:00:18. > :00:23.Hospital. Up next it is time for HARDtalk. Man man was one of
:00:23. > :00:29.Russia's best and brightest. -- Sergei Guriev. Well connected to
:00:29. > :00:35.the Russian political the lead. He was a strong voice for economic
:00:35. > :00:41.liberalisation and a Russian patriot. But as so many pages, he
:00:41. > :00:51.decided to go into exile. Why? And what does it tell us about the true
:00:51. > :01:12.
:01:12. > :01:18.Sergei Guriev, a warm-up welcome to HARDtalk. Why did you decide to
:01:18. > :01:25.leave the country you clearly love? I do love Russia and I've tried to
:01:25. > :01:28.develop Russian education and the economic profession. Yet I felt
:01:29. > :01:38.that I was facing the risk of losing in freedom in Russia. That
:01:39. > :01:41.
:01:41. > :01:45.was connected to my own weakness in the Mikhail Khodorkovsky case. I
:01:46. > :01:53.wrote a request to the then President and the Council of Human
:01:53. > :02:02.Rights. I saw the investigation of Mikhail Khodorkovsky was going in
:02:02. > :02:06.the direction whereby I would lose my freedom to travel. Mikhail
:02:06. > :02:11.Khodorkovsky is in charge after to court processes. They may be a
:02:11. > :02:18.third. In terms of view and the fruits you felt, what was actually
:02:18. > :02:21.happening to you. -- the threats. In February, I got summoned to
:02:21. > :02:25.interrogations and there were questions - I cannot tell you what
:02:25. > :02:33.they were because I signed a non- disclosure agreement - but they
:02:33. > :02:37.were related to that. The verdict for Mikhail Khodorkovsky and as an
:02:37. > :02:44.economist I wrote to the evolution of the case and I said there was no
:02:44. > :02:50.case. Any economist who reads the second verdict would agree with me.
:02:50. > :02:56.Then, I had a couple of more interrogations. I submitted the
:02:57. > :03:03.local document. I responded to questions of investigators and then
:03:03. > :03:06.the investigation took a turn for the worse when, at the end of April,
:03:06. > :03:10.they asked for another interrogation and in this case in
:03:10. > :03:18.my office but instead of an interrogation they came with a
:03:18. > :03:25.court warrant to take away five years of my e-mail. Five years!
:03:26. > :03:32.That is actually a good question why it five years. Any idea?They
:03:32. > :03:36.mentioned to one of my friends that that is because they believed that
:03:36. > :03:41.since 2008 I had been involved in political activity. What ever that
:03:41. > :03:46.means. That is not illegal in Russia - it may be unwise but it is
:03:46. > :03:50.not illegal. That is a good question. But that is what they
:03:50. > :03:57.said. They came with the search warrant for my office and they also
:03:57. > :04:01.had one for my home or hinted at it. The grounds on which they took away
:04:01. > :04:11.my e-mails and produced a search warrant for my office were
:04:11. > :04:13.
:04:13. > :04:19.completely absorbed. Absorb -- absurd. The second thing which
:04:19. > :04:23.worried me, electronic mail in a Russia is protected by constitution
:04:23. > :04:30.as private correspondence so you need a court judge to sign this.
:04:30. > :04:34.What I saw in that warrant was that the judge rubber-stamped what the
:04:34. > :04:40.investigate or asked. That worried the again. If they needed something
:04:41. > :04:44.else to be signed, probably the judge would sign it as well. Were
:04:44. > :04:49.you not reassured by Vladimir Putin who is quoted as saying you had
:04:49. > :04:56.nothing to fear. He said, if he has not made any transgression of the
:04:56. > :04:59.law, nothing friends the 100%. exactly. This is the third thing
:05:00. > :05:04.which worried me so much. That allows me to come to the
:05:04. > :05:08.interrogation but instead they did this. The next meeting would be
:05:08. > :05:14.something worse and something worse - what could be worse than a surge
:05:15. > :05:20.of your home and house? Probably take you weigh your passport and
:05:20. > :05:24.something else. Vladimir Putin was right, I had not transgress the law,
:05:25. > :05:32.a done any I had not done anything wrong. All that happen with me
:05:32. > :05:35.being a witness in the Khodorkovsky affair. I was just a witness and
:05:35. > :05:40.yet something like that could happen. We should make clear that
:05:40. > :05:45.at that time one of the reasons you were worried is that your wife and
:05:45. > :05:49.children were in Paris. Your wife has always said you, actually, you
:05:49. > :05:58.need to get out because she thought something like this would happen.
:05:59. > :06:04.She was right? She is an economic that a cat and this - academic and
:06:04. > :06:09.she's very smart. Maybe she was smarter than you about it.
:06:09. > :06:17.optimism was probably wasn't less ground and then her realism or
:06:17. > :06:21.pessimism. She turned out to be right. What also worried me was
:06:21. > :06:27.that might cross-border movement were monitored by ace ensure...
:06:27. > :06:33.Through a special regime. Other things were happening to me. It
:06:33. > :06:39.turns out that other people's movements were monitored. She was
:06:39. > :06:43.not in any way involved in it the Khodorkovsky affair. In any way.
:06:43. > :06:50.That gets the thing related to other things we had done together
:06:50. > :06:57.recently. Talking about Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He's a very rich man,
:06:57. > :07:01.and oligarch, he is in jail. He used to run a oil company. You
:07:01. > :07:05.commented on the second trial. The Moscow Times says that
:07:05. > :07:09.investigators believed the authors of the report, of which you were
:07:09. > :07:17.one, had a conflict of interest because they allege that Mikhail
:07:18. > :07:23.Khodorkovsky paid money for it. What are your thoughts was made
:07:23. > :07:28.that is a verifiable - verifiable fact that have never been paid by
:07:28. > :07:34.Mikhail Khodorkovsky or his partners. He's going to get the
:07:34. > :07:40.$50,000 for a school ten years ago. I was not sabbatical at Preston, I
:07:40. > :07:48.was not paid by the economic school, I never saw a rule of this money. -
:07:48. > :07:55.- Princeton. They never been paid by Mikhail Khodorkovsky. This
:07:55. > :08:00.donation happened ten years ago. I wrote the report in 2011 when
:08:00. > :08:07.Mikhail Khodorkovsky had already spent years in jail. It is so clear
:08:07. > :08:11.that I am sure any economist who reads this case would agree with me.
:08:11. > :08:17.Other incomers and lawyers who have read it have agreed with me.
:08:17. > :08:23.Usain the law we used to persecute Mikhail Khodorkovsky - isn't that
:08:23. > :08:30.simple? They could have been some case but the verdict had no proof
:08:30. > :08:36.of guilt. What you say there is an economic analyst he said you sudden
:08:36. > :08:40.departure is an attempt by seven oligarchs to undermine Putin. Not
:08:40. > :08:48.direct revolution but for Putin to return for a third term. This
:08:49. > :08:55.suspicion that you and meddling in politics. I have never been or
:08:55. > :09:02.tried to effect Putin's ability to stand for presidential election. I
:09:02. > :09:10.am not a great Cardinal of Russian politics. As I have been accused of
:09:10. > :09:14.being. When I left Russia, he said a few things, some of these things
:09:14. > :09:18.I have heard from investigators. Some of these things like the one
:09:18. > :09:22.you mention I have not heard from investigators which makes me
:09:22. > :09:27.believe he has some contexts with the investigators and therefore he
:09:28. > :09:32.can read their minds and therefore I can expect what they would have
:09:32. > :09:36.asked me in the next interrogation. These things do not sound nice. In
:09:36. > :09:42.that sense, I am happy that I am in a different country because I do
:09:42. > :09:47.not want to discuss questions whether I tried to undermined
:09:47. > :09:55.Putin's electoral process. sounds like you're saying they're
:09:55. > :10:01.trying to know you? A not seen the formal allegations. The formal
:10:01. > :10:05.indictment. I have not seen any formal charges. But indeed, I have
:10:05. > :10:10.seen that miss the mark of his talking the same language as the
:10:10. > :10:16.investigators. One other thing that has come out, and I would like you
:10:16. > :10:23.to address these - you gave it a small donation to a well-known man
:10:23. > :10:32.and regarded by some people as a troublemaker. I am not sure on
:10:32. > :10:39.which grounds you say he wants Mr Putin to end up in jail. This is
:10:39. > :10:44.exactly why I mention my wife. We did donate some money to a donation
:10:44. > :10:49.to fight corruption. It is important that political activist
:10:49. > :10:52.like him, anti-corruption blockers can raise money publicly,
:10:52. > :10:58.transparently and it is a small amount of money. I am not a rich
:10:58. > :11:03.man. We do not give much money by we thought it was reasonable. I
:11:03. > :11:08.continue to stand by that action. I think we need the right thing. I do
:11:08. > :11:12.not share all of his views but I think it is important that all
:11:12. > :11:17.people who fight corruption can and should be allowed to raise funds
:11:17. > :11:27.through the public. That is the only political statement my wife
:11:27. > :11:29.
:11:29. > :11:36.made in Russia. Border offices in Russia may be related this. I
:11:36. > :11:41.received something about these also. He describes the United Party as a
:11:41. > :11:45.party of crooks and thieves. He may be right or wrong but to be
:11:45. > :11:52.associated with someone like that in Russia today by be difficult?
:11:53. > :11:57.got a telephone call in May, already after I had left Russia,
:11:57. > :12:01.before I announced I was not returning - I received a telephone
:12:01. > :12:06.call from someone who is a friend and who had not been informed I had
:12:06. > :12:10.left Russia but he was very well connected. He told me I could not
:12:10. > :12:16.come back to Russia because there is a special operation against
:12:16. > :12:22.people like myself and people who supported him publicly. That person
:12:22. > :12:27.was probably thinking along similar lines. To the wider aspect.
:12:27. > :12:35.Russia's role in the world and its ease with itself. Many years after
:12:35. > :12:41.the Cold War. One recent survey, it showed a 30% of 18 - 35-year-olds
:12:41. > :12:45.in Russia want to leave the country. If you have people who want to
:12:45. > :12:50.leave, they do not see a great economic future. I would like
:12:50. > :12:55.Russia to prosper and I'm sure that Russia will be prosperous and free
:12:55. > :13:02.and a democratic country. What these people worry about is that
:13:02. > :13:09.the transition to this European or democratic war three future will
:13:09. > :13:13.not be easy. It will probably be turbulent. These people worry about
:13:13. > :13:20.these things. But I'm sure that Russia will become a normal, free
:13:20. > :13:25.and prosperous. That optimism does not seem to be shared by the former
:13:25. > :13:31.deputy prime minister who has resigned. He said at the LSE in
:13:32. > :13:40.London that he would have to get out of the paradigm of Military
:13:40. > :13:47.Knight -- might. There are some pretty grim forecasts. I tend to
:13:47. > :13:51.disagree with him on many things but with this one I agree.
:13:51. > :13:58.Countries do not disappear. They may go bankrupt. Greece has gone
:13:58. > :14:07.bankrupt. Greece still exists. I think Russia will lose time,
:14:07. > :14:12.generations of talent, if it does not arrive at this stage where
:14:12. > :14:17.ideas are more important then military might. Russia can move to
:14:17. > :14:23.prosperity and freedom faster but eventually it will get there.
:14:23. > :14:29.Usain this is a fork in the road - you can choose the military might
:14:29. > :14:33.and not a great economy or increasing liberalisation. That is
:14:33. > :14:39.not what Mr Putin has been saying. He says that they need more
:14:39. > :14:45.discipline in the economy. If you study Mr Pidgeon's speeches for the
:14:45. > :14:52.15 years he has been running Russia. -- Putin, you will find in the
:14:52. > :14:57.statement you can find. He supported liberalisation, this it
:14:57. > :15:04.learnt, West Indies, anti-Western views. You can fight any paradigm.
:15:04. > :15:10.There is something at the deeds and not words, you see that Russia is
:15:10. > :15:20.becoming more inward-looking, less free, less integrate - less global.
:15:20. > :15:21.
:15:21. > :15:31.That sounds like Russia is not following the views expressed in
:15:31. > :15:41.
:15:41. > :15:44.Foreign investment is not working. Cash outflow remained high. Last
:15:44. > :15:49.year, $49 billion of Russian money came out of the country. None of
:15:49. > :15:55.that is good for the economy. not just Russian money coming art
:15:55. > :16:04.of the country. Unit capital flow. Back there is more Russian net
:16:04. > :16:12.money coming back from Russians. The difference is $1 billion. That
:16:12. > :16:15.is a huge amount. The reason for that is investors... These are not
:16:15. > :16:19.investors who want the BBC or read the Financial Times he read
:16:19. > :16:25.negative news about Russia but might they see that investment in
:16:25. > :16:30.Russia is. Working out very well. The property rights are not as good
:16:30. > :16:36.as they should have been. Competition is protected. They are
:16:36. > :16:40.worried about the rules of the game. There is another indicator. The
:16:40. > :16:45.stock market. If you look at how much Gazprom is worth and how much
:16:45. > :16:51.the gas index is worth, Russia is behind other imaging market
:16:51. > :17:00.economies by a factor of two or three. It is a huge vote of no
:17:00. > :17:06.confidence by investors into Russian economic might. With the
:17:06. > :17:16.walls of the game, the rules of law, it is important with investors.
:17:16. > :17:17.
:17:17. > :17:22.Transparency puts Russia at 133 on a corruption index. It is doing
:17:22. > :17:28.terribly. Those sort of thing this make it difficult on how the
:17:28. > :17:32.Russian economy can modernise. Investors make economic decisions
:17:32. > :17:41.involving millions of dollars. For them, making the decision on an
:17:41. > :17:45.isolated case or the corruption index, that is not how it works.
:17:45. > :17:51.Every investor thinks about investing in this part of Russia.
:17:51. > :17:56.There, we have a good governor with good infrastructure. It has a
:17:56. > :18:00.qualified labour force. It is more complicated than that. Of course
:18:01. > :18:05.investors worry about these things. If you ask investors whether they
:18:05. > :18:11.are happy about Russia, do look at the revealed preference in the
:18:11. > :18:16.economics. The rate of best foot. More money is leaving Russia the
:18:16. > :18:24.coming year to Russia. The price of Russian assets is no. Investors are
:18:24. > :18:29.unhappy about that. Do you discuss with other people like the
:18:29. > :18:34.President or Putin -- they are not stupid people... They want to see
:18:34. > :18:43.the best for the Russia. That's it good question. I am sure the
:18:43. > :18:52.government understands that. His Putin follows his election promises,
:18:52. > :19:02.all of these problems that are recognised, acknowledged,... There
:19:02. > :19:04.
:19:04. > :19:14.are plans. Russia will become number 50 and the reply closes 15th
:19:14. > :19:15.
:19:15. > :19:19.and 20... Top 20 in terms of He recognises that. He makes no
:19:19. > :19:29.promises. So far, investors are not sure if he promises will be
:19:29. > :19:30.
:19:30. > :19:36.implemented. Why is that? You have accepted that they want the best
:19:36. > :19:44.for Russia. As they see it.It may not be the best for Russia as you
:19:44. > :19:53.see it. They understand the nature of the problem. They know this.
:19:53. > :20:01.Until I left, I cannot feel any worry for risk of speaking up. As I
:20:01. > :20:05.speak freely with you today, talking up in open meetings or
:20:05. > :20:11.closed doors meetings about the issue, everyone is informed about
:20:11. > :20:16.this in Russia. When you look at trade-offs, you think that
:20:16. > :20:22.discipline is needed. Then using go back economic growth. Sometimes you
:20:22. > :20:27.preferred discipline. It is linked to political stability and
:20:27. > :20:36.proliferation of the regime. You choose that only economic growth
:20:36. > :20:42.and innovation. -- over. White did not you stay and fight? You could
:20:42. > :20:49.have stayed and fought this. You have an important was within Russia.
:20:49. > :20:54.I stayed and fought. They thought it was a substantial risk for me. I
:20:54. > :21:00.can give you another piece of conversation with the investigator.
:21:00. > :21:06.That was not part of my disclosure agreement. Before the interrogation
:21:06. > :21:11.was started, I said, would you are doing to me is illegal. You do come
:21:11. > :21:16.and you brought prefers to be false evidence and you know that. He said,
:21:16. > :21:20.you should not complain. Other people faced more difficult times
:21:20. > :21:25.in Soviet times. The country is different. I should feel more
:21:26. > :21:33.confident about my freedoms. And he hinted that I should still filled
:21:33. > :21:43.about the suffering. -- think about the suffering. Do you see yourself
:21:43. > :21:45.
:21:45. > :21:53.as what we called a dissident? These were much braver people. by
:21:53. > :22:03.not as brave. I decided not to stay. In the 'New York Times', you said,
:22:03. > :22:07.
:22:07. > :22:12.your plight is like having a rare disease. I supported Navalny. This
:22:12. > :22:17.is an increased risk of contracting a disease in modern Russia. At that
:22:17. > :22:27.point back, I thought, I can take the risk. When you think about
:22:27. > :22:28.
:22:28. > :22:36.other people, if you do not want to contract the disease, do not touch
:22:36. > :22:40.Navalny. Do not speak publicly. Once you have contracted the
:22:40. > :22:46.disease, you think about good therapy to use. My therapy is to be
:22:46. > :22:52.in a different country. Would you go back? When it this appears, I
:22:53. > :22:57.will go back. It is a long time ahead. -- when it disappears.
:22:57. > :23:02.Russia changes in unpredictable ways. The Soviet Union was forever.
:23:02. > :23:12.But five years ago, it was sure. Everybody knew that the Soviet
:23:12. > :23:13.
:23:13. > :23:21.Union was forever. But now it is not. You are an adviser to Navalny
:23:21. > :23:26.now. He is an honest and brave man. He actually knows that he may end
:23:26. > :23:34.up in jail but he bravely goes ahead. When he sits in the
:23:34. > :23:39.courtroom, in a completely made, and asks me to help with advice, I