:00:00. > :00:10.was fired last year because of his age, a claim denied by the board. It
:00:10. > :00:11.HARDtalk. Welcome to HARDtalk. What does the Nairobi shopping mall siege
:00:11. > :00:16.tell us about future terror attacks? does the Nairobi shopping mall siege
:00:16. > :00:17.tell us about future terror attacks? Who will carry them out and where?
:00:17. > :00:25.one of the worlds most influential My guest today is David Kilcullen,
:00:25. > :00:26.one of the worlds most influential counterinsurgency experts. He has
:00:26. > :00:30.advised the former US Secretary counterinsurgency experts. He has
:00:30. > :00:40.American general during the surge in the Iraq War. He has worked in many
:00:40. > :01:15.Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq. Is the world in danger of underplaying
:01:15. > :01:20.HARDtalk. Thank you.What does the Nairobi attack tell us about the
:01:20. > :01:27.nature of future threat? I would Nairobi as an example of an urban
:01:27. > :01:31.siege. Since the beginning of the war on terror about a dozen years
:01:31. > :01:39.ago, there has been an evolution in the way terrorists operate. In this
:01:39. > :01:48.doing something that we first saw bombings and during the Mumbai
:01:48. > :01:51.attacks. They have gone to a complex piece of urban terrain and tried to
:01:51. > :01:53.hold that terrain for a long period of time and defend the area, fight
:01:53. > :02:03.to hold it. What does that tell of time and defend the area, fight
:02:04. > :02:08.attacks like Mumbai. Mumbai's a beginning to copy high—profile
:02:08. > :02:26.coming by boat, in a slum area, coastal city. That was November
:02:26. > :02:28.coming by boat, in a slum area, Western dominated targets. Nairobi
:02:28. > :02:44.developed downtown parts. What does that tell us, other than the fact
:02:44. > :02:52.that cities are dangerous? And cities have always been dangerous.
:02:52. > :02:56.Yes but there are more people than ever in history living in cities.
:02:56. > :02:58.Another three billion people will be living in the urban population
:02:58. > :03:01.across the planet, almost all in developing world cities, that are
:03:01. > :03:04.already straining because of lack of infrastructure. One of the important
:03:04. > :03:07.things about the Nairobi attack infrastructure. One of the important
:03:07. > :03:14.the conflict happened where people live and terrorist adapt to the
:03:14. > :03:16.conditions. As the world gets more urban, overstretched, poverty and
:03:17. > :03:25.the kinds of things that lead to slum growth will become the cover,
:03:25. > :03:27.where terrorists begin to operate. But what you have said is more than
:03:27. > :03:30.that. You say the challenges we But what you have said is more than
:03:30. > :03:31.have are a growing population, urbanisation, particularly around
:03:31. > :03:42.coastal cities, and productivity What do you mean? When you live
:03:42. > :03:44.coastal cities, and productivity city like Mumbai, where there is
:03:44. > :03:46.enormous poverty, there are a lot of criminal organisations, corruption
:03:46. > :03:53.and a lack of infrastructure, most people don't have the kinds of
:03:53. > :03:55.resources they need. The fact there is occasionally a terrorist attack
:03:55. > :04:05.to be unlucky to be caught in that is nasty and unpleasant but you
:04:05. > :04:05.to be unlucky to be caught in that attack. The concerns of billions of
:04:05. > :04:09.people in the cities in the next attack. The concerns of billions of
:04:09. > :04:14.generation will be around other issues, more mundane, but more
:04:14. > :04:16.Kenyan National Crime Research serious. One example would be the
:04:16. > :04:18.Centre about one month ago issued a Centre about one month ago issued a
:04:18. > :04:24.report that there are 46 criminal gangs operating in Kenya. 60% of the
:04:24. > :04:33.population of Nairobi lives in big slums. There are gangs that are
:04:33. > :04:47.dramatically more violent than Al—Shabab. What's the conclusion?
:04:47. > :04:48.counterterrorism experts. You have been in just about every conflict in
:04:48. > :04:52.the world. You say, everybody, take been in just about every conflict in
:04:52. > :04:54.the world. You say, everybody, take your eye off the ball when it comes
:04:54. > :05:03.to terror attacks and focus on local issues? We have focused on a very
:05:03. > :05:06.particular type of threat. How we deal with rural guerrillas in places
:05:06. > :05:12.like Afghanistan. Mountainous, landlocked. We will still deal with
:05:12. > :05:16.the same kinds of threat in the future but the environments will be
:05:16. > :05:20.dramatically different. Urban, crowded, coastal. As we shake off
:05:20. > :05:24.the hangover of a decade of conflict and we re—engage with the future, we
:05:24. > :05:34.are really going to have to look thought we knew before 9/11. I will
:05:34. > :05:37.ask you about the jihadist threat in a minute, but picking up on what you
:05:37. > :05:43.said, that the jihadist threat will be dwarfed by the criminal activity.
:05:43. > :05:46.But are you not guilty then of what for instance the Republican chairman
:05:46. > :05:49.of the house of Foreign Affairs Committee said after this attack, I
:05:49. > :05:52.think at this point we don't have any evidence that Al—Shabab, which
:05:52. > :06:03.is of course blamed for the attack in Nairobi, is capable of carrying
:06:03. > :06:08.out attacks on the United States. Isn't this being complacent? There
:06:08. > :06:13.are 40 Americans who are members of Al—Shabab. They could conceivably
:06:13. > :06:16.carry out such an attack. One of the new things about the environment now
:06:16. > :06:19.is the incredibly high rate of connectivity. Urbanisation was not a
:06:19. > :06:44.significant penetration into the new thing in the 20th century.
:06:44. > :06:44.connected across the planet. Stuff that happens in Somalia resonates in
:06:44. > :06:57.Minnesota of course has the largest that happens in Somalia resonates in
:06:57. > :07:02.Minnesota of course has the largest a way that it never did before. But
:07:02. > :07:06.complacent about the nature of the jihadist threat. I remind you of
:07:06. > :07:08.what President Obama said in May, when he made that speech to the
:07:08. > :07:14.National Defence University. He when he made that speech to the
:07:14. > :07:20.that Al Qaeda are in retreat, but they have been defeated pretty much.
:07:20. > :07:25.It's that kind of complacency I wonder if you are guilty of? I'm not
:07:25. > :07:33.sure what data President Obama is looking at but the data I am looking
:07:33. > :07:40.retreating. It suggests they have changed their way of operating.
:07:40. > :07:42.retreating. It suggests they have me put this in perspective. You
:07:42. > :07:45.talked about Mumbai. 300 people wounded, about 160 killed. One metre
:07:45. > :07:48.of sealevel rise in Bangladesh puts 22 million people under water.
:07:48. > :07:53.That's what I mean by this kind 22 million people under water.
:07:53. > :07:56.threat dwarfs the terrorist threat. Millions of people on the move,
:07:56. > :07:56.threat dwarfs the terrorist threat. of the country too salty to farm,
:07:56. > :08:00.people starving to death and we of the country too salty to farm,
:08:00. > :08:12.talking about lack of basic urban dramatic, it's important. I have
:08:12. > :08:16.been doing it for a long time. In extremism. I have two or three
:08:16. > :08:22.terrorist groups lined up to kill me so I won't underestimate the threat.
:08:22. > :08:24.But President Obama said in May so I won't underestimate the threat.
:08:24. > :08:26.Al Qaeda is less capable. Their remaining operatives spend more
:08:26. > :08:29.Al Qaeda is less capable. Their thinking about their own safety
:08:29. > :08:29.Al Qaeda is less capable. Their plotting against us. Isn't that
:08:29. > :08:48.jihadist threat is stronger and wrong? A lot of people say the
:08:48. > :08:54.jihadist threat is stronger and resurgent. Insults have been hurled
:08:54. > :09:09.about what is happening at the level President Hollande. There is an
:09:09. > :09:13.about what is happening at the level Pakistan. The head of Al Qaeda?Yes.
:09:13. > :09:16.What President Obama is pointing to is that particular group, which
:09:16. > :09:18.What President Obama is pointing to weaker now than it was at some
:09:18. > :09:22.points in the past. However, we still see a very strong regional
:09:22. > :09:25.extremist militant threat. I see Al—Shabab in the context of what has
:09:25. > :09:27.happened in Somalia, where African troops have done a very good job in
:09:27. > :09:35.expelling Al—Shabab from places troops have done a very good job in
:09:35. > :09:46.Mogadishu and Kismayo. This is heading back to Uganda and Kenya...
:09:46. > :09:47.The Ugandans are the leading force within the peace keeping mission
:09:47. > :09:51.that has been fighting. I still within the peace keeping mission
:09:51. > :09:56.the Al—Shabab organisation as having a regional agenda. A lot of these
:09:56. > :09:59.groups, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular for example, and to some
:09:59. > :10:08.extent the jihadist groups in Syria, are allying themselves with the
:10:08. > :10:11.brand of Al Qaeda to gain credibly. So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say
:10:11. > :10:14.with a great deal of confidence So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say
:10:14. > :10:16.it's only a regional threat but So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say
:10:16. > :10:18.can't say that with confidence. So did Al—Shabab in 2012. You say
:10:18. > :10:20.Qaeda started off by only attacking the end of Arabian Peninsular and
:10:20. > :10:26.then went further. Its ideology the end of Arabian Peninsular and
:10:26. > :10:35.along was global, in a way Al—Shabab has not been. And still is not.
:10:35. > :10:38.That's not what the president of Somalia has said. He says it is
:10:38. > :10:41.That's not what the president of ideology, not a citizenship, not an
:10:41. > :10:46.ethnic group. He says it has, as we know, had links with jihadists in
:10:46. > :11:00.many nations across Africa. Is he international links? Three days
:11:00. > :11:02.many nations across Africa. Is he he said it was a threat to the whole
:11:02. > :11:16.establishment globally. Al Qaeda has he said it was a threat to the whole
:11:16. > :11:18.establishment globally. Al Qaeda has always been focused on that. But it
:11:18. > :11:27.groups say that. But me give you an is an affiliate organisation. It has
:11:27. > :11:31.groups say that. But me give you an example. A group in Syria recently
:11:31. > :11:33.allied itself with Al Qaeda. The reason that statement was made is
:11:33. > :11:42.almost certainly not because they want to descend into the gates of
:11:42. > :11:49.hell and do giant insurgency. It's because his alternative is to be
:11:49. > :11:53.under the thumb of Al Qaeda. In Iraq. Al Qaeda Central is a weakened
:11:53. > :11:55.organisation on the other side of the Arabian Peninsular. It's better
:11:55. > :11:58.to have a theoretical fealty to the Arabian Peninsular. It's better
:11:58. > :12:06.brand name than be under the thumb of the guy who runs Al Qaeda in
:12:06. > :12:14.Iraq. So, you have to see this as a diversified group of different
:12:14. > :12:20.organisations. We do. A lot of falling into a trap. Right after
:12:21. > :12:24.9/11, they treated the thing as falling into a trap. Right after
:12:24. > :12:31.single undifferentiated mass. But in today's Al Qaeda is more dangerous
:12:31. > :12:34.organisation because it is widely dispersed and there is a younger
:12:34. > :12:41.generation coming up with new ideas, all the way from west Africa to
:12:41. > :12:48.south Asia. It is a broader battle field. Is he wrong? I think is
:12:48. > :12:58.what's going on with Al Qaeda, he is right. I think he is pretty right.
:12:58. > :12:58.what's going on with Al Qaeda, he is articulating a policy about moving
:12:58. > :13:02.the Arab world and moving away from articulating a policy about moving
:13:02. > :13:07.the Arab world and moving away from conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan.
:13:07. > :13:10.So, it has to be seen as part of the conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan.
:13:10. > :13:18.political discourse and that's why I political discourse and that's why I
:13:18. > :13:21.statement is partly political. I think it's actually racist. To say
:13:21. > :13:34.backgrounds. What I react against is because you are Muslim, you must
:13:34. > :13:37.backgrounds. What I react against is the political statements that came
:13:37. > :14:05.everybody as an undifferentiated threat. We have to take at face
:14:05. > :14:08.value what they say. We have reports that people are wondering what
:14:08. > :14:12.Somalis in Kenya are up to. There are 40 members in the UK. You said
:14:12. > :14:17.to the President that he was making a political statement that al—Shabab
:14:17. > :14:21.could be an international risk. It could be an international risk. It
:14:21. > :14:25.if you look at the statements that al—Shabab leaders have made, it
:14:25. > :14:27.if you look at the statements that overthrowing the entire world order
:14:27. > :14:28.like Al—Qaeda, it is one of these groups that fundamentally have a
:14:28. > :14:43.local agenda. It is manipulated groups that fundamentally have a
:14:44. > :14:49.groups like Al—Qaeda. Part of the danger of allowing them to fall
:14:49. > :14:51.groups like Al—Qaeda. Part of the authoritarian regimes because they
:14:51. > :15:13.have found terrorists in their backyard. We have got two wars and
:15:13. > :15:16.casualties. That is not the best way to treat this kind of threat. You
:15:16. > :15:18.mentioned that one of the groups to treat this kind of threat. You
:15:18. > :15:20.mentioned that one of the groups fighting in Syria, you downplayed
:15:20. > :15:38.be, is a motivating factor for a lot the fact that religion or religious
:15:38. > :15:40.be, is a motivating factor for a lot of these groups. Do you recognise
:15:40. > :15:42.the importance? Absolutely. The of these groups. Do you recognise
:15:42. > :15:54.determines how things play out when talks about the way that enhanced
:15:54. > :15:56.determines how things play out when they start. But one of the things I
:15:56. > :15:59.did was that I visited many cities and a number of different parts
:16:00. > :16:01.did was that I visited many cities the world and saw the same thing is
:16:02. > :16:08.playing out in Christian and Muslim and Hindu and Buddhist societies. I
:16:08. > :16:10.do not see one particular religion is necessarily more prone to this
:16:10. > :16:16.kind of activity. What I see is is necessarily more prone to this
:16:16. > :16:19.religion, along with a lot of other things, is a factor. But would you
:16:19. > :16:24.accept that there are people in things, is a factor. But would you
:16:24. > :16:32.Tunisia, who has warned of the rise of the Islamist terrorism. He said
:16:32. > :16:49.Al—Qaeda is trying to recoup its mainstream groups. He clearly has a
:16:49. > :17:02.am not talking about the modernist Islamists. I am talking about the
:17:02. > :17:07.jihadists. President Putin has made side—effects of the uprising against
:17:07. > :17:23.tragedies of Syria has been that the the oppressive regimes in North
:17:23. > :17:23.West has allowed what was basically a broad—based civil led largely
:17:23. > :17:25.secular Movement for Democratic a broad—based civil led largely
:17:25. > :17:30.where the original Syrian and civil Change in Syria be overwhelmed by
:17:30. > :17:32.where the original Syrian and civil democrat leaders have been sidelined
:17:32. > :17:52.and you have a series of relatively extreme military groups. That is a
:17:52. > :18:03.avoided that? We should have done a challenge. How could they have
:18:03. > :18:05.avoided that? We should have done a lot more diplomatically. I would not
:18:05. > :18:08.advocate a military intervention. A military intervention in this kind
:18:08. > :18:14.of environment is always the wrong answer. But we did sit on our hands
:18:14. > :18:19.for at least the first year. It answer. But we did sit on our hands
:18:19. > :18:22.the regime six months to get from just beating people up with sticks
:18:22. > :18:33.and shooting protesters to the point where it is facing a civil war.
:18:33. > :18:35.and shooting protesters to the point relatively unified. You had things
:18:35. > :18:38.like the President's wife looking to where the family could flee to.
:18:38. > :18:41.like the President's wife looking to have people in the Alawite community
:18:41. > :18:46.rejecting the leadership. What we have now is that President Assad's
:18:46. > :18:52.powerbase has unified. People feel that the alternative is destruction.
:18:52. > :19:04.intervention earlier would have helped? It would not make the regime
:19:04. > :19:17.any weaker. How is your theory of insurgency, would that help people?
:19:17. > :19:23.It is really important to see Syria as part of a series of conflicts
:19:23. > :19:26.that began to emerge in 2010. Urban populations that were very connected
:19:26. > :19:29.with each other and in many places close to the coastline were able to
:19:29. > :19:36.exploit that kind of activity and the density of communications. They
:19:36. > :19:46.were able to overthrow regimes that revolution quickly because there was
:19:46. > :19:54.not a lot of connectivity between people. This time around, half a
:19:54. > :19:56.dozen cities rose up simultaneously people. This time around, half a
:19:56. > :20:04.other. It was harder for the regime because people were talking to
:20:04. > :20:08.to get ahead. So you have got to try and secure the cities. Is that the
:20:08. > :20:13.fighting is that it is almost all in and secure the cities. Is that the
:20:13. > :20:15.fighting is that it is almost all in the cities, but the rebels have
:20:15. > :20:28.controlled the outskirts, with the regime controlling the middles.
:20:28. > :20:29.controlled the outskirts, with the is a typical pattern. It seems that
:20:29. > :20:32.the key idea in your model, you is a typical pattern. It seems that
:20:32. > :20:34.you have been writing things in is a typical pattern. It seems that
:20:34. > :20:36.book, that we have got to get our heads inside cities and out of the
:20:36. > :20:47.overlooking the fact that there heads inside cities and out of the
:20:47. > :20:55.a lot of terrorists and criminal activities that do operate in rural
:20:55. > :21:00.areas? Not at all. There. Be a substantial amount of violence,
:21:00. > :21:04.crime and conflict in rural areas. But two thirds of people will be
:21:04. > :21:11.either in a major city or a smaller city. Conflict happens where people
:21:11. > :21:14.are. If you are focused on preparing environment, in the British army or
:21:14. > :21:17.police, you want to be thinking environment, in the British army or
:21:17. > :21:21.about rural areas and more about urban environments. President Obama
:21:21. > :21:35.said they take refuge in tribal regions and walled compounds. They
:21:35. > :21:39.train in empty deserts and rugged mountains. But you're arguing for
:21:39. > :21:49.place. We now have really good people to take their focus off
:21:49. > :21:50.place. We now have really good capabilities for engaging in that
:21:50. > :21:57.environment. I am not suggesting we capabilities for engaging in that
:21:58. > :21:58.environment. I am not suggesting we take our eye off the ball. But as
:21:58. > :22:02.these conflicts come to an end, take our eye off the ball. But as
:22:02. > :22:07.we think about what is coming next, we look at where people actually
:22:07. > :22:09.guerrillas used to hide in jungles. Now we have radar that can penetrate
:22:09. > :22:18.mountains. Not because they like mountains, that is where the cover
:22:18. > :22:28.and radar, the cover is in the mountains, that is where the cover
:22:28. > :22:29.and radar, the cover is in the cities. We have seen this in the
:22:30. > :22:35.case of Afghanistan. The conflict has become increasingly urban.
:22:35. > :22:44.Dramatically larger amounts of the conflict are happening in cities.
:22:44. > :22:53.Conflict generally is urbanising. conflict. Everything is getting
:22:53. > :22:53.Conflict generally is urbanising. urban. Finally, when you look at the
:22:53. > :22:59.world today, where do you think urban. Finally, when you look at the
:22:59. > :23:02.most dangerous place is on Earth? Very much so it is the rapidly
:23:02. > :23:13.growing edges of cities, which become this doughnut shaped ring of
:23:13. > :23:19.territories where people moved to. Most larger cities on coastlines.
:23:19. > :23:22.East and west coast of Africa, North Africa, the Middle East, certain
:23:22. > :23:28.parts of the Caribbean and Latin America. I am not suggesting that is
:23:28. > :23:36.where terrorists will hide. That is unsophisticated. There are a lot of
:23:36. > :23:38.other threats out there that will be much more threatening to the future
:23:38. > :23:44.extremists. It will be about urban of the well—being of humans than
:23:44. > :23:45.extremists. It will be about urban overstretching failing to cope with