:00:00. > :00:12.said that America had lost a national treasure `` former. Now it
:00:13. > :00:19.is time for HARDtalk. Welcome to HARDtalk. I am Stephen Sackur. How
:00:20. > :00:23.far can Vladimir Putin and his iron fist foreign`policy? Crimea is his
:00:24. > :00:28.but to Russia's next move in eastern but to Russia's next move in eastern
:00:29. > :00:32.Ukraine is much less as is the extent of their neo` imperialist
:00:33. > :00:37.ambition. My guest is Sergey Karaganov, one of Russia's most
:00:38. > :00:43.influential foreign`policy thinkers and until recently an advisor to
:00:44. > :00:45.President Putin. Is restoring Russian greatness a coherent
:00:46. > :01:16.strategy? Sergey Karaganov, welcome to
:01:17. > :01:22.HARDtalk. Beginning if you would by describing for me the mindset of the
:01:23. > :01:31.foreign`policy strategists in and around the Kremlin. You were one of
:01:32. > :01:39.them. What is the mindset? For the last 20 years, Russia has dealt with
:01:40. > :01:45.powers that were defeated but we have never considered ourselves
:01:46. > :01:53.defeated. After 1000 years of history, we thought that we had won
:01:54. > :01:58.over communism in the Second World War. We were counted as a defeated
:01:59. > :02:09.power and later in the European Union, I went further and further
:02:10. > :02:13.east despite our arguments against our interests. If I may extrapolate
:02:14. > :02:19.from that, you are suggesting that the key motivator for Russian
:02:20. > :02:24.foreign`policy is anger coming frustration and a sense of
:02:25. > :02:35.humiliation? That sense of humiliation was very much there.
:02:36. > :02:44.Absolutely. It was very much there and we were very much afraid of
:02:45. > :02:50.verse I `` Versailles syndrome growing in our country. We had to
:02:51. > :02:53.encourage our foreign policy not to go that far and go against Russian
:02:54. > :03:01.interests but we were not listened to. We had to use our iron fist. You
:03:02. > :03:10.look pretty pleased with that characterisation. No, I did not like
:03:11. > :03:15.the idea. In the end coming when Georgia attacked me we had fight and
:03:16. > :03:22.people were killed. But unfortunately, the story was not
:03:23. > :03:28.over and so again, a replay of that game and this time with the
:03:29. > :03:36.Ukraine. Ukraine was much more sensitive in terms of part of the
:03:37. > :03:39.world for Russia. One would assume that whether we are talking about
:03:40. > :03:48.foreign`policy makers in Washington, DC or Beijing or Delhi or Moscow, in
:03:49. > :03:53.the end, rationality and a clear idea of self`preservation would be
:03:54. > :03:58.the key motivator but it seems that in Russia today, it is much more
:03:59. > :04:03.about the motion. You have compared feelings in Russia to the period in
:04:04. > :04:08.Germany after the First World War settlement which left them so bitter
:04:09. > :04:13.and resentful and frustrated. Emotion is a dangerous thing, is it
:04:14. > :04:20.not to driver foreign`policy? It is, of course. The foreign`policy
:04:21. > :04:25.establishment to which I belong have been trying to persuade the citizens
:04:26. > :04:33.that it is bad by sometimes reforming or persuading and
:04:34. > :04:40.sometimes by force like when we went to war which no one advised us to
:04:41. > :04:47.do. It was a terrible cost, a small victory. You are suggesting to me
:04:48. > :04:50.that you are a rationalist who is trying to rein in the emotions from
:04:51. > :04:56.Moscow. I'm wondering if that is really true because after all, you
:04:57. > :05:04.were the foreign`policy thinker who develop this idea, went back to the
:05:05. > :05:11.1990s of using ethnic Russians in the post`Soviet space as a sort of
:05:12. > :05:19.fifth column. That was your idea. That is exactly the problem. I said
:05:20. > :05:25.that we should look at our Russian brothers not as a liability, like
:05:26. > :05:31.the Jews of our country that they would be successful. And you said
:05:32. > :05:41.that we should control them as Russia. No, I said that there was a
:05:42. > :05:47.doctrine that Russians should control them and should use them and
:05:48. > :05:53.to defend them but I never said that. That was precisely the premise
:05:54. > :05:59.that Vladimir Putin used. Over the past years I have been lambasted for
:06:00. > :06:09.that doctrine but I did not say that because I was sympathetic to our
:06:10. > :06:14.Estonian friends. The fact is that Vladimir Putin has used this notion
:06:15. > :06:16.that Russia has a duty to protect the ethnic Russians and Russian
:06:17. > :06:22.speakers in eastern Ukraine wallowing on from Crimea as the
:06:23. > :06:33.absolute foundation of his foreign`policy. It is not the only
:06:34. > :06:37.foreign`policy. I must also say that it British people had not rejected
:06:38. > :06:47.their people abroad, they would not be a respected country. ``
:06:48. > :06:56.protected. Guest coming but these ethnic Russians, they are Georgians
:06:57. > :07:05.or Ukrainians, a have a nationality. The game is to stop expansion. There
:07:06. > :07:12.is an on finished Cold War in Europe. Russia had been proposing
:07:13. > :07:18.this for 20 years. So this is the power plate that Russia is involved
:07:19. > :07:25.in. Invading sovereign countries with which you have signed
:07:26. > :07:31.treaties, you just ignore that. We tell them that they are making a
:07:32. > :07:37.terrible mistake by trying to involve the Ukrainians fear of
:07:38. > :07:42.interest. Making them into cannon fodder, our Western friends will
:07:43. > :07:52.remember that and they knew what they were doing. They sacrificed
:07:53. > :07:55.Ukraine. It is an odd phrase to talk about the West using Ukraine as
:07:56. > :08:09.cannon fodder when it is Russia... I am sorry, but when the West got the
:08:10. > :08:11.Ukraine involved in NATO, then they had their relationship with the
:08:12. > :08:18.European Union which was absolutely senseless. It is against the
:08:19. > :08:23.interests of some Europeans. Ukraine was doomed the day that was
:08:24. > :08:27.offered. You say Ukraine doomed, let's talk about a confusing
:08:28. > :08:33.situation today. Vladimir Putin has said that he respects the result of
:08:34. > :08:38.the Ukrainian presidential election, he has refused to add his
:08:39. > :08:44.legitimacy to the separatist referendums that we saw in the east
:08:45. > :08:52.of the country so there are people, including for example, 14 and
:08:53. > :08:56.ambassador in the Ukraine that the effort to destabilize the Ukraine is
:08:57. > :09:04.losing steam. Do you agree? I think unfortunately, the common effort of
:09:05. > :09:10.the West has succeeded already. Ukraine is profoundly destabilized.
:09:11. > :09:14.It had been a semi` failed state and now it is a failed state. The only
:09:15. > :09:20.question is when and how it can return to order, hopefully with the
:09:21. > :09:24.help from the east and west but if we continue to fight over them, it
:09:25. > :09:32.is doomed to disintegrate into pieces. It is already in a Civil
:09:33. > :09:36.War. You call it a Civil War and speak with weary resignation about
:09:37. > :09:45.the fate of the Ukraine but the fact is that Moscow is not an observer
:09:46. > :09:53.but a player in this, I'm agent provocateur `` on. We know that
:09:54. > :09:57.Russians are crossing into Ukraine to fight with the separatists and
:09:58. > :10:07.that the head of the Council in Donetsk is actually a Russian. The
:10:08. > :10:13.we are a very numerous nation. And none of this happened by accident.
:10:14. > :10:18.There are many lies in the story and I do not know the truth but what I
:10:19. > :10:24.know for sure is that the local insurgents hate Kiev because of
:10:25. > :10:31.their policies. They were humiliated by the way not only Russian speakers
:10:32. > :10:37.but Ukrainian speakers were treated. They do not want the
:10:38. > :10:43.government in Kiev to govern them. 58% of Ukrainians in the east of the
:10:44. > :10:50.country, in .net and Luhansk do want to stay in Ukraine. Sure and that is
:10:51. > :11:00.why Russia is not supporting their cries for independence. So Russia is
:11:01. > :11:06.going to backtrack? No, Crimea had an overwhelming majority of people
:11:07. > :11:10.who wanted to be Russian. So we are trying to control that to the
:11:11. > :11:17.largest extent possible but no one controls the insurgents anymore. We
:11:18. > :11:21.began by speaking about the mindset in Moscow and you said it was a
:11:22. > :11:26.sense of humiliation fuelling what we have seen over the last few
:11:27. > :11:32.months. Would you accept that when people look at what Moscow can
:11:33. > :11:38.offer, and the politics and economy of Russia compared to what they see
:11:39. > :11:43.within the European Union, Russia is not a very attractive offer right
:11:44. > :11:51.now, is it? I agree. Unfortunately we are not that well developed. We
:11:52. > :11:55.are not that rich. Hopefully we will overcome and become something
:11:56. > :12:08.better. You were not free or democratic. It is possible for me to
:12:09. > :12:12.speak my mind. You are an ally of Vladimir Putin. Sometimes I am a
:12:13. > :12:18.very bitter opponent of my government. Not in this particular
:12:19. > :12:22.case. The reason why is that my country is waging a political war
:12:23. > :12:29.and so I will be with my country this time. It has to be that way,
:12:30. > :12:35.does it? Even if you have serious doubts about the motivation?
:12:36. > :12:41.Absolutely. My country has been attacked politically so I am
:12:42. > :12:48.defending it. It is a very defensive mindset. A negative mindset. No, it
:12:49. > :12:54.is a positive mindset for Russians. Secondly, Russia has been built on
:12:55. > :13:01.one idea and that is depends. Over many years. How could you possibly
:13:02. > :13:11.do away with that even if you wanted to? I am a very relaxed man but I
:13:12. > :13:15.know my people. But when you talk about Russia and its future, you
:13:16. > :13:21.can't just talk about territory, you have to talk about the economy. The
:13:22. > :13:25.problem with Russia today is that it is fundamentally a one track
:13:26. > :13:30.economy. It has commodity resources and not much else. Every indication
:13:31. > :13:37.suggests that what has happened in the Ukraine crisis with the outflow
:13:38. > :13:41.of capital from Moscow will have very serious and long`term damaging
:13:42. > :13:51.effects on the Russian economy. We have been on a downturn we are
:13:52. > :13:57.relaxed. We have to rest after almost 100 years of suffering. The
:13:58. > :14:02.communists during the revolution, I am extremely unhappy with the
:14:03. > :14:06.liberals and we are doing nothing but that is our business, I'm sorry
:14:07. > :14:13.and we will have to do that or else we will disintegrate. But you see
:14:14. > :14:17.that if we mixed economy and politics and the foreign`policy of
:14:18. > :14:20.Vladimir Putin... You have said that we have got it wrong, that our
:14:21. > :14:24.foreign policy is counterproductive but I put it to you that Vladimir
:14:25. > :14:30.Putin will care when his economy is flatlining. There will be a
:14:31. > :14:37.stalemate this year and $50 billion worth of capital will be fleeing the
:14:38. > :14:43.country. Vladimir Putin will care. The problem is that we have
:14:44. > :14:47.legitimate private property because of the way privatisation was done in
:14:48. > :14:50.the 1990s. These are different problems. Capital was running
:14:51. > :15:04.anyway. this notion you have that the West
:15:05. > :15:11.can make sanctions and it will make no difference. But it will make
:15:12. > :15:19.differences. The way the West has been using the sanctions is as a way
:15:20. > :15:25.to undermine the long`term position of the West. The West has created
:15:26. > :15:30.the monetary, judicial and system... And they are using that. I
:15:31. > :15:34.dare economies like the Germans and the Americans can withstand whatever
:15:35. > :15:44.cost come from imposing sanctions on Russia better than Russia can. Yes,
:15:45. > :15:51.but in the long`term... We need an external shock so we can start
:15:52. > :15:57.working again. That is precisely the language used by the most extreme
:15:58. > :16:01.elements in Moscow today. One of them has said, we need to shop our
:16:02. > :16:07.own citizens to the point where economic relations with the West are
:16:08. > :16:09.completely abandoned. `` shock. And then we will realise we need to
:16:10. > :16:15.purify and cleanse our nation from within. When he talks about the
:16:16. > :16:21.fundamental pillar of Russian policy going forward as anti`American
:16:22. > :16:27.is... No. And he is also anti`European, by the way, but I
:16:28. > :16:35.think we have to come to our senses. The nation has been corrupted by the
:16:36. > :16:42.flow of easy money. But that is our problem and we will have to do, to
:16:43. > :16:46.deal with that. I'm not sure if it has anything to do with the crisis
:16:47. > :17:00.in European security that we call the crisis in Ukraine. But what is
:17:01. > :17:04.Russia's way forward? You have talked about a kind of Weimar
:17:05. > :17:07.sentiment in your country, anger at how would you have been treated, but
:17:08. > :17:13.you say that the extremist and build on that are wrong. What is the way
:17:14. > :17:21.forward? We have not been investing in our country for 20 years. That is
:17:22. > :17:27.the way. Education and moral education. And then, of course, a
:17:28. > :17:38.return to the rule of law. We have our programmes. Unfortunately, until
:17:39. > :17:44.now, these problems were not being listened to by various people.
:17:45. > :17:52.People are relaxed. I dare say they are relaxed in the Kremlin. I'm not.
:17:53. > :17:59.Some Russians looking at the economic situation going forward
:18:00. > :18:04.might not be so relaxed. I hope they start to understand that we have to
:18:05. > :18:08.work. I want to return to the internal dynamics in Russia in a
:18:09. > :18:11.moment but before we do, because you have such long experience in foreign
:18:12. > :18:17.policy strategy and because you have advised Putin, I want you to tell me
:18:18. > :18:22.what you think he sees as Russia's best interests now, trying to
:18:23. > :18:27.somehow rebuild relationships with Washington and European capitals or,
:18:28. > :18:33.as he seems to be doing these last few weeks, pivoting to raging? First
:18:34. > :18:41.of all, pivoting to Asia is good news. We have not been using the
:18:42. > :18:54.possibilities, which were open and have been open in Asia for 15 years
:18:55. > :18:57.for the simple reason that we were Eurocentric first and that we had
:18:58. > :19:02.such little money, second. Hopefully we will open to the East in China,
:19:03. > :19:07.where the markets are. That is good news. It may be good news if it is
:19:08. > :19:13.serious but why should one take seriously this means that Russia and
:19:14. > :19:15.China are developing a new and powerful alliance when we have seen
:19:16. > :19:21.over decades dispute over borders and regional issues always undermine
:19:22. > :19:25.trust between your country and China? I don't think we will have an
:19:26. > :19:31.alliance but a very close relationship. The only country with
:19:32. > :19:39.which China has no problems if Russia and vice`versa. China is a
:19:40. > :19:45.global power that is growing and Russia is in decline. That is the
:19:46. > :19:52.future. We are more equal than they are for the reason that sometimes
:19:53. > :19:58.Putin is number one and not the Chinese president. You don't believe
:19:59. > :20:07.that, do you? You don't believe Putin exercises more power? I mean
:20:08. > :20:13.that his base is shrinking. That is a problem. We have to fix the base.
:20:14. > :20:21.But before that, we have to have a secure front with the West and that
:20:22. > :20:28.front has becoming insecure again and again. Which takes us back to
:20:29. > :20:40.where we started, the iron fist. And then to build and signed a peace
:20:41. > :20:45.treaty so we can be secure and friendly with the West. You don't
:20:46. > :20:50.have that many friends in the West at the moment. We do have friends.
:20:51. > :20:57.Unfortunately, we thought that we had security. I was only saying that
:20:58. > :21:04.the West has not finished the Cold War. Perhaps Moscow cannot get rid
:21:05. > :21:13.of the Cold War mentality. Well, unfortunately, the Cold War was also
:21:14. > :21:20.in Moscow but most of the Cold War was in the West and the expansion of
:21:21. > :21:28.NATO was a clear`cut policy, a hostile policy. We were told that it
:21:29. > :21:37.was not against us while people were looking in our eyes. Like if Russia
:21:38. > :21:42.put a battleship on the River Thames in front of Westminster and said it
:21:43. > :21:48.is not against you. Your message to the new president in Ukraine is that
:21:49. > :21:52.you will never be allowed to join European and western institutions
:21:53. > :21:57.like nature and EU and that the state will always, because Moscow
:21:58. > :22:10.insists upon it, the deeply fragmented. Is that right? No. If
:22:11. > :22:16.they are able to have a more or less stable state after the past 20
:22:17. > :22:20.years, do your best. A peaceful Ukraine is our great hope.
:22:21. > :22:25.Unfortunately, Ukraine has failed as a viable state. As for NATO
:22:26. > :22:34.membership, that is exactly what I would say to them stop never? Never.
:22:35. > :22:38.Before we finish, one final thought. You have set the scene on a mindset
:22:39. > :22:43.in Moscow that blames so much on the West and Western policy. Is it not
:22:44. > :22:47.the case that actually the Soviet system collapse from within and it
:22:48. > :22:52.is very like that the Putin system will collapse from within as well?
:22:53. > :22:57.If you look at demographic decline, corruption across the economy and
:22:58. > :23:01.judiciary, or dysfunctional politics and economy dominated by the state,
:23:02. > :23:06.the oligarchy... Russia does not have a good, long`term future. I
:23:07. > :23:13.would say that I have lived long enough in my country. We collapsed
:23:14. > :23:21.in the 1980s. We collapsed in the 1990s. Somehow miraculously, we have
:23:22. > :23:33.survived. We grew from the ashes. 1999, my country was a failed state.
:23:34. > :23:37.We can acknowledge that. If the revolution had started there, it
:23:38. > :23:44.would have finished. I believe the only explanation that we survived
:23:45. > :23:52.was that the Almighty decided to help us. I want to pin you down. Yes
:23:53. > :24:01.or no. Do you think the trajectory of Putin's Russia is that of
:24:02. > :24:08.strength and success or not? It will end but not yet. We have to leave it
:24:09. > :24:34.there. Thank you for joining us on HARDtalk. It has been a very grey
:24:35. > :24:41.and wet damp few days across much of the country. However, conditions
:24:42. > :24:45.will improve later in the week. This area of low pressure will be with us
:24:46. > :24:47.again over the course of Thursday, bringing rain too much of