:00:00. > :00:16.the party's finances. You are up to date. It is
:00:16. > :00:18.for HARDtalk. Welcome to HARDtalk. The Obama
:00:18. > :00:27.Assad forces carried out the Assad
:00:27. > :00:31.kills nearly 1500 people in Syria. What is not certain is how America
:00:31. > :00:37.will respond. Resident Obama is trying to convince his country and
:00:37. > :00:41.the international community that military action is needed. But what
:00:41. > :00:43.is he trying to sell? He says there may be merit in the Russian proposal
:00:44. > :00:48.that President Assad puts his that President Assad puts his
:00:48. > :00:53.chemical weapons under international supervision. My guest is PJ Crowley,
:00:53. > :01:07.former Secretary of State for public affairs. Has this eroded the bomb's
:01:07. > :01:40.PJ Crowley, welcome to HARDtalk. I put it to you that Obama's policy on
:01:40. > :01:41.Syria has been marked by isolation. He has been leading from behind,
:01:41. > :01:50.frankly. The president's policy frankly. The president's policy is
:01:50. > :01:53.very difficult. He has been frankly. The president's policy is
:01:53. > :01:59.reluctant to get involved militarily in Syria in the same way that he did
:01:59. > :02:06.in Libya. Part of the dilemma for the White House is that you have
:02:06. > :02:12.ideal conditions. You had a Security Council resolution authorising the
:02:12. > :02:15.use of force. You had an Arab League invitation to intervene. You had
:02:15. > :02:22.willing partners, Britain, France and others. People to carry out the
:02:22. > :02:31.mission. None of those conditions exist in the context of Syria. There
:02:31. > :02:32.is the overhang of Iraq. It clouds not only what the President is
:02:32. > :02:34.trying to do, but the political trying to do, but the political
:02:34. > :02:42.reaction at home and overseas. does not mean Obama has responded to
:02:42. > :02:55.out military strikes, now he says he the uncertainty by bringing greater
:02:55. > :03:00.out military strikes, now he says he would carry out a congressional
:03:00. > :03:03.vote. Now he has suspended the vote. There is a difficult dynamic between
:03:03. > :03:14.how you communicate politically and how you communicate politically and
:03:14. > :03:17.home —— at home and how you communicate internationally. There
:03:17. > :03:20.has been a mixed message that is part of this. On the one hand you
:03:20. > :03:23.are trying to change Assad's are trying to change Assad's
:03:23. > :03:29.calculations on the use of chemical weapons, but you also say it is
:03:29. > :03:36.unbelievably small. I think that sweet spot has been difficult. The
:03:36. > :03:38.White House can be faulted for the process leading to these decisions
:03:38. > :03:48.that allowed the rhetoric about the Red Line to get ahead of its
:03:48. > :03:55.decision—making process. How can it be faulted? How are you pointing the
:03:55. > :03:59.finger at the White House? I would say that if the President needed to
:03:59. > :04:03.take a walk to think through his strategy, he would need to do it
:04:03. > :04:06.immediately after the British immediately after the British
:04:06. > :04:17.Parliament vote, rather than after sending John Kerry out. He met an
:04:17. > :04:18.indictment of Assad. This brings up the disconnect in the White House's
:04:18. > :04:28.messaging. On the one hand, Assad has been compared to Adolf Hitler.
:04:28. > :04:32.On the other hand, you're advocating On the other hand, you're
:04:32. > :04:42.militarily pushing Assad from power. duration. For a purpose that is
:04:42. > :04:43.militarily pushing Assad from power. The reaction has been next. —— next.
:04:43. > :04:52.proposal, there are many thinking that we should give diplomacy a
:04:52. > :05:06.chance been next. It has actually been
:05:06. > :05:11.critical of the White House. A Vietnam veteran and former
:05:11. > :05:12.commandant of the US Army College of warm says that leaders, military
:05:12. > :05:18.leaders are embarrassed leaders are embarrassed to be
:05:18. > :05:21.associated with the amateurism of the administration's attempts to
:05:21. > :05:29.graft a plan that makes strategic sense. Are you embarrassed by
:05:29. > :05:32.administration used to serve? I know this man quite well. I believe in
:05:32. > :05:39.this case that he is wrong. We, the this case that he is wrong. We, the
:05:39. > :05:46.United States, have had this trouble for a long time of how to use
:05:46. > :05:53.military force for something that is limited and not about all—out war.
:05:53. > :06:00.How do you communicate about the use of force when the objective is
:06:00. > :06:05.success but not victory? That is the dilemma that the White House finds
:06:05. > :06:11.itself. When you go back to Kosovo in the 1990s, that is the same
:06:11. > :06:19.dilemma. In this particular case, the White House's strategy is quite
:06:19. > :06:23.coherent. The policy is containment. The president says his not want to
:06:23. > :06:30.own Syria in the same way the United States and Iraq. He is trying to use
:06:30. > :06:39.military force to create a political solution. Obviously, this is a very
:06:39. > :06:40.difficult thing to achieve. He is trying to make that hard sell, as
:06:40. > :06:44.you say. He is military strikes on Syria, there
:06:44. > :06:50.American people that if we carry out military strikes on Syria, there
:06:50. > :06:56.justification. Assad has used has given three pillars
:06:56. > :06:57.justification. Assad has used chemical weapons and kills nearly
:06:57. > :07:08.1500 people. He also says that 1500 people. He also
:07:08. > :07:10.humanitarian moral reasons. Also because action would be in
:07:10. > :07:12.America's national—security interests. Let us look
:07:12. > :07:25.weapons attack, he has to give one, the violation of international
:07:25. > :07:27.weapons attack, he has to give diplomacy a chance. He cannot talk
:07:27. > :07:35.about military strikes in the same breath, can he? It is not that the
:07:35. > :07:38.international community, including the United States, has ignored
:07:38. > :07:40.diplomacy for the past couple of years. There is the Geneva process.
:07:40. > :07:47.To some extent, that has been To some extent, that has been
:07:47. > :07:50.cynically manipulated by Russia and China. Vladimir Putin at the G20
:07:50. > :07:54.conference said that you cannot use conference said that you cannot use
:07:55. > :08:00.force without Security Council authorisation, and then Russia has
:08:00. > :08:02.done everything in its power to block a resolution that would give
:08:02. > :08:05.the international community the the international community the same
:08:05. > :08:11.kind of mental role in Syria that it had in Libya. —— meaningful.
:08:11. > :08:19.Obviously, the Geneva process has been stalled. We will see if this
:08:19. > :08:27.comments by Obama at the G20 comments by Obama at the G20
:08:27. > :08:32.yesterday, unlocks the political process. The President will have to
:08:32. > :08:37.test the Russian resolution. And see if Syria will respond and allow
:08:37. > :08:46.international control of these weapons. Are the Russians not
:08:46. > :08:58.looking more like statesmen? John Kerry made the remark that Syria
:08:58. > :09:02.could suspend the weapons, and then the foreign department said that was
:09:02. > :09:10.just an off the cuff statement. just an off the cuff statement. Is
:09:10. > :09:13.that a mature way of making foreign policy? In fact, if Syria were to
:09:13. > :09:34.one. But the administration's policy policy? In fact, if Syria were to
:09:34. > :09:34.this war of in a way that that would escalate the conflict. This is a
:09:35. > :09:44.sound policy proposal. The sound policy proposal. The
:09:44. > :09:56.Russians... Whose idea was it? Why didn't the Americans had once it
:09:56. > :09:58.properly? —— advance. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Laffer,
:09:58. > :10:07.says that we are going to run with this. They are now tabling a
:10:07. > :10:13.resolution. Whose ideas it? That is a good question. The interviews say
:10:13. > :10:17.that the president discussed this idea with Vladimir Putin. And now
:10:17. > :10:24.the public proposal followed. I do the public proposal followed. I do
:10:24. > :10:31.think that this provides the possibility for the kind of
:10:31. > :10:36.political solution that everybody has said is needed. Even the United
:10:36. > :10:40.States proposing a limited military strike has said that that there is
:10:40. > :10:45.not a military solution, only a political solution. The United
:10:45. > :10:49.States is focused on the deaths of States is focused on the deaths of
:10:49. > :10:54.roughly 1500 people due to chemical weapons. This does not address the
:10:54. > :10:54.larger question for larger question for the
:10:55. > :11:04.international community of 100,000 people killed in the civil war. I
:11:04. > :11:06.just want to wrap up the issue of the proposal. The French say they
:11:06. > :11:12.will be tabling a resolution at will be tabling a resolution at the
:11:12. > :11:13.United Nations Security Council to threaten Syria with serious
:11:13. > :11:15.consequences if it does not consequences if it does not
:11:15. > :11:22.surrender its chemical weapons arsenal. What is the United States
:11:22. > :11:29.going to do now, go along with the resolution and suspend the idea of
:11:29. > :11:45.military strikes, or what? I think that is what the Administration
:11:45. > :11:48.in terms of his own credibility and the credibility of the United States
:11:48. > :11:52.in its leadership role in this issue, is taking the boat to
:11:52. > :11:56.in its leadership role in this Congress. The Congress will suspend
:11:56. > :12:03.consideration for the authorisation of the use of force pending this
:12:03. > :12:07.diplomatic opening. The United States will push for a diplomatic
:12:07. > :12:13.resolution, and if diplomacy fails, there is the possibility of
:12:13. > :12:20.conducting the militarily operation. But that takes you back to 2002 and
:12:21. > :12:28.Iraq. They gave President Bush the authorisation for the use of force,
:12:28. > :12:35.giving them leveraged with the UN. But they will postpone a vote,
:12:35. > :12:38.set a moment ago that the set a moment ago that the
:12:38. > :12:41.international community should not just focus on the fact that America
:12:41. > :12:44.says around 1500 people died in says around 1500 people died in that
:12:44. > :12:54.local attack. —— chemical. 120,000 local attack. —— chemical. 120,000
:12:54. > :12:58.people have died in Syria. 99% of people are killed by bombs and
:12:58. > :13:03.bullets. Therefore, if Obama wants to save the Syria nation on
:13:03. > :13:06.humanitarian and moral grounds, humanitarian and moral grounds, he
:13:06. > :13:19.has to do something about unseating Assad from power. Part of the story
:13:19. > :13:22.about Syria is the scepticism of humanitarian intervention. This is a
:13:22. > :13:28.challenge for the American challenge for the American
:13:28. > :13:28.President, European leaders, as well as regional leaders. This is where
:13:28. > :13:42.everybody's calculations. Scepticism everybody's calculations. Scepticism
:13:42. > :13:50.in 1999, there was a confidence in accomplish, scepticism of the use of
:13:50. > :13:53.in 1999, there was a confidence in international intervention for
:13:53. > :14:01.humanitarian purposes. The same argument was made at Kosovo in
:14:01. > :14:05.It is not a vital interest, it does not directly threaten anybody's
:14:05. > :14:08.international community to international community to
:14:09. > :14:16.intervene. What is remarkable for me is that ten years ago, the pictures
:14:16. > :14:22.of refugees being pushed out of Kosovo in two camps in Macedonia and
:14:22. > :14:32.Albania. That is what galvanised European and public opinion to see
:14:32. > :14:36.this conflict through. We do not see the same reaction to the video is
:14:36. > :14:44.coming out of Syria and that is a testimony to the complexity. When
:14:44. > :14:50.Senator Jon McKain said he could not support something doomed to failure
:14:50. > :14:55.in the long run, he is talking about President Obama seeking a strike. He
:14:55. > :15:01.bad as nothing. People like him want bad as nothing. People like him want
:15:01. > :15:05.to see Assad unseated. They want more support from the American
:15:06. > :15:11.people. Is it falling between two things that not doing enough, and
:15:11. > :15:14.people who are weary about what happened in Iraq. Is the court
:15:14. > :15:21.declared that the two into the debate? He is absolutely caught
:15:21. > :15:24.between the two. You have to separate political messaging from
:15:24. > :15:30.strategic potential. Obviously, the strategic potential. Obviously, the
:15:30. > :15:36.White House is caught between these two narratives. The assurance that
:15:36. > :15:41.they will not be boots on the ground. The President is very
:15:41. > :15:50.reluctant to get involved in the Syrian campaign for a number of
:15:50. > :15:57.reasons. Including considerations regarding it run. On the
:15:57. > :16:02.administration had knowledged if you you see that in recent days the
:16:02. > :16:15.do conduct military at operation it can and
:16:15. > :16:21.administration is letting on. Should he have done more? This is another
:16:22. > :16:28.criticism that it vacillated. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta and
:16:28. > :16:32.other officials went along and said to President Obama, look, we have to
:16:32. > :16:42.said no. An adviser said that said no. An adviser said that
:16:42. > :16:44.privately Obama would concede this was his biggest mistake. He should
:16:44. > :16:49.have acted sooner. Do you have acted sooner. Do you agree?
:16:49. > :16:52.There are There are very difficult
:16:52. > :16:55.calculations here. The policy of the administration is containment which
:16:55. > :16:59.is having to determine is having to determine that
:16:59. > :17:03.ultimately, the conditions for a political settlement that do not yet
:17:03. > :17:09.exist. This could remind you of Bosnia without the civil war went on
:17:09. > :17:16.for several years before we went to a date in the negotiations. We are
:17:16. > :17:20.in Year 3 of this Syrian civil war. There is always a risk of more
:17:20. > :17:25.intensive military weapons blowing the leader of Syria and then have
:17:25. > :17:31.greater ramifications for surrounding countries that Turkey,
:17:31. > :17:39.Jordan, Israel. How do you contain this? He is not containing. He is
:17:39. > :17:43.The commander of the Free Syrian The commander of the Free Syrian
:17:43. > :17:48.Army said in July we need more help. Soon there will be no Free
:17:48. > :17:52.Syrian Army to arm. The troops will take control of everything. Former
:17:52. > :18:02.Democrat democrats saying striking Syria... The point being you have
:18:02. > :18:11.what he ought to be doing. Sure. As the
:18:11. > :18:11.what he ought to be doing. Sure. As you just pointed out, this is more
:18:11. > :18:18.opposition and the Assad regime. than one conflict. You do
:18:18. > :18:23.opposition and the Assad regime. Between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
:18:23. > :18:29.Between Hezbollah and decide to intervene more
:18:29. > :18:35.and the rest of the region. As you decide to intervene more
:18:35. > :18:38.significantly, how it impacts all of these conflicts is very difficult.
:18:38. > :18:44.From a political standpoint, if you From a political standpoint, if you
:18:44. > :18:47.give very significant weaponry to the Syrian opposition, can the
:18:47. > :18:53.Syrian opposition control that weaponry? The last thing the White
:18:53. > :19:01.House needs is a picture of an al—Qaeda operative holding an
:19:01. > :19:03.American—made air miss all. This is a very difficult calculation. It is.
:19:03. > :19:07.He said that Obama has not made the He said that Obama has not made the
:19:07. > :19:15.case on national security interests are arguably, Syria, the current
:19:15. > :19:21.conflict in Syria, is causing a great destabilise in the region. You
:19:21. > :19:26.have Iran, Hezbollah fighters are fighting on behalf of Assad. It is
:19:26. > :19:31.not contained in the same way that Iraq was. If Syria blows up, the
:19:31. > :19:37.whole region blows up. So why is not Obama making these casebook clearly
:19:37. > :19:43.and say it is in your national security interests? The overall
:19:43. > :19:48.scepticism coming out of the Iraq experience has coloured everything
:19:49. > :19:55.On the one hand, I am not going to On the one hand, I am not going to
:19:55. > :19:59.put but is on the ground, I have in mind is a limited strike but that
:19:59. > :20:03.because people are saying, well, if because people are saying, well, if
:20:03. > :20:08.in the Syrian civil war, why do it? in the Syrian civil war, why do it?
:20:08. > :20:12.And if you take action, will you come back as happened in Vietnam.
:20:12. > :20:17.You have to You have to up the anti because in
:20:17. > :20:22.your first step you did not have the impact you
:20:22. > :20:27.is very coherent. Using military is very coherent. Using military
:20:27. > :20:37.sceptical public is very difficult. of diplomacy.
:20:37. > :20:45.sceptical public is very difficult. What if he does not sell it to a
:20:45. > :20:51.sceptical public and more in ported the two —— importantly to Congress?
:20:51. > :20:52.That is a very difficult That is a very difficult
:20:52. > :20:58.calculation. Prime Minister Cameron, it was a close vote in the
:20:58. > :21:04.House of Commons when he said that the boat reflects the will of the
:21:04. > :21:09.people and we will respect the will of the people. Having sought a vote
:21:10. > :21:16.from Congress, Obama will be forced to respect whatever Congress's
:21:16. > :21:19.judgement is. That is what makes this proposal more significant
:21:19. > :21:23.because it puts the issue back in the UN were many in the US and many
:21:23. > :21:27.a round of the world feels it the loggers. That he has tied itself to
:21:27. > :21:34.carrying out some sort of military strike. People have said, if the use
:21:34. > :21:40.have been done by Assad, that have been done by Assad, that
:21:40. > :21:44.constitute the crossing of a red light. He will look like a paper
:21:44. > :21:51.Tiger if he does do nothing. A Middle east peace administrator,
:21:51. > :21:57.said the conventional wisdom of those who favours strike says that
:21:57. > :22:03.knowable take him seriously if he does not go ahead with the strikes.
:22:03. > :22:05.His credibility is at stake. He is credibility is at stake as is the
:22:06. > :22:11.international communities. The politics of these have fundamentally
:22:11. > :22:24.proposal to go to the UN with a change. For example, with the French
:22:24. > :22:32.case for military action. It hard enough
:22:32. > :22:32.case for military action. It provides time for the UN inspectors
:22:32. > :22:46.chemical weapons use. This provides to come back with
:22:46. > :22:55.chemical weapons use. This provides a more leveraged to Obama rather
:22:55. > :23:00.than less. When Lieberman said we are as a dysfunctional superpower,
:23:00. > :23:05.meaningful one. Do you think the US meaningful one. Do you think the US
:23:05. > :23:10.is a superpower in retreat? There is a risk there. If the President
:23:10. > :23:12.suffers a defeat in the Congress, it either diminishes his presidency at
:23:12. > :23:19.home or diminishes leadership home or diminishes leadership
:23:19. > :23:25.abroad. I was surprised when the President pressed the pause button
:23:25. > :23:29.rather than the launch button. I think he felt he did not have enough
:23:29. > :23:38.political legitimacy to proceed with the strike given what happened in
:23:38. > :23:45.the UK. If the man who won the peace prize now advocating military strike
:23:45. > :23:51.— please see the irony? I do see the irony but at the same taken, he does
:23:51. > :23:55.not want to own a significant war in Syria. The Russian proposal is a
:23:55. > :23:59.chance to get what he wants which is a peaceful solution. PJ Crowley
:23:59. > :24:01.thank you very much for coming on HARDtalk.