:00:00. > :00:15.That is it. You are up to date. Now on BBC News, it's time for HARDtalk.
:00:16. > :00:18.Welcome to HARDtalk. Vladimir Putin is reported to have
:00:19. > :00:24.said he could take the Ukrainian capital Kiev in two weeks if he
:00:25. > :00:26.wanted to. As he offers increasingly brazen support to the pro`Russian
:00:27. > :00:37.rebels in eastern Ukraine, his message to the West is clear, don't
:00:38. > :00:40.mess with Russia. My guest today is senior Ukrainian diplomat, Olexander
:00:41. > :01:11.Scherba. Can Kiev afford to risk all`out war with Moscow?
:01:12. > :01:23.Olexander Scherba, in Kiev, welcome to HARDtalk. Hello. It seems to me
:01:24. > :01:29.your government has experienced a dramatic reality check in the last
:01:30. > :01:33.week or two. It seems you believed it could be the separatist rebels
:01:34. > :01:39.militarily and now that looks like a major missed judgement. Would you
:01:40. > :01:44.accept that. `` Woodya accept that? I don't know whether you can talk
:01:45. > :01:49.about it as a major missed judgement. We played with the cards
:01:50. > :01:55.in our hands and we were basically winning this ward as you pointed out
:01:56. > :02:01.and you are absolutely correct. But, it is one thing to fight the
:02:02. > :02:04.terrorists to enjoy Russia's support and another thing to fight Russia
:02:05. > :02:10.who enjoys the support of terrorists. We have no alternative
:02:11. > :02:16.but to fight back. We have only one Ukraine. It wasn't our choice, this
:02:17. > :02:21.war. After a thousand options, this would be the last one we would pick.
:02:22. > :02:27.The reality is we have to fight back. I come back to the point about
:02:28. > :02:34.this judgement. Did you and the government ever seriously think that
:02:35. > :02:38.Moscow would simply watch as your forces rolled into and right through
:02:39. > :02:43.Luhansk, Donetsk and the other cities currently in the control of
:02:44. > :02:53.the rebels? `` missed judgement. We always knew that the full`fledged
:02:54. > :03:04.invasion was real. It was an option that we had to be aware of. But, we
:03:05. > :03:10.were hoping that the sanctions and the warning of further sanctions
:03:11. > :03:17.from the West would suffice to stop Putin. But, basically, the signal he
:03:18. > :03:26.is sending by moving in his regular troops is not only, don't mess with
:03:27. > :03:31.Russia, but that he doesn't care about what the West says. And, the
:03:32. > :03:37.West should maybe change the tactics on Ukraine. We will talk about what
:03:38. > :03:43.you want to see from the West in a second bite you blithely talk about
:03:44. > :03:48.the reality of Russian troops. Of course, Moscow denies that. They
:03:49. > :03:54.have acknowledged a few men, by accident, ended up on Ukrainian
:03:55. > :03:59.territory. They insist there is no wholesale invasion by thousands of
:04:00. > :04:08.Russian troops. What is your proof of your absolute proof that Moscow
:04:09. > :04:12.is lying about that? `` your proof, your absolute proof. First of all,
:04:13. > :04:18.there are satellite pictures. Second of all, there are Youtube... Youtube
:04:19. > :04:24.is flooded with reels of Russian tanks rolling in. Not everything you
:04:25. > :04:30.see on Youtube is quite what it seems, is it? I am sure that you
:04:31. > :04:35.know that. Third of all, Russian troops aren't really concerned with
:04:36. > :04:41.secrecy. Almost every second, Russian soldiers have an account on
:04:42. > :04:47.social networks and they are blurting out openly where they are
:04:48. > :04:53.and what they are doing. So, these three... The first evidence is the
:04:54. > :04:59.most important. The satellite pictures from Nato which leaves no
:05:00. > :05:07.room for any other interpretation. Russian troops are in Ukraine. They
:05:08. > :05:11.are a big. By the way, the first proof is the words by the
:05:12. > :05:18.separatists themselves, their so`called Prime Minister just one
:05:19. > :05:24.week ago thanked Russia on camera publicly for 1200 troops and 70
:05:25. > :05:30.military vehicles supplied to Donetsk People's Republic. That was
:05:31. > :05:36.one or two weeks ago. You can imagine it is much bigger. Maybe,
:05:37. > :05:41.the ultimate proof, although it is something that you just have to take
:05:42. > :05:45.as read in a sense, is that the total balance of military power in
:05:46. > :05:51.the east has changed. In recent days, your forces... Absolutely.
:05:52. > :05:58.Your forces have been made to retreat from Luhansk Airport, a
:05:59. > :06:04.major strategic air port. We have seen barrier poll, an important
:06:05. > :06:09.strategic city, under threat. It is obvious that your Ukrainian military
:06:10. > :06:16.forces cannot compete `` Mariupol. The separatists seem able to call on
:06:17. > :06:24.extra firepower. It depends on the spirit. 300 Spartans couldn't
:06:25. > :06:30.compete with the army of Dareus the great. But, they did what they did
:06:31. > :06:34.and we believe in our army. We know that we are on our land and we have
:06:35. > :06:41.nowhere to retreat. We have to fight back. Russians are on our land, they
:06:42. > :06:46.are the aggressors and they are slowly starting to realise that
:06:47. > :06:49.their role here is very doubtful. President Poroshenko in Brussels,
:06:50. > :06:54.speaking with EU leaders a few days ago said, I think we are close to
:06:55. > :07:01.the point of no return and that point of no return is full scale
:07:02. > :07:03.war. Is that something that you and other senior officials inside the
:07:04. > :07:10.key of government are now planning for, full`scale war between your
:07:11. > :07:18.country and Russia? It certainly is a possibility that we won't exclude
:07:19. > :07:23.under current circumstances. We are in a surreal situation right now
:07:24. > :07:29.because we say openly that Russia is conducting a war on Ukraine. But, we
:07:30. > :07:37.are avoiding the formulation that Ukraine is at war with Russia. So,
:07:38. > :07:44.it is a kind of diplomatic strange thing. But, we cannot afford right
:07:45. > :07:49.now to declare war on Russia and give them the pretext to basically
:07:50. > :07:55.send in brigade by brigade by brigade. How intimidated are you by
:07:56. > :08:00.the words of Vladimir Putin? It is reported that he said to Jose Manuel
:08:01. > :08:05.Flores so, the outgoing EU commission chief, I could take Kiev
:08:06. > :08:15.in two weeks if I wanted to `` Baroso. Are you fearful when you
:08:16. > :08:22.hear that message? I am not fearful. But, we are aware of how grave this
:08:23. > :08:27.situation is and we are still hopeful that the West will help us
:08:28. > :08:32.not only with words or sanctions, as important as they are, but in other
:08:33. > :08:38.ways that are obviously very important when a nation fight a
:08:39. > :08:41.war, especially with such a hateful and powerful enemy as Russia. You
:08:42. > :08:49.are one of Ukraine's top diplomats. You tell me what Ukraine makes of
:08:50. > :08:53.Western responses in recent days since we have seen the ratcheting up
:08:54. > :08:57.of separatist military operations in the east, the new southern front
:08:58. > :09:01.opening up, and EU Summit that we have had, which talked about
:09:02. > :09:05.expanded sanctions but did not deliver and said they would talk
:09:06. > :09:11.again over the following week to decide exactly what to do. You tell
:09:12. > :09:18.me what you make of that response. Well, I won't hide from you some
:09:19. > :09:24.messages that came from the summit were disappointing. To hear the
:09:25. > :09:30.words that we don't see a military solution to the conflict and won't
:09:31. > :09:36.supply Ukraine with weapons. It sounds good with Western audiences,
:09:37. > :09:41.but the thing is that the other side does believe in the military option.
:09:42. > :09:45.And, the other side has no scruples whatsoever to send in troops, to
:09:46. > :09:53.supply troops, to supply regular Army. This particular point was
:09:54. > :09:58.disappointing. Hang on, I have got to stop you there because you have
:09:59. > :10:01.opened up a new split with your own president. Petro Poroshenko has said
:10:02. > :10:08.in the past he does not believe that Europe or the West should supply
:10:09. > :10:14.arms to your forces and you seem to be suggesting that they should. What
:10:15. > :10:22.is Ukraine's real position? He said that Europe shouldn't supply the
:10:23. > :10:26.troops. That is our position. We don't expect troops, but we expect
:10:27. > :10:36.the equipment, we expect the military equipment. Right now, every
:10:37. > :10:42.soldier, I am sorry, every drunk in those areas, those troubled areas of
:10:43. > :10:47.Ukraine, is armed by Russia. Every person has a Kalashnikov in his
:10:48. > :10:56.hands. And, we are running out of weapons here. For instance, we are
:10:57. > :11:00.rather low on aircraft right now because Russia is so generous with
:11:01. > :11:07.supplying these so`called separatists. This is what the
:11:08. > :11:10.President was talking about. OK, so you do want arms, the problem is
:11:11. > :11:14.that the Europeans are divided on this and while you have the support
:11:15. > :11:18.of some European member states of the EU, that is I am thinking of the
:11:19. > :11:25.Lithuanian president who did say that we need to help Ukraine defend
:11:26. > :11:30.itself sending military materials. Your problem is that, rather more
:11:31. > :11:36.significant EU leaders starting with Angela Merkel, say, quoting her, we
:11:37. > :11:39.shouldn't create the impression that with weapons shipments and
:11:40. > :11:43.strengthening the Ukrainian army, we could create a solution. She simply
:11:44. > :11:50.does not see that as being in any way helpful. She also should be
:11:51. > :11:56.worried about not creating an impression that Europe gives up on a
:11:57. > :12:02.country who chose democracy and freedom and now is getting punished
:12:03. > :12:07.for it by a country that hates Ukrainian freedom and free Ukrainian
:12:08. > :12:14.democracy. I would strongly advise if Europe, the EU, because of major
:12:15. > :12:20.misjudgement, because of the fear of Putin, for whatever reasons, or just
:12:21. > :12:29.in the desire to have a successful recession in the economy, would give
:12:30. > :12:33.up on Ukraine, would let Russiasplit and dismember Ukraine.
:12:34. > :12:40.This will port Europe for ever. This would be the beginning of the moral
:12:41. > :12:45.decay for the European idea. This is the only wart right now in the last
:12:46. > :12:52.12 years that is purely about democracy and freedom. This is not
:12:53. > :12:55.Afghanistan, this is not Iraq, were economic interests and energy is
:12:56. > :13:00.involved. This is not Mali, this is not Kosovo where ethnic tensions
:13:01. > :13:05.play a role. This is about Ukraine's choice for democracy and
:13:06. > :13:08.freedom. And, Russia's attempt to punish Ukraine for this choice. You
:13:09. > :13:11.used a classic diplomatic work, you said you were disappointed with what
:13:12. > :13:16.you have recently heard from EU leaders. I wonder, let's forget the
:13:17. > :13:20.diplomatic language and be honest with each other, how far would you
:13:21. > :13:25.go, for example, Senator John McCain in the US are the Western response,
:13:26. > :13:28.the inability of the West to stand up to Vladimir Putin has been, to
:13:29. > :13:34.use his work, laughable. What word would you use?
:13:35. > :13:44.One word was disappointing. That is the `` diplomat speak. I want you to
:13:45. > :13:48.be honest. Beyond disappointed, how on negativity you feel about the
:13:49. > :13:52.leadership that has come from the EU and Washington since this crisis got
:13:53. > :14:05.so much worse, just a couple of weeks ago? One word would be weak.
:14:06. > :14:08.The West looks really weak, especially in the face of a nation
:14:09. > :14:19.that is power drunk, and nuclear nation. The West looks week and
:14:20. > :14:25.decadent. `` weak. I am running out of words, sorry. For a diplomat to
:14:26. > :14:29.say that is interesting in itself. What is also interesting, at the
:14:30. > :14:34.same time as your condemnation of what you see from the Western
:14:35. > :14:39.powers, your Prime Minister makes something of a U`turn and suddenly
:14:40. > :14:44.declares that Ukraine is now very eager to be a full member of Nato.
:14:45. > :14:49.It seems odd that on the one hand you condemn what you hear it out of
:14:50. > :14:53.Nato member state and of the other hand you are trying to convince Nato
:14:54. > :14:58.to let you join as a full member. Absolutely. There is no
:14:59. > :15:06.contradiction whatsoever. Just look at the situation. It's very simple.
:15:07. > :15:10.There are two groups in the country. One that can get attacked by Russia
:15:11. > :15:16.and one that can't. The first one is a Nato member. The second is non`
:15:17. > :15:20.Nato members. If you want to be the first group the logic is simple. But
:15:21. > :15:27.it wasn't simple a few months ago, when I sat down with your Prime
:15:28. > :15:33.Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Kiev. He assured me that, despite the
:15:34. > :15:37.crisis, it was not on Ukraine's agenda to become a member or to seek
:15:38. > :15:42.meant the ship of Nato. What on earth has changed? Are you now are
:15:43. > :15:51.deliberately trying to antagonise Moscow in a deeper way? If you ask
:15:52. > :15:57.me five months ago whether I would say yes to Nato expansion and to
:15:58. > :16:01.Ukraine becoming a Nato member, I would say no. We had too much to
:16:02. > :16:12.lose with Russia. The perspective of Nato membership was too flimsy, is
:16:13. > :16:17.that the word? That's a word. It is a word that applies. Because it is
:16:18. > :16:20.flimsy. It seems Nato members have absolutely no intention of
:16:21. > :16:26.contemplating Ukraine's full membership of their organisation.
:16:27. > :16:31.But now we have nothing to lose, basically, with Russia. Because
:16:32. > :16:38.Putin has burnt all the bridges. He talks about Ukraine basically openly
:16:39. > :16:44.as a failed state. He talks about Ukraine like Hitler spoke about
:16:45. > :16:49.Poland in 1939. What should we are reaction? Appeasement? We don't
:16:50. > :16:53.believe in that any more. But unless Nato member states want to
:16:54. > :16:57.contemplate a full`fledged war between Nato and Moscow, they are
:16:58. > :17:03.going to think very hard before taking seriously any application you
:17:04. > :17:07.make for membership. Well, it's the decision you have to make. Our
:17:08. > :17:14.decision is our decision and we have been as blunt, maybe not as much as
:17:15. > :17:19.Putin, as blunt as he is with Ukraine, but we have spoken with
:17:20. > :17:22.open language. We have had enough of this situation, where we are
:17:23. > :17:28.basically I'm armed, undefended, unprotected. In 1994, we gave up the
:17:29. > :17:34.third nuclear arsenal in the world. We were a superpower. We gave it up
:17:35. > :17:40.for one reason, it was Russia, Great Britain, the US, France and China
:17:41. > :17:48.gave asked the assurances that they would project I'll integrity, our
:17:49. > :17:54.borders, our security. `` gave us. We now have nothing. We received a
:17:55. > :17:59.total betrayal in return for the third biggest nuclear arsenal in the
:18:00. > :18:05.world. That's our situation. Don't be surprised if we are bit angry. I
:18:06. > :18:11.appreciate you are a bit angry and I can sense that. But surely you have
:18:12. > :18:15.to be a realist. Russia is always going to be a massive power on your
:18:16. > :18:21.eastern border. Russia isn't going anywhere and, in the end, rather
:18:22. > :18:24.than making the symbolic gestures, saying you want to be a part of
:18:25. > :18:29.Nato, which is a breadline for Moscow and it would never allow it
:18:30. > :18:34.to happen, wouldn't it be wiser and more sensible for you and your
:18:35. > :18:46.colleagues to get serious about a real dialogue? `` a bread line. Real
:18:47. > :18:59.diplomacy? That's very difficult. It's very difficult to conduct
:19:00. > :19:06.negotiations with the nation that calls Ukraine the formerly known
:19:07. > :19:09.Ukraine, to a nation that spokes openly about Ukraine's
:19:10. > :19:13.dismemberment. It would be wiser, instead of convincing Ukraine that
:19:14. > :19:20.it should give up and be more fearful in the face of Russia, the
:19:21. > :19:25.West should speak to Russia and speak to Putin and say, if you don't
:19:26. > :19:32.want Ukraine to become a Nato member, if you don't want Ukraine to
:19:33. > :19:38.be really difficult partner for you in the decades to come, then change
:19:39. > :19:41.your attitude. But if we just get serious about what you might be
:19:42. > :19:44.talking about at the moment, and of course you and your colleagues have
:19:45. > :19:47.had meetings with the Russians recently and I believe there will be
:19:48. > :19:57.more meetings to come, the question is what you are prepared to talk
:19:58. > :20:02.about. The Russian UN envoy says, where is the inclusive, national
:20:03. > :20:06.dialogue that was promised by Kiev? The constitutional reforms? The
:20:07. > :20:10.decentralisation of authority? Special status for the Russian
:20:11. > :20:15.language? The Russians don't believe you are serious about giving
:20:16. > :20:19.recognition to these special `` to the special status of those people
:20:20. > :20:26.in eastern Ukraine who are currently fighting for separation. About the
:20:27. > :20:31.meeting in Minsk, you know the facts. The president of Russia
:20:32. > :20:41.smiled at our president, shook hands, spoke about his and stood
:20:42. > :20:44.up. `` about peace. The chair he was sitting on was still warm when he
:20:45. > :20:48.ordered the tanks to roll in. Bear with us if we are bit sceptical
:20:49. > :20:55.about whatever signals come from Russia. About the signals coming
:20:56. > :21:04.from Russia, including this constant complaining by the UN envoy, until
:21:05. > :21:07.recently the Prime Minister of the so`called Donetsk People's
:21:08. > :21:12.Republic, that was a Russian citizen. He came on the orders of
:21:13. > :21:22.the Russian government to start this turmoil. You know who the Defence
:21:23. > :21:32.Minister was? He refers to himself as a Russian citizen, a big friend
:21:33. > :21:41.of the man who also can disturb the turmoil. So, basically, who are we
:21:42. > :21:49.supposed to talk to? Never mind that. It is an unbelievable tragedy
:21:50. > :21:54.that has been brought onto us. We are almost out of time. We are where
:21:55. > :21:58.we are. Some believe the only possible outcome in this situation
:21:59. > :22:02.is for Ukraine to accept a formula perhaps like in Bosnia, where the
:22:03. > :22:06.Republic has a huge amount of autonomy within a sovereign Bosnia.
:22:07. > :22:12.Would you be prepared to accept that sort of solution in eastern Ukraine.
:22:13. > :22:16.`` eastern Ukraine? I will tell you what we are not prepared to accept,
:22:17. > :22:22.dismemberment of Ukraine. We are prepared to speak to Russians,
:22:23. > :22:27.Russian citizens, or to the people who have Ukrainian blood on their
:22:28. > :22:38.hands. Other than that, I'm not entitled to discuss any options but
:22:39. > :22:43.I wouldn't be surprised if people in Kiev were very wary to any
:22:44. > :22:48.reasonable suggestions coming right now. When Vladimir Putin says
:22:49. > :22:52.statehood for eastern Ukraine has to be one option on the negotiating
:22:53. > :23:01.table, what do you say to that? Well, he rephrased his words
:23:02. > :23:09.afterwards and said the forms of statehood, the issues related to
:23:10. > :23:13.statehood. It wasn't as director. I don't want to justify Putin but in
:23:14. > :23:19.that particular case maybe he just blurted out something that was on
:23:20. > :23:24.his mind but not the official line of the nation. Finally, you are a
:23:25. > :23:29.diplomat, not an economist, but you know better than me that the IMF
:23:30. > :23:34.says your economy will contract by at least 6.5% this year. Your
:23:35. > :23:37.currency is down 6% against the dollar and your own Prime Minister
:23:38. > :23:42.says you are losing economic potential by the day. Ukraine cannot
:23:43. > :23:50.afford for this crisis to continue the way it has been going. Ukraine
:23:51. > :23:55.couldn't afford this war in the first place, in March or April, and
:23:56. > :24:00.it can't afford it in September. We are in a position where we have no
:24:01. > :24:09.other option. But I just want to appeal to Europe. I know your
:24:10. > :24:12.audience is enormous. Europe cannot afford to let Russia dismember
:24:13. > :24:17.Ukraine. This would be a huge blow to Europe. Ukraine is fighting
:24:18. > :24:25.Europe's war, not only the Ukrainian law. This war is about democracy and
:24:26. > :24:27.freedom. `` war. Thank you for joining me from Kiev.
:24:28. > :24:55.Thank you. The top temperature on Tuesday was
:24:56. > :24:56.recorded