:00:00. > :00:18.Welcome to HARDtalk. What does the Nairobi shopping maul siege tell us
:00:18. > :00:21.about future terror attacks? Who will carry them out and we are?
:00:22. > :00:26.about future terror attacks? Who guest today is David Kilcullen,
:00:26. > :00:27.about future terror attacks? Who of the worlds most influential
:00:27. > :00:36.American general during the surge in advised the former US Secretary
:00:36. > :00:43.American general during the surge in the Iraq War. He has worked in
:00:43. > :01:16.Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq. Is the world in danger of underplaying
:01:16. > :01:17.Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq. Is the HARDtalk. What does the Nairobi
:01:17. > :01:21.attack tell us about the nature HARDtalk. What does the Nairobi
:01:21. > :01:31.future threat? I would characterise what happened in Nairobi as an
:01:31. > :01:35.example of an urban siege. Since the beginning of the war on terror about
:01:35. > :01:39.a dozen years ago, there have been a lot —— has been an evolution in
:01:39. > :01:43.a dozen years ago, there have been a way terrorists operate. In this
:01:43. > :01:50.doing something that we first saw bombings and during the Mumbai
:01:50. > :01:56.attacks. They have gone to a complex piece of Tobin —— urban to rain
:01:56. > :01:58.attacks. They have gone to a complex tried to hold that to rain for a
:01:58. > :02:03.long period of time and defend the area, fight to hold it. What does
:02:03. > :02:10.that tell us? What we are seeing is high—profile attacks like Mumbai.
:02:10. > :02:21.By's coastal city. That was November right. About 300 wounded. Terrorists
:02:21. > :02:23.coming by boat, in a slum area, right next to major high—rise hotels
:02:23. > :02:45.developed downtown parts. What does right next to major high—rise hotels
:02:45. > :02:48.developed downtown parts. What does that tell us, other than the fact
:02:48. > :02:53.that cities are dangerous? And cities have always been dangerous.
:02:53. > :02:58.But there are more people than ever in history living in cities. Another
:02:58. > :03:02.3 billion people will be in the urban population across the planet,
:03:02. > :03:07.cities, that are already straining almost all in developing world
:03:07. > :03:09.cities, that are already straining because of lack of infrastructure.
:03:09. > :03:15.One of the important things about the Nairobi attack is conflict
:03:15. > :03:21.happened where people lived and terrorist adapt to the conditions.
:03:21. > :03:27.overstretch, poverty and the kinds of things that lead to slum growth
:03:27. > :03:31.terrorists begin to operate. But what you have said is more than
:03:31. > :03:34.that. You say the challenge is we now have a growing population,
:03:34. > :03:40.urbanisation, particularly around coastal cities, and productivity
:03:40. > :03:46.What do you mean? When you live coastal cities, and productivity
:03:46. > :03:51.city like more bite, where there is enormous poverty, there are a lot of
:03:51. > :03:56.criminal organisations, corruption and a lack of infrastructure, most
:03:56. > :03:59.people don't have the kinds of resources they need. —— a city like
:03:59. > :04:04.occasionally a terrorist attack resources they need. —— a city like
:04:04. > :04:08.nasty and unpleasant but you have to be unlucky to be caught in that
:04:08. > :04:12.attack. The day to of billions of people in the cities in the next
:04:12. > :04:18.generation will be around other issues, more mundane, but more
:04:18. > :04:22.serious. One example would be the Kenyan national crime research
:04:22. > :04:28.Centre about one month ago issued a report that there are 46 criminal
:04:28. > :04:36.gangs operating in Kenya. 60% of the population of Nairobi lives in big
:04:36. > :04:37.slums. There are games that are dramatically more violent than
:04:37. > :04:48.Al—Shabab. What the conclusion? dramatically more violent than
:04:48. > :04:50.counterterrorism experts. You have been in just about every conflict in
:04:50. > :04:59.the world. You say, everybody, take been in just about every conflict in
:04:59. > :05:00.your eye off the ball when it comes to terror attacks and focus on local
:05:00. > :05:05.issues? We have focused on a very to terror attacks and focus on local
:05:05. > :05:05.issues? We have focused on a very particular type of threat. How we
:05:05. > :05:23.dramatically different. Urban, particular type of threat. How we
:05:23. > :05:26.dramatically different. Urban, crowded, Postal. As we shake off the
:05:26. > :05:30.hangover of a decade of conflict and we re—engage with the future, we are
:05:30. > :05:34.really going to have to look back at some of the things we thought we
:05:34. > :05:36.knew before 9/11. I will ask you about the jihad is great in a minute
:05:36. > :05:40.at picking up on what you said, about the jihad is great in a minute
:05:40. > :05:45.the jihad is the jihad of threat will be dwarfed by the criminal
:05:45. > :05:49.activity. But argue not guilty then of what for instance the Republican
:05:49. > :05:53.chairman of the house of Foreign Affairs Committee said after this
:05:53. > :06:01.attack, I think at this point we Al—Shabab, which is of course blamed
:06:01. > :06:06.for the attack in Nairobi, has a capability of carrying out attacks
:06:06. > :06:14.on the United States. Isn't this being complacent? There are 40
:06:14. > :06:19.Al—Shabab. They could conceivably carry out such an attack. One of the
:06:19. > :06:25.new things about the environment now is the incredibly high rate of
:06:25. > :06:28.conductivity. Urbanisation was not a new thing in the 20th century. ——
:06:28. > :06:45.significant penetration into the connectivity. People in the 90s
:06:45. > :06:45.significant penetration into the populations that are very heavily
:06:45. > :06:51.connected across the planet. Stuff populations that are very heavily
:06:51. > :06:51.connected across the planet. Stuff that happens in Somalia resonates in
:06:51. > :06:59.Minnesota of course has the largest that happens in Somalia resonates in
:06:59. > :07:05.Minnesota of course has the largest a way that it never did before.
:07:05. > :07:07.Minnesota of course has the largest complacent about the nature of the
:07:07. > :07:14.jihad of threat. I remind you of what President Obama said in May,
:07:14. > :07:20.when he made that speech to the National defence University. He
:07:20. > :07:21.when he made that speech to the that Al Qaeda are in retreat, but
:07:21. > :07:31.wonder if you are guilty of? I'm not they have been defeated pretty much.
:07:31. > :07:34.wonder if you are guilty of? I'm not sure what data President Obama is
:07:34. > :07:37.looking at but the data I am looking retreating. It suggests they have
:07:38. > :07:44.changed their way of operating. retreating. It suggests they have
:07:44. > :07:50.talked about Mumbai. 300 people wounded, about 160 killed. One metre
:07:50. > :07:52.of sealevel rise in Bangladesh puts 22 million people under water.
:07:52. > :07:56.That's what I mean by this kind 22 million people under water.
:07:56. > :08:00.threat dwarfs the terrorist threat. Millions of people on the move,
:08:00. > :08:01.threat dwarfs the terrorist threat. of the country too salty to farm,
:08:01. > :08:06.people starving to death and we of the country too salty to farm,
:08:06. > :08:14.talking about lack of basic urban dramatic, it's important. I have
:08:14. > :08:19.been doing it for a long time. I have two or three terrorist groups
:08:19. > :08:25.lined up to kill me so I won't President Obama said in May that Al
:08:25. > :08:30.remaining operatives spend more President Obama said in May that Al
:08:30. > :08:36.thinking about their own safety President Obama said in May that Al
:08:36. > :08:39.plotting against us. Isn't that Broncos a lot of people say the
:08:39. > :08:52.jihad is threat is stronger and resurgent. —— isn't that Broncos a
:08:52. > :08:53.lot of people. Insults have been hurled at President Obama, France's
:08:53. > :09:01.president. There is an anti—Western hurled at President Obama, France's
:09:01. > :09:03.president. There is an anti—Western threat there. You have to also think
:09:03. > :09:09.about what is happening at the level of Al Qaeda Central. Those guys
:09:09. > :09:17.about what is happening at the level Pakistan. The head of Al Qaeda?
:09:17. > :09:23.pointing to is that particular group is we can now than it was at some
:09:23. > :09:40.troops have done a very good job in still see a very strong regional
:09:40. > :09:45.troops have done a very good job in Mogadishu and kiss May. This is
:09:46. > :09:50.heading back to Uganda and Kenya... The Ugandans are the leading force
:09:50. > :09:55.within the peace keeping mission that has been fighting. I still
:09:55. > :09:57.within the peace keeping mission the Al—Shabab organisation as having
:09:57. > :10:05.a regional agenda. A lot of these groups, Al Qaeda in the Arabian
:10:05. > :10:09.Peninsular for example, and to some extent the jihad as groups in Syria,
:10:09. > :10:15.our allying themselves with the brand of Al Qaeda to gain credibly.
:10:15. > :10:17.So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say with a great deal of confidence
:10:17. > :10:20.So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say only a regional threat but you can't
:10:20. > :10:26.say that with confidence. Al Qaeda started off by only attacking end of
:10:26. > :10:30.Arabian Peninsular and then went further. Its aetiology all along was
:10:30. > :10:35.global, in a way Al—Shabab has not been. That's not what the president
:10:35. > :10:38.of Somalia has said. He says it been. That's not what the president
:10:38. > :10:46.an ideology, not a citizenship, been. That's not what the president
:10:46. > :10:51.we know, huge links with jihadists in many nations across Africa. Eon
:10:51. > :10:57.Africa. Is he wrong? Yes. He is wrong. The president of Somalia
:10:57. > :10:58.Africa. Is he wrong? Yes. He is wrong when he says that? It doesn't
:10:58. > :11:05.ago he said it was a threat to the wrong when he says that? It doesn't
:11:05. > :11:09.ago he said it was a threat to the whole world. I think he is right
:11:09. > :11:23.always been focused on that will about that. But it is not focused on
:11:23. > :11:29.organisation. It has said that it operates under the umbrella of Al
:11:29. > :11:35.But me give you an example. It was Qaeda. Just as many groups say that.
:11:35. > :11:38.recently said in Syria that a group was allying itself with Al Qaeda.
:11:38. > :11:43.The reason that statement was made is almost certainly not because
:11:43. > :11:55.The reason that statement was made wants to follow is an eerie into the
:11:55. > :11:59.alternative is to be... Al Qaeda Central is a weakened organisation
:11:59. > :12:03.on the other side of the Arabian Peninsular. It's better to have
:12:03. > :12:06.on the other side of the Arabian theoretical fealty to a brand name
:12:06. > :12:11.than be under the thumb of the guy who runs Al Qaeda in Iraq. So, you
:12:11. > :12:18.have to see this as a diversified group of different organisations. We
:12:18. > :12:24.do. A lot of experts do. Right after 9/11, they treated the thing as
:12:24. > :12:34.do. A lot of experts do. Right after single undifferentiated mass. But in
:12:34. > :12:39.today's Al Qaeda is more dangerous organisation because it is widely
:12:39. > :12:42.dispersed and there is a younger generation coming up with new ideas,
:12:42. > :12:47.all the way from west Africa to south Asia. It is a broader battle
:12:47. > :12:57.field. If he wrong? I think is right. I think he is pretty right.
:12:57. > :13:03.President makes a statement about what's going on with Al Qaeda, he is
:13:03. > :13:08.articulating a policy about moving away from militant confrontation in
:13:08. > :13:09.the Arab world and moving away from conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan.
:13:09. > :13:17.So, it has to be seen as part of the political discourse and that's why I
:13:18. > :13:28.say I think Somalia's resident is partly political. I think it's
:13:28. > :13:31.president's statement is partly political. To say because you are
:13:31. > :13:35.Muslim, you must have this different agenda, different to people who
:13:35. > :13:35.Muslim, you must have this different non— Muslim people have different
:13:35. > :13:40.backgrounds. What I react against is non— Muslim people have different
:13:40. > :13:41.backgrounds. What I react against is the political statements that came
:13:41. > :14:03.that people are wondering what the political statements that came
:14:03. > :14:03.that people are wondering what Somalis in Kenya I looking —— are up
:14:03. > :14:15.to. There are 40 members in the Somalis in Kenya I looking —— are up
:14:15. > :14:22.He said to the President that he was making a political statement that
:14:22. > :14:25.al—Shabab could be internationalist. It could be an international risk.
:14:25. > :14:30.But if you look at the statements that al—Shabab leaders have made, it
:14:30. > :14:37.is fundamentally focused not on overthrowing the entire world order
:14:37. > :14:41.like al—Qaeda, it is one of these groups that fundamentally have a
:14:41. > :14:47.local agenda. It is manipulated groups that fundamentally have a
:14:47. > :14:57.groups like al—Qaeda. Part of the danger of allowing them to fall
:14:57. > :15:02.groups like al—Qaeda. Part of the signing up for a mass of Western
:15:02. > :15:13.authoritarian regimes because they backyard. —— terrorists. We have got
:15:13. > :15:21.two was at 5000 American and British casualties. That is not the best way
:15:21. > :15:31.to treat this kind of threat. You mentioned that one of the groups
:15:31. > :15:37.ideology, however distorted it might the fact that religion or religious
:15:37. > :15:55.determines how things play out when be, is a motivating factor for a
:15:55. > :15:59.determines how things play out when they start. But one of the things I
:15:59. > :16:02.did was that they visited many cities and a number of different
:16:02. > :16:07.parts of the world and sought the Christian and Muslim and Hindu and
:16:07. > :16:18.what prone to this kind of activity. Christian and Muslim and Hindu and
:16:18. > :16:20.what prone to this kind of activity. What I see is that religion, along
:16:20. > :16:23.with a lot of other things, is a factor. But would you accept that
:16:23. > :16:29.there are people in the region, factor. But would you accept that
:16:29. > :16:34.the president of Tunisia, who has warned of the rise of the Islamist
:16:34. > :16:38.terrorism. He said al—Qaeda is trying to recoup its losses from the
:16:38. > :16:45.initial Arab uprisings, led by secular and mainstream groups. He
:16:45. > :16:56.clearly has a vested interest in seeing peace. I am not talking about
:16:56. > :17:03.the modernist Islamist is. I am talking about the jihadist is.
:17:03. > :17:11.President Putin has made similar comments. One of the side—effects of
:17:11. > :17:19.the uprising against the oppressive regimes in North Africa has been a
:17:19. > :17:26.rise in jihadist activity in those places. One of the tragedies of
:17:26. > :17:33.Syria has been that the West has broad—based civil lead largely
:17:33. > :17:42.secular Movement for Democratic Change in Syria be overwhelmed by
:17:42. > :17:44.oppressive brutality to the point where the original Syria and civil
:17:44. > :17:48.Democrat leaders have been sidelined where the original Syria and civil
:17:48. > :17:51.Democrat leaders have been sidelined and you have a series of relatively
:17:51. > :18:05.extreme military groups. That is a challenge. How could they have
:18:05. > :18:07.lot more diplomatically. I would not avoided that? We should have done a
:18:07. > :18:11.lot more diplomatically. I would not advocate a military intervention. A
:18:11. > :18:28.the regime six months to get from military intervention in this kind
:18:28. > :18:34.and shooting protesters to the point where it is facing a civil war.
:18:35. > :18:36.and shooting protesters to the point relatively unified. You had things
:18:36. > :18:40.they can President's wife looking to where the family could flee to.
:18:40. > :18:46.they can President's wife looking to have people in the Allied community
:18:46. > :18:49.rejecting the leadership. What we have now is that President Assad's
:18:49. > :18:59.powerbase has unified. People feel diplomatic intervention earlier
:18:59. > :19:06.would have helped? It would not diplomatic intervention earlier
:19:06. > :19:17.the regime any weaker. Help is your theory of how we can best bike to
:19:17. > :19:23.insurgency, would that help people? It is really important to see Syria
:19:23. > :19:28.as part of a series of conflicts that began to emerge in 2010. Urban
:19:28. > :19:32.populations that were very connected with each other and in many places
:19:32. > :19:37.close to the coastline were able to exploit that kind of activity and
:19:37. > :19:43.the density of communications. They were able to overthrow regimes that
:19:43. > :19:53.would not have been able to defeat revolution quickly because there was
:19:53. > :19:57.not a lot of connectivity between people. This time around, half a
:19:57. > :19:59.dozen cities rose up simultaneously people. This time around, half a
:19:59. > :20:05.dozen cities rose up simultaneously because people were talking to each
:20:05. > :20:13.to get ahead. So you have got to try to get ahead. So you have got to try
:20:13. > :20:21.and secure the cities. Is that the idea? What we see with most of the
:20:21. > :20:25.fighting is that it is almost all in the cities, but the rebels have
:20:25. > :20:32.controlled the outskirts, with the regime controlling the medals. That
:20:32. > :20:41.is a typical pattern. It seems that you have been writing things in
:20:41. > :20:42.is a typical pattern. It seems that book, that we have got to get our
:20:42. > :20:48.heads inside series and out of the mountains. —— cities. But I do not
:20:48. > :20:51.overlooking the fact that there mountains. —— cities. But I do not
:20:51. > :20:58.a lot of terrorists and criminal activities that do operate in rural
:20:58. > :21:07.areas? Not at all. There will still violence, crime and conflict in
:21:07. > :21:13.rural areas. The —— but two thirds of people will be either in a major
:21:13. > :21:19.city or a smaller city. Conflict happens where people are. If you are
:21:19. > :21:23.focused on preparing to deal with that kind of environment, in the
:21:23. > :21:33.British army or police, you want to be thinking less about rural areas
:21:33. > :21:37.and more about open environments. President Obama said they take
:21:37. > :21:40.refuge in tribal regions and walled compounds. They train in empty
:21:40. > :21:44.deserts and rugged mountains. But you're arguing for people to take
:21:44. > :21:48.her focus of areas where these people operate. That will not make
:21:48. > :21:53.the world a safer place. We now people operate. That will not make
:21:53. > :21:57.engaging in that environment. I people operate. That will not make
:21:57. > :22:02.the ball. But as these conflicts not suggesting we take our eye off
:22:02. > :22:05.the ball. But as these conflicts come to an end, as we think about
:22:05. > :22:12.of history, Carew was used to hide what is coming next, we look at
:22:12. > :22:18.of history, Carew was used to hide in jungles. Now we have radar that
:22:18. > :22:21.can penetrate that. They used to hide in mountains. Not because they
:22:21. > :22:23.like mountains, that is where the cover was. Now with drones and
:22:23. > :22:49.open. Dramatically larger amounts of cover was. Now with drones and
:22:49. > :22:50.open. Dramatically larger amounts of urbanising. This is not just a
:22:50. > :22:55.theory of conflict. Everything is getting more open. Finally, when you
:22:55. > :23:09.look at the world today, were you think the most dangerous place is on
:23:09. > :23:17.which become this doughnut shaped ring of Territorians were people
:23:17. > :23:24.moved to. Most larger cities on coastlines. East and west coast
:23:24. > :23:26.moved to. Most larger cities on Africa, North Africa, the Middle
:23:26. > :23:35.East, certain parts of the Caribbean suggesting that is where terrorists
:23:35. > :23:40.will hide. That is unsophisticated. There are a lot of other threats out
:23:40. > :23:46.there at that will be much more threatening to the future of the
:23:46. > :23:50.extremists. It will be about urban overstretching failing to cope with