:00:00. > :00:20.Welcome to HARDtalk. Can a frantic round of international diplomacy
:00:21. > :00:26.deliver a deescalation of the Ukraine crisis? The immediate aim is
:00:27. > :00:29.to avoid a shooting war, and the longer term challenges to persuade
:00:30. > :00:35.Russia to accept a new political landscape in Kiev. Can it be done? I
:00:36. > :00:43.am joined from Brussels by Ukraine's Ambassador to NATO, Ihor
:00:44. > :00:46.Doldhov, and from Chicago by the recently retired US ambassador to
:00:47. > :00:56.the same organisation, Ivo Daalder. In this battle between Putin and the
:00:57. > :01:24.West, who wins? Ivo Daalder in Chicago in the US,
:01:25. > :01:32.and Ihor Doldhov in Brussels, ambassadors both, welcome to
:01:33. > :01:39.HARDtalk. Very pleased to be here. Thank you. Let me start with you,
:01:40. > :01:43.Ihor Doldhov, would you expect that right now in this unfolding crisis,
:01:44. > :01:48.it is Vladimir Putin who is pulling the strings? He is acting, and
:01:49. > :01:58.everyone else has to react. Thank you for the question, and let me
:01:59. > :02:01.from the beginning put at the centre of our attention today the most
:02:02. > :02:09.important subject. It is Ukraine, and Ukrainian people. It is not
:02:10. > :02:14.about Putin and the West. It is about Ukraine and the choices of the
:02:15. > :02:17.people. We really appreciate all strong support that we have received
:02:18. > :02:23.from NATO, from the EU, from different capitals, but as you see,
:02:24. > :02:29.our efforts are not sufficient to convince the Russian Federation to
:02:30. > :02:36.stop military invasion, to pull back all troops, and to come back to the
:02:37. > :02:41.political solution of the situation. No, that is the truth. You say it is
:02:42. > :02:46.all about the Ukrainian people, but the fact is that Vladimir Putin has
:02:47. > :02:52.ordered his troops to essentially takeover Crimea, and they are going
:02:53. > :02:58.nowhere, it seems. That is a reality you have two now react to, and live
:02:59. > :03:06.with. Unfortunately, we have to live with that, but again, let me
:03:07. > :03:16.reconfirm that we are not alone. We are not for Britain, or neglected by
:03:17. > :03:21.the world community -- forbidden. We have strong support from UN, NATO,
:03:22. > :03:27.and the Black Sea Mission will be deployed there, and altogether we
:03:28. > :03:35.will be able to convince Moscow to stop the invasion. Let's cross from
:03:36. > :03:39.Brussels to Chicago. Recently retired from NATO, but I know still
:03:40. > :03:45.watching events in Europe very closely, Ivo Daalder, you believe
:03:46. > :03:55.that part of the problem here is that the West, perhaps led by the
:03:56. > :03:58.US, Miss red Vladimir Putin's reaction to the amazing political
:03:59. > :04:05.events we saw in the past few months. ? Think in the past few
:04:06. > :04:09.months we have had a situation where around the world we expect nations
:04:10. > :04:12.to behave in a certain way, and one of which is not to invade
:04:13. > :04:17.neighbouring countries. This was clearly violated. I don't think that
:04:18. > :04:26.anybody has had any illusions about Mr Putin or what it is that he is
:04:27. > :04:31.after, it is very clear that he is a man who has said that the breakup of
:04:32. > :04:37.the Soviet Union was the greatest crisis of our century. We have seen
:04:38. > :04:44.this going on with regard to Ukraine for many years, in particular since
:04:45. > :04:48.late last year when the EU was trying to negotiate and Association
:04:49. > :04:52.agreement. Did anybody expect him to move as brazenly as he did over the
:04:53. > :04:56.weekend? Perhaps not. But the reality is that no one, and that
:04:57. > :05:04.includes no one in the US, Europe, NATO, United Nations, is willing to
:05:05. > :05:07.accept this new situation, and everyone is united to find a way to
:05:08. > :05:12.put the pressure on Russia so that we can get back to the status quo,
:05:13. > :05:17.in which the Ukrainian people can choose their own people. We will get
:05:18. > :05:21.to that unwillingness, and what it means in practical terms in a
:05:22. > :05:25.moment, but just sticking with what you know well, which is US strategy
:05:26. > :05:31.towards Russia during the Obama administration, would you now expect
:05:32. > :05:38.that the strategy has failed from beginning to end? -- accept. It
:05:39. > :05:43.began with the US wanting to hit a reset button. We know that Putin
:05:44. > :05:47.would happily send his troops into another sovereign nation to achieve
:05:48. > :05:53.Russia's own ends, we saw that from Georgia, yet you still talked about
:05:54. > :05:56.a reset button. Then, you are seemingly taken by surprise when he
:05:57. > :06:03.did the same thing in Ukraine. Let's be clear. The President, when he
:06:04. > :06:13.came into office in 2009, said, let's look at those areas that are
:06:14. > :06:20.in difficult situations, and let's look at those areas. That worked in
:06:21. > :06:28.Afghanistan, where US troops were able to use Russian infrastructure,
:06:29. > :06:34.we worked very closely with Russia to put sanctions on Iran, to get us
:06:35. > :06:42.to the point where we are today, where we have a negotiated solution.
:06:43. > :06:50.We have negotiated a major strategic armaments agreement to reduce
:06:51. > :06:56.nuclear weapons. No one had any illusions about who they were
:06:57. > :06:59.dealing with in Russia, after all, this is the president who decided
:07:00. > :07:03.not to have a summit with President Putin because there was nothing to
:07:04. > :07:06.talk about. The issue of whether some would have seen what was going
:07:07. > :07:11.to happen over the weekend is before us. Was President Putin going to do
:07:12. > :07:16.the kinds of things he was going to do this weekend or next weekend, we
:07:17. > :07:20.don't know? That is a judgement that the intelligence community made, and
:07:21. > :07:25.frankly not just the US intelligence community, but every intelligence
:07:26. > :07:29.community. Now we know, and we know that the situation needs to be
:07:30. > :07:35.reversed, that we need to find a way back to a situation in which Ukraine
:07:36. > :07:40.is in full control of not only its territory, but its own destiny.
:07:41. > :07:46.Doesn't help, and I ask you this a diplomat, when some of the most
:07:47. > :07:50.significant voices in the US, such as John McCain and Hillary Clinton,
:07:51. > :07:53.like in what Russia is doing in the Ukraine to what the Nazis did in
:07:54. > :08:08.Europe in the nineteen thirties? Is that helpful? We live in a democracy
:08:09. > :08:13.where people can say what they want. As Robert Gates said in the
:08:14. > :08:16.Washington Post this morning, we want to speak with an American
:08:17. > :08:21.voice. We need to leave the question of what happened and how it happened
:08:22. > :08:28.behind, and the United with a strategy, that works with the US and
:08:29. > :08:35.European allies, to get what we want. Let's talk with some of the
:08:36. > :08:41.partners that Ukraine has, and what might be on offer in terms of
:08:42. > :08:47.assistance. Ihor Doldhov, you represent Ukraine at NATO, there has
:08:48. > :08:49.been some talk, and one of your ambassadorial colleagues in Ukraine
:08:50. > :08:56.has mentioned this already. There was a suggestion that the UN in
:08:57. > :09:02.terms of a quid pro quo on assistance in the long-term, may be
:09:03. > :09:06.looking for a payback. Ukraine agreeing to take some of the
:09:07. > :09:11.infrastructure for the US missile defence system. You think that is
:09:12. > :09:17.the way Ukraine should be handling this right now? Looking for those
:09:18. > :09:24.sorts of tieups with the US, NATO and the West? All options are being
:09:25. > :09:30.discussed. For Ukraine, it is not only a Ukrainian problem, but it is
:09:31. > :09:36.a challenge for the globe, which we now have faced. It is about global
:09:37. > :09:40.and European security. Some decisions will be taken after the
:09:41. > :09:46.crisis is settled, and Ukraine will be put back on the right track,
:09:47. > :09:51.without any foreign presence in my own country. If that is what is
:09:52. > :09:56.being discussed right now, in terms of Ukraine's strategic teacher, if
:09:57. > :09:59.NATO members led by the US are suggesting that in the long run
:10:00. > :10:06.Ukraine might be part of a missile defence shield run by the US, surely
:10:07. > :10:11.it simply proves Russia's point, that he we have a fundamental
:10:12. > :10:20.confrontation which the Western powers are trying to tempt Ukraine
:10:21. > :10:24.to become a part of the West European, US lead, military
:10:25. > :10:32.alliance. It is Cold War mentality returning. I agree, so-called
:10:33. > :10:38.Russian spring in Crimea is a comeback from Cold War. But what the
:10:39. > :10:42.Ukrainian people want, what we would like to have, is we would like to
:10:43. > :10:46.have Ukraine as a prosperous, independent state in Europe. Because
:10:47. > :10:53.we are in Europe, and we believe that our future is in Europe. If we
:10:54. > :10:58.talk about possible measures and military capabilities, Ukraine is
:10:59. > :11:14.one of the strongest partners of NATO, we participated in all NATO
:11:15. > :11:20.issues. In terms of NATO membership in the future, that is up to the
:11:21. > :11:26.Ukrainian people to decide. Viktor Yanukovych was the politician in the
:11:27. > :11:30.Ukraine who stood up against NATO membership, and he won a democratic
:11:31. > :11:37.election, which was regarded as pretty much free and fair by the
:11:38. > :11:49.rest of the world. Are we not in danger of talking ourselves into a
:11:50. > :11:59.conflict, East West Cold War style conflict? I would agree with that. I
:12:00. > :12:03.think when President Yanukovych was elected, and announced that Ukraine
:12:04. > :12:06.was meant to be aligned with no one, including halting the prospect of
:12:07. > :12:11.seeking membership of NATO, NATO accepted that. It was not an issue
:12:12. > :12:15.of whether NATO liked it or not, it was an issue of whether Ukraine and
:12:16. > :12:19.the officially elected government had decided that. This isn't about
:12:20. > :12:23.where the Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, or even whether it signed
:12:24. > :12:27.and Association agreement with the EU, it is really about whether
:12:28. > :12:35.Ukraine as the government, and its people, can make decisions without
:12:36. > :12:38.intimidation or foreign forces on their soil. Let me get back to the
:12:39. > :12:42.issue of missile defence, because I don't want to leave it hanging. As
:12:43. > :12:48.far as I am aware, and I spent a large part of the last four years in
:12:49. > :12:52.NATO working on this, no plan, none whatsoever, for deploying missile
:12:53. > :12:56.assets in Ukraine, or indeed anywhere else besides where we have
:12:57. > :13:02.long said we would, as an alliance, like to see NATO missile defences,
:13:03. > :13:08.which is on Alliance territory, in Romania and Poland. The idea that
:13:09. > :13:12.this is about the deployment of missile defences in Ukraine is
:13:13. > :13:18.really not correct. We have painted some of the strategic, big picture
:13:19. > :13:22.ideas that have been brought into play over the last few days as
:13:23. > :13:28.people have discussed the future of Ukraine. Specifically, Russian
:13:29. > :13:39.forces we know are in control of Crimea, and, Ihor Doldhov, your new
:13:40. > :13:43.PM has suggested that while he will never discuss any change to the
:13:44. > :13:47.sovereignty of Crimea, that is, it must stay Ukrainian, he has said he
:13:48. > :13:51.is prepared to talk about much greater autonomy. So, tell me what
:13:52. > :13:59.you think a compromise over Crimea might look like. It is not about
:14:00. > :14:04.compromise. Ukraine is a multinational country, and yes,
:14:05. > :14:10.Crimea has a very special status within Ukraine. Yes, it is
:14:11. > :14:17.autonomous. Yes, rights of autonomy could be expanded. There is nothing
:14:18. > :14:22.strange in that. Of course, central government in Kiev, and Crimea,
:14:23. > :14:29.should come back to that issue and discuss what could be done. Let me
:14:30. > :14:34.be again very clear, the territory of Crimea is, for example, I am in
:14:35. > :14:38.Brussels now, and Crimea is ten times bigger than Luxembourg, in
:14:39. > :14:48.terms of territory. The population is around 2 million people. 60% or
:14:49. > :14:55.more is ethnic Russian. Yes. More than 300,000 people in Crimea are
:14:56. > :15:00.people who came back, returned, due to one of the very first an
:15:01. > :15:11.important decisions of independent Ukrainian government, keen -- to
:15:12. > :15:20.invite them to go back home from places... From when they were
:15:21. > :15:26.deported by Stalin. The population is therefore a mixture. Of course we
:15:27. > :15:34.have to remember that the economy of Crimea is mostly oriented on
:15:35. > :15:41.tourism. The military presence of Russian troops doesn't help in that
:15:42. > :15:47.sense. Of course local populations wouldn't be happy to have this
:15:48. > :15:54.military presence at the expense of possible incomes and possible
:15:55. > :15:58.tourism, which... Maybe it's for them to decide in a referendum,
:15:59. > :16:01.which is what the Russians are talking about. A form of self
:16:02. > :16:05.determination that they say they are willing to recognise. Recognise
:16:06. > :16:13.what? What I know officially is that, yes, it can be discussed or
:16:14. > :16:19.voted by the population of Crimea during the referendum. But more
:16:20. > :16:28.rights and powers within Ukraine, not about separation. At the same
:16:29. > :16:33.time... Sorry. I just want to switch to Ivo Daalder with this thought. Do
:16:34. > :16:37.you think the new Ukrainian government that came into power
:16:38. > :16:45.after Yanukovych departed the scene have made some fundamental mistakes?
:16:46. > :16:49.For example, the decision to ban the use of Russian as the official
:16:50. > :16:54.second language was later repealed but it was unimportant, symbolic
:16:55. > :16:58.moment. Then the decision to include the very far right politicians as
:16:59. > :17:05.senior ministers in the government. There was also the language which
:17:06. > :17:09.said, we are going to pursue our European future. All of these in
:17:10. > :17:18.different ways were bound to upset Russia. Do you think it is now time
:17:19. > :17:21.for the new Ukrainian government to rethink and maybe reform itself and
:17:22. > :17:25.send signals to the ethnic Russian and Russian speaking population that
:17:26. > :17:33.they are truly seeking to be a government of all Ukrainians? That's
:17:34. > :17:37.exactly what they have been doing from the moment they were in power.
:17:38. > :17:43.They reached out immediately to the party of regions to be part of the
:17:44. > :17:45.government. There was the repeal of a very recently enacted law in
:17:46. > :17:52.regard to Russian languages, which was immediately vetoed. The repeal
:17:53. > :17:57.of that law was vetoed. There has been a willingness to negotiate and
:17:58. > :18:01.talk to all people in all countries around the world. The issue isn't
:18:02. > :18:05.about what the Ukrainian government need to do. The issue is what the
:18:06. > :18:10.Russian government decided. That it could determine what happens in
:18:11. > :18:14.Ukraine, by not only authorising the use of force anywhere in Ukraine but
:18:15. > :18:17.also saying that when any Russian speaking people needed protection
:18:18. > :18:23.from Russian forces, they deployed Russian forces. As long as there is
:18:24. > :18:27.a military power saying they have the right to intervene and has
:18:28. > :18:30.actual forces in the territory, your ability to have a reasonable
:18:31. > :18:36.discussion about the way forward is compromised. That is what is going
:18:37. > :18:39.on here. Not what is happening in Kiev but what is happening in
:18:40. > :18:44.Moscow. That's where the decisions are being made, where the insecurity
:18:45. > :18:51.of Ukraine and Europe and the International order is being
:18:52. > :18:54.affected. Until we get back to an idea that whatever the differences
:18:55. > :18:58.and interests Russia may have in Ukraine, those are not going to be
:18:59. > :19:03.solved by the use or deployment of military forces. We don't have much
:19:04. > :19:09.to talk about. Washington believes it has to talk about potential
:19:10. > :19:13.punishments. Economic sanctions, boycotts and other punitive measures
:19:14. > :19:24.against Vladimir Putin and his government, if he doesn't exceed two
:19:25. > :19:26.western requests and take the military out of their current
:19:27. > :19:33.positions in Crimea. The problem is, you appear to have misjudged... The
:19:34. > :19:36.US government seems to have misjudged the enthusiasm in Europe
:19:37. > :19:44.for punitive sanctions. Well, we will see. It's early days yet.
:19:45. > :19:48.Clearly, all European governments, and the US and Canada, indeed many
:19:49. > :19:53.other governments around the world, believe that what has happened is
:19:54. > :19:58.completely unacceptable. That it's a complete violation of international
:19:59. > :20:05.law, of the Helsinki act, of the UN Charter, of the bilateral and
:20:06. > :20:13.collateral agreements... But those are words which are easy to issue.
:20:14. > :20:17.When we see leaked documents from big -- from the UK government which
:20:18. > :20:21.suggest in London there is little appetite for real trade sanctions,
:20:22. > :20:28.no desire to block Russian access to London as a financial centre, that
:20:29. > :20:31.is the reality. We will see. There is a major meeting of the European
:20:32. > :20:35.heads of state tomorrow in Brussels. That's the time when there is an
:20:36. > :20:42.opportunity to put some of the screws on. We have to make the cost
:20:43. > :20:47.to Mr Putin for having done this. Sorry to interrupt. That is easy for
:20:48. > :20:53.an American to say. You don't have very strong trade ties with Russia.
:20:54. > :20:57.Germany, 40% of its energy comes from Russia. Its biggest trade
:20:58. > :21:08.partner. It's a different scenario in Berlin. I would turn it around.
:21:09. > :21:12.In terms of the vulnerability economically, Russia is far more
:21:13. > :21:16.vulnerable to sanctions than the Europeans. There might be a
:21:17. > :21:21.short-term cost of having real sanctions, in the long-term, we know
:21:22. > :21:29.where the cost lives. I'll tell you what... Sorry. There is a real
:21:30. > :21:33.question here at about what you are willing to do. Right now, the
:21:34. > :21:38.largest exporter of gas to Europe is Norway. The United States is in the
:21:39. > :21:41.middle of a gas revolution, providing new opportunity for new
:21:42. > :21:47.sources of energy. I would argue that we really sit down and think
:21:48. > :21:52.about what is happening. You are talking, if I may, long-term shifts
:21:53. > :21:59.in economic relations. I am talking now. Ihor Dolhov, if we talk
:22:00. > :22:03.vulnerability, the most vulnerable player is Ukraine because your
:22:04. > :22:08.economy is bust. The public finances are bust. You need support now. The
:22:09. > :22:12.EU and US are talking about financial support but the only real
:22:13. > :22:18.support you have in your pocket is from Russia, $15 billion, which is
:22:19. > :22:20.now suspended. The bottom line is, Vladimir Putin has leverage because
:22:21. > :22:28.he knows that Ukraine still needs Russia. I wouldn't put the question
:22:29. > :22:36.like that. Who needs Russia and why. We continue to believe that there is
:22:37. > :22:40.a global community and we need to continue daily business with all
:22:41. > :22:45.players. Yes, Russia is a difficult partner. I remember very well, as
:22:46. > :22:52.well as many, my friends in Brussels, the gas war with Russia.
:22:53. > :22:59.It doesn't help. Yes, Ukraine is vulnerable. Yes, we are dependent.
:23:00. > :23:04.Yes, we have possibilities to decrease this dependence. But, at
:23:05. > :23:08.the same time, this dependence is bilateral because Russia also needs
:23:09. > :23:15.the market to sell its gas or its oil. It just cannot be, I do know,
:23:16. > :23:24.get for nowhere. Somebody has to buy it. The problem is Ukraine continues
:23:25. > :23:29.to pay a price that's higher than... I just want to end with
:23:30. > :23:34.this. You can't change your country's history, you can't change
:23:35. > :23:39.its geography or its economic and cultural relations. The only way out
:23:40. > :23:46.of this crisis is for you to talk and do a deal with Vladimir Putin.
:23:47. > :23:54.We are waiting for this talk and we are open. Ivo Daalder, can it be
:23:55. > :24:01.done? First of all, it requires the Russian government to accept the
:24:02. > :24:05.legitimacy of the government in Kiev. It's hard to talk with a
:24:06. > :24:12.government that's your existence. The change needs to happen in Kiev
:24:13. > :24:18.and in Moscow. The question is, how will we make that happen? OK. Ivo
:24:19. > :24:19.Daalder and Ihor Dolhov, thank you both very much for being on
:24:20. > :24:49.HARDtalk. Good morning. If you heard a rumour
:24:50. > :24:55.that weather conditions are settling down, keep listening. You might not
:24:56. > :24:59.be disappointed. Now, we start with cloud and rain from this weather
:25:00. > :25:02.front that's pushing in from the west. It might be a chilly start in
:25:03. > :25:03.the extreme south-east corner.