:00:00. > :00:00.include 100 Years of Solitude and Love in the Time of Cholera. You are
:00:00. > :00:17.up to date. Now on BBC News, it is HARDtalk. Welcome to HARDtalk.
:00:18. > :00:23.Ukraine, to borrow a phrase from Vladimir Putin, is on the edge of an
:00:24. > :00:26.abyss. The confrontation PVT of government and pro`Russian forces in
:00:27. > :00:32.the East threatens Ukraine's very existence. Who bears responsibility
:00:33. > :00:39.and who is now calling the shots? I'm joined by two guest from
:00:40. > :00:43.Washington, former Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, and from Tel
:00:44. > :00:46.Aviv, Russian opposition leader, Boris Nemstov. Has the Russian
:00:47. > :01:17.President comprehensively outmanoeuvred his enemies?
:01:18. > :01:26.Strobe Talbott in Washington, DC and Boris Nemstov Intel IVF, welcome
:01:27. > :01:34.both of you to HARDtalk. `` in Tel Aviv. Strobe Talbott, I will start
:01:35. > :01:42.with you. Right now, as the Ukraine drama unfolds, it looks like
:01:43. > :01:44.President Putin is on the front foot, the one player who is acting
:01:45. > :01:52.rather than reacting. Would you agree? Yes. But he is acting in a
:01:53. > :01:59.way that is ultimately bad for his own country, not to mention bad for
:02:00. > :02:08.world peace. Do you think he really understands the scale of what he is
:02:09. > :02:17.doing? No. I think he is essentially a highly emotional risk taking
:02:18. > :02:23.tactician. He is not a grand strategist. Yes, he appears to be
:02:24. > :02:27.and in fact in `` in many ways he is, holding the cards in a very
:02:28. > :02:36.deadly game, but that he is playing it day to day and I think he has...
:02:37. > :02:42.People around him encouraging him in this direction and we have to hope
:02:43. > :02:44.in due course, because of sanctions and reactions on the part of the
:02:45. > :02:50.outside world and particularly the West, he will rethink, or at least
:02:51. > :02:56.they will rethink and put it on him. Boris Nemstov, I turn to you. Strobe
:02:57. > :03:00.Talbott gives us the perspective of a senior American diplomat who dealt
:03:01. > :03:07.with Putin and his government from outside. You, of course, deal with
:03:08. > :03:13.Putin from inside. You have been a long`time political opponent of
:03:14. > :03:19.Vladimir Putin. Are you surprised at the decisiveness, the ruthlessness
:03:20. > :03:26.with which Putin has acted over the last several months in Ukraine?
:03:27. > :03:31.First of all, I want to tell that his main goal is to keep power in
:03:32. > :03:43.Russia and to strengthen his power inside the country. Tactically, he
:03:44. > :03:49.won. During the last seven years his popularity dropped from 75% to 40%.
:03:50. > :03:59.But, after occupation and annexation of Crimea, and his popularity inside
:04:00. > :04:08.the country goes up and up and now he has more than 80%. This is
:04:09. > :04:11.tactic. I am not sure he wants to protect Russian people in Crimea and
:04:12. > :04:18.eastern Ukraine, this is a cynical lie. Nobody touched Russian people
:04:19. > :04:25.in Ukraine and eastern parts of Ukraine, in Crimea and in the centre
:04:26. > :04:31.of the country. I think, strategically, he looks like a total
:04:32. > :04:37.loser. Russian economy based mainly on export of oil and gas, mainly to
:04:38. > :04:41.Europe and it is very easy to predict what is happening in the
:04:42. > :04:48.future. I am sure that Europeans will do everything to reduce the
:04:49. > :04:55.dependence from Putin gas and oil and the only way for Putin is to
:04:56. > :05:00.sell oil and gas to China. Putin looks like a Chinese spy. The only
:05:01. > :05:07.chance for him to survive and support Russian economy is to sell,
:05:08. > :05:14.for cheap prices, very cheap prices, Russian gas and oil to
:05:15. > :05:19.China. You both raised big issues, ranging from diplomatic strategy to
:05:20. > :05:24.economic strategy and I want to pursue those through the course of
:05:25. > :05:26.the interview. Before we get that I want to concentrate on one issue
:05:27. > :05:29.which is much more a tactical detail, but nonetheless, very
:05:30. > :05:35.important. Is it clear in your minds, that Vladimir Putin is
:05:36. > :05:41.already using his intelligence and military asset inside eastern
:05:42. > :05:46.Ukraine's that is the allegation coming from Kiev, Washington and
:05:47. > :05:56.other capitals. Where is the evidence to back that up? Let me
:05:57. > :06:01.start with you Strobe Talbott. I don't think it is an arguable
:06:02. > :06:04.proposition. There is massive evidence, photographic and
:06:05. > :06:09.otherwise, that is concrete, that I think makes it almost a delusion to
:06:10. > :06:21.wonder if Putin is going to invade Ukraine. He has invaded Ukraine.
:06:22. > :06:25.Just as he moved Russian troops with their insignia taken off their
:06:26. > :06:31.uniforms into Crimea and used other assets that were already in Crimea
:06:32. > :06:36.to soften that up for annexation, he is doing the same thing in Donetsk
:06:37. > :06:40.and other regions. Remember, there is a fraught intimacy between these
:06:41. > :06:45.two countries. Ostensibly, and in the eyes of the world and under
:06:46. > :06:54.international law, Ukraine is an independent country. However, Putin
:06:55. > :06:57.has scoffed at that idea, as have other Russians, and he is making
:06:58. > :07:01.full use, both of what he can move across the border, without actually
:07:02. > :07:04.having to move tanks and the whole invasion force, and also assets that
:07:05. > :07:12.he has there in that part of eastern Ukraine. Let me ask this, why didn't
:07:13. > :07:15.the West, let's talk about the US, let's talk about NATO, why didn't
:07:16. > :07:20.the US understand Putin's mindset's a mindset which says, you know
:07:21. > :07:25.what, Russia has a legitimate sphere of influence that goes far beyond
:07:26. > :07:33.Russia's own borders. Let's talk it a Eurasian `` let's call it a
:07:34. > :07:36.Eurasian sphere. In 2009, we saw what Putin believed to be Russia's
:07:37. > :07:42.interest projected beyond the border. Why has the US and NATO
:07:43. > :07:50.being taken so surprised `` by such surprise? First of all, we remember
:07:51. > :07:56.with the wisdom of hindsight about what happened when Russia moved in
:07:57. > :08:00.to Georgia back in 2008. There were significant differences there. The
:08:01. > :08:05.Russians, essentially, provoked the Georgian President into provoking
:08:06. > :08:10.them, giving them a flimsy but usable excuse. Also, when Russia
:08:11. > :08:17.moved into Georgia, it did not annex XP two on claims that were in
:08:18. > :08:29.question. Neither of which, by the way, were dominated by Russian
:08:30. > :08:34.populations. They did not make those two enclaves into extensions of the
:08:35. > :08:38.Russian state itself. That said, with the wisdom of hindsight, the
:08:39. > :08:44.invasion of Georgia in 2008 was a trial run to see if the Westwood
:08:45. > :08:53.react with sustained and effective sanctions `` the West would react.
:08:54. > :08:59.The West has missed red Putin and underestimated his ambitions and
:09:00. > :09:04.intentions for years `` miss read. Let me go to my second point. I
:09:05. > :09:11.think Putin was surprised by what he ended up deciding to do. Boris might
:09:12. > :09:17.have another view on this and he certainly knows Putin in his country
:09:18. > :09:23.much better than I do, but my guess is that when he was presiding over
:09:24. > :09:27.his moment of glory in the Sochi Winter Olympics, he wasn't saying,
:09:28. > :09:29.I'm going from Sochi to Moscow to order the annexation of Crimea, he
:09:30. > :09:34.was gobsmacked and utterly shocked I what happened with the overthrow of
:09:35. > :09:43.the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine. Remember, Putin's overall means of
:09:44. > :09:46.dealing with peripheral states, leaving aside China, and I love what
:09:47. > :09:51.Boris said about him being a Chinese spy, that will get headlines
:09:52. > :09:55.somewhere in the world, but all the other peripheral states, Putin wants
:09:56. > :10:02.to keep them as vassal state of the Russian state. He thought he had
:10:03. > :10:05.that we'd Ukraine, and then of course came the people power that
:10:06. > :10:11.overthrew Yanukovych, and that is when he decided. Thank you for that
:10:12. > :10:17.Strobe Talbott. Boris Nemstov, I want to quote some of your own words
:10:18. > :10:23.that you have used in the recent past. You said, if one does not
:10:24. > :10:26.punch Vladimir Putin in the mouth, he will continue to act like a thug.
:10:27. > :10:27.Is it your contention that Western powers, including Strobe Talbott's
:10:28. > :10:39.government in Washington, DC haven't understood that? Putin believes that
:10:40. > :10:44.Europeans are very much dependent on Russian energy resources and that is
:10:45. > :10:48.why Germany and other countries need to respond on aggression and
:10:49. > :10:57.occupation and annexation. It happens to be true, so full that for
:10:58. > :11:02.very good reason. I believe that the long`term perspective is negative
:11:03. > :11:08.for Putin, because it is easy to predict what is happening in the gas
:11:09. > :11:14.market in Europe. I'm sure the monopolisation and competition from
:11:15. > :11:19.Qatar and, in the future, exports from America, shale gas from Norway
:11:20. > :11:28.and so on, I am sure Europeans will do everything to avoid dependence on
:11:29. > :11:36.Putin. It is very clear. I am sure the West will do everything...
:11:37. > :11:41.(CROSSTALK) you are saying that Europeans, it is true, are guided by
:11:42. > :11:44.certain values, but at the same time they are not ready to make any
:11:45. > :11:54.sacrifices. That was you just a few days ago. The next point, Putin
:11:55. > :12:03.believes that Americans have no real political will. Not to implement
:12:04. > :12:07.real sanctions against Putin. `` will to implement. He believes the
:12:08. > :12:12.American administration is very weak, has no idea how to push him
:12:13. > :12:19.very seriously. The American economy has a lot of albums, better set of
:12:20. > :12:22.the budget and so on. And, the Americans have no idea how to stop
:12:23. > :12:27.aggression `` a lot of problems. That is why he feels himself quite
:12:28. > :12:32.comfortable because Europeans depend on his energy and the American
:12:33. > :12:37.administration is not so song to protect the West and east's
:12:38. > :12:48.interest. I'm struggling to see where is wrong. I think that
:12:49. > :12:54.American administration is weak now, as far as relationship with Putin is
:12:55. > :12:57.concerned. I am not sure that such kind of policy will be continued,
:12:58. > :13:03.because there is public opinion in America, Europe, everywhere, and if
:13:04. > :13:10.no one. Him, he will occupy not only Ukraine, but after that maybe Baltic
:13:11. > :13:15.states, maybe Caucasus states, and maybe Kazakhstan. I don't think such
:13:16. > :13:21.behaviour will be accepted in the west `` West. Let's turn to Strobe
:13:22. > :13:24.Talbott, because one thing you know pretty well is that Washington
:13:25. > :13:29.politics when it comes to international affairs. Thomas
:13:30. > :13:33.Freeman, commentator of some renown in the New York Times, said the
:13:34. > :13:39.fundamental question is, is the West is serious about standing up to
:13:40. > :13:46.Putinism and backing the Ukrainian government. What is the answer? I
:13:47. > :13:51.know my own country but I don't know the future. I understand what Horace
:13:52. > :13:56.has said about anxiety. By the way, it is not just among Russians, but
:13:57. > :14:05.some of us in the West as well, about whether the US and it west
:14:06. > :14:09.European allies are up to, first of all recognising how the world has
:14:10. > :14:13.changed as a result of what Putin has done in Crimea and is now doing
:14:14. > :14:20.in Ukraine. I think this is going to be a testing point for President
:14:21. > :14:26.Obama's legacy. He made a strong speech in Brussels on all of this.
:14:27. > :14:38.He has yet to use the pulpit here in the US. Putin, in particular, has a
:14:39. > :14:44.Russian quality. It is true in the past of him often playing his hand.
:14:45. > :14:47.He is so cocky and sure of himself and flagrant in what he is doing, I
:14:48. > :14:53.think he is, and I certainly hope, the effect is going to be, that he
:14:54. > :15:00.galvanises the attention and responses of the West, notably in
:15:01. > :15:04.the US. You talk about Obama in Brussels, one thing I remember about
:15:05. > :15:06.him in Brussels is that he sent the clear signal that he believed
:15:07. > :15:18.Ukraine could not be and should not be a member of NATO. Isn't NATO and
:15:19. > :15:25.indeed the EU in Ukraine's position in NATO at the heart of this crisis?
:15:26. > :15:28.If there was the position where everyone acknowledged Ukraine would
:15:29. > :15:32.not be part of the NATO military alliance and also that Ukraine would
:15:33. > :15:36.accept a federalisation, then Moscow would have what it wanted, Ukraine
:15:37. > :15:42.would be a unified state and everybody, frankly, could go home at
:15:43. > :15:46.it happier, couldn't they? The President did not rule out the
:15:47. > :15:51.prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine or for that matter, any
:15:52. > :15:55.other state. I want to get to Boris Nemtsov in a second. But Strobe
:15:56. > :16:02.Talbott, I have to pick up something you just that. You indicated that
:16:03. > :16:07.you the right, at some point, to join NATO. Isn't this issue of NATO
:16:08. > :16:12.at the very hard of the unfolding crisis? I want to go back to the
:16:13. > :16:18.words of one of the great architect of American post World War II
:16:19. > :16:25.foreign policy, George Kennan. Back in 1998, gave this warning. He said
:16:26. > :16:29.that NATO was eastward expansion was the beginning of a new Cold War. The
:16:30. > :16:35.Russians, he said, will gradually react to it adversely. We are making
:16:36. > :16:40.a tragic mistake. And there was no reason for this. Surely, it is time
:16:41. > :16:47.to learn the lessons of those mistakes. You are involved in those
:16:48. > :16:54.mistakes. Well, I don't agree it was a mistake. In some ways, the current
:16:55. > :17:00.situation, dangerous as it is, is an indication of the decision to expand
:17:01. > :17:06.NATO. A while back, Boris was talking about the possibility that
:17:07. > :17:12.Britain would stay on a roll, he would not only basically bring
:17:13. > :17:19.Ukraine back under the suppression of Moscow by that he would invade,
:17:20. > :17:22.at least part of the Baltic states. I would suppose that that that is
:17:23. > :17:27.not going to happen in the Baltic states. Not least because all three
:17:28. > :17:33.of them are now members of NATO. And NATO... It indicates one of the
:17:34. > :17:39.reasons for expanding NATO which was a hedge against Russia Breaking Bad
:17:40. > :17:42.in the future. Also the expansion of NATO narrowed what was otherwise a
:17:43. > :17:48.security vacuum that would have included all of the former countries
:17:49. > :17:52.of the Warsaw Pact as well as the former republics of the USSR if NATO
:17:53. > :17:59.had not offered membership to those countries. Remember, it was for a
:18:00. > :18:02.lot of post`Cold War purposes. Vladimir Putin has given another
:18:03. > :18:08.reason for NATO to expand which is there will have to be an element of
:18:09. > :18:10.containment. That doesn't mean it is a today issue, it means we should
:18:11. > :18:19.not close the door on NATO expansion. George Kennan was against
:18:20. > :18:24.the founding of NATO. He was against the creation and existence of NATO.
:18:25. > :18:30.He was a great prophet but he was not infallible. Boris Nemtsov, I
:18:31. > :18:33.want to dig deeper into what is happening in Russia today. You told
:18:34. > :18:37.me that you acknowledge that Vladimir Putin is enjoying
:18:38. > :18:42.unparalleled popularity. He is 80% in the polls today. Hasn't
:18:43. > :18:44.everything that has happened, the annexation of Crimea, what is
:18:45. > :18:50.happening right now in Eastern Ukraine, hasn't it provided more
:18:51. > :18:55.proof of his ability to use nationalism, maybe even call it
:18:56. > :18:59.nearly imperialism to strengthen his own position and it has revealed the
:19:00. > :19:12.true weakness again of your Russian opposition movement. Unfortunately,
:19:13. > :19:18.you are right. After the Crimean annexation, we had huge changes
:19:19. > :19:29.inside the country. What we had before, we had typical corrupted
:19:30. > :19:35.authoritarian regime. With political prisoners but it was not so strong
:19:36. > :19:44.pressure to civil society fools at what I mean, Pigeon `` Vladimir
:19:45. > :19:52.Putin. Now, if you look at what has happened inside the country, strong
:19:53. > :20:06.pressure to absolutely unpolitical figures, for example Russian
:20:07. > :20:11.singers, Russian writers, there is pressure in creased and this is
:20:12. > :20:15.absolutely new. It looks like transformation from authoritarian
:20:16. > :20:20.style to a real dictatorship. Everybody who is in the opposition
:20:21. > :20:25.has huge risk to be in jail, including me. What is more sad story
:20:26. > :20:34.is that not only politicians are real independent persons look the
:20:35. > :20:37.same risks. Sorry to interrupted but I just thinking of a reality that
:20:38. > :20:42.you have to live with and that is that Vladimir Putin could very well
:20:43. > :20:53.be in power in the Kremlin until what is it, Twenty20 for. That is
:20:54. > :20:59.the reality that is a prediction. Let Boris speak. This is my
:21:00. > :21:08.prediction, you are right. In my biography very well. I want to tell
:21:09. > :21:13.you that he wants to be the president for life. Especially,
:21:14. > :21:19.after what has happened in Ukraine and the Olympics. White is a vis?
:21:20. > :21:24.You went on to say, in my opinion the west will survive what is the
:21:25. > :21:27.reimposition of an Iron Curtain. For now, I cannot tell you whether
:21:28. > :21:32.Russia will survive it. Seems to me that right now, Vladimir Putin can
:21:33. > :21:38.survey the scene and be very confident that he is going to
:21:39. > :21:43.survive it. Can't he? Well, let look what happened with Russian economy
:21:44. > :21:50.and what is happening inside. His discussion and his rhetoric about
:21:51. > :21:57.federalisation of Ukraine. He was to get Eastern Ukraine and organise
:21:58. > :22:05.annexation of Eastern Ukraine, not only Crimea. He wants to sell
:22:06. > :22:09.Russian energy to China and he wants to rebuild his economy from trade
:22:10. > :22:16.with the west to trade with China. This is his main strategy. I believe
:22:17. > :22:27.that this is a huge mistake, strategic mistake. Because I am sure
:22:28. > :22:32.that China is not so happy to buy for $400 Russian gas and Dubai oil
:22:33. > :22:37.for international prices. I am sure the Chinese will press him very much
:22:38. > :22:44.to reduce prices and to reduce incomes of cash to the Russian
:22:45. > :22:51.economy. I am sure that the Russian currency will continue to depreciate
:22:52. > :22:57.and economic problems will arise. His popularity now is really more
:22:58. > :23:03.than 80% but I am sure that two years later, we will discuss what is
:23:04. > :23:08.happening the Vladimir Putin economy. I see that economy will be
:23:09. > :23:14.in very bad shape. Boris Nemtsov, thanks for that. We are almost out
:23:15. > :23:22.of time. Boris Nemtsov believes the economy will be booted `` B
:23:23. > :23:29.Pigeon's Achilles' heel. What is going to be Russia's fate. Given
:23:30. > :23:37.what happens today in Ukraine, how to you seek Russia in ten years? I
:23:38. > :23:46.see Vladimir Putin's policies being catastrophic for Russia. Because
:23:47. > :23:52.Putinism seems to be the order of the day, it does not mean it is
:23:53. > :23:57.forever. I think he will pass from the scene and I think people like
:23:58. > :24:02.Boris Nemtsov are going to be the representatives of Russia in the
:24:03. > :24:05.future. Well, as Boris Nemtsov said, we can reconvene in two or three
:24:06. > :24:10.years and see whether those pictures will come true. For now, Strobe
:24:11. > :24:12.Talbott in Washington, Boris Nemtsov in Tel Aviv, thank you for being on
:24:13. > :24:41.HARDtalk. For many, the long Easter weekend
:24:42. > :24:46.has now got under way but what are the weather prospects? For Good
:24:47. > :24:49.Friday and also Saturday, the weather is looking fair and most of
:24:50. > :24:54.us was the sunshine and mainly dry weather. However, it goes on a
:24:55. > :24:55.downward spiral and by Sunday across parts of