:00:14. > :00:18.it's time for Hardtalk. Turkey has accused Syria of a hostile act for
:00:18. > :00:24.shooting down one of its military jets. It has not yet called for
:00:24. > :00:28.NATO or the UN to respond. If it did, how would they react? Mater is
:00:28. > :00:33.reluctant to get involved in at the UN, Russia and China have blocked
:00:33. > :00:37.attempts to do something. The British Prime Secretary has warned
:00:37. > :00:43.Syria risks becoming the next Bosnia Hercegovina, slipping into
:00:43. > :00:53.civil war while the world watches. My guest was the UN's man in Bosnia.
:00:53. > :01:14.
:01:14. > :01:19.He is saying the West is getting it Her paddy Ashdown, welcome to hard'.
:01:20. > :01:26.Why is the West getting it wrong? They failed to learn the lessons of
:01:26. > :01:32.Libya. We're not living in the days of the Western policy like Syria
:01:33. > :01:40.like Iraq led by Georgian bush. The power of the West is diminished. We
:01:40. > :01:46.cannot treat the UN security Council does regard we we did in
:01:46. > :01:50.Kosovo. Then we went in without a UN security Resolution. What we now
:01:50. > :01:56.need two to do is to measure of diplomacy in ways that is designed
:01:56. > :02:04.to get unanimity of the security Council. We did that well for Libya.
:02:04. > :02:09.We did two things. We did two things, Obama pulled back and let
:02:09. > :02:14.the Arab nations carry the demand for action in Libya. And not anchor
:02:14. > :02:18.it on regime change. Their anger that in Libya on humanitarian
:02:18. > :02:23.relief. We knew the government had to go, but we made that as a
:02:23. > :02:29.consequence rather than the first act. In Syria we have reverted to
:02:29. > :02:33.type. It is being led by Hillary Clinton, and it has been calling
:02:33. > :02:39.for regime change which requires the Russians to agree to get rid of
:02:39. > :02:45.the one person who is their friend in the Middle East. If we allow the
:02:45. > :02:51.Arabs to lead this, and if we allowed to be about humanitarian
:02:51. > :03:00.action to save the citizens of Homs. Then we would be no better position
:03:00. > :03:05.than we would not be in the impasse we are at. You say treating the UN
:03:05. > :03:10.with cavalier disregard, there is no evidence America has any
:03:10. > :03:15.appetite for intervention. Whereas the Cavalier this regard, the
:03:15. > :03:19.cavalier disregard was in the days of Iran. In terms of what they are
:03:19. > :03:27.doing now, you are saying they have not learnt the lessons and we are
:03:27. > :03:32.back to? A America has concluded that before she will agree to an
:03:32. > :03:38.intervention in as the UN security intervention and agreement. What
:03:38. > :03:46.they are getting wrong is getting the consensus from the UN? A lame
:03:46. > :03:54.to explain. In Libya, we made it difficult for Russia to veto. It
:03:54. > :03:58.was not about regime change, it was about humanitarian. In Syria, we
:03:58. > :04:03.have made it easy for the Russians to claim this is a Western posse,
:04:03. > :04:09.that their leaders of imperialism, and this should not be led by
:04:09. > :04:13.regime change. One of the reasons Russia has vetoed a resolution
:04:13. > :04:19.already and is reluctant to go for words and some of the ways the West
:04:19. > :04:25.is calling for is because of Libya. Because there was a sense the West
:04:25. > :04:30.overstepped its mark. Russia and Libya's belief that the West
:04:30. > :04:34.overstepped the mark makes it more difficult in Syria. Why make it
:04:34. > :04:40.easier for the Russians to say no. When you manage your diplomacy
:04:40. > :04:45.today, try to manage it with your wisdom. Try to learn the lessons
:04:45. > :04:54.the West finds herself in. Make it as difficult as you can for the
:04:54. > :05:02.Russians to say, we have made it as easy as possible. We are suggesting
:05:02. > :05:06.you -- the Russians are same night because the West wanted? By having
:05:06. > :05:12.a Western policy rather than Arabs leading this, you make it easier
:05:12. > :05:16.for the Russians to claimants. By making us about regime change
:05:16. > :05:21.instead of humanitarian assistance, who made it the easiest for them to
:05:21. > :05:24.say No It should be about removing a friend in Syria. Diplomacy
:05:24. > :05:30.nowadays takes place at UN security Council in ways that was not the
:05:30. > :05:36.case in the days of Iraq or Kosovo. Why not play your diplomacy to that
:05:36. > :05:42.end. We do have a situation where the UN itself is producing reports
:05:42. > :05:47.that are extremely critical of what the Syrian government is doing? You
:05:47. > :05:55.seem to be advocating that moral outrage, a response to that has no
:05:55. > :06:02.place? I did not advocate any such thing. In order to be successful,
:06:02. > :06:10.you need to have a sense of what is right and morality and legality in
:06:10. > :06:17.international law. We have to be canny about the way you do it.
:06:17. > :06:21.Which is why you and up saying, and a letter to the Financial Times,
:06:21. > :06:30.that the splits have provided the Assad government with a licence to
:06:30. > :06:33.kill. Do you blame Western governments? I blame Western
:06:33. > :06:41.governments, its have an interview based on what I siege not on what
:06:41. > :06:47.you think I said. Let me quote to, cowering innocent people have been
:06:47. > :06:53.left to pay the price for a UN deadlock. I read that and I think
:06:53. > :06:58.you are blaming Western leaders? You're wrong to think that. I'm
:06:58. > :07:01.saying Western leaders have handled it clumsily. You have to be
:07:02. > :07:07.reasonable, think you want a headline out of this. Of the West
:07:07. > :07:12.has acted an adequate be, without diplomatic intelligence and
:07:12. > :07:19.subtlety in achieving this, does not mean to say I think they are
:07:19. > :07:23.morally responsible. What seems odd is that you are accusing them of
:07:24. > :07:31.clumsy diplomacy and the way you are going about it, it could be
:07:31. > :07:37.argued? It is not what I argued. point is that the way you are
:07:37. > :07:41.arguing it is in strong language. You are putting a lot of blame to
:07:41. > :07:47.the way they are doing it? I am putting blame to the West for
:07:47. > :07:50.leading to a situation where I believe we have a deadlock. It may
:07:50. > :07:54.not have been necessary if they had handled matters are no more canny
:07:54. > :07:59.way. To extend that to the proposition time claiming the
:07:59. > :08:06.Western leaders for the moral outrage is conducted in Syria Mac
:08:06. > :08:15.is wrong. Do you blame Russia for this? Off course I blame Russia.
:08:15. > :08:24.The dreadful proposition we are facing is this, unhappily, it will
:08:24. > :08:29.take more time and probably more blood before Russia comes to her
:08:29. > :08:33.senses and realises that continuing to support President Assad is not
:08:33. > :08:37.in the interests of the suffering people of Syria or in the interests
:08:37. > :08:41.of Russia. If we have handled things differently, I do not think
:08:41. > :08:46.we would be in quite the deadlock we are run. The way out would have
:08:46. > :08:51.been easier. As it is, I suspect the only way out of this is more
:08:51. > :08:56.time, more tragedy and more blood. You talk about the Arabs should
:08:57. > :09:00.have been taking the lead, what about the role of Turkey? We have a
:09:00. > :09:10.situation where it Turkish plan has been shot down and two key is not
:09:10. > :09:11.
:09:11. > :09:15.yet calling for any action. What's we need is cool heads. Court
:09:15. > :09:20.judgments, we've got ourselves in a difficult position. There has been
:09:20. > :09:25.too much grandstanding. It may be that Turkey has eight case. I do
:09:25. > :09:31.not think duty has the facts about the shooting. Pre-empt reaction by
:09:31. > :09:36.two key would be foolish. There is a different issue about the role of
:09:36. > :09:40.Turkey. Two key played a key wrong been leading the Coalition in Libya.
:09:40. > :09:46.Duty has an interesting role to play in the eastern Mediterranean,
:09:46. > :09:51.it is one of the world's great hot spots. The problem is this, that
:09:51. > :09:59.from where we are now, the situation in Syria books to be
:09:59. > :10:04.likely to develop into a conflict with regional connotations. Saudi
:10:04. > :10:10.Arabia is providing weapons for the rebels. And Iran is providing
:10:10. > :10:16.weapons for Assad backed by Russia. If this was to widen into a Sunni
:10:16. > :10:19.Shi'ite conflict would be very terrible for the region. In our
:10:19. > :10:24.current interconnected world, we could have a regional war with
:10:24. > :10:29.global connotations. The point about two key's role in this
:10:29. > :10:34.circumstance, now that things have become so polarised is that two key
:10:34. > :10:40.players in to that Sunni issue. The space we now have for sensible
:10:40. > :10:42.diplomacy led by two key is less than was previously. One of the
:10:42. > :10:48.suggestions have been that any action taken could have a Turkish
:10:48. > :10:56.general heading up a NATO mission? Are that in a position when they
:10:56. > :11:01.can be involved? I'm just trying to clarify what you are saying.
:11:01. > :11:07.choose my words very carefully. capacity to play Turkey into this
:11:07. > :11:10.in a constructive role is not gone, but it is less than it was when
:11:10. > :11:18.things were less polarised. This is because of the polarisation the
:11:18. > :11:22.Western nations, led by the United States, have led to a deadlock in
:11:22. > :11:27.the United Nations which probably did not have to be as sharp as it
:11:27. > :11:31.is. A polarised situation which did not need to be as dark as this.
:11:31. > :11:36.When you look at some of the language coming out of two key,
:11:36. > :11:40.they described the shooting down of the plane as a hostile act. Do you
:11:40. > :11:46.think we do not yet know if it is a hostile act? We should recognise
:11:46. > :11:53.the Turkish government has a role to play for its own population.
:11:53. > :12:03.When it comes to taking action, we need to make sure that wise heads
:12:03. > :12:03.
:12:03. > :12:07.and sensible judgements prevailed. To savour that it is not an agenda
:12:07. > :12:17.that Act and to mention their population, you seem to be
:12:17. > :12:17.
:12:17. > :12:23.suggesting it is posturing on their part. We know government has to do
:12:23. > :12:26.things. It has to react in a sensible fashion, a much
:12:26. > :12:30.irresponsible fashion on the international stage so as not to
:12:30. > :12:35.make a difficult crisis more difficult. Turkey are doing it well.
:12:35. > :12:39.It has to act in ways that satisfy its people. The British government
:12:39. > :12:49.will probably be acting the same way. You are correct that we do not
:12:49. > :12:53.
:12:53. > :12:58.know the detail. I am making a different point. Here is a plan
:12:58. > :13:03.that was shot down, the Turkish government says it was a training
:13:03. > :13:10.jet and it was over the eastern Mediterranean. And you say it was
:13:10. > :13:17.not an illegitimate thing to say. They have said it was a hostile act.
:13:17. > :13:23.Is it surprising they would say that? There is a vast difference
:13:23. > :13:28.between rhetoric used internally in domestic audience in two key in
:13:28. > :13:33.what you do internationally. Ankara have acted with a considerable
:13:33. > :13:39.restraint. They have not raised the level of the temperature. They will
:13:39. > :13:42.wait to see what the outcome will be. Do what she won two seats his
:13:42. > :13:52.judgments made about a very difficult situation in a crisis
:13:52. > :14:07.
:14:07. > :14:13.that could get worse, I do not What to Russia do? Do they sit and
:14:13. > :14:20.watch? I hate to say this because I like to see issues resolved. I like
:14:20. > :14:26.to recommend steps to be taken. But my suspicion is not much can be
:14:26. > :14:31.done until more time is past, and I am afraid to say, more blood.
:14:31. > :14:36.unfair the danger that as more time passes, more villagers are pitted
:14:36. > :14:40.against each other? There is a worse situation. My fear is a
:14:40. > :14:46.widening conflict. You will see it first in Lebanon. It will begin of
:14:46. > :14:54.course in Syria. It is very dangerous. I would like to
:14:54. > :14:58.recommend action we can take tomorrow. Continuing to exercise --
:14:58. > :15:01.Russia continuing to exercise their veto is not in their interest. They
:15:01. > :15:07.have not yet come to that realisation but I suspect that they
:15:07. > :15:12.will. There is not much we can give. Allow me to suggest two frameworks.
:15:12. > :15:16.Can we come back to that. You mention Russia. Is it in their
:15:16. > :15:22.economic interests are to be to? We know they have very strong trade
:15:22. > :15:30.ties with Syria. Some argue further, that Russia's interest is in
:15:30. > :15:36.keeping oil prices higher, and keeping Syria destabilised makes
:15:36. > :15:40.the situation better for them. Here are two things I think we could do.
:15:40. > :15:47.I think we should Council wise heads. We should take the heat out
:15:47. > :15:54.of the Turkish aircraft situation. We as the West can stand back a bit
:15:54. > :15:59.and let us hear the Arab voices. Provided we stay clear of a wider
:15:59. > :16:02.consider. We could concentrate more heavily on humanitarian actions.
:16:02. > :16:07.The UN Security Council has called for these things are a few days ago,
:16:07. > :16:11.I would have liked to have seen that called for earlier. Let's
:16:11. > :16:16.concentrate on the humanitarian plight. If we do that you open up a
:16:16. > :16:22.new range of options. Getting peace out of the situation, although it
:16:22. > :16:28.is much beloved of the journalists, is not an anxious -- and action, it
:16:28. > :16:34.is a process. If you look at that prose says, what happened in Bosnia,
:16:34. > :16:43.the process started with a humanitarian effort. -- process.
:16:43. > :16:47.understand why William Hague has sought to use a piece a short head.
:16:47. > :16:50.If he is trying to say there is a humanitarian could taps --
:16:50. > :16:53.catastrophe, it might be appropriate. But the differences
:16:53. > :16:58.with Bosnia are far greater than the similarities. The biggest one,
:16:58. > :17:03.in Bosnia we could have acted but we chose not to. In this crisis we
:17:03. > :17:11.would like to act but we cannot. When the international community,
:17:11. > :17:15.the UN, tried to act in Bosnia, Russia vetoed one of the
:17:15. > :17:20.resolutions on the process. I don't think they did, actually. I think
:17:20. > :17:30.you are talking about Kosovo. Your memory may be better than mine,
:17:30. > :17:34.
:17:34. > :17:37.Sarah. December, 1994. It was on Bosnia. What was the resolution?
:17:37. > :17:43.What we were able to do nevertheless was go-ahead an act.
:17:43. > :17:47.Kosovo is much stiffer. But we are in a different age now. In Bosnia
:17:47. > :17:53.we have the power to act and we chose not to. Here we would like to
:17:53. > :17:58.act and we cannot. In Bosnia, these were the days when the West
:17:58. > :18:02.dominated. We're not in that world any longer. Libya is a clear
:18:02. > :18:07.example of that. In Libya what we did was we accepted that NATO was
:18:07. > :18:10.not enough, we had to add to that. We added the Arab nations. One of
:18:10. > :18:14.the lessons that we should have learned, and perhaps haven't, is
:18:14. > :18:21.that in the modern age, if the West wants to get things done it needs
:18:21. > :18:27.to find new partners outside the cosy Atlantic Club. Let's go to
:18:27. > :18:31.this possible humanitarian mission. It's you have a UN role of there.
:18:31. > :18:35.One of the lessons from Bosnia surely is that any United Nations
:18:35. > :18:41.soldiers on a humanitarian mission must be backed up with a mandate
:18:41. > :18:45.that allows them to properly protect and to shoot back.
:18:45. > :18:52.actually, that is not true. true? After what happened in
:18:52. > :18:58.Bosnia? You have a very faulty memory. For give me but I reminded
:18:58. > :19:06.you about the Russian resolution. don't think the resolution did not
:19:06. > :19:13.-- made much difference. In Bosnia, let me remind you. The UN went in
:19:13. > :19:16.as UN command, blue helmets, and failed. Then the UN are sub-
:19:16. > :19:25.contracted its action to an organisation capable of carrying it
:19:26. > :19:33.out, NATO. It was not new when that went in. -- not have the UN. That
:19:33. > :19:41.is what happened. I may not have gone into the Peter... They are
:19:42. > :19:47.fundamental. -- the details. If you want to safe havens, how do you
:19:47. > :19:54.make it work? I am suggesting that we need to shift... I don't have a
:19:54. > :20:00.blueprint. A humanitarian corridor as proposed by the UN Security --
:20:00. > :20:06.the UN Secretary General, probably based on the proximity of the
:20:06. > :20:12.Turkish border. A humanitarian Corder -- corridor... We have to
:20:12. > :20:17.get our minds out of thinking West and NATO. It's you have to think
:20:17. > :20:21.much more imaginatively. There are some ingredients. You do it through
:20:21. > :20:27.a humanitarian corridor. Secondly you do it probably connecting to
:20:27. > :20:30.Turkey and using the North area of the Syrian-Turkish border. And
:20:30. > :20:37.thirdly, the mechanism by which you enable that to happen would be Arab
:20:37. > :20:41.lead rather than Western. Given the fears of a Sunni Shia split, what
:20:41. > :20:47.are we talking about? I'm not talking about that detail are, I
:20:47. > :20:51.think it would be wrong to do that. There are those considerations. You
:20:51. > :20:55.have to think of Jordan, Turkey. I'm not giving you a blueprint. You
:20:55. > :21:00.have asked me the way to go. I think it would be far better if we
:21:00. > :21:03.got ourselves out of the mindset that says, the West and NATO have
:21:03. > :21:09.to lead this. You have to have Western tanks and bombers in there.
:21:09. > :21:12.All I am trying to do is get your vision. So, we have these Arab
:21:12. > :21:17.nations who are on this international mission to create a
:21:17. > :21:27.safe haven. But then mandate extends purely that they cannot
:21:27. > :21:31.shoot back. I --. You are asking me to predict. -- I don't know. I am
:21:31. > :21:37.simply saying, this is a way forward. You have asked me for an
:21:37. > :21:42.indication how we might get out of it. I think you -- I have given you
:21:42. > :21:46.a good one. Let's move on to some comments about what is happening in
:21:46. > :21:51.Britain. Here we are in the first coalition since the Second World
:21:51. > :21:56.War. You as former leader of the Liberal Democrats obviously have an
:21:56. > :22:00.interest. We're two years into it. It is three years in theory before
:22:00. > :22:06.a general election. There are greater signs over the last month
:22:06. > :22:11.or so of strain, of the fractious nature of it, then there have been
:22:11. > :22:14.so far. Perhaps not surprising. It is new. It is going to be difficult.
:22:14. > :22:20.But perhaps not surprisingly also as a result of what we have seen
:22:20. > :22:23.recently many are wondering whether it can survive to the election.
:22:23. > :22:27.Anybody who believes that inventing a coalition we would not have
:22:27. > :22:31.strains between the two parties is not paying attention to politics.
:22:31. > :22:36.If you want to see the unity... By the way, it was often far less than
:22:36. > :22:44.it looked as we now knew when we read them Tony Blair diaries and
:22:44. > :22:47.other diaries. We are inventing a new kind of politics in which two
:22:47. > :22:52.parties work together and from time to time disagree. Personally I find
:22:52. > :22:57.it refreshing. The question is, have the actions by the Government
:22:57. > :23:03.been diminished by these pensions? I would have that -- tensions? I
:23:03. > :23:08.would say, friendly disagreement. No. The Lib Dems abstained on a
:23:08. > :23:13.vote of... It is a perfectly friendly disagreement. It seems
:23:13. > :23:22.pretty easy to me. I don't find it difficult. I don't find it
:23:22. > :23:26.surprising. What can we expect? have to get out of the mindset of
:23:26. > :23:33.NATO. Let's get out a writ and imagine what will come in the years
:23:33. > :23:37.ahead. In my view, if you looked at the Margaret Thatcher government at
:23:37. > :23:41.this term, she was the most unpopular prime minister of all
:23:41. > :23:45.time. If you look at Tony Blair in a mid-term you will find that he
:23:45. > :23:48.lost 2000 council seats in the first two elections. No government
:23:48. > :23:51.is popular in its mid-term especially one that is doing it as
:23:51. > :23:56.difficult as this one is doing. If there is a dividend to be delivered
:23:56. > :23:59.for this, anybody believes it was going to come at this point is not
:23:59. > :24:05.paying attention. If it comes up for it is going to come in the last
:24:05. > :24:08.year of the government when we are seeing, as Lib Dems, to have
:24:08. > :24:12.competed in a top fashion, in it very difficult period of government
:24:12. > :24:16.for Britain, and delivered the country to the edge of the exit