:00:14. > :00:20.year-old Cuban revolutionary leader. Two years from now, the last NATO
:00:20. > :00:23.combat troops in Afghanistan will be preparing to leave. Is that
:00:23. > :00:26.something Afghans look forward to with confidence or a sense of
:00:26. > :00:29.dread? The challenge isn't just about security, but the country's
:00:29. > :00:33.political and economic future is also at stake. My guest today is
:00:33. > :00:36.the Deputy Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, Jawed Ludin. Does his
:00:36. > :00:46.government have a coherent strategy for delivering a stable, peaceful
:00:46. > :01:07.
:01:07. > :01:13.Jawed Ludin, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you. It's a pleasure to be
:01:13. > :01:19.with you. Are you aware of the intensity of the apprehension in
:01:19. > :01:24.Western capitals, as policy makers consider what is going to happen in
:01:24. > :01:29.your country as the transition continues and the NATO combat
:01:29. > :01:35.mission in Afghanistan comes to an end in 2014? Are you feeling that
:01:35. > :01:40.level of apprehension? absolutely do. It is as the deputy
:01:40. > :01:44.-- as the deputy Foreign Minister, it is part of my job to see what is
:01:44. > :01:51.happening and how people perceive Afghanistan. I travel quite a lot.
:01:51. > :01:55.What I can say on that account is that the transition is not in any
:01:55. > :01:58.way negative. The fact we are taking responsibility, that
:01:59. > :02:03.international troops will leave Afghanistan, is essentially the
:02:03. > :02:07.biggest strategic success we have achieved in the last ten years. The
:02:07. > :02:11.important things those people in the Western capitals should note is
:02:11. > :02:15.that so much has been achieved in the last ten years, including the
:02:15. > :02:19.fact that today there is a transition that is possible and
:02:19. > :02:28.Afghan security forces will take responsibility and that will allow
:02:28. > :02:33.international forces to lead. Continuation of this effort is
:02:33. > :02:37.important. -- forces to leave. Just by being responsible for defence
:02:37. > :02:42.and security of our country does not mean Afghanistan will not need
:02:42. > :02:46.continued support and partnership from the rest of the world.
:02:46. > :02:51.talk about the positives of the transition. I wonder, in the last
:02:51. > :02:56.few days, had he made time to read the International Crisis Group's
:02:56. > :03:02.report? They call it the long hard road to the 2014 transition. They
:03:02. > :03:07.say after 2014, there is, I am quoting, the real risk the regime
:03:07. > :03:11.in Kabul could collapse. I am quite unhappy about that report. I
:03:11. > :03:17.respect them quite a lot and they have done good work in the past but
:03:17. > :03:26.they have also done some very superficial, uninformed and perhaps
:03:26. > :03:31.ill-informed work. This particular report is one of those
:03:31. > :03:38.unfortunately low quality work. It does not really understand the
:03:38. > :03:42.depth of the transition. And it draws the absolutely worst possible
:03:42. > :03:47.conclusions. One could always speculate about all the things that
:03:47. > :03:52.could go wrong, rather than all of the things that are going in the
:03:52. > :03:58.right direction and could go better than expected. But in respect, it
:03:58. > :04:04.is not just one report. I could point U2 others. I suspect you read
:04:04. > :04:10.-- you read this one as well. One very highly respected decision-
:04:10. > :04:14.maker, one Republican, one Democrat. They are looking at the future of
:04:14. > :04:19.the country and they say the Afghan government is deeply flawed and
:04:19. > :04:26.should the world stop compensate him for its deficiencies it is in
:04:26. > :04:31.danger of imploding. Again, everybody who comes here can draw a
:04:31. > :04:37.conclusion and is totally entitled to that. I am not going to draw
:04:37. > :04:41.that conclusion and I will stick to my conclusion, to say that I, as an
:04:41. > :04:46.Afghan, have got this historical opportunity that did not exist ten
:04:46. > :04:51.years ago. We have made, in the last ten years, progress that has
:04:51. > :04:56.never been made in the history of Afghanistan before. These people,
:04:56. > :05:02.with absolute respect, I invite them to meet with the after a neat
:05:03. > :05:07.young people that I hear. 75% of this country is now under 25. Those
:05:07. > :05:15.people are not prepared to go back and will not allow it to slip back.
:05:15. > :05:22.We need some help. As I said, I tremendously respect this work but
:05:22. > :05:28.there is so much else that I could 0.2 and I think other people... I
:05:28. > :05:33.suggest you will other speak to. They would point to the good things
:05:33. > :05:38.happening. And these scenarios are the negative ones. We will get to
:05:38. > :05:41.the detail of what is going on in a minute. But it is just a question
:05:41. > :05:46.of being honest about what is actually happening in Afghanistan
:05:46. > :05:51.today. Your government relief to statement after the International
:05:51. > :05:55.crisis report, describing it as garbage and nonsense. One of your
:05:55. > :06:00.Independent Newspapers had an editorial a few days ago, saying
:06:00. > :06:05.the report actually gets much right. The government's denial, you'll
:06:05. > :06:10.government's denial, of the report is ridiculous and an embarrassment.
:06:10. > :06:14.Even Afghans themselves are sympathetic to the idea that there
:06:14. > :06:18.is right now in your country a fundamental question about whether,
:06:18. > :06:24.when NATO combat forces to withdraw, the country can hang together and
:06:24. > :06:29.can be stable. Wide and I hasten to say something, to recognise that
:06:29. > :06:36.challenges exist. A lot of the substance these people, the reports,
:06:36. > :06:42.0.2 do exist. They are factual. Basically, I am disputing their
:06:42. > :06:46.analysis. -- point to. They exist alongside other facts. And they are
:06:46. > :06:51.not necessarily negative. 2014 is a difficult and challenging time and
:06:51. > :06:55.we need to be prepared and have a strategy, and we do. The problem
:06:56. > :07:01.with the strategy is not that there is not a strategy but there are
:07:01. > :07:04.some elements of the strategy that are unknown. Whether the
:07:04. > :07:08.international community's commitment will remain strong,
:07:08. > :07:14.whether we will be able to get a peace process working with help
:07:14. > :07:19.from Pakistan, that is a big unknown. Whether some of the other
:07:19. > :07:24.elements will come together. But those elements could really go...
:07:24. > :07:27.These people suggest they will go in a negative direction but I think
:07:27. > :07:33.they will go in a positive direction. We have also seen some
:07:33. > :07:41.positives. Leads an picket theme by theme, issue by issue, challenge by
:07:41. > :07:45.a challenge. -- led us and pick it. Starting with security. When NATO
:07:45. > :07:49.troops complete the transition, 350,000 members of your own
:07:49. > :07:54.security forces will alter that we'd be responsible for ensuring
:07:54. > :07:59.the security of the citizens of your country. -- ultimately be
:07:59. > :08:04.responsible. It does not engender much confidence, when we see the
:08:04. > :08:09.dramatic rise, this year for example, in the so-called Green on
:08:09. > :08:16.blue attacks. The lack of a reliable, a disciplined, armed
:08:16. > :08:19.force which has led to the killings of so many NATO troops by your own
:08:20. > :08:29.forces. That has undermined confidence in the West, no doubt
:08:30. > :08:32.
:08:32. > :08:36.about it. Security... Security has actually, in some respects,
:08:36. > :08:40.deteriorated... Apart from the green on blue that he referred to,
:08:40. > :08:47.there are some other deeply discomforting friends we are seeing.
:08:47. > :08:53.An increase in suicide bombing in the last couple of years. The use
:08:53. > :08:59.of other tactics that target urban environments and basically grab a
:08:59. > :09:03.lot of media attention. That is another tactic. But fundamentally,
:09:03. > :09:09.the facts have not gone badly. They have gone in the right direction.
:09:09. > :09:15.In the south of Afghanistan, before the surge of the US forces took
:09:15. > :09:20.place, there were large strongholds of the Taliban. In Helmand province,
:09:20. > :09:26.where British troops still operate, most of that area was inaccessible
:09:26. > :09:31.to us, as Afghan officials. Today, Helmand province is moving on.
:09:31. > :09:38.There are some challenges but it has changed totally beyond
:09:38. > :09:42.recognition. The same has happened in Kandahar. But the green on Blue
:09:42. > :09:46.is also another mutation of the terrorist tactics. It's a rather
:09:46. > :09:49.sinister one and a difficult one. We totally recognise this could
:09:49. > :09:55.even be at the heart of this partnership between the Afghan
:09:55. > :09:59.security forces and NATO allies. That is why we have tried to
:09:59. > :10:04.address it aggressively and we are working together. You might have
:10:04. > :10:08.heard in recent weeks that there is some progress in terms of the
:10:08. > :10:14.measures we both have taken and hopefully these will be tackled.
:10:14. > :10:23.But this is not, as some have suggested, representing an
:10:23. > :10:27.unbridgeable cultural divide that people put this down to. Hang on. I
:10:27. > :10:31.appreciate the front this with which you say that in some ways the
:10:31. > :10:37.security situation is deteriorating. I wonder, as you make the
:10:37. > :10:41.preparations for 2014, how on earth you can convince your own Afghan
:10:41. > :10:44.citizens that their security is going to be in safe hands? For
:10:44. > :10:49.example, if one looks at the equipment your armed forces have,
:10:49. > :10:54.the lack of logistics, the lack of air transport, the lack of
:10:55. > :10:58.firepower, frankly, to safeguard your borders, giving you allege
:10:58. > :11:04.continued terrorist infiltration from the Pakistani border, given
:11:04. > :11:10.that this is all going to be your responsibility in 2014, how can you
:11:10. > :11:14.convince the people that Afghanistan will be secured?
:11:14. > :11:21.will need continued help to build these institutions further. But
:11:21. > :11:26.what I can tell you is that what we have today, in terms of our army
:11:27. > :11:34.and our police, and if you look at the nature of the threat that
:11:34. > :11:38.exists against Afghanistan, I can say for sure of that there will be
:11:39. > :11:44.able to take responsibility and the Afghan forces will secured the
:11:44. > :11:49.country. -- that we will be able to. The forces will do one important
:11:49. > :11:53.thing, that is to give a very deep sense of responsibility to the
:11:54. > :12:03.Afghan government and Afghan forces. The threat we have in this region,
:12:03. > :12:08.we do not face a frontal war with - - that these people can't tackle.
:12:08. > :12:11.We face the threat of infiltration. One thing we are doing to make
:12:11. > :12:17.transition sustainable is we are working to Pakistan's -- working
:12:17. > :12:21.with Pakistan to see if we can bring the Taliban to a peace
:12:21. > :12:26.process. Sorry to interrupt but let me be due upon that immediately.
:12:26. > :12:33.Are you talking to the Taliban right now? Is the Afghan government
:12:33. > :12:40.in negotiation with the Taliban? have contacts. But there is not a
:12:40. > :12:45.coherent process that involves direct negotiation about
:12:45. > :12:49.Afghanistan's future and the Taliban's political involvement in
:12:49. > :12:53.the peace process. That is yet to come. Pursuing this, there is a
:12:53. > :12:57.fundamental problem. Taliban leaders have made a claim not least
:12:57. > :13:01.to academics from a think tank who they spoke to in the summer, they
:13:01. > :13:06.said they would not conduct direct negotiations with the government
:13:06. > :13:10.led by Hamid Karzai. They describe him as utterly corrupt and week.
:13:10. > :13:16.They will talk to Afghan officials but they will not talk direct to
:13:16. > :13:21.Hamid Karzai and his government. That is a fundamental problem?
:13:21. > :13:29.can tell you that there are people who talk to us. The problem is that
:13:29. > :13:34.those people face a very sinister type of challenge, that is that
:13:34. > :13:38.they do not feel comfortable. They do not fill that a safe environment
:13:38. > :13:42.exists in places like Pakistan, where the leadership of the Taliban
:13:42. > :13:50.is based, where they could come out and basically be very open about
:13:50. > :13:54.the fact they are talking to us. Look, this peace process is not
:13:54. > :13:59.just government. That is why Hamid Karzai in dealing with this process
:13:59. > :14:04.has given responsibility to a group of very senior respectable Afghans
:14:04. > :14:09.who are making this Peace Council. The high Peace Council is leading
:14:09. > :14:14.the peace process on behalf of Afghanistan. But at the end of this,
:14:14. > :14:18.there is going to be a political understanding and the Taliban could
:14:18. > :14:25.be transformed from a military force into a political force. We
:14:25. > :14:29.need to talk, all of us, and it is not bad compared to a couple of
:14:29. > :14:33.years ago. We are engaging Pakistan extremely closely. There are other
:14:33. > :14:38.countries in the region helping us. What we really need is to continue
:14:38. > :14:42.this process and get that bit more help from countries in the region,
:14:42. > :14:47.in order to enable this direct face to face contact. This is the only
:14:47. > :14:52.thing that has not yet happened. When this comes, it will be a huge
:14:52. > :14:56.breakthrough. What you also need is to undermine the Taliban's central
:14:56. > :15:01.critique of your government, being that it is utterly corrupt and
:15:01. > :15:07.dishonest, by proving that you can operate with integrity? I wonder if,
:15:07. > :15:12.in that context, whether Hamid Karzai as President is helpful all
:15:12. > :15:16.part of the problem? If he will that the record of Hamid Karzai and
:15:16. > :15:20.the key people around him over the last decade, it is one of
:15:20. > :15:30.consistently and completely failing to stamp out the rampant corruption
:15:30. > :15:31.
:15:31. > :15:40.I will be grateful if you do not give the Taliban the credit for
:15:40. > :15:50.something... A legitimate critique... The current government
:15:50. > :15:50.
:15:50. > :15:57.has challengeds, no question about it. -- challenges. Corruption is a
:15:57. > :16:03.huge issue. The government is partly to blame for that. The
:16:04. > :16:07.Taliban has their own record to show to the Afghan people. It would
:16:07. > :16:14.be wrong to look at it in that sense, that corruption will stop
:16:14. > :16:20.them from coming in. What stops them from coming in is the fact
:16:20. > :16:27.that they are enmeshed in a regional and Ivan international
:16:27. > :16:34.infrastructure that supports extremism and terrorism. -- and
:16:34. > :16:39.even. The Taliban do not have an independent view of their own.
:16:39. > :16:45.Those who do have a view of their own are in contact with us. As a
:16:45. > :16:55.group, as a movement, as a political or military entity, it
:16:55. > :16:57.
:16:57. > :17:03.does not have to claim credit... On the question of corruption,
:17:03. > :17:09.corruption has been a challenge from day one. We have to discuss
:17:09. > :17:18.why it happened. In a country like Afghanistan, absolutely no
:17:18. > :17:22.governing institutions to perform their duties... Suddenly gets
:17:22. > :17:28.flooded with international assistance and all that. There are
:17:28. > :17:32.things that go wrong. We have done a lot of work. The recent
:17:32. > :17:40.conference focused on this question. We have taken it extremely
:17:40. > :17:47.seriously. There has been a degree focusing on corruption and
:17:47. > :17:57.reforming the government. He has issued such decrees before, he has
:17:57. > :17:57.
:17:57. > :18:07.made comments about zero Cologne's for corruption. -- 0 Torrance. He
:18:07. > :18:09.
:18:09. > :18:15.is going to be questioned again by the international community about
:18:15. > :18:22.his commitment to free and fair elections and democracy. -- zero
:18:22. > :18:25.tolerance. Can you tell me that Hamid Karzai will step down in the
:18:25. > :18:30.spring of 2014, there is no question at all he will try and
:18:30. > :18:37.extend his mandate? He will be gone? There will be free and fair
:18:37. > :18:42.elections then? Hamid Karzai will be tested, the government will be
:18:42. > :18:48.tested, but it will be tested by the Afghan people. It is an
:18:48. > :18:51.obligation we owed to them rather than others. To defend the
:18:51. > :18:57.international community, it is supporting this transformation of
:18:57. > :19:02.Afghanistan. We owe this to them as well. We need to say this is not
:19:02. > :19:09.just a transaction between Afghanistan in the international
:19:09. > :19:14.community. There is a whole area of Sheri... We do not have much time.
:19:14. > :19:18.Please address my main point. There is a clear and absolute commitment
:19:18. > :19:23.for Hamid Karzai stepping down and making sure the election is free
:19:23. > :19:29.and fair. It would be good to listen to what Hamid Karzai has
:19:29. > :19:36.said. He has said that he is not standing. There is no factual,
:19:36. > :19:42.concrete evidence showing that is not the case. If there is, let's
:19:42. > :19:51.see it. Let's take it as it is. We can give him the benefit of the
:19:51. > :19:56.doubt. On the elections, in the last couple of months we have seen
:19:56. > :20:06.some real concrete steps. The election commission announced the
:20:06. > :20:10.
:20:10. > :20:17.date of the elections. This is the time frame, 1.5 years, it will
:20:17. > :20:19.happen. Do you think it is acceptable that the members of the
:20:19. > :20:24.supposedly independent Electoral Commission are appointed by the
:20:25. > :20:34.President himself? It is a constitutional thing. The
:20:35. > :20:35.
:20:35. > :20:38.constitution and -- says so. I do not think an individual could
:20:38. > :20:43.single-handedly be blamed for something published in the
:20:43. > :20:48.constitution. This gets to the very heart of the argument I'm having
:20:48. > :20:54.with you. Whether Hamid Karzai is the right guy to make sure the
:20:54. > :20:59.transition works effectively. Hamid Karzai, within his grasp he has the
:20:59. > :21:03.power to appoint all of the ministers, all of the judges, all
:21:03. > :21:07.of the governors, all of the commissioners on the Human Rights
:21:07. > :21:12.Commission, all of the members of the human rights commission, all of
:21:12. > :21:17.the powers are with him. There are many Afghans who fear that if he
:21:17. > :21:24.does not actually decide to put the election that he will ensure, to
:21:24. > :21:27.coin the phrase, that he manipulates the deck of cards to
:21:27. > :21:33.ensure that one of his favoured candidates gets the job. Possibly
:21:33. > :21:39.his brother. Are you sure that is not going to happen? We are talking
:21:39. > :21:43.about a hypothesis. Hamid Karzai has said one thing, all the
:21:43. > :21:50.questions you are asking our general questions, but why not?
:21:50. > :21:54.Hamid Karzai could argue that he has been in Afghanistan for the
:21:54. > :22:01.last 11 years and he has brought it... There are definitely
:22:01. > :22:07.shortcomings but there are also successes. He says having a
:22:07. > :22:12.transparent, inclusive, free and fair elections is his last legacy.
:22:12. > :22:18.If you put yourself in his shoes, you can see the longer term
:22:18. > :22:22.prospects in delivering a good election. A general election.
:22:23. > :22:32.Especially learning lessons from the past and thinking about the
:22:32. > :22:40.country's long-term interest. I think these issues are being a bit
:22:40. > :22:44.negative... I do not need to be pessimistic, but I do need to be
:22:44. > :22:48.realistic. This is my last realistic question. Just imagine
:22:48. > :22:54.the next two years the transition does not go as well as you thought
:22:54. > :22:59.it would. We have talked about the Taliban, corruption, the security
:22:59. > :23:04.situation, the Hamid Karzai factor. If things do not go as well as you
:23:04. > :23:09.hope they do, do you believe the US, UK and other NATO forces me to
:23:09. > :23:15.reconsider their commitment to pull out combat troops if the context is
:23:15. > :23:20.one of deep instability, even chaos? Should that be a non
:23:20. > :23:25.negotiable pull-out? May it have to be rethought? I think the end of
:23:25. > :23:29.the current mission is a good thing. I do not think in every scenario
:23:29. > :23:39.you consider that it would be advisable for this existing mission,
:23:39. > :23:39.
:23:39. > :23:47.the presence of NATO and US troops will be advisable to continue. I
:23:47. > :23:52.think if we implement the building up of the Afghans over the next two
:23:52. > :24:01.years, more political weight behind the peace process, those two will
:24:01. > :24:07.ensure stability. One thing is the continued military presence of the
:24:07. > :24:12.US and perhaps others is a good thing in the capacity of training.
:24:12. > :24:21.That is why we are going to begin negotiations with the US about