:00:05. > :00:13.Keep up-to-date online by visiting the BBC News website. Now on BBC
:00:14. > :00:18.News, it's time for HARDtalk. So much for all the talk of a
:00:18. > :00:24.Moscow spring. Despite sporadic street protests and the stirrings
:00:24. > :00:28.of middle class rebellion, Vladimir Putin is backing the Crinan and
:00:28. > :00:37.Russia's economic and political status quo remains intact. Why do
:00:37. > :00:42.Liberal opponents of him struggle to gain traction? My guest today is
:00:42. > :00:52.Grigory Yavlinsky, a veteran leader of Russia's fragmented opposition.
:00:52. > :01:08.
:01:09. > :01:18.Will the Liberals ever win in Grigory Yavlinsky, welcome to
:01:18. > :01:22.HARDtalk. Thank you. Vladimir Putin is back in the Kremlin and
:01:22. > :01:26.announced a new cabinet that looks quite a lot like the old one,
:01:26. > :01:33.although he is now present. We still see sporadic protests but has
:01:34. > :01:39.anything really changed at all in Russia? But if Vladimir Putin is in
:01:39. > :01:44.the Kremlin, this is a main sign that nothing has changed. It is the
:01:44. > :01:47.same policies we have had for the last 12 years. I suppose the
:01:47. > :01:52.question is whether there is something important about the scale
:01:52. > :01:56.of the protest we saw beginning in December, after the very much
:01:56. > :02:04.disputed elections. That signify something different about the
:02:04. > :02:10.opposition? -- did that signify. signifiers different, not so much
:02:10. > :02:15.for the opposition, but shows that there are a lot of people who are
:02:15. > :02:20.dissatisfied with the policies of the Vladimir Putin and the current
:02:20. > :02:27.government and authorities. These people are not part of the
:02:27. > :02:32.political movement. This is a kind of preparation for the civil
:02:32. > :02:40.movement. It is not even like a movement yet. It is a lot of young
:02:40. > :02:50.people. Groups of people who represent middle class. And it is
:02:50. > :02:51.
:02:51. > :02:56.also a lot of people who can hardly do find their place in the -- in
:02:56. > :03:01.Putin's of Russia. They have no confidence in their own future.
:03:01. > :03:06.me ask this as politely as I can. Do you believe the young people,
:03:06. > :03:14.the protesters you talk about, are involved in a move that which is
:03:14. > :03:20.leaving you behind? -- movement which is. Not all of them. When
:03:20. > :03:29.they were structured politically, they would join different parts of
:03:29. > :03:35.opposition. It is a mistake in -- in that we have the opposition and
:03:35. > :03:41.we have Putin. We have many different groups - leftist,
:03:41. > :03:47.communist, nationalist, fascist, Democrats, criminal opposition, are
:03:47. > :03:56.oligarchic Opposition, liberal opposition, many. And these young
:03:56. > :04:02.people would be fragmented in these groups. But I am struck by the rise
:04:02. > :04:07.of the various oppositions. One man, Alexei, was part of your movement
:04:07. > :04:13.but he left three or four years ago. He now seems to be doing things
:04:13. > :04:20.which you have failed to do. For using the anti-corruption message
:04:20. > :04:26.to reach out to a larger audience than you ever managed to reach.
:04:26. > :04:32.is a member of my party. He was expelled five years ago for
:04:32. > :04:40.nationalism. What do you mean he was expelled for nationalism?
:04:40. > :04:50.openly expressed nationalistic ideas, that Russian nationality
:04:50. > :04:50.
:04:50. > :04:55.must have priority in Russia, that in a different way. He was one of
:04:55. > :05:01.the organisers of the Russian rallies. He spoke about that openly
:05:01. > :05:08.and clearly. That is his political view. And my view and that few of
:05:08. > :05:13.my colleagues is that nationalism, in whatever form, is extremely
:05:13. > :05:17.dangerous for such a country like Russia. So you in the liberal
:05:18. > :05:24.establishment feel that people like him, who have popular appeal, are
:05:24. > :05:32.in some senses dangerously extreme? I am saying that nationalists for
:05:32. > :05:42.Russia, as in Yugoslavia, a decade or two decades ago, are very
:05:42. > :05:43.
:05:43. > :05:51.dangerous and we don't share that kind of view. Another story, the
:05:51. > :06:00.internet, in virtual space, he is rather popular online. He is a
:06:00. > :06:05.clever person. He achieved a lot in that area. But that does not mean...
:06:05. > :06:08.It just seems to me you talk about the need to focus on traditional
:06:08. > :06:13.politics and traditional party politics. Maybe Russia needs
:06:13. > :06:17.something else right now. When you look at him and his anti-corruption
:06:17. > :06:21.website, when you look at the female punk rock band who are
:06:21. > :06:28.currently under arrest because of their protest stance in the middle
:06:28. > :06:32.of Moscow, you look at that sort of protest idea and it seems to have
:06:32. > :06:37.moved on from your version of Russian politics. I am not speaking
:06:37. > :06:43.about my version of Russian politics. I am speaking about
:06:43. > :06:49.politics and it is important, not only what we are doing today and
:06:49. > :06:59.against what we are fighting for, more important or at least not less
:06:59. > :06:59.
:06:59. > :07:03.important is what we are going to do after her we go to the Kremlin.
:07:03. > :07:08.The alternative is extremely politically important. Big Bash
:07:08. > :07:11.after we go. The people we are talking about, they are bright
:07:11. > :07:16.young people but they are expressing their disagreement with
:07:16. > :07:21.the current situation. But they are also expressing an exhaustion with
:07:21. > :07:25.your view of politics. You recently said, in response to the recent
:07:25. > :07:30.protests, did they really think, talking abo talking abootesters, they
:07:30. > :07:33.could achieve something for a head- on collisions and civil war? You
:07:33. > :07:37.said the opposition needs to focus on series politics, winning
:07:37. > :07:41.elections and taking power. And yet this is the view of somebody who
:07:41. > :07:45.has consistently fought elections, whose party gets 3% of the national
:07:45. > :07:50.vote and to do not actually get on the list for a presidential
:07:50. > :07:56.candidate. That is true. These people were not even prepared to do
:07:56. > :08:04.that. If they continue the same line, they would be out of politics
:08:04. > :08:13.forever. So inviting them into the politics, and I am ready to adjust
:08:13. > :08:19.my politics to their views. We are ready and interested to modernise
:08:19. > :08:24.our approach to politics. But, once again, what they are doing at the
:08:24. > :08:30.moment is not politics. It is in the interest of the current group
:08:30. > :08:36.of Mr Putin. He is interested that the population in Russia would be
:08:36. > :08:42.completely depoliticised. But the flipside is that you have helped
:08:42. > :08:46.Putin over the years by continuing with your traditional mainstream
:08:47. > :08:56.party politics, fighting elections and fighting presidential elections.
:08:56. > :09:04.You legitimise a system in which you can never win. Never ever, that
:09:04. > :09:11.is an open question. I have no examples in Russia that somebody
:09:11. > :09:16.won the elections. Maybe once it happened in the beginning of the
:09:16. > :09:22.90s. Since then, it is a special procedure. But I am not talking
:09:22. > :09:30.about that now. I am saying that it is absolutely necessary, if we want
:09:30. > :09:38.to avoid a revolution. I am against the kinds of things which would
:09:38. > :09:46.improve or implement violence in Russia. It is very important for me.
:09:46. > :09:52.How close to real instability is Russia today, do you believe?
:09:52. > :09:59.Russia is in a position that in two weeks, the situation could change.
:09:59. > :10:03.Very seriously into the opposite situation. It is an illusion that
:10:03. > :10:08.Russian politics is stable. Russian politics is stable for the moment.
:10:08. > :10:13.But not for tomorrow and for the day after tomorrow. But what would
:10:13. > :10:17.be the spark? An outsider would see disputes about the way in which
:10:17. > :10:22.elections are handled but we see Putin, who still commands roughly
:10:23. > :10:26.50% of the vote. We see security forces which seemed entirely loyal
:10:26. > :10:34.to the system. You say within a couple of weeks things could change
:10:34. > :10:38.but what would be the spark that could like that fire? Nobody knows.
:10:38. > :10:45.When you have in information on that, please let me know. Nobody
:10:45. > :10:49.knows. That is Russia. -- have any information. Nobody expected in
:10:49. > :10:54.1985 that in five years the Soviet Union would disappear. Nobody
:10:54. > :11:02.expected in the beginning of the century, when Russia joined the
:11:02. > :11:12.First World First Worldt in two years the Russian empire would simply
:11:12. > :11:14.
:11:14. > :11:22.collapse. Nobody expected that. It can happen very quickly, in a very
:11:22. > :11:27.short period of time. In that economy a bit. You are an economist
:11:27. > :11:33.of long-standing. He recently wrote about the s about the s if
:11:33. > :11:40.which capitalism.
:11:40. > :11:44.and lacking, the capitalist spirit that we saw in the West for so long.
:11:44. > :11:50.Is it your contention that the economy in Russia is so weak that
:11:50. > :11:54.it could undermine Putin's grip on power? It is one of the
:11:54. > :12:00.possibilities. There is a lot of money in Russia because of the
:12:01. > :12:06.prices on oil and other raw materials. But from the point of
:12:06. > :12:11.view of modern economy, in terms of private property rights, which does
:12:11. > :12:18.not exist in Russia, in terms of competition, which does not really
:12:18. > :12:24.exist in Russia, in terms of diversified economy, doesn't exist
:12:25. > :12:32.in Russia, from all these points of view, it is a very weak system.
:12:32. > :12:37.yet only a few weeks ago, I spoke to one of Russia's with just an end.
:12:37. > :12:42.He pointed out the vast potential that the Russian economy still has.
:12:42. > :12:47.Resource potential which he says is uncapped, a vast potential to the
:12:47. > :12:53.east, looking at export possibilities, he says there are
:12:53. > :13:01.systemic problems and corruption but understand just how real the
:13:01. > :13:10.potential of our economy is. We are several hundred years over the
:13:10. > :13:15.potential. I am fed up with the potential. I want to have the real
:13:15. > :13:25.market economy effective today. Not the potential for the future
:13:25. > :13:27.
:13:27. > :13:32.generations. In the Communist times, they said we had potential to
:13:32. > :13:37.create communism. At New Road the 500 day programme of reform in 1990
:13:37. > :13:44.to change Russia from being a communist to capitalist. -- but you
:13:44. > :13:48.wrote be. And then there was a total economic nightmare and the
:13:48. > :13:57.rise of the exploitative oligarch. Yes. Because 500 days, that problem
:13:57. > :14:05.was not realised. The Washington consensus was recognised instead.
:14:05. > :14:12.The mainstream of the world economy came to Russia and created
:14:12. > :14:17.oligarchic, so any criminal economy. -- so any criminal. That was
:14:17. > :14:21.because of systemic mistakes. can make that argument but going
:14:21. > :14:27.back to politics, the Russian people don't buy it. They associate
:14:27. > :14:31.people like you, the radical liberal economic reformers, with
:14:31. > :14:35.economic chaos. They look at Putin and the fact that even now he is
:14:35. > :14:42.delivering 4% growth a year, unemployment that is lower than the
:14:42. > :14:47.UK and the US, they say, "it is not great but we have got order,
:14:47. > :14:57.stability and those are things we never had when the real Neil
:14:57. > :14:59.
:14:59. > :15:03.Two things. Firstly, you're right. This is one of their problems. I
:15:03. > :15:09.was strongly against the old policies. I was against that tide
:15:09. > :15:14.of reform that we had in Russia. Nevertheless, because it was a
:15:14. > :15:18.market reformer, because I was a supporter of integration of Russia
:15:18. > :15:27.in Europe and in the world, because I was a supporter of private
:15:27. > :15:31.property and competition and capitalist economies, we pulled all
:15:31. > :15:38.those people together with no difference. This is absolutely true.
:15:38. > :15:42.You have never been there were to escape from that. Yes, but there
:15:42. > :15:49.was a real difficulty separating that. But I am speaking about
:15:49. > :15:54.different things. You are not right saying that the people today are
:15:54. > :16:02.saying that kind of stability that Vladimir Putin implemented is OK.
:16:02. > :16:07.It was OK after the decay of your son. That was true. Now it is a
:16:07. > :16:14.different story. Now they are saying it is almost enough. It is
:16:14. > :16:23.too long to have the same thing for 12 years. So the main policy of
:16:23. > :16:32.Vladimir Putin is not to allow alternatives. The problem it within
:16:32. > :16:39.that is, what are we today calling the liberal economists, but we are
:16:39. > :16:46.not. They were not the liberal economists. They were very close to
:16:46. > :16:51.being, I would put it as the people who are saying that calls justified
:16:51. > :16:57.the means. How does one go about changing the Russian economy? If we
:16:57. > :17:01.think about the message that has been sent to Russians with the fate
:17:01. > :17:05.of Michel quad core ski. If we think about what happened to the
:17:05. > :17:15.loyal -- the lawyer who was trying to uncover the vast reservoir of
:17:15. > :17:16.
:17:16. > :17:21.corruptions. He felt that in the financial affairs. Think about the
:17:21. > :17:29.fate of these individuals. Who is going to stand up for the rule of
:17:29. > :17:34.law foreign independent judiciary's you are right once again. From the
:17:34. > :17:39.side of the business. They would not do that. They are afraid. They
:17:39. > :17:46.will tell you stories about potential. That is why the
:17:46. > :17:51.politicians like my friend and I, we do not have a high standing. It
:17:51. > :17:57.is a difficult exercise. Try to do routine business, making profits
:17:57. > :18:03.with no business. The businesses are afraid that it is a strategy of
:18:03. > :18:08.the Vladimir Putin. Is it true that man was funnelling money to your
:18:08. > :18:12.political movement? Yes, of course. So you believed you could make
:18:12. > :18:17.common cause with big business and changed the course of Russia? Isn't
:18:17. > :18:20.that a mixed message? You don't like their system, you don't like
:18:20. > :18:27.that of men like that can amass fortunes worth many millions. But
:18:27. > :18:36.you were happy to take his money. will tell you a secret. Life is
:18:36. > :18:43.always mixed. Politics is always mixed. I was absolutely sure that
:18:43. > :18:48.the vital interest off of all interpreters in Russia, all
:18:48. > :18:54.business people, is to have real private property, rights, freedom
:18:54. > :19:01.and law. That is my problem. A very simple, clear, and difficult to
:19:01. > :19:10.implement. I am absolutely sure he was also interested in that. I
:19:10. > :19:14.disagree with him as a representative of those circles,
:19:14. > :19:20.but in the future, we have the same vital interests as all other people
:19:20. > :19:28.in Russia. You talk about fear. Is there a great deal of fee in Russia
:19:28. > :19:37.today? Among the people who have property, of course. Tell me if
:19:37. > :19:42.this is true. I have read that in the '90s, you experience the most
:19:42. > :19:48.extraordinary fearful moment when I believe you stop some was taken
:19:48. > :19:57.hostage by force as we know not who they were. He had his fingers cut
:19:57. > :20:03.off and sent to you. Is that true? Yes, it is true. But I do not use
:20:04. > :20:08.those arguments in my political life. Why? It is not the argument.
:20:08. > :20:15.The argument is your programme, you believe, your principles, your
:20:15. > :20:22.character. That is the argument. Many Russian people had a lot of
:20:22. > :20:27.the very difficult things in their lives. That was the period of time
:20:27. > :20:34.when the war started in Russia. Maybe what you read about my family
:20:34. > :20:41.and my son was a little bit journalistically arranged. Not
:20:41. > :20:48.every word was close to the reality. The substance was that what you
:20:48. > :20:54.said. But I am sure that for the real politicians, this is not a way
:20:54. > :20:58.of making your popularity, telling terrible stories about your life.
:20:58. > :21:05.The reason I ask is because he paid a picture of Russia potentially
:21:05. > :21:09.very unstable. Potentially full of conflict in the future. The believe
:21:09. > :21:14.that the sort of the new experienced, the intimidation,
:21:14. > :21:20.could happen again? Could Russia remain a society where violence is
:21:20. > :21:29.close to the edge? I am afraid it is possible. Almost everything is
:21:29. > :21:34.possible in Russia. Not like in America. It is possible. It's
:21:34. > :21:37.interesting that you say not like America. It brings me back to a big
:21:37. > :21:44.thought about you enjoy opposition. You have written a lot about the
:21:44. > :21:52.state of capitalism and it is fair to say that as a man who represents
:21:52. > :21:58.the many Russians argument for Western-style liberal politicians,
:21:58. > :22:02.capitalism in the west is looking unhealthy right now. Rye at. Isn't
:22:02. > :22:08.that a profound problem for you? To make the case that a system which
:22:08. > :22:12.is apparently very well built in the worst? Yes, it is one of my key
:22:12. > :22:19.problems in Russia. Because I am trying to say that I want to create
:22:19. > :22:26.the same system like in Europe. I have the answer from averages which
:22:26. > :22:32.is saying, are you crazy? Look at them. I am saying I want to have
:22:32. > :22:39.human rights in Russia. They're saying, look at Iraq? Look at
:22:40. > :22:44.Afghanistan and? Look at the news every day. It is all the same. The
:22:45. > :22:48.prisons in Europe. Things like that. Of the problem for Russia, one of
:22:48. > :22:52.the problems, you were talking about the problems for Russian
:22:52. > :23:01.opposition. There is one more problem which is that we have no
:23:01. > :23:05.examples. The west is trying to create workable effective systems.
:23:05. > :23:11.The Irene a position where we can't say, look at them, let us do the
:23:11. > :23:18.same. You are described by many as the most pro-Western politician.
:23:18. > :23:22.You believe the west has led to down? No, it is our country, it is
:23:22. > :23:29.my country, we are doing the best for our country. We don't need the
:23:29. > :23:34.favour. But what we really are interested in, but you must be
:23:35. > :23:41.successful. I didn't mean let you down in the sense that you expected
:23:41. > :23:46.more. I meant in terms of a role model. Of giving a model to rush of
:23:46. > :23:52.what they could be. Yes, but you are doing that, not because you
:23:52. > :23:57.want to fail. You are failing because you have problems. Your
:23:57. > :24:01.problems are very serious. In the case of Russia, it is a kind of
:24:02. > :24:05.extreme example of the problems now that you have. I can demonstrate to
:24:05. > :24:13.you one by one that we have the same problems that you have, but
:24:13. > :24:19.the scale of our problems is much larger. That is the obstacle for us.
:24:19. > :24:24.The beginning of a new Russia started with the argument that we
:24:24. > :24:30.can live in the same way like Europeans and Americans. And now