:00:09. > :00:15.Muslim men and police. -- men and always. It is time for HARDtalk. As
:00:15. > :00:21.the Western military intervention in Afghanistan failed? This
:00:21. > :00:27.question hangs over the summit in Chicago. The political leaders set
:00:28. > :00:33.the seal on a up military retreat while pledging one-term support for
:00:33. > :00:38.the Afghanistan government. I guessed has just retired as British
:00:38. > :00:48.ambassador in Kabul. Did the west misjudge this balance between war
:00:48. > :01:13.
:01:13. > :01:20.Welcome to the show. Until recently you were the British ambassador off
:01:20. > :01:26.in Kabul. No better than anybody the price the British forces are
:01:26. > :01:30.still paying inside Afghanistan. Can you say you still believe
:01:30. > :01:37.that's the price worth paying? obviously a tragedy for any family
:01:37. > :01:41.to lose a loved one. I know that myself. I preferred to write to the
:01:42. > :01:48.families of famine and women who have given our lives. Every time I
:01:48. > :01:54.write to the families I tried once that question is it worth it? My
:01:54. > :02:01.conclusion is yes. I try to get the sense of what it is we have tried
:02:01. > :02:08.to achieve in Afghanistan and the prospect of success. I think we are
:02:08. > :02:13.in line to deliver a withdrawal of British troops and international
:02:13. > :02:18.troops and leave Afghanistan in a state where it can make progress
:02:18. > :02:25.and build itself into a more stable state. Having repeated Al-Qaeda and
:02:25. > :02:32.getting rid of the Taliban. does appear to be a lack of co-
:02:32. > :02:37.ordination and coherence to the strategic vision of the Western
:02:37. > :02:42.powers and its best seen in the different messages and timescales
:02:42. > :02:48.we see when we discuss when to withdraw the forces and how quickly.
:02:48. > :02:54.I do not agree. I was struck by that, the contrast in Iraq where I
:02:54. > :02:59.was the ambassador during a difficult period. There is a level
:02:59. > :03:07.of international coherence. That laid a foundation for agreement to
:03:07. > :03:11.a transition and wider combat troops will be out by 2014.
:03:11. > :03:19.things have changed since then. The US Defence Secretary took everybody
:03:19. > :03:23.by surprise same the US will be out by 2013. Now we have a new
:03:23. > :03:31.President in France, Francois Hollande saying the French will be
:03:31. > :03:38.a soon. He clarified that saying the mission will evolve. It will
:03:38. > :03:41.not be over. We always spoke about 2013 as a milestone. The
:03:41. > :03:46.responsibility for security throughout the country will be
:03:46. > :03:52.taken over by the Afghan troops. That will happen in the middle of
:03:52. > :03:57.2013. The mission will be more a support role. At the end of the
:03:57. > :04:03.combat role that will be 2014. The you're a diplomat. That's a
:04:03. > :04:13.diplomatic answer. Douglas Alexander has used the phrase she -
:04:13. > :04:18.- phrase a disorderly exit. I think we have a plan, the Lisbon plant,
:04:18. > :04:23.it's still in place. Nobody assumes that all of the troops will remain
:04:23. > :04:29.at the same levels right up until December 2014. It was always assume
:04:29. > :04:34.that people would withdraw at different times. Forgive my
:04:34. > :04:39.interruption that you seem to miss my point Which is the politics
:04:40. > :04:48.driving this process. Boy example Australia. A few thousand troops
:04:48. > :04:55.there. Julia Gillard said they will be pulled out a round the time of
:04:55. > :05:00.the next Australian election, the middle of next year. The unpleasant
:05:00. > :05:05.whiff of politics and self interest in this strategy one person said.
:05:05. > :05:12.It's ludicrous to think politics does not play a part. Every country
:05:12. > :05:18.wants to sell its timetable in the best political way for the domestic
:05:18. > :05:23.audience and that is inevitable. But I don't give represents a
:05:23. > :05:28.disorderly retreat. The American troops represent the overwhelming
:05:28. > :05:32.majority of forces they are. Withdrawal will determine the
:05:32. > :05:38.strategy. With all due respect to the other countries, they are part
:05:38. > :05:42.of a broader alliance. Any single country does not defeat this
:05:42. > :05:47.strategy. The Americans have the overwhelming presence. There will
:05:47. > :05:54.be a reduction of troops this year and next year and all troops will
:05:54. > :06:00.be out by 2014. We will stick to the plan. Many countries may
:06:00. > :06:08.deviate a bit. The overall plan is in place. It's dangerous to stick
:06:08. > :06:13.to this plan to remove all forces by 2014 when the Afghan government
:06:13. > :06:17.and the national security forces are not capable as we see it today
:06:17. > :06:22.of stepping into the breach and fulfilling that responsibility.
:06:22. > :06:26.disagree. Maybe not today but we have a plan to give them two more
:06:26. > :06:30.years. But it had this planned for many years and you have always said
:06:30. > :06:36.it with your predecessors and many other top officials at have assured
:06:36. > :06:41.me year by year that things will get better. Look at the record. In
:06:41. > :06:47.the last two years, the record of infiltration by the Taliban and
:06:47. > :06:53.insurgents. See how much worse that is getting. You say nothing has
:06:53. > :06:58.happened. Three years ago at the was hardly anything to speak of. If
:06:58. > :07:03.they said it was fine on afraid that was not. I'm saying that
:07:03. > :07:08.within a few years we will deliver a reliable Afghan security force.
:07:08. > :07:13.would have sent three years ago that within a few years, 2014, they
:07:13. > :07:17.will be an Afghan force capable of maintaining security and taking
:07:17. > :07:21.over from the international forces. Frankly we have only been at this
:07:21. > :07:28.for about three years. The Afghan forces only began being built up
:07:28. > :07:34.about three years ago. It has now reached its peak. That will be
:07:34. > :07:42.knocked over this year. That is police and national forces. It will
:07:42. > :07:46.be a split between them. That will not be set. It will evolve. If
:07:46. > :07:52.there was a political settlement with the Taylor Dent you would need
:07:52. > :07:59.fewer troops. You've just come back from Kabul. Explain to me why so
:08:00. > :08:05.many acts of violence and problems against NATO forces by the forces
:08:05. > :08:09.wearing the uniform of the Afghan National Army for the police?
:08:10. > :08:19.you talking about attacks on NATO? Most of that is done by the Taliban.
:08:19. > :08:26.There are some acts, with 330,000 Afghan troops. The start incidents
:08:26. > :08:32.that have happened this year. is a place where there is conflict
:08:32. > :08:39.and stress and all kinds of disputes and arguments and personal
:08:39. > :08:47.acts to be played out. If you take these troops in contact with
:08:47. > :08:53.coalition troops and the Afghan troops, 16 is not that many. There
:08:54. > :09:00.is people are supposed to be partners. And in interview the
:09:00. > :09:05.other day, he said that we now need to take special precautions
:09:05. > :09:12.whenever we run a joint offer that operation with the Afghans. That is
:09:13. > :09:17.not symptomatic of trust? Any death, green or blue is regrettable. If
:09:17. > :09:22.there are things you can do to avoid this you will do it. That's
:09:22. > :09:28.what he was talking about. Taking special precautions to make sure
:09:29. > :09:35.somebody does arrive. I seen it in Helmand Province. Despite previous
:09:35. > :09:38.incidents, the troops get along very well. Day today, they train
:09:38. > :09:43.together with joint operations and the British troops told me that
:09:43. > :09:51.they have a great deal of respect and admiration for most of the
:09:51. > :09:55.Afghans. It's difficult when you and others need to defend the
:09:55. > :09:58.resources and billions of dollars spent into that Afghan security
:09:58. > :10:05.forces and then you see things like this. This quote from our
:10:05. > :10:09.correspondent in Kabul. He said, the reality is that the Afghan
:10:09. > :10:13.security forces sell their bullets in the marketplace to the highest
:10:13. > :10:21.bidder and that includes the Taliban or other insurgents and we
:10:21. > :10:26.pay for weapons turned up on our own soldiers. The general in
:10:26. > :10:33.Helmand Province is leading troops there and leading the minute into
:10:33. > :10:38.battle and pushing the Taliban out of previously held territory. There
:10:38. > :10:44.are lot of examples of the Afghans stepping up. Nobody will dispute
:10:44. > :10:49.that. There are lot of good troops in the Afghan army but the issue is
:10:49. > :10:55.if there is a fundamental problem with corruption. Corruption inside
:10:55. > :10:59.these forces and inside the Government that issues orders to
:10:59. > :11:05.those security forces which undermines the whole enterprise.
:11:05. > :11:09.Would you except that? Corruption is a huge problem in Afghanistan.
:11:09. > :11:16.It's throughout the country. Is it won of the most important factors
:11:16. > :11:20.in making this enterprise or difficult? I have said many times,
:11:20. > :11:24.unless the Afghans do more to tackle the corruption and more to
:11:24. > :11:28.stem the corruption then the ability to achieve what we want and
:11:28. > :11:35.what they want will become more difficult. We to address that point
:11:35. > :11:38.about the people issuing orders, political waters, to the military
:11:38. > :11:44.commanders, and that they are under a cloud of corruption. The people
:11:44. > :11:51.at the top of the power pyramid in Kabul. The people that you needed
:11:51. > :11:55.to meet with. Would you accept that many of them at the top under a
:11:55. > :12:01.sustained cloud of corruption? at the top, talking about President
:12:01. > :12:06.Karzai, and people around him, I think he tolerates corruption more
:12:06. > :12:11.than he should as the President for political reasons. There's a sense
:12:11. > :12:14.of the balance of power there being maintained. Perhaps he is more
:12:14. > :12:19.reluctant to go after certain people. With that include his own
:12:19. > :12:24.family? He has been quite good at going up his own family. What
:12:24. > :12:30.lessons did you learn about the banking scandal in Kabul. People
:12:30. > :12:40.very close to the top of that pyramid were implicated, politely,
:12:40. > :12:40.
:12:40. > :12:44.the loss of over $900 million. was the theft of $900 million. It
:12:44. > :12:49.was a brazen theft. You know the suspicion points to people very
:12:49. > :12:52.close to the President. Yes, his own brother and the vice-
:12:52. > :12:59.president's brother, they were the beneficiaries of big loans, there
:12:59. > :13:05.could be called dodgy. This is a litmus test. It is still being
:13:05. > :13:12.played out. I have made this clear to the President that how the bank
:13:13. > :13:18.crisis is resolved will be a litmus test for the west in taking this
:13:18. > :13:22.corruption at face value. A number of things have happened. The
:13:22. > :13:26.president's brother and the vice- president's brother have things to
:13:26. > :13:31.answer for and money to repay. Meanwhile they are still running
:13:31. > :13:37.around Kabul with other key players in the scandal doing what they have
:13:37. > :13:42.always done in couple enjoying the good life. The main key players
:13:43. > :13:49.around the house arrest. They may face trial. House arrest means
:13:49. > :13:54.something different in Afghanistan and London. But pick up on this
:13:54. > :13:59.idea that you have faith in President Karzai. Before -- a
:13:59. > :14:05.former US diplomat, after leaving Afghanistan in controversial
:14:05. > :14:10.circumstances said that in his view, as in Kasai's he is emotional and
:14:10. > :14:20.off balance. They can never win their the cause there is
:14:20. > :14:26.
:14:26. > :14:29.I know him well, I would not always agree with his opinions. The
:14:29. > :14:36.mistake to make is assuming that Afghanistan is Hamid Karzai. I
:14:36. > :14:42.think he's doing a good job. But we do not have to rely on him. He will
:14:42. > :14:48.be the president until 2014, then and there will be at a new election.
:14:48. > :14:54.We have to worry about the institutions. We should not invest
:14:54. > :14:59.everything in one man. That man has said he will leave in 2014 and I
:15:00. > :15:05.believe him. There is the question of establishing an inclusive
:15:05. > :15:10.political process and bring those outside the process into it. I am
:15:10. > :15:17.talking about the insurgent movement, the Taliban. I'm getting
:15:17. > :15:23.very mixed messages about whether the Western powers, led by the US,
:15:23. > :15:29.warned a negotiating process, a dialogue with the Taliban or not.
:15:29. > :15:34.Absolutely. I do not think there is a mixed message. The only people
:15:34. > :15:44.who do not wanted are the Taliban. The Americans have made it clear
:15:44. > :15:49.
:15:49. > :15:54.they support an Afghan lead process. They offered the Taliban... We have
:15:54. > :16:04.seen the Obama Administration withdraw the offer to release five
:16:04. > :16:11.Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo Bay. The military in the US is
:16:11. > :16:21.blocking any meaningful negotiation between the US and the Taliban.
:16:21. > :16:22.
:16:22. > :16:28.is wrong. I have dealt closely with General David Petraeus, I put this
:16:28. > :16:32.to him. The world thinks you are against peace and reconciliation.
:16:32. > :16:39.He said, I am not. I just do not believe the Taliban will do
:16:39. > :16:45.anything about it. I said, OK, make sure you speak up in favour of
:16:45. > :16:53.reconciliation. The problem is the Taliban are still believe that when
:16:53. > :17:03.coalition troops are withdrawn in 2014 they can retake Kabul by force.
:17:03. > :17:05.
:17:05. > :17:13.Until they changed that mine said, some of them have, there is no
:17:13. > :17:18.opportunity for negotiation. -- mindset. The real problem is that
:17:18. > :17:23.from the outset there has been too much emphasis by NATO on the war-
:17:23. > :17:30.fighting, on the military option, not enough emphasis on diplomatic
:17:30. > :17:38.solutions. The Taliban were excluded from the political process
:17:38. > :17:48.from the very get ago. We cannot get into a time machine and go back
:17:48. > :17:50.
:17:50. > :17:55.to 2001. They were excluded. What I saw when I was there, was a real
:17:55. > :18:00.commitment. Hillary Clinton made a real surge for peace. The Americans
:18:00. > :18:06.have been at great pains to create circumstances for a dialogue with
:18:06. > :18:11.the Taliban. The reality is, the Taliban have not responded. The
:18:11. > :18:17.Taliban responded by assassinating a professor when he was trying to
:18:17. > :18:24.make peace. That was their response. Frankly, you might as well say,
:18:24. > :18:28.look at the US and what they do on the ground. For example, we have
:18:28. > :18:36.seen their troops the filing Taliban copses. We have seen
:18:36. > :18:40.Americans burn the Koran. That is not part of the American military
:18:40. > :18:44.strategy. The international strategy is to keep up military
:18:44. > :18:52.pressure on the Taliban to buy time for the Afghan National Army to
:18:52. > :18:57.develop and take over. To convince the Taliban and there is only a
:18:57. > :19:05.political solution. If we have a ceasefire, the Taliban will think
:19:05. > :19:13.they have one. Isn't the problem, the West sees a good Taliban and
:19:13. > :19:19.bad Taliban? Until there is an acceptance that you need to
:19:19. > :19:23.negotiate with the entirety of the Taliban, it will not go anywhere.
:19:23. > :19:33.The differentiation we have made is between those who want to talk and
:19:33. > :19:39.
:19:39. > :19:49.those who want to fight. Nobody has suggested... There is nothing to
:19:49. > :19:53.stop. People like him could have respected positions as senior
:19:53. > :20:00.leaders. Your American colleagues, they are totally on board with
:20:00. > :20:05.that? They do not believe he will... They have not put any limits on it.
:20:05. > :20:15.There are no limits on who can reconcile. The only principles that
:20:15. > :20:15.
:20:16. > :20:21.have to be abided by a those made by Hamid Karzai. Things like
:20:21. > :20:24.Amnesty and ceasefire will come lately. I mentioned Pakistan. In
:20:24. > :20:29.the end we cannot have a discussion about the future of Afghanistan
:20:29. > :20:39.without looking at Pakistan. Did it strike you as very odd that
:20:39. > :20:44.throughout your time in Kabul, we saw a deterioration of the most
:20:44. > :20:49.important relationship NATO could have, Islamabad? You need to get
:20:49. > :20:54.Pakistan on board for a peaceful future for Afghanistan. It has been
:20:54. > :20:58.a roller-coaster. We have seen a deterioration in US-Pakistan
:20:58. > :21:04.relations. We have seen a deterioration in the Afghan-
:21:04. > :21:11.Pakistan relations. It is a terrible diplomatic failure. Your
:21:11. > :21:16.job is to build bridges. Let me finish. I was going to say, great
:21:16. > :21:24.efforts have been made to reverse that situation. The Afghan-Pakistan
:21:24. > :21:32.relations are much better. They have resumed contact. We have seen
:21:32. > :21:39.the Americans, Afghans and Pakistanis have was -- resumed
:21:39. > :21:49.dialogue. Hopefully we will see a strengthening. It is essential for
:21:49. > :21:50.
:21:50. > :21:54.peace. It is. The ISI continues to manipulate, used as proxies some of
:21:54. > :21:58.the most important fighting insurgents inside Afghanistan. If
:21:58. > :22:05.we assume that to be true, what would you do with the Pakistan
:22:05. > :22:09.problem? I think we have to engage the Pakistanis. Make sure they are
:22:09. > :22:12.inside the tent. The Pakistanis have feared that something was
:22:12. > :22:22.going on behind their back which might be to the detriment of their
:22:22. > :22:25.
:22:25. > :22:35.interest. Openness and transparency with the Pakistanis. I think that
:22:35. > :22:38.
:22:38. > :22:46.is happening now. The Afghans accept that... To all of them?
:22:46. > :22:56.Enough of them. If we cut to the chase, Afghanistan's feature is not
:22:56. > :22:57.
:22:57. > :23:03.the problem. -- future. There is open talk of civil war as Western
:23:03. > :23:10.forces pull out. There is going to be a wave of attacks by the Taliban
:23:10. > :23:13.if there is no meaningful peace process now. We expect the wave of
:23:13. > :23:19.attacks. The Taliban have said they are going to have a summer
:23:19. > :23:29.offensive. The previous offensive was a damp squid. What has docked
:23:29. > :23:33.
:23:33. > :23:39.the Taliban from talking, we cannot make them. -- stopped. They say the
:23:39. > :23:44.Pakistanis are stopping them. Frankly, they know Western forces
:23:44. > :23:50.are leaving. They see no reason to talk any more. I think that is part
:23:50. > :23:57.of the calculation. We come back to the beginning of the conversation,
:23:57. > :24:05.has Western strategy worked? depends who wins. Everybody in the
:24:05. > :24:11.West says we cannot win. A senior Afghan once told me, very close to
:24:11. > :24:15.the President, he did not think the Taliban would negotiate. Not until
:24:15. > :24:21.they were defeated by an Afghan force in Kandahar. We are creating
:24:21. > :24:26.the conditions for that to happen. The Taliban will be met by a