:00:12. > :00:16.when he disappeared. Time for These are anxious times for British
:00:16. > :00:20.Conservatives. A stiff dose of Tory austerity has not yet lifted the UK
:00:20. > :00:23.economy off its sickbed. The Conservative party is behind Labour
:00:23. > :00:26.in the polls, and perhaps most worryingly, two years into David
:00:26. > :00:32.Cameron's premiership, Tories still seem undecided about the party's
:00:32. > :00:37.strategic direction. HARDtalk speaks to Tim Montgomerie, founder
:00:37. > :00:41.of the website ConservativeHome.com. He is a key player in the soul
:00:41. > :00:51.searching on the political right. What makes for a winning brand of
:00:51. > :01:26.
:01:26. > :01:32.Tim Montgomerie, welcome. Far from turning cartwheels of job, he's
:01:32. > :01:42.seen overwhelmed by a sense of foreboding. Why? For a couple of
:01:42. > :01:42.
:01:42. > :01:48.reasons. This is not the government Conservatives have waited for. The
:01:48. > :01:57.last time we won a majority was 1992. We had been out of power for
:01:57. > :02:04.a longer. In our history. The compromises of the coalition are
:02:04. > :02:14.one reason. The second reason is we cannot say a plan to change that.
:02:14. > :02:19.To win the next election, to address the fact the Conservative
:02:19. > :02:24.government has struggled to win the popular vote. He had David Cameron
:02:24. > :02:28.enpower and George Osborne running the Treasury. You have Tory
:02:28. > :02:33.philosophy behind the key economic planks of policy making in this
:02:33. > :02:38.government and yet you say and you have written about it extensively,
:02:38. > :02:42.you wonder if the Tories would ever again win an outright majority. It
:02:42. > :02:44.makes us sound like you believe what the Tories are doing is
:02:44. > :02:49.hindering their long-term objectives of the Conservative
:02:49. > :02:54.Party. To be clear, some of the things this government is doing is
:02:54. > :02:59.incredibly important and I support wholeheartedly. The deficit
:02:59. > :03:04.reduction programme is not a programme of tries, it is of
:03:04. > :03:07.necessity. In the early years when the economy was still strong, he
:03:07. > :03:15.wanted to share the proceeds of growth between higher public
:03:15. > :03:19.spending and tax cuts. It is not an anti-state Conservative Party. The
:03:19. > :03:29.reforms the Iain Duncan Smith is making for a double first day, the
:03:29. > :03:30.
:03:30. > :03:36.reforms of schools, there are great. But Margaret Thatcher could not
:03:36. > :03:41.increase the share of a bird that she won after 1979. Tony Blair
:03:41. > :03:45.could not win the share of popular vote he won after he was elected.
:03:45. > :03:50.If David Cameron is able to increase his share of the vote, it
:03:50. > :03:54.will be an extraordinary achievement. Those of us to worry
:03:54. > :03:58.about achieving a Conservative governments are looking for the
:03:58. > :04:01.game changes. We do not think this is enough to be an average
:04:02. > :04:06.Government with an average of re- election plan. It need something
:04:07. > :04:12.special. Would you have on your website ConservativeHome.com has
:04:12. > :04:17.become one of the go to places for political discussion in the UK,
:04:17. > :04:26.especially for Conservative Party members. When you have there is one
:04:26. > :04:35.Lower go card soon which comes with the words, at David Cameron wrong
:04:35. > :04:40.or modernisation. Where has he gone wrong? I am someone who does not
:04:40. > :04:46.think the Conservative Party is in the right place. I do not think it
:04:46. > :04:52.is enough to go back to where the word. Where has it Cameron got it
:04:52. > :04:56.wrong? He made a lot of good decisions focusing on the health...
:04:56. > :05:01.I want to know where he got it wrong. The strategic mistake he
:05:01. > :05:05.made early in his leadership was he thought the Conservative Party was
:05:05. > :05:09.to right wing. By that he meant we talked to much about Europe, we
:05:09. > :05:15.were to focus on issues like crime and immigration. There is no
:05:15. > :05:19.evidence that has ever worried the British people. 80% of the British
:05:19. > :05:23.people a grave with us on those topics. The problem with the
:05:23. > :05:28.Conservative Party has been since Margaret Thatcher's day. Not a
:05:28. > :05:34.we're too right wing but that we do not balance that with a concern for
:05:34. > :05:43.blue-collar workers, drivers. We are not committed enough to the
:05:43. > :05:49.public services. The challenge for the Conservative Party is not to
:05:49. > :05:57.stop talking about but is familiar with us. It is about having an
:05:57. > :06:05.agenda. We will still be there with the safety net, we will still
:06:05. > :06:10.believe in the NHS. Everything You mentioned about marrying populist
:06:10. > :06:16.traditional issues with a belief the Tories will maintain a strong
:06:16. > :06:19.state, comes back to this word state. You said early in this
:06:19. > :06:24.conversation that he did not seek Cameron as an anti-state person.
:06:24. > :06:28.But look at the reality. What David Cameron and George Osborne are
:06:28. > :06:33.doing is imposing a prolonged period of austerity which in the
:06:33. > :06:43.end was take Britain, in terms of the proportions of project and
:06:43. > :06:44.
:06:44. > :06:50.spending that comes from the government, taking a Bono or our
:06:50. > :06:55.European partners and the US, possibly. It is about living within
:06:55. > :06:59.our means. We are spending far too much money compared to the tax
:06:59. > :07:06.revenue that we are bringing in. We are borrowing over �100 billion
:07:06. > :07:14.this year. That is unaffordable. If they deliver all of the savings
:07:14. > :07:18.they have promised, the size of the state will be as big as it was in
:07:18. > :07:24.2004 under does state minimalist called Gordon Brown and Tony Blair.
:07:24. > :07:28.This is not a radical agenda. It is quite simply about Good
:07:28. > :07:33.Housekeeping and ensuring that my's generation dinner have to repay the
:07:33. > :07:40.debts we have imposed to look beyond our means. Most British
:07:40. > :07:47.people understand the cuts are not endangering an H S, or the public
:07:47. > :07:52.services, they are the only way of saving them. Having looked at a
:07:52. > :07:58.series of charts reproduced by the IMF and the Guardian newspaper arm.
:07:58. > :08:02.A reporter looked at those figures, he said, if George Osborne gets his
:08:02. > :08:08.way in the next five years, Britain will have a smaller public sector
:08:08. > :08:17.than any other major developed nation. That conclusion is based on
:08:17. > :08:21.IMF figures. Is that what the British public wants? What the
:08:21. > :08:29.British public wants is for a nation to live within its means and
:08:29. > :08:33.not to be in a situation like Spain and Greece. That is the absolute
:08:33. > :08:38.emergency situation we have to address. What they want from the
:08:38. > :08:44.Conservative Party is not an anti- state party. We often give the
:08:44. > :08:49.impression we are against the state. That is dangerous. Margaret
:08:49. > :08:54.Thatcher, David Cameron, John Major based spent a lot of taxpayers'
:08:54. > :08:59.money. We should be proud that we have a health service that trees
:08:59. > :09:05.people regardless of their needs. We should be proud week had a good
:09:05. > :09:09.pension. We should be proud of that our people are looked after. That
:09:09. > :09:13.is not the situation at the moment. The situation at the moment is that
:09:13. > :09:18.many people who should be looking after themselves and their families
:09:18. > :09:25.have state benefits. During Gordon Brown's years, when the economy was
:09:25. > :09:30.strong, dependency was increased recklessly. Cutting back on Sark is
:09:30. > :09:35.this government's project. Not leaving the vulnerable to write
:09:35. > :09:45.Lene public services are on their own. Do you think it is right for
:09:45. > :09:50.conservatives to aim for a state which is smaller in the future then
:09:50. > :09:55.of the US? With all the indications that carries for what the State
:09:55. > :10:00.does for citizens. I am not in favour of artificial target.
:10:00. > :10:07.Forecasts are being proven wrong on a six-monthly basis. We don't know
:10:07. > :10:11.where will be from six-12 months. In a few defend the nature and the
:10:11. > :10:17.steep curve of austerity cuts that George Osborne has imposed, how
:10:17. > :10:27.does that match a desire to win over the blue-collar conservatives
:10:27. > :10:28.
:10:29. > :10:34.that you believe are out there? For example, if they seek, in the words
:10:34. > :10:39.of a leading disabled advocate, that families will be worse off
:10:39. > :10:43.under the reforms of the credit system, when they hear that, how we
:10:43. > :10:52.are convinced them that the Tory party is the party for those who
:10:52. > :10:55.are less well off, the less easily finding work in Britain today?
:10:55. > :11:00.British people think of the welfare state should be there for people
:11:00. > :11:04.who are genuinely in need. The top of the list for most people's
:11:04. > :11:14.criteria are people with disabilities. People are cannot
:11:14. > :11:24.look after themselves or who need help. That is not what we have with
:11:24. > :11:25.
:11:25. > :11:29.the well for a stay at the moment. -- welfare state. There are huge
:11:29. > :11:39.proportions of people who should be out there in the market place,
:11:39. > :11:42.
:11:42. > :11:49.looking after themselves. There have been accusations of some
:11:49. > :11:54.people being malingerers. People who endanger the safety net of
:11:54. > :11:58.those who are taking benefits they are not entitled to. We were only
:11:59. > :12:02.ensure public confidence in double for a state, which I saw it -- for
:12:02. > :12:07.the support, if we have gone through all the legitimate task to
:12:07. > :12:10.ensure those to are getting money from taxpayers, the blue-collar
:12:10. > :12:14.workers, who worked incredibly hard and who have to watch very
:12:14. > :12:19.carefully at the beginning of the mud rather than the end of the
:12:19. > :12:24.month, they need to know they have a government that is looking after
:12:24. > :12:28.their tax pounds and that those tax plans are going to people genuinely
:12:28. > :12:33.in need. That is what the government is doing. They would not
:12:33. > :12:41.get it right every time. It is your contention that you can have this
:12:41. > :12:51.compassionate conservatism with a pro active state and you can still
:12:51. > :12:55.stick to the fiscal hawkish stance that George Osborne has adopted.
:12:55. > :13:00.The government are very keen to look at how to break up the link
:13:00. > :13:05.between benefits and inflation. They believe it has to be done to
:13:05. > :13:10.save more money. That has been described by the head of Child
:13:10. > :13:17.Poverty Action Group as breaking a basic link with decency. Where do
:13:17. > :13:21.you sit on that argument? I will come back to that question. Part of
:13:21. > :13:26.the problem we have at the moment is that the generosity of the
:13:26. > :13:30.society is measured only in terms of how much the state spent. It is
:13:30. > :13:35.the nature of your question, it is the nature of Child Poverty Action
:13:35. > :13:42.Group's agenda. The most radical thing that Conservatives need to do,
:13:42. > :13:45.which is insured with most people, is to say the basis of a
:13:45. > :13:50.compassionate society is not how much the government spares but
:13:50. > :13:56.ensuring how strong families and every person has a good education
:13:56. > :14:00.and getting people into work. Our most important compassionate act is
:14:00. > :14:06.not the state bureaucrat, they are parents, teachers and job creators.
:14:06. > :14:10.That is what we must focus on. And why the government has to squeeze
:14:10. > :14:14.benefits at the moment is because everyone in work is having their
:14:14. > :14:24.pay frozen or cut at the moment. It is very hard for people to meet
:14:24. > :14:28.
:14:28. > :14:36.fence. -- maker and need. They are difficult decisions. I will pursue
:14:36. > :14:43.for a straight answer. We have to ensure the premiums that people get
:14:43. > :14:48.and the work that they do. What is the signal that East Stand at? Do
:14:48. > :14:54.you believe that they should no longer be inflation-proofing of
:14:54. > :15:00.benefits? Yes or Inu? Not all benefits. Pensioners have restored
:15:00. > :15:07.the link between pensions and average earnings. That is less than
:15:07. > :15:11.inflation. The generosity of his government to certain classes of
:15:11. > :15:19.benefit claimants is greater than the last Labour government. I am
:15:19. > :15:24.proud of that. There are certain classes, particularly those who
:15:24. > :15:28.live alongside someone who is going out to work for potentially at
:15:28. > :15:33.almost very little rewards compared to the person on benefits. That
:15:33. > :15:43.person should... That is a complicated answer for a simple
:15:43. > :15:47.Do you think the British public want a relationship between the
:15:47. > :15:52.citizen and the state, that it feels more like the relationship
:15:52. > :16:01.that we see in France and Germany, or the relationship that we see in
:16:01. > :16:07.the United States? I think the US as a welfare state for its
:16:07. > :16:13.provision for people in need is greater than in Europe. Really? How
:16:13. > :16:16.much time had be spent in America? Quite a bit of time. Some of these
:16:16. > :16:26.systems but that is directed towards families is greater than
:16:26. > :16:31.those in Europe. A lot of the American system is hidden, not just
:16:31. > :16:36.at federal level, but at state level and the local level as well.
:16:36. > :16:42.It is quite misunderstood. As a blue-collar conservative, if you
:16:42. > :16:45.had a vote in the forthcoming US presidential election, would you be
:16:45. > :16:55.casting their vote for President Obama or for the natural ally of
:16:55. > :16:56.
:16:56. > :17:00.the Conservative Party, Mitt Romney? Meet Romney. Would you? The
:17:00. > :17:05.clear majority of Conservatives today seem to back Obama over Mitt
:17:05. > :17:11.Romney, and seemed to be saying to themselves and the British people,
:17:11. > :17:14.we are not like Mitt Romney, who has a very dramatic, fiscally it
:17:14. > :17:19.hawkish view of slimming down expenditure. Most British
:17:19. > :17:23.Conservatives seem to say that they are not like that. I need to
:17:23. > :17:28.challenge the basis of your question. You seem to be suggesting
:17:28. > :17:32.that those people who want to cut the deficit are somehow the harsh
:17:32. > :17:40.people, and the people who want to keep on spending are the capacity
:17:40. > :17:45.at people. -- the compassionate. The people who did not want to
:17:45. > :17:49.bring the deficit under control, they are the people who will leave
:17:49. > :17:54.the country would deficit that will have to serve this for years to
:17:54. > :18:01.come. Interest payments, that is money that cannot be spent on
:18:01. > :18:05.hospitals, schools, the police service. Mitt Romney, George
:18:06. > :18:09.Osborne, David Cameron, we are not cutting because we somehow take a
:18:09. > :18:14.delight in having to make reductions, we are making these
:18:14. > :18:23.cuts in order to put the public finances in order, so we can
:18:23. > :18:30.protect and sustain services that need protecting. I find you take on
:18:30. > :18:33.one of the key issues, the size of the state, very interesting. Let's
:18:33. > :18:39.talk about who is delivering the policy. And maybe here the
:18:39. > :18:43.Conservatives had a problem. You have commented on the look and the
:18:43. > :18:48.sound of the leadership of the Conservative Party. It is dominated
:18:48. > :18:54.by people who either went to very posh public schools or to Oxbridge.
:18:54. > :19:00.Are they the right people and to be reaching out to the blue-collar
:19:00. > :19:04.Conservatives who you say are the key to the Party's future? Going
:19:05. > :19:12.back to our American parallel, you would not have a governor and a
:19:12. > :19:16.senator from Massachusetts, running for US Office, for the top ticket,
:19:16. > :19:23.you would have someone from a Southern state, someone from the
:19:23. > :19:26.Midwest. You would have balance to the ticket. There is something in
:19:26. > :19:32.the Conservative Party have been George Osborne and David Cameron as
:19:32. > :19:41.the two leading paces -- faces. It is not the party of John Major in
:19:41. > :19:50.1992. There was something special about what the Conservative Party
:19:50. > :19:54.had, in a leader who had gone from the wrong side of the tracks. I
:19:54. > :19:59.think it is harder, but if you look at the Mayor of London, another
:19:59. > :20:03.order Etonian, he has that sort of privileged background, and yet he
:20:03. > :20:09.has prospered in a city which traditionally votes Labour. He has
:20:09. > :20:14.won an election twice, in the middle of an austerity period. It
:20:14. > :20:19.is not impossible for somebody of a certain background to convince
:20:19. > :20:24.blue-collar Britain that they are on their side. It is interesting
:20:24. > :20:30.that you bring Boris Johnson into the conversation. You had said not
:20:30. > :20:36.long ago, if the choice is between David Cameron and Boris Johnson,
:20:36. > :20:44.the debate may looked irresistible. Is that where you stand, that for
:20:44. > :20:49.his best efforts, David Cameron is doomed? Do you think that Boris
:20:49. > :20:58.Johnson will have to be brought in at some point? This is the danger
:20:58. > :21:03.of writing hypothetical situations. My whole premise was the idea that
:21:03. > :21:09.David Cameron ends up being a catastrophic leader. We did not
:21:09. > :21:13.have to stretch too hard to imagine it coming true. My honest view is
:21:13. > :21:16.that we will struggle to win the next election but that David
:21:16. > :21:23.Cameron will be competitive. So he will not face a leadership
:21:23. > :21:29.challenge. I think his speech at the leadership conference was the
:21:29. > :21:34.best he has given as the leader. If he can keep going on that, he may
:21:34. > :21:38.well have a chance at the next election. If he wants to reach out
:21:38. > :21:44.to the strivers, and make good on the aspiration nation vision that
:21:44. > :21:50.he has painted, does he need to jettison some of the damaging
:21:50. > :21:55.baggage around him? I'm thinking of the position of his chief whip,
:21:55. > :22:01.Andrew Mitchell, who is accused by policemen of having caught there
:22:01. > :22:08.are word that I cannot use, and then plebs. He denies it. They said
:22:08. > :22:14.that he absolutely said it. It raises questions about his truth-
:22:14. > :22:18.telling, his relationship with the police. Should he resign? I think
:22:18. > :22:25.what happened at the Downing Street gates are disputed. He certainly
:22:25. > :22:32.acknowledges that he spoke... he has apologised to the police
:22:32. > :22:37.officer in question. Although it is an accusation, it is going to hang
:22:37. > :22:42.over the Conservative Party, and I come back to it, the party that can
:22:42. > :22:49.only win if it reaches out to the blue-collar people. The parts that
:22:49. > :22:53.are far away from London. Andrew Mitchell episode is not
:22:53. > :22:57.helpful, I am not going to deny that. But I do not think it is
:22:57. > :23:02.going to determine the next election. It will not be a
:23:02. > :23:06.referendum, it will be a choice, they will look at the Labour Party
:23:06. > :23:11.and they will say, who is fixing the deficit, who is keeping my tax
:23:11. > :23:16.bill under control, who is controlling our borders, those are
:23:16. > :23:19.the issues that would determine the next election. In comparison, I
:23:20. > :23:25.think David Cameron will stand in very good comparison with Ed
:23:25. > :23:31.Miliband. But the Andrew Mitchell Abersoch is not helpful. One other
:23:31. > :23:38.specific that you refer to quite a lot, in the website and in your
:23:38. > :23:43.speaking, is Europe. You seem to believe, that it is common ground
:23:43. > :23:47.in Britain to want to actively consider exiting the European Union.
:23:47. > :23:55.Are you sure that would be a wise direction for the Conservative
:23:55. > :24:01.Party to take? Europe is one of those issues that is often painted
:24:01. > :24:07.in the media as a right-wing issue. That actually, it is the common