these things out in a functioning assembly and

:37:44. > :37:46.executive. The issues ever are important, but we're losing the run

:37:47. > :37:51.of ourselves, in terms of the impact the deadlock is having. I accept

:37:52. > :37:55.that, the message on the doors, the doors that I knocked on during the

:37:56. > :38:00.course of this election was that people want to see the institutions

:38:01. > :38:07.restored as quickly as possible at Stormont. It is going to be slightly

:38:08. > :38:16.bizarre if the outcome of this election squeezes further the Centre

:38:17. > :38:20.parties. Making it less possible for overall agreement to happen early. A

:38:21. > :38:26.quick word on this. I agree entirely. I think people will see

:38:27. > :38:30.snatches they grieve if in both of what Matt and Christopher said. Both

:38:31. > :38:36.those politicians are only really seen the perspective of their narrow

:38:37. > :38:39.electorate. You have to look at the bigger picture. It is a big picture

:38:40. > :38:45.in Northern Ireland. He just got more complex. The self-indulgence of

:38:46. > :38:53.we're knocking to have a government until we sort out our issues. If the

:38:54. > :38:57.SNP going to go into government? We are prepared to, I'm not saying we

:38:58. > :39:02.will not. Under what terms only going to go into government? We're

:39:03. > :39:08.not negotiating. There are talks that will resolve this issue this

:39:09. > :39:12.expecting Sinn Fein to adhere to a different standard? When not saying

:39:13. > :39:21.that's call the whole thing. Neither is Sinn Fein. I believe dart Sinn

:39:22. > :39:26.Fein will be ready for talks on Monday. You remain to Mecca size of

:39:27. > :39:35.the same coin, only representing Finn interest. -- fairy small

:39:36. > :39:43.interests. Let's take a breather around this table. I want even. I

:39:44. > :39:47.would for McGovern tomorrow -- I would form a government tomorrow.

:39:48. > :39:52.There are no red lines. We can form a government tomorrow. Other issues

:39:53. > :39:57.can be in parallel to the establishment of a government. We

:39:58. > :40:01.cannot form an executive on quicksand. We have learned, if

:40:02. > :40:04.anything, in the past number of months, unless you put in solid

:40:05. > :40:12.foundations so we can deal with the real issues. Let me tell Matt khadi

:40:13. > :40:17.something. When the finger was pointed squarely at the Republican

:40:18. > :40:21.movement for a murder of a man in this city, we kept the government of

:40:22. > :40:24.Northern Ireland giving and took serious flak from people in our own

:40:25. > :40:28.community and expected us to walk away. We kept the government of

:40:29. > :40:34.Northern Ireland going. You brought the government down because he saw

:40:35. > :40:36.electoral opportunity. A response. Martin McGuinness collapsed the

:40:37. > :40:42.executive because the executive was not working. The DUP were not

:40:43. > :40:46.adhering to the principles of respect and appearing the Good

:40:47. > :40:49.Friday Agreement. There were much more serious threats to good

:40:50. > :40:53.government in Northern Ireland in the past. Stand the one which caused

:40:54. > :40:58.Martin McGuinness to pull out of government. Absolutely Martin

:40:59. > :41:03.McGuinness only took the move any decision he did as an absolute last

:41:04. > :41:07.resort. He did not want to have to make statement he did in January. He

:41:08. > :41:12.did not want to bring down the executive. Neither did anybody in

:41:13. > :41:19.Sinn Fein. Let's press the pause button. We will come back to that,

:41:20. > :41:23.pick it up in a moment or two. I want to bring in the SDLP. At the

:41:24. > :41:32.North Antrim and Mid Ulster can. In Ballymena. Good evening, thank you

:41:33. > :41:38.for joining us. You were a candidate in the 2013 Westminster by-election

:41:39. > :41:48.for the SDLP. You have Francie Molloy the won and again in 2015. Do

:41:49. > :41:51.you miss the candidates' bars on a night like this. I was always one of

:41:52. > :41:55.those guys who enjoys the number crunching of the turnouts, the

:41:56. > :41:58.polls, the swings and roundabouts. That make up elections and the

:41:59. > :42:03.formation of government. The exit polls in Britain are tantalising for

:42:04. > :42:07.any of those political people like myself, and those on the panel, what

:42:08. > :42:12.the implications are. What is the formation of the government going to

:42:13. > :42:16.be? Duplications for Theresa May as leader of the Tory party. Could

:42:17. > :42:20.there be a coalition between Labour, and the SNP? Implications of that

:42:21. > :42:25.for Brexit. Those are the thoughts going through our heads. As we

:42:26. > :42:30.discussed in the quieter moments downstairs, and have a breather

:42:31. > :42:34.between breaks and counts. All the more important that the SDLP has a

:42:35. > :42:38.voice in Westminster from your point of view. I don't know who you have

:42:39. > :42:42.been talking to, Clare has been on a smartphone chatting to people. I

:42:43. > :42:47.assume you have been talking to colleagues across the country. What

:42:48. > :42:51.vibe have you been picking up. Would were confident he will hang onto

:42:52. > :42:55.your three seats? I genuinely don't know, I have not been speaking to

:42:56. > :42:59.some colleagues in other constituencies. One or two macro,

:43:00. > :43:05.yes. The clear message: coming for this evening, and in many ways, pity

:43:06. > :43:08.we could not have this yesterday, that exit poll did not come out

:43:09. > :43:14.until after the election. The clear message is make your of account. If

:43:15. > :43:20.it is is narrow and close the exit polls are saying, those votes in

:43:21. > :43:26.Westminster will count. What you make of the national picture from a

:43:27. > :43:32.UK wide? As the joint broadcasters exit poll is concerned? I will say

:43:33. > :43:37.it again, I've said it before, comes in a health warning. If the figures

:43:38. > :43:40.turn out be broadly correct, not a good night for Theresa May. She has

:43:41. > :43:46.made a bad miscalculation calling the election. Absolutely, if she has

:43:47. > :43:53.called an election, and moves back into government with an increase,

:43:54. > :43:56.and a handful of seats, her judgment has been questioned. People within

:43:57. > :44:01.her own party will be saying why have this election to have exactly

:44:02. > :44:06.the same outcome. If there is a few extra seats thrown in, still her

:44:07. > :44:10.judgment will be questioned. She sought a mandate, a strong mandate

:44:11. > :44:14.to go into negotiations with breaks it. If she does not receive that,

:44:15. > :44:19.she has problems within their own ranks. Not least of all, with those

:44:20. > :44:25.people we were promised and pro brings it in the first place. Of

:44:26. > :44:29.course there will be people within her Roman her own ranks questioning

:44:30. > :44:34.her judgment calling the election. There could be leadership issues

:44:35. > :44:39.very quickly. As her judgment is being questioned. Also opening up on

:44:40. > :44:44.the other side, as referred to the ramifications for the Labour Party,

:44:45. > :44:52.if Jeremy Corbyn has consolidated his position, improved his position.

:44:53. > :44:57.Politically if there are enough votes, SNP, Labour Party,

:44:58. > :45:07.potentially 80 seats from the SDLP, you could be looking at something to

:45:08. > :45:11.the benefit of the North, in the issue of Brexit, how we consolidate

:45:12. > :45:17.in the north to the interest of everyone. Other issues such as

:45:18. > :45:22.welfare reform, student fees, or those matters that Jeremy Corbyn has

:45:23. > :45:29.made assurances of, for people less well off in society. Good to talk to

:45:30. > :45:39.you, Patsy. Thank you very much for joining us. From the North Antrim

:45:40. > :45:45.camps. I'm joined from another camp in Banga, Mr Nesbitt, how does this

:45:46. > :45:53.feel at this early stage in proceedings? Jim Shannon, he's home

:45:54. > :46:00.on a boat. The tallies that I saw him way, way out in front. Perfect

:46:01. > :46:11.hat-trick for Jim. He won in 2010, retaining it in 2015.

:46:12. > :46:21.Something of the order of 20,000. Leaves myself and Kellie Armstrong

:46:22. > :46:25.of the Alliance party in a fight for second place, in the foothills, with

:46:26. > :46:30.Jim whelks const only top of mountain. How do you feel about

:46:31. > :46:42.that. Presumably you would have liked to have been successful. Do

:46:43. > :46:47.you think your voters held up? I don't know what my voters. When the

:46:48. > :46:52.election was called, I was happy to put my name forward. I thought it

:46:53. > :46:57.was important for people in this constituency to haven't asked the

:46:58. > :47:01.union is on the ballot paper. I was delighted to be selected by the

:47:02. > :47:07.Association. I was an absolutely no doubt about the prospects, Jim

:47:08. > :47:11.started with a five figure lead. And with the current political climate,

:47:12. > :47:17.people on the unionist side being speeds, going for the big party. I

:47:18. > :47:20.was realistic enough to realise it was Mission Impossible, to become

:47:21. > :47:25.the next member of Parliament for Strangford. I'm hearing from some of

:47:26. > :47:31.my colleagues that your colleagues, your Ulster Unionist Party

:47:32. > :47:36.colleagues in South Antrim feel that Dani Kinahan may be losing that

:47:37. > :47:43.seat. Does that come as a great surprise? I knew it was going to be

:47:44. > :47:50.tight. He made a great impact over two macro years. And he had the

:47:51. > :47:54.luxury of a full five-year mandate, I would have put my mortgage on him

:47:55. > :48:02.retaining the sea. To retain it after just two macro years was a

:48:03. > :48:06.very big ask. The political climate has altered in the last 25 months.

:48:07. > :48:11.Not least in South Antrim itself. Back in 2015, he was up against

:48:12. > :48:17.William McCrea, the outgoing member of Parliament. Certainly without

:48:18. > :48:22.wishing to be unkind, or personal that William McCrea, there was a

:48:23. > :48:27.mood for change, which is not replicated, because the change took

:48:28. > :48:33.effect in 2015. Because of the fact that Danny only had two macro years

:48:34. > :48:37.at Westminster, it was a very big ask. I hope he will do it. I did

:48:38. > :48:43.canvass for him. I realised it was going to be tight. I hope he

:48:44. > :48:48.squeezes over the line. You are saying made Jim Shannon home in a

:48:49. > :48:51.boat. We have been talking to people in various constituencies, looking

:48:52. > :48:56.good for David Simpson, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson says in his constituency

:48:57. > :49:04.there has been a significant swing to the DUP. Sammy Wilson's tale is

:49:05. > :49:08.up. Paul Girvan, we have just discussed in South Antrim. Looks

:49:09. > :49:11.like potentially there has been the DUP reaction to what happened in

:49:12. > :49:17.March, getting the vote out. Doing pretty well.

:49:18. > :49:24.I think there was going to be an equal and opposite sort of reaction

:49:25. > :49:30.to what happened in March, and the surge in the national -- --

:49:31. > :49:35.Nationalist Republican vote, and the UUP is going to take the brunt of

:49:36. > :49:40.the impact on that, but that doesn't take away from my belief in the

:49:41. > :49:44.relevance of the Ulster Unionist Party, in the need to regenerate and

:49:45. > :49:51.rejuvenate the middle ground, with the SDLP, and while that day may not

:49:52. > :49:57.be today or maybe not tomorrow, I think that they will come, it will

:49:58. > :50:02.be for the benefit of all the people of Northern Ireland, because we are

:50:03. > :50:05.not going away as Unionists, Nationalists are not going away and

:50:06. > :50:11.neither are Republicans, and we will have to learn how to model along on

:50:12. > :50:18.this piece of earth. We were maybe talk to you later, but for now, Mike

:50:19. > :50:22.Nesbitt, thanks very much. Mike Nesbitt effectively conceding that

:50:23. > :50:28.he isn't going to win that seat in Strangford and Jim Shannon is, I

:50:29. > :50:34.think, home in a boat was the phrase he used. If there is a battle

:50:35. > :50:38.between traditional unionism in the shape of the DUP and more moderate

:50:39. > :50:46.liberal unionism, you maybe didn't like the word "Liberal, --" it seems

:50:47. > :50:54.that the former is very much in the ascendant. What seems to be emerging

:50:55. > :50:58.from the selection is that in the rebound from the Assembly election

:50:59. > :51:05.held in March, a couple of months ago, the unionist electorate have

:51:06. > :51:09.gravitated towards the stronger electoral base of the DUP. And

:51:10. > :51:15.consequently it may well be that we will be squeezed as a result of

:51:16. > :51:19.that. And that was in some ways inevitable, given the reaction that

:51:20. > :51:29.there was within grassroots unionism to the loss of first of all so many

:51:30. > :51:32.seats, and the overall Unionist -- perceived Unionist majority at

:51:33. > :51:40.Stormont. So I think that is where the reaction has come in, and in

:51:41. > :51:46.some ways it was predictable. So let's wait for actual results, and

:51:47. > :51:52.let's see what the outcome is, but those factors were -- were there,

:51:53. > :52:00.either, and may well result after we see the results. Quick response to

:52:01. > :52:06.this, Matt, Al Askew, West Belfast turnout, 65%, it was 50 62 years

:52:07. > :52:14.ago. That would suggest that Sinn Fein has got its vote out better

:52:15. > :52:21.than in 2015? This is happening at a big-time. I think some commentators

:52:22. > :52:26.haven't fully grasped the significance of what happened in

:52:27. > :52:31.March, because it wasn't just -- it was a state that was established on

:52:32. > :52:35.the premise of having a permanent Unionist majority, no longer has

:52:36. > :52:41.that majority in terms of the Assembly here. So obviously there

:52:42. > :52:46.are going to be the workings of that. What I would like to see in

:52:47. > :52:51.the months and years ahead, is that we can actually start having a

:52:52. > :52:56.conversation together, about what the options are for us moving

:52:57. > :53:03.forward. Your worldview is enormously different to

:53:04. > :53:07.Christopher's worldview. -- if Christopher 's's party is the

:53:08. > :53:10.biggest Unionist party, and yours is the biggest nationalist, there is

:53:11. > :53:17.polarisation, but at the end of the day you have got to do business

:53:18. > :53:20.together. I have a worldview as you say which is different to

:53:21. > :53:26.Christopher's. I want to see a united Ireland. I am never going to

:53:27. > :53:31.get Christopher to vote in favour of that, but I want to talk to him and

:53:32. > :53:40.people who support him, to find out what we can do to make the option of

:53:41. > :53:45.a united Ireland more... And if you cannot persuade him, are you going

:53:46. > :53:50.to stop talking about it? Know, and OK, Christopher is a Unionist, he is

:53:51. > :53:53.going to vote in favour of maintaining the union, I will be

:53:54. > :53:57.advocating for a united Ireland. What I want to do is ensure that if

:53:58. > :54:03.it comes to a point where a united Ireland is the majority option, and

:54:04. > :54:06.that is what people vote for, the people like Christopher, while they

:54:07. > :54:13.may not like that and so, will be comfortable in the new Ireland we

:54:14. > :54:18.create. What is wrong with that? Sinn Fein cannot claim victory from

:54:19. > :54:23.a minority situation, in the same way that Jeremy Corbyn cannot.

:54:24. > :54:29.Ultimately, if the exit polls are right, the Conservatives are by far,

:54:30. > :54:33.by some distance, the largest party, and it would appear on current

:54:34. > :54:37.trends and what we are hearing in Northern Ireland, the DUP are going

:54:38. > :54:45.to do very well, and certainly out Paul Sinn Fein. So you cannot claim

:54:46. > :54:54.victory from a minority situation if you are Sinn Fein or Jeremy Corbyn.

:54:55. > :54:58.But you can say that within this state, these 18 constituencies, Sinn

:54:59. > :55:04.Fein are going to have -- are going to represent a lot of people. But

:55:05. > :55:09.they are attempting to manufacture a border pole for which there is no

:55:10. > :55:17.basis. And the electorate will clearly reflect that tonight. There

:55:18. > :55:23.isn't the basis under the present law, under the Belfast agreement. At

:55:24. > :55:36.some point there is going to be a unity pole. Claire's party agrees

:55:37. > :55:40.there needs to be a referendum, but not within the next five years. You

:55:41. > :55:45.can do what happened with the Brexit vote, you can throw it on people and

:55:46. > :55:49.people have a debate on the extract and then you have a result nobody is

:55:50. > :55:54.prepared for, we can start preparing the debate now so that we can start

:55:55. > :56:00.talking about the options, wobble Irish unity looked like? We have a

:56:01. > :56:06.devolved administration? -- what will Irish unity look like? Let's

:56:07. > :56:18.have the conversation now. Hang on, don't all speak at once. I want to

:56:19. > :56:25.hear from Christopher. Matt is entitled to make the case for a

:56:26. > :56:31.border referendum. He is entitled to aspire for a united Ireland. But

:56:32. > :56:36.listening to this existential discussion about the point or timing

:56:37. > :56:44.of a future unity referendum, should there be sufficient demand, our

:56:45. > :56:51.people at home, when they hear these sorts of conversations, they want to

:56:52. > :56:55.turn the TV off. And some people might think that a stand-alone piece

:56:56. > :57:06.of legislation is better than dealing with the problems we have,

:57:07. > :57:11.people like hospital trolleys... But people are entitled to make their

:57:12. > :57:17.case. And I am entitled to say as an elected representative, they want us

:57:18. > :57:25.to get back to Stormont and they want us dealing with and now. This

:57:26. > :57:28.is a game, they did it with RHI, and they are attempted to do it with

:57:29. > :57:37.Brexit. Because chaos suits Sinn Fein. He says he wants to see

:57:38. > :57:48.Stormont restored as soon as possible. Can I finish. The message

:57:49. > :57:52.is they are using the decision taken by the people, including 44% of the

:57:53. > :58:01.people of Northern Ireland, who just dismiss. I want to bring Claye in,

:58:02. > :58:08.but let us pause for a second. I will come to you, but we've got

:58:09. > :58:12.David Ford, the former Alliance leader Johnny us from his

:58:13. > :58:22.constituency of Southampton. -- joining us. -- South Antrim. South

:58:23. > :58:27.Antrim and East Antrim being counted there, Sammy Wilson said he is

:58:28. > :58:31.confident of being returned there. What about South Antrim, it was

:58:32. > :58:40.described as a genuine yellow constituency. Have you any sense of

:58:41. > :58:46.how it is going? -- yo-yo. Are reckoning is that the DUP have

:58:47. > :58:51.definitely secured South Antrim. A smaller margin of votes over the

:58:52. > :58:55.Ulster Unionists than the -- in the Assembly election, but nonetheless

:58:56. > :59:01.-- nonetheless a significant majority. Turnout is up 9% on 2015I

:59:02. > :59:09.gather, again we can't be sure but it suggests that the DUP's got its

:59:10. > :59:12.vote out. There is no doubt that the way the campaign was running, the

:59:13. > :59:19.fear and concern that were spread around the issue of the growing Sinn

:59:20. > :59:21.Fein vote earlier in the year, even intervention of the LCC, was

:59:22. > :59:29.calculated to increase the DUP votes. Whoever it was at the expense

:59:30. > :59:33.of. You would be more attuned or more supportive I would have thought

:59:34. > :59:36.to the more moderate unionism of Danny Kinahan than the more

:59:37. > :59:42.conservative traditional unionism of Paul Girvan. Bodel you are not

:59:43. > :59:54.accusing me of being a conservative Shirley?! -- you are not accusing

:59:55. > :00:01.me, surely, of being a conservative. Beck I accept you are not a

:00:02. > :00:08.Unionist. That don't talk about what kind of unionism I prefer, Mark.

:00:09. > :00:14.Does it matter, are you perfectly relaxed then if Paul Girvan takes

:00:15. > :00:25.the seat of the Danny Kinahan? -- over Danny Kinahan? Bodel I am and

:00:26. > :00:29.Alliance MLA. Neither Unionist candidate agrees with me. Same as

:00:30. > :00:33.neither Nationalist candidate agrees with me on this point either. So in

:00:34. > :00:39.that sense it is relatively irrelevant as to who is the MP for

:00:40. > :00:43.South Antrim, since it appears to be definitely either DUP are Ulster

:00:44. > :00:50.Unionist tonight. Same make no distinction between any brand of

:00:51. > :00:55.unionism? -- so you make. I am saying if this was an STV election I

:00:56. > :01:00.would have considered how I would use my later preferences, but it

:01:01. > :01:09.wasn't, so I cast my first past the post vote. I appreciate you are

:01:10. > :01:13.standing in the leisure centre, and you may not have a hotline to the

:01:14. > :01:18.Titanic exhibition centre in Belfast, but have you picked up

:01:19. > :01:22.anything, any straws in the wind about East Belfast in particular,

:01:23. > :01:29.which presumably you are helping Naomi Long is going to win back for

:01:30. > :01:34.the Alliance Party? As I've just been saying to some of your

:01:35. > :01:38.colleagues, one of the ironies of being at an election count is that

:01:39. > :01:43.you get engrossed in the constituency you are interested in,

:01:44. > :01:47.I hardly know what is going on elsewhere. But there was clearly a

:01:48. > :01:51.difficulty building up for anyone standing against the two largest

:01:52. > :01:56.blocks. In terms of the way this election was being presented. And

:01:57. > :02:01.was erroneously being presented as a tussle between the DUP and Sinn

:02:02. > :02:08.Fein. It shouldn't have been in East Belfast, but there is no doubt that,

:02:09. > :02:11.alongside the comments from the LCC, it caused significant concern

:02:12. > :02:19.against some people -- amongst some people. But we will see later on. A

:02:20. > :02:23.couple of sentences on the national picture, if this exit poll turns out

:02:24. > :02:30.to be correct? A bad day at the office for Theresa May? An

:02:31. > :02:36.incredibly bad day, for somebody who started off six weeks ago demanding

:02:37. > :02:42.a stronger mandate, with her leading by 20% or so, and now she appears to

:02:43. > :02:48.probably, assuming your exit poll is right, and your exit polls do tend

:02:49. > :02:52.to be slightly more accurate than some people's, may well have lost a

:02:53. > :02:55.majority. The difficulty is that there doesn't seem to be any

:02:56. > :03:00.coherent majority on those numbers, at a time of the UK is facing great

:03:01. > :03:05.difficulties brought about by the campaign to leave the EU. Those who

:03:06. > :03:09.campaign for Brexit last year, and told frankly a set of falsehoods

:03:10. > :03:15.about money that would go to the NHS, are now proving that they are

:03:16. > :03:19.not capable of winning a majority in parliament, but not as anybody else,

:03:20. > :03:22.at a time when we face difficult decisions over negotiations. Clearly

:03:23. > :03:28.the case for a second referendum on the terms of whatever deal is agreed

:03:29. > :03:32.has now become so difficult a stronger, because nobody can trust

:03:33. > :03:37.either Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn to have a full negotiation mandate to

:03:38. > :03:44.speak for the entire country. David, thank you very much. David Ford,

:03:45. > :03:52.joining me there. Joining me from South Antrim. I promised you,

:03:53. > :04:04.Kluwer, but I would come back to you. Brexit has slammed the

:04:05. > :04:11.constitutional question back into our argument. Parties that say you

:04:12. > :04:16.can't have a view on that you are sectarian, these are no issues we

:04:17. > :04:21.are dealing with, but what I hear in the conversation is not any meeting

:04:22. > :04:25.of minds, it is dominance, division, and nothing about the

:04:26. > :04:28.practicalities, and the practicalities of how a united

:04:29. > :04:32.Ireland would look. The work hasn't been done on that, but it is also

:04:33. > :04:37.distracting from the practicalities of how we work this place in the

:04:38. > :04:44.here now. If the tallies are bearing out like this, the seat tally would

:04:45. > :04:48.show the is only those two hardened views, but it shows this --

:04:49. > :05:03.unsuitability of first past the post.

:05:04. > :05:16.That is what is sad, the conversations do not get into the

:05:17. > :05:40.practicalities. Nations in the next ten minutes in

:05:41. > :05:46.Bangor. We'll keep an eye on that. Good evening, thank you for joining

:05:47. > :05:48.us. What are you hearing? Strong suggestions Doug Beattie were not

:05:49. > :05:55.managed to win the seat. David Simpson. Is that what you are

:05:56. > :06:03.picking up? The tallies need to be looked at. The tallies are going to

:06:04. > :06:07.computer programmes, to see what the electorate have decided. We will

:06:08. > :06:14.have a clue in the next few hours as one who will be the next MP. What

:06:15. > :06:22.about your vote? We will have to wait until the final tallies come

:06:23. > :06:27.in. Adding our vote held up. The response around the area has been

:06:28. > :06:35.quite good. The tallies I have seen marks that. I can understand

:06:36. > :06:42.everyone wants news from the centres, but sometimes hard to tell

:06:43. > :06:46.you what the electorate as you say. What about South Down, never the

:06:47. > :06:51.constituencies too began to where you want. A tight race between

:06:52. > :06:59.Margaret Ritchie, and your party. Do you think Mr Hazard can do it? I

:07:00. > :07:03.think he's in with a great call. A lot of buzz around the South Down

:07:04. > :07:10.count. I hear it will be tight. Coming down to a few hundred votes.

:07:11. > :07:18.A Latin interest, and a lot of interesting counts. It would take

:07:19. > :07:26.perhaps 24, 36 hours to absorb the message that the public as sent out,

:07:27. > :07:29.and what we have to go forward to. Starting the negotiations and the

:07:30. > :07:34.talks to restore the power-sharing executive. Thank you for now. We

:07:35. > :07:37.will catch up with you later some of the numbers begin to firm up. John O

:07:38. > :07:49.Dowd, the Sinn Fein candidate in Upper Bann. Let's hear

:07:50. > :07:50.from