0:00:01 > 0:00:04Now on BBC News, HARDtalk.
0:00:09 > 0:00:13Welcome to HARDtalk, I'm Stephen Sackur.
0:00:13 > 0:00:17The British referendum on whether to stay in or leave
0:00:17 > 0:00:21the European Union may well be held this coming summer.
0:00:21 > 0:00:23It will be a vote of momentous significance for Britain,
0:00:23 > 0:00:26and for the EU.
0:00:26 > 0:00:30The polls suggest it could be a close run thing.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33My guest today is Lord Lawson, president of the Conservatives
0:00:33 > 0:00:36for Britain group, which is campaigning for a British
0:00:36 > 0:00:39exit, in defiance of Prime Minister David Cameron
0:00:39 > 0:00:42and his Conservative Government's official strategy.
0:00:42 > 0:00:46The Eurosceptics have an historic opportunity.
0:00:46 > 0:00:49Can they seize it?
0:01:14 > 0:01:17Lord Lawson, welcome to HARDtalk.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20Thank you.
0:01:20 > 0:01:25Was your decision to back a British exit from the European Union an easy
0:01:25 > 0:01:28decision or a pretty tough decision for you to reach?
0:01:28 > 0:01:31Well, obviously it was a tough decision in the sense that it's
0:01:31 > 0:01:34a very complicated issue, and it needs to be thoroughly
0:01:34 > 0:01:35thought through.
0:01:35 > 0:01:39But once I had thoroughly thought it through, and I have been doing
0:01:39 > 0:01:42so over a long period, I'd come to a very clear conclusion
0:01:42 > 0:01:46that we would be better off outside the EU, for a number of reasons
0:01:46 > 0:01:49which I can explain.
0:01:49 > 0:01:51Well, we will go through some of the detail.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54I'm interested in your mindset.
0:01:54 > 0:01:57I think back to 1975 and that first British referendum
0:01:57 > 0:01:59about whether to stay in what was then called the Common
0:01:59 > 0:02:02Market.
0:02:02 > 0:02:04You at that point were quite clear that you believed
0:02:04 > 0:02:07it was in Britain's interest to be in.
0:02:07 > 0:02:10Yes, at that time I did in the referendum vote in favour
0:02:10 > 0:02:13of staying in.
0:02:13 > 0:02:17I didn't campaign at that time, even though I was a member
0:02:17 > 0:02:20of Parliament, because I did have some reservations.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23But I felt that, on balance, it was better to stay in.
0:02:23 > 0:02:25But, of course, the whole thing has changed very considerably
0:02:25 > 0:02:28in two important ways.
0:02:28 > 0:02:33First of all, even in the 1970s - or, certainly, the 1960s -
0:02:33 > 0:02:37I was still concerned about a recrudescence
0:02:37 > 0:02:40of German militarism.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43We had already suffered through two world wars,
0:02:43 > 0:02:47and I was alive and survived and remembered the Second World War.
0:02:47 > 0:02:49And it was important that there should not be a third
0:02:49 > 0:02:52world war started by Germany.
0:02:52 > 0:02:56Well, that's still important... That's no longer a risk.
0:02:56 > 0:03:01Germany suffered horribly as a result of the Second World War
0:03:01 > 0:03:04and the defeat in the Second World War, which was a terrible defeat...
0:03:04 > 0:03:07Well, Germany and German nationalism may not be
0:03:07 > 0:03:10a risk, but...
0:03:10 > 0:03:13Insofar as they have ambitions, they are economic ambitions,
0:03:13 > 0:03:16they are not military ambitions.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19And, anyhow, we have Nato, the Nato alliance which they are part of.
0:03:20 > 0:03:23So that's not a reason.
0:03:23 > 0:03:28And then the European Union has moved on and it's particularly moved
0:03:28 > 0:03:31on with the creation of the euro as the currency for most
0:03:31 > 0:03:34of the European Union countries, and the Eurozone, which makes up
0:03:34 > 0:03:37that basket of countries which we are, quite rightly,
0:03:37 > 0:03:40not a part of.
0:03:40 > 0:03:49So we are already, in a sense, half out.
0:03:49 > 0:03:52And this has greatly diminished what little influence we ever had.
0:03:52 > 0:03:55There are a number of other grounds, but there is a strong case for us
0:03:55 > 0:03:57being wholly out.
0:03:57 > 0:04:01So if your proposition is the power of Brussels has run far too far,
0:04:01 > 0:04:04much further than was ever, perhaps, dreamt possible in 1975,
0:04:04 > 0:04:08if that's your fundamental case, why not wait until David Cameron has
0:04:08 > 0:04:13delivered on what he has promised, which is a significant renegotiation
0:04:13 > 0:04:16of the settlement between Britain and the European Union?
0:04:16 > 0:04:20That is precisely why, he says, the British public should trust him,
0:04:20 > 0:04:24because he can win back significant powers, put those before the people
0:04:24 > 0:04:28as part of the referendum package?
0:04:28 > 0:04:32He hasn't even asked for significant powers to come back.
0:04:32 > 0:04:35I think the reason he hasn't asked for them is because he knows
0:04:35 > 0:04:38he would not get that.
0:04:38 > 0:04:41What he has asked for, and we all know what he has asked
0:04:41 > 0:04:45for, it is public knowledge, it is nugatory, insignificant,
0:04:45 > 0:04:49piffling, it makes absolutely no difference.
0:04:49 > 0:04:53So the idea that somehow he is going to produce a reformed
0:04:53 > 0:04:55European Union, it is not...
0:04:55 > 0:04:59With respect, if I can interrupt for just a second,
0:04:59 > 0:05:02you, with respect, had decided that this political game was lost
0:05:02 > 0:05:05before a ball had been kicked, because you declared that whatever
0:05:05 > 0:05:08Cameron achieved in this quote unquote renegotiation
0:05:08 > 0:05:11would be entirely unacceptable.
0:05:11 > 0:05:14No, I didn't say that.
0:05:14 > 0:05:17I said that unless there is a fundamental reform
0:05:17 > 0:05:19of the European Union, we should leave.
0:05:19 > 0:05:23And then when he wrote his letter to President Tusk
0:05:23 > 0:05:26of the European Council setting out his four demands,
0:05:26 > 0:05:32none of them amounted to a row of beans.
0:05:32 > 0:05:35To be clear, for people who don't know what those four demands are,
0:05:35 > 0:05:39to run through perhaps the headline ones, he's fighting for -
0:05:39 > 0:05:43and it looks as though he may well win - a curtailing of EU migrants
0:05:43 > 0:05:46to Britain access to benefits for four years, that is what he says
0:05:46 > 0:05:50is very important, both in work and out of work benefits,
0:05:50 > 0:05:53EU citizens who come to the UK will not be able to claim those
0:05:53 > 0:05:55benefits for four years.
0:05:55 > 0:05:58It's been controversial, but it looks as though he may
0:05:58 > 0:06:01well win that.
0:06:01 > 0:06:04He may well also win a British opt-out from this idea that Europe
0:06:04 > 0:06:07is moving toward an ever closer union.
0:06:07 > 0:06:09Are those nugatory, as you say?
0:06:09 > 0:06:13They are, and let me explain to you why.
0:06:13 > 0:06:17He is absolutely right to have something in his demands,
0:06:17 > 0:06:20as you put them, on immigration from the European Union,
0:06:20 > 0:06:23but what we need is to have control of our own borders.
0:06:23 > 0:06:27And we don't have control of our own borders,
0:06:27 > 0:06:33and we won't have control of our own borders even if the people coming
0:06:33 > 0:06:39from Europe have to wait four years before getting in-work benefits.
0:06:39 > 0:06:41They don't come here for in-work benefits,
0:06:41 > 0:06:44they come here to work, and to work because the conditions
0:06:44 > 0:06:46are better and, indeed, where benefits come in,
0:06:46 > 0:06:49much less important...
0:06:49 > 0:06:51So you're saying that your red line would be the fundamental principle
0:06:52 > 0:06:54of freedom of movement?
0:06:54 > 0:06:57The fundamental principle of control of our own borders.
0:06:57 > 0:07:00I'm in favour of a liberal immigration policy, I think
0:07:00 > 0:07:03we benefit, but I think we should decide on who we allow
0:07:03 > 0:07:05in and who we don't.
0:07:05 > 0:07:07And, at the present time, we don't.
0:07:07 > 0:07:14And we certainly don't, even if he gets his four-year
0:07:14 > 0:07:20stoppage, delay, in in-work benefits.
0:07:20 > 0:07:23And there are plenty of people who are not on my side of the debate
0:07:23 > 0:07:26who are experts in the immigration field, and they have all said
0:07:26 > 0:07:29that it would make no significant difference whatever to the level
0:07:29 > 0:07:31of immigration from the European Union into this country.
0:07:31 > 0:07:33As for the other thing you mentioned, if I may,
0:07:34 > 0:07:37because you raised it...
0:07:37 > 0:07:40The closer union and the opt out.
0:07:40 > 0:07:44He is again right to say that ever closer union is a crucial element.
0:07:44 > 0:07:47Ever closer union means the move towards a political union,
0:07:47 > 0:07:50a full-blooded political union, a United States of Europe.
0:07:50 > 0:07:53That is what the European Union is all about.
0:07:53 > 0:07:58We don't share that.
0:07:58 > 0:08:02And the problem with just getting a British opt-out
0:08:02 > 0:08:05is that the European Union will continue to legislate
0:08:05 > 0:08:09towards a full-blooded political union, and we will not be able
0:08:09 > 0:08:13to stop that at all.
0:08:13 > 0:08:16We might have an opt-out, but that is just a form of words.
0:08:16 > 0:08:19We will still be liable to all the legislation they produce
0:08:19 > 0:08:22to that end.
0:08:22 > 0:08:25If he could have got the European Union as a whole
0:08:25 > 0:08:28to resile from the objective of ever closer union,
0:08:28 > 0:08:30that would have meant something.
0:08:30 > 0:08:34But a UK opt-out means nothing at all.
0:08:34 > 0:08:36I hear your analysis, it seems, though, that most British voters
0:08:36 > 0:08:39don't share it.
0:08:39 > 0:08:43A recent survey by YouGov of Tory voters in the UK found that more
0:08:43 > 0:08:46than 60% of them are saying they will base their final vote,
0:08:46 > 0:08:51in or out, only after they have seen what David Cameron has negotiated,
0:08:51 > 0:08:54ie they are very interested to see what he can deliver,
0:08:54 > 0:08:58unlike you, who have already decided you are not interested
0:08:58 > 0:09:00because you don't think it is significant.
0:09:00 > 0:09:03I have followed the thing more closely, perhaps,
0:09:03 > 0:09:06than most British voters, and I have studied the letter
0:09:06 > 0:09:08and the demands he made to President Tusk.
0:09:08 > 0:09:12I don't know how many of the voters have.
0:09:12 > 0:09:18I think most of the voters are very sensibly saying "We find this
0:09:18 > 0:09:22we will make up our minds when he comes back."
0:09:22 > 0:09:25That's fair enough.
0:09:25 > 0:09:28But when he does come back, and when there is exposure
0:09:28 > 0:09:31and analysis by you and all sorts of people about what he actually
0:09:31 > 0:09:36comes back with, then they will make up their mind,
0:09:36 > 0:09:39and I hope, nobody knows what the result of the referendum
0:09:39 > 0:09:42will be, it is unpredictable, but I very much hope
0:09:42 > 0:09:44they will conclude that we are better off out.
0:09:44 > 0:09:48There are three reasons for that, very briefly.
0:09:48 > 0:09:52One is that we do not share the objective of political union
0:09:52 > 0:09:57of a United States of Europe, two is that it's economically
0:09:57 > 0:10:00damaging to us, and three is that it is profoundly undemocratic.
0:10:00 > 0:10:05And, as a country, we have an addiction to democracy.
0:10:05 > 0:10:08Do you find it awkward that you, as a very senior Conservative voice
0:10:08 > 0:10:11are, in effect, rubbishing the strategy of the leader
0:10:11 > 0:10:14of your party and, indeed, the leader of the country?
0:10:14 > 0:10:18No, the strategy of the Government is to have a referendum,
0:10:18 > 0:10:22and then people can take one side or the other.
0:10:22 > 0:10:25But more specifically Cameron's strategy is to say,
0:10:25 > 0:10:28"Look, trust me, I can negotiate a better deal for Britain
0:10:28 > 0:10:30and I will put that before the people."
0:10:30 > 0:10:34And you are saying, "Nonsense, the basis for your negotiation
0:10:34 > 0:10:38is entirely irrelevant to the issue."
0:10:38 > 0:10:42So you're rubbishing his strategy.
0:10:42 > 0:10:46I'm not rubbishing his strategy. He has gone fishing.
0:10:46 > 0:10:49And he will catch whatever fish he can.
0:10:49 > 0:10:52My guess, and we shall see, my guess is that all he will
0:10:52 > 0:10:55catch is tiddlers.
0:10:55 > 0:10:58And so the huge objections, the lack of self-government
0:10:58 > 0:11:01that we have in this country, to an increasing extent,
0:11:01 > 0:11:04the huge objections will not be overcome.
0:11:04 > 0:11:07Just a quick point on the handling of the issue in political terms,
0:11:07 > 0:11:09inside the government and the Conservative Party
0:11:09 > 0:11:12in particular, Mr Cameron just in the last few days has written
0:11:12 > 0:11:16a letter to ministers, saying to ministers,
0:11:16 > 0:11:19"Look, I've decided for those of you who have long-term sincerely
0:11:19 > 0:11:27held doubts about the European Union, I'm going to allow
0:11:27 > 0:11:30policy, ie, to that extent, it's a free vote.
0:11:30 > 0:11:33But you are not going to be able to express any opinion before
0:11:33 > 0:11:36I finish this renegotiation and, even then, you are not to say
0:11:36 > 0:11:39anything from the front bench in terms of your capacities
0:11:39 > 0:11:40as a minister.
0:11:40 > 0:11:43You've got to do it from the backbenches
0:11:43 > 0:11:45as an individual."
0:11:45 > 0:11:49What do you think of the way Cameron is setting the rules for the debate?
0:11:49 > 0:11:52I think it's very sensible of him to say that Cabinet ministers
0:11:52 > 0:11:56and other ministers can campaign on both sides.
0:11:56 > 0:11:59There were a lot of people who said, no, he shouldn't allow them,
0:11:59 > 0:12:03or he should say you can only do it if you resign from the Government.
0:12:03 > 0:12:07He has quite rightly decided to follow the precedent
0:12:07 > 0:12:10which was set in the previous referendum in 1975, and to allow
0:12:10 > 0:12:12ministers to remain within the Government
0:12:12 > 0:12:14but still campaign on both sides.
0:12:14 > 0:12:17It is for the British people to decide.
0:12:17 > 0:12:19It is not a question of speaking from the backbenches,
0:12:19 > 0:12:22they will be out in the country campaigning.
0:12:22 > 0:12:24It's a pretty chaotic picture, isn't it?
0:12:24 > 0:12:27Ken Clarke, who is on the opposite side of the fence from you,
0:12:27 > 0:12:30he is one of the most inveterate pro-Europeans
0:12:30 > 0:12:32in the Conservative Party, he says that collective unity
0:12:32 > 0:12:35is collapsing in the Cameron Government and that Cameron
0:12:35 > 0:12:38was forced into this decision to allow a free vote.
0:12:38 > 0:12:40Is that the way you see it?
0:12:40 > 0:12:43No, I see him as sensibly basing himself on the precedent set
0:12:43 > 0:12:47in the previous referendum in 1975.
0:12:47 > 0:12:49Look, the Conservative Government and the Conservative Party is united
0:12:50 > 0:12:53on pretty well everything.
0:12:53 > 0:12:55There is a great division on whether we should be
0:12:55 > 0:12:58in the European Union or better off outside it,
0:12:58 > 0:13:00and I believe better off outside it.
0:13:00 > 0:13:04And that, I think, reflects views in the country at large.
0:13:04 > 0:13:08Irrespective of party political things, there are divisions.
0:13:08 > 0:13:11So what you want is for...
0:13:11 > 0:13:14Once the referendum is over and the result is declared,
0:13:14 > 0:13:17the party will then completely come together again.
0:13:17 > 0:13:19And you don't want...
0:13:19 > 0:13:22Can I stop you there, I have one specific question
0:13:22 > 0:13:26on that, and then we'll get to the detail of how you think
0:13:26 > 0:13:29Britain can get out of the EU.
0:13:29 > 0:13:32But on the specific question if there is a victory for the no
0:13:32 > 0:13:34camp, David Cameron says "I'm going to stay Prime Minister
0:13:35 > 0:13:37come what may."
0:13:37 > 0:13:40Many in the party think that is extraordinarily unrealistic.
0:13:40 > 0:13:43What do you think? That's his right.
0:13:43 > 0:13:46He is entitled to stay if he wishes to.
0:13:46 > 0:13:48Of course he's entitled to. Could he credibly?
0:13:48 > 0:13:52I think he could, yes. I think he could.
0:13:52 > 0:13:54But it's a matter which will have to be...
0:13:54 > 0:13:58He will have to take a view of and, to some extent, the party will.
0:13:58 > 0:14:01But I'm talking about the members of the House of Commons,
0:14:01 > 0:14:02and I'm not an MP any more.
0:14:02 > 0:14:04I was once.
0:14:04 > 0:14:08He will have to decide, and they will have to decide,
0:14:08 > 0:14:11and there's no reason on earth why he should have to resign...
0:14:11 > 0:14:13Except that his credibility will be shot.
0:14:13 > 0:14:16No, it won't. His credibility would not be shot.
0:14:16 > 0:14:19He would have lost a particular battle.
0:14:19 > 0:14:21That doesn't mean his credibility is gone.
0:14:21 > 0:14:24The most important battle of his premiership, arguably
0:14:24 > 0:14:27of a generation in British politics.
0:14:27 > 0:14:31It's a very important matter indeed. It's a hugely important issue.
0:14:31 > 0:14:36But as to whether he will resign or not if we vote...
0:14:36 > 0:14:40If we the British people vote in favour of leaving
0:14:40 > 0:14:43the European Union, then that is a matter for him,
0:14:43 > 0:14:46and you should have him on this programme and interview him
0:14:46 > 0:14:49and ask him about it.
0:14:49 > 0:14:52We would love that opportunity, and we will pursue it.
0:14:52 > 0:14:55Let's now get to the detail of what a no vote would mean.
0:14:55 > 0:15:00It would mean, would it not, years, many years of uncertainty,
0:15:00 > 0:15:03chaos and confusion as Britain tries to divorce itself,
0:15:04 > 0:15:08disentangle itself from the EU?
0:15:08 > 0:15:11It's a complicated process, but it wouldn't be chaos
0:15:11 > 0:15:15and confusion, and it could be done perfectly well,
0:15:15 > 0:15:20but it is a complicated process, you are absolutely right.
0:15:20 > 0:15:23But what we have to do is to decide what is in the best interests
0:15:23 > 0:15:28of the British people.
0:15:28 > 0:15:31Is it remaining in the European Union, which is a political
0:15:31 > 0:15:34project, it's not an economic project, it's a political project
0:15:34 > 0:15:37whose objective is one we don't share, it is economically damaging.
0:15:37 > 0:15:40It's not surprising that it's not economically beneficial,
0:15:40 > 0:15:43because it's not an economic project.
0:15:43 > 0:15:45But how long would it take?
0:15:45 > 0:15:49The Lisbon Treaty has an article in it which suggests it could be
0:15:49 > 0:15:51achieved within two years, but anybody who knows anything
0:15:51 > 0:15:54about the EU thinks that's extraordinarily unlikely.
0:15:54 > 0:15:57Greenland, when it tried to divorce itself from the EU even though
0:15:57 > 0:16:00it was part of sovereign Denmark, that took three years to achieve,
0:16:00 > 0:16:02and that's for a population of fewer than 100,000 people.
0:16:02 > 0:16:05The treaty does say two years, and there's no reason why it
0:16:05 > 0:16:07shouldn't be done in two years.
0:16:07 > 0:16:09You seriously think it could be done in two years?
0:16:09 > 0:16:11Absolutely.
0:16:11 > 0:16:14And there is no reason there should be any confusion and chaos
0:16:14 > 0:16:17during that period.
0:16:17 > 0:16:20There seem to be all sorts of reasons, not least the trade
0:16:20 > 0:16:23union between the UK and the EU, that would have to be completely
0:16:23 > 0:16:25reconfigured for a Britain that was no longer a part
0:16:26 > 0:16:30of the union.
0:16:30 > 0:16:3350% or more of Britain's trade is done with the European Union.
0:16:33 > 0:16:35That in itself, just one aspect aside from immigration rules,
0:16:35 > 0:16:37migration rules, anything else, would be hugely
0:16:37 > 0:16:40complex to disentangle.
0:16:40 > 0:16:43First of all, it's not 50%, it's under 50%.
0:16:43 > 0:16:47And it is only 15% of our total economy is concerned...
0:16:47 > 0:16:50Oh, only? 15%.
0:16:50 > 0:16:54The word "only" surprises me. Let me conclude, if I may.
0:16:54 > 0:16:58It is about sales to the rest of the European Union.
0:16:58 > 0:17:02And, of course, being outside the European Union doesn't stop
0:17:02 > 0:17:06you selling to the European Union.
0:17:06 > 0:17:09Trade, indeed, between the European Union and countries
0:17:09 > 0:17:11outside it has been latterly growing faster than trade
0:17:11 > 0:17:15within the European Union.
0:17:15 > 0:17:18You seem to believe that Britain can disentangle itself,
0:17:18 > 0:17:22can then develop bilateral trade relations with a host of countries,
0:17:22 > 0:17:25really important countries, which it currently trades
0:17:25 > 0:17:29with as a member state of the EU, with an EU trade deal
0:17:29 > 0:17:31with said country.
0:17:31 > 0:17:34You seem to think all of this can be done in two years,
0:17:34 > 0:17:39a whole host of experts in trade policy think you are plain wrong.
0:17:39 > 0:17:43We would continue initially exactly on the same basis
0:17:43 > 0:17:47until the conclusion of the settlement.
0:17:47 > 0:17:52So there would be no chaos, no confusion and, indeed,
0:17:52 > 0:17:56the fortunate thing is that the common external tariff
0:17:56 > 0:18:00of the European Union anyhow is very small.
0:18:00 > 0:18:02But they will want a deal.
0:18:02 > 0:18:05They will want a deal much more than we do,
0:18:05 > 0:18:09because the British market is hugely important to them.
0:18:09 > 0:18:13The British market is as important to them as the American market is.
0:18:13 > 0:18:16But they are going to maintain their rules,
0:18:16 > 0:18:18and if we are prepared to play by their rules, that's fine.
0:18:18 > 0:18:21But we will have to if we want to continue our trading
0:18:21 > 0:18:24relationships with them.
0:18:24 > 0:18:27Look at Norway, for example. No, that's a complete confusion.
0:18:27 > 0:18:30It is not a confusion that Norway, for example, is part
0:18:30 > 0:18:32of the European Economic Area.
0:18:32 > 0:18:35Although it's not a member and has no say in EU regulations
0:18:35 > 0:18:38and policies, it has to abide by them.
0:18:38 > 0:18:41And we would be just the same if we were in a position like
0:18:41 > 0:18:43Norway's.
0:18:43 > 0:18:47If you're in the European Economic Area, then you have to accept this
0:18:47 > 0:18:51huge burden of EU regulation over the whole of your economy,
0:18:51 > 0:18:55over companies that don't do any trade with European Union at all,
0:18:55 > 0:18:58companies which may trade a lot of countries outside
0:18:58 > 0:19:01the European Union.
0:19:01 > 0:19:04If you're going to trade within the European Union,
0:19:04 > 0:19:07then for trade within the European Union you would have
0:19:07 > 0:19:09to accept European Union regulation.
0:19:09 > 0:19:15The Americans, when they export to the European Union,
0:19:15 > 0:19:17for their exports to the European Union, have to accept
0:19:17 > 0:19:19European Union regulations.
0:19:19 > 0:19:22But they do not have to accept it over the whole of their economy,
0:19:22 > 0:19:24and nor would we.
0:19:24 > 0:19:27Does it worry you that, internationally, I'm thinking
0:19:27 > 0:19:30from the words of Barack Obama to the words of the Chinese
0:19:30 > 0:19:34leadership, the message from the key players in the global economy,
0:19:34 > 0:19:39global politics, is "We can't understand why Britain want to leave
0:19:39 > 0:19:41a bloc which gives Britain power, and without being in the bloc,
0:19:41 > 0:19:44Britain doesn't have that voice and power?"
0:19:44 > 0:19:47It doesn't give Britain power at all.
0:19:47 > 0:19:50Not only within Europe are we disadvantaged
0:19:50 > 0:19:53because the Eurozone countries have an in-built qualified majority,
0:19:53 > 0:19:56so we get outvoted every time.
0:19:56 > 0:19:59But we are not allowed to do our own trade deals
0:19:59 > 0:20:02because we're not allowed to be a member of the World Trade
0:20:02 > 0:20:04Organisation.
0:20:04 > 0:20:06Switzerland, for example, which is a member...
0:20:06 > 0:20:09Do you think Barack Obama is wrong?
0:20:09 > 0:20:12Obama says, it's hard for me to imagine it could be advantageous
0:20:12 > 0:20:14for Britain to be excluded.
0:20:14 > 0:20:17I'll come to Barack Obama, who is talking as a politician...
0:20:17 > 0:20:20The most powerful man in the world who speaks for the United States.
0:20:20 > 0:20:26Let me finish this. We would do much better outside.
0:20:26 > 0:20:30Now, Barack Obama is an American, and he thinks that it is in
0:20:30 > 0:20:33America's interest that we should be in the European Union
0:20:33 > 0:20:37because he thinks that we are innately pro-American,
0:20:37 > 0:20:40and there are many people in the European Union
0:20:40 > 0:20:43who are not so pro-American.
0:20:43 > 0:20:45So he thinks we're a pro-American force within the European Union,
0:20:45 > 0:20:49therefore it would be good for America for us to be there.
0:20:49 > 0:20:52But it's not good for Britain and not good for the British people.
0:20:52 > 0:20:55Well, I tell you who debated this the other day and said something
0:20:55 > 0:20:58very interesting about whether it was good for Britain,
0:20:58 > 0:21:01William Hague, a former Conservative colleague of yours,
0:21:01 > 0:21:04a former Foreign Secretary, a man who has been sceptical
0:21:04 > 0:21:06about Europe for a long time, he came out and declared
0:21:06 > 0:21:09that he would vote to remain in the EU, and his argument
0:21:09 > 0:21:12was largely this.
0:21:12 > 0:21:14He said, "If we leave, it could end up destroying
0:21:14 > 0:21:18the United Kingdom and destroying the UK, gravely weakening
0:21:18 > 0:21:21the European Union as well would not be a very clever day's work."
0:21:21 > 0:21:25No, I heard him say that and I was astonished.
0:21:25 > 0:21:30I don't believe for a moment that it would break up the United Kingdom.
0:21:30 > 0:21:34It has been made plain by the Scottish Nationalists,
0:21:34 > 0:21:37who are overwhelmingly in the majority in Scotland today
0:21:37 > 0:21:41in terms of the political control, if the United Kingdom as a whole
0:21:41 > 0:21:43voted to leave the EU against the wishes of the vote
0:21:43 > 0:21:47in Scotland, then they would regard that as grounds for another vote
0:21:47 > 0:21:50on independence for Scotland.
0:21:50 > 0:21:53Well, first of all, they can't have another vote,
0:21:53 > 0:21:57one way or the other, another referendum about independence
0:21:57 > 0:22:00unless the British Parliament votes to have one.
0:22:00 > 0:22:03You would have a constitutional crisis at the very least.
0:22:03 > 0:22:06Secondly, of course the Scottish National party want
0:22:06 > 0:22:09independence, so they will use every argument they can think of in order
0:22:09 > 0:22:12to promote it.
0:22:12 > 0:22:15But this is not a random argument, this is a very real point.
0:22:15 > 0:22:18And the Scottish people can't have a veto over the English.
0:22:18 > 0:22:20The Scottish people are very important, but they can't
0:22:20 > 0:22:22have a veto...
0:22:22 > 0:22:26So you're prepared to drag the Scots kicking and screaming out of the EU
0:22:26 > 0:22:27against their wishes?
0:22:27 > 0:22:29It's in their interest.
0:22:29 > 0:22:32What if they, as the Scottish people, vote to stay in?
0:22:32 > 0:22:36I think there will probably one day be a referendum in Scotland,
0:22:36 > 0:22:38and I think the referendum will have the same result
0:22:38 > 0:22:41as the last one, that Scottish people, being sensible,
0:22:41 > 0:22:43will vote to remain...
0:22:43 > 0:22:45May I just...
0:22:45 > 0:22:48Can I just continue with the other part, because you have raised this,
0:22:48 > 0:22:51the other thing that William Hague said, which was absolutely
0:22:51 > 0:22:54staggering, because he said that it might well destroy
0:22:54 > 0:22:58the European Union if we leave.
0:22:58 > 0:23:00Now, if that were the case then the European Union countries
0:23:00 > 0:23:04would be begging us to remain in.
0:23:04 > 0:23:07They would be offering us whatever we wanted in order to remain in,
0:23:07 > 0:23:11to prevent the European Union from being destroyed.
0:23:11 > 0:23:14In fact, they are not prepared to make any significant changes
0:23:14 > 0:23:17whatever, which I think demonstrates very clearly that William Hague has
0:23:18 > 0:23:20got the wrong end of the stick.
0:23:20 > 0:23:24We've talked a lot about what would happen if there is a no vote,
0:23:24 > 0:23:26if your side is victorious.
0:23:26 > 0:23:30If your side loses, if the British people vote to remain
0:23:30 > 0:23:32inside the EU, will this put the argument about Britain's place
0:23:32 > 0:23:36in Europe to bed forever?
0:23:36 > 0:23:39Well, it depends on how close the result is, doesn't it?
0:23:39 > 0:23:42You mean if it's close you will just carry on campaigning to get
0:23:42 > 0:23:45Britain out?
0:23:45 > 0:23:49If it is very close and it is a close result for in,
0:23:49 > 0:23:54based on the myth that the European Union has changed,
0:23:54 > 0:23:59and then the British people find they have been conned,
0:23:59 > 0:24:03that in fact the European Union hasn't changed at all,
0:24:03 > 0:24:06our relationship to all intents and purposes with the European Union
0:24:06 > 0:24:10is the same, they will feel very bitter and there will be huge
0:24:10 > 0:24:14pressure, nothing to do with me, there will be huge pressure
0:24:14 > 0:24:16for having a second go.
0:24:16 > 0:24:18Lord Lawson, thank you for being on HARDtalk.
0:24:18 > 0:24:23Thank you so much.