Part One

:00:53. > :00:58.Good evening and welcome to the BBC Election Centre. Tonight is the

:00:59. > :01:04.third time in just over two years that we have come here to discover

:01:05. > :01:10.the result of a major UK-wide poll. In 2015, David Cameron's election

:01:11. > :01:14.victory led of course to the 2016 referendum he promised, resulting in

:01:15. > :01:17.the vote for Brexit and Cameron's resignation, then this election

:01:18. > :01:20.called by Theresa May in her words to guarantee stability and certainty

:01:21. > :01:24.for the years ahead. A three-act drama. First indications of whether

:01:25. > :01:30.she's got what she wanted or whether Jeremy Corbyn's a dashed her hopes

:01:31. > :01:34.will come with the exit poll at 10. Who gets to Number Ten? To Jeremy

:01:35. > :01:39.Vine's finishing line. Welcome to our virtual Downing Street where we

:01:40. > :01:43.watched in 2015 as Conservative constituencies paved a path to

:01:44. > :01:48.Number Ten and Labour were left a long way behind. What will happen

:01:49. > :01:53.tonight? Will the Conservatives get the 326 seats they need to win

:01:54. > :01:58.outright? Or will Labour close the gap? Earlier today the party leaders

:01:59. > :02:03.were filmed casting their votes, just as nearly 47 million of us had

:02:04. > :02:07.the right to do. And the first actual result will help confirm or

:02:08. > :02:12.cast doubt on this exit poll. In the race to be first to deliver, it's

:02:13. > :02:19.Newcastle and Sunderland going head-to-head and sew Fay ray worth

:02:20. > :02:26.is in Sunderland. These are some of the 80 sixth formers poised to grab

:02:27. > :02:30.the ballot boxes. Sunderland South has been the first to declare since

:02:31. > :02:33.1992. This year they have competition. Newcastle is after

:02:34. > :02:40.their crown. Can they do it? We should know in about 45 minutes'

:02:41. > :02:45.time. Our team here in the election p Election Centre will be gathering

:02:46. > :02:51.the results, analysing the contests and updating our predictions. Emily

:02:52. > :02:54.mately is able to look at each of the 650 individual constituencies

:02:55. > :02:59.and delve into their deep political make-up. Never before have we gone

:03:00. > :03:05.into an election with such diverse predictions. This is where we

:03:06. > :03:08.discover what the results will be. My giant touch screen has all the

:03:09. > :03:16.data. In a moment I should be able to predict which seats could be

:03:17. > :03:21.changing hands. And Mishaal Hussain will be joined by politicians and

:03:22. > :03:25.commentators to assess why what happened happened and what the

:03:26. > :03:29.likely conwhenses are. I'm here throughout the night getting

:03:30. > :03:33.thoughts, views and verdicts on what the message delivered by the people

:03:34. > :03:40.mean force the parties, policies and some political careers. With me, our

:03:41. > :03:43.Political Correspondent Laura Kuenssberg talking about the exit

:03:44. > :03:48.poll with a few moments to go. Just over 20 seconds to go until Big Ben

:03:49. > :03:55.strikes ten, then I'll be able to reveal the results of the BBC, ITV

:03:56. > :04:01.and Sky joint poll. Over 30,000 people, 144 polling stations were

:04:02. > :04:05.questioned today and by the magic, we are able to predict what we think

:04:06. > :04:10.has happened tonight. And what we are saying is the

:04:11. > :04:17.Conservatives are the largest party. Note, they don't have an overall

:04:18. > :04:26.majority at this stage. 314 for the Conservatives, that's down 17. 266

:04:27. > :04:30.for Labour, that's Up 34. The SNP, the Scottish National Party, 34,

:04:31. > :04:33.down 22, treat that figure with a bit of caution for technical reasons

:04:34. > :04:44.about the exit poll which I don't need to explain right now. The Lib

:04:45. > :04:49.Dems on 14, up six. Plaid Cymru stays on three, the Greens on one,

:04:50. > :04:55.none for Ukip and the others 18. Well, the Prime Minister called this

:04:56. > :05:00.election because she wanted, as she put it, certainty and stability.

:05:01. > :05:04.This doesn't seem, at this stage, to look like certainty and stability.

:05:05. > :05:10.It could still be that the Conservatives at the end of the day

:05:11. > :05:14.have an overall majority. They need another 12 seats to get that. 326,

:05:15. > :05:21.as Jeremy said a moment ago. That's just the exit poll. The reality, as

:05:22. > :05:24.Sophie was saying, we get the first result in 45 minutes. That is how

:05:25. > :05:29.things look at this stage of the evening. Laura, what do you make of

:05:30. > :05:35.it? If these numbers are correct, Theresa May's played a high-risk

:05:36. > :05:38.political game and she appears to have possibly lost her gamble. She

:05:39. > :05:42.only called this election to give herself her own mandate and some

:05:43. > :05:49.breathing space During the bumpy ride of Brexit. A few months ago at

:05:50. > :05:51.the start of the campaign, she seemed very unasellable. An

:05:52. > :05:56.insurgent Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn may well have dashed the

:05:57. > :06:01.Conservative hopes. This exit poll result is not what either main party

:06:02. > :06:05.have been predicting, privately this would be another political surprise

:06:06. > :06:09.with both the British public again defying the expectations of the two

:06:10. > :06:13.largest political parties. The Tories do still look like they'll be

:06:14. > :06:16.the largest party. They may yet see themselves with a majority. But

:06:17. > :06:19.Theresa May's promise throughout this campaign was to offer strong

:06:20. > :06:25.and stable leadership. That was her catch phrase. She may well end the

:06:26. > :06:29.night diminished with a situation eshe even more uncertain -- even

:06:30. > :06:33.more uncertain. The real results as nay come in through the night will

:06:34. > :06:37.actually dictate what happens next. Maybe at this stage given that we

:06:38. > :06:40.are in this territory of waiting to see whether our exit poll is

:06:41. > :06:44.correct, let's just assume for a moment it is and look at what the

:06:45. > :06:48.new House of Commons would be like, Jeremy, can we do that?

:06:49. > :06:52.Yes, this does feel quite sensational. The key figure is 326,

:06:53. > :06:56.just over half the MPs in the House of Commons gives you a majority,

:06:57. > :07:02.David Cameron got just there in the last election and the exit poll has

:07:03. > :07:07.the Conservatives falling short. So down 17 seats, 314. They can't with

:07:08. > :07:14.their MPs outvote the other MPs in the House of Commons. That is what

:07:15. > :07:17.an overall majority means. As has been said, it would take a bit of

:07:18. > :07:22.error to push the Conservatives over the line. It might happen. It will

:07:23. > :07:27.be a fascinating night. The other parties - Labour first of all 266 up

:07:28. > :07:33.for man 30 seats. The SNP, going down to 34. There are a lot of 50-50

:07:34. > :07:37.calls so that figure may change. The Lib Dems have added six seats we

:07:38. > :07:42.think to their tally, 14 they would have, so that is an improvement for

:07:43. > :07:45.them. The same for Plaid Cymru, three as last time, the Greens

:07:46. > :07:51.having one and the others, the Northern Ireland parties in 18.

:07:52. > :07:54.18 others. So let us go back to the Government benches and stress that

:07:55. > :07:59.this gap here is very small. It's possible that it closes during the

:08:00. > :08:03.night, but at the moment, under our exit poll, the Conservative party

:08:04. > :08:08.have lost their overall majority and will be short by 12 votes. 12 MPs

:08:09. > :08:11.short of an outright majority in the House of Commons. David.

:08:12. > :08:16.Thank you very much, Jeremy. I'm joined by two senior politicians

:08:17. > :08:20.from the two main parties. John McDonnell, Shadow Chancellor for

:08:21. > :08:24.Labour and Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary. Mr Fallon, if

:08:25. > :08:29.this is right, it was a terrible error to call this election in the

:08:30. > :08:33.first place, wasn't it? Let us see some actual results to see if it's

:08:34. > :08:39.borne out. This is a projection, not a result. The exit polls have been

:08:40. > :08:42.wrong in the past, I think in 2015 they underestimated our vote, I

:08:43. > :08:48.think in a couple of elections before that, they overestimated our

:08:49. > :08:52.votes. So we need to see some actual results before we can interpret this

:08:53. > :08:55.one way or the other. Put it like this, if this were to be close to

:08:56. > :08:58.the result, in other words that you maybe just had a majority, you

:08:59. > :09:01.certainly wouldn't have what you were all looking for, which was a

:09:02. > :09:06.big, safe majority in the House of Commons - people were talking about

:09:07. > :09:11.a majority of 30, 40, 50, a few weeks ago? We didn't. I never

:09:12. > :09:15.believed the original poll as showing us 20 polls ahead. In an

:09:16. > :09:18.election, you get a tightening between the major parties, that was

:09:19. > :09:23.clearly happening this time. As I say, it's very early to start on the

:09:24. > :09:27.basis of what is a projection before we've had a single actual result.

:09:28. > :09:32.Let us wait and see the seats coming through. John McDonnell what about

:09:33. > :09:36.you, you are encouraged by the prediction of 34. If that happens,

:09:37. > :09:40.you and Jeremy Corbyn remain in charge of the Labour Party

:09:41. > :09:46.presumably? I'm going to agree with Michael for the first time possibly

:09:47. > :09:50.ever. There you are. We have to have scepticism about all polls at the

:09:51. > :09:53.moment. We've got it wrong in the past in terms of polling so I'm

:09:54. > :09:57.agreeing, let us see some results. So what do you have to say about the

:09:58. > :10:02.election campaign from your point of view? Well, we tried to have an

:10:03. > :10:04.extremely positive campaign, we modelled it around Jeremy's

:10:05. > :10:08.character. If you remember when he stood for the leadership, his slogan

:10:09. > :10:11.at the time was honest politics, straight talking, that's what we

:10:12. > :10:15.have tried to do. A positive campaign throughout. If it's

:10:16. > :10:19.reflected in this sort of level of support, it changes the nature of

:10:20. > :10:24.political discourse to a large extent in our country. So people

:10:25. > :10:27.have got fed up of the yaboo politics and the nasty tactics that

:10:28. > :10:31.have gone on. A positive campaign, if it comes out like this, I think

:10:32. > :10:37.it will improve politics in this country overall. What did you think

:10:38. > :10:40.about their campaign? Very nasty. At times it dragged us into the but

:10:41. > :10:45.thor and I didn't like that. But let us put that to one side. If the

:10:46. > :10:50.result is anywhere near like this, it means positive politics has

:10:51. > :10:56.actually succeeded. Nasty campaign? I don't agree with that. Our focus

:10:57. > :11:00.was on... What were you thinking of? Our campaign focus was on

:11:01. > :11:04.leadership, getting the Brexit negotiations right. It was on

:11:05. > :11:08.setting out some of the big social and economic challenges that faced

:11:09. > :11:12.this country which frankly, leaving aside the personal stuff, Labour

:11:13. > :11:18.ducked and they pretended there was a magic money tree and never really

:11:19. > :11:23.answered... Michael... Let us not refight the campaign. You have

:11:24. > :11:26.Brexit talks starting in 11 days' time, serious talks about the future

:11:27. > :11:30.of this country. It was hardly discussed in the campaign. There was

:11:31. > :11:33.hardly a stall laid out on Brexit. Now if this is right, Theresa May

:11:34. > :11:37.hasn't got the sort of massive support from the country she was

:11:38. > :11:41.hoping to get to allow her to do whatever it is she wanted to do, she

:11:42. > :11:45.never told us? We did bring the campaign back to Brexit. You never

:11:46. > :11:48.said what kind of Brexit you were going to have? We set out the 12

:11:49. > :11:54.negotiating objectives, set out that we want a deep and special

:11:55. > :11:57.partnership with Europe based on economic corporation, being careful

:11:58. > :12:01.about the trade while looking for new markets. We never really got

:12:02. > :12:06.into that. Also on security cooperation. Let's be honest about

:12:07. > :12:10.this... We never got into the debate on Brexit that we should have had

:12:11. > :12:19.but also... Is that your fault as much as his? We genuinely did have a

:12:20. > :12:22.policy. That is the sort of politics people are rejecting - you have got

:12:23. > :12:26.to be straightforward and honest with people and you shouldn't parody

:12:27. > :12:29.other party's political positions. People reject that now. What was

:12:30. > :12:34.interesting was that Theresa May went with one question about Brexit

:12:35. > :12:37.to the electorate and that was going to be the central question of the

:12:38. > :12:42.whole election and people said, there are other issues we want to

:12:43. > :12:47.discuss. OK. I remember the 1974 general election if you remember

:12:48. > :12:51.when the government then Ted Heath went to the country and said who

:12:52. > :12:55.rules Britain, it was the miners' strike at the time and they said,

:12:56. > :13:00.it's not about that, it's about living standards and Public Services

:13:01. > :13:07.and the future of the country. Neither main party got into the

:13:08. > :13:12.details on Brexit. What was called the progressive coalition, it would

:13:13. > :13:18.tot up to 318 seats as opposed to 314 of the Tories. They might be

:13:19. > :13:22.able to rely on the DUP in Northern Ireland but we could be in a

:13:23. > :13:26.position with the combined forces being equal to the Conservatives.

:13:27. > :13:32.That could make for some very interesting days ahead. . Let us

:13:33. > :13:37.remind ourselves of where the exit poll is. We have projected it on the

:13:38. > :13:45.front of New Broadcasting House and I hope we can show you that. There

:13:46. > :13:48.we are. 2017 election, Conservatives the largest party, note not

:13:49. > :13:59.Conservatives at this stage on the exit poll with a majority. Labour on

:14:00. > :14:10.266. That is up 34. The SNP 34, down 22 from disillusion. The other

:14:11. > :14:17.parties there. Ukip 0. Plaid Cymru three. 17 short of an overall

:14:18. > :14:22.majority, the Conservatives. Now to Sunderland. The first result we get

:14:23. > :14:26.from you Sophie will give us a clue whether these gentlemen are feeling

:14:27. > :14:32.more cheerful or less. It certainly will. The ballot boxes are being run

:14:33. > :14:37.in. The first was in here at 10. 03. We have a lot of sixth form student,

:14:38. > :14:41.80 of them, bringing them in and giving them to the counters.

:14:42. > :14:47.Sunderland south has been the fastest to declare, their record is

:14:48. > :14:50.45 minutes, they did it in 48 minutes, but they have Newcastle

:14:51. > :14:55.snapping on their heels so we'll have to wait and see who gets there

:14:56. > :14:59.first tonight. It's a really well oiled machine, they have lighter

:15:00. > :15:03.ballot papers, only folding them in half. They have even checked out the

:15:04. > :15:06.routes to get to this sports centre to make sure the vans take the

:15:07. > :15:10.fastest routes possible. You can see how hard they are all working there.

:15:11. > :15:15.Just to make sure that they do get in here and they retain their crown.

:15:16. > :15:24.Thank you very much. Well, let's go and join Andrew Marr. He's at

:15:25. > :15:27.Maidenhead, where Theresa May's waiting for her count. Good evening,

:15:28. > :15:31.you've heard the exit poll down there. What's the reaction been?

:15:32. > :15:34.Well, the reaction from senior Conservatives and I've talked to a

:15:35. > :15:38.few, is they flatly don't believe it. They say that's not the reaction

:15:39. > :15:43.they've got up and down the country. They've been talking to candidates.

:15:44. > :15:46.It cannot be true. One of the reasons they're saying that is that

:15:47. > :15:48.it would be a huge disaster for the Conservative Party if it was

:15:49. > :15:52.accurate. If you look at the numbers, this whole election was

:15:53. > :15:56.about ensuring that Theresa May had the Leeway to do a proper deal on

:15:57. > :16:01.Brexit afterwards. She needed a bigger majority to do that. She

:16:02. > :16:05.hasn't got that it appears. She can bring in a small platoon of

:16:06. > :16:09.Democratic Unionists from Ireland to help her. She can't do what David

:16:10. > :16:11.Cameron did, in similar circumstances, when he brought in

:16:12. > :16:16.the Liberal Democrats. Because of course, on the great issue of the

:16:17. > :16:19.day, Brexit, the two sides are on completely opposite opinions. She's

:16:20. > :16:24.in real, real trouble. At the moment, we don't believe it is the

:16:25. > :16:29.best they can do. Let's join the other party leader,

:16:30. > :16:36.Nick Robinson is in Islington North, Jeremy Corbyn's seat, in the dark.

:16:37. > :16:45.Good evening, Nick. Have you had a reaction to this exit poll? Jeremy

:16:46. > :16:50.Corbyn arrived here minutes before the exit poll. He looked pretty

:16:51. > :16:53.cheerful as did his spin doctor, chief advisor. Everybody will be

:16:54. > :16:58.extremely cautious about this exit poll because it comes as such a

:16:59. > :17:04.surprise. In line with some of those polls that showed a 1%, 2% Tory

:17:05. > :17:07.lead. It will give enormous power to Jeremy Corbyn, not just within

:17:08. > :17:12.Parliament, but within his party too. There were few people around Mr

:17:13. > :17:16.Corbyn who believed he would win this election. Two years ago, they

:17:17. > :17:19.never believed he would fight this election. They believe they have

:17:20. > :17:25.shifted British politics and shift today for good. They believe that --

:17:26. > :17:33.shifted it for good. They believe they have put ideas that were in the

:17:34. > :17:36.extreme or on the margins, ideas of investment in the NHS and the rest,

:17:37. > :17:40.back firmly in the centre of British politics. He will be strengthened.

:17:41. > :17:43.What he didn't anticipate is that he might have a powerful role to play

:17:44. > :17:48.in the future of this country, when it comes to Brexit. If the exit poll

:17:49. > :17:53.is right, if Theresa May effectively has to do deals in order to get her

:17:54. > :17:56.way, that gives Labour potentially enormous power in terms of the deals

:17:57. > :18:01.they are willing to do and whether they will work with Tory rebels and

:18:02. > :18:06.others when it comes to those crucial votes on Brexit in 2018/19.

:18:07. > :18:09.Thank you very much Nick. We live at this stage in the evening on rumours

:18:10. > :18:13.from places. We have just heard a rumour, I put it no stronger than

:18:14. > :18:18.that, that the Tories may be in trouble in Hastings. It's a tight

:18:19. > :18:21.race there. Amber Rudd, the Home Secretary, who stood in for Theresa

:18:22. > :18:26.May in that debate and is thought to have done a good job, we're told

:18:27. > :18:31.that in Hastings she may be in difficulty. Let's look at some other

:18:32. > :18:35.seats with Emily. Yes, it's impossible to predict at this stage

:18:36. > :18:39.anything too closely. It is impossible to stress too much how

:18:40. > :18:44.delicately we are treading given that the exit poll, as things stand,

:18:45. > :18:49.is untested. We have not had a single result in. But if it is on

:18:50. > :18:54.track, these are some of the seats Tory held at the moment that have a

:18:55. > :19:00.90% chance of turning red, being taken by Labour tonight. Some of

:19:01. > :19:05.them are incredibly tight marginals, Croydon central, Derby north. Some

:19:06. > :19:09.of them are higher up the target list, Bedford, around 11 or 12 on

:19:10. > :19:13.that target list. Let me take you into some. I will show you what we

:19:14. > :19:20.are able to do now. This is Croydon central. The Housing Minister there,

:19:21. > :19:26.the current administration, the Government. You can see what is

:19:27. > :19:30.being projected on the forecast, a likely Labour gain. You can see the

:19:31. > :19:34.Leave vote here split pretty evenly. We don't know if that will come into

:19:35. > :19:39.play. Some of the others that we will show you, Bolton west, Theresa

:19:40. > :19:43.May launched her campaign in this neck of the woods, not this exact

:19:44. > :19:49.seat. Very tightly fought here. They need 0. 8% swing to take it from the

:19:50. > :19:53.Conservatives. The sort of figures that the forecast comes up with

:19:54. > :19:58.suggest Labour would be on a nine-point lead in pretty much all

:19:59. > :20:01.of these seeds. That's why we're -- seats, that's why they have a good

:20:02. > :20:07.chance of taking them. This would go red as well. Bedford, for example,

:20:08. > :20:11.13 on the Labour target list. It looks pretty tight at the moment.

:20:12. > :20:14.Tony Blair took it three times for Labour here. It's not very often

:20:15. > :20:19.you'll hear Jeremy Corbyn and Tony Blair in the same sentence, but we

:20:20. > :20:23.could be looking at some interesting changes of seats. That's all we're

:20:24. > :20:27.going to say here. Bedford there projected to be at least ten points

:20:28. > :20:33.between Labour and the Conservatives. One more, brighton

:20:34. > :20:38.next to the Green seat at the moment. Simon Kirby on this forecast

:20:39. > :20:47.could be out for the Conservatives. We are projecting here a Labour gain

:20:48. > :20:52.with a lead of another 10%. All these, we tread carefully. When we

:20:53. > :20:56.get the first result, we will know whether the exit poll is on track.

:20:57. > :21:00.We are on eggshells at the moment. If you've just joined us, we're not

:21:01. > :21:04.saying that the Conservatives have an overall majority. We're simply

:21:05. > :21:07.saying they're the largest party and a lot of the discussion that we've

:21:08. > :21:11.started having, if the exit poll is true, what are the implications of

:21:12. > :21:15.that. And no-one better perhaps than some of the senior politicians

:21:16. > :21:20.involved in this sort of thing before, Michelle has one with her.

:21:21. > :21:21.With me up here is Ming Campbell, former leader of the Liberal

:21:22. > :21:29.Democrats. Good evening. Good evening. Your reaction to the exit

:21:30. > :21:32.poll? Well, David Dimbleby took the word eggshells right out of my

:21:33. > :21:36.mouth. With the history of these polls in the past, it's very

:21:37. > :21:40.dangerous to seek to draw conclusions, which are totally

:21:41. > :21:44.unchallengeable. One thing is certain, that Mrs May's effort to

:21:45. > :21:49.get a large majority in order to enhance her ability to drive a hard

:21:50. > :21:56.deal with the European Union has simply exploded. If these results

:21:57. > :22:00.are - If these results. The exit poll shows your party adding seats

:22:01. > :22:04.in the House of Commons going up to 14 Liberal Democrat MPs. Could you

:22:05. > :22:09.imagine the Liberal Democrats being part of some sort prove grossive

:22:10. > :22:13.alliance in the Commons? Well, Tim Farron made it very clear, he said

:22:14. > :22:16.no pact, no deal, no coalition. We've had our fingers burned by

:22:17. > :22:23.coalition. I don't need to tell you that. So I find it very, very

:22:24. > :22:28.difficult to see how Tim Farron would be able to go back on what

:22:29. > :22:30.he's previously said and to persuade the membership of the Liberal

:22:31. > :22:34.Democrats that a coalition was a good idea from our point of view. A

:22:35. > :22:38.progressive alliance would be rather something different. Progressive

:22:39. > :22:43.alliance implies, though, a commitment to support the Government

:22:44. > :22:47.which happens to be in power. The notion of a progressive alliance is

:22:48. > :22:50.that it would supplant the Conservatives. On the issue of

:22:51. > :22:55.Brexit, the Liberal Democrat position is very clear, as compared

:22:56. > :23:00.to Jeremy Corbyn's position, which frankly, almost defies definition. I

:23:01. > :23:06.can't possibly see an arrangement of the kind between Labour and the

:23:07. > :23:09.Liberal Democrats which would in any way overcome that quite significant

:23:10. > :23:13.difference of opinion. As far as Tim Farron is concerned, however

:23:14. > :23:21.difficult it might be to put to the mebds and with the -- members and

:23:22. > :23:24.with the memories of the to 10-2015 -- 2010-2015 experience,

:23:25. > :23:27.nevertheless, it campaign was about wanting to fight a hard Brexit.

:23:28. > :23:33.Should Tim Farron consider some kind of arrangement with the

:23:34. > :23:37.Conservatives? Well, that's equally impossible. Mrs May made it clear

:23:38. > :23:41.before and after calling the election, she said no deal is better

:23:42. > :23:47.than a poor deal. She's willing to accept the hardest possible Brexit.

:23:48. > :23:52.How could Tim Farron possibly alie himself with that nor could he take

:23:53. > :24:01.the party with him, nor the over 100,000 people - doubled our

:24:02. > :24:06.membership since 2010 - Even having involvement in the negotiations? We

:24:07. > :24:10.know about coalitions. We know about the extent that it's very difficult

:24:11. > :24:13.indeed. After the last coalition, the major party gets the credit for

:24:14. > :24:17.everything done and the junior party takes the blame for the things that

:24:18. > :24:22.people don't like. Therefore, I've - it will be down to him. He'll have

:24:23. > :24:25.to make his own decision. I should be astonished if he would

:24:26. > :24:29.countenance any kind of coalition either with Labour or the

:24:30. > :24:34.Conservatives. What he can say is we will deal with these, everybody

:24:35. > :24:37.issue on a vote by vote basis. We will not have, if you like,

:24:38. > :24:42.opposition for opposition's take. But we will consider everything on

:24:43. > :24:46.its merits. That is something he can sell to his own party. It's

:24:47. > :24:51.something which will preserve his and indeed the party's integrity.

:24:52. > :24:56.Lord Campbell, thank you. There are fascinating scenes up in

:24:57. > :24:59.Sunderland, further north than London, there's still a bit of

:25:00. > :25:06.daylight, as the students, look at them with these boxes, bringing the

:25:07. > :25:10.ballot boxes to the central count and white gloved, handing them

:25:11. > :25:14.carefully. All trained to do this, both Sunderland and Newcastle have

:25:15. > :25:19.been competing and indeed the man who organised Sunderland last time

:25:20. > :25:22.round has been giving advice to Slough as well in Buckinghamshire.

:25:23. > :25:25.They wanted to get their result in as fast as possible. The boxes have

:25:26. > :25:29.to be opened. There is a slight problem here, this time round, which

:25:30. > :25:34.is that if people go who have postal ballots and put them in these boxes,

:25:35. > :25:39.they then have to be individually verified. That takes a bit of time.

:25:40. > :25:45.But they're saying now, I think Newcastle says they'll have theirs

:25:46. > :25:52.by 11pm. Sunderland, I hope, a bit before. Let's speak to our reporter

:25:53. > :25:59.down there. Hello, can you hear us in Newcastle?

:26:00. > :26:05.David, hello, yes. It's looking a great race this. Everyone was

:26:06. > :26:08.gasping when you think Sunderland might be a few minutes before

:26:09. > :26:13.Newcastle. That's definitely not what they want to hear here tonight.

:26:14. > :26:17.They are clock watching here. Frantic activity behind me. The

:26:18. > :26:21.first ballot box came in about 10. 07. 128 in total are going to be

:26:22. > :26:25.making their way through to the arena. We think we've got 50 of

:26:26. > :26:31.those boxes in so far. What Newcastle are hoping to do is get a

:26:32. > :26:37.declaration result announced here by as early as roughly, maybe, 10.

:26:38. > :26:41.45pm. If they do that, they will become the first to declare a result

:26:42. > :26:44.on general election night and crucially, they want to beat

:26:45. > :26:48.Sunderland. They have a very healthy rivalry that's been going on for

:26:49. > :26:52.many elections in the past. They keep reminding us here tonight that

:26:53. > :26:55.they beat Sunderland last year in the EU referendum result. I was here

:26:56. > :27:00.that night. Tonight is no exception when it comes down to the precise

:27:01. > :27:04.process of the boxes coming in to the hall here and the counting

:27:05. > :27:08.getting under way. If they are on track, and they're looking pretty

:27:09. > :27:12.optimistic, maybe before 11pm and before Sunderland.

:27:13. > :27:16.Thank you very much. Of course, this is, I mean it's great to have the

:27:17. > :27:23.race. But it's important too, because those first results will

:27:24. > :27:26.give us a clue through our psephologist really, a clue whether

:27:27. > :27:32.the exit poll is accurate or not. We'll be hearing from them. I'm

:27:33. > :27:35.joined by Stuart Hosie, the former MP for Dundee east, is standing for

:27:36. > :27:40.Dundee east. Thank you for joining us. What do you make of this exit

:27:41. > :27:47.poll, which looks, if it's right, rather damaging for the SNP, down 22

:27:48. > :27:51.is what the exit poll is saying. Well, first of all, it is only an

:27:52. > :27:56.exit poll. So all of the usual caveats and pinches of salt should

:27:57. > :28:01.apply. The main story from it, if it's accurate is that Theresa May

:28:02. > :28:09.has given up a majority and we now have again, if the numbers are

:28:10. > :28:13.correct, 314 Tories, versus 314 others and 22 from the Northern

:28:14. > :28:17.Irish parties. That's an extraordinary thing. For Theresa May

:28:18. > :28:21.to call this election, for narrow party advantage, and then if these

:28:22. > :28:26.numbers are correct, to blow it incredibly. If she has blown it, in

:28:27. > :28:30.the sense that she doesn't have an overall majority, would you allow

:28:31. > :28:34.her to go through with the Queen's speech in the House of Commons, is

:28:35. > :28:41.the SNP, assuming you have at least a substantial wedge in the new

:28:42. > :28:44.House? Well, again, if this poll is correct, it would still point to the

:28:45. > :28:50.SNP winning the election in Scotland, which is what we set out

:28:51. > :28:54.to achieve. I don't recall us ever voting for significant Tory policy

:28:55. > :28:58.in the past. It would be hard to see in the current climate with an

:28:59. > :29:04.austerity cuts, hard Brexit party that we'd want to support them in

:29:05. > :29:08.any way in this future Parliament. We've heard well, let me put it like

:29:09. > :29:13.this, the reason that we were, I said at the beginning, we were

:29:14. > :29:18.cautious about SNP on 34, down 22, is we're told that a lot of these

:29:19. > :29:22.are very tight, the polling is suggesting 50/50 so you don't quite

:29:23. > :29:25.know which way to call them. Two people in particular, Angus

:29:26. > :29:28.Robertson, your leader in Westminster, and Alex Salmond, the

:29:29. > :29:32.former leader of the SNP are both said to be under threat if this exit

:29:33. > :29:39.poll is correct. Have you got any information from them about how they

:29:40. > :29:45.think they've done? No, I don't have any specific information from those

:29:46. > :29:50.seats at all. But common sense would tell us that Alex Salmond, a

:29:51. > :29:54.fantastic Parliamentary former like Angus Robertson with their track

:29:55. > :29:58.records in the constituencies would have an edge over any insurgent Tory

:29:59. > :30:02.campaign. As I say, it will take some hours before this all comes out

:30:03. > :30:06.in the wash. Thank you very much. When it comes out in the wash,

:30:07. > :30:09.perhaps you'll be very kind and come back in the light of reality rather

:30:10. > :30:16.than speculation tell us what your position is. Indeed, I'll be

:30:17. > :30:20.delighted to, as long as it's stopped raining by then.

:30:21. > :30:25.A last word from you two about this then. You heard Ming Campbell

:30:26. > :30:28.talking about what would happen and everybody's dumping on the Tories at

:30:29. > :30:32.the moment for having called this election in the first place. I mean

:30:33. > :30:36.dumping on you, saying it was a misjudgment. I think this was the

:30:37. > :30:39.right thing to do to have a clear and strong mandate as we go into the

:30:40. > :30:42.Brexit negotiations. Theresa May didn't have that mandate last year,

:30:43. > :30:48.when she took over from David Cameron. It was clear that other

:30:49. > :30:51.opposition parties were in the business of frustrating a successful

:30:52. > :30:55.Brexit. It was the right thing to do to ask the British people for a

:30:56. > :30:58.mandate. We don't know yet know, with not a single result in, we

:30:59. > :31:03.don't yet know what the result is. It was the right thing to, do but if

:31:04. > :31:07.it goes wrong, you will say it was the wrong thing to do. We haven't

:31:08. > :31:11.got a result yet. You can't say it was the right thing to do, if it

:31:12. > :31:15.turns out wrong. You'll be blaming Theresa May for having called. It I

:31:16. > :31:19.think it was right to ask the British people for their support for

:31:20. > :31:25.a strong mandate to negotiate this very complex Brexit. That was the

:31:26. > :31:29.right thing to do. Because she inherited from David Cameron a

:31:30. > :31:30.previous manifesto which was designed before the Brexit

:31:31. > :31:47.referendum. Your defence Shadow Foreign

:31:48. > :31:50.Secretary, Emily Thornberry, she's just said she thinks that Theresa

:31:51. > :31:55.May on the basis of this exit poll should resign. Would that be a

:31:56. > :32:00.call... Look, it's an... Don't say again we don't know the exit poll

:32:01. > :32:05.result. I'm so cautious on these occasions. Assume it's right? If it

:32:06. > :32:08.is right, I think her position is becoming increasingly untenable and

:32:09. > :32:13.I'll tell you why and, Michael, you need to listen to what the people

:32:14. > :32:16.were saying - if Theresa May promises on seven different

:32:17. > :32:19.occasions she wouldn't go for a snap general election and she went for it

:32:20. > :32:23.on the basis that she wanted to secure a mandate she already had,

:32:24. > :32:26.people saw through that. They saw this as an election which was for

:32:27. > :32:31.party advantage rather than the interests of the country. It looks

:32:32. > :32:37.as though they have rejected her as a result of that. Well, she didn't

:32:38. > :32:43.have a mandate. Oh, please, we voted for Article 50. We just voted for

:32:44. > :32:47.it. She did not have a mandate. People argue she should have called

:32:48. > :32:51.a general election earlier. People have rejected this, they thought

:32:52. > :32:56.she's putting party advantage above that of the country when what we

:32:57. > :33:02.need to do is address the real issue about the economy, Public Services

:33:03. > :33:09.and... You have said that over the last six or seven weeks. Laura, what

:33:10. > :33:14.is your thought on this? Scepticism from both parties. One senior Labour

:33:15. > :33:17.figure said to me in text, this doesn't seem believable from where

:33:18. > :33:23.they sit, a Conservative said it feels wrong. This is an extremely

:33:24. > :33:26.extensive exit poll and Theresa May, having looked unassailable at the

:33:27. > :33:32.start of this campaign, had a very bumpy time. Whether that was over a

:33:33. > :33:36.social care issue, the manifesto promise she was forced to tweak and

:33:37. > :33:40.change or over the issue of police cuts that became a huge pressure for

:33:41. > :33:45.her in the closing weeks of the campaign. We heard from voters on

:33:46. > :33:49.the doorstep around the UK, some people were perhaps, not resentful,

:33:50. > :33:52.but a bit peeved about having another election. Until April 18th

:33:53. > :33:55.you were also sitting there saying it was not the right thing to have

:33:56. > :33:58.an election, you were saying it would be the wrong thing and people

:33:59. > :34:02.around the country saw that. They were sceptical about Theresa May

:34:03. > :34:06.going to the country. I think they understood the central argument that

:34:07. > :34:09.there were other parties determined to frustrate the Brexit process to

:34:10. > :34:13.vote against it. We heard the Liberal Democrats were going to have

:34:14. > :34:18.a campaign for a second referendum using their peers from the House of

:34:19. > :34:22.Lords. But surely it will end up being seen to be a huge political

:34:23. > :34:27.mistake, to have called an election that she didn't need to do. Even if

:34:28. > :34:30.the result is anywhere near this, it's a catastrophic error and people

:34:31. > :34:36.have seen through it. We haven't had a result yet. Exactly. Let us wait

:34:37. > :34:41.until we have had a result. The exit poll... If even if it's near this.

:34:42. > :34:47.You are getting carried away now. Not at all, I'm very sceptical. The

:34:48. > :34:51.exit poll may have egg on its face, in which case the BBC, ITV and Sky

:34:52. > :34:56.will have egg on its face, I'm glad to say we are not out here on our

:34:57. > :35:02.own, for once. Getting your excuses in early! You were getting yours in

:35:03. > :35:05.early. Let us look at the battleground then, assuming this -

:35:06. > :35:08.well I'll assume nothing - Jeremy Vine.

:35:09. > :35:12.Listening to your conversation, we shouldn't assume very much at all.

:35:13. > :35:16.We had the exit poll. Here is what I am going to show you. Conservative

:35:17. > :35:20.seats, the most marginal and vulnerable because they were so

:35:21. > :35:26.tight last time. Gower won by only 27 votes in 2015 by the

:35:27. > :35:33.Conservatives, Derby North, Croydon Central and so on. Down we go, down

:35:34. > :35:36.this first page of 32 seats, the Conservatives' most vulnerable

:35:37. > :35:41.seats. We fit the exit poll into this and let us see what we think

:35:42. > :35:45.has happened. Labour have made a land grab here. Ghouler staying

:35:46. > :35:54.Conservative under the poll, Derby North and Croydon central going to

:35:55. > :35:59.Labour. A lot of damage, Morley and Outwood there. A lot of damage in

:36:00. > :36:04.the first two columns. As the board goes on, the Conservatives start to

:36:05. > :36:08.defend themselves better. Look at that. It looks as though that is the

:36:09. > :36:16.extent of the Labour advance but it's a very patchy prediction this,

:36:17. > :36:21.because here is the second board. 32 more seats, bigger majorities,

:36:22. > :36:25.Torbay for example, a 3,000 majority and they go up as we go down the

:36:26. > :36:29.board. What do we think has happened here? Let us take a look. You can

:36:30. > :36:36.see some of the Labour gains not in places you might expect. Calder

:36:37. > :36:42.Valley, Pudsey, Labour gains. Exit poll I stress. Labour gaining here.

:36:43. > :36:47.Enfield Southgate, you member the Michael Portillo moment in 1997 we

:36:48. > :36:49.have going back to Labour. On that board, Labour have done some more

:36:50. > :36:54.damage to the Conservatives and it doesn't stop there. We go to even

:36:55. > :37:00.better defended Conservatives seats there. These are ones that you

:37:01. > :37:04.wouldn't have thought have gone to any other party when Theresa May

:37:05. > :37:12.started the election campaign. Here Labour are reaching into seats where

:37:13. > :37:16.there may be a 5-6,000 majority. Under the exit poll, we have going

:37:17. > :37:19.Labour, we'll see what happens when we come to the actual results which

:37:20. > :37:25.surely won't be too long. Let me change the board, turn it around and

:37:26. > :37:29.look at targets. So when Mrs May called the election, she's thinking,

:37:30. > :37:32.we are going to gain some Conservative seats. Have they

:37:33. > :37:40.managed to make any gains in this extraordinary result where they seem

:37:41. > :37:49.to have reversed? The most vulnerable seat is Chester, Labour

:37:50. > :37:53.won with only a 93-point margin. Berwickshire and Roxburgh, very

:37:54. > :37:58.tight. These are the seats the Conservatives you would think go

:37:59. > :38:03.into first. Here you can see it's very poor performances, very little

:38:04. > :38:07.going on. They have taken, according to the exit poll, Berwickshire and

:38:08. > :38:12.Roxburgh, a marginal Scottish seat and we think Wrexham as well there,

:38:13. > :38:15.Ian Lucas was the MP there, that's gone Conservative. Better story in

:38:16. > :38:18.Wales and Scotland for the Conservatives than in England. Let

:38:19. > :38:22.us go to the second board and keep doing these targets. These are safer

:38:23. > :38:25.seats but still maybe the Conservatives would have had their

:38:26. > :38:28.eyes on them at the start of the election campaign before things

:38:29. > :38:32.started to go wrong. Let us see if they won any seats. The

:38:33. > :38:38.Conservatives have won seats, but who have they got in common? Wales.

:38:39. > :38:43.Clacton special case because it was Ukip obviously. Dumfries and

:38:44. > :38:46.Galloway, a Scottish seat, Aberdeenshire West Scotland and

:38:47. > :38:50.Newport east, that was Labour, that was Wales. So in England, the gains

:38:51. > :38:54.for the Conservatives seem to be few and far between. One more board for

:38:55. > :38:57.you. Here we go. These are seats which would have been hard for the

:38:58. > :39:09.Conservatives to gain. Anything happening here? Let us see. Very

:39:10. > :39:13.little. Perth and Perthshire. Nothing in gland. Labour have done

:39:14. > :39:19.some serious damage to Conservative seats in England and may have offset

:39:20. > :39:24.it with gains in Wales and Scotland. All from the exit poll. We'll have

:39:25. > :39:28.to see. Boy oh boy are we going to be hung, drawn and quartered if this

:39:29. > :39:32.is all wrong which it still might well be. We have to go on with what

:39:33. > :39:36.we have got from the exit poll and there's reaction already to the exit

:39:37. > :39:46.poll. I'm joined by two people who'll be sitting here during the

:39:47. > :39:51.evening. The BBC media editor and our Business Editor. Has there been

:39:52. > :39:55.reaction? This is a massive shock, obviously huge caveats, lots of

:39:56. > :40:03.people saying that there are lots of close seats so it's too early to

:40:04. > :40:04.say, but astonishment across the Twittersphere. Caroline Lucas

:40:05. > :40:16.saying: Jason Groves, the Political Editor

:40:17. > :40:28.of the Daily Mail, very supportive of Theresa May recently. It says:

:40:29. > :40:33.Although it's early, there are some big themes emerging on social media.

:40:34. > :40:36.One is that this is a disaster for Theresa May. Another is there may

:40:37. > :40:41.well be another election and a third one that people like Lord Ashcroft

:40:42. > :40:48.are yew none mauls on is that it's going to be a very long night!

:40:49. > :40:55.Brenda from Bristol said, "not another bloody election". Yes, in a

:40:56. > :40:59.Bristolian accent which I'll never get close to emulating. We were here

:41:00. > :41:04.together on referendum night, so there is a similar feel, of course,

:41:05. > :41:07.as Amol says, you have to be careful, this is a poll and we

:41:08. > :41:11.haven't actually seen any real results, but the pound is down about

:41:12. > :41:17.2% already against the dollar, it's also down against the euro. I think

:41:18. > :41:21.that's not as much about Jeremy Corbyn could be the Prime Minister,

:41:22. > :41:28.depending on how things may turn out if this exit poll is correct, but it

:41:29. > :41:32.is about uncertainty. That word we always use when the markets are

:41:33. > :41:36.looking at a situation, because the markets, the big challenge for the

:41:37. > :41:40.UK was Brexit. If we are in a position where neither of the

:41:41. > :41:44.parties have a solid majority and have to go through tough

:41:45. > :41:50.negotiations, are in weak positions, there could be another election,

:41:51. > :41:54.this could have a situation where the Scottish referendum could come

:41:55. > :41:58.back into play, depending on the negotiations. The markets look at

:41:59. > :42:02.that and would much prefer a 70 majority for Theresa May or a 70

:42:03. > :42:09.majority for Jeremy Corbyn, whatever their policies may be, because at

:42:10. > :42:13.least then they could make a judgment on if trajectory. So you

:42:14. > :42:16.are saying it's uncertainty not thinking there is going to be

:42:17. > :42:19.possibly a softer Brexit if Theresa May doesn't have the majority? There

:42:20. > :42:23.is some argument which I don't have a huge amount of sympathy for, which

:42:24. > :42:28.is the notion that there could be a softer Brexit if there is either a

:42:29. > :42:30.Jeremy Corbyn-led Government or a hung Parliament and Theresa May

:42:31. > :42:35.having to put together a coalition. The reason I say that is because on

:42:36. > :42:38.the uncertainty of would this Government last for five years or

:42:39. > :42:43.four years, would it last the whole of the Brexit process, would the

:42:44. > :42:48.Brexit process be put back to Parliament in any substantive way, I

:42:49. > :42:51.think those concerns would outweigh any notion that there could be a

:42:52. > :42:57.slightly better deal with Europe. Yes. Because I think those things

:42:58. > :43:01.are the uncertainties that will loom much larger. That is the reaction

:43:02. > :43:05.you are getting with the currencies. We have been here before with

:43:06. > :43:09.Brexit. The currency plunged to 120, we are well above that. It has

:43:10. > :43:12.already on that 2% just slightly - we have to wait for the first

:43:13. > :43:16.marginals to really see. The currency traders are making a

:43:17. > :43:20.fortune? Some will be on the right side of this bet and some will be on

:43:21. > :43:24.the wrong side. Making a million here, a million there and a billion

:43:25. > :43:28.here and a billion there. They are all gamblers. It's more than that,

:43:29. > :43:32.they are making a judgment on the possible strength of the UK economy

:43:33. > :43:37.in the future. OK. Like resources, they may be right or wrong. I call

:43:38. > :43:47.it gambling. Anyway, let's go to Scotland. A reminder of the figures

:43:48. > :43:54.in Scotland. The exit poll gave the SNP down 22. We are going to need a

:43:55. > :43:58.new word for caveat soon. We are talking extreme caveat because the

:43:59. > :44:03.SNP is harder than the other places to read. We know according to the

:44:04. > :44:08.forecast the SNP are on 34 seats, that means they would lose 12 if the

:44:09. > :44:13.poll is on target. These are some of those that we have been hearing. A

:44:14. > :44:18.90% chance of them losing. Let me go into the first one. It comes out on

:44:19. > :44:24.our forecast as a gain for the Conservatives. Aberdeenshire West,

:44:25. > :44:29.they call this Aberdeenshire West-life because all the candidates

:44:30. > :44:36.are under 30, Stuart Donaldson, the current MP here, but the forecasts

:44:37. > :44:39.are suggesting that, even with that massive majority and the

:44:40. > :44:43.Conservatives needing a swing, on the forecast they would take it. OK,

:44:44. > :44:49.that is the first possible gain for the Conservatives, looking quite

:44:50. > :44:53.likely according to the poll. Perth and North Perthshire, this was the

:44:54. > :44:56.Conservative target, 88, if you can get your head around that. It would

:44:57. > :45:00.seem as if the Conservative chances in Scotland may be much better than

:45:01. > :45:03.in England but of course we haven't had a result in yet. This is what

:45:04. > :45:08.the forecast here is showing. It's what we call a Tory long shot,

:45:09. > :45:11.they'd need a 9% swing here. That would put the Conservatives on 50%

:45:12. > :45:16.share of the vote if the poll is accurate. A couple of others the SNP

:45:17. > :45:23.would lose, this time not to the Conservatives but the Lib Dems. This

:45:24. > :45:28.one much more tightly fought, JohnNicolson, a former TV presenter,

:45:29. > :45:32.under the forecast, he goes out and in comes Jo Swinson, last time she

:45:33. > :45:37.lost her seat the Lib Dem Business Minister in 2015 and she would take

:45:38. > :45:41.it back on a pretty decent share of the vote, 43%, a big gap there, much

:45:42. > :45:46.bigger than swing she would need if we are on track. One more, Edinburgh

:45:47. > :45:51.West number nine on the Lib Dem targets. You can see how the 2015

:45:52. > :45:56.share has those two top parties, SNP in first place and Lib Dems in

:45:57. > :46:00.second. On the forecast, this is often a four-way contest, you could

:46:01. > :46:05.see the Lib Dems taking 40% share of the vote. Now these are all

:46:06. > :46:09.tentative. But why I'm showing you is, they are the most likely ones to

:46:10. > :46:13.change colour tonight. There are a lot more in Scotland that we would

:46:14. > :46:17.call 50-50. They're on the cusp. We wouldn't go further than that at

:46:18. > :46:19.this stage but that is why the exit poll is in such a caveated mode at

:46:20. > :46:30.present. These parties are all pro the union,

:46:31. > :46:33.don't want another referendum on the union. There you go, that might have

:46:34. > :46:36.something to do with, it certainly if we're seeing that step backwards

:46:37. > :46:39.from the SNP. What's interesting, for example, in Aberdeenshire west,

:46:40. > :46:45.I was looking at the Leave vote as well. Aberdeenshire West, 39%, which

:46:46. > :46:49.looks like quite a low Leave vote, though to put it in context, it's

:46:50. > :46:53.quite a high Leave vote for Scotland. Maybe that has given the

:46:54. > :46:58.Conservatives a bit of a chance here. Some of them in Scotland are

:46:59. > :47:04.in the 70 to 30 model. Thanks very much Emily. Let's go up to Scotland.

:47:05. > :47:08.To Edinburgh and join Sarah Smith, our Scotland editor. What do you

:47:09. > :47:14.make of this poll and you'll be entering the same caveats everybody

:47:15. > :47:19.else has, but if it's true. Absolutely and the SNP themselves

:47:20. > :47:22.look a little anxious about this. I wouldn't say they think they're on

:47:23. > :47:25.target to lose that many seats. They were braced for some losses.

:47:26. > :47:30.Remember, they had such an amazing result two years ago, where they won

:47:31. > :47:35.56 out of the 59 seats that are in the Scotland. It seemed inevitable

:47:36. > :47:38.that they were going to lose some of them. This would be remarkable if

:47:39. > :47:44.the exit poll is any way correct about that. As you were alouding to

:47:45. > :47:49.with -- alluding to with Emily, the dynamic in Scotland has been

:47:50. > :47:53.completely different. The SNP are the incumbents and the Tories as the

:47:54. > :47:56.insurgents, the ones who thought they could take a few seats off the

:47:57. > :48:00.SNP. They were optimistic about something between six and ten, maybe

:48:01. > :48:05.even a dozen seats, they would be very happy with that in Scotland.

:48:06. > :48:07.The campaign narrative here has been different because it's been all

:48:08. > :48:11.about independence. Because it was just three months ago that Nicola

:48:12. > :48:14.Sturgeon said she wanted another referendum on Scottish independence

:48:15. > :48:18.and the Tories have cast themselves as the one party who say they can

:48:19. > :48:20.stop another independence referendum, the most staunch

:48:21. > :48:23.defenders of the United Kingdom, though of course, Labour and the Lib

:48:24. > :48:26.Dems also say they don't want another Scottish referendum. The

:48:27. > :48:30.Tories have really taken on that mantle of the union and that's what

:48:31. > :48:32.they hope could propel them to take a good few seats off the SNP

:48:33. > :48:38.tonight. Thank you very much indeed. Let's go

:48:39. > :48:44.to Cardiff and join Sian Lloyd. The Plaid Cymru figure was that it

:48:45. > :48:50.remains at three. What other things have been going on in Wales, do we

:48:51. > :48:54.expect any other changes? Well, I'm in Cardiff where three of the four

:48:55. > :49:00.Cardiff constituencies are counting and not expecting any results from

:49:01. > :49:04.here for quite some time. Carwyn Jones, the First Minister of Wales,

:49:05. > :49:09.has just been alongside me here. He's just arrived. He's trying to

:49:10. > :49:14.get a sense of his reaction to this exit poll. Earlier polls were saying

:49:15. > :49:17.that perhaps the Conservatives could gain nine seats in Wales. Wales has

:49:18. > :49:25.traditionally been a Labour strong hold. For the past 100 years. It was

:49:26. > :49:29.only in 1983 the Conservatives had their high water mark here when they

:49:30. > :49:33.gained 14 seats at the height of Margaret Thatcher's popularity. But

:49:34. > :49:40.Theresa May was hoping to make inroads here. She came to Wales

:49:41. > :49:45.three times during this campaign, four different constituencies. She

:49:46. > :49:50.went to Wrexham, Clwyd south. She was hoping Wales had voted to Leave

:49:51. > :49:52.that in some of the marginal constituencies that had voted to

:49:53. > :49:55.leave she would gain support here. She was really targeting them. Of

:49:56. > :50:00.course, we've got to see what the results are now. Carwyn Jones, the

:50:01. > :50:03.First Minister of Wales, really led Labour's campaign here in Wales.

:50:04. > :50:07.Jeremy Corbyn did visit, but he wasn't particularly visible here.

:50:08. > :50:11.Labour were campaigning under the brand of Welsh Labour, which they

:50:12. > :50:16.say has been successful for them in the past. What he's just been saying

:50:17. > :50:20.now is that he doesn't want to comment on it too much, on this exit

:50:21. > :50:25.poll, of course, it's very early days. But he did make the point that

:50:26. > :50:29.he didn't feel that Theresa May had engaged with people when she had

:50:30. > :50:35.come on these visits and he made the point that she hadn't entered into

:50:36. > :50:41.the debates. Plaid Cymru expected to remain on three. They have been

:50:42. > :50:47.working very hard on a target seat for them. Their former leader coming

:50:48. > :50:52.out of retirement to stand as an MP there. They're going to be looking

:50:53. > :51:03.very closely at that. Also, the rounda, where they've been working

:51:04. > :51:12.very hard and Leanne chose to launch the Plaid Cymru manifesto. Clive

:51:13. > :51:21.Myrie is in south London, Tooting, covering Battersea and Putney as

:51:22. > :51:26.well. We're keeping an eye, obviously on our first result from

:51:27. > :51:37.Sunderland or wherever. Over to you. Yes, could be very interesting here

:51:38. > :51:40.in the Wandsworth area. Three constituencies Putney, Justine

:51:41. > :51:42.Greening, big figure in the party, pretty unassailable it seems

:51:43. > :51:46.according to the polls. A 10,000 majority. Highly likely to retain

:51:47. > :51:49.that seat for the Conservatives. It's the Tooting and Battersea seats

:51:50. > :51:55.that could be very interesting indeed. Tooting, Sadiq Khan's old

:51:56. > :52:00.seat, now the Mayor of London. In the by-election, once he stood down

:52:01. > :52:06.in 2016, it was held by the Labour Party. But the majority was just

:52:07. > :52:09.over 6,000. The Conservatives have coveted Tooting for the last two

:52:10. > :52:14.election cycles at least. They've poured money in here. They've poured

:52:15. > :52:17.campaigners in here. They really felt, certainly up until the last

:52:18. > :52:21.four or five days of the campaign, that they were making inroads. I've

:52:22. > :52:23.talked to some of the Labour activists here. They're pretty

:52:24. > :52:28.confident that they will hang on to Tooting. They've been putting out

:52:29. > :52:32.mail shots to all their activists in the area to come to Tooting, to

:52:33. > :52:37.campaign and their feeling is that they've done pretty well on the

:52:38. > :52:42.doorstep. The final seat here Battersea, held by the Conservatives

:52:43. > :52:47.a majority of 8,000, but that tonight is being described as on a

:52:48. > :52:50.knife edge. If the overall exit poll that you've been talking about

:52:51. > :52:56.throughout the evening is anything to go by, it could well be that the

:52:57. > :53:01.Labour Party have taken that seat. Very interesting times here at the

:53:02. > :53:05.Wandsworth count. We're waiting for Sunderland south. Before we get it,

:53:06. > :53:08.there they are counting. Emily, tell us what we should look out for in

:53:09. > :53:12.terms of verifying the exit poll, if you can do that? This is the first

:53:13. > :53:18.real test of the exit poll and whether it's on target. This is the

:53:19. > :53:23.2015 share of the vote. It's solid Labour. We don't expect that to

:53:24. > :53:27.change. Labour then on 55% of the vote at the moment, Ukip in second

:53:28. > :53:33.place and the Conservatives in third place. If our forecast is on track.

:53:34. > :53:37.Then Labour's share of the vote goes up to 68%. Keep that figure in your

:53:38. > :53:42.mind. When the real result comes in, if it's on or around there, we know

:53:43. > :53:46.that the exit poll is correct in this seat in this part of the world

:53:47. > :53:51.at least. This is what our forecast is suggesting: There could be a big

:53:52. > :53:56.drop for Ukip there, down 15%. Some gains even for the Conservatives

:53:57. > :54:00.here and large gains of 13% for Labour. So those are the sorts of

:54:01. > :54:05.figures that we'll be putting side by side the exit poll to see if it

:54:06. > :54:10.all makes sense. John Curtis was our man in charge of the exit poll, done

:54:11. > :54:13.by these three broadcasting companies. What would you like to

:54:14. > :54:19.say about it, are you surprised by it? I think we should always start

:54:20. > :54:23.with exit polls by suggesting what we can rule out. It seems to me

:54:24. > :54:27.unless the exit poll is correcty wrong, that the Prime Minister has

:54:28. > :54:31.failed to achieve her principal objective, which was that she was

:54:32. > :54:35.going to achieve a land slide, a very big majority for her party, in

:54:36. > :54:39.the next House of Commons and there by providing her with rather more

:54:40. > :54:42.wriggle room over Brexit. The second thing that we can probably rule out

:54:43. > :54:48.is that the Labour Party is going to end up with more seats than the

:54:49. > :54:52.Conservatives. We are probably talking about Theresa May or

:54:53. > :54:56.somebody from the Conservative Party heading next administration. Those

:54:57. > :55:00.are two things we can rule out. There after, whilst our exit poll at

:55:01. > :55:04.the moment is saying that its central forecast is 314 Conservative

:55:05. > :55:09.seats, which is short of an overall majority, I will remind you that two

:55:10. > :55:12.years ago, we said it would be 316 Conservative seats and it ended up

:55:13. > :55:17.being 331. We certainly, certainly cannot rule out the possibility that

:55:18. > :55:20.the Conservatives will still have an overall majority, but maybe one that

:55:21. > :55:24.isn't much bigger than the one they had before the election was called.

:55:25. > :55:27.Thanks very much. Reminder of how it would look in the House of Commons,

:55:28. > :55:34.Jeremy, are you ready? Yeah. Good. Let's see. OK. Let's take a look at

:55:35. > :55:39.the House of Commons. We have a device here which we're looking at,

:55:40. > :55:42.our coalition builder. When the election campaign began, we thought

:55:43. > :55:48.this is not going to be how it ends up. We are looking now at who and

:55:49. > :55:51.how you put together the 326 MPs you need for an overall majority in the

:55:52. > :55:56.House of Commons. So, what we have here are the numbers. We have the

:55:57. > :55:59.Conservatives 314, Labour 266, from the exit poll. We keep having to

:56:00. > :56:03.say, without having a result yet. What we're going to do is pull them

:56:04. > :56:10.out one at a time. Let's bring the Conservatives first. 314. As you see

:56:11. > :56:14.here, we have the 326 line just here. Can they find some alliances

:56:15. > :56:19.that will give them a majority in the House of Commons to maybe not a

:56:20. > :56:23.coalition, maybe just a working arrangement, something to get the

:56:24. > :56:27.Queen's speech through. 314 for the Conservatives, if that is the

:56:28. > :56:30.result, leaves them as they were in 2010, looking for friends. In 2010

:56:31. > :56:34.they went for the Liberal Democrats. This time that won't work. The Lib

:56:35. > :56:40.Dems seem to have been bunt by that. They aren't playing ball. We shall

:56:41. > :56:44.put in, shall we, let's put in the Democratic Unionist Party in

:56:45. > :56:49.Northern Ireland. They have been happy to work with the Conservatives

:56:50. > :56:53.in the past. The trouble here is they need 326, under the exit poll,

:56:54. > :56:59.they're so far short of that, that they can only make 322 with the DUP.

:57:00. > :57:02.Then you're left, there's no Ukip MP under the exit poll to bring in.

:57:03. > :57:11.You're left with a situation where they've fallen short. For the

:57:12. > :57:15.Conservatives, this is very awkward. Worth saying again, that the exit

:57:16. > :57:19.poll wouldn't need to be, it's gone on the other side. There we are,

:57:20. > :57:21.they've put all the parties into the other side of the House of Commons,

:57:22. > :57:25.worth saying that the exit poll could be only slightly wrong and it

:57:26. > :57:28.could change those figures drastically, so the Conservatives

:57:29. > :57:31.don't need many alliances to get their 326 in the House of Commons.

:57:32. > :57:35.Shall we just try this quickly with Labour. What can the numbers do for

:57:36. > :57:38.Labour? It's tricky because the Lib Dems have said similar things about

:57:39. > :57:44.Labour that they've said about the Conservatives. So let's just try

:57:45. > :57:48.this, so we can visualise. 266 Labour seats. Maybe there's

:57:49. > :57:52.something, some way of getting the SNP to work with Labour, maybe the

:57:53. > :57:58.two of them could agree, vote by vote, bill by bill, to agrow a

:57:59. > :58:06.Queen's Speech maybe. It's Labour and the SNP. That makes 300. They're

:58:07. > :58:10.still a way short. I won't put in - well, let's put in the Lib Dems just

:58:11. > :58:16.for the sake of it. Even then nowhere near 326. You put in Plaid

:58:17. > :58:20.Cymru probably, the SDLP in Northern Ireland. The one Green MP, it's all

:58:21. > :58:23.very theoretical because we're dealing with numbers we haven't had

:58:24. > :58:28.confirmed at all. It's no easier for Labour to put a team together to get

:58:29. > :58:31.to 326 under these numbers. This exit poll is so extraordinary

:58:32. > :58:36.because it leaves all the parties a bit stuck. It really does leave the

:58:37. > :58:43.Conservatives in difficulty getting to 326. Let's look at one of the

:58:44. > :58:47.building blocks of that Jeremy. Geoffrey Donaldson of the DUP in

:58:48. > :58:51.Northern Ireland, last time round, you had eight MPs. If that happened

:58:52. > :58:55.again, what's your view of what you'd do and what do you make of

:58:56. > :59:02.this election that was called to give the Prime Minister an overall

:59:03. > :59:08.sweeping, grand majority? Well, David, good evening from Northern

:59:09. > :59:12.Ireland. This is perfect territory for the DUP obviously because if the

:59:13. > :59:15.Conservatives are just short of an overall majority, it puts us in a

:59:16. > :59:21.very, very strong negotiating position. Certainly that is one that

:59:22. > :59:24.we will take up with relish. What would your negotiating position be,

:59:25. > :59:31.just for viewers who don't know what it is? Well, I'm not going to spell

:59:32. > :59:35.that out in detail at this stage. Obviously, as in 2015, we had a lot

:59:36. > :59:39.of speculation at the early stages of the evening. The Conservatives in

:59:40. > :59:44.the end managed an overall majority at that stage. So I'm not going to

:59:45. > :59:47.pre-empt the outcome, but what I will say is we will be serious

:59:48. > :59:53.players, if there is a hung Parliament. We will go in and we

:59:54. > :59:56.will talk to whoever it is that looks like the Conservatives will be

:59:57. > :00:00.the largest party. We will talk to them. We have a lot in common. We

:00:01. > :00:05.want to see Brexit work for the United Kingdom and of course for

:00:06. > :00:08.Northern Ireland. We want to see the union strengthened and the

:00:09. > :00:11.Conservatives are committed to that. I think there is a lot of common

:00:12. > :00:14.ground on which we can work. Obviously we will want to get the

:00:15. > :00:19.best deal for Northern Ireland itself. So you're keeping something

:00:20. > :00:24.up your sleeve from our viewers tonight, because we know you were in

:00:25. > :00:28.favour of Brexit and presumably you'll change the analogy, shoulder

:00:29. > :00:32.to the wheel on that. Just give us a clue what else you're thinking of.

:00:33. > :00:37.David, I've been a negotiator in Northern Ireland now for quite a

:00:38. > :00:40.number of years and I know that any serious negotiator doesn't reveal

:00:41. > :00:46.their hand in advance and we're not going to do that. In the past, I can

:00:47. > :00:53.give you some clues, in the past what we have done is operate on a

:00:54. > :00:56.vote by vote basis with the Government and looked at issues as

:00:57. > :01:01.they arose in the House of Commons. Thank you very much. We may be into

:01:02. > :01:05.a different scenario this time. Maybe we can talk again. You had a

:01:06. > :01:08.point? It's worth saying in that previous Parliament, when the Tories

:01:09. > :01:12.have been dealing with a small majority, you know working majority

:01:13. > :01:15.of 17, they've already on some issues been very dependent on the

:01:16. > :01:20.DUP. They are well used to dealing with them behind-the-scenes. I have

:01:21. > :01:24.to say the DUP, who tend to take a stronger line on Brexit than the

:01:25. > :01:26.Tory party, are very used to pressing the levers to get things

:01:27. > :01:31.they want out of the Conservatives. Also worth saying, just to remember,

:01:32. > :01:35.in terms of the number of 326, of course, Sinn Fein MPs don't tend to

:01:36. > :01:38.take their seats, so when we're thinking about, if these numbers are

:01:39. > :01:43.right, the Tories trying to build some kind of deal, maybe with the

:01:44. > :01:48.DUP, the actual number that they're looking at is 323. If it's going to

:01:49. > :01:52.be so finely balanced. They never have taken those seats, have they?

:01:53. > :01:58.No. We think we've got about two minutes. Michelle let's go to you

:01:59. > :02:00.for a moment. We'll keep an eye on Sunderland or Newcastle in case they

:02:01. > :02:04.come through. With me is the chair of Momentum,

:02:05. > :02:09.the organisation that was set up to support the leadership of Jeremy

:02:10. > :02:14.Corbyn. What would a result in line with this exit poll mean for Mr

:02:15. > :02:18.Corbyn personally? It would put him in a clear position of having, you

:02:19. > :02:29.know, fought a very successful campaign. Which has resulted in

:02:30. > :02:35.Theresa May failing to get the overwhelming majority she was

:02:36. > :02:39.seeking. She sought an election that she had, several times, said she

:02:40. > :02:44.wasn't going to call in order to get that overwhelming majority. She's

:02:45. > :02:47.utterly failed. Jamie's fought a fantastic campaign. It looks as if

:02:48. > :02:52.the Conservatives will be the largest party. Knowing Mr Corbyn as

:02:53. > :02:55.you do, will he be trying to have those conversations, difficult as

:02:56. > :02:58.they r, for all the reasons that Jeremy just outlined, with the SNP,

:02:59. > :03:02.with the Liberal Democrats, with others, to try and find a route to

:03:03. > :03:05.Number Ten? I really think it's much too early to start talking about

:03:06. > :03:12.those things. This is just an exit poll. As it was said, very small

:03:13. > :03:15.changes in these results could completely change the arithmetic of

:03:16. > :03:19.that kind of thing, if that's where we are. It's not clear that's where

:03:20. > :03:27.we are. I think that really is premature. Thank you.

:03:28. > :03:35.One of the reasons it is taking a bit longer to account is that the

:03:36. > :03:40.turnout in Sunderland is up by 5%. Still quite a low turnout. The

:03:41. > :03:45.average was in the mid-60s last time around. When we do come to it, we

:03:46. > :03:58.mark the card. Peter Kellner is here. If the exit poll is right, the

:03:59. > :04:02.Labour candidates... Newcastle has won. We will go there. Let's have

:04:03. > :04:11.the Newcastle result. They are the winners. They will have to read it

:04:12. > :04:19.out fast. I'm ready to declare the result of

:04:20. > :04:23.Newcastle upon Tyne. I, Pat Ritchie, returning officer, hereby give

:04:24. > :04:27.notice that the total number of votes for each candidate for

:04:28. > :04:41.Newcastle upon Tyne Central constituency is as follows. Nick

:04:42. > :04:54.Cott, Liberal Democrats, 1812. Steve Kyte, Conservative Party candidate,

:04:55. > :05:11.9134. David Muat, UK Independence Party, Ukip, 1282. Che on war,

:05:12. > :05:22.Labour party, 24000 and 71. Peter John Stuart Thompson, Green Party

:05:23. > :05:31.candidate, 595. Chi Onwurah has been duly elected to serve as member for

:05:32. > :05:36.the said constituency. So here for the first time is the

:05:37. > :05:44.way will boogie showing the results tonight. No surprise that Chi

:05:45. > :05:48.Onwurah has held the seat. A majority of 14,000, up 2200 from

:05:49. > :05:53.last time. The first victory of the night.

:05:54. > :06:01.Dotmacro the terrible murder of Jo Cox just a year ago, and following

:06:02. > :06:05.the atrocious attacks in Manchester and London. It is thanks to our

:06:06. > :06:14.police and our emergency services that the democratic process can come

:06:15. > :06:17.to such a successful conclusion. And I would also like to thank the

:06:18. > :06:26.returning officer and all the staff yeah. It has been an efficient and

:06:27. > :06:30.extremely quick count. And I'm also really glad to see that the National

:06:31. > :06:35.youth Council... So the counters in Sunderland,

:06:36. > :06:41.Newcastle rather, looking very pleased with themselves, having

:06:42. > :06:48.beaten Sunderland to the post. Let's see the share. Labour on 65%, the

:06:49. > :06:55.Conservatives on 25%. The change since last time, Labour up ten and

:06:56. > :07:02.the Conservatives up ten percentage points. Ukip Dan 11. And the swing

:07:03. > :07:05.from Conservative to Labour, 2%. Peter Kellner, in your view that is

:07:06. > :07:12.better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour than the exit poll

:07:13. > :07:19.was suggesting? The projection from the exit poll for this seat was

:07:20. > :07:25.suggesting a split of 74% to 14%, Labour to Conservative. The exit

:07:26. > :07:31.poll was projecting a 7% swing to Labour. We have a 2% swing. This is

:07:32. > :07:34.a safe seat. It is not a battle ground seed. The exit poll will not

:07:35. > :07:39.be so reliable in these kind of seats. Let me ask John Curtice.

:07:40. > :07:44.Peter Kellner says it is not as accurate in this seat. Absolutely

:07:45. > :07:51.right. I can explain why we were forecasting a big swing to Labour

:07:52. > :07:54.this seat. The exit poll found that Labour would do better in the seats

:07:55. > :08:00.it was defending where there was a substantial Remain vote in 2016 as

:08:01. > :08:05.opposed to those places where there was a substantial Leave vote. We

:08:06. > :08:09.don't expect Labour to do as well in Sunderland as they did in Newcastle.

:08:10. > :08:15.We should note the direction of travel. It is a 2% swing to Labour.

:08:16. > :08:20.Yes, it is a safe seat, but it is the first sign of the night that

:08:21. > :08:25.maybe the country is going to drift from the Conservatives to the Labour

:08:26. > :08:35.Party. Drift from Conservatives to Labour? Yes, we have a 2% swing for

:08:36. > :08:42.a Labour in this poll. But not enough for a labour to overtake the

:08:43. > :08:46.Conservatives? No. It is a much more pro-Remain Labour seat than

:08:47. > :08:48.Sunderland. I don't know what has happened to Sunderland. They were

:08:49. > :08:54.beavering away but nothing seems to have happened. One of the things to

:08:55. > :09:01.say, that increase in the turnout in Newcastle is something that it is

:09:02. > :09:05.thought has occurred fairly broadly across the country. Given that one

:09:06. > :09:10.of the question marks about this election was, would people turn out?

:09:11. > :09:14.Would young people in particular turnout? I would guess the Labour

:09:15. > :09:18.Party would regard the evidence that turnout is up as relatively

:09:19. > :09:24.encouraging from their point of view. Do you have any evidence about

:09:25. > :09:27.young people? We don't. What I can tell you is that in general we are

:09:28. > :09:32.finding that in constituencies where there are a large number of

:09:33. > :09:35.graduates, who are disproportionately younger, we

:09:36. > :09:39.expect Labour to do better than in places where there are fewer

:09:40. > :09:43.graduates. Indeed in general. It looks as though from the exit poll

:09:44. > :09:48.that that part of Britain which was predominantly Remain will be

:09:49. > :09:53.relatively good territory for Labour. And the part of Britain that

:09:54. > :09:58.was predominantly Leave will be good for the Conservatives. And therefore

:09:59. > :10:02.this indeed may end up as having been a Brexit election even though

:10:03. > :10:04.Brexit disappeared from the campaign trail.

:10:05. > :10:12.I think we have the Sunderland result. I.e., Irene Lucas, acting

:10:13. > :10:19.returning officer hereby give notice that the total number...

:10:20. > :10:54.INAUDIBLE. I hope you can hear this. Paul Hamill, Conservative Party,

:10:55. > :11:18.12300 and 24. Michael Anthony Joyce, UK Independence Party, 2375. Bridget

:11:19. > :11:30.Phillipson, Labour party, 24,000... INAUDIBLE.

:11:31. > :11:36.Bridget Phillipson has been duly elected. They may be able to count

:11:37. > :11:41.in a hurry but they need to take control of their sound system.

:11:42. > :11:47.Labour won. The Conservatives are up more than Labour in that seat. Ukip

:11:48. > :11:53.went down to 2300 from a thousand last time around. If I heard it

:11:54. > :11:58.right, the Conservatives were up from 7000 to more than 12,000. I

:11:59. > :12:02.think we may have missed the Labour figure. We are trying to find it

:12:03. > :12:06.out. And when we do we will be able to explain what has happened. Again

:12:07. > :12:12.it is another seat where it looks as though... The Conservatives have

:12:13. > :12:17.done substantially better in Newcastle and Sunderland than the

:12:18. > :12:20.projection, Labour has done worse. These constituencies are 20 miles

:12:21. > :12:26.apart. There may be something going on in safe Labour seeds. Or it may

:12:27. > :12:30.be that the exit poll is wrong. We will have to wait a few hours to

:12:31. > :12:36.find out. We have seen a significant fall away

:12:37. > :12:39.in the Ukip vote. The Conservatives, from the start of this election, a

:12:40. > :12:45.central part of their strategy was Ukip voters who may have previously

:12:46. > :12:49.been Labour voters, they hoped would go straight across to the

:12:50. > :12:52.Conservatives. There are 71 seat across the country where the Labour

:12:53. > :12:58.majority was smaller than the Ukip vote in 2015. Early, early days, but

:12:59. > :13:02.a pattern, even in these safe Labour seats, that the Ukip vote is

:13:03. > :13:06.crashing. The Conservatives need that to happen across the country if

:13:07. > :13:11.they are to enter up in a position to form a decent majority.

:13:12. > :13:14.It looks as if the Ukip vote is not crashing completely to the

:13:15. > :13:19.Conservatives, and that may be one of the reasons why Labour is doing a

:13:20. > :13:24.bit better than the pre-election polls. I am still trying to discover

:13:25. > :13:28.what happened in Houghton and Sunderland South. We have not been

:13:29. > :13:33.able to decipher the figures because apparently of a microphone failure

:13:34. > :13:40.at the counter. Have you got it on Twitter? Nobody has got it. We will

:13:41. > :13:49.try to get it in due course. Let's go to Tim Farron's seat, what was

:13:50. > :13:53.his seat, and joined Lucy Manning. Good evening. We are outside Tim

:13:54. > :13:58.Farron's house. We are expecting him back here fairly soon. If the exit

:13:59. > :14:02.poll is right, this will be seen as a pretty good night for the Liberal

:14:03. > :14:07.Democrats. Even if they only gain a handful of seats, the expectations

:14:08. > :14:09.were so low because there was such criticism of the campaign, the

:14:10. > :14:14.Liberal Democrats offering this second vote on a Brexit deal that

:14:15. > :14:18.the voters didn't seem to want, and questions about Tim Farron's

:14:19. > :14:26.leadership. But now with this exit poll suggesting they could get 14

:14:27. > :14:28.seats, it leaves him potentially in the position of a kingmaker. And

:14:29. > :14:31.yesterday, when I spent some time with him on the bus Mac, I talked

:14:32. > :14:38.over the notion of a hung parliament. He was absolutely clear

:14:39. > :14:42.there would be no deals, no pact, no coalition, no confidence of supply

:14:43. > :14:45.were they voted for the budget. Everyone remembers the Liberal

:14:46. > :14:49.Democrats got burned when they went into coalition. They lost all those

:14:50. > :14:53.seats at the last election. He is mindful of that and doesn't want to

:14:54. > :14:59.repeat that. Lib Dem sources denied being very clear that that position

:15:00. > :15:03.stays the same. No deals, no coalitions, no pacts. If there is a

:15:04. > :15:06.hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will be in a situation

:15:07. > :15:11.where both sides may want them but they will only offer support on a

:15:12. > :15:16.vote by the bases. I should add they are not sure this exit poll is

:15:17. > :15:20.right. They are being cautious. In previous years the exit polls had

:15:21. > :15:25.them on more seats than they ended up getting. They say some of their

:15:26. > :15:29.key battles are too close to call. They are seeing a hardening up of

:15:30. > :15:34.the vote for a Labour in some of the University seats they hope to get.

:15:35. > :15:38.But I think at the moment they are more optimistic than they thought

:15:39. > :15:42.they would be. Whether they have that traction we will discover as we

:15:43. > :15:47.get some more results in. We now have the Houghton and Sunderland

:15:48. > :15:55.South result. A safe Labour seat. There are the figures. 24,006 under

:15:56. > :16:01.65 for Labour. Ukip in third place. The Conservatives in second. The

:16:02. > :16:07.change from last time. The Conservatives up 11 percentage

:16:08. > :16:12.points. Ukip down 16. The swing here from Labour to Conservatives of

:16:13. > :16:18.3.5%. Peter Kellner, what do you make of that? The exit poll

:16:19. > :16:26.expectations must an exact swing in the opposite direction. These first

:16:27. > :16:30.two results unquestionably will be tuning the Conservatives up after a

:16:31. > :16:34.pretty grim hour after the exit poll. Whether that tumult carry on

:16:35. > :16:41.in the seeds that really matter, that will have to wait and see. What

:16:42. > :16:46.would you be looking for next as a test? These are both seats in the

:16:47. > :16:52.north-east. Where would you want to get your spread? It may be an hour

:16:53. > :17:00.or more. These seats rush to declare. We were told Slough would

:17:01. > :17:06.be very good. Slough will be interesting, Swindon North,

:17:07. > :17:11.Battersea and Putney, early London decorations, where the Conservatives

:17:12. > :17:17.may be vulnerable. Putney, Justine Greening, the Education Secretary.

:17:18. > :17:24.Tooting, a Labour seat that Sadiq Khan won two years ago. These are

:17:25. > :17:31.the kind of seats we will be waiting until two o'clock in the morning to

:17:32. > :17:34.get. These places where they rush to get the counts done within an hour,

:17:35. > :17:42.that is the exception. It will take a lot longer everywhere else. We're

:17:43. > :17:49.joined by a familiar figure, Neil Hamilton. Now a member of Ukip. It

:17:50. > :17:55.looks like a wipe-out for Ukip. You did your job, you got your Brexit

:17:56. > :18:00.and that is it, game is up? We have been squeezed. Theresa May intended

:18:01. > :18:03.this to be a binary competition between Labour and the Tories. It

:18:04. > :18:09.has not worked out as she expected after the disastrous campaign. Ukip

:18:10. > :18:12.as an enduring place in Welsh politics, certainly. We have our

:18:13. > :18:17.members in the Welsh Assembly for the next four years. I believe after

:18:18. > :18:21.this disastrous election for the Conservatives, we will be able to

:18:22. > :18:25.carve out a prominent niche for ourselves in UK politics as well,

:18:26. > :18:29.because we put forward a lot of policies in this election campaign

:18:30. > :18:32.which none of the other parties can copy us on, like slashing the

:18:33. > :18:39.humanitarian aid budget, putting money into the health service,

:18:40. > :18:44.scrapping green taxes. None of that came out in this campaign which was

:18:45. > :18:48.focused for Ukip supporters on the Brexit issue. A lot of them have

:18:49. > :18:52.clearly gone to the Tories. But her that Theresa May's position would

:18:53. > :18:59.have been very bleak indeed. Looks like Ukip will not have any seats in

:19:00. > :19:12.Westminster. No. Your strength will be in Wales, will it? It is. That

:19:13. > :19:14.was meant to be a tease! You could rebound from Wales. We have a

:19:15. > :19:18.proportional representation system which means we get fair

:19:19. > :19:24.representation, not liking the first past the post system at Westminster.

:19:25. > :19:31.Let's hear the reaction fted two results, if you have any in? The

:19:32. > :19:35.initial shock in Conservative circles have subsided and thoughts

:19:36. > :19:40.about the longer term implications. Tim Montgomerie an influential

:19:41. > :19:43.Conservative writer tweeted - May hae has been the most disastrous

:19:44. > :19:52.Tory leader since? ? ? . Anthonie Eden. There's talk about how long

:19:53. > :19:59.Slee would last as Prime Minister. And Tom Newton Dunne, editor of a

:20:00. > :20:03.paper who has been in support of Theresa May and they have crunched

:20:04. > :20:08.their numbers and he said he is convinced the exit poll is wrong,

:20:09. > :20:12."It simply just doesn't add up "Quop more broadly, talk about what it

:20:13. > :20:17.means for Brexit. Alastair Campbell, a vigorous Popent of Theresa May and

:20:18. > :20:22.Conservative -- a vigorous opponent of Theresa May. He says - "This

:20:23. > :20:26.election is a rejection of May and hard Brexit. A vote for one to go

:20:27. > :20:31.and the other to be revisited." That's be a big issue post-election

:20:32. > :20:35.discussion. And the former Swedish Prime Minister has also put out a

:20:36. > :20:40.message saying - "This could be messy for the United Kingdom in the

:20:41. > :20:46.years ahead, one mess risks following another, price to be paid

:20:47. > :20:48.for the lack of true leadership." So huge international implications and

:20:49. > :20:52.opponents of Theresa May in Europe are looking at this with some glee,

:20:53. > :21:02.I think. Laura back for a moment to the exit poll. What would Theresa

:21:03. > :21:07.May need to get to quell anxiety, fury, plotting, against her in the

:21:08. > :21:10.Conservative Party? What do you think now she's obviously heard the

:21:11. > :21:17.exit poll, what will she be thinking - how much do I need to remain Prime

:21:18. > :21:22.Minister? If the exit poll turns out to be anything like right, then it

:21:23. > :21:27.is very, very dicey for her. Why do I say that? Even after the campaign,

:21:28. > :21:30.one senior Conservative said to me today - after the mistakes she's

:21:31. > :21:34.made in the campaign, she will not be allowed to fight the next general

:21:35. > :21:37.election campaign. That was one view, but from a senior member of

:21:38. > :21:42.the party that said even the experience of seeing her exposed in

:21:43. > :21:45.some ways on the campaign trail, not seeming politically nimble and run a

:21:46. > :21:49.resounding campaign, that her time was limited in terms of staying on

:21:50. > :22:00.until the next general election. Now, of course, this could be wrong.

:22:01. > :22:04.A sigma jot, a safe majority could -- a significant majority, a safe

:22:05. > :22:09.majority could blow her out of the water. 30 and below I think she's

:22:10. > :22:14.damaged. Most Tories would be happy with 50 or 60 but if the poll is

:22:15. > :22:17.anything like right she is miles away. If she ends up with no overall

:22:18. > :22:22.majority, very damaged but I think it is a result, even if she climbs

:22:23. > :22:26.up to a majority of 15, 20, 25, 30, shes' still very, very tarnished by

:22:27. > :22:29.this whole experience. Of course, she had a working majority of 17.

:22:30. > :22:35.Which was uncomfortable, it was difficult. She had to give up on

:22:36. > :22:41.some things and change her mind and drop policies she is not going to be

:22:42. > :22:44.able to get through. She made the Chancellor ditch the central part of

:22:45. > :22:47.his budget because the party wouldn't wear it but she had a

:22:48. > :22:51.majority and was able to get things done. She didn't have to call this

:22:52. > :22:54.election. Do you think she will be able to change her Chancellor? Which

:22:55. > :22:59.everybody said before this election, that Hammond was on the way out? It

:23:00. > :23:03.was widely expected, if she ended up with a majority that she would sack

:23:04. > :23:08.Philip Hammond. You never know until the reshuffle comes. But she won't

:23:09. > :23:13.be in a strong position to do things that offend other parts of the party

:23:14. > :23:16.Indeed not. But in terms of the current balance of the Conservative

:23:17. > :23:19.Party, I think cheer leaders for Mr Hammond would not necessarily be in

:23:20. > :23:25.great enough numbers to be able to force her to keep him. That said, if

:23:26. > :23:28.the political situation seems extremely rocky, extremely

:23:29. > :23:31.uncertain, certainly in terms of the economic reaction, changing a

:23:32. > :23:35.Chancellor, who's respected by the City, is not something that would be

:23:36. > :23:40.seen as a wise move. I don't think that it is just us sitting here in

:23:41. > :23:43.the studio talking, all over the country, 650 places, well actually

:23:44. > :23:47.since we have had two, 648 places are busy counting. Let's see where

:23:48. > :23:53.they are. Islington, for instance, at the moment, where Jeremy Corbyn's

:23:54. > :23:58.seat is counted and Emily Thornbury's seat is counted.

:23:59. > :24:03.Huddersfield, where there are a whole clutch of marginal

:24:04. > :24:11.constituencies. In West Yorkshire, where the Conservatives were hoping

:24:12. > :24:18.to make grounds in. Two seats in Derby. And there where we were a

:24:19. > :24:24.moment ago, at Tim Farron's constituency. All of these people

:24:25. > :24:28.brought in as volunteers, paid, styles bank clerks paid to do this

:24:29. > :24:32.work. It is responsible. You have to open each occupy, verify t make sure

:24:33. > :24:37.you have made no mistake. Not electronic, all done by hand in the

:24:38. > :24:41.old-fashioned way. That's why it is taking time. If it is true that the

:24:42. > :24:45.turnout everywhere is up, then the slower pace of results is what we

:24:46. > :24:49.can expect. Mishal. David, with me is the former Labour Home Secretary

:24:50. > :24:56.and former Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. Welcome. When Corbyn was

:24:57. > :25:00.elected you said he would lead Labour into political oblivion, this

:25:01. > :25:04.is a night where the exit poll suggests Labour has made gains. Yes

:25:05. > :25:07.and if that is the case I'm delighted. I have been in the Labour

:25:08. > :25:11.Party actually slightly longer than Jeremy Corbyn and working in this

:25:12. > :25:15.election, as everybody has for a Labour victory. One of the really

:25:16. > :25:20.interesting things about this election, it is not without note, it

:25:21. > :25:24.is public, that a lot of people particularly in the parliamentary

:25:25. > :25:26.party or just left had reservations about Jeremy but one of the

:25:27. > :25:29.interesting things about the election is that the Labour Party

:25:30. > :25:33.has a whole has been very disciplined in this election, got

:25:34. > :25:38.behind Jeremy Corbyn, got behind the manifesto and if this exit poll is

:25:39. > :25:43.anything to go by, it suggests we have done better than most people

:25:44. > :25:48.thought Are you suggesting it is more about the party and the party

:25:49. > :25:53.machine than a personal vindication? No, listen, it is also a great

:25:54. > :25:57.personal credit to Jeremy Corbyn, if this is correct and to John

:25:58. > :26:01.MacDonald and no-one can take it away from them. What you have seen

:26:02. > :26:04.in the election, and I didn't expect it, is great vigour and consistency

:26:05. > :26:08.by the Labour Party, including on the ground, by Labour candidates.

:26:09. > :26:15.Again, the thing I didn't expect was that in place of a strong and stable

:26:16. > :26:20.leader, to coin a phrase, you have had a weak and wobbly leader and

:26:21. > :26:23.this is a sort of disaster for both the Conservative Party and for

:26:24. > :26:28.Theresa May. The only perhaps, silver lining out of it, from the

:26:29. > :26:32.country's point of view, if it ends up with a hung Parliament, with the

:26:33. > :26:36.Conservatives being the largest party, you may get a more sensible

:26:37. > :26:41.set of negotiations for Brexit, than would otherwise be the case. Well,

:26:42. > :26:46.not necessarily. It depends where she looks for support. If it's the

:26:47. > :26:51.DUP, for example, the obvious people she will turn to in the first

:26:52. > :26:56.instance. But if you are in a minority. I worked in a minority

:26:57. > :27:00.Government. I worked in the 1976-79 Labour Government. And if you are in

:27:01. > :27:05.that situation, you have to compromise not only with your own

:27:06. > :27:12.side but also with the other side as well. It is just the way

:27:13. > :27:17.thealchairmeny and chemistry of Parliament works -- the alchemy.

:27:18. > :27:23.John, a questiony about the exit poll. People saying that maybe 20 or

:27:24. > :27:26.25% of people have cast postal ballots. You stand your people at

:27:27. > :27:31.secret. I know because I have asked you to tell me where they are, and

:27:32. > :27:34.you won't tell me. Secret polling stations around the country, 144,

:27:35. > :27:38.what happens about the postal ballots, one-quarter of the vote?

:27:39. > :27:42.Well, what we are doing with the exit poll is comparing how people

:27:43. > :27:47.who went to the polling station voted this time with how those

:27:48. > :27:53.people who went to the same polling station two years ago voted. So the

:27:54. > :27:56.assumption we are essentially making is not necessarily that postal

:27:57. > :27:59.voters will vote the same way as those who went to the polling

:28:00. > :28:03.station but that the movement in whatever direction will be roughly

:28:04. > :28:08.similar amongst those who voted by post and those who voted at

:28:09. > :28:14.stations. It is a sample, really Obviously it may be true they behave

:28:15. > :28:20.differently. The one thing I can tell you is one of the things we

:28:21. > :28:24.looked at our data is our polling stations vary in the proportion of

:28:25. > :28:26.people who are registered to vote by post but there isn't any

:28:27. > :28:28.relationship between the swing to the Conservatives or Labour or

:28:29. > :28:31.whatever and the proportion of people in pooling station that were

:28:32. > :28:36.registered to vote by post. One other thing - is it possible under

:28:37. > :28:41.your exit poll that there could be nevertheless, at the end of the

:28:42. > :28:44.night, be a big or substantial Conservative majority It depends how

:28:45. > :28:48.you define substantial or big. Peter Kellner's point. How would you

:28:49. > :28:55.define it? He is on post now. I would say if the exit poll is as

:28:56. > :29:00.wrong everywhere else than it is in the first two results, it could be

:29:01. > :29:06.800, 100 majority but if you dial it down, a majority of 30 or o 40 A

:29:07. > :29:13.majority of 30 or 40 I think we stillville to reward as potentially

:29:14. > :29:18.possible. He said 80 or 100? Well shall we say, we would be clearly

:29:19. > :29:21.astray. I don't want to bore you. Never. One thing that happens with

:29:22. > :29:24.exit polls is they exaggerate the forecasts in terms of the

:29:25. > :29:34.differences between constituencies, OK. Because we are looking at two

:29:35. > :29:39.constituents, in where we are -- constited sis, where we are looking

:29:40. > :29:43.at a swing to Labour, it maybe that we've exaggerated the extent to

:29:44. > :29:48.which that is going on. I will come back to you in a moment but Katya

:29:49. > :29:54.Adler is standing by in Brussels, our Europe editor. Let's speak to

:29:55. > :30:00.her. Have you had a reaction to the surprising exit poll, let me put it

:30:01. > :30:04.no stronger than, that that we have had this evening? No official

:30:05. > :30:08.reaction so far. We are talking about exit polls but I would love to

:30:09. > :30:12.see the thought bubbles here in Brussels and in political and EU

:30:13. > :30:16.circles in Berlin and Paris tonight. It is in all of these places across

:30:17. > :30:18.Europe that people, politicians, leaders are glued to their

:30:19. > :30:25.television and radio sets tonight. It is not just in the United

:30:26. > :30:30.Kingdom. Because, of course this will have a huge impact on Brexit.

:30:31. > :30:34.The EU didn't really care how these elections would turn out. What

:30:35. > :30:40.flavour of Government would turn out in the UK but nearly a year on after

:30:41. > :30:43.the EU referendum they want to get down to business. They were hoping

:30:44. > :30:46.to start the face-to-face negotiations with the UK for the

:30:47. > :30:50.first time in about ten days' time. Now all of this, there is a big

:30:51. > :30:54.question mark hanging over it. They wanted what they've said was a

:30:55. > :30:57.strong Prime Minister, a secure Prime Minister, somebody who would

:30:58. > :31:02.be in place for the duration of the negotiations. Somebody who knew

:31:03. > :31:04.their mind and were confident in it and wouldn't be beholden to smaller

:31:05. > :31:07.groups, whether within their party or outside their party. What the EU

:31:08. > :31:16.doesn't want, once negotiations start, is one who waifs and u-turns

:31:17. > :31:20.and doesn't know their minds. -- waivers.

:31:21. > :31:26.And it is important for the UK, Article 50 bass strirged the

:31:27. > :31:30.countdown to Brexit has started under EU rules. They have to get

:31:31. > :31:35.that divorce deal sign, sealed and delivered by the EU, never mind a

:31:36. > :31:41.future trade dee. Any hesitation is costly for the UK. -- trade deal. So

:31:42. > :31:45.in other words they did want Theresa May to get a hefty majority. You

:31:46. > :31:49.said at the beginning they didn't care but from what you said

:31:50. > :31:54.subsequently, if they want clarity or a leader who knows what she's

:31:55. > :31:59.doing and doesn't have to look over her shoulder all the time, a big

:32:00. > :32:03.majority for May would've helped them They didn't want Theresa May or

:32:04. > :32:06.Jeremy Corbyn more than anyone else. They just said they wanted a Prime

:32:07. > :32:10.Minister secure enough in their position to be able to know their

:32:11. > :32:16.mind and push forward the negotiations o, to appoint a chief

:32:17. > :32:20.Brexit negotiator for the EU, the most important figure, sitting

:32:21. > :32:25.opposite them at the table, with the chief EU negotiator who comes from

:32:26. > :32:30.the European Commission and they will be discussing tout, week by

:32:31. > :32:35.week, month by month, right up to the next minute, probably, by all

:32:36. > :32:39.Brussels' deals in the past. So what they need is a ghaft is stable, but

:32:40. > :32:42.not particularly, for EU tastes, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn or

:32:43. > :32:45.anybody else, but somebody who will remain in that seat for the duration

:32:46. > :32:51.of the negotiations. It is interesting this. You know there was

:32:52. > :32:54.some criticism of the campaign. We had John McDonnell complaining that

:32:55. > :32:58.Brexit never surfaced and he never talked about Brexit and how it would

:32:59. > :33:03.be conducted. The Conservatives never really talked about it. Is

:33:04. > :33:09.there a feeling in Brussels that they have ideas, they know the way

:33:10. > :33:14.they want Brexit to go but the British Government doesn't know the

:33:15. > :33:19.way it wants it to go? That is so much the feeling here. I mean, from

:33:20. > :33:22.the Brussels' perspective or EU perspective, if you like, the UK

:33:23. > :33:26.seems Will seemed to tear itself apart after the EU referendum with

:33:27. > :33:30.recriminations between Leavers and Remainers and it dived into

:33:31. > :33:33.preparations for a general election and in the meantime almost #12b

:33:34. > :33:39.months have gone by and during that time, the -- 12 months have gone by

:33:40. > :33:45.and during that time the EU is getting its Brexit ducks in a row.

:33:46. > :33:51.It has its chief negotiator in place and he has his team and they have

:33:52. > :33:57.been dotting the I's and crossing the T's. They have draft papers

:33:58. > :34:03.already on specific points like the amount of money itp wants the UK to

:34:04. > :34:07.pay before he leaves the EU. The EU citizens' rights, the rights of EU

:34:08. > :34:12.citizens who stay in the UK after Brexit and the rights of UK citizens

:34:13. > :34:17.in the EU. Now Theresa May said they had a clear plan but they didn't

:34:18. > :34:22.want to divulge it but as far as the public was concerned there were a

:34:23. > :34:26.lot of platitudes spread around, Brexit means Brexit and no more

:34:27. > :34:30.details than that. The EU is a big, big contrast. They can't keep

:34:31. > :34:33.anything a secret because there are so many players involve. 27

:34:34. > :34:36.countries, plus the European Commission and European Parliament.

:34:37. > :34:40.They are being transparent. They are publishing this and there are a lot

:34:41. > :34:45.of details prepared already. Thank you very much.

:34:46. > :34:53.Let's go to Cambridge. The Conservatives hold the seat. The

:34:54. > :34:56.Liberal Democrats are hoping to take it. Is it your impression that the

:34:57. > :35:03.Liberal Democrats think they may have taken Cambridge, or Labour has

:35:04. > :35:07.kept it? I think the feeling very much in the hall, on the ground is

:35:08. > :35:12.that Labour is going to squeak it and hold on. It is one of the

:35:13. > :35:15.tightest battle grounds in the country and it has been a bitter,

:35:16. > :35:21.bitter battle between Labour and the Lib Dems. In Cambridge as

:35:22. > :35:26.nationally, the Lib Dems have fought on offering a second EU referendum.

:35:27. > :35:31.In Cambridge, if they can't take Cambridge, one of the cities with

:35:32. > :35:35.the highest Remain votes in the country, the feeling is that that

:35:36. > :35:42.so-called Lib Dem surge won't happen despite what the exit polls say. The

:35:43. > :35:45.student vote is absolutely key. There are about 12,000, 13,000

:35:46. > :35:51.registered voters. We don't know whether they are going to vote,

:35:52. > :35:56.where they are going to vote, in Cambridge or their home address. But

:35:57. > :36:01.the senses they have come out. That means a Labour hold. In this hole

:36:02. > :36:10.already, thoughts of a recount are not being dismissed. We do think at

:36:11. > :36:14.the moment a Labour hold. Your Air Canada Centre is particularly

:36:15. > :36:21.beautiful. Where is it you are? It is a lot better than the school

:36:22. > :36:26.gymnasium juicy. It is in the Guild Hall, slap bang in the Market

:36:27. > :36:32.Square. Few hundred yards away from The Leaders Debate took place. We

:36:33. > :36:37.are very much in the centre of Cambridge. We talk about the

:36:38. > :36:42.referendum and the Remain votes, only about 200 yards away from here

:36:43. > :36:47.is the constituency warred with the highest Remain vote in the entire

:36:48. > :36:56.United Kingdom. Let's go to Hastings. There are some smiles on

:36:57. > :37:03.the faces, apparently, of Labour. That is right, yes. Labour seem

:37:04. > :37:07.pretty ecstatic. That is a big contrast from both the Conservatives

:37:08. > :37:11.and the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives looking tense and

:37:12. > :37:16.nervous. Just talking to the Conservative Party chairman. He says

:37:17. > :37:21.they have had a positive campaign but a strong vote in the county

:37:22. > :37:26.areas. They were not very keen to talk beyond that. This is the seat

:37:27. > :37:31.held by the current Home Secretary, Amber Rudd. No sign of her yet. We

:37:32. > :37:36.have been told she will not give any media interviews today. That remains

:37:37. > :37:44.to be seen. Labour say they have had a fantastic campaign, despite this

:37:45. > :37:46.being a snap election. They say they mobilised 2000 volunteers and have

:37:47. > :37:51.canvassed more homes than ever before. That is because of Jeremy

:37:52. > :37:54.Corbyn, they say. The Liberal Democrats say their vote has been

:37:55. > :37:59.completely squeezed and they are worried about losing their deposit.

:38:00. > :38:07.Thank you. Sophie Raworth is in the north-east. You have two more

:38:08. > :38:10.declarations. What is the timetable? Sunderland Central is the one we are

:38:11. > :38:16.expecting next. It is taking an awfully lot longer than it usually

:38:17. > :38:20.does. They are still counting the votes for Sunderland Central over

:38:21. > :38:27.there. One of the main reasons it is taking longer is because the turnout

:38:28. > :38:35.is up again in this seat. 62.1%. That is 5% higher than it was in

:38:36. > :38:39.2015. It is a funny atmosphere here in this vast sports hall. People are

:38:40. > :38:44.genuinely baffled. They are not sure what to make of it all. When that

:38:45. > :38:47.exit poll came out, there was real surprise among some Labour

:38:48. > :38:53.supporters. They didn't really expect to see anything like that.

:38:54. > :38:59.Others say it was something they saw reflected on the doorsteps during

:39:00. > :39:03.the campaign. Some of the campaign officials believe the rise of the

:39:04. > :39:08.bigger turnout is down to more young people engaging. That is what they

:39:09. > :39:11.are sensing about this campaign. The next result we are going to get will

:39:12. > :39:20.be the Sunderland Central seat that was held by Julie Elliott. She had a

:39:21. > :39:27.huge majority. 50% of the share in 2015. Again there was a very big

:39:28. > :39:31.Ukip surge in 2015. They had 19% of the vote. It will be interesting to

:39:32. > :39:35.see what happens to that and where it goes. How much of that vote

:39:36. > :39:42.Labour get, how much the Conservatives get. But the count,

:39:43. > :39:49.the declaration, is expected in about ten or 15 minutes.

:39:50. > :39:52.Wales, Emily. Let's look at Wales. It is not just Sunderland where they

:39:53. > :39:56.are baffled. We are acknowledging that things are up in the air. We

:39:57. > :40:02.are maybe recalibrating some of our forecasts. I pointed out some of the

:40:03. > :40:06.seats were Labour have a 90% chance of taking them from the

:40:07. > :40:09.Conservatives. I am now going to point out some seats the

:40:10. > :40:14.Conservatives could take from Labour. They are mostly in this part

:40:15. > :40:20.of North Wales. I would show you one on the Wales England border, which

:40:21. > :40:25.we could get in quite early. Wrexham has been Labour since 1935. The

:40:26. > :40:33.Conservatives need a 3% swing. A Labour majority of just short of

:40:34. > :40:38.2000. On our forecast, it suggests the Conservatives could take up to a

:40:39. > :40:40.50% share of the vote. That is Wrexham. We will be able to compare

:40:41. > :40:47.that with the real result when we get that in. Delyn in North Wales is

:40:48. > :40:55.another one. This is the 2015 fold. Labour on 41% to 33% from the

:40:56. > :40:59.Conservatives. It has been Labour since 1932. A majority of just short

:41:00. > :41:04.of 3000. The forecast would suggest the Conservatives can take a 51%

:41:05. > :41:14.share of the vote. The Conservatives need a 4% swing. The lead votes in

:41:15. > :41:19.these seats in the mid-50s. The same part of the world, this is 2015.

:41:20. > :41:24.Alyn and Deeside. Labour in the lead. On current forecast there

:41:25. > :41:28.could be a move to the Conservatives of more than 10%. That would put the

:41:29. > :41:35.Conservatives into this seat. And the last one, Clywd South, a

:41:36. > :41:40.majority of 2500. You can see Labour holds it at the moment. Susan Elan

:41:41. > :41:44.Jones. It is suggesting the Conservatives could take it. These

:41:45. > :41:47.are very interesting. Very different to the ones we have been looking at

:41:48. > :41:51.in England, where I showed you some of the movement that Labour is

:41:52. > :41:56.expected to be making, according to the exit polls. That is what we are

:41:57. > :41:59.now going to compare Juanmi get the first Wales won in. It will be

:42:00. > :42:05.interesting if throughout the country we see Conservatives being

:42:06. > :42:11.better -- doing better in Leave areas, which in North Wales

:42:12. > :42:14.suggests... That was sort of what we were expecting. At the beginning of

:42:15. > :42:17.the night we thought we would see Labour possibly doing better in

:42:18. > :42:22.Wales, in London, and the Conservatives doing better in other

:42:23. > :42:26.parts of the UK. A lot of things are up in the air. We're just waiting

:42:27. > :42:33.for any indication of what is going on on the ground.

:42:34. > :42:38.Laura, what news have you got? From around the front just some tips

:42:39. > :42:43.coming to me. The Tories are looking very hopeful in Gordon in Scotland.

:42:44. > :42:50.We know the Tories are expecting probably around eight seats in terms

:42:51. > :42:53.of taking them from the SNP in Scotland. Gordon matters because

:42:54. > :42:59.this is the constituency of Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader. He

:43:00. > :43:03.is a major figure in Scottish politics. The Tories have been

:43:04. > :43:10.targeting that's it aggressively. Soundings from there that they have

:43:11. > :43:14.done very well. Labour are hopeful in Edinburgh South. They have taken

:43:15. > :43:19.that seat from the SNP. More importantly for the national

:43:20. > :43:24.picture, Labour quietly confident in Croydon Central. That was around

:43:25. > :43:29.number 40 in their English targets. It would give us a flavour of the

:43:30. > :43:34.kinds of places they think they can take. Labour quietly confident in

:43:35. > :43:37.Croydon Central. We had -- heard during the day that they were

:43:38. > :43:41.flooding it with activists to get the vote out. That could be the kind

:43:42. > :43:48.of seat that tells us a lot about the general direction. We should

:43:49. > :43:51.explain the expression quietly confident. Quietly confident at the

:43:52. > :43:57.count because they have seen the number of ballot papers lining up?

:43:58. > :44:01.These are soundings from this evening. Soundings from a variety of

:44:02. > :44:07.people at cans were seeing how things are stacking up, and that

:44:08. > :44:14.parties' operations where they are getting information from the cans.

:44:15. > :44:20.When I used to go to cans, you could actually see how it stored. Even

:44:21. > :44:24.though you could not say it. Everybody seems to be accepting that

:44:25. > :44:28.the turnout is well up. It seems at this early stage that is because of

:44:29. > :44:32.younger people. That is of course what Jeremy Corbyn was looking for.

:44:33. > :44:37.One Cabinet minister has just said to me that this is the election

:44:38. > :44:41.where young people started voting. And perhaps tomorrow it may seem for

:44:42. > :44:47.all the political parties that the demographics of who they have to try

:44:48. > :44:52.to please may be shifting. With me is the cabinet minister,

:44:53. > :44:56.pretty Patel, the International Development Secretary. I know you

:44:57. > :45:04.will get to your own count in Essex. Let's talk about the exit poll,

:45:05. > :45:08.along with two results. If the exit poll is correct, it was the wrong

:45:09. > :45:13.decision for Theresa May to call the election? The exit poll is only a

:45:14. > :45:17.projection, and illustration, it is not the actual result. There is a

:45:18. > :45:20.long way to go. The point about calling the election, as the Prime

:45:21. > :45:24.Minister said when she announced that, the country has a choice in

:45:25. > :45:27.leadership. Look at the big decisions that are opened coming

:45:28. > :45:32.around Brexit, look at the choices we will have to make as a country.

:45:33. > :45:37.That of course is what this election campaign has been about for the

:45:38. > :45:41.Conservative Party. The Prime Minister's campaign was very robust.

:45:42. > :45:45.There was very little the Conservative Party put forward about

:45:46. > :45:52.Brexit? I disagree with that completely. What detail did you put

:45:53. > :45:56.forward? The Prime Minister has been clear in speeches, the 12 points

:45:57. > :46:00.around negotiation, taking back control about money, orders,

:46:01. > :46:06.safeguarding workers' rights. These are key areas. She and others have

:46:07. > :46:10.spoken about them during the campaign. I don't think it is right

:46:11. > :46:15.to say we have not been focused on Brexit. We have been very clear.

:46:16. > :46:19.This is a complete contrast to other parties who want to frustrate

:46:20. > :46:25.Brexit. When it came to the Labour Party, they have not got a coherent

:46:26. > :46:28.plan on Brexit. If your party ends up with a reduced majority or no

:46:29. > :46:33.overall majority in the House of Commons, what would that mean for

:46:34. > :46:36.her personally? First of all, I don't accept and I will not go down

:46:37. > :46:42.the road of speculating what will happen. What we will see, results

:46:43. > :46:46.coming together through the night. We have a Prime Minister in Theresa

:46:47. > :46:52.May in particular who has been very strong in terms of the challenges,

:46:53. > :46:56.tackling the reach challenges -- real challenges, and being frank

:46:57. > :47:00.with the public. We have significant negotiations we will be going into

:47:01. > :47:04.in 11 days. That is the real focus. And obviously macro we want to make

:47:05. > :47:08.sure, and she has been clear that she goes out there and battle is

:47:09. > :47:14.forbidden, get a good deal for Britain, as we go forward and

:47:15. > :47:18.negotiate Britain's future. She could be in a position where Brexit

:47:19. > :47:21.negotiations are going to start next week and she is looking around to

:47:22. > :47:28.see where she can find the support to shore up her position? She has

:47:29. > :47:32.been clear, and the Conservative Party has been clear, post the

:47:33. > :47:36.referendum that Brexit means Brexit. We are going to deliver Brexit. We

:47:37. > :47:43.need to get on and do that and safeguard the right deal. If this is

:47:44. > :47:47.borne out, she is in a very difficult position, isn't she? I

:47:48. > :47:51.don't think so. Nothing changes. The negotiations will be happening. She

:47:52. > :47:57.is clear. She is a woman of great conviction. She wants to get the

:47:58. > :48:00.best deal for Britain. She is putting our national interest front

:48:01. > :48:06.and centre of the negotiations. That is where her energies will be. Did

:48:07. > :48:10.she herself want to call this election was she talked into it? It

:48:11. > :48:17.was her choice. She made that difficult decision. Was it her

:48:18. > :48:21.initiative, or was she talked into it? She is Prime Minister and she

:48:22. > :48:25.made that call. She was very clear why. To look to the future, to

:48:26. > :48:28.strengthen our hand, to negotiate the best deal for Britain. I think

:48:29. > :48:33.she has fought the campaign very strongly. Travelling the country

:48:34. > :48:40.endlessly, day in, day out, as all colleagues have been.

:48:41. > :48:46.The result for the Sunderland Central constituency is as follows.

:48:47. > :48:57.John Christopher Cockburn, independent, 305 volts.

:48:58. > :49:15.-- volts. Julie Elliott, Labour Party, 25,056 votes.

:49:16. > :49:28.Rachael Featherstone, Green Party candidate. 7057 votes.

:49:29. > :49:46.Niall Hodson, 1,177 votes, Liberal Democrats. Gary James Leighton, UK

:49:47. > :49:55.Independence Party, 2,209 votes. Robert Jeffrey Oliver, Conservative

:49:56. > :49:59.Party, 15,059 votes. And I, therefore, declare that Julie

:50:00. > :50:02.Elliott has been duly elected to serve as member for the said

:50:03. > :50:07.constituency and I would like to invite the candidate to say a few

:50:08. > :50:11.words. OK, so once again, Sunderland Central, the third result we have

:50:12. > :50:13.had in. I have had to say immediately better for the

:50:14. > :50:17.Conservatives than the exit polls suggested, worse for Labour than the

:50:18. > :50:23.exit polls suggested. Labour hold it, of course you see the majority

:50:24. > :50:26.of 9,000 nearly 10,000, the share of the vote, though, 56% for Labour, 33

:50:27. > :50:27.for the Conservatives. of 9,000 nearly 10,000, the share of

:50:28. > :50:33.the vote, though, 56% for Labour, 33 for the Conservatives. Ukip down at

:50:34. > :50:37.5%. The change, Labour up 5, the Conservatives up 10, Ukip down 14

:50:38. > :50:45.and this is the one to look at, a swing from Labour to the

:50:46. > :50:52.Conservatives of 2.3%. There is a quote from Theresa May, this has

:50:53. > :50:55.just come in, I think? OK, don't worry about it. It was from the 20th

:50:56. > :50:57.May. That result? just come in, I think? OK, don't

:50:58. > :51:02.worry about it. It was from the 20th May. That result? This is in a sense

:51:03. > :51:04.in line with the other Sunderland seats and Newcastle. Those

:51:05. > :51:07.north-eastern seats, all the Conservatives are doing

:51:08. > :51:12.substantially better and Labour substantially worse than the exit

:51:13. > :51:17.poll. Could I broaden this out to the postal vote. If you are quick.

:51:18. > :51:20.Because my sources inside the Labour Party say they are very worried that

:51:21. > :51:23.outside London, there is a huge swing to the Conservatives amongst

:51:24. > :51:28.people who voted by post. And, therefore, are not being picked up

:51:29. > :51:33.by the exit poll. If they are right, then that suggests the Conservatives

:51:34. > :51:40.will end the right rather better. On the other hand, if amber Rudd is in

:51:41. > :51:44.trouble in Hastings, then Labour is doing Bert than the polls suggest.

:51:45. > :51:50.Conflicting information. I wouldn't put any money on any results between

:51:51. > :51:55.the Conservatives getting 310 and 350 or 360 seats. Telford also

:51:56. > :52:02.proving very close. Labour hoping to oust the forries. Let's see the --

:52:03. > :52:06.the Tories. Let's see the north-east vote. Lets go around to prove things

:52:07. > :52:12.are happening. Cardiff, Aberdeen, Leeds. The three places where counts

:52:13. > :52:18.are going on, we'll join Emily for a look at the North East, the three

:52:19. > :52:21.results we have had in so far are all from there, everything we are

:52:22. > :52:28.extrapolating comes from the North East. Emily. What I have done, I

:52:29. > :52:30.have put up three swings now of the seats that we have in, declared

:52:31. > :52:33.already. You can see a sort of have put up three swings now of the

:52:34. > :52:34.seats that we have already. You can see a sort of

:52:35. > :52:38.pattern emerging. Nmplgts Sunderland South and Central we have a swing to

:52:39. > :52:44.the Conservatives away from Labour. Here in Sunderland South of 3%, and

:52:45. > :52:48.smaller in Sunderland Central and in Newcastle Central a swing towards

:52:49. > :52:55.Labour, a smaller one of 2.1. What difference, shall we say? Well Leave

:52:56. > :53:00.vote was 48% in Newcastle central, higher in Sunderland, around the 6

:53:01. > :53:05.#0s, so it tends to suggest, on this scant evidence, so far, the

:53:06. > :53:10.Conservatives might be doing better in places shall as we'd expect where

:53:11. > :53:14.the Leave vote is higher and Newcastle tends to be pushing

:53:15. > :53:15.towards Labour there on a higher Remain vote.

:53:16. > :53:19.Newcastle tends to be pushing towards Labour there on a higher

:53:20. > :53:25.Remain vote. Down to Brighton on the South coast where the Conservatives

:53:26. > :53:30.hold Brighton there, where Labour was hoping to challenge them and

:53:31. > :53:36.where there was the only Green MP in the last House of Commons, Julian is

:53:37. > :53:40.there. What is the story there? Yes, good evening from the stadium here

:53:41. > :53:44.in Brighton. As you say three seats being counted here. It won't be

:53:45. > :53:49.declaring for a good few hours here. You mention Brighton Kempton and in

:53:50. > :53:53.the light of that exit poll there is undoubtedly anxiety, I wouldn't put

:53:54. > :54:00.it more strongly than that, but anxiety among the Conservative camp

:54:01. > :54:06.because Simon Kirby is contesting that seat for the Conservatives. He

:54:07. > :54:09.won two years ago and Labour ran it close and there is no Green

:54:10. > :54:14.candidate standing. There has been a hint of the grossive alliance going

:54:15. > :54:19.on here, in the Brighton, Pavilion, the seat Caroline Lucas is defending

:54:20. > :54:23.for the Green Party, she won by nearly 8,000 two years ago, there is

:54:24. > :54:27.no Liberal Democrat standing there. Hove is the other seat being counted

:54:28. > :54:36.near Brighton. That was Labour by about 1200 last time. In the light

:54:37. > :54:41.of that exit poll Labour hopeful they'll be able to hold on to that.

:54:42. > :54:46.The other interesting thing about Brighton and three seats is the Ukip

:54:47. > :54:49.vote. Ukip only standing in one of the three seats. There is not

:54:50. > :54:54.natural Ukip territory. It was a very strong Remain area. More than

:54:55. > :55:00.68% of people in Brighton and Hove voted Remain in the EU referendum

:55:01. > :55:04.but in the two seats where they are not standing this time, their vote

:55:05. > :55:07.still two years ago was sufficient to have a bearing on the outcome

:55:08. > :55:12.when those results were very close. So a lot to consider here. When

:55:13. > :55:16.thing you won't get is a speeding result. We are talking about a

:55:17. > :55:20.declaration maybe 5am or 6am, so it is coffees all around for the next

:55:21. > :55:26.few hours. Thank you. Kirsty Wark joins us from Glasgow with snus to

:55:27. > :55:31.the SNP reaction to the news of the exit polls, I put it like that,

:55:32. > :55:37.Kirsty Yes, good evening from Glasgow. I have spoken to John

:55:38. > :55:47.Mason, one SNP MSP, saying they are very much under statement. "I think

:55:48. > :55:53.we are doing a little worse than I thought we were going to do." - an

:55:54. > :55:59.understatement. You so if the exit poll is right and if the SNP do drop

:56:00. > :56:03.the seats they are still the largest party but the interesting thing is,

:56:04. > :56:07.it'll be a real triumph for Ruth Davidson. Theres a only been one

:56:08. > :56:12.Tory MP in Scotland since 1996. So whatever happens it Theresa May

:56:13. > :56:16.this, will be seen as a very good night for Ruth Davidson. She wants

:56:17. > :56:22.to pick up ten seats, she may pick up eight. We've heard Laura said the

:56:23. > :56:32.totemic seats of gore done may go and seats may be lost. And they are

:56:33. > :56:36.banging on BP indyref2, the very -- banging on about indyref2, that they

:56:37. > :56:41.didn't want her to talk about and think it has paid off but

:56:42. > :56:47.interestingly they may be able to make a grossive alliance and be able

:56:48. > :56:51.to make negotiations. What about Liberal Democrats and Labour? What

:56:52. > :56:56.drift do you get about their feeling on the way they have done? The

:56:57. > :57:01.Liberal Democrats are interesting for two reasons - they may well take

:57:02. > :57:05.Dumbartonshire, Joe Swinton's seat. She was the equalities minister in

:57:06. > :57:11.the coalition. She has been nursing that seat since she lost it top John

:57:12. > :57:16.Nicholson of the SNP. Also Fife where Nicola Sturgeon was last week,

:57:17. > :57:20.trying to shore up the vote there, if they lose Fife there, to the

:57:21. > :57:23.Liberal Democrats, it'll show that the Liberal Democrats are on their

:57:24. > :57:28.way back in Scotland. What is not clear from the Glasgow vote here is

:57:29. > :57:33.that Labour may take one Glasgow seat, we don't know yet but no sign

:57:34. > :57:36.of a Labour return in Scotland. It'll definitely be the fact that

:57:37. > :57:41.Ruth Davidson is her own woman, the Liberal Democrats are not dead in

:57:42. > :57:45.the water and the chances that this has been the SNP's high water mark

:57:46. > :57:49.may come true. And Kirsty, how long, how long, how long, until we get a

:57:50. > :57:53.result? How long, how long? How long, how long? Well, you know, it

:57:54. > :57:59.maybe that the Glasgow East result is at 2.00am and in fact not long

:58:00. > :58:09.after that, we understand, we hope that Nicola Sturgeon will arrive

:58:10. > :58:11.about 3.00. We'll rejoin you. I suspect before then but definitely

:58:12. > :58:17.then. The Liberal Democrats you are saying have a problem? Some of the

:58:18. > :58:22.Liberal Democrats are wore jid that Nick Clegg might lose his seat in

:58:23. > :58:27.Sheffield hall A he had a majority of just over 2,000. But I think the

:58:28. > :58:30.Liberal Democrats are a bit worried he may not be in the Liberal

:58:31. > :58:34.Democrat contingepent in the new House of Commons. Really? --

:58:35. > :58:38.Sheffield Hallam. Really? Some people thought he fought a better

:58:39. > :58:43.campaign than Tim Farron. I mean I know he has a lot of history hanging

:58:44. > :58:48.on him, the co-alanes tuition fees and all that but when he spoke he

:58:49. > :58:57.was quite strong about bricts particularly. -- coalition. You are

:58:58. > :59:01.talking about personal results. We weren't clear whether the students

:59:02. > :59:06.were still in residence or if they have all gone home. His constituency

:59:07. > :59:12.is very much a student constituency? Ah. You go away and work that out.

:59:13. > :59:17.We know. You note answer Students have the confusing things of being

:59:18. > :59:21.able to register on two places, hard to work out. The Liberal Democrats

:59:22. > :59:26.nationally, whatever the exit poll says, Liberal Democrats HQ say they

:59:27. > :59:30.would be content withholding their ground, which was eight MPs.

:59:31. > :00:09.Newcastle East is up. Green Party candidate, 755. Simon

:00:10. > :00:28.John Kitchen, the Conservative Party candidate, 8,866. Tony Sanderson, UK

:00:29. > :00:29.Independence Party, Ukip, 1,315. Wendy Taylor, Liberal Democrats,

:00:30. > :00:51.2,574. Nicholas Brown has been duly elected

:00:52. > :00:57.to stand for this constituency. Nick Brown he holds the seat. Once again,

:00:58. > :01:01.better for the Conservatives than for Labour whenner compared to the

:01:02. > :01:05.exit poll. A good result for the Conservatives in Newcastle East. So

:01:06. > :01:20.let's go to Swindon where we have a count, I hope coming. Swindon.

:01:21. > :01:51.Justin Tomlinson, the Conservative Party candidate, 29,400...

:01:52. > :02:05.Labour Mark Dempsey, 21,000. There were 104 rejected ballot papers and

:02:06. > :02:13.Justin Tomlinson is duly elected the Member of Parliament for North

:02:14. > :02:17.Swindon. Thank you. Well, once again, the sound quality is abysmal

:02:18. > :02:23.from these places. We are meant to be in 2017. Not 1917. It's absurd

:02:24. > :02:29.but anyway there are the figures. We have managed to extract them. I

:02:30. > :02:37.don't know how but here they are. The Conservatives on 29,431 and

:02:38. > :02:43.Labour on 21,000. The share, 54-48. There is a fly in the studio, which

:02:44. > :02:46.is irritating. We have been trying to get rid of it for the last three

:02:47. > :02:57.days but it Conservatives up three,

:02:58. > :03:01.Conservatives up 11, Ukip down 12 a 3.7% swing from Conservative to

:03:02. > :03:05.Labour. John, how does this alie itself with your exit poll. I

:03:06. > :03:09.mustn't call it yours, the exit poll. This is a slightly better

:03:10. > :03:13.result for Labour than we expected. The Conservatives have won. We

:03:14. > :03:19.expected them to hold the seat but we have had a better than expected

:03:20. > :03:22.result here and also the last Newcastle result was also in fact

:03:23. > :03:28.better than expected from the exit poll. So, just bear in mind in this

:03:29. > :03:32.early part of the night, you will indeed get lots of variation around

:03:33. > :03:36.the broad story but so far at least I think we should all just be

:03:37. > :03:40.holding our nerve in temples whether or not indeed the Conservatives are

:03:41. > :03:43.going to get simply a modestly bad night a disappointing night or

:03:44. > :03:44.indeed whether it is going to be worse than that.

:03:45. > :03:44.or not indeed the Conservatives are going to get simply a modestly

:03:45. > :03:49.indeed whether it is going to be worse than that. To use the old

:03:50. > :03:54.cliche, it is all to play for, which I refuse to say but it is what it

:03:55. > :03:56.is. Yes, we don't have enough information in these results. A

:03:57. > :03:59.couple of swings to the Conservatives, two or three swings

:04:00. > :04:02.to Labour. That said, the fact we are beginning to get swings to

:04:03. > :04:06.Labour, including for example in the south of England, clearly does raise

:04:07. > :04:09.questions about the Conservatives' chance of getting the landslide the

:04:10. > :04:13.Prime Minister originally had in mind. If she was going to get a

:04:14. > :04:15.landslide, frankly virtually every constituency in the country should

:04:16. > :04:19.be swinging to the Conservatives. It is midnight. I have never known an

:04:20. > :04:26.election with so few results in at midnight but it is midnight.

:04:27. > :04:31.I will come to you in a moment with results from the newspapers. But as

:04:32. > :04:37.it is midnight, let's have the news. Counting has begun in

:04:38. > :04:40.the 2017 general election, amid widespread surprise

:04:41. > :04:42.at the results of an exit poll The poll indicates the Conservatives

:04:43. > :04:48.will be the largest party, but will lose 17 seats -

:04:49. > :04:50.leaving them with 314. It suggests Labour will get 266

:04:51. > :04:57.seats, a rise of 34. The early results have seen

:04:58. > :05:13.Labour retaining seats The exit poll is owed. It is watched

:05:14. > :05:18.closely by the politicians but it is still just a prediction. It has the

:05:19. > :05:23.Conservatives as the largest party. But assured of an overall majority.

:05:24. > :05:31.The poll suggests the Tories would have three and 14 seats, down 17 on

:05:32. > :05:37.three years ago. It puts Labour on 266, up 34. The SNP would get 34 and

:05:38. > :05:42.the Lib Dems 14. This is a projection, not a result. These exit

:05:43. > :05:47.polls have been wrong in the past. I think in 2015 they underestimated

:05:48. > :05:51.our vote. I think in a couple of elections before that they

:05:52. > :05:54.overestimated it. Theresa May promised on seven different

:05:55. > :05:58.occasions she wouldn't go for a snap election and she went for it. She

:05:59. > :06:03.went Fred on the basis of securing a mandate she already had. People saw

:06:04. > :06:07.through that. It is the real votes that count. There was a race to see

:06:08. > :06:14.which constituency would declare first. Labour have held at Newcastle

:06:15. > :06:19.Central, a safe seat for them, increasing the majority might more

:06:20. > :06:22.than 2000. Jeremy Corbyn arrived home in his north London

:06:23. > :06:27.constituency tonight. If the exit poll is correct, he will have

:06:28. > :06:32.confounded the expectations of even his own MPs. While Theresa May's

:06:33. > :06:38.gamble to win big in a snap election will have failed. But the night is

:06:39. > :06:40.young and the truth inside those ballot boxes is yet to be revealed.

:06:41. > :06:43.With the news of the exit poll the pound has been falling

:06:44. > :06:46.against other currencies, including the dollar and the euro.

:06:47. > :06:54.Let's get the latest reaction from Sharanjit Leyl in Singapore.

:06:55. > :07:01.Tell us more about what is going on? That is right. As you say, the most

:07:02. > :07:08.immediate reaction has been from the British pound. Sterling falling

:07:09. > :07:12.nearly 2% against the dollar. The exit poll suggested the Conservative

:07:13. > :07:17.Party could lose its overall majority. It has since scaled back

:07:18. > :07:23.those losses. It is down 1% against the major currencies. That is after

:07:24. > :07:27.swings in the exit poll have not been reflected. That has given the

:07:28. > :07:32.Conservative Party some hope the poll may not be as bad as expected.

:07:33. > :07:37.Investors also watching other developments awake from the UK

:07:38. > :07:41.elections. The testimony from former FBI chief James Comey.

:07:42. > :07:54.And the European Central Bank. Thank you. Now back to David.

:07:55. > :08:02.And here in our election studio we are still waiting for more results.

:08:03. > :08:09.We have had three so far. Five so far now, I think. Yes. Not very many

:08:10. > :08:13.at midnight. We last saw Jeremy Vine in the House of Commons. He has now

:08:14. > :08:20.moved to Downing Street. Thank you. I am in virtual Downing Street,

:08:21. > :08:29.which gives us chance to see the progress of the parties. Let's pave

:08:30. > :08:35.the path to the daughter Number 10. The Conservatives short of the

:08:36. > :08:39.finishing line and Labour some way back. We can do this are few more

:08:40. > :08:43.times as the night goes on. We can see of the Conservatives cross this

:08:44. > :08:50.line. At the moment the exit poll has them falling short. 326 seats

:08:51. > :08:54.needed for an overall majority. The Conservatives on 314. Focus on the

:08:55. > :09:00.seat at the end. These are the ones the exit polls have as 50-50. If you

:09:01. > :09:06.are John -- Johnny Mercer in Plymouth or Karl McCartney in

:09:07. > :09:11.Lincoln, don't jump off be so vain celebration. We can't be certain you

:09:12. > :09:15.are back in Parliament. All of these are predictions which is why they

:09:16. > :09:19.are coloured in dark blue. 314 is what the exit poll says. Short of

:09:20. > :09:26.the overall majority. Look at Labour. Come down Downing Street.

:09:27. > :09:31.They have made a substantial advance. More than 30 seats in the

:09:32. > :09:35.exit poll. We don't have the ones, the actual result we have seen in.

:09:36. > :09:39.We are still dealing very much with forecasting. You can see these are

:09:40. > :09:49.the ones for a Labour that are very, very nip and tuck. Very close in the

:09:50. > :09:54.exit poll. 50-50. Newport West is now pretty marginal under the exit

:09:55. > :09:57.poll. That has been Labour Party for a while. High Peak was a

:09:58. > :10:07.constituency Labour held in the Tony Blair years. Moreli is Ed Balls'

:10:08. > :10:09.seat. It may well be back in the red column. It is still exit poll

:10:10. > :10:16.territory. Here's the fascinating thing. If you go back to 2010 when

:10:17. > :10:20.the Conservatives fell short of an overall majority, they had 306

:10:21. > :10:26.seats. Their line of seats ended about here. If we go back to 2015,

:10:27. > :10:30.the last general election, despite the predictions they would may

:10:31. > :10:34.undershoot, actually they crossed the line and David Cameron in his

:10:35. > :10:41.second general election had three seats. If this is the result, it

:10:42. > :10:45.puts the midway between 2010 when they needed to being coalition, and

:10:46. > :10:48.2015 when they had an overall majority. And as has been said, it

:10:49. > :10:57.makes the calling of the election looked like a very bad idea indeed.

:10:58. > :11:01.Thank you. We will be watching the road to Downing Street from time to

:11:02. > :11:09.time. We have had resulted in. Sunderland West. A slightly mixed

:11:10. > :11:14.picture. This is a safe Labour seat. Sharon Hodgson sitting in a majority

:11:15. > :11:19.of more than 13,000. She has been returned. It is slightly lower. It

:11:20. > :11:24.is a swing this time around to the Conservatives. Labour on a 61% share

:11:25. > :11:31.of the vote. The Conservatives on 29%. The Conservatives have done

:11:32. > :11:37.better. They are up ten percentage points to Labour's six. Both of them

:11:38. > :11:45.benefiting from a drop in the Ukip vote. This swing similar to

:11:46. > :11:48.Newcastle Central. A swing of around 2% to the Conservatives. Nothing is

:11:49. > :11:56.becoming clearer of the direction of travel of either party.

:11:57. > :12:01.Emily Thornberry joins us. Shadow Foreign Secretary. Good evening. You

:12:02. > :12:05.made the call at the very beginning of this evening when the exit poll

:12:06. > :12:11.came out that Theresa May should resign. Why should she resign? Well,

:12:12. > :12:16.think about it. She called this election when she thought she was 20

:12:17. > :12:20.points ahead in the polls. She said she wanted a mandate for Brexit. She

:12:21. > :12:25.basically wanted to stamp out the opposition. She wanted to be able to

:12:26. > :12:30.have a blank cheque, a free hand to do whatever she wanted with the

:12:31. > :12:34.country in terms of Brexit negotiations, in terms of the NHS,

:12:35. > :12:39.and the country has said no. The country has looked to the Labour

:12:40. > :12:43.Party and we have put forward a positive alternative. The star of

:12:44. > :12:46.our show was our manifesto, which shows we have another vision for

:12:47. > :12:51.where we want to take the country. We have turned it around. We have

:12:52. > :12:56.fought a very positive campaign. If she wanted a mandate out of this

:12:57. > :13:00.election, she hasn't got it. So she has failed. You are nowhere near

:13:01. > :13:07.catching her. Your 50 seats behind of the exit poll is right. But I

:13:08. > :13:10.think... If I'm honest, obviously we are disappointed if we are not able

:13:11. > :13:14.to form a majority government because every time we go an

:13:15. > :13:20.election, that is what you hope to do. But think of all those who are

:13:21. > :13:25.saying 67 weeks ago that it was just a question of how big Theresa May's

:13:26. > :13:30.crown was going to be, how big her majority was going to be. For us to

:13:31. > :13:35.have come from such a long way back, supposedly, to now be in a position

:13:36. > :13:41.where ducks tonight like we could form the next government. That is an

:13:42. > :13:45.extraordinary performance on the part of the Labour Party. It shows

:13:46. > :13:51.what we can do when we unite. How would you form the next government?

:13:52. > :13:55.Well, we would put forward a Queen 's speech and a budget, our Labour

:13:56. > :13:59.MPs would vote for it and we would call on the other parties to vote

:14:00. > :14:05.for it as well. You think you would get enough support from the Liberal

:14:06. > :14:11.Democrats, some of the National parties in Wales, some MPs in

:14:12. > :14:18.Northern Ireland? Have you done the sums are you just speculating? It

:14:19. > :14:21.would be up to them to explain to their constituents how it was that

:14:22. > :14:25.when given the choice they let the Tories back in again. They have

:14:26. > :14:31.absolutely no vision for Britain, no plan at all. They can say they will

:14:32. > :14:34.spend more money on the national Health Service. They have been found

:14:35. > :14:38.out. They have no manifesto promise in terms of money. They can't say

:14:39. > :14:42.where were they would get the money from for the National Health

:14:43. > :14:48.Service. We put forward a costed manifesto because we meant it. Let

:14:49. > :14:51.me get this straight. At ten past 12 on this Friday morning you are

:14:52. > :14:57.saying that Jeremy Corbyn may go to Number 10, make his hands with the

:14:58. > :15:03.Queen, or whatever he agrees to do with the Queen, and form a

:15:04. > :15:08.government? Look, we have got an exit poll. We have had very few

:15:09. > :15:13.results. But the exit poll seems to indicate that no party will have an

:15:14. > :15:17.overall majority. So it is possible that we will form the next

:15:18. > :15:23.government and if we do, there is no deals. We will be clear about that.

:15:24. > :15:25.How would you avoid that being the coalition of chaos that the Tories

:15:26. > :15:32.said it would be if Theresa May was not re-elected with a majority? A

:15:33. > :15:36.coalition of chaos. There is no coalition, there are no deals.

:15:37. > :15:40.Either the Conservatives would be the minority government of this exit

:15:41. > :15:43.poll is right, Labour will be the minority government. We are not

:15:44. > :15:50.having a coalition. We are not doing any deals. We will put forward the

:15:51. > :15:54.alternative manifesto, our alternative manifesto for Britain.

:15:55. > :15:59.It has been popular with the public. We would call on MPs from other

:16:00. > :16:06.parties to vote Fred. So not a coalition of chaos, just chaos? Have

:16:07. > :16:10.you asked any Tory MPs given the situation they are in, where they

:16:11. > :16:18.may be heading for a coalition of chaos? No. They say they are to have

:16:19. > :16:22.a majority. Well, there they are. -- there we are. What was their

:16:23. > :16:27.majority going to be? It was going to be 100, 120, 150 seats. That

:16:28. > :16:35.clearly was wrong. Let's see what happens. Stay with us. Ken Clarke is

:16:36. > :16:38.joining us from Rushcliffe. The father of the House if he wins his

:16:39. > :16:44.seat back. What you make of this result and what do you think of what

:16:45. > :16:48.Emily Thornberry is saying, that they may look to the smaller parties

:16:49. > :16:54.to Cisse bought a Queens speech and form a government? David, I heard

:16:55. > :16:58.you say and our ago that he would be hung, drawn and quartered at your

:16:59. > :17:02.exit poll is wrong, and we will be hung, drawn and quartered if we make

:17:03. > :17:06.silly guesses now. It is quite entertaining to have these elections

:17:07. > :17:10.and referendums these days because we reach a state of total

:17:11. > :17:14.uncertainty. My guess is that the Conservatives look as if we will

:17:15. > :17:19.have a small overall majority. Your opinion poll is very complicated

:17:20. > :17:26.methodology. It may be wrong. I have been told that the Labour Party was

:17:27. > :17:31.still doing worse in the north and the North East, the big Brexit votes

:17:32. > :17:35.in the Rust Belt areas weren't doing them much good. The Labour Party is

:17:36. > :17:38.doing better in the national polls in London, I'm told. I have no

:17:39. > :17:43.first-hand experience of campaigning in either to see of that theory

:17:44. > :17:47.proves to be right. It might as the evening goes on. We are obviously

:17:48. > :17:54.going to have a very interesting parliament. I don't think there is

:17:55. > :17:56.any point in carrying on the election debate with Emily

:17:57. > :18:02.Thornberry, with great respect to Emily. I want -- we won't be able to

:18:03. > :18:06.judge where we are until at least four o'clock in the morning, perhaps

:18:07. > :18:11.sometime tomorrow. Your party leader went into this election on the

:18:12. > :18:14.grounds she didn't have blood needed certainty and stability. You are a

:18:15. > :18:22.wise enough old bird to be able to say whether you think certainty and

:18:23. > :18:25.stability will be the outcome? The worst possible outcome would be a

:18:26. > :18:29.hung parliament, from the National point of view. I think the worst

:18:30. > :18:33.outcome for the United Kingdom would be a weak government and a hung

:18:34. > :18:40.parliament. We just have to see what we get. If we have to continue with

:18:41. > :18:44.another parliament with a small majority, personally we will have to

:18:45. > :18:48.have some deeper debate than we had in the public debate during this

:18:49. > :18:54.election on a lot of issues, most particularly Brexit. We -- we are

:18:55. > :19:00.facing some appalling difficulties. This is a critical stage. Our are

:19:01. > :19:04.politics is changing, there are huge problems. We need a little more

:19:05. > :19:08.cross-party discussion, particularly on things like Brexit. A little less

:19:09. > :19:11.exchanging slogans and trying to score points off each other. We

:19:12. > :19:20.could get a parliament for five years. If we could get negotiations

:19:21. > :19:23.that keep leaving open in the first two or three, time for our politics

:19:24. > :19:29.to change a little, which I think the public would appreciate. That is

:19:30. > :19:35.simply my hope. We will see after the first excited comments exactly

:19:36. > :19:40.how the politicians respond when we get back to Westminster.

:19:41. > :19:53.We were a staunch Remainer and remained a Remainer right through.

:19:54. > :19:56.Do you think it it was Hubristic of the Prime Minister to call an

:19:57. > :20:04.election to endorse her view of Brexit? Well, we don't know in any

:20:05. > :20:08.details what Brexit policy we are to pursue. A lot of idiots are talking

:20:09. > :20:11.about hard Brexits and soft Brexits and most people haven't done the

:20:12. > :20:16.courtesy of explaining what they mean by either. I was amazed by

:20:17. > :20:21.everybody else when she suddenly called an election. There are two

:20:22. > :20:24.good reasons, I think for it. One was our small majority was proving

:20:25. > :20:27.very, very difficult and the Budget vote showed another four years of

:20:28. > :20:33.this could be chaotic, not to be able to carry your Budget is quite a

:20:34. > :20:36.serious crisis. So it was worthwhile trying to get a better majority and

:20:37. > :20:40.the other reason, which she gave several times was to have these

:20:41. > :20:47.Brexit negotiations, finishing in end of 2019, early 2020, and

:20:48. > :20:51.coinciding with the beginning of another election campaign, which

:20:52. > :20:56.would undoubtedly be full of Hessesterical nonsense if the

:20:57. > :20:59.negotiations were ending, it could be very difficult, so getting the

:21:00. > :21:04.key negotiations over and then having another couple of years

:21:05. > :21:07.before the general election, that's how I persuaded myself that they

:21:08. > :21:11.were two very good reasons for holding an election and the second

:21:12. > :21:16.one she used a lot herself. I don't think it makes a difference to the

:21:17. > :21:20.position of the Government to the Brexit negotiations, I hope in the

:21:21. > :21:23.new Parliament we will have slightly fuller deby the about what exactly

:21:24. > :21:26.the position is that the British Government, whichever Government it

:21:27. > :21:34.is, is going to adopt. Can Brexit be stopped? Well, I have come to the

:21:35. > :21:37.conclusion, no. I thought it was a parliamentary thing. I never liked

:21:38. > :21:39.the idea of holding a referendum, I hope we never hold any more

:21:40. > :21:45.referendums on anything again but when we got to Parliament, I stuck

:21:46. > :21:49.to my principles, I voted against invoking Article 50. The Government

:21:50. > :21:53.had a huge majority, despite the fact that the vast majority of

:21:54. > :21:59.ministers and MPs agreed with me and all agreed it wasn't in the natural

:22:00. > :22:04.interest to Leave but they promised they would be bound if I the

:22:05. > :22:10.referendum. And we are where we are, because I think we are going to

:22:11. > :22:14.leave, I don't think it is sensible to find the next five years of this

:22:15. > :22:17.Parliament, like the last five years, to continue to argue that we

:22:18. > :22:21.shouldn't be leaving. What matters enormously, we all agree in broad

:22:22. > :22:24.terms, we get the best deal for Britain. That needs to be considered

:22:25. > :22:27.seriously, I hope on a more cross-party basis. Both parties are

:22:28. > :22:32.hopelessly divided on Europe. They have been for 20 years. Thank you

:22:33. > :22:44.very much for joining us. We may hear from you later. One new result.

:22:45. > :23:07.Newcastle upon Tyne North. O Labour hold, Kath McKinle. The

:23:08. > :23:10.swing is very marginal. On the results overall there has been a

:23:11. > :23:15.swing in more of them to Labour. This is how the exit poll that you

:23:16. > :23:20.saw at the beginning of the night, compares the with results we have

:23:21. > :23:24.had in so far. This is a seat by seat comparison, so it takes into

:23:25. > :23:28.account the seven results we have had in. As you can see, the Ukip

:23:29. > :23:32.column is pretty much bang on there. We said down 14%, and the results

:23:33. > :23:37.showdown 13. What it looks as if, though, as if we might be starting

:23:38. > :23:41.to recalibrate in our future forecast, some of the Conservative

:23:42. > :23:48.vote which is much higher than the ones we have had in, than Pretorius

:23:49. > :23:52.dicted. Labour 15% but has come up 9%. You won't see anything in the

:23:53. > :23:56.SNP column because they don't stand in the seats. This is specific,

:23:57. > :24:00.localised to what we have had in so far but you can see different shapes

:24:01. > :24:06.emerging there to the ones we've H thank you very much. We have been

:24:07. > :24:10.joined by Andrew Marr. Don't speak, just joined, but just before...

:24:11. > :24:15.Anyway you are bursting. Amol has the newspaper headlines. They have

:24:16. > :24:20.been speculating, let's get that and then your take. We have first

:24:21. > :24:25.editions Andrew will know from his time editing a newspaper and when I

:24:26. > :24:30.was editing a newspaper, that these evenings can be a nightmare because

:24:31. > :24:35.you have to produce multiple editions. This is the Daily Mirror

:24:36. > :24:42.no, friend of May necessarily, it says - hanging by a they red. The

:24:43. > :24:46.Guardian - exit poll shock for May. Pretty negative for May. The Daily

:24:47. > :24:52.Mirror is getting a lot of publicity. Rest assured they are all

:24:53. > :24:58.negative. The Sunjic Hayes May-Hem and Daily Telegraph says - shock for

:24:59. > :25:04.May and polls indicate a hung Parliament. We have also Lord

:25:05. > :25:09.Ashdown, after his notoriety after his response to the exit poll, he

:25:10. > :25:14.says - if the exit polls are right, Britain is more polarised than ever

:25:15. > :25:19.in my lifetime. Really time now for the centre to get its act together.

:25:20. > :25:23.One of the themes emerging in the online conversation about this is

:25:24. > :25:26.this is about a divided country a country not just divided between

:25:27. > :25:30.Labour and the Tories but between the young and old and Leave and

:25:31. > :25:33.Remain, which is a theme we'll be back come back to. Nigel Farage has

:25:34. > :25:35.spoken, former Ukip leader, he said - whatever the true result, the

:25:36. > :25:39.Conservative Party needs a leader that believes in Brexit. Paddy

:25:40. > :25:45.Ashdown said he would eat his hat at the last election. He has mentioned

:25:46. > :25:50.that this time as far as we are aware. He has probably already eaten

:25:51. > :25:55.T He ate it last time. He has no hat left. Andrew Marr, your go, what do

:25:56. > :25:59.you read into this? Above all, with you just need a lot more data at

:26:00. > :26:02.this point. What appears to be happening, I was talking to a

:26:03. > :26:07.minister who said - every mile further north I g it gets better for

:26:08. > :26:12.the Tories. You are beginning to see that reflected in the polls. The

:26:13. > :26:15.difference between the exit poll and those actual results we have had,

:26:16. > :26:20.suggests those Tories who said I don't believe the exit poll may be

:26:21. > :26:24.right, they may do better but a very patchy picture, for two reasons -

:26:25. > :26:28.one, division over Brexit and what happens to u ki. How that vote

:26:29. > :26:31.collapses, there are some place whereas Ukip are not standing and

:26:32. > :26:35.some places where they have done a deal with the sitting Tory candidate

:26:36. > :26:39.and other place whereas they are standing and the other thing is a

:26:40. > :26:44.differential in turnout. We have seen the most extraordinary campaign

:26:45. > :26:48.join, particularly by the left Momentum, very funny, pointed, Me

:26:49. > :26:53.Americases, films and harangues to get young voters out and the offers

:26:54. > :26:58.by young voters to Jeremy Corbyn, have they come out in numbers we

:26:59. > :27:03.never dreamt possibly and the older end of the scale, seeing the decline

:27:04. > :27:06.of the triple-lock and Winter Fuel Payments issue and so-called

:27:07. > :27:12.dementia tax, have they turned away from the Tories in the ways they

:27:13. > :27:17.haven't before. That would suggest spotty results but it is looking

:27:18. > :27:21.terrible for Theresa May at the moment. Turning awane not voting for

:27:22. > :27:27.switching their vote? We don't know. We don't know but it may explain why

:27:28. > :27:32.the exit poll is so different. Let's for a moment look at a bit of

:27:33. > :27:35.history. If we assume for the argument that the exit poll is right

:27:36. > :27:38.and the Conservatives are short of an overall majority but they are the

:27:39. > :27:44.largest party, what happens? A fist full of salt in one hand a as I say

:27:45. > :27:48.that but it brings us back to 1974 the last time we had a genuine hung

:27:49. > :27:51.Parliament and that led after the February election to an October

:27:52. > :27:54.election in 1974. All the people watching this thinking - I love

:27:55. > :27:57.elections, I want more, I want more David Dimbleby, again and again,

:27:58. > :28:02.this maybe your years, a warning. But much more seriously... You can't

:28:03. > :28:05.get more serious than that, I tell you. Ken Clarke was saying Brexit

:28:06. > :28:10.can't be stopped the negotiations must go on. But remember, these are

:28:11. > :28:13.supposed to start properly in about ten days' time. What happens if

:28:14. > :28:17.there is no Prime Minister who commands a majority of the House of

:28:18. > :28:22.Commons, to have those negotiations with? There maybe no choice but to

:28:23. > :28:25.declay that and it maybe a very long time before we have a Prime Minister

:28:26. > :28:31.who has a Brexit plan and enough MPs to support him or her in that

:28:32. > :28:36.process. Severing up for grabs. In three or four hours' time we will

:28:37. > :28:39.know how close we are to that. And some more tips reaching us about

:28:40. > :28:44.potential results. Straws in the wind but good the straws in the

:28:45. > :28:48.wind. Labour are confident of taking Ipswich. Why does it matter not

:28:49. > :28:55.because it is a Labour gain from Tory seat, but it is held by Ben

:28:56. > :28:58.Gummer, and he was the minister responsible for putting together

:28:59. > :29:04.manifesto. If this transspire how much of a metaphor would that be for

:29:05. > :29:08.a bad night for the Conservatives and also Jane Ellison, it sounds

:29:09. > :29:17.like she is in deep trouble in bear the see in London. -- in battercy

:29:18. > :29:23.and Amber Rudd, the Hastings' seat. I understand the possibility of a

:29:24. > :29:27.recount. Nothing is official but potentially three Tory ministerial

:29:28. > :29:30.scalps including the manifesto co-ordinator and Labour sources

:29:31. > :29:35.telling me they are confident of taking seats in Scotland, at least

:29:36. > :29:39.four, potentially as many as six. Again, defying the expectations of

:29:40. > :29:44.what we all thought a few hours ago. What the parties themselves thought.

:29:45. > :29:47.If these polls are anything like accurate, there are very serious

:29:48. > :29:51.questions for all of our main political parties about how they got

:29:52. > :29:57.it so wrong, of course for the pundits but all of the Labour MPs,

:29:58. > :30:00.the vast majority of Labour MPs, the vast majority of Tory MPs, most

:30:01. > :30:05.Liberal Democrat MPs and most SNP sources were all broadly in the same

:30:06. > :30:09.place of expecting to the Tories would gain, Labour would fall back,

:30:10. > :30:13.the question was of how much, the SNP might have a bit of the shine

:30:14. > :30:16.coming off, but nothing too dramatic. But it maybe, again, if

:30:17. > :30:18.this transspires, that the public have despied the political

:30:19. > :30:32.establishment absolutely well and truly. We have another result. Is

:30:33. > :30:37.This is the result we have had. A Conservative hold, never in doubt. A

:30:38. > :30:42.Conservative hold for Philip who will Bonn. A very solid 58% share of

:30:43. > :30:47.the vote there. The change overnight shows Labour making gains of 11% to

:30:48. > :30:52.the Tories 6. There is no Ukip candidate this time round. They had

:30:53. > :30:55.16% share of the vote. So that might explain why both of these main

:30:56. > :30:59.parties are up. The swing this time round then has gone from the

:31:00. > :31:05.Conservatives to Labour of about 2.6%. So not in doubt but showing

:31:06. > :31:12.the direction of travel, certainly towards the Labour Party here.

:31:13. > :31:18.That's the Kettering one. It is really interesting unusual seat

:31:19. > :31:23.because Mr Hollobone had done a formal deal with Ukip. He did almost

:31:24. > :31:29.everything he can short of joying it. He will meet them, and he is in

:31:30. > :31:33.favour of banning the burqa and it is in favour of some of their

:31:34. > :31:37.policies and Ukip not standing, that shows you what happens to the right

:31:38. > :31:43.of the spectrum if Ukip doesn't stand, the Tories do well. You have

:31:44. > :31:49.another one, do you? Not at the moment. We are looking at some

:31:50. > :31:56.predictions. We might be able to show you some that are on a knife

:31:57. > :32:01.edge in a moment. Let's go around the country. Let's go to Aberdeen to

:32:02. > :32:04.Steven Dove. An update on Gordon, Alex Salmond's constituent

:32:05. > :32:08.circumstances the former First Minister and former SNP leader. It

:32:09. > :32:12.is interesting. I'm told the Conservatives are very happy with

:32:13. > :32:21.the early returns from the ballot papers but a previce yo to, that the

:32:22. > :32:26.Liberal Democrats are -- previso, the Liberal Democrats are seeing

:32:27. > :32:30.gains. A shock might be in the cards in Gordon. To put that into context

:32:31. > :32:33.the north-east of Scotland was a part of the country where the

:32:34. > :32:39.Conservatives were hoping to do well. They are confident of taking

:32:40. > :32:45.two other seats here in Aberdeen South and Aberdeenshire West Kin

:32:46. > :32:49.car dine. So as far as you can tell, the Conservatives think things are

:32:50. > :32:53.going their way, how many seats do you any in Scotland as a whole? The

:32:54. > :33:01.Conservatives were hoping maybe six or seven seats in Scotland, the

:33:02. > :33:07.north-east. Both of these seats I mentioned, Aberdeenshire South and

:33:08. > :33:10.beer Deanshire West to Kincardine, had Conservatives recently as 1997.

:33:11. > :33:16.So there are Conservative vote tlers but went to other parties in recent

:33:17. > :33:26.years but the Conservatives as I say confident. -- Aberdeenshire. Now

:33:27. > :33:32.maybe, Alex Salmond's seat of Gough earn. And we are in desh youyshire

:33:33. > :33:34.and the Conservatives appear to think they are sneaking up on

:33:35. > :33:45.Labour, is that right? This is one of the seats the

:33:46. > :33:49.Conservative Party have targeted. They are ahead of schedule at the

:33:50. > :33:59.moment here. This seat was won in 2015 by Jennifer Chapman. Not far

:34:00. > :34:06.behind was Peter Cuthbertson, the Conservative candidate. Not sure yet

:34:07. > :34:11.whether it is going the way of the Tories or not. It is a very

:34:12. > :34:17.interesting area. It is heavily made up of public sector jobs. By 27% of

:34:18. > :34:22.people here work in the public sector. The Labour manifesto plans

:34:23. > :34:25.to increase and get rid of the cap on pay rises for public sector

:34:26. > :34:30.workers. That may play into how people are voting. Being the

:34:31. > :34:33.north-east and overwhelmingly voting to leave the EU, you don't know

:34:34. > :34:41.which party that might have gone to. It is not far off now us finding out

:34:42. > :34:48.how the vote has gone. We can go to Boston and John Swinney. What is the

:34:49. > :34:51.story there? This -- this is where the Ukip leader is hoping to take

:34:52. > :34:58.the seat. I don't suppose he is going to. What is your view? The

:34:59. > :35:02.story here is we don't know. You don't know, we don't know. The

:35:03. > :35:06.prediction is most people are saying that Paul Nuttal will not win. The

:35:07. > :35:15.Conservatives will hold the seat. We will not know the result until about

:35:16. > :35:23.five o'clock. What we're looking at is how much, how well will Paul

:35:24. > :35:27.Nuttall do? Willie do well? -- will he. This is the seat in the country

:35:28. > :35:33.which voted for Brexit more than any the seat. He should have a good

:35:34. > :35:37.chance. Or Willie do embarrassingly badly? That is the question we are

:35:38. > :35:41.interested in. The magic of democracy is still happening. We

:35:42. > :35:48.won't know until a fair bit later in the evening, in the night.

:35:49. > :35:53.We will come back and find out later. I am by the Secretary of

:35:54. > :35:59.State for International Trade, Liam Fox. Good evening. You are back on

:36:00. > :36:06.television then? Yes, it is going to be an interesting and a long night

:36:07. > :36:11.for all of us. I didn't say that. You have been in hiding all this

:36:12. > :36:14.campaign. What happened to you? I have been doing a lot of regional

:36:15. > :36:18.television. I have to concur with what Andrew Marr was saying. There

:36:19. > :36:22.is a different picture emerging across the country. It is entirely

:36:23. > :36:25.possible we could still get an overall majority. What Andrew was

:36:26. > :36:31.saying that the difference in the vaults from North to South has

:36:32. > :36:34.certainly been a real feature. I was at a lot of seats in the north of

:36:35. > :36:37.England where the Labour vote was softer than in London. I think we

:36:38. > :36:43.will be seeing a lot of different results tonight. Maybe very well

:36:44. > :36:47.into tonight, maybe tomorrow before we have a clear picture. We are

:36:48. > :36:52.getting differential results across the country. I'm afraid we will have

:36:53. > :36:57.to be very patient. What would you count as a good result for Theresa

:36:58. > :37:02.May in light of what she asked for, which was strong, stable government,

:37:03. > :37:09.and a proper majority in the House of Commons? If we win the election,

:37:10. > :37:11.if we get an overall majority, that clearly is a win. We are seeing a

:37:12. > :37:16.number of different things happening. We are seeing a return to

:37:17. > :37:20.2-party politics. Looking at what I've seen so far of the total vote,

:37:21. > :37:26.we have seen an increase in Labour and Conservative votes, as the

:37:27. > :37:28.minority parties, low way. At that affect individual seats and how it

:37:29. > :37:34.will work in Scotland and Wales remains to be seen. I think the one

:37:35. > :37:37.thing we can be sure of is that a lot of the posters will have got the

:37:38. > :37:42.result is wrong. I think we will also not see a single national swing

:37:43. > :37:49.across the country in this election. It will be different in different

:37:50. > :37:52.regions. Coming back to the House of Commons, if you are either the

:37:53. > :37:57.largest party but don't have an overall majority but a small overall

:37:58. > :38:02.majority, given that one of the reasons people say she wanted this

:38:03. > :38:08.election was because people like you, who rather hold her feet to the

:38:09. > :38:14.fire on Brexit, I don't know how many trade deals you have done,

:38:15. > :38:20.would have an overdue power and influence. If that happens, if it is

:38:21. > :38:24.a small majority, do you owe absolute loyalty to any deals he

:38:25. > :38:28.wants to cut with anybody? Suppose she is in a position where she

:38:29. > :38:33.relies on others to remain at Number 10, would you be supportive of

:38:34. > :38:40.anything? Or do you have a red line. --? I don't know how many ifs there

:38:41. > :38:45.were in that sentence, far too many! We will give our are support to the

:38:46. > :38:49.Prime Minister. I think she was right to call the election, not just

:38:50. > :38:53.in terms of what you might get for a majority, and I think it was a brave

:38:54. > :38:59.decision, but we will have a parliament that runs until 2022 and

:39:00. > :39:02.will be able to get us extra time for those Brexit negotiations.

:39:03. > :39:08.Previously we would have been up against it to leave in 2019 and an

:39:09. > :39:12.election in the spring of 2020. To get that extra time could be

:39:13. > :39:17.extremely important. As Ken Clarke says, Brexit will happen. To give

:39:18. > :39:22.ourselves the best possible deal, we need that extra time. The decision

:39:23. > :39:26.was the right decision. We will have to wait and see. I hate to

:39:27. > :39:28.disappoint you that we're not going to give conditions for how the next

:39:29. > :39:33.Parliament will operate until we know what the next Parliament looks

:39:34. > :39:39.like. Laura Kuenssberg has a question. If Theresa May have --

:39:40. > :39:42.ends up having lost to gamble spectacularly and does not have an

:39:43. > :39:48.overall majority, can you guarantee she will not be forced to resign? It

:39:49. > :39:52.is very early in the evening and we will have to wait and see. I have

:39:53. > :39:57.set through these programmes before you were told we would be in a hung

:39:58. > :40:01.parliament. As the results have come in, we have seen the Conservatives

:40:02. > :40:04.outperforming some of the predictions. I would be pretty happy

:40:05. > :40:07.that the night we might do the same. And I will be spending the rest of

:40:08. > :40:11.the night watching the results and not making too many assumptions

:40:12. > :40:18.about what might or might not happen until we get a verdict from the

:40:19. > :40:23.voters. If she has so badly managed expectation, do you accept her

:40:24. > :40:26.authority will be diminished? We will see what happens in terms of

:40:27. > :40:32.the number of seats and the vote share. We will not make any

:40:33. > :40:35.assumptions. You can try as often as you like, but sentences that begin

:40:36. > :40:39.with if at this time of the night are likely to be met with a response

:40:40. > :40:45.that says we have to have strategic patients. We will have you back when

:40:46. > :40:51.we can say, now that we know! We have an important result.

:40:52. > :40:55.Nuneaton was quite a moment last time around. In 2015 it was the

:40:56. > :40:59.moment Ed Miliband knew the dream was over. When we started to see the

:41:00. > :41:04.emergence of the Conservative majority. That is why all eyes have

:41:05. > :41:09.been on it again. Labour target 54. It would've been a steep one for

:41:10. > :41:14.them to take. It is a conservative hold. Marcus Jones backing. This is

:41:15. > :41:18.what happened overnight. We are looking at the Ukip vote

:41:19. > :41:21.substantially down. It seems to have been divided between the

:41:22. > :41:25.Conservatives and Labour. The Tories have done slightly better here than

:41:26. > :41:33.in Kettering. It is the swing from Conservative to Labour of 0.2%. Very

:41:34. > :41:36.little movement. Overall, what are we understanding? Very mixed

:41:37. > :41:41.picture. Nuneaton, Kettering, similar parts of the world,

:41:42. > :41:47.different directions. But they are both conservative holds. Broxbourne

:41:48. > :41:52.Justin. This one, Charles Walker returned on a majority of nearly

:41:53. > :41:56.60,000. Ukip was in second place last time around. I can show you

:41:57. > :42:06.what that looks like in terms of what has happened. Down 16%. Labour

:42:07. > :42:17.up by ten. The Conservatives up by six. The swing is 2.2% from

:42:18. > :42:22.Conservative to Labour. All pretty small swings so far. The movement is

:42:23. > :42:26.hard to detect in terms of the direction of travel from one party

:42:27. > :42:32.to another. What do you read into this? I understand from Tory

:42:33. > :42:36.sources, Jane Ellison, Treasury Minister, has lost in London

:42:37. > :42:40.Battersea. No official confirmation but Tory sources saying she has

:42:41. > :42:46.lost. Labour sources confident of taking Northampton North. The kind

:42:47. > :42:50.of part of the country were marginals are extremely important.

:42:51. > :42:54.That is held by the deputy Leader of the House of Commons, Michael Ellis,

:42:55. > :42:58.another important Tory potentially losing his seat. Labour also

:42:59. > :43:02.confident of taking Thurrock in the South East, weren't Ukip had an

:43:03. > :43:09.extremely strong. You might have expected it to go the other way.

:43:10. > :43:13.North - south divide? Absolutely. Evidence of that emerging. That may

:43:14. > :43:22.be what we see. Generally -- generational divides, North, South,

:43:23. > :43:27.urban versus normal middle Britain. Very different divides. Completely

:43:28. > :43:34.new landscape. May be a new post-referendum map. -- maybe. We

:43:35. > :43:37.said it would throw everything up in the air. This is the first real

:43:38. > :43:41.chance we have to see where the pieces will land. It must be

:43:42. > :43:46.disconcerting for the politicians to see the pattern breaking like this.

:43:47. > :43:52.It is no longer binary. It has suddenly become this, that and the

:43:53. > :43:55.other. Indeed. It is a strange thing because what we have seen in the

:43:56. > :43:59.last few elections is a splintering of the two tribes system. It seems

:44:00. > :44:05.at this early stage that we are returning to the two tribes of their

:44:06. > :44:08.members are in different places. We shouldn't forget this is also

:44:09. > :44:13.affected by the campaign we have just had. I don't think anybody

:44:14. > :44:18.expected the Tory campaign to be so faltering, and the Prime Minister to

:44:19. > :44:27.look frankly so unhappy. Nobody expected Jeremy Corbyn to be such a

:44:28. > :44:30.cracking campaigner. Just on what Laura was saying about the

:44:31. > :44:35.generation of the void. Lily Allen has just said if Theresa May wins

:44:36. > :44:40.young Labour supporters need to rally around Corbyn protect him from

:44:41. > :44:44.another coup. It is one of the emerging ideas of this evening, that

:44:45. > :44:49.lots of Corbynista 's, people are belong to Momentum, the less they

:44:50. > :44:54.have pulled off this shock result, they need to get their due. Young

:44:55. > :44:59.people feel they have swallowed for him. They will want to be an active

:45:00. > :45:05.part, an act of lobby group, 20 pulled Jeremy Corbyn towards him.

:45:06. > :45:08.They feel he made a bold offer with the cancellation of tuition fees.

:45:09. > :45:12.One of the things they are talking about tonight is that they feel they

:45:13. > :45:15.may have pulled the rug from under Theresa May. We are doing this for

:45:16. > :45:27.the benefit of people who don't follow social media. Some people may

:45:28. > :45:35.actually not be on Twitter! This is on Twitter? Indeed. Good!

:45:36. > :45:39.We have a chance to take stock with two seasoned election watchers,

:45:40. > :45:53.Daniel Finkelstein and Andrew runs Lee. -- Andrew runs Lee. What does

:45:54. > :45:57.it suggest to you so far? One thing it suggests to me is that we might

:45:58. > :46:05.be seeing some revenge of the Remainers. Before the campaign we

:46:06. > :46:12.thought Remain voters may be a factor. But where are they? The Lib

:46:13. > :46:15.Dems are struggling. I live next door to the batters see seat where

:46:16. > :46:23.the Treasury Minister, Jane Ellison, is defending. We heard earlier that

:46:24. > :46:27.she has probably lost that seat. Quite a large majority. Battersea is

:46:28. > :46:32.within Wandsworth, where three out of four people voted to remain. I

:46:33. > :46:36.wonder if that is going on. I think that maybe part of a broader story,

:46:37. > :46:41.which explains why the Tories have done worse than everybody expected.

:46:42. > :46:45.This north, thing. The Tories were so fixated on going after Labour in

:46:46. > :46:49.the Midlands and the north, they rather neglected the south-east of

:46:50. > :46:53.England and London. They are also crucial part of the country when you

:46:54. > :46:58.are fighting an election. We heard the official line from Liam Fox.

:46:59. > :47:04.What will they really be thinking, the party, the leadership? Theresa

:47:05. > :47:07.May fought the election because she needed a bigger majority than the

:47:08. > :47:12.one she had. It looks like she will get a less big majority. If a

:47:13. > :47:16.majority at all. That putting question the plan she had. I think

:47:17. > :47:21.what Andrew has said and what Laura has said is correct. What we are

:47:22. > :47:25.seeing is a realignment. The Conservatives have gone after poorer

:47:26. > :47:29.voters, less well-educated people who voted Leave, Labour is moving

:47:30. > :47:34.upscale, getting more graduates, younger people who may have voted

:47:35. > :47:37.Remain. This changes the map. It is not entirely surprising. We have

:47:38. > :47:43.seen bigger swings to the Conservatives in the north and

:47:44. > :47:47.Labour doing well in the south. She ends up with a reduced majority are

:47:48. > :47:51.no majority, what does that mean for our position? The position of the

:47:52. > :47:59.entire party and her will be weak. If you get no majority at all, the

:48:00. > :48:03.leader can't stay. I can say it more bluntly than you. If it is a hung

:48:04. > :48:08.parliament, her authority is utterly shredded. She went for an early

:48:09. > :48:12.election which she didn't have to call and threw away the majority she

:48:13. > :48:16.already had. Whether that makes it, even if she could struggle on, the

:48:17. > :48:21.Conservatives can put together some sort of arrangement with the Ulster

:48:22. > :48:24.Unionists, obviously her authority is shredded. It doesn't make it an

:48:25. > :48:31.easy solution as to whether or not you remove her. Ken Clarke was right

:48:32. > :48:36.earlier, that the Conservatives would creep to some sort of majority

:48:37. > :48:41.by the time the night is over, that is a bit better. At least she has a

:48:42. > :48:46.majority. But it is not what Conservatives were expecting. I

:48:47. > :48:51.think she thought -- she fought such a presidential campaign. It was all

:48:52. > :48:54.about her. It will be difficult to blame her colleagues. You had to

:48:55. > :48:58.fight a presidential campaign if you wanted to win northern seats. It was

:48:59. > :49:02.a tip-off of the sort of campaign they were fighting. There was was a

:49:03. > :49:05.danger with their campaign you would enter up doing better in those seats

:49:06. > :49:11.but not winning them, and meanwhile losing some of your heartland seats.

:49:12. > :49:18.It was a mistake, the U-turn over social care? Obviously that was a

:49:19. > :49:21.big moment. If you are fighting a campaigner depending on you being

:49:22. > :49:26.seen as strong and stable and you do a U-turn, that will damage you. We

:49:27. > :49:31.have to look at deeper things. One of the things Jeremy Corbyn said

:49:32. > :49:35.they would excite young people with this move to the left, everyone

:49:36. > :49:38.disagreed with it. I was one of those people who thought it wouldn't

:49:39. > :49:43.work. We have to look much deeper for a sort of realignments that

:49:44. > :49:49.happen, not just choose social care. This is more profound.

:49:50. > :49:55.Many people were sceptical on turnout from the young and we

:49:56. > :49:59.haven't had many result but there is a suggestion that young voters have

:50:00. > :50:05.come out and probably favoured Labour largely, maybe the revenge of

:50:06. > :50:09.the young, they felt a bit treat cheated by the 2015 election result

:50:10. > :50:13.and more cheated in the referendum in 2016. That may well have

:50:14. > :50:16.motivated them to say - this time we'll vote. Look at the bigger

:50:17. > :50:20.narrative. Don't concentrate on one or two campaign points. Think about

:50:21. > :50:23.what Jeremy Corbyn may have achieved in increasing the seats and this

:50:24. > :50:27.realignment in the north and south. We will talk to you more throughout

:50:28. > :50:37.the night. Thank you both very much for now. David. Sean LLay is in

:50:38. > :50:40.Leeds and has news of the election there. One of the biggest counts in

:50:41. > :50:43.the country taking place. Eight constituencies. After Birmingham

:50:44. > :50:48.this is the bigger council area in England. They go well out into the

:50:49. > :50:52.countryside which is why this is a city which managed for 30-odd years

:50:53. > :50:56.to imyou will Tynously to elect both Denis Healey from the Labour Party

:50:57. > :51:02.and Sir Keith Joseph, Margaret Thatcher's guru from the

:51:03. > :51:09.Conservatives. At the moment it is a three-party city -- simultaneously.

:51:10. > :51:14.A seat held by Greg mull hull land by the skin of his teeth where most

:51:15. > :51:20.Liberal Democrat seats fell, that has seen a significant increase in

:51:21. > :51:26.the number of new registrations. Remember the majority was 2,500. If

:51:27. > :51:31.they are new, young voters inspired by Jeremy Corbyn that would be

:51:32. > :51:41.trouble for Greg Mulholland. And the mo. Rrley, where the Ed Balls vote

:51:42. > :51:47.came through last time. And he was ousted. A Labour source said tonight

:51:48. > :51:52.fsh if we have fallen short here it is because the Ukip vote. They are

:51:53. > :51:59.not standing giving the Tories a free run and an extra potential

:52:00. > :52:02.7,000 votes. Having said all of that, we have not seen the MP

:52:03. > :52:07.herself yet here, and they are not looking bouncy and chipper. I think

:52:08. > :52:10.it really could be at this stage one of the tight results that will make

:52:11. > :52:24.for a very interesting night. Thank you, Sean. Let's go to Huddersfield.

:52:25. > :52:32.Counting hasn't started properly. But we have four seats up to grab

:52:33. > :52:36.and in 2015 two of the Ukip seats was larger than the Conservative

:52:37. > :52:41.majority so the question is where will they go? I have to say one of

:52:42. > :52:44.the very interesting things is that there is no purple on the floor.

:52:45. > :52:48.Ukip didn't put up any candidates in these seats. So where will the votes

:52:49. > :52:51.go? I'm picking up a very mixed picture, if you take Dewsbury, for

:52:52. > :52:54.example a Labour seat, number 14 on the Tory target list. I spoke to the

:52:55. > :52:58.Conservative agent a little while ago. He said he absolutely does not

:52:59. > :53:02.recognise the exit poll. He said that's not what they have been fed

:53:03. > :53:06.on the doorstep and they are very bullish that they can win Dewsbury.

:53:07. > :53:10.But then there is Colne Valley, which at the moment is a Tory seat.

:53:11. > :53:14.I have been speaking to senior Labour figures here, they believe

:53:15. > :53:18.they have won Colne Valley which would be a big surprise. I spoke to

:53:19. > :53:22.the candidate herself, the Labour candidate and she said she watched

:53:23. > :53:26.young people queueing at the polling stations today, queueing up to vote

:53:27. > :53:31.and she said it will be the young round here who win it for her. Well

:53:32. > :53:35.thanks very much. This issue of the young is fascinating because it was

:53:36. > :53:40.what, all the way through one was picking up, I mean from social

:53:41. > :53:46.media, from young people that I knew who were enthused... From real life.

:53:47. > :53:49.Talking about an energy nobody noticed From real life, seeing

:53:50. > :53:52.Jeremy Corbyn rallies. He was going around the country attracting hugs

:53:53. > :53:57.numbers of young people to his events. One of the cure osities, was

:53:58. > :54:03.time after time he was holding the events in safe Labour seats. That

:54:04. > :54:07.led to head scratching, he wasn't doing the micro-target marriage na.s

:54:08. > :54:12.people thought he was wasting his time -- marginals. People thought

:54:13. > :54:18.leaders should only turn up to places where the votes were on a

:54:19. > :54:24.knife edge but it gave a sense of excitement around and on TV and

:54:25. > :54:27.there was a giant question mark over whether or not young people would

:54:28. > :54:30.turn up at the ballot box because history tells us there can be

:54:31. > :54:35.excitement generated. If we think about Nick Clegg in 2010 or the

:54:36. > :54:38.Scottish independence referendum, for example, huge enthusiasm for

:54:39. > :54:40.particular politics but it maybe this time it has transspired. We

:54:41. > :54:58.have a result from Darlington. I hereby declare and give notice the

:54:59. > :55:09.total number of votes given to each candidate was as follow: Kevin Brac,

:55:10. > :55:12.UK Independence Party, 1,180. Chapman, Jennifer, Jenny Chapman,

:55:13. > :55:46.Labour Party, 22,681. Anne-Marie Curry, Liberal Democrat,

:55:47. > :55:57.1,031. Peter Cuthbertson, the Conservative Party, 19,401.

:55:58. > :56:05.Matthew sned Kerr, 524. Therefor, I nearby give public notice that Jenny

:56:06. > :56:08.Chapman is elected Member of Parliament for the Darlington

:56:09. > :56:12.constituency. Bad for the Conservatives that one. Labour hold

:56:13. > :56:15.the seat. Darlington was a crucial seat for the Tories, trying to make

:56:16. > :56:20.in-roads into the north-east. If they had a hope of a chunky

:56:21. > :56:24.majority, Darlington was going to be the first sign of the night that

:56:25. > :56:28.they were on course to get there. Jenny Chapman holding on is crucial,

:56:29. > :56:30.therefore, and that will be a disappointment in Conservative

:56:31. > :56:35.Central Office. Two other snippets reaching me. Labour think they've

:56:36. > :56:39.gained Aberconwy in Wales and also Gower in Wales. Let's see the

:56:40. > :56:45.results in Darlington, the share of the vote. And the change since last

:56:46. > :56:48.time. And we'll have a word with John Curtice about what this says

:56:49. > :56:54.for the outcome of the election. There we are. Up 8% for Labour, up

:56:55. > :57:01.8% for the Conservatives. Down 10% for Ukip and a swing from Labour to

:57:02. > :57:05.Conservatives, just 0.2%. John. Well just to reemphasise what Laura has

:57:06. > :57:09.says. Darlington was meant to be the seat that told us that Theresa May

:57:10. > :57:14.was heading for a landslide and instead Labour have held it. In the

:57:15. > :57:19.exit poll we were expecting a very small swing to Labour of no more

:57:20. > :57:22.than 1% point. In the end it is slightly to the Conservatives. But

:57:23. > :57:25.there is one broader pattern. It looks like the exit poll has

:57:26. > :57:29.underestimated the Conservative performance in many although not all

:57:30. > :57:32.seats in the north-east of England. That probably is one area where in

:57:33. > :57:36.the end the Conservatives will do better than expected but I think

:57:37. > :57:40.everything we have heard so far, in terms of result and also in terms of

:57:41. > :57:44.the information that is coming out of counts, doesn't give any reason

:57:45. > :57:50.to believe that the exit polls are necessarily going to be wrong across

:57:51. > :57:54.England as a whole. What evidence do you have about Ukip voters. They

:57:55. > :57:58.have had the chance to vote Ukip in some constituencies. In others there

:57:59. > :58:03.is not candidate so anybody who voted Ukip two years ago has to go

:58:04. > :58:06.somewhere else. What is your view of what they are doing? It is early to

:58:07. > :58:10.talk clearly about that but one thing to say, even on the early

:58:11. > :58:14.results it looks as though the Conservative vote has advanced most

:58:15. > :58:19.in places that voted Leave, which of course tend to be places with a high

:58:20. > :58:23.Ukip vote and Labour are advancing most in places that voted Remain,

:58:24. > :58:28.which of course tend to be places with a low Ukip vote. I think we'll

:58:29. > :58:32.discover at the end of the night as we saw with local elections,

:58:33. > :58:36.Ukip-Leave places are the places where the Conservatives make most

:58:37. > :58:40.gross. Whether it is counterbalanced with Labour doing well in the more

:58:41. > :58:43.Remain areas of the country. As I said earlier this is probably going

:58:44. > :58:47.to be an election where Brexit has played a crucial role in shaping the

:58:48. > :58:50.character of the vote. We should go north of the border again, to

:58:51. > :58:58.Scotland to see what is happening in Scotland. And remember the SNP at

:58:59. > :59:01.the dissolution, 56 seats and they are under threat, it seems from the

:59:02. > :59:04.Liberal Democrats and from the Conservatives and from Labour, to

:59:05. > :59:09.some extent. Jeremy. Yes, we will do. We will look at the Scottish

:59:10. > :59:14.seats in a moment but first look at the whole map of the UK. It is worth

:59:15. > :59:19.us saying, a lot of conversation about a lot of seats but much is

:59:20. > :59:22.exit poll-based. Top To here you can see the actual results we have got.

:59:23. > :59:25.The spots of blue are the holds for the Conservatives in coatering and

:59:26. > :59:25.Swindon and Nuneaton, Broxbourne and so

:59:26. > :59:30.the Conservatives in coatering and Swindon and Nuneaton, Broxbourne and

:59:31. > :59:34.so on. -- Then you have the seats in the north-east, Newcastle and the

:59:35. > :59:38.north-west. But most of the map I'm standing on is grey. The actual

:59:39. > :59:42.results are not yet in. There are still a lot of exciting hours to

:59:43. > :59:46.come on the counts up and down the country but as David said, let's

:59:47. > :59:49.look at Scotland. We move the map on and focus on the result last time,

:59:50. > :59:54.an extraordinary result. When you think in a lot of elections the

:59:55. > :59:59.Scottish National Party were getting maybe six seats, seven seats,

:00:00. > :00:03.suddenly they get 56 out of 59. So they get all but three of the seats

:00:04. > :00:09.in Scotland and other main parties get one each. It is extraordinary.

:00:10. > :00:14.This is their battled ground. It is ordered like this, the most marginal

:00:15. > :00:21.one on the top right. Very tight for the SNP up there. Two years ago.

:00:22. > :00:25.Dunbartonshire East, Jo Swinton for the Liberal Democrats. Very tight.

:00:26. > :00:29.As we go down the board, the majorities of the seats get bigger

:00:30. > :00:33.and safer. So I will ask the board to input the exit poll and see what

:00:34. > :00:38.we are expecting to happen in Scotland. What you see first of all

:00:39. > :00:42.is that the fist twocould ups, 16 seats here, have been cut a swathe

:00:43. > :00:46.through by the Liberal Democrats and Labour and the Conservatives, all

:00:47. > :00:49.working against the SNP. So, the first seat the most marginal, we

:00:50. > :00:53.have under the exit poll, going to Conservatives. We then have, if the

:00:54. > :00:57.colours are difficult here just look at the party icons along the left.

:00:58. > :01:02.If they are white it means it is just a forecast. Dunbartonshire

:01:03. > :01:05.East, Liberal Democrats, as does Edinburgh West and Labour taking

:01:06. > :01:09.Renfrewshire East and so on down the line we G very good results here for

:01:10. > :01:12.the Liberal Democrats in Scotland. They are getting MPs back in the

:01:13. > :01:16.House of Commons through Scotland through the SNP's retreat here We go

:01:17. > :01:22.all the way down through the second column and get to Argyll and Bute

:01:23. > :01:26.and that is the first SNP hold in our exit poll. So up until that

:01:27. > :01:29.point, they've lost, for example, to the Liberal Democrats, Gordon, the

:01:30. > :01:32.seat of Alex Salmond, their former leader. They have also then,

:01:33. > :01:37.actually it doesn't stop there, as you go on, you see them losing

:01:38. > :01:41.Moray, Angus Robertson, the Leader of the House of Commons, for the

:01:42. > :01:46.SNP. He would be out under the exit poll. Perth and North Perthshire

:01:47. > :01:49.going Conservative and Glasgow Central, quite a big majority there,

:01:50. > :01:55.going Labour. Stirling going Conservative. And look down to the

:01:56. > :02:01.end of the graphic, you will see completing the set of 56 SNP seats

:02:02. > :02:04.last time, Angus, where the majority is over 10,000, maybe 11,000, going

:02:05. > :02:09.to the Conservatives. This is still just the exit poll. For now the map

:02:10. > :02:14.is coloured in, or it was coloured in all yellow. Now we've coloured it

:02:15. > :02:19.in according to the exit poll and you see how that result from two

:02:20. > :02:27.years ago looks extraordinary. As Kirsty Washing was saying it

:02:28. > :02:31.earlier. So we wait it see what happens. We don't have any real

:02:32. > :02:35.results but Scotland is changing, it seems, David. Thank you very much.

:02:36. > :02:37.Well now, we are going to Scotland and join Douglas Alexander and

:02:38. > :02:40.Well now, we are going to Scotland and join Douglas Alexander and

:02:41. > :02:43.Douglas, of course you were the election co-ordinator for a kind of

:02:44. > :02:48.Blairite view of the Labour Party, Ed Miliband be and before that with

:02:49. > :02:52.Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. What do you make of the success of Jeremy

:02:53. > :02:56.Corbyn? It is a new kind of Labour Party that is emerging, it seems? I

:02:57. > :03:01.think people, young people in particular are hard wired for hope

:03:02. > :03:04.and I can't honestly remember as hopeless a campaign from a

:03:05. > :03:11.Government, a Conservative Government that we've witnessed from

:03:12. > :03:14.Theresa May. So out of the border it seems to me the Conservatives are

:03:15. > :03:19.being punished for the campaign they've run and north of the border

:03:20. > :03:23.the SNP tide is flooding out. How far that tide falls we'll see in the

:03:24. > :03:27.course of the coming hours but there is no doubt that both the parties of

:03:28. > :03:31.Government. The Conservatives in England and the Scottish National

:03:32. > :03:34.Party, ooer here have been rejected when they were anticipating much,

:03:35. > :03:39.much stronger results. Do you think Ed Miliband was too cautious in the

:03:40. > :03:43.sort of Labour policy that he presented two years ago? I always

:03:44. > :03:47.think there is a whole range of factors that make up any election

:03:48. > :03:50.defeat or any election victory. Some people say that this manifesto is

:03:51. > :03:55.very similar to Ed Miliband's, obviously it is very different. Some

:03:56. > :03:58.people say Jeremy is very similar to Ed Miliband, some people say he is

:03:59. > :04:01.different. The truth is I'm more interested in what lies ahead for

:04:02. > :04:05.the Labour Party and it looks like we are making gains not just here in

:04:06. > :04:10.Scotland, against many people's expectations, but also right across

:04:11. > :04:14.England. Are you going to see your old seat, which Mhari Black took

:04:15. > :04:20.from you to the SNP, is that going back to Labour? My sense is, it is

:04:21. > :04:24.too close to call but it is a number of seats across central Scotland

:04:25. > :04:28.where people were writing us off but the implications are that Labour are

:04:29. > :04:32.very much back in the game and in every part of Scotland we are seeing

:04:33. > :04:35.that very high tide we saw for the SNP just two years ago falling

:04:36. > :04:37.backwards and it looks like a difficult night for a party that

:04:38. > :04:39.couldn't really decide, was this an election about Brexit or an election

:04:40. > :04:44.about a second independence referendum. It has done huge damage

:04:45. > :04:46.to those people arguing for a second independence referendum because

:04:47. > :04:51.politics, as we know is about momentum and here the SNP are

:04:52. > :04:52.falling backwards as surely as the Conservatives are not moved forward

:04:53. > :05:03.south of the border. Are you surprised at the Corbyn

:05:04. > :05:06.effect? You talk about idealism among the young, yesterday evening,

:05:07. > :05:09.I think it was, in London, he had crowds not of a thousand, but

:05:10. > :05:13.thousands we're told. There's a couple of points. I'd probably be

:05:14. > :05:17.the last person you'd need to convince not to believe opinion

:05:18. > :05:22.polls during election campaigns, given what I lived through a couple

:05:23. > :05:25.of years ago. In that sense, I was waiting to see what would happen.

:05:26. > :05:29.There is no doubt that Jeremy Corbyn has campaigned with spirit and with

:05:30. > :05:32.a sense of authenticity that was wholly lacking from the Conservative

:05:33. > :05:36.campaign, if you like, the contrast suited Labour. Jeremy arguing for a

:05:37. > :05:41.politics that he clearly believes in and on the other hand, Theresa May

:05:42. > :05:46.apparently unable to answer the most basic and straightforward questions

:05:47. > :05:50.when she was asked. In that sense, this particular contest has

:05:51. > :05:54.emphasised a fundamentally different vision for the country and a

:05:55. > :05:58.different way for doing politics. Of course, like in every election,

:05:59. > :06:03.there will be lessons to learn. Even at this point in the evening, we've

:06:04. > :06:07.had so few rupts, one thing we can say for sure is that Jeremy Corbyn

:06:08. > :06:14.is safe as leader of the Labour Party, so long as he wants to be.

:06:15. > :06:19.He's had a great campaign. We've had 15 results in. It's just after 1am.

:06:20. > :06:24.Time for us to have a bulletin of the news. Let's see the New

:06:25. > :06:28.Broadcasting House, the old Broadcasting House on the left. The

:06:29. > :06:35.new one curling round there on the right. It's still just showing our

:06:36. > :06:39.exit poll. We haven't adjusted that yet. We will start to show when we

:06:40. > :06:40.get more than 15 results in what's happened.

:06:41. > :06:52.Let's have the latest news. The first results have been declared

:06:53. > :06:59.in the general election. Remember has held the party's safe seats. But

:07:00. > :07:05.the Conservatives took more votes in all three constituencies than at the

:07:06. > :07:10.2015 election. An exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky has predict the the

:07:11. > :07:13.Tories will be the biggest party but won't have a majority. It says

:07:14. > :07:16.they'll have lost 17 seats but Labour will have made gains. The

:07:17. > :07:26.poll predicts losses for the Scottish National Party. The

:07:27. > :07:30.night began with a big projection, the exit poll. Studied closely by

:07:31. > :07:34.the politicians. But remember, it's still just a forecast. It has the

:07:35. > :07:39.Conservatives as the largest party. But short of an overall majority

:07:40. > :07:45.much the poll suggests the Tories would have 314 seats, down 17 on two

:07:46. > :07:50.years ago. It puts Labour on 266 seats, up 34. The SNP would get 34

:07:51. > :07:54.seats and the Lib Dems 14. This is a projection. I think you made that

:07:55. > :08:00.clear. It's not a result. These exit polls have been wrong in the past. I

:08:01. > :08:04.think in 2015 they underestimated our vote. In a couple of elections

:08:05. > :08:11.before that, they overestimated our vote. Theresa May promised us on

:08:12. > :08:14.seven different occasion that's she wouldn't go for a snap election. She

:08:15. > :08:17.went for it to scour a mandate that she already had. People saw through

:08:18. > :08:20.that. It's the real votes that count, though. There's the

:08:21. > :08:27.traditional race to see which constituency could declare first.

:08:28. > :08:30.Labour have just held Darlington. There was a marginal swing to the

:08:31. > :08:33.Tories, but nowhere near the kind of success they would have needed in

:08:34. > :08:39.the north of England for any kind of land slide. Two other seats won by

:08:40. > :08:44.Labour in north-east England show the Tories have done better than the

:08:45. > :08:47.exit poll might have suggested. The festival of democracy has been on

:08:48. > :08:51.full show. Watch out for some upsets through the night. At least one

:08:52. > :08:55.minister's seat could be in question and Ukip's vote appears to be

:08:56. > :08:59.collapsing in places. Good evening Mr Corbyn, how are you feeling?

:09:00. > :09:03.Jeremy Corbyn arrived home in his North London constituency tonight.

:09:04. > :09:07.If the exit poll is correct, a big if, he will have confounded the

:09:08. > :09:11.expectations of even his own MPs. While Theresa May's gamble to win

:09:12. > :09:17.big in a snap election will have failed. But the night is young and

:09:18. > :09:20.the truth inside those ballot box ises yet to be revealed. -- boxes is

:09:21. > :09:24.yet to be revealed. With the news of the exit poll

:09:25. > :09:27.the pound has been falling against other currencies,

:09:28. > :09:29.including the dollar and the euro. Let's get the latest reaction

:09:30. > :09:32.from Sharanjit Leyl in Singapore. As you say, the most immediate

:09:33. > :09:39.reaction has been from the Sterling falling nearly

:09:40. > :09:41.2% against the dollar. The exit poll suggested

:09:42. > :09:44.the Conservative Party could lose its

:09:45. > :09:47.overall majority. It has since scaled

:09:48. > :09:58.back those losses. The Conservatives may be doing

:09:59. > :10:03.slightly better than that exit poll suggested. The pound down 1. 5%

:10:04. > :10:07.against the US dollar and major currencies. Analysts have been

:10:08. > :10:11.saying that it's likely the pound will continue falling as Asian

:10:12. > :10:13.markets open. A hung Parliament is the worst case scenario for the

:10:14. > :10:17.pound given the political uncertainty it brings. It could

:10:18. > :10:20.complicate Brexit talks further. Something markets and investors

:10:21. > :10:24.don't like. Asian markets have just opened in the last few minutes and

:10:25. > :10:29.they are higher at the moment. Only just.

:10:30. > :10:31.The former director of the FBI, James Comey, has told a Senate

:10:32. > :10:34.committee he felt he'd been ordered by Donald Trump to drop

:10:35. > :10:38.an inquiry into links between the president's former

:10:39. > :10:52.National Security Adviser and Russia.

:10:53. > :11:05.Now back to David. It's interesting how this election

:11:06. > :11:10.is proven very exciting. We've had 15 declarations and no change of

:11:11. > :11:15.control of any of the 15 seats. Nevertheless, what's happening under

:11:16. > :11:20.that is proving quite riveting in terms of Labour's advance, the

:11:21. > :11:26.Conservatives retreat in some places, advance in the others. Let's

:11:27. > :11:30.go to Swindon south. ... The result of the poll for the election of the

:11:31. > :11:35.member of Parliament for south Swinton. I, being the acting

:11:36. > :11:40.returning officer, give notice that the number of votes recorded for

:11:41. > :11:55.each candidate at this election is as follows: The Conservative Party

:11:56. > :11:56.candidate, 24,809. Labour and Co-operative party, 22,345...

:11:57. > :12:24.CHEERING ... United Kingdom Independence

:12:25. > :12:29.Party 1,291. The Green Party, 747. And Liberal Democrats, 2,079. There

:12:30. > :12:36.were 87 bat ol papers -- ballot papers rejected. I declare Robert

:12:37. > :12:42.Buckland is duly elected the member of Parliament for south Swindon.

:12:43. > :12:49.So a close result in Swindon south. The Conservatives hold onto the

:12:50. > :12:55.seat. 24,80. We were expecting this one to be close. We were. This is

:12:56. > :13:00.the kind of thing that will make CCHQ nervous. First Welsh result is

:13:01. > :13:00.coming in from Wrexham. Let's go there.

:13:01. > :13:11.... Welsh Conservative Party, 15,321.

:13:12. > :13:33.APPLAUSE Plaid Cymru 1,753.

:13:34. > :13:54.APPLAUSE Welsh Labour, 17,153.

:13:55. > :14:34.APPLAUSE Well, there we are. We have the

:14:35. > :14:37.result there. Labour hold Wrexham. The Conservatives were hoping to

:14:38. > :14:39.take Wrexham. It's in part of the country, Theresa May went there

:14:40. > :14:43.several times during the campaign. She spent a lot of time in Wales.

:14:44. > :14:47.They were hopeful of taking quite a number of seats. Labour in contrast

:14:48. > :14:51.is hopeful not just of holding seats in Wales, but actually of adding

:14:52. > :14:56.seats in Wales. I've been told in the last few minutes, they expect to

:14:57. > :15:01.take Cardiff north. Labour sources telling me they have won Rutherglen

:15:02. > :15:05.in Scotland and confident of gaining East Lothian. Against the party's

:15:06. > :15:09.private expectation, we are seeing in Wales and Scotland, Labour taking

:15:10. > :15:14.rather than just holding their own or even falling back. Interesting

:15:15. > :15:19.that there were 5,000 Ukip votes last time round, two years ago cast

:15:20. > :15:23.in Wrexham. No Ukip candidate this time. Where did the votes go? It

:15:24. > :15:27.comes down to what John and Peter were discussing before, where does

:15:28. > :15:31.the Ukip vote split? The expectation at the beginning of this campaign,

:15:32. > :15:37.what the local election results suggested was that Ukip vote would

:15:38. > :15:40.go primarily and potentially dramatically to the Tories. From the

:15:41. > :15:45.actual results we're seeing tonight, that is not happening. It may well

:15:46. > :15:51.be that the Tories made a strategic mistake by assuming that Ukip voters

:15:52. > :15:55.were basically Tories in disguise who had been more grumpy than

:15:56. > :15:59.everybody else about Europe over the years. But many Ukip voters were

:16:00. > :16:06.former Labour voters. That may part of the problem here. Llanelli. This

:16:07. > :16:11.is the Shadow Defence Secretary's seat. It's been held by Labour. This

:16:12. > :16:20.was a Plaid Cymru target. You can see how well they've done here. They

:16:21. > :16:25.started with a majority of 7,095. They have returned on a majority of

:16:26. > :16:32.12,000. Labour up 12%, the Conservatives

:16:33. > :16:39.also making gains, we assume at the expense of Ukip and Plaid Cymru down

:16:40. > :16:43.here. The swing towards Labour. It's not huge. Conservatives would have

:16:44. > :16:47.needed a swing of what, 9% to take this seat. Ittess stab lishes Labour

:16:48. > :16:54.quite firmly again in this seat in Wales. How important is Wales going

:16:55. > :16:58.to be, John on these results? We had limited number of sampling points

:16:59. > :17:01.from the exit polls in Wales. Such as we had, suggested that maybe the

:17:02. > :17:06.Conservatives would do rather better in Wales than in some other parts of

:17:07. > :17:10.England. First two results don't corroborate that expectation. We

:17:11. > :17:14.have virtually no swing in Wrexham, a small swing to Labour in Llanelli.

:17:15. > :17:18.It looks as though the Conservatives aren't going to get particular

:17:19. > :17:23.solace in the principality in the way we might have anticipated. We've

:17:24. > :17:27.got another one come in. An extraordinary one. Laura was saying

:17:28. > :17:30.earlier, she heard that the Labour Party had taken seats from the SNP?

:17:31. > :17:38.Scotland. I don't know if this is a shoring up of that Unionist vote

:17:39. > :17:44.that we were talking about. You can see how tight that is, 38% to 37%.

:17:45. > :17:47.It wasn't coming up in a list of things we could easily predict

:17:48. > :17:53.because it was on a knife edge. You can see now the drop very clearly of

:17:54. > :17:57.16% for the SNP, Conservatives making gains here at the expense of

:17:58. > :18:01.the SNP. But that puts Labour, who is in second place, in poll position

:18:02. > :18:07.there to take it. They've had a slight rise. That swing then towards

:18:08. > :18:11.Labour of 8. 9%. That's huge. Not huge when we compare it to some of

:18:12. > :18:15.those extraordinary swings we saw in Scotland towards the SNP two years

:18:16. > :18:18.ago. But those were unprecedented. This is something that Labour will

:18:19. > :18:23.be getting the bunting out for I would have thought. On extraordinary

:18:24. > :18:29.result in Scotland. Quick comment on that one? This is the first evidence

:18:30. > :18:33.that the exit polls expectation that the SNP are going to suffer quite

:18:34. > :18:36.substantial losses north of the border looks as though it's right.

:18:37. > :18:39.At the beginning of the night, this was something about which we were

:18:40. > :18:42.least certain. Here's a piece of hard evidence that the SNP are

:18:43. > :18:50.losing ground quite substantially north of the border. Let's' join

:18:51. > :18:59.Michelle with two guests. With me are Hamsa Housef of the SNP

:19:00. > :19:03.and Peter Hain who served under Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. Let's

:19:04. > :19:06.talk about the picture painted by the exit poll in Scotland and we've

:19:07. > :19:10.had the first Scottish results in. It's not looking like a good night

:19:11. > :19:14.for the SNP. Let's put this in some context. I have to start with the

:19:15. > :19:17.caveats all your guests have in terms of the exit poll and whether

:19:18. > :19:21.it's correct or not. Early days and the voting is still very much going

:19:22. > :19:24.on. What I would say, is to put it into context, which has been

:19:25. > :19:27.missing, is that if the exit poll is correct, I think that's a big if, I

:19:28. > :19:33.have to say from hearing results on the ground. But if it is correct, 34

:19:34. > :19:36.seats would still mean that the SNP wins the election, wins the majority

:19:37. > :19:39.of seats and that's after being ten years in Government. I don't think

:19:40. > :19:44.anybody expected the SNP to reach that high water mark. It's only two

:19:45. > :19:48.years since the 2015 election and all those seats thaw took. -- that

:19:49. > :19:53.you took. What is your own party data suggesting about how many you

:19:54. > :19:57.are likely to lose? Exceptional result in 2015, a once in a century

:19:58. > :20:00.result, 95% of the seats coming towards the SNP. I don't think

:20:01. > :20:04.anybody expected that. It's happened again, I think, there's going to be

:20:05. > :20:09.a difficult night for some of our colleagues. Why? It's sad when you

:20:10. > :20:13.lose colleagues. There are a number of factors. It's too tight to call

:20:14. > :20:19.in a number of races here. It seems very clear that where there is,

:20:20. > :20:24.wherein previous elections the anti-independence vote has split

:20:25. > :20:26.between three parties, it seems perhaps it's co-alessing around the

:20:27. > :20:31.candidates most likely to defeat the SNP. It is early days. I'm not quite

:20:32. > :20:35.convinced that 34 is as low as we'll' go. I think we'll go higher

:20:36. > :20:39.than that. You're a former Welsh secretary and we've had the two

:20:40. > :20:40.results in from Wales seats that the Conservatives were really hoping to

:20:41. > :20:50.get. Yes, Theresa May put enormous effort

:20:51. > :20:53.into seats like Wrexham. We haven't heard Bridgend yet but we went

:20:54. > :20:57.there. We'll hold it well and we'll have a good night in Wales. I hear

:20:58. > :21:05.we are taking Gower back from the Conservatives, I hear also we are

:21:06. > :21:10.going to take the Vale of Clwyd with its excellent former Labour MP back.

:21:11. > :21:15.Welsh Labour is doing very well. Overall, I think this is a positive

:21:16. > :21:20.result for Jeremy Corbyn. I didn't support him for the leadership but

:21:21. > :21:27.he's harnessed an enormous protest movement about what is going on in

:21:28. > :21:33.this country. Is it that he's harnessed the youth vote? The youth

:21:34. > :21:37.vote, yes, but also the student debt, the fact that the economy is

:21:38. > :21:41.more and more austerity when it's totally unnecessary. We are a richer

:21:42. > :21:44.society than we've ever been in our history and can't provide houses for

:21:45. > :21:48.people and secure jobs. I think there's a popular revolt against

:21:49. > :21:53.that and I think it's part of a wider that he's able to harness. I

:21:54. > :21:58.don't think people saw him as a Prime Minister but they did see him

:21:59. > :22:01.as somebody who is speaking for their values against against a

:22:02. > :22:07.political class that have not been listening to them. Hamza, when Emily

:22:08. > :22:10.Thornberry spoke earlier, he said clearly Labour is now going to look

:22:11. > :22:16.to form a Government and that it will be looking to other parties for

:22:17. > :22:20.support of one kind or another because otherwise they would be

:22:21. > :22:24.letting the Tories back in? The First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has

:22:25. > :22:28.said we'd talk to Labour in terms of a progressive alliance along with

:22:29. > :22:35.Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. It wouldn't be a formal coalition. We'd

:22:36. > :22:39.look at it on an issue by issue on whether we could form a minority

:22:40. > :22:45.Government, for example, because we'd like to keep Labour out. I'm

:22:46. > :22:48.not taking away from Jeremy Corbyn's campaigning skills or otherwise, but

:22:49. > :22:51.we have to accept that Theresa May's run probably the worst campaign any

:22:52. > :22:54.of us have seen from a Prime Minister in modern British political

:22:55. > :22:59.history. You feel a reaction against that on the ground. People didn't

:23:00. > :23:02.like the idea of an arrogant evasive Tory Prime Minister wanting a

:23:03. > :23:07.landslide. I think there was a kick back against that. The issue for

:23:08. > :23:11.Labour going forward is, are we yet seen as a party of power? Do we have

:23:12. > :23:17.a leader who could be seen stepping into Number Ten and, do we have a

:23:18. > :23:22.party that is trusted by those on the centre ground. You don't sound

:23:23. > :23:26.sure? In Nuneaton for example, that's the sort of seat we need to

:23:27. > :23:30.take to be in Government. Having said that, Jeremy Corbyn deserves a

:23:31. > :23:34.huge amount of credit for harnessing this great surge of young people and

:23:35. > :23:38.not just of young people but a lot of people who haven't voted Labour

:23:39. > :23:44.out of much enthusiasm but have been voting against the Tories. Now

:23:45. > :23:48.people are saying, actually, we like his policies, we may not see him as

:23:49. > :23:56.a Prime Minister but like his policies. Just to add to that, I

:23:57. > :24:00.wouldn't take away from it, many things are being implemented north

:24:01. > :24:03.of the border such as abolishing tuition fees. There was the idea

:24:04. > :24:07.that you had to be centre or centre right to win an election. Clearly

:24:08. > :24:10.you can present a manifesto on the left as we have done in Scotland for

:24:11. > :24:13.over ten years and be successful but it sounds like people in England in

:24:14. > :24:23.the political class are waking up to that. Do you think the prospect of a

:24:24. > :24:28.second referendum riled a lot of people? The party that wins the

:24:29. > :24:32.election generally gets the mandate so we'd have the mandate of course,

:24:33. > :24:36.not to ensure a hard Brexit isn't imposed upon Scotland but that no UK

:24:37. > :24:42.Government would block the second referendum. Sorry to stop you,

:24:43. > :24:46.but... It's up for grabs in terms of its battle in Parliament. It will be

:24:47. > :24:53.very difficult for Theresa May to get a hard right Brexit she was

:24:54. > :24:57.wanting. Thank you. David? We said earlier on Amber Rudd the

:24:58. > :25:01.Home Secretary seemed to be in difficulty in Hastings. This is what

:25:02. > :25:05.she said. It's just her words. She arrived at her count a moment ago.

:25:06. > :25:09.REPORTER: How do you think it's going? I'm not going to engage much

:25:10. > :25:14.until we are clearer where it is at the moment. I'm quietly waiting and

:25:15. > :25:18.keeping an eye on everybody and everything. How confident are you?

:25:19. > :25:24.I'm just hopeful but not complacent. OK. Thank you. That doesn't get you

:25:25. > :25:28.very far. But anyway... Her words don't but the look on her face I

:25:29. > :25:31.think rather did. They're very worried about it even though we

:25:32. > :25:37.don't have the final result. You have news on other seats? I do. Iain

:25:38. > :25:41.Murray, the Labour Party's only Scottish MP for Edinburgh South

:25:42. > :25:45.apparently achieved a huge increase in his majority to well over 10,000.

:25:46. > :25:49.Even better news for Labour from that, I understand that they've

:25:50. > :25:53.taken Pudsey in Yorkshire from the Tory MP Stuart Andrew. I understand

:25:54. > :25:58.they are also expecting to beat Anna Soubry, the former minister who was

:25:59. > :26:03.a very prominent Remainor. She's held her seat. The biggest scalp so

:26:04. > :26:07.far that Labour are ready to say they believe they've taken,

:26:08. > :26:11.according to sources, is beating Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam. We

:26:12. > :26:15.touched on that briefly. It appears the Labour Party's effort there has

:26:16. > :26:19.won out. Perhaps the Sheffield Hallam students are still around

:26:20. > :26:25.after all. You said Anna Soubry has lost? Sources tell me that Labour

:26:26. > :26:29.has taken her seat, not officially confirmed but Labour believes they

:26:30. > :26:35.have taken it. One of the other interesting constituencies was

:26:36. > :26:47.Richmond Park in Surrey on the Thames where there Goldsmith who

:26:48. > :26:51.resigned over the third runway. Oh, we have a result coming in now.

:26:52. > :26:53.Samira, stay with us for a moment and let's hear this result from

:26:54. > :27:10.Tooting. Back with you in a second. Good evening. The declaration of the

:27:11. > :27:15.result of the poll for the Parliamentary election in the London

:27:16. > :27:21.borough of Wandsworth Tooting constituency held on the 8th June,

:27:22. > :27:27.2017. I, James Madden being the returning officer for the Tooting

:27:28. > :27:33.constituency hereby give notice the of the total number of votes given

:27:34. > :27:51.here is as follows: The Labour Party, 34,...

:27:52. > :28:08.CHEERING AND APPLAUSE. 34,694. Ukip. 339.

:28:09. > :28:18.Liberal Democrats, 3,057. APPLAUSE.

:28:19. > :28:35.The Green party, 845. The Conservative Party candidate,

:28:36. > :28:39.19,236. So Labour holds it with a big increase in their majority. The

:28:40. > :28:45.Conservative vote well down. This is the seat that Sadiq Khan used to sit

:28:46. > :28:58.in and he became the Mayor of London. Rosena Allin-Khan took the

:28:59. > :29:01.seat. A majority. Up 12,000 that majority. Very interesting. This is

:29:02. > :29:04.exactly the kind of seat that just a fortnight or three weeks ago the

:29:05. > :29:08.Labour Party was extremely worried about. We were there on a visit

:29:09. > :29:13.relatively earlier on in the campaign, it's an area that's been

:29:14. > :29:18.changing dem graphically. On paper it looked like it was heading

:29:19. > :29:23.towards the Conservatives. The old gentrification? Indeed, someone well

:29:24. > :29:30.regarded as a young generation of Labour MPs coming up. A thumping MP

:29:31. > :29:34.for her. The London effect. The division we have been talking, the

:29:35. > :29:38.north going a bit more Tory and the south going a bit Labour. Important

:29:39. > :29:41.seats in the south that Labour hasn't been thinking about hard for

:29:42. > :29:47.a long time and they are picking up one after another now. Let's hear

:29:48. > :29:50.from Samira. Sorry I didn't hear from you before, in Richmond Park.

:29:51. > :29:54.Zac Goldsmith is trying to take the seat back from the Liberal Democrats

:29:55. > :29:59.who took it at the by-election that he forced when he was against

:30:00. > :30:05.Heathrow. What is happening? Well, it's really interesting. Turnout is

:30:06. > :30:11.a big, big factor. So Richmond Park, in the by-election was an amazing

:30:12. > :30:18.win for the Liberal Democrats. Day took a post-EU referendum rebellion.

:30:19. > :30:22.The turnout then was 53%. They say 76% now. It's very early. The

:30:23. > :30:25.indications we get from talking to people is I think Zac Goldsmith is

:30:26. > :30:30.thinking he could win this seat back. The other seat being counted

:30:31. > :30:33.here at Twickenham Stadium is of course Twickenham, which is the

:30:34. > :30:38.Vince Cable seat that he lost in a big shock in 2015. The turnout's

:30:39. > :30:42.gone up a little here too to just under 80% and we really pick up a

:30:43. > :30:45.strong sense that they are quietly confident that Vince Cable could win

:30:46. > :30:49.this back, what Liberal Democrats seem to be hearing on the street, it

:30:50. > :30:54.was a protest element vote in 2015, an element of some staying away,

:30:55. > :30:57.people are turning out to vote now because they think it matters

:30:58. > :31:02.although Brexit may not be the issue that the Lib Dems thought it was six

:31:03. > :31:06.months ago, it's more of a general picture about anti-hard Brexit and

:31:07. > :31:11.protect the NHS. Two seats could be changing. Vince Cable could be on

:31:12. > :31:14.course to win back Twickenham and Zac Goldsmith now a Conservative

:31:15. > :31:17.today having stood as an independent in that by-election that he called

:31:18. > :31:26.might be able to take back the seat from the Lib Dems who claimed it as

:31:27. > :31:40.such a triumph only six months ago. Bermondsey and old Southwark, Geeta

:31:41. > :31:46.is there. What is the news there? Well, it does look as though Labour

:31:47. > :31:50.have held this seat, possibly with an increased majority, some reports

:31:51. > :31:54.saying even that the majority might have doubled for Neil Coyle of

:31:55. > :31:58.Labour. Now, he has been a prominent critic of Jeremy Corbyn and it will

:31:59. > :32:02.be very interesting to see what he and others in the moderate part of

:32:03. > :32:06.the Labour Party now do. If there was to be, for example, a minority

:32:07. > :32:10.Labour Government, of course it's very early days still, but Simon

:32:11. > :32:15.Hughes had fought this seat very hard. His team accepting

:32:16. > :32:18.unofficially but they think it's possibly not gone their way tonight.

:32:19. > :32:24.They think it's part of a national swing, part of a bigger youth

:32:25. > :32:29.turnout, they say there's been a 25% turn in this seat of people, people

:32:30. > :32:33.who perhaps don't recognise or remember Simon Hughes's record, he

:32:34. > :32:36.was here for 32 years as an MP until 2015. I was here two years ago,

:32:37. > :32:42.there was a very big change, a very big shock, of course, when he lost

:32:43. > :32:45.that seat. Neil Coyle defending a 4,500 majority and it looks as

:32:46. > :32:49.though Labour has been successful. They say they have had about a

:32:50. > :32:52.thousand volunteers on the streets and Neil Coyle's just in fact

:32:53. > :32:57.entered the hall here. I should just say also that in this hall just a

:32:58. > :33:03.few hours ago, the book of condolences was placed. Theresa May

:33:04. > :33:09.and Sadiq Khan both signed that. That was for the London Bridge

:33:10. > :33:12.attack. A very emotional week here. Paisley and Renfrewshire south. We

:33:13. > :33:18.were talking about that a moment ago. The SNP held that. Here is the

:33:19. > :33:48.result. The Liberal Democrats, 1,327. The

:33:49. > :33:58.Scottish Conservative and Unionist, 8,122.

:33:59. > :34:13.The total number of votes was 41,771. Therefore, I declare that

:34:14. > :34:17.Mhairi Black is duly elected as the Member of Parliament for

:34:18. > :34:20.Renfrewshire south. Thank you. CHEERING AND APPLAUSE.

:34:21. > :34:28.When elected she was the youngest MP, it was said, since the great

:34:29. > :34:33.Reform Act. She was kept by the Labour Party rather under wraps. She

:34:34. > :34:36.wasn't allowed to go out and take part, SNP rather, wasn't allowed to

:34:37. > :34:39.go out and speak very much on television and radio. Because I

:34:40. > :34:44.think they thought she was too inexperienced. She's done well

:34:45. > :34:54.there. Her previous majority of 5,685. Tom Watson's constituency,

:34:55. > :35:03.the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party... He's held on it. Let's hear

:35:04. > :35:09.what he has to say about Labour's result so far. We've got 34 results

:35:10. > :35:14.in, just to remind you. I'm very proud to have been re-elected as the

:35:15. > :35:18.MP for west West Bromich east and I'm deeply grateful for those voters

:35:19. > :35:22.who have voted for me. I promise I will do my best to repay the trust

:35:23. > :35:26.you place in me. I'll continue to work for all people in our

:35:27. > :35:31.community. My congratulations and my respect to all of my opponents in

:35:32. > :35:35.this election. You've all fought a very good campaign, a fair campaign

:35:36. > :35:38.and in the right spirit. Thank you for putting yourselves forward and

:35:39. > :35:45.my very best wishes to you all for the future. We still don't know the

:35:46. > :35:54.final result of this election. It is too early to say. But it looks like

:35:55. > :35:59.(inaudible) The lights have - oh, he's back. He's been cut off in his

:36:00. > :36:06.prime. This is awkward though. He's back, but now he's silent. So we

:36:07. > :36:10.shan't hear what he says. Let's join Michelle and try to find out the

:36:11. > :36:15.important thing that Tom Watson was going to be saying.

:36:16. > :36:20.Happily we can pick up with the Shadow Attorney-General. Thank you,

:36:21. > :36:23.I'm happy to fill in for Tom Watson on this occasion. What was he going

:36:24. > :36:29.to say? This has been a victory for hope over fear. I hope he was going

:36:30. > :36:33.to say that people try to destroy our democracy in recent weeks and I

:36:34. > :36:36.hope that we will see a great turnout when we actually do the

:36:37. > :36:42.maths in the morning and people turned up in their droves and they

:36:43. > :36:46.queued up at polling stations in an election that people tried to

:36:47. > :36:51.disrupt. That in itself is a victory, regardless of where we go -

:36:52. > :36:55.of course, I'm feeling optimistic and feeling better, but the main

:36:56. > :36:59.thing is this was a victory for democracy over terrorism. What is

:37:00. > :37:06.the key to the gains that Labour has made? I think that Jeremy Corbyn ran

:37:07. > :37:12.a fantastic, positive campaign. I think - I'm new to party politics.

:37:13. > :37:16.You know from years of us talking that I was a cross-party human

:37:17. > :37:21.rights campaigner for many years. Like so many people, hundreds of

:37:22. > :37:25.thousands of people in Britain, I joined Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party

:37:26. > :37:31.because of his message of hope over fear and cynicism. Goodness me, it

:37:32. > :37:35.seems to have taken. But the question now is what he does with

:37:36. > :37:40.the result that it is looking like is going to be delivered. Let's see.

:37:41. > :37:44.Let's see. On the basis of the exit poll and the results we're seeing so

:37:45. > :37:51.far, Theresa May is not going to get what she hoped for. Now, are there

:37:52. > :37:54.already calls being made, feelers put out to parties that Labour would

:37:55. > :38:00.hope to support a Queen's Speech that it would put forward? I'm

:38:01. > :38:03.sitting here with you, so goodness knows what calls have been made. I'm

:38:04. > :38:10.not making those calls because I'm sitting with you. Goodness me, what

:38:11. > :38:16.a positive signal and I think that there are a lot of people who'll be

:38:17. > :38:22.sitting up at home tonight thinking, hope triumphs over fear. A campaign

:38:23. > :38:26.that was about policy and not about being nasty to politicians - But is

:38:27. > :38:30.it Labour's hope to form a minority Government? It is Labour's hope to

:38:31. > :38:37.form a Government. It is always Labour's hope to form a Government.

:38:38. > :38:39.A few weeks ago, we were, you know the whole point of this snap

:38:40. > :38:43.election that wasn't supposed to happen, the whole point of the snap

:38:44. > :38:47.election was that Theresa May, who was never - let's be clear - like

:38:48. > :38:55.me, she wasn't elected to be leader of her party. She wasn't elected to

:38:56. > :38:59.be Prime Minister. You said you were new to politics, and she was a long

:39:00. > :39:05.serving Cabinet minister and elected MP for many years. I'm not an

:39:06. > :39:09.elected politician. I'm an advisor. Like millions of people in this

:39:10. > :39:14.country, who want something positive, would wants to get rid of

:39:15. > :39:17.poverty and tuition fees. As a key member of Jeremy Corbyn's team I'm

:39:18. > :39:21.keen for a sense of how a future, whether it is, I mean, a future

:39:22. > :39:24.Government or minority Government, but Labour would work? We are at a

:39:25. > :39:30.point where Brexit negotiatiations are going to start one way or

:39:31. > :39:37.another within days. Can you imagine that a Government led by Labour on

:39:38. > :39:44.the basis of a result that mirrors this exit poll could negotiate with

:39:45. > :39:48.the EU from a position of strength? I think that politics has changed,

:39:49. > :39:54.whatever happens tonight, politics in this country has changed.

:39:55. > :39:58.Jeremy's whole style of politics and the whole style of politics that's

:39:59. > :40:01.confounded every one of your panellists down there and everybody

:40:02. > :40:06.that's sat here with you before, the whole style has changed. It's more

:40:07. > :40:11.consensual, it's more about policies and issues and not a tribal thing

:40:12. > :40:17.almost. I think hope springs eternal at this moment. I just certained my

:40:18. > :40:22.solidarity to everybody at home who's sitting up wanting a country

:40:23. > :40:27.for the many and not the few. And in particular, to the victims and their